the heels of oracle reporting, we get adobe reporting later in the week. those are two big software names that report offcycle and we're going to hear from the ceo of adobe here on "overtime." >> we get a number of retailers, as well. some more read into the consumer. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime," "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. ready to rotate. a couple of recent high flyers losing steam today. and some otherwise beaten down names getting a boost. what does the shift say about where the market is heading? plus, an enemy of the people? that's what former president donald trump called facebook this morning. the effect that is having on the social media giant. and what it could mean for the future of tiktok here in the u.s. and later, we've got a big trade alert for you. one of our traders is hitting the buy button on this beaten down bank. we'll get their thoughts why later in the show.

i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we begin with what might be a sign that the air is coming out of what have been some of the year's most popular trades. lilly and nvidia boasting big drops today. nvidia has now fallen nearly 12% from the record high hit friday morning. japan's nikkei nosediving, falling to its lowest in over two weeks. even the red hot industrials trending lower. meantime, recent laggards catching a bit of a bid today, with alphabet and apple notching gains. so, have markets lost faith in this year's high flyers? is this the start of a rotation which some might call healthy at this point, guy. >> could be. and tim has correctly pointed out that as the semis go, the market's going to go. let's try to drill down there quickly. nvidia, on friday, massive reversal, we talked about it on the show. traded two timesish, 2 1/2 times normal volume. huge rotation lower. $230 billion of market cap taken off in a single day is

significant when there only 50 or so companies that big in the first place. so, yes, technically, you have to pay attention. taiwan semi, the next biggest holding in the smh, huge double top, pull up a chart and you'll see that clear as day. that's now close to 32% of that etf. if you believe in technicals, and if you believe that friday was a day, it stands to reason that the smh is probably going to reverse and look at levels for prior highs of 160 or so. if that's, in fact, the case, almost by definition, the broader market has to follow. >> we led with the move in nvidia, it being a key reversal on friday. and this is actually just an extension of what was going on on friday. so, the slide is continuing. >> well, we talked about friday, i think carter talked about it, but depending on what books you read, this was a textbook reversal. you could say outside reversal. you could say whatever you want to say. if you look at the semis guy's referring to, from that intraday high on friday, down a little over 8% today.

>> nvidia, a little bit more. yet, they're still up 28% this year and outperformed the s&p by over 20% during that time. even in the last -- it feels like last six weeks. if you look at the vix overall, it's been creeping higher. it's still relatively low. you can make an argument there's still a lot of complacency out there. a vix that only closed up 3% today, but we are still at levels that are probably three, you know, three-month highs or so. if you look at the dynamics in a place like japan, there are things afoot in currency land. we've been waiting for the yen to finally strengthen. that might be good, it might be a sipegn of inflation and normalizing policy in japan. not great for the exporters. i think japan is a market you want to be long in. a market i'm overweight, so, you have a dynamic with japan that the good stuff has been fantastic, but that i think some of the exporters are concerned on the weaker dollar. rates have been kind of sideways. powell was kind of in line last

week. we've got a fed a couple weeks away. i think markets needed to catch their breath. >> and cpi tomorrow. >> right. if we see a really hot number, then some of the real high flyers will sell down on that. i actually thought over the weekend, i was thinking, wow, nvidia could really get crushed today, and it did. this isn't great, for sure, but i think it could have been down a lot more, that wouldn't have been so surprising. so, you know, we have a couple of things that point to, oracle tonight, that's good for nvidia, for dell, the amd interview with jon and lisa, talking about pcs. but i do think it will be an excuse tomorrow for the market, either way. hot, it will go down, and cold, i think we'll see some bids. >> it's funny. there's been a lot of analogs, we've heard them all, about how this period reminds us of 2000 and really some of the sp speculative buying we saw there. and all the differences about the xeefs that are leading the way there, and we can go on and on. when i listened to lisa just now

