Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money  CNBC  February 26, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

5:00 pm
so, they're doing quite well. and they're growing services. growing everywhere. so, i would never knock walmart, but tjmaxx can still do great. >> and, of course, advertising now with acquisition of vizio. gerry storch, thank you for joining us. well, the major averages finished lower, including the dow, despite amazon's addition to the industrial. that's going to do it for "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. a google glitch. shares of parent company alphabet sinking 4% today as it struggles to get footing in the a.i. race. google's now fallen into negative territory for the year. why can't this once unstoppable stock seem to get out of its own way? plus, opportunities abroad. berkshire is betting big on the japan. and the ambassador is here with his own picks in the region. why he's got a yen for investing. >> oh, my. later a new entry in the
5:01 pm
weight loss industrial. bitcoin's big bounce. and zooming in on zoom earnings, where shares are going next. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, steve grasso, dan nathan, and guy adami. google saying today it will relaunch its gemini a.i. picture generator in a few weeks. the softwaredebuted this month was pulled. alphabet shares dropping 4% today, notable standout today. they're now down more than 10% off the highs of the year. and today's move puts the stock in the red for the year. alphabet has been far underperforming its a.i. rivals. meta jumping 36% today this year, microsoft is up 8%. so, why does google seem to be struggling so much in this a.i. space, guy? >> i think it's a number of reasons. they have a messaging problem, without question. they had that emergency meeting
5:02 pm
a few months ago to talk about different things. they're doing -- they're having a difficult job explaining how they've been in a.i., probably longer than any other company out there, maybe not named microsoft or apple. but i also think to a large extent it has to do with the high flying tech names that have taken their thunder away. why be in a google a opposed to nvidia or micron or broadcom that trades up 2%, 3%, hour to hour. i think that's part of the problem, as well. technically, if we can put up a chart, the level we just traded up to, the same highs we made back in december of 2021, so, now the technicians will look at this and say, there's a major double top here. there are a litany of things to be concerned about. valuation has always been compelling. >> seems to be going down on the same things all the time. always the concern about where it is in the a.i. race, that it's falling behind, that the product isn't as good as other competitors, that maybe there are upstafrrts out there that wl eat its lunch.
5:03 pm
>> yeah, so, going back to the bard launch in january 2023, this was after chatgpt came out and really took the whole tech community by storm and surprised folks here. and it's really important to note this stock was trading and $90 back then. so, it closed today at $137.5. so, tim will mention, it has kept pace with a lot of the stocks once it kind of got back on its horse. what guy's point is, it's just the narrative. this is a company that goes bag seven years said it is an a.i.-first company. they spend a lot of money on machine learning, you know, tens of billions of dollars probably over the last decade or so, so the fact that they can actually have an upstart like openai really kind of eat their lunch in a way, you know, that is now going back 14, 15 months or so, at least that's been publicized. so, here you are now and it comes down to something that has been a really difficult topic in the last six, seven years, about, who are programming these systems? who have access to these systems? this is the reason why this stock is down a lot today in
5:04 pm
particular. the whole tech world is in a bit of a backlash here, so, i think investors are shooting first, asking questions later, because they don't have a whole heck of a lot of confidence that bard or gemini advance is going to be rereleased as something that's going to be something up to snuff. >> if the concern is, who has control over the algorithms and what these models spit out in terms of being able to, you know, massage history, whatever you want to call it, misinformation, why aren't all the tech giants down then? why isn't the indictment made against all of the companies that have the same problem, theoretically? >> because there's been no wow factor here. and i think about it more from playing defense. they can't play defense in an environment where we're on the cusp of people approaching search in an entirely new way. dan brought this up, i'm not going to -- i'm not necessarily going to be doing anything different with my phone going to google, but microsoft might have a shot where they never had a shot with bing. so, i think that's part of what's going on here. you can look at other of the megacap names and look at apple,
5:05 pm
say what's going on there, apple's underperformed the s&p by 16%, it's down 5%, 6% year to date, so, it's really underperforming, and we're not attacking apple under this construct. i think all of the headlines around a.i. is that it's a challenge to the legacy business. not playing offense like meta and obviously like nvidia, but of all the names, it's not the core of what they do to make a.i. chips, it's really meta and somewhat amazon and everybody else. >> they own search. so, let's start where their strength is. >> right now. >> they own search right now, but when you look at a.i., this is their own messup. they did this. they have an agenda, and the problem is, they did this, not the other companies, where you said, how come everything is not down sort of in sympathy. that is their own mess. they have to clean it up. so, can they clean it up? will they be trusted to? and when you look at where a.i. came about, they were lagging, dan touched on it, they were lagging from day one.
