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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  May 23, 2024 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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we're up against it today, so quick "final trades." >> archer daniels. >> copper miners >> josh? >> nbaq. >> "the exchange" is now see you on "closing bell." >> thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. the market is still seeing that first rate cut in september, but our economist says don't wait that long, it a es going to happen in july we'll ask him what now makes him so confident plus, no signs of an ai slowdown nvidia is crushing it with growth up more than 400% from last year. and that's good news for this company. nvidia and allthe big tech giants are clients the ceo joins us live ahead. there are zin influencers
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and now a rewards program. we'll look at tobacco free nicotine pouches how phillip morris is capitalizing on them but before that, let's get over to dominic chu with the numbers. s >> we have lost some steam due to the slowdown in shares of boeing right now, the dow industrials at 39,293, off about 376 points, or 1% downside the s&p 500, i will put a star up here, because earlier today, we did hit a record intraday high, but it's 5306, flat on the session right now. and the nasdaq also gets a star. it's holding on to gains, but it did also hit an intraday record. up 85 points we all know the reason why, that's a big part of that story, nvidia we take the next approach to what's happening in the marketplace. nvidia keeps climbing towards
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session highs. in fact, so much so that it's well above $1,000 a share, $104 per share, up 11%. and to put that in perspective, at this point, it's way over now $250 billion in market cap in one day. that means it's added just about as market value as the entire market value of advanced microdevices, that stock down 2% super mike rowe, up about 6% enterprise technology, up 6.5% and equinix losing steam, but some of these trusts that focus on data centers have seen some strength today so we'll see whether those nvidia coat tails have more room and the department of justice just made it official, we heard about it for a while, but they have launched an anti-trust probe and lawsuit against livenation, the parent company of ticketmaster.
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they think they have a monopoly, they allege that, and will bring a suit to maybe break the company up back over to you >> down 7.5% dom, thank you meanwhile, the market may be pricing in a september rate cut, but jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon warns inflation is stickier than people think and a hard landing is possible. let's get reaction to that for my next guest who believe the next move is still easing. joining me now is brian weinstein and greg daco. welcome to both of you greg, do you really think july that's six weeks from now. >> i think there's still a possibility they will adopt easing cycle in july the reason is essentially you still have disinflation momentum in the pipeline. you have easing, demand growth, consumers are being a little
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more cautious with their outlays. wage growth is moderating. you have an environment which there's still further represent disinflation to come through and then you have stronger productivity growth. we're not too far from 2.5% when you look at pce gauges, headline and core are moving in that direction. i think that will be a signal for the fed to consider easing monetary policy gradually, very cautiously but i still think that a july onset is a possibility >> they usually like to telegraph their moves. do you think that's what you've heard? >> i think there's a risk here that we may see a delay in that call the most recent communication from governor waller in particular stating that the onset may come later in the year is a signal that this may be pushed back. so there is a downside risk that we see a delay in the fed easing
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but in this environment, our view is that while we have to consider the fact that prudence is very important, policymakers have to consider the broad landscape and have more of a forward looking perspective in terms of the potential slowdown that may come faster than they expect, in terms of inflation and also importantly in terms oh of what's happening on the labor market front we are seeing signs that labor market is slowing, and that's sol policymakers should be attentive to >> that's the classic scenario a lot of us have been expecting, but we still have a growing economy. signs of growth, i mean, what jamie dimon said, the worst outcome is stagflation, higher rates and recession. he's not the only one thinking that right now there's a lot of smart people on the buy side placing bets in that direction slow down, but one where you still end up with higher interest rates >> there's more going on than
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just inflation growth has been very strong, and listen, i don't think it matters whether the fed is at 5%, 5.5%, i don't think it will change the dynamic of inflation and the fiscal deficits. so if i'm the fed, i'm worried about jamie dimon's comments more on the growth side. but i'm surprised they haven't changed the dialogue it's not next month's cpi or the month after that i looked at five-year inflation forwards they're lower than they were from 2008 to 2018. there's no inflation fear in the market we have a shock because inflation broke through a range. we're not used to prices going up, but the fed has to calibrate rates to make sure that growth doesn't plummet. >> the expected annual inflation starting five years from today so kind of like the longer -- not long-term but -- >> you get the energy prices or short-term dynamics that says according to the market, inflation will be 2.6%
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that's a good outcome in terms of where we are. so if i'm the fed -- >> do you think that's acceptable to them >> i do. if you look at 15 years of data, they've had lower rates every time inflation was here. so i don't think it's enough for them to say they're fighting inflation, and they're not going to calibrate this was the right fed funds rate when inflation was going to 8% with inflation down here, all they want to do, they don't want to go back to 3 or 2, they just want to take the fed funds rate down a little bit to give help to the consumers and others to give lower rates and keep that hard landing from happening. >> it is weird we haven't seen more of a slowdown in the economy. maybe it is ai, it does feel like 1995-esque at this point. if that's the case, it would hardly argue for them to cut rates. >> does that mean rates are going wildly lower this year i think it is not. the fed eases a little bit this year, and ten-year notes are