on the network, and guy's said it probably 100 times over the last, you know, five or so years, this is one of the best ceos that exists on the planet. just the sort of -- soberness when things are really good. soberness when things are bad, how she's plailaid out how the company is competing. and so, you listen to her and you say to yourself, you know, i kind of -- i like that stewardship. i also can say the same thing about jensen huang, but that stock has gained a trillion dollars in market cap in two months. and that gets me back to that bubble conversation. we've never seen such a thing happen in our careers. even for a company that's amazingly profitable, that trades at a reasonable valuation, that is leading all its peers. so, those sorts of push and pulls are the thing we're going to see play out in the market right now. you talk about the reversal on friday, that is an emotional thing. a lot of investors, traders, they piled on that. and i was surprised we didn't

have more of a follow-through today, that we didn't see nvidia down, you know, 5% or something like that, so, there's still buyers in these sorts of names, you know -- taking some of the froth out, you know, no matter how bullish you are, whether it's another week or a year or ten years, that would be a good thing, because we all know this, when you have these sorts of bubbles, again, bubble doesn't mean it's about to pop or really negative thing, you know, it's not a great foundation to build an investment thesis on. >> is amd also in a bubble? or is it in a bubble because of the gain in market cap, because if you look at a forward p ebay sis, nvidia is actual ly cheape. >> for me, what you want in the near term versus the longlong-t. guy mentioned this, it was not a great quarter. it was not a great guide. the stock was down. how much has that stock rallied on the heels of everything else that's been going on in the sector? so, that, to me, speaks of a bubble environment.

>> you own it still, nvidia. >> i do, yeah. >> you think it's bubbly or -- >> it is. it's both. i do think that this story is real, that, you know, we always talk about the picks and shovels. that's going to be the case for awhile. but to your point, i would be fine with a selloff. i do think it's healthy. that's why i was sort of surprised we didn't see a much more aggressive selloff today. but i'm long something like dell, which is a lot cheaper, now, granted, doesn't have the margins that nvidia does, but i think that's a different way to play it and lisa's comments about pc, you know, the a.i. pcs, i think is a good one for them. >> i think about a nasdaq that's done almost nothing over a month. and if you think about outside of the semis that are in the nasdaq, but megacap tech, we spend a lot of time talking about the names that have been the haves and have nots, and apple and google did rally today. i look at the broader market, and i continue to see banks doing fine. i continue to deretail doing

fine, i continue to see indus industrials reaching all-time highs. so, the broadening of the market is sneaky, because a lot of these names were so beaten up, but seeing froth come out of nvidia, and two days, i mean, look, we're 30% above where they were before they reported earnings. we're still above after a 13% move, where it closed last tuesday, so, i mean -- it's definitely a dynamic where i think we've got a dynamic here that is -- let's watch this play out. i -- the broader market in a benign inflationary environment, where the fed is, where the margins have proven so far in earnings season, to me is a signal that some of these stocks are going to continue to move higher in the absence of any major change in global geopolitics. i think the fed is still a risk, although i think we've derisked the fed, so, i think there's certainly surprises out there, because that's the stuff we

don't see, it's always there, but for the stocks that are rallying, and the stocks that have underperformed for the previous year, i like -- i like the move we've seen. >> yeah, i mean -- surprisingly, maybe not surprisingly to many, equal weight has outperformed broad-based s&p 500 by 200 basis points in the past month. the question is, you know, if you're going to pull the money out of the lillies of the world, the nvidias of the world, where would you put it? >> and is it enough to continue to drive? >> right. >> and i think i know the answer, but clearly i don't, and where would you put it? well, i mean, again, i'll say it over and over again, i think there's a place for energy in this world. i think some of these material stocks and mining stocks can do well in this environment. but quickly, just to wrap some math around bubbles and where -- so, amd trades at ten times next year's revenue. okay, that's fine, it is expensive on the pe. by comparison, and this is my problem with nvidia, on a pe multiple, it's actually very

