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welcome to "street signs." we are live from the shores of lake como and the london studio the. here are the headlines. dow notches its worst day in more than a year as fed officials push back on rate cut expectations. >> if we continue to see inflation moving sideways, that makes me question to do the rate cuts at all. the report coming into view with the payroll growth to slide in the region of 200,000, but the chief economic adviser mohamed el-erian tells me the numbers are not everything. >> this fed is overly data dependent and turned into a play-by-play commentator. the fed should be exstrategic. and the u.s. secretary janet

yellen calls out chinese overcapacity to the audience, but states the importance of keeping relations running with the world's second largest economy. >> president biden and i firmly reject the idea that the united states should decouple from china. a full economic separation is neither practical nor desirable as the u.s. and china have aff affirmed. and samsung is looking for a tenfold increase in the first quarter profit amid the rebound of gold and chip prices. good morning. we have to start the show looking at the equity session. we have been trading in europe

for over an hour and look at it. we have the stoxx 600 currently trading down by more than 1%. this matters. it is a significant move. there's a lot happening. we have a lot of concerns when itgeopolitics, but we are digesting hawkish comments from members of the federal rehe se serve. i want to show you the divide in europe to understand what we are looking at when we think about the individual boards. we had seen actually a few pockets of green yesterday during the session, but at this stage, it is clearly a negative rhe rhetoric. the ftse 100 is down by 1%. more significant moves over in francis we and in germany. the two markets are down 1%. 1.2% i should say. of course, a lot of concerns

here with geopolitics, but also with the hawkish comments from central bank officials stateside. i also want to take a look at the sector to understand the narrative better here. actually, earlier in the session, we had one sector in the green which was oil and gas. that is now down. down just marginally. below the flat line. i want to take you to the worst performing sector at this stage. travel and leisure stocks down 1.7%. one of the reasons behind the moves has to do with thefact we are looking at higher oil prices. of course, that is putting pressure on that part of the market. looking at retail and financial services and even banks, they are down 1.5% so far in the trading session. i also want to take you to the u.s. futures.

a lot of this action actually started stateside. at this stage, the i mplied ope suggests the boards will open in the green. however, we have to acknowledge that the dow yesterday had its worst day since march of 2023. even the s&p and nasdaq ended the session down by about 1.2% for the s&p and the nasdaq down by 1.4% partially because of the kme comments from the fed officials. the fed's tom barkin said a strong labor market should give the central bank time for the clouds to clear before the rate cutting cycle. minneapolis fed president neel kashkari said if inflation data from the first two months of the

year was concerning and saying he needs to see more progress before considering cuts. kashkari also said that there is a possibility that the fed doesn't cut rates at all this year. >> in march, i had jotted down two rate cuts this year. if inflation continues to fall back toward 2% target, but if we continue to see inflation moving sideways, that would make m me question if we need to do the rate cuts at all. there is a lot of momentum in the economy right now. p tthere's a lot going on. i'm the fan of the coverage we have because it is the intersection of what we discussed here. geopolitics and markets and the economy. let's get to steve live now from lake como. good morning, steve. >> look, no doubt about it.

people say you have the plum assignment and you want to hang on to it dearly. it is a fantastic place. i think the conference brings people together in the chatham house environment about the key issues as well. i've had conversations with pivotal players and good conversations on cnbc with the chief economist here at the forum. speaking to him about whether the markets should be focused on central bank policy before rate cuts is pivot al when you consider the size of the balance sheets. this is the comments from richard koo. >> raise interest rates or squeeze the availability of reserves. paul volcker, whom i worked under many years ago, and apparently the hero for mr. jay

powell, actually used the second one. he squeezed availability of reserves. banks didn't have much reserves. they scrambled and the federal funds rate went to 22% and killed the economy and finflatin and in that order. this time around, chairman powell doesn't have that option because of the reserves in the banking system. the reserves is more than 1,700 times larger than before the lee lehman crisis. here you try to tighten with this tool and you have to rehe m move the 3.2 trillion first. before you have the grip on the situation. you cannot do that overnight. that means all of the efforts on monetary tightening were on interest rates because you

