it is april 5th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin. joe is out today. as andrew was talking about, yesterday was a big selloff. the dow with the worst day since march last year. more than a year ago. this morning, you are seeing some green arrows. at least at this point. the dow futures indicated up 63. s&p futures up 15. nasdaq indicated up 65 points. right now, we're on pace for our worst week since march 2023 for the dow. the s&p is on pace for its worst week since october of last year. a lot of this coming, andrew, from the fed speak swirling

around. it is not just from bostic. we will talk about that in a moment. harker er and waller and bosti. let's see where the treasury markets are standing. t ten-year yield is 4.34. we were talking about lower numbers as people thought fed cuts were imminent. minneapolis fed president neel kashkari saying rate cuts may not be needed this year if progress stops. here is his comments at the vert wal virtual event. >> if inflation continues to fall back to the 2% target. if inflation moves sideways, that would make me question if we need rate cuts at all. there is momentum in the economy

right now. >> you can see the moment when the markets took a turn after kashkari made that comment. you see later in the day where things took a turn down. all three averages at the same time. all closed down by more than 1%. by the way, philadelphia fed president harker making comments saying he thought that inflation is looking like it is not headed in the right direction or far too high at this point for them to cut. you add all of the things up and it does start to paint a picture of the idea that it is far less likely to see a cut in june. we have a programming note. jim bullard will join us to react to the jobs data. that jobs number coming at 8:30. at this point, we have a stronger jobs picture. >> he is more hawkish than dovish. it is interesting to see how he thinks about the issues and what everybody else has been saying so far. let's tell you about the

other story that smmarket sello. oil prices extending gains. brent topping $91 a barrel with wti hovering at $87. this is over rising political tensions in the middle east and crude is on track to gain more than 4% after iran vowed revenge against israel after the attack on the compound in syria. israel has not the claimed responsibility for the attack, but the cia warned iran that israel could retaliate in the next 48 hours. the oil market has moved on the news, but the equity market has not if you believe we are on the brink of something horrific and terrible. >> if you were looking at the european markets this morning, there was weakness in those

european markets and a lot of that was from higher oil prices. it is lufthansa and other airliness suffering from this. the question of what happens next. >> if we're in a bad place and you think it would be toppling lots of things. let's talk about jobs. it is jobs friday. this happens every month. forecasters expecting to see the fourth straight month of 200,000 job gains. unemployment rate is expected to tick down. mark your card to 3.8%. that's the number to beat, if you will. we will see where things land at 8:30. we will see how the markets reaction and we'll have instant reaction as it is happening. the culmination of the months long proxy battle with disney over trian's nelson

peltz. the two big players spoke out yesterday. this is what bob iger said after winning that proxy battle. >> clearly, shareholders care about that given what the company has been through the last few years. >> yes. >> as you expect, they care about what ends up being our top priorities strategically. they want to know about the future of espn and the streaming and how it could be profitable. they care about the quality of films and growing the parks business where we will spend $60 billion over the next ten years. >> after that interview, nelson peltz joined "sidequawk on the street" to respond. >> i hope bob can keep his promises. i hope they can do all of the things they assured us they were going to do. we will watch and wait. if they do it, they won't hear from me again. if they don't, jim, you may be seeing me on your show next year

doing this same thing again. >> shares of disney fell 1.6% in yesterday's session. now down 4% for the week. we will be speaking to disney board member michael froman in a few minutes. andrew, you said that yesterday. you don't go away quietly. >> it will continue. without him on the board, there will be continued pressure on the business with the challenges and because nelson has a particular interest. we will see whether he holds on to the stock. the bigger person to pay attention to in regards to nelson is ike. does he get rid of the shares? >> he has a big chunk. he pledged his votes to trian. >> he is the nelson peltz proxy vote. i don't want to say peltz is a front. if you understand what was

happening there. if ike still owns his shares, maybe they will try this all over again. clearly, it wasn't a winning strategy. you have to see where disney will be a year from now. >> when you say where disney is, it is where the stock is and the stock has been up 30% year to date which is why iger was able to maintain control on what happened. nelson went away. peltz went away the first time when iger came in because the stock popped on that news. nelson came on with jim and said all is good. we're out of here. i think watch the stock closely on that and it tells you what happens next. let's talk about this. a small activist hedge fund seeking to force blackrock to bar lring larry fink from servi as chairman and ceo. they are seeking an overhaul of the board. this is not the first time they

have gone down this road. accusing it of taking i inconsistent approaches. the proposal is not in the shareholders' best interest and having fink in both roles is the most effective for the board. the bluebell stake is likely less than .01%. i still think there needs to be a threshold rule that the s.e.c. puts in place. i know we want to make -- on one side, you want it more democratic. i understand that argument. on the other side, you know, it is hard to have a vote if you are at that level. then the distraction. >> how much? >> .01. >> larry fink is the largest shareholder. >> it is a $120 billion company.

you will not find others. this is a big governance question. we have seen this as chairman and ceo in the same role. i believe a majority now of fortune 100 is both. if you are outside of that, it's not. >> he's the largest shareholder in the company. owns more shares than they do. >> of course. >> i believe in democracy, but there is a thing of corporate gap taking things too far and taking focus off what happens. >> some people think nelson peltz is a gad fly. u.s. army corps of engineers is looking to open a new channel in the port of baltimore. the main channel has been blocked by the cargo ship

colliding with the francis scott key bridge. the army is looking to restore access by the end of may. president biden will be meeting with local officials in baltimore today and reviewing the wreckage of the bridge. coming up in the 8:00 hour, we will speak to the maryland governor wes moore about the efforts to reopen the waterway. coming up, more on "squawk box," michael froman was the target of the activist campaign over the proxy fight with disney. we will talk with him next. you don't want to miss this interview. the countdown is on to the march employment report. we will have predictions atop of the next hour. "squawk box" is coming right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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welcome back to "squawk box." michael froman was one of the board members threatened to be replace the on the disney board. we are looking at issues here. he previously served as a u.s. trade representative. let's go to your survival first and then the survival of the world. what was it like over the past couple of months and weeks in

the process? >> i think if there is is a silver lining to these processes, it gives you an opportunity as board members and senior management to spend time with investors and hear from them and their interests and concerns and have a good dialogue with them. it was constructive in that regard. it was a distraction for the senior management and from the priorities the company has to execute on and now they can get back to that. >> what was your reaction to nelson peltz's comments yesterday and the idea he may not be going away. we talked about it on the broadcast and several weeks. even in a moment of winning, if you will, that there is a possibility that this isn't really over. >> i think the company is focused on executing the strategic priorities. the company is going through a transformation. bob iger is dealing with streaming and sports and the parks. i think right now, it is focused on that.

>> your expectation with ike pearlmutter sells his shares? do you think nelson walks away and sells his shares? >> all we can do is focus on the ex strategic priorities. >> what did you hear? what are the shareholder concerns? >> shareholders wanted to talk about the streaming business and how to get to profitability. bob laid out the strategies. wanted to talk about the allocation of capital and ex-expand the parks and cruise line. he wanted to talk about the succession. we have the committee where both have gone through successful ceo transitions. it gave reassurance to the

shareholders. >> let's pivot to the middle east. >> it is important. >> it is important. we are all talking about the price of crude going up on the back of what iran may or may not do. from your vantage point at 30,000 feet, where are we and how close are we from something terrible we have had? >> i think we have been concerned since october 7th that this could expand to the bigger regional conflict. there have been attacks by the proxies from hezbollah and lebanon into israel and iraq and syria. the houthi from yemen as well. the concern right now is with the attack in damascus on the leadership, iran is threatening to take retaliatory reaction. is it releasing further hezbollah or attacking

diplomatic sites or attacking soft sites of the jewish communities around the world like argentina several years ago. that is the concern right now. on the other side, of course, the most immediate concern is getting humanitarian said into gaza and as israel brings on the campaign, they he are doing so in the way that spares civilians. >> that is the political issue in the united states. there is now a clear divide or appears to be a clear divide between the biden administration and netanyahu in terms of how they are going about this and how it may change or not the relationship. >> i think the biden administration has been saying for some time and urging israel for some time to further allow humanitarian aid into gasza and take the civilian concerns more seriously than they do. they have been frustrated by the netanyahu failure to do that or what they perceive to be his

failure. you have to step back. you have 100 hostages in gaza and hamas is fighting this war within civilian populations or underneath in civilian tunnels. what is happening in the last 48 hours or so, the biden administration lost netanyahu. they have opened the crossing in the north and bringing in more aid through the port in israel near gaza and hopefully there will be more dialogue with the israelis how they intend to protect civilians as they go to rafah. >> the future of netanyahu? >> it is hard to say from the outside. the israeli politics is compcompcomplex. he has control over the party. the call is for elections in september. if he can put together a coalition that would be sustainable at this time remains to be seen. there is always the risk that

outside pressure, including from the friend like the united states, consolidate support behind netanyahu. >> that is where i was going. is there a possibility there is a genuine divide with the united states and israel? the special relationship that exists or has existed for so long is broken and it is irreparable? >> stop fsupplying? >> i don't think it is broken. as you recall, this week sees planes and ammunitions as we call on israel to change the calls in gaza. there is a lot of support for israeli security. israel needs secure borders. it is not sustainable they moved 75,000 people from the north and 200,000 people from the south and they can't occupy their own territory as a sovereign country. >> can i throw russia and china into the mix of this situation?

janet yellen is going to china. >> she's there. >> she's there. she's going to be pushing them on the relationship with russia and iran. do we have any influence? do you think china or does china's take on what is happening here? >> china is very good at following its national interests narrowly defined. i think what secretary yellen and the biden administration has been trying to do is underscore for china just how much is at stake for china in peace and stability in the middle east and for the ukraine war to be brought to a successful end. >> yellen is already saying we don't want to decouple. it was wrapped in pretty tough talk of a trade relationship with us and it needs to be an equitable one. which one of those messages does china hear more loudly? >> i think it does matter.

i think those are not irreparable messages. goods that are not supporting their military or intelligence capabilities. we are still concerned about the build up of over capacity of electric vehicles and clean energy equipment that could disrupt the global markets and undermine our ability to participate. >> they don't like being told what to do. >> no country does. they benefitted enormously from a benign international environment that allowed them to grow the way they have grown. that environment is changing. i think they are beginning to realize that all of the reaction from the u.s. and europe and japan and korea and other countries is having a negative effect. >> i don't know if it is that or they are in the position the economy is not as strong as they

cannot be as tstrident. >> the traditional way to get out of the problem not available if u.s. and europe closes the market. that is at risk. we may be on the verge of a situation where we say in one sector after another, we are not willing to take chinese imports regardless of the wto rules. >> one last thing. are you on tiktok? >> what's that? >> are you on tiktok? >> no. >> is tiktok a chess piece in this whole little dance? >> i don't have a view on it. >> it came up in the conversation with biden and xi on the phone. i'm curious if it will come up with the yellen conversations? >> it privy of the conversations. >> ambassador froman and board member froman.