reasonable, cheaper than amd. it's the price to revenue, price to sales that should scare people. at some point, those 77% margins they're enjoying are going to work their way down, which is going to hurt their earnings, which theoretically should make everything come back down to some normalcy. so, trading at close to 20 times revenue, historically, is probably twice as expensive as it should be. >> do we feel like the lilly and novo, do they also fall into this category of -- >> yes. >> some sort of bubble? >> yeah, because we're talking about this brave new world, we're talking about the brave new world of an addressable market in weight loss, obesity drugs, and obviously, most importantly, cutting to the core of diseases that have been -- you know, there's an enormous impact in terms of what they're doing to society. therefore, we're speculating as to what it's going to do. remember what we were doing to hersheys and to some of the, you know, the junk food stuff. sorry, hersheys. let me retoo do that. snack food, carbonated soft drinks. when you think about novo and

lilly, amd and nvidia, we're speculating on a brave new world. i would say the same thing about lilly. i mean, their margins are extraordinary right now, but i believe there's competition coming. >> i agree that -- it's a momentum trade, right, as money is, like, you know, copping off the sidelines, think, i've got to get into this, to the extent that it's cooled, now, i think it's the same thing. i don't even know how much -- how much people look at the independently different stories of a.i. and glp-1s, which are totally different stories. >> bitcoin also? >> look at the correlations. i mean, this is some -- everyone is crowding into the same stuff, and it's interesting that if the kind of spot bitcoin etf did not kind of take over the narrative over the last few months or so, i'm not sure bitcoin, for the reasons that the fed's getting closer to easing, like, fine, those are the reasons why bitcoin may be, you know, like, rallies, but i think michael

sailor this morning, i thought he was probably the most cogent i've heard an argument about why to own bitcoin or why you have over the last year, to give it not as digital property, a store value, which -- we've talked about that 100 times. folks that want to talk about, is it currency? no one is using it as currency. so, to me, i think it all fits in the same mania. and i think we are in a mania category. you could make great arguments why there is long-term value, but a lot of these things seem crowded and euphoric. >> i thought you were going to say, the argument he made to invest in microstrategy when there are bitcoin etfs out there and they are leveraged, because they can borrow it. .62%, their offering, and be super leveraged in that way. >> well, proxy ways were a ways to get exposure to bitcoin and block chain. i'm not sure why you wouldn't want to own the pure. i guess i look at bitcoin and

gold a little differently. remember, gold is also breaking out to all-time highs and it's taken awhile for gold to do it. but i think this is about geopolitics, i think it's sniffing out a u.s. government that has a huge deficit. i think rates have upward pressure from that, leaving aside, obviously, the economy. so -- not the same brush i want to paint it with, but i think there is fervor out there. boeing dropping 3% on reports that the justice department opened a criminal investigation to january's midair blowout. also today, roughly 50 passengers aboard a boeing plane were injured following a strong movement mid flight. the latest on the string of operational issues involving boeing jets. the stock is down 26% this year. for more on all of this, we're joined by burt steuben. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me on. >> in terms of the new criminal probe, how do you look at the worst case scenario in terms of the financial cost to boeing? >> yeah, i think if you look at,

you know, what happened in 2021, which was $2.5 billion total settlement, which was broken down, really, as $1.7 billion to customers, and then about $600 million to -- or $500 million to the families of victims from the max-8 crashes, and $244 million in criminal penalties. and so, you know, it's -- what is it going to be this time? hard to handicap, but the stock was down 3%, as you mentioned, and that would indicate a $4 billion move in market cap, and we don't think the, you know, the net present value, any potential criminal penalty would be that high. so, i think what people are really looking at is, you know, what does this do to production? there's obviously been a lot of negative headlines on the boeing side recently. everyone's been focused on this 38 maxes per month number, which is where they're actually restricted to right now by the faa. so, i think it's really what's happening is, you look at what happened to some of the united aircraft last week, you're looking at faa comments in

transportation comments, and piling up to a degree where i think people are pushing out production expectations, more so than the criminal penalty. >> the 2021 agreement that you referred to is a deferred prosecution agreement, in which case, in the amount of time they have to sort of be in good behavior. if this falls into the of violating period, are they back on the hook for more criminal prosecutions relating to crashes? >> i don't think so. i think this will be centered around the max-9, and interestingly, that dpa was set to expire two days after this accident happened, so it's unfortunate timing for boeing, but -- you know, i think, one, this is going to take a period of time to actually be resolved, so, i wouldn't look for anything sort of in the near term, and two, it's going to be increasingly difficult from boeing's perspective to actually handicap how much money they would owe on their criminal penalties, if there are penalties. >> we're approaching the october

