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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  May 31, 2024 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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awesome. ♪ ♪ [ inner monologue ] my path became clear. ♪ ♪ i knew what i had to do. because they never stop. no time to waste. this isn't sci-fi. this is precision ai. ♪ ♪ . good afternoon welcome to "power lunch. with kelly, i'm tyler mathisen the dow is higher today, not by much, but it is in the green we have been down five of the previous six days. and all five losing days were 200 points or more the one up day was 4, not 400,
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just 4 points. >> the s&p is performing the least poorly, we can say, down about 2% the nasdaq is down more than 2.5% week to date. today it is chip stocks weighing on tech. nvidia, lower by 2%. super micro, the biggest decliner, 7% decline and dell hitting the skids today. a.i. helped boost the revenues but hurt profit margins. down almost 20% right now. hp and hewlett packard enterprise falling 6 to 7% as well. >> zoom out further, the major averages still on track for a winning month of may the nasdaq still up 5% for the month. so how should we view the market action as we close the books on may and turn to june let's bring in mike bailey, director of research with fbb capital partners and mike santoli, a pair of mikes, cnbc senior markets commentator. mike bailey, let me begin with you. if i'm reading the notes correctly, you have a rather
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shall i call it benign view of what the market may do from here you think that corporate earningearn ings may pull stocks along >> i think that's a good summary in terms of what we're looking at listen, this is "power lunch," let's do a food analogy. we have come through a nice meal, macros are pretty good, inflation is coming down, we're getting this goldilocks earnings generally a pretty good earnings season so pretty good meal. however, we just got this kind of terrible dessert at the end some of the software companies, salesforce and others blowing up that's what we're looking for for the broader markets. we're putting everything together, looking at the last several weeks in general our view is that we're going to see markets it into perform. stocks are chasing earnings. overall earnings look pretty good if you take out the software companies that's our general view. we'll see a continuation of some
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of the move. we'll have to see. we'll get adobe earnings in a couple of weeks. that will be another data point for investors. >> there is the benign view, give us the counterargument here, whether you agree with it or not what would those who are more skeptical about the market say today? >> i think, first of all, tyler, you would observe the market itself has been a bit erratic. a majority of stocks underperformed this month and also this year there has been this defensive leadership, especially recently among the megacap tech stocks. seeing reversal of that yesterday and today. it seems to be the catalyst in the form of treasury yields going higher they backed off for two days the point is, i think the macro has to remain in a relatively contained path, you know, disinflation has to be persuasive enough that it is still under way. you can't have the overall economy slow too much. earnings, i agree, are the big support right here probably one of the reasons the market is insulated from big sudden downside. but i also feel as if the april
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pullback 5% maybe is somewhat incomplete, didn't really refresh people's need to kind of rebuild their exposures and get bullish again. they never got bearish >> i think that's interesting, mike bailey. i was asking earlier about brent which is evidently is starting to kind of turn lower, however you describe it exactly. what do you want the market to show us at this point? it has been very strong. but is it starting to tell us maybe its energy is flagging, mike bailey? >> yeah, there is a little bit of that. i think in some ways the execution risk is starting to get amped up a little bit. we got some high growth companies, the new economy, some of the software companies under some pressure. that is raising some questions among investors broadly. is the a.i. trade ver, is it just a one off but i think a couple of things, there is going to be pressure, especially on these higher growth tech companies to execute. by the way, stocks are up, valuations are up, there is a less margin for error. so companies really do need to execute.
