and that's all for this edition of dateline. i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [sinister music] ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines. jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon downplays the expectations the u.s. economy may skirt recession arguing investors are too optimistic about the future. >> 78% we will have a soft landing. i give it half that. they will play out and will have an affect, but we don't know what they are. in my mind, i'm cautious. hype or here to stay?

a.i. dominating at mobile world concerning as microsoft expands investment in europe with president smith telling cnbc the technology is transformative. >> the market tends to get things right even if the shor short-term unknowns. what i know is there, a.i. is the defining technology of this decade and maybe even of our generation. fast fashion retailer shein repor rep reports listing in had london over new york. a show of solidarity. leaders gather promising support for ukraine as emmanuel macron says all option must be on the table, including boots on the ground. >> translator: there is no consensus to send troops on the

ground. in terms of dynamics, nothing should be ruled out. good morning. if you are just tuning in, we have a quick check of the market action. one hour into thetrading session and this is the picture on the stoxx 600. we are down, but only modestly so and still driven by the earnings reports. most of them with better than expected figures here. i do want to show you the indices one by one. we saw the german index, the dax, hitting another record high this morning. 17,461 points. that is the levels we're trading on after that nvidia-fueled rally last week. we are seeing more caution with that rally running out of steam. lofty levels for the ftse 100 which is hanging on to the flat line and cac 40 is off 0.1%.

let's show you the sectors one by one. basic resources is a big under performer the last couple days. it is reversiing that trend today. gold prices have ticked up higher on the back of the weaker dollar. autos are moving up as well as healthcare and media. we get uk consumer confidence and durable goods as well as home prices. that is culminating in the pce report coming from the u.s. on thursday. let's remind you what has been powering the record highs. 50% of the stoxx 600 gains the last 12 months are down to this, the granola. this is our magnificent seven set here that we have in europe. we have a couple of them here for you.

roche is down a touch. senofi and lvmh. novo nordisk is up 0.5% in copenhagen trade. steve spoke to sharon bell from goldman sachs who coined the acronym and said what sets the stocks apart an. >> the s&p trades at 21. they had similar growth. they are not super expensiiexpe. i think these companies have very good balance sheets and many have cash on their balance sheets just like the magnificent seven companies. stable growth and good margins. they hedeserve premium. >> bell talked about which central bank will cut rates first. take a listen. >> we expect the ecb to cut from april.

a bit before the fed and bank of england. we will see if that happens. we had a weak set of data in europe the last couple quarters. on balance, that supports equities. moving on. jamie dimon is warning that the markets are too optimistic for a chance of the soft economy. speaking to cnbc, dimon is concerned about a number of economic factors. >> 70% or 80% chance we will have a soft landing. i give it half that. we may very well have one, but pres the market thinks it is higher. the other mistake is to look at the year. all of the factors with qt and fiscal spending will play out over multiple years. they will play out. in my mind, i'm cautious. >> dimon said higher rates could create issues in the real estate

sector for lenders. >> you talk about the defaults being higher. that is partly normalization process. they were so low for so long and you are not at a crisis level. if rates go up and we have recession, there will be real estate problems. some banks will have a bigger real estate problem than others. >> dimon addressed investor interest in a.i., rejecting comparisons to the dot-com bubble. >> this is not hype. this is real. we had the internet bubble and eyeballs, that was hype. this is not hype. it's real. people are deploying at different speeds. it will handle a tremendous amount of stuff. we will get better, faster and smarter. bad guys will use it. we have to encounter a system to combat the bad guys. >> i want to make a comment on

his comment on the real estate se sector. if we see a couple of problems at some lenders, it may be a whack-a-mole situation. really important perspective here from jamie dimon. let's move on and take a check of oil prices this morning. brent crude is off marginally so. wti at $77.56. flat on the day. we did see some price gains over the last couple days or so given the renewed concerns around attacks in the red sea. let's get insight into the oil markets and what's ahead for 2024 and beyond with the global strategist who is here with us. let's stick with the red sea and middle east. the premium in oil markets right now is pretty small. should it be higher?

