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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  May 28, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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powder sitting there, you're cutting that down by a day >> a lot of stuff trades multiple times a day, machines hand it back and forth real people, real investors, it could make a difference that way. >> mike santoli, thanks for joining us a record close in the nasdaq, stocks moving higher, records as well, with semiconductors and nvidia powering the gains. we're on $2.9 trillion watch for nvidia >> that's going to do it for us on "overtime." "fast money" starts now. live from the heart of the market square, this is "fast money," shares of nvidia keep def defying gravity and logic. the stock up 20% in the last week 32% this month 130% since the start of the year how long can this run continue we'll debate that. commercial crunch, a new report painting a bleak picture about the beaten up office space area of the retail market and biotech boom, the
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details on why shared of insaid doubled today. the ceo will join us investors have been gobbling up the cava stock all year. we'll find out if they're just full right now i'm mel issa bee on the desk, tim seymour, guy adami, the nasdaq closing above 17,000 for the first time ending the day near session highs nvidia playing a leading role. the chip maker up 7% today, now up 20% in the last week. we'll have much more on nvidia's record breaking run in markets in just a minute we begin with the growing fear factor in commercial realize a new report suggesting the trouble in the office space market is getting worse. cnbc's diana olick has the exclusive details. >> as pain in commercial realize drags on most acutely in the office space and the prospect for significantly lower interest rates is pushed further out, we are now seeing a big uptick in loan modifications in the first quarter of this
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year, there were $1.42 billion in office loan modifications that's a huge jump from the just 117 million in the same quarter last year, and all of this is according to new numbers from trem analysts there say that is not a good sign for the market >> somebody put a band-aid on the current environment we're in it transfers the risk down to future years where, you know, borrowers are hoping interest rates are lower, they're hoping occupancies are stronger, but the reality is in 12, 18, 24 months, which the typical extension has been, i don't see a lot of changes happening. >> borrowers have to pay a lot for modifications. the terms are short. the incentive was lower interest rates. that's not happening as quickly as most thought. looking forward, there's much less incentive for additional modifications. trep expects office loan modes to increase this year as there's about $30 billion worth of maturing cnbs office loans left in 2024.
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melissa. >> a staggering number, the hope is rates will be lower, the economy will still be, you know, firm, in 18 to 24 months where are these modifications being concentrated where is the most distress right now? >> well, you're seeing it in loans that are held in what we called the b office, not the class a office space, the new buildings. they have really good occupancy, that is in cities like new york city, washington, d.c., boston, that is the high end of the office market is doing fine. it's those b buildings in suburban markets or smaller cities that are seeing the most distress, and those are sort of at the mid sized to small banks that we see that this extend and pretend on the modifications. the thought was, yes, like you said, they would get to a point that we have lower interest rates and everything would work out. even if you have that equation down two, three, years, they have a long way to go to get back to where the loans were originally made in the 3 to 4% range from where we are now. >> where are we now, diana, just for reference, approximately
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>> well, i mean, commercial realize is not the same as residential. we're in the 7% range. commercial, it depends on the building and the bond, but we're higher than 7. >> much higher. >> diana, thanks. >> diana olick i like that extend and pretend that captures what is going on in this market in this pocket of the market, they are hoping, hoping that rates will come down by the time that loan comes due. >> well, and that's been part of the dynamic here with higher for longer, which is that we really haven't seen any test on commercial real estate nei neil, when we look at where we were a year ago, getting through silicon valley bank, cre and the impact on regional banks was a big part of the story. the fact that rates are as high a year later, they don't see, if you look at futures, we're not
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going to have a ton of relief. extending as diana pointed out in terms of a short-term loan and a relative basis of where we were, loans were coming due. you get kicked out 18 months kashkari expected big losses in nakt n markets like london and new york he wouldn't rule out a rate hike it's a high bark, but wouldn't take the option off the table. >> i sort of agree this is somebody that's way behind the curve in terms of when they wanted to start raising rates and now when we're theoretically lowering it. he's a fan of the show, with all that said, it comes down to interest rates you saw the five-year auction, not particularly good, ten-year rallying again i don't think that is particularly well. you look at the kre, which is bounced but not nearly as much as larger money center banks that might be vulnerable and the
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one that sticks out to nme, look at symon property, we're in an 8-year down trend. it's had a monumental bounce off the bottom things haven't gotten that much better things have gotten quiet nothing has been fixed in my opinion. >> the regional banking index, we have seen yields go for 435, to 455 just in the last week or so the kre is down 6 1/2% i think everything we have just discussed, heard from diana, it shows where the stress might be as things get worse. i know we have been focused on this since svb, and the regional banking crisis it's important to note bkx has come up 4%, while we see rates increase one of the reasons we track the economic data, maybe he might be right. we might start to see rate hike chances, you know, increase a little bit that's kind of, i think it's worth paying attention to
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kashkari >> i think when you're looking at the commercial real estate sector, there's two ways to play this look at the regional banks, likely where the stress is going to be. they're holding the loans for those. when it comes to the real estate side, a lot of people are worried about reits in realize and auoffice reit is going to he the issues you look at industrials, multifamily, a lot of private equity money is going into buy additional reits not all reits are created equal, and commercial and office exposure is pretty small when you're looking at the vanguard real estate index. it's a small exposure, and that's something that's important to keep in mind as an investor. >> it's a difficult day for treasurers. >> we had a terrible auction >> a terrible auction after a poor auction 70 billion in five years, a big chunk of 7s.
