now some of that is starting to be unwound the next move is still important to the market, and i also think you're starting to see distress getting into areas of the market that are more exposed to changes in rates >> okay. kara, thanks sorry to sort of be talking while you're talking but we got about five seconds >> that was fun. >> yeah, that was something. got one more left tomorrow god willing. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. equities are bid across the board as nvidia comes through as a major catalyst for tech, even with yields climbing to two-and-a-half-month highs our road map begins with nvidia's monster quarter, sending the stock up double digits premarket revenue rising more than 260% year on year ev stocks, though, moving in

reverse, shares of lucid and rivian both plunging post-results we're going to dig through those numbers. we'll talk with the ceo of mondelez on the state of the consumer and what he thinks of the president calling on snack makers to stop shrinkflation let's begin with nvidia. sales more than tripled. guidance exceeds consensus this is jensen huang on the call last night >> this last year, we've seen generative a.i. really becoming a whole new application space, a whole new way of doing computing, a whole new industry is being formed, and that's driving our growth we guide one quarter at a time, but fundamentally, the conditions are excellent for continued growth calendar '24 to '25 and beyond >> biggest single day market cap move, jim, beating meta a few weeks ago. >> yeah, it could ishould be p e

when you see a number, you realize that the stock turned out to be very cheap a year ago, and i think people have to realize, for instance, really, some amazing data of when -- of when we thought -- we thought that they were going to earn $20 at the end of the year and calendar year, i think they could now do $24.60. so, even in just six weeks ago, we thought they were going to earn $4 less than they're going to people have to understand, when you're trying to value a stock, what that says is that stock that was very expensive eight weeks ago turns out to be reasonably valued, and that matters. >> so, you don't have a problem with key going to $1,100 or bernstein going to $1,000 today? >> no, no. i think that what jensen spent a lot of time laying out when he talked about the notion -- remember, we've got two things going on we have the acceleration computing, and then we have generative a.i what he did was lay out something that people have not been willing to do, which is to say, it's not like the 386, 486

pentium 2 where the 386 is really obsolete. it's that you can use the h-100, the h-200 to do some new software there's not going to be a difficult transition, and that was important because i think a lot of people were worried there could be a gap, as is the case in a lot of technology and this is one of the great secular growth stories remember, he's using trillions he's basically saying, the whole world, everything that we have, which is just general computing, is out of date we have to redo everything if we have to redo everything, whether it be auto -- just think. he has said to me over and over again that manufacturing is by far the biggest market in the world. everything that's manufactured will also have to use his chips. >> yeah, that's why the basket of redoing old datacenters, building new datacenters, huge buckets of demand. these shorter lead times, jim, is that a sign of cooling demand >> no, not at all. it's just that finally they've got taiwan semi cooking. these things are very hard to

make they're very big and one of the things he also talked about is that there are dual uses, so if you're a cloud service provider, you want them for yourself, but you also want them for the cloud couple companies that were called out mightily, meta, called out as a monster user of their product. and i thought that was very important because i think people should realize that's inference. that's why their instagram ads are so good. called out google. called out service now service now twice saying they are -- they have developed generative a.i. in order to help work flow. the call was magnificent it was a well-orchestrated call. one my favorite cfos was a little bit more effervescent she told me that was not true, but i could detect enthusiasm from anyone. and then jensen comes in on the q&a. jensen was -- he was more ex

stravinsky than taylor swift he can be anything he wants because he may be the smartest man in the world >> the stock is certainly replaced tesla as the name that trades most dollar volume per day. >> less erratic. >> to your point about the tone last night, this is jensen huang talking about growth on the call >> generative a.i. has kicked off a whole new investment cycle to build the next trillion dollars of infrastructure, of a.i. generation factories. we believe these two trends will drive a doubling of the world's datacenter infrastructure installed base in the next five years. and will represent an annual market opportunity in the hundreds of billions >> right he's basically saying you've got a couple trillion dollar infrastructure that has to be redone there's arguably -- there's $40 t $40 trillion in manufacturing. arguably, everything has to be redone the general computing has run out. moore's law has run out.

what's happened is there's no more gain. even talked about how they're depreciating the stuff longer. this is where the money is it's 20 times faster, and yet it burns kecooler, which is importt to jensen because he's anti-waste i think there will be people, i call them luddites, these are people who wanted to destroy the loom in 1811 they descended from sherwood forest, nottingham sheriff felt perhaps it's wrong we have such a powerful loom that wipes out seamstresses by the way, one of the most powerful moments was when they talk about sonvereign a.i. it can't just be in english. every country in the world, save, perhaps, china, has to have its own jensen, its own nvidia >> that's the sovereign element has been one of his big doctrines the last few weeks help viewers understand the impact china had on datacenter in the quarter

>> well, look, he's been saying over and over, i was joking about it yesterday, he's going to say that it's great degradation. it's going to not go away, but it's going to decline substantially, but the issue there is that everybody wants them there's a tremendous amount of talk about allocation and how jensen's going to give them away fairly so, believe me, the chinese are going to -- their product will be sold. nvidia disputed this with me originally, and i said, listen, can't you mark that product up that would have gone to china? they said, look, jim, we don't do that. we don't take advantage of any customer and say, listen, china's not used them, we're going to mark them up 20%. one of the things they -- they're very close with all the customers and one of the reasons is they don't do that stuff. jensen is very close with zuckerberg i think we've actually seen -- i will go so far as to say that you're seeing a jensen influence in the way zuckerberg carries himself. because jensen is light. he's light

he is not -- i'm saying not serious. >> i think people understand >> but you see they work very closely. they are actual friends. i said, how often do you speak to mark? he said, all the time. i said, how's that possible? he stands for combat, you stand for peace, and he said, no, that's not -- that's on the surface. but there's a lot of c conviviality, congeniality >> what do you make, sort of broaden it out here, the element of mag 7 delivering on earnings in jpmorgan's words today, irrespective of the rate environment? in other words, do we need -- does the market even rely -- we got the ten-year 4.33% today >> i would go so far as a quarter of our coverage is doing a disservice to our investors. >> by paying attention to -- >> well, because it's done very good that's an extremely critical comment, and i'm not going to back down. these companies have defied rates the whole time

so, everything should have been caveated, asterisked, because the reason why my trust owns all of these is because i said these are secular growers that are not going to be impeded for the first time ever, we've got a group of elite companies we should -- look, there's -- you got 493 companies that are hostage to the rates it's fine. i'm just saying, we have to do our best to keep people in these stocks, and the reason is because they are companies that are run brilliantly. every single person who runs these companies is brilliant i might challenge the people who run google, because they did a very poor job in advertising, but we cannot -- look, there are people who have to trade rates hedge funds must know rates. absolutely i was a hedge fund manager it's really good for me, but i'm not me anymore i'm a person who represents the people who can get these companies, and these companies that are better than a cd. these are beating cds. appreciably. we have to stop thinking -- there's 10,000 people who did get or did not get claims.

