ev ipo that raised the price out of the range so this will be a very important litmus test >> talking to goldman, that might feed momentum. see you at 5:00. let's get to "the half." welcome to "the halftime report." i am scott wapner. front and center this hour, the amazing resilient and maybe soon-to-be record-setting stock market getting close to another major milestone. the investment committee on how to play things right now joining me for the hour shannon saccocia, steve weiss, bill baruch, jim lebenthal. we do check the markets, we're at session lows. we're still green, though, for most of this market. the s&p is barely hanging on the big news, obviously, weiss, we're roughly 1% from a new record high on the s&p 500 tom lee says we're still a buy in may

jonathan krinsky, the path of least resistance, new highs. are you on that page, too? >> i'm on that page for now for sure after powell's dovish comments, and i said this last week or the week before, after the market sold off a little bit, what's going on here? he put a flurry into the market and said no more rate increases. so if you were worried about that, that's off the table now what was jomo turned into fomo the joy of missing out as the market was declining has turned into the fear of missing out genl that's the narrative that's been constant for the last year, i think it is, and i'm the longest i've been in memory, actually, and it's not because my memory is short, as you're about to say. >> i'm glad you said it. our viewers were thinking it i'm glad you confirmed it. >> i wanted to get that out there.

i think moderation is in order here i actually think inflation numbers will be weaker tuesday and wednesday. >> you're longer the market now than you can remember being? >> yes, correct. >> wow even in the last week since powell >> since powell. >> you're all bulled up? >> that was a trade. but the trade happened -- i didn't expect the trade, particularly in certain names, to happen as quickly as it did, candidly >> are you surprised at how, as we say, amazing and resilient the stock market appears to be >> yes, i am not surprised since he spoke because he gave you the catalyst

we heard jane frasier talk about it, how weak the consumer is and the consumer, 62%, 63% of the economy, some will say 70% of the economy you have to be conscious about that and not deluded by the upper-end consumer those that live paycheck to paycheck and always have, even when the economy was ripping, now it's starting to ebb and flow a little bit. there's even more pressure on. >> shannon, is it time, as tom lee says, to buy in may? >> well, i agree with steve, again, on a friday, feeling very benevolent powell has set the course. despite you have other members coming out saying she doesn't expect any rate cuts, it's either for rates to remain the

same or go lower we had the spike up yesterday, higher than anticipated. you have the weak consumer confidence today to resume its disinflationary trend puts the rates back on the tabling. you're moving away from this environment we had four or five weeks where everyone was focused on can we justify valuations if we're not going to get a rate cut this year? or what they were fearful of was the rate hikes hikes appear to be off the table. you look at valuations and say, okay, where do i want to be in this market? do i want to be in equities given we have seemingly a similar or better environment coming in the second half of the year and that's even without talking about earnings that's just on the valuation side >> what's notable, jimmy, is how

we've gotten to the doorstep of a new record high. this week the sectors that have carried us here, utilities up 4%, materials, industrials, real estate, you'll notice i haven't said tech. and that's been as notable as anything else, the kinds of sectors that have delivered this week, and the one that hasn't as much, and maybe that's a good thing, too >> it certainly feels good to those of us like me who have been calling for a broadening of the rally. i will quickly admit every time the rally has broadened, it has reversed seemingly a week or two later. in terms of the outlook from here, getting 1% further from here could happen any day. but i think when you get to the cpi/ppi next week is what the market is hinging on let's say, steve, you're right and it comes in softer than expected, i wouldn't be surprised if the market goes down

it feels a little full valued. $275 a share on the s&p 500. that gets you to 5500. the correction in april didn't seem deep enough when you run out of positive catalysts, again, a softer than expected inflation report next week i think the market will say, okay, what have you done for me lately it looks at valuations, at the buying spree we've been on and says it's time to take a pause in the short term a little trepidatious >> i agree with you and that's why i'm likely to unwind valuation is back to where it was and yet you're seeing the consumer weaken is more evident. it's time to really take stock of what you want to be in for the long term. >> banks have been on fire, now

at its highest level since march of last year we're looking at the best week of this year goldman, a new record high that's a seven-day win streak. i'll throw it to you, bill baruch bofa, bullish note target 44. now it feels there's more upside to our numbers than down side. >> this market is here to stay that's how i'm looking at things we have had this really sort of correction that was very, very low and shallow. year two we get leadership from financials, health care, utility, and broadening the rally, what are we getting this week we've seen the banks and utilities. bank of america, morgan stanley, all these names are performing really well. now i'm not going to sit here and say i'm rotating in yet.

