energy fuels, a leading american uranium producer, is ramping up production to supply expanding nuclear markets and diversifying into rare earth elements, key ingredients in many clean energy and defense technologies. energy fuels. alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathisen. the markets are split. dow starting june with a decline of 300 points. the nasdaq with a little, little, and i do mean little gain, getting a boost from nvidia up more than 3% after announcing a new generation of

a.i. chips and also getting a price target hike to $1500 from bank of america. also meme mania is back today. gamestop soaring after the trader known as roaring kiting posted a screen shot appearing to show he owns the stock. more coming up off the highs of 35%. we also want to update you on a stock we discussed on friday's show, boston beer giving back friday's gain after suntori denied reports it's in talks to buy it. shares are down 4.5%. let's start with the question of market leadership as nvidia is driving the nasdaq higher but dow and s&p are negative. mike santoli, if they just put it in the dow, it might solve all our problems? >> it might solve the dow's problems retro actively. it's remarkable the degree to which nvidia explains a lot, not all but a lot of the divergences we're seeing this year.

under the surface it has been an uneven performance. the s&p 500 is really not far from its record high. within a percent or two. the equal weighted version never got as high and is now down more. you are seeing things like the midcap index decline as well. sometimes when you get this sort of arrythmia in the markets, not everything moving in one direction, it can mean the market is sniffing out some kind of macro problem. it's obviously worried about slower growth or higher inflation. it's not clear to me that's the case. recently when yields have gone higher, breadth has worsened. today you have a day where breadth is not great and yields are down. i think that is because we've decided to worry about the possibility of a little more of a slowdown. in bull markets some of this repairs itself. the way the market currently plays defense is to buy the big, expensive crowded growth stocks that we're confident on the story of and sell the other stuff. i guess until further notice, this is the churning market we have. it's been this way for a couple of months now. >> indeed. >> so, what do you think the

trajectory -- we'll talk in a minute with hugh johnson who will lay out his case for why a hard landing and maybe rougher days for the market are ahead. what do you see that might lead you to that kind of thesis? >> well, i see the market being very sensitive to signs that a helpful deceleration in consumer spending and, perhaps, manufacturing can easily tip over into a stall or worse. and i think that's what you're seeing right now. you remember about six months ago when everyone was getting excited about the possibility of a soft landing and people would come out and say, hey, it always looks like a soft landing until it goes too far and then it's too late for the fed to adjust. i think that's in the market's mind. i don't think there's a lot of clear and present danger of it going in that direction very quickly. but it just shows me there's not that big a macro cushion right now. disinflation has to continue, observably, and, you know, you probably want to stay around 2% real growth and that's where the

current quarter is in question on that. >> you're kind of in agreement with what we'll hear from hugh johnson, so let's bring in hugh, chairman and chief economist with hugh johnson economics. good to see you. your language on the case for a harder or hard landing is extremely surgical, very carefully worded. the case for a bear market or hard landing remains strong and cannot be easily dismissed. the case for a bear market and hard landing cannot be ignored. these are careful phrasings. is this, though, your base case, that there is likely to be a hard landing or just that we can't ignore the possibility? >> well, yeah, i think, tyler, it's the possibility. i think what i'm calling it is -- it's a very close call. in other words, i think the case for a hard landing or a recession certainly has to be not dismissed, taken seriously. i think the odds still favor, although i'm saying this with my

fingers crossed, is that we're going to have a soft landing or the economy will continue to expand but at a slow pace. keep in mind, it is now currently slow. we had 1.3% growth rate in the first quarter. that's not particularly impressive. and as we start the second quarter, when i look at the month of april, i can calculate what i think is real gross domestic product for the month of april and we're talking about 0.9%. the economy is slowing. consumer spending is slowing. you have to take seriously the possibility of a hard landing, although, believe me, it's a very close call. i would like to cross my fingers and hope for that soft landing. >> maybe it's like the senate's majority right now. maybe it's just a little tipping one way or another. let me follow up with one question. the old cliche is history doesn't repeat but it sure can rhyme. if you look back at the history of bull markets, you point out that this bull market we're in right now is roughly of the duration and magnitude of most

