as we get ready to hand things oefrp to kw"squawk on the stree" dow futures up by 63. i guess midway, looking at how to digest those stronger than anticipated jobs numbers. got a lot more we'll be following next week, including the cpi, but make sure you have a great weekend, and we'll see you back here on monday. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. futures are trying to bounce after thursday's decline, and as march jobs crush estimates, 303,000, employment rate falls, so does annual wage growth, lowest in almost three years. our road map is going to begin with that report, the strong payroll number providing some new challenges for the fed. treasury secretaries in china delivering a certain message about that country's treatment of u.s. businesses. and some health care m&a,

j&j striking a deal to acquire shock wave medical in a $12.5 billion cash deal. let's begin with the market reaction to this jobs number, jim. unemployment down to 3.8%. lfpr, up a tick or two. that's nice. >> i didn't mind this number, because in the last few weeks, the narrative had come that maybe we're not -- maybe the consumer's gotten more frugal. maybe there's not been a lot of spending. you've seen the retail stocks all come down. this number says, look, don't worry about that. it's not going to a precipitous decline. i think the whole narrative of, will they cut, when they cut, we have to get away from that. we have to say, the economy is healthier than we thought. next week, we're going to be talking about profits, not the fed, and this number gives me hope that profits will be okay at the consumer level. >> we are going to talk to lael brainard. quickly some forensics, you did

not buy this was a kashkari-driven selloff. >> no, it was very much related to stories in the mideast. we have huge flights of quality, and then kashkari spoke. interest rates were reacting to flight to quality. it became taiwan and ukraine, but i think the undercurrent is mideast and the fact that oil is almost $100 a barrel is considered to be worrisome, not from the inflationary point of view but from the point of view that they feel something could happen this weekend, which is why i still don't trust this number. i am worried about something happening. >> does that mean you would not necessarily want to go long into the weekend? >> i think the people won't want to go long. i think we're almost oversold. i think if oil starts ticking up again, even though we have a lot of supply, that's worrisome. when you have oil ticking up, and yet there's a lot of supply, and we do have a glut in our country, when you had interest rates going the wrong way and then you had kashkari, and

kashkari was not a factor, you would think interest rates wouwould be going up on kashkari. it went down. it's world events versus these numbers. if we didn't have world events, i think people would say, we could rotate back to the areas we've been selling. >> interesting piece in "the journal" today about energy. gasoline inventories, for example, down, five-year low for this time of year. you got gasoline average $3.60 here. nice chart out of piper looking at when energy leads equities, market multiples tend to suffer a bit. >> it's really interesting, by the way. exxon had a miss. they preannounced, and the stock was up anyway. chevron had a huge move here. the mass limited partnerships are going up big. and yet, when you look at the actual inventories, we're okay. it's the refiners that are making all the money. this is a valero-led rally. i don't like those, because those are the least value added. if you asked me which is the most value add, it would be a.i. the least value add is refinery. all they do is just -- i mean,

you know, there's two kinds of refinery. there's the booze refinery and the oil refinery, and they're both simple products. i'm just worried about the mideast. i am. that's what is controlling the dialogue, not fed governor. >> your take, then, generally about the jobs number is, there's one thing we don't necessarily have to worry about. >> exactly. >> some yesterday argued, jobs number is the appetizer to the entree next wednesday, which is cpi. >> well, yes, and i -- i instantly heard that. we're always going to get banged on anything housing, rent. i mean, i wondered whether lael brainard will talk directly about what happened to rent in this country, which is that you have so many immigrants have come in, and so many people have to be housed that the slack is completely taken up when it comes to rent, even though autos, as phil would tell you, unbelievable coverage as usual, that autos are coming down in price.

i saw musk cut again. >> reports show that musk is trimming the cost of at least the y, the suv, by five grand. >> i know. >> as we know what happened to inventory in the last delivery report. >> hertz is trying still to get rid of its inventory. hertz is -- i don't think they're in the fight for their life, but they got to get rid of that, because that was a bad bet. autos, we see the switch over to hybrid. we don't have anything that's really spiking to me, other than gasoline, which can be ephemeral, and rent. >> we talk about the tesla price cuts. everyone's talking hybrid now. some manheim numbers. let's get to phil lebeau on that. hey, phil. >> good morning, carl. good morning, jim. let's talk about used car prices, and that market, this is new data from cox automotive, looking at what they saw in march, and their term for the month, tepid. not anything great out there that has people saying, yes, i have to buy a used vehicle right now. we'll explain why in just a little bit. here are the numbers from cox

automotive in terms of what they saw in march. overall pricing down 11.4% compared to the first quarter of last year, and remember, that first quarter of last year, we're still dealing with a big surge in inflation pricing within the used market. 3.1% increase versus february. they were expecting closer to 3.4% or 3.5% because the prices usually firm up in march as more people get into the market, and they are calling it tepid demand right now. take a looat carmax any overall and more a reflection of the supply of new vehicles that are out there as you take a look at dealership stocks. keep in mind that what you have is greater new vehicle supply coming into the market, especially at lower price points. that's why, when you take a look at what jd power is reporting, the price of a new vehicle, average transaction price, down more than $1,600 in the first

quarter. and i wouldn't be surprised if that continues to fall in the second quarter, because they had the full compliment of chips now they didn't have over the last couple years. the automakers can no longer say, we only have the highest trim level. the consumer is saying, we want the lower trim levels, and that's the supply that's coming into the market. >> you just went on, you answered it. one of the things we've all discovered is covid's shadow is much longer than we thought, and the idea that we're just now -- right? we're just now getting supply chain normalized. >> absolutely. and that's what this number -- these numbers reflect for the used market. it's becoming a much more normal market. it was not normal when you saw prices jumping up 6, 8, 10% year over year over an extended period of time. it's much closer to normal now, and most of that is because of the supply that is out there in the market. we didn't see that over the last three years. >> incredible. back to normal.

>> yeah. phil, appreciate that. lot more to come next week. phil lebeau. speaking of autos, we know it's an industry heavily influenced by chinese exports, and yellen is on the ground. sara is going to talk to her monday morning. this take about -- she's calling it coercive moves, not necessarily against the u.s. but against the global economy. >> i don't think the globe will stand for it anymore. i mean, it was one thing when they were doing this because, you know, they were manufacturing power. now they're doing it because of how bad their real estate market is. and a lot of countries say, listen, don't wreck our country because of your real estate market. i think that yellen will be forceful with that. i can't wait to see what she says to sara, because she's right in their face. i mean, and then, you know, typically, i'm speaking with -- i speak with george kurtz from crowdstrike, i mean, china is just going nuts with cyber terror. these guys are just outlaws right now, and she's going to

the kingdom, and basically calling them outlaws, and i don't think -- i think it's much more disruptive than people think. >> we look forward to sara's sitdown, but in the meantime, take a listen to what the treasury secretary has said so far. >> we've seen the prc pursue unfair economic practices, including imposing barriers to access for foreign firms and taking coercive actions against american companies. i strongly believe this doesn't only hurt these american firms. ending these unfair practices would benefit china by improving the business climate here. >> whmeanwhile, the eu opening probe of two chinese solar panel makers, so the u.s. is not doing this alone. >> it's the old days. they're back. first solar has very little cost. don't buy sun power. be very careful. a lot of speculative stocks have been attracting younger investors, and we don't want