i think the thrust comes from tech >> leaning heavier in it to prepare for this to come i think that we had earnings from some of the big tech companies that were but all roads are going to lead to nvidia i will not go overboard and say you need to be overweight financials and utilities that have had great weeks i think the thrust that we're going to come out of here will be led by tek. >> 12 days from now is nvidia. what about the banks is this a believable bull run ford

the stock have been on fire. should we be adding more citi, you don't own that, right? >> no, and -- >> jimmy has been trying to tell you to buy citi. >> this hurts, doesn't it? >> that's why there was a little pause. he was about to give you credit and couldn't put the football over the goal line in a weissian way that's him giving you credit. >> there's no chance of my giving him credit for anything i've been looking at it for a while. i'm impressed by jane frasier. i think she's done a fen off nal job. she has initiative going into the high end of wealth management goldman has done a phenomenal job. obviously the exchange agrees with me, they're ringing the

bell i told them not to do that every time to talk it's difficult to resist >> that's the signal for you to stop talking the chinese ev company is open this is a public offering. let's look at the chart. the banner that says we started trading and now need to see it it's up about 29%. that was a good moment because i wanted to move on anyway, weiss. we have another ipo open for business so, about tech, which we've hit, tony pasquariello, by the way, tech has been good but not great lately he says, quote -- head of hedge fund clients at goldman sachs -- do not pick a fight with the best parts of the market he says the technicals remain supportive and the high velocity breakouts of note, google, amazon and some industrial names, too, we'll get to in a minute he talks about earnings growth

for big tech, how it's so far outpacing other areas of the market, capex from that area is so outpacing other parts of the market i loved the line yesterday, bill, i can't remember who exactly delivered it from which bank on the street, but one mega cap company's capex is another and spending is another tech company's revenue, right you're buying chips, data center, all of this upstream stuff, and it's filtering through the same companies. >> look at meta. when meta reported earnings, down 15% that day what did nvidia do? it was up 2% that day. that's spending, that increased spend, that scared people, was actually going to nvidia that's where i think one of the reasons in my backbone of saying, okay, i will not get too excited because i think as we come out of this nvidia will

prove us right that spending we've highlighted from alphabet, amazon, meta, apple will show up it will show up in names that have yet to report and will be a big tail wind, not to mention the macro. i agree with everything steve said he gave us a green light >> so, weiss, new buy for you out of tech -- in tech, not out of you bought asml. tell us why. >> i owned it and after they reported, i thought it would take a while to recover. it was still expensive and if you recall what i said was i'll come back the third and fourth quarter when their order book was going toballoon for 2 basis points based on new ev technology but i was clearly wrong in selling it it's not near the size position

that it was. this is one i will decide if it's run too fast, too soon. longer term, the question for me is, unfortunate it's relatively small for me, it's a trading position do i size up on it i'd love to get the opportunity to size up lower from the third or fourth quarter on, i'm likely to stay there and pick my spots to build it up >> do you agree with the pasquariello point of view, do not pick a fight with the best partici parts of the market? do not convince yourself why it may be time to take your eye off of that ball he's urged you to keep your eye on the ball. >> i agree wholeheartedly. take a look at meta. >> new all-time high yesterday >> i agree with it sure, you can say microsoft is slightly overvalued. you can say amazon is overvalued pick your stock. the point is, it's only a moment in time they're overvalued

they will grow into the earnings wherever they are. i personally think they're appropriately valued, and if you own them, why would you sell them if you bought at a reasonable price, pay taxes so i'm there i took the opportunity, as i mentioned, to add meaningfully to meta. it was a full position now it's still over full position and netflix, i scripted netflix. i don't have jim's powers or bill's powers to script all the time if netflix misses, i'm going to add to it meanfully and right now it's a full position i think you have to take those opportunities on permanent compounders. clear, clear winners >> the other thing out of the pasquariello note, he does go beyond tech.

