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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  March 20, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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reporting on the same day, we're going to have to watch that closely. >> plus u.s. flash pmis, weekly jobless claims, a couple other things like existing home sales in the morning. we had record highs for all three of the major averages today, big post-federally. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" guns right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. a triple record day. the nasdaq, dow, and s&p all climbing to all-time highs as the fed signals three rate cuts are still in the plan this year. so, is this the green light investors have been waiting for? are there more risks just around the corner? plus, we're counting down to the first trades of the biggest ipo so far this year. will the platform's biggest users help the shares soar or will they be a bigger burden than boost? we'll have answers. and paramount peaks on reports of a lofty takeover bid. the cbo weighs in on the cost of
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weight loss drugs. and a burrito blowout. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, dan nathan, guy adami, and michael contopoulous. >> what was that? something broke. >> that was the sounds of records shattering. >> beginning of a billy joel song. >> that actually really -- >> we didn't know. >> she got us. >> the dow getting within 500 points of the 40,000 mark and the s&p closing above 5, 200 for the first time ever. the moves coming after the fed's decision to leave rates unchanged and maintain its projection for three quarter point cuts this year. the central bank did caution that it needs to see more evidence that inflation is easing before it makes a move. shorter term yields did pull back on the news, but the 30-year was up. steve liesman joins us now. steve? >> hey, melissa. yeah, fed chair powell and the
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fed's committee stuck to a modestly dovish outlook at the rate-setting meeting today, despite two months of disappointing inflation numbers. powell says it's still appropriate to cut rates later this year. the fed, the committee on average stuck to their three-cut forecast, despite those -- itself having higher inflation and growth forecast. and then fed also saying slow quantitative tightening, quote, fairly soon. powell downplayed the impact of the january and february inflation numbers. >> i take the two of them together, and i think they haven't really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward 2%. i don't think that story has changed. >> at the same time, the committee as a whole said it is not confident enough to cut rates, and the dot plot, or the individual fed members rate forecast skewed just a bit hawkish. instead of five officials below the median, there's now just one.
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nine or now at the median and nine are above it. so, a little bit of a shift to the right there. this is a fed that wants to cut rates, not before it is responsible but as soon as it is responsible to do so. one vote and one cut on average was taken away from the average official forecast. another bad inflation month and the market might be forced to rethink its bet on a june cut, with two more to follow, melissa. so, i wouldn't get too carried away on just how dovish the fed was today. >> how do you think about the idea that rates in '25 and '26 will be higher than in '24? >> i'm sorry, what do you mean by that? >> tim? >> i think he indicated that he thought it was going to be a shallower exit from, you knknow -- >> projection. >> well, they're down in '25, 3.9 from 4.6, they are seen
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coming down, just not as much as had been previously forecast. so, they did take one away. they also raised the -- the neutral rate by one-tenth, not a big deal. i am not all that concerned with what the fed thinks is going to happen next year, because i barely think they can figure out what's going to happen this year. >> yeah, i think the markets are on the same page as you one. >> real quick, steve. unexpected weakness in the labor market warrant a response, okay? now, that's the labor market in that vacuum. what do you think -- what's your interpretation of what that means, 4.3%, 4.5%? just, i'm curious your thoughts about that, because that sort of stuck out to me. >> i think you're in the neighborhood. i don't think it's going to be like an automatic, if we hit x, we'll do y. it will be the totality of the job market, how much payrolls have sunk, how much unemployment is going up, but it is interesting, guys, i thought one takeaway from today's meeting was there isn't anything i can
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point to, and maybe you all around the table there can figure it out, to say to powell, look, you're missing this clear and present danger and threat to the economy by not cutting immediately. it is not obvious to me where that weakness is. some guy might say, delinquencies, well, guess what, that's been stable for awhile. you can say the commercial real estate, the office market, well, guess what? fed says they're on top of that. every banker and their brother and sister know that they better be on top of that right now. you can talk maybe about, there's still regional bank issues out there with interest rates, well, they've had a year and change to get their act together on that. maybe i'm missing something, but it's unclear now and hard to say to powell, look, you're making a big mistake by not cutting right now. >> yeah, steve, i actually agree with you. most of those measures hit their lows last year, and are actually getting better now, but look at five-year break evens. i think we're at a one-year high. what do you think powell thinks
