options, primed for an 8.5% to 9% swing according to trade alert. this would be a market cap of $200 billion swing. that's larger than the market cap of 90% of the s&p 500 companies. >> you know what else swings with it? besides semis. >> that's going to do it for us at "overtime." >> “fast money” starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. housing headaches. the staggering new stat on home affordability, and what it might mean for home builders even as mortgage rates are expected to pull back. plus, a real lulu lemon. share office the one-time darling at their lowest in over a year and down more than 35% from an all-time high hit less than six months ago. can the stock find its then or has it stretched past its limit? and later, eli lilly hits a record high, and we are counting down to what might be the

biggest earnings report this quarter. what is at stake when nvidia delivers results tomorrow? i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerfinerma steve grasso, and guy adami. and we begin with a staggering result. 103 million americans cannot afford a newly built home. that's 30 million plus since 2021. we just got results from toll brothers, which beat earnings andsales estimates and raised full-year delivery guidance. that stock is higher by a percent. for more on both these stories, let's bring in diana olick. first, that pop in toll. >> yeah, toll did really well, beat expectations, but i have to say, toll brothers are not emergency dependent. in fact, they've said that 25% of toll buyers buy in all cash, so, even though mortgage rates went up, you didn't see the effect that you may see on some

of the other home builders. but you were talking about affordability. let's get to that. when you combine higher home prices with higher mortgage rates, the sum total is a whole lot of pain for potential home buyers, especially those who want to buy new construction. so, home prices overall nationally are 46% higher than they were at the start of the pandemic in 2020. the average right on the 30-year fixed is still stubbornly over 7% after hitting a record low of 2.76% at the start of 2021. now, as a result, nearly 67 million american households can't afford a $250,000 home today. they just wouldn't qualify for the mortgage. a whopping 103 million can't afford the nation's median priced newly built home, which is about $496,000, according to the nahb. that is 82% of american households. if you were to raise that price by just $1,000, and additional 106,000 buyers would be priced out. if you compare that back to the same metric in 2021, when rates were at record lows and home

prices were lower, that 103 million dropped to 75 million households unable to afford a new home. so, nearly 30 million potential buyers have been priced out in three years. the home builders have been buying down mortgage rates in order to get more buyers in the door, but that's eating into their margins. and we did hear from ceo doug yearley last quarter that they're not answering to any buyers who want buydowns. they just want some of the added bonuses going into the fixins in the toll brothers house. >> diana, in terms of the rate at which more homes would come onto the market from the existing home segment, what rate is that in general? is that 5%, 6%? how do we view that? >> okay, so, the total amount of homes on the market right now is about 40% higher compared to last year. but -- but still very low. and the rate of new listings is actually coming down. so, we saw this kind of surge going into spring of more homes coming onto the market, and they just sat. why did they sit?

they're too expensive and nobody can afford them. but we're not getting more listings now. part of that is that rate lock-in. when you have 2.75%, why would you sell? >> but in terms of that -- do people think 6% is going to move a lot of homes? we did see rates come down, i think in the first quarter, the second quarter, that area, did we see more velocity in the market at that time? >> we did. at the beginning of this year, when rates were around 6.5%, we saw an early surge. we thought the spring market was starting in january, because people were really coming in. the trouble was, there wasn't a lot on the market to buy. then, all the supply came into the market in march and april, but that's when rates started shooting up again. so, now a lot of that is now sitting. >> diana, thank you. i guess the question for us here tonight is, what do you do with the home builder trade? we're just off of highs in the sector, and so, are we, you know, if we're looking at a fed that's going to cut rates, that's probably the next move here at some point in time, is

the best behind the home builders? are we sort of in a goldilocks period? >> the last six months or so, i am sort of scratching my head. people talk about valuation, they've been compelling. i don't know if valuation matters in this space. i understand that interest rates matter. the thing that's going to matter most is going to be the unemployment rate. a lot of these revisions start to make their way in. it's a supply side thing, but whatever -- people are going to move when they start losing jobs. counter intuitivety, i mean, this is going to sound crazy. the best thing for the supply side is a spike in the unemployment rate. >> i agree with that. the most important thing is a job, but i also think the question you asked diana, if we start to cut rates, i think people will start to nibble, and maybe take out a mortgage and then they can always refinance. but they have to see -- they have to be sure that those rates have topped out and that they are coming in.