>> thank you. when we come back, the battle for financial literacy. sharon epperson has the report from the nation's classrooms next. "squawk pod" has been nominated for a webby award. charlie munger was the last interview we featured. that code will take you right to the page where you can show your suort ppfor us honoring the best of the internet each year. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back. april is financial literacy month. there's been a good deal of research on how increasing

financial education leads to sound decisions and better desug deci decisions. the question is how do you quantify the impact? we have sharon epperson with answers on that. good morning. >> good morning. becky, about two-thirds of americans are deemed financially illiterate by some reports. many high schools around the country are working to change that. i visited classrooms in the past year and talked to students and watched financial education in action. 11th graders in queens new york are honing a business idea. for a competition for young entrepreneurs. in nashville, they are learning about classroom lessons to simulate the future career. these high school students are creating a budget for the first apartment. >> play a little "price is right." >> all investing through the education classes they are

taking today. >> you need to do it when you grow up and get a job. you have to buy a car and house. >> the report finds the high school financial class is $100,000 per student. a benefit of saving regularly and reducing risk. >> when you look at what happens when the student does not get a financial class and don't understand credit scores and interest rates, they are not able to really compare the interest rates on loans and they don't understand the implications of taking on high interest rate debt. >> the share of the high school students taking the personal finance course before graduation is growing fast. from 17% in 2018 to 26% this year. to more than half by 2030 when new policies are fully implemented. these students say the class will be vap luable for personal finances and careers. >> you think that is making you more financially savvy for whatever you do going forward?

>> yes. definitely. >> taking this class and having opportunities really opens my mind to the experience and we're all having a lot of fun. >> 25 states have adopted policies that guarantee the public high school students takes a semester long finance class before graduation. in states with no requirements, many districts have their policies on providing financial literacy classes, becky. >> i'm glad to see this. this is something that is a long time coming. you could ask the question if high school is even too late? you have new jersey where they actually require this by middle school. >> absolutely. there are studies that show by the age of 12, middle school, that students have the capacity to understand some complex economic concepts. they know about brands and how to value what they want and need in those ways. there are those that say it really should begin in sixth

grade. >> it's a great thing. this is one of the classes you can probably take the most out of and get the most life lessons out of through the whole thing. >> absolutely. the reason why so many studies show that americans are financially illiterate are the managing risk and credit and falling into the traps and learning that early on is really what is beneficial. what the students i have talked about talk about is they know what it takes to get a good credit score and what they need to do and imagine being able to understand that and getting better rates on student loans and better rates on auto loans and everything they will use in terms of credit and debt. that is what is getting you to the six-figure lifetime benefit. >> you need it so much more than any other cloasses. sharon, thank you. coming up on the other side, the bill in california would allow workers to disconnect during off hours and not require

them to respond to emails from their boss. we debate this topic after this break. as we head to break, here is a look at the s&p 500 winners and losers.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box."

we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. check this out on friday morning. there are green arrows. this comes after the dow's worst performance since march last year. dow is on track for the worst week since march last year. the dow futures are indicated up 55. s&p up is 12. nasdaq is indicated up 55. we have a big jobs number coming up at 8:30. that could direct the futureses as as we head to the opening bell. the bill in the california legislation is calling for the right to disconnect. protection from the aftern hour work communication. joining us to talk about that is alan ferry. talk about california. it is saying if this bill were

to pass that a boss would not be allowed to call you after hours or send an email or expect a response during those hours unless it was pre-negotiated as part of the contracto or a unio contract. what do you think? >> andrew, i'm not surprised. we can debate it if you were a free market or oversight work force activity. there say history of erisa. there are plenty of places where government is not involved or overly intrusive. this goes to the core of something much bigger. pre-covid, the world of work had gotten so frenetic and if we didn't have covid, i believe the work environment would have broken. we were operating at 7,000 rpm.

i was saying life was work. l life happened on the way to and from work. this bill is trying to deal with the issue that work is 24/7 and leaders may not quite know how to manage that because they actually have time requirements to deliver and sometimes they are basically asking their people to be on 24/7. >> alan, let's say we're talking about white collar workers. a specific subset of the work force we're discussing here. blue-collar workers and emergency responders and others -- not that they're not covered by it, but it is a separate issue. for those thinking of going to a four-day workweek or flexible workweek at all sorts of hours which people think is a great benefit. it is no longer sitting in the office on the weekend because that is where the phone and computer are located.

you can sit online at disney and some people think they can take the call and do their work and get what is supposed to happen done. i'm not sure i understand this. this law -- maybe i understand the conceive -- >> i'm not sure that is the right word. >> gets at odds with the future of the more flexible work environment in many ways, no? >> it does contradict that. let's face it, these things are really going to be driven by the individual and their boss. there's a lot of data now p post-covid and during covid of the productivity that came from being remote and a flexible work environment. getting to work at 10:00 a.m. and getting off work from 5:00 to 7:30. people loved that. it worked for them. the only thing that is damaged by remote work is the idea of early career growth and

collaboration among colleagues. there sis a benefit of being together in the work space. i'm 100% with you. personal view, i don't know this solves anything from the legislation standpoint. it is all about leadership and the contract with the employee and their boss and how they do what they need to do and best for them and the career and organization. >> alan, the bigger question i have is what is the difference if you are a salaried worker or hourly worker? if you can't be contacted outside of these business hours, doesn't that lead to you being an hourly worker? >> that is interesting, becky. the point is it has to be somewhere between working 24/7 and working eight hours or 40 hours a week. >> agree. it is not. there are instances where employers take it too far and they expect you to be on call all hours.

there are bosses who are idiots. your solution to that is to be able to quit and walk away and say forget it. i'm not working for you. >> exactly. employees rule. that's my motto for the next 20 years. they will be committed to organizations that suit them. that's why it is all about leadership. >> alan, part of me, once i read the bill and understood it and understood effectively what they are saying is the baseline is the disconnect rule, but if you take a job and i imagine they will put it in the contract. if you sign the contract and the union signs the contract and says that's the policy. -- >> the work around is around the law. >> the baseline in california is we're not going to have a culture like that. i don't love the overreach and i don't know what it means if every state in america were to .

i imagine they will put it in the contract and that is the end of it. >> there is a work around. especially with the legislative intrusion in the free market. you are right. it is going to boil down to the contract. paper contract or an understanding between the employee and employer. this really goes to the whole point that soft skills are the future. you don't need legislation if you have good leaders and good employees that are aligned. 95% or 85% of career success is around soft skill and awareness and team work and managing. laws aside, if someone doesn't exercise those compecompetencie they will not have a great career. if a leader cannot get that out of his or her people, they will not be a highly productive leader. 85% of career success -- >> i want to talk about a.i. for

a second. you talk about soft skills. i spent three or four hours yesterday probably in a soft skills on the computer ping pong email to schedule things and reschedule things. basic stuff, to be honest with you, you could argue an assistant could do it. i imagine i will have a bot that will be doing a lot of this very soon. i hope and pray that's the case. at the same time, i wonder what it means when we have a jobs number a friday in the future. >> right. that will be where the job creation will be. just described software that you talked about. it is not a bot, but software helping with calendar. >> it was moving things around. it is what -- by the way,

managers often do this and i wonder whether bots will be managing other people or if bots are managing other bots. >> bots managing people and bots managing bots and people with other disruptive or other technology that's been in the work force since the industrial work force that will make better people. that is another debate and another call. in terms of the jobs number, above 250 is my all. >> we will hold you to it. we look forward to seeing you soon. 8:30 this morning is the payroll numbers. alan, thank you. >> that is the safe call to take given where jobs numbers have been recently? we'll see in two hours' time. when we come back, samsung's profit rebounding. the company expects a tenfold

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samsung electronics expecting first quarter operating profit to rise by 931%

year over year as chip prices rebound from the severe downturn. that was above expectations. still, the stock was actually down overnight. that was in line with the 1% drop in the broader south korean market. investors are still awaiting updates from samsung from the progress on the high-end chip business lagging behind rivals. samsung is due to release earnings details on april 30th. samsung will double the semiconductor fact prosecutor in texas to $$$40 billion. apple now laying off 7 600 employees ago to the filing in california. this s.e.c. filing did not specify which diffivision the c are coming from after that

canceled the self-driving car division. >> is that right? 931% operating profit surge? that's crazy. >> yeah. >> 931.3% to be precise. stock is down 1%. good luck meeting expectations around here. when we come back, it is final four weekend. the women's semifinals tip-off tonight and the men play tomorrow. we will talk about the big numbers behind the ticket sales and sports gambling and much more. that's next. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level moments need the next level network. (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse!

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the ncaa's march madness tournament is approaching its climax with the final four games scheduled for this weekend. those matchups feature

top-seeded uconn against fourth seeded alabama and 11th seeded nc state taking on the number one seed purdue. but it's the women's final four with iowa's caitlin clark stealing the show tonight. joining us right now, sports business journal executive editor and abe, pretty unbelievable. numbering for ratings with the women's basketball to this point, i think one of the elite eight games last weekend actually topped ratings for the final game of the world series on television. i mean, this is uncharted territory for what we've seen. >> absolutely, becky. it's so exciting, and the interest and the energy around women's basketball at the college level, unlike anything we've seen. the numbers tonight should be great for espn and then on sunday, if you do get that, that matchup that everybody's hoping for, iowa/south carolina, on sunday afternoon, you will see record viewership numbers. it's incredibly exciting, becky.

