and long-term. >> all right, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> those retailer earnings we're going to get over the next couple of days. s&p 500, we closed at a record high, up 1.1%, rebounding from the selloff we saw in the past couple days. >> more action tomorrow, and then we have adobe later, too. >> and tech leading the charge, back in charge. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. old tech, new tricks. it's not just invid ynvidia tak the market to highs. what does this resurgence say about the strength of the market rally? we'll dig in. plus, china rising. the fxi has rallied nearly 20% since hitting 15-year lows in january. is this just the start of a real rebound in the region? we'll talk to one top investor to find out. and a big bank breakout. shares of deutsche bank suddenly

hitting two-plus year highs. is there more room for the name to run? one of our traders lays out the case. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim see your, courtney garcia, dan nathan, and guy adami. it was oracle and nvidia that caught our eye, both surging and highlighting strength across generations of big tech. oracle's pop after earnings last night bringing gains to 20%. it's not the only veteran in rally mode. dell, hpe, ibm trading to all-time highs. after a two-day pause, nvidia jumping more than 7%, closing just off its record high. meta recouping yesterday's losses. so, is this a case of in with the old,in with the new, too? guy? >> i like that. apparently so. and we play this game a lot, but you know, with the move in the bond yields, up to 4.15, if you told me last night, what's going to happen to these stocks,

they're all going to sell off -- especially the reversal we saw on friday. clear that didn't happen. however, to answer your question, you know, one thing i think we've done a good job on are these old tech names. we had ben on the show on march 4th, he talked abdel. t the good news, that's a stock you want to look at. ibm, we've been steadfast. our senior executive producer, i think that was the i in his anagram. >> acroacronym. >> acronym. old tech is a place where you can rationalize valuation for those names as opposed to the other high flyers. >> there's an a.i. undercurrent to the quote unquote old tech names. >> absolutely. nvidia has been the big winner there, but what people need to realize, you're going to need hardware. if we actually want to use a.i., you need a device that's enabled

with a.i. to actually use it. after the pandemic, everyone got their computers, but it takes a three-year cycle for everyone to get new ones. just in general, people need new computers, buff overt over the decade, you are going to need one. >> guy's cycles 15 years. >> tim, you heard that before? >> somewhere. >> super cycle. >> it seems to work. >> i'm just saying. listen, i get what you're saying, too, and that is going to be the next iteration of this trend. everybody needed the gpus, that's why the semiconductors have gone this way. what dell and the hyper scalers are telling you, it is a verticalized poperation here. i would expect that demand kind of gets -- settles out a little bit. there was an article in information starting the day talking about how google and the other cloud players are kind of tamping down expectations for the commercialization of some of these products. i think that is going to be a story that clearly hits the tech market at some point this year.

and that is a story about expectations. and it's a story about how excited people are about some very crowded investments, but again, on a day like today, when you saw the reversal on friday of some of the semina names, we were all a little bit surprised they didn't follow through a bit more, and to see nvidia come back the way it did, it tells you they are just not done yet. they're just not done yet coming for these names. >> well, i look at oracle and, again, this is old tech, a company, though, that's transformed itself over the last few years. they really have. and they now -- if you look at the strength of the numbers they put out yesterday, not only where they like a lot of companies showing margin enhancement, more efficiency, everybody's got the year of efficiency, by the way, see a.i. and see what really happens, that's part of the multiple here, but the core businesses across two, three business lines, rpo, oci, the oci gets you more into the a.i. space. and i think it gets back to a space where people are looking for the names that have

multiples that they can get behind. we can question all day long, right or wrong, on what you want to pay for amd or nvidia, but when it gets back to some of these older tech names, the valuations are a lot more palatable, if i may. and so, there are a few tech names, i think it's important to point out, really haven't been part of the party. look at cisco. cisco's been kind of dead in the water. hasn't been a disaster, but it's a case of a company that's been trying to transform itself. i know this story, because i'm long, and it's really lagged. and the software and security dynamic of their business, which is high margin and recurring revenue, and annuity dynamics, have really not gone so well. intel, we talk about them all the way, not cheap, by the way. certainly on a multiple. maybe underowned, which is why i own it. i think they're starting to come through on a product base. it's a fascinating time. when i don't think that a lot of the market is all that expensive, and yet, if you look at the top of the tree and those names are very expensive. >> i was going to say intel, too. it's not that exciting.