that, because those balance sheets are bad. but we are under assault like we haven't been in some time. and other countries too, but we got to focus on mexico. as phil was just demonstrated over and over again, that's the back door to our country, and i know that you've got people like bill, jim farley, the ceo of ford, worried that somehow our country's not going to be rigorous enough and allow volvo to come in. volvo is the chinese trojan horse. i'm worried about what chinese is doing. i'm worried about the middle east. these are these unfortunate narratives that are not the fed that are very hard to game, and i just -- going into earnings, i don't want to see ceos talk about how we're being undercut by china. that's just a terrible narrative. >> that is interesting that you're arguing that the fed discussion is being supplanted military concerns. >> yes. yes. military. and i think, by the way, if we

go back to what phil said about used cars, you're seeing, at a certain level, people misjudging, and this is why i wanted to see employment be okay. lamb weston was down horribly yesterday. really bad. 120 points. they had this erp. enterprise resource planning, they can't execute it. they had weak demand for french fries. let's think about that for a second. that just means fewer diners. we have not turned on french fries. you can give everyone glp-1, it doesn't matter. french fries are good. >> their commentary on restaurant traffic. >> wasn't that incredible? >> it was not great. >> again, that's why i wanted to see this number. i was concerned, well, maybe people aren't dining out, but then i kind of -- i had conagra on yesterday saying, people are back in the frozen food aisle. they're not cooking themselves -- not "to serve man," but i just find this number is so important, because what it says is, don't freak out about tepid restaurant.

don't freak out about tepid supply chain-induced used cars. we're fine. providing that there's nothing going on overseas. >> it's weird. for every lamb, there's a conagra. for every ulta, there's a kohl's. >> that's tom kingsbury. kohl's. remember, they brought in sephora. now, sephora's lvmh, arguably the company that's doing better than anyone in the world, they're up against ulta. when we come back, some m&a in the mix today, closer look at j&j's $12.5 billion deal for shockwave. nice batch of upgrades today. eden, sofi, axp, pepsi. we'll see if these gains can hold throughout the day given some of the concerns jim has outlined so far. we're back in a moment. [alarm beeping] amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door.

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i was supporting the interests of the company, not my personal interests, and defending what the company and the board was doing as opposed to defending myself against criticism from nelson and the people who were backing him. >> disney's bob iger yesterday telling david faber he stressed what was best for the company when it came to the proxy fight against nelson peltz. this was the story, jim, until the selloff yesterday. >> yeah, look, very, actually -- i was kind of prurient because you do have people with big egos, i think everyone would say that both sides had egos. i do think that the -- the lesson of this is that bob iger's really tough.

he did not just sit there and talk it. when i talked about distraction, he really distracted himself. he was not going to lose this money, his own time. he's tougher than it looks. the index funds, i thought, were going to roll and go with iss and go with peltz, but i think ira was incredibly persuasive. >> almost got to 120-ish. can you separate the decline from the tape yesterday? >> look, it was flirting with 120, $121, and i think people felt my interview with nelson, it didn't sound like he was dumping the stock. last time we had this and he got out, he was on the show, boom, sold a lot. there's always this, how much is really trian, how much is ike perlmutter, but i didn't think that -- i don't think this had anything to do with nelson. i think people felt that, you know what, iger means business,

and iger actually has a plan, and he's -- and therefore, peltz would be wrong to dump. but i think pettus stays. i think ike stays. ike perlmutter. the stock was doing well, and it was just a selloff that took everything down. >> right. jim mentions the discussions about how ego played a role in the proxy fight in his chat with nelson peltz yesterday. take a listen. >> the ego in the room didn't allow for it. and you have seen that over and over again, as i have. and once people get ego in check, good things happen, and i want to tell you, david taylor at png, who they fought me tooth and nail, david taylor never allowed his ego to get the best of him, and he and i wound up to be great friends. the company did phenomenally well. it went from the 70s to $160

while i was there, and while he was ceo. so, let me tell you, the ego is the issue. >> at this point, are you looking to see, in june, how password-sharing develops? can they recreate some of what netflix has done already? >> we told people to sell. we sold some. travel trust on monday. >> of disney. >> yeah, we told them to lighten up some more. we weren't allowed to because of our restrictions. told them to sell into the strength yesterday. get your position lower, not because of anything having to do with iger versus peltz but because it's a lousy market for linear tv. sometimes it doesn't matter how good you are. look at how -- warner brothers. i mean, fox was up great today, but this is a horrible group, and i think this is the best house -- arguably, comcast, work for them, these are good houses in neighborhoods that really are hell. so, i just said, listen, you can't -- as good as iger might be, and as tough as he might be,

it's a theme park play, because i don't know whether they can turn around espn. what happens if andy jassy says, you know what, if we can -- if we take the nba contract and just bid it up, you wouldn't even notice that they'll bid it up, then maybe more people will tune in, and it will be great. that is not the discussion they have at these -- the other places are existential. andy jassy is ag ssaying, i lik basketball. >> it's a play thing. meanwhile, netflix at a street high. >> apple, plaything. disney, existential. >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell on this final session of the week. as we said, coming up in about ten minutes, nec director lael brainard with fit acon rsreti from the white house about this morning's jobs report.

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visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. let's get cramer's "mad dash" as we continue down to the bell. >> stacy, very thoughtful person, he was as savage as i've ever heard an analyst be about intel this morning, called intel

see you in 2030. i just want to read this one sentence. he goes, "why do they do this to themselves? intel's story over the past 20 years has been one of dashed expectations from outlandishly bullish targets to key product delays to rampant channel stuffing, leading to an eventual abject collapse." i think you want to steer clear of this, and stacey represents the now conventional wisdom, but he's willing to tell the truth, which is that gelsinger has simply -- one of the most suboptimal ceos we've seen in some time. >> is he on the wall? >> yeah. >> he is? >> yeah. i got to put him on the wall. >> really? >> yeah, i think i have to. this is an extraordinary moment where they just stopped caring after making incredible claims, and i have been back and forth on that. i don't know what to say. this stacey piece may be the last nail.

i don't know who to say. i read this piece three times. i said, no. i mean, those things are what an executive should never be doing, and it's got the whole litany. i think we have to break out the wall. maybe this weekend, i'll talk it over with my wife, because she says, you got to be a little more upbeat. but last night, i'm serving drinks, and i have my nvidia hat on. she says, take that hat off. that stock does nothing but go down. i mean, nvidia! i said, have you looked at it? thing goes down every day. tough market. >> what have you done for me lately, jim? that's great. we'll watch intel. there's some samsung news as well regarding their investment in texas. don't forget, you can catch us any time, anywhere, just listen to and follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast.

