>> jason >> ostco eps growth was up 19% in the last quarter it's been a little volatile. i like this one. >> target. i think they have $10 a share of earnings power >> good stuff. i'll see you on "closing bell. "the exchange" begins now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much. welcome to "the exchange." here's what's ahead on the show today. we're in a bet fueled buyback driven market says one of our guests he sees scary corrections along the way. he's here to make that case. japan's stock market hitting record highs we look at where the biggest opportunities are, as we continue our trip around the world this week. this stock down 30% from its may high the company with maximum stress, which is why one of our guests

likes it here. he'll be here why is now the time to buy back the ticker. but we begin with a look at how markets are trading this lunchtime. as you can see, up about 0.2% on each of the major averages that means we're on pace for the first positive day in three for the s&p 500. the nasdaq is set for its sixth positive day in seven, on track for a record close in and around that level 16,428.2 is the level we're looking at so as you can see, we're just a little shy at the moment, need another ten basis points for a gain the s&p 500 up about 10% this year, and those gains may be set to continue. our next guest says we're in a debt-driven buyback market, contributing to some scary corrections. joining me is brian reynolds

understand chief market strategist at reynolds strategy. and also, bob pusani is here, as well, to talk us through the key talking points of this story and the buyback picture. bob, break it down for us. >> wilford, good to see you. corporate america is flush with cash, and buying back that near record amount of stock this year after a record 2022 when $950 billion in stock was bought back 2023 was a mild disappointment due to lack of earnings growth but 2024 is looking like a new record companies announced $187 billion in buybacks in february alone, second only to the record of $225 billion announced in february of 2022 now, a good chunk of the buybacks seem to be driven by record profits in big tech that makes a lot of sense. corporate america has shown a preference for buybacks over dividends, and capital expenditures the main reason seems to be buybacks can boost share prices

because they reduce shares outstanding, and in theory, they improve earnings per chair they're also more flexible than dividends. a buyback can be discontinued much easier than cutting a dividend but it depends on cash flow. as long as that is strong rngs you have buybacks. >> bob, stick around for this discussion brian, great to see you. in the headline, we're seeing debt-fueled buybacks that's a good thing. surely buybacks are a good thing, when stocks are cheaper, and when it's being funded outside excess earnings and revenue and not through debt talk us through why debt-dualed buybacks is a good thing >> general, the credit market is on fire. companies have been able to borrow record amounts of debt, and most of that is going into buybacks, including the cash flow the companies are krdrivin.

the credit markets are on fire in the long run, that's good for stock prices in the short term, it's gotten overdone and i think we're due for a pullback s >> so interesting that you say that i can see why it's good no the short term if it's funded by debt in the long-term, surely there's going to be a come upancn. >> there always is each time that was from a higher low. so over time, stock prices go up because of the buybacks. but in the short term, buybacks land stock prices. last year, stocks went down because buybacks petered out, because the government was borrowing too much money, people felt, from august to october but in october i pointed out on the show that the government was done borrowing money they hit their targets, and they sent the buybacks into overdrive. so we have had a move since last october through now from one

standard deviation below the standard stock prices to bone standard deviation above so when you get that type of a move, that's going to buyback slowdowns temporarily, as corporations husband their cash. they think we've done enough to boost stock prices and they don't do the stop buybacks again until stock prices have gone down about 10% >> brian is not saying this ex-e exp explicitly, but buybacks are not the only drivers for the market. what is your take on it? how important are buybacks for the market and sentiment and do you agree with brian's take we might be upstretched on the short term >> yes here's the problem i have. it's one thing to argue when you are buying back stock with cheap debt, like it was a couple of years ago, but that's not so

cheap any more companies are going to be a little more buying back debt when the cost of borrowing is a lot higher so that's one natural break that i see out there. other than that, it's interesting to watch the competition. i've been doing this 25 years between buybacks, dividends and capital expenditures there was a time when dividends were more popular and corporate america pulled back because they liked the flexibility of buybacks it is an interesting way to return cash to shareholders, providing you can reduce the share count. there are some situation where is they don't do that. some companies are doing divid dividends. meta just announced a dividend so there is competition. the key story is what does corporate america do with the access cash flow joe biden wants them to spend more on hiring people, but that's a function of the economy. so i don't have a problem with corporate buybacks, but i have a problem doing it when they use debt to do that, and the cost of

