>> and astera labs. >> so, the question of how much this innovation actually turns into productivity that matters to the broader economy and matters to investors in the market. >> yeah, meantime, we did have all the major averages finish the day higher. the s&p closing at a new record high, 5178, we'll continue to monitor that, as well. that does it for us here at "overtime." >> “fast money” starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. steals and deals in retail from go private talks of nordstrom to opening the books at macy's, we'll talk matchmaking and the state of the consumer coming up. plus, dip and rip. shares of nvidia rebounding. this, the day after announcing its new blackwell a.i. chips in front of a packed house. we'll break down the semi trade from here. later, bitcoin's bad week. what is behind the crypto crumble. a bounce-back for the builders, inside today's strong housing data. and emojis, what they can tell

you about how retail investors are feeling right now. we'll explain. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- steve grasso, karen finer man, dan nathan, and guy adami. the s&p rising 0.6%. the nasdaq up 0.4%. we'll get to that in a minute, but first, new signs that the retail sector is ripe for some dealmaking. shares of nordstrom popping more than 9% after reporting of its founding family is looking to take the company private. this news coming after similar attempts six years ago was ultimately unsuccessful, but it is far from the only deal percolating in this consumer space. macy's saying it's agreed to open its books to potential acquirers. it and kohl's have attracted activist interest in weeks. and there's tapestry's deal for capri, which is expected to close later this year. and shares of american apparel

giant gildan activewear popped after the board said it has several potential buyers for the company. is this just the start of a coming wave of m&a activity? t karen? >> it's a ton of activity. pa chin coe, which is a game probably before your time, but guy played it a lot. >> damn straight i did. >> so, the -- nordstrom, to me, is sort of the most interesting and actually the least likely. sort of the idea of a family raising debt to buy out the company and i think at one time maybe there was a real estate aspect of it. so, many of those pieces aren't in vogue anymore, but the cost of capital has gone up tremendously. and you don't want to be an indebted retailer trying to compete in this world. so, that one is a little harder to fathom. i could see maybe a merger with another company, that may be, that's in the same business,

similar in the macy's situation, which -- it is interesting to me how this is evolving. i do think that -- here's a chance now for brigade to show they're serious, and they do really have financing, and they've said, if you can show us your books and we, you know, we think there's more value there, so we could see a deal worth more than 24, which is their current bid -- it's not a bid, this is our level, it's not a formal bid. so, that's sort of interesting. the gildan story is a really odd one, where the ceo was thrown out last year for not doing enough, not really being a ceo, apparently. that is sort of interesting, because i believe that's a decent chance it gets sold. this whole space was so cheap. so, that's not surprising that now there's interest. >> that's -- that's exactly right. the whole space has been cheap. and i think what this tells you is, the market is saying, maybe it's a bit of an all-clear sign, we're through covid, the recession that everybody's talking about is not coming, the

valuations make sense, we can wrap our head around the business models. now is the time to sort of act. and maybe that's going to be true. some of these stocks, pull up aber com bee and fitch right quick, you look at this stock, you think, oh, my god, this is a parabolic move. it has to be expensive -- even despite the move we've seen, it's still actually a very reasonable valuation for some of these names. so, you can understand why people are getting their arms around them. i still think -- we'll talk about macy's in a second, that probably sort of lef states sle up. we looked at home depot, i don't know if it makes the prior all-time high, but this is one that probably continues to grind. >> you are probably watching cap p capri. >> i sold it around $50. it just really hasn't performed the way -- it bounced that first day when i was announced, as soon as it was announced. really didn't hold price.