5:06 pm
i -- guy was in my head, i was in guy's head,when you look at that chart, the double top, you know who else suffers from that? amazon, almost. so, for now, google, i sold my google today, i don't think they're capable of fixing it on their own. and i think they are idiosyncratic with the rest of the tech space. >> are we being too hard on alphabet? >> i think so. >> because this is not the first time we've asked, what is wrong with alphabet. >> i feel like i've fought their corner. >> you have. >> some of the more famous boxing, like, managers -- >> cornermen. corner people. the fight doctor. that would be your type of guy. >> call me the fight doctor. >> the more you know. >> but this is a case where google's performance is something that over the last year, certainly, has been absolutely fine. over the last two months, it's been awful. and it's been awful relative to a couple names, but -- >> but is it -- isn't it not their fault last spring when we were talking about the same thing? >> i don't know. because i'm not sure we really know how to value wait anybody's
5:07 pm
a.i. business. i agree with the line that dan said, which is that they've done a terrible job communicating their strategy to markets, but i'm not sure we know what everybody's market is, again, outside of -- it gets back to that question we asked that one day where asked, is the pie any bigger than it was entirely in the world in terms of enterprise or consumer dollars or whatever we're calling the marginal erosion? in google's case, right now, the market is assuming there's not just moorjarginal, but there's erosion in the core search business. i'm not sure that is right. there are people out there looking for opportunities to buy weakness, especially significant weakness. look at meta. everybody hated meta at ten times and now they love it at 24 times and i think you could see something like that with going m. >> i agree that there are some assumptions being made to the attack on the core search business, but the fact that it is unknown, the impact is unknown, and say google is standing in play with this a.i. offering and it's not that great, but that it is not e enough, what they is not enough
5:08 pm
to be a moat to defend their current search business, so, they lose a percentage of that, and every percentage is something to the stock -- >> cuss damato. >> that's tyson's guy. you bring up a great point, and my bupush-back, that's why it's valued with a market multiple. >> it's already in. >> we'll see about that. the flip side, another side of this coin, multifaceted, is, if you think somehow magically this whole high valuation high growth tech stock trade is going to not implode but start to go the other way, you're going to find safety in names like google 100%. i think the dollars will find their way there. >> seven years ago, when, you know, google, alphabet, they were still google said they're an a.i.-first company, they had 79% gross margins. they are expected to have 61% gross margin. so, if you talk about a monopoly they have in and around search, which is one of the best -- you hear tech luminaries say it all the time, one of the best business models ever built, and
5:09 pm
you have that sort of monopoly and you're starting to lose it and it's becoming less profitable, and all of a sudden, there are upstarts out there, like a perplexity or something like that, people are talking about companies like that the way they were talking about google challenging incumbents 20 years ago. so, think about that. that's how technology works. so, to me, i think it probably makes sense that you have this underperformance. i think it is a show-me story. i think there will be some high profile stuff. i think there is pressure. i saudiw dee dre bosa talking at it this morning. they will come out with a better product and it will be retooled, that sort of thing. so, you almost want this thing to get hit really hard, to trade well below a market multiple -- >> sounds like another guy standing in his corner. mickey. mickey and rocky. >> kevin rooney. >> one of his best roles, really. >> no doubt about it. he was also --
5:10 pm
>> riveting as this -- >> we didn't -- we usually start with housekeeping. welcome back steve, tim, melissa -- >> some of us worked. >> yesterday was finerman's birthday. yesterday, i'm pointing over my shoulder. sorry. back to you. >> this is -- this is google's problem. we're all making this way too complicated. this search issue that they had with -- not factually correct, is their own issue. this was totally avoidable. this is something that was their agenda, they shot it out, and they're paying for it. >> sounds like an opportunity. >> for who? >> well, for google investors right now to step in. >> sounds like a fixable problem. >> yeah. >> if they want to fix it. >> why wouldn't they want to fix it? it's factually in vecorrect. it's get to our guest today. they have a $175 price target on the stock. jason helstein is here to talk about why he sees so much room
5:11 pm
