toll down 8.5%. they also had earnings. lennar down 4%. >> the home builders key to the story for the interest rate pictures as well. of course, nvidia coming up in maybe just a little over an hour right now. >> very exciting. >> $2.3 trillion company. you're bullish, you have to bet that number keeps growing. >> you have to do it. >> thanks for watching power lunch. we know what the judge will be watching. >> closing bell starts right now. all right, guys, thank you so much. welcome to closing bell, i'm scott wapner, live from post nine here at new york stock exchange. this make-or-break hour begins with a make-or-break moment for this market. nvidia's earnings as dom was saying in an hour from now, rarely has one stock mattered so much. which is why over the final stretch, we'll size up what is really at stake this evening. in the meantime your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. well it looks like this. we were green, well tech was green. some of the other sectors were green as well. fed minutes though, they're a

little hawkish. market didn't like it very much. so we do have a bit of a selloff on wall street at this hour. a couple of stocks to note specifically lulu and target. well, they are down sharply after their earnings reports. those reports only raising more questions about the state of the consumer this afternoon. it does take us to our talk of the tape. where stocks are likely to go this evening in overtime. let's bring in our experts. a cnbc contributor, josh brown. ceo, cofounder. and also a cnbc contributor of the star analyst, stacey rascon with us as well of bernstein. we all know what's at stake here. josh brown, why don't you tell us as a long standing shareholder of nvidia. how are you thinking about this report tonight? >> yeah, i feel i've grown up with nvidia. it's been with me for a long time. look, i feel that this is such a hard story, believe it or not. you're up in this name, you're in this name for the thousands of percentage points.

the problem what makes it harder normally when you have a stock that goes up this much. you say to yourself, okay, it's an easy sell because the valuation has caught up with the fundamentals. now it's outdone its fundamentals. unfortunately nvidia doesn't make it that easy for you. it just has not outdone its fundamentals yet. it could happen, hasn't happened. here is the exactly i want to give you. in january of 2023, people were saying nvidia's 45 times earnings, the average semi is $18, it's too expensive. we understand it's fast growing, etc., etc., but it's up so much. here's the problem. nvidia then returned 239% for the remainder of 2023. it is up another 93% this year. so cumulatively it's up 540% since january of 2023. right. the problem now is the stock is trading at lower multiples, 34 times earnings. so it is really a difficult

stock to be long. i say that tongue and cheek because of course, it's one of the most rewarding names in the history of the stock market, but it doesn't get easier just because it has gone up. it doesn't make it simpler to sell. >> it's well set up for you, stacey. tell us about your own view of the setup. as josh points out, there's a lot going into this, a lot at stake, and maybe a lot to live up to. how do you see it? >> look, i think it is going to be fine. i can't imagine anybody is going to come off of this print feeling more bearish about the opportunity in front of them than they felt going into it. there is no way you're going to feel worse. you're going to feel better about it. and could there be a bit of a delay or air pocket in front of that if customers push out? and i guess it is possible, although i do think there is enough pin up tonight to cover over that if it were to happen. even if it did, let's say they have a bit of an air pocket because people are waiting for

black well. doesn't that get bought like hand over fist? it would make next year look much better, and next year will look great any way. i still think this is a stock that you have to own with their ups and downs, and sometimes you need a strong stomach. and the chart that josh just showed that you kind of have to be there. if you have these concerns a year ago, then you missed out, the points of growth over that period. i think you need to be there. i think you need to be there. >> stacy makes a great point, which is why there is always that expectation as we saw it when the stock got down to $750. the buyers come in because they feel like they have to be there too? >> i mean they do. and i think just a couple of what josh and stacy said, i mean it is just fact. the stock is trading at 15% below its p/e average. regardless this quarter will not define nvidia one way or another. it's going to be another solid

quartierer. jensen is going to come out and he's going to tell all these great stories. they're going to deliver the numbers. i think they're going to validate where we are in the beginning of this ten-year shift and the data centers from cpu to gpu etc., and there will be a tremendous amount of compute. you can see it with the builders building the data? s, and from microsoft, amazon, apple, meta, etc. i mean all roads lead to nvidia. but we also will see a lot of other winners. i think still within the ai play, this one is just the most straightforward play, and these numbers are going to be solid. i think though what's interesting, we will look at options market because they typically get it right. what's amazing with the company, the market is looking for a plus or minus 8% move. so think about that. that's close to a $200 billion plus or minus move for a company. so i just can't overemphasize the size of that to get that

