give me final trade. >> eagle materials. >> morgan stanley hit 100 on the way up. >> jen >> reits, good opportunities and it's not as scary as you think. >> exxon enterprises and it's in the ita and make sure you put it in a tight stock >> aol i'll see you in a couple of hours on "the closing bell. "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, scott and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans here's what's ahead today. the consumer is doing just fine on the low end one of them says it takes cuts off the table until at least december and the other says there's a case to be made to hike both are here to explain and we'll look at how to position as a result plus the black swan is here to talk ai, bitcoin, middle east turmoil. where is he seeing the biggest risks and how you can position to protection yourself and even to profit from it and nassif

joins us live. the dominate the ev market is not all bad news for u.s. auto stocks and there's one name that may benefit from it. you're looking at the chart there and we'll reveal that coming up. dom chu with the numbers and it's all about nvidia these days, dom. >> it's helping us drive two of the major indices to record levels so far today. the market is mixed, but marginally so, you can see the dow is slightly flat and slightly lower in the session and i'll put a couple of stars out there today because earlier today the dow jones industrial average hit a record intraday high and the nasdaq composite also hit a record intraday high and the tech heavy index and the nasdaq at 16,818 is at session highs and i will point out the broader s&p 500 is one-third of 1% and 22 just about flat at the lows of the session and we came in less than woin point on the

basis of 5300 of getting a new record intraday and keep an eye on the record levels for the s&p, the dow and the nasdaq composite. two other places that we're seeing record highs in intraday trading have been in the commodity complex specifically with regard to copper futures and gold prices as well for gold futures and copper up one-half of 1% and comex gold up one-half of 1% and keep an eye on the gold miners, and ticker is etf and some of the bigger commodity etfs that have futures exposure to multiple type happens of commodities like the invesco optimum yield commodity fund also up .75% kelly mentioned nvidia, and it's arguably the most important stock in the entire market right now and certainly it will be this week because it does report earnings after wednesday's close and check this out it's up 2.75% and it's had a blistering run for sure and i'll

leave you with this nugget right now. currently the options market is at a plus or minus move. i'll show you, plus or minus 8% in the move for the stock after the earnings are released. over the last eight reporting quarters, it's up or down roughly 13%. so for right now, kelly, the markets are pricing in a little less volatility than normal for nvidia shares. we'll send things back over to you. >> a third of the earnings growth of the entire s&p will be tied up in nvidia. >> it will be a huge move. >> thank you very much, dom chu. the u.s. consumer survey showing a slight, but not super meaningful slowdown in spending. monthly household spending edged down from 5% in december still, that's well above pre-pandemic levels and the next guest shares the survey sentiment saying the consumer is on the low end and they differ slightly on the timeline of rate cuts and there's a case to be made for a rate cut instead this

year joining us is michael lansberg, and the b of a securities. of course with our very own cnbc chief economics reporter steve liesman. welcome to you all michael, you're the hawk here even though you're an investment guy and i'll call you that, why do you think we shouldn't rule out the possibility of a rate hike and it doesn't sound like you're that worried about it >> i think the idea, kelly, i think if powell didn't say we'd see cuts in '24 we wouldn't be seeing these discussions earnings growth is up 8% year over year in the s&p and over 20% and labor is strong and there are all-time highs in the equity markets there's not really a lack of animal spirit here, so i just don't really see why we need to cut rates to get more speculation in the market. i think the market is doing fine without it >> to your point, it's kind of a nice position to be in oh, the economy didn't crack

i guess the nicer position would be the economy doesn't crack, but inflation comes down more quickly and then they can cut and underpin further positive developments >> yeah. i just don't see that. i think what we're seeing is inflation has accelerated. core services are up over 5% and throw in shelter and it was up nearly 6 and if you just look at what dom talked about earlier and it's all come out in the prices with a 52-week all-time highs and copper, uranium, gold, silver, and i just don't see a slowdown here in terms of that, and when you look at china coming online and europe out of the recession, there's a lot of demand for natural resources and prices go higher >> you're buying those asset classes to benefit from higher inflation and rates you have stocks in energy, mining, materials and insurance crude oil, copper, gold and all names you're looking at. do you think we could have a cut in december. is that right? >> yes, i think that's correct