toll brothers has outperformed. so, if you look at dhi, they're speck builders. that was great during the pandemic. not so much now. i would stay back from the trade. >> yeah, i think it's a combination of the home builders are more profitable, even when they are picking up some of the margins. i wonder if the wealth effect and stock markets at all-time highs and essentially household balance sheets never being better is also creating a little bit more of a frenzy. a lot of these folks who are cash buyers, doesn't really matter. you just lift it off the top. but i also do think that for those people that are out there in terms of going through a mortgage process, if that's easier or harder, the dynamic here, i think, it is helping people. they had better balance sheets. if you see any deterioration in the stock market, and ultimately in where we've seen housing prices, i think it's going to be self-feeding. i think a lot of these loans that no one is going to walk away from have a shelf life. people maybe lock into 30 years, good for you, that's probably for too long of an outlook for

this show. but if you think about ten ones and five ones, five ones are pretty much toast. if you think about the environment where the consumer hasn't really begun to weaken, because the job market hasn't begun to weaken, that's going to happen, too. how much? we're awful trying to handicap that. >> that's a really important point. what's the -- what's the life left on those loans, do people wait until the very end? maybe not quite the very end. but it's interesting, you know in the energy markets, the cure for higher oil prices ishigher oil prices. that is not the cure here. that hasn't been helping. it's -- you know, it's such an odd scenario, where you have so much locked up inventory that just will not hit the market, because people can't afford to leave their houses, but i've been thinking for awhile, the home builders had had enough of a run, it wasn't -- but i mean, these numbers that came out tonight, they are very good. >> i can just tell you that i haven't liked them. i've been wrong on this for six to nine months. my view is, when you don't have any velocity of trading, prices

have to come down. i still think that. that's been the wrong -- >> the dynamic is that the home prices -- the home values have not come in. >> right. in relationship to the mortgage -- usually when rates go higher, home prices have to come down and that has not been happening. but that's why we asked diana, if we know that the next move for the fed is going to be a rate cut, maybe the end of the year, beginning of next year, when do we start looking ahead to believe that there's going to be more velocity, especially on the existing home side, particularly when you factor in a five one or ten one arm and people have to do something. they're going to be paying up -- >> and there's household formation that is happening. >> yeah. and people do have to move at some point. so, do you think ahead to that point, maybe six months out, seven months out, when that velocity starts happening once again, i mean, diana mentioned 6 1/2, beginning of the year, there were homes being sold. >> i feel like the stocks are discounted. they're trading as if that's going to happen. at least that's the moves that they've seen.

so -- but i totally get it. what's interesting, i think, is the fact -- look at home depot and lowe's. effectively the same chart. lowe's traded a little bit bitter. they both made their all-time highs in december 2021, which actually made sense at the time. if you think about what was going on. those stocks have not traded well now for the better part of three years on what's been a very good broader market. so, i think there's a tell there in terms of, everybody that needed to spend money, they basically did it. now there's sort of this sideways action, and again, i'll come back to the unemployment rate. if things stay here, this is just going to continue to sort of go sideways. if the unemployment rate moves higher, which is probably going to mean that's what -- that will force the fed to move, that will get some inventory, i think, into the system. >> all right, let's talk markets now, with less than 24 hours until nvidia reports earnings, an investor known for the big short sees opportunities in the entire a.i. space. steve iseman is with us. great to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> looking sharp today, too.

