yields keep going higher and the housing market struggles again, you're all of a sudden going to be talking about the market doing the fed -- pushing against the fed. >> that's what i'm saying, and then a weaker economy, and whether we need rate cuts again. >> the circular -- >> over and over. we'll get fed minutes this afternoon. stale but interesting for clues. thank you, mike. that's going to do it for us. over to scott and "the halftime report." welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, the sell why have, that hotter than expected cpi unnerving the mancht the investment committee with me. joining me for the hour everybody is here at post 9. joe terranova, bryn talkington is in the house, steve weiss and jim lebenthal. let's check the markets. we're down about 500 on the dow, down across the board, as you know by now. yields are up. cpi was hotter than expected. i want to know from everybody today, bryn, what changed today for the outlook for the market, if anything?

if anything. >> i think everyone expecting to come in at 0.3, and that we're just going to cruise on and this rally is going to start back up were sorely mistaken. this last mile, this proverbial last mile we're talking about, i think may be longer than a mile. you look at core, and everyone likes to take them out, core ex-shelter, core ex, ex. i think as taking today's data point coupled with a strong manufacturing data and thursday's sell-off last week it does feel like this market is tired. it's consolidating. i think that earnings will be strong, but right now, i think really positioning as an investor or a trader, you need to think through certain sectors that you may have been overweight going to the next few months. i think you're going to continue to see weakness in certain sectors. >> jim lebenthal, our resident bull, really, as much as anybody has been for as long as anybody has been, anything change for

you today? your outlook have to be rethought? >> well, the direct answer to your question is, they're on the margin something changes. you have to push the rate cuts out a little bit. we're fixating on 2 instead of 3. forgive me, scott, i want to parse the comment. i have raised some cash over the past few weeks trimming in xp, trimming nvidia, selling boeing, so i have cash on the sidelines i'm ready to put to work. i came in, woke up this morning, i was actually ready to buy. i was waiting for that cpi report. when it came out, everything i wanted to buy started going down, and it's been going down ever since. so i'm sitting on my hands. i'm emblematic of the markets right now. i don't think this is a fatal company, but i would like the market to find its footing and then i'll come back in. right now today, there's absolutely no reason for me or any other participant to buy. >> so maybe, joe, we throw the whole fed cut time line and the

market's expectation of the time line into some bit of question. wolfe weighs in and says june looks off the table, but earnings remain solid. and the fact that you have an earnings outlook that remains solid and a fed chair who they expect to remain dovish in the months ahead, you'll get choppier trade. earnings are still going to be good. the economy is still going. powell is still going to be leaning dovish. we still believe, i think, the next move is a cut, not a hike at this point. doesn't change that in any way. do you agree with the way wolfe has this outlook? >> 100%. the federal reserve is looking for reasons to cut. today did not give them the reason to cut. we can debate why. we can point towards fiscal spending. we can say, okay, the next cut is not june. it's going to be july. remember, in january we were pricing in six or seven cuts in

2024. now we're down to two. does it change anything about the way you want to invest? i don't think so at all. if you look at today and up see the way the market is trading, it's consistent with the way the market has traded all year. i have not wanted to own real estate. today you don't want to own real estate. >> the home builders -- >> regional banks -- >> they're below the 50 day. >> utilities. >> the russell is the worst. to your point, right, rates spike or we get nervous about rates being higher for longer. where does it show up first? the russell. the russell is down 2.5%. >> it's okay today. moment sum is a factor. represented by nvidia and meta, when that's higher, that softens the blow as well. the a.i. halo is still there. i think the playbook for 2024 is firmly entrenched. >> all right, weiss, to you last but not least, obviously. anything change in your mind

from this read today? >> today is not a bad day. down 500, we're still talking about the market is down 1% plus,which is nothing given where we've come from. but it's not really changed from my investment case. i'm strictly bottoms up fundamental. of course i pay attention to rates. macro will influence bottoms up fundamental investing. but, to me, this puts any rate cut this year in doubt because i anticipate tomorrow's ppi being stronger than what the market is looking for, number one, and that's not even incorporating the run we've seen in commodities. so if you go out to the next numbers, you're going to continue to see hot numbers. so i think that's a mischaracterization of powell, frankly, saying he's dovish. he's neutral right now. he's not dovish. >> the last comments that he made were more dovish than not. they were. they were. >> okay, but still, his policy is neutral. forget about the words. look at where the policy is neutral.

