it's 5:00 a.m. at cnbc headquarters. investors are bracing for the biggest of the season as they get ready for the latest numbers and the latest for the wall street record run. we're watching for the fed influence after new comments on chris waller on the upside for the economy and the wait-and-see approach for rate cuts. retail also in the spotlight after twin beats from macys and lowe's. plus, scrapped again. more delays for boeing and "starliner" launch. and later robert f.ken kennedy

makes a push for the white house. it's wednesday, may 22, 5:00 a.m. and you're watching "worldwide exchange." thank you for joining us. we get you ready for the trading day ahead. the s&p and the nasdaq at all-time highs and the dow within striking distancing after pulling back slightly from 45,000. the market's in the red right now. moving a bit lower. looks like the dow would open about 20 points lower. we also want to check the bond market ahead of the release of the fed minutes at 2:00 p.m. later today. the benchmark, 4.43. the long bond, the 30-year, remember, this is a road on inflation expectations. the yield has declined in recent

weeks. we're looking at energy, specifically oil. biden will release 100 million barrels ahead of the 4th of july. take a look at oil pulling back once again. down more than 1%. brent crude trading at just over 82 bucks a bail. that's your morning setup. we're going back to stocks. the head liner, of course, it's nvidia. it's the biggest of o the "money movers." the first quarter results are due out after a close today. already trading at all-time highs. it's the third biggest risk off by market value right behind microsoft and apple at the same time. there's dominance in the ai conversation. it's also boosted its way across indexes. that means any move will have an outsized influence on the broader markets. the stock has more than 5% wading in the s&p 500.

it also accounts for more than 6% of the nasdaq 100 and 20% of the semiconductor. kristina partsinevelos looks at the watches for the earnings and on the call for nvidia. >> well, each of the last two quarters, nvidia beat initial revenue guidance by $2 billion and wall street is expecting much of the same with estimates at $24.6 billion. that's triple than what we saw last time. bank of america says total revenue numbers should be closer to $25.5 billion, but the debate this quarter has really been about any potential air pockets or demand lows between current gpu chips already on the market and the faster next generation chips due out later this year. aws was pishling its orders from chips already on the market to the upcoming blackwell nvidia chips. initial shares shoulder off on

the news because it would imply a demand low. analysts are quick to argue if a company would wait, they would lose their spot in line for the newer chips. even if it's not the case, demand is expected to remain. you couple that with the increased and capital spend and nvidia looks poised to continue its beat and raised pattern. frank? >> all right. let's get this conversation going and bring in robert, head of investment policy and strategy. robert, good morning. great to have you here. >> great. great to see you again, frank. >> i know you're not a chip analyst. but nvidia, i think everybody has to talk about it. incredible waiting on the undisease and sent meant overall. as you're talking to clients, how do you review this point and the possible inflection point? >> it's certainly the bellwether and something that's been

injected on the economic front infl inflation. they're metrics if they come in better or worse, they seem to inject short-term volatility. but it's part of a longer term trend and nvidia is a move toward the capex spending as you were talking about earlier, both of which we think are positive trends for earnings going forward. >> earning season has been really strong. eps, 8% above expectation ace cording to the latest read from l lseg. i want to get your expectations on the fed and recently the kmebtss from christopher waller who was on air yesterday. >> i don't think there's a lot of upside risk. like i said, things could change. rate hikes could be on the table under some scenarios of the world. right now i don't think that's the case. then if we get enough data going to right way, then we can think about cutting rates later this year, beginning of next year.