the debt is higher >> stay there, if you will i want to give into this in more detail we have a news alert first of all to bring you on apple. we'll discuss the consequences of this newsletter steve has for us >> so apple's annual developer's conference will take place on june 10th at the company's headquarters out there in cupertino, california. this is the annual developers conference where they do new updates through all the software for the various devices, iphone, apple tv and so forth. this is when we're expecting apple to make its artificial intelligence announcement. after the last earnings report a couple of months ago, the ceo of apple teased that there's going to be what he called breaking new ground in artificial intelligence for apple, and the huge question for investors, where apple fits into this ai revolution we're talking about they don't have the same clear narrative that maybe an nvidia or microsoft does, so what kind

of features that would incorporate and so forth we learned last week that apple is a bit in talks with many potential partners for its ai products, including google, and china's bydo for its artificial intelligence product, as well. so huge stakes for apple for this ai, and that's what we expect on june 12th. >> let's go back to the panel. brian, let's talk on apple this is a great example. it's off highs but not by much clearly it's done incredibly well on various multiples. should they not prioritize dividends over buybacks at these levels >> well, i think in general, stocks are overdone relative to debt levels. so i agree with bob. it doesn't make sense for companies to buy back their stocks at these levels,

especially for a company like apple. apple has bought back their stock and seen investors redirect it to other names one other factor here that plays into bob's argument, that's ipos, initial public offerings when stocks are down, they're not in the ipos. when they go up, companies want to sell stock. we had a very successful ipo of reddit last week, which will encourage more companies to bring stock to market. so they will be doing issuance, which in the short term, this will be negative for stocks. we'll go from a backbook overheated environment over the last six months to fewer in the next four or five months that will probably make a correction and when values get better, the buybacks will kick back up. >> bob, final word to you. >> again, i agree with the point being made you want to buy back stock generally when the price of your stock is perceived to be cheap opposed to future earnings potential. how is the market valuing?

apple has had a pullback recently so there may be some arguing that now would be a good time to buy analpple with a 10% buyback. people like the dividends because it's real cash, and it's not something that is sort of intangible it's a big debate, we should have this problem. right now, corporate america is flush with cash, and that's what the good news is that's why the stock market is holding up so well >> gentlemen, great discussion thanks for that. let's go around the world, as we will continue to do this week japan's stock market hitting record highs for the first time in over three decades. that's paid off for berkshire hathaway

berkshire upped their investment by 3.5% with warren if you have et saying he could be open to increases beyond that down the line while buffet was early on japan, our next guest sees unhappened opportunity from here. it japan fund is up 16% this year joining us more is shintar give us a snapshot what the valuation multiple is on the nikkei at the moment >> sure, thanks, wilford so right now, nikkei index, which consists from mega caps and large caps of japanese companies is trading at 22 times forward earnings, which is at a ten-year high. however, if you look at the broader index like the topic inde index, it's trading at 16 times earnings, which is a median of the previous ten years

japan is one of the very few markets which has a positive earnings momentum, and also a positive revision that is still trading within the ten-year rake other markets such as india and u.s. are trading at ten-year highs. >> those multiples are steeper than i thought you would say so talk us through the attraction of buying stocks at that price, is japan about to grow at 6% gdp per year? >> no. i think there is a -- there's still a big perception gap amongst global investors when we talk about investing in asml for example, do we worry about dutch domestic economy when global investors think about japan and techic tokyo el, they worry about that. so we invest in japan corporate

profit growth, which has been robust over the past decade. going forward, it has been and will benefit from global manufacturing cycles, and on top of that, there's apple upside with regards to increased share of buybacks and dividends. >> talk me through that, the sort of sense of shareholder returns and the priority that management gives to shareholders, is there a lot of dividend payouts at the moment what are the yields on the key names you own? >> so currently, the japan market on average is -- the dividend yield is about 2% buyback last year was record high at $65 billion, which buyback yield is about -- 1% to 1.5% the important thing is corporate japan is sitting on $1 trillion of cash on balance sheet more than 40% of the japan listing companies are net cash so unlike the u.s. companies,