kind of fell in a precipitous fashion. i sold my tap estry. as soon as we were doing this, i knew guy was going to bring up aber com bee, it's up 400% on a one-year performance. >> it was better than nvidia last year. >> right. >> if you look at american eagle, same type of thing. that kmchart is smooth, easy. it's funny, the things that are gaining in the retail space that it's not really the department stores. so, macy's has that 24 bid, it's not -- you said $6.6 billion, is what they're willing to pay, are they willing -- and i saw the interview, when they originally said, maybe a couple weeks ago, what would you be willing to pay? i'm not going to bid against myself, but a considerable amount more. so, macy's still in play for another couple of bucks to the upside. >> i feel like retail's a space that you once poo-pooed, dan,

saying the consumer is going to fall out of bed, blah, blah, blah -- >> it's all blah, blah, blah. it's interesting. we spend a lot of time talking about dick's last week. we saw that move to the upside when that stock blew out to an all-time high. and we've seen foot locker. we're going to get nike in a couple of days. i think for every dick's, you know what i'm talking about, steve, there is a foot locker. so, that's why -- >> if i had a dime for every time i heard that. >> so, my point is, i want to hear what chewy has to say about online sales. i want to hear what -- how nike is navigating the kind of geopolitical environment, i want to hear about the breakdown between online and stores and that sort of stuff. but again, i think a lot of this stuff kind of seems kind of one-off. look, look at a costco, they didn't see an uptick for a week after it reported its earnings, so, i guess my point is, it's easy to poo-poo this stuff, but it is getting more stock specific. and you throw in the potential

for m&a, because some of the dogs end up becoming darlings. >> tomorrow morning, we'll see cigna jewelry, which had a very difficult pandemic, because nobody was getting engaged, and it takes years of dating before you get ingauged. they are trying work through that. apparently that's how it works. that stock is not expensive, 10% short interest. that, if they come up with decent numbers, that could really pop tomorrow. >> they should be coming back to p prepandemic levels, but at this point, if you do the two-year sort of delay -- >> yes, i think the inflection point is upon us. >> interesting, dick's sporting goods -- >> yes. >> comes out dks, pull up a chart, you'd be like, oh, my god, it's got to be extepensiex actually no. probably had, i don't know, 11% eps growth. just came off at the quarter i think on march 15th. a bevy of analysts raised their price target. i think the average price target is $211.25 and they are probably too cheap. i think what you're going to see

over the next couple of weeks are analysts that will continue to sort of chase the move to the upside. >> and seasonality, you're going into their sweet spot, with a lot of sports coming back out. >> yeah. let's get more on the outlook for m&a in the retail space with gerald storch. what do you think is in the air at this point in the business cycle that is creating the stir in retail m&a? >> well, it's not at all unusual when you have troubled businesses or sectors to look at different olutions. if you were the nordstrom family, i'm not surprised they are looking at something different. their stock has been marooned at the same level for over 20 years. and they made an offer before, it was rejected by the board. it's kind of tough when you're inside, you need the board to approve it, when you go private transaction, but what they're doing, clearly, isn't working, particularly for department stores. and so, there are obvious pararells between the nordstrom situation and macy's one. in both cases, they are looking to see, can we take this

private? maybe we can run it differently and do things that are more revolutionary, in terms of the business model, you know, because you can make changes outside of the public eye without that kind of glare of having to make every quarter. and so, they have in common this notion that being private might be a better way to run it. >> it's karen, thanks for being on. the history of retail sort of it willers with leveraged buyouts that didn't work. so, what do you think the new model is, given where rates are? how much equity do you think you need to have to be able to do a deal where the company isn't burdened by too much debt? >> well, i think the first deals done in retail were done at higher leverage ratios. i saw a study recently, it's very clear that was true. there was a sense these retail companies were cash machines. then you had, you know, competition from the internet, for example, e-commerce and amazon. need to invest in this whole new platform on top of everything that you had in front of you. and you had rising competition, in the case of the department stores from the off-price

retailers like tjmaxx and ross stores. and so, the new leverage that would be applied to these companies, i would believe, would be less than what you saw in the early private equity deals, so, people have gotten smarter as they've seen the history of what's going on here. >> just on the side of karen's question there, what do i make of this environment right now, as far as retail, is it to dan's point, stock pickers, which we can all agree with? what do we see in the environment? what's the landscape right now in the cycle of retail companies? >> look, there are clear winners and losers. you say stock pickers -- some companies are doing well. the consumer is clearly getting stretched, most recent retail sales report, clearly, not good. no matter what you want to say about what happened last fall or didn't happen last fall. it hasn't been so good lately. companies like walmart, tjx, costco, amazon, have done well

