here on stage used to take weeks, maybe months to do, now, it can be done in hours, right the whole process, from generating the things to sharing and deciding, so, that's going to be something. >> adobe up about a percent or so after hours, it's been a pleasure being here on "overtime" oday, but that does it for the show today. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight surging prices, from copper and coe coal near record levels to the jump in beef, crude, cotton, and even lumber again, how will these moves impact the fed and markets next moves we'll debate that. plus, how about a would you rather on a tuesday? spicy. the traders set to weigh in on a few leaders and laggards in a host of sectors, banks, travel, autos and more. and later, the new data behind the viking surge. a spectacular day for one djt.

and germany going to pot how its move to legalize cannabis will impact the sector. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with the stealth price surge that may signal inflation may be sticking around cocoa prices topping the $10,000 market for the first time ever today, the sweet staple has risen 130% just this year, and it's not the only commodity on the rise pork, oj, cotton agricultural prices are surging. in fact, the dba is up 18% since january 1, on pace for its biggest quarterly gain on record do the moves suggest relief on the inflation front may not be as immediate as we hope, guy >> rhetorical question the answer is yes. dba made a ten-year high, i think, today, and the major components, coffee, cocoa, soybeans, corn, live cattle,

sugar to a certain extent, that doesn't even take into consideration what we're seeing in copper. what we're seeing in the energy complex. and you throw in a couple others so, the answer to your question, no, i don't think inflation is tamed at all i thought you'd start to see a reacceleration last fall maybe it's later than i thought, but it's happening now >> you are worried that it's stickier >> i am a little bit worried we talk every so however often, the powell conversation connells comes up, why does he need to do it when inflation seems to be persistent, not as bad, but this is certainly more evidence of that, and so, i keep thinking, all right, maybe the market -- they always think, if he doesn't cut now, he will one day, so, let's put a high multiple on it. i'm a little concerned about that there won't be three cuts, and actually james gorman today, he said maybe they don't cut at all -- >> would not be surprised if they didn't move at all. >> if we were at this point six months from now, i would say,

yeah, that seems the case, so, i'm not that excited about this idea that we're going to see a cut and the market's going to rally. >> consumer, though, is still relatively strong, despite the higher prices that they're paying at the grocery store, at the pump, it's do-- car insurane health insurance, they are still spending they are employed. >> yeah, they're spending, and spending for now, and i think we've all acknowledged that the financial conditions out there are extremely loose. you can look at credit spreads, which i've quoted, go all the way back to june of 2007, tight in terms of at least a high yield oas. and i think the fed did a terrible job last week in terms of their messages on inflation and what they would do and how they would begin to cut before that happens and, you know -- you never go out and say that, he's still data dependent those words were uttered over and over again, but the reality is that, look at higher inflation in the form of higher interest rates that are slowly feeding into just higher prices.

the cost of living has gone higher look at gold, which i believe closed at an all-time high today. gold, a lot of times people say actually struggled under inflationary environment, but actually it's really the opposite it does hold its value what we're seeing in gold and bitcoin has -- is, you know, loud and clear says the message on inflation is far from over. >> as it relates to the consumer, we didn't mention education, health care, i mean, they are just structural you think about wages, demographics and i just go back to -- we talk about the cpi, we're at, what, 3.2% or something like that. the average cpi over the last 25 years has been 2.5% or something like that. you know what fed funds has been on average over the last 25 years? it's basically been 2% so, at some point, maybe the fed needs to kind of rejigger that cpi target we spent time debating that or whatever, but the structural changes to, like, our economy and then some of the other more advanced economies with the demographic shifts going on, i mean, we're not going to get education under control. we're not going to get health

care under control so, all that stuff that gets stripped out of then coschumer stuff at some point, we're going to have to change the narrative about where these numbers are, because that's the stuff that we spend a lot of time talking about on this desk >> there is a dichotomy between, you know, where the consumer, where the individual person, thinks the economy is, particularly when it comes to election year polls, and the picture that the fed paints of the economy, which, you know, when they had the press conference, it was basically an all-clear for 2024 so, you have to wonder, like, at what point does that converge and how does it converge and what does that mean for spending, for corporate profits, et cetera? >> well, there's a couple sort of counters to what we just -- i'm not sure if that answers your question. where do they want real rates to be, right? so, we have the ten-year and we have inflation and right now -- there is some room there, if that's what the fed wants, to allow, right then they could have real rates by cuts, they would have real rates -- that's one.

