certainly interesting geopolitical ramifications as well as we look at the market, it's holding steady s&p 500 continuing gains and sadly i missed the pats getting passed out last week >> do you want one >> no, that's a fancy one. let's get to the judge >> welcome to "halftime report." stocks extending record highs today, and some say it's heim to position for an everything rally. joining me for the hour, joe terranova. we are green, and it's taking a while this morning to get going but we are trying to put something together, and there we go technology is outperforming today along with the russell

2000 joe, we know it's about nvidia earnings this week, and a lot of things are continuing to rally s&p above 5300 nvidia approaching 950 record high, copper. it's oppenheimer with their technicals suggest to position for an everything rally. >> i think there seems to be a degree of comfort on the part of the investors. i think it's an important week, and obviously that's because of nvidia let's reflect back 52 weeks ago, and what did nvidia give us? a rally that ignited the technology rally over the last year i think universally, everybody expect the bar is incredibly high for nvidia this week. people are looking at nvidia and saying you have to beat and raise and in doing so you will light up the ai halo, which has been kind of dim since march the expectations are very high scott, when the exspeck taeugss

are high and everybody already knows that, don't be surprised if they surprise you -- >> they have done it they have done it, right, just when you thought they couldn't, they did >> right i actually would not be surprised to see nvidia deliver what the street expect, and the stock to just keep going higher. >> again, we are extending these record highs what about the idea of an everything rally do we need to be more positioned for it, the implication being that many more of the cyclical areas of the market are the ones that are going to continue to rally and have leadership? there's our wall of the everything rally this is the six month gains, and we showed you this the other day, and it's profound how many asset rallies and things are rallying around or surpassing their record highs >> i think this is a two-fold trade, right if you think about what does better in a potentially stickier

inflation environment, we will see the commodities compliment if you look at what is happening on the equity side, although in q1, earnings were dominated in the s&p 500 by the mag 5 it supports the shifting leadership in terms of what is performing well in the market, and you anticipate there could be downward positioning for the mag 5, while other sectors and specific industries within the sectors are expecting an earnings growth. if you are looking at higher than expected inflation, you are seeing that. where you want to be in a pseudo inflationary environment, we are seeing nominal top line growth, you want to look for areas where the earnings growth have an easier comp in the second haft of year and that tends to be outside of the mag 5

>> sarat, the idea of the everything rally, and deutsche bank talks about raising their outlook for the year-end target from 5500 to 51, and it's not a big surprise obviously we have blown through that on the s&p, and we are at 53 and holding above that. what they like the best, and this gets us into a deep stock conversation, and overweight financials, overweight consumer cyclicals and overweight the materials. a lot of the desk is spread all over these areas if you look at materials, they are up 8% year to date freeport, martin marietta. you are more than double the weight on the s&p in this area, so seemingly you would agree with that part of the call >> absolutely. that was a contrarian play at the beginning of the year as well, because to shannon's point these are cash flow companies. what do you look for when you have an inflationary period,

companies with cash flow, because companies can replicate that with a bond or companies with cash flow, and there are commodities with copper, and you have momentum to joe t, and he should be in there, and investors will start looking in there. same thing with financials, right? if you look at where we are and some of the catalysts coming, and they have not done much in the last three to five years but if you look at the tailwinds happening in the capital markets, and whether it's wealth management that could get a tailwind because asset prices have come up, and those are areas you can broaden the rally, and earnings can grow. comps are going to be really hard for the big tech companies, and we have talked about it in the past but when the reality comes, you are seeing that money move away and say, hey, how is meta going to have that huge quarter in the

back end of the year that's where you are seeing the broadening of the base >> of the free ports and the martin marietta and such, do you like one better than the others? >> i think freeport has great assets and cash flow i like the others, but out of those i like freeport. >> we will move to -- we will go deeper into consumer cyclical names. i want to be as actionable as possible for our viewers on a stock basis today, and we will get into financials too. it's up 8% year to date, and the implication is it's going to have a much bigger move between now and the end of the year. you are an eagle materials >> sector beneficiary. this is a cement business. what you have to look at right now from a market standpoint and then take it down, scott, to the materials companies, the industrial companies, the energy