>> what does that mean just from a business perspective? now that you have these sorts of numbers. in the past, oh, women can't draw viewers why they make less, less focus on all of this. this is really changing the entire business dynamic. >> right. you're seeing it around iconic players and caitlin clark, and them go into the wnba, a huge boost for that league once drafted into that league. it's not just in women's college basketball, becky. you're seeing it at the nwsl, professional women's hockey league, volleyball as well. investment and energy in women's sports. >> glad you brought up other

players like paige beuckers. >> people are watching women's college basketball really for, for many, for the first time. very casual fans. now getting very hooked. you're going to see incredible energy in cleveland this weekend around all of these teams. you're absolutely right. it's not about one person or one player. the entire game is being elevated. >> abe, i stayed up late last night to watch the nit finals. phenomenal finish between indiana state and seton hall. down to the wire. every play back and forth the turnovers. i mean, i'm watching because my son plays basketball, but i think a lot of other people are watching because of the potential for gambling involved with this and how that has raised excitement on a lot of different levels. how has that changed sports overall? >> i think it's changed sports overall for the better. mostly. i do think, to your point, it's

driven interest. i know that's what the sports industry had hoped. that more people with stake in the games would be more engaged in the games and stick around as viewers for a longer period of time. you're seeing increased betting. in fact, when you talk about women's college basketball, i believe monday night's iowa game was the most bet women's college basketball game ever. so you're seeing handles rise. now, there's always ethical concerns and integrity concerns, and you're starting to see a few more of those. everybody is concerned where this is going. so far certainly increased interest and attention into sports. >> yeah. we've seen kids as young as 18 playing on some of these teams caught up thinking they're making a few casual bets and have really been punished harshly. the other big question is the money with the nil. it's great. i think players should be getting some share of this, but it has kind of destroyed teams. every year your entire team goes into the portal.

as fans you're not rooting for the same thing you used to anymore. what does this mean for the ncaa? i think there are serious questions what the ncaa future is. >> you nailed it. something they're spending a lot of time on to fix. it's not gone the path they thought it would, becky. they're trying to get some more framework and regulation around it. some will say it's too late. you're absolutely right. it's led to uncertainty and chaos within college sports and nobody likes it. administrators don't like it, coaches certainly don't like it. players benefit, as she should. everybody believes name, image and likeness in concept is a good concept. it's just the execution has been, i think, mismanaged. now the ncaa is trying to get their arms aroundbetter maybe through congress or their own efforts. it we'll see it continuing to evolve. >> quickly. a pick for tonight with women's? you think uconn? you think iowa state? >> not picking, becky.

home for chlose games and everybody watches. it's going to be historic and very special. >> thanks for joining us today. >> have great day. >> you, too. coming up. we are counting down to number of the morning. march employment report. predictions next and then the big number at 8:30. after the report, instant reaction. you won't want to miss this, from former st. louis fed president james bullard taking us inside the world of the fed and the fed heads. all that and more at "squawk box" rolls on. two big hours ahead. nt? it's truffle season! ah that's okay... never enough truffles. how much are they? it's a lot. oh okay - i'm good, that - it's like a priceless piece of art. enjoy. or when they sell you what they want? yeah. the more we understand you, the better we can help you. that's what u.s. bank is for. huge relief. yeah... ♪

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a big day for investors. market action today when the march job's report is released. coming up in an hour and a half.

walk you up to that critical data. the market's tough start to the second quarter intensifying with the dow coming of you its worse day in a year. the jobs report. see if it continues. plus a recent report in the atlantic highlighting the culture war taking place at stanford university. the student who wrote the investigative piece joins us to talk about how extremism on campus is impacting students. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cn live at the market site in sometimes square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick. joe is off today. look at futures. a lot likely to change potentially. we'll see. when we get the jobs number

happening at 8:30 a.m. this morning. right now the dow looks like it would open up about 75, 74 points higher. nasdaq up 66, 67 points. s&p 500 up 16 points. this could shift around. ten-year note, 10.332. should show oil boards quick, because that's actually been "the" big metric, if you will, that i think moved certain things around, given some of the concerns for a lot of the concerns taking place in the middle east. i don't know if we can flip the board around and show you wti crude, where it's sitting just right now. showing you the european markets, which actually affected by this. german dax specifically 1.42, down. italy down even more. i'm told that we will get to wti in a little bit, but -- >> brent sitting just above $95 a barrel. >> moved material. >> oil up over the last four days. people are starting to pay attention to it. >> here we have it.

8676. as you said, brent, $90.99. meantime, talk about jobs and the march report. as we said an hour and a half away. one and only steve liesman gracing us with his presence. right here at the table with a preview of what investors and economists are expecting. sir? >> thank you, andrew. >> hot or cold? >> hot is a possibility here. markets are awaiting a potentially pivotal jobs report. digesting those comments from the fed president, fed is may fought knee to cut rates at all. non-farm payrolls 200k. upside possibility there given the inputs i've read. seeing until now. versus 275. slowdown but still a high rate here. unemployment rate seen ticking down. perhaps it was pushed higher by an anomaly last month with teenage unemployment rate. average hourly ly rate 0.3. that's up. year over year declines because

of base effects there. fed says less focused and payroll growth and how many jobs the economy can create without causing inflation because of a boost to immigration. the dls data, 3.3 million among foreign born population the past two years. native population declined. another chart. labor tightness, fed officials think is key to sticky service inflation, since wages are the leading cost in that sector. inflation is, of course, key to the outlet for fed rate cuts with min ap plit fed president neel kashkari yesterday saying if inflation progress stalls fed may not need to cut at all. >> in march i had jotted down two rate cuts this year. inflation if it continues to fall back towards our 2% target. but if we continue to see inflation moving sideways, that would make me question whether we needed to do those rate cuts at all. there's a lot of momentum in the

economy right now. >> sounds radical, but listen. kashkari's comments out loud really unspoken by several other fed officials. they've said their outlook for rate cut rests entirely on their forecast for low inflation. to say no improvement in current levels call those cuts into question. just didn't say it. watch wages today, participation rate and revisions from prior to if fed is easing inflation pressure. >> really good. add it up. keeping track. kashkari, bostic on our air cuts aren't oming. waller before that. add it up. a more hawkish tone heard across the board. >> well, look -- powell and the fed spoke on, in the meeting. right? market said all dovish.

i is the there trying to pound the table. look at the forecasts. they moved to the right. got more hawkish as a committee. three cuts hung on by the hair of their chinny-chin-chin by a single vote. people got, like, went out of their minds crazy. look, there are more hawkish officials. everybody's seen cuts. nobody's saying when. few people are saying how much, and all of that is in the question. >> the most dovish is powell with what he said the other day. >> what made you -- what -- >> a line he said that surprised me just the idea that it looks like we still could be -- that the higherinflation numbers haven't deterred them, i think. something along those lines. >> a refrain from others as well. that it's a bump along the road. really depends how you look at it. right? i mean, goolsbee one of the more dovish folks out there, i would say, said, hey, i've got to hi about this. whether that's a bump along the road or not. i'm trying to remember, see this

as a bump in the road and we're okay. they're not taking action yet based upon that conclusion. in other words, not saying, it was a bump. i'm cutting next month. what they're saying is, it was a bump, maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. take that into factoring in whether or not -- waller even said that -- it's changed his view. said you know what? i got to start -- maybe a couple more months is all i need of assu assurance. >> what did he say? >> no rush. i wish we had the wall of yesterday. repeating of the refrain is musical in the sense of,we'll take our time or whatever -- you know, it's all data dependent. keep hitting these points. the only thing kashkari did was say out loud what is implicit in what every other, not every other but most fed officials saying i don't think they're going to cut with 2.8 be consistent over the next several months. >> stay here. bringing in another voice.

head of u.s. -- something- >> thanks, becky. yeah. my title -- >> just call you the economics expert. the guru. >> i run our whole business now for the u.s. so, yes. >> hait is your actual title. >> yes. >> something left out. but congratulations. >> thanks, becky. >> weigh in on this. what do you think about all of this? >> yeah. so i think it's interesting. i completely agree with what steve is saying. clearly, if inflation doesn't continue to move lower, the fed isn't going to cut. they've got a 2% target. there's always talk about, oh, is there tolerance increased? would they be comfortable if only 2.3 or 2.5. bottom line consistently need to get to that 2% target. if not making progress i think

they'll cut even taking into account you need to cut before you get to the target. i think we've moved to a point now where the fed is actually going to be basing decisions more on actual progress towards inflation than just forecast progress towards inflation, given the fact these last couple of numbers surprised everyone, including ourselves, by being firmer than expected. >> would you be shocked if there were one or no rate cuts this year? >> well, i would be, because we have a forecast that does have the inflation rate coming down, hitting 2% by end of the year. we also have an economy that is weakening moving through 2024. we actually have some negative expectations by end of the year. so in that scenario we would have the fed cutting. what you're really saying is, would i be surprised if inflation made no further progress or the economy showed such continued, even upwrdard

momentum that the fed didn't cut this year or very little that would be surprising to me. i admit, higher inflation numbers earlier in the year, not yun common. it's happened. higher inflation numbers and ongoing resilience of the economy has taken us by surprise. >> michelle, can you help us read what we're going to see at 8:30? my take has been, influencing t

for inflation? >> exactly right. if you have faster growth, strocker payroll gains without, the unemployment doesn't go up without labor getting tighter. >> help -- >> go ahead. >> help me out with one thing. you would think if these were immigrants into the country just came in or perhaps illegally, some other means other than than a visa to work, would put downward pressure on wages. thought about that at all? >> exactly what you would expect. again, it's the balancebetween supply and demand in what we're continuing to see in the payroll numbers is healthier demand as well. that's what's keeping the unemployment rate steady. also, the wage numbers do tend to act with a bit of a lag. >> uh-huh. >> the question is, are we

getting so much immigration that it's exceeding demand so that supply is exceeding demand for labor. that would put downward pressure on wages. that doesn't seem to be happening yet. again, because it doesn't seem as if the companies have pulled back so much on demand. the economy doesn't seem to have slowed so much that the demand for labor is actually being, you know, overcome by the amount of supply. so wages have not really -- they're moving lower. we think this morning's year over year print is going to be probably the lowest since summer of 2021. a 3/10 gain -- >> 3/10 gain month over month, looking year over year 4.1% is not moving lower. the point, people may get into the it. lower increases than used to seeing but still increases's what does that mean for inflation? >> always go up. >> that's it. >> they go up and it is trending

down, as i said. that 4.1 would be almost a three-year, a little less than a three-year low. but 4.1, is that consistent with the 2% inflation target? that's probably what the fed is looking at. i would say, no. >> doing 2% productivity and you have 3% inflation and you're only getting wage gains of 4%, wages aren't driving inflation at all. >> so 4.1% -- >> i don't think -- >> would be a neutral? >> the truck with this discussion, becky, let's pick a productivity number and argue over it. right? i don't know what that number is and thinking a lot about what the -- what the right underlying number is for productivity. >> not just neutral rates. figure neutral, wage inflation. >> plus productivity gives you the number, whether or not wages are driving inflation. so long as some of inflation productivity is -- greater than the -- the wage gains, it's not

inflationary. >> okay. >> steve, you make a really good point. quick, on productivity. the other story here. >> yeah. >> the fed does see a better productivity outlook. >> michelle, quickly. if wage inflation is a little hotter if it's 0.4% month over month, would that concern you? or is 1/10 a percent not a big deal here? >> i'm not so concerned about the wage numbers being a tenth or two off. what's happening next week's cpi numbers front and center. wage numbers today, if they're hotter, will put even more attention on how the cpi numbers look next week, to be honest, what people are waiting for more than even this morning's jobs report. >> okay. good tip. michelle, thank you very much. and steve, see you a little later. coming up, alan patricof with us, and later, maryland

governor wes moor our guest. latest on the francis scott key bridge and battle in washington over funding for its rebuilding. "squawk box" will be right back.