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around the 5% range. if you're going to break the range is 6%, not 3%. i don't think inflation goes back below 2%, and i think we have a fiscal deficit, causing premium and government bonds to go up. that means corporate bonds do well we're seeing the beginning of this story so i agree that rates going up from here will slow things down. let's be honest, ten-year notes have been around 4.5% the last part of the year, things seem okay to me >> this isn't the outcome, i think if i understand your take on this, greg, we get a classic slowing economy, ten years back at 3%, all is well but not so well with the world. >> we have seen a slowdown in the labor market, which is the main pillar of economic activity that's going to be the key driver of how consumers spend and how strong the economy is, and that will drive-in nation nar pressures.
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so what i'm saying do po policymakers want to squeeze out factors that are beyond their control and squeeze out the rest in terms of ensuring lower inflation on those other sectors by generating weaker growth? that is the tradeoff that policymakers have to discuss i think they should. they departed a little bit from their extremely data dependent view of every single cpi and jobs report and adopt more of a forward looking perspective as they anticipate where growth will be and how to calibrate monetary policy to address the employment mandate and inflation. >> if you both were on that committee trying to look forward, you would two different views of what to do. what choice do we have, right? other than to look to markets, i guess. they don't really want to do that >> by the way, i think they're going to ease a little bit
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it doesn't change my world view terribly if they hang out here if they hike, we have a whole set of other problems. i think they're trying to cut off that tail that they did too much for the pieces that are dissent gating in the background consumer and employment are weaker so you can raise rates again later. so i think they ease now but i would not expect the committee to be unanimous, and i don't think we're starting a big easing cycle >> quick last word on what the next et raiteration looks like h supply story >> i think we start to get it, but it will not be part to have election when we're done with this at the beginning of november, i don't think we'll feel better about where the deficit spending is going. so we have moved real rates higher and that causes the next leg up
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in interest rates. i don't think it's immediate but i think it's coming. >> investment grade is better than the u.s. government, more reliable those spreads go each tighter. >> i think it's a crazy story but i think it's going to happen >> who wouldn't bet on apple paying you back? >> i they do have an advantage, but that conversation is going to be a big story as investment grade spreads continue to tighten. >> thank you both. really appreciate it let's pivot now to the housing market new home sales dropping nearly 5% last month as americans continue to grapple with higher prices and mortgage rates. diana olick brings us that story. the builders have been very strong this year, diana. >> maybe not so much today not only did we see home sales tank in april, but march sales were also revised down significantly. now, it's all about affordability or a lack thereof. mortgage rates in april started
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just below 7% and shot up to 7.5% this is counted by signed contracts during the month, so it's the best indicator of how much mortgage rates are affecting buyers in realtime add to that the medium price of a new home sold in april was $433,000, up 4% from april of 2023, due to the mix of homes selling, so it skews that number higher but those buyers are not influenced by mortgage rates because a lot use cash or they have the cushion on that monthly payment. the supply really jumped much higher to a 9.1 month supply toll brothers said this week in their earnings that they're building more speck homes, and we're seeing more supply on the existing home supply so you have to believe that prices have to come down a little bit so far, we're not seeing it. the big builders are all down slightly they recovered at noon when the freddie mac mortgage rate report
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said rates were down below 7%, but rates jumped to 7.17% this morning after that bmi data. so i hate to throw cold water on all that, kelly. >> it's fascinating about what you said about nine-month supply of new homes i'm seeing for sale homes, i don't want to say everywhere, but there's been a change in the inventory situation and what will the ramification bs >> when you get more supply on the market, prices have to come back a little bit, but it's where the supply is. we're seeing a lot of supply on the high end of the market and very little supply on the low end of the market. and so where you have people who can afford to buy, it will be in that $250,000 to $500,000 price range. and new homes come at a price premium, so it's harder to afford versus the same type of xooising home. so it's where that supply is and
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is it affordable >> and they're getting snapped up quickly, even with rates where they are diana, thank you so much coming up, the bar was high, and nvidia vaulted over it once again. thank goodness for the broader market the stock has gone from just $300 to over $1,000 in the past year, but it's not $1,000 for long and the company is uniquely positioned to reap the benefits of that growth the ceo of this mystery chart joins us to talk about how they're a beneficiary. and this stock upgraded today because it's barking up the tree we're joined with a name and why our analyst sees a 30% upside from here with a stock up 50% this year. stay with us "the exchange" is back after this (♪♪)
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welcome back to "the exchange." shares of nvidia are up 11% now to 1,056, over a thousand for the first time after delivering blockbuster earnings a key driver, data center. the business group, you know, just 427% year on year that's good news for my next guest who counts some of the top hyper scalers. digital rearealty's ceo joins m.