>> some say the policy is too tight where it is now. >> why would they say that? the economy is still really strong. we just heard stronger earnings this quarter. that's not a good thing if you're looking for a cut because you still have inflation way above the target and going further away from the target. >> pce has been a much better read than cp or cpi. the fed fix 80s off pce. >> let's wait for the next pce number. >> now we ratchet everything up. it's lining the next one. the next one of these. the next one of those. >> exactly. the question is, do you think the fed will cut rates with a stronger economy than they anticipated, which powell talked about, with strong corporate earnings, evidence of that strong economy, and with inflation ratcheting up? >> well, it's not necessarily ratcheting up. your words up a tent hotter -- >> relative to expectation. it's the trend. don't forget, it's the trend.

>> the trend is still down. >> but now we're starting to see it move up. right? last month we saw numbers that were slightly hotter. and my view is from commodities, we're going to see a move even hotter. that's my concern. any rate cuts right now, if push comes to shove, i would say you'll get at least one. it's not a slam dunk, is my point. >> in about 40 minutes you will hear from the chicago fed president austan goolsbee and hear from richmond fed president t tom barkin. we can bring in our own steve liesman, our senior economics reporter, to game this out. i think it validates everything that all of these fed speakers have been saying day after day after day. no rush. we can afford to wait. maybe we'll do it later in the year. how would you assess what today does to how they think today? >> i think that's right. i believe it was steve weiss talking about this, you do have additional risk now, scott, risk

from two standpoints, one they don't cut at all, the other they have to reverse course. i don't think that's the next likely thing the federal reserve does. this is an important point, i think. the fed believes it's restrictive. if you look at where they are now, where they believe they're projected to go this year, i think i have a bar chart on this, and what they think the neutral rate is at 2.6%, the median, they think they're restr restrictive. they think the rates are currently in a place where maybe even a bit too high. the two numbers i think are the key. so relative to the left side of your chart where they're at and relative to where they believe the long run rate is, call it 3, 2 1/2 percentage points in there, even if inflation runs a percentage point hotter than they xpect, there's still room for them to believe they're restrictive. this is the underlying belief about why the fed believes rates can come down. >> right. >> the trouble is the optics of

this, scott, and the credibility issue which is that i do not believe the federal reserve will be cutting interest rates while the actual inflation numbers are stalled and not improving. >> they also have to be incredibly mindful, steve, of what might happen if they wait too long to cut, either a mistake or ruining this great story they seem to have been able to write. the book isn't finished yet. maybe the market and some market participants have tried to write the ending too early. nonetheless, they don't want to mess the story up. >> i think that's right, but i do think there's an interesting conflict between the theory and the practice. i think maybe joe was just saying the earnings are coming in the the economy is strong. none of this should be happening. all of this violates the theory of what happens when you raise interest rates at the speed of light to 5.38% and you don't get a pop in the unemployment rate

to speak of. you don't get a slowing of the economy, and you keep going ahead further. the fed needs to be mindful the theory of it being restrictive is not necessarily taking place in the reality of the economy. the good and the bad things of powell not being an economist, he's not married to the dogma of the theory, and i think that means that he will reverse course if he needs to. if he sees the economy the way it's behaving, he'll react to that metropuch more than hunker into the theory of the fact they're restrictive and it should be happening. >> i think what we're learning, too, steve, this once in 100-year event of the pandemic has made it virtually impossible for economists, policymakers or anybody else to have a full understanding about what it means to go into that kind of event and then come out when you