bull markets. which would suggest that we may be in the eighth or ninth inning of it. >> yes, exactly. if you take the duration as well as the magnitude of this bull market starting in march of 2020, which is -- everybody dates it differently, but i think that's when you should date it, you take the dur indication of this one, 51 months, the average is 47 months, since 1890, and the magnitude of this one is currently roughly the same as the magnitude of all the bull markets, the average magnitude since 1890, which was 143%. that's where we are now. which simply says, take seriously the possibility that this one could end. we could have a bear market. it could be accompanied by a recession. when you look, as mike has suggested at the performance of the markets, particularly utilities which performed great, very strong performance in the current quarter, the message

there is, you've got really take it seriously or there's the possibility we could have that so-called bear market and recession. again, fingers crossed. hopefully it's a soft landing. >> are you happy to stay in potentially less lucrative parts of the market until we know that answer? some people were anticipating a bear market for the last year or two. >> i've been among those that expected it to come. especially when you look at things like leading economic indicators which have been down 25 of 26 months. that's not good news. when you take a look at, of course, the yield curve, which we've been talking about continuously for about a year, year and a half now, those are signs that you might be headed for trouble in the economy. i think, yeah, i got to take it seriously. so, to some extent, and i don't like to be buying things like utilities and staples and safe sectors of the market, but quite frankly, given the performance of the market, given the case for a hard landing, you have to have some of that in your portfolio, along with, quite

frankly, communication services, which has been performing well. of course, technology is performing spectacularly well. believe me, when you see utilities and staples perform like that, get some defense in your portfolio just in case. >> mike santoli, i don't want to nerd out here, but since hugh mentioned the yield curve, it's been negative for a very long time. and as a predictor of the markets or of an economic downturn, it has been pretty good. but even if we go into a downturn or slight downturn, it's taken a long time for that yield curve to be vindicated. >> without a doubt. there maybe has been another example where it's been similarly as long before we got a recession. you had an incredibly transparent and aggressive fed that told the short end of the yield curve, just get higher. we're just going there. therefore, it inverted probably sooner than it would.

we had unemployment go down through an entire tightening cycle. there's a lot about this cycle that hasn't matched up. hugh was mentioning the length of the bull market. others would date it to october of 2022 since we did have a 25% drop. we had two bear markets within two years, basically. when has that happened before? >> 2022 was a not good year at all. but that's a very interesting point about the transparency of the fed and that by virtue of being so clear about what they were going to do, maybe we got to that point of inversion of the yield curve quicker. that's for economists to debate, not the likes of me. hugh johnson, mike santoli, thanks very much. appreciate it. >> my pleasure. turning now to a bright spot amid the selloff, the meme trade. shares of gamestop are soaring more than 30% after roaring kitty, as the trader is known, posted on his account a $160 million position in the company. is the gamestop rally really here to stay? what would it mean for the meme market and the market overall,

let's ask michael noss. as this becomes more and more common, people are starting to wonder whether we should institutionalize as a trading strategy being long heavy shorted names. they said it's too hard to market time and to know exactly when these stocks will pop. what are your thoughts? >> yeah, if we're looking at heavily shorted names as a broad bunch, generally speaking they're heavily shorted for a reason. that's why i think even the phrase meme stock, i think, needs to start to be broken up a little bit here. where we have stocks like amc down 99% from their meme stock craze and bed bath & beyond that's gone completely, and gamestop that has been holding in a lot better than the other ones throughout. it's one of those things, if you look at everything short very heavily, the ones that continue to move down, and the short sellers are right, they don't

need that reason to cover. when you look at things like gamestop that were short heavily and then all of a sudden you get spikes out of nowhere, that's where the shorts need to cover. if you're looking at high short float names, it really makes sense to look at the underlying trend of the stock and see, are the shorts winning or are they starting to get nervous? >> that's an interesting way to look at it. do you have any names that come to mind or important to maybe message this a little different to retail traders who maybe you can tell me, keep getting burned by this and maybe they don't. maybe they're profiting nicely. >> i think there's two different camps when it comes to the meme stock traders. there are the people who are looking for that quick hit, in and out, and those people i think are having a really good time. the ones that simply look at a heavily shorted name and say, i'm going to buy this one, i think those have a little harder time. that's why, you know, you look at just, say, a basket of amc, bed bath & beyond and gamestop,