cannot use the other tool. >> we hear a lot of words on cnbc. it goes with the territory. listen to what richard koo just said. the amount of excess u.s. banking reserves is 1,700 times larger than it was pre-hlehman. if nothing else, take nothing away from morning programming today than that fact, that shows you why central banks in the united states and the fmoc and federal reserve has struggled to have the same impact from 500 basis points plus of rate hikes in the last couple of years. doesn't that answer a lot of questions for all of us out there? i'm not saying it is good or bad. i'm not valuing judgment. 1,700 times more u.s. banking excess reserves shows you why

central bank policies have a few hills to climb? i'll leave that question there. i caught up with the allianz chief adviser mohamed el-erian and asked why europe is lagging behind the u.s. in terms of investment. >> part of it is the structure. harder to take region wide decisions here than in the u.s. part of it is the legacy of how much you have to deal with over the problems of the past. the u.s. is an exception. the u.s. could not pull the rest of the world up. they can pull down the rest of the politics. the other issue, the elephant in the room, is are we on the verge of another fed policy mistake. people are worried about that. >> you wrote about the last policy mistake during that policy mistake. in my uneducated way, i echoed

your comments, mohamed. the transitional argument has been settled for now. what is the next potential policy mistake from the federal reserve? >> the fundamental problem we have is rather than be strategic, this fed is overly data dependent and turned into a play-by-play commentator. that is not the role of the fed. the fed should be strategic and provide an anchor and stabilizer. they may end up being too tight. the comments we heard yesterday that understandably roiled the markets are an example of overreacting to data. you should have a view of the economy. >> i don't want to overanalyze

the comments. mohamed el-erian saying do we need to hear every single time from every single poll saicymak from every bit of data in the united states? it is a pertinent question with the fmoc members. barkin, kashkari, powell and others every single time we get a bit of data. is that providing cohesion for the markets? it is hard to argue it is. we spoke to the chief economist who said the recent comments have not changed his base case view of the fed rate path. >> optimistic and i'm optimistic to combine that strong growth with the inflation coming down. we think we will be at 2.4% by the end of the year for core pce inflation and back to 2% next y year. in that environment, i would expect some rate cuts based on what chair powell and other fed

officials have said. that's more uncertain. the timing of that will depend on near-term data on the reaction from the fed. i'm not all on the forecast if we get cuts. we get three with the dot plot. none would be surprising. >> the fed is in the enviable position of strong growth last year and a couple percent hand handled now. we are in expansion territory. it is on the flat line. robert's conversation has gone from uber holder, but it is best to go with the central banks to provide cover. the europeans need to go more aggressively and quicker. that is what the bond market is

saying. the boom at 2.3% and the ten-year treasury at 4.311. europe needs to go sooner rather than later, yeah? >> the keys for cutting in europe is stronger. i would say both in the euro area and in the uk because you have not just the declining inflation, but, as you say, you also have a pretty soft economy. how much softer than in the u.s. depends on where you look. on gdp, the gap is big. on labor market performance, another measure of reelectivity is important. i think the case for cutting and consecutively like cutting in june and at subsequent meetings is quite strong. we will find out if the governing council of the ecb will do cuts. it is our call.

it is fairly clear they are converging to a june starting point and how quickly they go we have to see. we will see they will move relatively quickly. >> i think the three gentlemen you heard for encapsulated the argument we are having in the world where we don't want to make the same mistakes in the arthur burns era. i.e., the central bank policy is tight.s appears to be restrictive. there are concerns in the recession environment in europe and because the victory has been won on inflation, you cut rates. on the other side of the coin is the fact that there is so much excess reserves in the systems as well that if the fed were to move too quickly, would they reignite animal spirits? where europe sits compared with the united states, does europe need to go further? we are not seeing the same kind

of growth. you see the same conversations we are having here in cernobbio. you speak about the fiscal side. we never mentioned the fiscal deficit is run on both sides of the atlantic, whoever the leadership is, they have l less leeway to spend with the geopolitical problems, that is why we come here to get the full argument. silvia, back to you. >> steve, we will have more conversations later on in the show. coming up on the show, we will be speaking about president biden who has toughened his stance on israel as global concerns grow over the country's actions in gaza. we'll be back after this break. switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. take full control of your brand with your own custom store. scale faster with tools

