little longer does this raise the premium be on how important earnings will be? >> absolutely. remember tina. well we have other things now. there are other alternatives and you can be in cash equivalent and treasuries. >> you can go into some nice quality corporate bonds at 6%. lock it up fortwo years. >> three to five years. >> nice thing to have. >> nice to have you here. >> thank you. >> we'll see you next week. that does it for "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> and welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from post nine on this friday. this make or break hour begins with the rally interrupted as geopolitical concerns, inflation fears and a rate cut reset, all weighing on the markets today. we'll ask our experts over this final stretch what's at stake that includes fundstrat's tom lee. is the story for the bulls changing? it's a kwee key question and we'll get his answer. in the meantime, take a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation, a decidedly risk off day for the market.

bonds are up, dollar, oil, gold rising, stocks down, the vix up as well. bank stocks are selling off led by jpmorgan, following earnings, tech also weak, nearly every mega cap name is lower today. apple, though, an exception. coming up we'll tell you whether this week might mark an inflection point for that stock. it does take us to our talk of the tape, whether the bull market has run off the road as earnings season gets going. ask our panel, requisite kamts, amy, co-founder and cy of vantage rock, she and mike santoli are with me on set. avery, i begin with you, anything meaningful change this week for the bulls? >> i think the bulls began to recognize that, you know, we -- you can't have your cake and eat it too r, right. the market looking for lower unemployment, costs, lower rates, lower inflation, at the same time looking for growth enabled by higher wages, higher

prices, and higher government spending. and the reality is, the last part of that is coming to reality and -- or continuing and that means inflation is higher for longer, and it kind of makes it harder to have these low rates continue to -- have the low rates come soon enough to stimulate the economy for the next leg up. >> should we be less bullish than we were? did the game change in some respects this week because of the inflation reads that we got? >> yes. well, i mean i think that the bulls have gotten ahead of themselves, right. valuations have been expanding. year over year, valuations up 25% and earnings estimates have actually about flat. then even over the past several months you have valuation expansion going from the expectation of rate cuts to nearly 6, to under 2. something needs to give, and, you know, i think it's the markets that are giving. then you add on that increased

geopolitical risks and it's a tougher environment. >> okay. britai brin, want to tell me what the takeaway is for a turbulent week? >> i think as the week started we're ending, it's going to be risk off. we don't want to see iran and israel get into any type of skirmish. i think that's also -- gold is down today but gold has had a huge run. people are putting their hedges on. in addition, we started the year, scott, with six rate cuts and an ai euphoria. i think ai is getting tired, consolidating, and we're dg going to have one cut in december. i think the market is reprising. i think today specifically is more geopolitical as well as yields going higher. >> these are good points being made, mike, in that ifyou were bullish months ago on the idea you're going to get rate cuts, and that was going to be a principal part of the story, how could you be as bullish on the idea you get fewer.

>> we were operating on the premise we might not have to make painful tradeoffs and give up the idea of a fed easing into record high stock market, 3% gdp economies. that's something i've been saying for a while. i look at it a little bit more but the spheric conditions that preceded this moment, the market straight up for five months, no 2% pullback in the s&p 500, a very tight clustering of the consensus around the softer no landing and yet we're going to have the fed cut and rate -- yields will stay tame and all that. i think we've gotten a welcome shake up of that opinion. so if you had -- you have to have less conviction now in any of those views than you did two weeks ago. that being said, i'm not going to get too over excited about a 200 percentage point upside in cpi month over month and then all of a sudden tears up the premise of how we got here. pce under 3% annualized coming up in two weeks and you're going

to be able to make both cases for a little while here that economy is final, earnings are better than expected in the first quarter, even just getting back to what we thought they would be three months ago. we're less than 3% from the highs. first day moving average in the s&p in five months. that was a really long stretch. so i think you've lost the momentum players, that's broken. i think that you've lost the valuation doesn't matter because we're going to get rate cuts camp. you have to have a fresh eyes on valuation relative to earnings, and also the big secular themes. every time we think this market is getting a macro gut check, somebody says ai and three mega caps go flying and we think it's back to happy days again. >> i understand there's been new things introduced this week, but maybe it's important to still keep your eye on the ball and eye on the prize, and the prize is still -- it is still the prospects that the fed is going to cut rates this year. it might not be as many as we thought, but that in and of