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tomorrow they're going to be buying back a lot of weird, funky, off the run securities that are hard to bid, and i just think the pressure on the treasury treasury market is another part of the story jgb yields is a magnet higher, now that the bank of japan is suddenly in the market saying, we'll just let markets decide. this is what markets do, the bank of japan that has manipulated the long end of the curve in their bond market forever. i think this is all pressure on commercial real estate kre kr yields are going higher. the economy is doing just fine, and that's something that if you think about the u.s. government as a credit worthy buyer and where tax receipts have been coming in less than expected it's hard to believe with the job narcotmarket where it is, tx receipts have been these are small receipts in a story, elections coming and deficits not going to get better with an administration, you have
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a dynamic, tit's not good for commercial real estate. >> the class b office is in terrible shape, really go pear shaped so to speak what impact is that on the broader economy. we seem to just be okay with any particular -- with this issue. this report came out today no big deal when it came to the markets. we're willing to look past it to some stextent. >> a year ago i would have said it's got to have an impact on the economy, if you think about it fewer people untiin the offices small businesses are not going to do very well. that can't be a good recipe. here we are sort of making our way through it and it's a slow drip i think at some point, though, that slow drip is not going to be slow anymore. it's going to start to accelerate hyg is something you should look at in terms of credit. and tim is right in terms of bringing up gentlemajapan and tk
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of japan the currency continues to weaken which is somewhat counter intuitive. i don't care about japan that's fine. i think it's huge ramifications for our bond market here. >> let's take a step back in a minute rise in yields in japan is a push higher here, correct? that's how we need to think about it that had an impact on the ten-year, pushed yields higher, all the things that we don't necessarily want to pay attention to have an impact on this and rates on mortgages in general. >> they do i look at japan who's one of the largest buyers of treasuries, and i think they've got issues to think about i think, you know, we've got a pce number on friday the market is looking for more signs on inflation inflation is stuck sideways with the services sides of inflation. back to commercial real estate, we talk about it like could this be the next commercial mortgage backed dynamic the size of the market makes cnbs look like a pimple.
