for most of the morning. brent, i think, big piece on the tape today about its flirtation as there's some discussion about well supplied market and an opec meeting in the coming months. >> oil prices has been soft. copper soft as well. in other words, good for the inflation story if you're worried about sticky inflation hanging around. >> let's get to the judge. >> all right carl, thank you so much. welcome to the "halftime report." i'm scot wapner, front and center the great weight for nvidia. reporting earnings four hours from now we'll lay out what's at stake. joining me, jim laventhal. you know what we're going to talk about that's the most important thing going on today all right, joe, wolf, on nvidia, rarely has there been a single stock with such importance

as long as it tops expectations, they say, nvidia is likely to remain a key tail wind for the overall u.s. stock market. they're going to live up to the hype. >> do we really think that one quarterly report, even if they miss is going to motivate investors to remove this company as a core holding and a portfolio? >> no. >> this is the anchor. >> no one is going to say you're going to sell it i don't buy that onebit. >> absolutely. >> i do think, though, if they miss, this stock could go down a lot and the nasdaq could go down 2% >> so they get the benefit of the doubt if it goes down. yes, the stock market will go down if there's a miss the bear argument is simple. forget that they have to beat. they have to beat by how much? they have to beat by an exorbitant amount. fundamentally, the blackwell chip is coming out later in the y year you've got customers that are going to hold back on spending

in anticipation of blackwell the problem is two-fold, and the reason why i actually think tonight i wouldn't be surprised to see the stock up 5 to 10%, from a perspective of positioning, april 19th, stock goes down 10%, on what, the expectation that chip demand is weakening. what happened subsequent to that all of the big technology, excuse me, big technology companies report they report and tell you what, we're going to be spending money. meta, alphabet, amazon, all coming out, we're spending a ton of money, stock rallies. they are cutting back positions in nvidia and other beg mega cap companies, and the option market is telling you it's skewed toward the put side. i actually think positioning is set up the right away where this stock continues to move higher and goes above a thousand tonight. >> jason snipe, we're talking about the options market

implying a plus or minus 8% move, plus or minus, $186 billion worth of market cap. n nvidia represents 6 1/2% of the nasdaq 100 in case you're scoring at home as to why the stock holds so much importance. >> 100%. and last quarter options market implied a 13% move either way. i think the volatility has come down a little bit. i think what's important to me is something joe alluded to in terms of the performance and price action you know, the revenue guide was 24 billion for this quarter. i think the whisper number is around 26. so, you know, if they hit that or even come close to that, i think it's a blowout obviously, and i think that's likely to happen you know, the other thing is i think about the ai race, and folks holding back on the blackwell chip that's going to be produced later on this year you know, when i think about the ai race, i don't think they will

hold back on spending. even though it's not the most sophisticated chip the more sophisticated one is coming out later this year i don't think that holds back anything, and i think that we'll see an explosive quarter this y year. >> earnings year over year expected to be up 410% revenue expected to be up 241% just gives you an idea of why this stock is where it is. >> it certainly does i mean, it's pretty incredible i think i mentioned this to you yesterday, scott the earnings estimates are 230% higher than they were one year ago. they're 20% higher than at the beginning of the year. now, i think they will beat the earnings settlements i think they will raise guidance, and my comment rhetorically asks this, does anyone disagree with that? in the world, i'm struggling to find a person who says no, they're going to miss. i heard your comments wonderfully made about what hedge funds have done, and put buyers have done

i think what they're saying is probably what i'm saying which is that everybody wexpects a beaten race. this would have to be one heck of a quarter to beat lofty expectations there are some people, me included saying it's probably priced in. i'm a holder of the shares, about a 2% position. i expect in the fullness of time, i will probably double that i'm not buying it today. that's my comment. >> it's interesting. when people say it's already priced in, it's not already priced in. and the overwhelming majority of people, logically when you look at nvidia, you say, yeah, it's priced in already. this company, you can not bet against it from the perspective of holding a position. >> i'm not betting against it. i do hold a position i hear you you're right, that has been the history for several quarters you agree at some point, that won't be the case. >> that's fair >> you think if they hit the ball out of the park from a guidance standpoint, it's