ge, eaton, and it reminds me of what industrials have done, too, jimmy. they've been on fire that sector is hitting a new record high today. wolf is tactically long the industrials. you have delta, which pasquariello puts on his list, too, deere, union pacific. >> yeah. well, look, it makes abundant sense to me the industrials should have good results going forward. we're building a lot of capital equipment here in the united states think about not just infrastructure spending, not just supply chain, the data centers that are being built if you're in dulles, virginia, you're seeing them all over the place. what do you need to build those? you need things like steel, to transport that steel with union pacific railroad you need to transport people here and there, to move earth with earth moving equipment. to asml and a competitor that i own, these are labelled within technology

they're building machinery, about as industrial as it gets, but those are industrials in my mind as well that will benefit from all of the things we're building in the u.s. >> weiss, caterpillar is new >> it is new and, again, i'm looking at it and waiting for it to pull back >> we still own it, yes. >> and that was a phenomenal call you made as well as simpson when he bought it. i was skeptical then with powell putting the floor on things again, i don't know if it's there to stay deere, who knows they've been -- construction is not that big enough of a part of their earnings

in terms of textron, it was a great opportunity to add off the earnings my long-term thesis has not changed. >> if you don't have enough industrial exposure, you may find up self underperforming i like the caterpillar buy, we own it united rentals -- >> all-time high you mentioned the infrastructure spending reshoring to north america, they see equipment renting. not a sexy name but continues to make highs they have great exposure to europe as well >> a news alert regarding the fed. our steve liesman, our senior economics reporter, joins us now with the details steve is going to be interviewing goolsbee and kashkari later another individual making headlines right now.

>> reporter: yeah, good afternoon, scott we have kind of a one-two punch of hawkish commentary from the fed this morning before we get to kashkari and gallons be fed governor michelle bowman saying she doesn't see rate cuts as warranted this year, in terms of getting the inflation rate down to the fed's 2% target. she said, look, if there is some kind of shock to the economy, she could foresee them i must say, scott, i'm not 100% certain this is a change for her. i don't think she has definitively come out in it regard she is saying she does not see rate cuts as warrant this had year and then you have earlier this morning dallas' lorie logan saying she is also not 100% sure that rates should be cut this year she says not at this time. both official have is been a little bit more on the hawkish side

it's interesting where the committee as a whole is and this is more the no rate cuts or one where we've heard from bostic. we'll hear from kashkari and goolsbee later this afternoon on "power lunch." >> more hawkish than the chair was, that's fair to say, right the biggest and loudest voice in the room was not certainly on the surface as hawkish as these sound. remember you had inflation expectations that were not helpful to the federal reserve much lower in the five year.

we're going to talk to neel kashkari and he has written an essay i recommend everyone read. what is the benchmark for how tight the fed is the benchmark for where the fed should be at neutral for a bun of reasons he mentions in there. one of the interesting ideas out there. if you look at that, it had come up quite a bit and had eased off recently what this whole debate, is the fed restrictive enough and how do we gauge it i think it's on the minds of a lot of investors >> good stuff. we will look forward to those interviews and will talk to you later, steve liesman, our senior economics reporter more moves i still want to get to as we talk about tech and well-known names netflix, you bought more of it,

mr. weiss. why did you do that? >> you have to buy this one when it's down. i wouldn't say they stand alone, but clearly they're the leader of the pack. they're the leader in the pack in that they basically created the space, number one. and, number two, they have the most content you've seen others fall by the wayside whether it's amazon or some of the others in the news lately that just find they can't get traction so at the end of the day, you're going to be left really with netflix number one and the disney/hulu combination. apple will bob along but not too much that's why i did it. plus, the ad business is picking up you see more multilanguage content coming out there's no reason not to own it. >> weiss, active in the market

we'll take a quick break we have trades on meta, united health and more. they are all on multiday win streaks. we have ownership across the board, too we'll find out how the committee is playing a lot of names as we move forward in our program. we're back in two minutes. >> announcer: are you following "the halftime report" podcast? what are you waiting for look for us in your favoteri podcasting app follow "the halftime" podcast now.