which is borrowing money and buying back shares, increasing buybacks in dividends for japanese companies is not to decline the roe, because the cash flow accumulation has been much faster than the deployment itself >> talk to me about your assessment of what the bang of japan has been doing over six months have they come out of the zero rate policy a bit slower or are you contemptnt with their actio? >> i think the boj actions basically raising rates, moving out of the negative interest rate policy is an important milestone to actually see real wage growth in japan happen, which is critical for domestic consumption. at the same time, the governor oueda has stated that the boj will continue to be

accommodative in its stance on a relative basis compared to other central banks. that's what we need to see for the japanese equity market >> thank you for joining us. great conversation >> thank you ceo larry fink says japanese equities have more upside as well we'll hear more of that on "mad money" with jim cramer tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern big, big interview that jim is doing. meantime, search and rescue efforts continue for survivors after a container ship struck a major bridge in baltimore this morning. all ves sel traffic in and out o baltimore has been suspended this shows the moment a 948 foot vessel crashed into the pillar supporting the bridge before tumbling into the river. dramatic images showing the scale of the collapse that we

have been looking at all day aemon has the latest and what joe biden has been saying in the last couple of hours >> reporter: well, to give you a sense of the scene, we just saw a few moments ago a giant flat bed truck full of flood lights pulling in clearly they are setting up for some nighttime work here overnight. we're still many hours from darkness here, but plans moving ahead for that as you can see right behind me, they're just pulling up a couple of flat bed trucks with giant mobile offices on them you can see that in your picture, those just arrived. so clearly, officials here settling in for the long haul in terms of the recovery effort and the reconstruction effort that is to come you see behind me, that is the vessel that struck the ship. you can see it's still packed high with those containers on the deck of the ship the ship itself is wedged under the wreckage of the bridge right where the bridge collapsed

and that one piece of bridge wreckage still propped up on the bow of the vessel itself that ship has not moved since about 1:30 this morning when it impacted the bridge. as of now, this is still a search and recovery effort they say there are divers in the water. we have seen coast guard helicopters circling overhead, and there's questions about the remaining six individuals still unaccounted for at this point. we know that two were, in fact, rescued. but it has been a long time since somebody was rescued here at the scene, wilford. the president speaking a short time ago, talking about that recovery and his plans are for the future take a listen. >> i told them, we're going to spend all the federal resources they need as we respond to this emergency. i mean, all the federal resources. we're going to rebuild that port together everything so far indicates that this was a total accident.

at this time, we have no other indication, no other reason to believe there's any intentional act here >> reporter: so the president also saying there that the federal government will pick up the tab, whatever it might be, for reconstruct sion of this bridge, which is a vital artery for traffic and commerce and leisure travel here on the eastern seaboard of the united states he was also asked if the federal government is picking up the tab here, what about the shipping company that was a private company that was apparently responsible for this accident? the president said we're simply not going to wait to adjudicate all of the liability here. we're going to get moving on a rebuild. the federal government will pick up the tab, and if there is any liability, that will come on the back end it will be the taxpayers first paying for this before any resolution of the liability issues those will be presumably epic. back to you. >> thanks so much for that

we want to draw your attention to chairs of international paper, moving lower as the company puts in a bid for london based rival ds smith, according to colleagues at sky news. the bid could throw a blwrench with ds smith's potential merger coming up, ups holding its investor day today with the stock coming off a second straight year of losses. the ceo will tell us what it takes to turn it around. here's a look at today's mystery chart, one of the worst consumer staples over the past year but our guest says now is the time to buy. "the exchange" is back after this short break