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it is going to take a few weeks for us to get more companies, more data points to support that i go back to overall pretty good earnings season, that gives us some confidence we're in good shape. we need to see some better execution, especially in some software companies. >> mike santoli, some people we have talked to on the past couple of days actually believe that the next move by the fed will be to raise rates, not lower them what do you think the trajectory of yields is likely to be. do you think -- what are you hearing on that particular point about maybe higher rates to quash inflation, not lower ones? >> yeah, i tend to doubt that we're particularly close to getting to that point, where you have to move the entirety of the fed's existing rhetoric and bias, that is essentially still saying, yeah, we might roll forward the day of the first cut, but right now, they're sticking to this idea and john williams, new york fed this week, they still buy their models and framework and say policy is restrictive. a lot of things they look at suggest there is still this sort of slowing under way and
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disinflation should kick back in, so i think it takes a lot to steer in the other direction, given how far along they have gone, along that path. now, in terms of how yields go from here, you know, i mean, i think that 5% on the ten-year has been i hadhistorically a li bit of a significant barrier in terms of when yields become particularly hostile in this range, right now, it feels as if the economy and the market can make peace with it. we were at 4.5% yields in late september of last year and the s&p was a thousand points lower. clearly when earnings are growing, you can be okay with yields if they're not shooting higher and if the fed is not forcibly trying to restrain the economy. >> mike bailey, you remind people that semis are traditionally a pretty volatile part of the market they experience bust cycles. maybe we'll still yet see one with some of our leading enl p edge players like nvidia for nosthose who are worried, we
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would you be looking in terms of what stocks to own here? >> i think you can own semis make sure you're diversified and don't put everything on to one particular company if you want growth in tech and diversify away from semis, look at amazon. not a tech company, but that's what it does as markets have gotten more expensive, amazon has gotten less expensive that is compelling to us, it is growing very nicely. the last time amazon was this cheap, we were talking about iphone 4, the flash crash. this is 14 years ago i would argue amazon say much better company, more growth drivers, a pretty compelling business a lot of people own it there is plenty of runway for this thing to keep going. >> i remember the flash. mike santoli remembers the flash crash. >> sure. may of 2010, right >> always, you can ask mike santoli, we got to bring back the trivia gentlemen, thank you, both appreciate it. mike santoli and mike bailey let's get to the bond market ten year is lower after this
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morning's inflation data rick santelli has the latest. >> treasury yields are lower on the day. the ten-year, as you look the a chart that starts last friday, still a couple of basis points higher on the week what is the motivation for these moves? let's go to our guest chem and the white board here chem, this is a pretty easy read here, okay here is our income data, the florida metrics for inflation embedded into the number if you look at the top, is it -- this is last month, this is this month. what conclusions can you draw? >> stagnation, inflation stagf stagflation, right this is what we have been talking on and on. people call it a soft landing. it is not a soft landing still a hot inflation number with a slowing economy >> yeah, there is very little doubt. these numbers are smaller and the consumption went negative and it has been negative over the last four months and if you look at yesterday's gdp, what did that tell us on consumption?
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>> same thing. >> same thing. >> things are coming down. >> when everything has the consumers' ability to keep consuming so integral, these are big changes. and once again, just so people understand, viewers, listeners, these are the metrics of inflation. only the month over month core was lower and if you really look it up, this number was, like, .248, okay if you look at the websites, they put it out at .25 they round it. but we're only, what, .3 away from making that equal the last month. my point isn't to belittle the numbers, my point is to pay attention to them. >> that's right. there is structural inflationary courses and we can start to cyclically slow them down but that inflation will continue to be pretty hot. that's the biggest point. >> you were a little bit late coming to thespot. maybe we should tell viewers what goes on at the end of the month when you're an options trader >> well, look, at the end of the day this an end of month and
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beginning of month when the month is up, 6% for the month decent run at the end of the month, there is reinvestment, releveraging that happens in portfolios we're getting this soft -- broken down technically a bit. you get a big pushback coming into the end of the month. on top of that, three holidays coming up, two more holidays coming up, it is really slow, low liquidity and that context you're getting a lot of flows with the big quarterly expiration. >> real quickly, real quickly, tell our viewers what that all means. >> you have the whole world in the options world, the dealers are short the puts and short stocks so every day that goes by, when the vol comes back, there is a buyback of deltas every day, and big expirations, big exposure means more of those flows. so these are the market forces, the structures at work underneath the market that push things higher, even in the