well, you know what? there's $40 trillion at stake here with nvidia, so i'm going with nvidia over the claims. >> you think these names are going to stay resilient, even if there are no cuts, even if the ten-year goes back to 4.5% >> do i really think that zuckerberg is going to stop with his inference, which is 40% of nvidia's business? >> the inference, meaning the ability of the product to -- >> listen, if i'm at google, i'm shaking. even amazon, and i love jassy, even amazon has to take a breath and say, we weren't mentioned the way i thought we may be mentioned. whereas bill mcdermott from servicenow is saying, we're getting our due. salesforce, not mentioned. >> so, you're saying they are looking for recognition from jensen >> if you don't mention them, perhaps you should be watching the 8:30 employment numbers. look, i don't want to be out of school here, because i work at a great network. i'm saying that it's our -- my

job, my job, and i got a club meeting this saturday, of which i will do a mea culpa for things like disney, which i screwed up. they didn't screw up i screwed up i picked it. but i got these. i got these. and i am proud that i got these. i have screwed up mightily in a bunch of things, which have been the topic of everybody, every single critic of what's, by the way, going to the damn arena with teddy roosevelt, but i will point out that i nailed this one, and i nailed it, and i nailed it because i met jensen a long time ago, and i realized that this man had a vision of what he could do, and he shared it with me i don't know why maybe it's because the dog was named nvidia in 2017 but it was our job this is our job. it's my job. it's to get you out of disney or at least get you with an activist trying to change it and get you with nvidia, because this is what i'm graded on >> does it feel to you like the bulls win whether rates stay high and these companies deliver

or the rates go down and the rest of the market rallies >> how did these companies deliver? rivian -- i like rivian he blamed the historically high rates. i think -- you know, i searched everywhere for nvidia, put it through chatgpt. i never heard high rates it never came up on the call there are disputed areas the way you can look at this, but this is a -- he's the g.o.a.t i was talking to a couple people in the industry whom i idolize last night, and g.o.a.t. kept coming up. g.o.a.t. kept coming up. >> referring to jensen huang >> greatest of all time. and there are some people who are very cheery about knowing him because we know that he's ethereal we know that he is not of us and we know that he carries himself like a gentleman and it's ethereal. >> do you think he's a bigger visionary than elon musk >> yes >> you didn't hesitate >> yes, and i'll tell you why. i think, in the end, i do

believe that those are -- that's technology on wheels, and i think that musk can see around the corner but i think that jensen is thinking about a legacy of changing the entire paradigm about the way the world is jensen is creating, single-handedly, an industrial revolution, and musk is creating, single-handedly, a way to be able to deliver things, and those are both brilliant things, but to create an industrial revolution yourself, to create the loom, to create the train, to create the steam boat, who does these things? >> do lisa su and gelsinger have any part of that, or is this a solo job >> no, lisa's watching right now and saying, jim, why aren't you giving me my due my current chips are equal to the h-100 if not superior. pat's as nice as ever. as jim mentions, more pain for two ev makers later on this

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shares of two ev makers taking a hit in the premarket in the wake of slowing demand for their products rivian with a full-year production guide below forecasts cuts its salaries workforce by 10%, and the company posts a wider --

>> they don't have the horses. >> morgan stanley, jonas weighing in, saying, is there any pure play alternative to tesla? >> no. and look, jonas, once again, nails it mercedes said last night, forget it, jake, it's chinatown i mean, it's tesla and i do think that, by the way, that tokyo -- the japanese companies are -- anyone's going to challenge, it will be a japanese company trying to get a ten-minute battery charge, but

in japan, we don't -- unfortunately, we don't talk enough about how the revolution in earnings in japan and how much they've become visionaries when it comes to autos like they were when that book was written about toyota i do think we are watching the denouement of an era, and i didn't think it would happen six months now, again, there will be a wave of electric. but this notion of, let's give money to a lot of different companies, tesla won, and hats off to when you think about what elon did with the balance sheet is he's made that work and again, yeah, i'm not slighting elon by saying that i think jensen is better look, you could argue that there are always leaders of all different eras, and look, there's steve jobs steve jobs, i think, was more brilliant than any of these people >> sure. >> but i just know that when i look at what happened to evs, i

come back and say, they had this moment the new musk vehicle will come out. i think everyone's very worried about the 33% of the autos in mexico that are china are going to come through here, and there are six companies that jensen mentions in the nvidia call, chinese companies, that i think a lot of people feel our current government will not be individual lent. keyly was mentioned. you got bvolvo in here. that's the mexican trojan horse. >> so, you think their strategy, as jonas would argue, means to turn tail a bit? >> oh, yeah. yeah i mean, jonas -- look, jonas has a beat on it jonas is -- he's not concurrent. he's ahead but i think that the ev market for now is -- was before its time, except for musk.

>> it's happened really quickly. >> really fast >> and by the way, chinese retail car sales down 15% year on year. >> china's still a disaster. we act as if they're all-powerful they, too, you know -- president xi, read the nvidia call, because let me tell you, chief, you are way behind >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell take another look at the premarket. lot of green arrows, and you know it's all on the back of nvidia to build the electric vehicle of the future, you need partners. mining partners. technology partners. education. supply chain. energy. what if one partner could do it all? that partner is ontario, canada. with all the critical minerals to make electric vehicle batteries. 65,000 stem graduates per year. one of north america's largest i.t. clusters. a fully integrated supply chain. all powered by one of the cleanest grids in north america. ontario. your innovation partner. ( ♪♪ ) oh, charades!

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we know nvidia as goldman said yesterday is the most important stock on planet earth, but a lot of other movers today. let's look at some nasdaq 100 gainers. moderna is in there as well with an eps and revenue beat. they do reiterate their '24 sales guide. we'll get to all of those in a few minutes. don't forget, you can catch us any time, anywhere, just listen to and follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast.

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the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. let's get cramer's "mad dash" as we count down to the opening bell >> we keep hearing people are traveling, even the "business traveller" is back there's great evidence that royal caribbean has a phenomenal quarter and raises numbers very, very big, talking about accelerating demand.

they're doing incredible things that's going to move up -- you'll see norwegian you'll see carnival move up, but royal caribbean has been the best, and i've got to tell you, it's breathtaking to see how much people are really traveling, beat and raise on every single line item extraordinary. and there's no end to it once again, you could say, well, listen, fed doesn't have to worry, because who's this representative bargain i come back and say, these people are long on money, short on time, they want to go see things, and a cruise is indeed a bargain. >> they now see $10 for the year street's $9.60 wayfair, similar story >> just terrific quarter remember, they scaled back a lot of people, and they're doing quite well wayfair is the common institution, and i know that for people who are -- value. value for younger people and it's been something that the street has not coordinated enough valuation for that that

one could really go higher >> the only flies in that ointment might be etsy, for example. >> geez, the merchandise volume is just -- there's no growth to it, and i know that they said that the first quarter is going to be the worst one, but they use that negative single digits expectation for the quarter. that was incredibly disappointing for a company that i like very much >> yeah. >> incredibly disappointing. >> of course, this was all a big topic of discussion in the fed minutes, which were -- the discussion was so broad, jim, they talked about labor supply and immigration. morgan stanley says this is not a committee that's in any rush to do anything >> no, but it's because the data points are signaling, look, immigration -- i'm glad you talk about immigration, because there are people who are unscrupulous, and they will hire people below minimum wage, who are afraid of being deported, and that does create what i would say is a ceiling on the jobs that have been $18 they can get those down to 15 or $14 illegally.

