quick, final trade. >> apollo management group. >> las vegas sands. >> should not? >> health care. >> joe t. >> still an owner of costco, but crowded positions. join me on "closing bell." we'll take you through the end of the week and track every movement in nvidia. "the exchange" is now. thanks very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange" on this friday afternoon. i'm dominic chu. stocks unable to sustain the gains following the stronger than expected jobs number. the dow is on pace for the worst week since october. but some believe in the 2024 stock market, where he is seeing opportunities now, that's coming up. the unclimate rate did tick

higher, the prime rate of women in the work force climbed to nearly 78%. that's still, though, lags other developed nations. the department of labor estimates it's costing more than $775 billion in economic activity each year. we'll dig into what needs to change to get more women into the workforce. plus, president biden calling for higher corm taxes and increased incentives for some americans in last night ace state of the union. this as both the house and senate vote on spending bills this week. what's in each of them, what it means for wall street, and the names poised to benefit from biden's agenda, all coming up. right now, sector-wise, it is the end of the week. with regard to some of the movement we are seeing, again, i alluded to the fact we are down for most of the major industries here, the dow industrials just about flat. the s&p 500 gets a start.

even though it's a half a percent down, it did hit a record high today. 16,107 is for the nasdaq, down about 1%. the dowindustrials down about 29 points to 38,759. with regard to what's happening elsewhere, check out the other record level we watched today. that's in bitcoin prices, currently at 68,462 and change, up nearly 1%. again, record highs here. just for reference, the new record at one point very briefly, it did cross the 70,000. bitcoin is certainly a focus. on the sector side of things for the stock market, believe it or not, it's been a decent weeks, but gains have not been powered by what you think. over the last week, the sectors -- utilities, materials,

and real estate. some of those names doing some of the heavy lifting in terms of where we saw the action, so not technology. speaking of, we are seeing a bit of a bounce today. apple shares, for sure, catching a bit up. $171.89. it's on pace right now to snap a seven-day losing streak, as investors start to look at whether or not these levels, again, trying to approach some of those october low that is we saw is enough of a catalyst for value buys and/or short covering stronger than expected jobs gains in february raising concerns that inflation could still pose a problem for the fed. nonfarm rolls on by. wage growth cooler than expected, but job growth in both december and january both revised lower. so what's the fed's next move? joining me now is diane swonk,

chief economist at kpmg, and also steve liesman. thank you for being here. why some traders maw call it a goal i locks scenario, but is it really? >> a bits of a rorschach test, dom. you can separate the numbers into those numbers that argued for the fed to cut sooner, and then for them to not cut or cut a little later. 167,000 of downward revisions, that spoke of slack in the labor market. moderating wage growth, and higher unemployment rate up 0.2. a lot of that could turn around and be the exact opposite. annual wage growth north of 4%, the unemployment rate still below 4%, so i think the fed looks at this data and says, you know what? i'm not making any calls on this

data, especially because you have this big gap. i think they wait for all of this to shake off before making up their mind and do anything else. >> diane, that's the read. that's generally what i've heard from a lot of economists out there. is this the way that the fed is looking at this data ahead of key inflation data next week? >> well, the inflation data will be important, but there's a big threshold to have the fed change its sort of game plan in terms of a june rate cut and three rate cuts for the year and that that's their signal. i think this is steady as she goes.

that bounce-back and merzant of new paychecks coming online, and what the fed continues to worried about is not wanding to overshoot, but then still looking at this and saying, you know, we're still generating a lot of demands it's graph stated in recent weekds toward shelter costs, rents, playing an important role. if you look at the will there be a scenario where the jobs data can somehow. >> in terms of inflation measures, the biggest is what

will help outside of shelter costs. very technical, but i think it's important to keep that in mind, but more importantly, we're starting to see enough tech in medical benefit people are stayinging longer in jobs they have. that along with a.d. demographics are putting pressure on scotss and pricing in the medical sector. we also see aging baby womaners are traveling more, along with those people working they were still extremely elevated.