two of three of those are zero or near zero. then we have the other one holding strong. if you are going to diversify, i like names that are still profitable and still have sectors. i mentioned nordstrom the last time gamestop did this little pop. that's a heavily shorted name that's doing well. some of the marijuana stocks have popped up recently, they're also heavily shorted. some of those may be turn-around stories. just like anything, if you're going to look at a name that's heavily shorted or a quote, unquote, meme stock, it makes sense to look under the hood at the financial data and technical data. >> i'm trying to wrap my head around marijuana and investing in the same breath be that as it may. playing the meme stocks, is it really a sensible way to try to make money? >> well, i wouldn't suggest everyone take all of their 401(k) money they have and put that in it as well.

the last time we had this meme stock rally, a lot of people weren't doing that. of course, there will be some. some are using this as a bit of a market engagement tool. they're taking money from a robinhood or something like that and playing some meme stocks while still depositing their monthly paycheck into investing accounts. so, if you agree with some of the turn-around stories that people are talking about with gamestop, then maybe it's a place to take a shot. just like i mentioned last time, i think you just need an exit plan. i think you can trade anything, technically or fundamentally as long as you have a plan for when to get in and a plan when to get out if you're wrong or more importantly, when to get out if you're right. >> i just like what you said there. it suggests to me there is a sensible way, potentially, to do this with, let's call it, discretionary investment cash as long as you have that exit strategy in place and so as long as you are not playing with the

real core of your portfolio you're going to some day have to depend on. >>. >> yeah. again, there can be both baskets here. we remember that the meme stocks got really hot during covid when there was a lot of stimulus money and sports were shut down and people were looking for things to do and it became this worldwide phenomenon. a lot of people were worried that this is just people gambling on stocks and they're not going to do the sensible investing on top of that. but what we found out is this actually brings people into the market and it brings some excitement and interest and research into the market. as long as you're doing it sensibly, i think it's a good thing for markets and i think it's a good thing for investors overall. >> some people are calling into question whether this is even the real roaring kitty. >> could it be psychok kitty?

>> that's what i was hinting at with the first question. it feels like once this is out there for so long, there's going to be big players who are going to come in and try to game the system or work the system to their own benefit. and i wonder -- i just wonder about that. >> well, there are some things that we could say that are unusual with this. first of all, a lot of the rally started before roaring kitty came back. i brought a long-term chart of gamestop going back to 2007. this $10 area was resistant in 2007. again, 2010. and became supporting. we actually bounced off that pretty hard even before roaring kitty came back. it looks like there is some sort of buying under the hood. the other question i kind of had when i was looking at the tweets and the reddit posts last night is his last summary of what occurred and his yolo update, as he called it, he had about 30 million in his account.

now he has roughly 130 million. so, it makes you wonder, is there some sort of outside investing going on? did he make great trades elsewhere he's now putting into gamestop? there are a few thins that are a bit unusual. i don't blame if he is just trying to be aloof and a little bit relose right now. i really don't blame him. i imagine everyone in the world is trying to talk to the guy. and you have to be a little bit worried about, up, are regulators going to have a problem with what he's doing and that type of thing. it doesn't surprise me. really, when it comes to gamestop, nothing surprises me anymore. >> aloof kitty. thank you. always good to hear from you. >> talk to you soon. coming up, spotify raising prices at a time when consumers remain sensitive to price hikes, but the ceo says this is the year of monetization and feels audio has different rules from video platforms. that's in "techcheck" when we return.