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let's talk some win streaks for the committee, because there are several. let's do at&t. we already talked about meta, which is up seven days in a row. at&t coming off a five-day win streak that's yours what's behind this >> it sold off really hard early in april on an earnings miss, and i think what we've seen is this come back it battled through the negative news and the way i see this, they've had a tremendous amount of capex to prepare for 5g and the spend is already in. we'll see margins expand in the quarters to come >> how much of the move do you think is given their yield versus where rates and bonds

have gone? >> a lot of people look at verizon and at&t and look for yield plays right away, especially they've been levitating the last year and a half. >> what about united health, jimmy, a four-day win streak for unh. >> a big sentiment change since the earnings the earnings were simply, you know, good enough. they weren't blow-out. expectations were clearly low. you look at united health, it's the absolute leader in the industry take a look at cvs at the other end of the spectrum. the second thing is the valuation isn't as expensive as many people used to think it is. it's pretty attractive at this price. >> adm four days in a row, weiss? >> yeah, look, it sold off right now it's in a holding pattern. the earnings were sort of punk i own it for the restatement of the earnings coming out and they have said repeatedly that statements can be minor.

there was fraud there. the stock should go back to 80 >> philips 66 four days in a row, bill. >> i like refiners a dead cat bounce off the low in energy recently. energy can top leading into moral weekend or off, so i'm hesitant to say this is a rally, more a balance from a sell-off at the moment. >> the infrastructure etf seven days in a row, the longest since august of 2022, jimmy. >> why the last seven days i think it's probably because of a pivot. what jay powell said, where that

trade goes bad is if interest rates go higher. to the extent that rate cuts are still in the picture, this will still do fine. >> i think that's accurate you're seeing more onshoring they are moving from china coming back to the u.s. driven by the tax incentives, by the spending you're not going to build these massive fabs at tsm, micron without infrastructure spend >> and everyone has been targeting the summer of this year as where that money starts to flow. >> let's talk about a losing streak for abbvie, jimmy down four days in a row. >> i very much believe that the prospects are intact for this stock to return to growth, both with its pipeline that it has and the acquisitions it's made recently i think the acquisitions are probably why it's been down

recently, the costs associated with them. but that buttresses the pipeline going forward. the second thing that's held it back is the fear humera will get eaten away by generics that's not happening all that fast frankly, as the company continues to grope away from it, it is less and less important. i think this is a good buying opportunity. let's get the headlines with bertha coombs. the united nations general assembly backed up palestinian bid to become a full u.n. member this morning recommending to the u.n. security council to reconsider the matter favorably. the united states voted against the resolution along with eight other nations. a school board in virginia has voted to restore the names of confederate military leaders at two public schools. the shenandoah county school board voted 5-1 in favor of the measure which reverses a 2020 decision in the wake of george floyd's murder to strip those names of confederate leaders

from the schools and the wnba may be heading north. toronto has been awarded a franchise with play expected to start there in 2026. now the league declined to confirm the story but does tell cnbc it continues productive conversations with potential owners in several markets. they want to see caitlin clark in toronto, too. >> they sure do, bertha. thank you. bertha coombs. up next, all that glitters is more than gold. a number of metals and minings plays. of our legacy. where excellence, comfort, and electricity... are forever in bloom. welcome to beyond. the mercedes-maybach eqs suv.

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♪♪ ♪ shares of mcdonald's are popping at this very moment. let's get to kate rogers with a market flash as to what's behind all this, kate yes, mcdonald's is prepping a $5 value meal to bring customers back in this competitive environment. a source familiar tells me that it will include either a mcchicken or a mcdouble with a four-piece chicken nuggets, fry

and soft drink this idea failed two weeks ago mcdonald's brought it back again. deal details are being hammered out, as you can see the stock is getting a nice pop value remains key. mcdonald's really leaning into its core menu items that have done well with consumers the value meal at $5 with those four items would be lower than ordering those all individually. back over to you >> i appreciate that bill baruch, the stock is up 2%. what do you think? >> it's not enough to get me excited about mcdonald's we sold the name for domino's pizza. that rotation worked out well. the thing i am paying attention to is the digital marketing. mcdonald's may require franchises to put into the digital market fund. look what the stocks have done there's been head winds from the middle east and head winds from the expensiveness, starbucks, some of the names need to start lower costs a little bit, too.