to the upside. jason, great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> why do you think google is underperforming over the last couple of months? what have the problems been? what can they do? >> really, it's a lack of confidence in leadership. probably the best example would be, this is, like, you know, asking somebody to get in a waymo that will only going 20 miles an hour. no one's going to do that. so, right now, the company is putting too many guardrails on their a.i., because they're too concerned about, you know, the criticisms, and they just have to kind of lean in and stop being so defensive. >> so, you're saying they actually have the technology, but they're sort of throttling it to make sure there are controls on it. they're doing that and spitting out on dubious results. what kind of guardrails do you
5:12 pm
mean? >> we know this is a company who knows how to index the entire internet better than anyone else. if you look at the data, you know, i -- if you look at the usage of google from november to january, it's 3% according to similar web. being up 7%, percent of users, goorgle is, still, like, 98%. if you look at percent of searches, they're at 91%, and going back year and a half, they were something at, like, 92%. so, the point is, this company knows how to index and find information better than any other company in the world, and the question is, why won't they allow that information to come through? and again, it just seems like there's too many training wheels that have been put on their generative a.i. product and it's actually hurting the output to the point where investors have lost confidence right now. >> but jason, it's tim, thank
5:13 pm
you for joining us, is -- is search behavior about to change? i guess that's my question to you. in a way that google's former dominance, and you talked about those numbers, every time people count them out, and i know you are fighting in their corner, as well, footnote, but -- you're thoughts here? i mean, because if search is about to change, as we know it, it really opens up the playing field. >> again, i think what people are really excited about with chatgpt was just how it had almost a human-like interaction, right? and it captivated consumers. i could have a conversation with a computer, way more efficient than alexa or siri. but when people started to get fact-checking, there were a lot of issues. so, what people have been using generative a.i. for is the automation of tasks. put something in, summarize it, which, again, the thought is, gemini actually does that pretty well, but the criticism is really when you're using it more like a search, you're asking it
5:14 pm
a question, right, like, who is better for the world, this person or that person, right? or create an image of xyz and it won't do it or the image just kind of doesn't make sense. and so, you know, it ultimately, you know, google is giving you, you know, typically, we use it in business, right? four, five results and you use your intelligence to go, this is the one i want to look at, right? you know, do we get to the point where it just gives me one? and again, it just seems like we're still kind of very far away from that, but google should let gen a.i. do what gen a.i. does, which is, you're asking it to automate things. so, again, like -- i think we all need to see kind of what this looks like without the training wheels, and that's really, like, a management decision, and then being willing to basically accept the criticism, right? it will be an imperfect product, but let it function.
5:15 pm
>> have you talked to management about letting the training wheels off or the loss of investor confidence? >> no, they tonight take much criticism from us on that. >> well, i thought maybe on the conference call. jason, great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> so, i don't know. let the -- it's as simple as that? >> i think these guys all have it. some -- the things need to be tweaked, people need to go, they need to actually have a remessaging, they need to relaunch the product. we did our demo a couple weeks ago, they tonight have an app yet. they own android, so, that was a thing that they wanted to focus on first, and it's got a great market share globally and get the free product out there, but this is not great, right? but this is one of those things that we'll look back and, like, eh, it was probably just a blip. unless, to tim's point, does microsoft, with bing and chatgpt 4, do they start to make some in-roads, do the upstarts start to do that? it's important to remember, the
5:16 pm
last two times this company has reported earnings and given guidance, the stock has got down 7.5% and 9.5% from 52-week highs. so, investors are willing to take it back up after these sorts of reports, but there are some problems in their business that are not, at least, living up to investor expectations right now. >> efficiency is one problem. if they had a year of efficiency like meta had, rebranding that would be amazing for the stock. >> this is something where i bought it thinking they were going to catch up in a.i. i thought this was going to be their year for a.i. when you look at nvidia, there's nothing that you have to -- no qualm over. you have your chip, you know what you're getting, you know they have an 86% market share. google has over 90% market share in search. it was theirs to keep in a.i. and they don't have it. >> when ruth took the helm at google, alphabet, whatever we're calling it, it was about to be the year of efficiency.
