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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  February 23, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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whether we're starting to see that transcend to services as well >> interestingly, i was at macy's and abercrombie and abercrombie was more busy as is the stocks. >> makes sense all of the major averages finishing higher what a wild week it has been. >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight another set of records on wall street the s&p rising above the 100 market, 151 market there for the first time the dow added another 60 plus points the nasdaq hit the highest level since november of 2021 before the day ends in the red but will the winners that propelled the week's gains keep the rally running into the new week? we'll debate that. plus, stealthy staples
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the group quietly posting economy sized gains and the leading leading the major s&p even beating out big technology by the time things are done. are these stocks, you know. >> another friday night edition of would you rather? we're hitting the big market winners against their underperforming rivals if you had to pick just one, which one would it be? the traders lay out their choices. i'm dominic chu in for melissa lee. on the desk, tim seymour, carter braxton worth, bono and mike khouw. first we'll start with what might be the most important stock in the market. no, it's not nvidia. sure, nvidia's had a big week. the stock touched a $2 trillion market cap level for the first time today on continued follow through from its blowout earnings the company seeing data center revenues more than quintuple in
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the latest quarter and gave such strong guidance that one analyst raised his target price to $1400 per share. that's 75% more up side from here but a smaller semiconductor stock might be even more consequential, at least according to one of our traders. it produces one of the world's most advanced chips and is opening the first plant in japan this weekend its products are being used in everything from autonomous driving to artificial intelligence what is it tim? why don't you tell us. >> look, nvidia's the most important company. taiwan semi, at least for the market nvidia is taiwan semi to me is one of the companies that i think many folks and the world, especially focus on japan where they're going to open their first plant. fabrication. this is really important for japan to get back into the semigame where they were a dominant player in the '80s,
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'90s taiwan semis making the most advanced semiconductors. at a time the u.s. is luring them to intel, build plants, fabrication, foundry, that's the story. at a time when people are very concerned about u.s. china geopolitics, people worried about concentrations and semiconductors are a strategic asset, dynamic certainly around the economies. japan has recognized that. taiwan semi said arizona buildout, u.s. is slowing down what's going on in japan is record timing. very efficient buildout and the japanese and taiwan semi are saying this is a great story for us, too. there's a lot of competition to lure taiwan semi who, again, is a contractor for a number of players around the world i would make an argument it's one of the most important companies in the world that obviously people know about. you have to understand what's going on right now it's a mad scramble globally for
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semiconductors obviously nvidia was the story of the week and it should be. >> if there's anything that we learned during the supply chain crisis, it's that supply chains matter, right? bono, taiwan semi strategically has to be one of those that's huge. >> absolutely. the overhang on the stock is that's weighed the stock i think strategically it is one of those assets. i will say with the whole geopolitical overhang and the move towards on shoring domestically, there might be some market share taken. i do think that's several years out. the cap ex and others will take some time. i do think people have their eye on this ball in particular with that said, up until that time, with data centers and
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inference type computing, driving up demand for these chips, i do think taiwan is in a good strategic place and will be in a better strategic place once they're able to develop themselves. >> mike khouw, can we go to you now? i want to talk to you about where you're seeing action do you see traders sizzling around technology names specifically within chips? is this the one? is nvidia, taiwan semi, which ones are seeing the most action? >> well, nvidia's definitely seeing the most action, no doubt about that in fact, we use that as an input along with some of our fundamental analysis when we're trying to pick which stocks to be in and we're in nvidia. i'd obviously have to say although i have to admit i'm getting antsy here we've had quite a run. it's feeling a little bit parabolic to me. it's easy to be kind of like a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.