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andrew, welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> as we see nvidia putting up these reports, what's happening in the background with data centers all over the country like yours >> here at digital, we're the home for first cloud, now ai so the physical manifestation, where the gpus and cpus live in 300 data centers around the world. we have had some great momentum the last several quarters. a handful of those quarters ago, a third of our signs were from ai, and we just capped off the first quarter this year with record new signings with 50% contribution from ai, including major collaborations with the likes of oracle supporting their enterprise customers with both cloud and ai use cases >> in q1, as i understand it from the call, around 50% of your signings were ai related.
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maybe you can talk about what your platform offerings are there. northern virginia seeing an increase in rate largest signing was in that market other significant signing globally, i mentioned the u.s., but this is happening everywhere what is your power bill like these days >> so, we're in a 50 plus metropolitan areas around the world. we've been in business for 20 years and at the forefront investing and innovating in our infrastructure for our customers. northern virginia has been the center of the internet, and now cloud ai can add to that list. on that part -- that's our largest market we're bringing on line 100 mega watt capacity blocks for our customers and leasing them quickly. that market is one where we have leaned in to support the utility company and got innovative
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>> talk for one more second about that so you are partnering with -- who is the utility provider and they're using solar there? when you put on these mega watt projects, are we talking nat gas and fossil fuels and new energy, all of that? >> so, in that particular instance, dominion is the regulated utility provider we helped them land a critical substation to alleviate a pinch point in transmission into a critical part of the world we at digital are believers in sustainably growing our foot print. we have been recognized for that in terms of numerous accolades we have close to 1 p.5 giga wat of purchase agreements that create solar and wind farms. but we're normally getting the
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transmission from the grid in the major areas. >> how do you stay ahead of the competition, especially which requires a lot of cap ex and also, everyone has to be sitting around going, i should just open a data center these days just talk about your motives >> so we've been at this business for a long time here. so we didn't wake up last night or last year and said that was a nice trade or trend to invest in we've spent billions and billions of dollars, and today our installed base is 2.5 giga watts. so two times the amount of capacity to future proof growth. we're providing connectivity solutions for customers, we're supporting 5,000 customers around the world as well as now new ai verticals,
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which are part of our last quarter. >> microsoft unveiled the ai pc, and the whole idea is that you're doing more of the compute here locally instead of up in the cloud. could we be at some kind of inflection point, or a flattening out where the massive data center growth that we have seen may be in the decade to come, maybe not tomorrow, but that curve starts to flatten, and maybe some of that compute gets done on laptops or work computers a little more. >> i think the innovation we're seeing, whether the copilot, is just the tip of the iceberg here and we're going to see incremental growth, and whatever comes next will need to reside of our full walls in our computing environments that we have been innovating for our customers, in addition to whatever magic happens on their device and we're seeing that from
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numerous customers looking to grow the capacity with dij gita around the world >> andrew power, thank you for joining us we appreciate you checking in. >> thanks for having me. the nvidia halo, shares of vertiv, hitting a new high today. here are those details >> we are all over it, trying to ride this ai wave. vertiv hit an all-time high. the ceo said that he was very bullish on long-term data center demand and the need for increased cooling requirements for the new graphic processing units, and analysts estimate 75% of vertiv's revenue comes from data centers the stock is up 120% this year, trading at 42 times earnings and its direct competitor
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hitting a new all-time high today. they're looking to capitalize on ai, and it's seen one of the reasons dupont plans to spin out its les electrification business software is increasingly in high demand, managing the input and output of electricity. and then there's hvac companies. this specific stock has underperformed, so we're seeing some interest from those activists. >> ac has never been so hot. so due point has confirmed that nvidia is a customer >> nvidia is a customer of dupont's electrification business we've been seeing so many spinoffs, and these companies will tell you one of the reasons they're take thing approach is because wall street can't
