cigarettes in the stock movers. it's pie day. i can go out two? "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. things are looking up so far on this thursday morning if you are a bull. check it out. equity futures are higher. dow futures up by 150 points. s&p nis up 20. if you have been watching treasury yields, they are higher after the hotter than cpi

number. we get the ppi number and that tells us if inflation is sticking there. it was hotter in january. the ten-year note is sitting below 4.2% at 4.198. the two-year note at 4.26%. the head of the national transportation safety board said security camera footage showing work done on the boeing max 9 door plug that blew out mid flight has been overwritten. in the letter to the senate committee and the chair and agency still lack critical information of the events that led up to the january incident and who performed work. boeing's ceo dave calhoun said he was unable to provide the names of the workers. boeing has no records of the work performed. boeing says the company does not

retain security footage for longer than 30 days. the work was in the factory last year and delivered in october. more news raising eyebrows and questions. oh, my. that's all i have to say. >> i know. i guess i have seen enough "dateline" and drama and you look at the footage and you say oh, no. you leave it in. you use it again. it's new stuff. the old stuff is gone. it is plausible, but why do it? >> i understand you won't hold it for more than 30 days. what you don't understand is you don't have records on who worked on each individual plane. you think there is a mark which tells you there is a team. >> it goes to a coverup. >> a culture that doesn't track things. >> i agree. >> doesn't follow-up on things.

that is the central component of the ongoing challenge for the company. >> how much crucial bolts are on a boeing? >> a lot. >> thousands. these seem really important. >> to hold the door plug? >> yeah. it seems those are important. there must be a million parts if they are not there is a problem. i'm trying to give them leeway. >> i'm more surprised you would not have any records of which team worked on which part. >> this is bizarre. >> big news. >> a frequent guest which is the last guy that i hot would be chairman of under armour. surprise announcement from under armour yesterday.

viewers at home are waiting to hear. the ceo stephanie linnartz is stepping down and kevin plank is returning on april 1st. stephanie will stay on as an adviser. plank will remain on the board, but handing over the chair position to mohamed el-erian. the economic adviser. he was on a couple of daysi ago. shares are down 17% since she took over as ceo in february of 2023. happening right now. elon musk's spacex is preparing for a test flight this morning. the first two launches had mixed results. both rockets achieved milestones before they were destroyed because of problems. spacex hopes to demonstrate new capabilities like opening and

closing the spacecraft door and splashing down in the indian ocean. stocks on the move. let's start with beer and signiciga cigarettes. shares of ab inbev falling as it looks to return more cash to shareholders. altria owns 10% of the beermaker. it agrees to recover shares when the offer is over. it realizes a portion of the return on the long-term investment. we talk about pepsi and chips and soda. you think beer and cigarettes. >> right. 30 years ago, maybe. >> maybe that's changing. >> 40 years.

robinhood saw a big increase in february. up 36% in trading over january. volume for options contracts rose 12% to 1$119 million and crypto volume was $6.5 billion. shares of robinhood now up 100% year over year. that's what i meant with liquidity in the markets. a feeling and animal spirits thing that has come back. >> liquidity. that may be now. it's a little bit worrisome. >> that's why i wonder when you look at bitcoin and it all is a piece -- >> of the liquidity. a lot of stuff sloshing around. herb keliher. it wasn't beer, but bourbon and red marlboro or lucky strike. does that lifestyle exist?

>> paris sparis? >> paris exists. >> a lot in davos when we were there. shares of the cybersecurity company reported a smaller than expected loss. guidance was softer than expected. the company's ceo said margins face several pressure points from the costs related to three ak ri sigcqui acquisitions. sen sentinelone is not facing the same problems as palo alto. the customers are continuing to spend aggressively. new details on reddit's ipo from the road show. the platform telling investors that it expects to grow revenue by more than 20% this year and break even when it comes to adjusted earnings. that would mark a turn around for reddit which became

profitable for the first time last year. it is looking to raise $748 million and plans to sell 22 million shares between $31 and $41 a piece. coming up, more on "squawk box," the house passing. we will see if the white house does it. passing the tiktok divest or ban bill. we will talk about what is likely to happen next. and steven mnuchin is here with us at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. we will talk about that and so much more. "squawk box" is coming right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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millions who have connected to america's most reliable 5g network. sure is a lot safer than becoming a stuntman for money. get a free line of unlimited intro for a year when you buy one unlimited line. visit xfinitymobile.com today to learn more. welcome back to "squawk box." the house looking to divest tiktok leading to the app's ban in the u.s. and that moves to the sdenate. we have our business reporter joining us. nice to see you. satya, help us. this will go to the senate, but in terms of getting to the senate, what is the timeline and what reaction are you hearing from folks there? >> so, right now, we haven't heard a lot from the senate in terms of what will happen.

for example, schumer has not confirmed this will be introduced and taken on, but that is the next step for this legislation. anything can happen. tiktok, obviously, is waging a strong lobby against this going forward. they are really turning to the users to call legislators and senators. just last night, you saw the tiktok ceo put out his video to reach out to creators and users to be part of the process. it will be fascinating lead up to what goes on in the senate. >> do you that is affn efffn ef strategy? there has been backlash because people in washington have said look at the power of the social media platform.

look what could happen or maybe is happening depending on who you believe that the chinese government could influence so many people? >> yeah. people have the right to call their elected representatives, but i think that the thursday stunt was met with frustration from lawmakers. tiktok had a designglitch. they sent the message that said call your representatives. tiktok is going to be banned. for a period, people could not x out of that and were not able to do the normal swipe up to remove the message. they could only swipe right. you had a lot of people just clicking the button and calling the lawmakers or hanging up. a lot of people did call and express concern that this app they love may be taken away. >> let's talk about the ban versus divestiture debate.

tiktok said this is a ban given the six-month timeline and given some of the language in the house bill. the folks who crafted that bill say no, no, this is a divestiture to force them to sell to somebody else. what is realistic? >> it's hard to say, honestly, because each side is really adamant that what they're saying is accurate. you have jeff jackson, the congress member, the most popular on tiktok, 2.5 million followers who voted in favor of the bill and he doesn't think it will go away. he thinks they could reach a resolution where bytedance spins off tiktok or gets new owners. tiktok says it is not possible. i think the thought of a sale of the company raises questions.

we're not sure if this applies to just tiktok u.s. or how would it interface with tiktok in other countries? you know, there's a short list of who could buy tiktok and who could afford it. >> let's talk about the short list. given the department of justice and the ftc lieina khan. >> when you look at the companies which could afford tiktok, not a ton of them out there. one would be meta. very unlikely that would pass regulatory. it is hard to see how that works. >> by the way, what is it worth given -- one of the things that has been revealed is this is not a money making business for all of the talk about its popularity, which it is. that's demonstrable. this is not a profitable

enterprise, it does not seem. >> yeah. it's private. it is hard to get a sense of what it would cost. i remember in 2020 the numbers thrown around at the time were $50 billion. the app is bigger than it was then. also unclear how it would be valued. the other big question, too, is let's say all of these things happen and you get to this point and would china intervene and block a sale or would certain pieces of the technology not be up for sale or export to the u.s.? it's raised so many questions and this will be a crash course for americans in m&a. >> thank you, sapna. when we come back, shares of u.s. steel plunged yesterday on reports that president biden could express concerns over its acquisition by the japanese

company. we've got the details on that next. later, disney taking a page from the activist playbook and the proxy battle with nelson peltz. we will dig into that story later this hour. "squawk box" will be rig bk.htac ial advisor, my promise to you is simple. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. i promise that our relationship will go well beyond just investment decisions. it's the intersection of your money and your life where we can make the biggest difference. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com i could use a little help. yeah, there's a lot of risk out there. huh ♪♪ hey, is this thing hard to learn? nah, it's easy. huh. you know, i think i'm going to ride it home.

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shares of u.s. steel closing down nearly 13% yesterday for the stock's worst day in four years. that move coming after the financial times said president biden plans to express concerns over the nippon steel's $15 billion takeover of the american

industrial giant. the rising opposition of the deal looms large ahead of the summit with president biden and the japanese prime minister next month. shares of u.s. steel up 3%, but year to date, down 13%. shares of ev startup fisker plunging to 17 cents overnight after the wall street journal reported for a potential bankruptcy filing. fisker had a doubt of the concerns going forward and this is the same worry others in the ev pace a vv space are reportin and robinhood with the resurgence of retail trading. that's ahead next. and as we head to break, let's get a look at yesterday's s&p winners and losers.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box." we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. this morning, the futures are looking up. dow futures up 136 points. nasdaq up 90. s s&p up 19. bitcoin is up to $73,752. ethereum is down slightly. crude oil prices at this hour, if you look, wti is slightly higher as well. up by close to 1%. $80.44. ice brent is closer to $84.64.

