the market pull back a bit. if we get those three cuts at this stage, i think that's great for the market, helps small caps to rally, keeps up the growth rally too. >> okay, sylvia. good to have you on at the beginning of the week on a monday. i know we'll see you again soon. >> that was fun, my friend. >> did you just call me sorky? >> is that okay? >> i've called you other things. >> yeah, you have. you have. you can't say here. make sure you join us tomorrow. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer. david faber is back at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures steady coming off the 13th record close for the s&p this year and the best week since mid-january. packed schedule this week, pce deflator, fed speak, earnings and software. nvidia shares climbing once again ahead of the open while

apolo calls the current a.i. bubble bigger than the '90s tech bubble we're on inflation watch. investors are awaiting key economic data this week, potential big implications for rate policy. and berkshire's cash pile hit a new record, warren buffett warning that the days of "eye-popping gains" are over. let's begin with nvidia extending that rally after a blowout quarter last week, hitting a $2 trillion valuation during much of friday's session. we were talking off camera. perfect timing for you to go into your annual meeting over the weekend. >> thank you. a lot of people own nvidia. it's been our own, don't trade position, and it's worked well. i think there's a lot of skepticism about nvidia because of the -- i call it the nouveau riche stock. people can't believe it had this level of revenue growth. people think that maybe too many companies overordered.

david, i have yet to find anyone who has said, you know what, i have too many of their cards, including meta, which is a huge buyer, and i think one of the reasons is there's 21 improvement in return on investment, and two, they run cooler. so, what happens is that as jensen would say, look, it's just a replacement. we're replacing the entire system, but it's replacement. >> that goes to cost as well in a datacenter, because if you do run somewhat cooler, you consume less electricity, at least, and the ultimate -- the buyer here is trying to figure out the overall cost. it's not just, all right, i know i get better compute power, even if there is a competing chip at some point from amd. you know, it's the overall. so, does it -- does it deliver more? is it -- does it run at, perhaps, a more energy efficient level? i don't know. i'm just saying, jim, that it's more than just saying, at some

point there are going to be competitors because you have to consider the overall value proposition for the buyer. >> right, and i think that one of the things that is mystifying to people, keep finding new customers. i mean, one of the things -- >> he was -- last time we saw jensen, he was in the mideast, all these sovereigns potentially now are going to be buyers of the chips as well. >> if we don't, we're a cultural usurper. people just say, this cannot be an american or english product. each country has to have its own. they just can't nearly produce enough for each country, and when amazon web services buys it, they also -- they use it for their themselves and for cloud. that's a fairly typical situation. at the same time, servicenow keeps coming up as an integrator of their product. there was a good piece out this weekend that they thought was good. they're not promotional, but they do a lot of explaining about why this is occurring.

>> meantime, cathie wood, for example, defending her taking some profits on the name, even though she says in a tweet that she was getting in at five. >> well, look, i think that her decision to sell things or buy things is often good, but i was in front of a group of people this weekend who were right in front -- i was in front of them, and david, when you make a mistake or when you sell something too soon, you're not defending or liking how you did. >> look how enthusiastic they are. it's like the audience for the price is right, they're so enthusiastic. >> there you go. >> did they play that music? >> no, but this was brought to you by le troy meets west chinese food. >> what? >> that's -- don't you remember that? >> oh, yes, yes. >> but i just say that there's a

bit of humility that comes from meeting people which would make you mortified if you do what cathie wood does, and it's -- there's a humbling nature of getting things wrong that -- but look, not everyone has to be humble. humility is what i regard as a positive trait, but that doesn't necessarily mean you have to be. >> no. it doesn't. >> it's how you were brought up. >> listen -- right. meanwhile, why not, if you have 150fold gain, you may want to take some profits. that said, to come back to nvidia now and just in this very moment, given what we know and what we expect in terms of where we are in the evolution of this new wave, i mean, you look at the earnings estimates, and what people expect this company -- i'm looking at a goldman report. goldman has them earning $62 billion next year, net, pre-ex pre-exceptionals, they call it. you're talking, what, 28 times

multiple. >> i'm so glad you mentioned that, because the best work on that is done by this guy, ben righteous. there's a possibility, he was saying, that it's at 25 times earnings. well, carl, 25 times earnings, that's darn inexpensive versus its growth. but no one wants to say this thing's going to last forever, and i think that lisa su is going to encreaoach eventually she gets more teaching software. he talked about 40% as being inference. people don't want to go over what he says. i don't know why. the call is run by colette kress, fantastic cfo, but then he comes in and he answers questions. what we find when we go to this incredible conference that he talks about, you'll understand why you can get those kinds of numbers and why it may not be as ephemeral, and so therefore, worthy of it. again, if you have it at five, and you want to take a profit. that's fine. bulls, bears, and pigs.

>> if you believe we're at the early stages of an a.i. revolution, for lack of a better term. >> i like that. >> in the same way that the internet was or the move to mobile or cloud was at least to a lesser extent, then this is still the name, jim. >> yeah. look, i think that there are a lot of companies that are piggybacking off it too. arm. micron. >> there are plenty. it doesn't appear at this point yet that you can buy companies that are benefitting from the end product in a real way. >> no. i mean, there's just super micro. >> generative a.i. in the workplace by the enterprise. it's very, very early days. >> how often do you go to copilot? >> i don't. >> you should try it. >> i'm not an early adopter. >> i'll tell you how it works. i have huntington bank shares on today, and i read all that i could find and go over all the conference call, and i'm looking for commercial real estate issues, because that's what barry sternlicht's alerted to us

as the black hole of the economy, and i do a commercial real estate, huntington, and it comes up with two reference points, and one of them i had glossed over. i think it's very good as a check to your homework. >> a.i.? >> a.i., yeah. >> we're going to talk about it in the framework of media, given what blackwell is saying about disney, what tyler perry said about a.i. and his studio expansion on friday, jim. jobs will be lost, i think, is the quote. >> he's not spending what was originally anticipated in atlanta to expand because he doesn't have to. >> after getting a look at some of the capabilities. >> i would tell you, jensen huang would say, look, these people are really good. they've got more time to do what matters and less time to do what's proofing. look, i did not go over the commercial real estate of huntington bank shares because i had it from copilot, which i regard as being a very good product. >> is that work that a producer would have done for you prior? >> no, i don't do that. i look at it. i have a memo. i look -- i do the work.

>> it's not replacing jobs is carl's question. >> no, but we're better. i have ben look at it, and i will look at it, and i don't want to ask mr. steinhart stuff that i don't know. ceos won't come back on if you waste their time. >> i need to, when the computer can -- when i can just talk to it real quickly -- >> that's going to happen. jensen will tell you there's just a lot of people who talk to the computer. that's the large language model. remember, we had mcdonald's. >> they texted you during the show on friday. >> they've got -- they're doing 100 mcdonald's, testing where it's you're speaking to a.i. that speaks in 27 languages. the idea that jensen, like, was, isn't it great if you were someone that didn't speak english well, you could go to one of these fast foods and not be intimidated and speak with someone who speaks your language? jensen points out, you don't have to get it right.

you can ask it stuff and not be as coherent, a little more than critical than he is, but i think we're waiting for this, but some people, like mark zuckerberg, have figured this thing out. >> as we broaden the discussion a bit, maybe those are good questions for the companies that report this week, like dell or hp or hpe. >> hp's been featured, but delver much so featured, and that i think that's precisely what you keep expecting is your pc. now, i don't think that hp has been as good a spokesman as it could be versus me about what your pc can do, but i believe it's a big pc refresh, which makes me want to own best buy, which reports this week. >> look at the performance of dell, though, for a minute. just take that in. >> well -- >> quietly one of the world's wealthiest people. >> birthday boy last week. >> i'll say something great about him periodically, and his brother will text me and say, that's nice.

>> well, yeah, he doesn't watch necessarily. >> michael dell is not sitting -- >> he's busy. >> he's not listening to us. he's like my wife. >> he can't take offense at that. >> my wife says, you still know that guy, jensen? >> not everybody watches, at least not at every moment. as lisa would say, you think i don't do anything? you think i just sit there and watch tv, a housewife who watches tv? i'm working. not that a housewife isn't working. she's saying i'm insulting her by saying, what did you think of the 9:00? she says, why don't you call it a 9 o'clock show? >> nobody in my family ever watches. that's not true. my mother watches. >> your dog? >> maybe scoop watches. >> his ma always emails me when i say something about how much i love him and how much i missed you last week. >> i missed you both. >> did you? >> yeah, i did. sure. >> you were off in the mornings. >> i was at a conference thursday and friday, saw michael dell speak.

