under a lot of the working hypothesis of the start of 2024. >> the start of the week, we thought maybe we won't, but that jobs report tomorrow, that will play a big factor. >> we will be talking about it a little bit here. meantime, thanks for watching power lunch. >> closing bell starts right now. thanks very much. welcome to closing bell, i'm scott wapner here at the new york stock exchange, the make or break begins with the reality over rates and whether later than expected cuts for the fed might soon put the bulls on defense. roger altman will join us in just a little bit. take a look at your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. stocks were green throughout much of the session and that was about 30 seconds ago we

started to head south. oil higher, -- jumped, yields fell and that was threatening to upset what was a pretty nice day. there is crude north of 86 steadily on the rise with the little bit of a breeze there but it is moving higher. look at that jump. that is up by 14% and really most of that coming within the last 30 minutes. tech bouncing a bit led by a big jump in shares. there is the vicks and there is the move i'm talking about. some headlines moving regarding geopolitics in the middle east maybe that is in part due to it. perhaps throwing cold water on this thesis of rate cuts coming this year. we will get into all of that. one of the stocks stories of the day, disney is tired or it was after winning its proxy fight over nelson. even that turning negative in the final stretch. the bull market. is it at risk?

let's ask john mallery, the chief investment officer there and one of the first to say last fall it was time to buy stocks. he was right and he is with me here. i've got mike's and tony on the desk too. we might as well widen it out because i want to get to the bottom of what is happening here. down by 400 points, a 425 point loss. i said to you when you sat down, you getting nervous? because you were bullish before most. now we are questioning where we are. >> i'm not getting nervous but i do like a different group of stocks today than i did a year and a half ago. i will start with the first quarter. one of the factors that really drove returns in the first quarter was price momentum. if you go back to 2000 and look at observations of that factor you are in the 97th percentile of observations. historically when you get into those percentiles, that ranking, you should expect a reversal so i do think there is room for stocks to pull back,

particularly those with the best momentum where i think more interesting opportunities lie in traditional value areas as well as small caps and mid caps. >> mike, you are getting real- time real worldview how jittery the market is to any major developments relative to geopolitics that area of the world is obviously already on edge so we are watching that. oil moving higher is not great for the story about where inflation is going. it ratchets up concerns about things overall. maybe the vicks too . >> a lot of things came to light around 2:00 p.m. one, biden tells netanyahu he wants to see -- the other one saying maybe we don't get rate

cuts at all because inflation keeps bumping sideways. all of it happened at once. i look at yields plunging and oil up and the vicks where it is and this isn't about it. that is sort of if you want to triangulate but, what was the setting for all of this? you mentioned -- it's been very calm and placid and rotating and perfectly cooling-off sideways and i think you got a little slippage in the rotation. the gears are slipping a little bit for now. the s&p 500 is back to a level it first got to about march 8th. the beginning of march. we've been playing around these areas where we first got to two weeks ago. none of this is a reversal of trend. none of this is anything but frictional action because of this little jolt of uncertainty in a very certain self- satisfied agreed-upon happy market. >> this has always remained an outlier risk that the market for the most part has looked

past and that being geopolitics and more escalation in an already tense area of the world. especially coming now when you have had a bit of a backup in rates. you see what's happening with the yen and what's happening with bonds a bit and rates going down but the market hasn't really fixated on what's been taking place in the middle east. it has looked past it. >> it has and if you had to give your preferences for why the market had a reversal, you would almost prefer it to be one of these clenching up because of a what if geopolitical scenario because usually those are fleeting and usually those aren't the major trend changers but you are right. i do think there has been enough of a kind of incremental tensions raised, israel iran, i

don't want to speculate, but it just shows you at a moment when a lot of people feel like the market maybe deserves to back off for some reason or another, at a market where the momentum has been carrying the day, where we do have jitteriness ahead of the jobs number. that is coming too and there are two way potential swings on that one. i think that explains part of how we just reacted to some of the headlines. >> for certain. it's also tax time. i always say it's murder on the orient express. everyone did it. you go through all the culprits and they all tried to kill -- >> traders are certainly talking this afternoon about what the catalysts are for the kinds of moves in the market we are seeing but let's bring in our senior economics correspondent steve liesman who has been following what has been one of the more busy days in a while. i think seven in total today seems to be the last and maybe at this moment the most powerful suggesting that if inflation continues to do what it's doing him a maybe we don't do anything. >> if i could provide a little context on what we are talking about here, it's not a huge move to the downside, i think mike would concur with that but

