i'm going to put this behind me. i need to put this nightmare behind me. ♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines nvidia adding $277 billion to its market cap smashing the record for value added in a single session and powering stock market highs across three continents. and stanchart jumps and investors cheer for a $1 billion buyback. the lender can continue its run

according to the ceo >> we hit the strategic targets. most of them were nailed in 2023 the rest will be done quickly if not already. good set of results. good strong growth we look to that growth to extend. allianz is trading in the red as soft guidance fails to impress investors, but the ceo is striking a bullish note on the year to come >> the life insurance business is stable. you saw the results which is strong we he had massive increases in the rates on the book that are coming through this year is going to look as good as last year. and reddit filing to become public in the coming weeks

good morning let's get straight to some breaking news data in the form of the german february ifo data. we have the german business rising in the month of february. that's good news obviously we have been getting bad news for the german economy lately the ifo index at 85.5 points this is in line with forecast. euro/dollar not moving sitting at 108.22. we got the flash phi and manufacturing pmi for germany yesterday and they were poor we heard from the bank that the german economy is likely already in recession let's get back to the top

st story. nvidia led the biggest one-day increase in market cap ever with the leap of $277 billion that move he cleclipsed meta's move and adding $514 billion in market cap year to date, nvidia stock is up by a whopping 58%. i want to show you the other tech stocks we are talking about here apple is up by 1.1%. nvidia is up by 8% the rest of the magnificent seven also doing really well a look at european equities. there you go we are seeing gains today, but really not very convincing gains. the ftse 100 is up 0.1%. the smi is bouncing back from yesterday's nestle weakness and up 0.4%. the cac 40 is hitting another record high this morning dax is pulling back just a

little bit when it comes to the sectors, this is the picture. telco and utilities under performing on the other side of the board, chemicals and autos showing leadership chemicals is on the back of basf a quick check of u.s. futures this morning after the excitement this week, it looks like u.s.markets will take a breather here. s&p is off 3 points. the nasdaq is off 33 points. the dow jones industrial average is set to fall by 3. let's get more on the market moves with dan scott great to catch up with you what do you make after the stellar gains for the markets and record highs and take profits or do you add on to your equity exposure? >> good morning, carolin i would say there is a bit of momentum in the market

in fact, you can see there are a few drivers on the positive side and positive momentum side one being the $6 trillion you have in money market funds and that being the liquidity support for markets. as long as earnings don't disappoint and earnings are rehe advised higher, there is room to move i would say given that the macro fundamentals have started to improve, that is a further supportive element to the equity markets. you know, we're quite happy to let the overweight u.s. equities run at the moment and we reduced the under weweigh in eurozone equities we feel that we have seen a trough in economic momentum in the eurozone there is potential catchup for those reasons. >> you talked about earnings

having to still come in quite strong what are some of the other risks to the market right now, dan would it be policy mistakes or valuations overall could it be whichina or geopolitics? >> there are lots of risks out there. the risks mostly around cre. i think the market is fairly aware of what is going on in cre. the spillover effect could be underestimated i think the regional banks in the u.s., which make up 80% of lending to commercial developers, could have a big npl issue. if you have interest rates not coming down any time soon because if you have the situation that commercial property developers need to refinance at 5.25%, you will see a spike in the default rate t.

it is not just cre on the one side, you have the revenue aspect that has impeded with the vacancy rates in new york as high as 50% and at the same time coming closer to the point where they need to refinance the debt, that will squeeze the companies. you have other companies financed on zero interest rate policy financial metrics and now getting to a point where they need to refinance. if interest rates don't come down, those parts of the economy are likely going to contribute to the spike in the default rate which we expect. although we are constructive on equities overall, i have to say we don't necessarily think risk of recession is gone here because there are a number of elements out there like the slowing of the u.s. consumer

that could, you know, slow down economic momentum. >> what does it all mean for a potential pivot toward fixed income if you look at the yields, dan, this should be the year for fixed income you can play to both sides you can play to the yields and play capital what is the sense? >> we are in a nuanced picture we have been in a manufacturing recession globally the u.s. manufacturing has been weak maybe that recession is now over because you see global manufacturing pmi recovering and starting to trend higher again at the same time, what's been keeping us afloat is the u.s. consumer services pmi is starting to trend down it is a two-speed economy we're looking at here. if you see the increase in delinquencies on auto loans and