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welcome back to the show. let's look at what's happening on the geopolitical front. israel will open two new routes into gaza after president biden informed benjamin netanyahu that

the policy will hoing inge on t assessment on the israeli action over to protecting aid workers. two aides told cnbc this was the issue. this was the first contact with netanyahu after seven aid workers were killed this strikes which was a mistake. the frosty relations is the latest which threaten instability in the region after iran vowed to retall yiate amide strikes on the embassy in dam damascus. president biden is concerned about the humanitarian situation in gaza. >> the leaders discussed the situation in gaza. the president emphasized the

strikes on humanitarian workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable. he made clear the need for israel to announce a series of specific, concrete steps to address civilian harm and humanitarian suffering and the safety of aid workers. he made clear that u.s. policy with respect to gaza will be determined by our assessment of israel's immediate action on the steps. he underscored immediate cease-fire is essential to stabilize and protect innocent civilians and urged netanyahu to conclude a deal without delay to bring the hostages home. >> now amid the geopolitical tension, let's look at what is happening when it comes to oil prices. at this stage, we have brent trading at $90 a barrel.

we have wti at $86 a barrel. what we have seen is both benchmarks settled at their highest levels since october on thursday. at the moment, we are seeing oil prices on track for the second weekly gain. given that it is friday, let's look at the performance in equity markets so far this week. at this stage, we have u.s. mar markets looking like the dow would end the week down 3%. the s&p down 2% and nasdaq down by 2%. it is not a very good start to the quarter so far when it comes to u.s. stocks. looking at european equity markets, it is a similar picture. when it comes to the week-to-date performance, we see the majority of the main boards in europe to end the week lower.

particularly the ftse mib down by 2.3%. similar moves when it comes to french equities and a little bit less of negative performance at this stage for the ftse 100. let's see how we will do when the equity session finishes in a couple of hours time. i want to look at the equity front in detail with my next guest. i have daniel morris with bnp joining us in the studio. good morning. >> good morning. >> first and foremost, i would like to get your thoughts on the reactions in the equity space so far after those hawkish comments stateside and the political tensions. how much lower could we see the equity performance go? >> i don't know if i'll haz add a guess on how far things will go. it could go quite a ways.

we're not negative on the outlook for equities. we are slightly overweight. there is always a risk and tensions. we think the fundamental outlook is supportive. we are talking about the rate cuts and when they start which is a different conversation of when we will hike. u.s. growth is still good. we like to see a bit more strength in europe. if you look at the managing indices, it is still a bit of a struggle in the manufacturing sector. all of this does suggest we think we will have gains for equities through the end of the year. >> what is your working assumption with all of the comments from fed officials? clearly, markets were getting it wrong at the start of the year pricing in six cuts. this is below the three rate cuts. i wonder what your working assumption is over what the fed

will do this year and if we will see any cuts? >> we are in the camp you get three-to-four cuts. as i pointed out with the two months, we're higher than expected in inflation data in the u.s. and to some degree in europe as well. if that goes to three months or four months, we question those cuts. if there is a risk to the outlook, it is on the rate side. that said, how much of an impact that will have? we thought we would have six or seven and now we're below three. the market hasn't suffered all that much. if it is two or three instead of three or four, should that be so bad? probably not. >> how much clarity do you think the non-farm payroll number bring to the market today? what are your expectations there? >> if you have a big surprise on the other side at 175 or 200.

especially in the hourly earnings. we are focused on the inflation picture than growth. growth is good. there are no signs of that slowing down. if payroll fell, it is unlikely. it isthe wage number that matters the most out of the data that will be released because we will read from that into what might happen with services and inflation. >> i'm wondering at this stage how reliable the data is because when it comes to non-farm payrolls, they keep getting revised. when you look at the numbers, do you still trust them? are they still a good barometer to understand what is happening in the labor market? >> i think what you have to do is appreciate there is always a range around any of the numbers. when you look at a poll, there is a margin of errors. you come to a conclusion based on that. it is an indication of the trend. if you have not so much of a skepticism, but realization this is an imprecise science.