regardless. and consumers are flocking to those names. and you mentioned five below tomorrow. i would expect similar kind of results out of them. there has been very little change, by the way, who the winners and losers are. if you look at what happened in the third quarter of last year compared to the fourth, almost every retailer that posted negative same-store sales in the third quarter posted very similar, by the way, negative same-store sales in the fourth quarter. same thing as you look at companies that were positive, again, like the walmarts, tjxs, they didn't change very much. so, walmart was up 4.9% in third quarter, up 4% in the fourth quarter. the stocks may bounce around on the earnings days, because expectations have been set for differential performance, but then what you see, they're doing the same thing they did before, in the case of the department stores, they were steeply negative in the third quarter and still negative in the fourth quarter. and the outlooks are not very good. similar for a company like target. they were negative 4.9 same store sales, negative 4.4 in the

fourth quarter, while walmart was up 4.9 and 4. so, that gap is one of the highest in history. so the winners are clearly winning, and the losers clearly aren't doing so well. if you want any single metric, look at same-store sales, that's going to tell you what's going to happen over a meaningful long cycle. >> when you think about the retail landscape, which retailer gets taken out? what's top on your list? >> by the way, i -- you know, i want to be public about the fact, i'm actually on the slate for archouse and brigade, that directors have nominated for macy's, so, i think that's a real situation, or i wouldn't be involved there. the department stores have been struggling for a very long time. we're talking decades. and it's clear that what they're doing is not working. every so often, oh, we're reinventing the store, we're cutting expenses, we're closing more stores, and all that's done is give market share to the off-price players to the discount stores, to the amazons

of the world. look at this. you've got -- you talk about nordstrom, worth about $3 billion, equity cap. kohl's, $3 billion. macy's, $6 billion. dillards, the best one, $7 billion. the total department store sector hasekequity cap of $19 billion. $175 billion market value for the off-pricers compared to 19 for the department stores. remember the old saying, why pay department store prices, that was the tjmaxx slogan for years and years in their advertising -- the question now is, you know, why pay prices for the stocks of department stores in today's world? clearly, they have, you know, lost tremendous value to these other sectors. without even getting to discount stores, walmart and target, or to costco, the e-commerce. the world has shifted, and we

need to see some kind of a change. >> the storch portfolio has no department stores in it? is that right? >> as i mentioned, it doesn't mean i'm not involved in these situations. but the -- the growth in retail has been in the obvious places. and the -- meanwhile, the older situations, you know, without a dramatic change, it would be -- we're talking about 20 y years-plus of similar stagnation. kohl's is the same thing, by the way. for all of these names. so, why do we think it's going to get better now? i just think that's just foolish, unless there is dramatic and meaningful change. >> gerry, thank you. great to get your take. gerry storch. >> my pleasure. >> jmorgan stanley put out a list, on there was kohl's and under armour. >> well, that is -- steve, i'm sure, has thoughts, i'll go back to dillard's real quick. three, four-year chart in dillard's, $30 stock in the

height of covcovid, june of 2020-ish, look at the stock now. they reported what was a good quarter, but year over year, earnings actually decreased, yet valuation is still compelling. and they're sort of running laps around their compecompetitors. so, despite this move, you see exactly what i'm looking at. i mean, this stock, there are certain stocks that despite the moves still have value, and this is one of them. let's get back to the market rally. major indices closing well in the green with the s&p posting its 18th record close of the year. meantime, the yield on the ten-year softening, retreating from almost one-month highs, but the move in crude stoking inflation fears. up 17% this year. so, how challenging is this backdrop for the fed right now? what are we expecting, if anything, out of this meeting tomorrow? >> so, i think what the market has told us, they're going to do nothing. what i think they're going to do is talk down or talk around tweaking qt. because you can't have qt, if you are setting the stage for a

