170. nothing catastrophic and still the trend has been higher. >> it has, how many of the last -- >> 15 of the last 17 weeks higher which is something we haven't seen in a while. underpinned by a better economy. that's helping the outlook for earnings and keeping the fed from cutting early but with good reason. thank you for filling in for carl. >> you're welcome. >> with that the s&p is down 0.02%. over to scott wapner and "the halftime report." welcome to "the half." i'm scott wapner. front and center, moving targets. yet another wall street firm bum ms up its view for stocks. joining me for the hour today josh brown, stephanie link, jason snipe, rob sechan. the dow is down about 164, 165. the southwest is a fractional loser as you see. the nasdaq trying to get

something going as well. we mentioned wall street targets going up. barclays, 5300 is where they go. we'll call it 5,000 and change. up from 48. they say it's because of big tech. what do you think? >> i think you're seeing a broadening out. earnings have been better than expected, expected up 10% to 1 2%. let me give you some examples. chipotle, total revenues up 15%. karn nal cruise up 40%. marriott, up 7%, up 17% internationally in rev, even procter & gamble, big and boring procter & gamble had organic growth at the high end of its 3% to 5% organic growth rate. so that's on that side of the equation, the consumer. on the manufacturing side, we look at ge, at united rentals, at eaton, you're talking 10% to 15% top line growth and margins across the board have been

steady to slightly higher. and so i think, this is about multiple expansion like it was last year with the market going up. this is all about earnings going higher, being better than expected. the economy is growing at a 3% clip and confidence at companies are much more improvement this year and they're spending. >> good stuff. the question then, jason snipe, can you count on nontech? can you count on it getting you to 5300? if we're going to get there, one suggestion is we'll get there due to big tech. tech makes the argument a lot of other things can work. the fundamentals are true. doesn't necessarily mean the stocks are going to behave like the fundamentals suggest they should. how would you answer the question? >> i think we can. i think we're going to get help from other places. if i look at pmis that are starting to expand, if i look at

isms, which are bottoming, and i think it will start to roll up, i think about other parts of the market that have not participated last year, that are starting to participate this year. if we look at industrials, at transports -- steph named a lot of the names that have done work. i do think these names, other parts of the economy, can grow. i think that's what can get us -- >> i'm looking at the biggest decline in durables since april of 2020, consumer confidence was below expectations. i feel, rob, whenever there is a reason to have a more defensive-like tilt, it's not from the traditional defensive tilts -- utilities, staples, what have you -- it's mega cap. go back to the mega caps. you can play offense there. can you play defense there. how do you assess this question of whether or not you can count on these other areas to get to 5300 if you think we're getting there. >> it turns out people don't

want those claims. they're ordering computers up 1.4% month on month. i think it's an environment, scott, where you have to respect momentum, you have to respect the economic trajectory, which has been positive, and respect earnings revisions which have been concentrated in some of the mega cap names which have been driving price performance in the indices. that said, you have to be, at the same time, mindful of valuation and the market has to recalibrate to less interest rate cuts than it once expected. >> isn't it already kind of doing that? >> it is but -- >> dare i say okay with it? earnings -- better earnings have helped with the recalibration. if earnings were bad and there were going to be fewer cuts, i

think we'd have a problem. >> you'd need multiple expansion. >> and steph says we're not getting it this year. >> no, but better earnings. >> selectively. you can't say every sector is delivering that. you have trends in some sectors, stocks that have build incredible moats in other places. when you ask the question, can we move higher from a market standpoint with this broadening out -- >> can the s&p get to 5300 without relying on big tech to take threw? you seem a little iffy on that. >> i would say you need tech and it will continue to have that momentum. i would say health care has positive earnings momentum and consumers had some -- communications, rather, has had momentum. if those continue to do well, you will get there. i don't think we'll see this

massive broadening out. i think it will be selective. >> josh brown? >> i'm on the complete opposite side, unfortunately, as my pal, rob sechan. i think he has this backwards. i want to be in anything but mega cap tech. those stocks are not leading and as they bleed market cap, the money is going elsewhere, and what's really great, it's going everywhere else. my son is in the stock market competition this spring. so he has, like, 90 days to outtrade everyone else. it's not an investing contest. you have to look at set yuts that are breaking out right now. we looked at all-time highs, not 52-week highs, s&p 500 names making all-time highs. there are 133 of them right now.