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box." talk tech and a.i. welcome alan patricof primetime partners to the table. a great venture capitalist in the world. we're all trying to figure out what to make of a.i. and where investments opportunity really are, or maybe really aren't. what do you think? >> i've been through these circles many times and i'm in the camp of "be cautious." seen the run-ups. everybody excited. valuations driven up in the private market when there's no basis for actually determining what something is worth, and so a lot of people are going to

make money but there are going to be a lot of unhappy faces. >> sort of, are re in an a.i. bubble -- warren buffett. >> he doesn't think so. >> then are we in 1996? curious, if you were to try to put a date on where this is, comparable to some time in history when there's been a major inflection point in technology, is this that? >> i think this is the most significant inflection point. and andrew i've been through every one of them. pc revolution, cell phone, internet revolution. nothing is comparable to this, because it affects every spaspe of business. even our area. i'm selfish telling you i focus on now investing in anything, product services, technologies, experiences for older people, and when a.i. became so hot last year, particularly, i said, you know, where's it going to affect our audience? because i couldn't see it right away, but already i can see it.

i mean, i can tell you four, five companies that we're in that i -- i wouldn't have thought had, you know, this had any implication. give you one. saferide, does what they call non-emergency transportation, an emt. picking up people. sounds like uber or lyft, which, by the way, always tell you one mint and their seven minutes. they can't afford it and have to be exactly on time. deliver you to a doctor or hospital on time. not an ambulance. they're not ambulances. pick you up exactly the right -- and have a 99% reliability. how do they do it? with very sophisticated internal technology. >> let me ask you this. when you think about making an investment in a.i. today, there's these large language models. call it three, four large language models. i can't figure out over time agency they get better, seems to me there's a likelihood a lot of the stuff they can do will usurp

some of the apps and other kinds of software being developed to sort of serve them. meaning that as -- as the large language models get better, they may actually be able to do what everybody else is trying to build, which would then sort of upend the entire thing? there's no moat to any of these businesses. your business you mentioned seemed would likely have a moat. a physical component to it? >> a.i. will have, in my opinion, where i would put my bets specifically in a.i., a.i. where it's applications in particular industries, not necessarily the platforms. you know, chatgpt obviously has taken over the world. including me. probably both of you, but i worry how many more -- of course they have share of mind at the moment, but this is ubiquitous,

of course. everything -- i'm more interested as a long-term investors in how an a.i. application affects the medical industry or the -- >> ma mkes it more productive. are we on the verge of a supercharged productivity? >> absolutely dramatic. overwhelming. i mean, and i see it. i say all the areas -- another company. sheer health i'm promoting telling you what they're doing. they are -- never thought of it. we all get our medical bills and never know what we got and why we got it and why we have co-pays. >> frustrating. >> using a.i. they've developed able to take your medical bills actually finding out where you got the right charge, where you didn't, and recover. >> can i tell you before you get services done usually it's six months after. >> if you know what they're charge you, yes. absolutely they should. they know what services you get they should be able to tell you the appropriate for whatever coverage you've got.

i mean, there's where the applications are, and using a.i. will accelerate things. i mean, you know, get answers so much faster and it's going to put a lot of people out of work but it will employ new people. >> a different one. retirement. you are hardly retiring. you're 89 years old. am i right? >> i'll be 90 this year. my kids are trying to figure out how to celebrate. >> just got married again. remarkable. you are not in the retirement, you're never going to retire but a lot of people have to retire at some point in the life. >> you read my book? i'm going to live to 114. >> i know. that's why. i'm curious if you think the private markets -- thinking about this whole thing about retirement and problems of the system. >> it is. >> the question is whether the private markets or the public markets, some kind of new system has to be developed. curious where you land on that. >> new system for older people? >> yeah. i mean, to make -- >> a new system for building up retirement funds to make sure -- >> invest as much as you can in

your 401(k). first message to anyone whether 18, maybe too late if you're 65. the population of working people, for example, now. they're like, i think it's 55 million people over the age of 65 are still working and going to be 80 million people in the next 20 years that are going to be over age 65. the workforce has to be different. >> right. >> at the same time companies have to plan more, because so many people in the workforce. what should happen to those people after they do want to retire? should you try to keep them? should you try to find something for them to do? should you be helpful to them? have systems installed that prepare them for retirement? it's a big thing. i think you'll be amused. i spoke at a conference last week called "up front" out in california. title of the seconds i spoke on with two other veteran venture capitalists, why the f are we still doing this? i mean, people -- >> what's the answer? >> well, you love the business

and i love -- start-ups and young companies and i love this particular area, because -- you know, everyone's -- excuse me f fought feminism, and now have to fight ageism. a lot more people are living longer are going to be active and think about older people in a more constructive manner and find things -- people have to develop things for them to do and keep them busy. >> can't sit around. >> and how to take care of the ones that get sick. there are 55 million people according to the government who are non-paid caregivers for someone in their family. i don't know if you have any of those problems, but almost everybody has someone, and their people have to give up their work or cut their time at the office to take the government -- by the state of the union message. got to do more about caregiving. all great areas. >> one and only alan patricof.

thanks for joining us. >> always fun to be with you. >> always. when we come back, fed rate cut worst and rising oil prices adding to fears in the markets here and abroad. steve sedgwick along the waters in italy talking to some of the brightest minds whether those fears are warranted. we'll have that next. coming up in the next hour former st. louis fed president james bullard will join us. "squawk box" will be right back. time for today's aflac trivia question. what deodorant claims in your grandfather hadn't worn it, you wouldn't exist. thanerhe"sawbo e sw wn quk x" returns. in my health insurance. gap in your health insurance? yeah, it didn't cover everything when i got hurt. good thing i had aflac. hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. go, go, go! yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com wish we had aflac on our team.

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>> announcer: today march employment numbers. could the jobs report affect the fed's schedule? what the data might mean for possible rate cuts this summer. numbers and analysis today, 8:30 a.m. eastern, cnbc. and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question -- what deodorant brand claims if your grandfather hadn't worn it, you wouldn't exist. the answer, old spice. welcome back to "squawk box." markets facing hurdles in the form of renewed rate cut worries and oil continuing to climb on rising mideast questions. on the ground in lake cuomo, italy this morning, at a conference getting under way, steve sedgwick. where are you? looks like the villa deste,

where you are? >> reporter: exactly, andrew. different from the hotel you and i stayed at at davos a couple years ago. on-air, worst place stayed in. this is opposite. best place. back to global policy. what is really important about today is not just for the u.s. but the global economy. haven't gone chinese growth or any growth out of the european domain as well. everybody globally is looking to the u.s. to maintain it's solid growth it's seen. outsized expectations. so much so that neel kashkari, we all know, maybe won't get something this year. i spoke to chief economist at goldman sachs, and he is confident we'll get cuts. >> i'm not all forecast, i'd be quite surprised if we didn't get rate cut this year. quite surpriseds. base line, pre-consistent with the dot plot but none very surprising under this forecast. >> reporter: and hatzius is

there and also richard coo. his comments, chief economist but works under paul volcker. the problem jay powell has this time, told me volker didn't have, size of the expect reserves in the u.s. banking system. according to richard, there are 1,700 times larger u.s. banking system prepared to pre-lehman. around $3.2 trillion making it more difficult, withdrawal of the stimulus that came with qe. making it more difficult to make it more potent. interesting. quick word from el-erian, chief economic advisor said fed has to stop giving us a play-by-play commentary on every single piece of data. what they've got to do start being a lot more strategic in longer-term view. amazing people are here. the real message from europe, this ain't just about the u.s., rate decision and payroll numbers. this is about the global economy

and keeping ing at least one of legs on the stool there so actually the whole global economy doesn't collapse. back to you, andrew. >> steve sedgwick on a major hard assignment this morning. appreciate news and perspective on all of it. thank you. all right. when we come back, ford expanding its hybrid electric vehicle offerings. talk about a move amid a slump in ev sales and find out if another manufacturers will follow suit. "squawk box" will be rhtacig bk.