lows. boeing's a company that did $22 billion in the quarter, ish, half of which is commercial air, i get it, but we talk about this a lot, defense is another $7 billion of that, and then you have global services and support is -- rounds the entire thing out. at these levels, and given the backlog they have, it seems as if you're getting a lot of this company, not for free, but at a significant discount. can you speak to that? >> yeah, i think you're spot-on. we look at the market structure and the reality is, there's two aircraft producers, there's boeing and airbus. there's comack, but aways away from seeing the penetration in the market. so, what you're seeing is, boeing is not really losing orders. they're backlogged at the first quarter. the fourth quarter was the highest it's ever been. and american placed a tremendous order for max-10s last week. if you are adding that together, you've got an all-time high backlog. and i think every day that goes by, where something significant does not happen, that will start

to erode. and the way we value the company is on an enterprise value to backlog basis. historically, around 40 -- right now, sub 33%. >> burt, it's tim. so, i agree with that i'm long boeing. it's been a frustrating roller coaster. after a 50% move off that market inflection, we're right back there. but what do you do in terms of discount rate? you're not necessarily doing this on dcf, but there are dynamics for the stock that certainly effect the multiple. and how would you assess that approach right now versus where we were one year ago for you? >> yeah, i mean, that's a good question. i mean, yeah, i think it's very difficult to do a dcf, we don't really look at it that way, we look at it on an ev to backlog basis or free cash flow multiple ba basis. management stood by their target of getting to $10 billion of free cash and the 25 to 6 time frame. my view, that's probably moving to 26 sort of plus, and that's where the market is. if you look at a company that

even in a year as tough as the one we're going through is going to do something near $5 billion in free cash, and then once we start to see production normalize, which, you know, is months, a couple quarters away, sort of from starting, you should start to see that discount rate that's ultimately baked into it go down. but yeah, certainly gone up, and that's been part of it, not just rates going up, but the risk around boeing going up, but if you look at the cross specs and the market structure and their orders, you know, there's certainly a lot of value to extract if you believe some of the near-term headwinds start to fade. >> burt, thank you. >> thank you. >> guy, it sounds like you think maybe there could be value here. >> well, i think the low back in october if i'm not mistaken was around 180, so, listen, they can continue to push this. we had a similar conversation with apple. you're not looking for a place to sell the stock now. you're trying to figure out where to buy it. if i gets down to 180, you buy with both hands. >> it's hard to hear, though, an analyst say it's hard to figure out how much they'll be on the

hook for, that you have no idea, and production should restart and return back to normal, maybe within this year -- >> i think he has to address that as a risk, but the criminal probe dynamics, i don't think, are material. this isn't like a john soond johnson story. this is -- at least, to this point. and unless -- what we're learning about boeing in terms of production and quality control is alarming. and especially with spirit, and with the alaska air, journal has a really interesting article, how that plane sat on, you know, the conveyor belt, or whereve planes sit, on three weeks, before the right team came to look at it and obviously that stuff wasn't fixed. what we learned about the spirit deal, it's about bringing back in all manufacturing, which is slowly been put off to suppliers, and that needs to continue to change. but i think it's an opportunity here, it's been frustrating. but this is not the time to sell. coming up, oracle earnings are out. shares of the company on the

move. the details and the numbers next. and bitcoin notching a new record high. surpassing $72,000 for the first time ever. will crypto just keep climbing? we'll debate that when "fast money" returns. this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc. you always got your mind on the green. not you. you! your business bank account with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy. (♪♪) that's how you business differently. intuit quickbooks. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at

