my sarah. ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm silvia amaro and these are your headlines. donald trump is found guilty on all 34 counts in his hush money trial. making him the first president in history to be guilty of a crime. and the lack bluster note wh more selling on wall street. and chinese factory activity

and services growth both see a surprise slowdown adding to a spate of disappointing data and ramping up calls for further economic stimulus. and hungary's viktor orban backs marie le pen's. leaders need to tackle the issues to win the argument. >> translator: the dominant topics are immigration with the recent farmer protests. if we don't fill the vacuum in which they operate, we will never been successful. we start today's show looking at u.s. politics. this is after donald trump has been found guilty on all 34 counts in his hush money trial making him the first u.s. president in history to be

handed a criminal conviction. he is due to be sentenced on july 11th, just days before the republican party is expected to formally announce him as its candidate for the election. nbc's laura jarrett filed this report. >> reporter: former president donald trump found guilty convicted by a manhattan jury of all charges. now the first american president ever convicted of a crime. jurors found him guilty to cover up a conspiracy over the 2016 election for paying off a porn star before the election. the jury of seven men and five women included two lawyers and two in finance and the foreman in sales. they reached their decision after two days of deliberations after hearing from more than 20 witnesses over six weeks. the case came down to whether jurors would believe the word of

michael cohen, the former attorney and self-described fixer. cohen was the only who tied mr. trump to the crime of falsifying records. he directed him to payoff stormy daniels. she alleged a sexual encounter years before, but mr. trump denied it. the former president was desperate to keep her silent and panicked after the release of the "access hollywood" tape and cover it all up. a scheme to disguise the payoff of vouchers and checks. cohen's credibility was key. the defense team branding the lawyer who had been convicted of lying under oath as the mvp of liars with the axe to grind. mr. trump, who did not testify,

reacting to the verdict tonight attacking the case as politically motivated by the democratic d.a. in deep blue manhattan. >> a rigged trial. a disgrace. they wouldn't give us a venue change. we were at 5% or 6% in this district in this area. this was a rigged, disgraceful trial. the real verdict is going to be november 5th by the people. they know what happened. >> reporter: outside of court? boos and cheers. district attorney alvin bragg reacting to the verdict. >> we arrived at the trial and ultimately this verdict in the same manner as every other case that comes to the courtroom doors, but following the facts and the law. >> this is, no doubt, a key approach as we head to the u.s. election. let's discuss this with our next

guest. good morning, peter. good to have out the show. my question has to be does this matter as we approach the u.s. election? >> good to be with you, silvia. i think it matters. the question is whether it matters enough to tip the balance in a close race from trump to biden. i think there's three group of voters to keep in mind right now. first, there's the 20% of republicans who said repeatedly in polls they won't vote for trump if he was convicted of a felony. second, there are those low information voters who biden has been having a lot of trouble with, but will grasp to the headline of "trump convicted." there are the rich wall street investors currently sitting on

the fence on whether to back donald trump. they have to make a decision now whether they risk sullying their name of being associated with a convicted felon. those are the three, kind of, unknowns that we have to watch develop over the next month or so. >> i want to get your thoughts on what this means for the died campaign. obviously, at this stage, there is a lot on the minds of u.s. voters. you have, obviously, the k conflict in the middle east that will play a role in the upcoming election, the state of the economy and now the developments with donald trump. when you put all of this together, how is it looking for the biden campaign? >> i think in the short-term, this will breathe new life into the biden campaign. it's a bit stalled, i think. it will expand his campaign

coffers. it will give biden another opportunity, especially with the debate coming up, to sharpen the contrast between himself and trump. at the end of the day, i go to what you just mention. i don't think it changes what biden needs to do to win. he needs to convince people that he's delivering on the economy. i mean, it's not the economic performance that's the only issue that the voters will be voting on in november. there's abortion and other issues. polls show it remains a crucial one and the leading one. it could be the difference, really in those industrial heartland states of michigan, wisconsin and especially, i think, the most important one, pennsylvania where the election is likely to being won or lost. i think, frankly, biden still has a lot of work cut out for himself. >> obviously, we don't have an opinion polls just yet after