look at what's on that list. it ain't apple. it ain't alphabet. it's caterpillar. it's trane technologies, eaton, merck, procter & gamble, colgate, mcdonald's, rollins, jpmorgan, walmart. this is every sector, almost every sector you could think of with, like, the exception of utilities and energy has stocks that are within 5% of, again, not year highs, all-time highs. >> josh, we're saying the same thing, though. >> look away from mega cap technology. that's not going to be defensive. rob, those stocks -- >> josh, we're saying the exact same thing. you're naming selective stocks in other sectors that are outperforming. you're not naming -- >> the biggest stocks. the biggest stocks. >> no question. because the biggest names have the less exposure to high cost

of financing. they have the moats. of course it's the same message. >> i could run the same screen with russell 1,000, and i can give you $30 billion, $40 billion, $50 billion market cap stories. look at this company . look at this ajg. this is an insurance broker -- >> arthur jay gallagher, ajg? >> look at this chart. it's a $50 billion market cap. it's not a leader in its sector. it's not berkshire hathaway. there are hundreds of setups in mid, large in almost every sector. i want to be in s&p names not nasdaq names right now. >> okay.

perfect setup relevant today because the new moves we have are outside of the areas we talk about every day, the mag seven. jason snipe, speaking of cater caterpillar, you bought it. tell me why. >> i did. josh made a lot of great points. it's up 9%, up over 30% the last three months. one of the largest of construction and mining equipment away from the artificial intelligence technology boom. but if i look at the earnings and i look at eps, margins are a really strong balance sheet, names you could add to, again, growing and still has opportunities. >> stephanie link, what do you think of this move of buying caterpillar, a name you've been in in the past? >> if you think pmis are bottoming if there's a huge correlation, you probably even throw in john deere, which will

probably benefit as well. i think there's just other places i would rather own that would be off the radar screen of other investors. ai, they're doing a ton. >> they're margin plays. >> every stock is a margin play. >> they have shown evidence that margins have expanded in the last four quarters. >> you know my point. >> i'm not buying it for ai. >> i buy margin expansion and if ai is helping on margin expansion, i'll take that all day long. >> you bought more sherwin williams. >> housing is my favorite theme for 2024. sherwin williams is a housing play. all about paint. they've spent so much money on

paint and improving it at their sgna was up 15%, and what if home depot and lowe's call out on their earnings report? paint being stronger than expected. this company had a decline i think you'll see a reversal in the earnings. i think you will continue to see that. quantum services, earnings up 21%, revenues up 30%. they have a backlog of $30 billion this is about utility capex. no choice but to go higher and this is off the radar screen to some degree. >> josh brown, what do you think of these moves? you cited caterpillar at the top of your views on where we are right now, but you have cat, sherwin, quanta, and you can pick others as you like.

>> look, all of what stephanie is describing is exactly the way i'm thinking. this is the middle of the cycle. it's not early cycle, but it's not late cycle and the names she's talking about and the themes she's talking about is what should be working right now and the good news is it really is what's working right now. a lot of the stocks don't have a ton of coverage. it's not cloud computing. but they have earnings growth. they maybe have more earnings growth than we thought they would have six months ago when we were still in the midst of rate hike hell, and i think they can weather the situation better than their counterparts 20 years ago if rates had been going up as quickly as they just did. they went in having pusht out

pu pushing out debt. we had enough layoffs in the economy where the companies are fairly lean. i like everything she's discussed and echo her on housing especially. home prices are now going back up. it takes almost nothing on the mortgage front to see a re-acceleration in demand for homes. and that's demographic. it's not even the economy. it's literally the age that people are. they have to do it. and so i love that theme. i think it will work this year, too. >> so, rob, global hedge funds according to reuters citing goldman sachs data, the highest pace in eight weeks month ending february 23rd. bank of america equity client flow trends, may be buying comp services but it doesn't encapsulate what we're talking about in the total of big tech mag seven. they're selling tech according