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taiwan semi, it hasn't gotten much play. remarkable growth play 10% analyzed eps growth. this trades 100,000 contracts a day. that's the equivalent of 10 million shares you're definitely getting some bullish flow there it's seeing double the call volume let's talk, carter, momentum. >> long term cat i was picturing that. >> visceral. >> rocking chairs. >> should they worry do people feel like they're long tailed cats with this tech trade? >> hard to know. one thing is important taiwan semi and asml are the two big non-u.s. names very important to the whole space, not to say there aren't others, but these are the two. taiwan semi just this week was able to eke out all time highs versus tsm, which is the adr dominating dollars it's still some 10% below its all-time high and the presumption is they are playing
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catchup. >> so let's talk a little bit more about why it's so important for this trade and everything else tim, is there something to be said for whether or not this thing is over done >> well, you know what, i'm not going to get in there and say over done. the numbers speak for themselves the valuation if you do it on a revenue basis, you have been doing this all week. i'll just point out i think there are other parts of the market that are seeing it's not all about nvidia if you look at where we are, in fact, the dow has held serve over the s&p over the last six months we want be to talk about the broadening of the market and the dynamic, what you've seen, we know about disney's numbers, we know about gm's numbers. walmart had great numbers. they talked all about the dynamics around higher ticket charges, whether they have inventory back i look at other parts of the markets. industrials. financials have outperformed the
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s&p. if you took away nvidia, that's a big take away, this was their week, it's a very interesting market here. i would make an argument that we have gotten some of that broadening. >> the semis despite their fantastic performance, they still have not recouped their losses from the dotcom peak but you still are not able to overcome the losses associated with a dotcom peak to present versus the entire tech sector. >> it's interesting, mike. the other point here as well is a lot of traders look at semiconductor stocks as a leading indicator for tech and by proxy the entire market just how important will this tech trade be specifically with chip stocks to this narrative if there is a bold one going forward? >> so i think actually the point that tim was making is a really important one. you know, people complain that the market has been led by a relative handful much stocks, and that's largely been true then of course he pointed out walmart obviously has been a
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well-performing stock and they have good results. you know, we saw 8% and 12% better numbers on revenues and eps there. the interesting thing to me was actually home depot which also reported on tuesday morning before the open. this is a name where we've seen four sequential quarters of declining revenues, but what's interesting here is that despite that, the stock actually caught a bid. that's a name that we also own what that indicates to me, when you start seeing people buy news that isn't all that great thinking maybe the worst is behind them, i think that's kind of a positive sign. >> okay. bonowyn, one of the places on the market that's seen the outperformance on the market is materials while energy itself has been a huge underperformer do we like the fact that materials are part of that broadening out story that we're seeing >> i think thematically we do. when you see inflows into materials, you're essentially saying this is like a bullish
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bet on the economy clearly i think all sectors want us to have an economic, robust type of forward-looking thesis with that said, there are still other parts of the market that do give me pause small caps, for example, if we are going to see a real economic follow through, you would expect to see more flow there they have a certain amount of exposure to the banking system and i understand they have their own credit challenges and access to capital challenges, to me that will be the real telltale sign people have bought in fully to the economic narrative. >> one top money manager suggests it's hard to fight nvidia's market force. ben, you heard the conversation. >> step back from a macro
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perspective, taking nvidia with the impacts on the bodder market the beat is over two to one, right? it has a real impact, as we saw. as that's happening, the financial conditions are starting to loosen quite a bit the financial conditions index is at the 2021 high when we had a bubble in the market so that financial conditions is going to affect the economy, as is i think happening maybe to bonowyn's point and carter's point, you see the stocks reacting that are the real economy i think there's something going on from nvidia spilling off to the broader market and to the economy. >> there's a balancing point, right? you have nvidia stock doing what it's doing and interest rates going higher so that's tightening in your fixed income and equity, how does it all play out >> this is interesting one stock can affect interest rate expectations i was looking at that how nvidia
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changed with the stock, what's happening with the rate cuts being priced in. in the last two weeks nvidia has exploded we have taken one rate cut out of the yields, right that's not all nvidia but it's the idea nvidia being the important stock to the economy currently affecting the economy through financial conditions that therefore yields are starting to rise look, we've broken out of the holiday and the 435 today. that does open to a next move higher if the next rate cut gets to be priced out i think nvidia and the effect on the economy and rates are paying attention. >> we're doing nothing on interest rates in terms of expectations really now through almost july. and i guess, ben, good news is good news for stocks it's been good news. that's great to see. one of the new stories that caught my eye today is that the dutch central bankhad a minus
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660% year over year loss and whatever that means. the point is central banks are issuing at a much higher rates and has an interest expense that is far exceeding where they are in interest income the dynamics are that the rest of the world is going to be higher interest rates. japan is rumored to be going in the march meeting to probably really officially moving away from interest rate and yields curve targeting. just thoughts on -- because i agree with you i think yields are going higher. at some point i think equities are going to pay for it. right now it feels very orderly and it feels interesting. >> indeed. i can only move and positioning interest rates but i think to your point, like it's happening globally let's pay attention to looking at china they finally start a rally 10% the start of the month as that stimulus starts to affect their economy for real and so you're getting this bit of an emerging market. global rates are starting to move up.
