>> he lived his reality right. all right the dow and nasdaq moving much higher today. the s&p is up as well by 1%. thank you for watching power lunch. closing bell starts now. >> welcome to closing bell i am at mike's and totally in for -- mike santoli in for scott walker. if that weren't enough fed chair powell leaving expectations of summertime rate cuts or at least one intact. the rally is relatively broad today.

you have two thirds of all stocks higher. even energy coming to life just a little bit. nvidia, about three or 4% all day, no real news, 3 1/2%. approaching apples weight in the s&p 500 so there is plenty to like and investors are loving it. there are signs of rapid optimism in mergers and surveys. that brings us to our talk of the tape, we asked cameron dawson. also cnc -- cnbc contributor. if you are looking at the behavior of the market it got over bought and it is saying that way. that is usually a sign of a pretty durable rally. with stocks at record high, the

economy looking okay, you have the fed not doing anything today stop thinking about rate cuts. i think it is one of those situations where is the only bare case that there is no bear case? >> right now they are not giving any reason to pause this momentum. to your point you are still seeing this chase into the market and something we are watching closely because positioning is extended but not at extremes which it means -- eventually everyone will be on the same side of the boat. >> for sure even this one day pullback, just one day and this has been the pattern for a while. it got picked up and so the buyers are getting rewarded immediately and it reminds me

of the beginnings of 2013, 2017 where you had this acceptance of the bullish consensus about the markets. the market kept going even though it felt like it had to pull back. that is not a prediction, but an observation. >> what set the stage for all of this was a reversal in fundamentals. you foster from that is a very strong technical rally and a

lot of times when you break out from a significant high in the january 22 hi was significant, in terms of the duration in which you didn't revisit once again nearly two years. once you break out of that the bearish argument is that you will potentially get a failed breakout. this was the complete opposite. you are 6% above that breakout high. this is a powerful momentum driven rally and right now what that is suggesting is you want to continue to buy high, sell higher, own the winners. >>you mentioned the positioning and some looking at the retail

investor survey and it is all right up flashing in that upper end of the range where you get excessive readings. you have markets that can stay there for a long time. >> i think complacently -- complacency needs a catalyst. as well as sentiment to become a problem you have to have something that causes people to the risk. -- denied the risk. we see recovery encyclical areas. those estimates might have some upside that means until we get them to turn over then valuation sentiment and positioning become poor timing tools. >> that is such a great point. there has to be a shock at this

point in this breakout of the trend and i don't think it comes from the economic data. i think right now sitting there being the monday morning armchair economist is going to hurt you. you know you have a dis- inflationary trend in place and the federal reserve and the central banks are looking to begin a rate cutting cycle, so don't focus so much on the economics. i think what reverses the strong momentum is something we don't know that is the exile janice -- exogonous shock. >> the insurance on that is incredibly cheap. you are below 15 so you could buy the insurance if you need it.

>> let's bring it to you steve leishman so steve obviously second day of testimony from chair powell. >> and joe gave me the perfect lead in because there was strong hints in the air of summertime rate cuts. >> when we do get that confidence it will be a probe writ to dialback the level of restriction so that we don't drive the economy into recession normalizing policy as the economy gets back to normal. >> later president -- a couple

more good inflation reports could provide the confidence she needs to cut and there was also the president of ecb sparking a rally, she had a simmer -- similar handle. >> we clearly need more evidence, more data and we know this data will come in the next few months. we will know a little more in april but we will know a lot more in june. >> so now two days of testimony by the fed chair, multiple speakers. pretty much where it was. mike i think there might have been concerned going into all this that powell may end up a little more hawkish, but he did not. >> i think any hawkish turn that may have been anticipated would have been a huge change

in the story and framework they have been using for a while. >> all of that is predicated on the data behaving the way it is going to be. i really the -- like the ay joe said -- we have a jobs report tomorrow that will show a step down from really unexpected 353,000 in the prior month to around 200,000 this time around with a low unemployment rate, but the market i think is really interesting. it is fine with what has happened which is this extension of where, when the fed will cut and also by the way a decline in the number of cuts you will get there and the market is struggling. maybe it wants more but it also doesn't want the other side of this which is the idea that if

the fed is cutting fast and strongly it is doing so because the economy is weak. >> steve, we appreciate all the comments, thank you very much. a slow and grudging rate cutting cycle is usually the best time. >> the thing that is interesting is that in each of those times there were recession fears. we had this overarching fear that the fed needed to do something even though it didn't end in a recession. this time around -- re- accelerate