>> real -- take a second. >> it's true. >> all right. let's just compliment my wife. she dresses me. let's move on. >> nicely done. >> on her game. >> unbelievable. >> i was going to comment on steve's mood, which is generally good. so, you are listening to our conversation, how do you feel -- curious, how do you feel about the housing trade, if you are a believer that the economy is in good shape, the consumer is in pretty good shape? >> the problem with the housing market is, you know, people are stuck in their homes because they have 3% mortgages, and they have jobs. so, somebody's going to get a 7.5% mortgage to have the same monthly payment as the person with a 3% mortgage. the housing price has to get cut in half. somebody with a job going to sell their house and cut in half? no. so, existing home sales are very weak. new home sales take share. and that's been the housing market for the last two years or so. i don't see it changing at all. >> okay. you are optimistic about a.i.,

and we often talk about how apple is perceived as sort of the laggard in a.i. you think that there's -- >> i think apple is the hidden a.i. play, not exactly today, but will be, because everybody's focused on the chips and everybody's focused on the cloud, but at the end of the day, when there will be apps, and i have no idea when that's going to be, but when there will be apps that the consumer can use, they're going to want to use it on their phone. i have a new iphone, and when i know when the apps come on, i'll need a new phone and ipad and laptop. so, when the apps show up, the biggest probably beneficiary is going to be apple, because they're going to have a refresh of everything they sell. >> does that same sort of, you know, trade happen with microsoft, who just unveiled its sort of hardware lineup that is a.i.-equipped? >> partially, i mean, that's going to happen. but i don't know how much apple -- i mean, you're going to need to see people start to buy

their laptops and it's going to be more than just microsoft doing what they're doing. the apps haven't come yet. when they will, i have no idea when, but that's when the refresh cycle is going to take off. >> so, expanding on the a.i. discussion, last time you were here, you talked about nvidia. i think you said you had never seen an executive as confident as jensen huang. >> happier than me. >> quite a thing. but do you see -- that's obviously not the hidden one, it is the most obvious one, but is that one that you still feel comfortable holding? >> i mean, look, right now, the easiest way to play a.i. is nvidia, amd, a few other chip players, and then anybody who is in the cloud or with a massive data base. beyond that, there's apple, which i just mentioned, and after that, it's not clear, because so much of what's going to happen is unknown. i -- you know, there's no way to know at this point. >> steve, to change gears just a little bit, we'd be remiss not

to ask you your view on the consumer, if you see weakening. as someone that's played that, and that manifestation in the past was through the banks, someone that's so successful for having made a call, so many people are trying to make that same call over the last year and a half, and on some level, it's actually even more impressive that you kind of have been the other way. the inclination for many investors, this was just a time bomb waiting to blow up. what's the latest update from the front? >> there's no time bomb. i mean, the -- on the credit side, credit quality is fine. credit card delinquencies are starting to come down. chargeoffs are kind of sticky, but they're at low levels. in terms of the health of the consumer, the upper end consumer is in great shape. the lower end consumer's having trouble with inflation, and it's showing up in their spending. and the middle consumer is kind of treading water. it's kind of the way it's been for a very long time. so, i just don't see the consumer's impact -- it impacts

certain sub sectors, but there's not an issue for the overall economy. >> there's that scene in "when harry met sally," i'll have what she's having. look at him. happy steve. it's fantastic. congratulations on the transformation. >> thank you. >> this is not a political show, and we're not getting into politics, however, you have a very strong view about this election coming up. >> i do. >> what does it mean for the markets if you're right? >> my call is that -- with as much certainty as i can have, i think trump wins every single swing state and becomes president. and i don't think that has much implications for the market at all. >> really? >> i mean, it will have implications for certain sub sectors, there will be more tariffs that will impact certain sub sectors. >> do you think it's already effecting the market? >> not at all. i mean, the way i think this is going to play out, in august, when the democratic convention convenes in chicago, ironically, all the protesters from the campuses are going to convene in

chicago and they'll burn the israeli flag and burn the american flag and scream their heads off and the whole country is going to watch and the country is going to be aghast and at that point, everybody will understand the election is over. >> so, in -- you know, when you're thinking about policies of a president biden versus a president trump again, you don't think that china trade wars will be any worse under trump versus biden? >> i mean, there will be a little bit worse, but think of it this way, trump created the solar tariffs, and biden reaffirmed them. so, are they going to make the solar tariffs os even bigger? maybe. does that have a big impact on the overall economy? i don't think so. >> so, no -- in terms of inflation, doesn't move the needle? my instincts would suggest that a trump presidency would be inflationary. not good or bad, just inflationary. >> i mean, on the margin, maybe slightly. but it -- you'd be reading tea leaves to see it.