>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. j&j taking steps to ramp up its cardiovascular portfolio. the company's agreed to require medical device maker shockwave, $335 a share, $12.5 billion in cash. deal expected to close in the middle of this year, jim, sort of ups their exposure in the

cardiovascular world. >> now, dilutive. actually, pretty terribly dilutive, but one of the things that jensen huang from nvidia told me is that j&j wants to own the operating room, and this is perfect for j&j. they are filled with a.i. it's a very good move if you want to own the operating room. these guys bust, basically, hard arteries going into the heart. it's an exciting bit of technology. at the same time, j&j stock has been a horror show, and this will not help. people are going to say, what are they doing? they haven't been able to clean up the lawsuits with talc, and now they're doing this, and we're not getting our bang for the buck, and i do like technology. i know that they have a lot of really good a.i. in the operating room, but another $13 billion, and what's it going to get them? >> stock has underperformed peers lately. we'll watch that to see if this

works any kind of magic. let's get the opening bell here at the cnbc realtime exchange. at the big board, it is jean maker levi strauss and company. and at the nasdaq, it's mexican hotel developer global investments. levi, we talked about earlier in the week. >> this was a remarkable quarter. someone came on our network, recommended shorting the stock. it was one of the worst calls ever, because they didn't realize that there are denim cycles, and right now, we are in a denim cycle for not just bottoms but tops. it's extraordinary. levi's is ready. michelle gass had the right inventory. there we go. levi. these guys crushed it in europe. congratulations to michelle for a correct read of the consumer and the direct-to-consumer business here is extraordinary. they have -- who knows the --

michelle just took it over and chip did a remarkable job. this is a terrific situation. couldn't have happened to nicer people. stock was up big yesterday. congratulations. they read the consumer correctly, and pvh did not, including in europe. >> right. interesting, we mentioned some of the upgrades we got today. the upgrade of axp got some attention regarding the consumer, yeah? >> well, look, they have been a great read. one of the things that happened, when that stock was about 170 or $160, they had a week -- steve squeri is fantastic. giving you up to date information about the month of october, and then the rest of the months were very strong, and so boom, they've been a great indicator. travel is still good. booking.com is still good. people want the airlines. they like delta, and royal caribbean is the winner when it comes to cruise ships. >> meantime, things that are working at the open here, jim, gains in amazon today. mizuho, top pick. >> that was a nice piece.

the stock has been weaker of late. this mag seven is just completely lost. we got to stop talking about -- i was a big mag seven guy early on. that thing's just -- it's a jailbreak. these stocks are not correlating at all, including alphabet, every day, doing something -- alphabet to buy hub spot rumor? hub spot is a very overvalued salesforce.com, formerly good partner, and you know, what is going on with a company where they actually let people seem to know that they're going to buy something? all that does is make you pay more. i wonder if alphabet is in an existential crisis. >> there's the hub spot stuff. there's the debate about whether charging for a.i. search is good or bad. >> they have the worst one. gemini is so boring. it's a powerpoint. go to claude. claude is conversational. actually, better conversation than a lot of, you know, some of my close friends. >> there's some think pieces on the tape today arguing that youtube is 30% undervalued and deserves to stand on its own. >> well, if they could tell the story, and if they let you know

how well the nfl's doing, and if they stop running pictures of cats in the fourth quarter. that's what they did in the commercials. they run pictures of cats. i like cats. i was once purina's cat spokesperson, so i like cats. but really, is that what they do? cbs is charging a million dollars for 20 seconds, and they're running pictures of cats and telling you not to stress. >> we'll watch alphabet. you mentioned, in mag seven world, apple, this filing reveal revealing some layoffs of 600-plus. >> i see that foxconn might be doing more building. last night, i had a chartist, carolyn, who is really not like apple, saying, we're catching a -- i know, don't laugh, fibonacci bottom. i happen to be a believer in fibonacci, a medieval mathematician that did develop things like, you know, on cauliflower, believe it or not. >> of course. >> seashells have it.

the cauliflower is incredible. >> but that doesn't mean you're, like, racing to buy this, jim. >> no, i just -- let's get through this stupid weekend. it's terrible what's happening in the middle east. it's just terrible. i don't like to comment on politics or any of that stuff, but i just think there's a -- we have powder kegs everywhere. we got russia back full strength. we got this narrative about the east part of taiwan and whether that's been hurt and whether the chinese are going to make a move while yellen's there, because that was what they did with gina raimondo, our great secretary of commerce, and they were busy attacking us, cyber, while she was there. the tensions are a little too great for me and i will feel better at 5:00 a.m. when i wake up to watch sara speak to janet yellen. >> on monday. in terms of israel, the idf dismissing some commanders on the death of these wck workers. if, though, jim, there was some move to create more civilian

safety, create more passages for aid, would that be necessarily equity bullish? >> you know, i hate -- it's like human life versus -- yeah. it would be. but it would be reflected as oil going down. and if oil went down, i think it would be -- that would make people feel like, wait a second, we're overdoing worry. i know that opec plus has been very good. i'm trying -- i have rusty braziel on. a lot of people are mad about biden and the lng. >> yes. >> 2028. people cutting back on that. but i think oil is front and center. if oil goes higher today, you can't buy it, because oil is saying, we're not going up because of demand here. we're going up because of concern about supply. so, let's get oil to where it has to go. that's what i'm mostly worried about. i'm watching oil like a hawk,

because that destroyed yesterday's market. >> more discussion this morning on wti. golden cross, first since august, last one we had. you saw crude jump about 20%. >> i know. >> we are on pace for the second weekly gain for oil. we mentioned "the journal" piece today, although shell, upping their q1 gas production guidance today, jim. >> i don't know why that is. there's just no -- there's not a single pipe in the west. we had some goods -- pippa stevens had a good piece yesterday about this notion of natural gas. there's this surfeit. that's in western. that's not the eastern hub. but there is -- that's just a bad market. it's a terrible market. of course, 30% of our electricity is powered by that. we know that from a stock that came and went, which is vernova, a stock that i like, ge, but the difference between nat gas and oil has never been like this.

>> maybe we'll ask lael brainard in a few minutes about whether the spr belongs back in the conversation, if you can jawbone producers or opec instead if summer ends up being difficult. >> i just want to know why -- we know that -- we know that the per permian -- can do 14. i want to know why they're not doing 14. >> we got to 13.3. >> look, the relationship between the president and the oil companies is the worst i've ever seen a president -- >> although the oil companies have made tons of money under biden. it's a -- a lot's been written about that. >> that's absolutely true, but they don't speak that much. >> right. >> i mean, biden is committed to climate. doesn't seem to realize that so is chevron, so is exxon. they're not committed to climate destruction. they're spending a lot of money on carbon capture, exxon being the leader. so, i don't know. it's a fractured market, but the main thing is that we can pump 700,000 more, and it would be great if we did for the american

consumer. >> watch uber today, one of the top gainers, up almost 2%. jeffries todays to $100. we mentioned the netflix pivotal street high. snow, rosenblatt, ups to buy $185. >> i question that. now, ramaswamy's in there. he's terrific. he came from google. absolutely a topnotch guy but not a sales person. there were people, the narrative going around about snowflake is they don't have a.i. this is a databricks private company against what slootman developed at snowflake. but i think the jury's out. you got to find out -- i mean, this is a new ceo. now, he's not gelsinger. new ceo. very competent, technologically. we don't know about sales, and that's a sales job. you have to sell. >> we've been talking, prior to the selloff yesterday, about market broadening. this is the third positive call this week that i saw, jim, on eaton as rbc goes to outperform, barclay's upgraded monday,

deutsche, catalyst by tuesday or wednesday. >> it's a big position for our travel trust. >> really? >> yeah. because they're in -- they and vertiv, which was at one point at $3, the spac that dave coaty took charge of, but eaton is 15% datacenter. they have five megacap trends, all of them exactly where you want to be. whether it be aerospace, whether it be the grid, they're fixing the grid, and they're doing datacenter, and they are in the sweet spot, and they're in cleveland, and they're not promotional, and all i want to do is get them on. i want to get them on, because they are the nvidia of metal bending. >> i was going to say, is it an example of us moving from picks and shovels to a broader set of providers and suppliers in the sort of a.i. datacenter universe? >> first page of their deck is about reindustrialization. reshoring and reindustrialization. they are at the heart of what csx would say are the 300 mega

