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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  May 23, 2024 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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inching back up to 4.5% that we are about 30 basis points from the highest in october when the tenure was at five. if that moves, you can see and market. >> all right, that is it for power lunch. the dow jones is down 625 points. >> and we will handed over to closing bell. >> i am scott wapner. let's begin with this accelerated selloff and a question about tech, whether it is time to take some profits in that highflying sect. that stock is surging today and the other big names are not. they are falling pretty good and we will show you the make it cap. there is apple at the stop -- the top, down at 1.90%. microsoft is lower, 1.02%.
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higher interest rates, stronger than expected economic data, certainly part of the market story. we are going to tell you what j.p. morgan's ceo said about all of that in just a bit. boeing, they are the big drags on the dow jones, today. the biggest drag and the biggest drag by far. that stock is down some 7%, today. elsewhere, we are watching a continued reversal in copper and utilities. copper is down about 2% and the utility sector with a roll of its own, today, it takes us to the talk of the tape. should you take some profits or buy into this weakness? i gather a lot of investors are making those decisions at this moment. let's go to the panel. kristen bitterly and joe terranova, investment partners.
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it is good to have everybody here. adam, is this about that hot date of this morning that jumped up and rates and are reassessing? >> it is hotter, everywhere. it is 100 degrees where we are sitting and it is 90 degrees outside. people's right path changing. what i have been doing in my meetings this week is saying three things and number one is don't waste your time trying to make market calls, interest rate calls or equity or some premium. none of those things have any predictive value. much more like picking stocks to beat the market and i am trying to say get rid of that because the rate guys went from seven to two and if you look at the economic data, it is not that much different four or five months later. if i look six to 12 months forward, i think it is
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optimistic. i think the good news is generally good. i feel better about the market today because it is down. >> what is it to do with tech? let's refresh people's memories, okay? you suggested for much of the last year that people be overweight which is a sizable waiting but overweight in that area. i would say maybe three weeks ago, two or three weeks ago when you said no, now you want to be under. take some chips off the table. that space continued and that is the only reason we got to where we did, one of the major reasons we got off of the april lows the way we did. what do i do now? >> you know, i don't know if i have ever took a victory lap on your show because i don't like that. hour two domain calls over the
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last 18 months, microsoft. that has worked, this week. what do i do now? market weight, not underweight. i have never been underweight. >> you went from overweight consistently -- >> because of easy financial conditions and the margins expanding. it is getting closer to 50-50 in terms of 10% of and 10% down and that is where my head still is. i think the ai thing is in its early phases. >> it is not about owning it but lighting it up. >> it is a little rich and i think you trim a little bit and adware people hate it. i don't like romanticizing. i am a contrarian. if you want to know where to go, it is probably healthcare. i think 20/25 could set up pretty good. i don't say it is game over. >> you said leading up to the
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earnings, you said that this was the biggest moment for the market by far. but now that they have not the cover off of the ball, stock is ripping, does that give you more confidence that there is more room to go then maybe you thought in the market or not? because if they were disappointed, we are seeing a selloff now but you know what i mean. >> i think it all depends on your horizon. if you are investing out six, 12, 18 months, the score might be good. from owning tech to owning a i to owning the guys that have big modes and morrison expansion, i am not very good at that and i think making one month calls is hard. >> kristen, what do we do, today? as we get the final stretch underway, five minutes in, it looks far different than it did this morning.
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>> we should not read too much into this. we are going into a long weekend. i do think the good economic data that we received this morning, we should treat that has good news. if you see economic data like that, that is positive in terms of growth. our positioning, right now, is a planning of broadening out the market so to answer your question, in these large names, we certainly have exposure, s&p 500 equal weight. >> do you know who is still talking about stag collation? he has been more cautious i think publicly than most. i want you to listen to what he said about where he thinks all of this is going. >> do i think the race can go up a little bit? yes, i do. the worst outcome for all of us
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is stagflation. >> that he has been his consistent message. some say that is just jamie being jamie but the minutes were hawkish. now, they are backward looking because they have been at a time where reads on inflation had been hot for three months in a row. the time of the last meeting, things felt a little more hawkish, going in. he changed that with his comment. this does raise the issue that the market is not prepared for a big backup in rates, again, nor is it prepared for the what too many think is unthinkable and that is a hike by the fed. >> i am not ready to go there
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on the federal reserve actually presenting a hike. i like what kristen said in terms of putting today in perspective. it is ahead of a summer holiday weekend, liquidity is not as strong as it might've been six weeks or eight weeks ago and i think what we can think about today is, today officially closes out the earnings season. what is next after nvidia? and i think to say that you believe that higher rate environment, economic recession and jimmy's last thing was, corporate profits to begin to contract, i think they are forgetting what we just witnessed, a 5% gain in the s&p 500 over the last mont . why? attributable to the resiliency of corporate profitability in the technology sector, in particular. i just don't agree with that. >> mostly in the tech sector.