when they reported in late january, they missed, they guided lower, the stock was down 12% in one day. it's been kind of range bound here. and i think your point is a good one. it's expensive right now on current estimates. if those estimates start to go higher -- again, look at taiwan semi, the beneficiary of the chips act, building plants in the u.s. if you just look at a name like qualcomm, we mentioned this a couple months ago, again, a name, if pcs are not great, if handsets are not great, and you have to wait for a refresh cycle for a.i. to be on the devices, qualcomm just ran in front of it. you want to look at a name where a lot of the end markets are not doing well, but maybe they have the manufacturing angle this year and should play catchup, but again, that only happens if this whole thing is broadening out a bit, and you guys have all made the case that it has. >> it's broadening out. i think it is. >> here's a question one year time frame, intel or nvidia? >> ah, probably intel, to be

honest with you. i don't know how a company that encapsulates so much of the excitement in and around the chip space and is clearly the beneficiary of all the orders, has gained a trillion and a half dollar market cap in 18 months, intel's left for dead, that's where i would put my money. >> adobe, i think it's thursday, they report. quarter of a trillion dollar company, a huge runup into '21, fell off a cliff like everything else. people are going to talk about this as an a.i. name, have they figured it out? reasonable valuation. of course, the problem is, it's had a huge run, and it is historic for their earnings releases, and then selloffs after, but if they can catch a bid, then maybe we are broadening out to the extent that everybody thinks. >> is that the name of the game, in order to broaden out, you have to be part of a.i.? >> no. banks aren't part of a.i. >> technology, sorry. >> okay -- yes and no. we've seen a lot of software names that are just software names. look at crowdstrike, look at a

lot of the names that have had big, big days. that, to me, has been the progr progression. you followed semis, then software, then megacap techs. are we done with tech? i wanted to talk about something else. >> what do you want to talk about? tim, it's your show, you know t -- >> you were asking me about tech, but guy started -- >> okay, see? >> interest rates and cpi. and i -- >> okay, i thought -- >> did you -- i thought i was in trouble. >> it's all tied in, i mean, if i told you -- >> that's where i was going. >> what would you think the market reaction would be? >> i could have tied it back to tech. maybe i was too honest here, but the cpi number wasn't great for markets. >> no. >> and it was a fascinating day, because rates went higher. i think we're still at a two-year uptrend on long rates. every time it tests the bottom end of that channel, it's bouncing. if you looked at what we got in terms of services inflation, owners equivalent rent dynamics,

i think june is 50/50. it was 75% to 80% a few weeks ago, and yet equities don't really seem to care. that's what makes a day like today fascinating, because i think there are parts of the market that really love this dynamic, and i think banks are near the top of that list. >> at what point should we start caring that maybe that rate cut is beingpriced out of june and that you only have the back half of the year to get those accomplished? >> i think we're going to need to see how the next couple reports come. at this point in time, right, we did see an increase in cpi. the markets didn't care about that, because it wasn't a huge increase, but core inflation actually came down, super core inflation actually also came down, which is a good thing. but one of these data points isn't going to make or break things. as much as we like inflation to come down, it doesn't work like that. but if this continues to be a trend, absolutely that would be a problem. i don't think we're there yet. neither do the markets, so, we're going to have to see how it continues. >> again, we've stopped talking about the yield curve because

clearly the market doesn't care, but liz young, who is on that great show "halftime report" from time to time. >> also on some podcast. >> she is, actually. but she does all the different cnbc shows except this one. she tweeted earlier that today we've actually surpassed 79-80 in terms of longest duration of an inversion in the yield curve, which i think should matter, but clearly, the market doesn't care. and at some point, again, it's not the -- it's the steepening where people should care and we haven't gotten there. we got close, but we haven't gotten there. and here we sit at 45 basis points or so, and seemingly off on our merry way. >> it's not just the u.s. china internet stocks are breaking out. the crane shares china etf jumping 7% this week. it's on track for its best week since last september where it gained 8%. the kweb now up almost 16% from its late january low. so, is this momentum a sign of sustainable rebound under way?