projects that are going on right now in this country, of which -- huge projects. it's like what china used to be. like, we're growing like, man, we're doing a lot of things. the employment numbers, we need datacenter. your going to have 5% increase in the grid use year after year after year, and eatonis one of the only companies that seems to understand, we got get on the case. caterpillar too. >> we mentioned samsung earlier. that's an interesting chart. big piece in "the journal," doubling their investment in texas. big step in terms of the u.s. efforts to make the u.s. a maker of leading chips. >> they know how to build, and they also know how to call lam research, and they know how to call applied materials and kla. the one thing that people don't understand, other than asml, we own the intellectual property. it's the last thing in the food chain. if you ask morris chang, great taiwan semi, what do you make in america that's so good? we make the capital equipment. semiconductor capital equipment. and samsung seems to know how to

do it. we'll wait to see what intel knows to do. my sources indicate they don't know what to do. >> even with all the tailwinds they've gotten from u.s. industrial policy? >> i think that i don't want secretary raimondo to be on the hot seat about this, but intel's one to do it, and intel was a great manufacturer, but that was a different intel. it was just a different intel. they used to have a couple of people on a s.w.a.t. team that could put plants anywhere. used to be an intel hawk. i went to the israeli plant on saturday where no one works, which is pretty amazing, and then i went to the opening of the irish plant, and they just knew how to build. these guys, not so clear. it's a construction project. >> right. >> and then after that, you bring in lam, bring in asm, and it seems like samsung knows what to do, and taiwan semi really doesn't. samsung is a great ally. great what they're doing. >> yeah. >> really great. boeing's an interesting story today, jim. reuters has a piece that they and airbus are exploring ways to

divvy up the spirit operations. >> well, i mean, dave calhoun was very good at expressing that boeing has to get control of the fuselage, which means they have to get control of spirit. i remember when -- unfortunately, i'm old enough to remember when they spun spirit off. it was a low-margin business they didn't want, so now they have to take it back because the quality of spirit is second rate. they're not going to say that. i mean, obvious, meaning this was the door issue. boeing has to find a way to be able to pay for that without really hurting the stock, and i don't know how they do that. i think they have to do it with stock. they don't have the balance sheet. >> right. it's been a difficult challenge for boeing. as we mentioned, calhoun not running for re-election on the board of caterpillar. gains holding here at the open. s&p is up about 21. dow is up almost 80. watch bonds as well. not so much data today after the jobs number, but plenty of fed speak yet again. collins already on the tape,

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joining us outside the white house today is national economic council director lael brainard. director brainard, great to have you back. good morning. >> good morning. >> we've covered the headline number quite a bit, but i have to imagine you're happy, not just with the annual age growth, near a three-year low, but participation highest since november. >> yeah, i think this is a really very encouraging report. it suggests that the u.s. economy can continue expanding with the labor market in a really balanced way. we've now surpassed the 15 million new job milestone since president biden has taken

office, and we're doing it with unemployment down below 4% for over two years. inflation, having come down dramatically over that time, and as you said, the labor supply has expanded. labor force participation is really strong, up relative to pre-pandemic. those are all really good outcomes for american workers, the american economy. >> director brainard, jim cramer. thank you so much for coming on. just narrative-wise, are we emphasizing whether the fed will cut or not way too much, versus what is really just a fantastic economy for those of us that have been around since '78 and '79, '80? you have what you want. you've got good job growth, not a lot of inflation. why are we focused on rate cut? shouldn't we just be focused on the fact that this is a good job market with good profits? >> yeah, so, as you know, i'm

very cautious to respect the fed's independence, so i don't comment on their policy, but i will agree with you that this is a really nice economy with good strong job creation in the context of ongoing moderate wage growth and moderating inflation, so that's the kind of economy where i think you can see the sort of soft landing that people did not think was possible just a year ago. and there's every reason to think, with productivity as high as it's been, with business investment, with growth, with jobs creation, inflation coming down, that the economy can continue expanding, creating jobs and opportunities in a balanced way. >> do you recall any time when we had health care adding good jobs, government, construction adding a lot of jobs, leisure and hospitality adding a lot of

jobs, social assistance. retail. i mean, this is the most balanced slate of hiring i can recall. >> yeah, this is a very broad-based, ongoing growth story in the u.s. economy. we're continuing, of course, to seeing investing in america in important areas that will build for the future, like green energy, and in areas like high technology, semiconductors, so the broader picture, as you say, i think, is very encouraging. >> i wonder, director, how you're thinking about immigration. the fed chair did mention it. goldman has a report out today. 2.5 million immigrants last year, close to a two-decade high. it is helping the labor force, but how do you perceive it when it's so politically loaded right now? >> well, look, we are seeing just a very attractive job

market with loads of good opportunities, and that's why we've seen participation increasing. a lot of that's come from people coming off the sidelines back into the labor market because wages have been stronger, and we've also seen a lot of people for good opportunities. we're doing a lot of investing in good jobs and apprenticeships and pathways to the middle class that are inclusive of but don't require a four-year degree, and so there are good opportunities. of course, immigration is always a part of our labor market's dynamism. we've got pathways to legal immigration that are so important for our labor market. >> but will you please disclose how many work permits you've issued? we don't know. the economists don't know. we also don't know what's the real numbers because the census bureau has not accounted for

immigrants properly. can you give us a sense on work permits right here, right now? >> i can't give you any specific numbers. i'm looking at the jobs market from this morning. you're looking at the same numbers. what we see is that the employment to population ratio is very strong, close to record highs. labor force participation, the number of americans participating in this really good labor market under president biden very high and allows the economy to keep growing, and businesses to keep expanding, and consumers to remain resilient. those paychecks are better than they've seen. all of those things bode well for the continued expansion in this economy. >> finally, director, i'm sure you know the oil has gotten the market's attention. year on year gasoline retail prices no longer negative going back 12 months. to what degree are things,

options like job owning or the strategic reserve entering the conversation again? >> gas prices at the pump are so important for american families, and a big focus of president biden we are pleased that gas prices have come down by 1.40 relative to that peak that was caused by russia's invasion of ukraine. as you say, we are watching carefully to make sure that those gas prices at the pump don't go up, don't squeeze americans, and, you know, we're going to continue monitoring and making sure that we see the continued strong production here and around the world. it's going to be necessary for that important price at the pump in the months to come. >> director brainard on energy, immigration, the jobs number today, have a good weekend. thanks so much. good to see you. >> good to see you. thank you. >> lael brainard. market holding in there.

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her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an onunderlying issue.t. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. s. let's get to jim and stop trading. >> talk about eaton looks good and america's best looks good.

they don't want pepsico. jefferies makes a franchise pick to say it's never been this cheap, they can't recall, europe is strong, price target 209, incredible. they just -- when i see that, i see the economy is good, don't buy pepsi. buy something else in the economy. that's something i want to have. i feel director brainard could have run more with that. i don't have to do her job. >> that's right. speaking of oil, which we spoke about with her, you're going to talk about it today. >> i have rbn. the foremost -- they're the foremost energy consultants, and i got to ask rusty what's going on. we have to worry about april 8th when it comes to solar and our country. >> yes. >> that's not a joke. >> have you seen maps of the country where the airbnbs are fully booked? just huge strip going across. >> all i care about is that solar somehow works that day because we got a lot of solar in this country, and it better be

with you. maybe that's what we need. have great weekend. >> see you tonight. "mad money" 6:00 p.m. when we come back ldn'gomas jan hatzius on the road, will talk about what's at stake for the fed when we return.

