tv Fast Money CNBC April 22, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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going back to what general mackenzie was talking about, lockheed martin, ge, rtx and geopolitical conflict. >> i liked the importance of visa in tracking consumer spending and the global signals that could send. >> yeah, one to watch, many to watch. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what as on tap tonight. big tech on deck. meta, microsoft, alphabet, tesla, all set to report this week. but after the stock's recent selloff, will the results give them a boost or more cause for concern? we're going to talk it out. plus, a bit ccoin bounce. prices are back on the rise, so, can gains keep coming? and what's next for the crypto space? our bitcoin baller b.k. is here to break it down. and the ftc moving to block tapestry's acquisition of michael kors parent capri.
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why the move? and what does it mean for the two companies' futures? on the desk tonight, we have carter worth, courtney garcia, dan nathan, and guy adami. we're going to start with the sigh of relief for stocks. the s&p 500 surging nearly 1% to snap a six-day losing streak. the dow gaining 250 points, the nasdaq leading the charge up 1.1%. markets did close off their highs of the session, though. and are still well below their recent records. the s&p down about 4% in the past month and the nasdaq down nearly 6% in that same period of time. all 11 s&p 500 sectors were in the green today, with tech the notable standout. nvidia leading that group higher, up more than 4% for its best day in over a month. but this comes after friday's 10% selloff. in fact, all ofthe so-called magnificent seven stocks with the exception of tesla, finishing the day higher. this all happening as we get ready for big tech earnings
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kickoff. meta reporting wednesday, microsoft and alphabet on thursday. amazon and apple on the docket for next week. so, how should investors interpret market moves ahead of these prints? guy, welcome back, i know you were off for a little bit. was today just sort of more of a reprieve, is this a fomo trade? you got to be in before you hear the reports? what do you think? >> probably a little bit of all of those, great to have you onboard. i think, look, the market, six straight days lower, technically, i think the s&p held the 100-day moving average. carter can talk about that. and the fact that nothing happened over the weekend, thank god, geopolitically, that was a bit of a retrieve, as well. i don't think we're out of the woods and earnings are coming up. amazon next week, if you go back to november of 2021, you will see a textbook potential double top. they better blow it out. and microsoft this week at 31
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times earnings down maybe 7% from its all-time high, that stock really has to prove itself as well. so, i'm clearly not as enthusiastic going into earnings as others may be. >> proving it is really going to be important over the next week or so. again, i look at netflix and how it responded to the quarter they reported, which was great on the subscriber number. and down 9% or so on friday and a follow through today, and i say to myself, that is a matter of expectations, right? so, a lot of investors were pricing this in. looking a quarter out, two quarters out, is this as good as it gets? i see the reaction, you know, the nasdaq was up 1%, the s&p up a little less than 1%. i see apple basically flattish on the day, i see google up 1.5%, amazon up 1.5%. i see meta down on the day or flattish, something like that. i just don't see a lot of performance. microsoft was up a half a percent or something like that. the biggest names in the market that led us up for the better part of this year are the ones
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that are going to actually have the biggest s&p earnings contribution. i think at some point, i think investors -- this might be as good as it gets in this cycle, as we get through q-1 and q-2 earnings, we have a strong dollar, we have higher rates, we have commodity input prices much higher, and i just kind of say to myself, you know what? great performance this year, maybe you take a breather, last year from the july highs to october lows, we had 11% peak to trough decline and only 5% or so? >> it's nothing. the give-back is very minor in terms of duration and magnitude. we know from the october low, a six-month move, over 32% for the nasdaq 100, so, we're down seven, eight. it was up big today, right, but the real headline is, from its peak as of friday's close, the ndx was down 8% and now it's down only 7%. we bounced 1%. it's meaningless. the presumption is this correction has more room to run. >> even though we're expecting
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first quarter earnings growth for the magnificent seven to be 40%, compared to the rest of the s&p 500 to be down 3%. >> i think what you're seeing right now, this rotation has really started. we talked about this earlier in the year. rates are coming down, everybody continue to go into your growth sectors, but with rates being higher, you are seeing how quickly things change and values outperform your growth. you're seeing things like energy, gold are outperforming as people are going to those defensive sectors. this week is going to be that show me, where we're seeing all the big tech sectors. everything i think people have been waiting for, this week, if that value continues to outperform growth, i think that's likely going to continue. or if we just see earnings this week and people are right back in, that could be the end of it. but this is the week that really going to tell you. >> you said it is a show me story for these stocks, what do you want to hear about? what's the magic sauce that's going to turn you a little bit more bullish? >> nvidia is interesting.