companies, and anytime you see gold, copper, and that's why they call it dr. copper, right testing the highs they are testing right now, it suggests we may be at a pivot point in the market >> the -- put that back up, please there you go it's the six month chart, and year to date, almost five full months it has had a nice little move year to date, and i am gathering a lot of the stocks especially lately look similar to that. >> yes, and i think it's because when you see that type of rally in the commodity complex, what you see is rotations into the value sectors, rotations into the cyclical sectors, and even rotations into the international sectors. whether they are going to be able to be maintained or not, you know, we will see. we have seen some falls dawns

before this. what we have seen so far, it's still intact it suggests there's upside markets, and it would be healthy if you started to see this broadening out, obviously. seasonality is in a good place, and it typically fades in july and comes back during election time the things that worry us more than anything are not the inflation scare anymore, but it's the growth scare, because the markets would have a tough time adjusting that, adjusting to that. i think you heard a lot of conversations around what is the kind of -- the neutral inflation target, right? should it be higher than it is today, because what if the fed tries to get us to 2%? what are the implications of that what are the implications for valuation? >> bob, if you invested on the what ifs and the worries over

the last -- let's just call it six months, you have been a loser in this market, right, from a return standpoint because you have been paralyzed by the what ifs i am not talking about you, but i am talking about the collective you >> totally if you are sitting on cash, obviously, yeah. >> because you could come up with a million different scenarios, and rates could rise and that will cap multiples and this and that, and then here we are extending them >> i get it. it's a cliché, and everybody says that. what you look at what that meant from a performance standpoint, you don't have to chase the pricey stocks because if you are buying quality -- quality could mean an expensive stock delivering from a growth standpoint >> i feel like the easy money has been made in big cap tech,

right, for the most part even if they have a continued run, the easy money has been made everybody knows why you are there, and you can pretty much bank on ai, right? you still need things to go right for the highly cyclical areas of the market to do well, right? if you have a new core, and steel dynamics, and how do you view those >> i would add tech resources, which we do not own. i think it has to do with the surprising growth we are witnessing in the asia region right now, and china is having a better recovery. you are certainly seeing that in terms of the pricing of paper assets, and surprisingly outperforming so far year to date, and even in europe you are seeing a little outperformance i look at materials and think about commodities and maybe it's on a better overall economic environment, and those are my favorite names >> the consumer cyclical side of

the conversation becomes more complicated, shannon if you want to say that sector is up year to date, and there's concerns about the full range of how the consumer is doing and how it will continue to do, so the number -- the kinds of stocks within that group is pretty vast and diverse. you know, we're talking everything from autos, auto parts, entertainment, travel, retail, restaurants, at a time when we are really questioning where is the consumer truly today and how are these stocks going to do over the second half of the year? >> the question there is, too, if you look at the expectations for the second half of the year and why people are optimistic to s sarat's point, from a sk discretionary perspective, like you saw target today, they are seeing input costs come down and they are not as stretched or

pressured from what they are paying from a supplier perspective, but it's an admission that particularly the low income consumer is under pressure, and that's what we are consistently hearing from all of the discretionary companies that we have consumers seeking value. scott, that's not a bad thing for all companies, right joe, you talked about tjx for for instance, and consumer-seeking value is great for their bottom line but you have to be more selective. i understand why people are excited a excited discretionary -- >> i don't know if they are excited about it deutsch deutsche bank is excited about it >> yeah, i am concerned about the consumer i think this is a big week as it relates to the consumer, clearly with target, macy's and lowe's all reporting and -- >> ross, auto zone, and you have a number of names that would

fall within the consumer cyclical space reporting >> right i think that's an underlying theme beyond nvidia, because i think we have heard a lot about a more cost conscious consumer i do see -- i do see pockets of weakness as it relates to the consumer i see the consumer beginning to contract, and that's why i keep saying it's not going to be a soft or hard landing but a firm landing and maybe that's the best landing for the consumer overall. but i think tjx and ross stores have to prove themselves this week you need margin expansion. that's the place where cost conscious consumers are going to be visiting, but how they are managing the margin is going to be important and i think they have to prove themselves this weekend. >> you have delta, and gm, and lowe's, uber, united you are overweight, the consumer obviously with names like that,