itself is why some make the argument to stay bullish. >> i think that -- i would have really agreed with mike that valuation, though, is going to matter because yes, maybe we'll get one cut, but the only way we're going to get two cuts is actually if the economy gets much worse and if the economy gets worse earnings are going down and really to be putting a high multiple on earnings weakness. so what we're looking at here, right now, is thinking in this earnings we're likely to see a bifurcation. we have many cyclical sectors and saw today from our banking earnings high quality banks selling off because expectations got too high. there's really nothing wrong with the reports, but people are realizing -- >> a lot into the reports too -- >> but yes -- >> jpmorgan a poster case for that. >> absolutely. and i think the point is, that's

happened to a lot of the market, right. so as we sit here right now and look at the earnings to come, i think so they're high expectations priced into a lot of areas in the market like in cyclicals, industrial, construction, home furnishings, machinery, all of these stocks are pricing in rate cuts, with growth, but the growth is going to be steady and rate cuts and then growth reaccelerate. if we don't see that in earnings there could be weakness in these companies. >> mike, i heard you make the point earlier, suggesting that there are going to be a lot of easy beats because -- >> well -- >> where expectations were relative to where they are now? >> that's the mechanics of analysts have downgraded their expectations for this quarter. 6% gdp economy, the upside of having higher inflation than we thought as well as decent real growth, and it seems if you have the makings, especially once the big tech companies report in a couple weeks, three weeks, whatever it is, you usually have

that 3 to 5 percentage point beat and basically saying that. it's a turkey shoot. we set ourselves up to have the big beat, but the point is, the 12-month forward forecast has continued to go up. obviously, we're putting a heavy multiple on top of that 12-month forecast. 250 let's say in s&p earnings and, you know, you're rich on that, still 20 times plus. but i do think that at least if attention can turn to earnings, once the smoke clears and, you know, we get that through the back and forth of which we're not raising guidance enough, jpmorgan, when the ceo says the stock is too expensive to buy back a lot and costs are higher than we expected and the stock a monster, it's going down 6%. >> of course. and brin, when jamie dimon warns of all of these things that are out there as potential major risks, like he's been doing, suggesting that, you know, in the past couple weeks, that the economy or the market's outlook about the economy is too

optimistic and there are a lot of variables out there that can upset the story >> right. i mean i think he's pragmatic and lays it out for everybody. with jpmorgan, mike hit it spot on. with earnings you have to look at individual companies. if you think about it, five names probably have an $11 trillion market cap collectively, if you look at apple, amazon, microsoft, meta, so i think that amazon, meta, microsoft, and nvidia, i think they're going to have great numbers. i think they're going to be solid. the calls will be very upbeat. we're not going to get to those numbers for a couple weeks, and, so i just think until we get to the big names that we're all excited about, you're going to have individual names. if you do not beat and raise this market will not suffer, and it will be dicey for these companies that just kind of have, you know, eh kind of earnings this season. >> this is why, avery, tony from goldman sachs says, exactly what

brin is thinking, that mega cap earnings are going to be good, we may have to wait a few weeks for them to come out, but that's why you shouldn't take your eye off the ball and stay big in these stocks. >> i think that there could be bifurcation within the mega caps. >> there already has been? >> i think that could continue. where we tend to be constructive in mega caps is the companies that are the most reasonably valued, but not just because they're reasonably valued, but because we think they have moats to their business. digital internet media and advertising plays. the companies in -- the large mega caps in those spaces we think are some of the most under appreciated benefits of ai. they're using ai to have the sophisticated algorithms and the content to deliver to customers. that is something that can continue to monetize much better than anticipated and in addition, we've seen announcements not just from them, but from others, from some of the top consumers of ai chips, they're continuing to

make a lot of progress and own internal initiatives. it's too early to have a cost benefit from that but over time that could be a cost benefit not priced in to numbers in out years. >> mike, you mentioned the mega cap trade. look, maybe they're forgetting about a day but when is the last time we had a 300 point decline in the nasdaq on day where yields are actually down because of the flight to safety trade into bonds. >> yeah. i mean look, we hit a record in the composite yesterday. we should remember that. it's just top heavy enough it can be that kind of a swing and not necessarily change the overall story. i'm very open to the idea that we kind of capped our market march 28th for a little while and we have to shop around. it would fit in with election seasonality, dicier in the spring, everyone will talk about how tax day is monday, some of this has been selling the winners to cover that. going to be a big capital gains realization year, which is good

news maybe for the budget and federal budget. so i think all that stuff is moving back and forth. and i don't think yields have been the prime driver for tech for a long time. the secular excitement has overtaken a lot of that stuff and not about long duration stocks and discounting cash flows. show me the earnings revisions. show me where the big growth is coming from multiple years and you -- people keep fixing on those names. >> brin, yields have been important for let's say the russell 2000 which not lost on me is sitting exactly at 2,000 right now. it is down 2%. it had a 2.5% decline earlier in the week before the snap back yesterday. bofa securities today says we think small is likely to lag large until later this year until we get confidence in cuts. we've had a good debate on this program weekly about whether you can buy small caps without rate cuts, and i think the answer is being proven out as no.