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context of what might be weak news >> tail wagging the dog? >> right now it is flows, flows, flows, first and foremost. >> always a pleasure such a knowledgeable trader. tyler, have a good weekend, and back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. and, folks, coming up in the moments following the trump guilty verdict, both the trump and biden camps sent out fund-raising requests to supporters, showing the verdict could be a boost to both campaigns' war chests. that story is next on "power lunch" when we come right back ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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lunch. as soon as the verdict was announced last night, former president trump convicted on 34 counts, both campaigns immediately kicked up their fund-raising efforts megan costello has more. >> that's exactly right. so we're seeing former president donald trump and his campaign working to fund-raise off this guilty verdict in a major way. the campaign said this morning that it had raised nearly $35 million yesterday after the verdict from small dollar donors the campaign says nearly 30% of those were contributing for the first time now, down ballot we're seeing some momentum too, both the nrse and the nrcc, the republican campaign arms for the house and the senate, they say they set records with their fund-raising yesterday, raising $300,000 for the house and $360,000 for the senate it is not just the small dollar donors lining up behind trump either venture capitalist shawn mcguire donated, and david saks, a venture capitalist who is co-hosting a fund-raiser for trump in california next week,
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saying that the dam is beginning to break when it comes to silicon valley support for trump. the biden team is also looking to raise money here. no dollar figures yet from the democrats, but their push to supporters have centered on the idea that the only way to keep trump from the white house is out the ballot box in november and, i should add we have now heard from both trump and biden today, trump is calling this a sham trial, while biden is saying it is dangerous to say the justice system is rigged both candidates will now be taking that case to their voters to see if it can make a difference before november kelly? >> i heard, megan, some commentators last evening pointing to the small dollar donors who have been so prevalent in the trump fund-raising in the wake of the trial verdict kind of pooh-pooh the fact these were not bigger donors couldn't one argue that the fact that there are so many small dollar donors be a positive for the trump campaign
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in other words, it means so many of them are new donors that it suggests it is not just the volume of money, but it is the number of people represented by that money that really matters here >> absolutely. i think that's what's so important here, when you can see a widespread breadth of support really, that makes a big difference of course, money matters all of this money for both will go a long way. at the end of the day, you have to have voters casting ballots and supporting you so the fact that the trump camp says they have 30% of their donations from new people, that means they're getting folks engaged for the first time with their campaign they're going to try to parlay that into further donations and into better support and more discussion about president trump, more support and, of course, more votes in november so, the megadonors have a major role to play here and it is interesting that we're seeing so many line up behind trump, but the small donors, as you say,
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are at least as important. >> i was interested by my friend larry last hour with you saying, hey, remember, it is still may >> it is still may. >> there is a lot of time. a lot can happen a lot can happen and probably will. >> right and also saying the outcome broadly speaking, congress, the white house, looks very close and very close, if that means gridlock is that the biggest takeaway, a lot of noise, but not a lot to conclude policy-wise we'll see. >> fascinating stuff further ahead, facebook has had a lot of problems over the years, but one hurdle it has not been able to get over is gen z saying it is for old people. now it may be seeing growth in younger users. what is causing the change are the young people coming back to their parents' social media platform we'll be right back. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds.
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1.26%. look at the bitcoin trading, right now, around 67,000 off the recent highs but up 150% in a year. 67,264, down 1500 today. that's 2%. that gain is not keeping some former bitcoin minors from chasing the next hot thing, a.i., but mackenzie sagalos is in austin, texas, with more. hi, mackenzie. >> hey there is of course a surge in demand for a.i. compute and infrastructure and a growing number of bitcoin miners are retro fitting their massive facilities to help meet that need. publicly traded firms like core scientific, hut 8 have launched a.i. operations. they're looking to beef up their revenue streams after halving back in april. core, which emerges from bankruptcy in january, tells cnbc that it has been
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diversifying beyond bitcoin for five years now >> best way to think about bitcoin mine facilities is we're power shells to the data center industry so the retro fit back to hpc is easier than one would think. there are components we have to purchase to retro fit, but it is things we can easily acquire >> pivoting from bitcoin mining to a.i. isn't as simple as repurposing existing infrastructure it means the processors purpose built for crypto mining and replacing them with gpus digital asset fund manager coin shares said in a report even though a.i. operations demand up to 20 times the capital expenditure compared to bitcoin mining, they're more capital efficient and profitable the companies like hive and hut 8 are seeing a positive impact on their revenue structures, currently bit digital derives 27% of revenue from a.i. hut 8 at 6%. >> there is certainly a lot of
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talk about the power demand that, number one, a.i. does, but number two, that bitcoin mining brings are the two sort of compounding that problem when they get together, a.i. and bitcoin, you have a multiplier effect on the power grid demand and the problems that it could cause. >> that's a great question energy demand is still something that these miners are perfecting a lot of them are looking at using clean energy simply because it is the cheapest in many markets and industry report estimates that the bitcoin network is 55% powered by sustainable electricity. miners also say another benefit of their business is that they can power down if demand is high the core ceo says they're already working with the grid to figure out how certain a.i. applications can be shut off to cut energy use meanwhile, new data out today and to your point, tyler, signs that data centers could use up
