because people will need more authoring and editing, too. >> morgan, if the stock trades tomorrow where it is right now, that will bring adobe back to the levels for the second half of last year, also the same level as late 2020, early '21. >> university of michigan consumer sentiment tomorrow. that does it for us here at "overtime." >> “fast money” starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. rate rebound. the ten-year rising sharply, as fears mount that inflation isn't fading. the impact on stocks, dead markets, and the consumer coming up. plus, tiktok trouble. is it setting the stage for a major battle with beijing? later a sporting urge for the retail stock. and tesla's electric slide rolls on. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan

nathan, and guy adami. we start off with the latest escalations between washington and beijing. china's foreign ministry responding with sharp words to the u.s. house passing a tiktok crackdown bill. a spokesman saying today that the vote, quote, lets the united states stand on the opposite side of principles of fair competition and international trade rules. and that if so-called national security reasons can be used to willfully is up press other countries' superior companies, there would be no fairness to speak of. the comments come as steve mnuchin made a surprise announcement this morning that he is looking to buy tiktok. would a deal like this would be allowed to go through? are we on the precipice of a real blow to u.s./china relations, that the market isn't pricing in at this point? tim, what do you think? >> i think there's no question we've had different points in the last couple years where it felt like tensions were escalating to, almost like, how could you not? huawei, i thought, was the spot. and again, all the different ways in which we pushed back on

essentially the national champion mobile phone company in china, i think the dynamic here, the fact that -- i think tiktok felt like they were out on the woods and -- "the journal" has an interesting article where officials by tiktok were blindsided, because when president biden re-election team signed up for a tiktok account, they were like, i guess we're good. we talk all the time about the companies, and it's not just apple, nike, and starbucks, that have listed china for the last decade as their key growth engine. karen will talk about ulta tonight, talking about international, there's a whole lot of dynamics here. you think of the spirits companies, a lot of american brands have relied upon china, to the extent that not only if the u.s. follows through on a ban, you can be pretty sure that that ban is going to be a domino that goes around the world, i think. and obviously that's going to only, you know, exacerbate the pain here, so, i do think there are bigger ramifications.

i do think that the political cycle is such that this bipartisan issue is one that i think there -- folks from both sides are going to push the buttons. >> the other thing that the spokesperson said is that the actions will come back to bite the u.s. which sounds like -- >> retaliation. >> okay, but this is not -- this is actually -- i don't think it should be considered a unilateral move. google's not there, facebook's not there -- >> but they weren't banned, per se. >> no, they are. the great firewall. >> they're not allowed to operate in a way they would want to operate. so, i think of it as similar, unlike the tariffs,which we sort of did unilaterally, the last administration, put -- >> what if they operated in china and then china decided after awhile, after they surpassed alibaba and other home grown companies, that they didn't want google or microsoft or any of the other companies to be there -- >> i feel like that's sort of what they did. made it so --

>> own rouse. >> yeah, they had to leave. there's so much momentum around this. it's a bipartisan issue, and so, i think we'll see it -- we'll get to the potential bid, but that was kind of shocking. >> there are companies that do operate. mcdonald's spoke at a ubs conference yesterday, and for different reasons, but china was mentioned due to the sluggish start at the beginning of the year, their words, not mine, but you layer this on top of that, and that's a problem for some of the multinationals, without question. and i still think the biggest bulls eye is on the back of apple, which has obviously sold off seemingly found a bid here at 170 or so, but if the chinese want to rachet this thing up, i think apple is the first place they go. >> and tesla. when you think about -- sorry, the great firewall, our digital companies can't operate in china the way they can in the west, so, it makes it very unappealing to them. so, to me, when i think about this, let's be clear, this is -- not a ban, it's a divestiture.