i don't condone any illegal activity there's a lot to worry about, and there's a lot to be upset about. >> yeah, and now some word that the president's going to consider some executive actions on asylum. we'll see how that affects immigration. >> that matters. it matters, because we are in a moment where if you listen to all the restaurants, the restaurants are still finding it very hard to get people. health care is finding it hard to get people. the only place that is not will be the call centers, and that is because i don't know whether you have been on any of the calls that are now nvidia-related calls but they know so much more than humans, and they're really polite humans get testy if you're testy. the machines are incredible. >> that little chat box may not be a human being >> i had one last week where it said, i'm not a human, how can i help you my reaction was, like, terrific, thank heavens. kr i don't want a human

>> at the big board today, innovative etfs. >> banking came up a lot and particularly colette kress was talking about broad, but i think that banking is one of those areas, when i asked her, i get a nice backgrounder with the people, what -- who's really using it banks are. i mean, most people using consultants. some banks are actually using this stuff directly. other industries, they have verticals that are ready software verticals billion dollars of software. i think that's lowball i can see 3 to $4 billion in software remember, their advantage here over lisa su at amd is that they've got more software in -- lisa su will tell you that's not original thinking. but lisa su should -- there's a lot of room for lisa and for amd. >> big picture here, back to 50/50 almost does it unleash a new generation of animal spirits, or is it like

we got through it, and we can continue a trend >> i think that we are buying -- there's a lot of companies whose stocks we're buying because we recognize that the fed's not going to raise rates that's really the saving grace see, again, i think the raise/cut is a false dichotomy we don't want them to be on our radar screen they're not. we can make them on a radar screen, but that's not the game i want to play if i want that, i can play rummikub my wife will beat me every time. i think what matters here are fundamentals when you listen to any of the conference calls in the last two days, other than pin the tail on rivian, no one's mentioned rates. i mean, home depot mentioned it's like a factor, but if rates came down or mortgage rates went down, they thought they'd do well home depot was not a great call, but the stock is only four points from tied i like builders first source,

which is just complete blow-away number look at this thing it's not the all-time high, because four years ago was higher, but if deals really are what's in play, then how is it possible that home depot can be there? the answer is that yields are not fractious and unruly, and that's all we care about whirlpool, there was a report out of whirlpool they were saying, don't worry about the 6.25% yield that's covered. they've got an analyst meeting, and they'd better deliver. i'm going to tell them right now, listen, you deliver you've let us down you deliver. that european deal, that was awful. and you can defend it all you want, but that -- you defend stuff, and it stops here the analysts play along. i don't know why but the european deal with the turkish appliance company, that was a second-rate deal it was a suboptimal deal >> well, we do have redfin, new

listings, biggest jump in two months, jim. the spring season is coming. we're going to get existing in half an hour maybe some household creation here >> we have to -- doug yearley. we have to focus -- this is, again, this -- the false dichotomy of hard landing/soft landing. toll brothers is putting up numbers that look like that the fed's cutting furiously, and the reason is great products, value, okay, value for the millionaire, admittedly, and gross margins, extraordinary. the gross margins -- all the other housing cycles that have been contiguous with the fed, these gross margins that have collapsed from 25 to, say, 12, and say they went to 27, rather remarkable you can't get that margin expansion unless you're doing something really right and the fed is not a factor. >> things that got lost yesterday in the shuffle of

nvidia, boeing highest executive departure since the door panel blowout stock's not getting buffeted >> it's the duopoly. i went to see a world war ii museum and a b-17 that had been preserved, "our gal sal," and i realize that even though they weren't perfect, they delivered. where's that boeing? i want that boeing back. i want that back in the vision pro. oh, man. come on, get that thing working so we can watch that show. >> a host of restaurant names you mentioned earlier, we didn't mention bros or cake or jack >> yeah. i know i love all those bros, the era of overexpansion is over, and it's doing well that's the annihilator i like that very much. i'm concerned about wendy's dividend perhaps i shouldn't. >> downgrade today >> they got kanter in there, seasoned pro, three decades,

pepsico, i think he can turn it around that would be, i know, monumental i have wingstop on tonight they will blow the guidance, but they are capable of doubling the stores they have that's been the best performer of the group, and mike has been sensational. i said, i want a wingstop. they say, how many burger kings do you own how can mcdonald's it's really, like, you can only be a wingstop owner if you're already a member of the club that's been a fantastic franchise. 1.8 million average unit revenue and they think they can get it to $2 million. 11 different varieties of hot sauce. >> got an upgrade of dash today. morgan stanley goes to overweight, $145 >> where you been, morgan stanley? that quarter was -- look, i think that tony -- here's the problem with tony. too self-effacing. if i were there in the room with him, i would have said, you blew everybody away, but he's too humble some of these ceos are crushing it, but they have no desire to

say they're crushing it. >> is that a good thing? i mean, i don't -- i don't know where you are on nonpromotional ceos >> if you're making money, i'm okay if you're losing muroney, shut , okay >> yeah, morgan stanley points to category expansion and better loyalty. >> look, a very good situation where the company pivoted, is doing a lot of things right. i like doordash very much. one of the stocks i want to talk about this weekend at my conference i find that there are these companies, they never come in. you want to buy them you want to buy them so, what you have to do is you have to buy some and hope it comes in but the great ones haven't come in the great ones don't come in on fed day. >> jim, the top dow names at the moment, salesforce, ibm, microsoft. >> well, salesforce, not mentioned. hybrid cloud, which is ibm, mentioned. and microsoft just get lab copilot.

the cfo says, extreme adoption extreme adoption of nvidia those make sense salesforce has amazing a.i marc benioff does not -- he happens to like jensen very much, but much more proprietary in who's powering it at salesforce >> some discussion yesterday marco over at jpm, once again, trots out 1970s stagflation as a risk, especially with tensions in the middle east, the prospect of a china trade war what do you make when you hear continued warnings like that >> thank you thank you. >> for providing the wall of worry? >> it lets our people get in, our people who are hardworking people who are trying to augment their paycheck, and are not concerned about things that might or might not happen and are trying to find good companies along with s&p, and these are the people who let us in jan still hasn't let us in don't talk about jan university of fryberg.

he and erasmus, slootman went to erasmus. these schools -- they got some stanfords over there we're not the only guys who got like a stanford. >> jan's been constructive, although they were also -- >> stanford was my back-up school i said no to them. nice weather >> they were in the march camp and they had to retreat a bit from that. the goldman -- >> that was wrong. i'm sorry over there i threw my pen at somebody march, i mean, take it off the table. you've got fed guys who are trying to say, listen, we basically, i think, we wish that we hadn't said anything. >> yeah. >> i'm sorry about that. i hit the guy. >> finally, jim, we're going to talk to mondelez in a minute interesting interview with the nestle ceo asked about glrp-1s, says, it's going to hurt demand for some products, but maybe we sell more of others. >> the pastiche at nestle is 50% pet food and stuff that's good for you. people don't understand. he really singled out the part

of his portfolio that is not good for you, that's glp-1, okay yeah his numbers are zepbound where's maunja ro? let's turn to mondelez i have to tell you, before we speak to him, the numbers are great. he's joining us with more, dirk van de put, and dirk is just a seasoned pro, trading above his algorithm. dirk, wow. i mean, how -- everyone says that you shouldn't have been able to do this. what are you doing that makes it so you're triumphing over mounjaro, wegovy, zepbound what's going on here >> thanks for remembering mondelez it's always a pleasure to be