and the rational there would be that the mix of inflation hopefully looks more favorable by december with slower inflation and services perhaps offset by a little bit of a pickup in goods and the inflation and by that i mean less deflation in goods and going from say a negative 2%, 3% rate on core goods which we know isn't sustainable to say negative one but the key to the fed is services i would disagree a little bit with michael i don't think core inflation is accelerating and it is still lower than expected and elevated from the fed's perspective and you see evidence of that is being driven by demand which is why for now cuts are off the table. risks are calling for a delay, but for now we remain comfortable that services inflation will remain by december which is when they can cut. >> you are echoing michael here and you do know that it's at odds with many of the concerns

raised by the q1 earnings. do you think they're companies not executing well and what is the macro takeaway from that >> i think the macro takeaway is that the stock market is more skewed towards the good sector than the overall macro economy so there's a difference between macro and markets and if you look at the forms that have reported negative earnings, for example, some of them were food services and for sure, they were down 2.7% in a real basis in the first quarter and it is only 6% of consumer spending so it doesn't break the back of the consumer and there may be components of the consumer spending that are weak there always are and broadly, the consumer is holding up just fine and importantly it's want just that supply continues continue to ease, but also that demand seems to be holding up pretty well. >> steve, i'm going to throw a grab bag of observations at you and i know you can make sense of them as you always do, we have copper and gold rising together at a time when the dollar seems

like it's pretty strong because the fed might be more hawkish than the other global banks and if so, that's disinflationary for the u.s. and ultimately good for consumers and bad for consumers elsewhere and maybe it puts europe in a bad place can you make sense of all of this >> i would not think that the fed is going to make approximately see based on the exchange rate. the exchange rate helps at the margin, but doesn't determine prices if i'm trying to fight inflation i'd rather have a stronger currency, but of course, the united states is not that big of a foreign trader, as much as you might think. it doesn't really -- in fact, in some cases it could be helpful to have the strong currency because of what we import. so i wouldn't look there for the answer my response towhat michael was saying earlier, as a guy who likes to drive a boat. i can't drive a boat looking down at the water or looking behind me. i have to look in front of me, and my point would be relative

to that, and i have to get a forecast of which way i'm headed and what my speed is by any measure the fed is restrictive. it's hard to make an argument and it comes from a different way that michael does and i respect the way he's coming at your point of view >> the fed is not restrengthive relative to history and relative to the prior rate and looks at what's changed in the economy that middle a 5.38 or a fed funds rate is not somehow restraining the economy. i'm sort of onboard with where the fed is that if left to its own devices this current rate will over time restrain the economy sufficiently to bring down inflation. >> and what are the differences between the u.s. and european economies? it sounds like they are going to be first to cut and maybe they're doing so are they doing so for happy reasons like disinflation or for reasons like a slowing economy >> well, you make the call here, kelly. i'll tell you, the fed hiked

earlier and it lifted rates higher than the european central bank and it looks like the ecb will beat the fed to the rate cuts and it will happen as soon as june. america we will wait maybe until the fall ore longer. what happened? a couple of quick things here. weaker european growth you don't necessarily want that and that's created slack and that's created european inflation and it's created u.s. government stimulus and there's transition in europe and the u.s. there is the cpi rate. you can see it using the light thing right there. that's the story the better transmission is interesting, kelly maybe you and i can chat about this the other day and the story is that europe does its lending through banks. we have a whole bunch of non-bank lenders and the 30-year mortgages that have a lot of households immune from it which brings us back to our conversation and one reason why consumers are doing so well amid these higher rates is that a lot of them aren't having much of an impact when it comes to the

channel of the mortgage market. >> right or even benefitting and a lot of people making money on their cash for a while >> this is not stagflation and you're ruling that out for the rest of this year? >> yeah. this does not look like a stagflationary shock what you have seen as stagflationary shock is relatively weak demand, right? relatively weak spending driven by higher inflation. what you're seeing rid ght now s spending particularly on the services side has held up very, very well and the last two quarters of services has been very strong and that's been accompanied by strong inflation adjusted spending and elevated inflation and you put those two together and stagflation is a negative supply shop, like what you saw in 2022 and going back to the point of the fed which makes a policy redescription, because they're used to lean