>> we agree. we think it is small right now. $2 to $3 a barrel. it is about right. if there is a lean on it it, it should be higher. >> why isn't the market pricing in the risk? >> it is because the recent events in the world where barrels will be lost and don't go away. the market has got eused to the idea the market can have trouble and you may not lose barrels of oil. we think the premium built in right now has little risk of supply loss, but frictional cost. >> if we look at the oil price since november, it has been trading between $70 to $90, what

could take it out of that range? >> we think it's not so much related to the middle east situation. that is the easy one. if it flared up into an actual war between countries, then that's the obvious way you get there. outside of that, which we don't think is likely, it is really the more classic blocking and tackling in the oil market or loss of supply in different parts of the world. we had supply disruption. that is why oil is tight right now in the physical market. you had outages, whether it is storm related and libya was out for a while. north sea. some of it is seasonal. some of it is the regular things that happen on supply disruption. the other thing is for the first time in a while, we have a positive skew on demand.

demand for us has been a base case and that is negative around the base case. now we had a slight positive l lean. >> because of china or the u.s.? everyone thought china would come back big time and that didn't. could this be the year when it comes to demand? >> a great point. the expectiations for china was mas massive. this year, we think it will be broad spread. a fairly evenly distributed increase in demand. in comparison, china grew 1.3 billion barrels a day on demand. this year is not quite half that. they slowed a lot. we need other parts of the world to have good demand growth. i think there is a chance for that. >> can we come back to the supply picture? the supply last year was the

surge in u.s. production. that caught everyone completely unprepared. it's a tough spot to be in with the saudis. they want to defend their market share. at some point, the market was nervous thinking are we going back to the price war of 2014. how will that evolve? >> that's a great point. we have been expecting big u.s. shale production year after year. at times, as big as we estimated, it comes in low because the u.s. surprises to the upside. it did it again last year. i think it does put pressure on the rest of the world, opec and saudi in particular, they are down to 9 million barrels a day in production, saudi. the question is will they be happy to go lower if they need? we think the answer is no. they are hitting a point where they don't want to go lower to offset growth in the u.s.

this year, the u.s. is finally moderating its growth by our estimates instead of growing by over 1 million, it will be 650,000 a day of growth. that is still a lot, but not as has massive as the last several years. to the question on the price war, it is a possibility. it's been not that long ago that the wars happened. russia, saudi before covid. we think if saudi feels they are taken advantage of by the rest of the world, they may say we'll raise production as well like everybody else and you have a price war. >> finally, i need to talk about opec plus compliance. the market had little confidence in that last year. what should we expect in terms of compliance this year? >> it will be tougher than historically has been. nobody really wants to cut.

they want to be a good member of the group of opec. underneath it, there are a lot of budget pressure and strategy with peak oil demand is down the road. we can debate when. let's get the assets out of the ground and monetize them. there is more inherent pressure than in the past and that will result in lower complicomplianc >> thank you so much for coming in. let's get back to the macro data. japanese core inflation came in at 2% in the month of january. slowing for the third straight month, but still beating analyst forecasts. the slow down in prices was due to the decline in energy costs. expectations are now that the bank of japan will finally end the negative rate policy some time this spring. uk food flinflation has slod

to the lowest in two years according to the consortium. the brc said the combination of the lower input costs helped bring prices down. headline inflation data is expected to be released in march. of course, that will be welcome news for the chancellor of the exchequer before his election. the stud fry shows he won't hav enough room to stop high taxes still coming up on the show, we will be looking ahead to the future of investing and the impact of a.i. with the ceo of fintech. we'll be back in two.

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the earnings parade continues. puma warns of a weaker first half of the year blaming

negative currency effects. it reported a 6.6% growth bo boosted by sales in china and europe. for the year, the group forecasted a mid single digit growth. staying in germany, munich re post ed a better than expectd decline over profit. it expects to generate a net result of 5 billion euro this year with insurance revenue rising to 51 billion euro. it announced a buyback of 1.5 billion euro. let's switch to paris. the engineering group bouygues beat the forecast and raised dividend payout after a solid performance in all of the segments. net profit rose to over 1