here we're doing the basics right, i think. we're building our brands, keep on reinvesting, driving distribution, doing marketing activity that connect to consumers. and the consumers love our brands oreo, milka, tobleron, you name it, they're very connected, and people these days understand that they need to be careful the way they shop, but they don't want to pull back on snacking, particularly not on the biscuits and chocolate brands, and we're getting rewarded for that. there's no magic formula just doing the right thing and keep on supporting your brand. that's what we're doing. >> absolutely. so, i want to -- your brands are so loved that i found myself saying, does the president have a point here with these comments about shrinkflation and buying snacks they actually -- i mean, a lot of people tell me the glp-1s can hurt will power, but it doesn't seem like there's any willpower when it comes to eating your

food, but there is a concern that the american public is tired of being played for suckers, said president biden. am i a sucker if i'm eating a lot of toblerone >> absolutely not. i think since the pandemic, most consumers want a very indulgent -- they want to save some time for themselves they want to feel good so, taking time for that is considered much more acceptable than it was four or five years ago. about shrinkflation, consumers want to buy the product at the right price, and there are price points which are very important for consumers, and to keep those price points, we often reduce the pack we don't touch the cookie, but we reduce the pack, and i think consumers are clever enough to know that's happening, but with the inflation we've been seeing, there's no other way than to keep this price point, which still makes it affordable for consumers to buy our product it's to augment -- >> you are saying that you're guilty of shrinkflation?

>> well, i think that certain stages we play around with our packs and make them bigger or smaller. we've also launched bigger packs because some consumers prefer to buy bigger packs, so we try adapt the range of packs that we sell to the needs of the consumer >> okay, well, i have in my hands a report by senator bob casey from pennsylvania. he singles out none other than oreos and says that you have shrunk the family-size packs of double stuf oreos from 1 pound 4 ounces to 1 pound 2.7 ounces is that true, sir? >> that is true. and like i was explaining, it's not meant to fool the consumer it's just to keep the right price point. in today's inflationary environment, that's one of the ways we try to do that >> it's like watching lee j.

cobb over here >> yes >> on a direct cross dirk, lot of interesting presentations at cagney, referring to market pressure in china, in asia pacific, in parts of the middle east and africa. can you talk about where the pressure points are around the globe? >> yes, i think there's geopolitical pressures in the different areas of the world that you just mentioned. china, russia, of course, there is the middle east these days. and then, there is consumer nervousness or consumer being much more attentive to the way they buy, which you largely see in developed markets like u.s. and europe and then, we have to say that emerging markets, consumer remains very optimistic about the future and they keep on buying at a very good rate it's a mixture between consumers

not feeling so great and being careful and some geopolitical situations >> what is your thinking right now about corporate exposure in packaged food, in russia >> well, since the beginning of the war, we have condemned the brutal aggression against the ukraine. unfortunately, in terms of operating in russia, there is no simple solution, really, and so i want to be very clear, if we could solve the war by stopping our operation in russia, we would do so. but i don't think it's as simple as that, and so we are faced with a complicated framework and trying to do what's right. i think our investors all understand how that works. we believe that the risk of continuing our operations is lower than exiting russia, because our business would be put in the hands of a third

party who could use it to the benefit of the war, and so, we can continue to operate locally, scaling back our operations, and making our business a stand-alone business that doesn't export to europe, nor does it import from europe, is the right way to go, and that's the course we're following at the moment >> dirk, i'm doing some work about whether nelson peltz would be a valuable board member for disney when he served at mondelez, did he do a good job for you >> yes, he did he did i thought that he was a major contributor to our board, that he had the best interest in mind of the company he pushes hard, so, yes, he comes up with ideas, and he tries to challenge the ceo, but i always welcome his ideas, and i enjoyed a very good working relationship with him. >> well, there's something i think disney could use, the stock's been almost cut in half for my travel trust and i'm not feeling very charitable toward

them dirk van de put, congratulations. you've triumphed over a lot of things, and one of the reasons is your stuff tastes so good thank you very much. >> thank you got manufacturing and services pmi crossing the tape let's get to rick santelli good morning, rick >> good morning, carl. indeed, it's going to be a one out of three with regard to these pmis from s&p global the best one out of three is 51.5 for headline manufacturing. it's higher than we expected, and it's higher than the rear view mirror. now, this is preliminary in a couple weeks it will getting modified, but 51.5 is the best reading since november of last -- excuse me, september of '22 now, the next two services and composite, they're both below expectations and below last look for a final read on january, 51.3 on services that's the weakest level since november of '23 and if you look at the composite, at 51.4, same dynamic. lower than expected, lower than

the previous read. also, the weakest since november of last year we see that interest rates have come down off of the jump they had, which really was, in essence, the 7:30 eastern release of the ecb minutes pushed race up a bit, but boy, they are coming down from the highest yield close that we had yesterday in twos and tens for 2024 indeed, you could stretch that out to two and a half months, actually "squawk on the street" will return after a short break

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it's time for jim and stop trading. >> builders first source has been a remarkable stock. better performed than home depot. i have dave rush on tonight. remarkable quarter these are not do ityourself guys this caters to the professional builders you have the pulte homes and big clients. they are to the home builders putting up such great numbers. i like this story. >> that's going to be good a buyback as well. >> what a great story. >> one thing we didn't mention we got the release from doj appointing their first ever chief ai officer. >> about time. this is something we need. it's not a runway train. there's -- we need to have -- we are to be at the vanguard. you can easily abuse it. >> a lot of chart work done this morning on the way it happens is the way jensen is describing, financial conditions, economic activity, maybe a politics, all around the globe. >> right it's just happening faster than

we are i think we can get ahead of it, and i think there are a lot of guardrails again, i'm just worried about an election the fraudulent that can come from doing something to an election so easy and so much that gets viral so fast, it is a concern. but i'm not going to let it derail this stuff is for real. >> right tonight. >> i have patty poppy from pacific gas and electric, she's done a remarkable job turning things around really, and then skipworth is the real deal wingstop is a fantastic institution and people don't talk about it because it's kind of boring. we want to make money. the show is about making money and if you can make money in wingstop, it doesn't matter they just make wings. >> the money is still green. >> it's pedestrian who cares? it makes you money doesn't have to be ai. it can be wings. the big one and the little one. >> jim, good show.

>> real good show. >> important week. >> "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time tonight when we come back more reaction to nvidia's blowout quarter and upbeat guidance sending the stock and s&p to fresh all-time highs. so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free.