it will cause a ban, the chain reaction and the retaliation. again, that seems kind of odd to me, considering it is not a level playing field between our digital companies and their access to their consumers. then you have to ask yourself the question, why is the chinese government so interested in this one situation? maybe it is the thing that we can all agree on. we can agree on very little in this country right now, but we can agree on the fact that there is a potential threat of the communist party in china having full, you know, basically control over the company that has full ownership of this product, right? and so, if that's what is being agreed upon, then the idea of a divest sure and firewall and access to what the party has to -- >> is that a first -- >> no, it's basically -- >> divest or ban. >> get out. >> there's time, which is the same thing which happened during the trump administration and then nothing happened. and trump got bought and paid for and flip-flopped on the

whole thing. now that his boy mnuchin is putting together a bid for the economy, how does trump get bought and paid for a second time? that's what this is coming down to, econcheesy politics and grifting. >> the chinese government is saying, they are going to pass this bill and it's going to allow the u.s. to effectively seize control of a very valuable asset. they're fog to create the market conditions where this asset can be bought and put on the market. and that's -- that's sort of the argument. >> and they'll control that narrative, and then they'll push back in ways that we probably haven't even talked about yet. >> sure. >> and again, i don't think the market is pricing any of this in at all. maybe it's starting to in the form of, i said, mcdonald's, maybe apple and tes lashgs but in terms of the broader market, absolutely not. and what's interesting about that, you can actually sort of make a bullish case for the fxi, which was lower today, and some of these individual names, counterintuitive as that may seem. i still think the china trade works here.

>> it is also a time when we have this deglobalization, lori brought that point up yesterday. it's exactly what's been going on. and you have a case where i just think -- they talk about a dynamic where either divest or ban -- i've been investing in countries around the world where threat of takeover is something that was there always, so -- and the u.s., i mean, you can look at this from the other side and say there could be a real challenge if it's viewed that, you know, -- any sector could deemed a strategic sector. this is what goes on around the world. natural resources, telecom. certainly in china. this is -- a lot of consistency, but call it what it is. i mean, this stuff has been going on in other parts of the world. and when i've seen that happen to companies that were foreign companies in localities that i thought were, you know, great growth opportunities, made me not want to invest there. so, i do think this is not a

threat to, you know, u.s. trade, but i do think we have to understand the context of this, and this has been going on in other parts of the world for a long time. >> well, one other thing i thought was interesting was this -- ithink you talked about it last night, u.s. steel, the idea of this company being -- not allowed to be purchased by what is considered a close ally of the united states -- >> right. >> right, with no overlap, with no technology, basically getting transferred to japan. i mean, it's a little bit -- that, to me, makes me far less comfortable than this. right? the tiktok threat, i can see -- >> i agree. and there's tons -- steel is not a strategic asset. you can make an argument that u.s. steel by its name seems strategic. but it hasn't been since the '60s. >> for more on the tiktok fallout, let's bring in dewar

d dewardrick mcneal. it sounds like you're not as worried about what's going on with tiktok. >> well, i'm certainly worried about the ksecurity concerns, bt when i heard the announcement this morning about former secretary mnuchin, my thought was, pump our brakes, because there's a lot left to go here before we get to it. if it goes into committee, it is likely going to stall. if it goes to the senate intelligence committee that's warner and rubio, maybe it will move faster, but if it goes through the committee for commerce, science, and technology, ted cruz, who is a ranking member, has already said that he wants full amendments on this thing. we're a long ways away. so, i'm concerned about tiktok, but i'm not at the point yet where i think we're at divest sure. >> there is also, i understand,

china has to approve this deal. i mean, the algorithm, which is the secret sauce for tiktok, it's a key technology, and so, china would have to agree to export, to have an export license for this technology in order for this deal to go through. otherwise, you're buying a shell of a company. >> that's the real question. look, i think that the chinese government has been very clear. they have no interest in having this alleggorithm owned by anyb in the u.s. if you listened to the announcement this morning, secretary mnuchin threw a crumb out, said, if this were to happen, we would use u.s. technology to do this, meaning, not the algorithm, but then, what do you have? it's hard to say. >> it feels like the -- some of the rhetoric around investing or trading in china was at its worst in january when everything bottomed out, and i think tim agrees, i feel the same way,

that -- i think there's a trade there on the long side what are your thoughts on a short-term trade in the fxi or some of the individual names? >> yeah, as you well know, i'm going to be hesitant to get into trading advice. let me just say that i don't believe, speaking at a macro level about the chinese economy, that we're near being out of the water. none of the major problems have been solved. we have this new statement about new productive forces, ev, advanced manufacturing, those sectors, but those are the sectors that you will find the u.s. is in direct competition with china on, so it's fuzzy, to me, in terms of what is available for long-term investing in china, but coming off the back of the national people's congress, i'm not con vi vinced there's been solvency in the short-term or long-term for what's next to drive growth. >> does this change your view of the state of u.s./china