it did go straight down around 2:00. what happened that we are still wondering about? what we do know was in the middle of that, -- said what for some is the quiet part out loud. he said if inflation continues to move sideways it makes me wonder if we should cut rates at all. we've had many analysts talking about this idea. of course it's been on the air. we can't remember a time it's been said. that goes along with a lot of other folks out there saying we are going to take our time on this. anticipate cuts later this year. inflation is still too high. one comment from goolsby who said he is worried about employment if we stay too restrictive for too long and if you look at the tape, who knows what the story is but in the middle of that you had to move through the downside again exactly when he was talking. all of that said, allow me to contradict myself. yields are lower on the 10.

rate or cut probabilities are higher for june. all of that speaks to a market a little more worried about economic downside and less worried about the federal reserve not cutting interest rates. >> i don't know if you recall the words you said on our program at the halftime report today. you said, i keep waiting for somebody to step out of the fold and say something dramatic and i'm not hearing it. i'm confounded i how everyone has been in the same camp here. did we just have that moment? >> i do think neil went a little bit further than others have gone. i won't say that what he said is not embedded or implicit in what others have said. the differences other fed officials keep insisting they are confident inflation will continue to the downside. if it doesn't go to the downside, were not cutting rates, he continued the

conversation today. >> there's a lot of good cop, bad cop and today, cachacaria said something different. i think what investors should be doing is focusing on the margin of safety. if you are worried about the markets you can buy cheap. small caps are also very cheap . >> you can't play defense in small caps. i'm going to stop you right there . >> i agree with you. small caps are cheap so a margin of safety is there. i want to make an argument for small caps because i heard on your show the argument that small caps were less valuable because it's such a small piece. to put it in historical context, in 2000 the russell 2000 was around 6% of the s&p

500 if you look at market capitalization. today it's 5%. if you bought the 2000 value at the end of the late 90s you are still beating the s&p 500. to conceptualize in another way, if you look at total employment in the u.s. measured by payrolls, if you take that number, 45% of americans work for companies with 50 employees or less. that's a big deal. powell does care about that, employment does matter, and small companies are an enormous part of the u.s. economy so when you get those at a steep discount relative to history and you get faster growth rates, i think investors should be wise to allocate particularly their large growth . >> smaller companies are also more susceptible to the pitfalls of higher interest rates and i think you would admit that as much and that adds to the consternation over where rates may be going from here as we get fed speak in plenty today. marcy mcgregor is with us today of merrill and bank of america private bank. there is stephanie link, a cnbc contributor. i will go to you here. what do you make of late day

trade action? >> i think it's not surprising because we have to deal with a bunch of things. where are we going to settle out in terms of interest rates and the fed? is it zero? is it three? it certainly not six and probably not even three. but i step back and i think, why are we talking about less cuts? and that's because the economy is growing better than expected. the atlanta fed trackers at 2 1/2% for gdp for the first quarter and the consumer continues to be strong. i know we have a very important job report tomorrow but adp was encouraging especially on the wage front, 5% wage growth for consumers and if you switch to job, 10%. that is wonderful for the consumer. i know that hurts the inflation story but the consumer 70% of our economy roof for that. and manufacturing, we got pretty good manufacturing data not only here in the states but also overseas in china and i think that is encouraging as well, so we have to step back

here and say the economy can handle these higher rates and we are doing just fine and why is that important? because earnings can continue to grow. we go about 8% this year. we will see a broadening across the various different sectors. which, by the way, x technology, pretty attractive in terms of financials, energy, materials, those of been doing quite well. so i'm pretty encouraged. >> staff is in the good news is good news camp and we've been there at times but i feel like we are teetering trying to figure out if it actually is because that may be later cuts than expected and it may be that inflation is more sticky than we once thought. >> i think what's going on with the market is we are in a vacuum period between earnings seasons and i won't be surprised if we see a breather here and some consolidation. we have to remember that healthy markets do have pullback