this ruling from the new york court. ultimately, i would like to get your thoughts on a second donald trump presidency could look like. we know what happened during the first presidency of donald trump. if he returns to the white house, what outcome could we expect from his return? >> well, i think he can make it pretty clear on the campaign that's angry at people that he thinks have unfairly put him in this kind of position. he made that clear after the verdict yesterday. there's been a lot of preparation going on for, you know, clearing out agencies and bureaucracies and kind of repopulating them with, i guess, people that he considers very loyal. i think fin many respects, it

would be a reprieve of the first administration with the emphasis on tariffs and pushing back against america's allies in terms of burden sharing and i think, domestically, the border would be a primary issue for him and i think he'll do everything he can to go back to, you know, a return to the trump tax cuts. >> peter, we're approaching european elections and even though, obviously, we don't have an outcome yet, there are a couple of trends we can identify ahead of that vote. we can expect climate policy where we are unlikely to see momentum like the past. regardless of the next u.s. president, what message will we get from the united states?

>> i think regardless of who is elected, it is certain to be a very close election in a highly polarized country. the message coming out will be that the republic, the united states is deeply divided and that one cannot necessarily count on the commitments that whoever the leader is makes. they could easily be done by the next administration. this is the problem that biden faces right now. biden argued that, you know, america was back and trump was in the rear-view mirror andso forth and he's not. that is something that weighs heavily on allies in europe and it is also very evident when you talk to political leaders and

intellectual leaders in asia as well. they are worried about the strength and durability of america's commitments to the typical rules based order. and the election, you know, is critical in terms of reinforcing views one way or the other about the direction of travel in the united states. >> very clear. thanks for breaking it down for us. we have to leave the conversation there. that was peter trubowitz at the london school of economics. for more on the verdict and what it could mean ahead of the upcoming election, head online to cnbc.com. i want to take you to what's happening in markets in europe. at this stage, we see behind me a bit of a mixed picture. we see the stoxx 600 trading slightly above the flat line. this is actually a different picture from what we had seen in

equity markets on thursday. we saw the stoxx 600 ending the session up by about .60%. what is very interesting here is looking at the week performance, but the month performance because they are telling us different pictures. we'll discuss that in more detail. one highlight for markets today is the upcoming inflation printout of the eurozone due at 10:00 a.m. with that in mind, i want to take you to the main boards in europe to show you more of what is happening with the equity performances. at this stage, we see pockets of green in the uk with the ftse 100 up .30%. similar moves in switzerland, but all in all, the german market is actually struggling to make gains at this stage. in terms of the sector breakdown, this is the picture at the moment in european equities. we have telecoms at the top

up .90%. media is also a higher. one of the main market trends we are seeing this morning, however, is actually interest on the defense stocks when you look at european performance. however, on the down side, travel and leisure down 1.5%. technology is also struggling down 1.2%. this is actually continuing that negative momentum that we had seen also on wall street. yesterday, the tech sector struggled stateside. on top of that, there's just not -- it's about what's happening on the economic front and investors digesting the economic data and particularly the revision on the u.s. gdp. they are also thinking about what's next when it comes to monetary policy. let me take you to the asia performance to show you how asian equities fared. we saw the nikkei 225 closing higher by 1%. that was not the same picture when you think about the hang

seng or the shanghai composite. we got manufacturing activity out of china that disappointed. in fact, they dropped into contraction territory for the month of may as property woes continue to weigh across the economy. the official figure fell to 49.5 missing analyst forecasts of 50.4. refreshing calls for further government stimulus. let's look at the u.s. picture. obviously, one of the main events when you think about the u.s. equities today is pce. at the moment, u.s. futures suggest that it could be a mixed open on wall street. we are also quite naturally focusing on what that pce reading is going to tell investors, particularly what the fed might do next. i want to take you to the month-to-date performance. i was highlighting to you earlier the picture on the week performance and the month