>> right. i've been clear on this. it's like that is not the trade right now, and listen, we're tactical and we went into small cap value in december of 2020. why? because they're very cyclically sensitive and we knew the economy was going to expand from the reopening and the stimulus. now you have small cap value a bunch of regional banks and small cap value is nonprofitble, in theory rate sensitive on both sides. i think it's not a way to allocate dollars to stay large cap, have a look at free cash flow yields like so many other asset classes and factors you can look at, instead of trying to figure out russell 2000 or s&p 600. step to the side. there will be a time, but it is not right now. >> avery, the broadening in the market works both ways. on the prospect of strong economy and rate cuts coming, means you have a much broader rally, which we've been waiting for and finally cheered. okay. so how much of that trade is in jeopardy if now okay, maybe we need to worry about the economy

a little bit more if the fed is going to be more patient than we thought, maybe there are cracks that develop. can the broadening trade work in a pushed out rate cut market? >> it can work for companies that are still suspicious about the company's earnings growth potential in an unclear market. so there are areas within cyclicals where, you know, you could see appreciation and, you know, areas that we're looking at where we think it's -- you still have enough uncertainty priced in, within autos, within travel, especially airlines over in europe, again, assuming geopolitical risks don't explode, here very high quality airlines, those are companies trading at, you know, high single digit it multiples but other areas in cyclicals like i mentioned in construction, in industrials, in home furnishes, and machinery, you have high valuations on expectations that you're going to have these cuts

come through and that's where i think that you're likely or -- you're likely to see disappointments. also i would say, given the dynamics in the market, there's still areas that are reasonably priced that are more defensive and not sensitive to interest rates going down. they benefit from rates going up. we continue to like insurance. certain areas with insurance you have in life insurance a major short report out yesterday. i don't know whether it's true or not. you had other insurers in the life insurance space sell off, and the fundamentals are fine and the valuations are not high. you have an auto insurance continuing to have a favorable backdrop with valuations not sky high and, you know, whatever happens to the economy, unfortunately, we're all going to be paying more for auto insurance. >> you highlight what contessa was highlighting earlier today she covers the insurance spaces they were bucking the trend in a down market these stocks were higher. mike, as this goes to another you can't have it both ways trade necessarily, in the big

broadening we've had, if we change the game on expectations of cuts and economic strength lasting do you need to rethink these kind of moves? there are stocks within these sectors outside of tech that went up a lot. >> the s&p is back on its lows relative to the market cap weighted. we have these kind of false dawns in july and november and a few weeks ago as well, where it seemed as if you were sharing the wealth. it's been yield dependent. the russell 2000 still profitable companies, raises the hurdles for them too much. for whatever reason that's now the trading algorithm, yields up sell small caps. i don't know. i'm more interested in is are the cyclicals beating the defensives and tells you more about the undered pinnings of this rally beyond ai names than to me is the average median stock doing better or worse than the average. >> you've made the point repeatedly that bull markets

aren't up ended by a too strong economy. >> not only that. if you really think inflation is like not going to go down further from here or sticky and bumpy and the fed will not have a way, then inherently means you have to be worried about the fed earoring. >> i mentioned contessa brewer. what's up? >> you know we're watching the markets and having some geopolitical jitters where it comes to the middle east and president biden was just giving comments from the white house for the national action network, the potential of an escalation of conflict between iran and israel. he said he didn't want to get into specifics, but he's anticipating it sooner rather than later and when asked when -- what his message is to iran, don't. he said, quote, we are devoted to the defense of israel and said, quote, iran will not