to those flows that bank of america is seeing. we've been asking the question every day and now almost every week. it feel like you think the moment is here. maybe you're a little more selective than these two but has the moment really arrived? >> i don't know if it's here yet, but it's coming. there's no doubt it's coming. >> josh gave you a bunch of good data. it's maybe been under the surface, hasn't gotten enough talk. the litmus test for broadening is wrong. it's why industrials, more than half, are less than 5% from their all-time highs. >> you have tons of names that have perked up. when we look at our portfolios, our average portfolio, even though we own some of the large cap tech names, trades at a 20%

discount from a p/e standpoint to each one of their sectors, their relevant benchmarks. the thing you have to pay attention to is tech has been the sector with the most upward revisions, right? and that's been the biggest driver right now year to date. the other thing i would say is the most positive factor year to date has been momentum. every week at our investment committee meetings, we talk about when we're going to make these reductions. i think the one thing we ask, when is momentum going to break? that's what every fundamentalist hedge fund struggles with because they're fundamentalists. it's natural they will be on the early side of it. we have not and have ridden them a long time. we're totally acknowledging this is the most expensive area of the market. frankly, google is cheap.

it has some issues, but google is cheap on a relative basis. >> people like stacy rasgon would say it is cheap. >> if you looked at it, it's because of the explosive earnings growth. it's hard for us to chase that. if we'd been in a name like lilly, which we talked about this the last time. we've owned it for a long time. we have huge tax consequences. >> you don't own nvidia -- >> we don't. >> you missed it. >> i missed it. i was honest about it. >> this is perfect, too, if you have money that you think you want to finally put in the market from whatever the source you have, would you buy caterpillar today, which was at 204 a year ago, it is now 325. it's not that far from its 52-week high, or would you buy

nvidia today? >> i would probably by the industrial. >> why? >> we don't own either. >> i know, that's why i asked the question. >> it's hard to chase that cyclical sector. there are short-term trends. we're not traders. we've decided in that space to own totally different things, we own broadcom, we own a bunch of stuff that's done incredibly well. not as well as nvidia, but it's done well. >> you subscribe to what i believe as better than expected gdp. >> yes. >> it's been stronger than expected so how you not feel good about owning some of these industrials. i'm talking my book on quanta but caterpillar is trading at 15 times.

>> and there's a whole host of other stocks that are cyclical. we thought the market was way offside from the fed. thankfully the market is coming back in and that's been digested incredibly well. when we think about how do you manage around this when you have expensive stocks and clients with huge embedded gains. we're tipping up near all-time highs. we've been doing it over the last week. you're selling away a little of your upside. and what ends up happening is you've managed the risk in that exposure in the short run to some of those big names maybe coming in without creating huge tax consequences. if we prop it on that trade, scott, we're going to have more to put to work.

>> you said alphabet is cheap. how do you know it's cheap? >> when you look at google or alphabet -- >> call it whatever you want. >> it trades at a discount to the market right now. >> what's its forward? it doesn't trade at a discount, it's still at a premium. >> slight 19. >> if you believe the numbers. because they haven't been able to deliver on the numbers. >> their healthy fundamentals have been overshadowed by management missteps. >> i'll come to you in a second, josh. >> i think there's concerns about reliability in their ai models. you type some things in and some unexpected things come out. i would call that a management misstep. you've seen a little bit of

backup. there are long-term concerns around the moat of their computing business and lack of progress on operational efficiency, but it is one of the best position companies to capitalize on ai if they get their house in order. and you can take me back well over a year ago saying some of the same negative things about meta. and them got their house in order. meta kept 22% of their workforce. over the last year google cut 4. there's room there. there's operational leverage in that business, and i'm comfortable being overweight that. >> josh, you wanted to say? >> i fully agree with what rob is saying on alphabet and the parallels to meta should not be lost on the audience. meta looked like it was finished at the low. the low like jimmy cramer after the earnings on the air,

basically apologizing for being bullish on it. the bulls were right. jim was ultimately right. meta was in that place for a variety of reasons. it's different reasons why alphabet is there. they have not streamlined or got fit. there are problem problematic ideas that have nothing to do with running a business successfully. they're extremely profitable and have a lot of talent that's not su sundar. ruth a great example. she seems like she wants to get more aggressive i think there is a lot of opportunity for google to right the ship.