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welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on oracle. the cloud giant jumping after hours on an eps beat. the conference call is under way. steve kovaches has the latest. >> liking what they're hearing so far in this call. mixed results for oracle's third quarter, but some commentary on their a.i. plans appear to be what's sending shares higher. eps, a beat with $1.41 adjusted versus expectations of $1.38. revenue, a slight miss, $13.28 billion versus $13.3 billion expected. the ceo saying in the earnings release, there were new cloud in infrastructure clients bringing remaning performance obligations soaring 29% to $80 billion. that's a record for the company. less than half of those obligations will come in over

the next four quarters. now, no formal guidance, but the statement says to expect more of those large contracts to come in. also noting demand surpasses supply. >> thank you, steve. opening data centers opening very rapidly. so, they can't possibly get their hands around it right now. >> look. you can make a compelling case on -- the last two quarters have been disasters, each time the stock, i think, traded, held $100, it happened to be a support level. here we are now. so, valuation, you can make a case. cloud revenue grows 25% year over year, good for them. problem is the stock now, you're going to chase it at 125, going to wait for it to back and fill which it typically does. as you remember, oracle was one of the os, the only o in my hope trade back in the day. and i still like the name. >> how many years back was that? >> three? >> at least three. >> at least three. >> i feel like it was during the

pandemic, because in the pandemic, you had hope. >> yeah. >> i prefer his clam postpandemic. >> don't chase here. i don't think. >> it seems kind of similar commentary to what we heard from dell. dell was not trading up that much, right, on the actual result that they printed and when they started talking a little bit, it started going up 5% a clip. so, i think a lot of these ceos know, if the current environment wasn't as good as one might expect, there are things you can see -- and they are seeing this demand, i'll sure they are. whether it's going to materialize, you know, in six months from now, 12 months from now, is another story. but to guy's point on a valuation basis, expectations, i think, was the key one, how low they were coming into print, but i wouldn't chase it, either. >> that remaining performance obligation, that jumped, and the guide well, well, well above the street. that's huge. so, i mean, this -- up $10 doesn't seem that crazy to me, given what a giant number this

is. now, you probably think, okay, it's double ordering, that kind of thing, which it might be, if you're talking about -- we don't know if half of some portion of them won't be fulfilled within the next year. so, i don't know, but that's impressive. that is a gigantic number. >> is this an a.i. catchup trade -- >> oracle? yeah, i think it is. i think, if you look at the rest of the sector and you look at their oci business, it's -- there's a lot of platforms. i think, as guy pointed out, as we all know, oracle's disappointed the last couple quarters. the mean reversion here in terms of the underlying soft, i like it here. >> and they do have microsoft partnership. there's a lot more "fast money" to come, here's what's coming up next. bitcoin setting records. the crypto hitting a fresh record high, and now bigger in market cap than one tech heavyweight. we'll tell you who it just passed and where it might be going next. plus, a social strife.

former president donald trump sounding off, as a potential tiktok ban comes into focus. and its shares of meta feeling the pain. why he's calling facebook the enemy of the people. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcía's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, -hey, john reese, jr. -how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister's told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. [phone: starting route.] technology helps us navigate to work. [phone: go straight.] but, to navigate the complexities of modern work... [phone: turn left.] ...you need more than technology. you need cdw. [phone: you have arrived.]

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks closing out mixed to start the week. the dow eeking out a gain. the nasdaq seeing the biggest losses. shares of pdd getting a bump today. analysts at jeffries upgrading the stock to a buy. bitcoin, meantime, notching another record high. the crypto surging to $72,000 for the first time ever. bitcoin is up 70% this year. and its market cap is now larger than meta's. wow. 70% this year. in all the bitcoin ancillary stocks are also moving -- >> m booing. >> yeah. are you nervous about coinbase? >> not here. this is a stock to be clear, i'm not protecting myself underneath it with puts, the vol on this

thing is way too high, but it's also not something -- it's kind of -- i don't think you're supposed to have a disproportionate part of your assets. this stock should be a lot higher, relative to what's going on overall in both the bitcoin and the gcrypto space, based upn regulatory backdrop and the size of the market. >> we hit this earlier. the spot bitcoin etf thing changes the game. it gives a level -- it's a rubber stamp that did not exist in the last two big retail cycles. and what's clear is that people feel very comfortable buying this risk asset that they deem to be speculative. on the nasdaq, you can buy s speculative stocks that go to zero, lots of stocks have known bears who are all over them every day on tv or something like that, trying to, you know, kind of articulate a story, whatever. this one's still here. and it's still going, and it's got some decent-sized backers.