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they don't report until the end of may. >> right. >> if you think customer concentration they have, it's amazon, meta, google, and microsoft. i'm going bagck to what i saw today, nvidia up 4.5%. today, a $2.2 trillion market cap company. if microsoft doesn't speak to higher enterprise spend or higher r&d spend, if we don't hear that from some of the big customers, the semi trade is over. and it's over already, if you look away from nvidia, intel has not really been participating, amd is down 35% from its march 8th highs, we're starting to see some massive bifur ration, so, if some of their customers this week, for the next week and a half, don't confirm the 80% eps growth this year, the 80% expected sales growth this year, then nvidia is coming down, too, and that's the last thing that's holding together the nasdaq, at least at this stage of the game. that being said, it's not too
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frequent we look up and look at the s&p outperforming the nasdaq. not at least that i can remember in the last few years. that's going on right now.tells the top heavy names. >> amd had a good performance today. >> who cares? it's done. it's over. the stock is broken. >> also it uswas up the most, s there's proportionality to the give-back. >> when you look at the patterns of some of these names, carter, what are your, pec expectations? any clues? >> there's been no outperformance in terms of the qs for three years. if you went to the prior high, that's 4 january 2022, and watch the performance, you have the nasdaq draws down 37%, the s&p, 27%. and they're even money over three years, so, on a risk-adjusted basis, the qs have been a disaster.
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that is a relative performance chart. all we've done is recouped all of the relative losses over the last three years. if they don't deliver which is dan's implication, and they pull the asml type move, we will have a lower market. >> what would you advise, if folks want to get in on this magnificent seven trade, is it smart to do it here? >> i mean, we absolutely still have exposure there. i don't think it's something you want to be out of, but it's something i'm not chasing right now. i'm adding money to things like banks who have been outperforming, value companies, energy, that's where we've been adding all year. i'm still continuing to do that with new money, but i wouldn't get out of -- i would still make sure you have the exposure. if you don't have any, i mean, it's never too late to get in. i wouldn't be chasing it, either. >> wean we're talking about the patterns, obviously today felt a little better than friday. of course, if you're bullish, but how much really stock can you put in the moves that we saw here today? i mean, i just think about fomo
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so much, guy. >> i think you're right to think about that. some of it is relief. we traded down to levels where we should have bounced. it makes a lot of sense. again, the fact that the weekend was relatively quiet makes sense, but for me, court, i think the die was cast. and we talked about this that day, on march 8th, when you saw a huge reverse ale, specifically in nvidia and a couple other names. since that day, though the broader market went higher, nvidia's never reclaimed those levels. obviously. you mentioned amd. quickly about amd, that stock reported, i think january 30th. that day it closed in the 180s. it traded lower on the back of earnings. then it was off to the races. we're now significantly lower than we were their last earnings release. some of these things are seemingly breaking down. not because they're bad companies, but because the valuation just got too excessive in my opinion. >> interesting stuff. the f ttc moving to block tapestry's $8.5 billion acquisition of capri holdings. this is news just out here.
