done with earnings for the week and data except for tomorrow. >> except for tomorrow. we're looking forward to that and then, all of a sudden, bank earnings are right around the corner and we're all over again. i feel like, didn't we just finish this? interesting as we continue to follow and speculate about the fed and what they'll do with rates for the bank sector. >> a series of all-time highs for industrials and insurers. let's get to "the half." carl, welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour big moves from the investment committee today, which is also debating the state of the rally. joining me josh brown, kari firestone, bill baruch and liz young. let's check the markets. we're green across the board today. we do have a nice rebound. rates are down. oil is holding steady. the dollar is weaker. all of that is playing into this story. we do want to begin with significant moves from kari today, which we're going to show you on our wall, at least the beginning of, because you've trimmed a number of big-name

stocks, many of which have done quite well, and that probably leads into why you're trimming them. let's show the wall as we track your trades. you've trimmed home depot, amex, booz and sherwin williams. >> we're up 28% since the middle of october, and these stocks have participated dramatically. some of them on the basis of interest rates perhaps coming down. now we may not have that rate cut as quickly as expected, so why not take some profit. i think, by and large, we're talking about housing related stocks, defense, banking. i mean, finance, amex, all-time high. we trimmed them. >> are you -- i almost feel like you're also suggesting that stocks that went up a lot on rate cut hopes might be in jeopardy of losing some of those gains if we're not going to get

the kind of cuts we thought we were, and you'd like to get some off the table before the pullback happens. >> well, either a pullback or they underperform. they can be flat and underperform. there are other opportunities. we're going to transpose money from here to other places we think we have more upside. >> you sold completely out of o'reilly. >> we did. >> why? >> i feel terrible about this, mr. o'reilly. it's been such a good stock. we've owned this for years and may own it again. if you look at the chart of o'reilly auto, it's a fabulous chart, and nowit's an expensive stock. however you look at it, same store sales, and you think why the parts and auto repair business has been so strong. in a way, people were not able to get new cars. now they are. weren't trading in. now they are. so we think this might be a time to take money off the table. >> it's not all about selling or taking money off the table.

>> the stocks have more upside, trade for below market multiples. people are traveling. we talked about that yesterday. we also think that if we consider what's going on just in the world of cars and being able to find used cars at reasonable prices, that's better. and so we're making these choices based on where opportunities are. >> do you think, josh, we're vulnerable in the sense of what has, in part, driven kari to trim the names she has? many, many stocks in this more broad market have gone up a lot on the prospect that we're going to get these rate cuts we think we're going to get. whether it's powell or bostic, a lot of fed speak today and i think headlines coming up as some of the speakers make those remarks, the stocks have gotten ahead of themselves on what will

turn out to be false hope. >> we've been in this moment for a little while where we're back to higher interest rates on, let's say, the two year or the ten year negative for a certain type of stock. big stocks, important stocks, but then when those fears ease for the day, it's like a green light to go out and buy them. the risk on/risk off stuff. on a monday it would look like europe is armageddon and the next day currencies would rally and there would be this whole group of stocks you could blindfold yourself and buy any of them. eventually everyone learns the game and it stops working. look at today. real estate is number one, up 1% on the day.

number three is industrials, number four is tech. >> the russell. >> we're going to call it cut on, cut off. today is a cut on day. people are more sanguine and will let the stock run. if you have something negative on the inplagues front or tomorrow's jobs report is a blow-out number or earnings are ahead of schedule it will be a cutoff market and industrials will be down big. this is the new game. i hope we can have this game for, i don't know, as many weeks as we have june/july. you can track it yourself on your screen. >> so if it's that binary as you suggest, rates up and cut off, rates down, cut on.