to me, you can look at it that way, as, like, a portion of your position. i wouldn't be buying it here, but there are opportunities to buy this -- >> look, if the maturity of bitcoin and now ethereum before your eyes is what you've seen, why wouldn't you be rlooking at other assets in the space? i realize a lot of it isis garbage, but -- it's not just about bitcoin and ethereum. and there's no question there's other folks digging around in the digital world. coming up, the enemy of the people. the harsh words former president donald trump had for facebook, as 0 potential tiktok ban bill makes its way towards a vote. more on that next. plus, is new york community bank finally a buy? after a huge drop over the last few months, one of our traders sees an opportunity to get in. why they have changed their tune. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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but the thing i don't like is that, without tiktok, you could make facebook bigger, and i consider facebook to be an enemy of the people, along with a lot of the media.

i think facebook has been very bad for our country, especially when it comes to elections. >> that was former president donald trump on "squawk box" this morning, saying that banning tiktok in the u.s. could empower meta's facebook platform. shares of meta down 4.5% after those comments. that's back-to-back losses for meta, which was also the day's biggest loser in the nasdaq 100. dan, you were surprised by the magnitude of the drop. why? >> why would you sell the stock if you've enjoyed these gains based on that comment? you know, again, i think what we're talking about is not a ban of tiktok, it's a die vestment, so, that is probably not going to effect, you know, facebook, you know, that much anyway, i mean, if anything, it might make tiktok -- i don't know. yes, i'm surprised it was down 4% today. >> right. when the bill passed, 50-0, in the house, there was not much of a reaction in shares of meta, and reaction in shares of snap, which was actually up on that. >> well, i agree with dan, i

think that if -- i mean, if they shut it down, yeah, that's huge. and meta has been up a few times on that over the last year, that's been part of what's driving it, but it was just part of this huge momentum, nvidia, lilly, i mean, and it's -- >> take profits from the winners. >> yeah. >> i'm not surprised. i mean, look, what does facebook have, a third of the global population on the platform? so, even if former president trump can get the entirety of the united states to sort of deplatform, or just -- it's not going to make that big of a dent. that's not going to happen. but i understand the sort of sell first, ask questions later, especially given the run and the environment we're in. >> how is your myspace page? >> you would know. you stalk it all the time. i have an application that can see that. >> why wouldn't i? i think the dynamics here, at least around engagement and ad targeting are great, i mean, they're benefits from a.i. right now. they're in a position to actually see notable change, i think, in their core business,

so, as people have been trying to assess the big picture over this, it does seem as if meta is kind of in there doing it now. i think that part of -- part of this move in meta, i don't know the percentage, but i believe it's 25% of this move, people sold first and asked questions later with the cyclicality of the ad space. people looked at a lot of media companies and they sold the biggest one in the world which is facebook. >> mel, you asked a great question of trump this morning, and you asked about some of the trade policies and some of the stuff with china and how that might effect u.s. multinationals trying to operate there. and this comes back to this conversation, trying to put your finger on the scales of this sort of thing. meta was a huge beneficiary of all the advertising by temu and shein. the so, i think your point was, is that there will be a tit for tat if we want to dial up this sort of rhetoric. and it's very different if you think about what we're talking about with chips and when you're talking about propaganda and the

like here. this is not something that goes away any time soon, even if tiktok is divested. >> let's bring in the lead tech analyst over at jeffries. brent is one of the biggest meta bulls on the street. brent, great to have you with us. obviously some of the move is, you know, this rotation out of some of the stocks that have done very nicely on the nasdaq 100, but i'm wondering if you believe part of it is this notion that, you know, in a trump presidency, facebook, meta, will have a target on its back, and that could hurt it in many different ways, including one that dan has alluded to, and that is, you know, less advertising from some of the biggest advertisers out there currently. >> it's headline risk. this isn't fundamental risk. and i think when the president says it's an enemy of the people, ah, yep, if you overuse a product too much, it's an enemy, whatever you do, if you overdo one thing. the reality is, the economic value to all these small