and on average three or 5% for the s&p, but what i keep coming back to is i don't think this rally we've seen in the last five months is all enthusiasm around rate cuts. it helps but we have a fed that what they are essentially saying is they are data dependent so we are going to hang on every single data point, like foreign payrolls tomorrow, but you have earnings growth. you have liquidity and easier financial conditions. that's also helping if you sprinkle on a fed that is transparent and communicating clearly, i think it matters a lot less whether it's two cuts or three cuts or whether it's june or july because there's a lot of fundamentals supporting the rally. >> the problem is that the market seems to have decided long ago that the data already made the case that the rate cuts were coming because the trend was coming in the right direction. now if we have to question that, it leads to the uncertainty that causes days like this and moves within

various asset classes like we are witnessing. >> i think it's a piece of it. as i look at these probabilities going higher, i'm not sure that's all that's bothering the market. i think it might be a piece of it but this is useful commentary. i don't know if you remember several years ago when boler got criticized for saying that the funds could go from five to 7% and someone said that's irresponsible and i said it's irresponsible not to consider that. the idea of the fed not cutting because inflation stalls is on the table. it's something that should be part of your investment thesis out there. if you need the fed to cut my basis points for the year to work out for you, maybe you should alter the mix of your investments right there because it is some probability that those things do not happen this year. where we are right now is in these doldrums. this lack of clarity.

january and february were kind of lame and it came to progress on inflation. you had a guy like waller say we didn't overreact to these numbers but we did react to them and the idea after the last march meeting everybody moved to the right, they are still at three but just barely three hanging on by a thread or a single vote that is out there. so, the risk is higher for fewer cuts but that makes sense, but as we've been talking about if you end up with more growth because of that lower unemployment and higher wages that's an interesting trade for the average investor. >> you would normally take that as great news but we've decided this week that perhaps good news is not great news because you have the commentary around the fed of later if ever. >> i'm not convinced that good news is directly interpreted as bad news. it's bad news if you think it's temporarily good. it's bad news if you think the fed keeping rates above 5% is raising the risks that they are going to be there too long and parts of the economy will fall

by the wayside. it's not in the absolute. if you get 250,000 jobs tomorrow ima i think that's pretty much good news. the market will make its peace with that. unless you feel as if it's empty calories and it's going to reverse and therefore if the rate cuts are kind of needed to take the pressure off. i also want to say the fed has told you they are targeting inflation. it's all about shelter inflation. it's all about what filters into the numbers. it's not about unemployment right now, so even though we are so used to the idea that rate cuts are the fed rescuing the economy and we have to look at the economic inputs to decide what the bank shot effect is off of inflation, they need inflation to go down. that's the whole game. >> down about 400 we are told from our markets desk for the first time since the beginning of november, just around when the market had come off of the lowest levels. what about evaluations? are you comfortable with where we are? 10 year average for the dow is

16 seven today. today 18 four, 17 nine is the 10 year average for the s&p and today we are at 20.6. 21.8 to 10 year for the nasdaq, today we are at 26. what you make of that? >> multiples are higher. no way around it. they are rich, they are mature, they are stretched. taking video which is an amazing company, that is the same multiple in 2000. i'm not saying it's going to be the same exact scenario but evaluations are stressed which is why and pivoting away from the larger companies. the sox index, the semiconductor index trades at 30 times earnings. the average is 15, so they are rich, no way around it. they do have earnings growth and a lot of tailwinds. i would argue investors, if they want companies growing quickly, their direct beneficiaries of the ai boom in all types of applications and they are trading at much deeper

discounts so i like the opportunities there and i agree that inflation is key and i also believe that shelter is also the key. it's one third of the cpi. a lagging indicator and what i would say about interest rates, just briefly, the two year bond deal has been telling the fed to take out 100 basis points. the fed fund sits at 5 1/2, you have a committee deciding one and a market deciding the other. the market generally wins out and it's been -- powell has been signaling he's going to do this but i don't think it's prudent to be investing on, i'm expecting cuts in june. to me that's not the way to do it. look for the dislocations, take advantage of when people are nervous. if you stepped into the market this year, why would you want to buy what is underperforming? you wouldn't do that. you would say give me what's working and you can see that with the momentum trade in the first quarter. >> marcy, do you believe in the broadening story that it's time to look to underappreciated or cheaper areas of the market ?