succeed. so the sooner rather than later mark is certainly attention getting here. we'll keep an eye on the markets and how they react. >> appreciate that. >> markets reacting mostly to this. we're down, you know, 560 or so on the dow, gave up 38,000 a little bit earlier. the fact of the matter is you're not going to be long into the weekend with this overhang. >> yeah. if you had a sense of wanting to be tactical, it's a net selling type of environment. usually these things don't end up being the big thing that changes the trend for good. i understand the apprehension. it's worth remembering, the u.s. called so to speak the russian invasion of ukraine publicly, so it's not as if they're casually saying we think something will happen. >> dow down 571. s&p is working on a 90 point decline. it's been a minute since we've had a 2% decline and 2% decline across the board and we may be

doing that over this final stretch. back to the conversation in a minute. we are keeping our eyes on shares of apple, too, because they're staying positive today or they were. they still are. steve covac joins us now. i guess there's talk this week as to whether, you know, there was an inflection point for shares which have seemingly been down for weeks and here we are maybe bucking that trend. we'll find out if it's lasting. >> especially yesterday and what we're seeing right now, scott, apple resisting today's broader market selloff, fractionally positive, 0.4%. shares up more than 4% yesterday because that was its best day since may 5th of last year. about 11 months there. meantime all of its big tech peers, microsoft, amazon, alphabet, and meta, down today. this is the opposite of what we've seen so far this year with apple significantly under performing its peers and the s&p 500. one thing helping apple shares, that bloomberg report yesterday saying apple plans to debut new

processers and macs at the end of the year to enable ai features. that seems to be one of the catalysts. goldman sachs analysts out with their apple earnings preview cutting their price target a few bucks from 232 to $226. they see potential for a june quarter revenue guidance to miss expectations amid weak iphone demand especially in china. still a mystery what apple's ai play will be. the chip news gave hints. not going to find out until june 10th when we're expecting apple to reveal its ai plans at its annual developers conference. that's going to be the next to watch for. >> appreciate that given a look of what's happened with apple. brin, you're long the stock. >> yeah. looks like technically the stock doesn't look good. it's below the 50, below the 100 and below the 200-day moving average. we're just about to pop close to the 50 day. to me it looks like it's an

upward trend still in a downward charge. i don't live for technicals but looks like this big bounce will get tired out right here. i think you're going have to wait a couple quarters until apple gets their story together around what a they're going to do for ai. to me, it feels like it's a little bit of a phishing expedition. >> interesting week for sure in light of what's happening in the broader market. brin, thank you. mike, see you in the zone in a little bit. our senior markets commentator. up next, stocks sinking to end the week. the fundstrat's tom lee not backing down, says it's an opportunity to buy the dip. how he's navigating the inflation situation and how many cuts he's expecting from the fed this year. we're live at the new york stock exchange. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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. the s&p on track for its worst weekly loss but tom lee says it's temporary moment of pain and buy the dip opportunity. he joins me now to make that case. good to see you again. glad your a here in person. you don't think much changed this week? >> i think the narrative got muddled because that cpi report was a disappointment, but it was driven by what we call stubborn components, shelter, auto insurance. the median course component now has only 1.7% year over year inflation. i mean, inflation is normally just not evident in the total picture. >> the pce in a couple weeks is going to be more favorable we think than these latest inflation reads and i know what everybody says about it's, you know, it being the fed's favored

measure where inflation is. are you entertaining the idea this is not going to be as easy as you thought it was going to be for the last mile and therefore the market can't do what you thought it could? >> now the fed has three inflation reports it can't argue against that are hotter than expected. >> and the bulls can't explain them away either, can they? >> that's right. we would need to see is april and may cpi improvements in the future, and then keeps the fed from standing in the way of the economy. what we don't want is a fed that wants to further slow the economy, which is rate hikes. i think if they do even one hike this year, it's still actually a good environment for stocks. >> one cut, you mean. >> one cut. >> let's be clear, a freudian slip. the greatest fear of all is they have to hike again, however remote that possibility seems today, and even if you put into the soup all the fed commentary

we've got of late seems to be push off rather than push up. >> that's right. and i think it's, you know, at the end of the day, even the cpi does look like it's somewhat sticky, pce is more cooperative than ppi is and measures like true flation show inflation much softer, umich expectations much lower, so i think we could ask -- >> what about the valuations in the market? how do you counter the argument that they're way too stretched? multiples are way too rich given what now is likely to be the case of cuts later on? >> i mean i think when someone looks at 20 years of history, that's the argument they'll make. if they look at 90 years of p/e multiples versus interest rates, when the 10-year is between 4 and 5%, a pretty big range, the median p/e is 20 times. so we're not even at a median p/e multiple of what's existed whenever the 10-year has been in