billion euro from 973 million euro in 2023. shares up nicely. topping the stoxx 600 this morning up by 6%. pushing on. shifts in technology will dramatically change the outlook for the wealth industry by 2028. that is according to a study by fnz and deplloitte looking at firms and how they should adapt for the future. among the top is a.i. with 69% of executives saying they believe it will significantly alter the way the firms work. let's get more on this with the founder and ceo of fnz. great to have you on the show, adrian. why is this a seismic shift for the industry? >> i think this has been established with the

digitalization and the infrastructure enables this. wealth management hasn't been digitalize. it needs access to real-time data and assets. it comes down to the infrastructure. that suffered from legacy and it suffered from fragmentation. we turn that to a platform model and that enables us to take advantage of the shifts in the space and that is something we see more and more accelerating going forward. >> how would the offering change in practice? would it be a different on-boarding process? if that could be sped up, that would be fantastic or would it be the advisory and higher you go in terms of segments with the high net worth.

can that be done through a.i.? >> you picked up on-boarding. that is a great example. in the industry based on data, people look backwards and forwards and take weeks to open accounts which many firms say that is a standard they have to struggle with at the firms. they are leveraging process and digitalization and machine learning and a.i. that is a good example of how the industry is is evolving. i think if we go to the other end of the picture and you talked about private market assets, that is 18% of all global assets. your average investor has no access to them. that comes down to the same core

problem that the platform has been fragmented and not well km connected and hard to change. other problems that we solve by modernizing so people really can access investments and including alternatives and focusing on the climate relationships and not worry about on-boarding and all of the other challenges. >> can you still offer bespoke services? let's go to the ultra high net worth. your solution of being of assets, does it work for the sophisticated high net worth client ere? >> one of the things we have done is take the offering you could only offer to high net worth people because it required a long number of people to support and we used technology

available to everybody. that is what we mean by it. what you get is ahigh net worth and that also needs the same upgrade. you picked on a very important point. a corporate action is a corporate action and the reconciliation is a reconciliation. the other thing is an emerging tr train. it is the same infrastructure whether i'm a billionaire or saving 200,000 pounds a month. it is a different experience on the front end. >> do we still need the adviser or private banker who does a degree of hand holding during difficult market periods? >> for that reason. i think advisers and private bankers are one of the long-term

advisers of the ever increasing use of a.i. we're asking people to save money regularly and asking people to take risk with the money in order to benefit from long-term returns. that is something that is hard for them to do because they care about the money. that comes down to trust and i don't think you will see that trust replaced by chatgpt. it will be enhanced. you will see the data and accessibility and insights all enhanced through the use of data and a.i., but not replaced. trust will always be about a personal relationship between adviser and manager and private banker and client. i think a.i. is good for that. it makes people focus more on this and less on some of the things i was talking about like forms and on-boarding and reporting. >> you have a private banker becoming more efficient. let's talk about the environment

you are operating in. you were founded in 2003. you have seen a lot. a couple of cycles and funding has been tough for fintechs the last couple years. is it looking rosier this year? >> i think we have shifted the world from 20 years of free capital or fairly near free capital to another cycle not changing anytime soon where capital is harder to come by. that change is gone and i don't see it coming back. i don't see it as a bad thing. i think with the cost of capital goes up, that means the businesses will survive and those with sound business models will survive. i'm more excited that this makes our business model more compelling going forward because it has scale and it is global and it really brings economic benefit and business benefit to

our klclients. >> adrian, thank you. adrian durham. chinese founded fast fashion giant shein is reportedly, interesting story, mulling the possibility of switching the initial public offering from london to new york. the company is now set to be of the opinion it is unlikely the securities and exchange commission will approve the listing according to bloomberg. cnbc has reached out to shein for comment. that would be a shot in the arm for the london stock exchange. for london as a whole, so many companies have opted to list elsewhere because they can fetch higher valuations elsewhere. it remains to be seen. we will monitor that story. coming up on the show, french president emmanuel macron cannot rule out sending western troops top fight in ukraine. we'll have more on his comments next.