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about that? >> so, that's a more interesting question from a different standpoint. it was sort of the question i asked him, which is, what am i supposed to make of your commitment to fighting inflation if you're going to be keeping to those three cuts at the same time that you're raising your growth forecast and raising your inflation forecast? what it tells me, he's going to be patient with all this. he still appears to believe in the dynamic underneath the economy that has been pulling inflation down and does not believe that dynamic is especially tied to the growth dynamic. this is new, both for the fed and really for the whole idea of most wall street economists who thought, hey, we've got to have weaker growth in order to bring down inflation, so, i do think he missed an opportunity today to be a little hawkish and maybe get some currency out of that, but he doesn't seem like he really wants to rattle where everybody's at. i would say, i would not be over my skis before we have a sense of what's happening with march
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inflation numbers. i think you do three lousy numbers in a row, and we're going to have a different conversation come march. >> steve, thank you. steve liesman in washington for us. so, why all the records? record upon record upon record and this confirms it in terms of the price action in the markets. >> is it about real rates? we're coming off this, you know, into this period where we are right now, where inflation, now they want it down to 2%, prior to the pandemic, they wanted it up to 2%, we were dealing with the 0% interest rate, we have the upper end of 5.5% and we have inflation that basically stopped going down. and i think that's the message that i take away from what the fed had to say today. like, and what they have been saying, but for whatever reason, stock market investors don't care, because, like, still have this growth trajectory that is well above what people had thought over the last two years. and think about this, in 2022, we talked about it again and again, we had a bear market predicated on this recession that was going to happen in 2023, and now it's being pushed out to i don't even know when.
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at the end of the day, you tell me, and maybe michael -- are we restrictive with a 5.5 fed funds and inflation done going down where it is? maybe we are. i don't know, but it's not doing a lot to the economy right now. >> we're not restrictive. to me, it's clear as day. look at leading economic indicators, they've bottomed. look at pmis, they've bottomed. the stock market, nat all-time highs, bitcoin. tons of liquidity in the system. we're not restrictive. home prices are going back up, that's going to be a headwind to inflation later this year. and so, i think this idea, just because we're at 2% real rates, that's some magical number that's restrictive. you know, that's completely debunked at this point. >> and i would argue that the most important part of today's meeting is where he threw some dovish fuelon the fire which is talking about the balance sheet runoff. he kind of said, you know what? we don't have to move as fast, and by the way, some of that will take care of itself. but if every feed meting and the q&a is an art show, you read
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every word, you parse through it. pardon the expression, but i thought he goldilocks this one. he talked about his dual mandate. he said, hey, we're hitting on the labor market, but actually we could see the labor market weaken on the headline unemployment, but the participation rate could go up and it could be a great story, and meanwhile, we're concerned about price stability, but we're concerned about job growth. he said it all. i heard an economy and the statement, upgraded the economy. we all know what the stock market is doing, we know what the stock market's priced in. this was a dovish afternoon, because again, the balance sheet is not getting a whole lot smaller any time soon, as mike pointed out. financial conditions are so loose right now, and another great reason to have mike on the desk right now, if you look at high yield option adjusted spreads, we haven't been this tight since june of 2007 and we know what happened after that. i'm not saying it's about to happen, but the credit world is telling you -- no one is concerned about risk. i understand capital markets aren't as open as they were and
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what not, but credit spreads, stock markets, financial conditions, tell you, it's risk on and the fed did nothing to slow that down today. >> it's interesting, you know, in the fall, the market began to rally on the thoughts of six rate cuts. six, this year. >> now we're down to half of that. >> we took it down to three, the market sold off a little bit. he reiterated three and the market's at all-time highs. the market just wants to rally regardless. but there are -- listen, you can say what you want about the guy. in terms of the stock market, he's done a masterful job, without question. and it's hard to argue in terms of the economy. nothing's broken yet. unemployment is still below 4%, but things are on the surface, in my opinion, especially in the real acceleration of inflation and the green light that will give inflation as sets to move higher today. >> well, i thought, you know, for fed chair powell to sort of just be so dovish today, he really gave it away in some sense. he even addressed the fact that he thinks that he's comfortable