it looks like they're trying to turn themselves into the bud light of technology. people are not going to revisit until they demonstrate they're as serious as zuckerberg. >> do we expect anything out of another name that starts with an "a" in the mag seven? that's apple. the stock is no money, up 1.5%. we talked about the well documented issues and the most recent pullback in the stock. they have their shareholder meeting tomorrow. i don't know if it's a stock moving event. what's the issue here? >> i think for me there's a couple things. china was a met, it was not a

good quarter. i think the ai play, again, apple is not recognized as an ai player -- >> yet. >> to your point, yet. >> probably later in the summer. >> i think that eventually apple is one of the most innovative players, they will be rewarded. >> steph, a quick thought before we take a break. a recent move for you to get into it. >> i've been underweight forever. i still am but have been add to go it down 10% from the highs. the quarter was just fine. the guidance, we got a cut, got that out of the way. impressively services would stay double digit growth. a new $90 billion buyback. you have a couple of catalysts. everybody hates this thing now. i'm going the other way. up next, zoom.

the shares are popping on earnings. josh brown in that name. we get his take. we have big moves in autozone. we'll get the trades from the committee next. >> announcer: are you following "the halftime report" podcast? what are you waiting for? look for us in your favorite podcasting app. follow "the halftime" podcast now. these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq,

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we're back. as you see there, down a little more than 170, zoom shares, though, not down at all. up better than 7% on the back of earnings. josh brown, you are in this name. give us your take. >> i am. they beat on the top and bottom line, the earnings were $1.22 versus $1.15 expected. that's on $1.15 billion in revenue versus $1 .13 billion. it was growth of about 3% year over year. people were expecting flat. i guess 3% is great in that context. i know a very big thing a lot of people don't know. the analysts covering it know. it's almost as if nobody wants to hear this. they are right under everyone's noses transforming into an enterprise business, and, again,

not quickly, but they are, 220,400 enterprise customers at the end of the quarter. and they also have an ai product that is a chat-related product. that has over 100,000 users. there are some signs of life here, the expectations will remain low. i like that setup. i consider this to be value tech. no one is going to get excited about it. it ain't going to hit the momentum lists. and technically it's still in no man's land even with today's pop, below the 50, below the 200. i'm not racing out to buy more. i don't want to sell because i still think they're going to find that growth that's been elusive for the last eight quarters. and when they do, you won't be able to buy it because the stock will front run that. >> the highs of the day for shares of zm. lows today, jason snipe, on the back of earnings. new 52-week high. >> i like this one. listen, they beat on the top and

bottom line again. the bar was set lower, but if i look at seasonally, they're getting ready for their super bowl. this is the time when spending happens. yes, home prices are up since 2019, less turnover and moving around, i do like what they're doing. i think they have operational leverage. >> you own both lowe's and home depot. >> lowe's it's a matter of jumping over a low bar. they set it low again. trading at 18 times, it's a position that can continue to do well. we like home depot. we've owned it a long time. we think we can be patient as revenues re-accelerate. it's the highest quality business in the industry. >> jason, autozone, all-time high on the back of its owner. what do you think of this one? >> another one. it's emblematic of the interest rate environment we're in. aging vehicles are only increasing, they're doing good

work on the commercial side of their business. >> talk exxon and chevron. chevron's deal, exxon may challenge this, stephanie link, according to what we've been reading the last 24 hours or so. you got rid of chevron and now have exxon. >> i sold chevron -- i mean, that stock was terrible last year and then went out and bought hess and going internationally versus in the states. exxon is doing the exact opposite buying pioneer. that's why i sold chevron and bought exxon. i don't think exxon is going after hess. i would be shocked. i think they are so focused on executing the things they've already done and really expanding pioneer. that's where i want to be. the stock is super cheat at 5 times earnings. it has one of the highest dividends in the industry. huge cash flow. i like this one way better than chevron. chevron seems to have lost its way. >> you bounced it out of your book, too. >> i did. i sold it a little over a month

and a half ago. for me it's an execution story. steph, you hit it on the head. this hess deal, they didn't pay a premium for it. it's a reasonable deal. >> let's get the headlines now. president biden spoke briefly at the top of the meeting with congressional leaders at the white house that's currently under way. and the president pressed the need for ukraine funding calling it urgent and said it's congress' responsibility to fund the government as leaders face a friday deadline for a partial shutdown. the white house announced the president will meet with members of the teamsters union next month. the scheduled event follows a prior meeting with republican rival donald trump as one of the largest unions remains undecided on who to endorse in 2092 2024 elections. oleg orlov of the human rights group memorial sentenced in moscow today to two and a half years in prison for criticizing the invasion of