kind of move with the stock this big. but that's where the markets will be participating. >> that's a great point you make. stacy, i know you didn't mean this so literally, however, you did use the words fine and blaze. and let's just say it's not necessarily going to be good enough. >> that's not what i meant actually. everybody is getting very worked up, and this is the most important print in history or whatever it is. i think you need to relax a little bit. i think numbers are going to be fine. the story is going to be fine. the story is getting stronger, not weaker, and as josh made the point, i made this point several times with you. the higher the numbers go on the stock and the more the stock goes up, the cheaper it's been getting. it's one of the cheapest, if not the cheapest ai plays out there. i don't have to argue with myself as the actual demand for the products or not. i know there is demand for their products and probably more than they have been able

to supply. you can look at the cap x numbers that they have been delivered from their customers recently. those are going up a ton. and the supply chain checks in terms of how much capacity is getting added. you could build to really big numbers, even bigger than where the numbers are currently. and not terribly worried about anything along that long-term story. i can't imagine anybody is going to walk out of this call feeling like that long-term story. >> hey, stacy, it's josh. i want to say thank you for the great job you've done with this name over the years. not only has the stock gotten cheaper, the company has actually gotten more efficient as an operator. this is a company that in 2021, free cash flow margins of 28%. those are now 51%. this should not be possible. there is no textbook that anyone is studying in any business school that would say this could even exist. yet here we are.

ebitda margins equaled 41% in 2021. 25% the following year, the tech crash. 53% right now, again, this should not exist. and the other point i would make is it's not a revenue growth mania type of story. it is actually really interesting. it's an operating income story. operating income grew from may of 2021 through the last quarter they reported at 103%. revenue growth has been great, but only 64%. so they're getting better at being a company. am i missing something? >> no, no, you're right. revenue is growing a ton and their spending is growing up. like you want that to go up because they need to continue that run. but the spending doesn't need to go up as much as the revenue is going. and i can't even remember. i think the optics will be up 35% or something like that this year. they are still getting a ton of leverage on that. and the mix has gotten better. i mean the company is doing mid- 70s gross margins. that's because now the

company's gross margins are effectively the margins of their data centers because it's like 80% of the revenue. you have a ton of growth. a very high gross margin revenue that could fall through the bottom line. even when you're growing the optics, they are probably growing as fast as they can and hire people. and the revenue growth is still growing much faster than that and they will drop through to give you those kinds of operating markets, absolutely. >> stacy, what about the production ramp of the hopper product shortening the lead times, so you don't risk cancellations as people then decide they are just going to wait for blackwell. >> well it is the elite times. and you know, forget nvidia for a minute. semiconductors tend to get nervous when lead times pull in because that's when you tend to see cancellations of people ordering more than they needed. in this case though, they pulled in and i don't think that we have seen anything and that they have been more than

sufficient. there is probably still access demand verses that supply. they are still concerned as they were of last quarter and still constrained on the h200, which is sort of the follow on. and then blackwell at the end of the year for any new product to launch, they will sell everything they can make and they've got all of next year to sell blackwell. pricing is going up on that. content is going up on that. i think it's going to be good. >> you know, bryn, i see stacy has a $1,000 price target, anded joe says it is going to $1,000 tonight. he shares the optimism that all of you do. what do you think really is riding on these results for the overall market? >> it is obviously becoming by the day, a bigger size in the nasdaq. i think it actually has a halo effect not on the overall market, but the ai market. i think that it will show the durability to affect them or the cloud fair. and all these other companies

that are competing in different areas. depending on, i think the numbers will be great, but the narrative that they will talk about, which i think it will be exceptional and that it will have, i think, a halo effect over these other names where they are well off their highs, and all the stocks, i think that they are well off their highs and kind of reignite that if the market is showing what they are telling. >> how do you see this, you show, shaping up as we said in the very top. you know, it's a make or break moment in many peoples minds for not only the ai trade, but at least in the near term and maybe for the nasdaq too as technology has led the markets back from the april lows. >> yeah, i would hope it's not make or break. one thing i was wrong about this year, i thought we have probably seen the best that we would see out of the nasdaq large cap tech trade. for some of those names that's been true. but we talked about the internal rotation within the