already priced in. >> i don't think that's controversial. yes, that is what i'm saying it might be wrong. i'm not sitting here saying. by no means, settle the stock, for goodness sakes if it goes down, i'll buy more. >> i don't understand why you go with the sell the stock thing. no one is suggesting if they miss, you're going to sell the stock. that doesn't mean the stock, is not going to go down why does it have to be, either they beat or you stay in the stock, you miss, you sell the stock. no one is suggesting that. who's thinking about selling the stock? >> i may have been misreading what you were saying, what you were asking. my point is i'm under weight this stock, to where i want to be, to where i think i will be i'm not buying it here at $947 a share. that implies, i think i will get a lower price to buy it. i'm not talking about selling. that's not in the cardsm but what i am saying, and again, could very well be wrong is that the expectations for this stock

are incredibly lofty >> which is why we ask kristina partsinevelos to come here to post nine to tell us if they can live up to the hype. i mean, you know the story tell us about it all the time. expectations keep going higher ceo's a rock star, right everybody seems to think like the commercial, you're not a rock star. this sguy is a rock star. >> he talked about filling up a stadium. all of these celebs going to see him. i have point s for all of you guys 50% of data center revenue last quarter came from cloud hyper saler. tesla is known tobecome a bigger customer the past quarter. that should help drive it. amd, they released their earnings first, they did raise their ai revenue guidance to 4 billion. so that is a good barometer for

nvidia, you know, for the strength going into that and then this one is not mentioned too often. there's a high correlation between taiwanese chip exports and nvidia sales exports, recent reports showed some strong strength, and so that's, you know, another reason to your question, scott, why we see a driver i want to highlight risk you talked about demand being priced in. you have challenged that i think estimates have come up quite a bit leading into this. maybe not necessarily your guidance question, but that does mean, if you're saying it's not priced in, you're not believing the hype theeory, right >> the other times over the last 18 months, if you thought all of the ai news was priced in, other than periods of pullback, you're wrong. >> you said blowout quarter, and then there was quite a pullback, and had an outsized negative effect on the markets in the summer of last year. >> that's why we suggest that it

hold so much importance tonight. >> you mentioned the stacks and the impact on the growth rate of the s&p 500. i think the key thing for nvidia and why everyone watching should really care and not because you necessarily own it or it's in your fund that you have, but because the earnings potential for nvidia, it's climbed dramatically compared to other names. that weighs a lot when you factor in this company and its impact on markets. you talked about april, didn't the fed, comments about the fed, and you saw tech all across the board, you know, possibly no cuts in that whole debate. that played a role in nvidia shares as well. >> that's healthy. >> of course any pull back. >> you had the 10% positioning correction already, and i think that's a point of emphasis as you look forward, where the positioning is not as speculatively long as we

thought. but i guess the question for tonight really comes down to is the ai trend and the thesis surrounding ai still, you know, levitating still supported i look at the recovery that we've had in this month, and it's all about corporate earnings, and its corporate earnings growth from the technology companies i guess more than anything else. what nvidia does is invalidates what we're witnessing in corporate earnings, more than idiosyncratic. >> it's going to have a big play on, look, from the april bottom, tech has been the best performing sector. okay in some respects, it's going to validate that move, and whether you think that this market, nasdaq has been hitting, you know, a few all-time high several times during the week. it's going to decide whether you get that next leg higher potentially, and if you get it soon not whether it's going to happen at all but if you get it soon,

don't you think? >> i think that's exactly right, whether you get it soon. i do think there will be another leg higher in this market, and i have been consistent in saying i think nontechnology will do better than tech, but i think this the short run if nvidia goes down tomorrow for whatever reason, not that they're going to miss, i don't think anybody thinks that, but if the expectations are too high i'm not saying small caps will rally in the face of nvidia going down i don't think that's a reasonable thing to assume i think to your question, whether the rally happens sooner or not, once you get downstream tonight and tomorrow, getting into next week, the market is not going to be thinking about nvidia's earnings anymore. they're thinking about what comes next you will see and can see some differentiation in stock price returns besides just technology. >> you still, jason, have a tremendous amount of concentration in a reasonably small number of names. >> absolutely. >> the hedge fund monitor from goldman sachs, they're the most popular. all the megacaps are on the