and you can throw in disney, too. >> if you look at delta, disney, gm, and single multiples, well, not disney, but you are getting value there and seeing that grow there, and you are looking for margin expansion and growth. you have to be very careful because we have seen -- you made this point about quality and paying up for it, and i think those that did that in retail got hurt, because when you are trading like a mcdonald's and starbucks in the 20s and 30s and you don't maintain what you have done for a decade, you will get hurt i think you have to be careful in the sector because the consumer is weakening and you want to be in the right companies. >> rob, it's auto zone, mcdonald's, o'reilly, ferrari. if you are so concerned, as i know you are, about the consumer rolling over you have a lot of exposure in that area? >> yeah, it's a case of have and have nots, and we had haves and

they ended up being have nots, like mcdonald's, and we have ferrari and deckers, which are up a ton the bottom line is you cannot maintain a goldilocks scenario without the consumer it's 70% of the u.s. economy so i think you have to -- you have to make sure you are selective. there's idiosyncratic things that i think impacted the lowe's and home depots of the world >> lowe's is only up 3% on the year >> home depot is down. like i said, haves and have kn nots from a tax standpoint, it would make no sense for us to sell, but deckers is a new position, up 35% year to date. ferrari is a new position up year to date, and just i think we are hyper vigilant where we

are adding it's interesting, too, the dichotomy between the high-end consumer and low-end consumer. you have high-end restaurants doing well, and low-end restaurants not doing that well. you have people retired and they are earning returns off their savings, and that's why they are talking about if you can cut rates it will slow down the economy a bit. >> yeah, like the baby boomer boom >> yeah, it's the baby boomer boom exactly right. >> if we could, lululemon is interesting. lululemon last year was up 59%, and this year it's the worst per performing consumer discretion stock, and it could be down 34% year to date >> 35%, actually >> thewhy underperformance if tt

consumer is -- it doesn't make sense. >> a tactical buy at wells fargo, constellation you have good exposure with that with anheuser-busch. >> yeah, post covid you have people going out and they are experiencing and they want to drink beer and spirits, and as input prices are coming down now you are on the other side of that, and it will be a question of execution and where is the constellation going to make. >> scott, can i come back to joe on lulu. listen to these statistics this is a company that has 57 gross margins and 28% operating margins and minimal debt and a 22% return on investing capital, and 50% higher than the industry

average, and 25% premium to the sector, and a big discount to what it used to trade at you know, a lot of this has been about guidance around the consumer, and when it traded down it's not necessarily about what actually happened and what the numbers tell you >> real quick, and then i want to move on go go ahead go >> the revenue growth has been the problem. i have owned the stock for years. the revenue growth is in the 30% range, and it's become an idiosyncratic mature company or there's something underlying why the revenue growth is beginning to slow related to the consumer. >> thank you what about nike in the last 100 years. >> well, nike is not having a great year, is it? >> not now >> well, it has been a minute, has been a little while. lack of innovation and things that have been talked about that specific name that hurt the

performance. what has not suffered any bad performance, financials, financials are the third best performing sector and it's a big day for jpmorgan because they lifted their income guidance ahead of that, leslie picker is following that story, which, in and of itself is interesting because you don't know what jamie dimon is going to say. >> no, and he's in the middle of a spontaneous q & a as we speak right now. he's fielding a bunch of questions, several about buybacks to which he said it would be, quote, a mistake to do that at two times book which is where the stock is currently trading, and others talked about broadband bging regulations and he said that was damaging america. he shared his stance on the micropicture >> i predict that like night and day and it's a matter of time.

i am cautiously pessimistic. i think pipelines come and go and interest rates go up and come down, and there are long-term and short-term trends, and i am cautiously pest msimisc we don't really know the full affect of qt i find it mysterious that somehow it had a beneficial affect but will not have a negative affect when it goes away, and i think personally inflation may be a little stickier than people think and rates may surprise people. >> so scott, he's continuing to speak. he just gave interesting comments on ai where he said it's going to change every job, and he said -- he reiterates, every job, there will be no jobs, and some may be like a co-pilot, and some may eliminate jobs and some could create jobs, and it will be ubiquitous.

