developed with vets. made from real meat and veggies. portioned for your dog. and delivered right to your door. it's smarter, healthier pet food. good afternoon and welcome to power lunch. glad you can join us on this monday. california's new minimum wage law takes effect today, $20 an hour and we will talk to the ceo of raising cane's which has nearly 100 locations in the state about the real impact of this wage hike. the inflation data and

subsequent comments reading markets to believe that the fed will cut rates later rather than sooner. on this first day of the second quarter, dow jones industrial average, s&p down about a third of a percent. nasdaq is down marginally. s&p was up by 10% in the first quarter so it may not take much to convince investors to take some of those profits. mike, how much of this is seasonality when you turn about -- talk about the turning of the corner? >> there is a little bit of an unwind based on some very end of quarter action yesterday. i do think it is a market that has earned arrest, not just up 10% and the s&p in the quarter but in a steady fashion of five months, to straight up quarters, you can look at these things that have happened historically after similar periods and it all nets out in

a similar place which is longer- term upturn, probably not the ultimate peak, but you ought to expect a little bit of a giveback. the other thing i mentioned is the yield move up today to 4.3. strong economic data and this thing about the fed. so it is a natural place to locate some of the selling because the downside of the drivers in the dow, home depot and goldman sachs. >> what we will hear endlessly is that cell in april, and in may. >> pull that apart from the single cycle handicapping, in other words, broadly speaking the best returns are in the six months from november through april. that is the way it has gone for many decades. however, i always say that is

climate and it's not the weather. we should have had pullbacks for example in late february based on all the seasonal highs and we didn't get one. april has been a very strong month and maybe we will get some turbulence around tax deadlines. to me it is about, does the economy hold up and will he be poised to cut into a record stock high or not. >> was there in inflation number that came out late last month? the market didn't really have a chance to react until today. >> i think the number itself was good enough, it did not show a continued acceleration of inflation but this morning the manufacturing numbers came out and it seems that there are parts of the economy that are reawakening at a time when nobody is convinced that inflation is coming up.

the point is, there is a reason to be concerned if you are inclined to think inflation will be stubborn at these levels. that's why the market is kind of pulling out that possibility . >> stick around as we bring in our next guest who says the market still has strong support from solid growth but wouldn't be surprised to see a pickup, the w cio and richard bernstein, advisers, how do you explain today's action in the market? is it a little bit of a reaction to the inflation number last week, maybe to the isn number today and a little bit to the fact that we've had back-to- back excellent quarters and maybe it is time for a little breather, what is it? >> i think everything mike said was spot on. the market is trying to balance the two sides of the growing coin. on one hand, growth is coming in hot and strong and the market likes that and it bodes

well for this coming earnings season and earning seasons to come. but as mike also alluded to, you are seeing a lot of stickiness in inflation numbers and in the pc number we got last week and the report we got this morning and remember that inflation lags growth. and so if the growth numbers continue to come in hot and you continue to see that due to inflation, at some point you do have to worry that it does not only come with good reaction but a negative reaction given what the response is of the fed >> the market isn't discount for future profits. walk us through that. >> listen, tons of people come on your show and proclaimed they can see exactly what the world will look like in a year, and i have yet to meet anybody who is really good at that, in predicting the future that far

out. the next prediction is looking for the signs that growth is rolling over and inflecting and the reality is that we have not seen the signs. the growth continues to show signs of not only resilience but actual acceleration including today's isn report. underlying the surface of everything, ernest growth will continue to accelerate. the drivers of that earnings growth may shift in terms of the mix but while it continues to improve over the next one, two or three quarters that is a good time to be in the market and it provides that strong support. >> six minutes into the show and we have not talked about the magnificent seven yet. let's do it now. how important is all of this in the market where we stand now? >> they've grown a little less important over the last month. the big question going into march was can the market not

rely on those handful of stocks, while tech, underperformed in march in general, microsoft hung in there, apple is still awake today, and the market has held up why, a lot of stocks are still getting back losses from 2022. regional banks started to act better but the question is can we have this magical perfect rotation indefinitely or is it that at some point we will fumble the baton and handed over to another sector. that is the bigger question. so far i don't think you can completely have the ai story go cold, but for now it is good enough. >> i think the wall street journal said the magnificent seven has now become the fab four. what is your reaction to that? is it a good thing that maybe we are not as dependent as the