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carol tome morgan, over to you. >> carol, thank you so much for joining me on the heels of investor day in louisville, kentucky, which processes 400,000 packages per hour. when we talk about this 2026 forecast, revenue of $108 to $114 billion, up from $91 billion last year, adjusted operating margin above 13% for 2026, as well. these are well above street expectations what gives you the confidence to put this forecast out, especially as we have had a channeled market for freight and small package? >> well, morgan, i'm delighted to join you today. thank you for your questions we're excited about the future, and let me make it real for you. in our growth forecast, we're leaning into health care logistics in a meaningful way. we declared today that we want to be the number one complex health care logistics provider in the world last year, the health care

revenues reached $10 billion we plan to double that by 2026 so that's $10 billion of growth over the next three years. and the wonderful thing about health care is, you find it in all three segments, the domestic segment, international segment, and in our supply chain segment. but it doesn't stop there. we see opportunities for growth outside of the united states, the premium market is $50 billion. we've got lots of room to grow in that area and coming back to the u.s., the good news about the u.s., after the small package market shrinking in 2023, it's posed to return to growth in each of the next three years so when we add it all up, we're confident of the numbers that we shared >> okay. i do want to dig into some of those areas of growth a little bit more but first, this one plus two plan, to grow volume by dollar, then to grow volume with a focus on margins, this seems to be, at least according to the analysts

we have put into, what is putting shares of ups under pressure today walk me through the strategy and what investors might be missing here >> one plus two is simply based on the cost nature of our new teamster contract. we negotiated the largest teamster contract in the united states last year we're verypleased with that contract the annual wage increase is 3.3% over a five-year period. but it is front end loaded so one plus two is simply this in year one, we want to grow our volume and our revenue and operating profit dollars, and then in years two and three, we want to grow volume revenue and operating profit margin. why will margin expand past year one? because we are going to anniversary the first year of the teamster contract in august, and the cost growth rate drops dramatically after that.

so we plan to exit the u.s. with an operating margin of 10% this year, which gives us a jump to reach 12% by the end of 2026 >> so what does that enable in terms of future cost cuts and just as importantly, future investments in the network when you realized almost half the cost associated with this five-year contract in year one, how much more flexibility does that give you in terms of how you want to drive the changes within the network >> yeah, this is one of the most exciting initiatives we have facing ups over the next self-years this is our 117th year in business this is integrating, so we have the highest margins in the industry because of the integrated nature of our network, but it's old. so with network of the future, we are reimagining our network we're leaning in automation into ways we never have before.

and imagine, we're talking about automating every aspect inside of the buildings we're also going to collapse some buildings that we don't need any longer into larger, more automated buildings we will invest to make this happen we'll invest about $9 billion over five years, but in that five-year time frame, we will enjoy $3 billion of savings, of which 50% will be recognized in the first three years. >> the market share that you lost going into those contract negotiations last year, have you been able to regain that i ask knowing that fedex, your chief rival last week in earnings, mentioned they've been able to hang onto some of the business they were able to catch last summer. >> so, morgan, we did see volume leave us during the contract negotiation, and more than we expected candidly. but i'm happy to report that we have brought 60% of that volume that diverted back into our network. it's not just about winning

back, it's also about winning new. we do believe that volume will be down in the first half of this year, but we expect it to return to growth in the back half of the year >> great carol tome, ceo of ups, thank you so much for joining me on the heels of investor day. wilford, i'll send it back to you. i will note we'll have more on health care, more on international, more on the macro outlook with ms. tome coming up on "closing bell" at 4:00 p.m. eastern. >> i will be keeping your seat warm in your absence, which i look forward to immensely. carol, morgan, thank you so much turning to another part of the market, trump media and technology group is soring in its debut. we should note truth is the most shorted stock in the country, according to data from s-3 partners, leading the journal to label it a mean stock. we're getting new data points on

how former president trump is doing in the polls, and steve liesman has the results from the latest economic survey, with some of these readings about how this election is going to break down on the topic of the economy. >> i think we have identified the economic issues. the two nominees are deadlocked. joe biden's numbers have improved a bit, but former president trump has a commanding lead when voters are asked who is better on several key issues. let's do the horse race first. in the head-to-head contest, 45% pick biden, that's up from 42% in the prior poll. and 48% for trump. it's a 3.1% averagen of error, all this falls in the margin of error. it is a horse race if you look at the margin of 46-45 okay here are the top one or two issues judged by our 1,000 respondents. inflation, 81% pick it health care, middle class, overall economy, and crime