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you think about commercial real estate and who suffers, think about the risk that so many pension funds and endowments and municipalities have been forced to reach out to commercial real estate we talk private credit, private credit a lot of that is packaged on commercial real estate the size of this market is so seismic that i think it's something that you have to pay attention to, even if you have a small bit of a default ratio change. >> let's dig deeper into this with rosenberg research founder and president, david rosenberg i know you have been listening to our conversation intelligently, and with interest, and i'm wondering how you assess sort of the exposure the economy could have if this is, in fact, the so called next shoe to drop. >> we saw shoes dropping last year, you know, with silicon valley bank, and some others of course that was more upside down on the treasury securities. it created a ripple, but, you know, the fed and the authorities intervened and
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prevented it from becoming a cry si -- crisis a couple of months ago after one of the fomc meetings at the podium, powell said that he expects that there's going to be regional bank failures this year he knows that this game is not over the question is, you know, how can they smooth the transition, you know, when these regional banks start to fail and, of course, we'll see more consolidation, so on and so forth. >> hey, david, it's dan. thanks for joining us. you have been on the lower inflation train for a very long time here. and i'm just curious where you think you see inflation in the u.s. bottoming out a little bit, and what do you think some of the ramifications might be for that because obviously some of the day data we have seen of lately have been firmer, and inflation expectations haven't come down that much from the 3.1 cpi. >> the market expectations have been stable for three years. and i think the five-year and
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ten-year break evens have been stuck around 2.3%. that's nothing to be concerned about. but, you know, when you talk about u.s. inflation, i mean, firstly, it's a lagging indicator. i'm very concerned that the fed is busy chasing lagging and contemporaneous indicators, and what's holding up the u.s. inflation rate, beyond the fact that we have this bump up in insurance rates, whether it's autos or home or health insurance this year, which is nothing the fed can really control, what's holding it up for for the most part is equivalent rent it's interesting, when you look agent the u.s. inflation numbers and put it consistently with how they do it in europe, the underlying inflation rate in the united states is 1.9%, and nobody talks about it. a lot of it will depend, and powell talked about this, how painstakingly slow it's been for the rental numbers
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20% of the index to start to soften up. your inflation story for this year has been insurance and it's been the rental numbers. outside of that, there is no inflation until the data >> hey, david, it's courtney here, and thanks for joining when it comes to the commercial banking space here, you saw the fed was actually willing to come out, and they were bailing out the regional banks and that did put a floor on the issue we're seeing in the commercial space my question is how much does that going forward create a floor there? are people not worried about what's happening in the real estate market because the fed is willing to step in >> look, regional banks did fail last year. they didn't prevent that what they prevented, how they end up doing it, your guess is as good as mine. do we create a bad bank, the late 1980s the concern for the central bank is not so much about banks
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failing. the concern would be does it, you know, engineer systemic risk to the financial system. that's what they're going to be focused on. >> are you not worried because you think the fed is going to step in? >> well, i wouldn't exactly be an investor in regional bank, and i do have a more defensive bend towards the stock market. it depends how you position. i'm not concerned this is going to turn into an unmitigated disaster we know the story, and we know it's going to be a suppressant on growth. the conversation before about interest rates it's not about interest rates staying stable if we're going to actually prevent this from becoming something worse, the fed is also going to have to cut rates, the way, i guess, for inflation to come down more quickly than it has, but we're not talking about just interest rates stabilizing. when you're taking a look in the broad business sector, where these loans were originated were between 200 and 300 basis points
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above the level of rates right now. rates are going to have to come down to stave this off, alongside some of the other more direct measures that the fed and the treasurer are going to have to nmake. >> david, it's always great to get your take. thanks for your time david rosenberg, rosenberg research do they have extra motivation to get on the cutting train fast center. >> no, they don't. in fact, they probably see their greater risk is moving too quickly to the downside, even though david's right it to talk about the lag effect and chasing numbers that are meaningless if you think about what's gone on in the past. and what i heard david saying is he's more concerned about, i think i heard him saying, he's more concerned about deflation, rather than inflation. in fact, a credit bubble, and if you think about where japan came from after two or three decades, and even where we are coming ou of the financial crisis, it's something that means you're fighting deflation so there are still people that
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believe that's the big debate and terms of al kayallocators, people are locking in high yields, because they're not convinced yields stay higher. >> we talked about the yield curve forever last year, it's forgotten. what is it the journal article, talking about the forgotten indicator. nobody wants to talk about it. the fed wants to cut rate. they will control the front end of the curve and maybe they'll knock two-year yields down to 4 1/2%. the ten-year yields are going higher that's going to be the steepening and the time historically when things get dicey, the resteepening of the yield curve. >> if they cut too quickly, it might restoke inflation fears, and you have seen this, you know, crude oil closed above 80 for the first time in a little bit here i do think it's interesting that the dollar has been lower, hasn't kind of rallied with yields right now but who knows what would happen there. if they cut, you would see a
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weaker dollar. maybe the weaker dollar is suggesting that to us. i don't know at the end of the day, the point you made about what the fed might do yesterday, let some regional banks fail they're not going to let a contagion happen that is the lesson over the last five years, and goes back fifteen years. >> we have a news alert on united airlines, following a warning from american. let's get the details with phil lebeau. >> another 8k, and unlike americans united is reaffirming its guidance for the second quarter. we're entering that period we're going to start to get guidance in terms of how the quarter was shaping up and despite united reaffirming its guidance, the stock is under pressure. why? because american airlines has issued a warning which has some people saying, are we going to see softness with the airline stocks it's also bringing shares of united down, although american's warning is strictly about american they have lowered their eps guide. it was $1.15 to $1.45.