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i think what we're dealing with is a situation where these rate cuts being priced in, we're clearly overstended where we started the year, being taken back now the scenario is on the table we may not have any rate cuts this year. if i listened to the fed over the past 24 hours, they're getting doubtful they can cut rates. >> they should be. >> right it's not only here, in europe, too. we're probably in a phase here good news driving up yields. obviously at some point you get to tightening, that's not yet happening. >> what is driving up -- at the end of the day, it's always this way. people are expecting something that's not what happens. we heard higher for longer we crossed 5%, what happens? it dropped to 3.8. isn't this the sweet spot for rates. who cares if it's 5 or 4 you drop to 2, something is is wrong. you go to 7%, you have to change sitting here, it shouldn't matter 4%, 4.25.
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it shouldn't matter. >> rates are at neutral, quote, unquote. the economy is growing above potential. inflation is trending down rates are reflecting that sort of neutral level and the fed is at 5 1/2 you are tight with the fed here. i think long term if you are going to go back to the fed's neutral rate or 2 1/2%, then we are in an economy that's far weaker we're sizzling nicely here with rates. you could go back to 5% with the technicals that we're highlighting we're not really overstretched the 7% scenario seems to be unlikely it seems to be more ranging here in this 4, 4.5, up to 5. >> the focus seems to be squarely on rates. one could argue, rightfully so what about the dynamics in the credit market? we were speaking about that a little bit in the greenroom. we haven't seen that credit blow out. to me i would argue that's at least if not as important
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secondarily to in terms of how the market's going to react and what sectiors are going to be in and out of vogue what are those implications for the market and perhaps even the max 7? >> it crowns itself. it's really tight. i think that's really a function of equity. if equity continues to appreciate in value, high yields get tighter and tighter. what you're mentioning in the private credit market, we had a big move of money going into that as companies cannot exit, those rates are really high still. i mean, you talk about private credit, roughly 10 to 15%. high yield yields are roughly 7.5% i do think there's a stress point there. eventually if the companies cannot refinance or are having trouble, that you are getting an issue there in that segment. the public side of the market seems to be signaling if this equity market is this type of
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momentum, spreads are not going to be correct to the up side it will likely get tighter. >> ben emmons, new edge, thank you so much for taking time on friday. >> thank you. meanwhile, it's not just the s&p and dow at record highs. the msci all country world index is higher than the all-time highs it set back in january of 2022 the chart master, carter braxton worth, what are they saying about the international emerging markets and major indices here >> there's a milestone milestones are important the msci all country world index is some $70 trillion versus the s&p, which is almost half that this week it was able to get back to its former high of january of 2022 which is to say global equities have finally recouped all of their losses associated with the 2022 bear market so the question is obviously we saw that the nasdaq composite, you mentioned that, don, is just back to the forces in in the s&p
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which is 5% higher from here is it right to double back and find small cap and look for value or cyclicality or stick with growth while it's dominated by u.s. stocks still is not the same growth aspect of an s&p. let's look at a chart or two and maybe discern it together. and so what you'll see here is the index which, again, is from 24 developed and 24 emerging, about 3,000 stocks again, 70 trillion versus the s&p at 37, 40 trillion right back to a former high. let's put some lines on there. let's annotate it. the what we know is it drops substantially, 29% it's up 40%. that's how the math works. that simply gets you back to the former high. so in principle i would expect a lot of backing and filling here before exceeding a former high you typically contend with it.