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a deal that is looking to combine three close competitors, tap tapestry's coach and kate spade and capri's michael kors brand. tapestry responding to the move, saying, quote, there is no question that this is a pro-competitive, pro-consumer deal, that the ftc fundamentally misunderstanding both the marketplace and the way in which consumers shop. cnbc.com reporter gabrielle is with us. i know this has been rumored for some time. now we have confirmation, 0 ferbly from the ftc, they are suing to block this deal. what is your initial reaction? >> great to see you, courtney. and my initial reaction is, this is putting cold water on big megamergers that banks might be trying to get through. this is not the first time that the ftc under president biden has blocked a merger of this size. blocked some other ones. and what does this mean for deal-making moving forward? all of my sources in the industry, no one expected this
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to be one that the ftc would want to make an example out of, and when we started to see some inklings come out about this, they were considering a lawsuit, i mean, there was a lot of shock in the industry, you know? so, what does this mean for deals moving forward? and also just a lot of surprises. this is what the ftc is up to. >> yeah, i think i was pretty surprised, as well, that this is one they went after, but then it seems like the market warmed up to the idea, because stocks -- both stocks are sort of hardly moving in reaction, so, i think many people thought this was coming down the pike. i find it very interesting, when you would look at some of their partners, some of the wholesale relationships they have with the bigger department stores, that, from my reporting and probably yours, as well, were looking forward to this deal, it sort of makes things more simple for them when you're dealing with the vendor relationships and saw them as very independent brands, because i don't believe consumers really understand what parent company owns each of these brands.
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>> yeah, that's exactly right. consumers aren't thinking about capri owning jimmy choo and versace. you would be surprised they own all those brands. you mentioned the wholesalers, and that's kind of a big part of this. you have michael kors, mid-tier luxury, you are tapestry's coach and kate spade, mid-tier luxury, all three of these brands are heavily present in mid-tier department stores like macy's, but then they also have a huge presence in tjmaxx and, you know, tjx companies. and, you know, in that case, that's what the ftc is saying, it's going to take away from the competition. obviously, capri and tapestry, before they decided to join up, they were watching very closely each other's prices, what kind of products they were pointing out, and that's that competition that the ftc wants to see. so, their concern is, especially in the mid to lower tier, where some of these brands end up when they get oversold and overly discounted, there's going to be less competition, and that could be a concern for tjx, as well,
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because you want to be able to offer these items at the right type of price for the type of customer that goes to these places. you know, because they would have a monopoly on these three brands, not to use that language, that's the ftc's language, would they be able to offer that competitive pricing? >> i mean, here's the thing, this is tax dollars not at work, i mean, honestly. if you were head of the commission, the team came to you this is what we're going to work on -- they regulate milk for a reason and lights for a reason. handbags and shoes? nobody cares. what's the market cap of the two companies? $15 billion? tesla traded $15 billion today. this is absurd. >> yeah, it does really surprise me, again, because when we look at these companies, to me, the brands sort of can stand on their own in the consumer's mind. they're soindependent. putting together the two parent companies, to me, does not lower the competition, but you know, what -- i guess i'm not the ftc. gabriel, thank you so much for
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joining us here last minute on this breaking news. appreciate it very much. guy, make you interested -- >> no. you've talked about this. the market is trading as if they've expected this. it's doing nothing. if you look at tapestry real quick, we're up against levels we last traded, i think, in the fall of 2021. the one that sticks out and we talked about an the show, tjx just defies -- i don't want to say logic, but it defies some of the other retailers. at 20 times earnings, probably twice the valuation of those other two companies we just talked about, you can actually still make a compelling case. they don't report until middle of may, may 22nd. here's a name you want to stay with until earnings on may 22nd for sure. >> one of the most fascinating names in retail to me, tjx. coming up, gold loses its shine. we're charging into the tesla trade ahead of results and bitcoin, how the crypto-currency is faring after the halving. first, tiktok nearing
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midnight as law makers look to vote on a divest or ban bill. more on that when "fast money" returns. you're watching "fast money" here on cnbc. we'll be right back. into the vending area. oh, not the fries! where's the ball? -anybody see it? oh wait, there it is! -back into play and... aw no, it's in the water. wait a minute... -alligator. are you kidding me? you got to be kidding me. rolling towards the cup, and it's in the hole! what an impossible shot brought to you by comcast business.