5:17 pm
it was going to be transparency into all the different structures. some of that really worked out of the great and some of that has stalled. we have a news alert here on chevron's acquisition of hess. pippa stevens has the details. >> chevron saying it may not complete the acquisition of hess within the time frame or even at all. and that is thanks to exxonmobil and china natural offshore oil corporation saying that they have a right to a first refusal provision in that joint operating agreement for the offshore guyana asset. that is why exxon wanted to acquire hess, because of hess's 30% stake in that guyana offshore project. now, exsob said those conversations will continue, and that they owe it to their investors and partners to consider their pre'em shun rights in place under their joint operating agreement. now, to be clear, it is not sure at this time if exxon will make a counterbid, but for right now, they are saying that they have the right to do so. chevron saying it could then delay or possibly cancel their
5:18 pm
deal to buy hess. melissa? >> all right, pippa, thank you. pippa stevens. that's quite a turn, tim. >> it's quite a turn. it is interesting, because chevron did not really on this deal. >> right. >> this is the most exciting oil exploration site in the world and a place that people are fighting all over yet it wasn't rewarded. if you own chevron here, i don't think the lack of this deal follow-through is alarming, and, in fact, their ability to pay down debt over the last four years and be able to break even, even on their div at around $45 oil is reason alone to buy chevron, but this is a world class company. >> the stock sold off when they announced it and it's selling off when it looks like it's not going to happen. they lose both way, which is typically what happens to me. this is a stock, you talk about valuation, 11 times next year's numbers, balance sheet such that they were able to announce a $75 billion stock buy-back a couple falls ago that seemingly marked the top of the stock, so -- i think, again, these big cap integrated names, you buy on
5:19 pm
weakness. coming up, a berkshire backing. warren buffett's company upping its stake in the land of the rising sun, but where should you be in the trade? the ambassador tim seymour lays out his picks next. plus, bitcoin's fabulous february. the crypto surging 30% so far and on pace for its best month in over a year. the stocks and proxies benefiting from that bounce when "fast money" returns. this is "fast money" with melissa lee. right here on cnbc. or even tro. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve memory. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription.
5:20 pm
5:21 pm
you can make money the hard way as a bullfighter or a human cannonball... or save money the easy way, with xfinity mobile. existing customers can get a free line of our most popular unlimited plan for a year! not only will you save hundreds but you'll also be joining millions who have connected to america's most reliable 5g network. sure is a lot safer than becoming a stuntman for money. get a free line of unlimited intro for a year when you buy one unlimited line. plus, get the new samsung galaxy s24 on us.
5:22 pm
welcome back to "fast money." berkshire hathaway shares hitting an all-time high before pulling back today. it is upping its best on japan, saying it has increased its holdings in very large japanese companies. the average stake in those names now standing at nearly 9%. so, if warren buffett is all-in on japan, should you be? we asked our emerging markets specialist in the house, the ambassador tim seymour, for his top picks. so, tim, what are your -- >> i mean, look, i feel like i've been bullish on japan for a long time. it's one of the heaviest weighed in the international etf i
5:23 pm
advise on. and japan, to me, gets better and better because the macro around it is, we know deflation is over, we know if anything the bank of japan is no longer going to be targeting the yield curve, but down to companies themselves, the payout levels are growing. there's pressure on them from the tokyo stock exchange to actually increase those payout levels. the three names, the heavyweights, mitsubishi. it is clearly the jpmorgan of japan. you're getting at at .9 times price to tangible book. the spreads on their loans international and domestic seem to be growing. a lot of efficiencies. another one, sumitomo mitsui. we talk about the yen weakness, that's been fantastic for japan. and the ultimate beneficiary of yen weakness is toyota. so, toyota motor would be the third name. and it's had a massive run. up 28% year to day.
5:24 pm
we've had really interesting conversations on this desk about the revolution of hybrid ev, and where that may be where the story is, and the competitive landscape in the u.s., back to pre-covid level on sars. toyota positioned well everybody where. >> i agree on toyota, if you want to talk granular stocks. but i like it going through ewj, but if you go back 34 years or so, that's how long it's taken to take out that top. so, we don't know, is this a double top? could it pretend a fall from here? if you look at inflation rates, they're falling pretty prer sip us to li and that's been a catalyst, that's been a tailwind, so, i'm not sure if they have proven themselves, but itoyota. >> the prior all-time high was 200ish around january 2022. with e blew through that. maybe you get a back and fill to that level, but the ewj, i think the all-time was $73, we're within earshot of that. so toyota, absolutely, looking
5:25 pm
for pull-backs to buy this stock. >> none of the stocks are in your acronym for the year. >> what is? >> bicep. >> the i is the ticker of this international etf that grows payout levels. i'll just say this, for japan -- >> we did -- >> look at that. look how happy i look there. i mean -- >> we -- >> blicep. nice job. i mean -- look. at the family dinner table, people can be friendly, too, and this is -- i don't deserve the blicep. but i'll say this about japan. we waited four decades for them to go to fresh all-time highs. this is the kind of breakout that is interesting and got some ways to go, in my view. there's a lot more "fast money" to come, here's what's coming up next. just a few weeks left in winter, but crypto seems to be thawing out early. the big moves in bitcoin. and the proxy players seeing a boost. next. plus, more gains out of the weight loss drug trade, but this time, it's a different danish
5:26 pm
pharma stock surging. how this company is trying to tip the scales ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. in times square. we're back right after this. is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.