so, liz, do you feel we are vulnerable whether it's kari expressing it through selling or trimming, some names that have gone up a lot on these hopes. josh laid it out pretty well. the market is obviously super sensitive about higher interest rates because it's traded uneasy. >> the move index which is the volatility in yields has gone up this week. though we have a backoff in yields today, we're still up on the ten year this week. that is a huge move in treasury yields. so far, it's been a short-term change in trend. yields up, stocks up, so i don't think it's definitive yet that's what's occurring. i do think the market is going to run out of patience for this waiting period. we somehow digested going from six cuts to three cuts very easily and at some point we continue to keep pushing these back. i think the bigger risk, what we

are at risk for, is a reheating and re-acceleration in inflation that extends beyond the february numbers because those were explained away by seasonality. if we get hotter inflation for march, hotter inflation for april, i think you'll hear conversations about hikes coming back into play. >> that would be super cut off. >> that would be way cut off. >> you just talked about weeks and weeks ago about the biggest risk you see is the possibility that we do have reigniting -- >> yes. that is the risk. >> and then the fed has to either act on that or just keep rates much higher for much longer than even people suggest. >> that is the risk, and i think if you listen to what the fed had to say the last time they had the presser, they were basically like, look, a strong labor market alone, in and of itself, is not going to interfere with us doing what we think we need to do on the interest rate side. i don't think the market

believes them, quite frankly. i would be looking to tomorrow, and don't worry about headline. we're looking for 216,000 jobs. don't worry so much about that. if that's at 300,000, no one is going to fall out of a window. look at average hourly earnings. look at hours worked. look at the stuff that will really filter into pce in the near term. that's the stuff where the market really might not like it, to liz's point. she's exactly right. earnings are not the risk. it just isn't. international stuff is not the risk. this is the risk that the fed says, you know what, one more wouldn't kill anyone and we're back to talking about when is the next 25-point basis point hike? >> so how should we view the market here? >> tomorrow is big for near-term trading. you have a probability of three

cuts this year. the market is being prepared for some hotter data. in the last couple of days, the cut on, services data is lower than expected. cpi and ppi have started to nudge up a bit. i think the next couple of weeks here will be crucial for this market. >> the market is definitely in some respects, and it's not showing up all that well, a couple of big pullback days don't mean anything. well, what if the fed does nothing? what if they don't cut even once? what if they just cut once? what if it's not until the fourth quarter like bostic suggested? steve cohen was on the network yesterday and said, well, the market is pricing in three. i'm not going to argue with that. i had david einhorn of green light on from sohn where he said

maybe the market is ahead of itself as well. let's listen. how many times are they going to cut this year? >> i think fewer than are priced in right now. >> fewer than three? >> sure. >> do you think there's a chance they don't do anything? >> there's a chance. i think there's a lot of indication of that. >> it is going to be live and die by the data. the cpi is coming down the pipeline. the market has reacted to fed chair powell not denying we're going to cut. we are in an election year this year. the fed reserve watches the stock market less than people think and they're a bit more political than people think. >> let me remind you you've got seven fed speakers -- seven -- throughout the day, including

richmond's barkin who will speak in five minutes. we'll have the headlines from steve liesman once we know what he is saying and that plays into our conversation. kari, the next step is things have moved in this market or investors are starting to buy things on the expectation that rates were going to start coming down like small and mid caps, for example. jpmorgan's retail flows, not institutional like from other firms. big retail buying. uptick in small and mid cap. are we getting offsides as wolfe suggests? are we subscribing to them breaking out? not quite yet, they say. >> i would say not quite yet. and those retail flows can move around a lot. you can have a couple of very big days on the down side and that would wipe out the retail buying. i would just like to point out on the question about inflation and what happens with cuts or

not cuts, someone like einhorn has been a gold bug for years, and he has bought gold in the past, i think big sizes of gold, he believes in gold. i don't think that because he's buying gold, we should therefore assume that this is something brand-new for him that inflation, he believes, is going to be higher -- >> he is far from the only one. >> i understand that. >> he's not an outlier. there are a lot of people who have come on the network, big names, and suggested, well, inflation will be stickier, or i wouldn't be surprised if we get no cuts like james gorman. on this note, we do have the headlines now from the richmond fed president barkin. >> barkin saying it's smart for the fed to take our time before beginning the process, remember that word, the process, of toggling rates down. he thinks they ought to cut rates but not necessarily right a

away. he's optimistic keeping rates can bring them back to the target. he's looking for inflation to decline and he wants it to be sustained and he wants it to broaden to more goods. we've heard that from a bunch of fed folks, the idea of broadening the decline. higher rates, he believes, is yet to come especially showing up in balance sheets of corporations and higher interest payments. the economy is less vulnerable to a slowdown. companies spent time preparing for one that didn't happen. a couple other points, he says the risk of continued shelter and service inflation is something he's watching carefully because goods prices, which have been negative, have started to normalize. he believes the fed has the firepower to respond to a slowing economy and knows how to react because josh and i like the same music, think about the market the same way. i prepared a cheat sheet for just what josh was talking about. we know, for example, 17 of 19 officials forecast at least one cut this year with the median at 3.