performance is quite different. what do you think of the month month-to-date performance? they are all in the green. the s&p is up 4%. let's look at the tech space. look, the nasdaq up by 7%. my colleagues are showing you how different u.s. tech stocks are performing over the month and it is very, very clear that the out performance of nvidia which is up by 28%. definitely the out performer when you think of the monthly performance as well as apple up 12%. i want to take you to europe month to date. i'm afraid -- over to the right, i believe. actually not. to the left. anyway, there has been a lot happening with the european equities over the month. one of the trends has actually

been the strong corporate earnings. these actually beat expe expectations. many of them beat expectations on the month. that was a positive for european equities. we also saw a lot of dealmaking conversations happening, particularly over here in the uk with that bhp and anglo america saga. let me show you the numbers to my left. the ftse 100 is tracking 1.3% higher for the month. now, when it comes to the opec, this is also going to be a very important one for the markets this weekend. we are going to be looking at crude prices ahead of the opec plus meeting. we'll breakdown what to expect after the break. also, let's look at supply and demand side squeezing the pits out of the orange juice market with the prices surging to all-time highs.

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welcome back to the show, everyone. now, let's look at opec. opec plus members are expected to extend oil production cuts when they mooeteet this weekend. the group is expected to continue at the same level at 2.2 million barrels a day. dan murphy is joining us for more. dan, what are your sources telling you what you can expect from the opec plus meeting this weekend? >> reporter: silvia, oil has been trading in a tight range for the last three weeks or so with uncertainty over the war in gaza and the starting point for fed cuts just two of the key issues keeping traders on their toes. one thing is more certain and that is probably what is going to happen at the opec mooeeetin. opec is meeting virtually. that validates expectations that the cuts are rolled over. i spoke with one analyst this

morning who said it is already been put into the price of oil right now. the question is whether or not we will see these production cuts rolled over just for q3 or for the rest of the year. sourcing would suggest it will be for the rest of the year. whatever the case, though, the decision that opec makes has certainly been put in the spotlight. the stakes have been raised here and that's because the kingdom has confirmed plans to issue more shares in the state of aramco which could raise more than $12 billion. we learned that aramco would offer 1.5 billion aramco shares with the price of 26 to 29 riyals per share. what we know is that figure could actually be a lot higher if it exercises what is called a gr greenshoot option. if it went with the greenshoe option, aramco could raise $13

billion as well. so watch that space. all of this coming as we see the kingdom coming under more pressure to find new sources of funding to advance its economic diversity drive. aramco is set to pay $124 billion to the government this year. we know the financing is being squeezed which could be one of the reasons why aramco is tapping the market to raise this additional capital. back to you. >> very interesting. we will keep a close eye on the market at this stage. prices are actually moving lower. thanks, dan, for your report. let's look at soft commodities. orange juice prices have soared on high brprices driven by bad crops in brazil. to discuss this in detail, i'm pleased to say we have the senior analyst for beverages.

good morning, francois. >> good morning. >> why are we seeing orange juice prices moving this high? >> right. orange juice consumption has been going down. you would expect it would be good news for prices, but the supply side has been under even more pressure. we have seen bad weather and the effects of el niño and you mentioned diseases. inventories were already really, really low. earlier this month, from the citrus brazilian organization, it made a lower forecast for the upcoming harvest which was the nail in the coffin for orange juice. >> for consumers, should they be worried and how expensive will orange juice get for the rest of the year? >> the price you pay in the shop is not the price you get. there is transport and margins.