>> we need to add gold to the stack every morning. hitting a new high. reflective of what we're seeing. investors are hungry for a piece of the a.i. boom. our next guest helping retail investors get in before a.i. companies go public. joining us now is ben miller. fundrise is an online investment platform to offer access to private real estate. suddenly, more, recently, private a.i. companies like anthropic and canva. you want to get in on this other action? >> we basically have a couple million users and demock ratizi users. last year, people were in high

yield checking accounts and fixed income and the last couple months has been a radical shift to equity and a.i. all of the survey data is telling us they want more a.i. and they want to invest in the rising tide of a.i. we created an innovation fund, the first ever public venture fund, that tears down the barriers with private and public markets and democratizes. >> we remember what happened with robinhood and the meme stocks. robinhood had a crazy behavior of some companies. was the potential ever where the stock prices went? they could have never grown into the prices -- i won't mention names.

they are still around and holding stocks worth 2 cents on the dollar. >> say names. >> i'm getting closer. you have been waiting. a.i. is now the baton for meme which has been passed? the speculation has been passed to a.i. back to crypto. >> venture capital is the best performing asset class in history. before we launched our innovation fund, ordinary investors could not invest in venture capital. there is obviously risk, but what has happened with the market structure is private companies are staying private longer and you have the massive multibillion dollar companies that are still private. >> if your expertise was real estate, how long were you doing real estate? >> a decade. >> a decade.

suddenly a.i. and now you are experts in a.i.? at least -- remember when everybody would add a dot-com to their game? is it similar to that? >> we have 150 software engineers at the company and a couple million users. we have the full stack. i have been building software for a long time. my first experience in finance and in technology is pretty deep. it was the most natural where our expertise sits. real estate and technology. the timing was fortuitous. private markets re-priced down to normal levels. the greatest technology breakthrough of my life. investors should be able to participate in that and before us, they couldn't. >> what diligence do you do that is different from everybody else? >> our fund is registered with

the s.e.c. it is a publicly registered fund. it is a fund and we have a team and we hire ex-venture capital companies. our process looks likes any other venture capital. we focus on the mature companies pre-ipo. if you remember goldman sachs did this with facebook before they went public and did it with stripe. now we're doing it, too. there is a long history of providing access to people which shouldn't be based on net worth only. >> you don't think the net worth category is a good idea? clearly you think it is a bad idea. >> yeah. venture capital and these companies and our portfolio with these companies with $1 billion revenue or more. they are all mature. there's no reason from a

fundamental point of view, they should be barred from ordinary investors. >> the reason this is the case is people look at ftx or look at a company, by the way, people thought had great revenues and many of the companies still don't have profits, including many in your portfolio. they will say what's going to happen to this company? can they really be diligenced? if you talked to most venture capitalists, they say we are not in the diligence business. we're in the business of investing in 30 businesses. we expect that some large portions will go to zero. how they get to zero is less relevant to us. we are not spending all day long to figure it out. some will go to zero. that is a different model with the public investor than maybe somebody who has a high net worth who might be able to absorb that loss. that's the reason the question

is being asked. >> i get the question. venture capital as an industry has evolved the last couple decades. you are talking about a huge asset class. something like half a trillion dollars now. there is a spectrum. early stage which means you are making bets and late stage with hundreds of millions of revenue and thousands of customers. we focus in the late stage. it should be accessible to individuals. there is a manageable risk profile compared to betting on three guys in a garage is risky. >> a.i. to the point where it is right now and i don't know how to compare it to dot-com. how many will be survivors and how many will be the magnificent seven in the future? how many pets.com are around in a.i. right now? >> for sure. likely to be a boom and a

bubble. the research we did looked at the pathways of technology. pc, mobile, internet, cloud and it looks like a.i. is likely to be a $15 trillion market by the early 2030s. that's huge wealth creation. you have seen it go to $2 trillion. is that wealth creation going to accrue to the top 1% and we have a.i. and massive wealth inequality or will it be distributed fairly? that is why you have a fund portfolio. a diversified fund portfolio with the companies well established and some companies are more risky and likely to see losses. >> i think this is an interesting opportunity for some people. my question is what fees do you have on top of this ? >> normally is 2/20. we just charge 1.81.85% asset

management with no carried interest. that's how they get rich. it's a great business. by eliminating that -- >> how do you get rich? >> our model is a low fee model. we had a vanguard ethos. we can broaden access and lower the cost for each investor. our investment is $10 minimum. you do that with zeros and ones. software can lower this cost like with all finance. the cost of stock trading used to be high. it has fallen. this is a long arc of financial history toward democracy. >> you have funds invested? >> yeah. of course. >> are you real estate investors? can i sell and get into your

a.i.? do they feel neglected? they are so 2010, aren't they? >> we see people roll over from one fund to another. they were skeptical. if you look at the portfolio we have now which we launched 12 months ago and deployed into four of the five top private tech companies. who are the tech companies? openai and anthropic and databricks and canva and stripe. we don't known stripe, but those companies should be accessible to the individual investor. >> you own a lot of data centers in the real estate world that may have learned? >> data centers are the next explosive growth real estate. >> interesting. thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> good luck. i'm excited to find out what happens next. coming up later, we will talk to former treasury secretary steven mnuchin.

first, who former president trump is considering secretary of the treasury if he wins a second term in november. you want to hear that name in a moment. >> mohamed el-erian? >> no. some people in the audience will know this name very, very well. we will tell you. the tease. come back after the break. you can get the best of "squawk box" on your favorite podcast app anytime. "squawk box" rolls on after this.

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morikawa on 18. he is really boxed in here. gonna -not a good spot.day. off the comcast business van. into the vending area. oh, not the fries! where's the ball? -anybody see it? oh wait, there it is! -back into play and... aw no, it's in the water. wait a minute... are you kidding me? you got to be kidding me. rolling towards the cup, and it's in the hole! what an impossible shot brought to you by comcast business. quwelcome back to "squawk box." news our audience is interested in. former president trump has

spoken about hedge fund titan john paulson as the next treasury secretary according to the report from bloomberg. others are picking robert lightheizer and jeff haas. the former president saying he has no influence over the reversal on the tiktok ban or the proposal. paulson host ed a fund raiser a the florida home and is scheduled to host another one next month. telling boloomberg there have been no discussions of who will serve. later on this morning, we will talk to steve mnuchin about john

paulson and others. >> he made a lot of money during the housing crisis, but he was long on gold and nothing happened. it would be weird. a lot of names in the world within 20 years and the second treasury secretary named paulson. the guy who ran for president named paulson. pat paulson. >> i don't remember that. >> he was a funny comedian. he ran for president four times. >> like you would run for president? >> yeah. >> comedian like you are a comedian? >> very dead-pan. there is jim paulson who be make a great treasury secretary. sarah paulson? >> the actress. >> yeah. not in the real o.j. >> oh, in the movie. >> yeah. pat paulson was funny.

i guess i'm dating myself. i try to never do. >> i know. former cnn anchor don lemon announced elon musk canceled the show he planned to host on x. lemon said he was informed of the decision to cancel the deal hours after he taped the interview for the premiere of the "don lemon show." he had a good conversation, but clearly he felt differently. he had questions written by jeff zucker. it was jeff talking through don, so it lacked authenticity. >> i saw some of it last night. he was asking really got-ya' questions. >> he was asking free speech questions. >> and ketamine use.

>> he answered you the same way. i don't give a [ bleep ]. he said it more stidently. yesterday, he said i don't care or something like that. he didn't use the "f" word. >> the conundrum that don lemon was for him to be on the payroll which is different than when i was asking him. yeah. >> yeah. not a good -- it would be -- it wasa very strange interview. y y the guy hiring you. >> i don't know if you saw the report. he hadn't signed the contract yet. it will be interesting to see what happens. nonetheless, they were promoting x and linda yaccarino promoting it as part of the strategy and

at cbs talking about it. they were selling ads without the contract in place which i assume the lemon team will say we actually really had an implicit contract. you can't sell ads. >> you need to get paid out? >> oh, yeah. a question if he gets paid. >> elon does not have to think about the way things look as much as the rest of us, i think. a normal corporate type. what will people think? now i'm not -- he does. i'm hiring you and you're asking me these questions. you're finished, pal. that's what happened. you can't do that in the normal corporate world. i would like to be able to -- >> look out, world. >> i do. >> without having any juice. exactly. i have no -- i have no right to do it. he does. when we come back, disney taking a page out of the

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welcome back. disney's fight with nelson peltz is heating up. jamie dimon has publicly backed bob iger in the proxy battle. joining us now is the owner of 13 let's talk about this. it is not very often that you see a company that takes the same tactics that the activists tend to use. and fights back. a lot of times companies like to pretend they're above the fray. >> the companies -- they ever their advisers too and activist defense advisers and when it gets to this point, yeah, they take some other tactics. >> i will say, look, usually what it is is whispering to journaliststrying to get them to carry your water and do the dirty work for you. when they came out with this campaign style ad, it sounds like it is voiced over with the same voice-overs you would see in a donald trump or joe biden ad, that, to me, was a different level, really raising the stakes. >> yeah, bob iger is obviously

pulling all the stops to win the proxy fight. he's getting jamie dimon to come on the record. i've never seen this before, ever, as a ceo of that magnitude coming on the side of another ceo. not sure he probably spoke to nelson peltz first or thoroughly read the plans before opining, but i take that with a grain of salt, but, yeah, they're doing what they can to win this, no doubt about it. >> that's part of the question. what are nelson peltz's plans beyond what we have seen the company do with bob iger back? >> i think nelson -- the interesting things, his plans are not that different than what the company wants to do, get streaming margin betters, growth in the parks, a successful ceo succession. things they're already doing. i think but the key thing is that you can't underestimate the value of having an experienced, dedicated shareholder on the board. someone like nelson peltz who is going to debate in the board room as opposed to defer. when you have a ceo like bob iger who is incredibly

impressive and a great ceo, but you sometimes -- when you're so iconic, you sometimes get a board that is a little obsequious, and it is good to have a board that is going to debate. >> you think it is a good idea? >> i think -- do i want six nelson peltzes on the board, no. but one nelson peltz on the board at a point when it is at suck succession and a key point -- >> what do you think about nelson peltz's record? >> he did great at heinz, great at procter & gamble, at invesco or wendy's as far as the term is not that great relative to benchmarks, but i think that's hard to look at that. so much that goes into something like that. i think you look at the situation here, and i think this is a board that real estately could really could use a shareholder voice. >> i guess bob iger is a big shareholder. a lot of his net worth is

wrapped up in this. i guess the question becomes from the company, and i can understand this to some extent, when you have such a bitter fight, the time and the attention it takes away from management's attention to be launching attacks like this, to be fighting them off, and then how productive is that relationship going to be once you had this scorched earth on both sides? >> first, the -- i think the whole time and attention and distraction, as somebody that has followed activists for so long, it bothers me when bob iger is using the word distraction. this is a shareholder of a company that has been underperforming, that is trying to improve corporate governance and to say that's a distraction, it is kind of pewooh-poohing everything that shareholder -- >> he dropped his proxy attack when bob iger came back, saying i'm in favor of what he's doing, he's come in and made a lot of changes that look similar to what nelson peltz says he wants

done. in the meantime, if you're trying to do that at a key time for the injudustry, i think, an from the outside, from somebody saying do everything you're already doing, that's different. >> but nelson peltz backed off and gave the company time to do what it want doded to do and th stock went back down and that's when he got involved again. as far as him being a distraction on the board, i think if you look at procter & gamble, one of the most contentious proxy fights in the last 20 years, after he got on the board, everyone was friends and they left as friends and procter & gamble ceo has a lot of good things to say about nelson. >> that's an interesting point. >> i see that in activism a lot. >> it is all bluster ahead of time, and then -- >> they're all professionals. bob iger and nelson peltz were friendly before this. it will be fine. it is the whole connection that is wearing bob iger.