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with the idea that we've hit peak rates already, so, even if things worsen and things get hot, i don't know, they sort of boxed into a corner a little bit. >> we've seen the fed change their stance meaningfully over the years. they weren't going to hike and then -- >> but they've always left the door open. i felt like today they closed the door a little bit more. >> it will be data dependent. if you get hot inflation prints over the next couple months, the fed's tune is going to change. and when is the fed or the market actually priced things correctly? almost never. i'll wager to say that the market will start pricing in a hike at some point within the next 12 months. >> nice. >> wow. >> we're down to 20 bips for june, so, this was a slam dunk a little while ago. that's interesting, because what you're saying about conditions, and what we're saying about credit spreads tells you that if anything, they need to reel it in more. >> you may get a cult before that hike, too. >> right. >> interesting. well, i think at one point, earlier this year, there was a 7% chance of a hike at some point this year. i understand exactly what
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michael's saying, and quite frankly, if that were the case, you could say it's because inflation's out of the -- or because the economy is doing well enough where -- so, i mean, again, it's depending on how you look at it. listen, the last couple inflation numbers have been hot in a word, that ppi number was twice what the street was looking for. market cared for a day. doesn't seem to care. and you're seeing it in yields. ten-year yields -- down three basis points today? i mean, so, i think the bond market is looking just a little bit differently. >> this all makes sense, but say michael is right, 12 months is a long time for the market to still drift higher because of this notion that the economy is still good and corporations are still making money and consumers have the ability to spend. >> right, so, then you want to look for things that haven't benefited. one of them, i know we're going to talk about intel later, they just got $8.5 billion from the u.s. government for free and $11 billion of low cost loans to build out something that will be inflationary here in the u.s., if you think about the nature of reshoring and what that means for wages and the like here. so, again, there's lots of ways
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to probably benefit from this, you know, things are going crazy right now in the markets. a whole host of different risk assets are doing that, and there's plenty of stuff that haven't participated yet. one of the areas is the russell 2,000, which outperformed the man joy indices, too. it's well below the all-time highs made in 2021. you have to say to yourself, why is that not? i know what it's in there and some of the areas have underperformed, but that would be an area. >> why buy the russell -- i hear what you're saying, i totally agree with that. when you have gm moving 50%, when you have a whole bunch of industry companies, industrials make any high every day. all you need to know about the stock market's interpretation of the fed, from 2:00, 2:21, wherever the market really took the impact, you saw, first of all, gold rallied 120 bips to the end of the day. that tells you all you need to know about how aggressive, not, the fed is going to be. kre, up 3.8% from the fed announcement to the end of the close. kre. regional banks. it tells you what you want. bitcoin was up 4.8%.
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and then as you got into high multiple tech land, like draftkings, tells you a lot about consumer spending. up 4.5%, 5%. >> this is early cycle stuff, which makes sense. regional banks, industrials, small caps, the junkiest stuff rallying is because economic growth is strong and earnings growth is accelerating. >> we got an earnings alert on kb home. the home builder slightly higher after reporting a beat. the company's call kicking off at the top of the hour. diana olick has the call. >> revenues you 6%, net new orders up 55%. the ceo said fiscal 2024 is off to a strong start, noting q-1 results were either at or above guidance, and they did raise guidance slightly, as well. he added that market conditions have improved since the end of our 2023 fiscal year. this positive momentum in demand has continued in our 2024 second quarter to date. not surprising, given we've seen
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builder sentiment rise into positive territory this month and we saw february single family housing starts surge much higher than expected. kb's average selling price did drop to $480,100 from $494,500. the year before. the builders are offering incentives, especially buying down the mortgage rates, but kb's gross promitfit margin cam in. backlog dropped, likely due to the big rise in interest rates last fall. melissa? >> diana, thank you. and speaking of big moves, home builders, new highs in today's session. >> amazing, absolutely. again, if things are as good as it appears, i mean, these things are going to continue to sort of levitate. my one concern for home builders, it has not been justified, if the unemployment rate starts moving in a meaningful way, that's when you put the stop sign up for these. but we talked about this a couple weeks ago, the high end home builders, their prices are going higher, their average selling price. the mid to lower end, the prices
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are going lower. and it's the same thing we saw, we talked about this with some of the retailers. the same sort of barbell thing that we're seeing, the high end consumer on one side, in william sonoma, and the flip side with a dollar tree. >> can you imagine if rates go down? what's going to happen to home prices -- >> frenzy. >> absolutely. this is just typical behavior, when you are early and mid-cycle. the home builders do very, very well. regardless of rates. the small caps are the same sort of way, so, i mean, listen, this is all telling the same story. and by the way, it all feeds into inflation, as well. you know, the big expectation was that inflation was going to come down, because of rents coming down, well, if home prices go up, rents go up, as well. >> i think you're right, michael, or interesting, and i think at the table you have the most credence in bringing this stuff to the table, calling this early cycle is crazy to me. so, what happened to the end of the cycle? we never -- so, it's really extraordinary to think about, you know, essentially, the war economy we had with no war, and