>> how was he? did he mention nvidia? >> not in so many words, no. he didn't -- i don't remember him talking about that. of course, you got to remember, michael dell has an entire other business, bdt, msd capital so, dell's got his feet in so many different areas. >> who else was at your conference? >> there were many people at the conference. >> there you go. >> sternlicht, i got to listen to for a minute. >> commercial real estate. did it drop in value while he was there? >> he was not overly positive. >> spacs? >> he didn't talk about spacs. or cano. it went bankrupt. >> you had to bring that up. couldn't you just be joyous? >> isn't carl's haircut perfect? >> it is perfect. >> oh my. >> i'm just looking at him today. >> i'm going -- >> i wasn't going to say anything, but it is perfect.

>> i'm overweight on his haircut. >> he looks fab. >> i'm off the rest of the week doing my own shooting. >> i was going to make you a tactical buy. >> he's a buy today, a hard buy. >> david's right. it's a big week for conferences. jamie dimon, we're going to have. leslie is looking forward to that. >> he's so good. >> we'll also get to berkshire today, the messages that buffett sent to shareholders over the weekend, and as jim said, a lot of earnings to get to over the coming days, including crm, lowe's, best buy, tjx, best buy, zscaler and more. futures hanging in there as we're congffecd os. mi o rorclese switching to workday you've been a real rock star. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses

workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart! [sfx: wind, rain and rolling thunder] nobody's born with grit. british announcer: rose is really struggling. it's something you build over time. american announcer: that's 21 missed cuts in a row. [car trunk slammed shut] for 88 years, morgan stanley has offered clients determination and forward thinking to create the future... crowd: stop it! ...only you can see. american announcer: rose, back in the winner's circle. [crowd cheers] [music out]

is it possible to count on my internet like my customers count on me?s] it is with comcast business. keeping you up and running with our 99.9% network reliability. and security that helps outsmart threats to your data. moaire dida twoo? - your data, too. there's even round-the-clock customer support. so you can be there for your customers.

with comcast business, reliability isn't just possible. it's happening. get started for $49 a month. plus, ask how to get up to a $800 prepaid card with a qualifying internet package. don't wait, call and switch today! warren buffett's berkshire hathaway up in the premarket. helped by strength in insurance. cash holdings expand to a record

high, surpassing $167 billion. in his annual letter, buffett says, "there remain only a handful of companies in this country capable of truly moving the needle at berkshire, and they have been endlessly picked over. outside the u.s., there are essentially no candidates that are meaningful options for capital deployment at b berkshire." >> those japanese buys were sensational over time. >> amazing. >> you have to credit him for that. >> you totally have to. in 2020, he started buying these. >> it was amazing. >> they had, what, 23, $24 million, made $8 billion in profit, far exceeding the s&p. i mean, yeah. there's only one buffett. >> that's absolutely right. but there's several railroads. >> yes. >> and his discussion of bnsf

burlington northern, was not -- he called it acceptable return, but he didn't like the numbers. i went over the numbers of others. the operating revenue of burlington northern was minus 6.1. the operating revenue of csx was minus 1.3. union pacific, mienus 3.0. canadian pacific, plus 42, but they made an acquisition. net earnings, minus 14. net earnings of csx, minus 10. norfolk southern had the palestine issue. as among csx and union pacific, can't really do canadian pacific, but i will tell you it will be. his was the most disappointing. i completely understand why he is not all that in favor. people don't talk about that. it's not mentioned, but burlington northern's net earnings were very much off versus the others. union pacific seems like it's better run.

>> although all-time highs for berkshire doubling the s&p gain this year. >> absolutely, but i think that one of the things that, if you look at the cpi, you'll see that auto insurance is perhaps maybe one of the most out of control things that you have, and geico is auto insurance. so, that doesn't mean you -- you don't have to asterisk it, saying, our prices went up, but you can say, look, prices went up and they stuck. >> right. what do you do with $167 billion in cash? and growing. >> let's ask jensen. i'm just saying. >> but i mean, if you're buffett, and you have typically deployed it -- i mean, he's been waiting and waiting and waiting. he's not done a large deal. burlington, obviously, is one. i can remember precision cast parts. you can go back, but it's a long time since he deployed n a deal, a significant amount. >> i think we're thinking about him way too -- if you wanted to, there are so many companies that actually are now 80, $90 billion

that you might think might be worth it. >> yeah. >> you know, david, you were recently quoted in the disney letter. i mean, let's think. if he were to buy disney and amalgamate things, 197, but you could always borrow some money. >> he could. i don't know that warren is interested in any way, shape, or form in trying to take disney private, but it's an idea. >> suddenly that matters. >> sure. >> he hasn't particularly liked paramount. >> carl, we can get to it, but he says that his successor is ready to go. buffett. >> right. >> and also kind of a shoutout to munger about his push to back off of sticking to ben graham, you know? full bore. >> from the very beginning. >> as always, the letter is great. i only point out the burlington northern, bnsf, because he was so negative. i wasn't prepared. the big focus is buying back

coca-cola. he's happy with that return, which is meager versus some others. >> i know. >> but amex had a great quarter. >> also conferencing this week. we'll get a little bit more on disney, as david mentions, some incremental news regarding that proxy battle, and we're going to get paraunt sumorelts later in the week. cramer's "mad dash" and the opening bell coming up in ten minutes.

power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley

all right, first "mad dash" of the week, of course, as we have six minutes before we get started with the first trading day of the week. you want to talk a little salesforce. >> salesforce has two upgrades ahead of the quarter, and the problem with that is the 28th. the reason why i fear -- not two upgrades, two price target bumps, and is like an upgrade in the sense that, wow, this is going to do better than expected. my problem with that is that now it sets up a quarter that is going to be difficult, given the fact that the bar's been raised. but they are a big user of a.i., of jensen, and what they use it for are queries. queries is basically the reference part, the inference part, i should say. 40% of their business at nvidia

is, can you infer? i ask you a question, and they're asked trillions of questions, which would say, what would make it so that you would buy more ducatis? that's a good customer. the answer will come very quickly. you speak to it. you don't have to go to a data scientist. so, the head of ducati can ask the question. i think they understand in italian. what happens is that you get the answer very quickly about what would make it so they would or what color would they or what sales pitch. that's what salesforce is doing. that's how they use a.i., and i think it's pretty -- it's pretty impressive. >> so, they're one of the companies that will show meaningful, you think, improvement in their overall metrics as a result of the use of generative a.i.? you do? for their customer base? >> yeah, now, it is interesting that they're not mentioned. it's always been servicenow that's mentioned, and yet i think that these guys are using it very well, because einstein,

which is their artificial intelligence, in a lot of ways is powered by this kind of chip. so, i just say that it's -- bar is high, but it will be the first company not really pushed by nvidia to talk about nvidia. >> all right. we'll keep an eye on salesforce shares, of course, and the broader market as well. opening bell is just four minutes away, and by the way, don't forget, you can catch us any time and anywhere. please listen to and follow the "squk t see oni awonhetrt:peng bell" podcast. the economy is simply not working for millions of hard working families. they're working harder than ever and they still can't make enough to get by to afford food and medicine to even keep a roof over their heads. we need to build more housing that's truly affordable. we need to address this terrible epidemic of homelessness.

we need to invest in good paying jobs, union jobs and investments in our future. this, this is why i'm running for the us senate. i'm adam schiff and i approve this message.