>> there has been a lot of these mismatched sub cycles. there is some manufacturing going into a tailspin. we have the recession, it really didn't register fully as one or was an earnings setback. you have the two corners of marginally negative gdp and that you would get. >> this is as dovish as you would hear the chairman since december when he was extremely dovish. he just didn't indicate that

rate cuts were coming. he also said justin that the federal reserve would contemplate moderating the duration on security. >> he really gave the market everything they were looking for today. >> i think it all does go back to where the market has reached at this moment when we have gotten this broad acceptance that everything is working and everything's favorable and nvidia is not the whole story but it's kind of sky scraping in terms of its technical put -- position, it's market cap. >> look how loose financial conditions are. it will be interesting if powell has to answer the question about broad financial conditions. credit spreads are really tight which means this is not a

market that is -- you have to use it to hope inflation or jobs do what they want them to do. generative ai helps the reserve because it is inflationary. the store will evolve into alpha -- apple and alphabet.

basically somehow it is a disinflation everything. i think on a near-term basis it is hard to put on -- look at the different paths between senate conductors and hardware. eventually the trade will go into hardware which is unloved and oversold but we don't think the time is for that yet. they are still likely outside to the semi-cycle even though you have seen this move so far as though fast. the reality is we are away from integrating this into the hardware. >> where does that leave this

field position? >> the growth on this company has been in decline. 85% of the business is non-ai oriented and remember last earnings report the stock was down 4% post earnings until ceo hocked hand got on the call and said well, wait a second generative ai will grow as a percentage of our overall revenue. it will test i think maybe the resiliency of the ai story. the healthiest thing for the market would be a correction. i'm not afraid of a correction. >> the question is the markets hunger for the next play because it looks as if nvidia has gotten away from a lot of

people and dell last week absolute afterburners as soon as it was in the mix. where does that leave us? >> that will separate the men from the boys. nvidia's learning -- earnings have gone up. if you look at broad calm hey have gone up by 25% which means upside of the stock is driven by valuation re-rating. eventually earnings estimates will peter out and you will see some lost momentum and then we will look at the whole landscape and say what are the areas most exposed to the rating? >> did it surprise anyone? that's what the market is suggesting which is not as volatile as you may think. >> i could bring you back to

$100, basically. >> this brings us back to a sort of higher metabolism market in 2024. good to talk to both of you. let's head over to christina p for the biggest names moving. >> reporter: even as the company did beat its latest earnings report jpmorgan slashing its price target to seven dollars from $15 a share you can see shares trending at 1794. expect margins to remain constrained over the next year or two and that's why shares are down a whopping 30%. on the other hand burlington is at its highest level in more than a year after improved inventory levels and higher sales this also came in ahead of estimates from the ceo michael

sullivan. burlington shares are up 8%. >> all right, christina, thank you. speaking of the consumer, countdown to costco. analyst standing by with what he's expecting after the break and later how today's tech trade refers to the dock, movement of the 90s. you are watching closing bell cc. meets bold new thinking. >> at morgan stanley old-school hard work meets bold new thinking. at 88 years old we still the world with the wonder of new eyes helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you

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now. how high is the bar i guess would be the initial question. i know costco reports monthly sales. >> the bar is high in your term. i think the real upside is still that if they can membership income growing they probably have a -- coming and as that says you will -- and historically we have seen when costco is doing well it can get to two point times the market multiple. i think the expectations are high for good reason. there was consistent traffic growth, membership growth at record rates. we still like costco as a core

holding. >> i think based on forward 12 month earnings it is basically at 2.2 times the market multiple. >> i guess the s&p goes up every day. we can get well over 800. >> do you have a read on -- there has been rounds of membership price increases before and obviously this has been a well-managed retailer. do you have a read on why? >> it is in the triple cues and maybe people are looking to o after the triple cues and that

will bring some incremental buy- in into costco. it may be dragged up with some of those names that people are trying to get more funds into. >> you mentioned and pulled it out of your top five, target. >> we are trying to be more discretionary and we thought autozone and then five below still down to date. we try to be more active with the top portfolio. other names that still have plenty of upside would be walmart. they had a great traffic number in the fourth quarter. that one has done well. walmart is trading walmart u.s.