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as a milestone, this is the point. it's not been as good as the picture of the s&p, as the picture of mag 7 all equities, as measured by this index, as by its market cap, have only just this week recouped their losses up 2 1/2 years. >> i feel like the international is going to continue to run. i've loved japan this is the week of japan. new records. and i think it's also the idivo is the international itf if someone is investing internationally, the fed that's peaked, dollar that's peaked, with inflation that's peaked, international growth you had decent numbers out of japan exports, you've had china picking it up. i think it's a great time to be investing internationally. >> mike khouw, what do you think? >> i like the emerging markets i like india best of all that hit a 52-week high. that's going to benefit from shifts we're seeing and where
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globalization benefits flow. coming up on the show, thanks, guys sturdy staples sector riding high since october. plus, carvana shares putting the pedal to the medal we'll look under the hood after this. >> announcer: you're watching "fast money" here on cnbc. we'll be right back. not you. you! your business bank account with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy. (♪♪) that's how you business differently. intuit quickbooks. at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work.
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welcome back to "fast money. so much attention this week has focused on, of course, tech. under the radar sectors outperformed big tech. consumer staples, colgate, pal mol live, costco, coca-cola and walmart up soundly as well xlp at levels not seen since august are these stocks investors should be shopping for maybe bonowyn, i'll ask you first. it's cap weighted. walmart is the biggest influence. is consumer staples it >> absolutely.
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you can't be concentrated in nvidia, microsoft, apple, tesla and the rest of the cohort there. so, yeah, i do think particularly if you kind of have an anti type of view, you want something that is going to give you margin of safety there is argument the valuations have reflected that perceived margin of safety the up side is there you have to understand you are investing here because you want a lower beta type of pocket in your portfolio you need to understand you are giving up up side for that if you are willing to make that tradeoff, yes, i think it makes sense. if you are expecting this to outperform the mag five is it now, mag ing every day then it is a bit of a fool's errand. >> carter, big runs in names we know would you believe it >> obviously individual stocks can do well and not do well. as an area of the market, this is an area that has low growth or no growth, both at the top line and earnings spaces
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the sector itself, 6% of the s&p, proctor, costco, coke are probably 1/3 of the entire sector if you look at relative performance, which is what alpha is all about, relative performance peaked basically in '08, '09, and it's been going straight down. we made new 10, 15 year relative lows this week while there always can be a day or two while this is good because apple is struggling, it's just -- we should be able to do better, right? we should be able to work hard and come up with something more timely, more dynamic with greater growth prospects, greater things ahead than these very defensidefensive, classicay defensive stocks in fact, i'll end with this. when we talk about defensive, people say health care is defensive. health care didn't exist 50 years ago. what it was soap and cereal.
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we have biscuit and soup companies 150 years ago. they're very dull companies. >> here you go. >> these guys are dividend payers. >> they are. >> the interest rate picture and relative attractiveness of those dividends maybe is in question. >> at some point in time carter's absolutely right. think of the windows you've had to love staples and hate staples. coming out of covid certainly covid -- staples had a great run. they had pricing power the ability to pass stuff on people were cooking at home. all of this stuff we know about. as we got into the boom boom days into '21 before the fed started percolating, they were under performing for all of '22 staples were fantastic. it is about picking stocks underperform, even that group, those are the places you want to perform. to me these are names either on positioning or interesting hershey's, dynamic around tyson,
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pepsi. these are places you have opportunities. overall, i love walmart here i think walmart is kind of a stock for all seasons because they're kind of a growth stock even in their own space. technology innovation. >> what do you think, mike >> yeah. he just made a point that walmart, costco which is already in this group also both of those are growing at well faster than the economy overall. if you take a look at staples index, staples select sector index overall, this thing is actually trading pretty close to the bottom the trough valuations. for some of the rate reasons you just cited going back for the last ten years if you look at places, you could look at some of the grocers too. these are trading extremely cheap. that creates an immense margin of safety. if you have benefitted from owning nvidia, which we do, you want to own some of these. they create a balance. >> there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. >> announcer: carvana shares putting the pedal to the medal the company soaring back from
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the brink of bankruptcy and is now up nearly 600% from last year is there more gas in the tank to keep this wild ride going higher we'll look under the hood next. plus, we're pitting the market's top dogs against the underdogs in a game of would you rather big tech, big pharma, they duke it out head to head. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq marketplace in times square. we're back right after this.