and then, one other thing that sort of unexplain bly, gdp has been so good, productivity element in there that could persist that would give the fed some cover to do that? i don't know i just pose it as a question, because we haven't been able to figure out, why is gdp so strong >> right productivity could be an aspect that's not reflected what is also not reflected, inflationary pressures that we have not fully seen yet and i'm thinking about some of the things we invest, like, the notion of reshoring. we talk all the time about the reshoring plays. reshoring is nflationary, and so, if we're going to invest in the stock because of the resh reshoring trend, then you have to see it at some point in the economy. >> no doubt. we had three decades of china exports deflation, and that was good for everybody we all know china is in a different place, structurally, their economy. and you if look at the crb index, the commodity research bureau index, you can look at

the crb rind, which is second derivative inputs, but it's up over 11% this year just year to date. that tells you the kind of move that we've seen. but if you look at it relative to history, when was the last time we were really having this anxiety, when markets were going haywire and commodity prices were going to the moon i remember people started investing in the resources asset class for the first time, a lot of people didn't know, obviously, you know what it is by the name, but they didn't know what that meant it's back in 2007. if you look at the crb, it's making a run at those 2007 levels that were a function of a lot of different things that included speculative environment and where i think we are, you know, certainly interest rates were in a different place, and yet, that was the beginning, really, of when the fed had to cut to zero. >> we'll do something later, the have and have nots, but the consumer is spending, but combatting inflation with debt, which is a bit of a problem. but people have no choice. and the reason why it's interesting, i think we learned the hard way that asset prices

have nothing to do with the economy. the president's approval rating would be through the roof if it was. and it's probably at historic lows now through the prism of just the economy, which tells you something about how people are feeling out there. >> we have a news alert on ame merck. a drug approved for treatment of high blood pressure. for big pharma, this is good news we've seen struggles with the need to replace blockbusters, former blockbursters with new ones >> merck is about as close as you can get. it's a portfolio that's connecting if they're connecting in an area that we know is at least half a step away from also the glp land, but also, what they've been doing in oncology, what they've been doing in some of the other key parts of what i would say, the high margin drug world, merck's -- look, merck's near all-time highs, it is now

through all-time highs and probably go higher >> real quick, we talked about this, but merck will do 34% more revenues than eli lilly and trades at half the market cap. and i understand that lilly is in a different world, but don't underestimate how valuable and, i think, unappreciated the stock is, despite the fact, as tim just said, at $130 anden chang, this is an all-time high >> let's get to steve liesman with us now. steve, all the commodities that we talked about, that we listed here hitting new highs, et cetera, you know this, is this on the fed's radar because consumers see it, consumers feel it, and yet, the fed gave the all-clear at the last meeting >> yeah. pardon me, it is -- pardon me. just had a drink there water, of course let me -- let me calm you down and then make you a little bit

more anxious the first thing is this. commodities don't feed directly into consumer prices so -- pardon me. you can have a surge in commodity prices and it won't nicely show up in the cpi. the problem is that we have still high service inflation, and goods inflation and commodity deflation, disinflation, has offset some of that what we're losing is the offset to higher service prices this is the reason why, coming out of the meeting, and the last past several days i've been very concerned that the market's gotten a little too bullish on the outlook for the fed. the reason is because, when i look at the outlook for the march cpi report, reported in april, i don't think it's going to show very much improvement. we have a pc report coming on friday, and it seems like it's going to be kind of, you know, just pretty much constant, or pretty much unchanged, relative to where it was in the prior month. so, i think there's reason for

concern here, and not a lot of reason for optimism, when it comes to the next couple months. i think inflation does eventually come down, but i think we're partially seeing, by the way, better global growth. >> steve, it's karen, thanks for being on, especially with the throat issue, good luck with that why do you think that powell seemed to be sol dovish? >> i think people maybe read a little more into it what they wanted to hear into powell i think powell was kind of neutral,en and the thing i thout was most neutral was looking at the dots the dots shifted a little bit to the right. we were one vote away from losing that three-cut average, or median, among the fed officials, and look, whoever it was saying, i think guy said earlier, the fed is, indeed, data dependent, it was tim, if these numbers don't improve, you ain't getting your cuts.