rate cut, you can't be letting stuff fall off your balance sheet at the same time. because one is dovish, one's hawkish. so, you have to do something with qt before we even talk about rate cuts. >> karen? going to change anything, you think? >> ah -- i mean, i don't think they should do anything, i think inflation is heading the wrong way, and if we look at oil, we talk about that all the time, oil, going into -- we're almost at the driving season, oil was about $14 lower this time last year. that's a pretty big move. so, i don't think they should do anything. but if they do, then they got to do the cut and talk really hawkish. >> it's become a real political, i mean, you saw the letter from elizabeth warren, saying, you better cut rates because it's hurting the alternative energy companies. >> ywe mentioned it last night. they're entitled to their opinion. it's the absolute wrong opinion, in my opinion. i think it will hurt more people than it will help. but again, politics gets in the way. to karen's point, though, the

two most important commodities out there are crude oil and copper, and gasoline underneath crew oil. gasoline is up significantly, why these refiners are doing so well. and copper's breaking out right before our very eyes. so, i don't know what would force the fed to move in a meaningful way. and quite frankly, i'm not a big fan of the federal reserve, but i think jerome powell has been steadfast in his want to slay this inflation dragon. >> i don't think anyone's listening to bernie and warren right now, and i think the biden administration realizes that they have, what, 7 1/2, 8 months in the election, and, you know, if they don't have inflation at least the idea of it under control, i don't -- i would suspect that they're not dying for what would be politicized rate cuts that would just juice the stock market or juice the economy if inflation were to become imbedded, because that's the thing that they are getting very poor marks on right now, as it relates to the economy. and we can all sit around here,

unemployment's still below 4%, housing is okay, all those sorts of things, i know consumer credit is ticking up, but if that stuff starts to go the other way, that would be a real problem -- >> you got to cut -- you got to cut before that stuff goes the other way or else they're going to be late. so, that's the misconception, i think the market has, is that we're waiting for unemployment to spike higher or waiting for defaults to spike higher. if we wait and we see that, they're late. that's the only reason why it might seem the wrong thing to do, but they have to do it to stay ahead of it. >> all right. coming up, we are checking in on nvidia after its big gtc conference. what they had to say about all aspects of the company. more on the semi trade next. plus, builders bouncing back. housing stocks in the green after strong housing data. is the group building up a strong foundation? don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. this is "fast money" with

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like my dad and me, new ways of catching up on their favorite sport. welcome back to "fast money." nvidia shares erasing early losses and closing the day up a percent. the chipmaker unveiled its latest chip platform blackwell last night.

jensen huang sitting down with jim cramer this morning. >> the application software is being offered by ansys and cadence, autodesk, adobe, and others -- our technology is integrated into theirs. our technology is integrated into all these computer makers. and the world connects it together, and that's the reason why nvidia is everywhere. >> you can catch more of that interview, 6:00 p.m. eastern time tonight on "mad money." elsewhere in the a.i. trade, supermicro, shares tumbling 9% after the company filed to sell an additional 2 million shares to purchase inventory, expand manuf manufacturing, and research and development. the company was intended to do that premarket today, it got delayed, which is sort of unusual. so, there's some other little drama surrounding that share sale for supermicro. >> this is the second one, right, over the course of the last couple weeks -- good for

them, by the way. >> they should. >> exactly what they should be doing. it's not ridiculously expensive on valuation, but given the stock move, karen says this all the time. you have to take advantage of it, without question. nvidia price action today was very good. early on today, it was looking like it continued to want to break down from two fridays, again reversal, and the fact it closed positive on the day is encouraging. let's continue to see what happens over the next week or so. i still go back to that friday of two weeks ago, the reversal, say that might have been a top, but i mean, you sort of -- you know, be your own guide at this point in this name. >> rosenblatt securities says they'll likely be sold out of the blackwell chip through 2025 already. through next year. >> well, nvidia's everywhere, mel. >> apparently. >> one of the things that's interesting, amd had a bad day today. amd is down 20% from the highs it made a couple weeks ago in that big reversal day. so, what's interesting to me, there's a lot of dispersion in this space. we saw broadcom report, the