this range. so -- and then if you look at the median stock it's at 16 times. i would say that there's upside to earnings. i think multiples can expand. i don't think 5200 is the ceiling for stocks this year. >> what feels like the right ceiling now? >> i know this is going to be tough for investors to embrace it, but i think something like 56, 5700 is probably where the s&p exits the year, maybe higher. >> much more back loaded into that than you once thought? >> i think it's still back loaded because we'll have the cuts behind us and we'll have visibility into 2025 earnings which probably could be 270, maybe 280 next year. >> when you say we'll have the cuts behind us are you sure? no june. you think the first one is in july? >> or it could be september. but it -- >> that's why i asked you if the move in the market you suggested is back loaded. >> yes. >> you're not going to get a big

move until you see the first cut at this point. now there's a lot of disbelief in the market. >> that's right. and scott, one thing to keep in mind the probability of a june cut has been reduced but it can come back if we have a good april and may cpi because it's going to put back into focus what is the trend in cpi. it does feel stubborn when you look at january, february, march. >> the flip side of the argument flat bulls would suggest is, all of this is noise. keep your eye on the ball. the fed will cut. they may wait, they may not do as many as we thought, but the regime has changed and the economy is going to remain good and earnings are going to be strong enough and they're still going to cut because they're going to be able to and point to the pce and say don't be blindsided by the other noise. that's the story that matters most. >> i mean, i say that's a story that's going to -- as the dust settles from this week, that's going to sort of push back into the front lines in people's minds because it's different than 2022 and 2023, and we're in the middle of earnings season and delivered earnings will be

good and interest rates, it's not comfortable but the economy is handling it. >> for now. >> yes. >> you made a call i think first on this program that small caps were going to rally 50%. >> yes. >> several months ago. i can't imagine that you still believe that's going to happen now that rate cuts have been pushed out seemingly until the fall. >> well, i think the viewers need to keep in mind that small caps almost rally 20% in a month last year. so for them to rally 50% over the next eight months i think it's still very plausible given that median earnings growth for small caps in the russell 2000 is 19% versus 11% for the s&p and the median p/e is ten times versus 16 times in the p/e. >> i know why they're cheap, but they're cheap for a reason some would say. >> if we have corporate ceo mergers go up, i think you're going to have a quick adjustment

in -- >> finish your thought. >> 6 trillion dollars on the sidelines. >> lastly, and briefly, mega caps, are you still as bullish as you have been? >> yes. yeah. because i still think it makes sense to own what's working and that's ai related and the ozempic related names. now in the margin the ism is turning up so own industrials and because of fed cuts i like small caps. >> all right. we'll see. tom lee, thank you. >> thanks. >> tom lee here at post nine. up next we're trading the turbulence. the nasdaq dropping in today's session. rick is back with us at post nine and his outlook for the nine and his outlook for the space and we'll do that nextorg, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. (laughter) at 8. we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities

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. all right. welcome back. tech stocks among the hardest hit today with the nasdaq giving back its post ppi bounce and with rising concerns about higher for longer rates is that space set up for pain ahead? let's ask rick heitzmann. good to see you again. >> hey. >> i'm imagining a scenario in which you see this pushed off rate cut environment and say higher for longer, and you're like, oh, just as we thought things were trying to get back it normal now are we pushing things off again? >> just as we thought it was safe to get back in the water. >> yeah. >> we thought it was going to be -- we would be starting to get into the cuts, although two things we look for, rates coming

down, helps tech, because of long dated assets and helps vc. the other thing, at least there's a little bit more certainty. the volatility of rates compounded that and that was a big issue, so at least if we're able to say let's higher for longer and anticipate that happening over the course of 24 there's rules of the road. >> what about the return of volatility not just relative to interest rates, but markets in general, as we hope they will open up again and you're going to be here talking about the latest and greatest ipo and maybe one you've been an early investor in? are you pushing your expectations back there too? >> we're not. hopefully we'll be here talking about the company at the new york stock exchange. we're preparing our companies to go. even if rates are higher for longer, we think certain companies are riding big enough trends and have results that bear out being a public company regardless of economic environment. >> you think at what point this year are we going to start

