would think, you have to scan your ab enter.>> you take it off the shelf, pay for it and walk out? >> yes.>> good stuff. thank you so much for watching, have a good one. [ music ] >> hello, and welcome to closing bell. this make or break our starts with stocks gaining some traction. another round of steady economy on the service sector, and the fed chair reiterating a patient stance on rate cuts, with more confidence that inflation is in retreat. the s&p 500 is up modestly, less than a quarter of a percent. the index is now sitting right

at the spot where it closed the day of the last fed decision exactly 2 weeks ago. tech bouncing back a bit today, it is up by about a third of a percent, with apple and tesla on those weaker stocks. energy continues to outperform the broader market, as the verdict still seems to be pretty solid. warren pies will weigh in on whether or not this run can continue. and we see the top of the four month range, the 10 year at 435. is this indecisive start yet another fleeting pause on the way higher? or is this the start of the first proper pullback in five

months? good to see you. >> thank you for having me.>> some of the sentiments look a little elevated, is the market listening? >> it feels like it is screaming a little bit louder this week. it has been kind of fussing a bit for the last few months. i think time will tell. i do want to see how markets react. i wonder if we are seeing a little angst in the run-up to the report. by and large, what i think is interesting is that it is not a defensive underbelly to the market. materials are doing well, energy, industrial, tech is bouncing back a little bit. the small caps, nobody really seems to notice that, it bottomed out in early february. this is a market that is still trying to rotate, there is still some angst, but it is a

different set up from back in august. we thought we were going to be in economic purgatory forever. we will see, there is good and bad out there.>> we will see, for sure. to your point, it's really active debate, what it's going to mean, we have some comments on that from david, from greenlight capital, and steve cohen as well. >> how many times are they going to cut this year? >> fewer than are priced in right now. >> fewer than three? >> sure. do you think there's a chance they don't do anything?>> there is a chance. inflation is accelerating, there is a lot of inflation indication.>> i don't disagree with that, i think inflation has been somewhat contained, but ultimately what it will come down to is whether or not

that is a true statement. the fed thinks it's eventually going to come down to a 2% inflation rate. i think that's going to be hard.>> that pretty much sums up where the front lines of this debate are. i go in sequence. what is the fed inclined to do? is it doing it for good or bad reasons? how much does it matter for the market? >> the reasons matter. i think the fed is being patient. that's what i keep hearing them say, and we want them to be patient. they were given a lot of grief for going too fast with hikes. doesn't the market want inflation to be contained? if they were not being patient, i think they would be beaten up for that. they are watching the data come in just like everyone else, they are being transparent and honest right now, and if inflation is getting out of hand, holding back is probably the right decision.>> we heard

some comments reiterating more or less that they think that the inflation trend is probably still in effect, what do you think? you have that difference of opinion, we've seen this flare in inflation, but at the same time we are seeing some services still look positive. are we just seeing another shift from services back into goods? is it muddying the picture?>> i think the picture is getting a little muddier. our team was looking at five cuts at the end of the year, they've dialed that down to three. you are starting some - - you are starting to see some pressure on the good side. that's a little different from what we have expected. i'm going to be really curious to see what companies are saying in the next reporting season. it felt like the last one took forever. i wasn't totally shocked by some of these inflation prints, just on the basis that i was hearing company still complain

a lot about costs in real time, and really begrudgingly loosing their group grip on the pricing element. you can sort of see seeds of ongoing inflationary pressure incorporate comments. it will be interesting to see boots on the ground in the coming weeks.>> to this point, we have the economy again, a surprising upside to the start of the year forecast. it seems like it is holding together. i am alert for the idea that we also are maybe looking at some head fakes here. is the economic picture supportive of the consensus of earnings?>> the consensus numbers are a little ahead of my numbers. i met 237, consensus is at 243. that's more about market expansion and demand because of cost pressures. i think it is really about revenue expectations. the revenue back.- - the

revenue backdrop is fine, but this was spooking me a little bit. if you look historically to gdp, it's a strong environment, up by 12% on average. the strongest year was up 34%, which shows you how out of hands things could get.>> you have to dial back the rate of appreciation from the first quarter to only have 34%. who knows where it can go from here. let's bring in peter. peter. it's good to see you. the economy might be starting to show a little bit more fatigue. i guess you can slice in different ways on the consumer side. how are you viewing it?>> there is something for everybody in the data as of late. look at the high frequency data from my surveys.