pile stimulus upon stimulus on top of it and introduce the level of rate cuts and the speed at which they did it. to your point, you assume things would happen when maybe they wouldn't. we're trying to get our arms around this still. >> yeah, we're all learning as we go here. i think that requires a bit of humility on all parts. we have not had the disaster a lot of people predicted. there are concerns at some point, mr. chairman, you may be too restrictive here. look at this happening in the economy. we don't really have this thing yet which is an important point, scott. i think we've had this discussion. if i get called on for a question to the chair, i would be happy to say, mr. chair, how could you be missing this unbelievably bad thing happening in the economy with your rates so high? i don't see what that is.

i think it underpins on equities here which is on earnings and the outlook there. we were talking about the idea the march inflation numbers were not going to be what you expected. there is an echo of last year where it came down during the year. if you're looking for a bullish case, something to hang a hat on, well, there's some residual seasonality that will work itself out during the year and will be helpful down the road and will get those numbers. just not as quickly as you expected. >> sure. i appreciate it very much, steve. steve liesman is at the fed in d.c. because we have the minutes later. bryn, to steve's point on the investment thesis intact, because the expectation is that earnings will be pretty good, right? hsbc says they're still too low.

do we start getting these reports coming in and say, okay, that's why we thought the thesis was intact? >> i think it will come down to security and sector. it's easier to know what you don't want to own to say that's not intact. you don't want to own long duration bonds, small cap value, small cap growth. stick to high quality tech, the qs, energy, industrials -- which i know jim likes. you have to pick your spots. there will be a big separation especially in this earnings season because the analysts are reducing estimates. >> no, we went from 10% to 5% in terms of earnings growth. >> that's a huge deal. >> i understand. but when you've been at negative quarter after quarter for a while, you'll take the 5. >> we'll take the 5. analysts go too high when we come down.

when small and mid cap growth will not suffer fools. if you slightly miss you'll have a 10% to 15% down. i think this will be painful with the yield backdrop. >> i do want to get into what areas of the market may be most vulnerable. you gave us a list of must own areas after the cpi was released with the dow down more than 500. must owns according to joe gentlemen. commodities -- not just the refiners -- metals and materials. insurance companies and private equity. why the list in those three? >> the s&p is down 2%. are we on the cusp of a deeper decline? even if we are, it is imperative you own commodities in this environment. you mentioned energy, metals, i would add steel. steel dynamics is contained in

the joet etf, martin marietta. i know you've done a nice job with archer daniels midland. secondarily who has pricing power right now? insurance companies have pricing power. we own progressive. we own arch capital in the etf. lastly, if rates remain elevated, private equity continues to be the solution because lending standards will be tight and restrictive in that nature. that takes to you apollo management, kkr, brown and brown. three areas of the market right now, even in the decline, you could go in and own. >> what do we think of this, weiss? >> i don't disagree with any of that. i was having a conversation yet with somebody in the private market investing in insurance, the numbers are through the roof. we looked at one company last

year, fortunately we didn't do, an auto insurer, and their cash flow estimates were exceeded by 50%. those are real numbers. what i'm astounded by today, frankly, is cat is flat, that deere is flat. those would be the first ones you would think would take gas with rates moving up. but in the premarket they did. if you sold it then, you lost. right now it's unbelievable as you see with meta. to me, i don't know if it's cautionary that people aren't paying the proper amount of attention. i can see those stocks instead of flat -- >> maybe they don't think the story has changed. >> again, it goes back to your fundamentals. if you're basing your buying and portfolio positioning on rates coming down, then i think you're making a mistake. >> let's just have -- if i ask you the question, is the next move from the fed a cut or a