he's focused on ai and the implications for the firm. >> leslie, appreciate that very much leslie picker out there on investor day sarat, mr. jamie dimon always gives us something to talk about. what do you think about that, cautiously pessimistic the stock, there's nothing to be pessimistic about. >> jamie manages things well, and he will say things are okay and not great, but when you look at the earnings for jpmorgan, they perform and perform better than what people expect. you have to say what he says with a grain of salt, and he's saying it's not all champagne and roses, and if you can do how

they do, i want to own the stock. >> what if you believe every word he says and you think maybe a soft landing is a forgone conclusion, and inflation could be much higher for much longer than people think, you know, and transition away from qe and qt will have a more dramatic impact than up to this point. goldman is up 38 these are percentage gains bank of america, 31. wells, 41. citigroup, 41. is he telling us to lighten up our positions in these kinds of stocks >> well, if you were a trader, i think you could. no question about it i think you have an environment where certain things are improving as it relates to the banks, and certain things are decelerating as it relates to the consumer we talked about that you have somebody that runs the

best bank in the world net interest margins for jpmorgan they have to pay less for deposits than anybody else right? if the market were to get weaker, they will capture a market share like they have every single time it happens you are dealing with a different circumstance with this bank than maybe others >> joe >> i would agree with that that's the reason why i own jpmorgan, and i think it's going to go well above 225 we have significant exposure to the financial sector now we are at 23%. that's well beyond what the s&p 500 is now, it's not isolated to money center banks, and it's what we were talking about, it's in asset managers and insurance companies which have remarkable pricing power right now, and it's in the exchange itself, and we are starting to see slo-mo

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we want to talk about cyber security stocks because they have been ripping, and palo alto reports after the bell palo alto, joe, up 15%, and crowdstrike up 22. you own palo alto penally and in the joe t. >> correct there's a lot here that palo alto needs to recover from let's remember the words customer spending fatigue and what that did to the stock february 20th to february 30, stock went down 20%. you are speaking about a recovery but it's well below where it was before it reported earnings

3.3% billings growth is not exciting at all when last year you did 26%. so palo alto got the benefit of the doubt, because we think of them as a best in breed cyber security name and they absolutely are, but without question they need to grow the cloud software revenue, and the firewall network business is struggling right now this report, they don't get the benefit of the doubt in my opinion. this report, they have to step forward and they have to deliver something that is going to be getting the investor base excited once again, and have to tell us that billings growth is going to get back in double digit territory in 2025 through 2026 this is a very important report. >> you like crowdstrike better >> i like it better because it's performing better, sure. absolutely >> by the way, palo alto ceo is going to be on with kramer tonight on "mad money. you will hear from mr.arora

directly rob, you own fort net, which i think is the worst performing -- it is what it is i didn't make it up. >> but i didn't know you would bring it up. >> of course that's not my fault. it's yours you should not have owned it why is it such an underperformer can you tell me that >> concerns about the top line slowing in the near term, and ultimately we think it's one of the high quality cyber -- george, i am sorry, but i am good friends with george kurts, and i should own it for him and for me it's 40% up year to date it has always been a darling like we felt we were chasing we bought fort net because we thought we were buying it cheaper, and all of the themes

we saw in that space, we felt at the price it made sense with the way we own stocks, and year to date, crowd is up year to date and this one is up 7 when you have a premium valuation on any of these and see slowing in sales you have valuation compression, and that's what we have seen >> this is a great example of why cheap is not necessarily always good. look at the valuation of fortinet, and now look at the performance, and the cheapest stock is the one that is underperforming the most >> salesforce we are watching today, too, joe, because it was reiterated by goldman sachs, and they give a bullish preview and that's next week >> yeah, so buyback story, check the box really good. initiated the dividend, and checked the box good, and april