list that's not going to be a surprise to anybody. the problem with that is as ubs today talks about, that can make or break your returns. if you're too concentrated in these names or not enough, joe t., because you've had concentration, the likes of which has not been seen for at least two decades. >> yeah, no. and that's 100% right, and i think back to the first quarter where tech was an eighth best performing sector in the market, and energy was number one, you show how quickly the story reverses and the enterprise spend that christina spoke about, all from the hyperscalers in terms of ai spending. so i think there's absolutely some concern with how far they have run and how quickly they've run. we have had this conversation often, and i do, to jimmy's point, i think the cyclicals can absolutely work, and i think

once, to jimmy's credit, once this nvidia story is over, the print is done, and we can focus on other areas of the mark. >> did you tell us what the whisper numbers are. >> it's 25 billion for total revenue, so that's the -- it was 24.6, what the street is anticipating, but 25.5 close to $26 billion one last thing, retail traders, we can't discount the flow of retail traders in the name to jim's point about negative momentum downwards that could be driven by the retail traders, given what is it, almost 50% of the flow is from them. that could be a little one. >> i'll see you on "closing bell," look forward to that. kristina partsinevelos covering nvidia other streaks. apple and alphabet we're going to watch those stocks closely over the last few hours of trade here. apple is back towards two flat on the year. it's up 16% over the last month.

what do we think about apple as, you know, again, i don't know, misfortune, i guess, of having to rebalance when you did play by the rules that you do and watch this stock sort of take off. >> here we are at the 14 minute mark of the show, and the biggest concern that i have right now about the market and about positioning is i feel as though what's happening in the month of may is we're reestablishing as that no suggested, we're reestablishing that narrow concentration, that narrow performance concentration from the mag 7, month to date, apple is up 13%. microsoft is up 10%. nvidia, meta, up 9%. it doesn't moan other areas of the market aren't working. they are it's different than the field where you had other areas of the market that were negative. it's not that they're negative we're seeing recently that these companies are leading

performance higher, and the concern i have this evening is that if nvidia delivers the type of performance that takes the stock higher at a 5% waiting of the s&p, i think that's only going to intensify this budding dynamic, this return to 2023, where you had a very narrow set of stocks leading performance higher in that environment, look, the reality is clear adam parker and i talked about this on closing belmol months ao he's right it's impossible to outperform the s&p where the dominant performance is going to come from i'm concerned that we're back in that place, and to your point, apple got it started apple got it started with the buy back. >> they did. nvidia rallying back to 950 was a nice exclamation point amazon has been around a new high up 21% year to date. they're holding their shareholders meeting

they started about 15 minutes ago. our kate rooney joins us now i mean, some of the, you know, secrets are out, i guess, based on your reporting of this overhaul to alexa. but what else should we look forward to as we watch this stock do quite well of late. yeah, scott, updates on alexa, but amazon is introducing the shareholder proposals in the annual meeting the stock nearing an all-time high artificial intelligence has been part of the bull case, especially within aws, chwhich i get a new ceo. that worked with matt garman, a wartime ceo and technical leader, tasked with getting ahead in the competitive ai landscape. one area that amazon is now looking to beef up the ai offering is with alexa they will give the voice assistant a major ai overhaul, adding a monthly subscription to offset the costs

it could have more g gen ai-powered chat bots the price has not been decided yet. >> you bring us up to date on the developments from the meeting. jason snipe, talk about amazon it's up 21% year to date. >> what i like about amazon and what has played out this year is operating income has grown substantially. i mean, up 40% year over year. aws has reaccelerated, up 17% in the last quarter so a real great job with the retail business as well. i think going forward, and then when i think about the grocery business and the other business they're involved in, you know, i think about them taking the lead in that space as well. so i just, i really like this name i continue to like it. and i think out of the mega cap