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revenue expected to fall 5 to 6% it was expected to fall 1 to 3%, and the company announcing that the chief commercial officer is leaving the company. we will have hear more from the ceo of american airlines tomorrow morning at the bernstein conference in new york i'm sure he'll be spelling out in greater detail exactly why it has issued this warning for the second quarter back to you. >> phil, did i see that the guidance range for united looked like a buck wide on adjusted eps? >> i have not seen that guidance yet. if that's the case, that probably explains some of the pressure that's there. >> i see it here, 3.75 to 4.25 on adjusted eps guidance phil lebeau, thank you what do you think, tim >> i think airlines are great trading stocks after a 70% move in united and i like the fundamentals of delta,
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you have a fight to the downside t it's traded in a range from 30 to 35 up to 60 you don't chase this one on a buy tomorrow kon. shares of cava on the move after shares of results and how the whole fast food space is faring that's next. and can't stop, won't stop, the nid i nvidia search continues with no end in sight. how our traders are moving ahead of the stock split when "fast money" returns meets bold new thinking. (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.
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get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? sure, honey! this generation is so dramatic! move with xfinity. welcome back to "fast money," we have an earnings alert on cava. kate rogers joins us to dig in on why hey, kate. >> you said it, a beat on the top and bottom lines of cava today. $0.12 per share, revenues, 259 million. same store sales better than expected for the quarter up 2.3% the company also raised its full-year outlook for restaurant sales to a range of 4 1/2 to 6%, up from a range of 3-5%. it toopened 14 restaurants
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bringing the total to 320. the stock has rallied 90% so far this year to date but lower as you nenmentioned on this earnins report after the runup the ceo saying in an interview with reuters it has no price hikes planned for the remainder of the year, and has seen resiliency from price cohorts. a bit more expensive names for consumers in terms of dining out. in an environment where fast food itself has gotten expensive, melissa back over to you >> kate, thanks, down 2 1/2% on a fresh record high is not bad at all. >> relief. >> totally. >> and tim can wax poetic, but it's expensive whatever metric, and i think what is going on here, and i might be wrong, people are trying to find the next cmg, and maybe they're finding it in the form of cava it's gotten really expensive really quickly good news, though, margins are really good. they beat profit margins by 210
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basis points it is not an indictment of the company, it's an indictment of the valuation. >> people are looking for chipotle, they have catalysts that could bring them higher starting to obviously open more restaurants, drive throughs have higher margins they put a lot of money into technology they're automattiing like makin pita which is fascinating that they can do so. it's reducing labor costs. >> longer term, it's an interesting story. >>st i it's lunacy >> mediterranean bowl, tim >> look, i have mediterranean somewhere in my history, and it doesn't impress me they're trading at ten times sales. you saw that forward pe. i think you have a dynamic, how can fast casual, i understand it's a different demo. how can fast casual be doing what it's doing when fast food
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and quick serve is plummeting. look at that chart on mcdonald's, wendy ear's >> isn't that unfair isn't that like saying how can a higher end retailer be doing what dollar general is doing, it's a completely different demographic. >> yes and numbo. at some point there are people buying the $20 salad is that you? >> it's not a salad. it's a mediterranean bowl. that's twice now. >> you would be in the market for a mediterranean bowl with pita. >> i eat the pita plain. you're supposed to put hummus on it. >> in wedding crashers, don't just nod, tim. >> i'm trying to have a serious conversation about stuff, and you guys are into pita i think mcdonald's is starting to get interesting i think around 240 is where you might want to start looking at
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at multiple. forget the stock chart you're starting to buy a company that's priced in a lot of bad news shaq looks expensive relative to that group that's near all time highs. >> margin improvement is kind of baked into the mcdonald's story. it's down 14% or so from the recent highs maybe they are offsetting the labor increases. you did like a little man on the street thing at mcdonald's >> we were on the cutting edge of that. >> listen, you know, this year, expected to do like peak margins and improving next year. >> coming up, more earnings action to bring you, shares of box on the move after reporting results. the details out of that quarter, next. plus, nvidia's unbelievable rise continues as the chip giant gears up for the ten for one stock split. what to expect after that change healed you're watching "fast money" back from the nasdaq market center live in times square, back after this.