>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. nat gas prices looking to rebound after testing new 3.5-year lows last week. adjusted for inflation, nat gas futures recently hit their lowest price since trading began back in 1990, jim. big piece in "the journal" over the weekend. put options, 50 cents. >> there's no doubt about it that the big oil and gas companies are just now beginning to cut back on their natural gas production. i saw coterra last week, a big holding in my travel trust. they can switch.

that's a combination of cigarettes and capital and gas, and they are shifting more. apache really can't. carl, it's asterisks in the consumer price index. but it is very important part of the mosaic of what people spend in their lives. >> between that, even with a little bounce here in gasoline, last few weeks, brent nat gas has definitely got a lot of attention. >> and it should. by the way, nat gas reverberates throughout the entire system. it's the fuel for industry. it's the fuel for plastic. it does not yet get the recognition, in part because it's really kind of a ppi thing, but david, when you see these oil and gas companies, aren't you reminded that there's been so much acquisition but really they're very heavily weighted toward oil and not natural gas. >> particularly the deals that we're seeing, the big ones that are taking place in the permian are not about nat gas. they're about oil. >> how much did people love that

f.a.n.g. acquisition, the diamondback where apparently that company's very, very good. >> interesting back story, too, with the founder. >> do you have that? >> i read about it. >> travis, the ceo of diamondback, is -- he and scott sheffield are the two people that i keep hearing over and over again are the best. i think tom jordan at coterra deserves a shoutout. david, you were down in latin america where there seems to be a black hole about, can you drill, can you not drill? what exxon can do down there. i don't get it. >> you're talking about guyana? >> yeah. >> they're drilling. >> i know. >> venezuela -- >> what is it with venezuela? >> i can't tell you exactly what's going to happen there. there doesn't seem to be as much fear on the part of mike wirth or darren woods that the venezuelans are going to get aggressive with the guyanese, but we'll see. >> venezuela is not among the

council of nations yet. if it ever did, they've got the most poil in the world. >> they do. >> jim, four points to 5,100 here. this is coming at a time where the number of projected rate cuts has been peeled off. >> yes. >> it was seasonally supposed to be the worst couple weeks of the year, and here we are at all-time highs. >> all the seasonal stuff has been just completely -- i don't want to say worthless, but wow. it hasn't worked. and the three cuts is now prevailing wisdom. i'm not even sure if that's the case because the economy is so strong. i just think that what keeps happening is you'll have something like domino's. domino's is a very household name, and russell weiner took it over a couple years ago. >> he's going to be on this afternoon. >> he's sensational, by the way. sold hot dogs at yankee stadium. he gave long-term guidance today. 8% annual income for operations growth to 2028. and i read that, and i just say,

well, there's one. i got to own that one. how can i not own domino's? they do a big buyback, increasing the dividend. this is what keeps happening. domino's is my prevailing theme so far for this year, which just when you think that you're done with greatness, something new comes along. >> how about this big piece a.p. story this morning about consumers pushing back on prices, and it's actually working? that's the opposite of what happened in the '70s where kind of people threw up their hands. >> that was a great tweet by you between 5:00 and 6:00, and what i felt was it's very contrary to what i spoke about this weekend where i looked at something like livenation, michael rapino, who's such a great ceo, talking about how he can raise prices with impunity because what happens is he puts prices out for a concert, ticketmaster, the scalpers all buy them and mark them up, and he says there's no resistance. david, there seems to be no resistance to a lot of different price increases, so i don't know. i'm going to balance what carl

was saying with what some of the conference calls are saying. >> well, it always -- this goes back to the consolidation and the question as to whether the ticketmaster deal ever should have been allowed, right? >> i think it's more of a question. >> kind of have a monopoly, don't they? >> i use seat geek, i use other sites. >> what do they own? i'm going to check. >> i'm just saying that taylor swift, they could charge, i don't know, $1,500 a ticket, and get it instead of, like, $1,000 ticket and have it be marked up by $500. but that's inflationary. they're at the heart of inflation, but they're not -- david, they have one. you know, plastics? amphitheaters. amphitheaters are where you go. usher doesn't want to be in an amphitheater. usher doesn't therefore get the most money he could. it was such a great conference call, and rapino is so smart. >> he is. he's been running the company for quite some time. >> excellent interview last

week. good shoutout. >> big piece in wards with the ceo of jeep that they are going to cut prices of the cherokee. >> that will help bernie garcia, who had an amazing quarter at carvana, who told me, look, unless you get a glut of new, you will not see used come down, and by the way, once again, auto insurance, david, has to be factored in, because that's been the bogey that has really hurt a lot of -- everyone has to have insurance. you don't go out there and say, i'm going to risk it. you have to have it. we need more competition. >> remember when apollo did that convert or something? >> that was a great price. >> wow. >> but garcia's -- >> you know, and people were talking about the potential bankruptcy here. it'slike, how soon does that look at this point? >> i remember i came on the air and i said, it's not going lower than $80, because it's ridiculous. and i did that -- my ridiculous

stocks. fortunately, stocks don't -- they is to be at zero. they don't go below that. buy carvana. i don't know if you ever bought a car with carvana. i bought one, and when i got back, my wife said, i don't like the color. and i said, all right, i'll return it. >> it was a darling of the pandemic, of course, given used car prices flew up so much at that point. but then it dropped so precipitously, but that's an incredible -- that's, i think, one of the single best-performing stocks of the last year when you look at the 760-plus. >> we had a contest internally about who had the best stock, and i think that carvana won. >> did it? so important to remember that. >> what, that she won? >> no, that sometimes words of bankruptcy are greatly exaggerated when you hear them. >> yes, yes. people have sent a lot of invitations to carvana's funeral, and they were returned. >> the guys at apollo usually know what they're doing. not always. everybody gets one wrong, but when they came in there with

that, that was interesting. >> you follow them better than anyone, and i don't really understand their model as much as i should. >> really? they own a large insurer, and that drives a lot of what's going on. apollo shares are up almost 20% this year talking about the alternative asset manager, obviously, fueled by a large insurance company. >> didn't i see jonathan gray on the cover of, like, the man of the year? person of the year? >> blackstone, the largest of the alternative asset managers, the stock is actually down about 4% this year, bucking the overall trend, because when i look, apollo is up 19%, kkr is up 16%. i got blue owl up 20%. ares up 11%. >> hold just a second. stop. carl, did you read the obituary of the owl? >> of whom? >> the owl in "the new york times." >> oh, flacco? of course. >> that was so sad. >> the news story was like an obituary. he lived in the west side, liked the west side. in the went -- east side was not for him.

he was obviously an intellectual owl. they're wise to begin with. >> we're talking about an owl that escaped from central park zoo who lived on his ownfor a year. >> made the city his own. >> and sadly, you know, you never know, they're going to do an autopsy. i think it's -- waiting for the results. >> he hit the window. >> it's possible rat poisoning affects them over time. >> i want everyone to read the think piece about him and the obituary about him, because he represented the free spirit that we all would like to have. they tried to get him back in to be caged, but he would have none of that. because he wanted his life to be free. >> yes. >> that was an amazing piece. i liked him, and i didn't know him. >> i'm trying to find a way back to markets from that, but that's a tough one. >> blue owl. >> i saw flacco one day in a tree. >> you could work flacco as substitute quarterback who didn't -- >> joe flacco. >> go to eaton. >> flacco had a great time with

the browns. >> who had a better year, flacco or flacco? >> i think joe flacco because the -- >> he's still with us. >> i'm sorry, my sister told me. >> you have to stay in captivity or you get one year out, what do you think flacco would have gone for? >> any time, one year out. freedom is very hard to lose. >> there you go. >> free agency. >> jim, we got a bunch of n initiations on amer sports. >> and yet everyone knew it wasn't any good. it's amazing. the street rallies to ipos. that one didn't. you didn't make a lot of money off the ipo, so maybe it's reasonably priced. it was a winner, david. >> i know reddit file, but where are -- given particularly in one area, but given the overall -- >> zeitgeist, szeitgeist? >> why aren't we seeing a flood? if people want to say that this is reminiscent of the internet era, which i don't feel like it is, in many ways, because we're

talking about huge companies that have, frankly, make more money than any companies we've ever seen trading at multiples that are not that unreasonable, many would say. that said, why aren't we seeing more ipos in general? >> i don't know. i've been waiting for the big biotech flood of ipos. that's not happened. i've been waiting for a lot of phony companies that the street will praise. those haven't happened. like the spac revolution, what a bogus thing that was. that hasn't happened. >> you've got all these private companies that have been waiting for the opportunity. >> here it is. >> so, where are they? other than reddit, which has been a company for 20 years or something like that. >> i can't wait to get my hands on that. robinhood is all the way up to $14 so you do have a lot of things that are smelling like roses, but we just don't have -- i mean, how about some food chain that has, like, 22 stores? where are those things? >> i don't know. >> look at robinhood, will you? >> okay. >> you're right about hood, though. that would take you back to '22. >> i know.