and so, i think what you want to think about is, if we don't get improvement in march, which will be reported in april what does that say to you about a june cut? if we don't get the june cut, what does that say to you about the ability, or the willingness of the fed to execute three cuts this year? and i think that is definitely going to be suspect over time. i think you just have to be very careful here not that the fed won't necessarily cut three times, they may do it, the question is, how much risk that you're wrong are you building into your outlook? it felt to me like the market went all-in on the three cuts. i think there's some risk of -- there's some possibility, probability, there's only two, and gorman may be right there's only one >> steve, thank you. we appreciate it steve liesman. >> pleasure. >> our next guest says now is the time to shift focus from valuation gains to earnings growth fidelity director of global macro is with us welcome. >> good afternoon. >> you are pretty bullish when

it comes to this rally that bo we've seen so far. >> well, it's been a very unusual cycle. we can credit the pandemic for that and we're still feeling, you know, the effects from that. so, the market bottomed, you know, in retrospect, it's easy to say, but it wasn't so much in real time, but the market botbottom ed in october 2022 and this january, the s&p 500 cap weighed index finally made a new all-time high, which, you know, any technician or market historian will say, okay, that -- those are the book ends for a bear market, and the beginning of a bull market and the s&p 500 equal weighed index started to make new all-time highs just, you know, a few weeks ago. after 26 months of sitting in limbo, basically and, you know, a chartist will look at that and say, that's more likely than not a basing pattern, and, you know, valuations are very high, as well all know, 21 times forward

earnings, 23 times trailing earnings, and typically, at this stage or by this stage, the baton would have been passed from valuation gains to earnings gains, and the good news is that those earnings gains are happening, and that the market is broadening, you know, 81% of the s&p 500 stocks are now above their 200-day moving average, and fourth quarter earnings season was really good, you know, the -- the estimated growth rate going into earnings season was 1%, and at the end of earnings season, it was 8% so, we have some good momentum, but the market has a lot of growing to do to start coming into its valuation, and that, i think, remains the challenge here it is poised for perfection, and as you just discussed, even little things that might happen later than sooner, like rate cuts, or earnings gains, you know, leaves the market kind of -- not over its skis, but it needs everything to go right here

>> you just mentioned the equal weight s&p 500, it's up 5% year to date versus the market cap weight, about 9.25% or so. we still have this outperformance of the concentration of the large names. when i think about the large names, on a day like today, or just look at apple look at tesla. these were two of the largest stocks in that top ten, or whatever the s&p 500 and you are kind of losing them. they are kind of losing their growth story well, clearly losing if you want to shift from valuation to earnings now, if we start to see some of these companies that have been massive outperformers, let's say we get a downshift of growth in the back half of the year, that could set up a pretty nasty, you know, scenario for the s&p 500, which you said, is expensive 2sh a 21 times >> it's been a conundrum to war game, if you will, what happens when the mag seven, or, i look at it as sort of the nifty 50, because we've had episodes like that in the past, you know, what

happens when they lose their momentum can it be a bullish broadening, where the rest of the market sort of picks up the slack or is the power of those mag seven so great, you know, because they comprise almost a third of the overall index, that if they -- if they lose their way, the index has to go down, so, i am heartened by just -- the year's only three months in, but i'm heartened by the fact that the market had to really walk back from an unrealistically large number of expected rate cuts at the beginning of the year. market was expecting six, seven, it's down from there and probably still too high, but the market's been able to do that without falling apart, and even with the mag seven, as you just mentioned, they're starting to fray but it's not really, you know, hitting the market, at least not yet, and so, i'm h

heartened by the resilience in the broader tape and i think it highlights the fact that 493 stocks, not to xak rate, but a large part of the market, has been sort of in this market purgatory for over two years, just sitting there doing nothing, but in a long trading range while the fed was raising the cost of capital. and while earnings have declined modestly, and now, presumably, as that vice gets lifted from the market with the fed, you know, maybe giving back a few rate cuts, a few rate hikes, that the rest of the market can start to breathe again >> jurrien, thank you. >> you're welcome. >> so, i want to pick up where jurrien left off, in terms of the digestion, going from six cuts anticipated at the beginning of '24 to now three, when we go from three to -- >> zero, or one. >> whatever. we've digested that very well in terms of the market action, but what happens from three to sub three, do you think? >> well, counterintuitivety, i