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welcome back to "fast money." time may be running out for tiktok. the senate set to vote on a bill tomorrow that would force the app's owner byte dance to sell the social media mrplatform or face a ban in the u.s. that's part of a package that would provide aid to ukraine, israel, and taiwan. for more on what's next for tiktok, let's go to julia boorstin. good to see you. >> hey, courtney. that's right. tiktok is fighting this legislation, and if the bill is signed as expected, tiktok is expected to fight it in court. the company saying that a ban would, quote, trample the free speech rights of 170 million americans, devastate 7 million businesses, and shutter a platform that contributes $24 billion to the u.s. economy annually. bernstein says that if a tiktok ban does happen, a potential $16
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billion in 2025 ad revenue could be up for grabs. and that meta would be a big winner from a potential tiktok ban, because it has the highest overlap in tiktok creators. and with americans spending more time on tiktok than any other social platform, in addition to the benefit to meta, youtube and also snap could also see a boost in terms of user engagement, as well as ad revenue. bernstein projecting that if tiktok is banned, snap's revenue would grow 37% next year, versus 14% with no ban. youtube would grow 23%, ten percentage points higher than without a ban. meta would grow 18% rather than 13%. so, courtney, some really strong projections here about how all these other players would benefit, but this is still quite a ways off. >> yeah, absolutely. i understand this could actually take years before it really went
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into place. julia, thank you so much for the update on that. i mean, dan, that's interesting, $16 billion in ad revenue potentially up for grabs. >> here's the flip side of that. this is something you track closely. temu and shein. what if they top advertising here? >> i've been trying to figure out what this means for them. >> it could net out a bunch of that. i think snap would be the buggest beneficiary, because of their revenue base. but you know, again, this is not going to happen until after the election anyway, and so, i just don't think it's something that a lot of investors are going to be pricing in any time soon. >> what do you think, courtney, does this up the ante for any company that is operating with a connection to china here in the united states, even if t's an alibaba, e-commerce, they're talking about privacy, but i mean, you're giving them information when you're ordering from alibaba to your personal details, i mean, does this put other companies potentially at risk? >> i mean, it absolutely does. the question is, is this
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actually going to go through, where does the buck stop from there? so, you bring up a really good point. it's interesting, it comes in this year which is going to be such a political football. if you are trying to get the gen z vote and take away tiktok, i don't know if that's what you're trying to do with that. i don't know if that will go through, if we're going to see a ban of tiktok. it would be one of those political suicide things, but that is the argument of, who is it going to benefit? it could benefit snap chat, they have a younger demographic. i would argue google will benefit, because they have youtube, which is definitely going to benefit them. probably more so even than a meta, but i think this is all just, like, a little too soon to talk about. i don't know if this is going to go through. i think it would be -- you are giving up votes to do this. >> fair enough. guy, what do you think? >> i think former president trump will absolutely use this as a campaign, one of the things to campaign on. president biden is taking away your tiktok, you know, look at
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me, i'm all for, facebook is getting more powerful, they're trying to -- you know those tweets are coming or whatever platform they use. those are coming to a theater near you, but not the ones that win. apple's in the crosshairs here, without question. we're thumbing our nose at the chinese,justified or not. they will retaliate in some way. apple finds themselves with a bulls eye on their back. and the last couple months it's been trading that way. >> that is a really interesting point. i've been thinking about temu and shein. coming up, not all that glitters. gold notching its worst day since february 2023. so, over a year. but after such a runup this year, where could the yellow metal be heading? plus, shares of tesla rolling downhill this year. could anything from tomorrow's conference call cause the stock to do a u-turn? you never know with mr. musk. we are plugging in and checking the charge in the options pits ahead. you're watching "fast money." we're back rig aerhihtft ts.