here is what everybody is pretty much saying. cuts are forecast, not promised, phrased like it's likely appropriate to cut. they're data dependent, using phrases if the economy evolves as expected and they're in no rush to cut. and we have time. i'll leave it right there, but that's really what you heard barkin use that phrase, we have time. the cut, no cut regime we're under now. >> so these remarks sound more cut off than cut on. nobody is saying no cuts but this is another, like, hey, it's not june. just to me. >> josh, can you nuance your phraseology? i know it sounds good the way you said it, but it's not quite cut off but cut delay. >> same thing. steve, we're talking about june.

it's cut on or off in june. >> that explains the volatility we've seen over time. all of this is being expressed, guys, in the june probabilities. i've had it as low as 53%. it had been 62, 63%. that is where the doubt and the concern and then the confidence in the cuts is being expressed in june. >> do you want to remind us as we wait for goolsbee, the chicago fed president, nonvoter, by the way, who will have his own remarks, what we could expect from him later on in the same hour? >> you know, scott, i keep waiting for somebody to step out of the fold and say something dramatic. i am not hearing it. i guess i amimpressed and a little bit confounded by how everybody has been in the same camp here.

almost everybody expresses some version of those three things. what's a dove these days? one who is more confident that inflation will come down. what was a dove before? we have to cut rates now because we're going to have a big problem if we don't. there's almost nobody in that camp. that's not democrats or republicans, not trump appointees or biden appointees to the fed. they all seem to be in the same place. the other thing we don't hear, scott, is this notion of we have to change the metric or the target. bostic, i don't know when he became as hawkish as he is, but he's probably the most vocal hawk on the committee right now. i think others have similar ideas, but remember yesterday we talked to him one cut fourth quarter. so chill with your cut on, cut off, josh, until, i don't know, hal wenloween now.

>> the fed isn't exactly preemptive or proactive, they're reactive. so even those who may suggest, well, we don't want to eventually have a problem if we leave rates too high for too long, they never seem to actually see the problem until the problem is here and then they're forced to react. >> and then they get it wrong. look, scott, one of the amusing things about reading the fed these days is how surprised they seem to be that they're getting it right. if you read barkintoday, look, we know this always ends badly. he actually says that in the speech. i was looking at the frequency of higher inflation, and then it comes down and you have the spike and the recession. it happens every time. it has not happened this time t. has not happened thus far. the fed does not have a

wonderful record of being able to thread that needing between bringing down inflation and not causing a recession. they're surprised they're getting it right. i think the market is surprised they've gotten it right. if you look at all the forecasts for the recession that never happened. again, what's happening, and i love the focus on the economy, which i think karen was also echoing here, this idea, look, we haven't gotten the weakness in the first quarter we thought we were going to get. we've ratcheted it up. >> good points, of course. raise your hand for goolsbee later this hour, what he says and how the markets react. the stock is hanging in. so we'll see. let's move and talk about tech because it all plays into this conversation to josh's idea, rates come down, tek goes up.

the idea, too, whether this market is in a bubble because of rates and whether some stocks have bubble like qualities though the market may not be. david einhorn, here is what he said. >> i don't particularly think we're in a bubble. we covered in the first quarter of last year. based on companies that are involved. >> liz, the bears love to point out, look at the stock moves. nvidia is up so much. a lot of the chips names have gone crazy. it's got to be a bubble, right? that's what you still hear from the bears. what do you make of what both cohen and einhorn had to say? it's not a bubble. >> i don't think it's a broad bubble. i think there was a bubble and maybe still is in the enthusiasm around a.i. in the sense of

expecting it to come to fruition this year or some time in the next 12 months. i still think it's a theme that will continue to play out. any new theme, any new innovation goes through a boom or bust cycle. we haven't had a bust cycle in this theme yet. so are we in a bubble if we're comparing that to the late '90s or early 2000s? no. we're still reasonably priced by comparison that way and reasonably priced by comparison of tangible revenues occurring in a lot of companies that have been driven up. however, are we at a late cycle enthusiasm phase that could get drawn out, bring things even higher? whether you look at trailing or forward, you're somewhere in that 80th to 90th percentile range. it's hard to argue that we're cheap. a bubble i would consider higher.