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welcome back to "fast money. let's get right to our chart of the week it's carvana shares are revving up after the company reported earnings in its first ever, ever annual profit carvana's up nearly 600% in the past year but it's still way below its pandemic highs carter, what's your take on this trade? >> yeah, obviously this is a news related pop, earnings related. we have a chart here it's a gap that for now i think won't be filled any time soon. the real question, of course, this was almost a $400 stock and here it is trading at $69. can it ever, will it ever reach those heights again?
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i would say no and so the question is for more immediate trading, what do you do when you've just been paid handsomely do you stay and then if it gives it all back, that's a mess up? do you sell it all and then it follows through and it keeps going? that's a mess up this is where you do both. you retain and sell calls. >> tim >> companies started in the online auto space, the unit economics have gotten better become a lot more efficient. of a this kind of move i think you're neutral some of this helps buy an auto industry that has had a resurgence internal engine combustion units, people are starting to recognize the profitability. >> it's hard to throw new money here them actually breaking through and reporting positively is certainly a tailwind but this is a situation where you have a high, 30, 33% short interest and negative sentiment leading into
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the print. i tend to think the move is probably done for the interim. if anything, i'd probably be with carter, if i had to get involved, i'd find a way to kind of hedge my bets there >> i can't talk about selling calls without bringing mike in >> yeah, i think that makes a lot of sense, but i also don't think there's a whole lot of up side take a look at the short-term paper. four year debt is trading 78 cents on the dollar. there's a lot of speculation going on here. that accounts for the big spike we saw. coming up on the show, we're pitting the top dogs against the underdogs in the ultimate game of would you rather. plus, it's always good to know your options the khouw and carter digging into next week and lay out a way to play the results. "fast money" is back after this. >> announcer: missed an episode of "fast," catch us on the go.
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here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. welcome back to "fast money. stocks closing out an historic week of gains. two of the three major averages posting records at the closing bell
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the dow ending 60 points higher. the s&p crossing above the 5100 mark for the first time today. meanwhile, the nasdaq closing in the red. all three ended the week higher. one stock to watch is warner brothers discovery tumbling nearly 10% after delivering disappointing earnings results the company didn't give cash flow guidance but said the max turned a profit for the first time last year. lots of notable winners last year would you rather stick with the winners or bet on a bounce back elsewhere? let's start with the semiconductors nvidia's up nearly 60% while intel has lost 14% tim, would you rather? >> i mean, this is almost not fair this is the davie versus goliath game and also we just spent a whole block in the a block talking about nick stoll and the virtues here i'll take intel i think i would rather based on the progress the foundry day, process, 18a,
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dynamics it's a five-year process for a company that i think is very much under owned they talked about microsoft as a new foundry customer so these are very, very small victories. there's no comparison to where nvidia is but this is a company that has been priced as such. >> that is a man with a good heart. he begrudgingly picked the new kid in the basketball pickup game kudos to tim show me the money. it's all about gpus, a.i., they have delivered on earnings and guided that was the concern i don't think there's a question. >> banks jpmorgan hitting another record today while morgan stanley is down more than 7% this year. mike khouw, what do we think about the banks? >> yeah. i think i'm going with jpmorgan here i mean, i think this is -- i mean, look, morgan stanley, they've done a lot of interesting things they've migrated more towards asset management that creates a tailwind on
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elevated prices. they get paid in fees on aum at the end of the day jpmorgan is the name to be in in this space. >> carter, it's always been called the best of breed. >> that's just it. put these numbers in perspective. from the dotcom peak to present, jpmorgan was 6 of 0, it's now 180. it's triple. guess what morgan stanley is it's the exact same price. it's gone nowhere. do you stick with best in breed or do you say, hey, morgan stanley is so bad, made no progress in 24 years my hunch is to go with morgan stanley. it's just been so bad. >> be sure to catch cnbc's exclusive interview with j.p. morgan chase ceo jamie dimon, monday, 12:30 p.m. eastern time. must-watch tv. pfizer is down 3%. mike khouw, arma, what do you
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think? >> lilly there's two things that matter one is you want to see growth. pfizer had a flash in the pan with the vaccines and fell down when it came to obesity and diabetes drugs relative to lilly. that is the growth area. if a.i. is a growth area in semi face, obesity is the -- >> tim >> i'm in the same fight bonowyn had me picking the new kid i'll put this on my team they announced the revenues better than expected all about less spend r&d is not what you want them to do i think the pipeline is interesting. the dynamic is this is a company that's been priced as if their covid business was their only business and they've invested a lot. i'm long the name. >> let's circle back to big tech melt at meta is on a tear. outperforming alphabet carter, what do you think?