5:27 pm
welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so, my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcía's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, -hey, john reese, jr. -how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister's told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. encore energy, america's clean energy company, now in production in south texas.
5:28 pm
energizing america with reliable and affordable uranium for nuclear energy fuel from our environmentally friendly extraction process. to build the electric vehicle of the future, you need partners. mining partners. technology partners. education. supply chain. energy. what if one partner could do it all? that partner is ontario, canada. with all the critical minerals to make electric vehicle batteries. 65,000 stem graduates per year. one of north america's largest i.t. clusters. a fully integrated supply chain. all powered by one of the cleanest grids in north america. ontario. your innovation partner. ( ♪♪ )
5:29 pm
welcome back to "fast money." bitcoin on a tear this month, up 28%, closing back in on the $55,000 level today. rival crypto ethereum doing even better, soaring 40% in february. and crypto proxies like coinbase, microstrategy and the grayscale bitcoin etf are coming along for the ride. how much higher can this trade go? tim, you're thinking, hopefully higher, with coinbase. >> i think it can go higher, and again, the -- coinbase is my proxy. everybody's got different proxies. people have overthought the dynamic around the bitcoin etf and the fallout, because if anything, all it does is signify there's a greater addressable market. there's greater follow-through. it's interesting, because yields are kind of moving higher, if anything, you know, we've got some fed speak this week, we have a pce on thursday, inflation's sticky, and less fed, less dynamics have been great for bitcoin. the institutional adoption has made it kind of an all-clear. there's obviously plenty of
5:30 pm
deliberation of where you want to be. >> go ahead, dan. >> i'd love to hear -- >> you've mentioned their balance sheet, steve talked about this. robinhood is breaking out. what -- >> longer the base -- >> everybody at once. >> keep getting more revenue from the grip poe -- >> the balance sheet is very good. and we've had the basing formation for the last 2 1/2 years. now it's trading north of 15 bucks. >> i'll just say this. the proxies, you mentioned two different ones. his is probably better at this stage than yours, because everyone knows -- i think that's become really clear is if you want exposure to bitcoin, buy bitcoin, buy spot -- >> well, now that's an option. >> my point is, like, why have all the it diosyncratic risk of company that has competition, that has to maintain margins, just buy the bitcoin. >> i'll tell you why. >> you own it, as well. >> i own bitcoin, i own
5:31 pm
ethereum, but i own coinbase and i've owned it for the last six months. and my view is the on-ramp to digital assets has been coinbase. and so, unlike buying a microstrategy, where you really have a bitcoin, you know, since you have it on your balance sheet, that's kind of what buyi have the opportunity elsewhere. i realize it's not simple, but that's the point. i actually think there's a greater profitability that's not priced into the stock. >> and i think you get the higher beta on it. i'm long marathon digital -- >> on the proxies. >> on the proxies, correct. it was up 21%, 22%, marathon digital today. i-bit was up 6%. i joke around, call it a texas hedge, right, so, you our the futures and you own the cattle, but you get that outsized performance based on that. so, ethereum is the one you buy going into the etf approval process, which should be happening in the summer.
5:32 pm
coming up, the weight loss drug battle is expanding. a danish pharma stock that isn't novo nordisk is surging on positive drug results. what it means for competition in the space. and some afterhours action to bring you. shares of zoom and workday on the move after reporting results. the details out of those quarters when "fast money" returns. back in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! i want a massage, in amalfi, from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years. not just— with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. i guess i'll get the caviar... just kidding. join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next.