against the level of inflation by keeping rates restricted and the point steve made is consistent that you're hearing from fed policymakers that approximately see is restrictive, right there may be disagreements on when you start cutting, but the longer they say that we believe the policy is restrictive and the longer that they stick to that line the more inertia there is about potentially hiking again and the more comfortable markets will feel about paring off that tail risk of additional -- >> and if the market comes around they'll continue to tighten a little bit for the fed. michael, i'll give you the last word here because as you mentioned you are in asset classes that would benefit from higher inflation and higher rates. how long do you stay in the trade? >> i think you'll stay in the trade until it doesn't work. what happened is most of wall street are under allocated to commodities and under allocated to mining. we know, obviously, there's a big company reporting earnings on wednesday and that's all the talk you can make a good amount of money and commodities and this year have outperformed the s&p

500 and you can have that in your portfolio and insurance stocks have done quite well and it doesn't mean you have to abandon growth and you can allocate to other places that are going to do well, if, in fact, inflation does continue to move higher as the last three months and having a portion of your portfolio makes sense given the fact that it is performing and it's a contrarian play at this point >> thank you all for your time >> michael lansburg and our own steve liesman. let's pivot about tech satya nadella announcing a new brand of co-pilots ahead of a key developer's conference tomorrow let's get to steve kovac tomorrow steve? >> kelly, you nailed it. ceo satya nadella rereelvealingt they call co-pilot pcs and we've been talking for much of the year and bavesically claiming ta these pcs will spur the big upgrade of pcs and they expect

to sell 50 million aipcs across different manufacturers throughout the year and just some new additions here. this is going to obviously focus around the co-pilot assistant. these computers will be made by a variety of manufacturers and not just microsoft, but we're expecting to hear from hp, dell and so forth and also a big part of this is going to be open ai you might remember ai released its new model gpt 40 and that's the one that lets you have a natural conversation and they give an interesting demo when they had a chat about the minecraft game and chatgpt giving tips for the game and just one example of how they see ai playing into the device and that was also a big question going into this event. the hardware is easy to understand, kelly, that you can make these pcs as powerf as you want, but if it doesn't have

compelling software and what these pcs can do on the ai front that will spur these upgrades. >> it's fascinating you and i grew up at the same time with the ads that were so emblematic and maybe you can remind me, are we at an inflexion point when microsoft has the cooler gadgets? not in the phone category, but at least on the laptop front >> on the computer, category, that's what they're trying to show off here. of course, we're going to hear apple's take on this in a couple of weeks in the developer's conference and today what they're talking about is yes, they're claiming these computers are better and faster than the macbook air that came out a couple of months ago they're claiming better performance gains and the macbooks just don't have those ai features that they're showing off today with co-pilot and that doesn't mean it's not coming soon and again, expect that to come up in a couple of weeks, but for now, they're saying we're cooler and they have the

ai features and this is the only way you can experience open ai natively on a pc and things like that, and for sure, they're making a big bet >> do you have to get one of these new pcs. ai is fundamentally software and do you need hardware to get the most benefit or for the average person to take it to the next level? >> that is going to be one of my very first question. i'm chatting with yousuf mehdi you have these new features, but what about the tens of hundreds of others that are still running windows 11 and using co-pilot. does that mean they miss out when will the features come to them or will you spend a thousand bucks on a new pc that is the question, kelly. >> we'll see you, thanks so much we appreciate it >> steve kovac >> thanks. in the meantime, tesla is up 2% after another round of price

cuts in europe and this as cheap chinese autos are continuing to gain global market share my next guest says china's rise isn't all bad news for u.s. auto stocks and there's one name that could benefit from it. we'll talk about that next black swan author on the markets, on the economy and ai and where he sees the biggest ricks emerging he joins us live in studio ahead. stay with us on "the exchange. this is "the exchange" on cnbc and ask for something for memory, i recommend prevagen. number one, because it's effective. does not require a prescription. and i've been taking it quite a while myself and i know it works. and i love it when the customers come back in and tell me, "david, that really works so good for me." makes my day. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription.