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steam as worries continue over the conflict between israel and iran. nikki steels is the head of metal strategy. thank you so much for joinings here today. so, the big drop today, you think it's just temporary? >> look, i think you've got to put things in perspective, right? and since the october 7th hamas attack, we've been in a straight line, $600. so, yes, it's been a pretty, you know, deep, one-day retraction. now, do you think geopolitics does sort of kick things off into frothy territory, but this is so much more than geopolitics. this has happened against a backdrop where we've got from seven fed cuts to three to two. we've had a very strong dollar, and you've had, you know, geopoliticssimmering, but this is a regime shift that i think gold is internalizing over the last few months and geopolitics
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sort of takes it into over-frothy territory. >> so, what's the next catalyst, if you have so many potentially at play? >> i mean, i do think we go higher, but ultimately, you know, 2,500, but it's not going to be a straight line the past six months. i think a healthy correction is in play, because i think you're going to get a lot more people involved who have missed this move. a lot of people, etfs have nod really subscribed. we talk about strong physical command, but it's not firing on all four to five cylinders. so, i do think some sort of correction, 2,300, 2,200, and it will relate going forward. >> it's interesting, we talk about, this is a safety trade, you're the best person to have on today, but as we've talked about, 2022, central banks bought $70 billion worth of gold, record at the time. they did the same last year. probably on pace this year to do similar lawyer. so, this is a central bank story, probably more than
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anything else. thoughts on that? >> absolutely. and i think it's -- this is what makes this time different. and you are so wary of saying that in anything in financial markets, why is this time different? but this time is different versus all the other big gold rallies, because you've been -- you had fig call and central bank buying that's coming in and they're increasingly less price sensitive like they've been in 2011 gold spike, in 2020, and so, it does have a lot more legs and a higher core foundation. >> what is your base case for what is fed is going to do and how does that track with gold? >> my base case is, you know, was three cuts is probably going to dial down to two for sure, but at the end of the day, does it really matter when gold's still rallying and went from seven cuts to two cuts right? so, they're going to cut this year, i think they'll be constrained to cut. one, elections, and secondly, it's interest rate control. so -- it's -- they'll cut and,
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you know, i think gold will just price in a less bullish trajectory, if they're not cutting as much as we expected. >> what about silver? >> very bullish silver. i think if you play on that sort of u.s. exceptionalism theme, green revolution, it's taking a little bit from your sort of bitcoin crowd, who are sort of full up on that, i think it's both a gold proxy and a reflation proxy. and i think it fits into all of that. very undervalued versus gold. >> thank you so much. >> thank you. >> carter, what do you make about gold? >> the interesting one is silver, of course. it had the high in 1980, the hunt brothers, and then it made a double top in 2011. and that's $50 an ounce. and we are sitting here at half that, so, the beta trade -- it's pejorative when people say poor man's gold, but silver is the interesting one. >> do you think gold has place
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in a portfolio today? >> i do. i agree that it's been a central bank story, and the question is, investor demand has been going down since 2022, so, what is going to bring that in? hopefully we don't see more geopolitical uncertainty. we do have it as part of inflation hedge, which hasn't even been working as it has historically. i think it's a piece in your portfolio. i'm not jumping in with two feet, but it's been doing fantastic. >> dan, there was a really big move today. should we buy into anything -- >> i would say this. carter -- there's some technical levels, nicky just said, you know, 2,200, that seems like the last flag it made before it went up 200 points, that breakout level at 2,100, that was a massive base. 1,600 to 2,100, you check back to that, and then you get to her 2,500 target. i would buy it technically for
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that. i don't see it melting away like we have, after a big move, because the things that guy just said, i think central banks are in there. >> right. it's nothing. the dip -- 1,600 an ounce to 2,400 an ounce, this is $100 an ounce. it's what you want if you are bullish something that's in uptrend, are dips and pull-backs. it resetsoming that's overdone. >> fair enough. coming up, tesla results on deck. the ev maker set to report earnings tomorrow after the bell. after a really rough start to the year. investors are hoping for a charge in this trade. what to expect, and the options action in the name. that's coming up next. plus, the chart master is hitting the technicals in the finance space. the brokerages, banks, and payment stocks on his radar. don't go manywhere. p "fast money" back right after this. missed a moment of fast? follow us on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.
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amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. why not? did you forget something? my protein shake. the future isn't scary, not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. 100 innovative companies, one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges expenses and more prospectus at invesco.com.
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the nasdaq jumping more than a percent. china tech jumping today, too. the kweb etf up more than 4%. looking to get into positive territory for the year. matterport stock nearly tripling, news of the company being bought by real estate data company costar, valued at $1.6 billion. and notable stock streaks on the losing side. ge healthcare on a seven-day losing streak. domino's pizza notching its eighth down day in a row. on the positive side, starbucks locking in its sixth day of gaining. some afterhours action brings you shares of cadence design that's dropping, despite a beat on the top and bottom line. the second quarter guidance did come in light. and ford shares driving higher ahead of their results on wednesday.