>> the promoter connection, what is the concern there? >> there is no secret the relati relationship and i don't think bob iger wants perlmutter in his board room and he thinks he's getting that with nelson peltz. >> you think peltz should get a board seat. do you think he will? >> i don't think he will. i think there is a saying in baseball that every team is going to win 54 games, every team is going to lose 54 games. it is what you do with the other 54 that matters. i think doing the deal with value act, disney got that middle, that other 54 games, by putting james gorman on the board, i think that went a long way with a lot of the people on the fence to come to disney's side. and so i don't think he's going to win this proxy fight, but i think he should. >> ken, thanks for stopping by today. >> thanks for having me. coming up, it is friday -- i mean thursday, feels like friday. thursday is my friday.

>> because it is so exciting to the anticipation of friday. >> further from monday. >> i thought you loved being here. >> i do love being here. that's something you have to enjoy every day. >> i love it. i don't think of friday as a bad day. i think it is sad on a friday. i don't get do this on saturday and sunday. >> you can do other things, i'm sure, that make you feel like you're doing this, right? phone calls and -- >> saturdays are for sleeping in. >> you don't have a -- >> we're going to talk about reports of an investment of up to $2 billion by the saudi investment fund into professional tennis. that is straight ahead. later, former treasury secretary steven mnuchin going to join us here on the "squawk" set. "sawbo w. stn. a.meaer quk x"ill be right back. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.

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welcome back, everybody. stock futures rise as investors await another key inflation

report today. we'll take a look at what's moving in the premarket ahead of that key number that is due at 8:30 eastern time. president biden goes on offense after former president trump's entitlement comments right here on "squawk box." we'll talk about what should be done with programs like social security and medicare. plus, the house clearing a path for a possible ban on tiktok. that bill now goes to the senate, but the question is will it pass there and will tiktok actually be banned. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin with becky quick and joe kernen. a lot going on this morning. we'll tell you what we got in just a moment. look at the futures right now.

still 2 1/2 hours before the market is set to open. if we opened up right now, opening 134 points higher on the dow. s&p 50017 points higher and nasdaq would open 85 points higher. look at treasuries right now, ten-year and two-year, the ten-year note at 4.190%. the two-year at 4.628%. and crypto, which has been a little bit of our signal on maybe perhaps liquidity, but risk on, risk off, bitcoin at almost $73,000. maybe headed back in that direction. ether, $3,967. >> and we got a report from dick's sporting goods, 385 a share, that was 50 cents better than estimates on revenue of $3.88 billion. that was above expectations. same store sales grew 2.8% during the quarter. that was better than the .8 that the street was looking for. the company also raising its

estimates 10% for the full year. and dick's sporting goods sees earnings per share coming in a range of 12.85 to 13.25 a share compared to estimates of $12.90. i was looking in the release, they don't tell us how many goods were stolen at the company, you know,because they do lose -- people come in and steal the from dick's. i'm not going to go into it any further than that. >> shrinkage. >> i said it was stolen. i deliberately said stolen. >> it is not just stolen. it depends where it is in the supply chain. >> right. but, see, that and i immediately check, because we did have a situation -- >> as target pointed out. >> where were you? mac coming in, smash and grab on 5th avenue, 5th and 43rd, glass all over the street. and 5th avenue is a place you would -- >> not expect that necessarily.

>> that's where, again, willie said, that's where you have the high end stores, yeah. >> for more on the markets now, we want to bring in jill carey ball, midcap strategy and senior u.s. equity strategist at bank of america global research. welcome. good to see you. >> thank you. >> there are a lot of people thinking that there is a lot of liquidity in the markets right now, a lot of euphoria and people starting to question are we getting near a tipping point. you are convinced while there may be euphoria in some areas, the whole market is not at a euphoric point right now. so you think there is more room to run. >> that's right. i think our conviction is the market is more likely to go higher than lower from here. we recently raised our s&p 500 year end target to 5400. i think the euphoria in the market is concentrated in pockets. magnificent seven, a.i., some themes that you've seen a little bit more euphoria, we haven't

seen it in the broader market when we look at our sentiment indicators, equity sentiment on wall street in neutral territory when we look at recommended equity allocations, so, you know, i think the -- even though the price to earnings multiple of the market is elevated at this point on most measures that you track, we still think that there could be more upside to the market from here. the market is a lot higher quality, lower leverage than it was to maybe comparing the multiple today to some of the prior decades could be a bit problematic. >> when you're looking at a turn in leadership potentially, or potential rollover from stocks that have done so well, you must think if these other stocks are going to rise up, if there are other leadership groups that take over, that it is against a pretty good economic backdrop. >> right. so our economists just raised their gdp expectations for this year. we think, you know, a lot of the earnings backdrop that we're looking for should be about demand starting to come through, sales recovering a bit this year. we recently raised our earnings

forecast. you're seeing a manufacturing recovery. you look at a lot of the leading indicators of the ism manufacturing gauge. we do think the market can broaden out and when you talk about the pockets of the market that you've seen euphoria, conversely, look at areas like cyclicals and high data stocks, fund managers have been underweight a lot of those areas so they haven't been positioned for this cyclical recovery. they're positioned much more defensively after everyone was looking for recession this year. >> which is why you like value over growth? >> we like value over growth. i think the profit cycle tends to be one of the best indicators there when profits are inflecting, growth is becoming more abundant within the market, you don't need to pay up for expensive growth stocks. i think small and midcaps look relatively well positioned. a lot of the macro indicators, cycle indicators have been bottoming and inflecting. those tend to signal a good backdrop for small and midcaps which do well after you've seen narrow markets like we have seen

last year. >> and that sounds pretty good. and something a lot of investors would sign up for. if you're looking for problems that could potentially pop up with that, if it is a strong economy and things are looking really good, the question has to be does the fed actually cut rates? is it going to inject more liquidity or take its foot off the brake in some way, shape or form? >> i think that's one of the biggest risks, particularly for areas of the market that are more rate sensitive. small and midcaps have about 40% of their debt that is short-term or floating rates. i think if our house expectations are correct, and we start to see rate cuts this year beginning in june, our economist expectation, you know, we still think it is a supportive backdrop. if inflation stays very elevated, or goes higher. and those rate cuts get taken out, that becomes a riskier backdrop for some of the parts of the market that are more tense tiff. >> which means the numbers we're getting this morning are pretty important. we have seen an elevated c p.i.

consumer prices. last month the ppi was hotter than expected. people are writing that off. what happens if the number we get at 8:30 is a little hotter? >> i think we continue to watch the kind of multimonth trend in the inflation numbers. the cpi data we recently saw our economists think is supportive of the rate cuts that they're looking for, three this year, beginning in june. i think monitoring the inflation data is important. i do think for small and midcaps a lot of the parts of the index that are exposed to refinancing risk, some of those have priced in better than others. but i think the -- there are still parts of small and midcaps that look attractive. i think just having screens for, you know, stocks that have high leverage, refinancing risk and excluding those from one's portfolio and focusing on the higher quality stocks, a lot of the cyclical sectors sensitive to the economic pickup could be the areas that make sense to focus on and we think it will be a good year for stock picking

over passive. >> jill, thank you. welcome back. >> thank you. >> this is your first time with us since you were on maternity leave. congratulations. >> thank you. good to be back. coming up, saudi arabia's tennis ambitions in what it could mean for the sport. and later, will tiktok really be banned? jon fortt weighs in on what has been a hot topic this week in washington and on wall street. stay tuned. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. you know doug, ever since switching to workday you've been a real rock star. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing!

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welcome back to "squawk box." reports of up to a $2 billion investment in tennis by the saudis is grabbing the attention of the tennis world, the concerns that the saudis will use the investment as leverage for greater control of the sport like liv golf. for more on all this, want to bring in patrick risch, the director of sports business

program at wash u st. luouis. thank you for joining us. what do you think the big impact of this is going to be and do you think this is just the beginning? >> andrew, this is -- feels in a way like pga liv all over again. it is an interesting phenomenon. look, pif is trying to use their resources to get involved in the sports industry. they have disrupted golf. now you got a situation where if we take pif out of this, the tennis industry is such that, look it very confusing, the scheduling is confusing, there wants to be -- if you look at the top tournaments in tennis, men, women are playing in the same tournament. ironically i reached out for this interview, i'm in indian wells for this week's tournament and these events where the men and women are playing at the same tournament are phenomenal events. there are financial issues, especially on the women's side. if you look at the most recent numbers, about 180 million in

revenue generated in the men's tour, and about half of that in the women's tour as of 2021. you bring in pif and, boy, does it really change the dynamic. at the end of the day, like some of the golfers, more money, less time on the course, more time, leisure time, you can see where some of these players would be accepting and embracing of that. >> do you think that they will -- that the saudis, though, are trying to take over the u.s. open eventually and the french open and australia -- the big four? >> andrew, i don't think that's going to happen, just as in the golf world where you see masters, british open, the u.s. open, they're going to stand their ground. they are solid entities financially on their own, their brands are too strong. i don't see the french open, the australian open, the u.s. open, wimbledon going down that road. however, again, there is so many parallels here, if you got this money coming in, and i know that especially in the women's tennis

tour, with some of the issues, major issues, with respect to discrimination, with respect to the way the saudis are treating the lgbtq community, there can be some issues there. but, andrew, here in indian wells this week, i heard some interesting things from people on the ground where i have been told a large majority of the women would actually support investments from the saudis, thinking they can make a difference. now that could be part of the reason, or cynically it could be going back to jon rahms of the world, the golf world, maybe they just want more resources and not have to play as much. >> right. patrick, there is a sense and still a question about whether this is some kind of sports washing, that saudi, given some of the human rights issues and other things, i don't know where you think saudi now lives in the public consciousness of the american people, of the audience for tennis, of the audience for golf, of the audience for other sports and how folks think about