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>> mostly in the tech sector and i think as a portfolio, looking at the market, what do i have in front of me and what adam said, we are not trying to predict the next two months. longer-term, i think the markets are in a great place but as you move into the summer, you say to yourself, what next do i have to look forward to for a catalyst? is it going to be the worldwide developers conference from apple? we have already had a bump up from apple so i am not sure what there is to get excited about and in that environment, we go back to this awful place where the monday morning quarterback of what the economy is going to be and i don't like being in that position but i think that is the vulnerability of the market over the next several weeks. >> i think the question would be, what would bring the tenure backup? right? if you think the economy is good and i think good news would be good. if you think it is this whole bond vigilante, this is the beginning of the united states
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as a real currency, then you are crazy. right? you have been proven pre positioning for hat in the pas has not been a good idea. so i don't believe the tenure backs up the while the economy is terrible. i have listened to all of these interest rate guys in these bond guys saying it is going to come back up and every single time, the tenure goes over, anyway. why? because of the 10 year yield. when people go out there and they say, i am positioning my equity, right now, you go for it but i don't like that and i don't think it is correct and i think you will lose money. >> i think the question is about what the comment is abou , are people prepared for that? are they positioned for that? >> nor should they be. >> and i think if you are
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someone who is worried and you are worried about we could see a decline in the equity market, volatility is so muted. we saw it pickup yesterday but nothing meaningful which means hedging your portfolio is relatively cheap. jill politics, elections, there are ways of taking that risk off of the table without going off the market. >> let's talk about some specific places in the market where maybe it is a little more acute. thanks, for example. goldman is a drag, today. j.p. morgan, we have talked about that and others. let's show you the performance. there was a story circulating, today, about cnb s fire. a single property in manhattan. one property. but the idea was that the
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bondholders, even on the aaa loans, the best of the best, the top of this:, are seeing losses for the first time since the financial crisis which tells you just how bad some parts of commercial real estate actually are. obviously, the question becomes, what is next? is there another property? and then, another property? and to what degree do the banks hold this stuff on their balance sheets? do we need to think about that a little more seriously than we have been? not that much. we were and then we worked. >> we have been thinking about it. has the market been responding to it? i am not sure it has. a few of the back traders i have talked to have said this will not be the last one. there will be more in the future, in the coming months and the market is going to have
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to deal with that, overall. i also think it is important to remember that financials have been a popular place to be outside of technology so positioning is rather full and some of the names you cited in the financial sector overall. and thinking about the price action of today, the environment is adamant and kristen and myself have defined it, i think the question comes down to, you stay with that broadening out thesis which appears to be over the last six weeks gaining validity in markets that were going to work or you go back to the storm which is your shelter, ear for or ear five, however you want to define them, those really quality names. we knew that at some point in this particular cycle -- now this is maybe the area where the long and variable lags of interest rates being as high as they have been relative to where
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they were for the last 10 years was going to have the most dramatic impact. it was like a slow moving train wreck. are these the first sort of bigger signs that we need to keep our eyes open for? >> every analyst i know has long since been trying to figure out the exposure of every single bank, trying to figure out which ones mismatch liabilities from 18 months, these guys are all over. i think they were up because the economy was stronger and 6% monetized and there could be a deal flow coming through that could help these guys. i think there were reasons. when i talked to my guys who are bank stocks experts, i think they were confused about which interest rate environment they were rooting for. i think they are confused about what is going to cause a pretty good growth. i don't think
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there are good investments. i think part of the reason they also are up, jamie diamond did a really good job of listing 10 or 12 reasons j.p. morgan could benefit over a five or 10 year stretch of ai. my view is that it is going to take way longer for the banks to benefit from a productivity because you have to run everything parallel in those industries compete on pricing more than anything else. i am sure all of us have a bank. what is the product investment meant for you? increasing service for you and competing at pricing. i am not sure it is good for long-term stocks. >> let's not forget, the other day, we jumped, maybe diamond called the top in his own stock and the others when he said these levels, we are not going to be buying back a lot of