stock has barely seen an uptick, so, it's interesting that the s semi trade is now becoming increasingly concentrated around nvidia. nvidia, no doubt about it, trades well. it is consolidating here, in and around that $900 level. when it's down, people buy it. seems like there's no bad headline for this stock, but i just say this, that guy walked out there for two hours, walked around the stage in front of 16,000 people that were gagging over every word of his. people -- just come to your senses a little bit. i mean, like, this is a company that produces a product that you don't even touch. it's not even in your pocket like an iphone or anything like that. the last time we've seen this sort of excitement was in and around apple, and you can say this, we're going to do this every night, you can say this, it has gained a trillion dollars in market cap this year. this quarter. it's anticipating blackwell, it's anticipating being sold out for a year. all of this stuff, so, that's it. have fun with it. >> still doesn't mean that -- it still doesn't mean it can go

further. i don't think that's what you're saying. >> it could. >> or the markets were flat-footed when it came to anticipated what a.i. should be and would become and should -- when you are saying it dwayned a trillion. a trillion ago, maybe we should have started the climb earlier. >> i sort of think there's something else going on today, which is him talking about, we're everywhere, right? he's partnering up with everyone. >> everybody. >> right? so, if he captures all of them, you have nowhere else to go. >> right. >> and that's the part, to me, that's really interesting. and a.i., of course, we're in, i don't know what inning, not the first anymore, but early, early. and if he's going to be, you know, just sort of marking his spots everywhere, everybody's got to go to him, that's -- that's a whole other thing. that's kind of fascinating. >> the other thing he said today in jim's interview, everything we do starts with software. >> yes. >> really went out trying to sell the notion that it is a platform, if they are making the partnerships, it's harder to switch, you're in that system, developers are building on that, and then, you know, you go out a

year and where is amd left in that? that's the concern. >> and they have, to karen's point, we've been talking about this, they're 85% market share in this space. if there's supply/demand log jams here, they are going to remain in that seat. if you talk about valuation, you look at a forward pe, invid ya trades less expensive than microsoft. less expensive than amazon. don't look at the pe now. nvidia forward pe is 36 times. >> even among chips it's not the top five in valuation. >> exactly. which means it has tremendous amount of runway before this gets crazy. >> it was intel, they had all the market share, except you had to have at least one other supplier so you didn't get caught with nothing. is that where we are right now? nvidia -- >> there's amd. maybe intel to some degree. >> intel hopes, yeah. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. >> there's no place like home. and builders are putting hammer

to nail, as the housing market looks to recover. the data sending those stocks higher, next. plus, and speaking of real estate, why our next guest says commercial property is still looking for a bottom. the signs coming out of the credit market. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

welcome back. we have a news alert on a canadian national selling trade secrets to china about an american company. eamon javers has the details. eamon? >> this just coming in from a press release from the department of justice. they say a canadian national was arrested earlier today in nassau county, new york, and this canadian national was attempting to sell electric vehicle battery trade secrets to undercover officers. the person involved here allegedly believed that those undercover officers were legitimate business people he could sell these secrets to. now, it looks as if, from the context here, that the company involved as the victim of all of this was, in fact, tesla, given the description of the situation that the department of justice lays out in this press release.

they are saying that a man, a canadian national, resident of the people's republic of china, was arrested for conspiring to send to undercover law enforcement officers trade secrets that belonged to a leading u.s.-based electric vehicle company. they only identify here as victim company number one. but again, from the circumstances here laid out in the document, it does appear that this may be tesla that was involved in this transaction, and melissa, the interesting thing here is, this person was employed by a company allegedly that was sold to tesla back in 2019, and has been living in china since then. so, it's not clear exactly how much damage was done to tesla by these trade secrets walking out the door of that company, but the individual has been living in china for quite a long time, was arrested in long island today. back over to you. >> eamon, thank you. eamon javers. meanwhile, home builders getting a boost today. all up more than 2% with names

like lennar and kb homes in the green. this after housing data for february came in better than expected. housing starts up 1.52 million compared to forecasted 1.43 million. building permits reaching their highest level since august. part of it is seasonality, the weather was better in the past month. but still, very strong showing. >> i mean, we've talked about this now for the last two years. interest rates, i get it, it's important. not nearly as important as supply/demand imbalances, which still haven't gone away. here's the, in my opinion, the only -- well, one of the main risk, the unemployment rate. we saw it move from 3.7 to 3.9, if that continues, which, by the way, i think it will, i think home builder trade might get extended. if you believe that unemployment is going to stay at current levels, then you can make a very compelling case that these stocks are still a buy at these levels. >> home retail insulated, karen?