>> all right, robert, you heard what he said. basically it double hurt to wait and see. >> i think the market and the fed have had a different interpretation on inflation. the market's gotten comfortable with the fact that inflation is not headed higher and the fed is in the mode of not waiting to cut. there's a little bit of a disconnect there. the good news is the tail risks have mostly been removed. so with the latest inflation numbers, we're starting to get a bit more comfortable. that's great for both the fed and markets. so we've entered sort of the zone of stability, if you will, where inflation has been stuck a bit, but certainly not headed higher. markets are interpreting that favorably and the fed is taking a wait-and-see approach on those numbers. >> i want to look at the sector you're looking for opportunities in. one of them is health care. i do want to ask you about them. it's up 4% as we've seen a broader sector rally.

utilities are right behind tech, so we're seeing a bit of a change in leadership. it's kind of meddling with health care. at the same tomb we had a guest on yesterday. they're working with openai. that influence is something a lot of people have been talking about. why are you bullish on health care. can it help improve mar gips or are you seeing something else when it comes to the sector? >> that's certainly part of it. we've done a lot of work recently showing that sectors and industry groups that have seen market improvement are the ones seeing the best performance. health care turns up in that type of screening. you're absolutely right. it's's rife for disruption. it has a lot of opportunity to extracts costs. whether that's ai or on the robotics front. there's a lot to look forward to in terms of earnings potential and that's one sector to be interested in. >> you're seeing an opportunity. come back and talk about it.

everybody talks about small caps. thank you very much. >> thank you. for more what's drawing on the market, we'll have a lots more to come on "worldwide exchange" including one word investors have to know today. first, much more on nvidia results and why one says clearing the earnings bar this time around may not be so easy. the winning strategy republicans are bet willing secure more votes and win over more independent voters. and later we turn our attention overseas and one major tech conference kicking off in paris with our own children cho live on the floor. karening good to see you. >> i can tell you, everybody's vying to be the next ai champion. e s are plenty of startups in thrace. i'll bring you plenty of more coverage live at vivatech.

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taking a look at u.s. futures, the nasdaq swinging in the positive territory just fractionally. right now it looks like the dow would open up 20 points lower. carolin roth is in our london room with much more on the early action. good morning. >> good morning, frank. what you're seeing, investors are taking risk off the table for a second day running. take a look at this. a lot of red on our screens. germany is off by a third of 1%.

we're seeing many of the carmakers under pressure. why? there are new reports that china might be increasing tariffs on large gasoline-powered cars to 25%. the car sector, one of the worst performers in europe today. also i want to show you what's happening in the uk. the foots sy 100 is off by 0.3%. why it is, because ukcpi surprised to the upside in the month of april, coming inat 2.3% on the year. that was above forecasts. but continuing the downward trend toward the bank of england's target. the uk prime minister rishi sunak says things are back to norm appal and brighter days are ahead. we're looking at the sterling/dollar currently changing hands. it's off the session highs, but keep in mind rate cut expectations by the boe have now been pushed out potentially to august. before the data came out, the market was expecting a 50%

chance of a rate cut as early as june. these odds have now dropped down to 15%. back over to you. >> carolin roth, live in our laund newsroom. thank you. now we're going to walk across to the english channel. vivatech is europe's biggest start up event. the big item there is the artificial intelligence and hue companies can capitalize on the revolution. >> it's the hottest ticket in town. elon musk will be attending virtually. the ceo of x will be here and one of the big startups in france right at the forefront of the iowa race in partnership with microsoft and anthropic.

we've got a lot of regulators as well trying to come to grips in what ai means in terms of disruption and for businesses. it's a huge discussion. you've been talking about nvidia. how it lands is quite made. they can then create content and products and services. it's all incredibly important for this ecosystem here in europe. a lot of big players have already been talking to a man who has seen many cycles before, and that ischambers, former ceo of cisco. he's been pointing out to me that it's not typical that stocks in one psych really not dominant in the future. he said two or three could slip below the billion dollar mark and could never be recaptured again, saying they could be disrupted. you may see some make the transition from dominant cloud to dominant ai players. watch the seven closely was the

message. we keep talking abouthow accelerated this cycle is. he was saying typically it would take five years to develop a product, market it, and get to a $5 million run rate where it is viable. he said that's not happening in 18 months. that's incredibly huge. it's going to get closer to the chinese consumer. that will help its research and development. back to you, frank. >> we're watching. you were also talking about lvmh's display, that they used ai to make it, where in years past, they would have had to hire an agency. correct me if i'm wrong. i believe he said ai is a gift from god is going to create more meaningful work? is that one of the discussions?