seeing more ipos? >> i think you will see some soon. you will see harry's.com, stub hub, seat geek go out in the second quarter. the window before the election you will see more ipos than in the last couple years. >> i look at a reddit, this is like an idiosyncratic story, and maybe some of the ones you mentioned are too. what's the signal that the capital markets are truly open for business again? >> i think you're going to see the more idiosyncratic story, the sub-10 billion market cap companies go. you're not going to see a data bricks, a strike, the big ipo, which really opens the market. >> what forces them to go public? what do they need to see before they feel comfortable and secure in this market? >> they're going to need to do a big -- billion dollar type ipo, there's going to have to be a lot of dollars that are on the sidelines off the sidelines. they're going to want to see a healthy market and not forced to

go. they have plenty of capital. the private markets are open for them, whether they want to do share buybacks from their employees or they need to raise primary capital or acquisition financing. so they're not in a rush. that's the other side of the coin, of they're notin a rush, the markets aren't ready and it will probably take until post-election timeframe for that to happen. >> where are they in terms of non-ai, non-glp-1? >> yes. >> another variable. >> you can't pick that either. if i took those two out, what's the trend that's the next bet that i need to think about now? >> that's pretty hard. those are the two mega trends we're seeing play out. >> still? >> still. still. you're still seeing, you know, the highest valuations in the public and private markets being somehow correlated to ai, sometimes they're chips and hardware, sometimes they're application level like a data bricks, or even data iq in our

portfolio, but then the next trend is glp-1 and health care and the manufacturers, distributors, all those companies performing incredibly well due to fundamental demand. beyond that i think there will be a return of enterprise. >> you were early, maybe the earliest money in row. >> yes. they're seeing fundamental demand for row body and row.co body and health care products that, you know, ozempic and wegovy are now becoming mainstreamnd you're seeing a lot more use cases for health that are really going to change the environment. >> is there -- whether you look, for example -- you know, i'm looking at the mega cap tech stocks today. they're all down except for apple. if that trend is broken for a while, is that easiest barometer to perhaps look at to figure out where sentiment is broadly for a venture person? >> we look at more narrow based things. we'll look at like the sass companies. how are the sass companies traded or the public data companies traded, data dogs,

mongodb. how is that correlating to our infrastructure software portfolio. there might not be appetite, but there might be appetite as enterprise spending turns on for data infrastructure companies driving roi. >> good insight. thanks. >> that's rick heitzmann at post nine. >> the biggest movers into the close. steve is standing by. >> we have one ai name dropping on an analyst double downgrade and a well-known pet care company shares a falling as well. we'll reveal those names when "closing bell" returns after this.

. we're about 15 from the bell. back to steve fort stocks he's watching. >> let's start with the shares of the animal medical company down falling a "wall street journal" report on the potential side effects of its arthritis drug. some pet owners in the story blame the drugs for the death of their pets. zoetist says its drugs are safe. arista from buy to sell, they warn the networking company may not benefit as much as previously thought from the build out of ai data centers. scott? >> steve, thank you very much. still ahead, chips getting

whacked and wrecked and that 'l.tor weighed down by intel and nvia wel dig into the big moves and how the sector is fairing ahead. "closing bell" is coming right back. this cnbc program is sponsored by -- (christina) with verizon business unlimited, i get 5g, truly unlimited data, and unlimited hotspot data. so, no matter what, i'm running this kitchen. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon.

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we made it. we're in the closing bell market zone. senior markets commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day plus intel and amd weighing on the chips space. we'll dig into those moves to a rare bright spot today. seema moody on gold hitting record highs yet again. we'll do that in a second. mike, leave us with something to think about over this weekend. >> pretty good flush today, even though the selling has moderated. 95% downside volume on the new york stock exchange. we're in the mode on a short-term basis you want to see things get a little bit oversold, people get a little bit afraid, frankly, what there could be to come. i think that the market kept from spinning out further when you had oil and gold come off the highs today. didn't seem like a runway risk off move. all told almost 3% down from the

highs in the s&p. we're a sort of trying to make peace wait 4.5% 10-year yield, a little more present than the notion, maybe we have to wait for a fed rate. >> i was going to say where you left it there, you watch yields next week, you know, to see what happens and how much pressure, if they continue to go up or back up, that that's going to continue to put on the market. >> or if that's where, you know, buyers seem to feel there's value being created. some level, as we saw today, you know, it becomes self-correcting because people get really scared of other stuff that's bigger than the fed, they'll start to buy treasury yields. >> mega caps are going to be a tell next week. see the weakness continues and the broader meaning of that could be. apple staring at that 4% up on this week. >> this feels like a -- if you're reducing crowded positions across the board you're kind of buying the stuff you're under weight or short like apple because it's been a dog and selling the stuff where you have the profits.