think that would be bullish from the market because that would suggest that nothing happened, nothing broke. the market can withstand no new rate cuts, and i think that would actually be probably supportive of equities i think people are wishing for the wrong thing in the form of rate cuts. when they start to cut is when things start to get dicey. >> what do you think >> yeah, it seems so far the market has just said, they will cut, they will cut and it could cost, even if they don't cut -- >> oh, it will happen in '25 >> exactly so, we're good >> we've had this conversation, we had it, i think, last week that the market's early cycle, so, depends on what you're looking at i think the rsp etf, which tracks the equal weighed s&p, that outright, really is basically making effectively lows or hitting those lows against the s&p, so, it's not like it's a big outperformance i look at my portfolio, it's taken a long time, he's right to point out certain parts are

going up after two years, i look at gm, citi bank, delta, these things are rallying. the problem with the eps outlook is that between communications and it, most of that eps is all coming right there and the nasdaq, carter said this, is basically flat to the s&p. you can go back to '21 and kind of look at that relative index, though i would like to point out until that really starts to break down, i think we're okay. a busy port in baltimore remains closed after a shipping tanker struck a bridge and caused it to collapse overnight. search and rescue operations continue for six missing people and federal authorities are examining the impacts on international trade. eamon javers is live in baltimore with the very latest eamon? >> melissa, the city of baltimore and the state of maryland are settling in for what is expected now to be a very long recovery effort here at the port of baltimore we heard from transportation secretary pete buttigieg just a short time ago, he talked about the economic impact of this

bridge and this port, and a little bit of a sense of what's ahead. take a listen. >> this is no ordinary bridge. this is one of the cathedrals of american infrastructure. it has been part of the skyline of this region for longer than many of us have been alive so, the path to normalcy will not be easy, it will not be quick, it will not be inexpensive. but we will rebuild together >> and melissa, to give you a sense of just how much they're settling in here, look at the bridge site here they've been bringing in these trailers all afternoon, this looks like they're settling in for some work space and a really robust effort here on-scene for some period of time to come. there's heavy infrastructure being brought in now for the rest cue workers and the folks on-scene, as you see behind those trailers, those shipping containers, that is the ship itself, which is now wedged under where that bridge would be, with the wreckage of the

bridge on its bow. the shipping containers there toward the stern and there you see the bridge itself jutting up into open air where the bridge, obviously, would have continued on across the river here you can see there, an aerial shot of the ship as it is just frozen in place, has been there all day. we have seen some smoke coming from the smokestack, which would indicate perhaps that the engines are on on that ship, but as of right now, no movement throughout the day here, no indication of when things might get back to normal here at the port of baltimore, melissa back over to you >> eamon, thank you. eamon javers. coming up, shares of viking therapeutics surging after promising data how it had investors licking their lets. plus, a day one pop for donald trump's new media stock how much control he'll hang onto going forward. the details, when "fast money" returns. this is "fast money" with

melissa lee. right here on cnbc at ameripl our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone.

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today of reporting encouraging phase one results of its new weight loss pill t viking is planning to initiate phase two later on this year now, remember, viking really sold off hard when novo nordisk had their investor day released their data for their oral pill, and now it's being viewed that perhaps this pill has a better profile than novo's. >> i think we brought this up three, four weeks ago, after the first huge runup we talked about, obviously, it's going to be a volatile name. but if you get a couple of buy their things right, this stock is going to be north of $89, $90. so, if you can with the stand the volatility, which will be here in spades, i mean, this is one where i think you buy, put it away, and hope you get a triple or quadruple. >> you have a little bit of viking >> i have a little bit of that and i guess my view is also, this was part of that

conversation we had three weeks ago. i think it was february 26th, 27th, and the analyst community including the one we had on that night pretty much said, i think you're going to get better data, more impressive data, on the oral side, and boom, here it is. stock didn't take out those levels, but speaking of takeouts, that's kind of the conversation we've been exploring. the viking really do this and come to market on their own? having said that, i'm sure they believe they can they did a raise at that point and i remember karen pointin out that this is a company that looks like they want to go at it themselves >> they want to give the appearance, at least i ultimately think they can, but i don't know who -- i mean, you could see an anti-trust review, maybe, if either lilly or -- >> novo. but there are plenty of others >> pfizer we talked about. tim and my pfizer. >> including the guys that gave away bio haven >> can they do another deal on top of c-gen >> i mean, they're not -- as you said, they're not the only ones. plenty of people want to get into this business