>> why would it be inflationary? >> well, the protectionist stuff that we talk about for awhile. my sense is there will be tax cuts, which are by definition -- all those different things would be inflationary. but again, steve says maybe on the margins. we'll see. >> so, one other thing you talked about last time you were here was the infrastructure trade, that you were very bullish on. >> nothing's changed. it's the same. i mean -- >> valuation -- >> on a trump presidency, you know,margins, some sectors might do better than others, maybe some of the gas plays come back, but overall -- >> should copper be over five bucks a pound? >> i don't do precious metals. >> but it's infrastructure. >> there's a whole list of things i don't do, and that's one of them. >> he's got a lane. >> all right. >> so, if there's really no -- basically, you're saying for the markets, it does not make a difference if president biden or president trump is in office, which seems really counterintuitive. >> why? >> because they're completely different candidates.

>> but think about the big policies they both have. i mean, is trump going to -- is trump going to get rid of the i.r.a. or the iij? but you need 60 votes in the senate to do it. nobody's going to have that. so, it's going to stay the same. >> so, this is actually a great scenario for the markets? >> certainty. in either case. >> certainly, because -- >> i don't know if it's a great case for the markets, i'm just making an election call. >> no, but it's a fascinating call. how do you think things play out on campuses, you've been vocal when it comes to our alma mater, university of pennsylvania. >> on that, i'm extremely pessimistic. >> okay. >> and the reason why is because it goes far beyond just protests. i remember when i was at penn, i had a professor who taught intellectual history. i took him price. and he would teach a book a week and teach it from the perspective of the author. i didn't know that this guy was a conservative until i knew him for two years. if you go through the penn

course catalog or the harvard course catalog or the columbia course catalog and you read the descriptions of the courses in the humanities that they're teaching, i think there's only one conclusion you can reach, which is, these kids aren't being taught, they're being indoctrinated. so, ask yourself, what would it take to move these universities back to what they once were? well, you have to expel all the students that are to testing, every single professor who is protesting needs to be fired. every tenured professor who is protesting, you can't fire them, but you have to let them teach. and you have to go through the course catalog and just change the courses to be -- to teaching as a posed to indoctrination. now, do i think -- what's the probability of that happening? it's not going to happen, because the people who administer these schools believe in this stuff. they believe in this yidology. why are they going to do any of this? they're not. and in a sense, they're really on the side of the protesters. they just don't like the publicity. >> you've taken your name off of

a scholarship? >> i did that already. certainly not going back on. >> right. we have to leave it there. steve, great to see you, get your perspective on everything. steve eisman. i don't know if you want to talk trades or upenn, you are certainly active there. >> yeah, i guess i would rather talk trades, but -- no, i -- i like the infrastructure trade. i get such a kick out of happy steve, you know? >> novel, right? >> well, now it's sort of been a year or two or -- >> happiness. >> yeah. i'm jewish, but now i'm just long? long only? >> i was born jewish, but i've converted to long only. >> it's made all the difference. >> it's a good line. >> all right, coming up, mainland mounjaro. eli lilly's drug clearing a key hurdle in china, as the weight loss drug wars rage on. what it means for that market next. plus, bitcoin etfs, but could there be another

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welcome back to "fast money." eli lilly soaring more than 2.5% to close above $800 for the first time. the company's glp-1 drug getting approval in china to treat type ii diabetes. the company also saw positive data in trials of its late-stage ch chrone's disease drug. so, a lot of developments here. obviously, for weight loss, we're still waiting for the approval for weight loss specifically, but it is regarded that this -- that's just going to be the next step. and then, of course, the supply issues still hold. >> the market continues to roar. then probably justifiably so, but you really got to believe in the -- basically in the revenue story, right? we had a whole conversation. who is the good-looking cat from cleveland, sits there with his little jacket on, talks about -- >> about lilly? oh, jared.