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spotify is raising its prices for the second time in a year, hiking an individual premium plan by $1 to $11.99 a month. shares jumping on that news but not all streamflation is equal. deirdre bosa has that story in today's "techcheck." >> exactly. not all is equal. while the trend of pricing has been up and to the right for the most part, spotify occupies a unique space and that is very stickier, that is audio. data shows less than 1.5% of spotify users canceled subscriptions in the month of april. video streamers, though, they are more fickle. data showing 35% of users who cancel, they actually return within one year. the number of serial churners has more than tripled since 2019. spotify is also focused on audio

where its main competitors are mega caps with giant other, more profitable businesses, of which audio complements. take amazon at the center of that flywheel is e-commerce. prime subscriptions are meant to get users to buy more stuff. over the years, they've beefed that up with faster delivery, grocery, pharmacy, video and audio streaming is another perk. apple music, likewise, that is meant to keep users inside the iphone ecosystem. audio isn't the entire ecosystem itself like it is for spotify. to that point, antenna looks at the survival rate of users. more than 50% of spotify users are still subscribed 12 months later versus 34% for apple and amazon each. spotify also has more share of the audio streaming market than either of those names. so, now it is betting that users will be willing to pay more also. with this hike price, guys, this was interesting, a premium

spotify subscription now costs more than apple music plans. so, taking a little bit of a gamble. it has so much of the market, it knows it's hard to switch. you can pretty much get all music, you don't have to choose with an audio streaming site. they're taking a gamble. people could switch to apple music for cheaper but they wouldn't be able to get their playlist to go with them. >> and youtube is a player in the music world as well. >> of course. >> i was following you with the idea that audio is a sticker -- a stickier product than video is. but then you said plus 50% of spotify's folks stay for 12 months versus 34% for apple and amazon. why would their products have a lower retention rate, i wonder? >> apple and amazon? >> yes. >> well, i think spotify -- maybe some analysts would argue, because they don't have that focus on music -- or audio. it's not everything they do.

whereas with that price hike today from spotify, they said to their users, this will let us reinvest in more products you love. whereas if amazon is making money off of its audio, it might put it somewhere else, like advertising or e-commerce or one of its other many, many businesses. so it has a lot of other things to focus on. maybe amounting to not as great a product and the idea of best of breed. a company that focuses on one thing instead of everything. the question is, do people want to pay for it? >> thank you. deirdre bosa on spotify. as weather patterns continue to change and intensify, many startups are entering the weather prediction space and now a.i. is getting involved. we have all the details in today's "clean start" right after this. oh, charades! - okay! - love it! umm... first word. - tonsillitis! - nostril!

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positive. bond yields are falling. let's get that side of the story from rick santelli. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler. indeed, bond yields hovering at some lowest yields. highest price of the session. it all began this morning around 10:00 eastern. ism prices paid dropped nearly two-year high, as you see on this chart. and what should ring true is that it was a small concession with a big market move. just like friday, whether it's personal consumption expenditures. when any of the inflation data comes in near as expected without any surprises or makes subtle progress, the markets get quite euphoric. we need to pay close attention here if it gets legged. if you look at two-year and dollar index, you can see clearly at 10:00 eastern when that was released, the dollar index gave up some ground, two-year note reversed from thursday's two-month -- excuse me, one-month high to now about a three-week low. the dollar index pays for the

lowest close in two months sensing at least gravitating to the notion that the worst part of inflation and the rise in prices paid in the rearview mirror. something else happened today. if you look at atlanta gdp now, i'm not saying it has a high accuracy rate, but many pay close attention to it. today its current read is the second lowest read of 2024. kelly, tyler, back to you. >> wow, second lowest reading. that explains the market action, thank you. how is oil fitting into this picture? let's asa stevens. we're down 4% but also opec agreement to extend productions cuts. what's the freedom naturing forces? >> it's about opec today. there are currently three different sets of production cuts in place and all three of those were extended. but what's key, and the reason why oil is down almost 4%, is that there's now a path to bring all of that oil back to the market. we're talking about 6 million barrels a day they've been cutting. that's 6% of global demand on a

daily basis. it a material amount. the key thing is there was that 2.2 million barrel per day voluntary cut at the beginning of the year. that the market thought would be extended through the end of this year. instead they only extended it through q3. meaning come october they'll start unwinding that output. demand has been pretty weak. we haven't been seeing inventory draws so the market is taking this as more weakness ahead. if you have supply coming back online, that's why we're seeing this dip in oil. >> when did they make that decision to bring oil back online? this weekend? >> yeah, that was yesterday. >> i wasn't paying attention this weekend. >> how could you not be glued to your screen? it's riveting. those will start coming back in october. the group did bend over backwards to say they can always ad adjust. >> pippa, thank you. >> we appreciate it. >> no further questions, your honor? >> if the data goes that way, we have a double whammy.