relations? and how do you see the trajectory of those relations as we've progressed in the year? particularly as we approach the election, and if donald trump is re-elected president, that would really, i mean, he's already talked about a 60% plus tariff on chinese goods. >> yeah, that's a good question, melissa. let's park trump as president for now, and just look at these next 235 days or so before the election. look, i don't think that tiktok announcement has done anything to really upset the san francisco agreement to maintain high level dialogue between the u.s. and china. i think what you have here is what we should always expect. this is not going to be a relationship that's without competition, it's not going to be a relationship without friction. but i don't see the tiktok bill as one that either side is prepared to blow up the bilateral relationship over. so, i think we're holding serve from where we were after the apec meeting in san francisco. >> and then, with a trump

presidency, what happens, do you think? >> who knows? i can tell you right now, it's going to be a lot of chaos, for sure, i think trade is certainly going to be back on the table, the 60% tariff issue. people think that that's fantasy, but look, i have to take the former president at his word. he has been prepared to go farther than anyone else i've seen at total disruption, and so, we should prepare ourselves for that again. >> wow. all right, thank you for joining us. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> what do you think about what's going on here? >> i was just reading this in the information, i mean, you know, rupert murdoch had to become a u.s. citizen to own a media company here in the u.s. this was, you know, decades ago. this is the -- the fcc has rules about in didirect ownership. this doesn't seem so out of left field. and just -- >> it's not, but -- so it's not, and i think everybody agrees

it's not. and therefore now what? >> yeah, but i -- i just go back to the thing, why is this such a hot button issue? because, you know, the chinese know that they have this thing that has captivated the world. it's an influencing tool. we've spent so much time, since the 2016 election, going over all of these different techniques in which different, you know, ways populations can be manipulated. this one seems very unique, at a time where, you know -- so again, i just think they are actually confirming the worst fears that some of us have about the potential risk that this platform is on hundreds of millions of americans phones. >> a couple of things. on tariffs -- former president trump definitely has loved using tariffs in the past, we've seen it in the steel industry, and it wasn't great for u.s. steel. who we've just talked about. china plays the long game. so, china doesn't need to react right here and now, and i realize that's kind of a cliche. this is an event, they do need

to react. there's certainly been some discussion and within our government, certain -- i think some elected officials have been either urged or told not to use tiktok, sounds like soes and companies, state-owned companies inside of china told not to use apple products. the one thing i'd say, and dewardric is great speaking about this, the diplomatic channel, if that breaks down, that's a big problem. even in our worst of times, and by the way, i feel concerned about this with a lot of other bilateral relationships, in our country, our diplomatic core is key to keeping people talking, and communicating. and that breakdown in communication, which, you know, i think has been exacerbated in the last five to ten years, is something that we can't break down right now. >> you mentioned mcdonald's. one company operating independent on china growth. >> 100%. >> are you worried about multinationals like a mcdonald's or a starbucks under a biden administration, if he's

re-elected, our under a trump -- or both? >> well -- it's not political, i'd be more concerned under a trump administration, that's not -- so that's the answer to the question, but it's interesting tim brought up the tariffs. if you want a little history lesson, go back to u.s. steel into basically the winter of 2018, february, to be exact. i think that's when a lot of these -- u.s. steel was lower left upper right, doing amazingly well, tariffs get announced and that stock went from $48 to $15 and pretty much a straight line. so, you can say tariffs are good, but they have ramifications for the multinationals and our domestic companies here. >> i do think the onshoring, the reshoring, nearshoring, all the -- the infrastructure bill, all of that trade continues to work. we have an earnings alert here on adobe. sinking in the afterhours despite a top and bottom line beat. down 11%.

missing wall street estimates, as well. the ceo just on cnbc in the last hour reacting to the quarter. kristina partsinevelos has the details. >> there was caution heading into this print, and then further caution post-earnings, the stock down double digits. even after the ceo came on our airwaves to talk. but what we saw, despite the q-1 beat and the $25 billion share buy-back program, investors noted the miss for q-2 revenue guidance and a slight miss for net new digital media annual reoccurring revenue, which came in at $432 million, which was higher than estimates, but less than bi-side estimates of $440 million. and that's a key metric for adobe. a major overhang, competition from openai's sora, adobe was on in the last hour, and he said he believes competition will create a, quote, explosion in the amount of video and adobe is going to be one of the