mag seven. as funny as that sounds, keep in mind each one of these companies is large enough o be their own sector, if not, asset class. that's what's kept the nasdaq where it is, making highs alongside the dow and the s&p. i don't know if it has to be make or break. one of the things i try to remind people, if you have a $940 stock, saying you think it will go to $1,000 is the equivalent of saying a $94 stock will go to $100. nobody on earth would say a $94 stock couldn't get to $100 on great numbers. now it complicates things here is the size of the market cap. last quarter they reported, they crushed the markets, expectations obviously. they added $276 billion in market cap in a single day, which i think is either a record or tied with meta big earnings speed. that should not be our expectation that it will be a normal thing that happens every time nvidia has a great report. so would i totally fall out of

my chair at $100 or $105, absolutely not. again, reduce these numbers from $950 to $1,000, to $95 to $100, and this becomes much more feasible. >> you know, stacy, can you kind of take us inside your mind and how you think about ratings and price targets. you know, you're almost up against your $1,000. i can see the reiteration of the outperformance that's good. but how do you think about price target moves? >> yeah, so it is a function of two things. the earnings of the horizon. with every quarter you're moving your horizon outward. if you have growth in those numbers, that could take things up or down. you've got the earnings themselves, so those are going up or down. and many of the multiples, which is a combination of the expected growth and the narrative and everything else. but it is some kind of combination of those three

factors. mechanically like our sort of framework is it's suppose to be a relative 12-month market that's relative to the market. in theory, they are suppose to outperform the market by 15% or more and the underperformance is by 15% or more. and between now and reality, that you have to make the market call here. we do the best we can, i guess, but it really is those three things. how do you feel about the horizon? >> and you said sort of data centers, the story. i think we know that. the way we're sending, over 80% of nvidia's sales will go to cloud data center. where does that number move? does it continue to stay as strong as 80%? how should i view that as someone watching this stock, watching the fundamentals of this business and where ai demand continues to go?

>> so 80% of the revenues are data center. that's not all necessarily like hyperscale. i think they said last quarter, more than half were large cloud vendors. that's kind of where it was. but look this year you can go to meta, google, amazon, aws, and microsoft. i think their cap spend is going up 50% this year probably. look, it will probably go up next year and beyond that. we're in a world now where these guys have to spend now. there's a longer-term question that means you have to return these investments. and so you need to build business models that could eventually drive revenue or save the cost ideally. clearly there was no return on these assets and the whole thing would come crumbling down. i think they're getting returns on it where they clearly have a line of sight. and that shows some level where

the revenue opportunity is this and the business opportunities are there. >> returns he's referring to is the spend on compute. it's hard for me to see just sitting where i sit and talking to people i talk to. it is hard to see that pullback in spending on compute happening right now. there is so much enthusiasm. silicon valley start-ups need to spend a lot on the compute as do fortune 500 companies. it's just like that's the part of the story that has to hold up. most of that interestingly is outside of nvidia's control. but this is how it always is with the component suppliers. from that perspective, they are not so unique from other great stories in semis or software that we have seen before. they really need that demand to stick around. >> it's unique if nothing else that we think one particular stock could have an outsized impact on how the overall market may trade in the days, if not, weeks following this report. stacy, thank you very much. we'll see what happens. i know we'll talk to you

afterwards. i want to kick the market around with bryn and josh. bryn, we're in the middle of the selloff. the market rolled a little bit on the release of the fed minute where certainly hawkish. as steve liesman said in the very outset of delivering the news of the minutes, he called it unoutedly. the point being these minutes reflect the conversation that was being had at the time. it was hot and cold since. it's one of the reasons why the market is where they are today, right around the record highs. how do you see things right now? >> i would ignore the minutes. it's backwards looking. they're looking at the same data that we are all looking at. i think ultimately when i look out over the next six months, to me the last man standing or the last one standing within the cpi is the equivalence, right? it's the third -- >> which is completely made up.