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oww! violence makes our tummies tingle. violence. violence. violence. good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with deirdre bosa live at post nine of the new york stock exchange and cnbc's one market bure sara and david have the morning off. s&p all-time high, same story for the dow as nvidia comes in with a stellar quarter we'll talk about it today in addition to the fed speak we'll get this afternoon and tonight. >> yeah. look at that nasdaq up 2.3%. it is just off to the races. we're just 30 minutes into the trading session, here are the movers we are watching nvidia, of course, is the story of the day

it is up double digits hitting all-time highs and adding to a more than 250% gain over the last year. we will break down the numbers and what comes next in just a moment meanwhile, check out shares of etsy, one of the biggest laggards on the s&p. guiding for a gross merchandise sales to decline, saying they're off to a, quote, slow start to the year there's the consumer names today. keep an eye on them, shares of keurig, dr pepper and nestle, after weaker sales than expected in some segments at both names. >> as we said busy day for data. existing home sales. for that we get to diana olick. >> hey, carl existing home sales rose 3.1% in january to seasonally adjusted rate of 4 million annualized units, sales down 1.7%, but december's read was revised slightly higher. this is the highest sales pace since august of last year. the count is based on closings

contracts likely signed in november and december when rates dropped off the 8% october high and hit a loaf 6.6% by mid-december today they're become over 7. inventory in january increased to 1.01 million units, up 3.1%-year but low three month supply six months considered balanced between buy and seller we're seeing pressure on prices. the median existing home price in january, $379,100 up 5.1% year over year an all-time month high for january. we saw a jump in all cash sales to 32% up from 29% in both december and one year ago and that's the highest share of all cash in more than a decade the market slowed down average days on market 36, up from 33 the year before. >> thank you for that. we'll get reaction later in the hour from the compass ceo. we have fresh fed speak crossing

the tape let's get to steve liesman with that steve? >> fed vice chair phil jefferson saying it will likely be appropriate to reduce the monetary policy restraint, quote, later this year not a lot of specificity, but later this year is what he says. he says the policy rate currently is well into restrictive territory. repeat data showed there is a path to restoring price stability and lowering inflation without a big increase in unemployment on the labor market, he said it remains tight but there is evidence of cooling in labor demand inflation has made clear progress but points to what he calls a disappointing january cpi which highlights the process of reducing inflation is likely to be bumpy and sees core service prices moderating as the labor market cools and offers a staff estimate of the number coming out a week from friday which is that the pce will fall to 2.4% from 2.6 it does point out risks

including the idea that consumer spending could prove more resilient and employment could weaken more than expected and talks about geopolitical risks remaining elevated create something price pressure in that regard there are warning signs he says, that economic activity can weaken quickly but inflation can reignite then he has a history of easing cycles that is instructive most easing cycles have multiple phases the fed would cut a little bit and then come back and cut some more. sometimes triggered by economic shocks and then he points to this careful easing in the 1995 easing cycle that allowed the fed to assess incoming data of all the examples he gives, it seals like the one he likes the most, he quotes alan blinder, there's the '95 easing cycle if that's the one, i think the market is going to be disappointed in that a quarter point cut in july, the fed waited, waited, and came back and cut twice more and then

the next move in '97 when it hiked a quarter point. that was not a wonderful outcome if that's the one he's using if you want to take the dovish view, he is talking about easing. >> fascinating good start to where we're headed with this coverage today meantime nvidia is the stock of the day taking another leg higher after topping sales and profit expectations, revenue more than $22 billion, 265% up from last year on the strength in the ai business the company project better than expected revenue for the current quarter riding coat tails, arm, all trading higher jon fortt sat down with nvidia's jensen huang following the company's report talking about the road ahead for ai and how nvidia can aptize on it. take a listen. >> what's going to happen is the world's enterprise platform represents approximately a trillion dollars that represents platforms like servicenow, represents data platforms like

snowflake, dropbox, box, sap, oracle these application-oriented, goals-oriented platforms and data-oriented platforms are all going to be revolutionized with these ai agents that sit on top of it. the way to think about that is very simple, where the platforms used to be tools that expert was learn to use, in the future, these tools, companies, will offer ai agents that you can hire to help you use these tools or tohelp you reduce the barrier of using these tools >> you can catch more of that interview later today on "closing bell: overtime" at 4:00 p.m. eastern lot of discussion about not just the quarter or its effect on equities, but also the possibility of nvidia being in the words of new edge, a financial conditions fire starter where the use of these chips and the way they spread throughout the cloud and platforms actually increases gdp and can affect central bank policy >> lifts all boats, right.

you mentioned the chip makers and chip names up on the back of those earnings, but really it's all of tech with the nasdaq up 2.3% the call was incredible. i was counting how many times the word trillion was mentioned which feels like that's the level we're dealing with now, whether it's sam altman and trillions of dollars in reshaping the chip landscape, whether it is jensen huang's tam for enterprise ai. these numbers are getting bigger and bigger i want to point out one specifically and that is the 40% of ai revenues coming from the inference part of nvidia's business now there's sort of two main buckets in ai revenue. one is the training where you actually have to train models and there's not that many companies doing that, right. the models that we know like chatgpt and gemini from google or anthropics cloud, but inference is basically what every company will have to do. it's using these ai models for business procedures and it was the first time that they had put

a number on this, 40% of all ai revenues, that is just a huge number, carl this was thought to be a more competitive space, and it really underscores the idea that nvidia is no longer just a hardware company a chip company, but it's creating the software and different revenue streams from this ai boom. >> yeah. the inference i think was morgan stanley's note as well, that said that was really the underlying lion headline of the quarter. >> yeah. i think they said it was twice what they were expecting even the other commentary coming out of that call last night how his expectation, jensen huang's, saying that every industry, everyp company, every region, you're going to see ai generation factories, so, you know, if you're looking at a 10-year cycle and we're only two or three years in, this thing could have a lot of legs let's get to an analyst on the subject, piper sandler with us, and he has an $508 price target and buy rating on the stock. what stood out to you this

quarter? there's a lot to choose from >> first of all, thank you for having me on your show it was a fantastic quarter it was a $2 billion beat on the january quarter, $2 billion beat on the april guide to me there were four things that stood out i think you mentioned some of them first thing is, there are supply constraints through the calendar 2024 timeframe and they have two new chips coming out, the h-200 coming out and a whole new architecture, coming out this year, and historically whenever there have been new products they always have a demand. we don't see supply constraints going away we see revenues continuing to climb. to me the surprise was the space you were talking about a little bit earlier, but also the fact that they now have china chip approval i'm calling it china chip for lack of a better word. nvidia was banned from selling into china, about $3 billion a quarter business or about $12 billion annually, but last night they sort of surprised everybody by saying they're sampling and

they actually shipped commercially just a little bit of that china specific chip. they did about a billion in china, and used to be a $3 trillion business, so expectation is they have the green light and that business will climb up to $3 billion a quarter, $12 billion a year, $4 in additional eps. then, of course, everything else was super strong cloud remains very strong. software company business remains very soft. sovereign remains very strong. we can see why software companies and sovereign do not want to put their data on aws or azure or anything else last but not least, this is the only full stack provider you guys talked about software a little bit earlier before i came on, there's nobody else. and you've got to run and you've got to manage these complex servers and you're back to nvidia with a $4500 per gpu license. we think that business is about to take off. >> yes it's the ecosystem that goes

beyond the chips on that front you mentioned nvidia ai enterprise and the idea of creating an operating system for ai. said that they would charge $4500 per gpu per year what kind of revenue stream does that look like for them? >> if we do the math, i mean we had published a piece out about i think a year old estimating about 5 to 6 billion in revenues by 2030, but we were not anticipating ai enterprise to be coming on this strong and the adoption for ai to be this strong a large part of that particular piece was driven by a drive. don't forget that they also play into autonomous driving and companies like mercedes-benz, for example, who share 50% of their autonomous revenues with nvidia your sign up for autonomous driving, write a check for $6,000 to nvidia the ai enterprise suite this company has an install base of tens of millions of gpus out