beneficiaries. it seems like he's not too worried. adobe has a summit on march 26th with expected new product announcements to coall fears tht it could be losing market share to openai and fall behind in the a.i. race. stock, though, says otherwise. >> kristina, thank you. kristina parsetsinpartsinevelos. we were talking before the show. it said, it seems like every quarter, adobe reports, whatever they say, the stock goes down immediately. >> this is one of those situations. quarter was fine. the guidance was a tad light. i think adobe, and please don't at me, but i think they're the 40th largest company on the planet. for context. stock moves 12% on what was light guidance -- that, to me, speaks to a lot of things that david einhorn was talking about. you're looking for a place to buy this stock, not sell it, and you're getting pretty close. >> i would say that, you know, down to $500, it's been

technical support for the last six, seven months, and you do have this user event where they're going to be detailing products, and the kind ofsy tory is they're not keeping up the pace with what's coming out of openai. we get it. openai is in front of so many incumbents right now on so many different levels. the problem is that you have a company or you have a stock that's trading at 32 times expected earnings and sales growth of about 11% or 12% for the next couple of years, and so, it's interesting that there are parts of this generative a.i. trade where people don't care about valuation, and then in the situation, where these will clearly be a beneficiary, and they will clearly make good m&a decisions and the like here and have good product offerings and the like. but it's just not being appreciated because there's no there there. the earnings train keeps rolling on. ulta's numbers next. plus, lithium america shares surging after the miner got a big boost in its attempts to boost production. the headline that has option traders salivating, right after this. this is "fast money" with

melissa lee right here on cnbc. into the vending area. oh, not the fries! where's the ball? -anybody see it? oh wait, there it is! -back into play and... aw no, it's in the water. wait a minute... are you kidding me? you got to be kidding me. rolling towards the cup, and it's in the hole! what an impossible shot brought to you by comcast business. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim:

our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly. you can make money the hard way as a bullfighter or a human cannonball... or save money the easy way, with xfinity mobile. existing customers can get a free line

of our most popular unlimited plan for a year! not only will you save hundreds but you'll also be joining millions who have connected to america's most reliable 5g network. sure is a lot safer than becoming a stuntman for money. get a free line of unlimited intro for a year when you buy one unlimited line. visit xfinitymobile.com today to learn more. welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on

ulta beauty, after hitting a high earlier today, shares down in extended trading. that's despite reporting a beat on the top and bottom line. let's get to courtney reagan for the details. >> ulta putting up a stronger than expected quarter for earnings for revenue, comparable sales. the retailer's full-year revenue forecast stronger than consensus. earnings guidance range that is a little light, so, that could be part of the reason that we're receiving the shares sell off here or some sell on the news, some profit taking. shares have been up about 14% over the last three months over this last quarter. they just reported, which is well above the retail etf, the xrt and the broader s&p 500. the ceo says ulta is forming a joint venture to open ulta beauty in 2025, and international expansion represents an increment am, long-term opportunity. didn't share much more than that. they said right now for competitive reasons, but will tell us more when they are able

to. on the call, he said that skincare was the strongest category of double digits, when you're talking about sales growth there. makeup comps did fall single digits, but also called out strength in the higher end, almost luxury names like dior and pat mcgrath. back to you. >> thank you, courtney. dick's posted their biggest gain in nearly three years after results this morning. karen, what do you make of this ulta trade? >> i dam long ulta. short upside calls, not enough. but i thought it was fine. as courtney said, it's had a huge run. all-time hikes going into this earnings. higher pe multiple than they've had taking out the pandemic, which was sort of a one-off situation, so, i think of them as underpromise, overdeliver. i thought the revenue was good. i thought it was all good, actually, just -- not enough in this tape and with that run, but i'm happy to be long.