pippa, thanks. we'll go to -- >> now let's go to seema mody. a news update. the state department says hamas has not responded yet to a new cease-fire deal. according to u.s. officials, a proposal was submitted thursday that would unfold in three phases, ending in a withdrawal of israeli troops from gaza. the state department says it is completely confident israel will agree to the framework despite prime minister benjamin netanyahu describing it as flawed and in need of more work. california's largest wildfire of the year is 75% contained today after scorching 14,000 achers over the weekend. local officials say the flames destroyed one home and hurt two firefighters after leading to the evacuation of thousands of people east of the san francisco bay. the cause of the fire still under investigation. and dallas cowboys legend larry allen died suddenly on sunday. according to a statement from the team. the hall of famer lineman was on

a family vacation in mexico. he spent 12 of 14 seasons in dallas before retiring in 2009. larry allen was just 52 years old. tyler? >> some people think he is the best offensive lineman in nfl history, among them certainly. seema, thank you. coming up, a major cancer research korns under way. hearing from ceos and the latest industry news. we'll trade at least one of the key names in today's "three stock lunch."

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welcome back to "power lunch." the world's largest cancer conference is taking place in chicago. our angelica is there talking to some of the biggest names in the pharma industry. what are you hearing, angelica? >> one of the biggest trends in cancer research is this move away from traditional chemotherapy and towards more precise drugs. now, one of the approaches that we're talking a lot about is targeted chemotherapy. what you'll hear called in the industry as adcs. these are drugs that are already

on pace to become a $30 billion category by 2030 and the competition is only getting hotter with names like pfizer and merck making big bets here. japanese company daiichi was a pioneer. they presented new results this weekend that could allow 70% with metastatic breast cancer to receive their drug in her ii. >> i think right now, we're just scratching the surface of what the future is going to look like. in the future, i think adcs will displace chemotherapy in most every setting. >> that's obviously an ambitious goal, but we are seeing a ton of investment here. guys? >> thank you very much, an angelica, we appreciate it. her reporting will continue from the conference in chicago. time for today's "three

stock lunch." with our trades today is gina sanchez, chief market strategist at lido and cnbc contributor. first up is johnson & johnson. shares are up fractionally on news out of that asco conference. they suggest j&j's goal is to become the oncology leader. what's your trade here? >> so, we own j&j. this is one we are actually still very positive on. the big overhang for j&j continues to be telcom, the lawsuits that involve talcum and asbestos. what we see is the prices have largely priced this in, in our view. there's a tremendous amount of potential growth. and, you know, never mind that you're getting continued dividend growth out of this stock. they handily beat expectations and so j&j is doing what it set out to do. it is establishing itself in

other growth areas like its acquisition of shock wave, which happened. that is a huge market in terms of being able to go in and take out arterial plaques to avoid cardiac sddisease. they have another expansion into atopic dermatitis through their acquisition of jersey therapeutics. that is very positive. we think the pipeline is very r robust and risk is priced in. >> let's move on to costco, another all-time high after a number of bullish analyst notes. loop capital, pricing target to $890. you agree with costco, just stick with it? >> we do. we own this one as well. this has been a fantastic holding for our portfolios.

it has gone really, really strong. and i think an interesting canary in the coal mine is they opted not to increase subscriptions prices because of concerns about a pullback in consumption going into the latter half of the year. what's interesting about that, i think that's very, very bad for the entire industry in general because costco is one of those names that benefits when people look to save money. so i do think even if they might be seen as a tad overvalued, i think they can defend if the market goes into a prolonged downturn. if it's a mild downturn, it's still great for costco. all in all, good news or bad news, this is a stock that can play both sides of that. >> let's go to spotify. shares jumping around 4% as we discussed earlier, the streaming company says it's going to raise prices of its premium subscription plans following a similar price hike last july. how about spotify at $309?