if you look at the prices before covid, it is already $1 a pound. now we're touching $5 a pound. that has an effect on the price of the orange juice you pay in the shop. at the same time, the consumer is struggling with the cost of living crisis, so itcombination >> consumers should be worried. >> they should be, yes. >> let's look at brazil because they are the largest exporter when it comes to origange juice. they are facing extreme weather and climate change ultimately. can brazil lose its place as the biggest exporter given the circumstances? >> i think it would be difficult. my colleague in brazil just wrote a report on the supply side and his conclusion was that prices well stay higher for longer. i think the big problem is there

is so much scale in brazil. brazil accounts for 80% of the global orange juice trade. for other countries to come in, yes, they could try it, but they couldn't get to the scale of brazil quickly. i think that's the point. the other point that's important to know is that i look at the beer sector as well. if you have the bad barley harvest, more barley will be harvested next year. it takes three years for the countries to grow the fruit. for other countries to come in and take brazil's position would be difficult and a long-term strategy that we need to have. >> i want to talk about beer in a second. first, you mentioned how orange juice prices are going up and consumption, actually, has fallen recently. what is it being replaced with? >> okay, so if you look at fruit juices, the best quality fruit

juice is 100% fruit. you also have nectars with lower fruit content or even flavored water drinks with a little bit of the taste of the fruit. those are cheaper alternatives that are also not as much impacted by higher prices for orig oranges. if you look at the wider consumption of why orange juice, it is not healthy. water has done really well. we don't consume orange juice anymore at anthe breakfast tabl. families are smaller. my kids run out of the house without eating and grab a coffee on the way to school. >> let's talk about beer then. we have a lot of sports events coming. e euros and the olympics. what is the beer consumption coming up for the year and also

talking about the spike increases of prices for beer. is this also a problem for this year? >> we actually are optimistic for beer. i think if you look at the comparison there to last year, we had a terrible summer. if i had been here a week ago, i would say i had a great weekend. the weather has turned bad. we are hoping the weather would be better this summer and help sales of beer. i think, also, the problem that you saw was that wages of consumers were not going up, but costs were immediately after the black sea region invasion. you see that a little bit reversing. the price of barley has come down. the price of natural gas which is important for packages has come down. at the same time, there have been wage increases for consumers. it looks slightly better, but we're not out of the woods yet. >> i'm afraid we have to leave

it there. thank you for joining us this morning. good outlook for beer, but not orange juice. interesting. that was francois at rabobank. to find out more on the orange juice prices and why we could be drinking more grape juice instead, head tocnbc.com. and coming up on cnbc, saxony's kretschmer is saying there are issues on the far right. we will bring you the exclusive interview with annette coming up next. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're

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the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. welcome to "street signs," everyone. i'm silvia amaro and these are your headlines. donald trump is found guilty on all 34 counts of the hush money trial making him the first president in history to be convicted of a crime. u.s. futures point to more selling pressure on wall street, but the nasdaq is on pace for

its best month since november. chinese factory and services growth both see a surprise slowdown adding to a spate of disappointing data and ramping up calls for further economic stimulus. fortifying the far right. viktor orban backs marie le pen as she extends an olive branch. kretschmer says they need to lead the argument. >> translator: the energy policy see overreach with the protests. if we don't fill the vacuum, we will never been successful. welcome back to the show, everyone. i want to show you how u.s. futures are looking at this stage. you can see it on your screen. it is a bit of a mixed picture,

really, but they do suggest it could be a lower start to the trading session on wall street, particularly for the s&p and the nasdaq. this is after we saw, for instance, the nasdaq ending thursday's session down 1%. the dow also lower by .90%. similar moves for the s&p which closed down by about .60%. all eyes today on the key pce figure to understand what the fed might do next. let me bring you back to europe and show you how european equities are trading at this point. we have pockets of green across all of the main boards. i would highlight the moves over here in the uk with the ftse 100 up .30%. the swiss market also gaigai gaining .50%. at this stage, we are seeing investors waiting for the key inflation print from the eurozone due at 10:00 a.m. london time to understand how

the european central bank might cut rates going forward. of course, all eyes on that meeting next week, but the key question for the markets at this stage is what the ecb might do after their june meeting. let me show you some stocks we are monitoring this morning starting with jd sports. they confirmed the full-year outlook despite the drop in sales in the first quarter. you see jd sports at this stage down 10%. the eu commission formally approved the kkr bid to buy the fixed line network. the deal which is worth an estimated $24 billion marks the first time that a former phone monopoly divested its landline grid. you see this morning the telecom italian shares down 1.3%. another stock we are monitoring this morning is renault.