>> yes, love him. i asked him the question, he said, they probably have runway. you don't need to see the type of revenue growth until 2026, and that's what the market is getting ahead of. if they show signs of not being able to get there, you know, again, this is a company that -- $158 billion of revenue, it's approaching, what, $800 billion of market cap. i mean, it's expensive, folks. just understand. >> so, the two things today that -- the china news, though, i wonder, what can that market support in terms of what can they pay for this drug? >> right. >> i don't know. it has to be -- it has to be a fraction of what we expect to pay here. is all of this move then on chron's? >> jared made the point that nobody has china factored in for their estimates of future sales of the drug, so, that's just potential upside, whatever it may be, even if it's a small fraction of the population, that

could pay for it. >> what is the right multiple to put on the holy grail? i don't know, i'm long some. >> hey, but novo has been in china for multiple years now, i believe. so, it's theirs to lose, so, if it's a zero sum game, i'm not sure. i think that if you are bullish lilly, there's enough for two winners to be there, but if novo has been there for the last couple of years and lilly is just there, i think that could be the case where lilly could eat a little bit of novo's lunch, but lilly's chart looks much better. >> yeah, the trailing at 120 pe means nothing, because we know what's going on in terms of the eps growth. but back to that competitive landscape. competitors are not closing in as fast here. we know that just structurally in terms of the timeline. comparing this to nvidia, i think there's more competition there. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. >> ethereal ether. the crypto soaring as traders bet a new etf is on the horizon. what approval could mean for the whole digital coin space.

we'll dig into the ethereum delirium next. plus, lulu getting stretched, and not in a good way. shares hitting the mat, and trading at its lowest level in more than a year. does the drop present a good buying opportunity or should you nama-stay out of this snake? you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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the s.e.c. set to make a decision on a spot ether etf this week. hope that approval is coming is sending the crypto up 20% in the last two days. those hopes triggered by reports that the s.e.c. has requested key document updates from potential issuers. ether jumping 10% today, though other grip taupes have stalled out a bit. the e in steve's wage. >> wage. >> not a blicep. it's what -- >> what's yours? >> clam. >> not a clam. not a clam. >> i bet you'd love to stuff that in there. >> excuse me? why would you say something like that? >> ethereum. do we see a selloff once there's approval? which we were worried about with bitcoin. >> when you look at bitcoin, there's a supply/demand, there's

a finite amount of supply. there's none of that for' this here yum. you're not going to get the same -- i don't think you're going to get the same demand for the etf that you did with bitcoin, but i think you're going to get a considerable amount, and i think there's more room to climb from here. obviously the odds of this etf being passed, approved, were 25%, they went to 75%. i still think there's more left. >> to me, the issue now is, does one plus one equal three? and as someone that's long coinbase, i just feel like this is the on-ramp. what's the next one? the fact that you have the s.e.c. in mode, where we're starting to approve crypto-currencies, i real ease these two are so far ahead of everyone else. by the way, ethereum and bitcoin both up exactly the same amount after this move, and it kind of tells you what the market impact of this kind of announcement is. i think the on-ramp, if it's con base or other places, is still extremely important. because all we've done is pretty much validate the size of this addressable market that's going a lot higher.

>> i wonder, though, for the institutional investors who are sort of out of it until there was a product that was better than gray scale, and so, we saw the big rush in, and then billions, and then very nice run, and we're seeing it a little bit in ethereum. i wonder if the next one is going to be somewhat more muted, because the institutional investors, they got what they want? >> right. there's not as much -- yeah. >> well, they're not as exposed to ethereum as bitcoin. there's no question. bitcoin really is the digital gold. >> right, the big one. >> but it's -- i think it's critical. imagine now, like second derivative of this, how about the blended etf? you have the ability to actually put a product out there -- >> but there's also use cases with ethereum, where there's no real use cases with -- the whole block chain is basically built on a lot of ethereum structure. so, there's a lot more -- while there's not a limited supply, there's a lot more use cases. coming up, lulu loser. plunging nearly 40% this year, but is now the time to take a

shot at this downward dog? >> oh, boy. >> the debate is next. >> that's so bad it's good. plus, market cap values on the line when nvidia reports earnings after the bell tomorrow. we'll look at how the options market is gearing up for a move that could be bigger than 92% of the companies in the s&p 500, right after this. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