in this week so that upward pressure is still there. is that creating too high of a floor for inflation. even though we're going to see additional declines and things like new vehicle prices, because dealer lots are not bloated what should we be focusing on? the total jobs, i will say one thing diane is right. i will say this, think about it when a rev start counting the pinning of the wrestler. it's the thing that i'm mostly interested in, if these things start to tick up for a couple

months in a row that could i want to pivot, with regards to women's international day. let's get into the -- among women in the workforce, especially the prime-aged category. in essence we're trying to get at something where people of a certain age bracket, and on this in the women workplace in that dynamic. sadly, i'm out of that prime age category. that's 25 to 54 -- >> you wouldn't know by looking at you. >> the good news is we're seeing these hit a record high.

we actually saw much of those games driven by women. that when my children were little, which was on the tail end of the 1990s boom. we went from leading the world in terms of -- to lagging the developed word world. in the economy if more of them were participating, if we had a parts raid that was commence rate, in canada or germany, we would have 5 million more women working today than they do in

part, because child care problems are included in voluntary part time. child care problems are also hitting highs in a month. that's despite the fact that the birthrate picked up in 2021, but not since then. so we still have a long way to go with the child chair crisis" today's data is really

significant. it's not going away in order to not just catch up i think we're leaving a lot of talent on the sidelines. especially when it comes to bringing women into the i think the gold standard is having the

choice to be in the economy. if couples do not want one of the spouse to say work, that's a nice choice to have. so, i would just likely make it a bit different. it was a very sort of amusing thing for me to watch. what was one of the big jobs that foreigners did? they were au pairs. i completely agree with diane, we could do a lot better.

diane wonk and steve liesman, have a nice weekend to you both. let's turn to someone who knows a thing or two about child care, economy and the afford. the golf al that kept thousands of programs afloyd expired back in september. our next guest says we are still in the early innings of the fallout from the so-called childcare cliff. joining me is steven cramer, ceo of bright horizons. but held back, because we cannot find enough affordable child

care. >> we're in told agreement with that last segment. my perspective is access to high-quality affordable child care is holding working parent bag, and ultimately holding back the economy. so, to the extend we can find ways -- and bright horizons having done it for 25 years -- to invest into child care what's the mix that's drives things higher in this country? >> the number one reason why child care is it's expensive. it is expensive to attract,

retain, train high quality teachers and practitioners. and it's tied into those delivering the magic every day in the classroom and heroes on the front lines, the teachers in the classroom. >> what does this nation need to do? >> look, i think as we look around the world and think about what are the ways in which we can solve this crisis, it really is going to come down to number of different things, but it needs to make child care more affordable for working parents.

great examples around the world focus on direct subsidies, tax incentives for families, as well as employer to be incented to provide child care for employees. you partner with a lot of companies to offer this benefit and service, what can companies do? >> yeah, we partner with 1400 employer clients across the economy, and what they are doing every day is providing access to on-site, subsidized child care for their employees, access to backup child care when an employees has a breakdown in child care, and thinking across all the life stages to ensure their employer is able to attract and retain the best talent. employers have a vested interest in this, and we're excited to continue to partner with

employers to solve what is a meaningful child care challenge. steven cramer, thank you very much. have a nice weekend, sir. >> thank you. all right. well, speaking of employers, gen z teens are back to work. indicate rogereas -- indicate r more. >> teens are working together after a big dip seen in 2020. nearly a third of teens were working in february they'ring, interestingly seeing wages rise. some are looking to see teens as more than just a paycheck. the message is this can be more than a first-time job with

opportunities to advance. >> for michigan, we're the second largest employer or the industry is. we're a $44 billion industry. management can range from 70 to $100,000, so those are careers. we need to convey those messages to the kids. >> he's offering more scheduling flexibility, even some perks for teen workers, including things like gym memberships. this is one of his 17-year-old employees. he hopes to stay in the industry after graduation. >> i normally work around 20, 24 hours. i found it easy to balance my school time with work, and they're very, very negotiable with schedules in case i need more time for school. >> it is worth noting the long-term trend is there are fewers teens working today than in the 19 0s and 1980s, but kids

have extra precious, more competitive than in the past. >> the evolution of the work force on the young side of things. we have a news alert on apple. steve kovach has more. >> apple has reinstated a develop are games accounting. epic games is the company that makes fortnite, with a long-standing battle with apple. let me explain what's going on here. apple just earlier this week removed the developer's account which epic was able to gain because of the new law in eu called the digital markets act, which went into full effect yesterday. phil shiller, who is in charge of the app store at apple, sent a letter to epic games, saying