20th was a day where there was not a deal, and there was concerns surrounding salesforce potentially doing a deal and making a deal to go back and be the spending salesforce and we don't want that, we want salesforce to be a company focussing on it's capital and delivering the best generative ai platform. >> why does workday -- >> it budgets are beginning to have the same degree of cost consciousness that we are seeing with consumers themselves. that's why when you are looking at software right now, i think a lot of reports this week, not just workday but synopsis, it will be a strong read through what the i.t. budgets are looking to let's get to the headlines with pippa stevens >> and answering questions once

again, cohen in the trump hush-money trial they are senate banking committee chair, sherrod brown, called for biden to replace the fdic today the comments follow his testimony in congress last week. new york attorney general, law taerba james, is settling with crypto lender genesis for $2 billion that it will help her pay defrauded investors in new york that paid in the gemini program.

she claimed they misled investors. back to you. >> thank you up next, betting on the weight loss boom two new etfs this week, and bob tells you exactly what they are, next (traffic noises) (♪♪) the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked.

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we are back on the "halftime report." >> weight loss drugs are among the hottest investments on wall street and the eft industry is pounding on not one, but two eft weight loss etfs are coming, and that's coming out tomorrow, right? >> yeah. >> the numbers are amazing goldman sachs research, obesity treatment market could expand 16 times its current size, and $100 billion by 2030. that means a lot of companies are strcrambling to get into th business, and what is in the eft. it's actively managed, right >> yeah, it provides exposure to

the companies making glp 1 drugs or have drugs in different trial phases you will see large overweights relative to what you would find in a traditional index, like names like eli lilly and nor vex. these are game-changing drugs, and the traditional means of getting into them, it doesn't do justice to the exposure needed >> i think it has been slow launching these considering they have been out for over a year. there are 20 companies in the eft, and i will not go through all of them, but 40% for two companies, and novo is up and lilly is up, and how much room is there we seem to be coming a little bit after the first crest? >> yeah, like when we saw the ai wave, and people said it's an ai

bubble and it's over, and what is exciting is there's more companies coming, right? right now they are injectables, and there are companies working on oral therapeutics, and they are even more powerful >> we will talk about all of them coming up but you had a big hit last year, the big eft hit, mags, it came out of nowhere, and you will have a concentrated bet on china this time, and this consists of eight china, alibaba, jd.com -- why are you making a concentrated bet on china right now? i know the mags was a big hit last year. >> we know the economy has had struggles, but the lucky eight etfs tend to provide concentrated exposures to those companies moving the needle when

it comes to the chinese consumer and chinese technology more to come there >> when is this launching? >> we filed it on friday, so hopefully about 75 days. no specificity yet >> we will have more on the ground-breaking glp1 treatments coming up. we have todd that will update us on the move from the t plus o settlement scott, back to you >> bob, appreciate that. thank you, bob pisani still ahead. ahead. and we have ownership in (♪ aero space we will talk about that, next. (♪♪)

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♪ ♪ ♪ dow giving up 40 k we will keep our eye watching that the aerospace eft is climbing. we talked about the quote, unquote, rally at the top of the show and this is another area hitting an all-time high >> yeah, transdigm, airplanes are going back and getting refurbished and looked at more whether it's the windows or seats. their demand is through the roof, their backlog. rtx was a turn around with pratt whitney and the engines, and stock is still not expensive to

where it was, so i still like both stories >> you are in the stocks more for the aerospace than the defense, so to speak i mean, you like it not as much for the geopolitical -- i hear people saying who pick the stocks, look at what is happening in the world, for geopolitical reasons and i hearing is different from you. >> you get the option value, the icing with rtx the other defense stocks, some of them are overbought, so you have to wait for a pullback on them >> joe >> i am one of those people that looks at the world and says, look, we just went through the last 20 years where the geopolitical tensions were as calm as they could be in my lifetime, and now they are more intense, more strained and i think you have to have the

exposure boeing is 14% of the ita, so you get a little boeing, and to sarat's point, you get -- >> you get punished when boeing lays a big egg >> so far, the year to date it has been underperforming, i will give you that. over in the long-term, this is a stock that is reaching, i believe, an all-time new high. you criticize it's down to date, but being in the eft, it has been -- >> i am saying if you want to make it one of the benefits leveraged to boeing because it's a large part of the eft, you will pay the price >> yeah, but it's better than going and buying boeing out right. >> funny, scott, i think it was last year, both josh brown and i had ita as one of our top four