wish i could buy some -- actually, i could, shortly, where it is right now, i think their call is going on as we speak. >> the full-year -- this was the fourth quarter. the low, i think, 27.10 was consensus. okay, but margins, operating margins beat by 80 basis points. their sales outpaced their inventory. that's in line, which, theoretically, should mean margins continue to probably do very well. valuation isn't nuts, i mean, it's probably, what, 24 timesish, matybe 25 -- >> maybe lower. >> maybe lower. like we talked about adobe, you are looking for a place to buy, not sell. >> it's cheaper than the e in blicep, which is estee lauder, which is mine. and we just referenced this in the last block, which is that i think beauty suffers significantly from tiktok ban. and it's partially because that channel has proven to be gold for a lot of the beauty companies, and there's a view that ulta, with their ub media,

is so far ahead of everybody else and has some of the size and scale toll pass it, but you know, to me, i look at some of the other players. estee lauder is a story where we've known all about the china problem. and if anything, i think there's some innovation, a company that clearly recognizes they need to move quickly. some of the channel dynamics are -- have cleaned themselves up a bit. to me, it's hard -- ulta is so far, like, the best in class in that space, and estee lauder is not, but often i find that an interesting trade. >> nobodywants to talk about dick's? i'm serious! >> that is some -- well, look. >> it was up 2.8% in terms of sales, even though transactions were flat, so -- >> yeah, the ticket sizes are better, and it's a case where, i was of the view that the pull forward from covid for some of these retailers including best buy was so extraordinary that they would never see it as good again, and totally wrong, so --

not long the name, but obviously an impressive move today. >> that will make -- we do this highlight reel every year. that will make the highlight reel. the silence after that question -- i'm telling you now. just wait until -- when do we do it, december? just mark this day, peeps. i'm telling you. >> but it's true. you guys are talking about -- there were a lot of interesting things out of the dick's call. >> absolutely. and tim addressed it well. >> no, there's a lot to like, i mean -- the margins were really good. i mean -- they did everything right. and it's not crazy expensive, either. i think -- they're sort of the one to beat in this industry. >> amazing how mel positioned it as, she was just asking a question. >> i was just asking a question. it is a stock that was on the move today. >> i -- i understand. i -- why -- why is everybody mad at me? i sat here dumb like i typically do. i didn't change anything. >> there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next.

we're mining for profits. one lithium company hitting pay dirt and seeing shares surging to their highs of the year. the headline that has options traders scrambling for picks and shovels, next. plus, debt's a dangerous game. while our next guest is sounding the alarm on two major events that he says could have global implications. and why this year's elections might be make or break for the economy. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪)

nature's bounty hair growth. clinically shown to help grow thicker, fuller hair with just one capsule a day of advanced hair complex. conquer hair thinning... ...and fall in love with your hair all over again. only from nature's bounty. the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. and if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future where you grew a dream into a reality. the all new godaddy airo. put your business online in minutes with the power of ai. did you ever worry we wouldn't get to enjoy this? [jeff laughs maniacally] (inner monologue) seriously, look at these guys. they are playing great. meanwhile, i'm on the green and all i can think about is all the green i'm spending on 3 kids in college. not to mention the kitchen remodel, and we'd just remodel the bathrooms last month. with empower, i get all of my financial questions answered. so i don't have to worry. so you're like a guru now? oh here it comes— join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next.

welcome back to "fast money." shares of lithium americas charging as much as 33% higher today, though they closed up 4.5%. this comes after the company secured a record loan of more than $2 billion from the u.s. department of energy. the funding will go to boosting its lithium production in the u.s. the options pits buzzing on this news. mike khouw is here to help us break down the action. mike, what did you see? >> yeah, we saw 13 times the average daily options volume, almost 14, actually. calls outpacing puts almost 3 to 1. the busiest calls, the april 7.5 strike calls. a pile of those trading for 46

cents. the stock did sell off a little bit at the close, so those were more like 20 to 30 cents at the close. it is, in fact, a call option in and of itself, so, think of these as calls on calls. >> mike, thank you. mike khouw. the options action on lac. this is interesting, in terms of this loan, this is the biggest u.s. deposit of lithium. we actually talked to the ceo in the past. >> these are secular stories -- tim's talked about uranium, lithium, these are stories that are not going to go away. >> fits into the china conversation. >> and energy. if you think energy is going to continue to grind -- this plays into why both. >> and look at copper today. >> yeah, and i do think that while copper is not a strategic metal, i think there are dynamics. think about the electric grid. think about the demand that's on copper production. and back to lithium. kowan pointed out, this loan derisks the story.