spectrum, it's my favorite play. >> you're new to the name, initiated a few months ago you would like to add more do you think you're going to get the chance >> i'll be okay if i add from higher as we go long i did add some last month in april. you know, one of the things that triggered me in buying it, scott, was the recognition in february that it was on the pres p -- precipice of breaking out. the share price being flat for three years, that was that imminent breakout that i was playing. i don't mind adding to it higher i think its earnings, when we look at earnings multiple in the low 40s, we know if we turned off a lot of the r and dprks sp - d spend, that multiple would be in the low 20s i don't think i have strayed from my value passion in buying this stock if it goes a little higher, it's still going to be an attractive valuation for me. >> i'm looking at other discretionary stories today too. our chart of the day we need to

talk about it's lululemon, and it's getting hammered at least it was. there it is. on your screen, right there. the stock is down 6% as we have this there's a new 52-week low this would be the sixth consecutive day of losses, four straight weeks of losses we had matt boss on yesterday, the top retail analyst we had him on closing bell from jpmorgan he's overweight the stock, he has a 500% price target. he defended the name take a listen. >> lulu can drive the double digit top line growth. you have international it's still in early innings. less than 20% exposure to the international markets. you have men's that can still double from here accessories is still an opportunity and the total addressable market for casual, there's just no question that it's larger on the other side of

the pandemic >> that's matt boss, joe, used to own the name. >> we did. >> is it worth defending here. if you own that stock, should you be seriously concerned >> i don't think if you own the stock you should be seriously concerned. i think as you and i have discussed, there's the potential it's beginning to lose harkt sh market share from. so some of the competitors to itself i think the answer to that is getting close to a trough. the concern that you might have in buying the stock here is that you're sitting with a stock that you're going to have to bide your time with, that over the course of the coming quarters, it's going to have to prove that it is not losing market share over the coming quarters, it's going to have to prove that you see the acceleration in revenue growth so candidly, i don't know that i would at $302 say, well, the

stocks got another 15 to 20% to the downside or 15 to 20% to the up side. i think it's rightfully repriced itself lower to where it is right now, and i think it could potentially be dead money over the coming quarters. >> i mean, matt boss, you know he's not naive to the story, obviously, he talked about moderating growth. if it's not going to grow as fast as it was before, does it deserve the same degree of premium that the stock was getting before i think that's highly debatable. do they have a mote around what they had or, you know, continue to have. there are other competitors out there. you talked about market share. there are others who are producing stuff that looks pretty similar doesn't cost as much i'm talking about nonpublic. >> private labels. >> i got you but, i mean, the point still stands, look at how much of a

tough time nike has had. while not a direct competitor, they're kind of comparable you know, joe, i think you analyzed it right. this is guilty until proven innocent just like nike. >> the perfect banner we put on here is the lululemon case lost. >> for now until they prove it otherwise. i hope they do prove it otherwise. to the extent that somebody is worried about the consumer, you look at nike, like lululemon, and say there's a problem. you look at dick's sports it's not the direct comparable. maybe the consumer is fine there are cross currents. >> i don't think this is a referendum on the health of the consumer. >> good, good. >> i think it's a referendum on the health of lulu. >> i think it could be a referendum on a demographic that shops at liulu. >> let's look at revenue growth in the last quarter, 15%

revenue growth over the last two years t 25%. revenue growth over the last three years, 30% moderation there balance sheet, still strong, looks good but softening up a little bit this is the worst performing stock out of 52 consumer discretionary names in that sector that type of performance doesn't recover quickly. it's absolutely repricing itself to a level where it's got to find a base and a reason and a catalyst to move higher. >> matt boss told you, one of the reasons will be they're in the beginning of international growth total addressable market is massive and it's going to be much bigger on the backside of the pandemic that doesn't necessarily speak to their revenue growth rate they may be available in more markets, but i don't know. you go around. you see more competitors i want to move i know you want to make a point because i want to get to the financials too you have new highs today, new