there for the last 15, 20 years, i would say for the data center side over the last 7 to 8 years and all of those are going to need to be managed. >> right. >> we can see this being a multibillion dollar stream, with software like margin profiles. 98% margin and operating margins in the 60s and 70s. >> and jensen huang put a "t" on the opportunity for enterprise ai at large. let me, harsh, question you on what you said about china. you said that you saw that as sort of positive commentary, but why didn't they guide any higher for the china business you said it was going to be about flat next quarter. is it going to take some time to ramp up? >> that's a great question the chip just came out if you recall previously they were selling the same chip in china and the u.s., so the chinese customers didn't feel the need to evaluate and hold back because they were getting

parody goods if you will and starting last year the clip was diminished and diminished again. the chinese customer got the chip, they're evaluating the performance of the chip. so as a customer i'm going to make the call to buy this new chip or buy the v-100 chip which is the 1 1/2, 2 year older chip. because of the evaluations not fully completed i think it's prudent that they went ahead and gave a flatish guidance for china but our expectation is that it's a good chip. nvidia makes a great product and that that business will ramp back up sooner than later this year to $3 billion. >> so you're saying they might be being a little conservative harsh, always great to get your take we'll talk to you again soon >> thank you so much a lot more ahead on nvidia take a look at the road map for the hour the fed showing no rush to cut interest rates more on what that might mean for the market with one warning of a fiscal train wreck ahead.

>> ev maker having no good very bad week targets disappointing in rivian and lucid. we will break down the ev landscape ahead. >> the irs turning to ai to crack down on the ultra rich we'll explain. big show still ahead with the s&p very close taltio l-me highs at 5060. back after this. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart! that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy.

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america's most reliable 5g network. sure is a lot safer than becoming a stuntman for money. get a free line of unlimited intro for a year when you buy one unlimited line. plus, get the new samsung galaxy s24 on us. welcome back to "squawk on the street." traders still betting on june for the start of rate cuts from the fed despite the minutes overnight suggesting that officials are wary of cutting

rates too quickly. richard fisher joins us this morning. great to have you back a lot of discussion about the minutes yesterday and whether or not three weeks old has enough happened in the last past three weeks to make those minutes irrelevant >> first, carl, i want to wish you a happy national margarita day. that's what today is declared by congress, by the way. >> i was going to start with drinks, but we can do that yeah. >> we may need drinks after you listen to me carl - >> are you - >> it's pretty clear that they keep dwelling on one key point, which is, they have to see sustainable movement towards the 2% target. meanwhile, we have a great employment number, very historically still low unemployment number, so so far the path has worked. i've said this before, for example, on "squawk box," a couple days ago, if i were at

the table i would be arguing i don't see any need for us to do anything in the immediate future so that's march. we'll have to see the new data that comes out for june. the data has come out since the last meeting of which these minutes were recorded has not been as favorable as the markets were expecting. >> interesting. >> i do want to dwell on the fact that it's not just the fed that's impacting rates what we have is i call the congressional lemmings, democrats and republicans, rushing to the cliff of massive government borrowing and the cost of carry is now doubled for our government of everything that's rolling over, so if you're going to do $10.1 trillion in refinancing this year, the question is, at what price and what yield who is going to take it down the dealers are already -- if you look at the 20-year auction

that took place this week it was very sloppy. i'm more worried about the 10-year, and if you look even one-year, the one-year is back over 5%. >> yeah. >> it's not just the fed this is the critical thing we have an enormous, as my friend paul tudor jones likes to say, a fiscal wreck, and we're not doing anything about it. >> yeah, there was -- some argue the 20-year yesterday might have been more important than the minutes, although then the added bit about shorter lifetime and less of a data set to rely on. >> well, that's true, but again, this is a supply-demand concern. and there are very few politically palatable options to dealing with it. we have to cut back on government, and/or the fed has to monetize the debt and i don't believe under this current leadership, especially, under jay powell, and the current fomc, that they'll even be

tempted to do so so now the question is, who buys this stuff massive supply coming to the market in all the maturity categories, even though they've shortened up the auction calendar, and who takes it down and what price i think that's the -- that's really what's moving part of the yield curve right now, is supply and demand, not simply will the fed cut three times now or four or whatever the market is guessing we all know they're not going to cut six times. that's been -- >> or seven recently i think that's where expectations were good morning you talked about the fiscal issues impacting the yield curve. i guess what is the course of action some think that the fed isn't taking the economy seriously enough and there is a chance of recession or, you know, that they face a policy risk right now? where are you? you guess about how many cuts, but how many do you think is appropriate this year? >> well, again, it depends on what happens in terms of

movement to inflation than where we are right now, and maintaining employment that's the basis of the dual date that fed operates on. i think the risk on rates is for higher rates, not lower rates. obviously, very short term, fed funds, i do expect the fed to move some time this year i can't tell you when, but right now, they're in a very sweet spot the threat, i want to emphasize this, the threat is our political structure and no candidate for the white house is willing to talk about this, what are they going to do to bring this massive supply of u.s. treasuries under control they keep running up deficits. i don't hear mr. trump speaking about it, i don't hear mr. biden speaking ate it. they're the two lead candidates. what are they going to do to constrain and change the

structure for social security, for example. what are they going to do to deal with the fact that the interest cost, the cost of caring right now, exceeds or about to exceed all defense spendingin a very troubled world where we have wars breaking out everywhere and we have a terrible problem at our southern border. how are they going to pay for it what's going to be sacrificed for it >> yep those are hopefully questions we'll get answered before the election finally, jefferson has an interesting table, richard, looking at past episodes of peak rates and where inflation stood as the easing cycle began. core pce 2.2, 1.7, 2.5, 1.9. is that what we need to wait for? >> i think we just need to make sure we're moving to the 2% target it doesn't have to necessarily be at 2% the question is, are we moving in that direction and at what speed? right now, the speed seems to have slowed down we made enormous progress.

my hats off to chairman powell and the fomc they've done a good job and made a mistake, they let inflation get out of the barn, the horse ran away, they brought it back in it's a little distempered still. we'll have to see, but it's moving in the right direction sustainably and confidently and that's what they're waiting for in my view. >> if you pour a margarita, pour one for all of us. >> you'll need it after the show, carl. >> we'll see you soon. thanks a little early on the west coast but i'll take. it after the break, a look at one mystery name that has been cut in half this year and falling double digits this morning. itt. out why and what company isex stay with us the green. not you. you! your business bank account with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy. (♪♪) that's how you business differently.

