16 dickel 435. >> we will see you here when we reconvene tomorrow. same time, same place. >> thank you for watching power lunch. closing bell starts right now. . welcome the closing bell. we are at the new york stock exchange. the make or break out starts with the rally's momentum. whether or not it is fading or resting and recharging. we will ask the experts. and your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. mostly positive across the board and modestly so as the quarter will wind down. the p check to be cap report friday large even with markets closed that day. interest rates are mostly lower ahead of that. we will be keeping an eye on that two-year is a little higher. discretionary comp services, the bank leading the way the session. tesla up nicely as well even though it remains one of the s&p's worst performers this year and ups having a day, were

stay since january as the company reveals its new financial targets. all of it takes us to the talk of the tape. how much steam is left in this record-setting rally? let's ask liz young, head of investment strategy. good to see you. >> do you think momentum is fading? >> i do think it is fading. >> you can look at it in a numerical since. if you look at factor returns on what has happened and break this rally up into pieces. the first piece of it being october to december. momentum lead. high beta lead and then you get into 2024 and momentum was still leading but slowing down and use a low volatility come down and quality come in as a leader. in march in particular, you have low quality value, dividends as the factors leading. the one consistent factor that had been leading the entire time and continues to is large cap versus small gap. >> let's distinguish. we could take this one of two

ways. when he talked about momentum, we were talking about the momentum trade. momentum stocks like tech and otherwise. i'm more talking about momentum of the rally itself. do you think we are still cooler are we fading in that regard? the momentum behind the rally. >> i think the velocity of it is fading. the speed of it and the fervor of it. i don't think that the rally is ready to conk out. i think there is room for stocks to continue this rotation trade. the risk presented in the near term is the rebalance i could have been at the end of the 1st quarter. you have the s&p up almost 10% year-to-date and aggregate bonds down 1%. that is a really big spread relatively speaking. you might see some of that narrow as the quarter ends. i think there is more room for a rally to continue but is not at the same speed. >> the dreaded april 15th looming too, tax day. >> i have heard terrible things. >> i have heard people talk about that it could be an

impetus that you see selling in the market. have to pay the tax bill. >> i think that happens every year. i don't think that is something that will push us one direction. >> but after a big rally though. >> after a big rally. if people took their gains last year. i don't know that there were a ton of people doing that. i think everybody wrote it. then new money came and continue to invest in equities and maybe the rotation that happened this year has driven more of the rally into other sectors and that is people taking gains out of tech. i think people are trying to avoid taking those big gains. >> you are looking into a seasonably good period. april is good according to ryan dietrich of cmt. we have had him on. second best month since 1950, third best over the last 20 years, fourth best over the last 10, fourth best an election year. seasonally, you are set up to potentially continue this and obviously you have the fed and these possible cuts starting this summer looming. >> right. i happen to think the fed is

going to be a lot more patient then we originally thought obviously. even more so then we think right now. i think that they are going to move much more slowly and perhaps even more slowly then most other major central banks. that means that maybe they do start when we expect but then they keep it on pause from that point and the whole point is it is a slow-moving bowling ball through molasses as they start the cutting cycle. markets tend to do pretty well. this happens to be a very long period in between the last and the first. if the fed makes it to november, it would be the longest ever. so waiting for news and waiting for reasons to stay optimistic. and we are getting them so far. >> id you see with the morgan stanley former chairman and ceo said on this very network earlier today? i would like to read it to you and get you to respond to it. it is related to the fed and how many cuts we may get if any. he says i would be surprised if they move in the first half of the year.

i wouldn't be totally shocked if they don't do anything. he said i would be surprised if they move in the first half of the year and not shocked if they don't do anything for the rest of the year. what happens if he is right and they don't do anything for the whole year? >> that is the definition of higher for longer and i think that would help their credibility on the inflation fight because then they themselves, the protection they have is that they are not at 2% by the end of the year and if the data comes in this strong and the labor market holds up, that is them staying true to their word and there is no reason to cut. and if the economy can withstand it, that's okay. i think they will start cutting this year. i think he is right about the first half. i would be surprised if they start in the first half at this point. i don't think we are necessarily heading for three cuts but i think they will start this year. >> june counts as the first half of technically speaking. so if you get the first one in june and they see how things unfold -- if you get one, do you think that is okay?