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stock at these levels. it sort of made you sit back and say, things have run a lot and maybe it is time to reassess a lot and the video goes up. a lot of those stocks have gone up a lot since the april lows. >> i think a lot of it and going back to the banks, like what are you rooting for in terms of the rate environment and i think the short end of the curve, if we think there is a delay in terms of the first rate cut, that makes them really attractive and you see them flow out into money market funds and that is always a consideration for profitability but if you're going along with the banks, i do think the preferred market is the place to be. when you look at the well- capitalized banks, you are talking about high single digit yields that many of them qualify for tax treatment, as well. that is an expression of getting involved but really looking at the strong balance
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sheets. >> bloomberg, titans rejection to reserve liquidity. i bring this up because we were kind of fixated on commercial real estate for a while and then we kind of took our foot off the gas because it was like, aside from the regional banks and some issues here and there, it is not a big deal right now. the market rally is back and everyone's focus is back to ai and they forget of the issues of the past. if the next move from the fed is a cut, all will be good. >> you don't unless you are specifically focused on you either on the properties or you are trading around it so for us, we need a headline for the market to react and that is what you're getting, today. i feel pretty confident the federal reserve is aware of the challenges that continue from the spring of 2023 through today and will continue through 2025. this is not going away.
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>> i think the public equities, guys get that. the public wants you also have trophy properties that make things better. some amazing buildings but anyone i know as a family office guy who can look at bigger buildings, it is a mess. buildings for sale a year ago are now 50 million -- the degradation of prices has a dose been massive. i think it is a 10-year-long things. i think the public equity guys are all over it but i agree with joe, you have to be in that market. >> here is another one for you: how long until -- because it has happened every time -- as the stocks are selling off into an april low, how long before buyers come in and buy mega? nvidia is holding almost all of
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its gains. 100 bucks or so at the high, today. still at 76 bucks. >> i don't look at it and go, this is an inflection point. the market topped out and we are about to have a 10 to 15% correction but the first thing i think about is the personality of the market changing. is the personality going from what was a really sunny disposition which is treating everything, not just technology but treating everything, the do- it-yourself stocks and the crypto universe and all of it really well. now doesn't go into an environment where it gets more cloudy and more moody and i think the answer is yes. >> when you say everything, we are talking about the everything rally? small caps were rallying, gold was rallying, bit coin was rallying and it was literally everywhere. >> right. what happened today? you got closure on the earnings
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season, that was it. nothing really impactful where the market is going to react until early july. >> how do you know when the vacuum of data is bearish or bullish? in the past, the good news is, and the bias is positive. this vacuum of data is now going to be bearish for a mont . >> i don't know. the problem is the uncertainty. how do we know what is coming in the next six weeks? and what is there to push against it if the ego data does not align itself with the market? do we have inverted earnings? no. >> i think good news will be good and bad news will be bad where we are now. if it gets much worse, then the bad news will be good.
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>> it goes back to the cash on the sidelines in terms of when we think about the floor to the equity market, you had a really -- relatively in the earnings market. sitting on the sidelines, that creates a bit of a. >> this is the 18. >> i enjoyed it. thank you very much. let's send it to christine for a look at the key stocks and she is watching as we close. >> more boeing woes and this time, it is cash problems. the plane maker expects to burn through another $4 billion this summer and this is according to the company's cfo. shares are down 7.5%. one of the worst. consumers may be cautious but they are cutting out their beauty products. the company posted its first
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billion-dollar year with the sales up 77%. you are seeing that stock double, today. forecasts were lighter than anticipated but the company is suggesting that the guy is conservative. >> we are just getting started. mark mahaney is shaking up his top picks for the tech sector. he will break down those moves next. live nation is sinking, today. we will hear from the companies president and cfo. there is big news that you need to hear and you will. and you will only hear it on "closing bell."