saudi. obviously i think from a governmental perspective, we have a good relationship with saudi, irrespective of some of the other issues. but nonetheless, there is this -- this zeitgeist, or is there, maybe there isn't? >> we live in a bifurcated world. at the end of the day, saudis are making a wise, for them, a wise investment. they realize the global popularity of sport and like any company that invests in sports for that reason, it is a shrewd investment. it is a global sports, tennis and golf, are global sports. it attracts young interested people. so we understand why they are doing it. maybe they are trying to make a change. i think going back to what i heard about where some of the women tennis players are coming from, they are okay with the investment if they can be part of the change agency that is taking place over there. if that can happen. now, again, we don't know if that's going to happen. but if that's part of the reason

why the saudis are making these investments to try to create a change in image, and do we actually see change down the road, i think only until then can we look back on all of what is going on, the disruption in golf, now the disruption in tennis and say, these investments are actually changing the brand perception of what is going on in saudi arabia. >> what do you think needs to happen more broadly to tennis? you're at indian wells, do you need to see tennis on netflix, more documentaries, like, what has to change to actually take tennis to the next place? >> i do think that needs to be more events where you get the men and women competing at the same event. the grand slams, by far, the most popular events in tennis, and part of that great history, legacy, but an event here at indian wells where you have the best men's and women's players in the world, few events, masters 1,000 events, where that's going on. having more of those -- the proposal out there, 10 to 12 of

those events per year, elevates the sport. it also just -- again, for the common fan, very confusing. you have all these different tournaments going on at the same time throughout the year, and they can just be a little bit confusing as to where you're going to capture your most favorite players. >> cincinnati is a good one too. indian wells -- >> you're right. you're right, joe. >> i know exactly where that is out in indian wells. what i don't know is where you are. is that an airbnb? you don't have a house in indian wells to go out there, do you? there is pictures -- what is that? is that an airbnb? >> it is just very good family friends, joe. very good family friends. i'm very fortunate. >> in indian wells? >> yes. >> nice. nice. i wondered, who are you, joe biden? how you to get these really nice houses? amazing. >> thank you. thank you for waking up early too. appreciate it. >> thanks, all. when we come back, stocks on the move in the premarket.

the futures this morning actually picking up a little steam. now got the dow futures -- what, that's different than the one i'm looking at here. which one is right? >> hmm. yeah. >> different. >> well, dow futures are up by better than 130 points. s&p futures up by better than 16 points. the nasdaq futures up by better than 78 points. we'll continue to keep an eye on this as we get closer to the 8:30 hour. >> announcer: time now for aflac's trivia question. big al is the mascot for what university? the answer when "squawk box" returns. - nostril! uh-uh... bill! uh-huh... - hip-hop! - limping! mmhmm! medical bills! uh-huh! - pancakes! - cash! who pays you cash when you have medical bills? grrr! no idea. [tapping] gap! the gap left by health insurance? who pays cash to help close that gap? aflac! oh, aflac!

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the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. >> announcer: and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. big al is the mascot for what university? the answer, university of alabama. although the elephant was the unofficial mascot since the 1930s, the big al costume wasn't officially worn until the 1980s. earnings alert on dollar general. earnings came in at $1.83. that was on revenue of $9.86

billion which was also a beat. same store sales up by 0.7%, the street was looking for a drop of 1%. for the full year, dollar general expects earnings in the range of $6.80 to $7.55. the strategy was at the high end of that, $7.42. you had same store sales between 2 and 2.7% and that's better than the street's expectations of 1.1% for the estimate. as a result, you see the stock up by 5.7%. surprise announcement from under armour that took place yesterday. the company's ceo is stepping down, just after a little over a year. the founder will be returning as the company's ceo, that's happening on april 1st. linnartz will stay on as a adviser through the end of april. plank will hand over the chair position to mohamed el-erian, someone this program knows very well, chief economic adviser at allianz.

shares are down about 17% since she took over as ceo in february of 2023. shares of ab inbev falling after altria announced it would sell just over 18% of its stake in the brewer for as much as $2.2 billion. as it looks to return more cash to shareholders. altria owns 10% of the beermaker. ab inbev alsoagreed to repurchase $200 million of shares directly from altria when the offering is completed the ceo there described it as an opportunistic transaction that realizes a portion of the substantial return on our long-term investment. let's get to dom chu, who has been -- couldn't find you, dom, you were out smoking beer and smoking cigarettes. >> that's what my -- my vices out there this early thiin the morning. >> i'm kidding. you don't do that. >> no. not this early.

i'm going to start things off this morning with a couple of analyst calls, joe, as we talk about my vices out there. we'll start with an analyst call on banking giant citigroup, the shares higher by 1.5% on 40,000 shares of premarket volume. this is helped along by analysts at golden man sachs who upgrade that. they cited amongst other things citi's capacity for possibly expanding share buybacks down the line and being able to grow revenues and cut expenses simultaneously. so those positive comments giving citigroup a rise by 1.5%. another one to watch, shares of robinhood now, which are higher by roughly 11%, almost 12%. nearly 400,000 shares of premarket volume. now, after the bell yesterday, the retail brokerage company reported that assets under custody at the end of last month grew by 16% to $118.7 billion. that's a big deal, maybe the return and resurgence of retail

trading. meanwhile, analysts at bernstein have newly initiated coverage of robinhood with outperform rating and that is thanks in part to the rise in crypto interest and trading which could power some results in the future. so those robinhood shares up by nearly is12%. if you want to know more about the citi, goldman call and the robinhood bernstein call out there, just head over to cnbc pro, where subscribers can check out commentary and more in depth analysis of the big analyst calls, joe. i'll send things back over to you and, no, i'm not going to have any nicotine or alcohol in the next several hours. >> oh, that clears things up. several hours, 7:25, that could be 9:25. >> i guess it is 5:00 somewhere. >> that's right. thanks, dom. coming up, president biden hitting back at former president donald trump on entitlements. we're going to debate whether to cut or strengthen programs like social security and medicare next. and at the top of the hour,

former treasury secretary steven mnuchin will join us. anjabestd red rnein will be our guest. "squawk box" is coming right back. the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo

welcome back to "squawk box." live look at manhattan's beautiful sky line, the sun is just coming up now. you can look at the futures, sun up on the futures as well, dow looks like it would open up 177 points higher, nasdaq, 81 points, the s&p 500 up about 19 points. got to see how this works out here, because earlier this week president trump talked about cutting entitlements, which he did not do. so we're playing right into the narrative. he said there is things that can be cut, if you listen to the entire -- and the campaign immediately responded and said that it is not -- i wish he had said that. i wish someone would at least address it, but he did not. we're going to run this anyway and mislead you. >> there is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms

of cutting and in terms of also the theft and the bad management of entitlements, tremendous bad management of entitlements, tremendous amounts of things, numbers of things you can do. >> and president biden was quick to respond and actually big -- it was scary, 35 million followers and there is my picture with -- there it is. thanks. thanks, president. saying and they cut off what you just heard right at -- there are many things to cut. so, and it is not, like, both camps don't do this because when we had -- remember when we had president biden on, andrew, actually before, and he said i'm going to be joe biden. he said i'm going to be joe biden. that's who i'm going to be for the campaign. the right went crazy, sean hannity, all of them, knew, because i tweeted, that he said i'm going to be joe biden.

they all put i'm going to beat joe biden, as if he didn't know who he was running against. so, both sides do this. it makes me kind of ill. and in this case, i wish -- >> before you get to the a.i. implications of any of this -- >> before it even happens, people are already doing it. >> i wish he had said, yeah, we're going to means test, we're going to do this, we're going to do this, we need to, it is unus is tunsustainable, i wish he ha, but he didn't, so the whole debate makes no sense. anyway, who is on, president biden not on my watch to something he didn't say anyway. joining us to discuss on whether cutting entitlements or reining in taxes makes it better for the american people, mick mulvaney, and john hope ryan, operation hope founder, cheryairman and c also cnbc contributor, let's pretend someone was -- neither one of these guys, neither one of these guys are talking about doing it, do you think we should

do something about entitlements? mick? >> joe, watch andrew's head explode as i say this, what he said on your show was absolutely right. explain that very quickly. the budget that we did together in 2018 was the largest reduction in mandatory spending, what some people call entitlements, in history. it just did not touch regular medicare or regular social security. the quickest example i can give, huge cuts to social security disability income, not what most people think of when they think of old age retirement within social security. trump on this point is actually right. there is a lot of entitlement spending reduction you can do before you start having to get to the social security and medicare. those are the big numbers going forward. there is no question. but our argument is if you can't cut the easy stuff, you to think you can cut the hard stuff? >> my head is not exploding. as you know, or may not know, i think we need to, and i think we need to specifically means test. so -- >> and we don't -- >> one man's view.

>> and, john, i hope people say it is not an entitlement, it was paid in for your entire life, do you want -- i think -- i probably am doing well enough, john, to not need social security. but i remember good old ace greenburg, we asked him when he was still around, no way, he had hundreds of millions of dollars, no way he was going to give up social security, john. >> i mean, look, mick and i actually agree on the substance here that there are areas where you can tighten up. if you can find ways to cut, it is not complicated. if somebody doesn't need it, give it up, they shouldn't have to be required to be told it is not available to them. by the way, if you live in a neighborhood, you live to 61 years old. 61. if you live -- you have a similar credit score, you live to 81.

operational use data by credit score and found there is a 20-year delta. unfortunately making it to social security in communities that are struggling and need this the most. clearly if there is waste, we should cut it. but also this sort of perception also that the richer the problem, and they're not paying taxes, it is a different issue, that's also not true. we're saying both parties are playing a bit of a game with these sort of issues of who we're going to blame and where the problem is, as you know, this is 10% of entitlements are, you know, that we call traditionally the poor. you can't cut yourself out of this. got to grow yourself out of this. that's what i'm talking about, we are four entities here and none of them are us. china, russia, iran and north korea. it is war. they want us to -- we got to come together and grow the

economy. small business creation. this is where it should be invested in. infrastructure human capital, a.i., new jobs, entrepreneurship, financial literacy, education for all. we got to grow gdp and that will, i think, pay for the kind of compassion america should have for those who actually need it. >> john, okay, back to mick for a second, because if you do the math, mick, we know about nondiscretionary versus discretionary. and we saw in the president's budget if you do the math on that, we're going to stay at, like, 110% debt to gdp for the near term in 20, 30 years from now, 130, 140, totally unsustainable because not -- not because of what john is talking about, education and things, we want to spend money on, but because of the defendant service and because of the entitlements which we have.