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welcome to "street signs." i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines. ceo jamie dimon downplays the u.s. economy may skirt recession arguing investors are too optimistic about the future. >> 70% to 80% chance we have a soft landing. i say it is half that. it will play out and it will have an effect. i'm cautious about everything. hype or here to stay?

a.i. dominating at mobile world congress as microsoft expands investment with president brad smith telling cnbc the technology is transformative. >> the market tends to get things right in the short term, but without the unknowns. what i know is this, a.i. is the defining technology of this decade and maybe even of our generation. fastretailer shein looking for a london listing over new york. a show of solidarity. leaders gather in paris promising support for ukraine as french president emmanuel macron says all options must be kept on the table, including european boots on the ground. >> translator: there is no consensus to openly endorse to

send troops on the ground. in terms of dynamics, nothing should be ruled out. u.s. president joe biden says israel has agreed to not engage in activities during the month of ramadan which begins in march. biden's comments come after he expressed optimism with a fires can begin by next monday as negotiations over the pause continue. the proposal deal whicill see t fighting stop beginning in the month of march. >> a cease-fire while that takes place. ramadan is coming up. they agreed not to engage in activities during ramadan to get

hostages. that gives us time to move in the direction our countries are prepared to move. moving on to emmanuel macron. he said france has not ruled out sending troops on the ground. charlotte is joining us here in the studio to give us more perspective. let's talk about the setting that he made the comments. >> it gives it a little bit of nuance to what he said. he was answering a question. he did not come out with announcement with troops on the ground in ukraine. it was a question from a journalist whether it has been discussed because the slovak prime minister disasked this. he said in principle, things should be ruled out.

maybe the countries feel they are not in the situation they can rule it out more. he was answering that question. because of the context being important for the meeting which was organized with the urgency with ukraine and the next few weeks will be crucial and the recent setbacks that ukraine has suffered with the russian aggression and the risk that former president trump could return to the white house. europe was to show it hasn't lost resolve with ukraine. 20 european leaders want to send that message yesterday. going back to president macron and he said europe will do whatever it takes so russia doesn't win this war. mentioning no con ssensus of sending troops on the ground. he said nothing should be

excluded. >> translator: everything was discussed this evening in a very open and direct manner. there is no consensus to officially openly and with endorsement to send troops on the ground. in terms of dynamics, nothing should be ruled out. we will do everything necessary to ensure russia cannot win this war. >> he talked about how a couple of years ago countries are ruling out sending jets and heavy arrtiartillery. to put more context to the comments. nothing should be excluded here. a focus after the meeting yesterday was talking about selling more artillery to ukraine. france had been against the initiative from the chzech republic because of kmfrance's position is have their own production. they can't do that in the short term. they are on board with the plan with 15 other countries.

a plan drawn up to bring conclusion in the next ten days to coordinate support for ukraine. very interesting here. this is off the back of criticism against france not being as supportive and not publishing what they are delivering to ukraine. ten days ago, france pledged up to 3 billion euro in support for ukraine. france trying to get position with the biggest army and president macron trying to coordinate. >> absolutely. can we talk about macron more broadly? last year, he was very much trying to be the leading voice of more sovereign autonomy with europe vis-a-vis the u.s. this comes on the back of his visit to china. how is he being perceived in europe as being that leading voice? >> to be fair, president macron says this is something he has been defending since his first

campaign. that is very much the campaign before. trump coming on with difficult comments. that is part of macron's vision. the events have proved him right to a certain extent. he was asked yesterday if the initiatives were a sign that europe was worried about trump and nato not supporting the defense efforts in europe. he said this is not what this is about. our security doesn't depend on the vote of the american voters. we are sovereign countries. we defend on ourselves and we shouldn't outsource it. that is something he has defended for a long time. it is interesting other european leaders, because of the events, have become involved. >> because there is so much at stake. charlotte, thank you. the eu will aim to buy up to half of its military equipment from within the bloc by 2035 according to a draft document

seen by bloomberg. the purchases by the eu are made in third countries, currently, but the invasion of ukraine highlighted the weakness in the approach. the commission is expected to present the strategy in the next few weeks. the hungarian parliament approved the sweden accession into nato. the vote passed resoundingly almost two years after sweden's application ending hundrmonths negotiations. silvia amaro is joining us with more. >> that is right. after almost two years waiting to become members. defense alliance, they cleared the final hurdle by getting approval from the hungarian parliament. this is what we are looking at here. this is the next formation of the defense alliance with sweden