>> i brought out tech purposely. i want to highlight another move. bill baruch, you bought a new position in meta. talk to me. >> i've held back on this name. recently chimg some of the other names, nvidia, amd and apple, i don't want to ignore the potential of what's still taking place with a.i. but as a better run company i think meta is starting to show us what they've done with capex, mizu put out a note of lowering some of the operating costs. i think that got me looking at it. the partnership with amazon on e-commerce,the reels with some risk to tiktok and monetization of that could really bring free cash flow.

if they monetize better, we could see it beat, this stock is breaking out and i want to be able to move on from -- not move away from nvidia but move on and get more exposure in the space in a different way. >> kari, a quick comment on that before we bounce? >> i think it's great that you bought meta. i think the upside right now seems to be the momentum is carrying. >> you've been trimming, right? >> we trimmed because it was so big. it became our largest position and it's approaching that again. >> got to do what you've got to do. up next, the four energy names josh brown says looks, quote, exceptional right now. we'll drill down on that. we have more commodity trades to talk about. bill has trimmed a name. we're back after this. >> announcer: are you following "the halftime report" podcast? what are you waiting for? look for us in yr voteoufari

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we're back. crude taking a bit of a break today. it has been on quite the run. you are looking at stocks specifically that you think are looking pretty interesting these days, josh.

>> i do. thanks, scott. last week as my final trade on thursday i wanted to highlight ieo, which is the explorers and producers etf. it tends to own the more high beta energy names. everything i'm about to tell you applies to the higher names. this could be a leadership group when we look back in december just based on the strength i'm seeing here. i want to take to you trade school. you'll hear this term tossed around a lot on this network and others, overbought. a lot of people don't understand there's a statistical definition to overbought and what them further don't understand is overbought is not necessarily negative. so the connotation, that stock is up too much, it's overbought. ask yourself the second question, though, why is it overbought? is there a fundamental reason why everyone is accumulating this stock? there might be. maybe it's overbought because the stock is going to keep going and go higher.

you have overbought names in the energy patch right now, and i submit to you that's not a reason not to be in them. maybe you don't buy them right this second. you have the average rsi, that's relative strength, at about 78 in the xle, thta going back to , so in two decades we haven't seen this much buying pressure in these names, and i'm telling you right now, to me, that doesn't feel like the top. that feels like a reintroduction to this space. now you look at crude at 85, the highest level since october, it's up 17% year to date, and you think how underweight managers are and you get excited. >> kari, i will come to you in a

minute. conoco phillips, about 18% of the weighting. this is on fire. marathon, take a look at diamondback, cute name. the other one is phillips 66, a refiner. they are all overbought. that's short term. i urge you if they're not on your ticker, put them on your ticker and keep an eye on them. >> bill baruch, you have marathon, you have 66, you have exxon, what about josh's thought here? >> i agree totally with him. >> that's why i love you. >> that's why four to five years it takes to build more refining capacity. right now we are constrained. you have crude oil elevating.

moon shots with marathon, phillips 66 setting record highs. to josh's point as well, things can stay overbought. marathon consolidates and goes back up. and crude oil is in tight supply and high demand. >> kari, liz, do you also want to agree with me? who wants to agree with me first? >> there are a lot of reasons to own it if you worry about a re-acceleration. the correlation between oil prices and real yields is very tight. i think that continues to go up. you have energy stocks paying a decent dividend. it almost works for both schools. >> i would say another way to play energy right now is natural gas which has done nothing but go down. natural gas will be seen as a

stock we think is very interesting, and it's a different cap name, different cap space. i think you can do both. >> i would kind of disagree with that. natural gas has fallen out of bed pretty hard. you do not see markets like this stop going down until there's a big capitulation. i am staying far away from natural gas at the moment. i would be cautious. >> what about -- we can look, also, diamondback, marathon, 66, conoco. specific in some respects to refiners. there are others, by the way, who love this trade. it was the best in march. >> yep. >> and your overall suggestion is it could keep going. >> of the fours four names i mentioned, here is what's fascinating. yes, the stocks are up a lot, but you're not overpaying necessarily for these names. the median trailing 12 month p/e ratio for those four is 11 times. the median price to free cash