>> maybe that's part of this retail thing, as well. i always wonder, though, what would happen to the home builders if we saw a series of interest rate cuts? you know, the knee jerk would be, oh, up, but at some point, you unleash all of this existing home inventory that hasn't been on the market. i we're far from that, but i think it would be an interesting dynamic. >> right. i think dr horton, the last time i was on, dr horton has been underperforming the space, and they are a spec builder. so, if you start to see rates even have a glimpse of starting to come in, people are willing to lift the leg and say, i could always refinance, but the mortgage rates have to be going in the right direction in order for them to lock up a mortgage that's much higher than they want to ultimately have. so, dhi has been a name that i think could catch up once we start to actually see rates start to begin to fall. >>. is the bottom in for commercial real estate? our next guest isn't convinced. the signs he's seeing in the

credit market that could be pointing to more pain ahead. drew mcknight joins us on that, plus how problems for the banks could just be getting started. "fast money" is back in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks closing in the green today. the s&p notching a record cloud. the dow jumping more than 300 points, and the nasdaq up 0.4%. shares of international paper jumping 11%, leading the s&p 500, its best day in more than four years as the company names a new ceo. shares of pinduoduo lower today after reports the company shopping app temu is looking to lessen its reliance on the united states market. dan, you brought this up before. because they spent so much to get into the u.s., that was actually benefiting google and meta, which, the reverse could be true, it would hurt google and meta. >> obviously this plays into the whole kind of tit for tat that's going on with tiktok, too. how we kind of treat their companies who are trying to be here. it's been a huge boon, i think, for google and meta, but let's see if that happens. the other thing is, they are

losing a lot of money being here, and so, you know, again, they're going to likely shift that, if the political winds change a little bit. >> you think they lose a lot of money when they send me a $4.99 bathing suit in a package from china? how do you think about it in terms of the impact on retail? >> well, i think that it's -- you think who has really been hurt, it's h and m, they've really been hurt, etsy was up a bunch this morning on that, ended up not up very much at all, but it's -- i didn't think originally of your take on it, advertising dollars, that huge super bowl spend -- >> shop like a billionaire. >> all billionaires buy $4.99 kids bathing suits from china. >> look, you mean -- there are now two people on this desk that can probably know what that feels like, and one of them is our next guest. the other one is karen finerman. >> oh, shop like a billionaire? >> exactly. >> nearly a trillion dollars in commercial real estate loans are

set to mature this year. that's an increase of almost 30% from a year ago, and that might be just one of the concerns looming over the credit market. drew mcknight joins us here on set. welcome to our set here in new york city. >> thanks for having me. >> the last time we saw drew was in miami. so, what -- you think we're at the top of the first inning when it comes to the problems we're going to face in commercial real estate? how does this sort of unfold? is it sort of a rolling default? a crisis situation? how do you see that? >> i do. i think it's top of the first inning. i think if you look at the number of defaults to date, it's very, very low. why is that? it's a host of reasons. they've been able to extend maturities, but if you really think about it, there's capital structures that are pside down. it's not just in office, it's always in multifamily. as you think about this opportunity and what's going to have to happen, real estate was the biggest beneficiary of low rates. that was the prime beneficiary,

and unless rates can reset quickly, i just don't see an easy solution, you know, how does that play out, if you take a step back and think about the crisis in the early '90s, there were 700 institutions that fail ed. we've had five so far. i'm not saying we're going to have that deep of a -- of a recession, but you know, if you think about rtc, it was very centralized to real estate. our own view is the economy might be able to hold up okay, even if we have this real estate reset, but for folks that own real estate levered, it could be very painful. >> drew, it's interesting. one of your peers, jon gray, the president of blackstone last week, i think he said real estate prices have bottomed, and if you move fast, you can buy as sets at cheap prices. that seems to be very contradictory to what you're saying. you said we're in the first inning of a reset here. >> i think they have a very