52-week for citi new 52-week for bank of america. morgan stanley is $1.50 away from its own high. goldman sachs, the stock has been around new highs. the price target goes to 525 from 478 you want to give me something, goldman sachs, you recently added to it. >> i did and i think as it relates to goldman, and when we talk about underwriting and capital markets, i think that bottom last year, and guess what, even if that's more of a 2025 story, we all know that the narcmarket forward-looking mechanism. it's prudent to obviously make a move and get a position here it's been a core position. the stock is up 20% year to date 19% in the last three months i think there's continued momentum here, and i think it deserves an allocation in your portfolio. >> what about goldman, 5:25 price target >> i'm fine with that.

i know the feeling toward financials is 23% sector exposure the entire sector is rerating higher it's an environment when you look at the potential for a steepening yield advisory fees to gain momentum you're seeing trading environment being strong look at interactive brokers, how well it is trading currently i think that validates and gives you the evidence that the overall trading environment is good where these money central banks can benefit from it. >> coming up, we have developing drama in the oil patch today ex exxon shareholders taking aim at the company's ceo. critical annual meeting one week away jim and joe in that stock. we'll break down at what's at stake. details next so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw!

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good to have you back with us we have developing drama in the oil patch. ex exxon facing a shareholder uprising against climate policy, trying to move members of the company's board, including ceo darren woods jim, let's talk about this because you do own the stock

bit of a juicy story here. what do you make of it >> if you own the shares you're not going to support this suit exxon mobil is doing what it needs to i understand where the suit is coming from in terms of protecting the environment if you want to get to green new energy, you're going to have to use fossil fuel to get there better to partner with the exxons of the world than to vilify them. in the meantime, what is salient here on a fundamental basis is natural gas prices i know it has nothing to do with the lawsuit, sorry, scott, but natural gas prices have almost doubled from their low of about a month ago. at that time, inos, we're seeing, that's the thing to watch for for the next leg up in the stock. that matters far more than the lawsuit. >> joe. >> back to the lawsuit, for a second, if we could, wall street is going to decide on this vanguard, black rock, state street, fidelity, 23% ownership of the shareholder base. they're the ultimate decision makers which way are they going to side

on this? >> i think we know which way they tend to. >> i think we do the index funds tend to vote there was also a surprise a couple of years ago, engine one got three directors, am i direct three directors on the board there's some precedent behind all of this. look, the reality of it is we have to come up with a c collaborate effort to understand the needs of improving the climate, and also in addition to that, the need with all the geopolitical tensions around the world. the stress that we had related to oil production surrounding the russia and ukraine conflict, we have to understand that there's got to be something collaborate that satisfies both parties in this collaborative. . >> like that >> now i do. now i do by the way, energy is the worst performing sector. >> here we go. >> the past month. oil is down again today.

>> that's not not let's talk more about retail i know we hit lulu earlier target today, i think you know about that story that's down a lot. you got shoppers pulling back on grocery and discretionary. ja you sold it last year. >> i did >> tjx, they did hike their full year outlook let's take a look at shares of tjx. joe, i'll give you the ball back. >> tjx is further evidence that low and middle income consumers are buckling because interest rates remain high. all of the evidence, whether it's mcdonald's, starbucks, home depot, lowe's, appliance, sales are down tjx said today, consumers are trading down tjx is off price why did walmart do well last

unique, grocery did really well. what does that mean? that means that consumers are not dining out they're going to walmart, buying the groceries there. they're cooking at home. so i really believe, what we heard from target today, discretionary spending is under pressure i think collectively it's evidence that the consumer is weakening. we've always had this soft landing, hard landing in the middle there's something called the firm landing, and i think that's ultimately where we're going to end up, and it's going to allow the federal reserve to cut rates before the end of the year. >> costco, price target to 850 that's from 805 at oppenheimer, it's a record today, and that's on pace for 15 weeks, jason. >> costco, as it relates, we see the price action, stock up 21% year to date, and 10% in the last three months. new cfo. when i think about the membership model and the reatttensio