so, you can have a growth story where they can burn and have a back stop, that's interesting as an investor. coming up, debt danger. from treasury bonds to mortgages, our next guest says where there's debt, there's major risk lurking. why he's sounding the alarm, next. plus, refiners looking fine. oil jumped back over 80 bucks. can the rally continue? we've got some answers right after this. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." stocks pulling back today, but finishes off the lows following another hot inflation report. the dow dropping 137 points. the s&p falling 15 points, and the nasdaq sliding 49. the higher than expected growth and producer prices sent treasury yields higher with the ten-year yield touching 4.3% for the first time this month, and the two-year nearing 4.7%. bitcoin, meantime, pulling back after hitting another record this morning. the crypto-currency dropping as much as 5%, trading for a time below $70,000. finally, tesla tumbling again. another 4% down today. ubs saying it is difficult to see a near-term catalyst that will improve ev sentiment. the stock is down nearly 35%

this year. are you surprised by this sliding tesla action? >> no -- well you if we're being honest, i mean, i'm wrong all the time, but this one, we've done a decent job. this is -- it's a margin story. two or three quarters ago, they told us that, you know what, that's it that's trough margins. the market got excited. the stock rallied. turns out, that's not the case. and as they get closer to legacy automaker margins, the more the stock gets sold off. and i still think $153 or so is a level where you want to re-engage. you're not pressing shorts here, you are looking for an opportunity to own it. >> i agree. it's a tough short at this point. the sentiment is so bad, and i think the street analysts are kind of catching up to where the deliveries of this quarter are, and they're going to extrapolate out for the balance of the year. this looks like this is the first year they could go negative as far as delivery growth, and that to me changes the dynamic of the story, especially when you consider what the margin situation looks like, the competitive situation, the chinese situation, and don't think for a second, maybe one of

the sellers here is elon musk, you know, when you think about it, he's pledged a lot of his shares -- >> we would have to know, though. they're not great at filing on time. i'll say this. >> this has been the case in other situations like this. >> all right. >> yeah, look, in a world where we've started to figure out there are other companies that are -- have a hybrid plan and that seems to be the story, i still like that story. and a growth company that's not growing, i mean, all we ever heard about with the tesla multiple this was a tech company. it seems to be an auto company right now. and i realize that there are a lot of elements of the story, but i think you just layer in the fact that there have been owners of this stock that at every news point, good or bad, they were in. and i think there's challenges to that story. and i think the macro challenge in the sector, i get back to what toyota and gm are doinging and they were beating up stocks andtesla crushed them, but it's a different story right now. meantime, the federal debt load snowballing in recent

months, adding a trillion dollars every 100 days, and sitting near $34.5 trillion in total. the surge raising concerns about higher rates and lower growth in the long run, which our next guest says could make capital more sparse, cut into the number of u.s. debt buyers. a professor of finance at the wharton school, great to have you with us. i think that a lot of people are worried about the national debt, worried about how we fund everything, but at the same time, it's just something -- what is going to push this to the forefront to actually be an impact on the markets? >> hi, melissa. thank you for having me. i think some people are worried, but not enough. certainly not in washington. i think one thing that could push this to the forefront is, we will have a big debate next year about whether to extend the trump tax cuts or not. i think that's the first order of concern. i think that's going to cost a significant amount of money. we're going to have that debate in the context of a very divisive presidency, whoever

wins. so, the quality of the fiscal policy that we're going to put in place, so, that could bring that quite early into next year. so, it's not something that i anticipate that it's going to trigger a crisis, but i think we've had two warning signs. it would be silly not to listen to them. we've seen last year, the ten-year go to 5%. and clearly, because of supply, because of too much issuance by the treasury. we saw how sensitive that was after the treasury sort of changed the auction, the auction schedule and that sort of thing, the amounts being issued. it was a big warning sign, the markets are paying attention to yields at this point. and we're now 4.2, 4.3. but the sensitivity is there. we're issuing 1.6, 1.8 trillion a year. we need buyers for this. when the japaneses are not buying, when the fed is selling, not buying, this is going to be a lot tougher in years ahead. and it's also going to take place against the backdrop of a

big cycle that is going to increase demand for capital. it's not just a.i., it's sustainability, rebuilding supply chains in ways that are more resilient. there's a lot of demand for capital. the world has very low rates, it's essentially over, at least for the next decade or so, and that kind of headwind is going to place a much bigger demand, i think, on the u.s. fiscal authority to be much more responsible than it has been. so, i think markets are starting to pay attention, there's no question. i'm sure a lot of people are, but obviously not in washington. >> professor gomes, it's karen. fellow quaker here, also with dan. so, is there a number? is there a percent for the ten-year, let's say, where you're like, you know what, that's it, the market will look at that as -- ringing the bell, this is a problem now, not sometime in the future? >> i don't have a number. i think that's -- i do think -- we just came one a study -- i'm