>> right, they survey the people and it is absurd. so when you actually look at zillow and some other industries, which have rolled over a long time ago, but there's about a 16 to 18-month lag. i think you're going to see oer come down over the next six months. that could be incredibly deflation to the overall number that you'll see. that's why you'll see the cpi number come down. so disregard those minutes. i wouldn't make too much of them. and that is when we would have the new data. >> sure, i do want to bring a comment to all of you that from david and the goldman sachs ceo, josh, i'll get your reaction to this as they were speaking at the club lunch, where he says he sees zero rate cuts by the end of the year. zero rate cuts this year. would that be a problem for

stocks in any way? i know people say they don't need the rate cuts that the economy is strong enough. but if he's correct, what is that going to mean? >> and as you know, i've been ridiculed for this. but the higher rates are actually fueling spending the economy. i've been one of the people saying that. rick reader has been saying that. what i was saying in november, i stand by that. i don't necessarily think lowering rates would somehow lead to this explosion in inflation. i think the amount of spending that's being gendered by the wealth effect from wealthy boomers or let's just say the top 20% of the wealth distribution are people with stocks, real estate, houses, now cash balances. all four of those categories are booming. look at 401k balances. and all of a sudden 10% of the labor force gets a raise. that's literally not how it works. didn't we learn anything from

the last couple of years? overnight rates just do not have that power. scott, to answer your question, that is the power all the way down either. and now i think you're going to get them because i'm watching some of these private reefs start to blow up. that'll be in the headlines now for the next six months. from the perspective, you're not going to weed anymore fed minutes about tightening when you start to see the negative side. that's not going to be what it is going forward. >> if nothing else opinions change somewhat rapidly in the kind of environment we are in. and i would ask you all to recall the conversation that we had and that was two weeks ago where he suggested you could get a rate cut or two this year and unless they did not prove

that they were moving sufficiently back fast enough, which you could stay where we are, so we will keep our eye on that and track the move in this market throughout the rest of the final stretch, leading to nvidia. bryn, thank you. and to kristina partsinevelos now for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. kristina? >> we'll start with target shares because they're lower after reporting earnings missed in year over year sales declined by about 3%. consumers bought fewer everyday goods such as paper towels, and pulled back on discretionary items like apparel and home decor. management pointing to a cautious consumer, why the stock is down over 7% right now. lululemon announced the departure of their product chief. slashing the company's price target to $385. shares are trading at $297. as it faces more competition from athleta, carhart. >> all right, we'll see you in a bit. up next, the new apple just a few weeks ago, josh brown made a major call claiming one

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welcome back. amazon has big plans to give alexa an overhaul. kate rooney is here with the scoop you broke. >> good to see you. amazon is giving alexa a major upgrade this year and will add a monthly subscription to offset some of the costs, according to people familiar with amazon's plans. those sources telling me amazon's new version of the now decade old voice assistant coming later this year would potentially position alexa to better compete with a wave of these new generative ai power

chat bots. sources telling me it's not going to be a part of amazon's prime subscription. the pricing hasn't been figured out yet. amazon was, of course, an early mover in voice driven assistance back in 2014, but those capabilities really haven't kept up with some of the recent leaps we've seen in ai. sources do tell me the voice based chat box from openai and google recently have increased some of the pressure on the alexa division internally to amazon, which did announce significant layoffs last november. amazon declined to comment, but addressed it today at the annual shareholder meeting saying their vision is to build the world's best personal assistant pointed to the 500 million alexa enabled devices out there. as jassy said we have a chance to be a leader here and says they are in the process of building more expansive ai model to run under alexa. scott, back to you. >> speaking of the meeting real quick, rejecting all proposals. any of that a surprise? >> no, widely expected. these range from things like

esg to more oversight in terms of their labor practices. that was sort of the consensus going into the meeting. i think some of the more interesting stuff we got out of it was a little bit of the color from andrew jassy including the focus on alexa. he kind of repeated what he talked about in his shareholder letter, but those votes, at least, not necessarily a surprise. >> got it. all right, kate, thank you. good scoop as well. of course, kate rooney joining us on closing bell. josh brown is still with us, the person who said of amazon, it is the new apple. he said that a few weeks back. what did you mean? >> this was -- so apple had a massive run when people realized the stability of ash flow and the ability to buy back or pay a dividend or both. they had those things. as a result, it was the stock to own. this year i think that story belongs to amazon. they've been growing revenue at 9%. and back to the third quarter