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i realize covid was hardship, but we pumped up the economy, we pumped up the balance sheet, we pumped up a whole lot and we were already late cycle at that point and now we kind of missed the whole thing. >> remember, we were in an earnings recession in 2022 and small caps earnings just bottomed in q-4. a news alert on reddit's ipo pricing. leslie picker has the details. >> yeah, speaking with sources familiar with the matter, reddit has decided that ipo price for its debut, high end of the range here, $34 per share, same number of shares offered, about 22 million there. that implies an offering size of 748 million. 70% of that is going to be sold by the company. the rest is going to be sold by selling shareholders, largely employees and so forth. that implies a fully diluted valuation of about $6.4 billion, on a fully diluted basis. reddit pricing its ipo, high end
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of the range, $34 per share. that one set to debut tomorrow morning, melissa. >> all right, leslie, thank you. we'll have much more on reddit later this hour. coming up, more afterhours action in the chips space. micron reporting results. details next. and sticking with the semi space, intel landing billions from the chips october. how they're planning to use the money, and what the ceo had to say about the company's next steps. don't go anywhere. "fast money" will be right back. this is "fast money" with melissa lee. we right here on cnbc. green with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy. (♪♪) that's how you business differently. intuit quickbooks.
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major plays in a sports game. giving millions of fans, like my dad and me, new ways of catching up on their favorite sport. welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on micron. shares are popping after posting a beat on revenues and a surprise from fit for the quarter. kristina partsinevelos has all the details. >> a return to profitability after five quarters of losses. the results were higher than ever analyst estimate on wall street. they provided a much stronger than expected outlook inand the stock is climbing 14% right now. the ceo is on the call. he's attributing the improvement to improved conditions -- improved conditions to strong a.i. demand, healthier demand in most end markets, remember, that was an issue, cyclicality was a
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concern going into this print. but micron pointed to improvements across the board, from pcs to auto. the ceo also says a.i. memory, which is high bandwidth memory is already sold out for 2024 and mostly allocated for 2025, according to the ceo. they count nvidia as one of their customers. only took eight minutes for them to name drop nvidia. they warned of supply problems with dram. memory prices, though, are climbing so quickly that management now predicts positive cash flow in the second half of this year and record revenue for fiscal 2025. so, very bullish right now. melissa? >> kristina, thank you. seeing a lot of analysts bullish going into this record, saying the ceo has been so optimistic when talking about demand for the microchips. >> this is a company that had
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negative gross margins. >> when you talk about the demand, these are the things that are going to allow a.i. to operate on devices here and going to be sold out, but they're going to lower, like they said, supply, and that might be a manufacturing thing for some areas that have less demand. this is the story of micron, but i'll say another thing, if you look at the historical chart of this thing, we might have looked at it -- it just made a new all-time high. we spent a lot of time talking about dell, you know, who have gotten back to their bubble highs from 25 years ago, this thing just broke out in a meaningful way from a technical standpoint. when you get momentum going like this, you have a quarter like this where you expected a loss and go to a big profit, it's probably not a one quarter event. the white house awarding intel $8.5 billion in chips act grands, with the ability of another $11 billion on top of that. the large sum will go towards the company's efforts to increase u.s. semiconductor manufacturing. jon fortt spoke with the ceo.
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here's what he said about the company's new chip factories. >> they're some of the largest construction projects every done on earth, building the smallest things ever been built. these are truly marvels of manufacturing, r&d, research and technology, and every one of those a.i. chips, they need the stuff going into the future. so, i'd say this is part of our unique role that intel has for the industry today, and into the future. >> shares of intel having a rough year so far, a laggard in the semi space. could this grant be the catalyst that returns the company to maybe some of its former glory? they delayed one of these plants that's going to benefit from this grant in ohio. they delayed that one and cited a slowdown, because the government money was so slow in coming, but challenging market conditions, which, i don't know if they've gone away. >> and there's been some -- maybe slightly embarrassing, but whatever you want to call, you know, taiwan semi finishing a plant in japan faster than we're doing stuff here.