welcome back. stocks rising today with the s&p nasdaq both setting fresh record closes. the dow jumping 66 points. some stocks hitting highs in today's session. charles schwab trading at those levels. bank of america and citigroup at their best level since 2022. more afterhours action in urban outfitters. lululemon losing its grip today, sliding to more than a 52-week high. the brand has dropped 37% year to date, and shares down another 2.5% afterhours. this after the company said its chief product officer has resigned, and will leave the company later this month. our next guest says the company

could crash as soon as next year. let's bring in jeffries randy connick. that dund sound good. >> thanks, guys. >> when the chief product officer quits. what do you make of that news? >> look, it's clearly -- it's clear that the company's running into product problems, and it's clear that the company's running into competition issues, so, this company, it's super simple. it has four issues, it has a category that's slowing. it has a competition that is rising, it has fashion shifts that are not going towards the company from a fashion perspective. moving from skinny bottoms to wide leg bottoms. and then, finally, you have the law of large numbers. this is a $10 billion revenue company, and with competition, it's going to be hard for this company to keep growing. >> i mean, in terms of the fashion part of it, the product officer resigned, okay, so, wide leg bottoms, can't you just make

wide leg pants? they're not locked into leggings forever. they do have wider leg pants. has lulu sort of lost its appeal? >> look, if you go back a decade ago, 80% of the company sales came from its legging product. when i think of the word legs, you think of lululemon. when the bottom category is shifting to wide leg for the first time in a decade, this is a decade, it creates a massive headwind for the company, if it's not known for that particular product category. so, you know, when everybody wants the lululemon legging, they are able to gain market share against competition, but when the actual fashion trend moves away from that, to a wide leg product, then the consumer doesn't necessarily have to go to lulu, doesn't think of lulu for that product, and they have the idea of substituting to a cheaper brand to get that same look if you will. >> it's karen, thanks for being on. you talk about a number of microproblems and macro

problems, and you're way below the street in terms of earnings. is it -- what is the biggest problem there, is it athleisure sort of run its course and now it's going to be more difficult for them, or do you think it's one of those other -- what is it that puts you so far below the street? >> look, it's very simple. the street thinks that lulu lemon is going to grow double digits into perpetuity. we think the u.s. business is going to turn negative next year for the first time ever. and why is that? well, number one, the athleisure category used to grow at a mid to high single dingit rate befoe covid. now, after covid, you have that covid hangover, if you will, and that's creating a slowing in the growth rate for the backdrop of the industry. in addition, you have companies like, as i said earlier, alo and viori, you're seeing it in terms of big cities. they're gaining market share, particularly alo in a big, fast manner. so, that's creating an

additional headwind. i think what the street is missing is, they're not projecting u.s. sales to go negative next year. we are that's why we're massively below the street, and when you look at our numbers, we're projecting overall growth for the company of 4% next year, that incorporates u.s. turning negative, international still staying positive, but the street expects the u.s. business to stay positive and international growth to grow more than 40%, so, the -- the total growth rate for the company by the consensus is over 11% growth for 2025. we just think that doesn't happen. >> your price target is $240, the downside target is $150, which is quite different. so, i'm wondering, in that sort of scenario, is it a macro, you know, the company tanks, or is it going to be lulu specific still? >> it's an earnings -- earnings go down, and multiples compress. we've seen this in all types of companies, you know how it works, when the momentum leaves, so does the multiple and earnings tend to go down.

so, you know, what we're saying is, next year, the company earns 12 bucks in earnings, the street's saying 16, slap a 20 or 12, that's $240, the market cap on that is still $30 billion, so, it's not like we're expecting this company to shrink to an under armour type of market cap of $3 billion, we're still think it's $30 billion, that's the base case, but if the consumer in the united states continues to slow or slows further, if they start to go to the competitors, you're looking at, you know, massive multiple compression, $150 stock price on the downside, again, that's still a $20 billion market cap and still something that we can expect to see is a real, i think, relatively conservative assumption for lulu going forward. >> all right, randy, thank you for your time. appreciate it. randy connick. >> thanks, guys. >> all right, let's go to you, tim. you flagged lulu in terms of being an underperformer. >> look, i -- i love the call by randy. he's really dishing out the horns in this one. and someone that was short lulu