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appreciate all the different work they're doing with water purification, chip designs, just so much happening here they're hoping with this split, they can unlock shareholder value. >> thank you for bringing that to us. we're not done with the ai universe just yet. as journalists are raising concerns about the rise of ai. news corp announced a $100 million licensing deal with openai julia has that story >> that's right. news corp and openai are teaming up, signing a reportedly five-year deal that will pay the publisher more than $250 million over five years to use content from news corp's publications. although we had no official confirmation of that price tag openai will use content from its publications and archives to train its technology into answering questions. news corp will share journalistic expertise to ensure
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the highest standards are present. openai ceo sam altman saying - >> this deal follows similar deals with the associated press and the financial times. these deals are in contrast to "the new york times" lawsuit against openai, which alleges that the publication content was illegally used to train ai's tools. they have raised concerns because chatgbt answers questions on its own platform, publisher also get less traffic than from traditional searches, putting subscription revenue that was advertising as well as prescription revenue further at risk >> it's interesting to think,
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once you strike a licensing deal, could that be something that grows more valuable over time, just looking at news corp last year, their net income for the whole year was $187 million. so this is more than that. even -- i mean, it could really hov the needle >> the question is if it drives traffic back to these publication. many publications like "the wall street journal," i subscribeto them, and i get access but the question is, are they going to be taking content that would be behind and sharing with people who are not subscribing or say click on this headline and go to the website and subscribe. so there's a lot we haven't seen in practice here, but is this incremental revenue or does it cannibalize the core business? >> very good point julia, thank you very much still to come, shares of this company are up 21% today.
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they just posted their first-ever billion dollar fiscal year and saw a 77% boost in sales. and can't get your hands on wegovy or ozempic? there's another product making waves, but it's nowh yt atou would expect we'll explain when "the exchange" returns.
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well invested, well protected. welcome back to "the exchange." despite nvidia's big gain today with shares up 11%, it's only helping the nasdaq stay in the green with a half percent gain the s&p is down three points and the dow down nearly 400. here are some of the movers this hour we're watching nvidia aside. boeing down almost 7% and that explains the dow's weakness today. speaking at a conference, the cf o'brian west said not only will the company burn through its cash and deliveries will not improve in the second quarter. that has shares and the dow under pressure next, vf corps lower by 4%, after they posted an unexpected loss the stock has gotten a number of downgrades this week, including one from williams trading. the stock is at $12 right now. and finally, ellen f beauty, up%
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this year, after they posted their first billion dollar fiscal year. but elf warns that growth may be coming to an end this year jim cramer will dig into that with the ceo tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern over to kate rogers for a cnbc news update. kate >> norfolk southern will pay a $15 million fine over last year's derailment in ohio as part of a federal settlement that's just one part of a more than $300 million deal they will also pay $57 million reimbursement to the epa for response costs and more for future cleanup and to set up a $25 million health care fund for the community. it comes two days after a judge signed off on the company's $600 million class action settlement with the residents a joint press conference with
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joe biden and kenya's president is expected to start shortly earlier, biden welcomed him to the white house this morning for a state visit. during the three-day visit, the president will designate the east african nation as a non-nato ally. and will police discipline the police officer who arrested scotty scheffler for not activating his body camera authorities did not provide additional information about prosecution. >> kate, thank you very much coming up, there's some new potential on wall street three different firms weighing in on pet stocks and we'll tell you which name is barking up the right tree that's when "the exchange" returns.