not worried about the level of the debt right now, let's be clear. we can afford this level of debt. we can grow out of it. what i'm really worried about, it's going to double in 20 years. that, i can't see us being able to afford. and i think -- it is optimistic. that, i think, is a problem, is a serious problem. do i -- i don't have a number in mind for the ten-year, but i don't think 200% of gdp -- we're not going to get there. the market will certainly revolt, so to speak, before we get that far. >> how much of your analysis tries to factor in, you know, global goodwill for the u.s.? and again, some of the political sir us, some of the dynamics around the deficit, i think this is the reason why gold is going higher. just curious your thoughts on kind of the u.s. discount rate? >> i think that's absolutely true, and i think that is, you know, to some, to a large extent, we talked about it earlier, we're sort of using

some of that good will in different ways, and eroding it, and we're going to rely a lot less -- be able to rely a lot less on it than we have the less 10, 15 years. just thinking, china's been a good partner in my ways in terms for a number of years in sort of subsidizing our deficits and our endless borrowing and low savings. that's kind of ending. india is the growing country the next decade. that's not a high savings country. that's much more of a high cap x kind of economy. it's going to be a different world. and we're not going to have the ability to rely on countries, china, japan, maybe saudi arabia, to buy some of our -- some of our debt. it's 1.8 trillion every single year. i mean, you just think through that, and it's really hard to see -- at some point markets will break. >> professor gomes, thank you for joining us. >> thank you, melissa. >> i think -- no, he's a bit

more sang win in terms of his view in debt to gdp, and i'm no historian, but no developed economy in the history of mankind has reached 135% debt to gdp, we're getting close to that. just a thought. and in terms of yields, i think tim and i both agree, yields are going higher. i understand they're volatile here, but we've broken, like, a 40-year downtrend in the ten-year yield, and i still think, though yields can, you know, sort of plfluctuate lower coming up, a shakeup in the vice trade. why they're pulling back on the pints. plus, is it time to purify your portfolio? one area hitting record highs. can the run continue? "fast money" is back in two. at g has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work.

and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. - "best thing i've ever done." that's what freddie told me. - it was the best thing i've ever done, and- - really? - yes, without a doubt! - i don't have any anxiety about money anymore. - great people. different people, that's for sure, and all of them had different reasons for getting a reverse mortgage, but you know what, they all felt the same about two things: they all loved their home, and they all wanted to stay in that home. and they all wanted to stay in that home. - [announcer] if you're 62 or older and own your home, you could access your equity to improve your lifestyle. a reverse mortgage loan eliminates your monthly mortgage payments and puts tax-free cash in your pocket.

call the number on your screen. - why don't you call aag... and find out what a reverse mortgage can mean for you? - [announcer] call right now to receive your free no-obligation info kit. call the number on your screen. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

welcome back to "fast money." shares of altria jumping today on its announced plan for it to slash its shares . it will have an 8% stake after the sale.

ab falling on the news, even suspended trading briefly in belgium. >> from a bud perspective, the announcement of a secondary is never good. you figure out the pricing and the market will figure it out. it is probably an opportunity for bud. this is a move, i'm long altria, i've been long awhile. and at times, you've been concerned about, are they able to continue to grow earnings enough to keep a 9.5% dividend? and this basically says they're now upping the buy-back to 3.4, 2.4 sale. the growth also guide is now 2% to 4.5%. i think shareholders should be really happy about this, and this is a company that has been able to divest some out of the tobacco space and into other parts of the consumer parts of cpg, so, it's -- in a world where free cash flow jgeneratin companies are attractive for some investors in some part of their portfolio, they just got better. >> two years sideways trade, seemingly breaking out now. trough valuation, which has been the case for awhile.

you can actually start to make a feasible argument to be long this stock for a move maybe back up to 50. percentage wise, that's significant. i don't think it's that outlandish. >> early in the pot days, in the pot story, there was talk about a cigarette company, tobacco company -- >> right. >> merging or buying assets from a pot company. have we gotten to that point yet now or no? >> you've seen british tobacco is in canada. places where they can be federallfederal ly legal. if anyone can operate in a compliant manner, they're great at it. and they're great at marketing and their distribution channels are what it's all about. yes, i think that opportunity is there for big tobacco. they're just not going to do it until it's federally legal. coming up, are all oil stocks created equally? we're drilling into one part of the energy market that is beating the competition this year. why these names could be fueling up even more gains. we're pumping up your portfolio when "fast money" returns.