the company announced a partnership with geely to make hybrid eveninngines. it has signed gasoline development partnership with mercedes-benz and at this stage, renault shares are down by 1.6%. when it comes to this space, all eyes as well on the what the european commission will say in the couple weeks time in imposing tariffs on chinese evs. watch this space. let me take you to the bond yields. they are mostly moving higher at this stage. looking at the benchmark in europe, the ten-year yield of the bund is 2.67%. we have been seeing this part of the market holding at about a six-month high. when it comes to what's happening in the united kingdom, the yield trading at 4.36%.

i will tell you about that in more detail in a moment, but one of the dynamics here is not just the economic data, naturally, but also the expectation when it comes to rate cuts. let me show you how u.s. treasuries have fared so far. when it comes to the u.s. market, it is also an important one to monitor, particularly, as we approach the pce release later today. at the moment, we have seen the u.s. two-year yield at 4.4 9%. the ten-year yield is 4.56%. let's see what could happen in this part of the market later on today as we receive that key print from the pce and ultimately what markets will expect when it comes to what the fed might say. let's not forget the expectations for fed cuts have gotten lower and lower so far

this year. when you put all of this together, let's look at the month performance. we are looking at the, for instance, the ten-year stateside. one dynamic in the market, the month of may, we have shave bai seen weak performance throughout the month. i told you today that the yield is at 4.56% at this stage. look at how it has changed throughout the month. when it comes to the bond market in europe, however, we have seen more interest in the european bond markets at this stage exactly because the investors are believing that the ecb and the bank of england as we will move when it comes to rate cuts ahead of the fed.

let me take you to politics. the hungarian prime minister viktor orban backed marie will he le pen's call. the far right is expected to perform well in the european elections which takes place the 6th to the 9th of june. the coalition of right-wing parties would become the second largest bloc. orban says the future of the right in europe now rests in the hands of the two women. a bit of a change when it comes to european politics. kretschmer wand rned about the shift to the far right which he says is under way in europe. >> translator: it's a big threat which certainly is exacerbated by the media revolution and influence from outside europe.

we are seeing this everywhere. not just in europe and france. democrats are challenged to solve the problems important to people. the topic of migration has been an issue for years. it has led to unhappiness. when it comes to eu politics, it leads to criticism especially with the amount of regulation. we can't talk about reducing bureaucracy and come up with s solutions with the supply chains. >> this is coming as economies cross the eu are looking to counter trade tensions around the world. >> translator: so far, we only felt the beginning of the negative consequences. we don't have a solution for the strong economic growth. the flinflation reduction act i astonishing, but we don't have

an answer. our measures to build up hydrogen are not fast enough compared to what the u.s. is doing. on the other side, we have china and the issue of solar cells. there are two issues here that are important. one is our own competitiveness mentioned by the french president. we need to talk about energy supplies and cost in germany. how much will it cost in the future? is germany headed in the right direction? macron put a big question mark at the end of these sentences. i think he is right. i don't think we should forget the chinese solar panels are directly connected to the closure of the u.s. market. we in europe, with 450 million people, need to found our own strong position toward the u.s. and also toward china. we should be a bull between the two powers that fly from one side to the other.