these are the top issues now, let's look at who voters think are -- have the best policies on these issues overall economy, the fourth most important issue, donald trump has a 30-point lead on that. crime, tied for fourth 28-point lead for trump. inflation, the most important issue, 27 point for donald trump. health care, biden has a 19-point advantage on that and the middle class, that's a place where there is some battle right there, who has the best policies for the middle class. let's go to the second tier, they're not in the top five. immigration, 48-point lead for donald trump taxes, 32 for trump. china, 28 for trump. come to abortion, 25-point lead for joe biden. social security, another potential battleground area. you could argue it's remarkable that biden is competitive with trump as he is, given some of

these trump margins on the economic issues. perhaps it's the boost we have seen in some of the economic gains that keep biden in the race, where it could be that voters have other issues with trump other than just his policies >> i'm sure. it is amazing to look at this debate on the economy and see biden not doing well, where trump coming from a european perspective, where the american economy has been the envy of the developed world. maybe there's someproblems to come down with the amount of debt to be repaid. but it is remarkable that biden doesn't score well >> we are just seeing some of those better numbers show up in our polling data bidesen's numbers have been special on the economy his approval on the economy is up a little bit from 32 to 37% overall approval is up to 39%. not good numbers, but a little bit better we have seen better numbers on housing and better views on the economy. still, when we asked people who will you be better off

financially? a plur dality say under trump is 39%, driven by the order of republicans who are very, very sure they will be better under trump. democrats and independents don't think it matters much. >> where i'm interested in your take on this is clearly the biden economy and whether you think it's been strong or not, it hasn't been weak, in part because of massive fiscal spending but at the same time, it's not like the trump presidency was one of fiscal restraint. maybe spending wasn't as aggressive, but taxes were cut without necessarily an associate cut in spending. i just wonder whether trump is getting benefitted with conservatives as if it's going to be a very fiscal president, but he wasn't. >> he was a populist president and not all that fiscally restrained he was more fiscally constrained than biden in answer to your question, is on that graphic we showed, what is the most important issue, that's inflation

biden gets tagged with the blame for inflation, rightly or wrongly. inflation happened under biden he gets tagged with the blame. and trump, by the way, is seen as better, even though he hasn't announced any policies, to combat inflation and i think the reason there is, why is trump better? because he's not biden >> interesting steve, great stuff steve liesman with the latest results. still ahead on "the exchange," we were back in the spotlight after adam newman made a bid to buy the company out of bank ruptry. we'll discuss.

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good afternoon, everyone welcome back to "the exchange. tyler mathisen here with your cnbc news update the supreme court today appeared likely to preserve access to the medication used in nearly 2/3 of abortions last year. during oral arguments this morning, court watchers say a consensus seemed to develop among the justices that the abortion opponents who filed suit lacked the standing to sue. now, if it stands, it would allow patients to receive the drug by mail order without a

doctor's visit a judge temporarily blocked texas attorney general's ken paxton from investigating a nonprofit supporting transgender minors, which will allow the nonprofit to keep its information private. the attorney general's office demanded the information last month in its investigation into medical providers offering gender affirming care, despite a state ban. visa and mastercard reached a $30 billion settlement to limit credit and debit card fees for merchants. that could help consumers save money through lower prices this settlement still needs court approval wolf, back to you. >> tyler, thanks so much markets just up slightly, the nasdaq is a point or two away from a record closing high in fact, where it stands right now, it is there we'll see if it holds.

still cto come on "the exchange," your last chance to guess the mystery chart. we have the name and the case to buy the dip coming up. the clue, it's sort of related to what you might be buying ahead of this weekend, given that it's easter we'll leave it there you need partners. mining partners. technology partners. education. supply chain. energy. what if one partner could do it all? that partner is ontario, canada. with all the critical minerals to make electric vehicle batteries. 65,000 stem graduates per year. one of north america's largest i.t. clusters. a fully integrated supply chain. all powered by one of the cleanest grids in north america. ontario. your innovation partner. ( ♪♪ )