even given some of the concerns we have about geopolitics the economy and the fed and everything else? >> i believe this will be a year of rotation because it supported by the prophet cycle. if you look, you've seen profits perking up on discretionary, industrials, financials and that tells a big story and i would also point at ism this week breaking 50 for the first time since october, 2022. my colleagues at ink of america global research did a little work and found that when ism reaches 50 for the first time in six months, and clearly this is longer than that, forward estimates rise by 12%. so i think the key to the story will be the prophet cycle and i agree that small caps are going to join the party later in the year. but, look at an area like energy. free cash flow generation where crude prices are is really attractive and positions you for a red-hot geopolitical world and a world where inflation can be stickier and more attractive evaluation.

i do think the story is a rotation that continues but is supported by the prophet cycle. >> you are a believer in that too, steph? we are going to get the banks late next week. >> yeah, right, and in terms of rotation we have been seeing it for a while now. on february 9th, the russell 1000 growth was outperforming the russell 1000 value by 900 basis points. fast forward to today, russell growth is still beating value but only by 300 basis points so value has certainly picked up the slack. you talked about or asked about evaluations. we can talk about banks trading at one or two times value, well- capitalized, good dividends and i suspect you will start to see and hear more about buybacks now that regulation is getting pushed to the side. you look at energy at 67 times forward estimates. look at what you are seeing in energy. obviously the companies say --

see value. industrials, some of them are expensive and some of them aren't and especially if you are going to see the manufacturing part of the economy continue, then they are cheap so, i think there's a lot of places to be investing. i'm looking at some places in healthcare and looking at united healthcare. i don't own it but the stock is down 12% in a straight line. trending at 16 times forward estimates so i think you're getting a lot of opportunities and a lot of places beyond 10. >> steve i'm going to get you the last word. you alluded to this yesterday when i asked a question about the tone and tenor of the group. the fed, and you suggested they are not and we could be setting up for battles in the room so to speak and it's interesting, would i suggest that powell seems to be the most of like? >> i think he is on that side. one thing i wonder when i read

the statement i try to make the distinction between what is policy and what is forecast. the statement is policy. the statement says we don't think we are going to cut into our confidence that we are heading toward 2%. it tells me the policy is to cut. that's were the chairman's head is at in reducing interest rates and that's what he thinks ought to happen this year, that that is the direction of the federal reserve. they've raised, they've peaks, they've helped and now they are looking at the policy to reduce rates. by how much is not policy yet or when is not policy yet but i think powell wants to cut. i think if he had all things equal he would cut before we were into the serious part of the election cycle and he would get out of the way of that but if he needs to cut or hike he would in the middle of that but i think you would like to get out of the way which means he would like to do it earlier but

he needs to have his committee with him. discount that a bit. but he is saying, if inflation stalls, maybe we shouldn't cut it off? i wouldn't be surprised to hear waller on board with that and maybe even bowman. there will be a faction that's a bit more hawkish and affection that's a bit more dovish. that's the way the committee should be. >> you may have to use the power of persuasion. he does have the bully pulpit. we will see how he wages that. steve, thank you. thanks to everybody. i'm going to see you back for the market zone. thank you so much. we will continue to watch these markets. right now the dow is down 436. for the first time since november. christina is watching stocks within the moving market. christina? >> i start with two companies big names in the food business but they are telling two different stories. conagra climbing but lamb

weston getting smashed period a lackluster quarter. down almost 20%. wayfarer is having a better day after i s a upgraded the rating driven by cost-cutting measures. the analysts saying as the home furnishing business recovers, wayfair can expect to be market faring. scott? >> christina, thank you. we are all over this late day selloff. evercore roger altman is with us next. expectations for the fed, geopolitical concerns, and much more. don't go anywhere, we are live at the new york stock exchange. you are watching closing bell on cnbc.

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come back on the air here. some geopolitical headlines. joining me now evercore founder and senior chairman deputy treasury secretary altman. good to have you back. how are you? >> i'm well. thank you. >> we seem to be debating what the fed is going to do and maybe it's going to be different from what we first thought. we've had two famous investors on air minimum over the last couple of days but i would like you to listen to what they think is going to happen and then i would like your own view. >> i think the market expects cuts and i think that is the number. i don't disagree with that. i think inflation has been somewhat contained and ultimately what it will come down to is that a true statement or not. the fed thinks it is eventually going to come down to 2% inflation rate. i think that's going to be hard.