of 2021. they have now completely lapped all of the issues with the pandemic and the excess spending. we don't have to rehash the whole thing. now it is not overbought. it's 5% below, all-time highs, not 52-week highs. this is it. it is a large stock and sounds silly to say, but i think it is underowned by both growth managers and large cap managers in general because of what a difficult time they had coming out of the pandemic. and that's the thing i think is about to change. so it's not crazy overbought. 17% above its $200 day. that day is rising. and i think it can consolidate here for a little while, but ultimately this looks like it wants $250. >> you know, it went through a pretty good period of underperformance, right? >> yes, almost three to four years. >> and there is this idea that's pretty remarkable to me too that the mega caps that got

really leaner got really meaner, and they have been rewarded. i mean meaner from a stock performance, right? and worse year in the stock's history of 2022 and the best year in 2023, why? because they told them to get fit and they did. and amazon needed to do that too. it was an interesting lift that jassy had to do when bezos left. >> yeah, largely people would acknowledge now that this has been accomplished. there would be people about recognizing it before meta, etc., but that is not important and what is important is this company is now growing profits at a faster rate than most of its peers in mega cap tech. like this is how i feel and this is what's happening right now. and arguably because of the structure of the company, they have more to pull than any of their other peers, in order to keep that up. now it's exciting, they won't

move the needle. it is not that important. it's important because they continue to innovate. the bigger story though will be aws. i think they have the right approach for the generative ai era. bedrock ai, the aws, ai environment is going to be open source is the wrong word and it will be bring your own program and we will host all of this. it's a $100 billion runway business inside amazon. it's the primary engine of both the earnings and growth rate. and i think that they will will have it right for the era. they are not worried so much about launching their own llm that will compete with 50 others. instead they're going to focus on making sure that their environment is the environment people want to keep paying for more and more compute as different applications are built. i like that bet if you're an investor. you don't have to bet on someone else's technology. you could bet that someone else is going to win. >> it is great having you for

the first 30. that's josh brown joining us here. thank you for that. up next another big guest. light street capital glen kacher is back, telling us which names he's betting on right now. where he sees his so-called ai stocks heading from here just after the break. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley

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we're back on closing bell. nasdaq pulling back after hitting a record high earlier today. investors bracing for nvidia's earnings tonight in overtime.

concerns grow about the sustainability of this ai driven rally. joining us now is glen kacher. he's the founder and ceo of light street capital. it's good to see you again. welcome back. i'm curious, are you nervous? are you confident? how would you describe yourself ahead of nvidia as a shareholder? >> yeah, we're feeling really confident. we have been investors in nvidia steadily since the fall of 2022. and we saw the beginning of this ai buildout happening then. you know what scott, it is still going on in a very rapid pace. right now it's pretty clear that we are experiencing the period where demand is still greatly outstripping their supply. you know, i think that you would see in these buildouts when the architecture of computing kind of changes every 20 or so years. you see a rapid five-year investment cycle happening. then ultimately a 20-year cycle that we will continue to

rebuild and replace over trillion dollars of data center infrastructure. so as a cycle that ages, we will see the ups and downs surely, but right now, we think we're in the really sweet part of that investment cycle. >> i think most people would agree with you, which is why it is not a great surprise. and that will lead to my question of how much do you think is already in the stock given what you've said and the broad consensus that your view is the correct one? >> right. look, i think you'll be surprised. here is a company that is the most prominent display of ai. they are greatly leading the race here with over, you know, let's say 85%, 90% market share. i think that is to be conservative. and it's roughly in a nasdaq kind of multiple. and it will trade it well less than a half to the growth

ratio. and it is one of the greatest investment cycles that we have seen since the beginning of the internet. so we don't focus on one-day trading, you know, short term profits. but we would look at this and say gosh, it looks really tasty over the next several years. i mean if you look out to 2025 numbers, it is pretty clear or it should be pretty clear that those need to come up quite a bit. we will expect tonight, things to probably beat the wall street number by a couple billion. and if you look out the next year, i think numbers are way too low for this company. >> you know, it was an interesting week obviously on the ai front. we've got stuff from alphabet, microsoft, and spoke to one investor yesterday who -- who almost described, you know, what microsoft had to deliver