hike, how would you answer that question? >> next move from the fed is no move. >> no, no, no. don't give me that nonsense. >> it's not nonsense. it's factual. >> that's not a move. are they going to cut next or hike? >> they're probably going to cut. >> okay, thank you. >> hold on, scott. that's not the answer -- >> it is the answer. i just ask the question, what's the next move? >> three cuts, six uts, now it's three. it's probably going to go to two. if you're basing your case on that, you're wrong. >> no, you're not. if you knew the first move of the fed at the beginning of this hiking cycle was going to be a hike, you would be negative like you were. like you were. >> what if the next move is not this year but next year? what if it's not this summer -- >> if you want to start pushing the timeline back that far, obviously that's a risk. >> exactly. that's my point. >> if you still know the trend han changed, even if it's pushed

off, don't fight the fed work both ways? >> i agree. i think we're missing a bigger point. we've had two important points. today the cpi headline is up 3.5%. you put the two numbers together, the consumer is doing better. that means they're going to consume more. this economy will go higher and permeate to all sections of the economy which is why, steve, cat is flat today. those two areas coming together. >> we've seen that clearly. >> the market is definitely going to be tested if the weiss time line is -- comes to fruition. this may not be his base case, but if you have to push cuts out that far, then we need to rethink valuations. i have notes about that today, too.

ubs. they don't look elevated when compared to expected growth. even if rates get pushed off, but if earnings are good, isn't that still bullish for stocks? >> yes. it's all about earnings, profit margin expansion. we're coming out of the earnings recession. at some point hopefully the russell 2000 will join the s&p and the nasdaq. where i began the show, today did not alleviate any of that pain, it worsened it. show me a regional bank, and i will look the other way. >> what about the sectors have experienced no pain but most gain since march 1st on the idea you will have broadening and lower rates. those are up 5% since the beginning of march. utilities, they're up 5% since the beginning of march.

the utilities, why would you want to own now if you think remains will be hyper? >> you would not, right? utilities, there's a few, but in general low growth, they're rate sensitive. there's a basket of rate sensitive sectors you can just the algos and the hedge funds will short and not own. you're fighting against that tidal wave of hedge funds in those sectors. what you don't own, to me, is easier to figure out than what you do want to own. to your point, commodities, you want to own that and on energy and materials, while they've done good year to good, on a one-year number, they're still lagging. if you think you rebalance quarterly for momentum, but a lot of big factor based models only rebalance annually or semiannually. you haven't even picked that up to the next rebalance of other momentum type strategies which

can give even more of a whoosh the next few months. >> what about the mega cap names that, like nvidia is in correction territory, but it gets bought today. is it still higher? it was earlier. the other mega cap names are in the red. jim lebenthal gives us a shopping list today at the top apple and amazon. so you're ready to buy some of the mega cams on pullback. >> i wanted to buy today. i was excited to come on and say i'm heading to apple. heading to amazon. different reasons, by the way. apple had, until the cpi report, until the markets opened, held that 168 level. now it's through it and looks like the 200 day sloping down. it's going to continue to go down, so i'll wait. amazon is in a position strength. i'm just sitting on my hands. i do want to be clear about something, folks, i'm not calling for even a full

correction in the market. i think you'll get a high and that will be it. joe's comments about profits are well made. today, the news we've got, the reaction from the market which is entirely expected, this is not the day to buy. >> even if weiss is right, you have people saying you don't need cuts anyway. >> so how can today, people make the same argument, well, the market is doomed if you get no cuts. >> let me succinctly say this. folks, the market is not in a fatal condition, but it's reacting to marginal data today which is on the negative. there will be profit taking and we're seeing it in names up earlier are down now. >> both steves are right, liesman and weiss, the risks are elevated the longer inflation remains elevated. >> if you want to scare me, you can.

tell me rate hikes are coming. >> if you think rates will remain at this level at least for a longer period of time than you thought, you were expecting some rate cuts, maybe one. if it is the weissian none, you can't tell me you don't need to rethink anything. you can't have it both ways. >> on the margin. yes, that's why i woke up this morning ready to buy. new data came in, i changed my mind. some stocks are going to labor under higher for longer like discretionary spend. but this is one piece of data today. i went through what the real earnings are doing. atlanta fed gdp updated today.