increase in delinquencies on credit cards in the u.s., that is a clear sign that the u.s. consumer is slowing down where your positions are is a big thing to keep in focus to your question of asset class allocation, over equities or bonds, the tricky part is bonds markets are euphoric in pricing. you have no spread on investment grade credit 100 basis points that's nothing call me greedy i like to see spreads widen quite a bit, especially on high yields and also on investment grade before i lean out the window and start taking risks in the bond market. where we are positioned at the moment in the bond market is in government bonds if you can get a four handle on the ten-year u.s. treasury, you need to lock that in there are a lot of unknowns at the moment one thing we know is current rate of interest is too high

just given where we are on inflation, the real interest rate is 2.5% that's incredibly restrictive monetary policy. it is just a matter of time until something breaks or you get a significant slowdown while we're not clear on the timing and you see the side pushing up the expectation for the fed to cut, rates will come down they are just way too high if we have inflation running at 3%, then 5.5% is way too high. >> dan scott says be greedy with high yield and investment grade. i want to talk about the liquid space here we talked about the liquid side. asset diversifier. where do you want to be? >> i think private markets are important for all investors.

i think managing the balance with liquid and ill-liquid is a tricky one you obviously need to get an ill-liquidity premium. also private credit is an interesting area to allocate to in private markets there's been a flood of money into private credit and it has turned into an asset class you need could be mindful of the valuations definitely infrastructure is the issue with the long-term outlook and good area for allocation. >> dan, thank you so much. have a great weekend see you soon dan scott at vontobel. let's push on with the survey from the ecb. european inflation expectations for the year have risen with the outlook elevated the medium-12 month cpi ticked

higher to 3.3% the three-year outlook sits at 2.5% that is above the ecb target goldman sachs analysts say they no longer expect a u.s. rate cut in may as policymakers caution on cutting too soon. fed governor lisa cook says the economy has become too sided and the central bank needs more confidence vice chair phillip jefferson said weaker employment could become risks chris waller says they need more time that inflation is cooling before making a decision we had data out yesterday with the u.s. jobless claims fell this month. the flash composite pmi shows a

slower pace of expansion with manufacturing output rising to 51.5 our u.s. colleagues will have more on the state of the u.s. economy with the ceo of jpmorgan chase, jamie dimon tune in for that interview on monday. let's get back to the earnings story look at standard charter with a $1 billion share buyback after posting an 18% jump of profit in 2023 the lender struck a cautious tone this year shares up nicely almost by 8%. ceo bill winters gave his thoughts on the chinese economy as standard charter was the second lender to report an impairment from the activities

in the country take a listen. >> china grew 5.2% gdp that's not a bad number. >> are you sure it grew 5.2% that is the official figure? i see bad trade data and unemployment data. >> the headline for standard charter, we set the number two years ago and doubled. we are $100 million short at $1.3 billion why are we growing the gdp growth is slowing. i feel okay about that our job is to connect china to the rest of the world. as the economy in china is slower, our on-shore business is growing in mid single digits allianz reports a fourth quarter profit of a 17% rise

the company is targeting 50 billion euro operating profit in 2024 the ceo said the company has seen growth across multiple businesses. >> all of our segments are going very strong which is very important for allianz. we are diversified across all segments to answer your question, people expect us to lead in the world as well as asset management in the fourth quarter caught up with remarkable results. to talk about flows, it continues into this year and the first few weeks we had more flows in the funds business than all of last year the business doing well. >> a comment on the share price this morning allianz shares are down 3% the citi analyst saying he likes the dividend policy, but the size of the buyback is disappointing along with the

weaker performance in pnc. let's push on to volvo volvo cars are down 6.3% they are planning to distribute 60% of its stake in polestar to shareholders worth 9.5 billion crowns it will retain an 18% stake in the ev manufacturing the invovolvement was criticized on the negative resources. basf is spllashing $1 billin of losses and further job cuts t.cuts it is facing a 21% drop of sales in 2023. still coming up on the show, as the ukraine warr enters its

third year, we will bring you an update on the conflict that's after this short break. switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. take full control of your brand with your own custom store. scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel. and sell more with the best converting checkout on the planet. a lot more. take your business to the next stage when you switch to shopify.