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to 9% of the u.s.' power by 2030, double what it is today. so tapping into nuclear energy is seen by many as the answer to meeting that demand. bitcoin miner tara wolf runs on nuclear and a big mining name jumping into powering machine learning. >> mackenzie, thank you very much speaking of a.i., demand for energy is a big reason why solar stocks out of nowhere are having their best month in more than a year pippa stevens who always smells so good, i always know when she's here, she is here with that side of the story. >> flowers, sun, it all comes together so they are down today, but still up about 18% this month. that is the tan. and it actually saw its first month of inflows so far this year and, of course, it all comes down to the power demand from a.i. and data centers. and basically the understanding that all of these are going to require so much new solar wind facilities and the fact they're built by tech companies, all the tech companies have these net zero goals and they also have deeper pockets, more flexibility
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on the ppa side. so now wall street is saying, companies like first solar will be the big beneficiary, that stock up 50% so far this year. so, that name, other names like next tracker all in the utility space. that seems to be more just because of all this momentum behind energy and actual fundamental case because they still remain very challenged by higher rates so kind of distinguishing between utility and residential. >> pippa, thank you very much. pippa stevens reporting there. over to contessa brewer with for cnbc news update contessa >> president biden this afternoon outlined the road map for an israeli cease-fire proposal in gaza three phases first, a cease-fire for six weeks, which would allow people to return to their homes and during that time, israel and hamas would negotiate a permanent end to the war phase two would see the release of all remaining living hostages, and israeli withdrawal and the last phase would be a major reconstruction plan for
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gaza we will wait to hear how israel responds to that proposal. house republicans are demanding testimony from manhattan district attorney alvin bragg and other top prosecutors who worked on the former president's hush money trial. the house judiciary's, quote, weaponization of government, unquote, subcommittee, which is led by trump ally jim jordan, called for that testimony june 13th and members of the swedish pop sensation group abba reunited today to receive a prestigious knighthood from the country's king the 1970s band sold an estimated 385 million records, including hits like "dancing queen" and "waterloo" and the one i lobby to have as the cnbc theme song "money, money, money." >> i did see that show i thought the play on broadway was very good. >> you didn't grow up on the music? >> no. >> how could you not >> i knew "dancing queen."
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now i know a few more. >> fantastic. >> i'll back your petition i'll sign it. >> i have to go answer the call from the lawyers who are worried we're going to get sued because -- >> you went more than a bar. >> yeah. >> contessa, thank you. coming up, a barrage of cyberattacks has been hobbling companies across multiple industries healthcare, luxury hotels. they're all experiencing security breaches and receiving ransom demands after the break, we'll look at how the attacks are transforming and which companies and stocks could offer solutions. ♪ ♪ engineered to minimize noise. and built for adventure. which can also be your own quiet cabin in the woods. the fully electric q8 e-tron. an electric vehicle that recharges you. how we get there matters.
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welcome back to "power lunch. the nasdaq more than 1%. 1.3%, or 222 points. software names contributing to those declines and steve kovach has the names and the numbers for us >> they're all feeling the pain. look at the tech software etf down 7% on the week so far and it is on pace for its third negative month in a row. and some notable individual laggards that are components of that etf, sales fosforce and get
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lab. and mongo db down 25% so far after trimming its fiscal year guidance though it is not a pure software name, look at dell shares down more than 17% now, following its earnings report, even though its a.i. server business grew 42%. the problem, no profits and all that sales growth. similar to what we saw from salesforce earnings earlier this week, the lesson here, it is not enough to tell an amazing a.i. story, that's priced into many of the software names already, and investors looking for a.i. margins and profits. and finally, somewhat related, you have snowflake shares down today, following a report its technology was breached and used for recent hacks against ticketmaster and santander bank. shares down off 4.5% >> wow just so many of these reports -- it is unbelievable with this many years into it and it is still such a problem with all
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the hacks. in recent months, a barrage of cyberattacks have plagued companies with hackers breaking into the digital vaults of united health group, christie's and mgm in vegas they demand big ransoms or threaten to inflict bigger damage on thursday, a group claims it breached the data of 560 million ticketmaster users globally. the recent cyberattack according to multiple reports. joining us to talk about that and what is going on more broadly, dave kennedy, co-founder and chief hacking officer of binary defense. good to see you again. and, do they just keep getting bigger what is going on here? >> i think you're seeing a lot of success with these ransomware groups look a few years ago, and they're getting 00,000, 200,000 type of payouts and they moved to a much larger organization, you saw united mgm, caesars and the payouts are astronomical a group out of russia is estimated to have over $300 million in ransomware payments