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with mike santoli and leslie picker, live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. sara is in china ahead of a huge interview monday with the treasury secretary who, of course, is meeting with economic regulators there today and this weekend. we'll get more on that later on this hour. markets trying to claw back some of yesterday's losses. dow up 120, about 20 points shy of 5200 on a day where the jobs number does crush expectations even as the unemployment rate falls and participation improves. >> good news is good news today. we'll see. we're 30 minutes into the

trading session. here are three big movers we are watching. shares of lamb weston after announcing a software issue wil impact their results. the food processor saying a slower than expected transition to a resource planning tool has affected its ability to fulfill orders. shares down 2.6%. apple laying off more than 600 employees according to a filing with state officials in california while the filing didn't specify projects where jobs were being cut, the move comes weeks after apple canceled a long-running project to build an electric self-driving car. johnson & johnson is buying shockwave medical for $12.5 billion in cash or around $335 per share. they will give j&j use of treatments for heart disease. j&j not moving, up about 1.8%. >> the economy adding 303,000 jobs in march, 100,000 more than

the street expected. steve liesman is here with more on what it all means. hey, steve. >> carl used there, crushed, trounced, call it a big gain in jobs in march and beat of expectations leading to doubts about how much and when the fed may cut rates. whether it needs to cut or should cut at all. non-farm payrolls 303 versus an estimate of 200,000 up from the prior month 270. this story at the top of the range we were talking about the last couple days would make the fed consider the job market was not loosening but heating up. the unemployment rate did tick down, right on the estimate but down a tick from the prior month. average hourly workweek up 0.1%. 34.3 hours. participation rate healthy at 62.7. richmond fed president tom barkin on the wire calling it a quite strong jobs report. i think that's pretty good, that characterization. net revisions to the two prior months adding 22,000 jobs. boosting the three-month average

to a pretty red hot 276,000. jobs were concentrated. health care, 72, government up 71. the biggest chunk was local government. leisure and hospitality has been a big job adder since the pandemic. construction up 39. i think a large -- that's a large chunk that reflects government spending on infrastructure, specialty contractors, nonresidential. the debate around this number whether it's inflationary or the rise in the labor force means there are enough workers to fill the demand for labor. the monthly gain was 0.35% when it came to wages but the 4.14% year over year is the smallest we've seen since june of 2021. that's kind of been coming down or trending downwards. you can see all of this reducing the market's pricing for that june cut. now down at 55% from 65 before the number. july maybe a little bit in play, 80% down to 73%. fed officials have suggested

somewhat less concerned with hot top line payroll growth numbers because they're focused on how growing immigration has boosted the labor force. there's a body for a job. not necessarily inflationary. there is a limit to how much tolerance they may have. forecast for rate cuts has been based on the idea inflation would continue to decline. the job market would come into balance. that looks tilted towards the tight side. >> powell has said that a continued strong job market is not going to get in the way of their inclination to cut, and 55% market based odds for a june cut, close enough to a coin flip, it seems to just be funneling all of the focus on the actual inflation numbers of which we're going to get more soon. >> i think you're right on that, mike. look, if you're uncertain about what's going to happen in the future, is inflation going to

come down or not come down, even if you have some tolerance for jobs at 200,000 or 225 or 250, you got to say that when you do 300, the economy is not loosening up, the job market is not loosening up, not getting easier, so on the margin i think that tends to make you less optimistic about your forecast for inflation. >> steve, thanks. we'll talk a lot more this morning about that as we dig further in today. the dow is on pace for its worst week since march of last year and the s&p its worst week since october. mike, really helped us understand the close last night. you did say closing on the low has got your attention. >> yes. it was a little bit of a change in character for this market. for one thing, you didn't get the buyers of the dip coming in before we got to measly 2% decline. we haven't had one since october. just the idea that there's enough confusion as we were just discussing about what the fed is going to do it, why it might,

and when it might nobody has great conviction on that. it drains a little bit of conviction out of that side of the equation. oil spiking, seemingly on geopolitical concerns, is never welcomed. you have a market that was in the -- almost in the search for some excuses to back off after such a strong market. all that being said, i've been saying for a while that the story in retrospect is usually not the bull market end because the economy was too good. usually isn't the way it goes. i do think you have a strong bull market. everybody coming in this week was saying when the market is this broad and steadily strong, persistent rallies, they usually are not the way the market peaks. what does it mean we need to do now in terms of skimming the froth, resetting expectations, getting the sentiment back a little bit and watching bond yields and seeing if that's the trip wire because you have oil and bonds at the upper end of what's been a benign comfort zone for now. i don't think the absolute level of yields matters a ton, but it

what it implies about the direction of inflation or gets disorderly on the upside and we talk about supply driven yield pops again as we do last fall. >> is that your read through to today's action, it's less of a response to a hotter than expected jobs market, and maybe just kind of a relief from what we've seen the last two days? >> it was like a straight down buyers left yesterday afternoon. we've regained not half of what we lost in the last two hours yesterday. i do still think you have to prove that you're going to be more resilient here. it's about 10 points, 15 points up on the s&p before you get back to this 20-day average. the tactical stuff is still in the -- is in focus i think right now. but a good economy, you know, is something that you can live with if yields are going to be higher and the fed more patient. you prefer to have it that way if the economy is performing well. the real reason you would worry about the fed doing little or nothing, i think, is if you think the macro data is a head fake and not going to hold up. if it's going to hold up you can

wait a little bit longer. >> pantheon looking at nifb hiring intentions. charted over nfp it's going to imply a slowdown. >> it does imply a slowdown. a lot of things pushing that direction. on the other hand i think that the important thing is not that the -- the fed has told you they're not targeting the economy. they're not trying to jack the unemployment rate up and they still think that rates above 5.25 for fed funds is too high for the inflation rate we have right now. their inclination all else being equal, we have to get a token cut in there, start the process and then you're more normalizing than you are helping the economy. >> a token cut. i like that. >> yes. maybe another one. >> and maybe another token or some real movement on that front. our next guest thinks core pce will fall which should be enough to prompt a first fed rate cut at the june meeting. jpmorgan asset management chief global strategist david kelly joins us at post nine.

always great to have you. steve was laying out something kind of different that we're seeing in the swaps market, a further delay in a rate cut. you think june is on the stable? >> i think it is. it's getting closer. we need to guess if we get one bad surprise in cpi it's gone. but i think the fed should do it. i agree with what you're saying. this is not about easing policy but normalizing policy. everybody should feel pretty good about where the economy is. great momentum, but it looks like we're able to have strong job growth, strong economy and inflation gradually coming down. that's great. but we have a monetary policy which is demonstrably tight, and it's not as if the economy -- what if we get hit by a shock and the fed has to cut rates a lot? whenever the fed has to cut rates a lot it never works out well. i would rather they get on a path of gradually bringing down rates, once a quarter, nothing going on here, people don't have to get worried about it. bring rates down slowly to get

back to a more normal level. the economy is performing well and doesn't need monetary policy to be too tight or loose right now. >> you're not concerned about the risk that has been pointed out by certain hedge fund managers, bank leaders who have said that, you know, the risk is that you ease too quickly and risk inflation rearing its ugly head. do you feel confident we've stamped out inflation? >> i think core inflation is coming down. the things keeping core inflation right now are shelter and auto insurance and those are both lagging pieces of inflation and they're going to come down over the course of 2024. i think the core will come down. we could get a spike from energy, but that doesn't tend to last or tend to add momentum to the u.s. economy. i feel pretty good about the idea that inflation is coming down. what's more, i don't think the tight monetary policy is really slowing inflation. it's, you know, but it is wrong for capital markets. you need to get to a reasonable level of interest rates. there's no reason not to. i would rather the fed start in june until wait until later in

the year. >> we talked tried to get lael brainard to talk about immigration, but it's impacting the labor force in a good way, but is it not slowing down the disinflation in housing we would expect in. >> net net it is a positive for the economy. rich irony people think about immigration and chaotic way it's occurring as the biggest problem in this country. it's our safety valve because we're seeing these immigrants, once they get a notice to appear in court, they may not see for five years, their case may not be decided, but after six months they're eligible to work and flooding into leisure and hospitality and restaurants and day care and that's filling in the low end here. it's holding, allowing wage growth to come down as steve said to 4.1%. the lowest since 2021. that's -- a lot of that is immigration. no way we would be doing 275,000 jobs per month with wage growth coming down and inflation gradually coming down if it weren't for immigration.