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>> google has returned to its former high and is contending with that. meta has been the big outperformer go with the laggard and play for catchups i'm going to say google over the other. >> all right bonowyn, what do we think? >> admittedly, i like both of these companies. meta outperforms google's business is much larger revenue number is essentially twice as much but meta's gross margin is probably 30%higher than that of google. if there is a pull back in ad spend, those numbers that they delivered were remarkable, i tend to think if there's a pull back in ad spend, they will likely be the last person to hurt in that situation. >> i don't think many people remember what cambridge analytica was. >> a double dose of "options action." we lay out options plays to trade those names. that's coming up next. and can you believe the bounce in beijing stocks we're heading overseas for this trade in just a few.
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call the number on your screen. welcome back to "fast money. another huge week of earnings on deck the sum of the og oa traders with us tonight. we wanted to lay down how to play some of those names with options. let's kick it off with salesforce reporting wednesday carter, what are the charts telling you? >> you have one chart and this is a circumstance similar to google and meta. a lot have exceeded them, meta, a lot are approaching former highs like google. our thinking is it pops on
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earnings and returns to that high of some two years ago that would imply about a 6 to 7% move higher. >> mike khouw, what's the trade on salesforce? >> salesforce, the stock has seen appreciation. what has not seen appreciation is the price since the '21 highs we have seen revenues increase by 62% right now we're seeing the options market implying the move of 7%. they are fairly if maybe a little bit highly priced we're long the name. it calls for a risk reversal is the way to play this i was looking out to april basically you're going to sell the down side put and up side call to help finance the purchase of an at the money call it was the 270, 300, 330 basically figuring once it gets to the prior high it might contend with it. that's why we don't mind selling up side there. >> let's move on to lowe's reporting tuesday morning.
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carter, what do the charts say >> this is an instance of a pretty substantial laggard percing up showing good, relative strength. my thinking is higher we have a chart. you have what you call converging trend lines so you're at the point, apex the formation where you get a resolution i've drawn the arrow up. many might say that's the wrong direction, some may say it's a down that's the market, i'm a buyer. >> what's the trade? >> we own this and deeppot. this is trading at less than 18 times. i was also looking out to april buying an atthe money call and financing that with the sale of two nearer dated options in this case march like the call spread risk reversal before and looking at the near dated options 220, 230, 240. >> tim, what do we think about
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these? >> home depot is cautious in their guide. lowe's is cautious diy pro strength home depot has been outperforming. carter brings up a move higher in the lowe's chart. home depot is breaking out i stay there >> bonowyn, of the two trades, what do we think >> in terms of the trades, i like when mike comes up with the trades where he's selling shorter dated option the and buying longer option ality. you essentially own the optionality in the whole package. >> mike khouw, last word for you here >> that's basically the idea we want a little bit of convexity out long compared to the index, single stock options are fairly or maybe a little richly priced right now. >> there's the "options action" for you guys coming up on the show, a check on china the shanghai stocks made a comeback this month.