for a long time into that terrible print and covered out ahead of it, i hate myself. the issues that he is drawing attention to are not the headwinds for the sector and the covid pull forward, because everybody's got that. the competitive nature. but i do think about an under armour. i think of the ewe big byty that came with a brand so hot and became oversaturated, and it's true. he's basically saying there's zero moat here. and what's most impressive in terms of the argument, right now, they're at peak margins and the stock is doing what it's doing. peak margins on gross is 60, he's saying the street -- excuse me, peers are at 45. in terms of where this could go, we haven't even really begun to see that pull-back. >> so, when i think about bell bottoms, i think about levi. they're up -- >> we're not talking bell bottoms. we're talking wide leg. >> you are a fan of bell bottoms. >> i know where you're trying to go here. the music, right, beyonce has a top country hit. music is more going towards

country, sort of middle america, it's branching out. they wear a lot of jeans and it's boot cut jeans, right? so, you have a wider leg. levi is up over 30%. lulu is down over 30% year to date. and i'll throw in one more under armour, which is down, that chart is so bad -- >> it's good. >> good. >> so good. >> and the boot cuts. and your boot cuts. >> versus the bell bottom. the more you know. >> guy, you wore bell bottoms. >> you know something. why do you look -- are you projecting again? >> i think there was a time you told me you thought maybe you'd look good in bell bottoms. >> you have suede bell bottoms in your closet. >> that's dafrntifferent story. coming up, nvidia, how the options marketing are setting up for this potentially make or break event. and throughout may, cnbc is celebrating asian american native hawaiian and pacific island heritage.

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welcome back to "fast money." the biggest earnings report of the quarter might be what is happening after the bell tomorrow. nvidia, the chip maker is nearly doubled already this year as a.i. demand skyrockets. there's a lot on the line with this report. the options market is implying a move of roughly 8% in either direction. that translates to nearly $200 billion in market cap. that is bigger than 92% of all s&p 500 companies. so, why are s&p 500 options priced like nothing is happening this week? let's ask bay crest managing director david boule. great to have you here. >> thank you for having me. >> why this disconnect here? >> it's interesting. nvidia is the main event. it's the last big company to report, and like you said, options are anticipating an 8%

move, which is about in line with how options typically price this type of catalyst for nvidia. the difference this time around, though, it's a $2.3 trillion company, it's at all-time highs. so, that's $185, $200 billion creation or destruction in market cap that the market is expecting to happen tomorrow night. and it is fascinating that the s&p 500 is telling a completely different story. it seeing almost minimal movement this week, where as historically, the s&p moves more after nvidia's earnings report than it does after fomc, cpi, so, there's definitely a disconnect going on here. >> how about -- let's drop that into the context of the nasdaq, because, again, you know, we talk all the time, appropriately, about the leadership of semis to the nasdaq, and to the overall market. i got it. but shouldn't the nasdaq, what's the nasdaq doing, or is the nasdaq just as, you know, kind of ambivalent or agnostic on

this? >> it's pressing a little bit more than the s&p, but right now, the overall market is -- i wrote in a note, it's asleep right now. it's pricing in some of the tightest trading ranges that we're going to see over the last couple years. tomorrow, and even through the rest of the week, even though this big catalyst is out there. >> so, there are about 80,000 or so call options at strike prices 900 and below, probably to 820. is there -- does that create selling if those options are exercised? will that put a cap on the stock potentially? >> that -- that is the most notable existing option position right now, are those in the money calls. and it's a similar setup that we've seen with other big tech stocks, such as meta, where if the stock stays -- has a subdued, muted reaction, it likely won't come into play. if anything, that will add a little bit of buying pressure. if the stock starts to sell off negatively after the earnings print, as those options positions move lower, there could be some additional

selling -- >> is that because those are effectively hedges for some people that -- >> just looking at the tape, i believe those are long positions for clients, and dealers are short those positions, so, as they try to keep themselves hedged, as those options go from far in the money to out of the money, their hedge is to sell stock, so, the main strike price is 880, so, if the selling starts, and we go below 880, the selling could speed up as with go through that strike. a similar thing happened in meta, where 465 was that strike price in april. and we sliced right through it, so, the selling could essentially speed up. just want to keep an eye on it. >> david, good to see you. david boole, bay crest. what are you expecting -- >> long and nervous. as i often am. i just think the story is still very much intact. the pe ratio has come down. the overall market cap is wildly higher, but i do believe in the