have we seen the worst in terms of the indices in china, tim? >> that's certainly how i've been positioning. and i've been positioning on some levels for this for maybe a year, a year and a half, but i do think, especially when folks are allocating for, you know, 12, 15, 18 months, even out two years, the dynamic, in china are really interesting. china is going through a change that we never expected they'd go through, even though that's what happens when your demographics are as poor as china's are. yeah, i said that. we talked about the 80 billion of the 195 billion of market cap of baba being in cash. the top level funds who have exposure to china, historically, and that includes msci global, are as underweight economy that as they've been in ten years, and that's before the a-shares were put in the index. they're below a level before a significant part of the index forced them to own china. there's no -- there's nobody

that owns this market. there's a lot of reasons for it. and i still don't feel like i can have high conviction that the government's my friend here. but i look at some of the big internet names in china, their version of the mag seven, and they're interesting -- >> it's fab four, bro. everything that tim said makes a lot of sense. you think about how bad the data is now, and you think about the export data that's been really good -- i think you want to flip that narrative upside down a little bit. to me, everything we talked about last night about tiktok and the banning and the lack of our digital companies being able to be over there, i think that's the stuff that stays pretty murky for some time to come. you mentioned president xi and how he feels about their domestic champions, well, they've already taken them out to the wood shed i. if i look at a name like baba, obviously they don't want things to go pear shaped, they've gone bad enough, if there's one stock on my entire board that i think could double over the next year, it would probably be alibaba.

>> and you put your b where your z zebra was. dan's a little -- he's a little self-conscious, not self-conscious, he feels like his acronym doesn't get enough attention. >> your blicep gets a lot of attention. >> and guy's clam is trending. >> i'm sure it's trending. >> trending all over the place. real quick. if we can throw an fxi chart up. we said in late january, folks, here is your opportunity. got down to 21, the same levels we saw october of 2022, go back -- ithink it was '08, the last time it was down there. we said, this is it, the risk/reward sets up well. i know it hasn't exploded to the upside, but it's done okay. i'm with the guys on alibaba. i'm sure courtney feels the same way. this thing in a downtrend for four years, it's had 45% to 50% rallies seven or eight times. >> yeah, i'm completely onboard with that. we've really been making sure

that we have a stake in emerging markets, and i think it's interesting, because when you look at fund managers have been underweight china, we're seeing that from investors, too. blackrock made an emerging market fund x china because people aren't willing to go in there, even though they are onboard with the idea of emerging markets. and it is a good portion of some of those funds, but i think because of the risk/reward, people are so out of it right now, and i think there's a lot of money that will go back in. i think you want to have a piece of that in your portfolio. >> david reedle is a former sound brothers analyst based in asia. david, great to have you with us. i think what's not getting that much attention is what happened last week at the national people's congress, and the efforts that china might actually get accomplished to boost consumer spending, which could be huge for a lot of these stocks. >> absolutely. i think it's really gone under the radar that there is a generational change potentially

in china where they are planning to -- considering liberalizing what is called the household registration program. so, all these hundreds of millions of migrant workers that live and work in the cities really live in the shadows. they can't own property, they can't send their kids to local schools, they can't access health care, any of the other social benefits, because their household registration is back home in their little town in rural china. so, they are talking about changing that, which would unleash a huge amount of consumer demand for household goods, forapartments, for all kinds of things. so, i think that if china gets that right, it starts to become investable in a way that i don't think it has been in the last five or ten years. >> at this point, david, would you say that the chinese government itself or the u.s. government is the bigger risk to china's stocks? >> i think the u.s. has kind of taken itself a little bit out of that risk. they played a game of chicken with beijing a couple years ago about audit and s.e.c. and