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welcome back, everybody. ford delaying production of an all-electric suv and pick-up truck to focus on more hybrid options. phil lebeau is here with more and what this could mean for other manufacturers. >> all dock it, becky and should be. the market has spoken in terms of ev adoption versus hybrid adoption. it's clear, the market, the consumer has said he want hybrids right now. ev is down the road. for now evs put on the back burner to a certain extent and why ford made the decision it's pushing back when it plans to roll out a couple of upcoming evs. from 2025 to 2026 for the electric pick-up and electric suv supposed to come in '25 now coming in '27. at the same time ford is saying they'll expand hybrid model production. and they should. hybrid sales up 42% in the first quarter. big move there.

look at something like the maverick. the hybrid maverick was, went like gangbusters last quarter and they're taking advantage of people saying we want something that is slightly electric, not fully electric. by the way, ford has 8.4% of the hybrid market officially coming in at number five. in terms of ev sales, ford is third in the u.s. tesla still dominates the market with more than 50% market share. there you see hyundai, kia solidly second place and ford followed by gm and rivian. in terms of ev losses, why ford is making the decision. it lost $4.7 billion last year up from 2022. expects to lose between $5 and 5.5 billion this year. if you're ford, you're trying to, as much as possible, limit your losses in a market that is saying, we will go electric eventually. but we aren't doing it right now. so ford is delaying making those

capital expenditures announced some time ago and now delaying rolling out ev models. becky, to your question earlier. will we see this from other automakers? absolutely. already are. gm, really hasn't been in the hybrid game, now coming out, or working on, some plug-in electric models. hybrid models for its pick-up line. so you will see these coming not just with gm but other automakers as well. the consumer clearly has said we will go hybrid right now. we're not quite ready to go with evs. >> yeah. i mean, you think of the companies that kind of got there first. i'm thinking of toyota. maybe there are others, too. >> yeah! >> but it's a really smart -- >> 50% market share. >> yeah. a really smart move. i've got a hybrid it's unbelievable. much better gas mileage but doesn't inconvenience me at all or change anything when i have to charge or -- i don't have to charge. it does it itself, which is great. it's like the idiot-proof

version. >> yep. correct. and the one thing you get with a hybrid you really struggle with when it comes with the pure electric vehicle, long road trips. >> yeah. >> anywhere where you're going, a couple hours, and then saying where am i going to be that i can charge? will the charging station have ports that are open for me to pull my vehicle in? and then when you get there, becky, do you want to spend 45 minutes getting an 80% charge or a half hour getting an 80% charge? >> no. >> no! you want to do what you do at the gas station right now. get in, get out. >> surprised it took everybody else this long to figure that out. if you're driving around in this thing, living your normal lives with it. i mean, hybrid's unbelievable. you don't even know any of the things taking place under the hood. just works better and you get great gas mileage. >> right. and, look, eventually, i do think we'll see more ev sales in this country. absolutely. the market is moving that way and that will continue especially if the next generation of batteries come

along. you hear predictions that are out there that we're going to see 60, 70% ev sales within the next five years? there is nobody, nobody in the ev industry who works on evs who believes that we're going to see that worldwide. i brought that stat up to a number of people this week. people outright laughing on the phone saying no way. the industry's not there. it's impossible. and they're nowhere close. so, yes. hybrids we'll see for the foreseeable future here. >> phil, thank you. joining us right now is dan levy, senior equity analyst at barclays. hearing all of that, what's your reaction. >> thank you for having me. yeah. i would agree with a bunch of what phil is saying here. we are seeing a relative pivot to hybrid and really what this is, a function of two things. one is, we are seeing some challenges in getting that next wave of market acceptance of

evs. we got the early adopters, but really pivoting to the early majority. that's what's proving to be a little more of a challenge addressing those pinpoints like charging, you know, range anxiety, et cetera. the other piece of this is automakers are struggling with the cost, and with challenges on how much they can cut price. this is proving to be a, a challenging economic case for them on pure battery electric vehicles. so that's why you're seeing, maybe, a relative deemphasis of bevs. they're very much of a part of the road map. epa regulations were extended through 2032, revisions that still require by 2030 over half of new car sales to be electric. the vast majority of which will be battery electric. so battery electric is still the main part of the ev road map but

a relative deemphasis and focus on hybrids. >> do you think those standards stand, if there's a different administration that comes in? >> no. they will be revised, but there will be a time process to revise those standards, and even if they are soft, bevs will still be a part of the road map. remember, automakers sunk a lot of investment. still part of the road map but you're see a longer tail and greater emphasis on hiybrids to meet standards. >> overrate for gm and ford. why overweight ratings? >> ford and gm are benefitting from a couple things. one, we are seeing, for as much as the concerns of, you know, peak pricing in the u.s., in the new car cycle, we are still seeing that strength in resiliency. overall a very healthy market, even with signs of normalization. combine that with a relative deemphasis on the ev push

allowing them and specifically gm to allocate more towards, you know, cash return to shareholders. specifically share buybacks, that makes gm especially more attractive. as for tess wil and rivian, look, we are in an ev winter and that incremental demand is proving challenging. rivian has a number of cost challenges, and they're going to need some capital raises. they're facing demand challenges and you just saw with tesla. 1q delivers disappointing even bearish expectations and a big piece of that shows demand weakness at play. >> okay. dan, thanks a lot. >> thank you so much. coming up, a look at some of your pre-market movers and then a recent report in the "atlantic" highlighting the culture war taking place at stanford university. the student who positive broke the investigative piece joins us to discuss how extremism on

campus is affecting students and beyond. "squawk box" will be right back. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly.

last week we had our special day of giving where 100% of sales were given to local charities. so many of you came out with huge support. i am pleased to announce that together we raised over 25 million for local charities across america. thanks to all our team members who truly get the giving culture, and our heartfelt thanks go out to all of you that showed up for our day of giving. together we always make a difference.

welcome back to "squawk box," i'm dominic chu. initially reported by "wall street journal" last week, johnson & johnson buying shock wave medical fors 12ds.5 billion in cash. $335 per share. the move brings up portfolio products by shock wave primarily medical devices used in treatment of heart diseases.

johnson & johnson shares up one half of one percent. shock wave up 1.5%. analysts call streaming video giant netflix shares moving up by three quarters percent. 5,000 shares of volume helped by pivotal research reiterating buy rating upping target price $65. thinking strength and subscriber kbr growth and revenue user will drive that higher. top analysts calls, head to cnbc cnbc.com/pro. more stories there. gold futures up around $2,300. hitting a record high from yesterday that's snapped a seven-day winning streak. gl gold prices on a huge run. bitcoin in what traders call a consolidation phase. around 65,000. keep an eye on shares of digital

gold and regular gold. keep it right here. "squawk box" will be back as we count down to that big jobs report at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. there's news, and there's good news. like thousands of patients receiving free life changing surgeries, from volunteer doctors

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okay, that's uncalled for. welcome back to "squawk box." in 2022 student journalist theo baker became the youngest-ever recipient of a george poke award for investigative report at "stanford ddaehlie -- "stanford da daily." writes the hamas invasion fractured by university typically less focused on this than venture capital funding for the latest storm-based tech start-up. extremism swept through classrooms and dorms becoming normal for students to be harassed and intimidated for their faith, heritage or appearance. joining us, a sophomore at stanford university created quite a following in a very short amount of time.

theo, great to have you on the broadcast this morning. >> thanks so much for having me. you know, these are the sort of campus dispatches where i think it's important to be able to speak to people directly. i look forward to talking about this a little more. >> theo, tell us. you wrote this remarkably in-depth piece about what you've seen at stanford. start with what you saw and reaction to the peace thus far? >> yeah. i mean, honestly, reaction to the piece is sort of proven how important it was, at least to me. there's been a lot of vitriol directed at me. tens of thousands of hate comments and a lot of people sending death threats. a lot of people at stanford telling me how evil i must be. of course, sort of, misses the point entirely talking about how our standards of discourse have been poisoned. i think it's important for people to be able to recognize that there can be multiple issues that are important at the same time. there can be terrible things happenal in gaza and israel and what we're talking about at a

school 7,500 miles away. >> at one point you talk about richard, the recent president. i know a new president just announced. talk about him starting out in an idealistic way and a shift in just how hard it is to deal with these issues. what did you see? >> yeah. it was really interesting. i think i had access to saller that i haven't seen in other national media pieces. i started talking to him just before october 7th. i think eight days before it was my first interview with him and sort of able to track it through the middle of our interview. seemed more battered. a little more bruised by everything he'd gone through and the things forced to sort of step back on and towards the beginning of march when we most recently spoke, clear his position had hardened. i think a few days after his house vandalized, a few days before. effigy of him covered in blood

talking how stanford is genocidal for nor investing in israel when in fact stanford doesn't have investments in israel. >> what kind of enforcement is going on at stanford. heard from stanford alumni and from many of the big prestigious universities and seo saying how is it possible this behavior and activity is allowed to take place? not so much people shouldn't be able to speak out and say their piece, but in how it's done, the impact on folks, and things that may be beyond just speech itself? >> yeah. i mean, it's a tricky buy-in especially for stanford. in california with have something called the leonard law. not present at other university campuses where universities technically have more latitude to set standards of contact than they actually have. the leonard law means the first

amendment protections apply to private universities in california as apply to public universities. basically means first amendment standard is very high for actually being able to punish any speech. obviously there are exceptions, sort of fighting words. pervasive harassment. things that are sort of sticky, tricky issues. stanford said they hired an outside counsel to deal specifically with that. what they haven't told me who the outside counsel is, upon repeated requests and not what's actually happening with that. there's not been transparency and it's hard to see exactly how these instances of harassment can be combatted in a way that doesn't diminish students' rights, infringe on the law and also makes what is supposed to be a purposeful community, a community centered around open exchange actually capable of supporting its students. >> we have seen alumni at a whole number of universities take to the airwaves and beyond.

in some cases having the presidents of those universities ousted. the president of your university ousted for different reasons, on the back of your own reporting previously, but that had nothing to do with this. i'm curious from the venture capital community, the business community, the wealthy alumni who have, may or may not have influence at stanford what you hear? >> yeah. i mean, the back-room conversations are the most interesting ones. richard sala before the dean of humanities and sciences our largest pool by a significant margin and in that capacity he did a lot of fund-raising and has personal ekzconnections wit some donors. we've seen at stanford a lot of flip-flopping back and forth. not a lot of certainty with the moves. not a lot of center with policies. not a lot of center what's going to happen next. that's one place where donors and alumni are trying to exert

inx influence to commit to one way or another to a stance. that's been evolving throughout this entire conflict. see where it continues to go, but i'm certain that's one place where people are focusing their energy. >> do you hear from either folks around the big tech companies or the big venture capitalists, and by the way, there's a split even there about free speech. seeing it in social media and online and elsewhere, but a lot of students obviously inside stanford, this has a huge impact ultimately on tech and other things, i think. graduate from stanford and go on to work at these other places and seems like that, what's happening at stanford can be considered a microcosm of some things happening inside some of these companies' offices and slack channels and the like? >> absolutely. a lot of these people aren't tech people. i discuss my computer science section leader going to go on and do computer science research. one of the people who might have gotten cut out of the article.

i don't even remember at this point, was an ethics minor with a job at ibm who was threatening other students. you know, there are a lot of certainly, you know, culture wars going on inside these companies. internal reckoning. it's important to note that unlike a lot of these east coast institutions we've talked about, stanford just has not been engaged in political activism in recent years and has a history back in vietnam. occupied, hubert humphrey rushed by 300 stanford students. skit service had to hold them back. recently over the school's so-called rule on fun. they're obviously on the east coast, also sort of unprecedented what's been happening inside communities since october 7th. i think a little bit more basis for understanding how this is getting into communities. west coast just feels like it's out of the side from left field. >> theo baker.

a spectacular piece. we encourage readers to get it at "the atlantic" called "the war at stanford." appreciate you being on the broadcast this morning. >> thanks for having me. >> thank you. when we come back, maryland governor wes moore, and then former st. louis fed president james bullard joins us with reaction to the jobs report d an more. more. "squawk box" will be right back. s up here, seat protector and cargoliner back there... nice! out here, side window deflectors... and mud flaps... and the bumpstep, to keep the bumper dent-free. cool! it's the best protection for your vehicle, new or pre-owned. great. but where do i---? order. weathertech.com. sfx: bubblewrap bubble popped sound.

good morning. it is jobs friday in america.