we need to ask what is our own strength and how can we enforce it. in the meantime, goldman sachs sees stronger protections with four key mega trends with a.i. boosting the sector. i'm pleased to say the chairman of infrastructure at goldman sachs alternatives joins me in the studio. good to have you in the studio. let's talk about the opportunities in infrastructure. where are they? >> it is worth stepping back and thinking about what is infrastructure. it is the physical backbone our societies need to function. think of transports, roads, ports, airports. you think of energy and utilities and all of the complex to transport and store energy. think of digital infrastructure from mobile phone towers to the data centers and social infrastructure. i think we see a conference of

factors today that is extraordinary whereby there is an energy crisis or climate crisis where we are in a rush to reach net zero. we have an energy security crisis with the war in ukraine and we have to be more independent with sourcing our energy. then you have the revolution of data centers and artificial intelligence. that requires a lot of energy. just on the energy side of things, there's such a need for energy and clean energy. you look at transports. there is a massive need of capital to upgrade and maintain the existing infrastructure. just looking at the digital transport and energy is a massive capital. >> i want to share some numbers you shared with us ahead of the interview. it has grown from 1.2 trillion. you are expecting it to reach $1.7 trillion by 2028. could you give us a little bit

more detail on why is this going up? ultimately, can governments or is this private money stepping in when you look at the high levels at this stage? >> it sis a relatively young asset class. it was born out of the privatization in the 1980s of state-owned assets of transport energy. it has been a slow growth starting in the late '80s. we have started investing 20 years ago in infrastructure. private funds, aums, were $50 billion at the statime. you mentioned $1.2 trillion today. the forecast is to get to close to $2 trillion by the end of the deca decade. one, on the supply of capital, it is becoming legitimate. on the demand side, it is the massive need for capital that is

needed for investment. one thing i would say is if you think about the amounts that are required to fund tomorrow's infrastructure, they dwarf everything that has been spent to build yesterday's infrastructure. i think the growth trajectory is not stopping. the last point to your question, the governments with budgets under pressure, do not have the means to fund that infrastructure. it has to be a public-private p partnership. >> i want to get your thoughts on what could be the impact of politics on this market. recently, we have seen a bit of a change from rhetoric from polit politicians, particularly in europe. perhaps we can't be as strict and as ambitious becoming carbon neutral and so on. the momentum we had seen in the past toward the green transition has boosted some investments.

are you concerned as politicians change their rhetoric a little bit, that perhaps this momentum will actually dissipate? >> yes, we have always been focused on the fact it is an asset class in the spotlight by definition because it is touching the full population of every country. the political risk and reputational risk is important. where we focus is on places where you do not depend on subsidies. you do not depend on government help. you are looking at the places where you can return capital on the cap ex doesn't depend on subsidies. if you go back the last 20 years, you have seen times when investors have been hurt by government policies and changes in government policies. you need to make sure by the time you spend capital, it is derisked and you have contracts.

we prefer private contracts as much as possible. >> let's look at inflation. this is an element when you think about this asset class. obviously, inflation lines are easing so far, but what could be the impact of prolonged periods of inflation for infrastructure investment? >> the good thing about infrastructure is that it's a recipient of inflation. it is a real asset. you have pricing power either through the contracts where you receive inflation and index on inflation or because of your pricing power, you have an an ability to pass the inflation to your customers. net-net in the inflation environment infrastructure benefits. no doubt, that obviously leverage is a big part of the achievement in return. higher interest rates and cost of debt goes up. i think infrastructure is defined by focusing on the resiliency and downside protection and not too much on leverage. if you look at the current

portfolio, the net debts to value is around 50%. actually, you have a huge bever buffer, if you want. there's high margin businesses. the margin in the portfolio is around 50%. >> thank you very much for your time. that was chairman of the infrastructure at goldman sachs alternatives. coming up on the show, attention turns to the u.s. pce data due later today. we'll discuss what to expect next. hi. i'm wolfgang puck when i started my online store wolfgang puck home i knew there would be a lot of orders to fill and i wanted them to ship out fast that's why i chose shipstation shipstation helps manage orders reduce shipping costs and print out shipping labels it's my secret ingredient shipstation the number 1 choice of online sellers