market was on seven stocks alone to pull it forward? >> 100%. it is extremely bullish that you are seeing the breadth of this market really out, you've never had a sustainable market that was incredibly narrow throughout the full period. i think it is a necessary requirement to see it brought in and out and the reason behind it broadening out is that their earnings is really broadening out and that is the key inflection point going forward. the magnificent 7 while continuing to be very strong from an absolute growth level, those growth numbers are said to decelerate in the company quarters where as the rest of the market will be driving the further earnings gains from here. >> think you very much, great to have you with us. that fear of race is not coming down anytime soon and also being reflected in the

bottom market today. in chicago, taking us more in depth >> that is a good way to put it, and a couple of good reasons. here is the good, the isn manufacturing headline breaks a string of 16 consecutive months under 50 to come up with the best number, 50.3, since 2022. you rather have it go down but as you see, the highest levels since july of 2022 and finally, the ugly, the employment index, six in a row under 50 and 11 of the last 14 under 50. and if that was stock chart you probably would not be looking to buy it. having said that, last year nine out of 12 months were under 50 and the job market was pretty good. how much can we really glean from these? and what did it do to the

markets? 20s and 30s on one chart, 10:00 eastern you can clearly see these numbers said the selloff. but it was already afoot, why? every analyst i read all we can, the numbers were pretty much as expected. i was there at 8:30 eastern on friday and the numbers did not make any progress on inflation through the fed's favorite and it certainly does demonstrate that there is a definite rorschach going on when it comes to the feds still underscoring not seeing a problem. and all of these issues with rates, two week high close, dollar index, you guessed it, solid as a rock, trading above 105 and on pace for a 4.5 month close. >> coming up, a power call on some footwear stocks.

what is getting bullish on some survey results. plus, california raising the minimum wage for fast food workers. we will talk to the ceo of one chain that will be affected. power lunch will be right back.

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to save up to $830 off an eligible 5g phone when you switch to comcast business mobile. don't wait! call, click or visit an xfinity store today. welcome back. the second quarter is officially underway and berkeley is taking a big step in expanding in the footwear apparel space. crocs, sketchers, deckers and on holding with e stock. here with us now is the author of that note, the managing director and consumer discretionary analyst at berkeley. wonderful to have you with us. i guess when you've got four stocks here, let's start with

crocs, why are you so compelled when you look at a name like crocs. i think of so many of us look at them as a fashion fad that has not faded. >> yes, what i'd say about the four that we initiated on, the footwear space is unique in that it allows for a lot of weight space, so if you have a compelling band and loyalty across different demographics you can continue to succeed. what we like about crocs is that they command the highest product margins as one can imagine, 70% versus the sector at 50-60%. and operating margins, once they get that leverage on the model they are printing north of 25% operating margins, which is far and away like 1000 base points, 10 points above others. >> when it comes to some of these aims, they operate in

slightly different subsectors but nike has been this mega brand for so many years. we know they have their individual stumbles, or any of these names partial beneficiaries of nike working out its own problems? >> you hit the nail on the head. if we look at the horizon from 2016 to 2022, globally as well as adidas have given up 4% from making about 3.5% from adidas. so that opens up a ton of oxygen in the room for these brands as well as a bunch of other running specialty speaker brands. what we've heard from nike self admittedly is that they didn't really do a good job on closing the door over the past 2 to 3 years and blocking out some of these innovative competitors. and i think we have also heard on the last call from nike that it will take some time for them to retrench.

franchise management and will hold back on selling products into the market. again, it takes about 15 months to two years to build this innovation pipeline back and it will leave some room >> i think of these brands, whether it is crocs, uggs or even sketchers, i think of them as nietzsche -- nitchy. maybe they should not take on nike, because who can? if they play their niche really well, maybe it could mean rich. >> i think you are spot on with the notion that each of these as a technology and loyal following and brand differentiator that at their

side can last them for years. we like to think of these brands as the term of adoption. and they are there best and strongest when they go from late early adoption to mass adoption. that runway that has low brand awareness in high brand desirability can propel these brands for years. we saw this back in the early 2000's when you would see up to 70 runs on these brands. so you are correct, they need to stick to their technology and play their own game in an area where the they still have smaller competitors and they could double in size pretty easily with not a lot of, in terms of taking a ton of share from incumbents. >> i continue to be fascinated by the imbalance -- idea of directive idea and wholesale because it offers marketing