there have been signs of weakness in employment, services and manufacturing, it has been lower. that has not led through the hard data from initial claims, continuing claims, payroll, and in terms of the go forward for risk assets, it's about the fed at this point. i think the cenario that is interesting to contemplate is one in which the fed has to stay on hold, because there is just enough evidence that inflation is percolating again, and the economy starts to really slow in the second half of the year, something that i think history has to suggest has to happen, and you know, a number of other financial condition factors, equity markets have been a self- fulfilling prophecy. they are keeping financial

condition so loose. it is a little bit of a circular argument here, that frankly the economy depends more on the market than the market on the economy, but my concern is that it's on hold for the first half, and it was forced to cut aggressively in the second half of the year. the economy actually is slowing.>> if we get past june or july, it may be one of the longest pauses the fed has ever had at epic rate. it seems like the pressure internally and externally will grow to do something. and what we re seeing right now is the exact inverse of the post-global financial crisis. everyone thought rates were going to normalize. we waited the entire year for one cut in december as growth slowed, and inflation was zero.

they wanted to get the hike in there, they wanted to say look, we are in a different regime, we are off of zero. there is just an institutional impetus to get a cut in there one way or another.>> that is interesting, this sort of mirror image, disinflation versus inflation. at the end of the day, what has been reframing that sort of purgatory we felt in august was this pivot that happened in november. we saw that in the december meeting. it really loosened financial conditions quite a bit, and the price we are paying is higher inflation, it wasn't all supply- side. one of the things we have to recognize here is that we are still running a 6% deficit in gdp, that is unprecedented in the full employment

environment, with ism for the most part above 50. the history in that environment, the fed has done nothing. it has not cut. i think it's going to be very hard to cut, but the impetus for markets to harder, it's no longer favorable for equities. it just doesn't make for very good risk and reward.>> on the evaluation point, i know you try to come at this from different angles in terms of fair value for the market. even if you take away the magnificent seven stocks, the rest of the market is not exactly cheap.>> if we parse out the top 10 names in the s&p versus the rest of the market, you have the median forward pe, the preferred measure for a lot of people. you are around 16 times on the

market, it is still well below peak. a lot of people think the market deserves to trade at a 16 times multiple. to me, that tells me that there is not a pervasive valuation problem, even those are justified based on the earnings growth we are seeing. speaking more broadly, we try to guess where the multiple should be on a trailing basis, given where inflation and interest rates are excited to be, i went through the math last week, before the holidays, i tried to be fair about the numbers, but i come to the conclusion that we are pretty much where we are supposed to be.>> 5300 there, down a couple percent, up from here, within it, there is a chance to have somewhat better returns, and maybe there is some risk.>> if you take the consensus numbers,

the consensus is usually right by midyear, so we can stop fighting about this in a couple months. that can get you well north of 5400. look, it's a compass, not a gps, it is pointing you the right direction. but we should look into that low 20 multiples.>> it seems like history would say that's where it can go, if not where it will go. lori, peter, it was great to talk to you today, thank you for your time. we are also keeping our eyes on disney shares. they released a statement, saying "while we are disappointed with the outcome of this proxy contest, we appreciate all the support and dialogue we've had with disney stakeholders, we are proud of the impact we've had, value creation, and good governance. joining us is laura, it's good to catch up with you on this. it's interesting how disney shares did trade a little bit lower and underperform. i suppose it is because someone is always disappointed with the outcome of a vote if you are

voting for a company where you already own the stock. what's next, in terms of company priorities? is it more of the same, or is there something else to expect?>> i think there is hope. he got 31% of the vote, i'm surprised that he did that well. i thought it would be more short-term oriented, with better concession planning, that's not going to be on the board for at least another year. next, they have to fix the streaming losses. they have to start up this joint venture with warner bros. and fox. we've got to figure out a way to drive growth at espn. the got to fix the theme parks. as you know, disney falls on the wrong side of the work

portion, and that's hurting attendance in orlando.>> what has to be fixed at the theme parks? it doesn't seem like they have raised prices, it doesn't seem like visitation is struggling at this point.>> i think visitation is fine in california, and it is really strong offshore, in shanghai, hong kong, and paris. in orlando, they are raising prices, you are exactly right, and there is sort of backlash from the political spectrum. prices are sort of egregious in orlando.>> i'm not surprised to hear that. the company has said that they have cost cuts in trade, they've pulled some forward, they are going to have free cash flow this fiscal year. they are staying comparable to the pre-covid peak. all the things you mentioned they have to do, it seems like that is central to the plan right now. the stock may have reflected a