businesses advertising is off the charts. the targeting is better than anybodany platform. all the advertisers we have spoke to in the last six months have seen budgets go from google to meta because of the quality of the targeting and the quality of the return. so, if you are that small, creative design business in california, and you're trying to generate eight jobs, and you're getting better targeting and you're selling more, you're creating more economic outcome for these people. and so, i don't agree with this view that it's the enemy, the reverse has happened for small businesses. small businesses view this platform as a way to get their word out. and i see it completely differently, so, from what we can see, advertisers are continuing to be committed, because they are using the best. that's not going to change based on a comment that was made today. is there a headline risk and political risk? absolutely. but ultimately, i think that the

value created is so great for these small businesses, it's hard to, like, turn down the facts and if you talk to any advertiser, they'll tell you in the last six months that rois off the charts for meta. so, i see it differently. >> thank you for being on, i'm a fellow meta bull, it's my biggest position, so, you have this $550 price target. how do you get there? what's the multiple, what's the earnings that you're using? >> yeah, i mean, meta right now is one of the lowest multiple names in our coverage universe, so, if you look at the multiple you have to use, you don't even have to shoot for a big multiple to get there, trading in a low teen ebitda multiple. it's one of the cheapest names out there. you have accelerating growth, you have advertisers saying it's the best roi and more advertisers are spending there. we think this year they could pick up 40% to 50% of the incremental ad spend. you look at the discipline, every time zuck gets on, he

says, we have 3 billion people on the planet that touch this app every day and we're going to grow with discipline. and every time he says that, stock keeps going higher. i mean, it's a new religion for him, that he can grow without having to have all these crazy metaverse things hanging off of the rafters. and so, how we get there is -- you continue to see accelerating growth over the peers, you see market share gains against google, you see overall continued focus on margin, and the quality of the experience is there, like, it's -- at a low teen ebitda multiple, stock's going higher. >> great to have you with us. thank you. >> thank you. >> headline risk. does headline risk remain contained in your view? >> i think headline risk is there. the other risk -- if you think, as i do, and i'm not suggesting i'm right, but the unemployment rate in this country is going to start to tick up in a pretty significant way, we obviously saw it jump to 3.9%. small businesses is a huge part

of what facebook does, without question, so, unemployment rate goes higher, small business, theoretically, starts to slow down, slow down in small business, slow down in the ad spend. that, to me, is one of the risks out there i don't think enough people are talking about. >> we have these conversations about frothiness and markets and it's pretty clear that facebook is about as interesting of a valuation combined with some earnings growth and some upside drivers, things like reels, where there really is monetization, they can close the gap on other formats. i'm long meta. this doesn't scare me. coming up, is the bottom in for new york community bank corp? one of our traders is betting that the worst could be over for the embattled regional bank. why they are a buyer next. plus, sports betting is coming to north carolina. what that means nor flutter, draftkings, and the other major operators, as the book makers go live in yet another state. more "fast money" right after this.

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why did you buy? >> this i think of arne s an op that has life. i think when those two things are together, a lot of good things can happen. now, the downside here, i think, could it go to zero? that could happen. this deal falls apart, i don't think it will, that could happen, but if things are far worse than the team thought, that would happen again, but i think more likely scenario is that they start to work their way out of it, and it's trading at a little over half ish, a little under, actually -- >> yeah. >> half times book, and i think you get -- when you start to get a positive momentum and you got to lever things and it has life, the risk/reward is interesting. >> today, they closed -- >> i didn't see if they actually did. >> it was expected. working through this means potentially selling $24 billion of $85 billion of its loan book,