we're going to remove your account, one, you've been blasting us publicly on social media, deriding our policies. two, you've also been in litigation with us in the united states and australia, and three, you guys purposely broke the rules, which spurred off all this litigation. today, totally reversing course. the ohm thing changed here is digital markets act went into effect. the european commission, within just an hour or so after the law went into effect, the european commission saying we're looking into apple's practices here. apple telling us and epic games saying that he apple has reinstated the account, that epic has agreed to follow all of their rules and so forth in the

app store. that's true, but also epic games agreed to do that days ago. so the only thing that's changed here is regulators started working on it. this will be a long, drawn-out battle here, though. we're seeing this tough law in the eu is having a tough effect on apple. >> steve kovach, thank you. coming up, our next guest the stronger market is due to a healthier backdrop. tom lee joins us and tells us where he still sees opportunity. president biden taking aim at corporate america last night. we'll look at the policy implications and whether congress will be able to avoid a partial government shutdown this time around. "the exchange" is back, after this. >> announcer: this is "the

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welcome to "the exchange." the s&p and the nasdaq touches record highs after the hot jobs report, both on pace for their eighth positive week in the last nine. our nest guest is tom lee, managing partner at fund strike. great to have you here. you've been right, because the market keeps hitting new highs. today's intraday action may be dis concerting for some. >> i think it's a good question, dom, because the market is extended in a mature rally.

i think we should be giving this market the benefit of the doubt. today stocks are wobbling. not a surprise there's some profit taking. i'm probably saying one eyebrow is raised, because we're selling off on good news, but with margin debt where it is, and i think the earnings back drop being so strong, i think it's good for equities. what exactly is going to drive that. might be the idea of people paying more for that dollars earnings expected, multiple expansion, so to speak. what is the big tailwind you see coming up? >> it's really all three. there is an up side to earnings, earnings beat by 7%, so you're already one quarter in. well, that means there could be $10 to $15 for up side just on this year's earnings alone.

risk premium, if the fed starts cutting and the economy is resilient, the p/e is only 15 times ex-faang. so i don't think investorsare necessarily -- i know the market is technically overbought, but technical strategies say you don't want to -- strong markets stay strong. >> tom, you mentioned the idea that leverage isn't what it used to be at points in the past. does that take a massive market decline off the table? if we did get a decline, how big in your mind could it be? >> dom, for now, i think it does mitigate down side. when leverage is slow, like margin debt or nyse, it means

investors aren't long, yet the backdrop is improving, so they have toees these chances to get long, but at the same time we expect an air pocket in the first half, something like 7% or more. there's just so many top callers, that's why there's more gas in the tank. the favorite part of the market for you, given this valuation? >> to me, we know that technology and faang, including nvidia are works, and the miners and bitcoin, because they are correlated trades. the second thing that seems to be working are things related an ozempic and reducing weight loss because of the productivity benefit to workers.

to me the most interesting is small caps. they're trading at 44% to price. so i think that's a sleeper story this year. >> tom lee, thank you very much. have a nice weekend, tom. >> thanks, you too. this weekend marks one year since the collapse of silicon valley bank, and what some of the bank's former clients are saying and where the opportunities are still. hey, do you have a second? they're all expecting more. more efficiency. more benefits. more growth. when you realize you can give your people everything, and more. thank you very much. [applause] ask, "now what?" here's what. you go with prudential to protect, empower and grow. with everything you need to deliver, you guessed it... more. one more thing... who's your rock? learn more at prudential.com

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your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's age renew formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond. welcome back to "the exchange." i'm tyler mathisen with your news update. an aid ship will be heading to gaza as a test mission for a new humanitarian aid sea corridor. the new comes as president joe biden said the u.s. military will build a temporary pier in gaza along the med trainia, as the blockade and fighting made

it nearly impossible. the accomplice cal group no label said it will name a presidential ticket soon. no labels says a formally process with potential candidates will likely begin next week. france will use artificial intelligence for surveillance. all services will be allowed to use the technology. france, the first european country to legalize the use of a.i. intelligence. dom, back to you. >> tyler, thank you so much. coming up on the show, corporate taxes and consumer costs top of the white house agenda. we'll get a trader's take on the stocks that could benefit on thigh buy three buys and a bail. so you know all you need for recovery.