>> how many times are they going to cut this year? >> i think fewer than they are priced in right now. >> fewer than three? do you think there's a chance they do anything? >> there's a chance. i think rhe inflation is accelerating. there's a lot of indication of that. >> roger, what are your own expectations given what those two gentlemen had to say? >> i don't think inflation is re-accelerating. i would be interested in what data david einhorn is looking at. i'm not seeing that. i do think it's a downside, it always has been in earlier periods of higher inflation moderating to lower inflation. that's not a surprise and it may prove as mr. cohen said, hard. really hard. to get to 2% and i think it's possible it just isn't achievable over the medium- term. my own expectation is pretty

much in line with the latest market expectations. i think as of earlier today there was a 56% chance based on markets of the first cut taking place in june and still a base case of three cuts. i think that's as logical a scenario as any. i paid a lot of attention to chairman powell's own comments and as steve said, he clearly wants to cut and he essentially brushed off the latest data as not changing their basic framework and so, absent negative data could happen tomorrow morning with job support but absent negative data that is seen as continuing and by negative i mean stronger than expected on growth, jobs, and inflation, i think that is still the most logical expectation, but if you say to me, if i can put it that way,

is the risk more likely to be fewer cuts or more likely to be more cuts, i would agree with the sentiment that i and heart assessed that the risk is fewer cuts rather than more. >> what if the last mile here is much more sticky than we thought? >> i think the fed wants to be sure that it doesn't keep the funds rate at this level too long and it's willing to take some risks in that regard and that is why i think powell wants to cut and i agree with the sentiment expressed by someone earlier on the show that might be good to get the first cut in the floor the height of the election season. but again, inflation is always -- if you look at the episode in the late 70s and early 80s, the last time we had really high inflation, although it was higher than this then, it proved really hard until we got

the recession and then it was a deep one, to bring it down to the fed's target so it shouldn't surprise anybody that it's going to be hard to get from three to 3.2% which is where we are now on most measures to 2%. whether or not we really need to get to 2% i think is debatable. debatable in the sense that as to whether it is really required for economic stability and a debate as to whether the fed will require it also from its own point of view. so, it will be hard. >> do you want to weigh in on what kind of wildcards you feel gop politics are at this moment? >> i think it's a big wildcard. if you want to be a little pessimistic, you see escalation between iran and israel. the israeli airstrike on the

compound in syria where several of the iranian military leadership were located in the field, benjamin netanyahu statement even today, that israel intends to take action against iran, if you want to be pessimistic you see very little standing decree where we are right now and a wider conflict in the middle east. yes, most of the powers in the middle east other than iran and other than israel do not want that, but it is quite a palpable risk, which is why oil prices are much higher. wti was at 86 when i looked at it earlier today, that reflects the latest take on that risk, so i think geopolitical risk is really high especially there. >> do both of these --

>> taiwan and ukraine in the background are important but that is where the acute risk is right now. >> do you feel as though both of these variables, be it uncertainty around the fed and rates and now this may be newly -- this new geopolitical flashpoint scenario that we have to get our arms around, are both going to weigh on the possibility of the deal market reopening? you do run what has been termed -- north for your advisory business so you obviously have a dog in that fight. how does that impact your principal business? >> let me make a comment about the difference between the two risks. i think the word risk is an odd one when you talk about the fed and the path forward because six months from now or nine months from now it's not going

to affect or have affected the world very much whether the fed cuts three times in 2024 or two times and whether some of these cuts slip over into 2025. that's not going to make a lot of difference in the medium and long term. on the other hand, the geopolitical risk is much more acute and much more dangerous. the market debates every minute the outlook for the very short- term and the fed plays a central role in that, but it's just an inherently very short- term debate without particularly large -- medium or long term effects even though day to day changes are important for any investor. i just think the two risks are very different. in terms of the market, 2024 is so far better than 2023 was. all of the data on transaction flow indicates that. it is not the difference between night and day though. the broader market seems to be

referring to stock prices and an even better dynamic in 2025 we will see. as to whether -- i don't think wherever the fed goes, very short-term as i just alluded to, is going to have any impact in particular on the deal market. i think the deal market inherently affects longer-term factors than that. and on the other hand, politics if it goes the wrong way and there's a real conflagration, that could put a chill into the deal market although probably not over the longer-term. >> grateful for those insights. roger, thank you and we will talk to you soon. that is roger altman joining us. up next, capital wealth kevin simpson. why he is selling his stock. he will tell us why he is selling and what he is buying

instead. we are keeping a close eye on the market selloff. we are at session lows with less than 30 seconds to go in the session. we are coming right back.