ukraine by, quote, repeatedly discrediting the russian military and denouncing the war yet again, orlov said in a statement to court he neither regrets anything nor will he repent for anything. brave man. scott, back over to you. >> appreciate that. up next, a new regime. blackrock says it's time t le down on this strategy if you want meaningful returns in the market. we'll tell you what it is, what the committee thinks about it as well next. [sfx: wind, rain and rolling thunder] nobody's born with grit. british announcer: rose is really struggling. it's something you build over time. american announcer: that's 21 missed cuts in a row. [car trunk slammed shut] for 88 years, morgan stanley has offered clients determination and forward thinking to create the future... crowd: stop it! ...only you can see. american announcer: rose, back in the winner's circle. [crowd cheers] [music out]

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welcome back to "the halftime report." blackrock today making the case for active management saying there is, quote, a new regime in the market. the world's biggest asset manager says higher rates, persistent inflation and geopolitical risks give active managers a better opportunity to beat, buy and hold strategies. they capitalized on index investing, but now they see a new regime.

i'd like everybody's take. josh, i'll come to you in a minute. we do have obviously book for those who are here. we have active managers. what do you want to make of this? >> we have active and passive, but it's definitely the environment for active, higher for longer. inflation remaining sticky. that's an environment that's challenging for lots of companies and active management becomes more valuable. you can look at international, at value, at small cap and broadly they're not doing well, there are names in each asset class doing tremendously well. we own vistra. it's up 29% year to date and the worst performing sector in the sector down 3%. why is that? there's a distinct between sector, market based, etf-based investing that changes things.

etf-ification pushes to unsustainable levels because of their construction. prices matter for sure. >> it's also sort of as david einhorn has made the case, jason, discourted the way that stocks are viewed. it's harder to do your work, so to speak, in the environment of passive investing, set it and forget it and it's much more difficult to execute than in the past. >> i couldn't agree more. given the macro backdrop, the market is a dynamic place. it's always been this way. but given that some of the challenges we have right now, i think is very important to do the work and figure out ultimately where you need to be. i think that is connected to

obviously active management. i think we need to be nimble in a market like this. >> there are always issues out there. there may be -- maybe it's better said as a different regime rather than a new regime. there's stuff that has the propensity where they would say, see, this is what we're here for, this is why you need us and not the set it and forget it, buy the etfs and let it run. maybe it's nuanced this time because the interest rate equation is obviously front and center and unknown. >> i think you want to have both, exposure to both. if you think on the passive side, the long-term total return for the s&p 500 is 7%. not bad as 18% decline. long term average, that's a good number.

on the active side, you have passive especially as basis points are coming down in the industry. so it's actually more attractive to own more active in your portfolio. i just think that it's really hard. people say they buy low and sell high. you really do want to do your homework in terms of who the active managers are. you have to get that right, too. >> josh brown, your take? >> i think it is true in a rising rate environment, there are probably going to be a higher number of active fund managers who find things to do that help them outperform. there's no academic literature anywhere at any time that states that, "a," anyone can select

those active managers in advance or, "b," there's any persistence to performance. even if you pick only fund managers in the top 25% over a five-year period you have an equal chance of them being in the bottom of the distribution than back in the top. it's very slim chance that anyone can have performance that beats the s&p over ten years. there are people who can do it. you have no way of knowing who they will be ten years earlier to select them and hang on. so i think what most wealth management people are doing, where they're using active management, it's sensibly and with a specific outcome in mind. for the most part, most of the benefit will be in how they allocate assets to begin with, number one, and, number two, after tax alpha, like, how much

did it cost to invest this money? you can't eat precost, pretax returns. you only get what you get after costs and after tax. it's complicated. i wish i had an hour. i n'dot. that's all i will say on the subject. >> up next our "calls of the day." we'll tell you what they are next.