i know. just incredible that we -- david, i think we have to talk to thoma bravo. don't they have something they could sell? jonathan greg, get him to sell something. >> it's more -- >> lower price homes are still being bought largely by these kinds of firms, driving us out. >> it's more the stuff, tiger, d-1s own that would love to see the come public, and/or softbank. >> olymkay. call them during the break. >> arm shares are up again today. >> rosenblatt goes to $180 on arm. >> yes. and i know. that's -- rene haas is brilliant, and that's very positive piece. david, you haven't talked about the notion of the short sellers. >> look at arm today. there's no float. it moves. >> how are the short sellers doing in their day-to-day lives in china? what's that like? >> i don't know, jim. >> you've been to china.

just a door knock in the middle of the night. >> here we go again with this. with the whole -- >> antagonizing the prc? >> what is it with you? what part of your brain needs to always go to the fact that they don't like short sellers in china? >> my medulla oblangata. also my vagus nerve. >> i can see it pulsating. >> i'll put an ice bag on it after. >> evercore goes to $220. we have talked a lot about bezos selling, zuckerberg selling, dimon selling. he'll be asked about that today. >> all these people have a right to sell. they've really had a big run. david, you have not yet said that it's atavistic and doesn't matter, the dow. usually, at this point, you have said something negative about the dow. >> i appreciate you doing that for me. it's absurd. it's an absurd average. then they put in amazon. >> how did walgreens do in the

dow? was that a good buy? >> no, it wasn't. how do you want to play the dow? when they come out, you want to buy them? >> the dogs of the dow. i think tim wentworth is doing a great job with walgreens, but it's a big turnaround. when you get those retail turnarounds, they're very hard. rite aid was doing a multiyear turnaround, and that didn't end as well as it should have. >> that's going to be interesting because we are going to get lowe's, tjx, you mentioned best buy. >> lowe's is going to be, i think, very good, but i want to caution people. home depot is up very big after what was supposed to be a bad call, but home depot said the do-it-yourself is doing as well as the professional, and that may mean the professional is not doing that well or diy is going to be great, which would be ma marvin ellison's sweet spot. builders first source is the winner, because that's total wholesale. builders first source is rivaling nvidia as being one of the great stocks of the era, which is really incredible. look at that thing. a humble. >> matt boss does upgrade gap.

>> i think gap is having an unbelievable year, and if you read the conference call, you can't believe how well they're doing and how well old navy's doing, big comeback. they're still not happy with banana republic, which a lot of people think is a nickname for our country. >> really? >> yes. >> now? >> literally got the best economy in the world. >> it's the best of the worst. >> what are you thinking when you say that? >> $36 trillion in debt. that's what i'm thinking. >> oh, that part. we made our interest payments, last i heard. >> we need inflation to do it. >> still have pretty good credit. >> i wanted to be one of those guys who says that. >> does it feel good? >> is it congress you're referring to? >> i want to be responsible, so people will say, cramer, we think he's a joker, but he did talk about the $36 trillion in debt. i think he's more of a -- the part of the intelligencia.

>> where did that come from? >> i want to sound smart. >> there are a couple actual dovish geopolitical headlines. one is the possibility of a cease-fire or at least a hostage release. jake sullivan says it might happen in the coming days. then, there's this idea floated by ukraine over the weekend of a peace summit in which russia would be invited on kyiv's terms to discuss. >> 31,000 dead, the army there, and we don't know the death of the russians. >> the russians have lost -- >> it's unfathomable. >> hundreds of thousands. >> unfathomable. i don't think the history of russia is to do anything for mother russia, including die for it. not that we wouldn't, don't have that -- >> we don't talk about geopolitics that often. doesn't seem to be impacting the markets in a significant way. we talk about the red sea, obviously, and shipping rates have gone up, and that could creep into certain costs of certain goods, but beyond that, we really -- it's not -- >> and it's 13% of the world's

calories, and it didn't matter. the grain complex is doing quite poorly. >> ukraine, the bread basket of europe, which is what it was. >> the cutoff of buying their oil didn't matter one bit because of china and india. the sanctions have been an abject failure, but no one talks about that. i just did. >> who knew there were even more sanctions to put on after navalny died. i'm like, why? what's the point? >> instead of giving them missiles or f-35s, you announce more bogus sanctions. >> it's clear that sanctions are not effective. >> they should come out and say that. that's what we're talking about. i'm in the -- >> they do have $350 billion that we could seize. >> they get the missiles, if they -- they got what they needed, then at least they could possibly reclaim some of the land. but again, we're not the military history channel. but we're also not the owl -- i did a national geographic for a

while, and where did that get us with the blue owl? he was not a blue owl. >> no idea what you're talking about. >> i'm saying -- >> lost you completely. >> i diverted us to national geographic, talking about the owl obituary. so, we can go ukraine -- i mean, we can go anywhere you want. >> we can, and i like to. i'm happy to. >> really? >> sure. >> then, will you go paramount? >> no. i will not. there are certain places i won't go. >> there are things he will not discuss. >> do you think we'll go over zaslav when he was away? you had the mornings off. >> i was working thursday and friday, i just wasn't on television. >> were you really? i don't feel that he has given us the full story. >> we'll get debriefed during the break. >> it will be a private debrief. >> really? >> sure. >> like jamake sullivan? >> there's a vault 20 meters below here. >> i want to start my question by saying, congratulations, david, on a good quarter. as we go to break, s&p just

barely right here, shy of 5,100. watch bonds. lot of fed speak, but it really doesn't start until wednesday. of course, the tent pole data point of the week will be the pce inflaeter on thursday. ter o. [phone: starting route.] technology helps us navigate to work. [phone: go straight.] but, to navigate the complexities of modern work... [phone: turn left.] ...you need more than technology. you need cdw. [phone: you have arrived.] so we'll implement cloud based microsoft modern work solutions like microsoft 365, teams and azure, so your teams can collaborate with zero trust security anywhere. [phone: destination ahead.] microsoft makes modern work possible.

cdw makes it powerful.

ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

...for kung fu panda 4. jack black is back. ah, you're adorable. yah, whah! we mentioned some of the retailers reporting this week. lowe's, tjx, dollar tree. check out walmart. might notice a new price as the split is effective at 58.70 coming off the big interview with mcmillon and jim just a few days ago. >> thank you. >> despite ever corp's underperform. >> you can't do this. these guys are doing the best i've seen versus the others. hats off to doug mcmillon. gave workers more money, but he's incentivized managers, 200%

if they make it. >> with a stock a little more affordable. ldg ul walton, like a bookings hoinwod look at that. >> stop trading with jim is up next. dow up 100. what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart! a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently. [disconcerting stomach gurgle] not again. maybe i should get this looked at? [suggestive stomach gurgle] zocdoc? [talkative stomach gurgle] you're right, i bet they deal with this all the time.

dr. finley really puts you at ease. let's do it! you've got more options than you know. book now. (vo) explore the world the viking way from the quiet comfort of melegant small shipsu know. with no children and no casinos. we actually have reinvented ocean voyages, designing all-inclusive experiences for the thinking person. viking - voted world's best by both travel + leisure and condé nast traveler. learn more at viking.com. you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to

75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? did we peak your interest? you can get two unlimited lines for just $30 each a month. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening.

let's get to jim and stop trading. >> the worst performer in the nasdaq 100 continues to get no respect and that's moderna. hsbc downgrades it to a sell and remember, they had the vaccine and there was a lot of talk about personalized vaccines for cancer. the -- this hsbc is skeptical about that and so they're -- they're, i would say, making it so you feel that there may not be a pot of gold at the end of that rainbow. previous target was 75 and target price 86. they have a sell but did raise the target price. this is one of toes companies that had a great heyday like a zoom and hasn't come back. people think it's got so much value but the street hates it. >> zoom, another name that reports this week. >> i know. >> i was just thinking about. >> one that we keep waiting for them to do beyond and everyone likes them as people.