that said, it's really made a stand in this area multiple sometimes in that 170 range. it definitely takes the edge off of the valuation. you kind of get a feeling that, you know, it's under performed the other big flames enough in the short term. i think that's why you get this mean reversion type move. the bigger issue might be is there really selling behind the pullbacks in meta, in the other real big winners of this trade, or is it just kind of, again, taking some off the top, pay some taxes, reduce your overweight. >> a lot of these dips have been bought and that's what you're alluding to. we're going to start getting a busy earnings calendar. we started with the banks. stocks do poorly. now it gets real. the calendar is full next week and the movement in the stocks based on what the earnings are going to be a tell as well. >> for sure. it's interesting last quarter the reporting season started off stingy in terms of the market not giving that much benefit for

the beat and also punishing the misses. but then it sort of settles out over the course of the earnings season. it would be a welcome thing to have a lot of dispersion in the market. a lot of stocks going their way because of their own news and monday fundamentals and that would be a little bit of a rescue from the macro spiral that we've been in for a while which is all about inflation and the fed and yields. >> nasty day for some under the nvidia surface chip names. intel today down more than 5%. amd is down more than 4% today. you have this news that china told telecoms to remove foreign chips. >> which seemed like, obviously, a catalyst, but maybe not. some brand new fresh thing that's a needle mover for all of the stocks in the group. it is -- it has been nvidia, amd, and broadcom against everything else. there really hasn't been much conviction in semis in the

cyclical drivers. you look at the equal weighted semis it's done nothing for months while the market cap weighted driven by nvidia has really been the big winner. again, these stocks are momentum, they're secular growth, and to some -- and sometimes they're just kind of bau beta and when the market is down they get hit. >> seema moody, oil up, bonds up, dollar up, vix up, gold up, new record again. >> and what makes this interesting, scott, the prospect of higher interest rates does not seem to be stopping gold's rally. we're looking at the yellow metal hitting another fresh high today, trading above $2300 an ounce as investors pile in. gold, now on track for its third straight week of gains, slightly lower right now, but pimco's mohammad el arien posting central banks are looking to gold as a way to hedge against geopolitical risks. goldmanman's price target, $2700. analysts seem to think there is

more room for upside here, scott, when looking at gold. >> appreciate that, seema moody. want to weigh in on what's happening with gold. >> yeah. it's one of those things where you can kind of construct your narrative, real rates have been going up, used to be that's what mattered for gold. there was a technical breakout and see capital flight into it. people are unnerved whatever it might be, whether treasury supply or the deficit or geopolitics. that said, sheer vertical momentum in gold recently has gotten it, you know, way up in thin air. that's why i think that you can look at the fact that it lost the juice midday as something that i think is probably a positive it's not just going to completely -- >> it is key, i would think, for next week as well, we break the commodity and dollar fever. >> the reflation trade, it's fine as long as it's really kind of following global growth expectations and things like that. really just outsized moves in cultural contracts and things

like that. i think it makes it seem as if there's a little more behind it in terms of just fast money grabbing on these things and, you know, has an inflation aspect to it, but i do think that it's getting a lot of adherens all of a sudden the idea that commodities are some place where you don't -- if you're looking for something to diversify that's not called treasury bonds people are finding their way. >> look, we're still down about 5 500 on the dow but off the worst levels. likely a 2% down day for the russell 2000, not so much for the others, although obvious weakness. financials, let's sort of bring the back full circle where the day started. they delivered, the stocks did not. >> no. >> and you have that sector the worst today. >> it's this very difficult for this group to perform if you're worried about is fed is not going to give them relief. the economy is okay. the credit metrics were fine in the financials. that's why i wouldn't panic too much about that. we got an ipo that traded up

today. it seems as if this could just be kind of the ebb and flow on a risk off day. i'm not ready to say that's going to lead the market. >> deep breath. bell rings. have great weekend. see you on the other side in "o.t." >> stocks sinking again as inflation fears and a selloff in bank stocks weigh on the market. that is the scorecard on wall street. the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm deirdre bosa. morgan brennan and jon fortt are off. the s&p and dow lower while the nasdaq's losing streak hitting three weeks. we've got much more ahead. nvidia ceo jensen huang is about to give a speech on artificial intelligence at oregon state university. we're monitori