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welcome back. we have a reversal on our hands and not a good one if you are bullish this market. there's the s&p down by 1%. session lows. dhows below its 50 day for the first time since november 2nd. all s&p sectors negative to start the second quarter. our next guest is still banking on the bull coast -- case and is banking on his portfolio. it's good to see you. give me a thought on this market before we go specific. >> we are seeing the selloff which is a normal course of market behavior. if you look at the first quarter and you go back to the october 27 lows, the s&p was up 30% in almost five months without any abatement and i think that is something even the uninitiated -- you don't

have to be an expert in market history to know the stock market is not going to perform like that forever. i think the bullish case is still intact but if we get a five or 8% pullback i'm definitely going to be a buyer here and i would encourage viewers and investors to do the same. >> we teased today by saying you sold your stock of almost 10 years . >> we've owned johnson & johnson for almost 10 years. but we were out of the position for a very short period of time. we know -- has been hanging over them for a long time. that's nothing new but as you look at the pipeline for new tier one drugs, there's not much there to get excited about so we have a rules-based process. if we see a stock that is underperforming, we will exit the position for that relative performance and that's all that was here. rules-based process. we like johnson & johnson that the stock price does not

perform. we look at that chart and it's through the roof so we are exiting a position we've held a long time and it's hard. you sell johnson & johnson and we rotated into amgen. so you're looking over your shoulder to see how these fare in the short and intermediate term but we like amgen because of the intermediate prospect of that type pipeline. they've got really great, tier one products. you're looking at would -- what could be 20% revenue growth this year. far better than johnson & johnson. similar in terms of their dividend payout, amgen has a stronger dividend growth which we like over the past five years and they've committed another 500 million to share buybacks which they are probably getting on sale today if they are in this market but amgen is excited about moving forward. >> are you looking to buy more dips or sell more spikes?

>> i would be a dip buyer here. this isn't a situation we think is going to be a cascading downside or a major selloff, we've been so strong for so long, 21 times forward, it's evaluation play. there is a period of time before earnings where we hang on every word from every fed to speaker. june was never the shoe and that we thought it was, nor was made. neither was march for that matter but we will get some cuts at some point. the rate cutting environment is better than a rate hiking environment. >> kevin simpson, capital wealth planning joining us. next we are tracking the biggest movers into the coast. christina is standing by with that. >> alphabet reportedly thinking about buying a softer firm and meta getting -- from wall street analysis. i have the details, next.

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less than 15 from the close. let's get back to christina for a look at the stock she's watching. >> meta getting love from wall street this week. increased ad revenue and the popularity of search engine reels. they bet the stock sells $60 upside trailing today and --

based on advertising perception and high social media engagement. shares of online marketing firm hub spot jumping 5%. reuters report their google parent company alphabet is offering to buy it. if the offer goes through this would be alphabets largest purchase considering hub spot has a market cap of $33 billion. neither company has commented. >> thank you. appreciate it. we are all over the selloff tohe close here. we are continuing to move lower here as we head toward the bells. we will be right back. next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go.

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we are in the closing bell market zone now. cnbc senior markets commentator mike sent holy here to break down these crucial moments. plus, pippa stevens on the spike in oil prices. pretty dramatic turn over the last couple of hours. >> it has been. there's a lot coming together all at once to a market that had been kind of doing its best to rotate away from danger and essentially stay in this uptrend. a couple things might happen today. we are close to booking the first 2% drop from a high.

it might not happen on a closing basis but we are in that vicinity. also cracked below the 20 day average. it's been this miraculous kind of net underneath the market that has managed to work. you have to be on alert for the changing character of the market in a consensus that seemed to come into april above trend economic growth, a fed that was going to ease into it stops at a market high, none of it was going to come to roost. maybe we got capped for a while on the upside. the s&p is back where it was a month ago. so nothing too much has necessarily changed about the important stuff. companies are largely out of the market buyback wise because they are in the earnings window, so i think you have to be aware that you should've expected some turbulence. this is nothing at this point. we are doing it from a higher level than i thought we were going to get to but there you have it in terms of tactical market. we are a little more on edge than we were with the vix above 16 and people trying to sort