is a decent enough? i have had people make the argument before that as long as we know the next move is a cut, it doesn't matter when it comes but the fact that the regime of hiking the way they did so strongly and swiftly is over. and that is why we know the market has been rallied. >> i would agree with that. however, they were late on the hiking cycle and they will probably be late on the cutting cycle. that is because the data is delayed. they almost have to be late. they need confirmation of certain things before they feel comfortable starting to cut. >> the economy is good. it gives them a cushion. >> i would also agree, i don't think the amount matters. i don't think it will matter if it is in june or july or if it is 25 basis points are not. it is the fact that they messaged that they are starting the cutting cycle and the market will move on that message alone. >> let's talk about momentum. let's talk about before the momentum trade. bank of air america securities flow.

people keep getting securities and tech. after outflows, most weeks in 24. money coming back. comp services, the largest buying of every sector. 20 straight weeks. people are not willing to give up on the trade which some continue to declared dead or tired or whatever. >> the enthusiasm runs rampant. and i think there is so much buying appetite and so much risk appetite that anytime there is a pull back -- and obviously the tech trade has seen softness coming into the year, especially compared to what happened last year. so people saw it as an opportunity. i think that speaks a lot to investor sentiment right now, wanting the market to continue marching forward and being okay with the idea that it is not going to do it at as fast a clip as it had before. >> i'm looking at sectors and over the month, it has evened out. tech dropped back to six. things like energy, which are the best and utilities have

done well and financials. tech is not a slouch but materials have done well. let's broaden out our conversation and bring in courtney garcia of capital management. a cnbc contributor. welcome. good to see you too. what is your view? are we losing momentum as a rally? or are we just good? just rest and refresh? >> i do firmly believe that the markets will continue the momentum higher and for a couple reasons. the biggest reason is the fed has gone ahead and indicated that they are likely at the end of the hiking cycle and they will be cutting. to your point, we don't know when it will happen or how much but it is on the downward direction. you are saying the cash come off the sideline. we saw the huge $6 billion in cash finally go down. seeing people unfortunately trying to chase the rally. they don't want to miss out on this. they are taking the money and putting it into tech. while i do think that it is on borrowed time, people will continue to put money there, at least in the short term. it is not necessarily where i'm allocating money but i think the general market will see

that continue. >> symbol phi the whole thing. don't fight the fed. that is basically what it sounds like. drum powell was dovish on weigh -- fed day. cuts coming this year. of the end of the day, that over showers everything else? >> it is interesting to me but i don't disagree with what they said. we have a strong economy and a strong labor market. they are kind of showing their hand early which is now indicating that the markets will price that in regardless of it happening or not. markets tend to overshoot these things. so you do have to follow what the fed is saying in the short term but it could affect them cutting later because they could have additional growth in the economy. just by indicating they will probably be cutting later. >> and responding to the goldmans by david costa "the market is flat from here to end the year 5200. that is the target.

you have modest growth in earnings. 8% looking into this year and 5- 6% in to 25. that is the trajectory of profits. is a good enough? 8% this year and 5%-6% next year? >> that would be an average-ish year. rarely to be hit average on the nose with returns. i'm guessing that he doesn't think nothing happens between now and the end of the year. the path to that point might be a little bit more bumpy than what that would suggest. >> he has already had to raise his target on the s&p a couple times. everybody has. yesterday we got more bumps from 5400, 5200. the s&p right now at 52.28. you can see why this is progressive. >> right. i would imagine the path to get to that place will be bumpy. i don't think we will have one that stays under 13 for the entirety of the year especially if we do approach a cutting cycle. depending on what the data looks like as we approach the cutting cycle, because it will start to be interpreted in a way that now they are cutting because things are cooling too