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welcome back look at shares of tesla down 1.5% reuters reporting the company is offering discounts to some european leasing companies, just the latest price cut from the ev maker that cut prices as recently as last month in a number of major markets including the u.s., china and germany as they fight to hold on to market share, but my next guest says tesla's pain could at least be one auto supplier's gain joining me now is colin langan at wells fargo good to see you again. welcome. >> thanks for having me on. >> so there's a good story to tell about borg warner let's just cut to the chase. what is it >> sure. we like borg warner for numerous reasons. we did a deep dive in the ev risk and they're one of the companies that stands to benefit about 70% of business in china is with the locals and we believe that those are not only going to continue to gain share

within china we see a big risk of the chinese locals locals expanding and that compares to global demand of 90 million unit the chinese have a strong advantage and not really in the labor cost, the hourly labor cost and what people don't fully appreciate is they're in the rnd and they're able to turn vehicles out in two to three years and developed market automakers and that's a huge advantage from cost and a pricing standpoint >> that flies in the face of those who would insist these tariffs are because china is dumping evs and in some markets they have to prove that in order to levy those in the u.s here in the u.s. they can prove it effectively and do whatever policymakers want. >> well, i think when i look at the china ev risk around the world and there is a risk of the domestics in china continuing to lose share they lost about 14% market share since 2020 i think that trajectory continues and gm, ford,

stellantis are all global companies. so there's risk in south america, particularly, where i think china is gaining footing and byd is opening a plant in mexico and brazil. if you go to europe which is a market that does not have a lot of protections currently, you're talking they'll build a plant hungry and china is now the biggest auto exporter in the world. >> it's an area that, of course, completely threatens countries like germany and like the u.s. and we've had these critically important auto manufacturing businesses and thank god for tesla, but it sounds like not price competitive or competitive in other ways. so for u.s. investors, what do they do with the big automakers? do they have to stay on the sidelines while this wave of innovation plays out >> i mean, i have underweight ratings on all of the detroit 3 and tesla. i think it's a tough time to be involved with the automakers and you have pricing pressure and ev pressures and you're forced to

ramp due to regulations and as you go to the midterm, the china emergence is a big risk. byd went from 400,000 units three years ago and it's supposed to sell 3.7 units and it's a couple hundred thousand away from ford which is pretty remarkable and it shows how quickly these companies are catching up to the traditional automakers >> is there anything traditional automakers can do at this point? >> one of the fundamental realities is they have to think about rnd and how quick thee t they invest in their vehicles and they'll have to think about it around the world getting products to market faster on a faster development cycle which is a fundamentally different way from where they historically thought. >> yeah. it's kind of a grim prognosis, honestly you do worry about tesla and the stock price reflects that as they struggle to keep up let's talk about the winners that you identify and we talked about borg warner and are there any others just how much upside could they

have >>. >> i mean, for borg, china is one of the main tailwinds we see for borg-warner. they have 15% of sales with electric vehicles and they'll see a big boom in their e power train business and they are very well positioned and they'll be a top three to five supplier in some of the key growth areas and they're trading at a discount to the historic multiples and they're at a good valuation and they benefit from the hybrid theme and they have a strong balance sheet where they continue to have buybacks and i see significant upside in the stock and it's our top pick in the space. >> i'm like a dog with a bone and i can't let this go. my final question is is there something more that policymakers could do the biden administration is trying to push the ev transition to push the automakers in that direction and china is leapfrogging them and this will require massive capital and st still may not be economical as ittis faces rivals granted those

are american based. >> is there anything we can do >> i think it's a big challenge. i think what we have to realize is that china has started ten years ago and we're putting policies in place and that's if we have done all of the work and the supply chain is not ready in the developed markets and what i think you need to do is put in a regulatory framework that's easier and ease back on the requirements for electric vehicles and give them more time to put in the grassroots framework which is one of the fundamental issues that make it difficult for the traditional automakers if you give them that time there's plenty of room for them to catch up. >> interesting for them to mach more competitive evs >> yep >> interesting colin, thanks so much. we appreciate it thanks for your time >> thank you. let's take a quick break the sudden death of iran's president is pushing that country into an uncertain state. we'll discuss who and what could

come next and from pandemic darlings we'll talk about lee ao,pattonlt wroozoom and macy's "earnings exchange" is coming up next