hensoldt posted an increase in the fourth quarter business the company guided toward a lower than expected revenue of $2 billion for the current year. the u.s. will impose 500 sanctions on russia and enablers today. the largest set of penalties since russia invaded ukraine two years ago. the sanctions will be rolled out from the treasury and state department are in response to the death of opposition leader alexi navalny. president biden met with navalny's wife and daughter on thursday as the family seeks to step up pressure on vladimir putin. they penalized officials at the prison where navalny died. speaking after the meeting, president biden said it is clear the fight in navalny's name is

not yet over >> i had the honor of meeting with alexi navalny's wife and daughter to state the obvious, he is a man of incredible courage. it is amazing how his wife and daughter are emulating that. we will announce sanctions against putin who is responsible for his death tomorrow for one thing that was made clear to me is that she will continue to fight. saturday marks the second anniversary of the war in ukraine. the eu passed a support package worth 50 billion euro at the beginning of the month, but the u.s. funding is in limbo

chancellor olof scholz has asked european nations to step up for ukraine. annette filed this report. >> reporter: ukraine is entering its third year billions of weapons and military equipment and intelligence support has been septent to kyi but countries are still increasing military spending in the bid to further shore up the security in germany, berlin has sworn to double aid to ukraine in 2024 and become the backbone of defense in europe. >> they made a fundamental decision to intervene in ukraine and to rebuild their military. the defense minister has now talked about having the country ready for war. that is another fundamental change that means they need to spend money to make that work.

they committed to the midterm budgeting process to make 2% of the gdp. >> reporter: a membnumber of des companies are at the heart of the drive. in 2024, uk pledged drones and france as well. hensoldt is at the forefront o the export of weapons to ukraine. >> we started very early to ramp up production. it came from a kind of manual integration and now to a production here. this means three years ago, we delivered five of the pieces of

equipment. now we will go beyond 15 we ramp up our production significantly in a short t timeframe. the last delivery was december of last year they already in use. they are in the battlefield. >> reporter: in a war fought over land and sky, air security could be the difference between victory or tremendous loss >> i will introduce you to the air defense radar. it is made to detect threats and defend citizens or critical infrastructure from threats. you want to protect your forces and you want to protect logistics to defend your country which is important >> reporter: chancellor olof scholz has called for large-scale production of weapons in it germany and in europe this comes at a tough time for the german economy and poses more challenges for the unstable coalition. european leaders are focused on

forces from outside the continent with particular concern with the u.s. election and the possibility of donald trump's return to the white house. >> several things that are driving the process such as the election in the u.s. and possibly trump who said he would not come to the aid of the europeans if there was war it takes germany to take a role in europe they have not taken before >> annette joins us from frankfurt. on the one hand, you have the huge question he of financing and the other is an issue of staffing >> reporter: yes, exactly. there are a couple of bot bottlenecks coming production and financing the issue. the question is if the military

spending can be off balance sheet. that debate has started. given the constitutional court back in november ruled against those finances, that remains to be in question and there is the scarcity of skilled labor. it is not easy to ramp up production in the military industry it is different at hensoldt. it is a cluster for engineers down in the city in that region. they have been strong in that field. hensoldt has dual uses goods they can produce just because they think the demand will becoming to ramp up production for the

industry overall with others means there needs to be orders from the government or elsewhere. that is crucial to ramp up production carolin. >> thank you the german government expect the economy to grow 0.2% this year down from the forecast of 1.3% that's a big downgrade germany was the worst performing economy last year shrinking 0.3% the economic downturn deepened in february as flash pmi fell to 46.1 the eighth straight month of contr contraction. on a programming note, annette will speak with joachim nagel this afternoon we will have that interview at 14:30 cet. still coming up on the show, lng could be firmly in focus as goldman sachs eyes the start of the new mega cycle of green