much. the other thing about the sector behavior, you are seeing life out of the defensive sectors. utilities and you have not seen that for a while. i think right now, the trade is about dividends. i don't think it is about fear. >> dividends preparing for the fact that yields will continue to go down because the cutting expectations go up. so therefore utilities. >> correct. and they are defensive sectors by nature. i think the interpretation might get mixed for a little while and if defensive sectors are catching a bid, it is because something is going wrong or the market is sniffing around and the market is trying to get ahead of short-term yields. >> we were talking about tech. i think you said the words are, it's not where i'm allocating capital right now but where are you. what is next? >> we have been doing that all

year. we own technology as part of the portfolio. it has been the best performer over the past year. we have been making sure that things will cash and energy, that has been a good trade this year and it is not because we have this gifted insight. things were cheaper. you will see things broaden out which is what we have been seeing. what we will probably continue to see is that of tech it continues to do so well, you will probably have to take profits from there and add to other sectors. with new cash, current valuations, it is not the best place to put your money. >> and an anomaly. does that continue? what do you think? >> i think of economic data continues to be strong and people are optimistic about a cyclical recovery, i think that continues. it would be a rotation from 2023, for 2024 and energy as we know was a big laggard in 2023. if we are looking at the manufacturing rebounds and the activity that happened in the slowing we were worried about

turning too far in the other direction, energy continues to catch a bid. industrials if we think there is going to be government investment. materials and commodities and all that cyclical investment. >> you didn't say financials. i was going to ask about that. it is a double-digit percentage gainers so far this year what you think of the financials? that was a positive note today from morgan stanley's katy huberty, saying that these are primed. capital markets returning. is this the time? >> it is an area we have been continuing to add to the financials. we have been looking at the larger money center banks for the regionals. i think they will see shorter- term volatility. you absolutely want to be able to play those. especially the dividend. we are not going to get that kind of money. you will have to get cashel in the portfolio and this is a good source for that. >> lives, financials? >> i think you have to be choosy. i don't think we are out of the woods on the regional bank and unrealized losses issue. i don't think we are out of the woods of commercial real

estate. we know about those risks so they are not going to come out of nowhere and surprise us. >> big banks. lets go big. >> the resurgence of capital markets activity is a good thing and i think they are in a strong position. i don't see a ton of rally from here and big banks because of something that would happen. >> why not? >> if the rally continues to rotate, it is based more on tangible activity in the economy. so things like industrials which have rallied quite a bit and materials. and if inflation stays higher, it is because of demand rather than a lack of supply. >> what about valuations of banks, and some would say more attractive. like take a flyer now on tech or some of the chip stocks were the evaluations have expanded and sort of leaving valuations of the lesser performing sectors in the dust. >> yes. the evaluations are more attractive. but i don't think that is the place people will be clambering

over themselves for growth opportunity. so comparing it to taca, if you are looking in tech and you still want tech growth, you will continue to see money flow into things like software or out of some of the stuff that is obviously a crowded trade. the growth opportunity now i think is still in healthcare and even parts of small cap healthcare and and parts of those cyclical areas that would benefit from inflation saying high. >> leave us with a thought about pce. markets close for good friday. some interest -- monday will be interesting around here one way or the other. what are you thinking about? >> this will be the big key this week. we are not going to have a lot of exciting data up until friday and of course the markets are closed. we will see things go up or down monday depending on the reaction. we are hopeful that we will continue to see numbers showing that inflation is moderating which is supportive of the fed likely lowering rate sometime next year. they will be data dependent. so we have to wait for those numbers to come out. >> see you soon.

thank you. apple announcing a date for the annual worldwide developers conference. could this be the company's big ai moment? we have those details. and i suppose that it better be. >> it better be. and let's get the data first. june 10th is when w was kept all cap c will happen and this is the event where apple typically introduces the latest software for its gadgets like the iphone, iphone or mac. sometimes new hardware like the vision pro the debut last year, you are with me last year when that happens. this year will be even more important because we are expecting this to be when apple makes the ai announcement it has been teasing for the last several weeks. let's give you some evidence. look at this tweet from the apple marketing boss. teasing, absolutely incredible wdc. he did some capital words there. apple has put enormous pressure on itself as tim cook put it,

to break new ground in artificial intelligence. the company doesn't have a clear ai narrative yet and said, pointing to pass products and recently renaming them as artificial intelligence. last week, we learned apple is also in talks with companies like google to use ai in part for whatever new features apple plans to reveal. and we may learn the extent of this relationship that wwdc. and there is a lot hinging on that announcement. bullish analysts believe that this will be the event that starts the turnaround for the apple's tough year so far. apple has high expectations to meet and it sets some of them itself. meantime, apple is down 11% on the year and lost that top market cap spot to microsoft. >> they want to be talking more about the letters ai and not so much doj. they need to steal the narrative back. >> or dma. all the headwinds facing in europe. the challenge to the adherence to what we got yesterday.