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is it high time for investors to buy into that trade? that's next. here's a sneak peek with the cramer cam jim's speaking exclusively with the ceo of tanger. more "fast money" in two thats like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs! before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim,
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welcome back to "fast money. chinese stocks are rebounding. has the selloff in the stocks hit the bottom tim, what do we think? >> carter talks about charts so bad they're good i'll talk about positioning. china exposure, they're at 11-year lows, back to before china a shares were brought into the msci if you look at em dedicated funds, they're 6.5 to 7% better. great for mexico, brazil, turkey other places have is interesting macro stories. the dynamic around china, we all know part of it is the macro but a lot of it is they don't feel safe they've just appointed a new securities regulator that looks as if they're spending more time trying to make things a little bit more investor friendly. we know their version of the plunge protection team what do they call it they call it the national team is what they're calling is in
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buying etfs. we've seen that. the chinese banks have outperformed i'm a big believer, anybody that has money to allocate over the next couple of years, this is what we're doing for people in china. >> this is like a falling knife, right, carter? >> tim's on to something here. he's speaking basically about money flow and positioning is that sometimes it's so lopsided that it's right to take the road less traveled the key here is fxi went to the october low of 2022. the low for global equities and then has held. all are up off the october 2022 lows substantially this index went back to it we have the makings of the double bottom. i think it's right to do to hold one's nose, if you want to say it that way, and do some buying. >> bonowyn, tim brings up the national team, right this is the same national team that waged a war on big tech in china within the last two to three years. i don't know who to believe. >> definitely an owned goal with
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that move. i'm not exactly sure if i'm right here i've been burned on this china trade. i thought at one point they had already priced in the apocalyptic type of move to carter's point, this is currently trading, valuations aside because those are basically at bottom levels, this is essentially where we were when things were at their absolute worst from a global standpoint i can't -- i can't come up with a scenario where things actually get worse. yeah, perhaps you buy this up for a bounce. >> mike khouw are you seeing anything traffic wise with regard to the options trade that lends you to believe these big cap tech names or etfs like fxi or some of the other k webbs are starting to see some flows into them >> well, the stocks themselves have become options because they've gotten as bonowyn was talking about, so cheap. both are trading in the high single digits.
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they're bouncing around the bottom in the case of baba it was maybe 20% lower nine years ago when it first became available to us to me, risk reward if we did see some things clear up, you have a lot of potential up side. >> there's the china trade, guys coming up on the show, your final trades keep it right he re to build the electric vehicle of the future, you need partners. mining partners. technology partners. education. supply chain. energy. what if one partner could do it all? that partner is ontario, canada. with all the critical minerals to make electric vehicle batteries. 65,000 stem graduates per year. one of north america's largest i.t. clusters. a fully integrated supply chain.
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welcome back we've got a news alert on citigroup. an update to the costs associated with its reorg. let's get to bertha combs with the details. >> citigroup says it will have more costs with the first
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quarter. it expects to incur higher net credit losses this year primarily due to higher card nets credit loss rates which they expect to rise above pre-pandemic levels although they do expect they will peak this year. those higher net credit losses is already reflected in the company's allowance for credit losses that they showed on loans outstanding for balances at december 31. back to you. >> all right bertha, the expectation of higher net credit losses in 2024 for citi it's time for now our final trade. go around the horn mike khouw, first to you. >> imda, buy calls. >> carter? >> abercrombie & fitch has lost its mind up 3x sell it all. >> sell it all there's been a lot of discussion around buying dips and i would resist the urge to do that.
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>> and tim >> dom, thanks for being here. great for you to give up your friday afternoon to have fun with us. walmart, they are having a lot of fun this is a story that deserves a higher multiple. >> there's your final trades thanks for thank you for watching fast money, mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for everyone, i promise to help you find it, mad money starts right now i am cramer, welcome to med money, i'm just trying to make you little money, my job is not just to entertain but to explain and teach you, call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me at jim cramer. balancing insisted two points

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