oddly enough, the united states is being helped by immigration, even though people think of it as our worst problem you mentioned the fuds funds rate where it is right now is the wrong spot for capital markets. in what way is that manifesting on the economy? >> i just think that federal reserve over the years has been too active on both sides here. a lot of the problems that we see in society, a lot of the fact that young people cannot buy a house, has to do with 15 years of keeping rates abnormally low. the rates are high and, you know, it could cause some problems in regional banking and problems elsewhere, but my real concern is something could hit the economy and now you have the rate, obviously, in the wrong place. >> yeah. >> and there's no right time to be in the wrong place and then they have to cut and bring rates down. everybody freaks out. much better to get to a normal point. the federal reserve is too active in the long run. they should not try to micro manage this economy. this economy, quite, obviously, can look after itself. it does not need the federal reserve nursing it with rates

too high or too low. >> with rates where they are we're sitting here and kind of intensely focusing on every tenth of a percentage point in cpi or whatever it is, as if we can fine tune it to that degree when rates are up here. >> exactly. i get it if inflation is 9%, you have to do something about that. inflation 2 or 3, who cares. doesn't make any difference to people's lives as long as it stays steady, from 3 to 2, you don't need an abnormal monetary policy if that's where you are. 5.25, 5.5 is an abnormal monetary policy. >> mow had ham mad el ariane had a comment about fed communication, a play by play commentator in his view reacting to every bit, we turn to them the way i would turn to you in a booth calling a game. are they saying too much? >> i think jay powell is doing a good job in sticking to his messaging. i like what they do in the

official meetings. i don't really like a lot of the individual speeches they make between meetings because that is moving markets in a way that's probably not appropriate. i think it makes the job of frankly jay powell, very much wants to get to consensus and one thing will happen in june, a split vote, what's happening is the fed presidents are making speeches and feel like i have to stick with what i said, right. somebody is going to have to make a decision in june and i would rather have consensus and focus on the official communications after fomc meetings rather than speeches in between. >> really good point. thank you so much. >> any time. >> appreciate you being here. >> as we head to break, here's our road map for the hour. rough start to q2 as investors focus on the fed. goldman's chief economist joins us. >> communication services hitting those last seen in the dotcom area. one name powering that sector higher. >> the treasury secretary kicking off her trip in china

and that country's treatment of u.s. businesses. big show still ahead as "squawk on the street" continues after this. what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart!

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look at the communication services sector overall, that move, again, eclipsing some of those peaks that we saw early on in the past decade all the way back to the dotcom era. something to keep a close eye with regard to communication services and a consequential sector when it comes to stocks part of that magnificent seven. you look at the best year to date performers that have helped fuel that rise higher. shares of live nation, verizon, and disney, each of those stocks up anywhere from 10 to 30%. some of the best performers on a year-to-date basis. again, consequential to the move but it really comes down to the market cap victors, i guess if you want to put it this way. check out these names. it's alphabet, the parent company of google, meta platforms, and it's netflix. these are the three biggest stocks by market value in the entire sector and carry the most weight and then for alphabet, it's up 9% and that's been an under performer. meta up 48% and netflix up 29%,

helping along this morning after pivotal research put a street high $765 price target on that stock. if you want to pick out one stock that's been driving the gains, it has to be meta platforms. the second most valuable stock up 40%. the real fuel, mike, behind that move higher in communication services. i'll send things back over to you. >> thanks. we'll pick it up there with meta and outperformer this week as well as over the longer span. it is up over 5% this week trading at a high dating back to its ipo in may 2012. our next guest named the stock one of his top internet long picks. mark mahaney, head of internet research joins us now. you have a buy on meta. price target of 550. which raises the question not a ton of head room between where it is now, 523 and 550. i guess the question is there anything left for the market to be pleasantly surprised by here?

>> the truth is, mike, there probably isn't a lot. this is a small buy for us. you know, fully respect the move we have seen year to date and over the last 18 months. this is one of the biggest pivots i've seen in my 25-year career, a stock that corrects 90% and comes back to all-time highs. i think netflix and spotify will do the same thing. it's rare you see that. i think this is a compounder here. i think you can hold this multiple. i think, you know, 22, 23, 24 times earnings, something like that, for an asset that i think can sustain 20 plus earnings growth is legit and then longer term new growth drivers like whatsapp monetization, facebook marketplace and maybe virtual reality augmented reality with the reality labs business, maybe. there's things to stick around with. it's a smaller buy, no question about it. >> yeah. if you do think that netflix and spotify can do that, that round trip after the nasty selloffs, it must mean that you think 10%

plus upside in each one? netflix peaked around 700 or thereabouts. what's going to get it there? >> you remember what last peaked netflix. it was that -- the south korean drama thriller -- >> "squid game." >> thank you. i had forgotten what that was. anyway, it's coming again. we're going to see it again this year. that's one thing. it's a strong growth. step back on netflix, this is what's happening. you're getting back to $20 million a year sub-ads, an industry seeing rising and competitive intensity for three or four years until 2021, that's waning now. free cash flow is inflecting up for netflix and interesting new growth drivers out there. there are big growth drivers for netflix. paid sharing initiative which has worked out really well and this ad supported business. they took the best streaming business in the world and cut it by 30%. that creases the t.a.m. it's a small buy.

it's hard to find dislocated buys in tech. we should acknowledge that and be more modest in our long positions in tech. >> mark, earlier this week i was at the conference where i sat down with jericho capital, a long short equity fund that participates in the tmt space, he likes meta and the reason is he thinks that they're kind of ai targeted advertising monetization potential is just superior to their peers. i'm curious, based on your channel trex do you agree with that, the ability for ai to pinpoint certain ads at certain times of day, knowing the colors potentially that a user might like and be more likely to click on a certain ad? is meta kind of the best in class when it comes to using ai for advertising or do you think there are others throughout doing similar things that people should be paying attention to? >> i have nothing but respect for josh resnick, one of the

smartest investors i've worked with. i think he's dead right when it comes to meta. people are looking for the gen ai plays, what chip plays and infrastructure plays i can find. he's got the killer app winner off gen ai and it's meta. they used ai to completely revampp -- they were forced to -- revampp their ad check stack and they've used it to increase their -- improve their user stack. this has gone from a social media company to a media company the way they bring in the content. you've seen a rising engagement on the site. it was hard to see that and look at that about two years ago. you would have realized on a big correction you want to make this your biggest long. i think that call is absolutely right. if you're looking for the app play for ai it's meta. >> mark, it may not be dislocated in the sense it's been hit hard but alphabet, you know, it's made new highs but really trading roughly where it was two and a half years ago almost, and now trades at a

discount to meta which has been rare over history. how does that set up for you? >> so i prefer what you set up the question, google to meta. i changed about a month ago and it's the first time in three years i think i've preferred google over meta. they may -- they may screw this up. i think the steps are ahead of them. pay the dividend. you have $100 billion on your balance sheet. manage the costs more aggressively. they've been rising. a margin raising company for a couple years. people don't give them enough credit for that. they could commit to doing something like that. not every quarter but commit to that. those are two easy fixes to get the multiple high. they could match meta's multiple and you would have upside to the stock. the perception their gen ai road kill. i disagree with that. i think they could show you just how -- just as meta is how effective ai is on their platform. >> thanks very much. >> tnk me.has,ik >> we'll be right back. s&p up about 0.5%.