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let's do some "calls of the day." netflix, price increase from 570. ubs, new 52-week high today. jason snipe, you own the stock. >> to me, they're the clear winner in the space. 29 million new subs in 2023.

the big focus for me is over sub growth. all the metrics are working. >> talking about streaming, i should let everybody know cnbc.com alex sherman within the last hour breaking a story warner bros. discovery halted merger talks with paramount global. we'll keep our eyes on that as you take a look at both of those stocks. paramount is losing a little bit on those reports, again, by our own alex sherman, cnbc.com. can you go there and read his full recap of that. lilly. price target to 850 from 680. i don't think i need to tell you why there's so much optimism around this stock. it is getting expensive, no? >> it is. one of our next moves is probably to trim the name. we've owned it for a long time. i think you still, like we said,

have to respect the momentum in the market as the most powerful factor. these revenues are growing at 600% year on year for these drugs. 30% of total revenue. at 43 times a different place than we entered the company. >> ge, price target 177 at wells. snowflake price target 290 at citi. stephanie link has both. >> they are going to reiterate their long-term targets for low double digit organic growth. i think there's a lot they can do on cost cutting. >> that's for aerospace. >> they are spending out for nova and so i do think, though, there's a lot they can do still because it's 14% of total revenue and something like raytheon is 8%. of course we will get more

details on snowflake. this one i am scared about, scott, i do like the story. data is the life blood. it's a new product cycle story. ha eryroblem is it's expensive. i veve intention of buying this on a pullback. a quick break. mike santoli still ahead. than t of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcía's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, -hey, john reese, jr. -how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister's told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. ♪♪ ♪♪

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we're back. mike santoli has joined the desk for his "midday word" word. mega caps a little tired. >> it teals like we're a little apprehensive. we have had these internal, you know, digestion periods over the course of this. four months since the low is today. you know, october 27th.

it seems like we've gone that period of time without a 3% pullback from the s&p. the only way you do that is strong momentum in the up moves and rotation instead of broad urgent selling on the down move. can you be so lucky it stays like that for long? usually, you get several 3% to 5% pullbacks for no reason over the course of a year and we haven't had one in four months. >> josh brown making the point that don't tell me that the market is not broadening, because there are a lot of big stocks and sectors that are at or near new highs. so don't look at the russell to tell you whether the market is broad. >> sure. >> look at these other massive stocks that are doing really well. >> there's been pockets of strength throughout industrials, consumer related stuff has done well. i was just looking too. since the low, everything outside the s&p 500, which is the completion index, it's the

vxf etf. it's 5% ahead of the s&p 500. if you just avoided the 500, you did better, because coming off a deeper correction, and also a lot of the big stocks not yet in the index are the story stocks. it's the crowdstrikes and things like that, other stocks that have not yet been inducted but are these big software names. we're back towards case if you look at the top of the russell, it's momentum, retail driven stocks. health and beauty, number two right now. >> mike, thanks. straight ahead, a pair of health care stocks heating up today. we're going to trade them. that's coming up.

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we're back with "two big winners and losers." that's viking therapeutics, what a love. announcing it had met phase one and two of its study, all those stocks getting big lifts. thursday on cnbc, premiering this thursday, 10:00 p.m. eastern time, melissa lee has a documentary. "big shot, the ozempic revolution." don't miss that. jim cramer has the ceo on "mad money" tonight. and then losers today, we want to highlight for you unity software is a loser.

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morgan stanley. jam-backed "closing bell" today at 3:00 eastern. hope you'll join me. liz young with, with marcie mcgregor. so we're talking tech. jonathan krinski, and vickie holly. she's going to sit with us here, as well. josh brown, what you have? >> sticking with zoom. >> thank you. >> ebay. very low bar going into this earnings report. we'll see if they return to profitability. if not this time, probably next. >> jason? >> ulta beauty. sales up 18%. i like this one. >> and stephanie? >> estee lauder. this one is down and out, but last quarter was an inflection point. they fixed the inventories in asia. i like their product profiles,

andest mates are very conservative. >> it's had a nice move over the last few months after some serious questions. >> absolutely. it's still down 48% from its high. >> china has been a problem. great stuff, everybody. i'll see you all on "closing bell." "the exchange" is right now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm dominic chu in for kelly evans this afternoon. here's what is ahead on the show. great for companies and households, but not strong enough to ignite inflationary pressures. so are we setting up for a goldilocks growth period? our economist thinks so. she's here to make her case. plus, here we go again. the countdown to a partial government shutdown is on. the biggest holdup this time, it's just that. it's time says our next guest. there's just not enough of it to get a deal done. he walked us through it and what would shut down