large and long time horizon, so, in the context of trying to put $100 billion to work, maybe you need to get really aggressive right now. i think in trying to pick a bottom, i you this it's really early. a lot of times, prices will go lower for real estate, i think almost across the board, and if you think about what's going -- how are interest rates going to go lower, because i think that will be part of what has to happen in order for real estate to reset, the only interest rates are going to go lower is if the economy really slows down and if the fed can actually start to cut, which, again, if you look at what's going on, boj just hiked today for the first time, i think, in 17 years, i think we're actually far away from them really being able to cut meaningfully. >> do you think we're going to see some sort of tipping point event, like, a couple of big asset sales that force everyone to mark their books lower, which triggers all kinds of -- more collateral, whatever it might be, where liquidity crunch

really quickly follows? >> you know, i think it -- it's hard to know. i think if you look back at what happened last year, with silicon valley bank and some of the -- some of the crisis we had last year, that was really centralized on a handful of banks that had very specific asset liability mismatch and we still had a deposisit flight th was massive. i think with real estate, every bank has exposure, and to your point, if you think back to the global financial crisis, it didn't matter which bank was transacting. if any bank transacted at any price, everyone went through every bank's balance sheet and if loans traded at 70 cents, every bank's balance sheet is marked at 70 cents. i don't think that's correct, but if we do enter that stage of this sort of crisis, i think you could have that. >> drew, what will be the warning soons for the audience? small and regional banks rolling over again? is it something in the hyg, the high yield credit etf? what should we be looking for?

>> i think what will be the trigger will start to be the actual transactions. you'll see asset sales occur. right now, there are banks that do want to delever that want to sell assets. they need to raise equity or raise reserves in order to do that. to -- steve and i were talking to the healthy banks, i think they're going to be able to take the reserves, they have the earnings. this is a good environment. and i believe the strong will get stronger and i think the smaller banks that aren't positioned will either have to get bought or get liquidated. >> you've acquired performing loans, office loans, specifically, at just cents on the dollar, right? 50, 60 cents on the dollar. so, where else are you seeing these opportunities right now? especially, you though, since we're in the early innings and still expecting rough times ahead, you are still outthere buying assets? >> again, i do think one of the things jon gray said was, you need to be buying as things are bottoming. if you can buy loans at a healthy enough discount and getting coupons along the way,

you have the ability and downside protection, we're also very active in forward flows, with mortgage origination and consumer finance. and then -- i think real estate equity will be a big opportunity. i think it's going to be a long road ahead. >> drew, thank you for being with us. what are you looking for? >> well, it's why i asked the question. if there is a credit event, or in this -- let's back up for a second. a name like simon properties, stock's rallied 2% since the october low. in the absence of bad news, people are going to sort of flock to these names. but if you are in the drew mcknight camp and think there's -- something's going to happen along the way and we are in the early innings, these things should start to roll over. the thing that i will continue to look at, the hyg, which basically doesn't move until it does, and that's going to bea warning sign. >> one thing drew said that i really agree with is, problem for regionals, not a problem, maybe, an opportunity, for bigger. to six that way. long jpmorgan, i'm long nycb

that the group -- coming up, bitcoin's bad week. dropping below 63,000 at one point today, more than $10,000 lower than the all-time high just last week. is the crypto bull run already over? plus, survey says -- we'll reveal the latest editor in chief poll with caleb silver. that's right after this. constant contact makes it easy. helping him craft the perfect message like a marketing genius so his email stands out. constant contact delivers all the tools you need to help your business grow. if billy can do it so can you. get started today at constantcontact.com. helping the small stand tall. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the

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welcome back. bitcoin falling below 63,000 at one point today. that's a steep drop from last week's record high of over $73,000. the rest of the crypto space falling in sympathy. microstrategy, coinbase, and more all seeing significant drops today. jpmorgan warning that microstrategy's bitcoin purchases could make bitcoin's fall even worse. the company has bought $1.5 billion in bitcoin over the last two weeks alone. steve, you're in ethereum -- >> i'm in ethereum, i'm in i-bit, one of the efts for bitcoin, and if you have 11 etfs, there's going to be a lot more people to sort of catch these moves. bnd these moves are extremely volatile.