opportunities. a consumer goes in thinking they were nike but they see a new shoe and maybe they want to try that out. in your notes you talk about more opportunities through the direct to consumer channel. nike say maybe we need to refocus on the wholesale relationship. so where is the opportunity and how do you find that balance, do you go direct to consumer, how do you find the balance? >> when you are low brand awareness, the greatest propellant is to go wholesale. that is how you become discovered. we did a proprietary survey and the brand awareness for owen and was 8% and was 22% for hokah. so in order to get known and

recognized among the consumer landscape, the fastest way is to go through a wholesale like dick's sporting goods . so you are put side-by-side for trial. and that is great. having said that, once you get to the notion of, i am aware of the product, then you want to take back that control of the branding, promotion holiday, the innovation pipeline and you don't have as much of that control in the wholesale channel . so if you want to control the message, there is a fine balance between going dtc and wholesale in tandem and there is a fine line and people straddle it right now. i would say in the early stages. >> quick answer if i might, with the exception of sketchers who has an endorser in howie long, i think of these companies as going low on advertising and endorsements

compared with adidas or even under armour or nike. am i right on that and how have they done it in the absence of big advertising budgets and endorsements? >> it is interesting because there is a bucket called demand creation which we would know is advertising and promotion. within that bucket our personality endorsements. i would say that each of the running brands, for sure have personalities, particularly in the running segment. it is possible you may just not recognize them as well as essay, sketchers, so to the extent that these companies are investing anywhere between 7% and 10% or 11%, that is kind of status quo. >> thank you very much. still to come, it has been one year since the boycott that hit bud light specifically and

where does the stock stand now and how does it approach branding? that's next. i don't know iyof u heard that, but we did.

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welcome back. shares of embedded have not fully recovered following a controversy following its partnership with the transgender influencer. brandon gomez joins us with more on an eventful year for the company. >> the road to recovery still continues. reported sales being done as much is 28% in the months following that partnership. showing that bud light lost its number one spot to modelo and consumers also turned to cores. ab inbev is still down about 18% since that time, molson is up 30%. bud was able to stabilize, investing in ome strategic partnerships.

but, bud light still hasn't been able to fully recover. the latest data shows that market share remains down 4.8% and the company spokesperson torque -- talk to me over the weekend and said bud light remains the number one beer in volume sales, and is improving off premise and the company has been on a "positive market share trajectory over the last seven months." in a recent note the company recovery appears to have stalled for now but they do maintain a rating, citing the portfolio from last quarter. so, it has been a long year for bud light, but perhaps there is some light at the end of the tunnel for anheuser-busch. >> the simple question is, have people forgotten what got them into hot water in the first place? >> i don't know that it is a forgotten case, bud light and anheuser-busch has been strategic about relationships moving forward.

the demographic felt alienated but then, now they are investing in country music stars and have a partnership with ufc and the olympics. i feel like they are trying to have more and more partnerships with what the demographic was pre-controversy. >> i wonder if some of those investments ring a little hollow with the core constituents that go, oh, you got in trouble so now you are coming back into a more mainstream group of endorsements. >> and you see that post from trump saying, you know, let's give them a second chance. even if that kind of endorsement isn't enough to get the core demographic back to the brand, what will it take? >> this fascinates me. can we really attribute all the sales declined to this incident? >> it was happening before the boycott incident happened.

the market share shift to modelo was already happening but this may have expedited the process. you can talk about even broader consumer trends where people are turning away from beer and going to ready to drink cocktails. it could all be attributed to this one moment, no, not necessarily what it definitely was a catalyst >> i watch a lot of sports, i know that you do too. modelo's advertising is very effective, it stands out . i can't put my finger on the theme but the sort of vignettes of people that are artists, barbers or entrepreneurs. it is very effective and catchy. i guess they've done very well with that. we appreciate it. let's get over to leslie with our news update. >> the white house said this afternoon that it is aware of reports of an israeli airstrike on the irani consulate. spokesperson says the president

has a team looking into the claims meanwhile iranian officials said on state media channels that the country reserves the right to take reciprocal actions against israel. the top revolutionary guards commander in several diplomats are among those reported dead. an expert panel appointed by the faa said that the agency should stop requiring pilots to disclose if they are in talk therapy. the panel said the current rules help avoidance and creates barriers to mental health issues. they are reviewing the recommendations. u.s. traffic deaths likely fell about 3.5% in 2023 even as people spent more time behind the wheel. even with the progress the statistic is still higher than it was pre-pandemic. the federal highway safety regulators are urging people to put down those phones and avoid other distractions while driving. >> very good advice.