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intel, look, it's been a massive disappointment. it gets back to, where do you think, first of all from the stock's perspective, i think it's underowned. there's no question to me, for all the reasons we just talked about, but i look to the future, and i look at the dynamic, the cap x spend of the communications service providers, the hyper scalers. they are going to be double-different cap x growth for the next three, four, five years, and intel is going to grow into this. not cheap, certainly not cheap on valuation, but i think you can wade through here. every time they report, we've seen the cycle for the stock. it sells off 10%, 15%, creeps back up and takes out the highs. you trade it that way if you want. >> i wonder where the semiconductor cycle will be in '27 or '28 when the plants are finally operational, i ask reor theically. but you have to wonder, you know, how that's going to line up for them. >> i don't think they know the answer to that question, unfortunately. and i'll say this with respect to intel, i mean, they got lazy many, many years ago, just them
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an amd and they dominated the landscape. the only reason amd existed is so intel wouldn't be a monopoly, and quite frankly, the world passed them by very quickly. and you see it manifest itself every time they report. if you think the other high flyers are going to come down to earth and maybe there's a rotation, or you believe it's some sort of homeland security play we talked about before, which, today, $8.5 billion gives you credence that might be the case. >> there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. >> a paramount premium. the studio reportedly attracting a big bid to go private. what it means for the company and the streaming space now. plus, ipo in the know. reddit getting ready for itself first day of trading. what to know about pricing and how the stock could hold up in the public markets. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.
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welcome back. we have a market flash on apple. kate rooney has the details. kate? >> hi there, melissa. the department of justice reportedly plans to file an
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anti-trust case against apple as soon as thursday, this is according to bloomberg news. shares of apple are dipping on this news. a little bit of context here. the anti-trust enforcers have been probing the company since 2019, they allege apple has imposed software and hardware limitations on some of their products to impede rivals from effectively competing. again, this is from bloomberg news. reached out to apple on this, they are declining to comment, but this news is hitting shares after hours. mel? >> kate, thank you. down 1.3% right now. once upon a time, these headlines would not move the stock whatsoever, but here we are, doubt around the apple story, period. >> here we are. the stock is -- we thought it could trade down to the october low, 163, it got very close. it bounced to 179ish, so, maybe it's just a little -- people that took advantage of this move we've seen over the last couple weeks. maybe it's on the back of that. to your point, historically, it doesn't move the stock. given what we've seen with the name over the last couple of months, it does.
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>> is there something about this headline that is scarier than past headlines that we've seen about anti-trust efforts? >> these aren't the headlines for me with apple that scare me. they really are, you know, seems to be a word of the night, but the cyclicality of their business, where we are in terms of where i think, you know, that install base really is going to benefit from some of these changes in innovation and technology, but there's no question that europe is serious. and there's -- there are a lot-teeth on the anti-trust side. it's just to me not the reason to sell apple here. the reason to sell apple is the valuation at a time when i also just think you've seen a lot of rotation out of some of that megacap tech and i think some of that is apple. >> we talked about the rumors that maybe apple was talking to google or openai about what they might license for their gen-a.i. product, how they're going to integrate that into ios or their actual devices, that's going to get some regulatory, you know, scrutiny, so, like, you just put them all together, you say,
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these guys don't have the product they did ten years ago that are driving their ecosystem. and they are kind of left flat-footed. paramount shares surging after a report that private equity firm apollo has launched a bid for the company's film and tv studio business. that's a 50% premium to the market cap of all paramount global as of yesterday's close. this latest offer comes as the streaming player weighs a bid to emergency with skydance media. we were talking about whether or not it's worth it for this asset. >> it's fascinating, and of course, what's been going on here is, the redstone family have not really -- they've resisted. and the paramount studio clearly has appeal to players in the industry, strategic partners, netflix people circling around. there's been talks about merging with skydance. we had every rumblings around
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paramount for a couple months, a couple years, i think private equity is here, and is looking at the entire media space and they are looking at the assets here and they are doing sum of the parts. there's warner brothers out there, a lot of companies that are trading below their intrinsic value. it's certainly measured in different places, and in linear tv, we know the assets are declining in value, but at some point, i think there's still a lot of value there, so, the fact that this deal was so far above the market cap of the company yesterday, which was under $8 billion, is extraordinary, except for the fact that people have wanted these assets for a long time, it's just been about getting the control and the rest of the deal together. >> maybe there's too much -- >> liquidity out there, that's right. coming up, big plans forito burrito. why a move that should mean nothing for a stock is having such an impact. that's next. and what to know about reddit's ipo. rick heitzmann is here to lay out what he expects out of the
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social media's big debut and if this could spark an ipo resurgence. more on that when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. eare with unresolved symptoms? it may be time to see the bigger picture. heart failure and seemingly unrelated symptoms like carpal tunnel syndrome, shortness of breath, and irregular heartbeat could mean something more serious, called attr-cm a rare, underdiagnosed disease that worsens over time. sound like you? call your cardiologist and ask about attr-cm.