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welcome back to "the exchange." chairman james gorman weighing

in on the fed's expected cuttin timeline earlier today >> i would be surprised if they move in the first half of this year i would not be shocked if they don't do anything for the rest of the year. >> my next guest says not cutting because the economy is doing well is, in fact, the best negative problem to have let's bring in our chief equities strategist. very good to see you, chris. so markets expecting three or so cuts this calendar year off the back of the fed meeting last week do you think if what james gorman said was correct that we get zero rate cuts that's good for equity markets >> yeah, i kind of do. it's good to be with you again i think that the important thing here is the economy is not just avoiding recession, it's actually getting stronger. i think that's what james gorman was getting at that's a big deal. so even -- and we're getting more and more pieces of data so for example, last week,

leading economic indicators were positive for the first time in two years. and bears on the economy have been using leading economic indicators for months, almost two years now, as the piece of evidence that we're going to go into a recession now that's turned around so i think the problem here, and it's a good problem to have, is that the economy is actually moving stronger. so if you're going to pick a problem, inflation is a little higher than you think. so the fed is not going to lower, they'll probably keep the same, and we'll have some fits and starts, but on the other side, if you have an economy running a little hotter, you have earnings doing well, inflation is a little hotter, earnings are reported in nominal, not real dollars, so inflation helps a little there, so i think it's smooth sailing with fits and starts, and it's about the best negative problem you can have that the economy is

growing and inflation will be a little higher than we suspect. >> talk to me how that might influence your portfolio's strategy, your sector selection, if sure, maybe it's not going to derail the overall deadline levels, but would it alter your sector selection if we're not going to get rate cuts >> great question. so the tough part isn't that you're scared of a recession, the tough part is boy, the market has done awfully well, so where do you go here what i think is important, there's a giant sucking of capital towards the mag seven, and they're terrific companies but you can make an argument that they're getting fully valued and in some cases a little bubblish. so what i would like to do is turn away from those, and where is that capital coming from, and look at investment grade companies that are facing stresses, for some reason or another. what i would like to do is find those companies that at a point of maximum stress.

typically they're not in technology, because there's no stresses there but there are some other parts of the economy, which are facing what i think are short-term stresses, but that offer terrific long-term opportunities. >> so we're going to get to one of those right now it's our stock chart of the day. we were teasing it, it was covered. reveal to our audience what it is and why you're a buyer of this stock >> so i'm here to talk about hershey's. hershey's has a tremendous headwind right now this is the stress that i was talking about. cocoa prices have -- take a step back if you want an investment this year that's done better than nvidia it's cocoa cocoa is up more than 100% since january, causing all sorts of havoc with chocolate makers. hershey's, which gets almost three quarters of its profits from its u.s. chocolate candy business, is obviously in the

center of the eye of that storm. so what's going on their earnings have been flat in the face of those huge rises of the raw ingredient it's because they're executing real well, but therising cocoa price is obscuring that execution. so we're going there the stock is down more than 30% since last june. and we think this is a place where investors will return to you'll get a double benefit of higher profits when cocoa prices return to normal, and you'll also get an expanded multiple as folks love the fact that hershey's will now be growing instead of just stagnant so we're excited about that. and it's off on its own eddy, own cul-de-sac where folks are looking at technology and not at consumer staples >> chris, thank you for joining us much appreciate it still to come on "the exchange," adam newman is bidding to buy back wework for

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the saga of wework continues the former ceo adam newman putting in a bid to now buy the now bankrupt foirirm for $500 million. deidre bosa has more on that great to see you >> does it feel like you never left we're still talking -- >> major deja vu >> exactly you know what? there's still a lot that is unclear. so a spokesperson says that two weeks ago a coalition of half a dozen financing partners submitted a potential bid, but at this point, a source says that wework has not opened up their books to neumann, so a deal cannot go forward until they do so and any investor will need to see that due diligence for a final decision, as well. the key question, as this continues, what do wework's creditors want member, the company is in bankruptcy there's the current manager led