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kick of confidence. cirkul is the effortless energy that gets you in the zone. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. welcome back to "fast money," stocks finishing mixed to kick off the holiday week the s&p finishing just about flat and the nasdaq gaining 99 points to finish above 17,000 for the first time ever.
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nvidia, a key driver of those gains, the stock jumping nearly 7% and continuing its post earnings surge the rest of the semis riding the nvidia wave, names like amd, micron, and intel. intel gaining as the money keeps flowing into this ai space here's the question. is nvidia's run lunacy to use a word that you used earlier in relationship to cava, or does it make sense because part of this is on the back of xai, and elon musk is going to buy a whole lot of nvidia chips for xai. >> through that lens, it makes perfect sense. through the other lens, double triple ordering, margins at some point are going to peak in a meaningful way the fact that market participants think semis are no longer cyclical. that's the other side of the equation through the one lens, the capx and the space, it absolutely makes sense. the other side of that mountain, though, not so much in my opinion. >> you believe in the other side of the mountain. >> just so we're clear, for the
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last 80% or 100% >> that's the thing. >> so i want to be clear about that >> that's what's fascinating about this move. we have been talking about semis for how long in terms of performance in leading the market, two years. so to say that semis have outperformed the market by 60% in the last two years, you're not surprised to hear it 45% of the 60% move or 75% of the move of outperformance of semis has come since november of '23 to the present that's crazy most people in late october, when the markets turn. and it's really from that moment said, wow, boy, semis have had an incredible run. we're going to see broadening of the market out performance. again, the out performance, as a group, so, yeah, elon musk news was part of a driver for nvidia today but as we just said, the entire space was on fire every one. micron makes new highs, and they're not a sexy ai play, even though they have been an ai
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play can they go higher i think they can. >> it's interesting that nvidia is about to overtake apple in market cap it's gained a half trillion dollars in market cap since they reported those results, and you know, there's a whole host of reasons why you could say, if i'm short, i want to cover or why people are going to continue to get long. the stock is up a thousand percent from october of 2022, at some point, something is going to come undone not only is going to take nvidia down but the whole sector down the hyper scalers, microsoft, aws at amazon, whether it's google cloud they're going to benefit i think nvidia mentioned an information article talking about this, their prior expectations for cloud spend went from 3 1/2 billion to $9 billion sooner or later some of the stuff as you see pricing come in, margins come in, and greater spend, that is going to weigh on nvidia shares, and should continue to benefit the hyper scalers. >> you mentioned aig, and dell, which is also reporting earnings this week. that's one that you liked.
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>> and i think that's where you want to start to play the adjacent plays here. i think nvidia can keep going up you get the fomo trade the higher you go, the more they want to get in the rally they're left out of. i think dell is a beneficiary of that. you're going to see hardware upgrades, ai enabled devices. i have said this before, but the energy space, i think that's one you're going to have to power these huge data centers that comes with ai, and that's regardless of which companies are doing so that's actually are r really god way of playing this. >> sports gambling like draft kings are sinking after proposed tax hikes. is this the beginning? will other states follow the lead ahead and massive moves in shares of insmed, ceo will lewis is here to dig into the trial results and what it could mean for the future of the company. back in two. catch us anytime on the go, follow the "ston" dcfa meypoast.