i think they need a heavy hitter, if they are in that lucky spot >> bring it to market. >> here's a question so, a few weeks ago, i saw this really great documentary called "big shot," okay, it was this whole glp sector so, if we have all these companies and we've had a lot of great ceos, analysts talk about what this tam is, it seems like it's stuck at $150 billion is that kind of correct? at some point in the next five, seven years. all these companies are doing these amazing things, but insurance right now is not paying for it, we keep doing reports, and you spent some time on this in the doc, talking about this, so, ultimately, are we going to create one investment bubble in something that i know is amazing it's not too different than generative a.i. and jpos, are we going to create an investment bubble that ultimately will not be able to realize the most, like, fabulous hopes that we have right now that's the thing that i would kind of worry about in this space. the two megatrends seem very similar to me, similar time in the market cycle also.

>> we've gone through the full cycle of who else is hit by it, we went through snack foods, sodas, medical devices, so, there's no question that that has gone on here what we also don't know is where the pricing for this drug is going to come in, not just because of competition, but because of the government. these are ultimately all use cases where the government's been very involved in the past and shb aggressive on pricing. here's what's coming up next on "fast money." a triumphant debut on the public markets, as donald trump's new media stock rockets higher in its first day of trading. how the big move could pad his pockets. ahead. plus, the haves and not haves. should you stick with this year's big winners or bet on a few comeback kids? our traders give their picks, next you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. donald trump's new media stock surging on its first day of trade. shares of trump media and technology group, tickered djt,

surging 59%, triggering a brief trading halt during the session. shares ending the day up 16% this comes as reddit has surged in its market debut, shares are up almost 9% today, nearly double the offering price in four days, and speaking of some meme stock frenzy, game stop dropping, reporting revenue of $1.79 billion, that is down 18% from a year ago. djt, that's an interesting one, it's become maybe the meme-y test of stocks >> the grand meme of them all. it really is sort of amazing, right? i think there is still a huge short interest and a huge desire to short, i checked in to see, just how much it is, they said 138% i said, wait a minute. if i were to borrow that for a year, i have no chance of making money. they're like, i guess you can look at it that way. and really, it's more of, people want to borrow on the short-term

i don't think sharesshareholder it in their accounts yet i think there's currently a lockup for djt himself, we don't know if he's going to ask the board to wave the lockup, or -- i mean, that will be -- that will be very interesting and important to the stock st. at the moment, it's untethered to any kind of metric, by their -- and they don't want to be tethered to any metric metrics are not -- >> they will not report them and may never report them ever in their history going forward. but you know, he -- supposedly wants to maintain control, so, that should be an interesting twist to the the whole thing when you go on truth social, there are a lot of users there who are shareholders who say they want to hurt the short sellers. >> okay. >> and they actually use the same term as used on amc, which is moas, mother of all short -- >> i didn't know this. >> they want to try to replicate

that >> maybe they'll be successful karen, i think it was on thursday, she outlined how it was divorce, basically, of their fundamentals, if there are fundamentals we've seen this before that can last, the trajectory upward can last for a long period of time, it can stay crazy more than you can stay solvent, and in fact, the fact -- >> i know. it's -- >> it's preposterous >> and regardless of wone's view it's so dangerous to be short this stock >> it speaks to the scarcity right now. if we think about the ipos that just came, they are astera and reddit, they lose money and they doubled and they've been gapping up higher on no news people are coming for those, they are coming for the alt coins in the crypto. that's very reminiscent of second half 2021. call it a comeback some big names are far underperforming their rallies. we'll find out what the traders are doing next. and speaking of potential

comeback, a delivery downer for fedex. can they turn themselveses into the total package? we'll debate that right after this missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly.

welcome back to "fast money. the dow falling about 30% and the nasdaq losing 0.4% all three had been up for most of the session shares of tesla charging higher, despite a price target cut from bernstein. it comes as elon musk calls for tesla employees to install and show customers how to use the company's self-driving assistance system. and apple announcing its annual developers conference kicking off june 10th. they are expected to announce their a.i. strategy. in february, ceo tim cook said apple was investing significantly in a.i., and teased an announcement later this year. and a couple of s&p index changes announced just this hour roivant sciences will be be added to the mid cap index

it replaces sunrun, which will move to the s&p 600 small caps it has been a story of haves and have nots across many sectors this year. some stocks seeing major gains while their peers have sat out the rally. we thought we'd ask the traders play a game of would you rather with some of 2024's notable leaders and laggards airbnb up 32% this year, while expedia has lost 10% so, dan, do you stick with the winner or bet on a comeback? >> i think you bet on the comeback with expedia. it's a simple trade here not anything against airbnb. this is a company expected to grow earnings 20 m% plus so, 88% gross margin, i think there's a lot of room for error here and the other one, airbnb is just kind of their expedia has the vrbo business.