europe has strong workers rights protections. >> that's indeed true. don't forget there's been real structural inequalities. there have been jobs with great benefits. there have been a lot of issues. we think about disruption from ai and job losses hourks does it shift the balance back to the employer? he thinks it's going to take away the mundane work. it will work with you to make it work better with you. that's a bitz of the nudge we heard this week that eventually you've got a co-pilot working with you to get more data, more insight, and everything you do is a better derived outcome because you have the computer, the intelligence behind the system working with you. he's on the page. they'll be better. he gave the example of artists who will be using ai. you're using the technology to create something better.

we'll see because john chambers was telling me there will be disruption summaries. >> fascinating interview. karen, great job out there. hope you're enjoying it. karen tso, live from vivatech. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the 2024 white house hopeful who says he's standing with aides. a story d ana tweet that you just have to see to believe. we're back on "worldwide exchange" right after this.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we're going to start with toll brothers. they're raising their guidance over what it calls boosting economy. urban outfitters also popping on strong first quarter results from its anthropology and other brands. they've been cutting prices because of slowing sales. customers are enthusiastic this year compared to exuberant last year, which they classify as healthier and more sustainable. shares up 7%. and sviasat shares are lowe. they anticipate a slowdown in its satellite services business. it's been fixing its focus from broadband solutions to the government due to competition from wireless carriers like

t-mobile. wed we told you about a policy reset. cnbc's eamon javers is back with an even deeper dive and how they plan to gain more votes for trump with these new policy ideas. good morning. >> that's right, frank. this is all about the political approach to this. we'll have a story out on cnbc.com later on this morning. we've been talking about this new strain of economic populism that's been rising in a conservative movement and an effort to steer away from low taxes and regulation and steer in to worker and family policies that might better benefit trump voters. i spoke to a former "wall street journal" writer, author of the book "tyranny inc." he said the goal is to hollow out the american middle class and eliminate some of the

pressures on the middle class that are driving the anger we see in today's culture wars and a republican party he says increasingly says is a downscaled america. he argues there's a political impairment to harness a vast swath of voters out there. they believe in traditional male and female jinder roles but embrace the gains of the new economic deal. that i love social security and the unions, particularly the ones they belong to. what they want is a stable financial foundation for their lives and one they don't see in a service-based economy. that leads to a dramatically different set of policy a ideas, things like across the back court tariffs, blocking investments with china, reforming corporate bankruptcies so it prioritizes payments and maybe most significantly for wall street, they envision a

transaction tax. they would also ban stock buybacks. now it's precisely trump's appeal to this downscare that accounts for the increasing polling success among hispanics and african americans. this also suggests that the trump coalition in 2024 could be broader than many in washington and on wall street are anticipating right now, frank. >> certainly a broader coalition would help on election day at the ballot. but i want to ask. the panel on stock buybacks and the transactions on stocks and bonds, in your mind, how is that going to work when it comes to his wall street support and big donors? >> well, there's no -- first of all, there's no guarantee that donald trump himself is going to embrace any of this. what you everybody ooh got is a coalition of academics and economic thinkers who are trying to put meat on the bones and

populism. trump himself, i would guess, will be much more tactical about this. he'll pick and choose from ideas that he thinks h work politically for him. it's up in the air he'll embrace himself. but if you look at a transaction tax, the idea from these ne-yo populous thinkers is they want to stop the friction on wall street. stop a lot of the trading that takes place that they argue leads to no economic value. they want to push the economy entire already toward production and worker pay and not toward economic activities that they say are frothy and just benefit elites in washington and corporate america. >> eamon, good to have you back today. thank you. as we head to break, watching shares of game stop, this after roberts f. kennedy j told supporters he invested $24,000 into the stock adding words to his action.