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>> let's get to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. >> thank you very much welcome, everybody, to "the exchange." president biden spoke out on the international criminal court prosecutors' decision to seek warrants against israel prime minister benjamin netanyahu calling it outrageous in a statement. biden says israel was not equal to hamas the icc prosecutor said both leaders bore criminal responsibilities for war crimes amid the israel-hamas war in gaza those leaders being netanyahu on the israel side and the leader of hamas the trump hush money trial on break for lunch i think they may just now be back the judge ruled on the admission of evidence of a photo of donald trump and keith shiller. the judged he believed the photo was relevant, but was going to think about hearsay.

and a video link between new york city and dublin, ireland, that is part of a public art exhibition called the portal is back up after it was shut down last week because of inappropriate behavior exhibit organizers say they installed more fencing on the new york side and have taken a step to prevent people from stepping on the sculpture and holding it up to their phones for the camera lens. new yorkers engaging in inappropriate conduct. it's a shocking news flash there, kelly. >> of course, they are what did they think was going to happen >> tyler mathisen. coming up, investors may be feeling positive, but our next guest lives for the risks. he's made a career and a fortune hedging against risks and sees plenty of them out there we'll speak to the author nassim taleb on what he thinks next when "the exchange" returns. don't go anywhere. representation for asian

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welcome back to the exchange we're keeping an eye on oil prices today as the market digests the latest middle east drama. the iranian president ebrahim raisi has been killed in a helicopter crash along with the foreign minister he was a hard line conservative politician who was elected in 2021 and was seen as a contender to succeed supreme leader ayatollah khamenei the elections have to be held within 50 days and they come at a time turmoil in the country, and across the region and someone who has studied the country quite closely. michael, it's great to have you here welcome. what's your first reaction and as you've had a chance to find out more about this, what do you

think this is all about here >> well, i think this is a tragic accident. perhaps the iranian pilot was pressured by president raisi to go forward in the fog when he shouldn't have what i find most interesting is that even in raisi's hometown people are celebrating his death. make no mistake, this regime has no more legitimacy and if people are celebrating the death of raisi imagine when 85-year-old supreme leader ali khamenei dies. >> he's been in for 30-some-odd years. we've seen the speculating at this point if he appoints his son and that could delegitimize the regime of military rule or regime change, but is something internal likely or not at this point? it seems unlikely? >> well, with regardto the president you're going to

have -- you have a temporary president already appointed who is the vice president. he's just a place holder moh mohammad mokhtar, and the speaker of the parliament. he used to be the head of the islamic revolutionary guard corps and for years he was mayor of tehran. the reason i think he might ascend to the presidency is he's a safe choice. he's a hard liner like raisi was, but he's not going to offend anyone who is trying to -- trying to rise to be the supreme leader because as a military man rather than a clerk he can't take that final step. i suspect we'll see the son of the current supreme leader keep his powder dry until the future succession to his father >> the fact that the succession might occur in the coming years after the events in israel means

what exactly is this an opportunity for iranians to express their discontent and press for a different kind of change is it popular? i'm curious what the sort of status is with much of the public at this point contrary to the regime >> i used to live in the islamic republic of iran and they called me son of the great satan. most have no animus toward israel everyone knows someone who has been killed in an arab country, but no one knows of anyone that has been killed in a war with iran and yet the iran-iraq war killeded a half million iranians so there is real animus toward arab countries more so than israel that said, it's the guys with the guns that control things, but you did say that khamenei has been in power for 35 years in that time he's amassed more than $100 billion, if you have

one succession every 35 years you'll have people coming out of the woodwork with knives out figuring, you know, this is the last best chance, maybe we can win the lottery and we have the mack yafelan maneuvers, and what happens now will only put this on overdrive and by the way, because of this background maneuvering to succeed the cancer-stricken partially paralyzed supreme leader and this is one of the reasons why a number of iranians suspect more than israel that perhaps khamenei's own son had something to do with this because the president who died in the so-called hard landing was his chief competitor the one wild card we should keep an eye out for, nothing said the supreme leader of iran needs to be a single person and you could have a council of leadership and that's where iran is going >> it seeps like the biggest competitive threat to iran was

the opening up of ties between israel and saudi arabia, if they did become encircled in the middle east. now that maybe that seems less likely after the events of october 7th, does this mean this is a moment for iran to loosen sanctions and all of the rest of it where do they stand competitively in terms of the geopolitical heft at this point. >> you know, iran feels like it's been on the upswing and they have the so-called axis of resistance and they're the predominant power not only in lebanon and iraq, but also in yemen. saudi arabia's always played a double game here, but you know, even if israel doesn't have formal relations for saudi arabia those two countries have been cooperating for the better part of 15 years so this really is nothing new the big question in the region is what happens when the supreme leader of iran dies? so what we have now with the helicopter crash that killed the president, it's a dry run to help us look into the crystal ball >> indeed.