picks, and both bowing and lockied smoked us. it's up roughly half, and what you are saying about ita, it's even worse, it's 12% of the construction of that i think from a portfolio construction standpoint, you cannot own all of the same things having optionality to gent geopolitical tension, or the demand for air crafts in the economy is not a bad thing to have in a portfolio right sized. >> mike santoli will join us next with his midday word. we'll be right back. too often the ai community is seeing us as a minority, quiet, hard working and good student. that often means we are often forgotten. it took me years to find my voice, to advocate for myself in

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♪ ♪ senior markets commentator mike santoli joining us for his midday word. two things stand out to me, mike, i'm sure you, as well. nvidia back at 950 a couple of days ahead of the in be and now apple is above 190 191 1/2 and it's a technology kind of day. >> it is it is a little growthy some of the value sectors are backing off a little bit to me what it says is the market just continues to rotate around and stay supported as opposed to necessarily just pushing hard on a single theme that's carrying things so, you know, in general, record highs for the index is at a time when you have underlying

earnings also at a record high and forward estimates still rising volatility and credit spreads at mult multi-year lows which makes all of the sense in the world when you put things together when you're underpricing some kind of deviation from this magic soft landing scenario that we are now reembracing. we are getting overbought maybe in the indexes and we'll see if that matters or not if you have to fight your way through it, but for now, boring markets have been bullish markets and it's a quiet start to this week >> interesting that dimon is saying he's cautiously pessimistic on his stock hits another record high. >> it's what i always point out when jamie likes to come out and point out the potential big risks and of course, that's how he runs the bank is being ready for unexpected bad times and he's been rewarded for it. so why would he come out and be enthusiastic and saying all boats are going to be floated and you don't have to worry about prudence because the

economy's going to rip and the risks are low when his own stock has a massive premium because of that conservatism and leverage to all of the big themes because it is better than most of all of his businesses i feel like that's a perfect cocktail for him to continue to serve up >> i'll see you on "closing bell" as we take our viewers through the last hour and get your last word up nt, wexe're trading two big winners and two big losers in today's session. i'll tell you what they are next

♪ ♪ we will trade some winners and losers royal caribbean, record intra-day high today so take a look at that one, up near 5%. his and hers up 32% above 20 for the first time since february of 2021 the losers where i want to focus, rob, only because of the conversation that we've had of late and quite a bit of conversation about utilities and the ai bump, vistra is a loser today. you own this name. just talk me through that. so it's up 140%. >> yes in a short period of time. >> we actually added it on the show they're a competitive energy producer you talk about ai. you go tech, tech, tech,

utilities is what's been the ai trade. it's all about production. >> nobody had that on your bingo card that you'd be talking tech, tech, tech, utility for ai >> that's what it is it's the power associated with that and that's why it's done so well year to date so it's pulling back and no way we would trim it rid ght now. >> a few people had it on your bip bingo cards. >> you i'm in good company. >> final trades are next i'm in . >> final trades are next -so, what's the code? -it says 547.

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a couple of big interviews coming your way tomorrow on "the halftime report," michael arougheti and tony ressler we'll have an opportunity to speak to both of those gentlemen and we'll do it tomorrow 3:00 today we'll talk to her about the market courtney garcia, dan mayo and

dan ives ahead of palo alto. give me final trade. >> eagle materials. >> morgan stanley hit 100 on the way up. >> jen >> reits, good opportunities and it's not as scary as you think. >> exxon enterprises and it's in the ita and make sure you put it in a tight stock >> aol i'll see you in a couple of hours on "the closing bell. "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, scott and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans here's what's ahead today. the consumer is doing just fine on the low end one of them says it takes cuts off the table until at least december and the other says there's a case to be made to hike both are here to explain and we'll look at how to position as a result plus the black swan is here to talk ai, bitcoin, middle east turmoil. where is he seeing the biggest risks and how you can position to protection yourself and even to profi