they are remarkable. i used zoom during covid, the way you communicated. >> thankfully that's no longer -- >> you're right, david. >> it's now about livenation. >> livenation. very close to the four-year anniversary when all of us exited. >> wait until you see jones beach and what they've done with live nation. >> the theater there. >> yeah. >> i've been, i saw barry white there. that was an amazing concert. >> i was a total barry white guy. fabulous. >> what's on tonight? >> i've got alongco, pet, and clear this morning and huntington bank, from steve steinour, on whether barry -- everyone so worried about commercia commercial real estate. >> we'll see. >> is there equity out there, somehow rehe can ca is too the

properties that can be saved. >> that's right. that's what i heard last week, chicago, philadelphia, baltimore, that don't panic over this. there's not as many as you think that are hurt. it's something to watch. >> yeah. >> arm holdings up 12. this is just -- -- it's not a bubble. it's not. >> you keep telling yourself that. >> regular go up. >> that's the kind of analysis we care to hear. >> a very good book, by the way, about sam bankman-fried. >> very good. we'll see you tonight. >> welcome back, david. you had the mornings off. >> to jim's point, s&p 5090. when we come back some new home sales. don't go away. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement.

or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. to build the electric vehicle of the future, you need partners. mining partners. technology partners. education. supply chain. energy. what if one partner could do it all? that partner is ontario, canada. with all the critical minerals to make electric vehicle batteries. 65,000 stem graduates per year. one of north america's largest i.t. clusters. a fully integrated supply chain. all powered by one of the cleanest grids in north america. ontario. your innovation partner. ( ♪♪ ) do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without

finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. this is remington. ...he's a member of the family, for sure. we always fed them kibble— it just seemed like the thing to do. but ...he was getting picky we heard about the farmer's dog... and it was a complete transformation. his coat was so soft, he had amazing energy. he was a completely different dog. it's a no-brainer that (remi) should have the most nutritious and delicious food possible. i'm investing in my dog's health and happiness. hey you, with the small business... ...whoa... you've got all kinds of bright ideas, that your customers need to know about. constant contact makes it easy. with everything from managing your social posts, and events, to email and sms marketing.

constant contact delivers all the tools you need to help your business grow. get started today at constantcontact.com constant contact. helping the small stand tall. good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl

quintanilla and david faber, live for you as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. it's good to be back. good to see the s&p 500 rising again after another strong week. reaching record highs. the nasdaq is lagging today and that's because the strength is coming from energy, financials, consumer discretionary, real estate, industrials and health care. communication services under performing after, again, a big run up last week. the nasdaq is down just a little bit right now. take a look at treasuries as well. we're seeing this yield back up has been the story, continues this morning. 4.26 is the yield on the 10-year. we have a lot of data this week and starting today. we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are some movers we're watching. australia's illumina has agreed to a $2.2 billion takeover offer from alcoa. they were joint venture partners in a mining operation. it will increase five of the largest 20 mines and five of the 20 largest refineries outside of

china. the stock is moving in different directions this morning. domino's shares hitting multiyear highs after a profit beat for the quarter with same-store sales up nearly 3%. the company raising its dividend. big move higher 9%. don't miss the ceo on "power lunch" at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. and a number of consumer names hitting fresh 52-week highs this morning. amazon, home depot, hilton, tjx, mckesson and more as retail earnings condition -- continue as well. >> let's get to rick santelli. good morning. >> good morning, carl. new home sales for the month of january expected to be 684,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units, comes in a bit on the light side at 661,000 units. last month downgraded from 664,000 to 651,000. maybe the most important issue

to remind viewers is the last time we were over 700,000 was in july of last year. we remember last week rates back above 7% as we saw in the mortgage surveys and new homes, they may be exactly the sweet spot considering those who already own homes don't seem anxious to be taking out new higher mortgages. two auction today, $63 billion two-year at 11:30 eastern, $64 billion five-year at 1:00 eastern. debt is the big story these days and for a deeper look at new home sales, let's go to diana olick. diana? >> a clear miss. look, the december number was revised down significantly, so even though we had a pop up in percentage in january, it's much lower than expected. the price down 2.6% year over year on a newly built home in january and 8.3 is up from 8.2. an interesting number which i like to look at which is homes that have sold but not yet

started. we're seeing a significant drop in that number from last year, and that means that build backlog is thinning out and that's because demand is coming down. mortgage rates, an important one for what we saw in january, still in the 6% range off the 8% high that we saw in october, but in the higher 6% range now, of course, we're over 7%. but the builders, you know, some say they're seeing considered demand, but they're having to buy down mortgage rates. when you see that drop in 2.6% in prices that's not the full picture because the price if you factor in how much the builders are buying down the mortgage rates to get their customers in the door, that comes off their margins as well. it's not a great number. and i would also note that the housing starts number came down nearly 5% in january which kind of looks forward to what the builders expect ahead. toll brothers last week told us they were seeing increased demand in january, but toll is on the high end of the market. the, you know, regular side of the market still seeing buyers pinched, higher mortgage rates and the affordability issues.

there you have it. back to you. >> diana and rick, thank you very much. kicking off what is going to be a busy week of data as i mentioned just take a look at what we have to look forward to. durable goods tomorrow and another look at gdp later in the week. i think the big event, though, as far as the economic data is going to be the pce report, the fed's preferred inflation measure, that comes out on thursday. it's important because it's coming off of hotter cpi and ppi so good thing we didn't miss inflation data last week. the ppi the wholesale read on inflation, will feed into that pce number. what are economists looking for a 0.4% jump and that could be the biggest jump in a year and they can extrapolate from the higher prices in hospitals and medical services and in the portfolio management which is, of course, higher stock prices, and it could bring, carl, the three month and six month

annualized numbers the fed looks at which were below 2%, back above 2%. now, is it going to be a game changer? given all the other data we've h lately the market has moved from the end of last year to this year, down to 3 where the fed is, and, you know, the question would be, does the fed change its own dots or how many cuts it expects to happen given the stronger numbers on inflation and the economy and pair that down? does the market have to continue to sort of play catch up? that's been the story. certainly in the fed expectations, the bond market and the inflationary numbers. >> i mean, what d given what we've seen previously to figure out what pce might be, what the chances are that we get something that's far out of consensus one way or the other? highly unlikely. >> given we know some of the -- some of what feeds into it from

ppi and cpi. the risk is we get a hotter point. >> is 0.4 built in. >> that would move the year over year numbers and annualized numbers higher as well. the big surprise would be if it continues to show disinflation and better progress the market would, obviously, like a print like that. either way the fed expected it to be bumpy on the way down to 2%. they can chalk this up to bumty. we heard from bostic and heard fed speak last week and a lot more this week. the message has been we're patient kind of in wait and see mode. i think the minutes from the last fed meeting were interesting on that front because they sort of made it seem like a riskier bet to cut too soon than to wait too late on the cutting front. >> jeffries presentation we pointed out last week included a bunch of examples of prior easing cycles that began with core pce in the low 2s or high 1s. ed yardeni said cleveland fed

now is looking for 0.3 which he thinks would spark a rally in stocks and bonds. >> lower than expected. >> we continue to get color from companies as well during this earnings season about disinflation. inflation pressures have come down. the latest dominos. what cfo is saying about prices. >> we're expecting a food basket to be up 1% to 3%. this has been driven by moderation on cheese prices. we expect the q1 food basket to be deflationary as we lap the only quarter from 2023 when the basket increased followed by moderate increases for the remainder of 2024. >> deflationary food basket in q1 and moderate increases for the remainder of 2024. continued good news there. especially on food. i always pay attention to that because that's where we've seen the biggest spikes and where we spend the most off our wallet share. the other chart, just on the macro data and what economists

were writing about ai. because of the nvidia move last week and what this is doing to the market and economy and all economists are wondering when this is going to show up in the macro data. it should boost our gdp right all the capex spending eventually. >>p capex spending not necessarily showing up in productivity numbers. >> it should eventually show up in productivity. >> that's still a ways away. >> a ways away. >> people starting to use generative ai, it's still very, very early. >> correct. >> so here's the productivity look. this is not an ai chart, but a chart of what's been happening. we're seeing very good productivity post covid but that to your point, david, could be more of a factor we figured out how to do more with less, the work from home, the, you know, the fewer employees, just this has been a good trend productivity. it should get better with ai. i agree, we're not ness there yet because wolf research put this out and they cited a survey

showing that very few companies are actually training or have trained people on generative ai. it's an 89% say it's a priority for theais year but they're not there. >> it's 2025 when it -- you begin to see the impact of it, is what many believe. >> your point -- >> 80% is small business and they're not there either. >> your important point as well, capex is enormous from the companies we know so well. just go through apple, meta, alphabet and amazon and microsoft and add up the capex number it's gigantic. >> hasn't seriously moved the needle on business spending as a factor of gdp and that could come in the coming quarters. it's something that everyone is looking for. we're starting to look for evidence because it's, obviously, such a forceful move on the -- on business right now and on the economy that we're waiting to see it show up.