they've lowered expectations a little bit for the year, but expedia looks good >> expedia's outperformed by almost 53 to 40 on a one-year basis. i just think it gets back to multiple i think airbnb is taking share, but at 30 times '24 ebitda, i think it's expensive to the group by far, not by a little bit, by a lot. >> next, masco surging 15% since january, while whirlhigh school has dropped over 7%. guy? >> well, they just -- whirlpool reported on the 29th of january. they gave ridiculous guidance. $13 to $15 for the year, far below expectations of $15.40 that's the bad news. the good news is, the stock is more than 50% from its all-time high and even if you take the low end of the guy dance, say 13 bucks for the year, it' trading at high single digits multiple and trade d down to levels it's previously held. masco has been lower level to

upper right. whirlpool is the catchup trade here >> yeah, i agree with guy there. masco is much smaller ticket items. all things, of course, both related to home building space, but i agree, they have not missed they've actually beat the last two quarters whirlpool has not, which, i -- actually, it's surprising, given what an underprom, overdeliver team this management likes to be they have good balance sheet, they pay north of 6% dividend. whirlpool. >> bank of america gaining 10% this year, but still far underperforming citigroup's near 20% gain karen? would you rather >> ah. well, i guess bank of america, but i'm reluctant, just given the run citigroup has. i would pick jpmorgan. i know -- >> wait a second >> hold on a second. would you rather rather? >> it's a rather rather. >> that's completely outside the realm of this particular game. i will not allow that.

>> it just happened. >> it's too late >> jamie dimon is watching in his office >> tim >> horse out of the barn >> bac or citi >> citi. i own citi i also own bac, and i've watched them both have a very strong run, but the city run is, i think, based on more fundamentals than bac is getting pulled up with the money center banks. the more benign environment for credit, more benign regulatory environment. i believe in that year of efficiency at citi bank. >> let's move to autos general motors firing on all cylinders, gaining 22%, compared to 2% for ford on the year so, guy, would you rather? >> you know, you would think i'd say ford because they seemingly trade together, and gm's outperformed, but seems that gm has figured it out, while ford is still struggling. and gm is within a whisper of breaking out of this range we've been in. you get through this 45 level, we haven't seen it since three, four years ago, so, gm in this

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welcome back u.p.s. delivering a big loss today. the stock down 8%, its wirs day since january. the day coming after the company laid out a three-day forecast. the ceo spoke to mar cnbc >> we did see volume leave us during the contract negotiation, and more than we expected, candidly, but we have brought 60% of the volume that diverted back into our network, and it's not just about winning back, it's about winning new we do believe that volume will be down in the first half of this year, but we expect it to return to growth in the back half of the year >> analysts on the street were skeptical of the forecast, some of it calling aspirational never a good description of a forecast a company gives tim, what did you make of this >> this could have been part of

that pairs trade segment we just did, but that's exactly it the questions are, can they get those numbers, including 108 to 114 billion in revenue by 2026, saying they're going to grow top line 2.5% in '24 and it at least suggests that there's going to be acquisitions in there, which the market doesn't always want to hear about, so, i think u.p.s. is due for a comeback, even without guy lacing up the brown. >> yeah. they spoke about health care, they talked about the growth in health care and a couple of acquisitions in terms of transporting cold things from the clinical, you know, from the labs to different places and mentioned acquisition potentially in health care specifically >> right, i think that was part of the revenue, you know, $6 billion of that $114, which might have been the midpoint nothing wrong with those numbers, people are skeptical of them and very unfortunately, they came out with the bad start to this year, so, already that's not good, and they've missed their last one --

>> last forecast, yes. >> yes, so, that's not good, and so, this is, instead of underpromise overdeliver, underpromise and then lower deliver -- >> deliver, no pun intended. >> exactly >> and for carol tome who is a great ceo, it's been a very rough patch, and disappointing >> been outreach, to me, recently >> get you back on the force >> it's not going to happen, but listen, at least they tried. but it just makes the fedex numbers that we heard that much better, if you put it into context. i don't think it's surprising that fedex was up today in a pretty significant way on top of the move we saw a couple weeks ago. coming up, the grass is getting greener in germany how the company's new cannabis legalization will impact pot stocks the executive chairman of a top cannabis company will join us next to lay it out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us.