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we are back with stocks falling after hitting record highs, earlier, today. nvidia trying to offset. our next guest still sees more upside in their and shaking up the top picks. i will get to the specifics but give me your thoughts on this reversal that we have seen in the nasdaq which has been trading around record highs just about every day, now. >> i don't know if i have a lot to add to your prior guest have said. concerns are always an issue for tech scott -- stocks. those that trade, there is always a risk where interest rates are concerned. internet stocks, i look at the demand trends.
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a lot of companies are paying dividends and buying back a lot of stock and i see this ami hedge and it is really a growth driver so i like the fundamentals. evaluations have come up a lot but it is just one day. we are more compound constructed then aggressive buyers across the board. >> you have an interesting perspective. the fact that you don't cover nvidia but it matters so much to some of the stocks that you do cover. did you go into the report feeling like it had to be great to validate the move in that amazon has had or alphabet has had and confirm to you that those stocks continued to go u . >> i covered three of the biggest customers. google, meta and amazon and i see what they are doing with their capex guy.
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three companies combine to something like $75 billion in ai. throwing in microsoft, you just told me what you just learned is that nvidia's biggest customers are those four companies that have massive balance sheets, very profitable and they are pretty smart tech investors. and you see them lean in, that was probably a pretty good indicator for nvidia. >> i like that perspective. you moved alphabet in terms of your talk -- top picks. you moved it up to number hree and he replaced doordash with uber but tell me why did you move alphabet up? >> this is mostly bringing dash down. we made google one of our top picks when it just got dislocated. some of the challenges they had when they first rolled out
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gemini but i thought those were small challenges. i got the call that google was somehow ai roadkill, we misplaced and i think the company has proven that over the last week. this company i think is a major beneficiary of ai. in it is not just one. and i still like google going forward because it is just a matter of product cycles. meta had these great product cycles last year and i think these belong with google. that is where the most interesting incremental product cycles are and i don't think the ad will decelerate. >> you said this was really about bringing doordash down. why did you feel the need to do that? >> it has had a pretty nice performance, today. so i kind of went back and
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forth. kent was one of our top picks. they had a great run. and then doordash has outperformed. i am also looking for what i call false flag issues. here is one on uber. because of concerns over robotaxi's and i don't think that is going to be an issue for uber. i think the company will gain, it will come through rideshare networks like uber. and we are still sore far away from that being material to the market. i think kent will be a winner on autonomous vehicles. up next, a big breakup is on the horizon. the doj is suing ticketmaster
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over a legend trust violations. hear from the cfo and president exclusively right after this break.
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we have more news regarding that starwood incident. >> in an sec filing with stockholders, is as it is going to limit redemptions.
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they had $1.3 billion worth of redemption requests and they were only able to satisfy about $500 million worth of that. while redemption requests are down, they remained above the share purchase plans for the last year and a half. to meet the continued level, real estate property sales. that is according to the report that beginning with repurchases in may of 2024, we will limit share purchases of 2.3% and on july 1, we will limit to 1% per quarter which is described in greater detail later using april 30th, 2024's new limits to approximately $33 million of available liquidity per month, $100 million per uarter or $400 million per year.
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obviously, because of higher interest rates, it is more difficult to refinance these loans. i will say that i spoke to some experts about this over the last couple of days and this is a private problem. public reads do have issues with evaluations and higher interest rates. they are repriced basically every day because they are public. these private reads are not nearly as liquid and that is why we see these redemptions having to be curtailed. shares of live nation falling as the justice department announces it is suing the ticketmaster parent over a legend antitrust violations. the president and cfo is with us exclusively along with julia boorstin. >> reporter: thank you for joining us.