>> also, i want to look at the upcoming u.s. election. there is no doubt there's a lot happening stateside. if we work under assumption that we may see inflationary measure from the next presidency, how do you prepare? >> well, i think certainly at some point we are now at the beginning of april. is it far away or is it close? depending on the polls indicate, if you have an alternative scenario, shall we say with the trump victory and reduction in immigration, you would imagine all things equal, that would be inflationary. then you start to think about what is the fed's reaction to that. there are different scenarios. we will have one or the other when it comes to election with different macroeconomics implications and differences in fed policy. >> i like to get your thoughts on the different speeds among

the major central banks. at the moment, the expect tatio is the ecb will cut. what does that mean for the bond market? >> i think that divergence is a new development. i think a healthy one. it was a concern previously whether or not the ecb would move ahead of the fed. what we see on growth on inflation in the u.s. and that suggests the fed could be patient. then looking at the data in the eurozone and signals from the members of the committee with the ecb suggesting at least june or not sooner. it is clear you need support for growth in the eurozone. a rate cut would help. we are encouraged that the ecb seems to understand the situation and will react to it. lower interest rates should support the economy. >> we will see the message next week. it is coming up quickly.

thank you for your time. that was daniel morris from bnp. well, coming up on the show, we have plenty more coverage out of the amborsetti forum. we will get a gauge on italy and what investment looks like and how people are feeling about the prospects over the next 12 months. we will talk to the ceo of the house. we will do that when we come back here on "street signs."

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water, your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. welcome to "street signs." we are live from the shores of lake como and the london studio. here are the headlines. european equities slide after the dow notches the worst day in more than a year as fed officials push back on rate cuts. >> if we continue to move sideways, that would make queme question whether we do the cuts at all. all eyes on the jobs report

with the view of the payroll to grow to 200,000. the chief economic adviser at a allianz, mohamed el-erian, says the numbers are not everything. >> rather than be strategic, this fed is overly data dependent and has turned into a play-by-play commentator. that's not the role of the fed. the fed should be strategic and provide a strategic anchor and stabilizer. u.s. secretary janet yellen calls out chinese overcapacity and averages the importance of keeping relations running with the world's second largest economy. >> president biden and i firmly reject the idea that the united states should decouple from china. a full economic separation is neither practical nor desirable as both the u.s. and china have

affirmed. president biden warns the israeli leader that america's continued support for the war with hamas depends on the treatment of civilians in gaza. secretary of state antony blinken says the u.s. is monitoring the situation closely. >> we welcome the steps announced by israel opening the new crossing point and having shipments go directly from the port and maximizing the route from jordan. these are positive developments, but the real test is results. very interesting looking at the impact of the two, among many issues, with one of them that the u.n. estimates it will cost $480 billion to rebuild ukraine. huge numbers. the chief economist was chatting

to me here earlier and told me the private sector activity will be essential for the robust recovery. >> it is very important to support activity in the private sector in ukraine and $1 billion of our financing last year was directed to the private sector. you need to keep firms going so that people can work and have their lives. you know, reconstruction is not just about money. it's about human capital. it is about having people in the country and people who will be there to rebuild the country. >> the managing partner and ceo of the european house and is our host here. first afternoon you will, thank you. i honestly say this is a fantastic place and i learn a lot every time i come here. thank you for that. look, you conduct a lot of

chatham house polls and ideas going on here with the mixing of ideas from all over the world. you conducted one about the impact of the wars and it is having on investment and growth in europe. share the latest findings. >> sure. thank you to you for having me here. it is a pleasure every time. we are hosting 200 of the leaders within the thanfinancia institution across europe. they judge the impact of their investments and their businesses of the two conflicts. hamas and israel and russia and ukraine. more than 50% of them judge it with little impact. not a great impact in the short term. of course, there are worries about the duration of the two conflicts and the possibility

that those conflicts spread around to other countries. that will have a great impact. in terms of immediate short term, it is very little impact. >> i find that extraordinary. i spend so much time on cnbc with the supply chain issues and the red sea and the energy issues and that is impacting the german and european manufacturing base. these are absolutely important business men and women. i take it on board. what is interesting is the view which you conducted a second poll over how they see the next 12 months. they are bullish. >> they are. 63% of them are expecting for 2024 a growth of turnover. that means the vast majority is looking with optimism to the

future. one fourth of them has declared they will grow double digit in 2024. that's a very good sign. going back to the impact of the russia and ukraine war, when we posed the same question last year, the degree of worry was higher. we compared the two polls. not necessarily exactly the same, but the executives are looking at the industry somehow. the valuation of the impact was 20 percentage points higher which means that at the very beginning, we were worried. take italy for example. we were related to russian gas supply for more than 30 billion square meters.