lot of that, it vastly outperformed other legacy media. it traded above where nelson pell sold it over a year ago. >> he spent $25 million waging a contest that he lost, but he made $1 billion on his events investment by driving decision- making, so he could keep the board the way he wanted it. he made $1 million by spending $25 million fighting with disney. that's exactly the kind of things a billionaire will do.>> you can't really argue if that was the backup plan, making a lot of money by making a lot of noise, i guess that makes sense. from here on out, in terms of risk versus reward in disney shares, you see the joint streaming venture is going to be a mover of the needle. what else is there to expect in terms of giving the signal as to whether or not the suck and

get another leg high?>> 10 million court cutters are not getting sports right now, i really like this espn joint venture with warner and fox. they've got to get that her content in the theaters, and on streaming. they have every month a sort of tent pole coming out, you know that disney engine is driven by box office success. they need more box office success. disney has been sort of doing parlay at the box office, they need to fix that and cut costs on the streaming side.>> i wonder if the industry in general is making that easier to essentially rethink the entire expense base when it comes to producing content. paramount is in play to some degree. it is unclear if they want to keep up the same level of investment. if you look at every hand at

the table, after netflix, you would think disney has the best.>> yep, i agree 100%. they have a lot more outlets, abc, cable channels, they have streaming, they have a lot of outlets that distribute content, they are getting paid a lot of different slices, whereas net flicks has one outlet. they put it on streaming, globally, that's it. they don't have other ways to make money. it's content. there are a lot of different silos where they can earn $.10, $.20, $50. i think that's a better business model than the netflix single business point distribution model.>> we will see. netflix is trying to create some physical experiences, we will see how it all converges later down the line. in queue, laura. don't miss the disney ceo joining us tomorrow morning, on squawk on the street.

intel has reported some steep losses. christina is here with more on that move.>> investors knew it was going to be bad, but maybe not this bad. restated financials showed an operating loss of roughly over $7 billion last year, when you compare it with a profit of over $11 billion for product businesses in the same year. losses will hit at peak this year in the foundry business, because of high start up costs. they will also be advancing chip technologies. they don't expect to break even until 2027, or hit 40% gross margins and 30% operating margins until the end of 2030, six years out. they are warning of low core

generators, a.i. chips did not do as well as they thought. you have a slower round of products, the lack of a.i. participation, and these high costs that have investors selling out today, and when you zoom out and compare intel, intel is the only stock in the red on the year, currently trading at 33 times, and nvidia expects sales revenue of almost 250%, so you decide if it is too expensive or not. intel does have a lot to prove in the path to profitability, they hope this segment break out of the foundry business will divide better transparency, better comparisons, and then hopefully a better evaluation.>> that is the hope, we will see if they can put that to good use.

thank you very much. we are just getting started here. up next, drilling down on energy, crude is seeing serious strength. moran pies is back with more on how long he thinks a rally could last. you are watching closing bell on cnbc. [ music ]

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scrapping the electric vehicle project back in february. apple hasn't committed to personal device projects, they are still in the research base. we did reach out to apple, that we have yet to hear back. thank you, pippa.>> the energy sector is outperforming. let's bring in warren pies. mark, warren, good to see you. you've been treating these stocks as a pretty good hedge for a diversified portfolio. maybe you have played some bonds, that works really well here. what about the move in crude now that it gets up to $90 per barrel?>> as you said, we have advocated for years that you should have a balanced equity

portfolio, this is doing something that nobody else in this market is doing. we like the diversification, it is working, but when you approach it on a standalone basis, you are talking about crude oil, on a standalone basis. i do think we are bullish on a commodity. i do think it will be a soft ceiling. i'm seeing signs that this rally is getting very long in the tooth. i am of two minds. energy is a diversify her, we like it, but oil, it's not going to turn around tomorrow. what are the signs that you do see in the crude market? as it goes up, people say there are g little - - there are geopolitical concerns. it's a familiar set of factors that don't always work, but

right now that is where you are getting the attribution.>> it is kind of the story everyone tells themselves at this point in the cycle. this is a sentiment story, there are geopolitical concerns. we've had ukraine hitting russian refineries, we've had israel striking iran, both of those are concerns. if you go to the history of geopolitical events and uprisings, unless there is a new full disruption of supply, i've never seen anyone who can trade oil based on geopolitics. it is largely narrative. what really matters to me is futures positioning. give me one indicator to call a market, this would be the indicator. we came into the year where hedge funds were at the highest position, peak pessimism. they have wound those down. we don't get the report until friday, and it goes back