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welcome back to "fast money," shares of biopharma
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company insmed soaring 119% today, following promising results of its lung study. the study found patients with noncystic fibrosis saw a significant reduction in symptoms if this treatment is approved, it would be the first to deal with this condition and might work for other hard to deal with diseases insmed's ceo will lewis is here to discuss this. exciting day for your company. >> it certainly was. a fantastic day for the patients who have bronchiectisis. it has nothing approved to treat and this is a landmark study, 50% bigger than any other study in the field, and this has been an area that a lot of people have tried to develop drugs and have struggled today represents a new day of hope for people with this disease. >> analysts on wall street are excited, comparing this to potential dupixant or humira, at its height was a $22 billion drug in one year part of that enthusiasm is this
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mechanism of this drug, which is the dpp-1 inhibitor. dpp-1 inhibitor does what, and what does that mean for other diseases of the lung that have been so far hard to treat? >> well, it's not just diseases of the lung. it's really any what we would refer to as neutrafil mediated diseases they address inflammatory conditions by inhibiting dpp-1, you break that cycle of inflammation that can lead to diseased states. we talked about bronciectisis, but we have a disease called chr chronic, currently numbering 26 million people in the u.s. that have that condition. so this is a very significant opportunity. w we're going to focus on the most
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severe end of the patient spectrum and it's still quite substantial. its day has started today. >> how pivotal do you think this mechanism will be in the long run? you're talking about a trial that's underway for crs without p poll ups when you think about other diseases, what does that pipeline look like >> we started when the phase 2 results were published in the new england journal of medicine. we have in our chemistry labs, additional compounds it's not just the one we brought forward today, but it's other compounds that are in development. we have looked in the pre-clinical disease states for things like rheumatoid arthritis, lupus nephritis very substantial populations where there's a clear medical need one of the diseases, a phase 2
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study, a deterrmotologic conditn >> cow come right at the forefront, stepping into the same class as big cap pharma names. my question is you mentioned different indications, talk about, i guess, dollars and cents, what's the potential for this drug in your estimation, to the extent you can answer that >> the way we like to think of it is patient impact at the time of launch where we have our commercial infrastructure which is the u.s., europe and japan, there are a million patients identified today that would be suitable for treatment with this condition, assuming it received the appropriate regulatory approvals. crs without nasal polyps each and every condition is very substantial. >> you're ramping up quickly in anticipation of regulatory approval and markets of this drug, correct? i mean, i read that you are hiring, you put out 100 sales
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job postings in the past week. >> that's a good sign. >> well, the truth is we have been preparing for this moment for a long time, and we have been working on the assumption that the data would be good. so we started with the leadership in the sales function as well as the medical function, and importantly as we all know, the market access function we need to be able to not only provide this drug but make sure that the patient experience from start to finish is as smooth as it can possibly be the latest group is 100 new job postings but i will tell you as somebody who has been with the company for 11 1/2 years, when i started, there were 30 employees. today we number over a thousand, and we're well on our way to getting a lot bigger than that. >> thank you for come ongoing. will lewis, insmed that was a massive stock move today. >> and justified, by the way, and i think the analyst, a physician, i can't think of his last name, i can't pronounce it. he said this will be one of the most binary outcomes we have seen in the last fife years in
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terms of biotech he was spot on and the truist analyst put a $48 price target on the stock a month ago. now you're going to see analysts play catch up in terms of the name huge move today. probably just getting started. >> and what we just heard, we'll talk about there's the focus on today's data points and what they mean for, how do we pronounce that? >> the whole crs, there's a broader application for this application, and that's part of what i think the analyst community is going to jump on to. >> coming up, the news that had sports betting stocks going bust, and one state's tax proposal will handicap the whole space. the details are next "fast money" is back in two.
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thousands of people. 60 degrees pharma, stock symbol sxtp with rates from $199 per person per night. visit sandals.com or call 1-800-sandals welcome back to "fast money," sports gambling stocks slipping today on news that illinois is moving closer to ju major hike on its sports betting tax, from 15% to a graduated format that could go as high as 40%.
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f does this happen do more states follow? >> part of the advocacy and the follow through for online sports betting has been because the states see and smell these tax dollars, so i do think that there's going to be more pressure i also think that the size of the addressable market is part of what you have to do the market is not doing that calculation today. so what other follow through will be still unknown. draf draftkings has had a solid run i own draftkings, i don't own flutter. flutter is cheaper may be an interesting way to play here. >> draftkings traded 42 million shares, almost 4 1/2 times normal volume. it has come off significantly from the prior high we saw a couple of weeks ago. i don't think you run that far away from this the volume today suggests you blew weak hands out of the name. >> what you need to look at, they are going to have increased tax revenue but at the same time, if they get legalized in more states, a lot of that likely will come back.