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media, and, of course, that's nvidia. you look at the s&p run with the futures pointing to pressure at the opening. its target, pro e providing a fresh look at the health of the consumer. it's wednesday, may 22nd, 2024, and you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. all right. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i am frank holland. thanks for joining us this morning. we're going to pick up this morning with a check of the nasdaq and s&p. take a look. futures are under a bit of a pressure. the dows are looking like it would open just about 40 points lower. the nasdaqs moved to the downside as well. we want to take a look at the

bond markets ahead of the fed minutes at 2:00 p.m. eastern time later today. the 10-year at 4.43. and we want to look at the energy market. oil coming off of two days of losses and president biden announced he'll release 100 million barrels before the 4th of july. wti down more than 1%. moving a few fractional points lower from our last read. brent crude, similar story, fractionally lower. that's your morning money setup. now we're going to get a check on some of the top corporate stories. silvana henao. she's here with those. good morning. >> good morning to you. disney piks spixar is cutting jobs. they're going back to the movies

instead of the disney plus platform. the layoffs come months after disney began cutting jobs in an effort to reducespending by more than $5 bill. more layoffs this time at tiktok. the social media company will cut a large portion of jobs within its operations and marketing teams starting today. the report adds the scale of job cuts is unusual for tiktok and it usually takes cost kutding measures in much smaller stages. and more bad news for boeing's "starliner" ship, nasa delaying the launch of the first ship with the crew for the vessel again due to a helium like that has been causing issues. no word yet from nasa on when the launch, which had been set for saturday, will take place, frank. >> thank you very much. wo now turn our attention to what could be the big money mover of the day, the week, the month, the year, we don't know yet. it's the latest test for the

market rally that has pushed the major indices to record highs. the stock's up 9% year to date, making nvidia the third big u.s. company by micro cap. it also gives it a huge influence over the broader markets. they're waiting 5% in the s&p 500, more than 6% of the nasdaq 100 and accounts for just about 20% of the smh. let's talk more about what we can expect. dan morgan is with us. good morning. >> how are you? >> i want to ask you about the bar chart. the estimates are, really the key metric that drives the nvidia stock, to increase by 398% this quarter. is 398%, is that good enough?

is that not good enough? look at this tremendous growth. >> you're right, frank. coming into this quarter, i believe the top line whisper number on overall revenues is roughly about $26 billion. you look at the data center group, the quarter over quarter growth. if you go and look at it for this coming physical year or for nvidia, that number is expected to go from $45 billion to $90 billion in terms of total revenues. we know, frank, from the past, the real growth as you know comes from the data center group as opposed to gaming. they have software, automotive, and other segments, but that's where the ai has been driving nvidia's growth. you know, it's a huge number, but they seem to have been beating it for the last three or four quarters. >> you haven't answered it. is there something on the line if it falls a little bit short? does nvidia need to blow in out

in your mind or is a good report good enough at this point because expectations are so high? >> yeah, you're right, frank. the consensus number, obviously they would, you know, have to beat that, you know, and everyone's hoping they're going to raise again going into the upcoming quarter. so i think just achieving the number at this point would be viewed as somewhat of a disappointment. >> a lot of implications when it comes to that. we've been talking about that all week long, the fact that it's just about a 9% move that's implied here, so that could be a $200 billion market cap swing either way. the report yesterday, important to note, amazon denied this report, but there was a report in the ft, that amazon was changing plans to order nvidia's super chip to await an updated model. again, amazon denies this, but is this is a risk going forward, that others may actually do

this. i saw the news that came out in regard to amazon that they're going to foretell ordering the hopper series, which is the existing series for the new blackwell chip. you know, whether this is something that's going to lead to other customers opting for this move, you know, up to this point, frank, we've not seen a huge drawback in terms of order growth, especially for the hopper 100, which is their key a-1 chip. you know what would concern me, frank, is if we started sewing announcements coming out of these big mega tech companies where they're opting for their organic chips that they generate. even if they were to opt for the black well that's expected to come out, some people are saying in october. what does that do, frank?

it uploads the first quarter of 2025 to have stellar growth out of nvidia related to blackwell. so they seem to win on either front. we're talking about a possible air pocket and you're laughing and saying, they'll come back later. here's what i wanted to talk about. the blended eps for the tech sector in q1, 24%, but if you take nvidia out of there, it ooh is only 11%. give me a sense how important nvidia is. those are the numbers. but i want to talk to you about the incentives. we don't get the raise you believe investors want to see. what does that mean around the mega cap, ai trade, et cetera? >> you're right. this quarter -- we haven't gotten all the numbers in. you said 24%. i had 20% in in terms of tech growth. if you look at the semi-conductors within technology, this quarter we're expected to grow earnings at