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up more than 6% today. its biggest gain since december. so, turning now to the tesla slump. another carmaker, the ev maker, shares caught in a seven-day funk, tying the longest losing streak last hit in degs of 2022. today's move coming after the company cut the price of its most popular vehicles and driver assistance system by as much as $2,000. tesla set to report earnings after the bell tomorrow. the company already said q-1 deliveries were down nearly 9% from a year ago. its first year over year drop since 2020. this name has really been sort of stuck in this downward trend. carter, as you watch the technicals on this chart, what is it telling you? >> i mean, of all the factors that have been studying markets, relative strength, relative performance, momentum, come up aces every time, i mean, they're not infallible, but it's what works, and it's reliable. more than any other thing. and what do we know, this is
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poor relative strength. and it's why they often call them value traps. it is usually right just to resist the temptation to buy. >> courtney, i mean, this stock, obviously, gets so much attention, but now fundamentally, they're dropping prices on some of these models, i mean, does that worry you about thetrajectory of the company? >> it absolutely does. and especially what's happening in china, they are in this price war right now. are they going to be profitable in china, with how much they're having to reduce prices? they are having to do that here in the u.s., also. they are also cutting marketing spen spend. and you're seeing this consumer demand shift. in china, they have too many competitors. here in the u.s., people are going towards hybrids. i do think as a stock you don't want to chase, but people who like tesla, they continue to love it. they put $5.9 billion into
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tesla, despite the fact it's going down too much. i think people are going to continue to chase this. i would stay on the sidelines here, but you are continuing to see people chase into that. >> yeah, obviously this is a favorite stock of so many. people love to hear what elon musk is going to say, dan. ahead of the results, what would you be doing here? >> nothing. it's a hard press. it's down 20% in the last month, 65% from those all-time highs. the series of lower highs and lower lows over the last two years, you know, people often ask, why do you look at charts -- i'm excluding you over there. the technicals have been leading the fundamentals in this story for two years. i listen to a lot of what he has to say, because it's been literally pretty simple. and if you think back over the last four quarters, this stock, the day after earnings, has sold off 10%. any time they have an opportunity to talk about their business currently and what they see, four times over the last year, the stock has sold off 10% the next day.
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right here, how weak this stock has been of late, i mean, it's really hard. there's got to be something they can say. there has not been a good comment out of this company in months. >> early last year, when they -- being tesla, told us it was trough in terms of margins, trough margins, it was going to reaccelerate, the market rewarded them. the stock doubled. went from 150 to 300 over the course of the next few months, which was a remarkable move. we've round tripped that. and you said, this is a stock that everybody loves -- if you think about it, dan just said it, this stock is 65% off its all-time high on a broader market that until last week has gone nothing but go straight up. so, you can love it all you want, but the stock has been a disaster now for the better part of three years. i don't think you press to the downside. i think you're looking for an entry level, but the entry level is a lot lower than now. >> interesting stuff. let's see what the options market is betting on in this name. hi, mike. >> hi there. yeah, the options market is implying a move of about the 10%
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that dan just referenced. puts were outpacing calls today, it was actually basically the at the money puts the most active. i think there are some ways to play it. a couple of numbers, i'm thinking about and looking to. with respect to the valuation question on where you want to enter at, this is the thing guy was saying, it's substantially lower. the street was looking for $3.67 a share for full year next year. that would represent better than 30% year on year growth. i don't think they're going to get that number. you cannot see rising eps if your unit sales are going down and your margins are going down at the same time. it's byd they're competing with in china. they did 3 million cars over the same period, tesla did 1.8. and they are able to produce these things at a lower price. if you are not basically gaining a foothold in the biggest market for evs, that's going to be a challenge. the cyber truck being recalled is part of the problem. even if it wasn't recalled, that was going to present a problem,
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because it wasn't going to take on i.c.e. cars like the f-150. they really have a tough road here. if they do manage to get down to, you know, call it 110 bucks or so, and they are going to keep better than three bucks a share, that might be an interesting area. the way to play it with options, i want to sell the high priced options that expire at the end of this week. i was looking at selling both, calendar call spread and put spread. buying a longer-dated strangle and selling the near-dated one against it, and i'm using that $10 implied move to basically set those prices. looking at selling the 120 or 125 level strike on the downside, and then maybe the 155s or 160s on the upside, so, you're selling the near-dated calls and puts and buying ones that are further out in time. you want to capture not just this earnings with the options you're buy, but the next one, too. this is going to play out over some time. >> interesting stuff.