that could force them to make more changes to their services business over there and opened it up for more competitors. so there is a lot going on that could distract them. this will be the ai event, it sounds like. >> we are wrapping up the quarter. i would be remiss if i didn't ask you your thoughts about what the stock has done as a sort from doorstop sort them in the make it trade. it is not often we are sitting here talking about this stock is such a dramatic underperformers. >> and it has been the leader. keep in mind that it started the year is the most valuable company in the world and it gave that up to microsoft. the gap between the two companies keeps getting wider and wider. part of it is smart phone demand and the problems in china with demand plummeting. not to mention the resurgence of new competition. and i keep saying, the question around ai and what does that look like. and be extended out even further, the next iphone, what can they put in the next iphone that is unique to it.

some kind of ai special feature that will cause people to want to upgrade maybe before they would be ready. those are all lingering questions hanging on as we get to wwdc. >> exciting. we appreciate you. thank you very much. let's go to hippa stevens for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. >> shares of trumpet media and technology group, the company behind donald trump's truth social platform surging today and the debut on the nasdaq. the stock which is trading under the ticker g dt. the former president own 50% of the company. on a roller coaster ride for shares of the international paper hitting a 52 week high before turning negative after ds smith talked about talks of being taken over by international paper. the move could start a bidding war after an offer was submitted earlier this month. that stock now in the red today. >> thank you very much.

we are just getting started here. coming up, what is next for this record rally? our top technician jason hunter is back with us and why he says he is suspicious of the momentum and the sectors that he thinks will see serious strength the head. that is right after the break. we are live from the new york stock exchange. you are watching closing bell on cnbc. ♪♪ ♪♪

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and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. see why comcast business powers more small businesses than anyone else. get started for $49.99 a month plus ask how to get up to an $800 prepaid card. don't wait- call today. welcome back. stocks in the green across the board. the s&p tries to rebound from back-to-back losses. my next guest calls the rally broadening suspicious and says now is the time to sell the breakdown in crowd of momentum groups. let's bring in jpmorgan's jason hunter. welcome back. good to see you. >> let's start with how the rally looks to you overall. we are about to close the quarter and on a five month winning streak. how to be look? >> it started out as a very

thin rally. those have paused for the better part of the last few weeks. and what has taken the leadership in a way has been the deep cyclical. industrials, materials, energy and financials. that coincided with a sharp lift in commodity prices, industrial metals and the energy sector as well. likely put in our notes that we publish this morning, that seems suspicious in terms of the timing. if you look at the shape of the treasury curve, we are able to have comparative the analysis of the u.s. manufacturing cycle. going back to the 1960s at the five-year curve. and more than 100 basis points. history suggests it will be hard for manufacturing cycles. a substantial one anyway, to play out from here. it is really what those deep cyclicals need to continue to rally from here. like i said, the broadening of the rally from a technical perspective. if you are looking at market breath, that is what the bulls

want to see. >> those that tried to make calls based on history, they have had them run over by a herd of bulls, throughout the whole period, it feels like. history suggests that if the fed does this, the economy does that. history says when you have one big group leaving or leading for some time, it is unsustainable and the market rolls over. none of it happened. >> you could put us in that camp as well. you think about the legs of an inverted curve and the transmission when it starts to dig up prices and equities and equities think about risks going forward for the broader economy. we ourselves in the technical group here at jpmorgan thought that that would have happened sooner. the reality is, ever since the s&p pushed above the 4400 level, we have been skeptical and here we are poking at the