71%. you're right, frank, a big part of that number would be coming from nvidia. this is the poster child for ai, the poster child for chips. we will get some numbers later on in the upcoming weeks from the likes of broadcom and others, but micron may scloes down the cycle. but you're right. it's a huge number, a show-me stock not only in the tech era but chips as a whole. so any disappointment would raise concerns about the recovery and the chips space on a bigger front. >> thanks a lot for being here. we appreciate it as always. >> thank you, frank. coming up, buying what microsoft is selling. you can see shares are up more than 3%. we'll have that and much more coming up after the break. stay with us.

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box. they're pressuring growth for that move. time now for your global briefing. uk inflation falling, up 2.3%. that's down from last month's more than 3% read. it puts into question when the bank of england ka start cutting rates. tesla europe sales falling. this follows a similar downturn in tesla shipments from shanghai last month despite strong growth if there china's ev market. >> and microsoft is investing $1 billion in an ai data center in kenya, marking the latest in a string of international investments. speaking with brad smith, highlighting the importance of betting on the global south especially given the talent base already in kenya. amazon web services announcing moments ago it's

investing in data centers in spain. it was pegged at gist $2.7 billion. coming up, the key numbers to watch ithotn e her big earner, that's tar get. what they need to bounce back. we'll be back right after this break.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'll be speaking with edward jones' managing partner penny pennington about what it looks like. that's at 10:00 a.m. eastern. there's still time to sign up by scanning the qr code on your screen or going to cnbc.com/fr. the stocks are down more than 2% this week after they said they were cutting thousands of prices on groceries and other items. they've been dealing with a lot of pullback. walmart is dealing with it less because of their grocery mix. walmart says it's gaining market share from higher income shoppers. joining me on set is the president of sw retailer advisers. during the whole break we were talking about target, what's

going on with them. i want to start with this. they're cutting prices on 5,000 items. that sounds incredible. ubs out with a note butting that out in perspective. that's about 6% of the inventory. when you hear this, what does that make you think about? >> target is only 20% where walmart is over 50% and that's where the share war is right now. we know inflation food is up 20% in the last couple of years. walmart's is cutting their prices. they have companies that can cut advertising and their membership program and target has to step up to the plate as well. so it's walmart and target. hey, we're cutting prices. no, we're cutting prices. they don't have these other

businesses to offset some of the price discounts. what should they do in your mind? >> it's very much about discretionary. the good news is there's a bit of inflation. the consumer's starting to get interested again. they're saying not so much sticker shock. what they've been doing is their private label brands and they're continuing to roll out additional brands. but i think the real winner is they're rolling out target 360. you may a fee, you get same day free shipping. it can come to your house in under three hours. it's amazing. that's how they're going to continue to win share against walmart who's gaining the higher income consumer. >> question know commerce is growing in general. it takes more workers. i was really shocked to find out that now e-commerce delivery is a bigger part of revenue than

the actual store when it comes to walmart, which is kind of a shock. i think of people going to store. realistically can target compete with a walmart and an amazon? >> you're right. it was about drive to the store, pick it up, and they put it in your trunk. walmart is talking about their e-commerce business is getting more profitable. the operating margin is about three times the amount their regular business is. that's getting more profitable. for target, they need that discretionary consumer to turn. they need the same day delivery to be efficient, and they're ramping up their advertising businesses and others to subsidized keeping prices low. >> i want to ask you a question about target. yesterday they said there's kind of a gap and how that impacts

different retailers. i want you to listen. >> you have a consumer at the high end being more choiceful. the low end, i do think, is a melting ice cube. i've been on the show and talked through this. what i'm calling it now is a selective session. >> that was one of his comments. he talked about there being a high end, low end. is target stuck in the middle? ? >> it is. matt is right. we've gone through inflation. now the low end we're starting to hear, whether it's mcdonald's, you name it. it's starting to feel the pressure here. so, yes, i think they're stuck in the middle. they're a higher in consumer, the $75,000 range. but they're missing the real food gap. that's the game-changer. that's what's driving share and driving their higher consumer

into walmart's arms. >> his pick for the lower consumer stop piks were t.j. m maxx, ross. and they still want luxury goods in some sense. >> they're sting going to shop somewhere. tjx has been one of my top picks. that's where the business is. >> tk over there. >> we love it. >> are you a maxxanista? we don't even know. bracing for results. the potential seismic impact and the impact they could have. and we're celebratesing all