>> so, this is an interesting one. i think the market is very enthusiastic about their goal of becoming profitable so they're showing profitability. the question is, can they sustain that profitability? the bigger challenge i have is the business model itself is very challenging. spotify is competing against other, much larger entities for whom music sales is only a component of a much more diverse portfolio like apple and amazon. their growth is somewhat limited. it's capped at what they're competing against. meanwhile, the cost to actually pay out royalties seems to be on a moveable floor. i think it is basically making money between the wallpaper and the wall. this is not one we're that enthusiastic about. it's a sell, in my opinion, even though they're doing well and getting towards profitability. it's a question of whether or not they can maintain it. >> thanks very much. gina sanchez for us today. climate change continues to disrupt weather patterns around the globe.

we'll explore the growing business of forecasting technology to help combat extreme weather and be ready for it. "power lunch" is back in two. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ before you use ai to transform business,

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welcome back. summer is here and it's expected to be one of the busiest hurricane seasons in history. thanks to climate change, the intensity of these storms is increasing. that's why weather prediction is still more important than ever before and it's still hard to do. diana olick. they think they have a better mouse trap? >> they do. the weather forecasting space is becoming increasingly crowded. much of that thanks to a.i. investors are seeing big opportunity, especially in

startups. as hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires and drought become more frequent and more intense, weather forecasting becomes that much more critical. entrants to the field like tomorrow.io, google deepmind are using new technologies to both disrupt and detect. >> we operate the most comprehensive balloon constellation and weather based modeling. >> the balloons can fly for weeks as opposed to today's government launched weather balloons which stay aloft for just a few hoursand cannot reach remote locations. >> this means we can collect roughly 40 to 50 times more data per balloon. we can also collect this data under oceans and over areas. >> they use satellite communication to deliver their data in real-time. the world currently lacks weather data for 85% of the atmosphere. the goal is to close this gap

with its technology, using fewer balloons to offer global coverage. demand for this data from government and big business has the funding flowing. windborne just closed a $15 million round with lead investor khosla ventures. >> it's about $100 billion market now. it touches pretty much every industry. it hasn't really been meaningfully disrupted since the weather company in the 1990s. that makes it a very attractive market for us. >> in addition to khosla, windborne is backed by footwork vc, pear vc, convective, you bikty, total funding, $25 million. the world economic forum named extreme weather and weather uncertainty as the biggest risk to businesses over the next decade. windborne says its technology can make a two-week forecast as accurate as today's two-day forecast. >> that would be so exciting. that feels like the final

frontier, if we can actually crack weather forecasting. talk to us about the balloons, diana. how do they direct them or guide them? do they get them back? >> big shock, they use a smartphone to do it. they have this special flight software that helps them to steer around certain areas. they can tell the balloons even to move around geographical locations like israel or ukraine and they can have it drop sand in order to go higher or drop air in order to go lower and set them into a certain wind stream where it surfs the air and they can direct it around where they need to go. the balloons when they are done, they are fall back to earth and they are waste. they say there are so many fewer than the traditional government balloons. they may have waste products from dozens or a couple hundred balloons, the government wastes thousands of them. kelly? >> thank you very much, diana olick reporting. coming up, the winners of the national economic challenge, the econ version of the national

spelling bee, we'll meet the newly crowned champs when we return. you can always hear us on your podcast. be sure to follow and listen to "power lunch" wherever you go. we'll be right back. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly.

let's get back to the national economics challenge. earlier on "the exchange" we dipped into the questions. now we have a winner. let's bring in steve liesman. hi, steve. steve liesman. hi, steve. >> reporter: tyler, thanks very much. yes, we have a winner not only in the top division but in the second division. we have mount hebron from elle cot, maryland, this is their ninth win over all over the years here. let me introduce the winners to you. >> hi, my name is mahin. milton freedman is my favorite economist. >> hi, my name is diego murphy. my favorite economist is daniel conman. >> nice. not economist, behavioral psychologist. that's okay. cool. >> hello. my favorite economist is hyak. >> that's a good one.