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by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. her uncle's unhappy. join t i'm sensing anpeople takiunderlying issue.vacy it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. welcome back to "fast money. germany is the latest country to legalize pot for recreational use. in just a few days, adults will be able to carry up to 25 grams of weed in public. 50 grams for private use individuals can grow up to three plants for consumption the law will decriminalize and reclassify the drug as a

nonnarcotic. let's bring in boris jordan to discuss this opportunity boris, good to see you >> thank you, melissa. good to be here. >> some estimates are that the german market could surpass $500 million by 2027. could you put it into perspective for us in terms of comparing that to the size of various markets here in the u.s. >> yeah, i think the closest thing to compare it to is the florida market, medical market, because it's a very similar piece of legislation if you look at florida, florida has 4% penetration of their population of about 25 million people, that's about a $2.5 billion market today so, the numbers actually is much, much higher. it's closer to a $10 billion market in germany, because of their 83 million people, versus florida's 25 million now, we don't expect that to happen overnight, these things take awhile to ramp, but we do expect that the market should triple up probably in the next 12 to 18 months, and then we'll continue to see growth after that

>> boris, it's tim you've made significant investment in europe, in fact, i think really much unlike your peers, i should say, in the u.s. headline like we've had today and in germany in the past, what a move your stock, 15%, 20%, with the whole industry. how do you explain the somewhat muted reaction to this we're getting incremental news in the cannabis space, i run a cannabis etf, your company is a core position. it seems as if the market is somewhat, eh, you know thoughts >> i think there's a misunderstanding, first of all -- let's be honest, the bulk of the investors in the u.s. msos today still are retail investors, right large scale institutions have not yet invested we've only recently, since we've uplisted to tsx and now mainstream custodians with our stock, we've only recently start ed marketing to the capitals of the world.

they haven't invested in the market at this point in time, at least in the u.s. stocks, so, i think we've really driven by retail retail, through robinhood, for instance, doesn't have access to foreign stocks so, you have to be a retail investor in fidelity or at one of these other brokers to actually invest in this particular space, and i think that's one of the reasons. there's a lack of education. and a lot of u.s. investors don't really know the european market we invested three years ago, we probably put in $400 million between the acquisition, we have the largest footprint, we today have the largest vertical business in europe, selling in germany, the uk, and in poland we have a 23% share in germany so, you can just imagine, obviously, we don't anticipate holding that kind of share forever, but with a market that's going to be a multibillion dollar market over the next, you know, two to three years, we really hope to maintain a very large share and we think we're going to be the biggest beneficiary, at least from the north american companies, in germany. >> do other countries follow

germany? >> oh, i think the way germany goes, europe goes. i saw the same type of thing in the data center business germany typically leads the regulatory reform and other countries follow suit. we're already seeing the czech republic and poland follow suit on germany, very similar piece of legislation interestingly enough, ukraine also making a similar decision to those other two countries and we think that france has got a pilot program going is probably next in line to move in that direction you know, the uk has a very strong medical program already, so, yes, we do think other countries will head in that direction. >> just curious, boris, are the margins better in europe than in the u.s. or other places >> it's difficult to tell at this point in time at the moment, they're smaller, only because the industry is still smaller and there's not enough scale but we've now built the in infrastructure for the scale, so, as the business starts to grow, we do anticipate that general margins are going to be

25%. >> boris, thank you. nice to see you. >> thank you up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade tim? >> i think there's decent fundamental momentum in the auto space, but ford, i'm also long gm, ford motor company >> karen >> yes, i think, you know, the bubbly situation we're in, a lot of ipos, a lot of investment banking to do. i like morgan stanley. >> dan >> yeah, expedia >> guy >> few blocks south of here and west -- >> yes >> world's most famous arena

>> yes >> and chance to clinch a playoff berth, and mel said, really >> just the beginning. >> he said, we have bigger fish to fry she's so spot on >> i try >> pinterest gets caught up in this wave, as well >> all right, thank you for watching "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. i'm just trying to save you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to put everything in context so call me.