in ten minonths, we designed th supply chain of gas going down to 3 billion square meters from russia. the speed and flexibility and resilience of the italian ecosystem of private and public created the necessary solutions to avoid the impacts on the ply ch supply chain. >> what a stunning discuss draghi's administration was able to pull off. you and i had some stunningly spirited conversations about europe and about italy in particular over the last 15 or 20 years. we have not come close to blows, butheartily about europe and italy. the question? it is more stable than it has

been for a long time despite the concerns of the melonia government. is italy hperformance an issue which started under draghi and now picking up with melonia. do you have the concerns that these will come crashing down in italy? >> i know you like to push the negatives about the country. i need to counter react to the attacks by stressing a couple of points. last month, we reached the historical top record of number of employment with official statistics. that is creating an impact on

the economy. of course, the next generation which is the largest investment plan ever done in the history of europe with around 200 billion to be invested in the infrastructure and in the two transitions with the digital and green transitions is having an impact. the reaction to the larger and billions that the draghi government and the government before him has floated into the economy will be more than covered with growth. let's just consider the gdp stats for a moment. italy had 0.18% average compound

growth in the 20 years of 2000 to 2020. we are having a super sonic growth. >> super sonic speed of growth of 1%. i want to help you unpack that sentence. >> you need to compare that with the 20 years before. that statistic is helping somehow combine with the number of employment which is creating more money to be spent in consumption. consumption is 60% of the italian gdp. that will make it sustainable over the years and this government has two non populist decisions. draghi government was unable to deliberate. one is the fact they have stopped the so-called city

income. the super bonds, the amount of money you were talking about earlier with $130 billion. >> yes. >> it was not easy. it was not a populist decision. they did it. that was the right decision. as a matter of fact, if you look at the spread, it is the minimum of the last five years. over the german bund. for those reasons, i remain optimistic with regards to the future of europe and italy in particular. >> in terms of the broader growth trajectory of super sonic growth of 1%. has the world turned on its head that europe is suffering? northern europe had more

problems with the energy mix and it will come roaring back? >> spain is doing 2.5% growth. greece is about the same. >> super sonic. >> exactly. portugal is doing extremely well. there are different perceptions. what it is actually is under valued. that is the power and strength of the internal market. we are celebrating the 30th anniversary of the internal market creation. we are talking about an impact that we have judged with our consultants with 8% of the gdp. so, we are creating an incredible volume with internal european markets of 450 million people. a number of economic impact which is astonishing.

that is positive and under valued and under judged and not enough well communicated. it is a problem with the european commission which is not able to properly communicate the positiveness of the unity and being together. >> we have to leave it there. i want to get something straight. i'm like a worried inter milan fan. i'm not an ac fan attracted to italy. i'm worried that things are too good to be true. i'm a fan. i'm not saying i want italy to fail. i'm worried and i can't believe things are so good. >> not like west ham. >> that's another story. i'll talk about that after we speak to him later in the week. thank you very much. the managing partner of the european house. d diehard inter fan.

back to you in the student joe. >> studio. >> thank you, steve. i look forward to your panel. coming up on the show, we have hawkish fed comments as the u.s. jobs report comes into focus. we'll bring you the latest next. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