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exchange." we're looking at our wrap-up. the trump campaign is looking at crypto donations. >> mcdonald's franchisee group probing the company's $5 value meal saying while it's good for the consumer, mcdonald's will be looking for support. fed's waller is saying there's not a lot of upside on the rate and the economy. they plan to cut starting later this year and next year depending on the data.

urban outfitters' earnings beat shows they've been cutting prices. and raspberry pi confirming they will open shares next month. we get the home sails data this morning. we look at earnings results from nvidia, target, snowflaking and va kourp and we hear from austan goolsbee ahead of the open and get the latest fomc meeting minutes later this afternoon. the earnings for nvidia continues to push it to new records. ahead of those results, options results showing 9% in either direction, translating to it.

for more on this and the trading day ahead, let's bring in jeffrey kleintop with charles schwab. good morning. glad to have you back. >> thank you for having me back. >> i think everybody is talking about nvidia. when you're talking client ts, looking at portfolios, how do you view this inflection point with nvidia earnings? >> we know ai is a huge and rising theme, and so are trades. i'm looking on sending nvidia's chips to china. that's going to be a big issue, really beyond that that has tent tackles that goes across autos and elsewhere. i want to hear more about that. >> that's one big factor. i want to ask you in general, do you have some investors that might be on pins and needles.

is there something where you have to make a shift or move something around against a potential hedge of something that might happen or go in on this? >> look, nvidia has beaten by a quarter. expectations are very high. maybe a risk in many investors' portfolios. i'm advocating for a higher approach. >> i want to get a sense of how you see today shaping up. what is your w.e.x. word of the day? >> it's immigration. when fed chair powell addressed reporters after the may 1st meeting, he was given seve severalenings to put rate hikes on the table and he didn't take them. the minutes of the meeting offered clues why they think fed rates are restrictive enough. expect to see the word

immigration mentioned sercht times. that's one reason wage pressure could continue to ease. when they hinted at it about a week ago, it was a key point of discussion among fomc investors. >> i want to talk about opportunities you're seeing in the global market. a lot of people think it's a big frothy. i want to ask you about a few different ones. i was in london as you may or may not know. i saw the ftse up, 8%, 8.5% year to date. is this more on what you're talking about? >> you've got a discount to the 10-year average. this morning we got the april uk cpi number. it plunged to 2 pnlts 3%. that was disappointing.

it was supposed to come down to 3 2.1%. if you've got a combination of a recovery, that could lift valuations. >> we're one of the first guests to talk about japan. the nikkei up 15%. it's not valuation, right? it's a (d) story. i was calling it cardboard box recession. japan was recovering from that. it's outpaced the quarter. you combine that with fair valuations and you get a backdrop for continuing equities. >> we'll have to wait to see whether we get an intervention on the yen.

great to see you. one more quick look at the futures. they've been moving low. that's going to do it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" starts right now. good morning. we're going to hear from nvidia. washington is giving billions of dollars more in student loans and easing prices at the pump. in the meantime trhe trump campaign will accept crypto donations. and rfk investing in gamestop. it's wednesday, may 22, 2024, and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪

good morning, everybody, and welcome to "squawk box" right here on c nbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with mike santoli. joe is off today. and andrew is reporting live from paris. andrew, tell us what you're doing there. what do you have coming up? >> reporter: we're now 65 days. yesterday was 66 days when i saw you from the olympic games. we're live from paris at vivatech. they're all here in paris. we have a whole number of them from med eye and openai. it's look a little bit like the french version of ces or those who may remember something called come de