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alone. they're making a ton of money going after larger organizations. they build better weapons to attack the organizations and companies, more efficient in what they do, they get affiliates that help them go after the big companies. it is scaling, it is a whole other business revenue model for these organized crime groups and they're going after some of the largest companies in the world now, they're having that much success. >> if you were consulting as i assume you do to some of these big companies and the company, let's say united health is subject to an attack or ticketmaster or whomever, and they face ransomware, who would you tell them to do? pay it >> it is such a tough decision when you're in these organizations. some of them, you know if they don't pay it, they're going out of business. i've been in meetings before, i had the ceo break down because they have to pay a ransom because their business is going to go out of business if they don't. and other cases, you know, you may be able to recover and it is a painful process during that period of time you look at what mgm is able to do they experienced over $110 million worth of damage but did not pay the ransom
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caesars paid $15 million for the ransom because it was the easiest way to recover my advice is based on the situation, you know, always to not pay the ransom if at all possible but, again, if the business can't operate, they're going to go out of business if they don't. sometimes the only option is to pay the ransom >> does this mean that cybersecurity is not working what do we know about the cyberdefenses each of these companies had in place prior to the event? >> these companies have full fledged cybersecurity programs, but the issue you run into is scale. the larger you are as an organization, the larger your attack surface becomes more ports and protocols and things and more services you use from third parties, cloud providers, which creates opportunities for these attacks to be successful it really only takes one user if you look at the case of mgm, they're able to use a.i. voice modulation to remove russian accents, call up the help desk and impersonate somebody these are sophisticated attacks, very difficult to protect against. it is not that cybersecurity isn't working, it is just the scale of the organizations and
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companies and how they're modeling how they look at their organization's growth and capacity, technology, you know, increases complexity with an organization, if they don't have a solid security program based on the foundations, you know, it gets very difficult and challenging for these organizations to scale their cybersecurity programs, let alone the technology footprint. >> let me ask the same question in a different way are the bad guys winning or are the good guys winning? who is ahead here? >> it is tough because you look at russia, for example, and every country is kind of known or home locations are always known for their delicacies, look at chicago, you have your pan pizzas, ohio, known for their majestic pierogis. russia is known for the organized crime groups and how they have impunity within the russian government you have these groups that are making hundreds of millions of dollars, setting out hundreds of millions of dollars of research and development and sophistication and cybersecurity programs that maybe have $5 million to $10 million, 5% to 6% of the overall i.t. budget
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the scapa scaleability is defin outweighed when you get to china, russia, north korea it is a hard scaling issue the companies are trying as much as they possibly can, but unfortunately we're still really behind the curve across the united states, across all organizations and companies when it comes to trying to withstand these types of attacks >> they don't have unlimited cash to throw at this situation. and if they're going to get hacked anyway, with ransom demanded, why waste, just to choose a figure, a million dollars on cybersecurity that won't prevent an tattack, when you can pay $15 million if it is demanded of you. it is a weird situation. do you just take the risk or do you pay the money and get sick anyway have bills anyway is the industry able to function is there something more that needs to be done regulatory-wise to try to help the companies
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out? >> that's a great analogy on the payment versus having to invest in cybersecurity if we were able to go in and disable paying ransoms, the groups would shut down in three to six months, but the united states would experience a substantial amount of pain so regulatory-wise, absolutely there is things we can do to reduce the impact of these ransomware groups and the amount of money they're getting they want to go through the pain and suffering of organizations that wouldn't be able to recover from these i think the big thing here on cybersecurity is that, you know, it is all about reducing risk. it is not about eliminating risk you get insurance, it is helping with situations that you didn't think would actually occur cybersecurity is very much the same thing these organizations really need to focus on is reducing the risk in their core critical systems like customer information and intellectual property, trade secrets, focus on those scaleability-wise and work on the rest of the organization as you go along a lot of them miss that and try
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to secure everything which isn't possible. >> interesting the cyber stocks have done very well it feels like they need to show more for what they're doing. >> we have to get better these are large breaches, and they're only going to grow, get larger and impact many more people we're seeing these happen all the time now time to step up and defend our personal information, and intellectual property and everything else we have here. >> and the whole industry. thank you for joining us we appreciate it dave kennedy with binary all righty meta claiming facebook has seen growth in the number of young users, thanks mostly to its new a.i. tools, but are we actually seeing a shift in the social media area that is next we'll explore it when we return.