it's a condition today you sit back. >> bryn is not just sitting back and doing nothing. you sold a stock, and it's abbvie. tell us why you sold it. you've owned this for a while? >> close to two years. >> why is now the time to sell that? >> in november i think it got to 132, 133. it was at 180. this year has been a wonderful year for abbvie. close to $20 billion. it went to 180. i sold at 178. i felt it had a really good run, and i'm glad i did. earnings estimates are down 5.6% year over year. i do want to see how they absorb. i went on and put the proceeds

into others that are more diversified instead of an individual name. >> all right. so we have a move there. i thought we had a good debate on where we stand today relative to cpi stocks, rates and everything else. up next, more committee stocks on the move today. we'll get the trades on roblox and taiwan semi. we're back in two. >> announcer: are you following "the halftime report" podcast? what are you waiting for? look for us in your favorite podcasting app. follow "the halftime" podcast now. encore energy, america's clean energy company, now in production in south texas. energizing america with reliable and affordable uranium for nuclear energy fuel from our environmentally friendly extraction process. encore energy.

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we're back. we're going to hit committee stocks on the move. delta is one of them. jimmy, you owned it on the back of earnings. revs miss. the outlook for air travel has been strong. ed bastian talked about it with phil today. what's up? >> profit taking. stop, steve. >> somebody sold it. >> shush. >> taken a profit. >> stop generating 1.4 billion free cash flow, paid down 700 million of debt. on track to pay down debt this year. the stock is up 16%.

it's up 30% in six months and, again, apropos of what we were talking about at the beginning, before the cpi, the stock was up 5%. they get incremental data. maybe that increases the chance of a recession longer. let me be blunt, folks, this is an opportunity to buy delta. we talked about this being a trade. it's a trade that's languished for a long time. it's going to go higher. >> any rebuttal? it's no accident we sat you next to each other. >> i'm confused jimmy came in want to go buy higher and now they're lower he doesn't want to buy them. i'm trying to work that out in the a block. >> are you being purposely dense? >> that was a good one. >> we'll let the audience vote.

>> taiwan semi, better increase in march sales. the fastest pace in a year, you own that one. >> i do. i'm waiting for it to go up 10% to buy more. we know they're adding capacity, you're going to taiwan semito do it for you. you want to put money here. >> bryn, what about roblox? cathie wood is buying more. they hired to help juice sales according to "the wall street journal." >> i don't think that's a market moving event. i guess it is. i think it's stuck between the 30 to 40 range. i think until they come out with more profitability, which i know

dave is putting the money back into the company. i think the stock is capped out once up get 40, be $45. contessa brewer has the headlines. six former mississippi law enforcement officers were sentenced on state charges this morning to 15 to 45 years in prison for the torture and abuse of two black men in a racist attack in january 2023. the six men who called themselves the goon squad were ordered to give up their law enforcement certificates permanently. the state prison sentences will run concurrent to federal sentences. three sons after hamas leader were killed in gaza. he confirmed the deaths to the al jazeera satellite channel and said it would not affect hamas' ceasefire demands. israel has not commented. palestinians living in tent camps in the southern gaza city of rafah are celebrating the end of ramadan. festivities have been overshadowed by the worsening

humanitarian crisis in gaza and israel's anticipated ground inr invasion of rafah. up next our "calls of the day." we have activity on five key committee names today which mes 'lanwel debate all of them after this quick break.

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welcome back. let's do some "calls of the day" now. albemarle got upgraded, bryn, at bank of america to a buy from neutral. price target goes to 156 from 137. they cite improving lithium prices. what do we think? >> i think it's a great call. if you're going to buy or be in commodities, you have to buy when there's been blood in the street. this stock has been basing out around 120, 130. i wouldn't be surprised to see us stepping in and adding to our position in the next few weeks. good call. >> does it feel like natural gas to you? both are down 80%. >> lithium and gas aren't going away. >> are you look to go buy alb?