is very strong the kirkland brand continues to produce, and to joe's point in thinking about the consumer, the consumer they're catering to is a higher end consumer, and they're continuing to do well. >> shopify got updated today, at goldman, buy from neutral, price target, $74 from $67, what do you think? >> it's been a dud stocks down 15% month to date. challenging surrounding this company. ecommerce should be doing well one year ago, we brought ma cato libre, up 19% this month the disparity is remarkable between these two ecommerce platforms. i view the stock as a dud. >> seema mody has the headlines for us >> let's start with politics, donald trump lawyer rudy giuliani has agreed to stop accusing two former georgia

workers of election fraud. the mother daughter pair said giuliani continues to defame them on social media despite losing a defamation lawsuit accusing them of election fraud lawyers for giuliani have yet to respond. the white house announced another $7.7 billion in student loans will be forgiven for 160,000 borrowers. this batch of debt relief approves borrowers through the plan or other income driven repayment programs including today's announcement, the white house said a total of 4.75 million americans have seen their loans canceled. feet week in new york is kicking off with the annual parade of ships on the hudson river. the parade of navy and coast guard ships began this morning, over 2,000 personnel are expected to participate. great time scott, back to you. >> great week in new york, seema mody, thanks. up next, chipotle, garmin

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we're back we're going to do our calls of the day. edward life sciences up graded to buy price target from 105 to 98. joe you own this they remove intuitive surgical, this is at citi, they removed it from the focus list. what do you think? >> why would they do that? >> surgical hit an all time high maybe it hit where they thought it was going to go and now it's time to put it off the focus list. >> i want to put it on my focus list both companies are benefitting so much from the utilization of technology, the combination of technology and health care for the consumer i think over the next several years. if you think about it, health care is the one industry where we have not seen significant disruption from technology just yet. think about intuitive surgical, the da vinci robot these are two names i want to

own, and overall, the health care sector, it's a sector i want to continue to build positioning in recently, i bought merck, amgen, and other names i'm looking at. >> striker upgraded today to buy. that's it. needham, price target to $392. >> very solid revenue growth for stryker. i think also about the glp-1 phenomenon and all the eligibility for folks that once were not eligible for different joint replacements and surgeries that now are because of the advent of glp-1, i think that's where stryker plays. >> chipotle price target raised to $3,485, from 3,300 at oppenheimer, rereiterated, out perform, what do you think >> i think it could get there ahead of the 50-1 stock split. for the viewers, that's of june

18th the date of record, and then june 25th, it actually gets affected be careful here. it's getting a little bit rich on a valuation perspective, and also looking at a recent 13 f, bill ackman in pershing square reduced their position in chipotle by 10%. now, he still owns 740,000 shares, and you have to acknowledge, this is probably one of the best trades that bill ackman has had owning chipotle over the last several years. he doesn't get enough credit for the winners, and on this one, he should. >> garmin, that was downgraded, joe, to under perform at bank of america. they take the price target from 150 to 165 they say that their worry momentum is decelerating, and that would mean the current valuation is unsustainable and quote unquote, too rich. >> so in advance in reading that note, what i did was observe momentum as we look at it, and try to statistically define where i see momentum beginning

to accelerate or neutralize. it's probably around the 144, 145 level for this company so keep that in mind it could drop another $10 at that point yes, the momentum is neutralized. >> we take a quick break, come back on the other side with mike santoli and his midday word, that is next you bring a lot back

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has empowered more than 200,000 veterans to serve their communities and their careers. from professional certifications, to job training, to help navigating programs and services, we give veterans access to support from anywhere in the world. we're back, our senior markets commentator, mike santoli is here for his midday word we all know what we're waiting on yields erupted today it's a wait and see. >> it is a wait and see, and i think the question is what do we make of the markets almost extreme calm going into this i don't mean with regard to nvidia itself, if the options straddle says it's going to be a 7 or 8% move, that tells me,

there's no straight way to handicap this move you have dozens of south side analysts and hundreds of hedge fends trying to figure out which way it goes. but the overall market is very comfortable for right or wrong with the current setup when you have the vix at 12, and the vix should be at 12. based on how placid the overall market has behaved in the last several days, and you have this, you know, generally favorable rotation going on, even when you have a majority of stocks slouching a little bit lower at this point so, you know, markets like give me something to react to and i will we think we're in the right spot. >> we have seen other times, obviously, where a single stock, apple, for example, the size of its weighting has an outsized impact on the way the overall market trades. as wolf was talking about today, rarely do you see it in the case of something like nvidia, where