ultimately could put pressure on inflation too, which if it gives you good growth, better productivity and lower inflation. >> that's nice. >> that's a good combination. >> yeah. >> maybe one reason the markets have been behaving well. major averages trading on record highs coming off a record close on friday on track for the for the fourth positive month in a row. let's bring in liz ann sonders. you've been listening to this conversation. a lot has been written about the line from nvidia to say manufacturing construction to productivity and what that does to real rates over time. are you a believer? >> long term i agree with what david said. this is a positive long-term productivity story. i'm not sure you can yet connect the dots to what we've seen to productivity improving as being broadly about or very specific to ai. i think that's coming. also to your point, you've got nvidia and it's 40% of its customer base is represented by

the small handful of companies that are also, the magnificent seven and i think that's been the market story, but under the surface there's, obviously, a lot more churn in averages, like the nasdaq, where the average nasdaq member has had more than 20% draw down from a year to date high. you don't see that when you just look at the averages because of the dominance of names like that. >> what do you make of -- i was talking to jim this morning about how we were sort of supposed to be mired in the seasonally weak period, the number of rate cuts has been coming off and here we are at record closes. what does it count for then? >> this is going to be the interesting thing to see how much of the market's overall gain is a function of fed rate cuts. even before the hotter cpi report and bertter than expecte jobs report we were not in the camp that felt march was the start point. the market had gotten over its skis not just with an early start point but six or seven

rate cuts and the market has come back to where the fed sits right now. but i'm not sure that that just translates immediately into they'll cut in may and only be three times. a data dependent fed means we're at the mercy of the data and i think really key in the pce report, sara talked about the three month change, the six-month change, which historically has been what the fed has focused on not just the most recent point number, but less so at the most recent press conference, but specifically at the "60 minutes" interview jay powell did, he talked about a 12-month change. that was just another way to talk about they want to see an extended period of time where that disinflationary trend is in tact. that makes those 12-month numbers, i think, a little bit more of a tell with each inflation report that we get pce or otherwise. >> are you fielding questions, liz ann, from clients about do thecom bubble? i can't tell you how many charts are passed around now comparing

nvidia to cisco back then or the market cap growth of nvidia to other big tech companies during the internet bubble. what do you say to that? >> tons of questions, and you can certainly point to evaluation problem but the underlying strength of these companies in terms of cash flows and profitability is starkly different from what was going on, not across the board in the late 1990s, you had strong tech companies that still exist today that are large and meaningful, but you had so much silliness at the time and, you know, valuations on things like eyeballs and really no prospects certainly with the benefit of hindsight of profitability in these companies. that's not the case. that doesn't mean you don't end up in a valuation bubble of sorts, but i think that the denominator of this equation in this environment is i think the most stark difference relative to the denominator in the equation back in the late 1990s. >> on that note, liz ann, even the multiples are not really

that high for these companies we would consider to be at the heart of the generative ai revolution. >> particularly on a forward p/e basis given the huge beats. that in and of itself sets up a bit of a risk of the bar getting set too high. you have a situation if it's quarter after quarter where you just beat by an extended margins and analysts set the bar too high, you run that risk that even a slight miss, there's more of a punishment and we've seen that outside of just ai related names. the double misses companies, i'm not just talking about tech, the companies that miss on top line and bottom line, get disproportionately punished relative even to the rewards accrued to the companies that double beat on both top line and bottom line. it does establish a risk, but you're right, the multiples on a forward basis do not look as egregious as what we saw in the

late 1990s. >> liz ann, good way to start the hour. good seeing you. talk soon. liz ann sonders. >> as the nasdaq goes positive tesla doing the heavy lifting as well as nvidia. as we head to break our road map for the hour, warren buffet's berkshire hayway reporting a trillion dollar market value. what the oracle of omaha is saying. uber is being added to the dow transports and we'll discuss what's ahead for the company stocks. >> major milestone for amazon as well. stock up almost 90% in the last year. how to play it in your portfolio as "squawk on the street" continues afteth.r is

encore energy, america's clean energy company, now in production in south texas. energizing america with reliable and affordable uranium for nuclear energy fuel from our environmentally friendly extraction process. encore energy.

is it possible to count on my internet like my customers count on me? it is with comcast business. keeping you up and running with our 99.9% network reliability. and security that helps outsmart threats to your data. moaire dida twoo? - your data, too. there's even round-the-clock customer support. so you can be there for your customers.

with comcast business, reliability isn't just possible. it's happening. get started for $49 a month. plus, ask how to get up to a $800 prepaid card with a qualifying internet package. don't wait, call and switch today! $7 billion. and no word on whether they'll use. chairman and ceo warren buffet writing in the berkshire annual letter, quote, there remain only a handful of companies in this country capable of moving the neededle at berkshire and they have been picked over by us and others outside the u.s. there are essentially no candidates that are meaningful options for capital deployment all in all, we have no possibility of eye-popping performance. mike santoli joins us with his take on the headlines.

very buffet-esque. the performance this morning is not shabby. >> exactly. he's not talking about the stock because actually the performance there has been incredibly stock. if you look at it, if you sort of disaggregate berkshire what is in here really, i would say it's, obviously, the insurance business which has been really on the tear, progressive has been one of the best stocks in the financial sector, that's directly comparable to geico. the railroads have been middle, but united pacific has performed very well in the markets over here. energy, utilities, nothing special. really it's just the quality businesses that berkshire owns and represents, that have been incredibly in favor right now. so the stock does well. i do think there's a high hurdle, as he implies, for new investments in terms of the kinds of businesses they would like to own forever. that's what he's referring to here. not the stuff they trade a little bit along the edges. it's because of the size of berkshire, but also because, you know, he is very explicit at

being happy to buy treasury bills. in the absence of compelling opportunities, investment income, which comes through the insurance business, is mostly bonds. it was up 50% in 2023 because interest rates were higher. so he's happy to just say, hey, we collected $9.5 billion throughout insurance business in that form. therefore, our hurdle is high for figuring out what else to do with the money. >> the expectation of deploying $167 billion in cash shouldn't be one necessarily. >> i guess not. i talked a lot about the japan investments which were incredibly timely, incredibly sort of patient as he points out. they took a long time to accrue these stakes, these kind of trading companies, holding companies in japan, and it's worked out great. he has so much house money. commentary about didn't directly address apple. he's talked about apple over the years. if you think about it, his cost basis in apple is like $34 a share. if it gross 199 to 181, it's not

as if berkshire hathaway feels it even though it is on paper a quarter or thereabouts of maybe 17% of berkshire's market cap right now. >> about half of the equity portfolio. >> exactly. it's close to half of the equity portfolio. not by design. i think that's the way to think about it. he didn't say we need to have our biggest bet in apple. it was in 2016 when they mostly started buying the stock and what's interesting about it, too, the wind is at his back. if he doesn't sell much, apple buys a lot from everybody else. in -- since 2016, apple's cut its share count by, i don't know, 5 million. it's like, you know, a third or something like that. or a quarter. >> do you think the letter reflects the winds of generational change with munger gone now? >> to a degree. i think he's always really handed the credit to munger for that insight of saying look, don't just buy beat up value, cheap stuff. buy great businesses. that's been the case for 50 years. i think that's in the dna of the

company. we have pretty much an anointed successor. there's not a lot of suspense around that. i don't think that's the reason they're not making investments. i think nothing is rising to their standards. >> [ inaudible ] the way it's being cost. >> -- cast? >> the letter is reiterating things. the number of times he mentioned they made their money back in american express and coca-cola, that's kind of a cut and paste. so i think it's much more like steady as she goes. what's interesting is the industrial businesses, which precision cast parts and all these things that he's built up over the years, which are really a claim on global economic growth, that should theoretically start to do better. >> they're craving buy american. >> for sure. >> i feel like, look, the s&p is at 5100. you don't need buffet to say things are okay. >> mike, thanks. we'll talk in a bit. mike santoli. when we come back walmart splitting its stock. what that means for the mpy'inuee t d coans flncinheow