so, we're not going to be able to do anything else if we don't fix this. >> and you have to fix it. keep in mind, not a lot of folks are aware of this, $34 trillion that we currently have in federal debt right now, not a single dollar of that, not dollar one is attributable to social security. social security is liquid, not allowed to borrow money anyway, has not contributed to the debt yet. all these difficulties we have are without social security actually adding it that debt. you're right, we have to do something, trump knows it, biden knows it, both afraid to talk about it because it is not popular right now. this is sort of the economic version of -- the entitled version of populism. biden's mission is soak the rich. trump's message is own the lives, but no one wants to talk about boring things like actuarial solvency of social security. they both know they have do it, but no one wants to do it. >> trump didn't even say it and

yet immediately you had the people that run biden's -- president biden's twitter account immediately just conflate it and said he did say it and then attack it. so no one is going to touch that third rail. no one is going to touch that third rail. even when you don't touch it, you get zapped, john. >> can we remember, i need mick to correct me if he thinks i'm wrong here, mick is the budget -- >> he will. >> funny. we have been here before. this is world war ii literally the debt to income ratio, the debt to income, was about the same, coming out of world war ii. it was atrocious levels. but america surged into reinvestment, you had the gi bill, which gave every -- mostly white person by the way, new home, education, job for the future, training for jobs for the future, call that entitlement if you want, government subsidy, it created what we know is a white middle class, the middle class, which

benefited mostly -- not a racial comment, just simply saying it is the math, it is those who benefited. but the debt ratio was about the same to income. and look at what happened. we understood where we were, we hit the gas on the right things and we grew right out of it. we were right there again. i wouldn't be despaired over where we are. i would be focused on what is going to get us out of this. mick? >> john's not wrong whifith the history, not wrong with the math. we have been doing that for the last 40 dwreer 40 years. it is already there. i get the argument, john, but we're already $34 trillion in debt. talking about adding it now to try and get out of it. borrowing more to solve the problem you're in. i don't think that's really the answer here. go back to the issue of entitlements, social security is relatively easy to fix. only a couple of levers you can deal with the benefits, means testing, the tax rates and so forth.

medicare is the one that is really difficult because that's going to require a cultural change. at some point it will require people to tell you, look, you can't have that hip re pplaceme and that's a difficult conversation for the country to have. >> with all due respect, a little thing called the pandemic that we haven't seen in 125 years that added $6 trillion, $7 trillion and with a t in front of it, and we ran through that pretty well. this president, i'll give him credit, pushed through that, pretty well, and we have a stable bones economy. the economy lahas really good bones and that i can talk about with confidence, as a small business owner. i feel confident for the future. my clients on balance and feel confident about the future. that's amazing we did that. so i do believe it is different than world war ii. i don't want to tell the 86-year-old woman she's not getting a hip replacement.

we can do better. we're the only economy in the world growing. we're the only economy growing. >> i don't disagree with that. if you do that, the taxes have to go up on medicare. they just do. if you want to continue to pay for that stuff, you have to have money to pay for it. or it is more taxes. if you spend more -- if you spend more, you to tax more. that's what it comes down to. >> mick, mr. budget, you saw the bu budget, i know it is not going anywhere, but it is kind of staggering because, you know, there is supposedly a -- if he were able to get through some of the tax increases and if it didn't hurt the economy, it would cut the deficit by $3 trillion or so. but not through the cutting spending. there is really -- we're adding to the spending that we're already out of control on. we're just adding to it and then

raising taxes to try to pay for it. but -- >> joe, what cuts through the mumbo jumbo, every administration can look at the long-term projections from the c bo bo or the omb and that's what biden has done here. what you do is look at the proposals for new revenues versus the proposals for new spending. and the way it works out is there are $6 trillion worth of new taxes, and $3 trillion worth of new spending. which means you're adding -- you're adding to what the government is spending right now. so that's how they propose to get out of it. even then, when taxes go up, they're spending more, not using that money to pay down the deficit. >> john? >> if we're talking about spending on things like the infrastructure bill, as you know, mick, we have one of the worst infrastructures as a nation to any nation in comparison in the world and we're the leading economy in the

world. if that's what's adding to it, i say that's a good investment. there is good debt and bad debt. and it is no billionaire that came that way without good debt and no country that grew without good debt. i think we need to have a more intelligent conversation, you're always having one, mick, i'm not saying you're not, what is investment and what is spend. >> john is right on that. different kinds of debt, we prioritize letting people keep their own money was the best kind of debt, infrastructure was the next best. >> when the government starts talking about investment, rather than spending, john, it wouldn't be good if it was, like, infrastructure and actually investment, they call everything, the government, now, you know, now we hear that -- what was it we were calling --

we were calling infrastructure, like, child care, they were calling that -- when you call everything an investment, and everything -- it just -- it is out of control. it is out of control. >> one of the problems that we're financially it lit illite. people are living paycheck to paycheck. so they know, they're talking to people who may not understand all these complicated concepts and so we're not dumbing it down, we're talking in a way that they think that reaches the average american. i hope we're not misleading when we're doing that. i do believe, joe, the human capital is infrastructure investment if you do it smartly. you got the best -- >> you don't need to call it that, though. we're thinking bridges and roads. we got to run. thanks. maybe well spent, but just call it what it is.

thanks, mick and john. >> thank you. when we come back, the house passing a bill that would force tiktok to be sold or be banned. but, will it really make its way into law? cnbc's jon fortt weighs in. let's check out the futures ahead of the up coming inflation data we have this morning. ppi at 8:30. the dow futures up by 170 points. s&p futures up by 17. the nasdaq up by 76. we will be back with much more right after this. ut. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over!

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senate. here to weigh in. what do you think? jon fortt? >> yes. tiktok should be sold. talking about it three and a half years ago on my second "on the other hand" i argued then president trump forced to get tiktok shut down. he was right. impossible to know how much visibility china has into the vast trove of data in habits and interests of americans, but we know the chinese government likes prevailing billions using the information to support the communist agenda. is it too broad? the house bill is structured the ban rule applied only to ads like tiktok influenced or controls by a foreign adversaries specified under section 4872d-2 of 10 u.s. code covering four countries. north korea, russia, iran and china. because the bill targets and existing category of adversaries we don't have to worry about a

precedent that muddies trade relationships and why it should been law. andrew andrew? >> but is this what lawmakers should be focusing on more broadly? >> well, andrew, "on the other hand" it's a terrible idea. funny we are talking about this on "squawk box." monday presidential candidate trump saying shutting downtick tok would only empower facebook. trump was right -- this time. we agree china is a dangerous foreign adversaries, influence over our discourse is a serious threat and why this legal tiktok crackdown is a bit of a farce. even if it passes and president biden signs it, 165 days to file a legal challenge. meanwhile, this tiktok stuff is all a red herring. last week a congressional investigation found mysterious communications equipment install and china-made cranes that tower over u.s. ports. a great advantage to spy on or

disrupt the ports. there are other steps to take. as it stands, the bill is more about election year grandstanding than solutions. >> mm. >> isn't u.s. tiktok data stored on servers? a big question what influence does the chinese really have? >> it is. i wonder how easy to ex-fill tex-fill -- exfiltrate that amount of data? the algorithm used to surface videos to people. >> that's outside of it? >> yes. >> you say stories. i've not seen the stories. you're aware of stories where the chinese are trying to take the data from project texas? >> in the past. in the past. >> that -- there are? >> yeah. i mean, i could be -- could be wrong about that. a couple years ago. >> no. i havehave not seen. issue with journalists and

whatnot. i have yet to see. >> i'll look it up. >> see real evidence. no side. no dog in this hunt or race or whatever. >> not a tiktok >> i go on as a lurker. >> what is it called? >> a lurker. >> do we have prima facie evidence the chinese used this stuff, tried to influence the company or anything like it? invariably we're told 100 time as day it hasn't. that's perspective. perspective. >> what if all they were doing gathering info haven't use it but they have it and it's valuable. >> have it. sure. i'm not sure they have it. >> hard to know. one of those edward snowden moments. right? on this kind of thing. >> i want you to do the next "on the other hand" whether the second thing you talk about is always the one you really believe. >> no. it's not. i try to intentionally switch

them up. trying to make the second. >> not saying, yes, it is, but i don't want anybody to know so i'm saying, no, it's not. >> trying to make the second one the argument that people are less likely to expect. >> i must just be kind of a simpleton. as people know. i always -- the one that's freshest in my mind is the one that you always come in on. that one, what you said. you believe the second one. >> i'm not sure i believe the second one. i'm not sure i believe the second. >> on the other hand. >> usually, usually i go in thinking that the first one -- is the one that's going to be easier to knock down. by the time -- >> yeah. >> by the time i get to the second, maybe i need to switch these. >> usually down on it, choose the second. >> i did this at 2:00 a.m. >> nice to see you. check out the newsletter. a qr code on the screen. >> yes, there is.

cnbc.com, the full text both arguments and you can share. thanks for the assist there. march madness. >> sounds like up at 2:00 a.m. in the morning. >> that's what happened. forgot to toss the newsletter. >> thank you. state of the economy, still to come. presidential election and much more for former treasury wl rhtac.teven mnuchin weilbeig bk. maybe rich is lesst reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

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divestment actually look like? getting into that following yesterday's house vote. all that and more as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. and u.s. equity futures at this hour indicated, you can see, up sharply. 173 points right now. nasdaq indicated up as well. treasury yields as we've seen -- if only a real expert here on treasuries. someone who actually you know, secretary -- you're going to intro -- >> we've got him. >> you came in i looked at you, oh, hey!

i was distracted and we feel we know this gentleman. >> because we do. former treasury secretary steven mnuchin is here joining us now. there is so much to talk about. the markets, inflation, white house's new budget plan. tiktok. just closed the infusion deal for new york community bank deal, former treasury secretary sfo founder and partner of liberty strategic capital. start with tiktok. whether it ho should be banned, divested or otherwise. if it is divested who may be a potential buyer? >> i was treasury secretary i chaired cfius and approved and i had president trump sign an order that tiktok had to be sold, and i continue to believe that. so i think the legislation should pass, and i think it should be sold. i understand the technologist. it's a great business and i'm going to put together a group to buy tiktok. >> you're trying to buy tiktok.