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>> what stood out is there is no good answers in terms of what rivian and lucid has to do specific to rivian and our discussion, he says look we have to cut our costs yeah obviously, they've got to cut their costs. we're losing $43,000 per vehicle. so when you look at these two companies, a couple things stand out about the results they reported after the bell last night. they both posted losses wider than expected in the case of rivian their 2024 production guidance below estimates. considerably below the estimate for rivian and well below the estimate for lucid as well bottom line, they are both seeing slower sales and demand here's rj from "squawk box" this morning. >> we've seen historically high interest rates along with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty, particularly for higher priced products, you know, in the premium segment. we're seeing the affect of interest rates and uncertainty really impact how people are thinking about purchase

decisions, and it led us to accelerating the launch of our pack to make sure we have our full portfolio of products available. >> rivian has not given delivery estimate for this year, guidance, if you will. they delivered 51,000 vehicles the number you see at the bottom there, that was the analyst estimate going into the earnings call yesterday 66,000 so they're not oto build 67,000 vehicles look for the estimate to come down take a look at shares of rivian they will be unveiling their next generation vehicle, a smaller suv, crossover utility vehicle, it will be built in georgia starting in 2026 that is the r2 that unveiling happening on march 7th here in the u.s. and finally take a look at shares of lucid, the lucid gravity suv, the next vehicle from them that production is scheduled to start in the fourth quarter, but it is also a company that is not going to be building as many

vehicles as promised, guys they're going to be building about 9,000 vehicles this year that's their guidance. the street was expecting them to say 14,000 here are two companies that completely under delivered in terms of what the analysts and investors were looking for. >> and as you said, one thing is clear, they've got to cut costs on their side. customers as well, both of them operate in the luxury segment, the r2 supposed to be more affordable rivian has that. lucid, correct me if i'm wrong, doesn't have an affordable option on their blueprint? >> not affordable like you and i would consider affordable, what most would consider affordable something in the 35 to $45,000 range. lucid now has a model that is coming out for under $80,000 that is down considerably compared to where they were with the first model that came out. they are a luxury ev company and with regard to the r2, they are hoping, rivian is hoping it will be in the mid-segment in terms of price, but that's 2026 when

they go to market with it, at least when they begin production will they be able to come in at 40 or 45,000 who knows. >> phil, thanks for that phil lebeau this morning. when we come back, unpacking nvidia's blockbuster q4 results om awhat it means for the ai bond what investors need to know after a short break om prin. so i know i'm taken care of. and not just me. but the ones who matter most to me. ♪♪ oh no, a rash. maybe it'll go away. awww, how am i going to find a doctor i'll actually like? is that a qr code? dr. stafford makes you feel at ease. thanks rash! you've got more options than you know. book now.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm bertha coombs with your cnbc news update. donald trump's legal team is asking for a 30-day delay in enforcement of the more than $350 million judgment in his new york civil fraud case which included a three-year ban preventing trump doing business in the state his attorneys say they need more time for a, quote, orderly post-judgment process. trump is expected to appeal the ruling, but he needs to post a bond for the full amount of the damages before doing so. a judge has blocked

california's attorney general from enforcing a new law that allows residents, state and local governments, to sue over what the state calls abnormally dangerous guns the ruling says the law likely violates the constitution's protection of interstate commerce and panda diplomacy is back. san diego zoo officials say china plans to send a new pair of giant pandas to their zoo as early as the end of the summer china wildlife conservation association says it is also in talks with the national zoo in washington to bring the bears back there you know what that means, deirdre. panda cam. >> progress. >> panda cam. >> that's exactly what i was thinking of. i love the panda cam thank you. nvidia easily the top gainer in the nasdaq 100 today after those blowout results and also lifting shares of other semi names with ai exposure kristina partsinevelos has been tracking the action and joins us with more on the reaction from

the street here in one market. >> in person in front of you i'm excited. let's talk about nvidia's earnings giving confidence to investors at the ai trade is going to continue without being too high to worry investors. start with data center revenue up 409% year over year and you talked about that early in the show driving 40% of the sales. you had improved supply helping, speaking of supply management does expect a supply shortage for the new ai product around march 18th giving confidence that demand will keep growing in 2025. china revenue did fall because of export restrictions the company is sending workaround chips which could mean more china growth once they get those licenses from the u.s. government and then the company also reset gross margins to mid-70s later half in this year which is still higher than most chip makers across the board with the exception of maybe arm you have so many analysts, so many reports to read upping their price targets.

bernstein up to $1,000, saying nvidia is printing money, deutsche bank says the joy ride continues. key bank says nvidia's the best positioned in semis to benefit from generative a.i. there was cautious tones, they were few and far between wedbush says sales momentum can't continue for ever and more difficult to read the tea leaves analysts at d.a. davidson up their price target but saying they only did that because nvidia shares are at a peak and the drop in demand is, quote, inevitable over the next four to six quarters ubs very similar lines they cut their system saying growth is going to slow. but that hasn't stopped the stock from hitting an intraday high inching closer to that $2 trillion market cap. >> how many reports do you think you read this morning? more or less than 20 >> probably around 18 or something. >> yeah. >> and then going through them quickly starting so early and then they send them as of 5:00 a.m. >> eastern time. >> so you brought up a really interesting point, too, last

night even is that nvidia only guides for the quarter ahead but that commentary on the call was just so enormous we talked about how jensen huang was throwing around trillion sticks times in that call. you could argue he's earned it. >> how much sftrust? look at the stock. i shouldn't say completely because the demand and magnitude continues every quarter but like wedbush pointed out we're not provided with any full-year guidance we have to trust what he's saying he said we're at a tipping point, two trends, first all of the older data centers are going to be modernized that will make them more efficient over the next five years that's going to create a $1 trillion opportunity. the second trend is going to be general enterprise that are spending on creating large language models and so they're purposely buying new gpu data center units to build. that's another trillion dollar opportunity within next five

years. you have to trust what he's saying he's saying it's not just coming from hyper scalers but from other verticals, auto, health care. >> their software ecosystem. >> $1 billion run rate right now. >> just incredible diversification of the revenue streams but there is the revenue smart people in the industry, data bricks, for example, says there could be an incoming chip glut we haven't seen sign of that or even competition has been slow to come online and nvidia has a giant leap forward how does that -- how could that play out >> the competition, i think, is something we should consider as a medium term threat and i say that because so many of the hyper scalers are creating their own custom chips that are cheaper and they will want to do that in-house. you can't discount their coming to market, but we saw with qualcomm and apple the fact that apple couldn't create the mobile chips and how difficult it was, it's not easy and not going to happen overnight even if a man like sam altman will throw $7 trillion at the project. having said that, amd and intel

laung their chips. nvidia, first mover advantage, everybody putting their money in the h 100 and h200 and b100. the latest chip ai event they have going on which the stock tends to increase 6% on average after that event even if there happens to be -- >> high expectations >> and i thought maybe there was a tepid reaction in the stock price. >> right. >> post earnings wasn't the case. maybe it will come down over the next few days. could be an opportunity -- >> we know you'll be covering it for us thank you. >> carl? >> still ahead, guys, home sales data comes in better than expected today but some cracks beginning to show as fed minutes overnight suggests no signs of rate relief soon 'rgog g t rd wee intoetheeaon the ground from the ceo of compass in a minute. ted experie, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms.