>> maybe. maybe a little natural gas as well, right, jimmy? he's not paying attention. >> wake him up. >> thinking about general motors. price target to 46 from 43 from morgan stanley. adam jonas says the ev slowdown is positive for gm. >> he has an outperform rating on it. he wants to like it but when you read his verbiage, he hates it. it trades at around 5 times earnings. i appreciate your support of the company. people need them, the pricing has come down a little bit but is still highly profitable. i want to see after the share purchase. >> jimmy is on the board of gm now. >> okay, i'll tell him. i appreciates it. >> he appreciates the support.

>> i understand love/hate relationships. >> broadcom, added to ubs' top picks list. >> it's a core holding in terms of generative a.i. and tsm is telegraphing an environment we're seeing the recovery coming out of covid for smart phones, for laptops, from other areas. that bodes well for broadcom. >> it also benefits from a.i., too. >> of course, and why i believe it's a core holding. other areas of the business are rising. >> so disney reiterated buy. i'm sure you appreciate the support of the company as you articulated through general motors. you can reach out in your spare time. what do you think? >> thank you for your support but i like the call.

what's important to note the current multiple, you expect outperformance. the proxy battle is behind us. as i've been saying the biggest lever is disney plus, the earnings we'll start getting in less than six months come in bigger than expected. >> service now, 900 from 885 at jefferies. reiterated buy, joe? >> jimmy, you like a trailing profit margin? >> i do. pretty good for gm, wouldn't it? delivering growth -- >> tell me more. >> they're part of the a.i. story as it relates to software itself. cash on hand continues to grow now $2 billion. we are going to take a quick break. mike santoli has his "midday word." we're watching 12:45, too, because we're going to hear from goolsbee and barkin. we may hear from liesman, too, on what they have tosay about the cpi in their own map for

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highs. it would seem a very, very modest giveback of the rally if that somehow ends up being where a stand is taken. but it is doing it the hard way, which is a handful of stocks. you have most of the cyclicals and rates are down. i know it's true and it's easy to say if the economy hangs in there who needs rate cuts. but the stocks aren't acting like we can be comfortable in the assumption that indefinitely at these yield levels things like consumer cyclicals can hang in there and therefore the consumer can hang up. we have the suspense that's been prolonged for another couple of months. assuming it goesthrough ppi tomorrow in terms of where we're going to sit, in terms of the equilibrium between inflation growth and asset price. >> your point is well taken. the key word, of course, you used indefinitely goes to what weiss was saying earlier. all right, we don't need rate cuts today, but if we start putting them off forever, we may

have a problem. >> i just think inevitably the market is going to start to chafe under that because it's going to go through the what if scenarios, and, remember, let's say july somehow becomes the first rate cut, that will have been one year on hold at peak rates, that's a very long stretch for the fed. it's happened to be longer at times but not much. you inevitably have this idea of really where is the cycle at, and can we punctuate that inflationary period or not? so i'm not alarmist about it. this market is doing very normal things. right now you're playing with house money, but it does make it a trickier setup. >> always measured, mike, you are. i'll see you on "closing bell." that's mike santoli. coming up, we're standing by for the first fed reaction due to today's cpi print, goolsbee, barkin, speaking in about 30 seconds from now. we'll try and have the headlines for you, too, when we come back.

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we're back. gold rallying more than 10% to start the year. bofa ratchets up its forecast for gold and copper. let's kick these around, bryn. gold remains one of their favorite metals. been on a run. they're saying $2,500 by q4. copper goes to 9321 per metric ton. you own bhp but what are your broader actionable thoughts for our viewers on this? >> i think gold, first of all, you have twofold here. number one, you have the chinese have been for the past couple of years, and russia, buying gold. you also have, if rates stay at this level, by the end of this year, december of 2024, the annual interest on our debt will be $1.6 trillion. i think that is a macro play that people a moving into gold.