by david tolly, and then there's adam neumann, wework's founder, who managed to revolutionize the second largest asset class in the world, commercial real estate, regardless of all of those faults so one activist battle, wiffle, behind the scenes operator versus founder. and according to wework's bankruptcy filing last november the largest unsecured claims come from the banks in the form of debt and real estate companies in the form of unpaid rent there is of course a softbank in all of this, wiffle, which still has wework on its books. and that is a very interesting question who would masa-san want running this company would it be adam neumann who he's already given a ton of money to and lost a ton of money or an operator who i don't know, won't have as good of a chance to bring this anywhere close to its glory even before the

billions of dollars of investment from softbank >> it probably comes down to whether neumann can still spin a story like he used to and masa-san if he's learned from his mistake or not where would this funding for neumann potentially come from? i assume not a check from masa-san >> highly unlikely >> didn't he make at least a billion himself? he's not funding this himself. >> yeah, it's unlikely that he would fund it himself because you would think -- he has another company called flow which is a real estate company where he's trying to create co-living spaces and i like the fact, wilf, that you said he's unable to spin a story. possibly to wall street, to softbank but you know where he can still spin a very compelling story, is right here in silicon valley the cult of the founder still alive and well we talk about who provides money. look at that company, flow andreessen horowitz wrote its biggest check ever, $350 million. so there are those out there, particularly in tech and vc,

that might sign on for a ride again. >> gosh. there we go. i'll take another two-year break, i'll come back and let's see where the story is then. dee, great stuff thank you. still to come, carnival cruises and gamestop getting ready to report we've got the action inhestory and the trade into t prt. earnings exchange is next. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's age renew formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond.

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welcome back we're going to the bahamas and to the moon in today's earnings exchange we're looking at carnival cruises and gamestop and here with us to trade these names jeff gillberg, kkm financial founder and ceo. also a cnbc contributor. great to see you, jeff talk me through the first one. carnival reporting tomorrow morning. >> yes, wilf it's great to see you back driving the cnbc boat. but carnival tomorrow morning is really interesting because of the fact that they've trailed royal caribbean. despite the fact they had a record 2023, 21 billion revenue and they have expectations for a great 2024, you have to realize this stock is still 75% off its high but i want to be a buyer here, wilf there's technical support on the 200-day moving average and i think carnival floats on >> very nice indeed. next one gamestop is down 10% so far this year. wedbush warning about softer hardware demand, especially for the nintendo switch and weaker

game sales as downloads continue to gain market share well off its meme stock highs of course. but retail trader still a bit of focus in this game what's your take on this one >> i have to stay away from it or sell it if you own it i certainly don't want to short it but if you look at gamestop, it's 80% off its all-time high, up 120 right now back in december of 2023 they gave the ceo, ryan cohen, cart blanche to use the billion dollars in cash for whatever he thinks to buy equity so is it a hedge fund or is it actually gamestop? there's a lot of uncertainty there. i want to stay away from it. but from a trade perspective you can make money being long or short. however, the earnings probably most likely disappoint because the euphoria, all that gamestonk we saw a couple years ago seems to have faded. >> during closing bell overtime we'll have that for you in a couple of hours. just under a minute or so left overall markets, are they a bit overstretched at the moment? >> it seems like nvidia's fever will not break as of yet as it

chases 950 here. maybe $12,000 it needs to print. but with the vix at 13 certainly, wilf, it feels like there's a bit of complacency in the market and we're also seeing the ten-year note at 4.25. i do get a little concerned as the quarter's wrapping up here we're not going to see 10% a quarter. that would be 40% year to date i think it makes sense for a pause. look at 4950 on the s&p 500, wilf that looks like a really appropriate place for this market to back end fill, consolidate and put in some volume so we can move higher later in the year. >> jeff kylburg, thank you for joining us up across all major averages .2% for the dow and the s&p a little more than that. a quarter of a percent only for the nasdaq np 16424 is where it stands four more points, 16428 is the record close 'lsee if it gets there that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" up next.

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good afternoon welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. alongside julia boorstin i'm tyler mathisen glad you could join us and this is the big story everyone is talking about today. a ship crashing into the francis scott key bridge in baltimore on the baltimore beltway, destroying it literally in seconds. we will get a live report from the scene and look into the economic disruption as well. >> but first let's check the markets. stocks slightly higher, shares of tesla are higher despite noted tesla bear tony sag nacki saying the stock is still overvalued