look at the long-term chart on bitcoin. it's not immune to the ups and downs. i do believe now you have a host of people in funds that are able to buy it, so, the low -- and you can't prove or disprove the counterfactual, but ultimately, it should trade in a lot tighter channel than it used to, and with that many more people that are buying it, i think it's going higher. i've been buying on dips. >> i've been wondering, is it this idea the fed is going to be more disciplined and that's going to be one of the underpinnings, fed going nuts, but you would think gold -- gold has not kept up to the downside, better for you gold bugs, significantly underperforming gold, so -- >> interesting, drew mentioned bank of japan, first time in 17 years. i think that's part of it, as well. i think if this is a fed that's going to continue, at least if they're going to sound hawkish, that is counter to what the bit count people want them to do. so, this move, to me, it makes

sense. >> it's interesting, you mentioned gold and what it's been doing. gold gained $1.4 trillion in the last month, bitcoin, up 50% -- gold up is 10%, bitcoin is up 50%, it's gained half that in market cap. so, there's still a bid for gold. coming up, why retail traders are seeing markets as a glass half full. and where they're putting their money to work right now. details when "fast money" returns. with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo at ameriprise financial our advice

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news alert here on chipotle. the stock is going to split. >> yeah, the first in its history, chipotle's board approving a 50 for 1 stock split. you can see the stock trading just about at $2,800. it would be become effective on the close of june 25th. you would need to buy the stock by june 18th in order to qualify, and it would begin trading on a post-split basis on wednesday, june 26th. this would, i imagine, help them be included in more indexes, i would imagine, if you bring that price down. melissa? >> yep.

the dow seems a little bit more likely, with the split. bertha, thank you. and we're going to see the stock pop, because that makes no sense at all, but that's what happens, right? that's what happens. >> mathematically, it makes no sense, but for other reasons, as bertha says, it makes sense. a lot of beans, by the way. >> which you don't want. >> no. >> even with the big run in stocks this year, individual investors are still optimistic on the market. editor in chief caleb silver is here to dive into the results and reveal a new emoji heat map. this was a good one, because it really shows how investors feel right not about the markets, and that is, what, caleb? >> sometimes that knee jerk reaction is the one you want, and cue joe cocker, because they're feeling ing all right. more are cautiously optimistic. 49%. two-thirds say they are optimistic in some way. and a lot of them are expecting higher returns over the next six months, despite the fact that we've had 18 all-time hikes already this year, a lot of

pressure in different parts of the market. but they're feeling really good and ready to buy more. >> a lot of them, most of them, have money in money markets, though, do they intend on -- if they are feeling so good, why not put it into equities? >> we asked that question, and 60% said they have money market funds and half of them said they are ready to start moving that into stocks. all the sideline money, the 6.x trillion, that may come from retail investors, which could keep us at higher highs. >> yeah. the bubble is, where dan thinks there's a bubble, a.i., right? >> a.i.-related stocks, crypto, megacap tech, housing and real estate and internet and communication stocks. but they hold a lot of these in their portfolios and would buy more if they had more money. >> and what about crypto, too? because, again, you guys do a breakout on that, and do people, like, you guys have millions and millions of viewers who go to your site every month. so, talk to us about what we're seeing month over month, just

talking about the spot etfs and bitcoin. >> crypto was kryptonite up until this year, when the spot etfs came and we saw the big price spike. 1 in 10 are actually interested. bitcoin curious. we have more people actually more interested in it, probably because of those spot bitcoin etfs. the price, that rings bells in people's ears. >> and they're worried about the presidential election and inflation, all the stuff -- >> all the usual. >> caleb, great to see you, thank you. caleb silver. up next, final trades. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone.

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final trade time. steve? >> iot, it's samsara, internet of things. >> karen? >> yes, i'm staying short kre, which i put on against nycb. >> dan? >> the z in zebra, that would be zoom. hanging in there okay. >> guy?

>> i love caleb. i do. >> yes. >> he's great. and you guys are like, go back decades. >> he was a baby field producer and i was a baby reporter. >> and you are all grown up. >> nice. the nasdaq, on the secondary offering. you buy the weakness. >> all right, thank you for tching ing my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing feel for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to the woodstock of a.i., nvidia's tech conference. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is to explain the stuff. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or