i am. it should be owned by u.s. business, u.s. businesses. there's no way the chinese would ever let a u.s. company own something like this in china. >> have you already put a gr together? >> i'm working on it. spoke to a bunch of people hoomp. >> who would be a part of your group? >> i can't tell you that. a combination. no one investor controlling this, and issue is all about the technology. this needs to be controlled by u.s. business a. practical question. if you talked to folks inside the world of tiktok, have you, the world themselves. they could suggest it is almost impossible within a six-month time period to truly divest it to another group that frankly isn't a meta or a google, if you will? because the data for the users is in the u.s., but the algorithm and so much of the other operations are outside of

the u.s. now that you studied this business several years ago, i imagine you continue to, how you would actually operationally do it? >> let me first say, i don't think this should be controlled by any of the big u.s. tech companies. i think there could be antitrust issues on that, and something that's independent so we have a real competitive, and users love it. it shouldn't be shut down. the technology, i won't go into all the details, but the app needs to be rebuilt in the u.s. it needs to be u.s. technology. i think there's a lot that can be done in six months, but i would work closely with the u.s. and with china. >> do you think the bill would need rewritten by the senate effectively to give you more than six months? is it a timing issue, do you think? >> i think a lot can be done in six months. it may take a little longer, but i think the bigger issue, it shouldn't be controlled by the chinese. it is an issue for this to be on everybody's phone. >> explain why. what are the reasons?

>> certainly things i can talk about that are obvious and certain things i can't talk about i had access to. say when you have this app on everybody's phone it has the ability to collect and awful lot of data. >> can i ask a question about that, though. the thing i think nobody knows. and you may be one of the few people who does. do you believe that the data that is collected today, both data collected and potentially certain things pushed to the users, is being influenced and directed by the chinese government today, or do you look at this as a prospective national security threat? meaning it has not been putting into practice in any meaningful way right now, but the worry is that one day it could? which is it? >> i'm not going to comment on what's today, but i will comment. there's no question that on a forward basis they have both the ability to influence the data

and they have the ability to collect data, which is probably the bigger concern. >> you're not going to comment on today, because you can't do that without giving away things you might know others wouldn't? >> that's true and the issue today. again, i think the focus should be, it should be sold. it should be controlled by a u.s. business. it's a great company. it would be terrible if it would shut down. lots of users use this and we need competitor to facebook and instagram and youtube. >> to the extend we care what do you think it will do to the relationship in china? between the u.s. and china? to the extent i try to put myself in shoes of others to try to think through implications. think about a chinese entrepreneur, builds something. builds something pretty great. if you don't think the chinese government has already used it, which is an interesting question, and it could be used perspectively, what does that say about how we as a country should operate? and we are different than china,

hopefully. >> a cfius order in effect to sell this. biden put a pause on it. it's in effect. i think a general bipartisan agreement in a shouldn't be controlled by the chinese. i think the chinese will be fine selling it so long as there's not a technology transfer along the way. and that's the art of the possible. >> why -- why do you think president trump is now saying he signed that cfius bill, the cfius ruling beforehand? why do you think he's now saying that he doesn't think tiktok should be sold or shut down? >> i think he doesn't want it shut down, because he's concerned about the power that that would create for facebook. i believe he would support a sale. he did support a sale, you know. i'll call him up later and ask him. but i think the answer d-- >> did you speak to him? >> i haven't this week.

i think he would support a sale. >> appreciate his perspective. doesn't want one more powerful than the other. if is really is a national security risk, i keep asking the question, a red line a hard line. wouldn't matter whether you care weather facebook or somebody else would get more power if you actually believed this was a true and present national security threat? >> times you have seen, you know, bezos and -- times it almost looks personal sometimes with the former president and everybody's got their own -- he might -- >> a rationalization defensive of the president's thinking? >> no, it's not. saying you would 234normally, we it off, he's got it out for zuckerberg. >> that may be true. >> that may be true. >> out for zuckerberg, is that problematic? >> national security -- maybe. take as back seat to a personal grudge. bigger issue i do believe it's a natural security threat and wouldn't have taken it to the

president when i did with the cfius order and i continue to believe it is today. so hopefully we get to a good outcome, don't shut it down. lots of people love the business. it's a great business and hopefully can find a solution china will allow it to be sold without a technology transfer. >> do youtry president trump would rather see it, chinese say we're not going to sell it. how would he come down on this? if he doesn't want it shut down but would like to see it potentially brought by a group of american investors, where would we go? >> i'm not going to xspeculate. i'm call him later and ask. i think it should be sold. chinese will agree, i think, as long as there's no transfer of their critical technology which i don't think we need in the u.s. >> a different question. we talk about who might join a former president trump, in office, if in fact he were to win. if you were going to be teaming

up with others to invest in this and just teamed up to buy a big stake in a bank, do you have any expect, ambition, plan or otherwise, what are you telling investors, if the president called you and said, hey, love to have you back in my administration in in capacity? >> i'm telling investors i'm focused on my business and very busy. >> how unhappy would it be if buying up this and say actually i got to go. i'm going to do this other thing? >> my plan is to stay in the business. i'm focused on things, excited about new york community bank and what we did there. i'm now going to try to put together a group to put together a tiktok. i have a lot to do. >> we talk about entitlements, can we? >> absolutely. >> not getting into it just had a -- neither candidate will even touch the third rail. president biden or former president trump. do you think that president trump could get elected if he said he was going to, what we accused him of saying a couple

minutes ago, if he actually did say i will look at means testing, ways of reforming medicare, medicaid, social security so that we can somehow bring it into, 20 years from now, it will be solvent. make the hard choices we have to do? have you told him to do that? >> i haven't spoken to him about it recently. let me tell you what i think. >> okay. >> you know, again, when i was treasury secretary i had a big title. i was managing trustee of the social security trust fund and i had to put out the report. i believe the current report says that it's going to run out of money in about ten years. so i think there needs to be a bipartisan commission in congress. this needs to be led by congress. and we need to make sure that the current recipients of social security are protected, but we also need to look at a scenario in social security that they don't go broke. dealing with the future participants. so there has to be a bipartisan solution.

i think it's probably not led by either one of the presidents, but there's no reason congress can't start working on this now. so after the election, this can be dealt with. >> neither -- so you acknowledge neither president -- actually they were both president. rarely get to say that. so neither candidate will say that prior to the election, because they can't? >> i'm not going -- whether they do or don't, that's up to them. >> you think they should but -- don't hold our breath? >> i think there needs to be a bipartisan commission. because this is going to run out of money. so this is not something that's a theoretical discussion. >> and can't get either side to stay? say it first? >> just got a big group together, tiktok. passing this in the house overwhelmingly. i hope schumer brings this up right away, because, you know, there are issues that are -- >> you think -- >> totally -- >> looked at the business.

by the way, i want to go back to tiktok for a second. >> yeah. >> how much do you think the company is worth? and, also, given the fact one thing we lived the company doesn't make money right now. still a money-losing strategy? >> i wouldn't be right to say how much i think to buy it. it's worth a lot of money, let me just say, over/under number? >> solved, technology transfer. if we can figure out way to solve that, which i think we can, i think the price is some large amount of money up front and a big earn-out. right. the business my understanding does not make money today. >> does that require rollover of the current investing group into your group? >> i have spoke to some existing

investors and propose they roller to u.s. investor and my guess is they would. >> you guess? they would be onboard and support it? >> and general atlantic, perhaps. >> perhaps. >> what about jeffrey yass. >> not investors by investor but give them an option to roll over. i assume they would want that and bringing in other investors. no one would own more than 10% of it. >> how much competition will you have for this asset, do you think? we've heard bobby kotick and others might want to put together -- perhaps working with you? >> let me just say. the issue right now is really who can figure out a way to solve the concerns of the u.s. and china, to transfer this without taking what they believe is critical technology. that's really what needs to solved. >> i wonder if you will end up

being a diplomat in all this. convincing the chinese this is good for them too. a prospect of chinese saying we're not doing this. shut the whole thing down. >> they've said in the past. previous proposals they've blocked because not being happy about the technology transfer. and i would have to convince them and the u.s. government there is a way to do this. >> how important to bring in other tech companies or other companies, the last time that you went about even working with the private sector, when you were from the public sector, was walmart. wellcome walmart nvolved, microsoft as well. >> clearly i would approach some tech companies. i wouldn't approach tech companies that have competitive products, because i think it's important this is independent and i wouldn't let any tech company control this. so nobody would have more than 10% control. >> compare that opportunity to tiktok opportunity, with the opportunity at new york bancorp?

>> new york community bank is a lot easier. it's a, a lot easier to get done. i was there yesterday. i'm going see the private bank today. you know, it's a top 20 bank. we put up a lot of capital, which will stabilize the business. brought in joseph ceo and i think a great turnaround. >> let me ask you a very different question, put your treasury secretary hat on a second. how do you think the economy's actually going? >> i'm worried about the economy. so we're in a situation where obviously the fed is on hold. you know, i agree that the fed needs to see continued data. the last thing we want them to do is lower interest rates and not control inflation. but even if the fed lowers rates to 3.5% i think we're going to see ten-year treasurys in 4 to 4.5 range a long time. >> did you read this? 99- -- used to be 4. an example where it is.

things seem like they are 40 or 50% higher than three years ago. good as the economy seems to be that people that follow it. >> my question, it has -- ask the former secretary about this. if you had been the secretary of the treasury for this administration, current administration, is there something you think you could have done and done better that would have changed the outcome in a material way? meaning, i think a lot of economists look at this and think actually things are pretty -- on a relative basis, compared to where they started the ball game, where we are today they go, actually, that's a pretty great outcome. looking relative, again, to the rest of the world and recognizing that the federal reserve plays a huge role in all of these things? >> let me say i agree with your comment. inflation comes down, priceless stop at much higher levels, which is a real affordability issue. but i miean, the simple answer, too much government spending's look back in covid, we needed to do the first two bills or there

would have been a world wwide depression. shouldn't have done the last trillion in hindsight and shouldn't have been the continued multi-trillion dollar spending afterwards. the deficit is out of control. debt is too high. we had a debt pre-covid that were beginning to pay down. >> do you think that attacking those issues would have had an impact on inflation? >> absolutely. government spending caused inflation. it started in covid, and it continued on with -- >> gasoline still up 50% higher, and if your paycheck is still below, in real terms, where it was three years ago, if you're -- it is. average weekly earnings are still below before biden came n. worried about -- >> what are you going to do? don't make as much money! >> worries about a stagflation situation? >> i am. jamie talked about that snare joe. what we're not -- not oustt of e

woods yet. high interest rates, this period. the economy will slow down and something we have to carefully watch. >> mr. secretary, thank you -- >> still -- speaking like a treasury secretary. amazing. you can't get rid of it. do you support a strong dollar? >> i support a stable dollar. >> thank you for joining us. thank you for breaking news you're looking at this and come on back and keep us informed what this bid might look like. >> thank you. >> a politician. doesn't want to say anymore. >> godfather. >> pull me back in. godfather iii. it's going to happen. when we come back breaking ppi inflation data and going inside president biden's more than $7 trillion budget plan. council of economics chair jared bernstein joins us. "squawk box" will be right back.