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welcome back to "the exchange." president biden's state of the union speech sandwiched between two congressional votes on a spending bill that would avoid a government shutdown. house passed it on wednesday. senate is set to vote on it today. emily wilkins has the latest

from d.c., and then we discuss the impacts of last night's address. emily, we begin with you. >> reporter: after months of action, the senate it finally poised to pass a package to fund the government for the remainder of the fiscal year. they just took a procedural motion vote, and they're on track to avoid that partial government shutdown otherwise set to start tonight at midnight. we don't know when the final vote will be, but the package includes several foreign policy measures like preventing sale of oil in the strategic reserve to china, and tracking and review the foreign ownership of forest land and farmland. the national institute of standards and technology will have its budget cut of 10% from

last fiscal year, even as the biden administration has tasked it with developing standards for a.i., managing risks with the new technology and helping to identify what types of a.i. could be harmful. even if lawmakers do avoid a shutdown today, the biggest challenge is yet to come. the next tranche is due march 22nd. there will be more challenge to find agreement, and it includes several critical departments like the department of defense. >> emily wilkins, thank you very much. let's learn to-- turn to libby cantrell. as you were watching last night, what stood out to you as the key focal point or message that the president was trying to get across, not just to congress, but to the american people.

>> in some ways, from a policy perspective, there was a rehashing of many of the policies that president biden ran on in 2020, so i'm not sure there's that much that's new. he did reinforce a few things, though, that i think will be potential important to the market. he leaned into this idea of increasing the corporate tax rate from 21 march to 28%. he also supported this idea of quadrupling the buyback tax, the surcharge from 1% to 4%, among some other tax changes, including a 25% wealth tax for those who have $100 million more of assets. dom, however, and this is a big however, something we are reinforcing to our clients, is so much of his ability to get this done in 2025 will really depend on whether he as a cooperative congress. does he have democratic senate

in and a democratic house? i think that's a real open question, given the pretty different math for democrats, it looks like it may be difficult to keep the senate. so we're just guiding our clined. you take this with a big grain of salts, but probably going to be difficult to translate into policy, even if he were to win. that's downballot stuff, the idea you need to see other elections go the way that you need it to go, whether you're a republican or a democrat. what what is the handy capping process you're going through right now on how you're telling people how the down ballot elections could play out andthe economic effects on any agenda that any president would want to lay out. >> its think it's focused around

the election. that might be more interesting. we would argue that actually, for this election cycle in particular, given the dynamics in both the senate and the dynamics in the house, which republicans control by a very slim margin, they're basically both up for grabs. so again, just given the challenging map of seats in states up for reelection in the senate, democrats, it looks like the odds favor democrats for losing the senate, but they may have a higher chance of taking back the house, in which case this is the important punch line here. for all of either candidates, whenever they talk about fiscal policy and what they want to do in 2025, just remember they have a split congress, and they're going to be able to do much, much less than what they might

be suggesting on the campaign trail. >> it sounds like we talk about these issues, this idea that gridlock is good for wall street in some ways. are you forecasting more of a gridlock type of situation, no matter who wins the white house? >> actually, the data would corroborate that, dom. if you look at just the s&p, its performance since the 1950s, the stock market actually performs better typically under divided government or a split congress. so that has again verified by data. i think it's just too early to tell at this point. of course, we're just in march, it's unbelievable. it feels like the general election campaign has already been going on r several months. in a usual cycle, we would just be getting to the primary process, but for all intents and

purposes, we already know the candidates and already pivoting to prognostication, but we're telling clients it's still early. it's just too difficult to guest and handicap at this point whether we'll see a split congress or a red wave, or even though it seems less likely, a democratic wave. >> libby, thank you very much. we'll see you soon. >> thanks, dom. now that the biden road map has been laid out which stocks could be benefit? they have three became to buy and one to avoid. our trader of report is chris crisanti. always great to get your thoughts here, chris. what will this mean for voters this cycle? inflation. promising to bring it down is president biden, a key part of

sectors like food and staples. where do you see the opportunity to play that battle. >> sure, dom. first of all, it's always to be good to be with you. on inflation, the important thing is it's down, but boy, the president is getting tagged with it, and it's not gone. so especially in the grocery store. so, what we are looking for is a company that can sell smaller items. the mine inflation a lot more than in you're buying, say, a candy bar. say we like hershey's. it's suffering right now. cocoa prices are at record highs, on hershey's is at a rod low. so we think they will moderate eventually, and you'll get a double tailwind of the profits increasing, because the raw ingredient costs are going down,