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here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. welcome back to "fast money." stocks hitting all-time highs after the fed reiterated guy dance for three rate cuts this year. the dow jumping 400 points. the s&p jumping a ing 50 point.
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chewy posting a surprise profit, but falling from its afterhours highs. and shares of chipotle getting a burrito bump, touching the $3,000 level at one point. the move after the company's board approved a 50 for 1 stock split. shareholders will vote on the split at the annual meeting on june 6th. we said many times on this show that when you split a stock, it doesn't really add any value. it doesn't, at all, in fact, but it makes it a candidate, potentially, to enter other indices. >> yeah, it could certainly, i mean, imagine what it might mean for the industrial average and what not, but -- as someone that's gotten the story wrong, and certainly from the investment side, i'm a consumer, i've talked about my frustrations there, but -- >> upper west side one lacking ingredients. >> happened again last week. having said that, this stock, in terms of the growth, and they've done everything right in terms of what's been going on in casual fast, not only in terms
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of their menu, their positioning, but what they've done on digital, what they've done on store openings, how they've done it efficiently. there's nothing you can say. they traded at a 5 0-plus multiple for a long time. >> stay with the burrito. >> what? >> stay with the burrito. >> oh. >> ride the horse. >> you like it. keep going? >> and i understand that whole, doesn't matter -- stay with it. >> all right. meantime, more on the reddit ipo, as we told you earlier. the stock pricing 34 bucks a share. the top end of the range. it starts trading tomorrow morning. rick heitzmann is known for early investments in companies including airbnb, pinterest, and draftkings. good to see you. you are not in this one -- >> not in this one. but it's great to be back and it's great that this seems to be opening the market, means that we're going to start talking about ipos again. >> you make the point, this is not a premium company. >> yes. >> this is really going to be a test? >> this is a real test. it will be a little bit of a litmus test for the ipo buyer
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sentiment, because it's not a premium company. it's at the end of the social cycle, it's not premium in terms of its rpu, it's still losing money. yet, there's tons of demand. >> so, rick, $800 million in revenue last year, 73 million daily active users. not a great company, i'm sure they're trying to get costs under control. there was an announcement that they did a deal with google, $60 million, to sell access to their api. that is about a.i. that's going to be that sort of story. companies like this losing money are going to have to tell a different narrative than they've been telling for the last 15 years or so. >> they tried to get leaner. they tried to get more profitable. they still can't get to that profitability goal. in addition to that, they did, as part of their road show, sprinkle some of that a.i. pixie dust saying we're an a.i.-adjacent company. licensing your data is 100% margin business. so, that falls to the bottom line. and they believe they'll be able to do this multiple times. and a lot of people with great
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stores of data are going to continue with this business model as these lms grow and access to data really matters. >> there's probably not a perfect comp in the publicly traded market world. however, what is this most close to in terms of what we trade? >> if you look at some of the research, it's pinterest. they saying, this is poor man's pinterest. it's a community around goods and services. i think pinterest has a lot higher intent, so, therefore the average revenue per user is much higher. and you have a lot of search type revenue. where as reddit is a lot of, you know, random ads that people are trying to have untargeted and they don't necessarily have the tooling to make those ads much better. >> how do you think this thing trades tomorrow, considering 8% of the shares are allocated to users with no lockup period? >> i think it still trades up. i think that there's going to be some effectively, you know, meme stock hoppers, if you think about people that are going to be that 8%, going to users,
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going to the marketing managers who are running reddit. they're going toe hold it. they're true believers. but i also think you're going to see a lot of people coming in. astera today trades up, much different story, but still, people are interested in new issues, and i think you're seeing the calendar start, to build for the second quarter. >> do you think we start seeing those pixie dust ipo companies, the a.i. companies rushing to market, or some of the glp -- i'm thinking about the pockets in the market that are in most demand right now. >> those are the two. you're seeing some companies that were good companies that were weighing access to market, especially on the consumer side. harrie harrys.com, stub hub. and then you'll see if some of the a.i.s get pushed out. but the companies that might trade at valuations that will be extreme premium would be the glp-1 adjacent companies or a.i., obviously. >> rick, great to see you, thank you. >> thank you. >> would you be a buyer of