5:33 pm
every day, more dog people, and more vets are deciding it's time for a fresh approach to pet food. they're quitting the kibble. and kicking the cans. and feeding their dogs dog food that's actually well, food. developed with vets. made from real meat and veggies. portioned for your dog. and delivered right to your door. it's smarter, healthier pet food. get 50% off your first box at thefarmersdog.com/realfood your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire
5:34 pm
5:35 pm
welcome back to fvm"fast money." the s&p down nearly 0 p.4%. shares of domino's pizza jumping 6% after its results this morning. the restaurant chain saying it will raise its dividend by 25% starting march 9th and increase its buy-back program by an additional $1 billion. and some stocks hitting records today. hilton, tjx, costco, waste management, some of the names at all-time highs. amazon trading near its highest level in more than two years after its first trading on the dow jones industrial average. the stock replacing walgreens/boots alliance on that
5:36 pm
index. let's check in on shares of expedia. the company announcing it will cost 1,500 jobs, 9% of its work force. take a charge between $80 million to $100 million related to layoffs. a new drug from zealand ph pharma, showing fatty liver dis disease. for more on what this means, we're joined by jared holz. great to see you. what's interesting about this is, they scary address mash, which is the fatty liver disease, and not obesity, and yet, there's this jump that this will be an obesity drug. >> right. it's debatable whether that's going to come to fruition or not, i think. when you have two major players already, the study not designed for obesity, designed for fatty liver disease, and a bunch of
5:37 pm
other metabolic diseases that kind of underlie that condition. we just don't know. i mean, it's interesting. there's a similar construct being worked on for obesity specifically. i think we just have to wait a little bit more until we kind of figure out what this mash market actually is, because as of right now, it seems like it's a subset of obesity -- >> right. >> and if lilly and novo can kind of address the more mild to moderate population, we just don't know how big these other drugs are going to be. >> the study -- i don't want to say it's not clean, but there are some differences. it looked like it studied people with less severe mash, in terms of its stages, where as lilly was looking at more severe cases. it also, as you pointed out, you know, studied a certain molecule that they have, plus try seven tide. is it possible that the notion is that it addresses the mash market, which takes away one
5:38 pm
potential driver for the obesity drugs, or is that just not -- >> yeah, i think that's how a lot of the street is looking at it. there are different pockets within this mash market. there are complexities to it. we don't have to get into that now. but there's mild to moderate, there's severe. it seems like competitors going after this specific indication are kind of looking at the more severe patient populations, because i think lilly and novo would tell you the same thing, they think that the glps are going to work for the hidmild t moderate. f-3 and f-4, zealand, madrigal, their drug is on the docket to get approved, so, maybe the mild to moderate, lilly/novo, more severe, which is a smaller subset of the population, goes to the smaller bio tech companies. >> but sort of taking a bigger view of this whole space, i
5:39 pm
mean, a week ago, we never heard of, or, the general population, you may have heard of zealand pharma, but we never discussed zealand pharma, it never came up. now we're talking about it, listed in denmark -- >> right. >> does this sort of -- >> 50 bucks, guy, if you can name the currency in denmark. >> kroner. >> come on. >> you just came back from cope n hagen. >> still owe me 50. >> underscorethe notion that there are competitors, or pote potential companies out there that we have never heard about. >> yeah, for sure. for the institutional investor that is not just trading health care stocks or just bio tech stocks there's so many of those. we discussed structure on here before, viking, the list goes on, there are many of these small players that are all kind of angling either towards obesity, towards a pocket of this market like fatty liver disease, so, we're going to keep
5:40 pm
on hearing about it, it's so obvious there are more of these players. roche did a multibillion dollar deal buying a private company late last year, they're going to be more of these that we -- i'm sure i'm missing a lot of them. >> doesn't this tell me, then, i should be selling lilly here? if there's a competitive landscape where everybody is catching up and we're paying, you know, and extraordinary tech-like multiple for lilly. >> the one thing i would say, tim, on this thing is, when you consider the investment needed just to kind of manufacture and commercialize these drugs, given the market size, we saw what novo did with $11 billion purchase of just three manufacturing facilities and lilly has kind of earmarked, i think, $3 billion, $4 billion this calendar year for that, i don't know how bio tech companies in this construct of the market that we're talking about can afford to do that level of investing. so, i think, for the time being, lilly and novo, way ahead.
5:41 pm
>> say merck buys them -- >> big cap pharma. >> and that big cap pharma is in a great position to throw all the bankroll at it. >> that's the trade. if you think there's going to be a consolidation wave here, we've seen astrazeneca do a deal, we saw roche do a deal, there are going to be more competitors here. i just think lilly and knovo still, at this stage of the game, the data sets we're talking about here with small cap bio tech are very early, i just think there's time. >> so, litly is sitting on top f $50 billion of revenues next year. what is that revenue number have to be to justify that type of market cap in your opinion? >> it's got to be close to -- pretty close to $100 billion. >> okay. so, fair enough. so, can they double revenues in the next -- because that's the math, right? doubling revenues over the next year and a half to -- >> no, no, not in the next year in a half. in three, four, five years. it's feasible.