tuesday. given everything that's happening, i would guess that we would be very optimistic. the key tell is when those cycles are going to turn.>> let's listen to what david had to say a little while ago.>> we have physical bars, gold is a good position for us. why have you made it so large?>> there is a conflict album with the overall monitoring of the scope policies, the policies are systemically too loose. i think the deficits are ultimately a real problem, i think this is a way to hedge the risk of something not so good happening.>> we tell ourselves stories as to why it

does what it does. what is your stance right now? i know you are favorable toward gold.>> we came into the year thinking gold would rake out to a sustainable new all-time high, and hit $2500 an ounce. we like gold, and there has been some confusion over the gold rally this year. everyone wants to say that there's this one silver bullet that you can use to call pricing, we've seen gold rallying while rates have increased, this can cause confusion. when you study the gold market, it's this ephemeral thing, it is trust, it is not necessarily something you can measure. i think he is onto something, we have never seen this large

of a physical deficit in this country's history. i think it makes a lot of sense to add gold to the allocation portfolio, given the uncertain experiment that we are running.>> we can certainly put some attention, it does seem to push all in a similar direction. thank you.>> thank you for having me. so the s&p is just below the flatline come up next, we will hear from one strategist. closing bell will be right back. [ music ] (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

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[ music ] pippa stevens is back with the latest.>> sherry redstone has reached a tentative agreement to sell her stake in paramount to sky dance media, according to bloomberg. this follows the wall street journal reporting earlier today that they were in exclusive talks. the provisional accord is to purchase national amusements, which does control 80% of voting stake in paramount. mike?>> this deal is sort of handicapped. we will see what it will be for the paramount down the road. the s&p 500 is struggling for direction, as the treasury rises to the highest level since last november.

max is joining us. max, it's good to see you. there are familiar challenges to the market that have been feeding off a perfect backdrop. inflation is on the downside, people are expecting a strong economy and record highs stock market, there may be some convocations. how do you see it playing out?>> for the next couple months we are in for some further gains. we look at some of the macro data in the united states and globally. and it plot - - it applies in particular to the united states, ceo confidence has been picking up. we look at consumer sentiment around future finances, which is one of the determining forces of future consumption. that has really been on a tear for the last few months as well. global central banks are moving from hikes to cuts, and we are

talking about the impact of easing monetary policy. we are looking at the next couple months around the earning and reporting season, consensus expectations are again for an warning - - and earnings decline around 1%. again, consensus is very, very downbeat. particularly with the reporting season, there is a bit more upside for risk in general.>> all those inputs, you see >> we are seeing slower movers that are very hard to time, and it can always get more extreme. they seem to have some bearing

on returns down the road.>> those people give us that pushback, to be fair, you could have told me that a month or two ago, it has been expensive. we are trying to get 21 times earnings. it doesn't mean the next day could bring us up to 22, at least temporarily. in terms of sentiment and positioning, it is pretty neutral. we've had a minor schedule, when we look at aggregate real money investor sentiment, and we look at the published

sentiment from asset managers worldwide, that's pretty much neutral, whether that is duration, investment, high- yield, even in equities. we only see these really tiny over weights, from a sentiment and positioning perspective, again, i think this has a few more legs.>> we are seeing this on a global basis, more tactical investors, i would imagine. do you think can we get closer to last year's highs?>> i don't think we are going to pass 5%, substantially. i think that's the important thing for risk assets overall. it's not necessarily where deals are going to go. i think it could go a little

bit higher. there is time to stand by in duration. you want to be a bit more long duration. from a risk perspective, for spread and equity, the really important thing, as long as that move is happening gradually, it's not really a problem. yields will go up pretty gradually. to be honest, we have promised cuts that still have not stopped the equity market. the rates move was pretty benign, pretty gradual, as long as that is continuing, that's pretty good. >> the tenured treasury traded

briefly above 4.4. >> up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we go to christina, who is standing by with those.>> more price hikes are coming for spotify users, and some say - - some sales are hitting slumps. that's next. [ music ]