michael, thank you for helping us do so michael rubin with aei iran is one of the global flash points they're navigating this year my next guest has made a career of mitigating risk and has hedged against catastrophes and here is nassim nicholas taleb author of "black swan" with universal investments. welcome. >> hi. hello. >> it's been about a year and the markets, the economy have held up much better than most thought. >> the whole point -- the whole idea in life is to avoid discussions about what's going to happen nat markets and to have strategies that are completely impervious to bull, bear and -- >> do well if the market does well >> exactly and there's something quite central that even when you see a crisis coming you have no certainty as to how the market -- you may have a

certainty as far as the crisis like we know we'll have debt crisis, but we have no idea what the stock market will do if that happened remember covid, okay the whole idea is to be impervious to any scenario, and that's what we're about. that's what i've been talking about and people understand now. do you think that's been borne out, in other words, universal strategy is not just the profit from market collapse if the market is up you are also up. >> the whole idea for us is to take portfolio and make it solid in the sense just like this building has insurance, okay so this building has also fire exits and stuff like that just to make it robust. so regardless, so it collapses and you outperform and overall in the lumber and you outperform because other mitigation strategies typically are

speculative at best and are fragile and ours is not. we try to find the most solid approach which is -- our brand from other hedging and our brand is still hedging. >> before we get into the market and move away from what we were hearing about in the middle east and someone hears in the region itself, do you have thoughts about another the politics or what investors should or shouldn't be worrying about? >> i would say to the investor, to basically ignore what's going on in the middle east and to an individual to worry or visually, as the individual is one thing because again, the connection between the markets and these events is completely unpredictable, even more unpredictable than the events themselves >> right do you have any thoughts as a person about it? >> here it goes, as a person, what just happened now with the helicopter crash --

>> everything that's happened since october, really. >> i think it was -- people think that things started in october. in fact, it's context and you have to look at when you have a situation that's unresolved. you are pushing -- it's like putting novocain on it you have to resolve the situation. you can't wait for it to go away they're not going to go away and there is a problem there, but again, to say that the connection between these problems and the markets -- >> understood. >> completely unconnected. even local markets >> right right. >> for the markets more broadly then, this is the environment if you look at the performance, crypto has done well and the stocks -- and the commodities have done well and commodities are talking the abb and everything, but bonds and bond are sitting it out asknd correlations have changed. the biggest problem we have is when people start hedging based on correlation and the

strategies that has 60/40 or even worse leverage and 160 and the stocks and bonds and all of that i don't know if it's correlations, but we noticed that correlation and finance is a random variable. things can be positively correlated and flip negatively correlated and that was the capital management that collapsed in '98 and anything that was positively correlated and the junk bonds and treasury bonds and they were, you know, correlated, so it looks like a hedge and then sure enough, what they owned went down and what they flipped we had the situation in stock bonds where you have a positive correlation unexpectedly and

unexpectedly, so basically if you're engaged in a hedge you need to know what the correlation will be. it cannot be a speculative variable it is no longer a hedge. >> right so correlation from a historical correlation is unknowable as a predictor. >> exactly if you run historical correlation backwards, in other words, you stand in 1980 and try to predict correlation between '80 and until 1980 it's the same thing. you run it over time if you use your method and apply it historically, yet people talk about 60/40. people talk about mitigation and they risk mitigation is one thing and -- and the diversification in a portfolio is another thing as we see on the table here. it's completely different. the situation is completely different. we have on top -- >> the second line -- or the third line, sorry. >> the third line, exactly, and these are very, very scenario

dependent based on correlation >> do you think -- >> the one up top is the very definition of the one up top is to be robust in allen viern am in other words, you can run history where the one on the bottom does well or the history does poorly. you don't need any opinion about anything. >> right you don't worry about the market being at 40,000 or anything like that >> 40,000 and basically that strategy isn't variant and we may hav m may have a strong opinion about the market and it is so robust >> is ai the next black swan >> first of all, here again, as a statistician, i tell you that there's nothing qualitatively new about what we call ai. robotics, we have the thermostat the thing is it just got tense here and there was more computer thrown at it and more data is it -- in what area?