and -- we really like hershey's hear as a way to take advantage of the lingering inflation we still see at the checkout. next up, let's turn our attention to another key point, big pharma. president biden is looking to expand medicare price negotiation for prescription costs and cap the costs. bris toll meyers squibb already negotiating eloquis. you like bmy and another? >> i like bmy and pfizer. it's like deja vu all over again, to quote yogi barra. price controls never get the support they need to get in congress in order to pass. so by midyear, they start to get

a bid, and they end up being pretty good stocks by the end of the year. this is a particularly strong year, i think, because these stocks have suffered because so much capital has been sucked out to the mag 7, and have left stocks like pfizer and bristol-myers with single-digit multiples i think this is a real good risk and i would take advantage. for the last buy here, clean energy and electric vehicles, touting investment in battery technology, charging infrastructure. chris, you like lithium and specifically albemarle? >> i like it. every so often, dom, just like oil four years ago -- remember when it went negative for a day?

lithium prices are down, and now people think there will never be another ev sold in the united states. obviously the truth is somewhere in between. we think evs are eventually the wave of the future. they're catching on much quicker in china and europe. albemarle would be akin to buying energy stocks four years ago, and it ended up being the best performs sector for two years after that. chris, let's talk about the bail. home builders for you chris, you're bearish, why? >> now, you have to put it in context, dom. on this show two years ago, i really liked they guys. it was because interest rates were starting to come up, the

stocks had gone down 50, 60, even some 70%. i saw it as a buys opportunity. we purchased them. we are now getting out of them. the reason is they have gone way, way up. almost tripled in value. i think the president's proposal of a tax credit for renewed home buyers looks good on paper, but it will be dead on arrival in a republican congress. $10,000 isn't that much compared to the average cost of a home. i'm taking profits in a group that has done terrific. who would have thought home builders would have been a world beater in that environment? >> thank you very much, chris. chris grisanti. next on the show, there were

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welcome back to the exchange. at the high of the session, the dow was up 179 and at the low down 86. currently did you know 49 to 50 points. the s & p is the real lagert so far today, just about 4.09%. it has been a your since the collapse of silicon valley bank and while we may not feel it uh-uh # cutely on the east coast, it is a very big deal in the west coast. a look amat in street and the tech industry next. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪)

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tech check is sponsored by comcast business, powering possibilities. >> welcome back to the exchange. it has been a year since the svb collapse, the biggest bust since the financial crisis and the end of an institution that was integral to silicon valley. deirdre bosa is joining us now and they are still foaling the pinch after the collapse. >> after the collapse, you did see the two big banks but that is not an option for many medium and small businesses. their profile is considered too risky or they may need specialized services, what svb provides. the role still has not been filled. i sat down with parker conrad

and his start p was at the center of the storm because they provided pay roll for thousands of companies not just within tech. hoar is how he described the unique value proposition to start ups and main street small businesses. >> i tell you the think that was unique about silicon valley bank for us which is why we started working with them. when ripply was just getting started, just working out of my basement, we needed to get a set of very specialized banking relationships to do what we wanted to do, to move money on behalf of clients for pay roll. and at the time most banks would never work with a company like ours. >> svb was one stop shop for many start up small businesses and even their employees providing mortgages or personal loans. svb tock equity stakes in the companies and partnered with vcs.

the concern that exists one year later is that the next generation of entrepreneurs are not getting funded in the new landscape. that will have greater implications down the road the so-called innovation economy. >> all right, deirdre bosa with the tech check on svb. we will see you later on. before we go today, we want to check on the shares of nov nor. the fda has approved wegovey for cardiovascular risk reduction and people with over weight or obesity and established cardiovascular disease. nov norshares pairing the losses, down on the day but keep an eye on nov nordisk. have a great day and we will see you on monday. the first law of thermodynamics states that energy cannot be created or destroyed.

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good afternoon, everyone. welcome to power lunch. i'm tither mathisen, glad you could join us. stocks have turned lower this afternoon as markets digest the jobs report. 270,000 jobs added in february, that's more than expected. wages ticked up less than forecast and unemployment rate jumped to 3.9%. >> looking at the weekly market numbers, all finishing in the red. bitcoin looking to close out a strong week with a new record crossing 70,00