which seems like a lot to work through. >> yes, but if you don't have a fire sale situation, right? if you have some time, then i think the risk/reward is interesting. >> hmm. >> you sound -- >> i have no opinion. i'm switzerland. who has the same opinion as karen? >> makes sense. i understand what she's doing here. this could be cut in half at any point, if they fail. she also understands that given how levered things are, this could be a double, or a triple, based on what we've seen before. we've seen stupid things happen in names like this before. so, she understands her risk, it's a risk/reward thing. 3 to 1 in your favor, you take it every day. let's get another check on oracle. afterhours session highs, up by 13%. ceo saying revenue will accelerate in the current quarter and be higher in the next fiscal year. she went on to say guy dance, quote, might prove to be too conservative, given our

momentum. that should light a fire under the stock, which we're seeing right now. why would you go out there -- >> that e's interesting. very, very sneaky, to put out conservative guidance and say it might not be conservative. but again, back to their oracle cloud infrastructure, or oci, i mean, i think there's huge upside here and i think there's certainly a gap they can narrow with some of the leaders. that's the story here, and in terms of the underperformance, that's why the stock is doing what it's doing. coming up, the tar heel state getting in on the game. north carolina is the latest state to legalize online sports betting with march madness just days away. more on that when "fast money" rern tus. ♪♪ hey, is this thing hard to learn? nah, it's easy. huh. you know, i think i'm going to ride it home. good thing you chose u.s. bank to manage and grow your money. with our 24/7 support at least

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in the tar heel state. each paid a million dollar licensing fee. the big guys, fan duel and draftkings, will roll out the dominant aps. will mgm and cesars? but espn bet's launch might get outsized attention in north carolina. the rebrand from penn entertainment, no longer barstool, taking and vantage of the licensing deal with a sports media powerhouse, and since its launching on day one, with its bigger competitors, it offers the clearest view about whether penn can muscle in on some major market share. fanatics bet will compete in north carolina, and underdog, which has made an impact in daily fantasy, competitors listen, they've been lobbying hard against that platform, accusing it of offering sports betting in the guise of daily fantasy, but in north carolina, it launches as a sportsbook. all these operators will pay 18% tax, much more business-friendly

than, for instance, here in new york, where the nation's biggest state for sportsbetting charges 51% tax. last year, sports betting gross gaming revenue grew nationally 45% over 2022 to nearly $11 billion. one final thing, the acc kickoff tomorrow, march madness starting sunday, some states restrict college sports betting, like, they don't let bettors wager on in-stace teams, but north carolina does not have those restrictions, so, we'll see how duke and unc line up. >> sounds like a land grab, contessa. going to be a lot of promotions? >> there already are, but nothing in the neighborhood that we saw when new york launched. the promotions in the neighborhood of, like, 200, 250. it's not anywhere near the thousand, 2,000, 3,000 promotions. partly because the sportsbooks have figured out, it doesn't pay off. sports bettors will not stay,

they chase the promotions. so, it doesn't pay off to offer those kind of promotions. >> contessa, thank you. contessa brewer. tim? >> con testessa is our resident gambler. she's really nailed this. i believe the sports betting world is just upshifting in gear. in other words, a lot of the big operators have enough scale where they're really able to pass through some of the efficiencies. draftkings is not spending across the board as they used to. the guidance they gave recently on their numbers, and multiyear output on financial targets, you know, right now, seems reasonable. and again, this is a growing addressable market. i like it. >> i think the average price target is 48, barclays, they raised it late february to 50. into earnings, early april, people are going to have to start to rachet their numbers up, and that $48 average price is going to be north of 50 before you know it. up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade. tim? >> draftkings. i like the jackpot acquisition, as well. i think it gets them into a gaming channel that has a lot of crossover. i think the space, it's addictive. i know it's not supposed to be, but it is. >> karen? >> yes. dell. i like, you know, i think the pc refresh, enterprise spend is back, and a.i., put them all together, it's a cheaper way to play it. >> dan? >> yeah, i think rates lower, tlt higher. >> guy? >> big night there in msg, you know. >> huge.

>> a lot of hockey over the next week or so. both dan and tim will be there. >> go rangers. >> if you look at f freeport-mcmoran, that's been doing a stealth rally. you continue to ride that horse. >> silent f in clam. thank you forthat horse. [ music ] >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a whole market somewhere. and i'm here to help you find it. >> i'm kramer, welcome to mad money.