energy projects. we will bring you more after this short break

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welcome to "street signs." i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines nvidia adding $277 billion in market cap. standard chart surges to a jump as investors cheer plans for a $1 billion buyback bill winters says the bank can continue its run >> we set out three-year plans two years ago. most were nailed in 2023 the rest will be done quickly if not already. the good set of results. good, strong look to extend. and allianz has a record operating profit, but there is a bullish note on the year to

come >> the life insurance business is stable. you see the newer accounting results and cash distribution is strong we had massive increases and effective rates on the book that are now coming through this year will look at good as last year. reddi, it is filing in new r in the first ipo for social media since pinterest in 2019. good morning if you are just tuning in, a quick check of the european equity markets whethe what a week for the markets except the ftse 100. we see strong gains for the indices and another record high for the cac 40 the dax is pulling back by a point or two overall, sentiment is still getting that afterglow or boost

from the nvidia numbers yesterday. let's talk about the currency markets we are seeing little change in the euro/dollar on the back of the ifo numbers. the german business sentiment did rise in february looking at some economists' comments and they are saying this is not a turning point. this is an incremental set of good news. elsewhere, we are seeing the dollar/yen at 150.75 we have comments fromchristine lagarde later today. that is something for investors to chew on same applies to the yield space. when it comes to european government bonds, this is the picture. not a lot of movement here specifically when it comes to the bund yields. 2.476% here. all eyes on the lagarde comments we still have a couple hours to

go until the trading session in the u.s. i want to let you know what futures look like. maybe fatigue setting in dow jones industrial average set to fall 19%. the gains from nvidia yesterday and now the s&p is set to fall s&p and nasdaq posted the best day in more than a year yesterday. the dow seeing the best day in 2024 and record highs for the dow and s&p on the back of that blowout nvidia report. energy build bills are set l to the lowest level since the invasion of ukraine by russia. 2025 is expected to see a wave of lng projects and what goldman sachs is calling the start of the new mega cycle we have head of natural

resources at goldman sachs joining us to talk us through the report mikaela, the back drop is the energy crisis europe has gone through. there is light at the end of the tunnel >> there is light at the end of the tunnel there is more than that. the energy crisis will completely unwind in the next couple of years. we have gas prices going down and we believe another 50% on the back of the wave of lng. this is going to be tremendously helpful to the european consumer and industry that suffered that so much in 2022 and 2023 and the end of the european narrative of industrialization. >> it is four-to-five years to go to market once the announcement is started. is it too little too late for the german consumers and corporates >> as you are saying, it took

four-to-five years to build it it is coming late. it would have been better if it had come two years ago it is not coming too little. we think energy prices going down another 50% from here means giving back to the average european family 200 euro per month. that is 4% of disposable income. i think it is going to be super helpful for germany which suffered so much from the energy crisis a little bit late, but not too little >> we are seeing the talk about the industrialization and the exodus of the german corporates and industrial sector out of germany to the rest of the world. even within europe for the time being, until we see weaker prices on the energy and power and gas coming through,

what's the transition here will it have to be german government subsidies or subsidies in general >> no, we don't think subsidies are needed any more. as you can see in this chart, what we are seeing is certainly an increase in renewable power that will be helpful the bulk of the solution will come from liquified natural market which is growing to the scale that is unprecedented. to give you an idea, new lng capacity will replace more than two times all of the volumes lost into europe i think in the meantime, yes, we still will have relatively high gas prices we have one more winter before that lng wave comes through which could be volatile. it is one winter left. beyond it, there are great rays of hope with energy prices falling further. >> if lng is coming to the

rescue, is the need for the continue rollout of renewables lower? >> no, no. i think the two can grow together and brilliantly go together if you think of the most af affordable renewable, solar with the costs going down, that is perfect for the day, but need gas for the evening and seasonality. i think it can provide the long-term solution to the european energy crisis with lower imports and more domestic production and jobs created. what is a bit more challenging, i find, is offshore wind, which sits higher on the cost curve and is clearly creating enough of the question. >> let's push on and talk about the european carbon market there are a couple of changes

here we are seeing the sea ban coming in 2026. we are seeing the free credits phased out what does it mean? >> thank you, carolin. it is an important question. the carbon market is mostly driven by power generation and economics of coal-to-gas switching and low price. the carbon market has collapsed in the last few months this is very backward looking. the decarbonization of power is one component which i think will require the decarbonization of heavy industry as the carbon market evolves into the decarbonization of the industry, the price is no longer set by the coal-to-gas switching. it is set by carbon capture and storage for the heavy industries like cement and steel and aluminum and chemicals then the price needs to go back