expected to become a full member in the coming days. one nato official suggested we could see that official moment taking place as early as friday. now it is worth remembering that sweden applied at the same time as finland back in may for nato. this was after the russian invasion had started in ukraine. finland became a member of nato last year in april, but sweden had to wait until now, basically, to get the final approval from all nato member states. we had to holdout with hungary and turkey. from the turkish per spespectiv they had to wait for concrete activity in stockholm because there was a concern of terrorism and turkey wanted approval of

sales of f-16s from the united states. when it comes to hungary, the reasons behind the delay are a bit unclear, but worth remembering that prime minister viktor orban is putin's closest ally. this shows a huge change in the border members and this is what president putin did not want. expansion of the defense alliance. we heard from the swedish prime minister. he made comments recently about how important this announcement was for stockholm. take a look. >> translator: sweden is now leading 200 years of neutrality. it is a big step. we must take that seriously. it is also a very natural step we are taking. membership of nato means we join the large number of democracies who work together for peace and freedom. the new home where neighbors

cooperate with safety and a group of countries that in practice belonged for a long time. sweden is an outstanding country and we are joining nato to better defend everything we are and everything we believe in. >> now that was the swedish prime minister there. it is an important moment for them. carolin. >> i live in switzerland. huge debate in switzerland about neutrality. the swiss have had massive internal debate about what to do with it and they have been attacked by outside, verbally, of course, and not playing ball and adopts sanctions. can any country in the western bloc, can any country afford to stay neutral at this point in time? >> this is a question that

austria is facing at this stage. it is not just switzerland. it is from those countries where the main point is they are keen to retain that policy. we have seen sweden and finland changing that and that is a watershed moment. there is an open question about whether the other countries can continue this neutral policy, particularly as we look at this geopolitical landscape that gets more and more complex. it is not just the russian invasion of ukraine, but the conflict in the middle east. there is more pressure on the countries which have adopted neutral policies and is this still the right approach? >> what change in language or change in strategy, if any, do we expect from the new secretary-general of nato? >> this is a very hot topic at this stage. at this stage, it seems he has the biggest support among the nato capitals.

you still have an open question. there are other candidates that are keen to get that job. nonetheless, whoever gets this role will have a lot of work on their hands. one of the open questions is can they force all of the nato countries to spend 2% of gdp in the defense that has been one of the open questions. for the next secretary-general, will they get everybody, 32 countries, will we see all of the 32 countries achieving that 2% of gdp target? let's see. it won't be an easy job whether it is for rutta or anybody else. thank you, silvia. when it comes to european equities, it is a patchy picture this morning. remember the rally by nvidia last week and european earnings, you see that is running out of

steam, but we're at lofty levels. the dax hitting another record high. we also had a couple of earnings reports here from the likes of munich re and puma. same applied to the cac 40 hanging on to the flat line. we had numbers from munich re which sent the stock up higher by more than 6%. smi is under performing. when it comes to the currency markets, there is dollar s softness. euro/dollar is down a bit. the dollar/yen is 115. we have good news for the doj because that means it can probably hike rates exiting from the negative interest rate policy soon. potentially as early as march. a quick check of the

european yield levels. the ten-year bund level is down a bit. this one is probably range bound for long. they see this level pretty much for the year. the italian yield at 3.89%. quick check of the u.s. futures. a few hours to the start of the trading session. we expect a rebound after the trading session with the dow fell 62 points. the s&p fell 19 points. this morning, the dow is set to rise by 22 points. nasdaq up by 39. let's cross back out to barcelona where car inpe karin standing by. >> think cloud, think data centers and internet edge all

which is impacted by a.i. i'll have more after the break. why choose a sleep number smart bed? can i make my side softer? i like my side firmer. sleep number does that.