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for a closer look at president biden's budget plan and possible impact only the deficit and taxes we bring in council of economic advisers chair jared bernstein. good to have you on the show always. call you -- i guess kind of a mr. chairman at this point, too. sounds pretty good. doesn't it? >> it has a nice ring to it. i'll agree with you there. >> jared, this is a lot of times, we see a budget, and we

know that it is sort of a ranking of a president's priorities on where he wants to go, and not necessarily something that is going to happen, but there are some things in, as an economist, in the budget, it's not due to this current budget but because of our fiscal situation and long-term debt situation there are scary numbers there. i'm wondering if you're -- if you have a way that we can grow out of some of these issues? i'm talking about the $34 trillion debt and the looming entitlement issues we have. is it addressed, in your view, effectively in his budget? >> i think it is and i can give you some numbers to, i think, support that view. i mean, i like the way you teed this up in terms of growth. one of the key concepts of the budget is investing in the american people. obviously, this is a project that is well under way. standing up domestic production

of semiconductors. domestic production of electric vehicles, of batteries. that kind of investment along with a very strong labor market, 15 million jobs since this president got here, rising real wages now for ten months running. that helps on the consumer side of the economy. that's about 70%. then add in investment, and you've got a lot of the shooting nuts right there. that one of the reasons why debt s service in this budget, real net interest as a share of the growing economy stays quite low. around 1, 1.5% range. one of the best ways to achieve fiscal stability regardless of the other three deficit reduction also robust in this budget 3. >> assuming you got the taxes enacted and also assuming that the economic growth staid within

the range of where the projections are, but the spending doesn't really come down. just fractionally. we have a deficit this year, i think it's what? $1.8 or so and talking about -- and that, a lot of people criticize it, because it's almost still emergency levels. almost pandemic levels. you're only coming down just fractionally from that. why spend so much? why not do both? raise taxes, just cut some of the spending more? jared? >> talk a little about that. first of all, in terms of d deficit reduction, the deficit fell about a trillion since president biden took office. >> from pandemic troubles. say that. >> yep. i was about to say that! give me a chance. part of that was pandemic measures running down, but also part of that was the strong economic growth generating very robust revenues in '21 and '22. and then, of course, the

president helped legislate through the fiscal responsibility act another trillion of deficit reduction. that's on the books. the inflation reduction act more than pays for itself. that's on the books. and then if you look at the proposals in the budget to cut spending, one area that's probably been underappreciated is in health care. lower prescription drug costs. again, in the inflation reduction act you had reduced, finally, finally after decades of trying, this president managed to legislate against big pharma in terms of using medicare's buying power to lower cost of prescription drugs. this budget proposes increasing that formulary, that list of drug wes negotiate over by a factor of five. that's going to be really important in future cost reduction, and then, of course, you mentioned. raising revenues. helps get us to that $3 trillion of deficit reduction. so look, that's moving strongly in the right direction. it's a strong contrast to our opponents who talk about cutting

taxes further, particularly on the wealthy, which we see as very counterproductive in this space. >> it almost -- seems like both sides are willing to look at a debt to gdp of over 100%, and unless something is done it's never coming down, jared. the way, i guess, republicans think they're going to do it by growing out of it and you hear the same old thing that you don't want to raise taxes. you want to leave money in the private sector. so we get more growth. somehow we grow our way out of it. i don't know if that works, or whether your method's going to work but i don't think either method addresses it by 2040 or '50. we're going to be at 150% of debt to gdp and interest will be so high we can't dough any of t things -- go ahead. >> look. if you actually look at our budget, especially if you

compare it to some of the trajectories of debt in, say, cbo or other earlier baselines from us, you see that debt to gdp sells at around 106% of gdp. now, you know, that may be too high for you, but the fact is that it's moving in the right direction relative to the baselines i just cited. how do we get there? we stop digging, which is pretty important. and we have some very clearly elaborated measures to move towards a more fiscally sustainable path. by the way, one way we measure that looking how much we have to pay to service our debt. that stays in this budget well within historical realms 1.5% gdp. if you unpack the numbers we're doing precisely what you've said on both fronts. both trying to raise revenue. we're trying to, i should say three fronts. we're proposing ambitious, highly pregive revenue.

no one under 5k is touched. strong growth agenda, building on progress made thus far and then three, cutting costs where there's excess. >> i guess it's -- it's not quite spring yet. look forward to that. appreciate -- see you soon. >> good talking to you, joe. >> good talking to you, jared. when we come back, we do have breaking ppi inflation data. that's next when "squawk box" comes right back. ah, these guys are intense. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right?

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all right. welcome back, everybody. rick santelli is standing by with the data we've been waiting for. it's ppi. people waiting to see. last inflation number before next week. rick, take it away. >> absolutely. let's start out with ppi then go to retail sales. february ppi headline number expected to be up 0.3%. zoom, zoom, zoom. up double. up 0.6%. that would be the hottest going back to what equals july of last year to find a higher number. going back to june of '22 when it was 0.9%. strip out -- you strip out food and energy, it's up 0.3. 0.1 hotter. in the rearview mirror up half

of 0.1. strip out food, energy and trade up 0.4. up 0.4, hottest obviously since up 0.6 last month. year over year now. okay? these are final demand headline numbers. expected to be up 1.2. up 1.6. up 1.6 on year over year, and that is, wow. we're going to have to go back a ways. 1.6, highest level going back to september of last year. 1.8. you'v year over year up. equalling rearview mirror definitely hotter than expected. food, energy and trade year over year up 2.8 follows up 2.6 to find a higher number than 2.8 go back to september of last year when it was 2.9. yields going up. switch gears to retail sales. remember, every one of these

metricks in terms of month over month chang. reverse it? certainly did. up 0.6. however, still less than we looked for. that 0.8 worse thins march of last year now becomes minus 1.1, and if you strip out autos improves, excuse me. does not improve, and this really is interesting, because when you strip out autos and it doesn't improve, that really gives us a sense what's going on in many of the other industries. it's up 0.3. 0.2 shy of expectations. last month's worst since march of '23, kwors again from minus 0.6 to minus 0.8. strip out autos and gas up 0.3. faes equals expectations down 0.8 and finally if we look at the control group it's unchanged. expecting up 0.4. last month minus 0.4 becomes minus 0.3.

only things we have left initial continuing claims. i just dropped the papers. hold on. let's bend down. let's grab them. here we are back in frame. initial claims, 20 9,000. continuing claims, this is a biggy. 1 million 811,000. we really need to pay attention to this number. that's really an outlier. especially considering we're looking for our second number in a row to be up over 1. 9 million as it was last week. that was the highest since the third week of '23 in november. now, here's what's fascinating. not only significantly lower. there's a revision last month that's unbelievely large. from 1 million 906,000 to 1 million 794,000. huge revision! how far back do we have to go to

see 1 million 794,000? that's going back to -- october of last year. so these numbers are really a bit odd. on the claims side, that's showing a labor market that's super tight, but i question continuing claims after receipt on retail sales, well, a bit of a disappointment on many levels. especially on revisions and ppi, you know, i want the experts to weigh in and i hope they're not going to sound like cpi. just going to push this back a bit. hotter than expected no matter how you slice it. now up to 421.5 or 10s. flirting with 406, 407, 408 not that long ago on an intraday trading basis and preopening equities are still dealing with this in a positive fashion. which is very interesting, considering the numbers! i'm sorry. there's a lot there. becky, back to you. >> i was going to ask you about, rick.