>> let ace hit some other things on the move. metals a bit of a melt up gold, the highest level since april, well, last month. gld, the gdx, a new high today the gold consolidation looks buyable says mcgrath do you agree >> i'm watching gold i agree. if you were trading commodities, i do trade commodities and run a gold metal fund, gold came off sharply in april it looked like it was capitulating a bit it's built out a nice bull flag and has moved out above that the u.s. dollar, some favor if the u.s. dollar weakens. once the fed does that first cut, china 18 straight months of

gold though it was slower. brazil, russia, india, china, south africa, brics, are selling hand over fist >> copper, is up 3.24% this week the fifth positive week in sixth. the highest level for silver in a few weeks. shannon, what do you think your idea to start the year was commodities. >> really that was on a combination of potential escalating geopolitical risk, i would say we have. a stronger recovery in china we got in the first quarter, copper, to your point, there are

supply fragilities. if you look at gold, there are some dynamics shifting in terms of the demand for gold based on inflationary factors and geopolitical risks, there's a nice tail wind >> southern copper is yours, too, right >> it's been an animal recently. a lot of this had started with china cutting down the smelting and really the reason why they cut down the smelting was the raw material, there was not enough supply of it. they couldn't make the high-grade copper that goes into the infrastructure spending. there is a lack of supply and overdemand southern copper is one of the most pure plays where the best run mining companies in general. we really like the name a lot. >> weiss, do you think any of

the metals movement is because there is newfound optimism around china and what some perceive as a legit recovery >> yeah, you know, that's a good question there are lots of variables going into this that, number one, we talked about the onshoring again. so the industrial metals, silver, et cetera, are going to play a part in that. look, i can make a case for gold being inflation hedge or being the opposite of that i don't know if you look at a 10 year, 20 year, 30 year chart of gold, you missed a lot of opportunities if you kept it there. it's a store value more so than bitcoin which is not a store value at all we've seen the commodity move. shannon called it early. i just think these are always, always trades not investments. >> the monster move happened yesterday. jobless claims came in higher than expected.

a big increase in imports and exports was the big driver there. >> up next the trade on target ahead ofearnings it's a very big week for retail coming up. we have mike santoli on the other side of this break with his "mdawo." a back right after this this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo

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♪ welcome back to "the halftime report. i'm dominic chu. we have some breaking news jim simons has died at the age of 86 according to an announcement from the nonprofit he and his wife marilyn simons founded in 1994. simons was considered by many to be one of the founders, if not the founder, of modern quantitative investing, and that was mostly due to his work founding and running renaissance

technologies went on to become one of the most successful investing firms, hedge funds in history he was a markets guru. he focused on things ranging from math and sue yens to the origins of the universe itself jim simons is survived by his wife, children, grandchildren and one great-grandchild scott, just from a personal anecdote standpoint, as a former program trader who worked for a fund company, i can tell you how much jim simons was an influence on all of wall street. back over to you >> i appreciate that from you, dom, thank you that's dom chu lets start there because we're not only talking about a legend, obviously, in quantitative investing, but this was a genius in mathematics, which was really

his trade and his forte and why we're talking about how successful he was as an investor >> a brilliant mathematician who worked as a code breaker and everything else before he was a math professor and then founded ren tech the returns you almost can't believe over the course of 40 years you could accrue that. quantitative investing doesn't quite get at it in the way we think of it now where it's value strategies and momentum and automated fundamental based things it was mathematically, statistical arbitrage, trying different statistical relationships, what works, what doesn't, retesting, retesting, iterating, iterating he has a team of mathematicians and other science trained programmers out on long island where he's based i recommend -- my old friend at the "wall street journal" wrote "the man who solved the market" from a few years ago it's ironically titled, in a