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comes in better than expected, but demand does take a hit now thanks to 7 plus percent rates. the next guest says the overall housing market is in a recovery phase as there are still more buyers than sellers last year. robert riskkin is with us along with diana olick, senior real estate correspondent welcome back, robert. >> great to be here. >> spring is coming. >> spring is coming. >> is activity what you would want to see coming into it >> what's driving activity is inventory. we have 13% more this year than last year. it converts into sales we have 9% more homes in contract to be sold at this point than last year i believe that this spring market we will see a significant increase in inventory. we can esee on the compass platform we have 30,000 agents this time last year, 60% of new clients working with our agents were buyers that were setting up buyer search alerts but now 60%

of new clients work with our agents are evaluating listing presentations with their agents and evaluating selling their home. >> do you expect, we mentioned the 30 fixed, is this a blip, momentary head wind? >> i would love for mortgage rates to be below 7% this has been one heck of a roller coaster, but you don't need 6% mortgage rates when the stock market is at an all-time high you have markets like the bay area, seattle, i was in seattle early this week, when people are paid in their bonuses and their compensation is in stock at an all-time high they can afford a home. >> diana, i will let you jump in. >> i was talking to one of your agents this morning and she said she's thrilled what inventory she is going is flying off the shelf but sellers have to get more creative doing mort rate buy now and offering concessions. do you think as we get into

spring that will dissuade some of the sellers you're talking about? >> i think across the country, sellers are becoming more realistic on pricing given the modest buyer strike when mortgage rates did hit above 8%. we saw near record level price drops. so entry in this year, they're more realistic in general. it's a great time to be buyer. more inventory and pricing. >> what about for your agents we've seen a lot of lawsuits talking about commissions and some agents are saying they're really worried about having to negotiate for buyer agent commissions and losing on their business side. can you give us an update on that >> look, i think the challenge we have as an industry is agents are almost too good at their job in that part of their job is to hide the clients from their pain does the buyer or seller at the end of a transaction do they remember all that the agent did for them all the open houses, negotiations how many people they showed the house to the staging, the home preparation, how many contracts

they helped them walk through. they don't remember those things actually at compass we are launching this year a client portal for buyers and sellers that will record very beautiful visually attractive way all that the agent does for them so that at the end of the transaction they can be reminded in a pleasant way the value of the agent. >> you're saying it's up to the agents to tell them how much work they're doing for the sellers? is that right? you don't think there's any kind of dislocation between the two >> i think the -- the typical seller and buyer that works with their agent loves their agent, but doesn't love actually the industry overall i think our p.r. as an industry can be improved, and one of the ways to improve it is to make it more visible the launch of the portal will do exactly that. >> finally, robert, you and i during the break were discussing the recent piece in the

journal about san francisco's comeback and i don't know if you want to address that or just the idea that urban areas that took the biggest hit, are they primed for the biggest growth >> i think what's -- the biggest new trend in the last month when you look at the country is the tech hubs, san francisco bay area, seattle, where you have the ai boom and you have stocks at an all-time high. 7% mortgage rates isn't a problem if you're using all cash we can see that there are less mortgage applications this time this year than last year however there are more transactions what's making up the gap all cash offers. >> as diana pointed out when the data hit about 45 minutes ago. great discussion we'll stay close to you in the coming weeks thanks as always carl, i'm glad you asked about san francisco. i've had that journal article forwarded to me many, many times. meantime with a new $60 billion in congressional funding the irs is more than doubling audits on the wealthy. over to robert frank who caught up with a commissioner of the

irs in a rare interview. robert, what did he say? >> good to see you irs commissioner danny worefell telling me millionaires and billionaires are evading $150 billion a year in taxes, so the irs is using their bills from congress to target the wealthy large partnerships and companies. now new technology is playing a big role here. yesterday, the agency announced a crackdown on private jet owners and they're using public databases that track private jet flights to find out if owners are using their business jets for personal use the irs is deploying ai to find patterns of tax fraud in the more than 160 million returns they get every year. >> what ai does is allows us to put on night vision goingles we don't have those night vision goggles. what's going on in this complexity there are things we can't see without improved

vision, improved insight, so what those night vision goggles allows us to do is be more precise figuring out where the high and low risk is that benefits everyone. >> for those high earners that are worried about being audited now that you're doing your taxes the red flags that irs is looking for is partnership income, any offshore profits and, of course, any private jet deductions you can watch our full interview with the commissioner on cnbc.com guys >> robert, i suppose i'm safe on the private jet deductions won't be looking into those for me they're trying to i guess collect money that has fallen through the cracks and i guess they're looking, at least at what you described, the high income earners what about small businesses and other than w2 employees, where can they collect the most or do the most change here >> yeah. so they've made a pledge not to audit or increase the audit rate for any company or individual that is making less than $400,000 a year.

so that really is like very small businesses and anyone under $400,000 there is a concern, especially among republicans in congress, that this sweeping increase in audits for those let's say million or more will affect small businesses the irs said look we're going after the big guys, the big wil small businesses the irs has said, look, we're really going after the big corporations, the multinationals and the partnerships, but that is a concern as they're going to more than double audit rates on those $1 million plus, it could wrap in some small businesses as well. >> robert, thanks for that we'll have a whole lot more on e maetthrks, which are holding onto strong gains and nvidia after the break. more "squawk on the street" still ahead.

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with a partner that put♪ ♪ou first. ♪ ♪ stock setting all-time high as nvidia and tech seeing gains. bob pisani at post 9 watching an interesting day. >> it's fun to see the hype might actually match the expectations because if you look at most of this noo highs we're seeing is largely because of the tech sector.

look at the major movers in the technology area. important thing about nvidia, it's number three on the s&p 500. it's mbehind microsoft and apple new highs on the big semiconductor stocks i have also noted, besides this, there is interesting momentum in insurance names. it's not the only things moving. there are stocks that move up to the upside g's been on the tear since the start of the year. we have seen huge moves up in insurance like hartford with excellent results. this has important implications for berkshire, reporting on saturday big component is on the insurance and not just geico they own a lot of different companies in the insurance space. of course, they're buying back stock on top of that keep an eye on the insurance names. we've seen move in waste management, for example, the little engine that keeps going up every single day. there are sectors of the market outside of technology doing

well i want to focus on japan, finally, the nikkei 225, which is a price-weighted index of large companies in japan, has hit a new high thank you. we got a chart when i got here in 1990, the summer of 1990, japan owned everything in the world. it's hard to describe. the nikkei 25 you're looking at here hit 39,000 in december of 1989 i was hired five or six months later. mitsubishi owned rockefeller center at the time, where our headquarters is for nbc. a japanese businessman owned pebble beach golf course it seemed leak they were going to buy everything in the world six months later, everything fell apart the nikkei was down 40% at the end of 1990. and ultimately was down 80% by 2009 80%. that's what happened in the great depression 1929 to 1932, the stock market dropped 80% in the united states that's what happened in japan,

but it took much longer. it took three years in the u.s it took over 20 years for it to bottom out eventually. long, slow decline now they've finally been coming up there are two main reasons number one, a weak he yen has been a big help to them and, number two, the a.i. revolution. many of their companies that are here, like, for example, softbank, which owns the vision fund and essentially owns and controls a.r.m., big factor in their comeback they are very, very big players in the world market. tokyo electron, one of the biggest capital egypt companies in the world trades in japan, doesn't trade here important thing is, think of applied materials. they're like the applied materials of asia, essentially you see the move here. if you want to own this, look at the ewj. this is a market cap weighted etf. this owns all the big traditional companies, honda, toyota, as well as softbank. there have been huge inflows into the last six months as people have sensed what's been

going on if you want a market cap -- a weighted for currency, look at the wisdom tree. this hedges out currency effects. the bottom line here, carl, is here is a country finally emerging from three decades of disinflation and reinvestment is finally paying off and that weak yen also helps a lot really something to see. it's good to see somebody else besides the united states doing well on an investment basis. >> we'll talk in a bit. the next hour, ceo of synopsis on "money movers" continues in a moment. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to

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welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla deirdre bosa joins us from 1 market in san francisco. >> the ceos of frontier and synopsys as well as jmp securities let's start with a look at where stocks are holding onto strong gains today. the s&p 500 touching a fresh all-time high up 1.5%. the