flow is 13. you've got 7% expected earnings per share growth over the next year. so these are not horrifically overpriced monstrous semiconductor stocks. that's not what's going on here. these are underowned, underrated names that people haven't paid attention to really until the last month or so. i think that's really important. the second thing i would say, and this is a market wide thing i want you to understand, we keep a list of the best stocks in the market and some of the things that we're using for inclusion, we're looking at relative strength. we're also, of course, looking for profitable companies. we're looking for companies that are within spitting distance of new 52-week highs. the most stocks in my list right now, if you look at the 11 sectors, are coming from the energy space. i have 13 of them from energy out of a list of 68. so there's something happening here that people should just keep in mind. when do you buy them? here is the thing with overbought stocks. rsi is at 78, probably not like

the all-time greatest entry. so you're looking for low volume pullbacks in these names to start a position. in my experience, you will get them on a day like today and yesterday, oh, it's never going to pull back. it left without me. i get it. i understand that feeling. i have been through that before. you'll get it. wait for the low volume pull backs, for the down grades, that's when you want to get excited. >> many of these banks, a morning star -- >> i like that. >> they're marking these companies to $60 and $70 oil. imagine if we have oil above $80, they're going to raise that. higher cash flow. >> another commodity play that's done well, southern copper, up 36% in a month. you took some money off the table as a result of that move? >> yes. we started this position in december, added to it in january, added again a few weeks

ago end of february, early march. we're up 50%. i think we are in a commodity super circle or the start of it. southern copper is one of the best run mining companies in the business, tremendous free cash flow trending in positive ways. >> and then, liz, you can comment on this, copper was one of your picks, right, as a contrarian pick? >> january 18th, give or take a day, bill and i were on together. i used an etf of a base metals fund. 35% of it is copper, 30% is alu aluminum. i did talk about lumber, too. it was more so the idea of infla inreigniting. when everyone thought it was falling, all of these commodities would go with it.

>> bill, you want to talk about gold, the gld, physical bars as well. talking about monetary and fiscal policy clearly as the reason why. it's been on a run today. >> i am an eternal gold bull. i am biased. i run a metals fund as well. here is the thing, gold is making new record highs. copper is starting to move. alu aluminum, the metals are waking up. gold continues to set record highs as treasury yields are going higher. prices are going lower. look at the bricks.

defending the chinese yuan and buying the yuan, i think there could be something bigger, not overnight. you would have to see silver get above 30 to fuel it. don't chase it. >> good stuff. you guys crushed it. bertha? hi, scott. the epa awarded $20 billion in grants today for clean energy projects across the u.s. the money comes from the inflation reduction act and will be given to eight organizations that will undertake thousands of projects that rain from energy efficient home improvements to large-scale projects such as electric vehicle charging stations. weather forecasters are predicting an extremely active 2024 atlantic hurricane season. forecasters at colorado state university are predicting 23 named storms this summer, 11

hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes for the season. a typical year averages about 14 tropical storms with 7 becoming hurricanes. major league baseball is headed to sacramento. the oakland a's reached an agreement to play there until 2027, while the team's new vegas stadium is being built on the site of the recently closed tropicana hotel. the a's will make their move to sutter health park once their lease in oakland ends after this season. first it was the raiders that moved back and forth, then moved to vegas. now it's the a's. back to you. >> the fan base not happy at all. bertha, thank you so much. a media double play. paramount pressured on some deal chatter and disney delivers a big win. committee member jim lebenthal owns both. he joins us next. er. -thanks for swinging by, carl. -no problem. so what are all those for?