underlying thesis, so, staying long. >> when you look at the stock, the stock was $200 lower in april. so, it does give a chance for people to say, i want to buy it on a discount. so, when you look at the name, though, this was all pixie dust, right? and now, they're the ones that are earning the most revenue and it's theirs to quote unquote lose, but at a certain point, you there to say to yourself, where do i want to lock in my profit? there's price targets over $1,300. people will still tell you that it's probably still cheap at 1,300 bucks. >> margins to me. i know it's going to be eps and guide. to me, it's about margins. last quarter, 77%? karen probably has it in front of her. if you start to see margins waning, contracting, that's what people will key off of. we'll see how it plays out. >> i don't know. i think people will key off of demand. >> right. >> and where -- because regardless of how the margins come in, whether it's, you know, supply chain issue --

>> they're sold out for the year. >> speaking of demand, all we've heard from the biggest companies, hyper scalers in the world. >> spend, spend, spend. >> capex is 35%. so -- there's your demand. >> it's not even just the hyper scalers, right? much bigger picture. coming up, a surprising new supporter of the eighth retail revolution. how rfk jr. is incorp rarting the movement into his presidential campaign, along with some birds of prey, oddly. that's next. more "fast money" in two. >> no application fee if you apply by may 31 at university of maryland global campus, offering online and hybrid courses and lifetime career services. learn about our more than 125 degrees

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up to a gig on the go. plus, buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. i gotta get this deal... i know... faster wifi and savings? ...i don't want to miss that. that's amazing doc. mobile savings are calling. visit xfinitymobile.com to learn more. doc? welcome back to "fast money." the eighth movement revival just got a surprising new supporter. u.s. presidential candidate robert f. kennedy jr. the politician posting -- excuse me, on x, formerly twitter, that his administration would support the retail trading rebellion, saying that he personally invested $24,000 in gamestop, hoping to, quote, punish predatory short selling to the moon. the tweet accompanied by the bizarre new campaign poster showing kennedy and an actual ape, holding what appearing to be a falcon. apes together strong, written

across the bottom. i don't know what the falcons refer to. but it's interesting that -- >> i'm looking, it's so bizarre. >> it's very opportunistic. this is a strong and very motivated and passionate group of people. and the -- the whole idea that, you know, short sellers are -- naked short sellers are someone anybody wants -- there are rules to befollowed, and, you know, so, i come mebdmend you if you pull that up, but it's even more impressive that he's latching onto this movement. >> short sellers are a vital part of -- when done properly, they're an essential part of the market, and i think there's this attempt to demonize them, which i sort of understand, but they really shouldn't do it, because you take them out, you take the speed bumps away, it's sort of -- the man against the rebellion against wall street -- that couldn't be -- that's patently false. wall street doesn't have it out for the rebellion of reddit, i mean, they're trying to help.

so, i understand what he's doing, currying favor. doesn't make sense to me. >> do you understand the falcons. >> no. i mean, the atlanta falcons. who really blew it in that super bowl. i mean -- >> are we still talking about that. >> i was just thinking about that. >> mel brought it up. >> he's been exercised for long time. >> up next, final trades.

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the all new godaddy airo. put your business online in minutes with the power of ai. final trade time. tim? >> yeah, i like that lulu call. it's a similar call that i think you're going to get knee key cheaper, too. >> mine is wait on lulu. >> to buy it? >> to buy it. to buy it. just wait. >> steve -- we have a theme

here. steve? >> so bad it's good. under armour. >> guy? >> i'm going to post tim in the bell bottoms he wore -- >> are they suede? >> i was rocking them. >> cords for sure. >> letter c continues to climb. citibank. >> all right, thank you for watching "fast." see you back here tomorrow at my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market summer, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts right now. hey, i am cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramer time. i'm just trying to make some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach, so call me at 1-800-743- cnbc. sometimes you have to ask yourself, where is the money going?