way, because jim simons wouldn't tell you he solved the market. he would almost tell you he doesn't know how the models work whether he's being coy or not, that's what he would say >> how things happened within the market now to the point, you know, we talk about it almost as, oh, well, the quants and algos and all of this. we don't talk about any of that without a gentleman like jim >> he started out in commodities, that were a little more in tune to a momentum type strategy, the way we think of ctas, but it did evolve. we're talking about tiny little statistical blips, hunting and hunting for microsecond inefficiencies in the market what he would do there were multiple strategies >> do you have any thoughts, weiss? i sadly don't think i ever had the chance to meet mr. simons. i'm not sure if you knew him at all. >> i didn't know him, but we looked at investing in renaissance. the big fund was for the

partners and created immense wealth, he had a renaissance fund and the numbers just blow you away you say how could he keep doing this year after year after year? and the answer is because at times he had between 50 and 200 data scientists. nobody had that. the point is there's a constant, constant thirst for learning more and more. >> and, by the way, there were big drawdowns over the years they thought they weren't going to make it you then have to come back and refine the process >> he did and found where he went wrong the markets change they catch up pretty quickly you have to re-invent that >> we'll get thoughts later on at mike santoli. thank you for being here for that we're right back after this.

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let's do our "call of the day. it's targets you get a bullish forecast today from a bullish look from jp more began. they say the price target is 185. i believe the stock is higher given the degree of the potential beat they anticipate and also favored to this in the long term. you own this >> i do. came out of its tough selloff late last year and it has been moving very well ever since they had the inventory problem and when you look at the deep internals of the company, you can move positively from an turn it into a positive direction from a management side of it and against the tail winds and

everyone is starting to wake up to it. >> and as you suggested, we have differing views of where the consumer truly is. the sentiment number today was terrible it is walmart, depot,armor and goose and other numbers. >> and importance of the lagging numbers is in the market, the quarter that ended last month for retail because they were on an off year, falls in place with consumer sentiment >> do you like any consumer names at all >> i consider netflix a consumer name amazon is a consumer name. so i come play the consumer that way. dick's sporting goods, that has

been a great story again to leading in the category and i think that they can withstand any consumer pressure because it is for kids you spend on your pets and your kids and those are the things that i always hold dear so i look at that and frankly, i know i sold it way lower and regret it, so i can blame you, but -- that is not true, but it could be but i'm waiting for this to come back >> what is your pick, tractor supply >> no, casey's convenience stores has been a darling. and i agree there is a question about what is the state of the consumer i think we had a good tell a minute ago when don was talking about mcdonald's and the value pricing. that is an indication that inflation is coming down you can look at things like used cars that will help the countrier. by the way also i have a lot of

stocks not considered traditional retail but depend on the consumer consuming think about general motors sgli >> i knew you were going to say than final trades are next. investment professionals know the importance of keeping their clients on track. sometimes they need help cutting through the noise, to ensure fresh investment ideas keep flowing, and to analyze the market from every angle. at allspring, we deliver the unexpected, by relentlessly exploring where others don't. allspring, follow the insight.

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another check of zeekr it is up about 30% opened 26. and now at 27.30 3:00 eastern time closing bell, got a good one jeremy siegel is joining us. and a full deck as we take you through the final stretch today. let's do final trades. >> and utilities, i didn't have ai driving utility demand on my bingo card for the last couple years, but we see it and also have electrification. >> farmer jim. >> applied materials the best of both worlds. industrials as well. >> and gdx it could be their time to shine. they are looking to close the week on two year highs looking good for metals. >> and taiwan semi

>> why did you look at me like that >> because you treated me with -- >> but you have-wise >> and taiwan numbers say 50% up year over year quarter to quarter up 29%. and jim is enjoying me, thank you, jim >> and you can stop now because we're done t"the exchange" is now. and hi everybody welcome to the exchange. i'm kelly evans. here is what is ahead. is the ipo reopening real? check out what is happening. is google's ai strategy a big week for them next year, but all hinging on just one man? we'll find out more. and we've been waiting on something big from apple and they crushed it, but not necessarily how they thought they would we'll talk about all of that in a moment and plus the dow on track for eight straight days of gains just as we thought april was a down