$100 per ton this is why in two-to-three years, we are bullish on the market as it transitions to price in the decarbonization of industry we have the view of the border adjustment coming on in a couple of years time which would protect the heavy industry. >> before we let you go, leave us with the top picks in the sector >> i think three things. first of all, lower energy prices are verypositive for th european consumer with chemical and heavy industry for germany that is the view and they are consistent with our strategies raising all of the factors in the last week. i would own the big integrated oil and gas companies in europe. 12% cash return to shareholders and mostly linked to oil

>> great to have you on with us. thank you so much. the head of natural resources research at goldman sachs. completely different story, but exciting one, a spacecraft built and flown by texas-based company intuitive machines landed near the moon's south pole on thursday the first u.s. touchdown on the moon in a half century and first ever to be completed by a private company. shares are seen higher in pre-market look at this wow. up by almost 44% nbc's tom costello has more. >> reporter: leave it to a 14-foot row but to stick the first u.s. moon landing since apollo. >> we can confirm without a doubt that our equipment is on the surface of the moon. >> reporter: intuitive machines is now the first private company to successfully land on the

moon. >> houston, we found our home. >> reporter: now trouble shooting a communication issue >> liftoff >> reporter: it launched on the spacex rocket seven days ago sending back spectacular photos of earth on board is six nasa experiments. the ice zone makes it a target when astronauts return in a few years. this is the south pole of the moon we saw the sun hanging very low on the horizon >> shadows are so long >> reporter: it cut costs, nasa hired 14 private companies to conduct experiments on the moon. >> it is difficult to land on the moon there is no air. you can't use power chutes >> reporter: the lander will

have 12 to 13 days before the solar power runs out tonight, just getting there is mission accomplished tom costello, nbc news still coming up on the show, just over 250 days until the u.s. election. that's a long time only one day until the south carolina primary we will bring you the latest on what to expect after this short break. why choose a sleep number smart bed? can i make my side softer? i like my side firmer. sleep number does that. now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus 10% off all bases. ends monday. switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. take full control of your brand with your own custom store. scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel.

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welcome back just a quick update on nvidia shares pre-market. remember they were following the blowout numbers yesterday up 16%. surging to the record high this morning, they are up another 2% we'll take it. moderna shares with a surprise fourth quarter profit boosted by deferred revenue and cost cutcuts revenue at $2.1 billion as the covid vaccination dropped.

stephane bancel explained when he saw the company returning to sales growth >> we have a very, very important late-stage pipeline. we showed last year positive data for the program and we should file it this year for product launch in 2025 we are expecting the data for next gen covid product this year, we should get the bulk of the product in phase two data which is positive we will be able to file it once that data is received. when you think about 2024 and 2025, we will get the company back into sales growth we will get toward 2026 and profitability. we are excited about the products reddit has filed to list on the new york stock exchange in the first social media ipo since pinterest back in 2019 the company is expected to debut in march making it the first

major tech ipo of the year the filings listed openai ceo sam altman as the largest shareholder. he previously served as ceo of the company in 2014. switching to politics. south carolina heads to the polls tomorrow for the republican presidential primary. latest polls have former president trump out in front with 58% and nikki haley in her home state 23 points behind. haley has vowed to stay in the race no matter the results let's get perspective on this with our analyst at morning consult. eli, good morning. >> good morning. >> i'm wondering that she is lagging by 23 points, nikki haley, of course what did she do wrong? i didn't see major mistakes. is it really about donald trump's i mpenetrable support?