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welcome back to the show. microsoft announced a partnership with french startup mistral a.i. as it looks to move into the a.i. space. microsoft is investing in the business referred to europe's answer to openai to help it unlock commercial and expands into international markets. microsoft did not give financial details of the transaction. karen discussed this deal with brad smith at the world congress in barcelona. >> this is one of the most important days of the microsoft technology support for europe. what we are fundamentally agreeing to is a long-term partnership so they can train and deploy their next generation models for a.i. on our a.i. data centers and infrastructure

effective immediately where they take their model and we e can hp them reach customers as a model as a service. they can reach customers directly. it means we're going to explore new research and development collaboration and, in part, focus on a.i. for models in europe. >> smith was bullish on the prospects for a.i. as a whole and compared it to some of history's most important inventions. >> over the long term, the market tends to get things right, even if in the short term, there are unknowns. what i know is this, a.i. is quite possibly the defining technology of this decade and maybe even of our generation. it is a general purpose technology that in some ways i compare to the printing press in terms of the impact on the life

of the mind. the ability of people to think and create and share what they know so other people can learn and get smarter and it will impact everything. so i think we're in the early days of every sector of the economy and what we call an a.i. economy and the truth is most people are still learning about it. there is a lot more to learn and build before it gets old and tired. nokia ceo said he was optimistic about the deployment of a.i. in the telco space. >> a.i. will be fundamentally important for networking. it is today playing a significant role in things like energy efficiency and optimization of the network and security management of the n net network. a.i. will be driving additional data traffic into the networks. when you connect the dots, you

have a.i. and cloud compute. the third element is the network with fundamentally improved capa capabilities. a.i. will be important in all that because you don't need to teach every aspect of the network to behave. the network will learn how to behave in different situations. >> other ceos spoke to karen about the partnership with nvidia and its own a.i. ambitions. >> we are really moving into the a.i. first space for us. a.i. is not new for us. we have been using it five or six years. we are in a partnership with the industry. that partnership is about trading and sovereign cloud with our datan't c ncenters. it is about using knowledge

especially on the customer relations side. for us, it means we are investing in this and not just a transitional partnership of buying and selling stuff. >> regulation, of course, was high on the agenda in karen's panel. here is what the ceos of vodafone had to say. >> given where prices are in the uk, i think some of the figures which tend to be fancifanciful, the most important point is the facts and uk is sliding behind like other european countries in conne connectivity. with the merger, we committed with a single networkbeing combined with the two entities.

we will have 11 billion investment plan for the uk. >> investment is obsolete. it is coming from the previous center. we need a next center if we want to build the super computers, this regulation is needed. this is looking to one part of the thing. we are losing to innovation. we are seeing the policy going forward and what we want to compete and what we want ten years down the road with narrow minded and if the market is wrong, the market is going faster than regulation. >> let's get back out to karen who has more from barcelona. karen, so much talk about a.i. and about the innovation and regulation as well. what about some of the gimmicks that you are seeing on the ground? what is most exciting? >> there is a lot of everything,

carolin. >> reporter: let me piece it all together. devices are one part of the puzzle. we started out talking about the european telcos and the lack of inve investment. the investment is key as we talk about the traffic coming from a.i. i'm in the networking hall. this is the way to ensure we power the future and connect everything. everybody is trying to lower the cost of the telecom gear because it is so expensive and the requirements are deep. we mentioned cloud, data centers and internet edge. when you see the revenue come through, don't forget the nvidia numbers. that was data centers. that is where the spend has been. cloud, the early monetization has happened. there are a lot of people on the ground here. this is an example of the software which uses the data at

the edge that a.i. will have to crunch. it looks like a gadget like other conferences. this is a car of the future. i think what is interesting to me is nvidia has also been the story the market has been very much chasing and it has a partnership with so many companies. those partnerships are huge here at mobile world congress. there is a lot to talk about with the french startup with microsoft which puts s europe i the game. carolin, thank you. that is it for the show. i'm carolin roth. "worldwide exchange" is up next. see you tomorrow. bye-bye. it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you have everything you need to sell online and in person. you

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." we start with stocks snapping a three-session win streak as another of the magnificent seven turns negative on the year. not hype here. the a.i. wave washing over wall street gets another fan. it is jpmorgan chase's jamie dimon. his comments to cnbc in a moment. also a $53 billion deal now in jeopardy as exxon makes moves to possibly break up the chevron takeover of the rival. and new report slamming the cultur