5200 and above area. it is a long and variable period where there is little hang time the last few quarters and you have paid the price for that doing the comparative analysis. looking at the post 1980 world when the legs were longer and more variable than what you saw and the pre-1980 cycles, 22 months after the three month five-year curve inverts, that is typically on average when you saw or see the data finally starting to inflect lower in the economic data that would put us roughly at august of this year. and it should be led by 1-3 quarters. so cannot stretch longer than that? sure. so though momentum is strong. stop trying to fight the trend. going to the neutral stance. right now we have gotten out of the two pronged approach. if the leadership breaks down and coincidently, the 50 day moving average starts at those support levels. so it is a nice and easy number to look at for some more like

the nasdaq or s&p, if those break to the downside, you follow that and go short and a tight stop. on the flipside, small caps are usually the last to go on the pmi cycle or the manufacturing cycle. there is a lot of catch up there. while we are skeptical of that, we would follow suit. and if it breaks above, you start stepping into exposure on the long side. >> that is the risk scenario. we hard to see that unfold. if a technician breaks out, we see what happens. >> i sincerely appreciate all of that. a lot of technicians have been caught under a steamroller this rally has been confounding to some. you mentioned the momentum in the mega caps. stalling or looking like it is fading. pausing is not necessarily a bad thing for a trade that was virtually straight up. >> that is right.

and that is like normally when we see this type of deceleration and a trend, particularly with a yield curve inverted, that is usually a time where we get aggressive and say, go short. don't wait for the break down. ahead of it and don't give up that 3-5%. but because the momentum has been so powerful since the october lows and we have seen this acceleration without breaking support at least three times since early december, we want to wait for the breakdown at this point. or the distribution pattern to form. neither of those are in the cards right now. at this point, you respect the momentum and stay on the side and wait for them to do something wrong before you go from a bearish perspective. >> from a historical perspective, we threw a little cold water on looking at history. the market is just different. april is traditionally a good month for stocks. i said it all steps at the beginning of the program about how traditionally well this one

is for the bulls. >> . you can look at the seasonal patterns. the main problem i have with those types of things, the errors are usually multiple of the forecast. it is hard to go along with those sorts of things. particularly after the size of the rally you have had here. we are not bullish. we only by breakout and small cap. your reference to april is usually to the outside. >> there have been starts and fits. and hard for a whole mass of people to get behind the trade. some suggest you have to wait for the fed to start cutting. if you see a breakout, you would be a believer. >> i think they are two reasons. number one, if there is a pmi cycle, the last time we had small caps underperformed to the extent we have and the pmi data has led leading markets like semiconductors and european autos, that was 2012 after the crisis and the u.s.

debt situation. small caps had a multi- quarter period of tremendous performance as the pmi data and manufacturing data started to go. on the flipside, along with the bullish mega cap momentum, you look at the community, and that in part has gone hand in hand with small cap high beta low quality. and the team here, they published a sizable piece on this a couple weeks ago where you have so much crowding into that trade structure that you could get something of a momentum crash with either good news or bad news were large cap underperforms and small caps outperform in a sizable way. >> we appreciate your time. thank you very much. coming up, the top rated firm creative planning is here with a forecast for the sector. the one mega cap name that he thinks could have issues ahead

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tech is one of the top performing sectors this quarter with the space hitting a record high today. while the next guest is bullish

on tailwinds from ai, he does see potential issues ahead for one of the group's leadership names. we have the president and ceo of creative planning. good to see you. welcome to closing bell. >> great to be with you. >> what jumps out to me first on the list of things you say you don't like in tech, nvidia is on the list. what? >> tech has a long way to go. a lot of clients ask, how long will this tech rally continue? i say, for the rest of your life. we are in the middle of a revolution, in the middle of the ai resolution and chipmakers will do well for decades. but with nvidia, and i don't know when it will pause but it will pause. what is different about nvidia is, i would not equate it to apple. as a company that has a significant protection for all time. i would put in the same boat i put a company like netflix or tesla which is an incredible company, innovative company.