at 18 times our next new year numbers. >> with target do you just take your price target up? >> yes and i will give credit, the traffic was less negative than we had feared. >> when it comes to favorably disposed to things like walmart, autozone, five below, is it based on anything like consumer spending re-acceleration? >> we do think retail sales are bombing in the u.s. for the first quarter. we are looking for 3% growth and we think that acceleration through the year will be across retail generally but more in

smaller ticket discretionary and the fact that grossly -- grocery deflation seems to be stabilizing. we would like to have sherman williams as our home improvement name as well as home depot, smaller ticket maintenance pro oriented is another name we look at. the consumer is value focused, no doubt. >> which would be more exposed toward that bigger ticket? >> i would say across my coverage of broad lines hardlines something like a forum to core or a rose, bigger ticket things. there is a lot of replacement and it will take longer for people to come back to those bigger ticket things. >> makes sense, greg, thank you.

pippa stevens has more on archer daniels midland. >> reporter: reuters sighting three sources with knowledge of the matter. they reportedly directly relate to the accounting issues that the company said were the focus of the internal probe. mike? >> pippa, thank you. up next it is a question that so many are asking, trading like it's 1999? .com boom of the late 90s, is the recent run for real? we will discuss after the break. clinbeosg ll will be right back. in

welcome back surgeon tech stocks have drawn numerous comparisons to the.com boom of the late 90s. our next guest says today's nasdaq rally is much more grounded joining me now is nick coralis, cofounder of data check resource. i do find it interesting i think to start that debate always pops up and seems like it over anticipates this moment when things might be getting out of hand.

what you think are the most relevant benchmark to compare? >> you are right, it is interesting. the way i look at it is there is more than just price action. in the 1990s the average ipo was up 40% in the first day of trading. we also don't have a close type of homework deals. early 2000 you had a big tech company taking over traditional companies and the nasdaq is only up 41% over the last 12 months. the velocity of gains not there but you will find some folks who look at if you things such as you can overwrite what

nvidia has done in terms of the magnitude of games. also the concentration of the market and how big semiconductors are broadly within the index and it feels as if there are so many atmospheric and ancient that would suggest maybe taking some care. >> a fair point. all the usual caveats when investing apply but looking at the long-term markets, they are driven by a handful of stocks. abnormally concentrated leadership is not unusual and it tends to be in tech names. >> again you started off by saying you have strict definitional conditions for what a bubble is and i think it's worth reminding folks that really if you say some is at a bubble or a bubble is peaking

you mean it can get cut in half by value which is what happened to the nasdaq. >> our bench mark is a bubble and it happened in oil markets, with the s&p over a three-year period and the nasdaq over a one-year period. seeing a double means we are in a bubble. does it feel as if people are perhaps just over extrapolating the good news at the moment? or do you feel like mostly this is grounded in some real economic fundamentals? >> this feels like a classic mid-central market. everything else is kind of in the middle of the month. these

are all the same dynamics we have now but again not a bubble by any means kind of a normal grinding higher midcycle market. >> i have seen you write about that. it seems as if -- they say that with. you just sort of sat there and they did the work for you appreciating relatively slowly it's hard though to be honest. it's hard to feel as if the market isn't missing something when it is mostly just repricing the same news.

>> somehow that leaves the market at risk because i don't know why but >> indexing first took all and people not that would lead to volatility. it has those classic low. they go on for years. i don't feel indexing really is to blame for what we see, really more of a feature that a bug. >> there is no doubt.

it seems people are grasping at to try to find something. we will have to look for other stuff. good to talk to you. thanks a lot. up next we are tracking the biggest movement as we head into the close. >> one stock is hitting a record on a possible new weight loss drug and we have the details coming up next.

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impacted. see altered payments and deals -- meet certain financial targets that were tied to their incentives. they filed more than 30% one week ago when the companies put those executives on leave. despite today's gains the stock is still down 11% from that initial drop. mike? >> still ahead, new money, new management, steve mnuchin stepping in with a group of investors and a billion-dollar lifeline for new york community bank. see what he has to say about the company's future. closing bell will be right back. hey, is this thing hard to learn? nah, it's easy. huh. you know, i think i'm going to ride it home. good thing you chose u.s. bank to manage and grow your money. with our 24/7 support at least you're not taking chances with your finances. yeah, i think i'm gonna need a chair. oh, ohhhh.