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welcome back. i want to take you to the corporate developments. the u.s. will put prisessure on the netherlands for contracts. the u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen says china is too large to export its way through rapid growth and looking to address overcapacity. speaking yesterday during her trip to china, we called for more reforms in the country and said she did not wish to see a decoupling. yellen will meet with senior

officials and raise concerns about the beijing unfair treatment of u.s. companies. our colleagues will speak to janet yellen on monday. make shoure you do not miss tha interview at 11:15 cet. samsung expect a tenfold rise in the first quarter profit as prices rebound ahead of the expec expectations. we will see u.s. jobless claims hit a record high of 221,000 and continuing claims fell slightly to 1.79 million. analysts expect job growth to slide to 200,000 from 275,000 in the previous month. i'm pleased to say we have neal

wilson with us. i was referencing what markets are expecting in the non-farm payroll today. what do you think it will bring today for investors? >> i think the market is a hope machine. it would love to see the number below 15150. i think it will be within that range. the adp numbers were 185,000. consistent, but higher than last month. i think the important thing is to focus on the wages. right now, wages year over year are 4.1% higher. that was the figure in february. we will see what it is here. i do think that the fed is -- as mohamed el-erian stated in the clip, he said they should be strategic and not data dep dependent. he is right. they will probably lower rates too slowly. i do think that is a mistake.

what we're seeing on the ground see loan restriction and credit card higher than pre-covid. mortgage rates went up again. you are starting to see defaults and delinquencies on auto loans. that is telling in america. those are the things the fed should be focused on and should be a little more ready to lower. the comments you saw yesterday from various fed officials with neel kashkari is an amazing quote. there would be none this year. i think that is not true at all. >> the thing is, he is not the only one. earlier in the week, we had raphael bostic saying that perhaps one rate cut this year. now we have kashkari saying perhaps no rate cuts. surely you have to take this seriously? >> you do. you tend to follow and focus on the fed officials.

m mester came out as dovish. i think the rate cuts, when you get too close to the election, that is another factor that has to be baked in. i think june/july, they will be. the issue is the real rates which are con s are con sstrict. pce is at 2.8%. it has been coming down. the last six months, 2.3% annualized. it is coming in. i do think that july or june time. maybe the ecb. they are inter related a bit. that is whatt the fed should be focused on. they will lower it two or three times. >> the minutes we got from the ecb suggested that they are definitely moving toward the

potential rate cut in june. the chances of seeing that next week have dissipated further. they are thinking about the june timeline. assuming that is the case and assuming you are expecting that first rate cut from the fed around the same time, what do you think the fed needs to see between now and june to take that decision of a rate cut? >> it is the wage inflation figure. that 4.1% going down. i think if they see degradation of that, that is enough to allow them to do it. if i'm a trader, i look at the pound against the euro. that is an interesting trade. the pound against the dollar is not a bad trade either. going back to the real rate issue. uk inflation rate is 3.88% . it was the same nominal rate as the u.s. those are interesting things to look at here. >> i would like to get your thoughts on the terminal rate. the expectation is we will be

looking at a higher number than what you were expecting. i have the number from loretta mester. she raised the number to 3%. i wondered where are the p implications? >> i think historically if you go back to 1970s, 5% is a nominal rate. i think we, in america, we have tremendous productivity. the number in the first quarter was really hot. 3.6% productivity rate. if productivity is higher, the no, nominal rate is higher. the a.i. revolution is real. it is very note worthy at 2% of all new job postings where 2% is going into a.i. i think the productivity means it would be just fine ultimately

to have a 4% or 3.5% or 3% rate. >> fascinating. we have to leave it there. pleasure speaking with you. neal wilson at ejf capital. i want to take you to the european markets. you can tell it is red across the board today. they are on track for a two-week low at this stage. looking stateside. it is a similar picture. we will see a little bit of green. yesterday, the dow posted the worst day since march of 2023. that is it for the show. i'm silvia amaro. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials.

“the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. psoriasis all over. okay, that's uncalled for. i couldn't get my hair done. then psoriatic arthritis. cosentyx works on both for me. people with psoriasis on the scalp have a 4 times higher risk for psoriatic arthritis. serious allergic reactions, severe skin reactions that look like eczema, and an increased risk of infections, some fatal, have occurred. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine or plan to, or if ibd symptoms develop or worsen. still workin' for me. ♪see me.♪

it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. i'm dominic chu in for frank holland. here is your "five@5." the dow coming off the worst day in a year. looking to get movement to the upside. and fed officials are throwing cold water on the interest rate cuts. the number we could see this year. and key to the rate cut path and market action today is the monthly jobs report. we walk you through the data and