30 minutes and counting to the big number. we are going to parse the data and speak with experts about what it could mean for the fed's rate path, especially after one fed member said maybe there doesn't need to be any rate cuts this year. ahead of all that, the dow coming off its worst day in more than a year. market, jobsand the fed all ahead. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin. joe is off today. let's look at u.s. equity futures this hour. you see things are actually picking up. dow futures up by triple digits. happening after a pretty lousy

day yesterday. in fact, it was the worst day for the dow since march of last year. worst week for the dow at this point since march of last year as well. s&p futures up by 20. nasdaq up by 75. of course, this is riding on what happens with that jobs report in less than half an hour. right now treasury yields higher this morning. you see now the ten year at 433. two year at 466. and crude oil prices have been up as they've been all week. watching this closely. wti right now up by 10 cents to $86.69. brent just below. $99 a barrel. our guest of the hour, talking to ceos in the boardroom, corner office and more. joining us now with unique perspective on the economy. dealmaking. so much more. welcome the co-founder of centerview partners and mergers and acquisition firm advised 0 on more than $4 trillion, with a

"t," most recently working on behalf of disney and its proxy contest against nelson peltz. congratulations to you, sir. >> thank you. good to see you. >> before we get into where we are in the markets and the economy, curious if you could take us inside from your perspective the disney/peltz drama and what you think if there was a lesson in it? >> so logical question you would ask. the answer is simple. when a company is investing well investors have an easy choice. bob and his team mace an easy choice. disney performing well and performing well over a year. market didn't necessarily see it until the last two quarters, but talking about $8 million cash flow, buyback raising dividend twice. more importantly strategically on the right path and the market sees growth sports espn right path. content, 10 of the 13 biggest

elises, disney. bob is here, he said, go from fix to build. the company is in a build. that's for a generation not for quarters. when you do that, you don't introduce distraction to the boardroom. >> we asked michael froman, board member a target of this, just on the newscast a few hours ago, whether or not nelson peltz comes back together again and do they act agency a modulator, regulator, pressure point on the board to perform? >> tell you this. bob iger has a big pressure point called "bob iger." bob came back to get the company back to its rightful spot, top of the pyramid. that's where they're headed. bob will keep pressure as will the rest of his talented organization doing just that. so i don't think nelson comes back for one simple reason -- i believe strongly the company

will continue to perform. >> i would say iger and company had all of these plans in place. moving and doing all the things nelson was, nelson peltz was complaining about already in action. a few things happened in the last week or so. one thing reaching out making amends in the florida state governor there. that was something that i felt like it was kind of tied to this. trying to wrap up the loose ends before this vote. >> i can comfortably tell you, becky, it wasn't. that's a discussion that had been ongoing, and obviously shareholders did speak about issues that mattered. dtc in particular. succession in particular, and the company has a robust succession committee planning process. heard from mike, james gorman, through his own succession, mark barger and taking it as they should seriously. >> one more in the media space and then go broader. paramount. >> heard of it.

>> you've heard of it. involved in the middle of it. >> a bit. >> a question how a transaction can take place so shareholders are treated fairly, so the redstone family can get as much money as they can. can you speak how this could work, or not? >> obviously, i can't really address it other than to say all parties involved share redstone and her position, the committee representing public shelters and their position, b shares, are taking every day exquisitely seriously in terms of doing the right thing. the right review. the right thing for the company in the short term and the long term and just highly focused. >> do you think there's a deal in the next 30 days? >> you know i can't say that, my question is why negotiate exclusively with one party if there's a potential higher offer? >> you know i can't say that either. i can tell you -- >> theoretically. >> theoretically you would do something weighing all of your

options, thinking about what is doable what is not doable. what is real, what is not real. and making sure that you're making the safest play for shareholders in the way that you're combining certainty and safety with also maximization in the short and long term. that's what the company's focused on. we will see what happens. >> let me ask you a broader question about the economy. could the extend m & a and dealmaking and the light are a barometer, talked about it, of confidence in the economy. where do you think people really stand when you talk to boards and ceos sort of where we are in today's economy? >> i think the economy, for the foreseeable future, andrew, remains robust, resilient. we'll see it in first quarter earnings. again you will see my bet is 75% or so of the s&p exceeding earnings expectations. market has about 4%. it will dobetter. continued tailwinds from the consumer.

find out in a half hour, assume unemployment remains 3.8%. that would be 25 months in a row below 4.5%. a record, best in 50 years. consumer better top three quartiles than credit for. spending, $5 trillion of bipartisan spending from tips, $1.2 trillion on infrastructure. ira. all helping the markets. finally the u.s. economy has really become envy of the world. bigger question is, how sustainable is this? i believe as others do that it actually is stainable. >> then the question is whether the federal reserve what they need to do or not do if you think the economy is coming along as strong -- >> hats off manages deftly to this point keeping the economy growing, bringing inflation down. the last percent obviously and keeping employment where it is. i happen to believe when the fed

raised its estimate from 1.5 growth to 2%, proved conservative. my bet is that the common wisdom three cuts during the year. i think prove to be optimistic? >> credit to the fed or the biden administration? i ask because we're middle of an election year. traditionally support of democrats? >> i think the administration has obviously done a strong job getting legislation to help the economy. i mentioned $5 trillion in spending, important. and the -- don't underestimate the power of the private sector. leaders across all of these companies know how to operate nimbly. to nominal technology. people don't appreciate a.i. it will add $4 trillion potentially in the next ten years gdp. 43 of the top 50 a.i. companies are u.s.-based. all of these really strong tailwinds i believe will make the economy -- >> you're in the steve cohen

camp. the a.i. iphenomenon discounted >> if he's in that camp, put me in. i didn't know he was there. >> and what about -- >> so the rate cut is a signal. >> uh-huh. >> goes down a quarter point, it's not the impact. financially. it is a big signal. remember, a rate cut, the past four times rates have come down, 12 months following that gdp growth more than 3%. markets up 25%. a very positive signal. given i think we will have inflation more or less under control -- more or less -- going the right way. surprised if we didn't get a rate cut. i think we will. >> screaming for us to go. would it impact m & a activity? >> it will. m & a driven now primarily, becky by enthusiasm in the markets, by ceos, talking about their business, and hasn't been a lot of m & a for a long time.

kate of catch-up. >> final one. put your analyst pen to paper and do evaluation analysis on truth social, how would you do it? >> have to get a really smart analyst. couldn't figure it out given there's no numbers. >> thank you for joining us this morning. appreciate it. when we come back, we've got the march jobs report coming up. economists are expecting a gain of 200,000 jobs. next, though, maryland's governor wes moore will join us on the baltimore bridge cleanup and what it will take to get the city's port back to full strength. strength. quk x"ilbeig back. swim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab.

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welcome back to "squawk box." just in the last few minutes president biden preparing a visit to the site of the collapsed francis scott key bridge in baltimore today. efforts to rebuild starting to get political. joinings now we have more on that. >> well, good morning, andrew. yeah. president biden, he promised federal funds to rebuild the francis scott key bridge but has already faced pushback from congress. a group of three to four dozen hard-line conservatives, house freedom caucus out this morning with a new statement saying that any funding for the bridge needs to meet several conditions. they include making sure that any spending on the bridge is offset to keep government spending in check. also want to end the current limits on liquid natural gas exports and ease federal regulations around the bridge's reconstruction to speed up that

rebuild. but meanwhile, expected to ask for the federal government to cover 100% of the cost for repairing the bridge. that's similar to what happened back in 2007 when a bridge in minnesota collapsed. of course, then congress approved $250 million to repair the bridge in five days. expecting it to take longer this time. both because of the politics around this and as lawmakers grapple with whether to approvebillions in funding for ukraine and israel. of course, guys, we are still pating for biden to actually request a price tag on exactly how much funding is going to be needed to rebuild that bridge. becky? >> emily, thank you very much. right now we bring in a special guest to talk about the bridge collapse and the efforts to rebuild. maryland governor wes moore. governor moore, first of all, our condolences. this has been a national calamity. we've watched from awar. bring us up top speed on what the situation is there? >> thank you very much and the

state is very much mourning. you're right. we lost six individuals during that time. six marylanders. we have told the families and will continue to tell them that we will do anything we can do to bring them not just a sense of closure but a sense of comfort. we also know that the calamity was not just human. also economic. you know, this is one of the most important ports in the entire country. one of the most important maritime vehicles that america has. the port of baltimore is responsible for $70 billion of economic activity, employs tens of thousands of people. 900 businesses rely on the port of baltimore. when you're seeing now an unprecedented maritime disaster, where you have a ship that is the size of the eiffel tower and the weight of the washington monument that is now sitting in the middle of the pa task o

river, this is a complicated operation and one we know doesn't just have an impact on maryland but an impact on the larger american economy as well. >> the complicating factors you mentioned. the ship with the bridge on top of it in the water, which, by the way, deals with tidal waters. changing tides constantly. how long do you anticipate that this is going to take, just to clean up the disaster, and then move beyond that to try and rebuild the bridge? >> you're absolutely right. when you add on complications of not just debris and wreckage that is in the water. our divers cannot see any further than a foot or two in front of them because of the amount of debris in the water. you also have the issue weather and wind. which also complicates it. we have been working, this has been an operation and unified command working literally 24/7 working with u.s. coast guard, army corps of engineers, navy

and local leaders and local elected officials, the maryland state police and we just received word from the army corps of engineers they believe that within a month we can open up at least a channel of a 35-foot depth, which is a significant milestone, because that's what's necessary where things like new cars and heavy trucks, where the port of baltimore is the largest port for new cars and heavy trucks in this country. then hopefully within a month after that able to open up to a fuller 50-foot depth, but we know that's an all-hands on deck 24/7 separation for us to hit those type of timelines, but one we're prepared to take on. >> the ship's owner and management company went to court to try and limit their liability to something like $43 million. that comes as a surprise or a concern? >> it's not a surprise. we were expecting it. we're prepared for it. i know there needs to be a full and thorough investigation, but i also know this -- if people need to be held to account for what happened on that day, they need to be held