something i often harp on people about. california's minimum wage high, beginning today and workers are using it as a backdoor to organize without forming a union. after the break we will talk to a co-ceo of raising cane's, a private fast food chain that was planning to open 20 new california locations this year.

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a new minimum wage going into effect in california for fast food workers, $20 an hour. but with money and politics things are never quite that simple. katelyn rogers joining us is explain who is covered by this. >> it will be among the highest in the nation and ripple effects are sure to be felt for all parties involved. right now glassdoor data showed that just over 20% of california fast food workers are making $20 an hour and many more will get a pay raise. it targets fast food chains with 60+ locations nationwide and more than half 1 million workers in the sector. there are exceptions for

bakeries that make bread on site, restaurants in airports, museums, hotels and event centers. mary kate henry told the focus -- cnbc that the focus was on fast food and it is among the most meaningful development since pfeiffer 15 began a decade ago. >> it has taken us 10 years to get to this table and they feel like they will have a voice on the job that they have never been able to experience before. >> business advocates say this will have both ripple effects and unintended consequences for workers and businesses alike. saying that "these are small businesses that are facing down mandated higher costs that will get passed on to the customer and likely result in fewer jobs." that is the president and ceo of the international franchise association. they were involved in the negotiations as well. a lot of back and forth on how this will play out in his

certainly something to watch over the next year. >> california is a big state with a lot of companies, any publicly traded chains being affected that you've been able to identify it yet? i know the pay data is not always super transparent. i know you said 20% are already making this wage. 80% are not. >> if you think about companies with a large footprint, mcdonald's, chipotle, jack-in- the-box, starbucks, and it also depends on how the chains are operated. starbucks for example, they are company-owned locations that will have to comply, chipotle, the same thing. mcdonald's, those are run by franchisees. so they wind up deciding how much they will raise prices but it also could wind up impacting larger companies as well. because if they do pull back for summer projecting that will wind up hitting the bottom line of some of these companies but on the other hand these workers will have more money to spend.

this has been the low income consumer pulling back. so this may wind up boosting business for some companies that ave experienced that. we look to seattle for example, they raised to $15 years ago, and there is support for both sides of the argument. >> raising cane's is among the many restaurants being impacted by the minimum wage hike in california. the chicken finger chain has 87 locations across california and plans to open an additional 20. let's bring in the raising cane's co-ceo and chief operating officer. so what will this age hike mean to you and the prices that customers may have to pay? >> honestly we've always been about the minimum wage and believe in doing the right thing by our crew members and having a great place to work with benefits and wages.

we are above the $16 that is minimum today. now we have to go to $20 and we obviously have to go above that. what we don't want to do is compromise the quality of training we provide, the benefits that comes with it, the quality of food, any of it. which means that our average will be closer to $22 or $23. >> so you can retain the workers and won't have exact parity with the others. you will keep that edge. >> right. crew members work hard to train themselves on additional jobs, they've earned that gap versus the other crew members if they want to continue giving up. so looking at about $23. and honestly we are happy to give that to our crew members. always happy to provide better pay and better benefits. unfortunately, razor thin

margins, we have 50 more restaurants in the next 24 months or so that we have to open. we want to create those opportunities for crew members, the new ones joining, and all of that. we will be taking a small price increase, somewhere about 7%. that is what other companies are doing as well. that will be isolated to california. honestly, it gives me a knot in my stomach, i really don't like doing it. we want to provide great value to customers day in and day out. it is not our choice but to protect the margins, not even all the way through, so we can continue growing and be the fastest growing company owned a system out there, so that will be just for california. >> 60 something consecutive quarters have seen sales growth? >> yes, sir. more than 15 years of restaurant sales growth, that