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shares of caribbean surging after the company unveiled its new suv and crossover models. we are joined by phil. >> this was an important day for rypien -- rypien and the ceo. first of all the r 2 which has been anticipated for such a time. we finally get a look at this midsize suv.

>> customers need choices that are deeply compelling.

that price could change between now and then depending on development costs. the bottom line is this. if you are a rivian investor . you got a taste of the future and you got good news that they will save over $2 billion near- term and capital investments. and eventually they plan to build that plant but they are putting it on pause. >> a modest marcus -- market cap. in terms of the company's expectation of what they can do they don't have massive volume targets to take over the market. the key here is they want to

get to positive profit margins by the fourth quarter. that's why the decision not to spend $2 billion regarding the georgia plant is so critical. the r2 is not coming until the first half of '26. you could argue that is still a long ways off but rj and his team realize they have to move faster in terms of getting to break even as quickly as possible. >> up next your earnings set up getting numbers from costco. gap, bro, adand more. much more when we take you inside the market zone. as an independent financial advisor, my promise to you is simple.

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the market zone is sponsored by eátrade from morgan stanley. >> we are now in a closing bell market zone. leslie brings us the latest plus semi earnings are out in overtime. courtney reagan on what to expect from costco and gavin. leslie, relief trade let's say in new york and bank, what is the structure of this new deal? this is a team that has done something like this before with a different bank. >> that bank was indy mac back during the financial crisis is of course steven mnuchin the former treasury sectors -- secretary is added again. have new management, a

refreshed board. investor singling -- signaling they are ready. -- for that most of you are seeing today. up about 4% right now. credit quality has been a big concern since new york community bank recorded earnings at the end of january. for me treasury secretary mnuchin whose firm is leading net capital race says there will be problems >> we did extensive diligence on the large loan we will look at the reserves and make sure overtime and has the appropriate reserves and that can be done through a combination of capital earnings. we cut the dividend to a penny or share so we will retain almost all of our earnings and we think the asset side is very

manageable. >> mnuchin added if they need to take more reserves in the future they have the capital based now. he also said he was working earned about the bank six mosher to office and he was to multi family and he believes will be bolstered by lower interest rates over the next. mike? >> leslie, you and i spoke about the degree to which there were unique elements in terms of the nature of its portfolio and specific markets but one thing mnuchin said about why time can be your friend if you are a bank in these situations, if the rest of your business is okay you are sort of earning your way into a tigger cushion. >> take the headline from yesterday as a microcosm.

they have obtained the capital listed the investors that were there those with a track record of doing something like this in the past as mentioned in the stock price rebounded and saw quite the roller coaster ride on that i type this is and that's because when you have at worth of capital in a bank nyc b size basically gives you is kind of a chance to figure this all out and that is the lifeline we saw in the news yesterday and continues today. >> is a big difference between office buildings and -- take time to sort through it. leslie, in queue. we were taught about how strong costco getting.

>> adjusted $.23 with revenues 4.216 billion for its physical fourth quarter so this is the holiday quarter. banana republic sales those weaknesses -- that weakness i should say expected to still the firm acknowledges expectation pretty high for the quarter but uncertainty is higher than your head capture should know are down 10% over three months. more than 14% reaction results will get shortly. we also estimate costco might

put up earnings of $3.62 for its fiscal second order 1.6 in revenue remember we still get reports so i don't expect too much to change with sales numbers. shells -- field have well outperformed in the last few months so the xrt not nearly as up as much s call for moving 20% higher. you don't usually see costco shares as a consumer staple but we have seen -- seen quite a run. >> we were just talking with craig -- thank you very much. christina brought calm, what can we expect from that? >> brought calm does have exposure to legacy infrastructure. like wireless after a muted outlook he got from qualcomm. brad comstock -- 50% because

investors are focused on two main drivers, ai and software. pai -- should come from its custom silicone ships. mehta and google have all promised to spend lots more money on their ai systems and.com only counts them as customers driver is software.

>> on the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq, potential rate cuts in a few months. a second day of gains for the s&p closing up about 1% a new closing high for the s&p 500 i might add as those major averages do close in the green for a second straight day. welcome to closing bell i am morgan brennan with john ford.