registrations and writ listings, and china blinked. you know, china has being willing to inflict a lot of pain on their own market through the attacks on big tech and so on and so forth in the last few years. i think if beijing backs away a little bit and gives people confidence they're not going to interfere, china could be in for a multiyear run. >> david, it's tim. great to have you. you've really -- you've caught different pieces of this. you were very bearish on china in october of '22. great to have you back on what looks like a pivot, and if there's anyone i'm listening to on em, it's you. i get back to the technical dynamics, we heard about china's plunge protection team. their government is going in and buying etfs and they're stimulating their market much in the same way we did here. what do you think about that, and i talked before about positioning for global investors, big, big investors if they change this much are going to change, i think, the return profile of the asset class. >> i think that's exactly right.

remember what china has going for it. they control 70% of their eco economy. they've definitely got money to spend in beijing to support different parts of the economy they want to support. let's not hope that they put their thumbs on the scale too much to really turn things over. but my clients have been out of china for years at this point. and i think some of them are starting to regret it, and they're starting to look at ways to get in. where can i get comfortable with governance? where can i get comfortable with valuation? where i can get comfortable that beijing is not going to insert themselves into a industry or company and upset the apple cart? if i can answer a few of those things in the affirmative, i've got a great opportunity to inves in china today. >> david, i love your stemware. what percentage -- >> you caught that, mel, didn't you? >> you just look at the film from last week. chinese maritime authorities shooting water cannons at a

philippine vessel. it is just a hair's breath away from someone getting killed on either side of one of these aggressive attacks by china on the philippines, on vietnam, on the taiwan straits, it's just too dangerous for them to be operating at this kind of velocity. i'm leaving for taiwan on thursday, so, i'll be able to report back next week when i get back on how things are feeling on the ground there. but i think everyone needs to be super careful and not get -- trip into an inadvertent war in that region. >> david, great to speak with you. thank you. i think that's the first time stemware -- >> i don't even know what it is. >> wine glasses. >> stop it. you know what stemware is. >> glasses with stems. >> cabernet. >> i don't drink wine. i'm showing my boorish nature here, but -- >> anyway. >> sorry about stemware. >> anyway. jd had great earnings, pdd got an upgrade yesterday.

where would you start here in china if you wanted a china stock? >> we're definitely playing the broad index, but i think that is what you're seeing with any of the individual companies. last year, even when you got some good news with these companies, it wasn't getting priced into the stock, but you're finally seeing that, right? good news actually leading to higher prices, which means the momentum is really shifting here. >> i'm just getting word, this is breaking news here, that david's family is -- >> stop it! get out of here. that's unbelievable! so -- you made fun of me. >> you did not know. >> yes, i did. >> you did not know that. we just got this in. >> and i'm the one that pointed out on tv that i don't have a lot of wine glasses, i would assume i'm going to get a box of these things sent to me. >> david's listening still, i'm sure. >> and i love david's work. i'll say this really quickly. emerging markets, if you're following, 40% of china, you look at the indices, they are right up, the eem is the 42 level, the level it's been

bucking up to for a year and a half. remember the false breakout? maybe it was a real breakout. when rates started going higher in may of 2000, em took off, and as a guy that's been in this asset class for 20 years, it is an interesting time. i was buying levered calls on the eem earlier this week. >> the more you know. >> the more you know. coming up, headwinds in the airline trade. airlines losing altitude as continued problems at boeing weigh in on their travel plans. that's next. plus, has gold's run gotten out of hand? two of our traders say it's not losing its luster just yet. more on that when "fast money" tus.our advi looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients

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plug eventually blew off, that they were scheduling a maintenance check for the evening after that plane finished its final flight, as we know, that flight is when the door plug came off. so, the point of this being, there had been concern about what was happening here, there had been allegedly complaints from passengers on previous flights about a whistling sound within the aircraft. we bring this up, because it's all part of what we're noticing right now, melissa, whether it's the lawsuits, the investigations that are taking place, and there are at least three right now, the doj, faa, and ntsb looking at boeing and its manufacturing process. all of this gets into the question of, should this have been flagged earlier? and should the manufacturing process have caught some of the problems that ultimately led to this door plug being blown out? so, as you take a look at shares of boeing, and i know you're going to talk about this in a little bit, today was the jpmorgan transportation