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i want to start off with the allegations that the doj and the state attorneys general are filing that live natio -ticketmaster has engaged in misconduct among other things, threatening venues that work with rivals and restricting to these venues. >> i think what the doj has accused us of being drivers of higher ticket prices and higher service fees. that is the core of it and the facts do not sustain that. if you look at the business results, of the promotion business, the right of ticketmaster is around 5%. it is simply not enough profitability to sustain any real monopoly or control of the industry >> so much of this lawsuit is
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about live nation using its size to squash competitors including acquiring companies that could become rivals in the future. i know there seems to be concerned over ticket prices but how do you address some of those allegations? >> we disagree with all of these allegations. if you look at the history, these tend to be small promoters, often buying festivals. these are not promoters that were ever going to be major touring promoters so we absolutely disagree with the characterization that they have made. >> the doj says ticketmaster controls about 80% of primary ticketing. is that accurate? >> it is absolutely not accurate. with others, they are using an extremely narrow definition of the top arenas and stadiums in the country.
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that is not a market definition in any legal sense. it is a very narrow, ticketmaster has developed its software. if you look at the top buildings, they are easily substitutes for our market shares at 50% to 60%. so to get to a higher number, it is not relevant. >> why the largest concert promoter, one that manages 400 artists directly should also control such a large portion of the ticketing to those shows that your artist put on? and how does that not drive ticket prices higher?
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>> there is no basis for saying the ticket prices are higher. what the doj has done is taken a variety of random data points and put it together so that we are somehow creating higher ticket prices. the ticket prices are driven by what is needed in today's production costs and the secondary, the value and what a fair price will be. our margin was 1.7%, last year. all the money that we made, that would reduce prices by 1.7%. >> you don't think there is any conflict of interest, the idea that you are the largest promoter and you said that the ticket prices as well and especially when it is a high demand show. you have the power to set the ticket prices as high as you would like?
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>> but we are not setting the ticket prices. the artist is setting the ticket price and we are working with the artist to market the show and sell the tickets to get the fans in. we went into ticketing because there was not an effective platform. we have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in ticketmaster and make it the best platform to sell tickets. rivals have publicly stated that ticketmaster is the best platform to sell tickets. we have a lot of data that demonstrated that shows sold on ticketmaster performed much better than shows sold on other platforms. we don't see it as a conflict but mutually reinforcing pieces to deliver the best outcome for artists. >> just to bring it back to
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stock prices, down about 8% and in anticipation of this news, what is your message to shareholders who are clearly concerned and if the company were to be broken up which is what the doj would like to see, how much would those separated entities suffer by the lack of synergies that you currently have? >> we believe that the department of justice has spent the last two years trying to figure out how to come to the decision that they wanted to see. all they have accomplished is a handful of unrelated conduct that is very specific business practices to individual businesses that does not establish any basis for overturning the merger approved by the department of judges dose justice -- justice getting the facts out. sharing with the
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department of justice, i have shared with them over the past month to show how ticketmaster and live nation have both been declining profitability, declining rates over the last decade showing the competition is working in both ends of the industry delivering more value. they chose to ignore that today in their press conference but we will continue to get the facts out and we are more confident. >> we will see how this lawsuit pans out. we appreciate you joining us on the heels of this news. thank you so much for joining us. stocks are sinking as we are heading into the bell, today. failing to lift the broader market but certainly, not now. chris is back with us to tell
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ahhh ahhh stock welcome back to closing
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bell. let's bring in chris, and he is here with us again. it is good to have you. the video blows the doors off and here we are in the midst of a big selloff, what is up? >> i think it is a little bit of get ahead of tomorrow. you cannot use that as the full excuse but any little headline that pops up where someone might not want to go into tomorrow fully loaded, you might see some of that but a pop up in yields, that is the big story, the story of the day and not the trend. >> how do you know that? >> you actually don't but you can look at all of the data and see the consumer is getting tired, selective, you are starting to see some of the retailers discount prices. we expect some of that to continue and we expect yields to crest and come back down and