is what we have maintained. >> what if your workers are making more money and others are as well, do you anticipate any kind of sale potential benefit from people having more disposable income to buy more chicken fingers? >> we have always tried to stay consistent and do one thing better than anyone else, so we focus on the everyday value, we don't do limited time offers, we do five things, chicken fingers, fries, toast and coleslaw, and we do it really well. our customers come to us for everyday value and they are pretty regular and loyal. we are very cut with the way we price and i do not anticipate any kind of decline in customer traffic because if they are eating they will find us as a great value. will there be an increase in that, i don't know. i think the better place will

rise to the top. >> boy, that looks good. so, a lot of fast food restaurants, i assume, are trying to cut staff, automating, using artificial intelligence and kiosks, are you doing that or are you maintaining your store by store account or maybe even increasing? >> we are not. we actually have some of the largest number of crew members per restaurant. we have over 10,000 crew members in california spread over 90 restaurants. the reason is, we also want them to have a great workplace. we don't want them to be working long hours, et cetera, so no, we are not automating or changing the benefit plans. we are not changing anything we do with our food, none of that. we will stay on the path, we really like the product we are

serving, the service model and a smiling crew member that serves you. we are not going to change any of it. >> fast food service in general is a tough job, so that's good. i'm glad you're thinking of the employees and the long hours. thank you for joining us. keep us updated on how it goes. i'm very interested to see if you and up with more sales from individuals. let's hope so. powering ai is helping fuel the massive energy needed for artificial intelligence projects. we will assess that and more when power lunch returns, we will be right back.

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insurance. the nasdaq 100 is up 67% since the beginning of last year since the ai grade has boosted stocks like nvidia. there may be an opportunity in energy names to meet the ai power demands.

so where is the opportunity? >> a whole lot of power is needed, the electricity demand could more than double in the next two years, meaning data centers would consume as much power as all of japan. renewable production just can't keep up with that kind of growth, meaning the guesstimate could also rise using drillers like her tara but after you get the gas out of the ground you've also got to move it. so think pipelines, it is hard to build a pipeline quickly, so companies with pipes already in the grand could have added value. and you will need to keep the data center up and running 24 seven so companies that make generators, cooling equipment and other systems could be winners like companies hike in, that is where they come in.

they were cold and often overlooked data center operation, meaning there has been meaningful uptake in mentioning data centers and of course everyone wants to get in on the momentum, that there really is a big power story. >> absolutely, you need to so much power to be able to do everything you need to do with all of this crypto and ai. it worries me actually. >> thank you. coming up, the comeback kids, highlighting some underperforming stocks that wall street says are poised to to rally. we will get some insight on the three of them. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network.

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some three stock launches are off to a hot start. cnbc looked at stocks that could be due for a turnaround. we took a look at three of them that are down this year but have roamed into the average analyst target.

up first, courtney, match group shares down 1% so far this year, your trade on match, do we strike a match? >> we do. i would be a buyer, i don't her. they have some really popular platforms, tinder being their main one, which is the reason largely shares have been under pressure. they had some increase in prices which meant less users for tinder, but you're seeing growing revenue and popularity in hinge. that's not just growing here in the u.s. they're starting to push into european markets, let alone when you look at asia. that is in a hugely untapped growth over there. when you look at the demographics, there's just such an addressable market there that hasn't been tapped into, and i think that's really going to be their longer-term growth story is when you look not just here in the u.s. but abroad, and it trades an attractive valuation, about 28 times forward earnings. it's only trading about 12 times earnings currently, so i think for all those reasons, i would

swipe right on match. >> i was going to say that but i can't remember if it's right or left or what the right way is. up next, courtney, let's talk about caesar's. the average price target suggests a nearly 37% rally in sell-side analysts are correct. what's your take on caesar's? >> i would stay on the sidelines of caesar's. i like a lot of the casino operators, but when you're looking at gaming demand, a lot of that is much more abroad than it is here in the u.s., specifically macao and singapore. and some of your other casino operators do have that exposure. caesar's doesn't. they also did have a recent merger with el dorado, which i think longer term is going to be a benefit for them, but what happened is they had to take on a lot of debt for that, so although they do have good operating margins, a majority that is going just to pay off interest payments, which is likely to weigh on their shares for a little while there. >> all right. courtney garcia, let's go to the last one of the day, and that is