conference. time and again, one of the questions came up, what are you going to do with your capacity this year and in the future? because you're not going to be getting the planes you thought you were going to get from boeing, or at least not as many, and as a result, a number of changes are going to have to be made by a number of airlines in terms of their future capacity plans. >> phil, thank you. phil lebeau. and among those airlines speaking at that conference, talking about capacity and reduced deliveries they will be getting. southwest, which saw a huge decline in today's session, they're getting 46 versus 79 expected, so, that's going to have a huge impact on their plans. >> look at -- okay, yeah, let's go through it. delta's the best -- actually delta higher today, has room, probably north of 46 bucks, been in this sort of 35, 49 range. delta is the place to be. alaska air, they gave guidance on march 12th, better than expected. lousy, but less lousy than expected. if you want to play chart technician here, it's been in a very steep downtrend for the last seven years, but you have these major double bottoms

around 31 1/2, 32, and if it can get some giddyup, and tim can speak to this, when it goes from really bad to just poor, that's when these things start to move, so, i think for a trade, alaska air looks really interesting here. >> american airlines, that was interesting, because they said that they would be in the lower end of their loss range, but they cited -- they didn't mention boeing, they cited fuel costs and rising fuel costs. and we saw that, as well, i think it was in the southwest comments during the conference. >> what's interesting, and unfortunately for airlines, they don't get credit for lower fuel prices, but they lose ground on higher. sometimes we find out about them in the aftermath. i agree with guy on delta, i think even above 42, you're starting to break out. i think this is -- airlines have been slow to the normalized economy dynamic, and they've been hampered, hindered by some of the boeing dynamics. really just global dynamics. but if you look at the southwest performance, and obviously, there's a lot of issues there.

it's not just a boeing issue. even without boeing, they have a loss and they, you know, their first quarter update, kind of talked about revenue per available seat miles. that's rasm, and there's many acronyms that usually add up to one thing, airlines are often not very efficient and running well above their cost base, and this is something that i think is -- is a concern for the industry, especially if costs are going higher. i think that the big three, with an emphasis on delta, is where you want to be here. i wouldn't be chasing southwest yet. all right, there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. metal musings. analysts saying gold's record run has gone too far too fast. but a few of our traders beg to differ. why they say gold could keep glistening. plus, obesity drugs making waves this year, but could the new budget proposal tip the scales on this trade? what to watch, as the weight loss drug race rages on. you're watching "fast money,"

live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." after rallying more than 6% in

the last month, gold took a breather today. settling down a percent for its worst day since february 13th. that is after barclays called the rally premature in a note this morning. analysts pointing out that gold has risen after, not before, the fed's first rate cut, and for that reason, is running ahead of itself. but two traders say no, no, no, we do not agree. those traders being tim and guy. let's start off with you, guy, because you have two letters in your clam -- >> excuse me? oh, yes, right. >> huh. >> well, the a. >> the a is a miner, the other ones have nothing to do, but that's fine. with that said, again, we've talked about -- i don't know -- there's no euphoria around the gold market. when you look at the nonsense, some of the zaniness that's going on in individual equities, that, to me, is a little extreme. i don't think we've gotten extreme in gold. we've mentioned how central banks are buying at record

amounts. 2022, 2023, on par this year to do exactly the same thing. and at a certain price, when you start getting through levels that we haven't seen before, you're getting institutional money that i don't think the market is fully prepared for, so, i understand that it's rallied, i understand why it sold off today on the back of the bond move, but gold is resilient. i think it goes higher today. >> i feel like knowing that gold typically rallies after fed pivot, you buy it before. >> you do. >> i don't know when that exactly is. >> but this pivot is coming in different stages and there's different pieces. we have a federal reserve that's kind of telling you they are gaming the short end of the market, they're trying to flood the market with as many short-ended treasuries as possible. you combine that with comments from various fed officials, like waller, that made some comments on qe and what they're doing, and all of this is the fundamental story behind gold. guy is dead on in terms of, you can't tell me gold's in a spec bubble. this has been going on slowly for a long time. if you look at open interest on the comex, this is institutions