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welcome back to "the exchange." the pet stocks getting some love from the street today. petco added to the best ideas list by woof after they had a stronger than expected guidance. shares up 10%, putting it at $3 a share after a 69% decline. and freshpet getting nods, the shares upgraded to buy edward lewis made the call and joins us now edward, great to see you welcome. >> thank you very much, kelly. >> how much -- this feels like now like a very well-known thesis i mean, well-known success story. so how much more room do the shares have to grow?
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>> yeah. so certainly the notion of the premium part of the cash did continue to do well. the fastest growing pet boone is in american with millennials they want to feed their pets the kind of food their parents fed them, the kind of food they would eat. so freshpet has capitalized on that trend so it's done very well the opportunity i see, kelly, is that after a really tough time during the pandemic and coming out of the pandemic, they really have to, i guess, place significant challenges around building new facilities down in texas, to dealing with commodity costs. now many of those issues are behind them. now the position is ready to be on the front foot and start delivering and going after more of a main stream opportunity and starting to get more leverage
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down there in the model. so start delivering the kind of profits that they have promised but haven't been able to generate >> that's interesting. that's what investors would want to make sure is going to be part of the story here, not just a great growth story, we've all seen a million of those, but one that can be profitable i like that you cover freshpet with typical consumer product companies. we're seeing inflation create a lot of resistance to taking price at this point. why is freshpet immune from that >> let's be honest, freshpet is not a main stream product. it's in probably 12 million households that doubled from the pandemic from 6 million in terms of household penetration. so there are around 70 million households in america, getting up to 12 million pedigree is in like 23, 24 million. so it's still relatively niche
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in terms of that regard. and i think it's a lifestyle choice people are making, and they are choosing to take freshpet so ultimately, in terms of pushback around pricing, they took pricing aggressively the last couple of years, they didn't necessarily see the kind of impact people might have thought. it's continued to grow volumes even with the aggressive pricing they took. so this is a lifestyle choice that people are choosing to make, and ultimately they're very happy to feed their dog freshpet and to a certain extent, the price takes care of itself >> oh let's pause it that six months from now we're in a consumer slowdown. you've got mcdonald's, starbucks, clorox, palm olive. do you think that freshpet is going to be relatively immune from a consumer slowdown >> yes, i think we saw it in the last couple of years where a lot of pricing was being taken they didn't see the impact
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others have seen buffalo, they're declining their pet food business is declining at the moment. down 2% the last quarter, freshpet's growth is up 31%. so we haven't seen freshpet to market and merchandise, you know, $100 million of advertising this year. a presence in 34,000 stores across america they're in a much stronger position than they were a few years ago to tell their story. and having addressed many of these operation issues has helped them. broader consumer story, yeah, definitely if you're mcdonald's, you have to do a better job on value. they're hopefully doing that with the $5 menu they're coming out with starbucks, you have to do a better job of innovation, get people to buy the innovative products they developed. but in terms of the underlying consumer, i think there's a big
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debate how strong the consumer is, we think the evidence suggests the consumer isn't in as bad a shape as some think 10 there's room for premium products that fit the fill, and that's certainly freshpet. >> you answered my last question with what is going on with consumers. you think maybe a little better than is widely believed or at least that they're telling us. and freshpet versus blue buffalo is a reminder, it's not everything in the pet category, it's that innovation and then that turn towards the higher end consumer product for freshness edward, appreciate all of your time >> thank you $168 price target on the stock, tlanand there's more pet care kristen peck will join jim for an interview following their dividend announcement yesterday at 6:00 p.m. eastern right here on cnbc. despite a string of ipos,
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one tech company is choosing to stay private the ceo tells us why, next and before we head to break, here's a broader look at the markets with the dow hitting a fresh session low, down almost 500 points boeing contributing to that 1% decline. the s&p down a quarter pceernt the nasdaq with a gain back in a moment
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welcome back nvidia's 11% pop today not helping the broad market, or i should say at least the blue chips. the dow down 500 points, weighed down by declines in boeing, and some speculation after its 10 for 1 split, nvidia could go into the dow the s&p 500 has now turned negative or is negative by about 0.4 of 1%.