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welcome back. shares of paramount down on reports it's in deal talks with sky dance. you see that stock down more than 9%. it did take a little bit of a leg lower as our david faber was on the air reporting from his sources that there would have to be an equity raise as part of a

potential deal. you see what's happened there. jim lebenthal, he owns the stock and disney, too. we wanted to get your take, jim, because i think we morphed from i'm optimistic about the long-term streaming prospects to i'm along for a deal ride. now you've gotten some legit talk of a deal and the stock is down 9%. what say you now? >> the equity raise with david faber catches me by surprise and the reason is the company has been operating well. they've had 800 million of cash flow. they probably should have another positive quarter on the back of thencaa tournament and the super bowl. the hanging question is why is the stock down? why does everybody hate this stock, to put it another way? two answers for that.

one is, sherry red stone is the controller, will do something that favors the a shares over the b shares. i don't think that's likely. the ceo addressed this on the last conference call. i was on the call, i heard him say any deal will benefit all shareholders and said that unsolicited. i think he knows what's out there rumored. they will have some legal ramifications if they favor the a shareholders over the b shareholders. still, that's out there. >> when you say why is the stock down, to me, it's quite obvious. it's the market's perception that this is a deal of desperation, number one, and then it goes down more, obviously, because an equity raise is dilutive. it is what it is. this is a position of weakness not strength. >> maybe i'm wrong about the equity raise, but that's the first i've heard about that. they don't have any debt maturities for the next three

years. they have plenty of cash on hand. i don't know why they would do the equity raise. maybe david knows something i don't. the reason i led with the two positive free cash flow quarters and $800 million at that is i don't think this company is anywhere near as weak as everybody wants to say. i think, more to the point, there is another deal that's out there -- now it's a rumor, it's not confirmed -- but apollo has reportedly offered an enterprise value deal that would value the stock in the low 20s. i've got to answer the question, we all have to answer the question, why if apollo would buy in the low 20s is it at 2 and change. one is the sherry redstone controlling stake i talked about. the other answer, nobody trusts management because a year ago they cut the dividend, and yet here we are, two positive free cash flow quarters in a row and probably another one this quarter which has the analyst community asking, why did you

cut the dividend? this is a situation people aren't going to believe anything until there's a deal on the table, but, again, with the apollo deal out there, i think this is a low 20s takeout. >> do you want to give me a quickie on now that we have a definitive win for disney in the proxy battle with peltz, which iger talked about on the network today, and said now the board is solely focused. the number one priority will be succession. how are you thinking about that from here forward as a share holder? >> the succession issue is a 2026 issue. obviously they'll be working on it this year and next. for me, now it's a time to execute particularly on streaming profitability, the hulu deal and whatever they're going to do with espn. it was intriguing the stock went down when the results were announced. i honestly think it would have gone down on whatever it was.

now it's the execution of the business plan which is where shareholder's minds are. >> jim lebenthal, we'll see you back here. coming up next our "call of the day." ubs saying one big banstk ad for a rate trap. bill baruch is in it. the debate is next.

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our senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us now with his "midday word." >> the market continues to color within the lines. for as much as it's been a lot of hoopla around a wobbly start to the second quarter, yeah, overbought. we've been basically going sideways for two weeks. yesterday, we spent all day exactly where the market closed two weeks earlier on fed day. so we're testing the premise of how we got here. but it's hard to find the market violating any rules along the way. really low discouraging -- or high dispersion, low volatility, all to the good. i think it's a tough starting place for further gains, but

market doesn't cooperate with that. >> now we have to see the jobs report and decide if the good news is good news or bad news. well, that's going to be the tell is to whether we think good news is good news or bad news. mike santoli, thanks. "final trades" are next.

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hope to see you on "closing bell," 3:00 eastern time. we take you through the final stretch with john. he's been bullish with this market. we'll find out if he still is. marcie mcgregor, roger altman and kevin simpson will be here at 3:00. "final trades" now. liz? >> gold miners today. the commodity is up today, i think it's up because of global currency volatility miners have not kept up. i think they can continue catching up. still 30% below their highs of 2020. >> good stuff. phil? >> i want liz's trade and mine, meta. it's freaking out as we are talking. >> it's up 4% today. nice session there. kerry? >> bookings holding.

that's a growth industry. >> jb this >> give me that chart, patty. what i'm showing you here is a confirmed freakout of shares of charles schwab. i do not own this stock, i may buy it. any way, technically, i love the way this looks. >> good stuff. thanks, everybody. see you on belle. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm deidre bosa in for kelly evans. here is what is ahead today. stocks are higher across the board. the dow is on pace to snap a three-day losing streak of ahead of tomorrow's key labor data. what happen it is the jobs numbers misses consensus in either direction? we'll game out all the possible scenarios for the fed and how investors should position. plus, disney notching a win ag