in a couple minutes. ♪ upbeat music ♪ upbeat music

how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what about zocdoc? so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you've got more options than you know. book now. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." walmart's three for one goes into effect this morning. our dom chu is looking at the ripple effects of that split. >> good morning, carl. will it make it more accessible for employees, get people more involved in the stock? that's what reducing the price per share does. it doesn't change the value of walmart. if you take a look at overall the picture for walmart and how it's performed since going public in 1970, this is the 12th time that we've seen a stock split for walmart. the first time that we've seen it since 1996. a lot was going on back then. if you take a look at the chart, the 11 two for one splits between 71 and 1999 did do a little something to help propel walmart. if you look at a chart long term since the 1999 split it had been trading in a range between 25 and $15 per share on the downside for some time up until about 2015 when things took off there. as for what this split does

overall statistically for the dow and people who track it, as of the close, number 17 on the dow. because of this split it goes to number 26 on the price weighted dow and given the fact that amazon is now part of the picture, amazon is now roughly the 16th or 17th most heavily weighted stock. basically bottom line if this does provide some kind of employee base for buying those shares and their employee stock purchase program it might have an effect going forward on whether or not that stock can find another catalyst to the upside. sara, i'll send things back to you. >> that was part of the goal, not to reduce the stock but make it more accessible for employees and stakeholder. >> if you have 50 or $60 retained and are lucky enough to have some after your paycheck is done and pay all your expenses you can buy a share of walmart hopefully contributing to some of the employee ownership. >> thank you. dom chu. the walmart stock split making room for another name to join the dow. amazon, one of the better performing mega cap winners in

february. can the gains continue? we'll discuss that one next. don't go anywhere. you know doug, ever since switching to workday you've been a real rock star. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart!

democrats agree. conservative republican for steve garveyrld. is the wrong choice for the senate. ...our republican opponent here on this stage has voted for donald trump twice. mr. garvey, you voted for him twice... as your own man, what is your decision? garvey is wrong for california. but garvey's surging in the polls. fox news says garvey would be a boost to republican control of the senate. stop garvey. adam schiff for senate. i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message.

♪ welcome back. i'm silvana henao with your cnbc news update. donald trump appealed his new york civil fraud verdict just moments ago. the $355 million judgment puts nearly $100 million in interest, was just finalized on friday giving trump a 30-day window to lodge the appeal. a judge ordered the payment earlier this month when he ruled trump lied about his wealth for

years to benefit his business. republican national committee chair ronna mcdaniel announced today she will step down next month. her decision comes after former president donald trump suggested the rnc needed a shakeup. trump handpicked mcdaniel after the 2016 election for the role. she was re-elected to a fourth term in january 2023. and a medical school in the bronx is going tuition free. thanks to a $1 billion donation. the gift came from dr. ruth godsubmit, a board of trustees member at the albert einstein college of medicine. it is the largest gift ever made to any medical school in the country. guys, lack to you. >> very interesting. next back to berkshire, sandy made a lot of his money. thank you. amazon one of the best performing mag seven stocks this

year and this morning one of the 30 names making up the dow jones industrial average. is that a good thing? avenue to kate rooney who has more on that move. >> david, good morning. it depends on if you're superstitious. something called the dow jinx the companies added tend under perform. davis research has new data on this. a few months after being dropped from the dow companies do tend to lag, some of that is psychological with selling around that news of their removal. fundamental reasons why they're being replaced. but over a year dow components booted are up 18% on average while new constituents gain about 10%. and that did hold true when apple replaced at&t, for example, and then you have salesforce replacing exxonmobil that dynamic held in that case. amazon's case it's going to take a momentum shift for the jinx to hold up. it's up about 90% over the past year with the rest of the high

flying mag seven and this ai boom walgreens is down. why did it take long for amazon to join the dow? the answer is walmart. the dow is price weighted so having both of those retail behemoths in the index would have been too big of a share. but walmart announced a stock split so that left retail underweighted and room for amazon. there's money track the index that tends to flow in but to a lesser extent than with the s&p. sno institutions don't benchmark and new flows would come from retail investors. amazon is the fourth most widely held name among individuals. back to you over. sticking with amazon our next guest says, quote, amazon is in clear third place when it comes to the ai cloud behind microsoft and google. gene munster, deepwater managing

partner joins us now, covers all the mag seven stocks. if nothing else just a sign of the times, right? does it move the needle one way or the other that amazon joins the sdmou. >> sign of the times as you said. it's a nice prestigious identity for them to be a part of the dow, but again, the punch power, the bevenchmarking power of bei added to the dow is 0.01 than the s&p 500. amazon did that in 2005. nice accomplishment for amazon. doesn't change the central question related to amazon in its place with mag seven in the next year, which is what are they doing in ai? >> what are they coming to ai? why do you say they're number three? >> so, three is being generous and may even shift it to four or five, but at the bottom line is that if you look at the top three, openai, obviously, has leadership, google has been slow

to ib nnovate. we do own google and frustrated with their pace of innovation but believe their data is in a great place. you ask the question about the key data that is going to form the next foundation models. when it comes to amazon, their data is good around commerce, but their partner anthropic has, in our opinion, the weakest of those foundation models. we use these model, a tepid model, and that is something that is going to hamstring what they're doing in ai. separately, if you look at what they also have a partnership, anthropic does with google, when it comes to ai, amazon just simply doesn't have the partnerships and the data to really elevate them. separately if you look at aws, which is, obviously, one avenue where they can capitalize on ai, is that that part of their business is less important. they grew at 13% in the december

quarter, well behind azure at 26 and microsoft at 30. they're losing share in cloud. from our perspective is that, you know, aws and their ai initiatives are good, not great. this is a good stock. it's not going to be a great stock. >> i wanted to come back to alphabet for a moment because you did say, gene, you're frustrated. you're not alone. i talk to a number of investors who wonder about the ability of the company to defend its monopoly in search and the pace of urgency or the lack i should say of urgency they seem to be showing at alphabet. are you concerned longer term, you know, unlike a meta or an nvidia, for example, it's not led by a founder. there isn't that sort of driving force at the top. >> yeah. if you're an odds maker you have to still put google as a major beneficiary here. i want to put that concern into perspective. three, four, six months ago

waiting for gemini that concern would have been 20% concern. now it's 40. we just continue to be surprised at how slow they are innovating. they do not want to make a mistake, and when it comes to ai, these ten blue links used by 2 billion people a day, they just don't want to disrupt that. doug clinton from deepwater put a great post out over the weekend is google dead? we're google investors and we're asking that question. >> yeah. >> the concern is rising. they need to do something and push these models in the next three to six months. >> the concern is rising, but you raise the point that investors' dill emma, can you really disrupt your existing franchise one that is that dominant or fall by the wayside because you moved too slowly? >> so we think that they'll be able to bridge that trigs from 10 blue links to a conversation which search will evolve to.

it's important to keep in mind who is in the conversation. specifically at this very minute right now this conversation is people who are well aware of what's going on with the different opportunities to find information. most of the world has heard about this, but isn't tuned in to it. that is the piece that google needs to manage to is that basically making that transition. they don't want to push -- the innovators dilemma, push it faster than they're doing now, but if they just turn it off, turn ten blue links off and made a single response in the next month that would be a disaster for their business. >> right. >> i think that it is all about the pace and i put this three to six months if they don't turn it around we'll be thinking hard about our position. >> interesting. thanks, gene. >> keep us posted than. gene monster. nat gas prices hitting the cheapest level in decades as wti tries to hold on to gains for

the month. goldman is out by the a bullish call on brent. what investors need to know after the break. about spiritu. i try to provide a really accessible way of them learning about religion and spirituality, that's not intimidating. somebody in the comments said, i have no idea how i got on nun talk, but i'm not mad about it. i'm going to teach you how to pray. i'm going to teach you how to meditate, how to connect with a higher power, because we need that. we need strength and comfort. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or

visit coventrydirect.com.