i think that from an actionable item gold is very overbought right now. i like bhp here. it's iron ore and copper. it's an adjacent play to china. you have an undervalued company with a little over 5% dividend as well. >> okay. joe? >> freeport-mcmoran gives you a little bit of everything, increasing the exposure to copper, be limited supply, and the gold revenues. i mentioned yesterday tech resources, that's another way to play it. a company like ivanho, i agree with bryn on bhp. that's another way to play it as well. >> weiss, are you playing this at all? as long as i've known you, and you've been on this program, this is not a knock at all, it's a fact, you have not liked gold, right? you said you can't value it. you've made that case. >> yeah, i don't know how you value gold. it's an emotional buy.

it's an emotional sell. >> there are times where it works. we're obviously in one of those times. >> exactly. i know if i come in, that will be the end of the time it works. >> stay out. >> so they don't get mad at me. >> sort of like when you walk o. check, please. >> how is that different than your buy in bitcoin? >> good question, joe t. >> it is a softball question, thank you. because i'm betting on the momentum in marketing from black rock, from fidelity, from tons of other firms that are bringing people in. so i'm betting on the market strength. bitcoin just happens to be the vehicle i'm using to play their market strength. for gold, i've seen charts, people say it's an inflation hedge. i can show you charts that show you it's a poor inflation hedge. people say that appreciative value, i can show you where it's

been up and down, up and down. so i just can't do bottoms up analysis on it, i won't do it. >> you don't like the marketing in late-night commercials on gold? >> all right. jimmy? >> you know what i'm going to say, cleveland cliffs, steel. steel is obviously in huge demand. pricing will be going up. this company has controlled costs better than any other steel manufacturer, and you have this u.s. steel bid that however it plays out has put a whole bid to the sector. >> why are you laughing? >> cleveland cliffs. >> we're talking about metals. >> we'll be right back after this. >> we can talk about mp corps. i mean, everything's going up. the whole comment about commodity prices going up, look at mp materials. >> all right, okay, okay, okay. back after this.

we're going two big winners, two big loser. cava group upgraded to a buy today, up near 5%. axon enterprises leading the s&p 500 today. deckers is a loser today, as is rocket companies. talk about, you know, obviously given mortgages and what's happening in the housing market today, that is a tough day, down 11%.

"final trades" are coming up next.

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better outcomes. t. rowe price join me on "closing bell" today as we take you through this final stretch. it could be an interesting one. josh brown will be with me onset. getting the first take on the cpi and what he thinks it now means for the future of rate cuts and christina hooper, too. let's do some "final trades." steve weiss, i'm going to go to you first. get you out of the way early. >> thank you. the two-year staying out here at almost a 5% yield.

it's a good place to be, whether you want to hide from the market or just book, you know, a nice return. that's not far off by the way from the historical s&p return. so i like putting money in there. we'll see if the ppi comes out even hotter. >> okay. farmer jim? >> all right. so i already said i think this market is going a little bit lower. but if you need to step in, and you heard me on gm, cliffs and dealta, applied materials. >> you think that area is specifically at risk at this point, chips, because of how well many of those stocks have done? >> yes, but i think it's the pause that refreshes. yes, i think we come down a little bit. by the end of the year, you'll be happy you buy those names. >> it's not just an nvidia story, obviously. you could put up a chart of since the bottom or since march and it's been a massive run for a lot of those names. bryn, good to see you back here.

>> i'm going to stick with vhp. 200-day moving average, if it can stay above it, we have legs to move much higher. >> somebody asked me the ticker of joe t. >> really? >> wasn't sure if it was a joke or what. but at any rate, your final trade? >> allstate. one area to avoid is regional banks. >> good stuff. i'll see you on "closing bell." thank you, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm deidre bosa in for kelly evans. and here's what's ahead on our show. march cpi coming in hotter than expected. yields are dumping, stocks are falling and so is the probability for a june rate cut. but our market guest is here to tell us where he sees opportunity. and our trader says what is going on with nvidia is very strange and he's here with how he's positioning. google