this week as a non-event. it's somewhat disappointing. how would you view microsoft verses alphabet considering you own both. one sort of controlled the narrative, still figures to be in the leadership seat. the other is being alphabet has done quite well in their own right. and that is not going anywhere. >> and it is in similar positions, where they are trying to build more software solutions for their customers and get those ai revenues going. but you know, there is a misperception always i think in the investment community that things happen very fast. it takes years to build out great pieces of software to install them and to tune them and to get them running on the customer's data and to get the returns from them. so i think both companies in their respected areas are in

this period. some investors, they will lose patience. that's the tension of investors in this segment that, you know, they want to see those revenues today and it will take time. i think they are doing a good job and i wouldn't call their development that. we've seen caps over estimates for 2024 up 50% for microsoft as they are building for the demand of their customer base to use ai. and the combination of meta, google, amazon, and microsoft, they're going to spend almost $200 billion in 2024 up in that. they will spend almost 50% as a group. 45% more than what they thought they were going to spend. and that is a year and a half ago. so there is an investment period that you have to keep

patience in that third period in order to make the money from the long term from this amazing trend that we are seeing. >> do you still think that the tech is going to be the outperformer? >> absolutely. you know, if you look at it, there are only a handful of companies that will have the capital, the customers, and the customer's data and that gravity that they will bring in order to provide these solution. they aren't cheap. and if you look, you know, you're listening to each conference, quarterly conference call that you will hear mark zuckerberg from facebook, and microsoft, elon from tesla, of course, larry from oracle. publicly appealing to jensen, the ceo of nvidia, to get more chips. the nvidia chip is the most strategic piece of the ai solution. so i see nvidia being, you know, the biggest winner from that infrastructure buildout.

then i see the hyperscaler companies and the very large internet platforms as being the only ones that can invest at a scale to really bring these solutions to their large customer base. >> and you do own that. so you must have some level of confidence that, you know, nvidia has such a head start or a large lead. but amd has ot some ideas of their own in terms of the kind of chip production they could do? >> yeah, they will be a second source. everyone will need a second source, right? we also own broadcom that will make the trips for everybody except intel and samsung pretty much. all the digitals that are made. and when you look at the stock growing, you know, 30%, trading for 20 times earnings. also at the epic?

in terms of making the world's greatest chip of this buildout being an incredible stock to own an absolute gift to investors, and we will really see a great opportunity across that infrastructure category. >> we'll talk to you soon. i appreciate your time. it's nice to see you again. it's glen kacher. >> great to see you. coming up, shares of the vaccine makers are popping into today's sessions. we'll tell you what's behind those moves when closing bell comes back after this quick break.

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we're back watching the shares of vaccine makers. what is moving today? >> hey scott, we're watching shares of moderna, pfizer, and other vaccine makers. these are all higher today after two new con numbered cases of bird flu in humans. reporting a case on a farm worker. this is the second case in the u.s. linked to the dairy cow outbreak, the third ever in the country. earlier today australia confirmed its first case of bird flu in humans. now the cdc today is saying the threat to humans is still very low, but we checked in with the companies and they are keeping an eye on this. moderna is studying a pandemic flu vaccine, and curevac is testing a shot specifically for bird flu. now pfizer today is also revealing another $1.5 billion

in cost cuts. that's in addition to the $4 billion it announced last fall. this latest round will scale back manufacturing that it increased during the pandemic. and so again, we'll keep an eye on what they are doing there, but they are pulling back after the big increase. scott? >> understood. angelica, thank you. still ahead, it's not just nvidia that investors will be watching in overtime. remember snowflake? well its results hit the top of the hour as well. a rundown of what to watch for coming up. ckosing bell is coming right ba. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more -

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we'll get you there. up next we're getting you set up for nvidia earnings in ot. the numbers hitting today around 4:20 eastern. the king metrics to look out for. we'll tell you what they are as te weakyou inside the market zone next. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere. i am here.