who knows how much longer it has to run and it has a head start. and those are very different things. companies with the head start, the market eventually catches up with them. the revolution can continue but that does not mean all the eggs should be in the nvidia basket. >> if you have the best and most powerful component that seemingly everyone needs and cooler, it has to be a bit of a moat. the amount they are able to charge for the transformative chip say have, it has to be a bit of a moat somewhere. >> everything you said i would say is correct and i would add the words, "for now." everyone needs it. not a lot of alternatives. competitors will get started. the amd's of the world and you have other players like oracle. there will be all kinds of companies that will be successful and will figure it out and eventually they will catch up.

we see that. this earnings ratio will come back down to earth. that might be a couple of years or a couple of months. i'm not big on timing the short run. the spaces are for real and the company is for real. at some point, people will regret if they have all eggs in the basket. or having a significant position as part of the portfolio on the space. i have seen a lot of people that have come to us. it is 20, 60% of the portfolio. they think it is the new apple and it is not the new apple. it is a leader in the space and it is innovative and it is an incredible company. but apple does not have competitors that are real competitors that threaten its business enterprise. and nvidia has real competitors. they will catch up in a few years. we see a lot of them emerge and be successful. >> do you guys on the stock? >> we do. the largest part of most of the client's portfolios is indexed space. one of the largest positions for the clients that have that

large cap position that most clients do. they have reaped a lot of reward from nvidia. we have seen the tech stocks lift up for example, the s&p 500 year over year. everybody says, the s&p 500 is terrible except for apple or terrible except for facebook. and this year, it is terrible except for nvidia and a couple of other names. that is the point. 30-40% will be technology and the winners -- a loser can only go down 100% and a winter can go up 1000%. that is the whole point of taking that approach. you don't have too many eggs in one basket. but you are still participating in the upside when these runaway companies happen. >> one of the eggs that looked to have cracked is apple. you do like that stock. tell me why. >> i love apple and i love it all the time. if you went to the average american that has an iphone and said, for the rest of your

life, i'm going to take your iphone away or one of your fingers, the majority of them will say, here's my hand. go ahead and take a finger. this company, there is no real competitive threat to apple. the only risk apple faces that i think is serious is regulatory risk. even that will be muted to some degree. so it will have headwinds like it is facing now. if you told me i had to own nvidia or apple and wake up 20 years from now at which one would have done better, i will take apple. >> we will leave it at that. stocks at 170. some people think they might go lower. good to have you on the program. >> next, tracking the biggest movers as we go into the closed. and experimental pill could tip the scales for a weight loss drug manufacturer. we have those details coming up next.

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just shy of 15 minutes to go before the closing bell. let's get back to a look at the key stocks we are watching. >> rising therapeutics is searching after the company patients experimental weight loss pill showed positive results in a small study and it will enter the next stage of development later this year. the stock more than quadrupling year to date amid momentum behind the weight loss market.

mccormick jumping after the spice maker beat top and bottom line estimates for the 1st quarter. the ceo said on the call that the budgets are stretched and higher inflation in the food service channel means consumers are eating at home more which is helping the company patients bottom line. the stock up 10%. thank you. still ahead, shares of ups are sinking today. we will break down what is sending that lower and bringing comments from the company's ceo. closing bell will be right back.

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i want to show you shares of reddit. more than 40% this week alone. one firm is negative on the name. saying it could fall 10% from here. for more, go to cnbc.com or scan the qr code on your screen for more information. next, your gamestop set up. that stock has had a rough run falling nearly 40% over the

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significant objections to the way the market is asking -- acting. low volatility drifted the end of the quarter sitting less than 1% from the all-time high. kind of sealing the books on a strong start to the year. that being said, i have a hard time not looking for what could possibly be standing out as less than strong. this is the fourth kind of exhausted sagging close in a row. maybe that is just the rebalancing of stocks and bonds that happen in the absence of other macro effects. and it is tough. i find personally tough to stick with a market where your main advantage is not overthinking it. your main advantage is, let the market keep grinding on the same positive news flow and backdrop. i find a more comfortable when there isn't really a steep wall of worry. a few months ago you could say, everybody thinks that this is everything and that the stocks fall apart and we are in trouble. i was able to say, i don't