and people that actually use gold, and some people that speculate it, we're at record low open interest at the end of february for gold. so, you know, tell me that this is a place where there's a frothy, and again, guy was a trader of this metal, of the yellow metal. >> among other things. >> to me, i've been following gold from the late 90s as an em guy when a lot of the central bank buying stuff was happening. i give credit to peter schiff, who has been on this show many times, we've had fun jousts, but he's been a gold bull. i think some of his views are extreme, but the whole dynamic of where we are with the u.s. reserve currency and the federal reserve, et cetera, slowly, this is the reason to buy gold. coming up, the latest on the weight loss drugs. could president biden's new budget proposal slim down the gains for drug makers? details next. and we're looking into the world of organized retail crime. the rise in theft and the billions of dollars in losses.

more on that when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks jumping after this morning's cpi data. the s&p up more than a percent, closing at another record high. the dow up 200 points, and the nasdaq jumping over 1.5%. some energy names hitting all-time highs. diamondback energy, marathon petroleum and valero trading near those levels. the xlv gaining 8% since january and a half a percent today, as wall street mulls president biden's budget. the proposal designating -- joining us here on set to go inside the proposal is dr. kavita patel, nbc news and msnbc medical contributor. >> clap her in. >> rarefied air now. >> it really is. really is. some of these proposals are very interesting, and i'm sure would appeal to many americans who are facing high drug costs, namely

the $2,000 cap, which would be applied to all insured americans. >> right. >> which seems amazing from this standpoint. >> it is. >> consumer standpoint, but not so for the drug companies. >> i think, obviously, we have to even see how the initial ten drugs that were beingpriced by medicare play out c. we want to make sure they deliver on that out of pocket cost reduction. but we won't know until we see the prices and how much of that -- it's not just about the drug manufacturer, there's all these people in the middle involved with drugs and the out of pocket costs. but it's still a signal from the biden administration, they know this is popular, and expanding this, not just to broader markets beyond medicare, is something that voters want. you're seeing a rehash of some of the more popular initiatives in 2022 playing out in 2024. >> amazing to have you on, doctor. years ago, there was a huge bulls eye, always in political -- presidential campaigns, on big cap pharma's back, but the market seems to have sniffed out all bark and no

bite. is that an accurate assessment of what's going on? >> i think it's accurate that we won't know what the bark kind of is and how it matches the bite until we see those prices playing out, which we will know in september this year. so, we'll have critical milestones in the last quarter of 2024, and that should shape how much of the bite there is. what i will say, no matter whether the president's budget goes into place or just what's in law, we will still have, at some point, every drug in medicare eventually will be on this list, so at the end of the day, medicare price negotiation and drug negotiation is real. add to that states trying to do reimportation, colorado, other places, the pressure on pharma is real, and we're seeing it in the early venture space. you're seeing a change in how early venture funds are investing in bio tech, because they don't know if big pharma will still be able to kind of invest in them. so, those things, i think, have cycled out. still a very good space for the obesity drugs, though, because it looks like medicare could

pick up one of those drugs for coverage, now that it has a cardiac indication, namely ozempic. that's a big deal. >> getting to a place where the biden ten, you could make an argument if you are early stage enough, these drugs are not early stage, but at some point, do you see companies opting out of being in the medicare market, period? i'm thinking about glp-1. they don't care right now. and as you said this is populist rhetoric, at least for now, so, i'm just curious how you see this and this is a administration that's talking about the cancer moonshot. how are you going to get companies to get there if you do this? >> and you see crumbs in the budget for kind of cancer moonshot, talking about amending exclusivity so they can have more of that kind of safe harbor for skinny labels. they are doing some things. i think they trying to say, like, look, we want to negotiate on price, but we're also going to try to create some incentive downline for these drugs. but i think you're right that