out what we want from the economic data. >> looking at sectors that some may have deemed the most fragile or susceptible to a pullback like chips which have ripped and you're looking at some of these declines today which are pretty big. amd near 8%, nvidia is off and some of the names we've been mentioning on numerous occasions as outliers to the upside or today . >> a lot of the winners are getting sold hard such as uber which is in that category. it all makes sense in terms of what people are trimming back. the bigger question is, you do still have the benefit of the doubt of how strong and broad the rally was off the lows. it's just a matter of, did you use up a lot of that fuel in the short term? >> you do also have the dip buyers. they are not gone, just because there's a little turbulence

over the 20 40 48 or 72 hours here. kevin simpson suggested he would be buying on the dip. -- sat next to you 54 minutes ago and said he is still bullish. >> they are probably not in any hurry, what you do lose in these moments is the automated dip by. it's like vix ticked above 15, time to buy s&p futures because we've always had a little bit of a seesaw working. so once those equations start to come up with the wrong answers, then it's a matter of finding where you have buyers with conviction so sometimes the market has to move the price farther to get to those buyers with conviction if it's not this automatic self- correcting trend in the market. pretty interesting reversal in the energy market, pippa stevens, which you watch very closely. crude oil and 87 are getting closer to it.

>> wci did spike above $80 as tensions rise in the east. trends settling above $90 for the first time since october. the first time president joe biden warned netanyahu that strikes against aid workers and humanitarian efforts in gaza are unacceptable and the jerusalem post reporting that embassies had been put on high alert after iran vowed retaliation following the missile strike on its consulate in damascus. all of this renewing fears around supply disruptions in the region and as rbc put it, the response could be more forceful than the previous retaliatory actions and this all comes as ukraine is also ramping up its attacks on russian oil refineries so, for so long oil was stuck in a range since supply was disrupted but now there are growing fears that oil might come off the market which is why we are seeing prices rise. >> how good of a problem would $100 barrel oil be?

>> short-term it would probably be a problem and i think the reason it becomes a problem is not just inflation numbers. it's because it does restrain growth. it's not like we have the most energy intensive economy the way we use two or anything like that and as i said an hour ago, if you needed to set your preferences for why the market panics a little bit, geopolitical worry is a good one, because almost always it's not the thing that sticks. usually you can kind of accommodate or people flinch before you get any real conflict. let's hope that's the case here. but oil is definitely moving in the wrong way for the wrong reasons in the very short term. it's not make or break. we were above 100 a couple years ago and it didn't really undercut the economy in a big way. i do think the whole -- we don't want to see growth falter.

services was amiss yesterday even though people took heart in the prices paid going down. consumer companies are not telling you happy stories right now. we are seeing the manufacturing side pick up and people are embracing the highs in manufacturing as if it's early cycle again but it's not as clear as that, so that is why with evaluations where they are, with people having already gotten equity exposures higher, it's time for a break and a little bit of a reset. >> thanks to pippa stevens covering oil for us on a big day. we are down across the curve in yields which just plays to that flight to safety. >> they are modest moves versus yesterday's close versus where we were a week ago, but directionally it does show you that there was this kind of quick rush for a bid in bonds and that is sort of telling you that you are a little bit removed from the fed speak right now, i don't think the fed knows where it's going so they can't tell you where they are going. it's not like they are hiding

the actual plan it's just we have to see how inflation comes through the next two months. they have to get the desired cut in by the middle of the year and we can hope that the economy gets it but doesn't need it. that is sort of the underlying premise of a lot of what we see in the market. >> one of those rare days where you see rates moving lower and the russell moving lower too which is down by more than 1%. it goes to what you are saying about concerns about the economy and geopolitics playing a role in all of that. >> interestingly, not underperforming actually. >> it's pretty evenhanded in terms of the majors and the russell. everything is off by a little bit but we are going to end this day near the lows of the session. >> it looks like we will probably just about get to the 2% drop from the highs. everyone has said this year started in the fashion of some of the strongest loans filed

here on record. a 2% dip does not negate that. it still is one of the stronger markets we've seen in a while so we will see how it digests this first thing tomorrow morning. >> we will see you tomorrow, obviously. we will pick up where we left off. geopolitics and -- stocking -- welcome to closing bell over time. i'm jon fortt with morgan . >> minneapolis fed president kashkari. healthcare and tech leading the selloff but every sector in the red this afternoon.

that's g