it's just had this meteoric rise on the hope, prayer and monetization, somewhat of this new technology it's interesting. >> it's not common in that sense, you know, because it's so singular, and because they are such a focal point of all of these hundreds of billions, really, flowing in that direction it's not that much of a macro tale for the market's great with these companies spending the tens of billions to build out. what is also interesting now is the other sub themes in the market the reflation trade, many that's sort of running its course with copper having a downside reversal today the fact that financials have been so strong, the fact that globally the markets have been so good. we're not just make or break on the ai trade at this moment. >> good stuff. i'll see you on closing bell take viewers right up to the line there straight ahead, jim is doubling down on one name coming off a four-day losing streak going to walk us through the new trade we're making and hit others on the street next

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we're back we've been highlighting only every day stocks that have been on long winning or losing streaks. we do have some to highlight today. oracle, six days in a row.

jimmy? >> i'm surprised it doesn't have more of a following. they're building the data centers, they're providing the cloud services that ai needs and if you're looking to play the ai trade and you feel for whatever reason you can't buy nvidia or microsoft is too expensive, here's your name. this is just easy to buy here. >> cisco is on a four-day losing streak, that's also you. you used that four-day dip to buy more today >> yeah. it's up today. here's what happened last week, they reported earnings it was a good quarter, good guidance, stock went down and there's a reason why it's given disappointing guidance for five quarters in a row before that. when that happens, you're in the penalty box, it's five-minute major. you don't get out until at least two quarters in a row of better than expected earnings and guidance chuck robbins is a well-seasoned ceo, and they know how to do that when i listened to the conference call, i thought yeah, they're on track it will take until the next quarter to surge, but this turn

around right here is a tactical play, where people are looking and thinking about the quarter saying maybe this is the right entry point here so this might be a tactical add, but in the long run, like the setup for cisco. >> jason, give me something on arista networks. four days down for them. >> yeah, and still up 35% year-to-date, 18% in three months rosenblatt, there was a double down grade a couple weeks back, and that was in regards to nvidia's new product and how they might affect the market network, but i think they continue to regain steam it's pulled back a little over the last few days, but that's even in anticipation of nvidia's report >> we'll take a break and come back and highlight "two big winners, two big losers"in today's session.

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some winners and losers. analog devices on the winner's list you sold it in the rebalance a few weeks ago. >> yes, we did i do have regrets surround thing stock. the stock was basically nowhere. the momentum had been neutralized on a 12, 6, and 3-month basis. what do they do today? they reported a very strong quarter, and the stock is advancing nearly 9%.

>> don't be so depressed, joe. >> i have deep regret. i like this company. you're punishing me today. >> you punish yourself autozone they missed earnings estimates yesterday. jason snipe, real quick. >> yeah, but for me, the catalyst for azo is the international business brazil and the commercial business will be okay. >> we'll do "finals" next.

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join us at 3:00 eastern on "closing bell. right up to nvidia earnings. josh brown, bryn and stacey will be with us also, we'll hit everything i hope you'll join me now. now to "final trades." joe snmplt >> so i've already said i believe nvidia goes above $1,000 but the certain about nvidia tonight and the effect on the market, what you do is buy puts on the smh >> jason snipe >> walmart

really strong quarter and e-commerce sales up 21%. i like this one. >> focus on that and farmer jim >> vertex. it's spent a lot of this year consolidating but today set a new all-time high. it's clearly going higher from here >> you guys have a good day. i'll see you on "closing bell. "the exchange" begins right now. is thank you, spot. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead this hour. we didn't get a recession, but the market is behaving as though we just came out of one. that's how our market guest sees it, and he sees opportunities because of that. he brings three names he likes and we'll talk commodities and what's going on there. here comes nvidia. our trader is watching a very specific level, and she's prepared to make a move. she'll tell uswhat she expects that move to be today. with microsoft's backing ai tudors across the country for