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i think this is going to be a shorter term issue but a longer term gain. coming up, leasing resurgence, why the tides are turning at the dealership, and how it could affect your next car decision the details next refa meyinwo to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley
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welcome back to "fast money," auto leasing making a comeback dealers seeing more traffic. is this sustainable. cnbc's fellphil lebeau has answ. >> this is for the man who runs "fast money," seems like i get a call every month or so, thinking about a lease on this vehicle. he's got more options thousand look at the percentage of vehicles that are sold every month because lease vehicles are measured as sold within the industry 23.7% of what was sold was actually leased so far this year big improvement over last year, and 2022 so what's going on a couple of things there's greater supply right now as we get further and further from the chip crisis that means the auto makers are building more vehicles, sending more to dealers who have more options to lease, and lower price pointed, by the way, and when you take a look at where north american production is, it's going to increase another
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2% this year with that in mind, it brings up the question, will this continue well, as you take a look at sales, remember there was a big dropoff in 2022. not necessarily because of demand, but because of supply. and because there was constricted supply because of the chip crisis, there were fewer vehicles that were leased. what does that mean in 2025? you've got about 1 million fewer vehicles coming off lease next year, so the leasing cycle, it's been interrupted to a certain extent it's good right now. don't expect it to stay that way going into 2025. finally, take a look at shares of some of the key auto makers that we like to focus on the reason we're showing you hyundai, mercedes and volkswagen, why, because these are among the leaders when it comes to evs sold in the u.s., and i hear this from a lot of people they're like, well, if the evs are built elsewhere, how do we get the tax credit of $7,500 there's a leasing loophole, melissa, and that allows basically all evs to get that
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$7,500 credit when you work in a lease. that's part of what was worked into the federal tax credit. so that is a big driver of what we're seeing with evs right now. >> at least for now, phil, what does this do or in the immediate future, what does this do for used car prices and the value of rental car fleets? >> in terms of used car prices, i think, look, it's the overall market for new that drives used car prices, and i think that they're more normalized than ever before. you're not going to see a change there. in terms of the rental car fleets, what they're adjusting to in the case of hertz getting rid of the lot of evs, they have unloaded a lot of them and other rental car companies have the work to do. the rental car customer was not interested in going electric. >> did you tell sandy the boss of "fast money," that it's time to lease a car that's the bottom line here of
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this report, right >> he never makes a decision he'll call me two weeks later, thinking about a different deal. >> so ironic, too, a man who makes a thousand decisions every day about the show cannot make a decision phil, thank you. >> exactly >> the always helpful phil lebeau in so many different ways what do we do with this information when it comes to gm, ford, et cetera? >> kudos to tim on this one. toyota reported on may 8th and they gave conservative guidance. i think they gave an opportunity. that stock was making an all-time high. it's probably come off maybe 11, 12% since then that's the place to be in an environment where gm and ford have gone for 20 years, upper left, right, that's the place to be. >> i'm surprised that toyota didn't make it into your -- it's not like blycept >> it already had a big move depending how one plays the acronym game if one plays by the rules, they make an acronym. i know it's not a name, folks, we do smart things around this
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you can make an argument toyota is not bombed out toyota has one of the great runs any autocompany has had. as i liook at the greater focus that's probably not great for ford and gm. certainly gm over ford since october, and fstit's been a masv move built around the original ice business, with hybrid dynamic, without a focus on av, that's why it's rallied. >> phil brought up that the rental market doesn't want evs if you're uber users in new york city, there's a ton of low end, you know, teslas they have just been kind of dumped on to the uber, whoever the uber drivers are i know there's organizations that buy and lease them out. t tesla can't get out of its own way. it's surprising coming out of my mouth. you think about this i think that the rental channel was something they were ays nestic about and that'go aw. >> up next, final trades
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final trade time tim seymour. altria, for defense players, this is 9%. >> courtney. >> the ai adjacent trade, energy is how you want to play that mlpx is the pipelines. >> dan nathan. >> you freak me out about the cre talk. >> are you freaked out >> i would stay away from the kre. >> sunrise florida tonight, what time is it >> two hours, sunrise florida. >> is sunrise, florida a place >> it's a place.
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it's going to be a humbling experience for the panthers. >> it will be. you'll be watching courtney will be watching. >> who won't be, that's the question >> panthers fan. >> it's core mining. no delean. thanks

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