manufacturers are having to make a decision, these ten have all been very clear, they do not want to be out of the medicare space. who would want to? medicare is such a large payer, and as medicare goes, so go the other things and you see the president extending the medicare insulin caps to the commercial market. so, you're seeing a very familiar pattern. to get out of medicare would be a pretty devastating -- that would be a lot of bite for the bark, i think. >> you mentioned early stage money, re-evaluating how they invest, that seems like it would have tremendous repercussions, maybe not immediately, but five years down the line? in what way are they changing how they invest and where they put their money? >> it's interesting. the national venture capital association has done a survey, they've done it two years in a row, i think, leading up to the i.r.a. and since the i.r.a. to try to see where early stage investors are changing or thinking differently. they have all said, i think majority of the early stage investors say they're trying to think very carefully about whether orphan labels or rare

disease indications, thinking about what the drugs that are potentially being funded, and whether or not that that would be kind of a narrow, more narrow indication, what that would mean for medicare, because if you have something that's rare, or more narrow, that was normally a way to get in kind of the early fda breakthrough designation accelerated approvals, but you wanted a larger commercial play. that designation might not protect you from price negotiation necessarily, so, that's the kind of thinking you're seeing. however, do not mistake, there's still a lot of investments, especially in the glp-1 space, ne neurodegenerative diseases, huge opportunity, and i still think there's still enough in cancer, cancer is a big space, and a big number of diseases that come under there, but it's still something investors are talking about and two years ago, they weren't. >> just quickly, but what is the one drug with the company that investors are sort of not paying attention to, but doctors are? >> oh, that's -- this is a test

of -- >> it's just a drug -- >> no, no. >> that you are excited about for your patients. >> yeah, no, i -- well, so, i know that we've had some of the problems with the a.l.s. drugs, there's certainly enough reasons that data was not sufficient, but i do think that space and kind of the technology and using something that can be, like, very exciting for nerve stimulation, for a.l.s., for other neurodegenerative diseases, is incredibly exciting, and i think that space, with, like, brain computer stimulation and using that with molecules, is something that we're all very excited about. and many of those companies, public now, are in early stages for that. >> dr. patel, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> good to see you here on-set. >> regular, i think, now. official. >> v-scheme, which is your acrony acronym, i use that term

loosely. the h is health care. >> yeah. you absolutely want to be in this space. and guy, you bring up something interesting. this is always a political football. you are going to see this spoken of a lot more this year. but this is one of those rare times where we've had both of these candidates, i don't know if we officially know that, in office, where we've seen what they've done in the health care space and people are not concerned about it, and i think you want to be in that space. i don't think the politics should weigh into that currently. >> pretty good desk-side manner, wouldn't you say, from dr. patel? >> yeah. >> that's all i have. >> i'm shocked that somebody of that high -- i'm not casting as sper shuns to our normal audience -- >> somebody that can save lives would bother watching "fast money"? >> let me make a real comment. >> whoa. >> some of the big pharma names that haven't been participating have significant investment in cutting edge technologies. you know the names. coming up, inside the shadowy world of organized retail crime. as cnbc gets access to how

thieves steal millions of dollars of items that end up for sale online. a cnbc ininvestigation, selling stolen, coming up next. it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

welcome back to "fast money." organized crime rings that target the country's retailers are prompting an aggressive crackdown by law enforcement. in a cnbc exclusive, we go inside the criminal police investigations that target the theft rings who set up thriving businesses to steal and sell online. here's courtney reagan with

"selling stolen." >> reporter: it's a chilly, clear morning in the picturesque foothills of san diego county, as we head to a suspected crime scene. a convoy of law enforcement vehicles is about to descend on an unlikely place. a mansion, complete with its own vineyard and chapel, rented out as a wedding venue and airbnb. police believe it's also the headquarters for a lucrative theft ring, where items stolen from ulta beauty supply and other retailers are being resold on amazon. as we pull up, authorities tell us, they have the suspected ringleader in handcuffs. >> what are we looking for? >> there they are right there. >> reporter: and it's happening everywhere. for months, we got exclusive access to the california highway patrol, watching up-close how it fights organized retail crime. which, including external theft,