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i always learn new strategies, mike, thank you very much for that. we'll see what happens when tesla reporting. coming up, the chart master is taking on the banks. check out schwab, a fresh 52-week high. do the technicals tell the tale of more gains ahead? well, we'll draw those lines so you can see it. you got to stick around. that's coming up next. plus, bitcoin is having a moment, up 5% already since friday's event. we'll bring in b.k. to help break down the bullish drivers behind this crypto-currency. "fast money" will be right back. s and ends with you. we believe the more personal the solution, the more powerful the result. we treat your goals as our own. we never lose focus on the life you want to build. and our experienced advisors design custom built strategies to help you get there. it's time for a wealth management experience as sophisticated as you are.
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welcome back. shares of charles schwab popping over a percent today. the stock on a steady climb since last week's earnings report. schwab nearly recovering all of its losses since the collapse of svb in march of last year. so, where is it going from here? let's turn to the chart master. carter, what are you seeing in schwab? >> steady climb. we're going to look at schwab and american express. so, four identical schwab charts, and you'll see here, the first, of course, has no lines, no drawings, no annotation, no
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judgment. let's put some lines in. second iteration. this is the definition of converging trend lines. and you'll note, of course, in the next generation, how precise the stock is, it touches it to the penny, to the penny, over and over. this is a very annoy ing thing, but it's how things work more often than not. final chart. do we break out from this formation? that's the arrow i've drawn and that's my thinking. in terms of american express, has had some very good action of late. since 1980, it's more than doubled the performance of the s&p. a great franchise to be sure. b but drilling down to the nhere and now, this is going back 30 years. this is the internal trend line that's been in effect since the dot com peak. and more up close and personal, the here and now chart, we're far above the 150-day moving average. if you have it, you trim it, sell calls, do something, rather
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than just staying blindly long. >> guy, i'm going to toss it up to you. >> if you put that chart with the lines, carter's probably right, but let the price be your guide here. i'd rather buy it on a breakout above, call it 76, than to try to buy it now. here, you're right up against resistance. the quarter was okay, but the price target between 75 and 80 bucks, people are not looking for all that much. i would rather buy the breakout above 76ish than buyit right here, somewhat counter intuitive, that's how i play it. coming up, gcrypto's glass looking half full. bitcoin ticking higher. so, what does it mean for the future of the crypto-currency? the bitcoin baller, brian kelly, joins the traders on-set. and jake im cramer is chatt with the ceo of barrick gold. that's coming up on "mad money." "fast money" will be right back.
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than anyone else. get started for $49.99 a month plus ask how to get up to an $800 prepaid card. don't wait- call today. norman, bad news... i never graduated from med school. what? but the good news is... xfinity mobile just got even better! now, you can automatically connect to wifi speeds up to a gig on the go. plus, buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. i gotta get this deal... that's like $20 a month per unlimited line... i don't want to miss that. that's amazing doc. mobile savings are calling. visit xfinitymobile.com to learn more. doc? welcome back to "fast money." bitcoin on the rise today after the crypto-currency completed its fourth halving. it slows the rate at which coins are issued. and could help generate big
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gains in the nine months after the last halving, bitcoin soared 450%. that's according to coin metrics. joining us now to talk about the effects of the- halving is bria kelly. >> good to be here. >> are we going to see another 45 >> so, i think it's certainly -- the halving effect is going to dissipate. if you talk about how many dollars into the market this is, you're talking about -- last week, it was about $60 million a day of sell pressure. that's now cut in half to $30 million a day. but you're talking about a trillion dollar market, so, it's very, very small. so, i think if anything, it's going to be the psychological impact of it, and the fact that we're all saying, hey, look at this four-year cycle that we have out there. probably what's more important, though, is when you get to see some of these bigger brokerage firms come online. morgan stanley, u.b.s. once they can have customers come into bitcoin, that's a lot of pent-up demand.