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[ music ] with more development on paramount, pippa stevens.>> 26>> $26 billion was offered for paramount, according to a new report in the journal, and of course paramount has decided to enter into exclusive talks with sky dance. those conversations are pausing any other conversations for 30 days. this comes after apollo had originally offered $11 billion for paramount movie studio before increasing that bid to $26 billion, including debt. the journal notes that some paramount directors opted to move forward with sky dance over apollo, since it was not clear how apollo would finance

the bid. paramount's market cap is $7.5 billion. we did reach out to the company, but we have yet to hear back.>> $15 billion in debt, $26 billion would be a premium, but not a huge one. thank you, pippa. let's get to christina for a look at the key stocks.>> a slowdown for beauty, ultra beauty is seeing a slowdown that's a little bit earlier and a little bit bigger than we thought. it's more significant in the high-end makeup and hair care lines. shares are down almost 15%. beauty has sit out - - beauty has stood out, but other stocks are going down, like estee lauder, since their products are sold at ulta beauty

locations. spotify is moving the opposite direction, the company plans to increase prices for premium prescription services, and yes, that means hikes in the united states for a second time in just a year. shares are up 7.5%. to christina, thank you. still ahead, driving big gains, ford is seeing higher numbers wl y. weilsee how that could impact the rest of the automotive and ev space. we will be right back.

in case you missed it, catch the full interview with david. just go to cnbc.com/pro. and we will have a sitdown with steve cohen. go to our website or scan the qr code on your screen. up next, levi's reporting at bsnttop of the hour with some sutaial gains over the last few months. we will break down the key themes and metrics in that report. that and more when we take you inside the market zone [ music ]

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earnings out in overtime today. >> this is a testament to the decisions made when it comes to hybrids in terms of production. take a look at the quarter one sales. we know about the f-150, the traditional vehicles, up 2.6%, hybrids are up 32%, as they have been pushing production there. this speaks to the decision on pricing on ev's. ford has jumped into third place behind tesla and sunday. and yes, it is still tesla that dominates the market, ford made the decision to dramatically slice the price on the mustang, and late february, sales took off. it speaks to what the market is looking at in terms of pricing.

and this is ford versus tesla. i know there will be tesla bulls who say look at the last five years. we are only looking at this quarter. that's what the sales numbers affect. overall, 7.1% market share.>> installed there. thank you very much. stock is up 50%, doubled in about a year. market volumes are huge. you acknowledge some of the progress, some of the strategies. let's talk about it.>> yeah, i think we have a really favorable view of the fundamentals in the company, as

you noted, retail has accelerated into this year. march is one of the best months for retail trading and engagement. the mean stock frenzy of the first half of the year, we have a very favorable view from a cyclical standpoint, and from a secular effective, we do expect them to take share. we will have strong net asset growth, delivering new products into the market that are going to generate additional revenue for the company. we have futures trading, cash trading, and the credit card launch that they just announced last week. the stock is under evaluation, moving from eight dollars to close to $20 in just under four months, now trading at 24

times, we feel like a lot of initial value has been captured.>> all of the initiatives are obviously rounding out the product array, becoming a little more of a full service investment. the other thing they are going into, whether it's cashback cards and other investing products, the companies that dominate those areas treat at 10 or 20 times earnings, not 50 like robin hood does. i want to know about opportunity for this company.>> yeah, it's important to highlight that these are incremental to the core business. i don't think any of these initiatives are going to dominate the revenue. we don't think that there will be a significant deterioration. these initiatives are generally incremental, in areas that are

capital, expanding internationally with a product as well. we just see that dynamic not really playing out over the next few years.>> gotcha. kyle, with we appreciate it. courtney, what should we expect out of levi's?>> it's the first quarter for levi strauss. investors want to know if the look has changed at all since the last reported forecast. beyonce's new country album is bringing some positivity to the brand and pop culture even in recent days. bigger picture, shareholders really want to know more about the plan for the legacy brands future, particularly as it

seems the concern about consumer ability continues to grow. retail executives are wondering if discretionary spending can continue. we will ask about all of that and more as we speak to michelle on last call this evening. it's her first interview as ceo, and it's a cnbc exclusive. >> i didn't realize beyonce was going to be a factor. courtney, thank you very much, we will see what the numbers give us. the s&p 500 is back in positive territory, of about 1/8 of a percent. it has been oscillating after a few days of decline. you have small-cap outperforming, you do have about 60% of volume to the upside. bonds have been a big part of

the story. the selloff and treasury, you have the 10 year around 435. that's going to do it for closing bell. >> a late afternoon slump sending things down lower for the second straight day. that's the scorecard on wall street, but the afternoon is just getting started, welcome to closing bell overtime.>> energy is the best performing sector. now, investors turn their attention to another lead, we will have instant