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reddit? >> i'd be a buyer of pinterest. reddit, not necessarily. i understand what rick is saying in terms of that crowd. pun te pinterest traded down 10% and yet four analysts come up and raise their price targets, somewhere between $42 and $48. i think pinterest is the place you want to be. >> i think it's a fascinating time for the retail investor -- the ipo market, those are the public markets. the dynamic here is that i think the market is becoming a lot more sophisticated and deeper than the traditional market for ipos. coming up, a check on china tech. the kweb seeing strength today as a couple of names posted strong results. what is next for these stocks next? asmoy"s ckn o.ee's rea and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading.
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(man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. welcome back to "fast money." pinduoduo shares finishing well off their highs after they reported a huge revenue beat before the bell. the stock was up 16% before pairing those gains. they finished the day up 3% higher. the kweb following a similar path today. tencent and ali baba in the green. baidu in the red. a nice revival for chinese internet. >> it's actually been an interesting six to eight weeks. there's been a struggle. there's been a struggle to get through levels.
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we've had some nice runs. these have been trading stocks. the macro in china, i think, is -- it's easy to point out the negative. it's easy to point out the property issues. the underowned and the sentiment levels in this country for owning some of their mag seven is low, i've been -- look, i've been adding kweb to client accounts. as you're looking for places, for people in the next two to three years, i don't think there's any question you want to be in china. you talked about the b in blicep, i think they recognize, the whole spin-off thing was supposed to create value at ali baba, and it's been slowed down a bit. i think some of this is clumsy. i think china looks really interesting. and the global growth. >> all of these big chinese internet companies are returning capital to shareholders, for b baba, tencent. you like china.
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from a long time ago. >> we have, obviously, a little bit early to -- to the china trade, but yeah, we like china. listen, it's got all the things going for it. you have accelerating profit growth. pbocing liquidity into the system. it's priced at roughly eight times, so, when i look at china, i see a lot of similarities to the u.s. in '08 and '09, so, we like china here. coming up, budgeting for obesity. how weight loss drug coverage could put a strain on the federal budget, and the latest headlines from one firm's first weight loss conference. all that next. more "fast money" in two.
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than anyone else. get started for $49.99 a month plus ask how to get up to an $800 prepaid card. don't wait- call today. welcome back to "fast money." shares of novo nordisk taking a dip after a worth from the congressional budget office that suggested medicare coverage of blockbuster obesity drugs could put a strain on the federal budget. with the cost to cover them outweighing potential savings from a reduction in other health care expenses. bmo bringing together pharma companies, health care providers, and patients. joining us on set with the key takeaways, evan, welcome to the show. >> glad to be here. >> is the enthusiasm still as robust as it has been? >> the energy in the room was incredible today. it was jam-packed. people were really excited to be here. the cbo news did not dampen the
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mood. a lot of questions, a lot of conversations, and i think we're really working to figure out how to get patients access to these drugs. that's the key question. >> where do you stand on lilly and novo in terms of how they're valued right now and how you're thinking about that total addressable market that they may be addressing? i mean, once upon a time, it was, you know, how many people are, you know, struggling with obesity times by how much the drug costs, which is not the case when you consider insurance and access questions. >> there's so many questions here. i looked at a note from mid-2022, my peak sales are $14 billion. clearly a lot higher now, we're at $150 billion for the entire class. i cover lilly, so, i think that shares still have room to run. a lot of enthusiasm around the weight loss space. and i think there's still momentum. don't cover novo, but clearly, the other key competitor, and we think that both can coexist for awhile. >> so, we have dropped us into the broader ecosystem, some of the medical device players.