>> it is hard to run beagainst h most person person in the party. he has been a clear frontrunner. when you are running against somebody who is beloved in the party, it is hard to make inroads. our tracking shows trump leading with 81% support among republican primary voters. nikki haley has 18%. it is a little better in her home state, but not by a lot our survey shows trump doubling her vote share a lot of other surveys are showing the same thing even in her home state that should be a decisive blow to lose your home state. that is the stakes the republican party sees or donors see in the 2024 election and p the idea of el evating donald trump once more.

>> we have the two nominees on the democrats and republican side and we still have 250 days to go. that's an eternity what can the two candidates do to keep the momentum going and to keep the voter excited? >> donald trump is going to be facing a lot of scrutiny in the coming months with his legal problems that will be a big problem that's the criminality side. then the old side which is a problem for joe biden. most voters think he is too old. 68% of the elect torate think he is too old same with donald trump joe biden has to show vigor. the state of the union address will be a big part of the attempted reset for biden. it will be tough the thing that joe biden has going for him is

counterintuitively his problem in the polling where he is trailing donald trump is he is not doing as well with his base from 2020 as donald trump those seem like the kind of voters he might be able to bring back into his coalition in the coming months, especially as donald trump takes prominence on the stage. a lot of voters who are not republican primary voters have not been tuned in to every piece of what donald trump has said over the last year or so as he ran his republican primary campaign he said things that would have rejected him in 2020 he has a big challenge ahead reminding the coalition in 2020 and why they did not like donald trump in the first place. >> biden really is in a bit of a pickle here. he gets no credit for the economy, which is booming, or the stock market, which is booming at a record high as well obviously, there are all these questions about his mental

acuity and age what does he have to focus on as he moves the needle here is it immigration? >> that is a big deal. one of the worst policy issues he faced as president. even when he was popular in january in 2021. he was in the red in polling on immigration. the efforts on asylum may be elevating and those would be one step toward it speaker johnson in the house suggests that biden takes executive action and attacks him for considering that congress gave him a tee ball when the house rejected the house bipartisan deal. democrats needed a way to push republicans into a corner on the issue. house republicans took the bait. it is not changing perceptions on voters over immigration which

is an issue rising on the minds of swing state voters. it is likely to continue to do so in the future the state of the union is a big moment to address that joe biden heneeds to attac trump. >> eli, do you think the democrats would consider replacing biden on the ticket? who would that person be >> i think that is a hard lift at this point in getting on ballot a convention coup is detrimental to the party in riding with biden this year, democrats will stick with him to

the finish line. >> eli, our analyst at morning consult. thank you. moving on. the european council adopted a 13th package of sanctions against russia focused on limiting the access to the military technology and listing 200 companies and individuals involved in the russian war efforts in ukraine i want to show you what is happening with european markets. the ftse 100 is just showing a modest gain here we got the numbers from standard charter. they were better than expected that is boosting the ashare pric to 8%. cac 40 is sitting at 7,929 points dax is also showing a very, very small gain here. we had a couple of earnings out this morning allianz was not taken well by

the market citi analyst says the size of the buyback was a disappointment on the other hand, basf coming out with numbers this is a chemicals company and they were clearly better than expected smi is recovering from the nestle weakness yesterday bouncing back 0.4% i want to show you the markets and what they have done for the week cac 40 is up 2%. dax is showing a nice weekly gain of 1.5% and take a look at the ftse mib in italy down 2.7% you see ftse 100 is off 0.3% for the week we had an issue with hsbc with the impairment charge coming from china and also with the mining stocks. rio tinto and glencore with

issues there and the commodity prices coming down that very much impacting the capital returns and also the earnings i want to come back to standard charter. up by 8.256% that really was a lot of strength here. obviously, the ceo was on the show this morning and he was upbeat about the chinese economy. we did see impairment charge, but that is clearly not what investors are focusing on. u.s. futures here with a bit of profit taking at the start of the trading session. dow jones industrial average falling 5. the nasdaq off 40 points off the monster rally yesterday. that's it for the show i'm carolin roth "worldwide exchange" is up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." we start with one day and $277 billion shares of nvidia doing something for the first time ever after blockbuster earnings the check on the stock move in a moment. optimism in nvidia sparking a global stock market rally. we will see if that rally can hold heading into the open. and throwing some cold water on the rally remains with the fed and comments from two top officials pushing of