united health, unh. >> united health, i would be a buyer on here. this also has been under pressure this year, like the other three. most recently, they did have that cyberattack, which put pressure on them and the entire health care sector, which hopefully they're starting to get under wraps here. i don't to discount the fact that that is going to be a short-term issue here. we have no idea how it's going to affect their margins. they've already had to pay out to service providers who were affected, but longer term and bigger picture, they are the biggest medicare advantage provider, and as you're look at demographics in the united states, you have over 10,000 baby boomers every day hitting age 65. that is going to continue to benefit them, and their shares trade at about 17 times forward earnings, which is still lower than their historical averages. >> court ney garcia, we appreciate it. for more on stocks, go to cnbc.com/propick. that's where you'll find them. coming up, the impact of

clark-onomics. caitlin clark and the iowa hawkeyes set to take on the basketball star's last college game. we'll break down the impact she's had on and off the court when "power lunch" returns.

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there are two women's college basketball games tonight, one in portland, oregon, and one in albany, new york, and portland, you can get a nose-bleed seat for about ten bucks. in albany, even the worst seats are going for $125, not including fees. that's because caitlin clark and iowa are taking on lsu in a rematch of last year's title game, and that's just a small example of the economic impact caitlin clark is having. here with more is the business analytics professor at the university of iowa. two of my sisters-in-law went there. she's been really fun to watch,

stl athleticism and skill. what has she brought to iowa or the university because of all the attention she's gotten for, frankly, her skill as a women's basketball player? i mean, what's the value of her? >> well, i focus on two basic measures and that's just attendance and ticket price. if you just look at those two things, and ignore even merchandise sales, spending on restaurants and concessions and lodging, you're already at an unbelievable number. for instance, if you look, before caitlin, attendance was around 5,000. since then, she's sold out every game this year, so it's an increase of about 10,000 pickets per game. the average ticket price has gone up, say, roughly $100, so that right there is looking at a million dollars per game. so, if you take that times 14 home games, that's $14 million, and that's not even considering anything else. >> can you put a number -- a guesstimate on the total economic impact of caitlin clark? the clark effect?

>> oh, i don't think you can actually -- i couldn't put a number on. i've seen other studies that are somewhere between $14 million to $52 million, and i would say that's probably underestimating it, because when it's all said and done, i think after the lag and you could see macroeconomic data, it won't surprise me if an estimate might be close to $100 million. >> there's a report released and they are saying clarkonomics has increased state and consumer spending. if you are at the university of iowa, you are an employee there, how do you continue to capitalize on the caitlin clark effect if this does end up being her last game as a college athlete for the university? can the team continue this intrigue with the broader country going forward? >> well, yeah, caitlin is going to move on to the wnba and do great things there, but iowa will always be part of caitlin,

so just because she'll move on, i don't think you're going to see a dropoff in attention that women's basketball and women's sports in general that iowa get. iowa has a longstanding tradition of supporting women's athletics. we might not be the caitlin clark craze, but i think you'll see appreciation of the great women athletes we have here. >> very quickly, iowa, the university and the state, have done well. women's basketball has done well. how has caitlin herself done? how much money has she made through n.i.l.s or other means? >> interestly enough, there's no money coming from the university collective, but she has definitely garnered millions of dollars from private deals with, gatorade and nike. >> and those deals will only multiply, couone can assume, wh she is the first pick in the wnba draft later this month. jeff ohlman, good luck to iowa

tonight. >> go, hawkeyes. i'm going to say it. i can't believe it. >> that was interesting. i'll be watching tonight. >> absolutely. >> it will be a very interesting game. >> she's very compelling to watch and awesome for women's sports. >> playing the defending champs, who are very good. very tough. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. "closing bell" starts right now. >> all right, guys, thank you so much. welcome to "closing bell," i'm scott wapner live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with the rally and the risks to your money. earnings season, soon to heat up, and that will likely hold the cards for stocks in the near term. we're going to ask our experts over this final stretch whether they'll live up to the hype. in the meedium, take a look at your scorecard. some pretty good economic data this morning. that sent yields higher, pushed stocks down. that's where they are right now. there's the ten-year, 4.33%. the nasdaq's been trying to make a move all day as microsoft, meta, and alphabet rise. elsewhere, really only energy doin