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welcome back. a financial corporate governance news this morning we want to tell you about. proxy advisory firm glass lewis urging goldman sachs to separate its chairman and ceo roles. investors voted against a similar request last year with only 16% supporting this split. goldman said, quote, our governance committee needs the flexibility to determine the best structure for our firm and made clear a strong lead independent director alongside the chairman ceo role is most effective at this time. glass lewis recommending investors reflect the firm's executive pay plans. blackrock facing a push from an activist investor to split ceo and chairman roles. currently both occupied by larry fink. london based bluebell with a small stake about 0.1% want an independent chair to increase oversight of that firm there. blackrock saying in its proxy, quote, in his time as chairman and ceo blackrock has delivered end industry leading growth and

long-term financial returns for our shareholders including 9,000% total return since the ipo. the firm says fink as ceo and chairman is the, quote, most appropriate and effective leadership structure. this all comes as bank earnings season kicks off a week from today. blackrock as well the same warning with a slew of financial annual meetings shortly thereafter, guys. there's actually a bit of a tailwind from the higher interest rates that we've seen. >> oh, yeah. >> you know, especially as it pertains to what some see as more conservative q1 guidance. higher rates for longer could be a beneficial for net interest income, more so than a lot of people were expecting in q4. >> lot of people are breaking down which banks are going to update and which direction. there's different portfolios, yeah. >> earlier in the week, ubs cut bofa and called it a rate trap, meaning if the fed cuts earnings revisions go lower. if the fed stays higher for longer more concerns about the portfolio duration, right.

there's no way to win. >> bofa is unique in that boat because they have had these unrealized losses on their balance sheet for a while now due to the higher for longer interest rate environment, but yes, exactly. the lower interest rates could be good for kind of economic stability as well, just ensuring that we continue on this path. things have been really good. you've seen a decent upswing in stock prices. >> the q1 m&a blockbuster m&a data was pretty good. double the year ago period, right? >> yeah. >> at least a dozen, maybe a dozen deals above $10 billion. >> the green chutes. you will hear about green chutes. i can almost guarantee it, that that will be a key line of questioning -- >> maybe more than chutes, we'll see. >> yeah. >> feels like there's deals that have closing dates. >> i don't know if it's a forest yet, but maybe a garden at this point. >> small garden. >> small garden. >> when we come back, we'll talk

more about this better than expected jobs number and what it means. chief economist jan hatzius on more of what that means after the break. headlines on the wires about a 5.5 earthquake strike the greater new york area, new jersey region. we'll talk about that. less than a week away from the second installment of our cnbc franchise "cities of success" looking at strong examples of urban economic renewal in america. our latest episode about denver and boulder, colorado, premiers meursday at 10:00 p.m. eastern ti.

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if you felt it, we did too. the u.s. geological survey reporting an earthquake of 4.8 magnitude about five kilometers northeast of lebanon, new jersey. it happened during one of our guests, i think mark mahaney, and we all gave each other a look, as did the traders on the floor of the exchange.

>> a conversation about ai can have that effect. >> you thought subway, flyover, and then it was no, the whole building is moving right now. >> yeah. >> as long as there's no damage to yankee stadium. >> empire building says it's okay. >> i feel like yankee stadium is too. >> yeah. >> meantime, to bertha coombs and get the rest of the news. >> i didn't feel it at all. i read it on the news. but here's your cnbc news update. the israeli military dismissed two senior officers today. the decision followed by a probe into a strike earlier this week that killed seven world central kitchen aid workers in gaza. the idf found errors and violations of protocols, which led forces to repeatedly hit the aid convoy. meanwhile, the chief of the united nations called the humanitarian situation in gaza desperate, as he appealed for an immediate cease-fire this morning. israel committed to opening additional aid routes intothe

enclave hours after president biden warned israel to take immediate steps to address civilian harm or face consequences. and new federal data shows more be than 68,000 guns were illegally trafficked through unlicensed dealers in the u.s. from 2017 to 2021. some of those guns were used in nearly 370 shooting cases according to the atf. attorney general merrick garland ordered the report, the first in-depth analysis of firearm trafficking investigations in more than 20 years. carl, back over to you. >> thanks so much. bertha coombs. futures as leslie mentioned now pricing in two fed rate cuts this year after stronger than expected jobs number today. goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius joins us not at post nine but on the ground in lake cuomo in italy at the conference. jan, it is great to have you. i guess first your thoughts on headline and how much should we

appreciate some of the internals like annual wage growth and participation? >> look, it was a relatively uncomplicated strong report with a strong trend on payrolls and another upside surprise relative to consensus expectations, small drop in the unemployment rate, and a good increase in household employment after some weakness there. i think on the economic activity side, this is very unambiguous, but as you say, the wage numbers have been decelerating and the month-to-month numbers are, you know, sometimes up, sometimes down, but the trend has been decelerating, despite the strong labor market. i think that's very encouraging for those of us who are looking for inflation to move back to 2% before too long. >> jan, you've talked in the

past about paths to cuts. one, of course, is a job market deterioration. that doesn't seem to be happening in the near term, but the other is inflation coming down materially. how does today's report kind of renew even more focus on next week's cpi number? >> i think the cpi number is going to be probably more important than the payroll number. you know, the possibility, though never likelihood in our view, of a weaker jobs market, getting the fed to cut more quickly, you know, i think that's sort of off the table and may cut is off the table with these numbers, already close to off the table before this, so it's really going to be about inflation. if inflation comes down further and, you know, the year-on-year rate has trended down, core pce

inflation is 2.8% now, despite the higher month-on-month numbers over the last couple months, but if the basic trend of decelerating inflation, if that stays in place, then i think we will see a cut bey the middle of the year by the june meeting. we do need to see those inflation numbers kind of settle down the frayed nerves at -- on the fomc among some people who have been talking more hawkishly. >> jan, earlier this week there was a lot of attention on the fact that the ism manufacturing indicators ticked back into expansion territory. they've been, you know, dormant and weak and a drag on the economy for the better part of two years and now with the strong jobs market, you assume the consumer side of the economy is going to hold up even if it seems like there's been some pockets of fatigue there. does this mean the overall economy is reaccelerating in your view, or is it essentially just at a steady state?