power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley

raising its brent summer peak forecast to $87 a barrel citing disruption in the red sea. our next guest says investors should not expect that rally to last and could get a retest of 70 mid year. let's get to a cnbc contributor john killdove. you think we go higher but reset. why? >> yeah. david, i would point out, but i do believe that we go higher here initially and in the next several weeks because seasonally there's a lot of angst that comes into this market just around the run up to the summer gasoline demand season in the united states. also, we have a rough patch with the u.s. refining sector because of storms and other issues with

the sector, so we're also focusing on, you know, that lack of turnaround, lack of production of refined products that's, you know, draining the supply and making things tight. usually in the past, these fears recede rather quickly once we hit memorial day and prices drop throughout the summer for gasoline and everything else and that's what i'm expecting. >> where is opec these days and opec plus in terms of trying to lower global inventories? is it working at all? >> it's having some effect, but it's also not getting them the success they hoped for at this point. they've been on this course of restraint, production output for the better part of a year plus now. i would expect them to roll out another extension of the current deal, the production cutback deal, probably through the end of the year. the saudis have cut as much as they can cut and i think are willing to cut. they're fighting the tide here of a slack china demand, which

keeps coming up with new headlines almost as numerous as the troubles in the middle east about their economic situation. for example, recently they had a big drop in foreign direct investment, which is a big measure for us to watch as to what's going on there. another bad signal for recovery there to occur. it keeps being pushed off and that keeps pushing the demand that opec is counting on pushed off as well. >> john, finally, we're talking oil but i would love to get your take on natural gas given the new lows and what your expectations are? >> it's going to be hard for natural gas to muster a rally given the weather outlook for the balance of the winter here. i will say this, david, been wanting to bring this up, as far as the lng pause the biden administration has put on, it's an interesting thing whether or not you like it is who you're voting for because if you're rooting for the industry it's sort of the bad development, but as we're seeing here, if you're

rooting for consumers and lower natural gas prices here in the u.s., you kind of like the fact that there could be less natural gas exports on the horizon than more because this market is very, very sensitive to lng exports, as we saw it during the past year with the issues with freeport and other things. for now natural gas is going to have a hard time getting back above the 250 level. it's going to stay somewhat more. but it's an interesting trade because if anything happens, weather or what have you, the upside is terrific. >> all right. john, glad we hit it then. always appreciate your time. thank you. >> thank you, david. just want to point out berkshire watching for a trillion dollars, it's reversed and lower by 1% after good earnings over the weekend. still ahead, a look at one mystery name up more than 130% over the last year and hitting fresh highs after an addition to the dow transports. that's your hint. we'll tell you why and what company it is next. programming note, big exclusive

this afternoon on the "halftime report," jamie dimon, jpmorgan chase ceo will be speaking with leslie picker. the to ydow up about 50 points the s&p going negative. s. a black ceo i may be an exception, but it's important to remember there are many exceptional people who create positive change and inspire others every day. black heritage month gives us the opportunity to horon extraordinary people in our community across america.

every day, more dog people are deciding it's time for a fresh approach to pet food. developed with vets. made from real meat and veggies. portioned for your dog. and delivered right to your door. it's smarter, healthier pet food. fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs!

before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. whoa, how did you defeat them? fund investment objectives, with a little kung fu strength and by connecting my devices to the most powerful force of all. skadoosh. hah, huh? cool right? amazing. harness the power of xfinity internet and stay connected to the things you love. ah, they'll be like this for hours. hello dad, hello dad, hello da. uh-oh. good bunnies. ahh!

watching the markets, the s&p going red after getting four points away from 5100 at open. ten-year is back to 4.27. bob pisani is watching the internals and other stories we have going on. >> the important thing is we have changes in the dow transports and industrials 37 haven't seen that in a little while here. we showed you that mystery chart. that's uber. uber is going into the dow transports today. the important thing about what's going on today, it's the first time we had a change of the

transports since december 7, 2021. that's when old dominion replaced kansas city southern. unlike the dow industrials, the dow jones transports are not hitting historic highs. the transports hit historic highs in november 2021. it's almost 7% below that high. under dow theory, the transports should confirm a new high in the dow industrials. the theory is that if you're shipping more, which is what the transports represent, it's a positive sign. so there is some question whether shipping activity is a good indicator when two-thirds of the economy is services. uber is a funny add to the transports in general because it's not really a shipping company. avis is in transports and it's just a ground transportation company like uber. the add likely reflects the dow transports committee that believe this is a transportation company, even if transports -- people instead of packages.

this has been a big six months for uber. the speculation began building that uber would be added to the s&p 500 after a stellar earnings report november 7th, which allowed its inclusion of the s&p. from there, look at this chart, until uber went into thes&p 500, it was november 18th, the stock jumped%. s&p tends to add stocks that had strong price movements. stocks going into the s&p off underperform immediately after inclusion. uber did, in fact, do this. it underperformed after its inclusion. again, it shot up. remember, they had that big buyback announcement of $7 billion on february 14th and the stock shot back up again. not surprisingly, uber has far outperformed every other transport stock in the last 1 months. here's your inclusion effect. up 132%. the top performers on the transports.

matson, 69%. old dominion and csx up 20% to 30%. did you see domino's pizza in they made a big thing with the deal they have with you uber. uber seems to be getting more and more important in the delivery business in general. kind of amazed why people would pay the premium to have uber deliver domino's pizza. they're touting this as beneficial. >> i sar gets could be 3% of deliveries. >> i'm amazed, given the cost of doing this, people would spend much more to deliver pizza. apparently the convenience factor of just having that uber app and being able to do that outweighs virtually anything. convenience matters. >> and the promotions they offer sometimes galvanizes the business. >> you're talking 30% more in some cases to have these deliveries. that's a lot in some cases. >> yeah. bob, real quick, jim and i were

talking about lack of ipos, you cover it so closely. you bemoan it, but why aren't we seeing more? >> there's still a valuation issue that exists out there. remember when reddit was announced in 2021. we were talking about valuations of $15 billion. it depends on who you're talking to right now but it's $5 to $10 billion. that's a haircut for a company that, you know, still doesn't make money. there's still these valuation pressures that exist on them right now. also there's -- think about the a.i. story here. there's not a lot of big a.i. stories. i highlighted one that was going to announce last week. i think you'll see a lot more of that. you have to be able to get some kind of excitement about really big growth and revenue prospects. and the a.i. story is still very young. it's hard to -- i think that that's going to really juice up the ipo market once we start seeing companies like that. >> but the business model needs

to be focused on generative a.i. and its use and what -- it's new products that, perhaps, are in their early stages or -- >> the ipo market is not going to beexcited by del monte, which is on there. panera bread also on there. those are perfectly legitimate -- >> panera was a public company for a long time. >> there's a legitimate business that people think is suddenly going to explode. it's not going to happen. >> there are politicized like shein that are getting delayed because of regulatory questions. >> you've got a few concerns. >> a few potential tech companies that are out there. there's a lot of companies that are existing in the whole space around these service -- around the high-end server industry that's out there. i did a story on that last week. if they can can just get out the door and stabilize, i think that's a good sign just by itself. let's just see. then we'll get the a.i. business. >> the they, if they -- >> reddit. >> if reddit can get out the door. >> beginning of april. >> bob, thank you.

after the break, don't miss the chairman and ceo of whirlpool. of course, our live market coverage continues right here after this. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. but at t. rowe price, we're letting curiosity light the way.

asking smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare. and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) constant contact's advanced automation lets you send

the right message at the right time, every time. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact. helping the small stand tall. you know doug, ever since switching to workday you've been a real rock star. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart!

good monday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen. new addition to the dow this morning, amazon. what that says about market sentiment and the rally in tech stocks this hour. the ceo of whirlpool on set, macro commentary and highlights from the company's investor day this hour. later on, jpmorgan's head of debt capital on what to expect from m&a this year and where to look for value in private credit. first, though, take a look at stocks right now. started with a mini rally. the s&p has lost some of its gains. the nasdaq started out weaker and now higher thanks in part to tesla, which is making a move higher, as well as nvidia and palo alto networks continuing to come back. alphabet, amazon and microsoft are under a little bit of pressure as far as what's working in the overall market. energy is one of the better performing sectors with a rise in crude oil, consumer discretionary, technology and