to account and need to be responsible for it. so we know it's an active investigation. we would like to see a speedy process with that investigation. and while we're not surprised on the ask for the limited liability i know the thing we urge is there needs to be accountability for what happened that night. >> i'm sure you just heard the report fromwilkenson, federal funds go through several hoops before approved. thoughts on that? >> the thing i would remind people is, this is bigger than baltimore. this is bigger than the state of maryland. the port of baltimore is one of the largest, most efficient ports that we have in this country. a real leader in the entire maritime industry. so when we're talking about how does this impact maryland, this doesn't just impact marylanders. this is impacting the farmer in kentucky. because the largest port in this country for agricultural equipment is the port of

baltimore. this doesn't just, you know, this impact the auto workers in ohio because the largest port in this country for new cars, heavy trucks, is the port of baltimore. this impacts the restaurant owner in tennessee, because the largest port in this country for spices and sugars is the port of baltimore. if you're working in coal, you rely on the port of baltimore. the port of baltimore is not a maryland issue. people need to rally around support for this industry and support for this port not because you're doing maryland a favor. maryland doesn't need favors. what maryland needs right now is for us to have a coordinated and bipartisan response to something that is going to have a cataclysmic impact on the american economy. >> have you spoken with congressional leaders in washington? >> we have. we have spoken with congressional leaders and frankly congressional leaders and state leaders. chief executives and governors from both sides of the aisle, and i'm encouraged, because i think the things we continue to

hear is that there has to be a bipartisan approach to be able to deal with not just the human tragedy also the economic tragedy. i can tell you look at the state of maryland. how we are moving in a unified fashion with local, federal and state leader. both democrats and republicans in our federal delegation are all united on this. i think maryland is continuing to lead in that and i think helping to show an example for the rest of the country that in times like this, it's important to put the politics aside and it's important to focus on what is going to be best for the people, for the businesses and for the industries that continue to drive our country. >> wes, this really lands in the house. have you spoken with the house speaker, johnson? on this? >> i personally have not spoken with speaker johnson. our delegation has. i spoke yesterday with congressman clisy and fumet who represent the districts impacted by this and he's said he has had a few very good conversations with the speaker.

so we're hopeful. we're helpful we'll be able to come with a coordinated response and one that doesn't just meet the moment, but one that honors the foundation of this country, and what it is we're trying to accomplish together. >> wes moore, governor of maryland. governor, thank you for your time. again, we send our condolences and speedy wishes for everything you all are dealing with there right now. >> god bless you. thank you. >> thanks, wes. when we come back, march jobs. the big number. counting down to that number. happening at 8:30 eastern time. literally about 8 minutes from now. do not go anywhere. we're going to watch the markets get instant reaction all as it happens, after this. think about it. boring is the unsung catalyst for bold. what straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space? boring does. great job astro-persons. over. boring is the jumping off point for all the un-boring things we do. boring makes vacations happen,

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even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. relief is possible. talk to a doctor about nurtec odt. welcome back to "squawk box." treasury secretary janet yellen wrapped up her first full day of meetings in china. a tough tone frequently emphasizing concerns about china's industrial overcapacity in connection with americans in chi china. talking about ev batteries. heard from several foreign leaders who share the same view. >> i'd like to underscore that our concern with overcapacity,

this is not anti-china policy. it's an effort for us to mid gai mou mitigate the risks if china doesn't adjust its policies. >> programming note. on monday treasury secretary janet yellen sits down in the five a.m. hour takes place on monday. coming up next, the number of the morning. march jobs. we are going to bring it to you soon as it hits. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc and we are tellliray just about three and a half minutes until the big number. come on back.

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. okay. welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're just a couple minutes, one minute away from the government's march employment report. ahead of that data we want to show off our jobs panel. we'll speak today with meta isa associate professor of policy and economics at georgetown university. stephanie kelton professor of economics in public policy at stony brooke university. stephanie link, chief investment strategist and portfolio manager at hightower advisers and cnbc contributor and our own steve liesman and rick santelli standing by. let's look quickly what's happening with the futures ahead of this so we can see any reaction that may pop up. dow futures up by about 100 points ahead of this number. s&p up by 20. nasdaq up by 23.

watching what's happening with treasury. quickly look at those yields, too. higher. ten year at 433? 432 right now. two year at 466. again, the number we're watching for is 200,000. that would compare with 275,000 from last month. unemployment number 3.8%. hand it it right over to rick santelli. >> yes. big march jobs, jobs, jobs report hitting the wires. non-farm payrolls a whopping 303,000. that bests most estimates and goes right along with the wis cher number higher than estimates due to the strength isn't adp. 303,000. that's the juiciest number we've had going back to -- ba-ba-ba -- 300,000 equal the may of '23 right on the nose. find a higher number, back to january of last year. unemployment rate, 3.8. a biggy.

because last month's 3.9 was the highest unemployment rate since jan of '22. it did moderate a bit. if we look at average hourly earnings, which were up 0.1% last month. lowest month over month change since march of '21. call it three years. first of all, that was revised now to up 0.2 and the new number is up 0.3 percent exactly as expected. year over year, 4.1. as expected. down from 4.3. actually, when you look at 4.1 you have to go back to -- june of '21. june of '21. excuse me. yeah. 4.1. june of '21, to find a lower number. that's a really big deal when you consider what the average hourly earnings on year over year basis has been doing. average workweek. 34.4 hours. that's a 0.10 higher than expected and in rear view mere.

34.3. finally, u6. under employment rate. excuse me. 7.3. 7.3% and labor force participation, wow! 62.7. 62.7. that is a nice jump. we were at 62.5 last month, and 62.6 was expected. these numbers are definitely stronger than expected. and one would expect rates to be higher and indeed they are. 470 now. 470. up about five basis points in a two year. and the ten year was right around 432 before the number. it's now 437. 437. so up 5. and i can't stress enough, any yield close in tens above 433 on a weekly basis should keep momentum to the down side in price and upside in yield, and many were looking for the unemployment rate to move higher than that 3.9. the fact that it backed up a bit is very important, and there's

been much written about the number of weekend days in february versus march. a lot of issues there, but all in all, certainly does seem like the numbers are better than expected. and, in my opinion, probably make the fed's decision that much more complicated. becky, back to you. >> yeah. in your opinion and looks like in the market's opinion, too. ten year at 439. increase about six basis points from where we started when we got this number just three minutes ago. rick, stay there. bring in the rest of our jobs panel on this for instant reaction. steve, start with you. dig through the numbers. tell us where those jobs actually were occurring. 303,000 versus the 200,000 that was the estimate. >> okay. so i was just able to calculate on the fly. did not double check nigh numbers, but -- handy calculator. 68% of jobs from three sectors if i'm not mistaken. you can guess, becky, i bet.

♪ >> restaurants, leisure hospitality. that's 49. >> government? >> government's 71. that's two for two. call you a winner. two out of three. >> tell me. the third? >> take that. >> not getting the third. >> education and health services. the three. 68%. 203,000 or 200-something, thousand. not a lot of strength outside of those three sectors. a test, folks. tested in the market of this theory that the headline number doesn't matter as much as the inflationary indicators inside. payroll was a little hot. reason why the year over year comes down, you have bigger numbers dropping out of the calculation from 4.5s in the rearview mirror. those are dropping out. replace it with a .35 i think, if not mistaken. a little on the high side. still year over year comes down. big story of the day, the

participation rate, maybe. technically, theoretically, as long as the labor force is increasing in size, and you have bodies to fill jobs without creating stress, and needing to bid up wages quite so much is none an inflationary development. it's okay to put as many people to work as want to come to work as a wage that is not greater than the sum of, we talked about in the last hour, inflation productivity. leave it there in case you disagree. >> to dig into that a little bit. the idea bringing more people back into the workforce. waiting for this since the covid pandemic broke out. the idea are you getting these bodies back to the workforce? run out of savings, forced to come back, better job opportunities than seen before? >> you can't know it, but have your glass half empty and say people are only going to work because -- they are, they need the jobs. when did jobs become a welfare program? it's not. jobs are offered and paid for

because employ empers have work do. >> if you have access savings, americans did from a lot of government handouts, saving money because they weren't traveling. >> what if you could only do one before spending time commute, working from home. what if on the sidelines -- >> writ large. okay. >> what if on the sidelines a retiree and said, give you $40 to come back. beforeit wasn't worth it. the other side. no way to know one or the other. i can look at participation rate of seniors or older folks. coming back into the workforce. more than waiting to get back to the pandemic level we exceeded the pandemic level. we have brought more people cac in to the workforce. >> hold on a minute, folks. >> go ahead, rick. >> don't get too excited. >> i'm very excited. don't tel not to be excited.

>> 63 t.8. three readings last year. in november, in september and august of last year. even though it's important and it's jumped from 62.5, it's not like we haven't been there and done that rather-- >> still below. ip i see that. prime number, look at it in a second. you're right. that exceeded it but an issue seniors having dropped out of the workforce and a weird situation of them not coming back. that's part of the reason. >> invited all of these guests. have them jump in, too. >> i'm sorry. >> reaction to numbers and reaction to what you think this means for the fed? >> so this is surprisingly, a large number. i think that the analysis so far is pretty accurate. this is, doesn't look to be, a very large number but doesn't look to be inflationary, because, we're somehow getting these jobs filled.

i think the story we haven't talked about seems to be lingering in the background is whether immigration is playing a role in filling some of these jobs. as long as that's happening, i think we're going to be okay. and i don't think the fed has enough yet to make decisions about whether to cut rates. i think we still have to hold on, and one other thing i'll note. a very strong number two months ago revised down and have to be a little careful about reading too much into one month's jobs number. >> stephanie, your take on this and then weigh in with stephanie link on the market reaction. stephanie kelton, your thoughts on this? >> yeah. this is an economy that's being powered by two thing. fiscal policy and net imgrigs. i think it's really important that we do pay attention to that last part of this. last year half of the growth in the labor force came from net immigration. there were 5.2 million additional jobs last year.