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ingredients in many clean energy and defense technologies. energy fuels. so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. we're in the closing bell market zone now. cnbc senior market commentator michael santoli here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. seema mody looking at what to expect from snowflake when it

reports in overtime today. and, of course, the countdown to nvidia, the earnings. that's on kristina partsinevelos, back with what to watch for when those numbers hit the tape. mike, your thoughts? >> yeah, the reaction algorithms are preset, whatever the number is. and it is more than 10% for nvidia, so be it. i think aside from that, what is interesting today is a bit of a reminder of some of the other undercurrents. the market has been holding together fine. taking it below the surface. but the response of the minutes, the hint of hawkishness, maybe the financial conditions and that they are not tight enough as we know it's old news and that it has been more of a benign. but there is some worry again. so that to me is the issue. the market wants to take it as that soft landing stuff. the question is can we take it for granted that that is the case? and it was perfectly great to launch it much higher. we will see what nvidia has to say. >> target among the blowups

today. lulu, ugly. >> william and sonoma traded down pretty good numbers, so we'll see. >> seema mody, what about snowflake? what should we watch out for? >> well scott, snowflake is weaker than expected for 2025. they sent the stock down sharply. expectations have come down with the shares off 27% in the last three months. investors will want an update from the new ceo. and ramaswamy following reports that the company is looking to acquire a smaller ai company. and the cloud data management company is doing to capture more demand from the suite with the generative ai products it's been working on. citi is cautiously positive with a buy rating of a $240 price target. and the target is $210, the stock trading at $163 ashore. >> all right, seema mody, we shall see. all right, do you feel like this is your super bowl or what? >> okay, maybe, maybe.

the chip roll is exciting and this will add to it. with nvidia, really the big question mike eluded to is the magnitude of the earnings beaten guide. for the past four quarters in 2023, nvidia beat revenue by an average of 20%. of course, maintaining the momentum is going to be hard. expectations are around $24.64 billion for revenues in q1. obviously it could go higher. that is still 231% higher than just last year alone. the drivers, you talked about it, promise spending from hyperscalers. amd raising their ai revenue guidance, which is a good sign for nvidia. taiwan chip exports were higher, and that correlates with nvidia. but we can't ignore anticipation for the name is high with the run up in the stock. for the guide to come in at least $1 billion higher than $26.6 billion. so the whisper number, whatever you want to call it is $28 billion for the guide. if that doesn't happen, some will take risk off the table, but i want our viewers to

remember jensen huang will be giving a speech at a keynote at compu tech, expected to make news there. then the launch of the next generation chips in a few quarters, which helps the ai story stay intact for nvidia, even if they don't guide, you know, $1 billion over and $2 billion over the quarter in revenues. >> i don't know if you heard stacy rasgon say he's not worried. what lies ahead, right? >> yes. >> we shall see. kristina, thank you. we'll see you, of course, in overtime, kristina partsinevelos. >> if you've been a semiconductor analyst for a decade, and your problems are usually the slices of gross margin, and vastly reciprocal dynamics in memory chips. i mean the runway of nvidia looks like it's a cake walk, right? it's just nothing, but piling on demand on top of demand. so i get why stacy would feel that way, even if the market has been fixated on this and added to their business over

the last couple of years. >> we had a ate day reminder and you eluded to it today of the the issue that hangs over everything. it's the rates, inflation, and this and that. now we will see with nvidia, whether it will get our focus back on the ball of why this market is where it is. why we were able to come back from the april low, led by technology, and these themes of ai being prevalent, which you heard there alphabet and microsoft. and now here with nvidia. >> it finishes up the chapter of the story. obviously you've heard from every other company feeding into this theme. so i do think whether it goes up or down and it is one thing. what you should remember, that it will speak at these conferences. and that they will fold back to the long-term story. that you always keep their eye on the long-term vision. it has been published since 1999, a lot of the times they

felt like they didn't have it in the bag. so i don't think that they will take it for much granted and the moment of truth if you will, it's nearly upon us. >> you've got a great setup coming with morgan and john in ot. well stocks losing some ground on the certainty. but attention now turns to the big event that's coming if 20 minutes. that is the score credit on wall street. but the action is just getting started. welcome to closing bell overtime, i'm morgan brennan with jon fortt. >> you know what the moment is. i mean it's nvidia results. and those results are just minutes away. could set the tone for the entire market. that's how big this potentially is. we'll bring you the numbers and analysis as soon as they cross. and an all-star lineup of insiders ready to break down