i'm not an actor. i'm just a regular person. some people say, "why should i take prevagen? i don't have a problem with my memory." memory loss is, is not something that occurs overnight. i started noticing subtle lapses in memory. i want people to know that prevagen has worked for me. it's helped my memory. it's helped my cognitive qualities. give it a try. i want it to help you just like it has helped me. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription.

trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab.

my name is oluseyi and some of my favorite moments throughout my life are watching sports with my dad. now, i work at comcast as part of the team that created our ai highlights technology, which uses ai to detect the major plays in a sports game. giving millions of fans, like my dad and me, new ways of catching up on their favorite sport. welcome back to "fast money." energy stocks have been underperforming crude prices this year, with the underlying commodity up 13%, versus less

than 9% for the xle. but one part of the sector has been surging. pippa stevens has more. >> we're talking about the refiners. hitting record highs today, outperforming the broader energy complex. fuel demand has remained study, while refinery utilization has pulled back, which has lifted product prices and therefore refiners margins. ahead of the spring and summer driving season, gasoline futures are already up nearly 30% this year. the widely followed 3-2-1 crack spread has come down sharply, but it's still over $20, which, again, was called phenomenal, noting they were in the single di digits and sometimes even negative. ukraine has targeted russian refineries in recent days, and morgan stanley pointed to an extended upcycle for the current players. >> pippa, thank you.

>> great work. >> does her work. >> listen, i remember when paul came on this show -- >> yeah. >> i think it was early 2022, early, and he mention ed marathon. $65 stock. and i started looking at it. and it made sense what he said. look at it now. all-time high. phillips 66 we've known about. all-time high. valero, absolutely the sweet spot. so, these stocks all continue to work. these moves have been nuts -- anymore crazy than some of the things you've seen in technology? absolutely not. so, i still think there's room in energy. >> yeah, also the multiples are much, much lower, obviously. but x in my helm trade, working out nicely. a little bit -- >> the x in your helm trade? >> yeah, xle. >> hold on. how does that -- i don't understand. >> it's an -- >> you're a smart girl, quaker. that's not how you do it. but anyway -- >> it is what it is. >> yes. >> if i had done that, you'd

be -- karen does it, she gets dispensation, which is fine, by the way. >> i give courtney a hard time. >> i do. >> i think he needs to hear -- you did a great job with your clam. >> yes. i mean, nobody -- >> blicep. >> nobody at this point, nobody can touch it. if you look at the clam, it's doing pretty well right now. >> good-looking clam. >> in terms of energy, tim, your blicep, the c is chevron. >> it is, and i tell you what, the big names, depending on what part of their business is actually upstream, midstream, downstream, this is part of why they're integrated. in that space, i talked about shchevron is the c in blicep. i actually think they're even more interesting on some level. but i did choose c in chevron for blicep. >> yeah. up next, final trades.

(grandpa vo) i'm the richest guy in the world. hi baby! (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions. (woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me.

(man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you have everything you need to sell online and in person. you can have your inventory, payments, and customers in sync across all the places you sell. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions to finding success on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone.

get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪) time for the final trade. tim? >> altria. i think there's more cash flow coming, possibly more divestitures and maybe cannabis at some point. >> karen? >> yes, all ulta. i want to hear the call. i like it, but i think you'll be able to buy it lower. >> dan? >> yeah, qqq puts. looking out a couple months. look cheap. >> did you know it's like the 25th anniversary of the qqq this week? >> wow. >> nthey rang the bell. >> oddly enough, it's the 25th birth day of tim adami, who made

me a father. >> timmy! >> that's great. >> colorful show tonight. a lot of dramatic pauses. >> fun. >> fun. >> fun, fun. >> halliburton continues to go higher. >> thank you for watching "fast." "mad money" with jim cramer ar rhtowsttsig n. here tomorrow 5:00 for more. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. i'm just trying to make a little money for you. my job, not just to entertain but to put everything in co context. so call me 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. investing isn't easy. but it can be a whole lot easier and much less daunting with a little instruction. the hope i