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there's a lot of different ways to attack this, and at different times in this trade, we've seen the market overreact, and i won't ask you to comment on hershey and coca-cola, but i guess i'm trying to really put some -- there are companies out there that are still beaten up by the headlines. should they be and pick which ones you think. >> well, i think there's a few things. like the sleep abpnea companies we're going to get data from lilly's trial soon. clearly obesity is a component of sleep apnea, that was said at the summit today, but i don't know if that tanks the sleep apnea market here. you know, other things like glucose monitoring, that all still exists. people are going to be really interested in their health and really interested in monitoring their statistics, so, there may be a shift, but it's not going to be that seismic. >> we know lily, novo, what other companies in your universe should we be focused on? >> structured therapeutics.
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solves a lot of potential the access issues. it's a lot ease year to manufacture. can get a pill to a lot more folks. i'm also -- don't cover them, but look at alt-immune, viking. we weren't just talking about the weight loss, but the muscle loss component, which is huge. that is really critical, because i think that's going to be the next part of the equation that we need to figure out. >> and the big ones are addressing that in terms of other combinations, the next generation of glp-1 which also fights that. when will we see that? >> it's still early, because lilly did an acquisition to try to address this, novo did an acquisition recently. even companies like regeneron, we think they have assets in development to deal with the muscle loss component of glp-1s, and i think that's what's super interesting. >> talk to us about the broader ecosystem, the names we don't have the opportunity to cover. we've see ro.co, some of the
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ones that are distributing and describing. what are some things in the private markets -- >> at this event, we had a few -- a company called intelihealth. what they're trying to do is democratize access to care. you can't get an appointment. it's a year-long waiting list. they're coming up with an online platform to get patients to clinicians quicker so that they can get access to that care, and it's not just getting a glp-1. it's counseling on how to exercise, it's working through the side effect profile of these drugs, because when you first start them, it's kind of nasty for some patients. so i'm really interested in that digital health component. >> some of the smaller names you mentioned are interesting, but what they lack is the capital. >> yeah. >> to bring it to arket. and so, are there any smaller ones that are working now that have the capital or do you see all of them as potential targets? >> i think, listen, small cap
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biotech, they're usually targets. structure today, the ceo, we're looking at partnerships now. they recognize that to get an oral small molecule targeting glp-1 to the masses, it's going to take some heavy lifting and some capital. >> all right. evan, thank you for coming in. >> thank you so much for having me. >> sharp-dressed man, too. >> thank you. >> next to mike. >> thank you, mel. >> stop it. >> appreciate that. >> another vote of confidence. all right, up next, final trades. at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.
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report-setting day across the board with the dow, the nasdaq, and the s&p 500 setting new all-time highs after the fed
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chair held steady to three rate cuts this year. as the markets were hoping. look at micron shares, after reporting results, it is still higher. it's up 15% right now. so, big pop on that one. we'll watch the impact on the semiconductor index tomorrow. final trade. tim? >> great having michael. guy just said he thought the knicks could be in the championship. >> i did see that. >> delta airlines. i like it. >> michael? >> you want to own stocks, you're seeing that in the small cap sectors. >> and thank you for being here on the show, michael. dan? >> yeah, so, the airlines breaking out, as tim just mentioned. boeing can rally on the news today. maybe southwest airlines could fill in a bit of that gap from last week. >> hmm. >> hmm. >> i did say that about the knicks. and just this inside baseball, because we have a few seconds -- >> yeah. >> michael and tim were ecstatic that the mets won a spring training game. which tells you -- >> what did you say to them?
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>> embarrassing. >> ecstatic that diaz came in and closed the door. >> pieces. it's all -- >> embarrassing. >> you have a final trade? >>ing a nikko eagle mines. >> that's the a in clams? >> you have toch the your clam. >> oh. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull ver the summer. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, welcome to wesco's addition of mad money. people make friends, i'm just trying to make a little money. my name is not just entertainment, i'm here to tweet -- teach. we don't care about rate cuts. we care that the feds are no

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