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>> what about with the etfs? >> i think actually it changes trem tremendously. that's why morgan stanley and u.b.s. are so important. they have not been able to buy those efts. you now have an asset with the most demand it's ever going to have, right? you have all these people just able to come on, and supply has been cut, coins on exchange are down so, you having a whole bunch of pent up and potential demand hitting lower supply. to me, that's the bullish setup for bitcoin. >> we had a segment on earlier, talking about gold. do you think bitcoin will ever be a safe haven-type asset? >> i think eventually it could be, but we're talking 10 to 20 years down the road. this is really -- it is still in the early stages of acceleration here. >> what kind of impact does geopolitics have on the price? >> it's had a positive impact until the last weekend, frankly, right? so, bitcoin was correlated very highly with gold. any time you have a geopolitical
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hiccup, you'd see bitcoin catch a bit. over the weekend, when we saw the israel/iran attacks, we saw bitcoin dump. it's kind of trying to figure out what its personality is, and as it gets more ingrained into the financial system and there's different traders, it's going to get correlated to other markets. >> great to have you on, my best to brian kelly, by the way, but one would have thought, i would have thought, it's traded extraordinarily well, but as the amount of fed rate cuts continues to come down, and maybe they're getting religion, should it be trading better or should it be trading worse? that's really what i'm struggling with here. >> you could make an argument either way. my argument on this, i think the fed has told us that they're going to tolerate higher levels inflation to reduce the debt to gdp. that means that your buying power in your currency is going to go down. groceries are going up. you're not goes to have as much buying power. as long as the fed says, we're not going to raise rates to 10%
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and really crush inflation, i think bitcoin does well in the two scenarios we're talking about. >> what are some other ways that -- some folks -- now that the bitcoin spot efts, you can get that exposure, buy it in an i.r.a., if you want to, what are other plays you're thinking about playing this? if you take that 10 to 20-year view, other than the eft, other than buying straight out what are other things to look at? >> i would look at some of the other coins. ethereum and sew solana. decentralized finance, heard about defi, those are two in the lead for building that. you can look towards the miners on that, as well. mining is a tough business, there's a lot of capital expend sure, you have to worry about electricity, but that's another way to play it. >> brian kelly, great to see you again. >> good to be here.
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>> courtney, do you think that bit count, crypto-currencies, have a place in everybody's portfolio these days? >> we don't have any exposure in ours. i have investors who do this on the side, because, like, our take, at least for long-term investors, is, there's really no use case. so, the only way to make money is if somebody is going to buy it from you for a higher price in the future. it's a speck play that's fine. >> i'm still trying to figure it out. carter, do the charts make any sense? can you find patterns? >> oh, sure. anything that's traded, the pattern repeats. in 2021, in november, it was where it is now, it dropped 80% and we've just now recovered to that former high of november of 2021. we're consolidating there, and the presumption is, after you contend with a former high, you exceed it. >> fascinating. still trying to figure it out. but i learn more every time i
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come on this show. coming up next, it's already time for your final trades. 'lbeig bk. were you worried the wedding would be too much? nahhhh... (inner monologue) another destination wedding?? we just got back from her sister's in napa. who gets married in napa? my daughter. who gets married someplace more expensive?
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it's time for the final trade. carter, you get to kick us off. >> sure, xbi. down 20% from its intermediate high. buy for a bounce. >> courtney? >> we haven't talked about steel. i think u.s. steel is something you want to make sure you are in. >> dan? >> if carter thinks that schwab's breaking out, then i think you play the hood in sympathy. >> and mr. adami?
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>> great having you, courtney. knick game tonight? >> knicks are going to blow it out, man. going to be great. >> man. >> macy's should be trading at least $23. letter m. >> thank you for watching "fast money." it was great to have you. "mad money" with jim cramer, though, starts right now. stick around for that. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job not just to entertain, but to put it all in context. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc newsom. tweet me @jimcramer. not all rallies are created equal. today's move and the nasda
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