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declines of livenation and bowing are weighing on that index. just when it seemed like the ipo pipeline reopened, another tech company is choosing to stay private. but that still means a big payday for shareholders. deidre bosa is here to explain >> so here's the news. risk and compliance auditboard has agreed to cash out they found the offer fair and attractive, and he doesn't see the ipo market as particularly open at the moment it's also a great exit for its investors, but there aren't a ton of companies tapping public markets. i asked him if he was leaving something on the table by foregoing on an ipo since listing is an important marketing event. >> i think that's the old way of thinking in our case, we have six of the
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fortune ten, and 50% of the fortune 500. we have over 2,000 customers today. so people know about us. there's always an opportunity to have more people know about us but we would say that has less of a benefit maybe compared to what it would have done ten years ago. >> this is such an interesting narrative violation. one that is increasingly common among the tech ceos and founders they say the benefit is building in private and some public companies are going the reverse route. but i think one thing is clear, guys, an ipo is sort of changing in founder's minds it's now not the only thing, the essential milestone. there's other ways to build your business >> and for private equity, deidre, it's also been struggling in an era of high rates hand ipo exit being closed but they can always do deals amongst themselves >> absolutely.
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and i think -- you think about private equity is like coming in and cleaning up a balance sheet, cutting costs. but more and more you see them as investors and opportunistic, and blurring the lines between private equity and venture capital. >> deidre, thank you very much, our deidre bosa. coming up, 80%, that's the growth rate of phillip morris tobacco free nicotine pouch called zin shares are up 6% since that report we'll get the tailwinds and any potential headwinds, next on "the exchange. [crowd chanting] they ignored your potential, dissed your achievements, and mocked your ambition. but it's not the critic who counts, and you know that. from the beginning, you couldn't be stopped. ♪♪ breaking resistance with every swing and block.
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on, quote, ozempic philip morris warned about supplies constraints, and my next guest stressed the importance of smoke-free products to the company's bottom line matthew, welcome >> thank for having me on the program, kelly. >> my first and foremost question is, are these products safe to use? or do they themselves create mouth problems, throat problems, and so forth >> these products, the nicotine patch products have a track record of reduced risk exposure. there's international markets that pouch products have been popular for over 30, 40 years, that have soob soon significant reduction in both smoking incidents as well as the mortality from the tobacco-related diseases
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in fact, the product also developed by swedish match, was authorized for a modified product, where the company could market as reduced risk relative to cigarette smoking. >> and that's all well and good, the problem is that it might be too popular? i don't know who else is really after the dyson air wrap and apple watch. that's kind of a youthful vibe to it. is that going to put them in the cross-hairs? could we see a repeat of the vaping situation all over again? >> there's no doubt that the category is attracting a lot of interest from both politicians as well as regulators. anytime you have a nicotine category growing at this pace, lieutenant garner attention, but if you look at the surveys as
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last year, it stands well below vaping youth usage, which is high single digits. i think it's reasonable to believe that youth usage number will increase as awareness of the category overall grows, as it would with any category as it stands right now with last year's survey, it's fairly low today. >> this is philip morris international, are -- even more mainstream >> i think the category has a lodge runway of growth ahead of it you have zin driving that growth, and it will come tun some share pressure. the large tobacco competitors have pouch products competing against it, but right now it's clearly the dat gory leader, the premium brand in the category driving the category growth
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right now. >> people are trying to find the drugs applying for this, or in general find something they've been using -- gottlieb said, look, nicotine is not what causes the death of the tobacco. could that ever be approved by regulators who think for weight loss or would they allow, without approval, for people to use it that way you could expect in that case the stock to get another leg up. >> yeah, i think right now the opportunity is to continue to drive distribution growth as an alternative to other tobacco category, whether it's smoking or vaping, given the reduced risk profile to continue to convert nicotine users from higher-risk products they do have to balance the youth usage issue, as you
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pointed out earlier. they are doing that today. they do not market to individuals below the age of 21. before they acquired swedish match, which owned the brand prior to philip morris' acquisition in late 2022, that company did not market to youth either. >> so $115 price target, the stock is 99 and change today thank you for bringing all of our attention to this product which could be growing in popularity matt, we appreciate your time today. mathew smith, joining me from stifel xai has secured some new backing from an degreesen h hor horowitz, sequoia and tribe are reported -- that's it for us on "the exchange. i will see you on "power lunch" with dominic chu on the other side of this break
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