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users from 18 to 29 on facebook in years meta credits a.i. with tiktok's fate still up in the air, could meta finally have a leg up let's bring in andrew selapak from the university of florida and julia boorstin julia, let's start with you. what do these numbers show and how surprising are they in light of the fact that it is not just maybe people of a certain age coming back to meta, but to facebook specifically. >> yeah, we're seeing this strength out of facebook for -- i'm saying facebook, meaning the facebook app, this is not referring to the greater company and to instagram but the facebook app is seeing strength for two specific reasons. one is reels, the short form video format that was so successful for tiktok. meta has implemented reels on instagram and facebook and it is working. the company saying the watch
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time in the u.s. and canada grew over 80% from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024 the other factor at play here is a.i. the a.i. algorithm is working to recommend content that people want to watch and those are the two key features that are driving this growth in that core facebook platform. >> and andrew, what do you make of this? and is it -- could it be in part that people are aging out of tiktok and moving back to something that is more familiar? could it be that people are worried that, well, maybe tiktok is going to go away and i better choose brand x here? >> i think it is a combination of factors definitely that there has been a lot of discussion about the dangers of tiktok. problems with tiktok, possible ban of tiktok. meta being facebook and instagram looked at how much of their audience has gone over to tiktok and tried to replicate some of the things with reels. and i think also important to keep in mind when we're looking at 18 to 29, that's a very wide
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age range. that includes both some gen z and some millennials the big thing with the millennials, they're now out of college, getting jobs, moving away, one of the big things they want to do is stay connected to those people from their past that's just not something you would do on tiktok >> yeah, sort of serve two different -- >> it is really -- the advantage, i suppose, of facebook, the app, as julia so correctly phrases it, is that it is really a social community, i guess more than an entertainment community. am i right there, andrew >> yeah. it is one of the big things we look at, the differences between some of the apps and, you know, social media platforms. the biggest thing is that tiktok is really a media app. it is an entertainment app where as when you look at facebook, instagram, those are much more about your social connections. and people have that still need, desire, want for community and connections. and you're not going to find that on tiktok you're going to find that on
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facebook, which, you know, to be quite honest was what zuckerberg originally said he wanted for the platform >> yeah, i mean, what is interesting here is mark zuckerberg said he wanted facebook to be a utility, and while we have seen these additional components come to play like reels, there are two new stats out from facebook just today that really indicate how this platform facebook is a utility. they use marketplace, where people go to buy and -- >> love marketplace. >> they see it as their go to destination. and more than 1.8 billion users engage in facebook groups every month. we talk about maintaining your social network, but groups are also maintaining your community. those two factors really speak to what we're talking about here, this being a utility. >> my wife is on facebook marketplace, selling stuff most of the time, cleaning closets,
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giving her all the shoes i gave her that i don't like. thank you. >> i wish we wore the same size. probably twice as big. after the break, key bank is bullish on mcdonald's, specifically pointing to its efforts to close the affordability gap. is that enough to convince investors? we'll trade that in three stock lunch. as we head to break, we're celebrating asian american native hawaiian and pacific islander heritage month. here is maya dora, mcdonald's field president. >> for the most important memory i have growing up is when i worked in a flea market. that is owned by my cuzzen in the philippines. it gave me a great crash course on business ack acumen. i can lose everything in my career, but not my accent. the accent is who i am the value i hold true to myself.