thanks to net immigration. it's been the key to rebalancing the labor market. a huge part of the reason why we have the growth we've got, and the disinflation we've had. so i mean, this is an eye-popping number and the story it tells, we should be expecting the fed to follow through on that promise of higher for longer. i don't think it make as whole lot of sense to think in terms of three and probably not even two rate cuts this year. >> hmm. >> becky, quick. >> go ahead. >> i am correct. 25 to 54 prime age workforce participation up a half point. from pre-pandemic. rick is correct. the overall is down half a point. >> down. >> i think seniors are the swing factor there. nice when both rick and i are right. >> wow. >> doesn't happen often. >> stephanie link. watching the market. we were looking at the dow industrials indicated up by 100 points when we started. now it has given back.

actually -- show me futures again. okay. dow futures still indicated up by about 65 points. but clearly, you did see the move in treasury yields that adds a little skepticism to the idea you'll get a rate cut anytime soon? >> yeah. probably not getting a rate cut anytime soon. at the end of the day, though, this is, this is a good number. we have a really good economy. 2.5 gdp. on top of allal we saw last year and led by the consumer. i think we were all a little nervous about average hourly earnings maybe coming in a little hot after the adp report but in line and supportive of the consumer continuing to spend. steve mentioned that leisure and hospitality led the way. we root for the consumer, because it's 70% of our economy. root for services. that's 75% of consumption. all going in the right direction. it's continuing on momentum from

last year. all of this means earnings can continue to be good. double-digit earnings growth in the frouourth quarter, 8% to 10 this year. the numbers supportive of that. the other interesting part is we're seeing a broadening out of the marketplace. there are places to actually put money to work. and on the dips like yesterday, i think a lot of that yesterday was because oil prices rose above $90 a barrel on brent. watch oil prices. a big deal. but the broadening out is very supportive for a market that is probably going higher. edging higher. >> you're a buyer on this number. >> i'm a buyer on this number absolutely. but not a buyer on max 7 and tech. energy, financials, earnings coming in really good in those sectors. >> becky, went into this number with a probability june cut 65% to underscore what stephanie

said. now down 57. >> below 50. >> sort of going on with what others say. not get a rate cut anytime soon. july actually dropped. i don't like looking that far out into the universe here but it's dropped -- based only one number. dropped down to 74%. i like to say the number is more in play with a 60s in front of it. still feeling good about july, but not so good about june. >> stephanie kelton, quickly before you go. we were with michelle gerard earlier who pointed out a cpi number coming next week that may be more important on this. sorry, cpi number coming next week, might be more important. what do you need to see there? >> well, we would like to see continued progress. i think, you know, this idea that we've got a couple of bumps in the road, january, february, would be really nice not to have another bump in march, or it starts to look like more of a

hill than a couple bumps in the road. very much we'd like to see wage pressure give indication that labor market is accommodating new entrants without much pressure on wages. productivity growth is there doing its thing and we would like to see that number come in, in line with expectations, and no downside surprise. >> all right. thanks to the panel this morning. meta, stephanie, stephanie rick and steve. see you later. coming up after this, a look how the fed may take the latest jobs number into account when it is time to decide on interest rates. we've just been debating. former st. louis fed president jim bullard joins us in a little bit. stay tuned to hear his perspective on all of these numbers and what it means for the fed. isxt big decision, right after th.

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all right. welcome back to "squawk box." let's digest what we just heard. got that march employment report from the government. it showed a gain of 303,000 jobs. that was better than the 200,000 that had been expected. an increase of 50%. you saw initially the markets sell off. equity markets sell off on concerns maybe the fed won't cut rates as quickly as expected. you saw treasury yields pick up and now have futures back. dow futures actually higher than before the number was reported's gain of about 116 points. maybe people are realizing that good numbers are good numbers. it means the economy is running strong right now. you do have the ten-year yield at 337. about four basis points where it was before the numbers. two year now yielding 4.7's%. that's an increase can of about

four basis points. we'll continue to watch this. again, stronger than anticipated economic numbers. stronger than expected jobs report. what that means for the fed is anybody's guess. >> and that is the question of the hour, and we've got the perfect person to answer that question about what could impact the fed's rate path ahead. joining us former st. louis fed president bullard, dean of the junior school of business. appreciate you being with us this morning. just your immediate reaction to these numbers, jim? >> yeah. a strong report, and unemployment ticking down. it looks like the economy is running pretty hot. so i think that's good news, i think, for the economy. i do think that the policy rate is too high right now for the current situation. because inflation's come down some 200 basis points from where it was last year.

look core pce inflation, the fed's favorite measure, it was 200 basis points higher last year at this time. so i think you somehow have to have a moment where the fed can take that onboard. the fact that inflation has come down. but you need your moment, and january didn't provide it with the hot inflation report. february didn't really provide it. this report isn't really providing that moment, but i do think that the fed, you know, needs to get down a little bit lower based on the data we have on inflation. and we could talk more about it, but that's what i think the bake situation is. >> play it out for the rest of the year. when is that moment coming? and at the moment, is there going to be three opportunities to create has moment? that moment? >> yeah. the inflation reports that are upcoming, if they can show disinflation, the continuation of the disinflation trend we

had, especially in the second half of last year, that will give the committee comfort to make this first move. and i do think there's the notion that the first move is more momentous than any subsequent move. you're setting moves because yo setting a direction, so you want to be careful about exactly what moment they would choose. >> but if these are as strong as they are -- look, there's a lot of -- i can give you reasons why you would to lower, given just what it's going to mean to interest rates in this country and what it's going to cost this country and everything else, but you can also just argue, maybe, do nothing. this has been the argument that a whole bunch of folks have made and also the folks like jamie dimon who have basically said that inflation is going to be stubbornly high. by the way, steve cohen -- >> certainly, i think the idea, what's the rush? my former colleague, chris waller, that was the title of his speech at one point. "what's the rush?" certainly with the economy performing pretty well, there probably isn't as much urgency

to get a lower policy rate, but still, they're too high by most metrics. if you think the policy rate was at the right level last july when they made their last rate increase, why do you think that level is still the right level today, and core pce inflation is 200 basis points lower? you got to take that on board and bring the policy rate down. but there are other considerations because it's the first policy move, and you don't want to move on news where inflation is moving in the wrong direction. i think that's the tradeoff here right now. >> but as you know, we're in an election year, and there's always been a view that as you get closer to the election, there might be some hesitation about making any moves, frankly. >> i think you can make 25 basis point moves or anything that's, you know, rationalized by the data as it's coming in. i don't think that 25 basis

points one way or the other changes election outcomes. the median voter isn't watching this program, i don't think. i don't think you can win an election based on whether the fed zigs or zags unless they did something extraordinary, but ordinary monetary policy would not affect the election. that committee really takes election into account because of that. >> when you look at these numbers, though, how would you grade our economy today? we were talking about this piece yesterday in the "wall street journal" about how strong the data -- the numbers would suggest our economy is, and yet how disconnected it appears the polls about people's feelings about the economy seem to be. >> i read that piece. i have my own response to this. i think -- i'm probably going to get the numbers a little bit wrong, but average hourly earnings have come up over the

last couple years about 13%, but inflation, the price level over the past couple years, has come up 18%, so a typical worker is looking at that, and they're saying, hey, i'm down 5% over the last couple of years. they don't like that. that's real income down for them. unless they have some other source of income somewhere else. you know, they're worse off, and they're reporting dutifully saying in surveys, i think i'm worse off, and i don't like it. >> so, how would you grade our economy then? >> on traditional measures like growth, it's really great to see the good growth. it's great to see these jobs coming back. i would mention one thing about jobs for viewers here is that nonfarm payrolls haven't really returned to the trend line that you would have drawn from before the pandemic, so maybe it's not that surprising that you're still adding quite a few workers here if you think the pandemic was this, you know, very large

but ultimately temporary disturbance, you should be able to get back to that trend line. that hasn't happened yet. so, it's great to see the jobs being added. it's great to see the growth. i think there is plenty of innovation going on in the economy, so from the traditional macro measures, i think it's a good economy, but this inflation has hurt especially low and moderate-income households harder than the rest of the income distribution, and that's -- >> now that you're an academic, we got purdue university behind you. i need a grade, not on a curve. >> it's a b-plus. >> b-plus. okay. we'll take it. jim, thank you for joining us this morning. we appreciate your perspective, especially as this news is just crossing the wires. when we come back, we'll talk about jobs and a.i. we'll talk about t w theayhe labor market could be in for a disruption after this.

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well, that march jobs number came in well above expectations. for a look at how a.i. could affect the jobs picture long-term and maybe a couple stocks to watch, we want to bring in tyler radke, senior equity research analyst at citi research. tyler, your point is that this is going to lead to lots of productivity growth, but the downside is it's going to mean we need a lot fewer workers. >> yeah, good morning. so, obviously, generative a.i.

and the whole boom that we're seeing around a.i. is incredibly exciting. i think the key point is there's a huge amount of uncertainty. we're very early into this journey. chatgpt really only became popular about 12, 15 months ago. these technology cycles will play out over multiple years, if not decades, but ultimately, we're in a environment where costs are still under a lot of pressure. interest rates, we talked about earlier, are stubbornly high, so we do think as companies look to fund these projects, they're going to need to make cuts and find cost savings elsewhere, and if you look at things like contact center, call center, developers, there are a lot of really interesting up-and-coming tools that can help drive a lot of productivity and ultimately, i think, the big question mark is what happens to those jobs long-term. so, it's something to watch. obviously, there's been a lot of technology changes that have

been predicted to cull and disrupt a lot of job markets, and those haven't played out in the past, but certainly something to watch going forward. >> your top pick is microsoft, at least when it comes to the big caps? >> that's correct. yes. we like microsoft, servicenow, among the larger cap names and then there's a host of smaller cap names that we like on this theme as well. >> smaller cap names that maybe don't go into the pink sheets. mongodb? >> i would say that's a little larger than smaller cap. we're talking 30 or $40 billion market cap, really an up-and-coming next generation data vendor, so as the explosion of data rises because of a.i., you have things like vector databases on the rise. we think mongdb is well positioned to capture a lot of that increasing spend. >> tyler, i want to thank you for your time today. really great seeing you.

final check on the markets as we get ready to hand things oefrp to kw"squawk on the stree" dow futures up by 63. i guess midway, looking at how to digest those stronger than anticipated jobs numbers. got a lot more we'll be following next week, including the cpi, but make sure you have a great weekend, and we'll see you back here on monday. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. futures are trying to bounce after thursday's decline, and as march jobs crush estimates, 303,000, employment rate falls, so does annual wage growth, lowest in almost three years. our road map is going to begin with that report, the strong payroll number providing some new challenges for the fed. treasury secretaries in china delivering a certain message about that country's treatment of u.s. businesses. and some health care