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provide that invitation. >> people are dramatically underestimating the broad effects that have been done by the fed. it is not a foregone conclusion in any way that we will have a so-called soft landing and we need to be more aware of it then perhaps the market suggests we are? >> forget about the landing. it is going to come back and forth like a ping-pong match. what about this concept of a bridge cycle which we are just trying to normalize. we got way ahead of ourselves and now we are normalizing and i would say that we might be in this bridge cycle for quite a few years and not necessarily always waiting for the recession but the last bit of inflation to come down and normalize. >> what if we are normalizing in an environment where inflation is elevated for a longer period of time? that could be part of the normalization process, too. and
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then we need to reassess where the markets are going to be and where earnings are going to be, right? >> that is right but if that happens, you have a little bit more of an acceleration or at least a base for profits to rise. as long as there is not a sharp increase, you get that consistency level. there is nothing wrong with 3%. it is tough for those who are struggling. when you're talking about 3% inflation rate, that worked really well in the 1990s. >> what about areas of the market that you want to lean into and areas that you want to avoid. 15 minutes ago, we asked, do you leann? does it give you confidence to leann or does it make you lean out and rethink, a little bit? maybe that is what is happening, today? >> that is natural, healthy. we should be seeing that from
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time to time because when they do get overextended, it is nice to pull back some of your exposure but the trend is very early in capex and between supply and demand whether that is assets or simply generative artificial intelligence. >> i think the last time you were on, i try to remember exactly how you put it, something to the effect of the early stages of a decades-old market, does that represent your view? >> that is the view. we will say it again, it is easy to say that when things are going up and it is easy to say that on a day like today because we are living in the moment and we are projecting forward but if you just think of wealth transfer, you think of supply. people need assets to grow wealth. the supply of assets are no. the demand for assets are high. that means climbing the wall for a longer period of time
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that people want to believe. 5300 today. we can write 6%, 7%. for the bull case. the key is not necessarily what the market can give us but what the market internals can give us and there's a lot of opportunity. we said this before. we all talk about that narrow segment of the market. there is 180+ companies out before the s&p through the first week of may. coming up, workday. we are going to run you through the numbers. that and much more when we take you inside the markets, next. a team that's highly competent. i'm just here for the internets. at&t it's super-fast. reliable. you locked us out?! arrggghh! ahhhh! solution-oriented.
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we are now in the closing bell markets. mike santilli to break down the crucial moments of this trading day and brewer looking ahead to the workday results, as well. why don't you drop some knowledge on us. >> 85% down on the new york stock exchange. you have this slightly ugly set up where you have this push higher into a record high and you lose it. that being said, it doesn't look like it is really disturbed that much underneath the surface. relatively modest moves because we once again came into the week in this very comfortable spot where we thought we had benign conditions in place and
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it is wavering from that you. nvidia is well above its opening price. 10 .20. and i think it is oddly a good thing that we did not get some kind of melt up based on one company's earnings. what is working is supposed to work. i thought the risk early this morning was that we would get a boiling over of excited sentiment and that would kind of make the market rise. we've got to reset and the s&p is trading higher than it has in the history of time except for the last week and a half. >> i do think it is interesting. i did figure you would get a jump in the other mega cap. as we end the session, you are not on any of them? >> i am negative on the day and there was some pent-up selling and people are figuring into why am i selling into what could be one of the best selling reports in history? we
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will see if there is anything more into it. i do think and terms of consumer weakening at a time when inflation is not doing what it is supposed to do. >> the analysts are expecting the revenue to grow, about 17% year on year. in line with what we saw last quarter but the focus is really going to be on that subscription revenue. the guidance for it estimated at $1.8 billion so we will see if they come into line. the total consensus is $1.97 billion and had earnings of $1.58. the stock is up 35% but down 35% year to date. >> thank you. we will look out for those earnings in ot. a good one to watch. another cloud software stop, a
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lot of these have gotten the halo effect deservedly or not. >> it is a direct business opex proxy, as well and by the way, one of the bigger companies not in the s&p 500, so what are we watching? i was watching all day for the smt -- s&p 50 on 50. we hovered above it. the dow jones looks worse. almost 1000 points. now, that is only 2.5%, these days. we have to account for the dominator but it is somewhat significant that we did get to a mission accomplished moment, your lows, people getting calm about things and i don't think that is wrong. obviously assuming that the economy hangs in but we are going to be in for some relatively catalyst free days. we will see how it holds up.
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>> is that reaction to the data? >> sellers and bonds. >> we will see you back here, tomorrow. >> [ bellringing ] well, nvidia's stark quarter not enough to rescue the market, today. the stocks are lower, the dow jones falling right around 600 points with steep declines for boeing and intel. we are going to stay late. i am jon fortt. we will be all over this throughout the show and another busy hour of earnings is coming your way including results from the shopper giant along with workday,

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