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it's time for today's three stock lunch. malcolm etheridge has our trades, cic wealth management's executive vice president and cnbc contributor
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good to see you. let's begin with mcdonald's grappling with those value meals they're rolling out while franchisee costs and frustration are rising the shares are hire today but down 14% year to date. are you a buyer here >> yeah, i actually think this one is a buy i know a lot of the attention, like you said, has been around the $5 meal deal you got the folks on social voicing opinions on whether this should become a staple rather than a temporary promotion you got the franchisees dete wondering how this will affect the bottom line. i think it's the forecast to grow restaurant count by 4% to 5% over the next fivers because that translates -- five years because that translates to, what that translates to is the up-front fees they collect from each of the franchisees each time they sign someone up, plus the 5% each year that they're collecting as their revenue share. >> let's move on to gap. we did a big segment about the return of denim. shares up about 25% as earnings
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beat on sales growth at all four of its brand and raised its full-year guidance what's your trade on gap it's been in the revenue doldrums for several years >> consider me a skeptic i rate this a sell i know shares of the gap performed well the last six months or so, but year over year growth is down 6% in fiscal '22, another 5% in fiscal '23 and guiding better for '24 for a company trading at 16 times i think now times forward earnings were that's concerning to me when you compare that to other competitors like american eagle which state department at 14, urban outfitters at 11.5 gap's not a better run company than those guys which means it's trading at an unrealistic premium here >> interesting >> unrealistic premium all right. let's get to ulta beauty they reported earnings yesterday showing the effects of a slowdown with the ceo outlining plans to boost sales shares are slightly higher but
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off the best of the levels of the day, the winner of the 2010s. what do you do with it now, malcolm? >> so there was something that was discussed in the ulta call that got me interested in this one. i know they had a tough start to the year, to put it mildly, but the big buying opportunity setting up here is where they talked about plans to expand into mexico. the reason that's significant is because there's not a dominant beauty brand there yet sephora just entered that country a couple of years ago, and ulta has some of the most loyal customers there are in the category so down about 30% from their most recent high i think investors in this name are getting a chance to buy into that expansion at a -- decent discount >> there you have it picking it up. bullish on mexico. thank you so much. we appreciate your time today. remember, you can always hear us on our podcast, be sure to follow and listen to"power lunch" wherever you go, whenever you go, your car, your home, your basement. whatever you're doing, the podcast is there we'll be right back.
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welcome back to "power lunch. the dow now up about 260 points, little more than two-thirds hear 1% we had a change at the leader board. eddie george, the football star, steady eddie, has taken the lead thanks to his pick of nvidia ose pearlman falling into second place as carvana fell 9% this week draftkings had a bad week, down 14% on a possible tax hike in illinois and that sent brianna stewart and karen finerman's team, the money machines, sliding down the leader board speaking of which, shares of boston beer have resumed trading after a brief halt for volatility ads the "wall street journal" is reporting that jim beam parent suntory is in talks to buy the brewery almost 30% of reports saying talks are in the early stages.
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there's no promise of a deal we'll bring you more as we have it keep an eye, boston beer trading at 330 with the pop. almost a $1,300 stock in 2021. it has been hurt hard by the move away from its typical beers the laugh couple of years. >> up $75 a share today. >> yes indeed >> big move there. couple of other big stories, a rare move from a hedge fund. pershing square eyeing an ipo with a deal expected ackman valuing it around $10.5 billion. >> reminds me of when kkr went public and a variety of the other private equity firms did this it was a game changer. >> i was trying to think -- fortress was -- not great, a top at the 2,000 peak. have there been a lot of hedge funds that have gone public? any with a great track record? i would like to read the article on that. costco shares lower despite
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beet beating expectations for the third quarter. the new ceo pointing out areas of strength at stores including high-ticket items like $1,200 swingsets, gold and silver bullion, wagu beef, and expensive artificial trees i've always liked the beef at costco i didn't know they now have wagu >> they do i think there's a lot of homeowners my age and so -- the convenience, give me the tree, the swing set. put it in. want to mention, as well, that elon musk is planning a live town hall on his x platform which would potentially involve former president trump the move would be in partnership with news nation and comes right after the former president's conviction now we know he's tried other high-profile events on the platform that had streaming difficulties and so forth. i can't remember who -- who was it with? anyway - >> i can't remember either this would obviously be one that would -- >> yes, it was ron desantis' presidential announcement.
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tried on twitter that was a flop, technically speaking whether this goes better -- the substance itself is one issue. whether they can pull it off is another. >> all right we're going to say good-bye for the weekend. have a great weekend the dow is higher now. the mary, -- the merry, merry month of a ending on a positive note for may welcome to "closing bell." i'm live from post nine here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with questions about there rally. is there enough to keep stocks climbing in june, or is this market already too stretched for comfort? we'll ask our experts over this final stretch including goldman's tony pasquiariello he will be here at post nine in a little bit in the meantime, your store card with 60 minutes to go in regulation the week looks like this -- the fed's favorite inflation read came in as expected. the market, though, unable to get much of a pce pop. the dow's up .29.

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