think so. similarly with the fed rate cuts. everyone is on board with, everybody is okay if we don't get rate cuts soon. i'm in the mode of saying, give you respect to this trend. be aware that this is when unexpected stuff happens. >> over thinkers have been run over. >> to a large degree. i'm thinking more in the last few weeks when it started to seem like this complete lack of a 2% pull back and five months gets extreme. >> let's see what happens with the pce. i know we are not going to trade on friday but monday will be interesting. >> i'm willing to completely concede. there is an upside risk to it too. if that is tame and all the sudden it looks like powell nailed it by just sort of not budgeting on the rate cuts and all the rest, then it is clear for takeoff. >> perceived impediment gone. >> keep watching the mega caps

too. there was a moment today where many of the m's who were in the green and now a scenario where many are in the red. tesla has come off of its high too. >> all the energy is in the small and fast-moving and exciting speculative stuff today. maybe that has taken some strength away from nvidia. >> not so special delivery today. for ups, what is driving this stock lower? >> this kind of came in two waves after it opened higher. the first, when ups said in its own presentation at the parcel shipping market in the u.s. has the capacity of 12 million packages per day raising a few eyebrows about the ups ability to hold pricing and margins. second, the company said the cumulative would come in lower than the first half estimate. that leads to questions about how the company will achieve targets not only long-term but in the short term and leading to levels we are seeing now on

pace for the worst sins earnings. they appeared on cnbc earlier today discussing the current environment. >> we did see volume leave us during the contract negotiation. and more then we expected. i'm happy to report that we have brought 60% of the volume that diverted back into the network. and it's not just about winning back but about winning new. we do believe volume will be down in the first half of the year but we expected to return to growth in the back half of the year. >> i spoke with a number of analysts. they found the targets were aspirational. and this depends on a goldilocks scenario, not just for ups but for the entire economy. and the skepticism says in part that the 2026 eps estimate is 20% higher than the numbers and ups missing targets from last time. >> quickly, why such a

discrepancy between the performance of fedex and ups? it is not even close? >> a lot of speculation. fedex shares up about 2%. so you see where ups is now. >> i'm talking about month to date, quarter today. it is not even close. >> you have to remember that january 30th is when ups had the last earnings. the last time it had a day this bad. i believe they missed volume by about 10%. 10% below estimates. a lot of questions about exactly how they will work off this teamsters contract. they said it was kind of a barbell thing. we will see the impact in the beginning and in the middle. they would see some easing of cost pressures and have to pay more at the end. and at the same time, cutting costs. so paying more for labor even though it is in the front end

and cutting costs. missing the mark in the eyes of analysts and investors a bit. >> appreciate that. watching gamestop earnings, what to expect? >> not a lot of visibility. what we do know is that there is data from the holiday quarter. the audio game console sales have softened a bit. we heard that from nintendo and sony. we can see how that impacts sales at gamestop. the company does not give guidance or hold a conference call. so it is unclear what to expect beyond softening demand. we will see what the results have been after the bell. >> we will look forward to that. thank you very much for the sound effect. mostly lower. a tight range here. >> that has been a comfortable situation. the highs have managed to sit around.

it is fine. i think the macro stability is allowing people to do other things like buy read it. that is one of the top 12 most active stocks and options on the brokers platform. four days into its history. and then we have -- it is sort of the fun part of the market where the stakes are low in terms of real world but high in terms of risk toward it seems like that is where the energy is falling. i'm not one to look at people doing the speculative stuff and schooled and say that this means the market is hopping. it really doesn't. it is a bull market behaving like a bull market. but it is notable that you are starting to see other names being taken up in that current. >> use the word energy. it has had a really good month. up 8%. it has been the out performer. we will see if that trend continues.

>> so these inflationary moves going on in the market in general. and just the market is kind of stable. money is kind of flowing elsewhere. >> sometimes you jumped the gun a little bit. >> getting a little excited. >> we will go red. see you tomorrow >> stocks sinking into the close as the s&p 500 falls for the third straight day. will come to closing built over time. great to be with you. healthcare and financials. energy and tech dragging the market lower. >> i'm here in las vegas were