total $40.5 billion in the u.s., according to the national retail federation's most recent estimate. on another day, in another california city, we see more truckloads of what police say is stolen clothing, mostly from tjmaxx. >> we have a search warrant for the resident. come out with your hands up now. >> i think people feel like it's hopeless. i want the retailers and the victims of this to know that's not true. >> hands on your head. >> reporter: retailers specifically pointing to theft as a growing problem in recent years, include target, foot locker, walgreens, and ulta. but if you quantify the impact, or off er few offer details, raising questions in the industry about whether retailers are using the attention around theft to cover their own operational missteps. >> the woman arrested, michelle mack and her husband, have plead not guilty to conspiracy and theft charges. an amazon spokesperson said, we invest more than $1 billion annually and employ thousands of people to fight fraud.

the company added that it uses sophisticated detection and prevention solutions, allowing us to quickly spot a range of organized retail crime schemes. amazon acknowledged in this case, we did not receive signals to identify the seller was engaged in selling stolen goods. as far as tjmaxx, the company tells us it is laser focused on fighting retail crime in its stores. there is so much more on cnbc.com and cnbc's youtube channel, full piece is 17 minutes. we were able to follow a number of cases and stings. the one here, most of those goods were beauty products being stolen from ulta and then resold on amazon. it happened over a decade, over $8 million worth of goods and when we were there, they pulled out $387,000 worth of goods that were stolen mostly from ulta. >> back when the retailer had inventory overhangs, this seemed to be an oft-cited issue. often it is not. are they getting better am cot

b at combatting, or it was just a coverup? >> it's such a good question, and that's what's really hard about this. it's really hard to nail down a number and figure out the trend. is it increasing? is it just happening during certain times when there's other inventory missteps happening? there's more online. i was able to speak with ulta's ceo. we talked for 45 minutes about only organized retail crime. and he said, for us, it is accelerating. it is a bigger problem, and imseemit seems to be getting worse. they are locking up 100% of fragrances in their stores, which is a big deal. but the rest of the makeup is out to explore and test, because that's sort of the business model. he says he visits stores, it is the number one question that he gets from employees, is, what can we do to help combat this theft? so, he acknowledges for him and for his business, it is a bigger problem. california highway patrol, they have seen arrests go up, the cases that they're following, more than 100%.

homeland security told us the same thing. so, you know, at least the arrests and the case load seem to be going up. in aggregate, is it all going up? we just don't know. a lot of it is underreported. in a number of the cases we followed, ulta is the one that sort of began aggregating the day too to give to the place for them to investigate. it took them a year for this one. tjmaxx, similarly, the asset protection officers were on the ground to identify those goods, and they were the ones that had to begin to build the case for law enforcement, so, a number of these also end up going underreported. it is just really hard to know. >> courtney, thank you. great work. >> thank you. >> check it out on our youtube channel and cnbc.com. coming up, one of our traders seening bullish signs in deutsche bank. more "fast money" in two. welcome to ameriprise.

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of deucbeaut deutsche ba today. dan thinks this could be a breakout. we haven't mentioned this one in years, probably. >> and i don't think we've said anything nice in a decade. i'm going to channel my tim seymour and my carter braxton worth here, because i know this is -- i know tim likes the euro

banks, exposure in some of his e etfs. and carter has us focused on the bearish to bullish sort of reversals. look at this one-year chart. i saw the headline today about cost-cutting, i saw the way the stock reacted. i was looking at it yesterday, just breaking out above that kind of little base that it's been making here and that flag. look at the 20-year log chart. this is the one. and you look at this, you see, if there's anything decent going on there fundamentally, you know what i'm saying? from a technical perspective, this stock's got a lot of room to run, so, again, channeling my "fast money" copanelists here, i don't know, looks kind of interesting. all right, up next, final trades.

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>> dan? >> yeah, i'd say idvo, it's got a lot of banking exposure internationally. >> guy? >> david, that stuff better be in the mail. >> delicate to be in the mail. you have a trade? >> alk, mel. >> thank you for wchating "fast." "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer, welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain and educate, but i want to teach you and explain tonight i'm doing it. so call me at 1800-743-cbc or call me. i always hear people