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switch to comcast business and get started for $49.99 a month. plus, ask how to get up to an $800 prepaid card. call today! welcome back to street signs." i want to tell you about the key economic data we are awaiting for today. that is the april pce inflation data. the economists expect the core end headline to remain unchanged from the march levels with the expectations of sticky inflation meaning the fed to hold rates higher today. i have our guest with us.

good morning. first and foremost, what are your expectations for the pce d data? >> i believe the data will be below consensus of 0.3%. i believe it will be less in the range of 0.25%. that should be seen as an easing sign. >> looking at what that could actually mean for the fed, you know, expect tations have chang with the rate cuts. what do you think we will get from the fed? >> the fed will not rush in straightaway with cuts. you have seen president biden come with a list of things he would like to tariff, not just evs. if the probability of president trump getting election gains momentum, then it will be clear what will happen to tariffs. you feel the fed will look at the data and think if the tariff

is going to come down the line, that complicated things for pce and inflation. how much should you cut now and that is my big worry. on the short term, i think the economy is fine. it is slowing down a bit. that will be buffeted by rate cuts. to me, the escalation of tariff wars by president biden or president trump is catastrophic. >> is this the biggest risk here for what the fed will do here? >> absolutely. i think that is the biggest risk. for what we have seen now, the earnings are still good. you are seeing the wealth effect with the house prices and sitting and making money. nothing stops that. what really stops that and brings that to an end is election events and what happens from there on and president trump is on record that he's going to use tariffs. we saw president biden using the list. we saw the risk scenario over

the next six months. >> very interesting. some of the latest commentary from the fed officials suggests there could be room for rate hikes. what are the chances that we are actually going to see the fed increasing rates before it starts cutting them? >> i think highly unlikely. i point to the last fed president we had, cahairman powell asked for a scenario and that was a cut scenario. also, the data we got yesterday with con sulgsumption coming dod the fed wants to cut rates and the fed should be cutting rates. the fed should be mindful. i believe they will cut rates before that anyway regardless of what happens in november. >> i want your opinion from the comment we got from a different

guest. he said the fed has no idea when it comes to the inflation picture in the u.s. do you agree with this statement? >> we have to say all of this is forecast. sometimes you forecast down the line and it is all path de depe dependent. my scenario may come true with a 50-point cut in november post something catastrophic happening. one can talk in terms of i expect 75-basis rate cut for the full year. it may come in 25 in november and 50 in december. the economy is showing signs of slowing down. only the fed will not do is if tariffs come in and that brings the pce coming in higher than forecast. >> let's bring in timing. a lot of concern among market players were the diffivergence h the fed and ecb and the england. who will move first?

>> ecb. ecb will cut on june 16th when they meet. when we talk about the u.s. elections coming down the line, the aggregate demand in the u.s. is 11% higher from the pre-covid levels. the amount in this level is 2% lower than pre-covid levels. why do we have the high rates in the uk? i don't get it. everyone was waiting for the fed to move and we would follow-up. to me, there is a lack of leadership i see everywhere. on the economic front. >> it is such an interesting moment to look at all of this and whether you go from inflation or central banks. thank you for backi breaking it down for us. i want to take you to the action in the european equities as we approach the end of the show. at this stage, we are seeing most of the main boards in europe trading in the green.

this as we await the key inflation printout of the eurozone at 10:00 a.m. london time. now, elsewhere, we are seeing the trump media shares down in pre-market trade. lower by 8%. this is, obviously, after the news that donald trump was convicted in his hush money trial. br briefly taking a look at u.s. futures. it could suggest a lower start to the trading week on wall street with the s&p and nasdaq continuing the negative momentum we saw on thursday's session. that is it for our show. i'm silvia amaro and "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. take full control of your brand with your own custom store. scale faster with tools that let you manage every

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. i'm dominic chu in for frank holland on this friday morning. here is your "five@5." wall street gets set for its final day of may trading. futures are in a bit of a holder pattern. key for investors is the pce inflation report andwhat it could mean for the fed's summery rate playbook and everything else playing out before the opening