5:42 pm
still, i think that's, you know, a little bit liberal to assume, but i think the next few years, they could. certainly not next year. but they have all the cards. they have the best drug in the category, zepbound just launched at the end of last year, we're kind of in, like, you know, top of the first inning with that. so, i think there's time. and, yes, i think it will grow into the multiple. it's been an incredibly awe-inspiring stock to just look at in the framework of health care. we don't see these moves too often, even moderna only peaked at $250 billion at, like, you know, during the craze of the pandemic and here we are, this thing is $750, so, yeah. >> jared, thank you. >> thank you. >> for an in depth look at how obesity drugs have reinvented weight loss culture, be sure to tune in for the premiere of my new documentary, "big shot: the ozempic revolution." that's right here on cnbc. coming up, two of julie biel's top small cap picks, and
5:43 pm
the names and why she thinks time is now to look for big opportunities in these smaller names. plus, zoom and workday on the move after the latest results. we'll have the numbers and the latest commentary from the calls, next. and during february, we're celebrating black heritage. here's the ceo of m&t bank. >> as a black ceo of a fortune 500 company, i may be an exception. but it's important to remember that there are many exceptional people who create positive change and inspire others every day. black heritage month gives us that opportunity to celebrate the many exceptional, absolutely extraordinary people in our black and brown communities across america.
5:44 pm
businesses go further with 5g solutions. that's why they choose t-mobile for business. pga of america and t-mobile are partnering on 5g-powered analytics to help improve player performance. t-mobile's network helps aaa stay connected nationwide... to get their members back on the road. and las vegas grand prix chose t-mobile to help fuel operations for one of the world's largest racing events. now is the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business.
5:45 pm
even if you live in a bubble, you can't stop workplace accidents. so talk to your agent about workers's comp insurance from pie, or visit pieinsurance.com. safety first, then pie insurance.
5:46 pm
welcome back to "fast money." a double earnings alert for you. zoom video surging in extended trading, up by just about 9% after beating on the top and bottom lines. workday moving in the opposite direction. down by 8%, despite an earnings beat on q-4 revenues. pippa stevens has the details on both of them. let's start off with zoom, pep pippa. >> upbeat guidance, for q-1
5:47 pm
revenue and eps estimates ahead of expectations. revenue from its enterprise customers, a key growth division, also ahead of street account estimates, with full-year enterprise revenue rising 8% year over year. they announced a $1.5 billion buy-back and said it saw average monthly churn of 3% during the latest quarter, which was down slightly year over year. shares of workday taking a hit despite better than expected earnings numbers. the company reiterating its full-year subscription revenue guidance. noting largely in-line report could be an issue for investors who were hoping for more upside. the company announced plans to acquire hired score, which is an a.i.-powered talent software company. those shares down more than 8%. melissa? >> pippa, thank you. pippa stevens. zoom, you may recall, is what? >> the z in zebra. >> yes, it is. >> here's the deal about zoom. very profitable company.
5:48 pm
78% gross margin, been left for dead. i've been looking at it to outperform. when they talk about the buy-back, i mean, that's just accretive. the stock trades at 13.5 times, so, i think this company gets taken over by the end of this year, but right now, a beat and a raise is good enough. >> we were just talking about high multiple soft ware stocks and here's workday not living up to expectations. >> it's been a roller coaster over the last couple weeks. you had adobe, palo alto. soft ware today along with semis, same old story. coming up, a small cap opening. one of our "fast money" traders says the time is now to get into the space. julie biel will make her case and run us through some of the big ideas. more "fast money" in two.
5:49 pm
(ella) fashion moves fast. setting trends is our business. we need to scale with customer demand... in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon. their solution for us? a private 5g network. (ella) we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. our customers get what they want, when they want it. (jen) now we're even smarter and ready for what's next. (vo) achieve enterprise intelligence. it's your vision, it's your verizon.