>> i think it's at a steady state. the economy is doing very well and growth is, you know, we think, for the year as a whole, probably close to 3% or close to 2.5% on the fourth quarter to fourth quarter basis. very solid performance. but i don't see an acceleration. i see steady growth with demand growing at a healthy pace. supply actually growing at an even faster pace if you look at some of the signs of labor market rebalancing. i think they're telling you that while growth is strong, it's not the sort of growth that's going to create higher inflation. i think it's very compatible with inflation coming down. supply is so strong. >> indeed. i know, i think your q1 tracker is at 2.5. actually in line with atlanta

this time. a little hotter than bofa at 2.0. thoughts on cpi next week? what's going to be important to keep in mind? >> well, i think ultimately what we care about is pce, but most of the information about the pce release comes in the cpi and then shortly after the ppi. for core pce, we think we'll go back down to a monthly 0. 2% rate and on the cpi is probably going to be a little bit higher than that. it's got higher wage on the housing components on rent and owners equivalent rent, which we think will come down, but probably come down gradually. yeah, i think the implications for core pce that's what we're going to be focused on and we'll have a reasonable mark to market or mark through the data after cpi and ppi.

>> definitely one of your best live shots, jan. we're all jealous. gorgeous backdrop. hope you have some fun this weekend and really appreciate the effort to join us today. jan hatzius, goldman sachs. >> i look forward to the cuomo channel checks on high-ended inflation to come. quick programming note, a conversation you don't want to miss on monday. our own sara eisen live from beijing with treasury secretary joe janet yellen. coverage begins at 5:00 a.m. eastern. markets in the green on the heels of that jobs report. a quick check on where fds aunre flowing next. back in a moment. ♪ ("tosca, act ii: vissi d'arte" by maria callas) ♪ ♪ (orchestra del teatro alla scala, milano) ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ (cat meowing)

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indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire >> i was supporting the interest of the company as opposed to defending myself. checking in on the markets here. you can see the nasdaq the outperformer up about .9% right now. the s&p up about 0.3%. to bob pisani with more on what's moving on the etf side of things. bob? >> i know everybody is worried

about lack of rate cuts but these job numbers are so strong and this is what motivates the stock market and we are seeing one of the best advance-decline lines i have seen in years. the s&p ad line has been up since november essentially, and is hitting new highs. this is a sign of a broad market move. i want to show you the leadership this year. it's not technology, in fact. it is some stuff that people don't pay a lot of attention to. it's energy first and foremost. great move up here throughout the year, and all sectors of the energy market have been moving. communication services are up. the biggest names like meta and disney and netflix are powering that particular sector, but overall it's strong. financials are bifurcated. insurance companies have been great because of pricing. credit card companies are great because consumer spending is strong. amex, visa, mastercard strong. some of the banks are up, not all of them. jpmorgan is having a great year up about 15% and citigroup is strong. industrial, every day i put up

at the nyse, general electric and eaton and parker hannifin, caterpillar global demand has been strong and materials. freeport. look at the laggards. the s&p up 8 or 9% for the year. technology is lagging. apple is down, intel is down, cisco is down, nvidia is up. it's bifurcated. health care has been a disappointment and i think that's because, you know, united, humana the hmos are down on higher utilization rates and pricing on medicare. consumer staples haven't been doing too much as well. consumer discretionary is doing well. the builders and hotels are up. amazon has had a great year. it's up 20%. tesla down 30% and that just weighs that down rather dramatically. you see real estate down there and that's continuing to have trouble, particularly in the commercial end of things. it's the energy etfs i want to point out. this is under owned space. people don't love energy, never have, since they got blown out

years ago. the moves here, the main s&p energy index up 16%. everything, oil refiners, i keep putting those up like valero up 16%. the exploration production companies, conoco phillips having a great year. oil services, the halliburtons, they lag, capital intensive, up 12%. this group is under loved an not getting a lot of flows. that's where the returns are this year. finally, if you want a sense of when the market is trading or not, look at the momentum etf. this basically buys stuff that is moving in the last several months. so it owns broadcom and nvidia and meta, amazon. it rebalances a couple times a year. you see the move here for how much it's out performing. if you think that people are now starting to say forget about the leaders, i'm going to try to go into other areas, this would start falling apart. that hasn't happened yet.

guys, this is a sign to be to people still like these technology stocks, for example, that sort of overweight into this momentum sector and still aren't dumping it, even though things like energy are outperforming. energy doesn't have the love, the materials doesn't have the love that technology stocks have right now. guys, back to you. >> the flows of not yet chased those returns year to date and things like energy in the defensive, i wonder there is anything else getting -- for a while it seemed the equal weighted s&p was getting noticed and people were trying to sort of make that bet that market might broaden out. i wonder if there's any threads to pull in terms of what flows are telling us? >> yeah. number one flows on a sector basis remains technology, far and away. everything else is way, way down there. yes, mike, you know this. equal weight periodically has modest inflows and there are people who argue periodically

that the market should broaden out and it's a good way to play a market broadening out story and the rsp has done well this year. i'm just watching flows. i'm telling you the average investor does not get excited about broadening out in the market. they should. onshould. you know, on a mean reversion basis, they ought to, but they don't. we don't see big inflows in energy, we don't see big inflows in material. we still see inflows into treasury bonds. we still see inflows into corporate bonds, for example. those are continuing to happen because people love 4% and 5% yields. they are absolutely in love with that. as long as those yields in corporates and treasuries, particularly in the middle of the curve, the three to five to seven-year range stays in the 4% to 5% range, i think you'll continue to see inflows there. i wish people would give a little more love to something like energy. it makes a little more sense right now but it's hard to break people's habits. they have a bad taste in their

mouth. >> it's hard to get excited on the long-term prospects. thanks very much. as we head to break, check out the biggest gainers on the s&p for the week. it's led by ge aerospace, followed by marathon petroleum, meta is in there as well as newmont as a gold play.

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janet yellen not mincing words in guangzhou has she kicks off meetings with regulators. she'll be talking to sara eisen on monday. let's get to megan cosella with the latest. >> yellen just wrapped up her first full day of meetings in china and she's taking a tough stance so far. she told business leaders at that chamber event she is pushing chinese officials for clarity on certain economic policies and raising concerns on areas where they disagree. one of which is industrial overcapacity. it's been at the top of the list. it's a topic she raised in her bilateral remarks. yellen is telling chi he's officials that u.s. and other countries are concerned china's massive investment in solar activities is producing more than global markets can buy. chinese state media has pushed back on this before yellen's trip calling it a double standard. yellen, meanwhile, saying it's not a, quote, anti-china policy but an effort to protect global

markets from the impact she sees coming if beijing does not curb its investments. tough talk on china aside, yellen is making clear that the u.s. wants to keep the bilateral relationship going. >> president biden and i firmly reject the idea that the united states should decouple from china. a full economic separation is neither practical nor desirable. >> now, yellen says the other goal of this trip is to find areas of cooperation with china, including on climate and financial stability. guys? >> how do you -- megan, how do you stack up this trip relative to previous outreach in the past? what are the expectations in terms of tangible results coming from it? >> you know, the administration has been pretty clear not to expect major policy developments coming out of this trip but they are trying to manage the relationship. they're on firmer ground with

china than they were a few years ago so they want to make sure they're talking. raising concerns but keeping the door open. >> meantime, eu launchi ing pros of solar panel makers there. don't miss our sitdown with the treasury secretary with sara in beijing on "squawk on the street." coverage begins monday at 5:00 a.m. eastern time. (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go. the network more businesses choose. transplant received. at&t business. the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. and if you want a successful business,

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good friday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara picker. today's jobs number easily tops expectations. we'll talk about what it means for the fed. oil heading higher. we'll discuss the outlook for prices with bank of america's head of commodities as the firm hikes its forecast. the ev slowdown continues. rbc's auto analyst joins us with what might reignite demand over the long term. first, getting breaking headlines from the fed's lori logan. we turn to steve liesman. >> more hawkish talk from the fed. dallas fed presidentay