i'm surprised. look, looking at dow futures up. higher than expected ppi dropped to 120 or something. it's picked back up. seems like a shockingly surprisingly positive reaction from the equities front. yields aren't that much hotter. watching what happened afterwards. are you surprised by any of that? >> yeah. very, very, very surprised about what's going on in equities. i can't wait to see how the panel weighs in. a similar dynamic to cpi day before yesterday. seems as though investors are kind of drain medicaling with t -- drain melding with the fed. question what meeting, june, is it going to be july or september? but they're zeroed in on the fed moving and don't look at ppi as intently as cpi. i don't think reactions will be that surprising, but continues

to amizaze me equities are so convinced rate of inflation won't be a huge mogul for some of these fed eases. especially off all of these articles. i'm sure everybody read the "wall street journal" today. people are freaked out. they want deflation. believe me, the fed, last thing they want is deflation. last thing a country with $34 trillion in debt wants is deflation. >> stay with us, rick. talk a lot more about this data. bring in panel, political economy chair and senior research foley at george mason university's racoda center and steve liesman, start with you. talk is through things that jumped out to you. >> first thing that's going to jump out at you is reversal inside the ppi of what's driving it. this time it was goods, which

have been experiencing deflation over the past several months. up 1.2%. while services, pretty well tame. one of the things fed is looking for up 0.3%. energy obvious driving some of that up 4.4%. take out food and energy up 0.3 and the trade services. this is the measure for profit margins. also declining 0.3%. i will say this. i think we're paying more and moor attention to the ppi because what's that's going to do, feed into the pce coming out end of the month. really that's the key to it. i think -- i'm a little less surprised than rick about the market reaction. guys i don't know if you have the january 2025 fed contract. what that shows is the market has been banking this year on less and less easing. that's going to come down to your -- sorry, come up to your right here in terms of the year-end fed funds contract, but

then look where the market has been, stocks have been since january. they've been going up as well. there's been this disconnect between the stock market and the outlook for the fed. they were married at the hip all of last year and now the market seems okay. i think i do see, though, a pretty decent rebound in the february retail steal sales num. big revision to take into account. on net bring down expectations for gdp this quarter. a 1.2% decline from what had been originally on retail 0.8% decline and came in beloan -- below expectations. a rebound in february thought to be weather-related and other issues in january. that's okay. i'm okay with that. not okay with the ppi. i think there's still going to be concern about inflation. whether the market's concerned about it, becky -- claim was

good. right? 209, and they -- >> continuing claims -- do you think continuing claims, that revision, these numbers are really, really distorted based on history expectations, past revisions. any thoughts? >> right. i mean -- well, they're lower and, look -- rick, maybe i have a little more tolerance for you, than you, with the, the foibles of the government trying to measure the economy. it just -- you want to know what happened in the -- >> 106% debt to gdp. sure happy with quality of these numbers as well. >> guys, let me bring in our other guests. >> one more thing, becky. say one more thing. that kind of unchanged on the outlook for the fed. june fed funds contract i have at 65% probability. went into this at 67%. it's come down but not a lot. >> when you look at this, the ppi number in particular, does that tell you that the fed is going have a harder time cutting rates? do you think it pushes off that

date even further? >> yeah. absolutely. in fact, i was always surprised that anyone believed that we had achieved soft landing and they were going to be rate cuts. i mean, we've had the cpi above 3% the past six months and showing continued strength in january and february. ppi kind of the same. and i mean, that cannot be dismissed any longer as noise or transitory or -- and i've actually thought all along that the fed can't do it alone. i mean, look, like, there's a ton of liquidity still in the market. the fed is still having to take in, like what? $500 billion daily from the money market fund and lots of excess reserve in banks, and the federal government is pumping a massive amount of money in planning to spend even more.

latest budget is what? increase of, what? 6% to 7% next year? it's -- i mean, i -- i am surprised that people even believe that the plan had landed. i didn't see it. i also think we can dismiss the fact that interest payments on the debt, $1 trillion. we don't have this money. this is more boring. it is likely to actually fuel more inflation. at the very least, tell investors, right, that unless there's something that really changes in terms of what the projected primary surplus is, aww, maybe just plan for not being, you know, repaid in the long run. so i'm just kind of -- i've always been surprised by declaring victory on inflation when it -- inflation is stuck, if anything. >> i don't know if declaring victory just yet but i think the

markets expectations for rate cuts could be pushed into a little bit of question. >> can i say something? >> sure. >> i think fed suffers from a credibility problem. not because chairman powell has not actually released, stuck to his gun and been very clear he would make sure inflation was done before raising rates. history of the fed, last 20 years or whatever, the market learned that the fed will come to their rescue. so they just, maybe that's where the disconnect is. >> what do you think about all of this? does this pose a huge problem to the fed's plans at this point? >> no. i don't think it should. right? i'm a firm believer one month does not make a trend. when you zoom out -- >> this is two. >> well, several data points do not make a trend. you zoom out look at trajectory of ppi income costs coming down precipitously. really coming down fast.

prices are coming down but not quite as fast. so what is sitting in that gap? right? your interest costs coming down prices high. big corporations sitting there juicing that gap for all its worth. we see that in the data. 53% of inflation second and third quarters of 2023 were driven by profit margins. it's very, very clear to me that this is a, a supply-side problem that the fed actually doesn't have any tools to address. powell himself has said this. so you know, i think it's absolutely clear that the fed needs to cut rates. stay the course on their proposed rate cuts and if anything do it sooner. >> if you're looking at the treasury reaction today, certainly seems to be agreeing with that. we saw ten year pop above 4.2% and then come back down as a result you see equity futures continue to climb, despite a shotter than anticipated cpi. hotter than anticipated core. hotter than anticipated super core. both for the month over month

and year over year. we'll continue to puzzle all of this but want to thank our panel today for joining us and talking us through all of that. when we come back, what happens if the senate follows the house and forces bytedance to divest tiktok? we'll talk how that could play t he courts and online. "squawk box" will be right back. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart!

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welcome back to "squawk box." i'm dominic chu. consumers stories of the morning.

earnings reports to start. shares of dick's sporting goods up 4.5% around 70,000 shares of volume reporting better than expected profiting and revenues driven in part by a better holiday shopping season and full-year guidance ahead and raised to $1.10 per share. and front share of the dollar general up roughly 1.5%. discount retailer reported better than expected results top and bottom lines driven by customer growth traffic and market share garins helping it above estimates. shares higher, and non-retail story getting attention. under armour. shares lower. company announces current ceo would step down from that role after a little over a year on the job, and chairman and founder kevin plank returns to the ceo role.

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i think it should be solved. i understand the technology. it's a great business, and i'm going to put together a group to buy tiktok. >> you're trying to buy tiktok? >> i am, because it should be owned by a -- u.s. businesses. there's no way that the chinese would ever let a u.s. company own something like this in china. >> that was former treasury secretary steven mnuchin earlier this hour breaking news right here at our desk that he is putting together a group to try to buy tiktok. joining us right now to talk about the future of tiktok after the house passed its divest or ban bill yesterday, jessica lessen, founder and ceo of the information. great to see you this morning. your reaction to the idea that the former treasury secretary may be putting a group together to make this his own?

>> well, i think the former treasury secretary has to check chinese law. i really, andrew, don't think there's any chance the chinese government allows tiktok to be sold in the u.s. they've said previously they wouldn't, and i don't see that being any different. we'll see, but i think it's highly unlikely. >> are you in the camp, then, that this is not a divest bill, if you will, but very much a ban bill? >> absolutely. i mean, the chinese government, a, they don't want chinese algorithms in the hands of u.s. companies. b, they've been regulating tiktok and tightening the screws against it in china, so i really think those perspectives are being missed, and what the house passed is effectively a ban bill, yes. >> and then, are you of the view that tiktok represents a current threat to the u.s. insofar as

the idea that the chinese, you talk about them regulating tiktok, are either using the data they have already and/or influencing the algorithm in a way to influence americans, or do you consider it more of a prospective threat, which is to say that tiktok has so many users here in the u.s., if the government were to do that in the future, they could have such an impact but not necessarily that they've already done such? >> i think what's clear from our reporting, andrew, is that tiktok is controlled by bytedance, which, you know, the chinese government has a stake in the company. our reporting has shown that. there's no questions about the ties. even a key app that now creators are using to edit their tiktoks and is being integrated is held and controlled by bytedance, the parent. the app is called cap cut, not tiktok. so, there's no way you can really draw a bright line between them, and i think that is and should be a cause for concern. >> what do you make of the board

in terms of the governance of bytedance? there are many, or several, i should say, only five people, but people that are obviously unrelated to the government, per se, and in certain cases include, we've talked about him before, bill ford, who runs general atlantic, and we had the treasury secretary, former treasury secretary, just saying that he has had a conversation with him or effectively intimating that to roll into a future deal. >> look, investors in bytedance are really in a bind here. bytedance is their golden goose. already valued at more than $300 billion and would be way more if public, if you apply, say, meta's multiple. i think what's interesting now is our reporting suggests investors are actually taking more of a backseat in the lobbying of the u.s. government than they were the other times this ban has come around. and i think the growing pressure from china, the fact that large tech investors just have other issues now, a.i., so many other

things they want to push washington on, we're not seeing the same level of lobbying. i think you'll see some, i suspect sequoia will get involved, but again, sequoia is also trying to stay under the radar now that they split off their chinese business. i think, obviously, investors want to maximize their golden goose here, but i think they're also realistic that this issue has been what's hanging over bytedance's potential to go public anywhere, and so maybe there's a littlesilver lining here. of course, there are many, many steps still to a ban. >> jessica, if, in fact, there is a -- we'll call it a divestiture -- what do you think the value -- if that could even happen, and i know that for you sounds like a big what if, what do you think the value would be of it? we tried to ask steve mnuchin about that. he didn't want to negotiate in public. i don't know if you have an idea of what the number would be. i know we've heard numbers like $50 billion, but then we've also heard it doesn't make any money. >> you know, andrew, i think it could be more.

if you apply kind of estimates of $20 billion in revenue, you know, 8x forward, you're potentially talking about something that's 160. now, of course, there's a discount if you have a forced sale, so i don't think that is the price, but it is a big, big number. yes, we reported yesterday that still losing money, but it is the growth engine for bytedance. growth is maturing in china. tiktok is taking over in terms of consumer experience. this could be very, very valuable. of course, if there are strings attached, like it has to happen, it could be a sweet deal. >> if it gets banned or pushed out, do you think that they could -- it's possible that tiktok could say, look, we're not going to give you the algorithm. is it possible that you could buy whatever remains of it and effectively try to recreate the algorithm? i mean, facebook obviously has such an algorithm. you're starting to see this type of thing in other realms. youtube -- youtube shorts and

the like. >> i think the most likely thing, bytedance would say, okay, it's off in the u.s. i mean, tiktok does operate in other countries. it's also banned in other countries. i think they just wash their hands and say, we can't operate here. i don't see how you would kind of decouple the components. >> okay, jessica lessin, thank you for waking up early is th morning and offering your perspective on this breaking news. talk to you soon.

final quick check on the markets. the equity markets, still up. the yield on the ten-year, i think, is now, what, 4.21%? let's take a look at that after that number. 4.23%. we keep hearing one bad number. every time we hit a bad number, they say, one bad number, but we've said it three or four times. join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with mike santoli, david faber here at post nine of the new york stock exchange. cramer has the morning off. for the second time this week, stocks taking a glass half full view on some hot eco-data, this time ppi doubling expectations. ten-year almost hits highs for the month. our road map begins with that other key read on inflation, ppi higher than expected. plus tesla shares, well,