5:50 pm
is it possible to count on my internet like my customers count on me? it is with comcast business. keeping you up and running with our 99.9% network reliability. and security that helps outsmart threats to your data. moaire dida twoo? - your data, too. there's even round-the-clock customer support. so you can be there for your customers. with comcast business, reliability isn't just possible. it's happening. get started for $49 a month. plus, ask how to get up to a $800 prepaid card
5:51 pm
with a qualifying internet package. don't wait, call and switch today! welcome back to "fast money." small caps might be the next place to look for opportunity, according to "fast money" trader julie biel. she says the group is attractive. she's here to share some of her picks. hey, julie. nice to see you. >> hi, how are you guys? >> as a group, small caps are trading more attractively than mid and large? >> yeah, i mean, they're
5:52 pm
inexpensive, relative to mid and large, but they're also inexpensive relative to themselves historically. they're kind of trading at multi-decade lows. and, to me, that actually makes a ton of sense, right? small caps tend to be more cyclical, more sensitive, it's harder for them to raise capital in difficult times. and they are in still a bit of anearnings recession. if you look under the hood, you can find names that are higher quality and growing their earnings. and they're not that expensive. so, i think it's kind of an opportunity, if you are willing to do the work, to find some really nice little undiscovered gems. one i would think of is a company called black line technologies. this is, you know, kind of in the sleepy domain of accounting software, but what's wonderful, their founder has returned to the business. and that is always a great sign. they can focus on the things they really care about, which, in this case, is about running the product and not talking to investors like me, yuck. and i think they're really starting to turn their profitability around, and there's still a lot of
5:53 pm
low-hanging fruit for this business. i think it's an interesting and compelling opportunity. the other one i like is a business that has been able to grow revenue over time. it's also founder-led, with a strong ownership interest in the business, and what this gives you is the opportunity to participate in a lot of the fin tech and payments markets, but without having to choose who the winners are going to be, endava is an i.t. provider. they help you decide who you should be using to upgrade your technology suite, but they're agnostic as to who that is. so, they're in a nice position where they leverage their reputation, and they give you a compelling value proposition in terms of how to install and implement all that software, so -- i think these are two interesting businesses, both of the founders run the business and they own a lot of stock themselves, so, you're aligned with them, and that makes a big difference for long-term investors. >> julie, in terms of the stocks, endava might be so bad that it's good. morgan stanley and hsbc both
5:54 pm
downgraded the stock last month. jpmorgan initiated neutral. but all the price targets have been raised to 80 bucks or so, which is significant. is that it, the stock's just so depressed now that people are finding value? >> yeah, i think there's pressure in terms of where they are in their cycle, and the momentum in their business. they have a lot of momentum kind of coming out of covid, and now people are a little bit concerned that while the long-term looks really good, the near-term is going to be hard for them to keep repeating that business. but i think if you can kind of look through the valley of that, it's still a real opportunity for investors. >> do you need small caps as a group to trade better in order if t for the individual stocks to trade better? >> no, there are plenty of very expensive small cap names that are high quality. it helps. it doesn't hurt when small cap becomes more in favor, but the quality rises to the top over the long-term. there's going to be near-term periods where small cap just is out of favor no matter what, but i think you should always have a small part of small cap in your
5:55 pm
balanced portfolio diet. >> all right, julie, great to see you. thank you. >> thank you. >> julie biel. anybody here in small caps right now? >> i tell you, small caps, i think, are the ultimate growth kind of conduit, if you feel it's happening and you feel -- clearly they have underperformed. we've wrestled when the turning points are coming. underperformed year to date. >> yeah. >> so, my west rock is as close as i can get to a small cap name in my portfolio, but i like what julie is doing. she's sifting through all the rest of them for profitability companies, because 40% of the iwm is unprofitable. so, they've lagged so far behind, what she is going to make a lot of money on is when we start cutting rates, this whole group should outperform. >> she's crawling through the wreckage. dave edmonds. >> nice. >> who was in "rock pile" with nick lowe. >> sorry, mel. >> who cares? >> nick edmonds cares. nick lowe cares.
5:56 pm
>> up next, final trades. that's how much i care. rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. - "best thing i've ever done." that's what freddie told me. - it was the best thing i've ever done, and- - really? - yes, without a doubt! - i don't have any anxiety about money anymore. - great people. different people, that's for sure, and all of them had different reasons for getting a reverse mortgage, but you know what, they all felt the same about two things: they all loved their home,
5:57 pm
and they all wanted to stay in that home. and they all wanted to stay in that home. - [announcer] if you're 62 or older and own your home, you could access your equity to improve your lifestyle. a reverse mortgage loan eliminates your monthly mortgage payments and puts tax-free cash in your pocket. call the number on your screen. - why don't you call aag... and find out what a reverse mortgage can mean for you? - [announcer] call right now to receive your free no-obligation info kit. call the number on your screen. at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to
5:58 pm
is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's age renew formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond. you always got your mind on the green. not you. you! your business bank account with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy. (♪♪) that's how you business differently. intuit quickbooks.
5:59 pm
time for the final trae. let's go around the horn. tim? >> enjoyed that japan conversation. mitsubishi. cheap in my view. >> steve? >> sofi. great earnings report. it's climbing and retracing. sofi. technicals. >> dan? >> yeah, rivian got trashed last week. it might fill in that gap back towards 15. >> guy? >> i'm seeing it on the twitter.
6:00 pm
a lot of people love the rock pile, mel, so, you're in the minority in this one. welcome back, steve, mel, and tim. >> good to be here. >> happy birthday, karen. >> thanks, guy. >> chevron. >> all right, thank you for watching "fast money." see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more as"ft." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple: to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. ♪ ♪ ♪ hey i'm cramer! welcome show cramerica watch. and make little money to educate. you call me 1-800-743-cnbc or @jimcramer. listen up! there is no next in nvidia. ar

110 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on