there are areas that would definitely benefit from it for example, if you want to write an essay on a subject you barely know you may need to manage and it won't fool the expert >> there are a lot of uses for ai, and translation, for example, which will help translators become more efficient. so we may have some gains from it, but the expectation is monstrous. both positive and negative negative, they're taking over the world and a robot cannot climb stairs yet when it climbs stairs we'll talk about it taking over the world and the positive, things will solve the problem. again, i'd like to be in a situation where regardless of what you think, a ii may change the world, fine, but the investment strategy should be invariant to that. completely insulated from these kind of opinions >> is that what people are saying that ai can solve the debt crisis? >> a lot of people think it

would bring monstrous productivity and like a gambler that thinks he may be able to come back and recover the losses back i doubt it, but nevertheless, it's a possibility, okay, and i don't want to depend on my opinion, in my investment strategy. >> absolutely. do you think financial mark markets, last question, do you think they're more resilient than five or ten years ago >> i would say they're acting more and more divorced from the economies. >> really? >> that's the globalization. they don't depend on a specific economy. they depend more on a global economy. so, for example, you may think the dollar may be under threat, but it may not harm u.s. companies. although the interest rates are usually a real thing and leverage is a real thing everyone has leverage now and some grow faster than others and

nevertheless, stocks are becoming sort of invariant to everything >> can that last is that a technological development? >> it is mostly because they may have a problem of their own. the world can be doing great and the stock market collapse. it's resilient they're divorced from a lot of things and they depend on their own dynamics >> interesting >> the globalization, they don't depend on dynamics of one country, so, but again, you have a rosy environment and people may look at the portfolio and say oh, what happened which is exactly why you need to be robust more than ever. >> nassim nicholas taleb, thank you very much for your time today. we appreciate it. >> thank you thank you for inviting me. it's the 17th year i come to the studio. >> thank you very much for doing so keeping the streak alive distinguished adviser at u

universa investment. we'll have more on the other side of this break clem's not . i'm tasting it- or a night person. or a... people person. but he is an “i can solve this in 4 different ways” person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him. i'm short but i'm... i'm confident. you know? let our expertise round out yours.

♪ (alarm sound) ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

her uncle's unhappy. fund i i'm sensing antives, underlying issue.

it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

welcome back. lots of earnings to get through. we're going to trade palo alto, zoom, and macy's with today's exchange. jeff, welcome. palo alto. i mean, this stock is up 68% over the past year, even though they lowered revenue guidance in february. what do you do with the stock? the whole sector's been on fire? >> i own palo alto. i want to be a buyer here, kelly. you have to remember, that last earnings report, it dropped 30%. when you compare it to crowd sight, momentum has been chasing crowd psych. crowd psych was down 50% in 2022. palo alto continues to ramp up. >> the next two, let's start zoom video. you like that stock here? >> well, i like it, but let's

be very cautious here. it is 88% off its all-time high. from a user perspective, i prefer this to microsoft teams. i think you have the opportunity to be a buyer, but not in trade. zoom may actually be a takeover target. >> what about macy's? poor macy's? >> poor macy's, and a $4 million market cap. at the end of the day, i think it moves back up to $25. but there are better choices. i think you want to own nordstrom, and set up. on a 10 year timeline, this stock is down 10%. be quick, be nimble, just like jack. >> i actually have a hedge on, i think it's going to retest at 850 level. t i budo have nvidia. >> that does it for us. "power lunch" is next. i'll join tyler after the break.

l goals and look forward to a more confident future. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected.

welcome to "power lunch," everybody. alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathiesen. glad you can join us this monday. the dow closing lower, is 40k, the sign of the top or just another bit of momentum for the rally. the nasdaq hitting a new