>> hi, my favorite economist is dave rikardo. >> this is your ninth win with mount hebron. what would you say is in the water? >> i think it's a lot with our teacher. he really supports us and is also very educated on this topic and really helps us to learn and become better. >> what's in the water in maryland? >> i mean, i got to say, hike, our school has been doing it for a while. and you know, our success only really started around 2016. and that's because the generational amount of input and work that we've been putting into the program. >> one thing i heard is that the older students teach the younger students. that's right. okay. let's move on. nvidia, buy or sell? >> i'm going to say short. >> why? >> i'm just saying. actually, you know what, i'll say buy. >> fed going to cut this year? >> sorry? >> is the fed going to cut this year? >> why? >> because it needs to.

>> why does it need to? >> because unemployment is going to start increasing. >> how come? >> i'm just envisioning that as the future. >> is the fed restrictive right now, would you say? >> i would say it's pretty restrictive. being very careful about its decisions. i want my shares to go up, so the fed should do real cuts. >> are you learning about the aggregate good at mount hebron or own personal self interest? >> personal self interest. >> what's the neutral rate? >> right now i think have to cut a bit more to get a better neutral rate. but i see that coming in the near future. >> where would you put the neutral rate? >> i would say at least i could give you an estimate but lowered significantly. as we know, mount hebron is developing us and developing our human kpal. i want my shares to go up. so, by the time i graduate

collegeky be a millionaire. >> ai, you worried about it? >> not at all. >> why not? >> because human capital, technologicaladvance will see economic growth. >> why hyak? >> you know, he was like an underdog when -- in the world of economists. canes overpassed him, he didn't get the nobel prize until later. i love the story of an underdog winning. that's why, yeah. >> tell us why -- give us one thing from ricardo that our viewers can take away that maybe they don't know. >> specifically he introduced comparative advantage. >> right. >> and that revolutionized the international trade, allowed for more specialization and increased variety of goods we have and overall to the net benefit. >> one more question. 10-year at the end of the year, what's the 10-year bond going to be. it's about 4.5, right now, 4.48. what do you think it's going to be? >> i would say 3.5. >> 34.5 down a percentage point? why? >> because i've been trained and

what mount hebron says goes. >> okay. tyler, i'm going to send it back to you. i think we're shorting nvidia, you got to go long the 10-year i think. were you taking notes, tyler? >> i was taking notes because that was a great interview. that was really, really good. >> nobody skipped a beat. >> and concise. i want them to come on on fed day. >> yes. >> all four of them to to come on on fed day and be our panel. that's the win. >> and they want a cut because they want their portfolios to go up. >> they want their shares to go higher so they can be a millionaire by the time they leave college. i love it. >> steve -- >> we have to go, tyler. thanks. >> what was the answer to the question number three, do you remember? >> oh, question number three, it was 95%. >> oh, what the participation rate was. >> i know i got it wrong. that's why paul is the producer and i just read what's on the

screen. >> thanks a lot, guys. national economic challenge. >> thank you for bringing that to us. >> thank you, steve. >> my parents may have eloped to ellicott city. >> well, tyler, coming up, sailor's massive settlement. agreeing to a multimillion dollar deal to end a lawsuit accusing him of tax evasion. we will get key details after this. investment professionals know the importance of keeping their clients on track. sometimes they need help cutting through the noise, to ensure fresh investment ideas keep flowing, and to analyze the market from every angle. at allspring, we deliver the unexpected, by relentlessly exploring where others don't. allspring, follow the insight.

welcome back. michael saylor and long-time bitcoin bull settling a tax fraud case. kate rooney here with all the details. >> yes, this was a tax fraud case in washington, d.c. michael saylor and the company he founded agreed to pay $40 million fine in what amounted to largest income tax recovery settlement in the district's history. the suit was filed by the office of the attorney general and alleged that saylor illegally

evaded ta million over the course of 15 years. saylor claimed to be living in virginia and florida, which notably has no state individual income tax. he was living in a d.c. penthouse full time over looking the potomac river docking multiple yachts and saylor openly bragged about his tax evasion scheme. required for employing d.c. residents. company got the start in software but become a proxy for bitcoin. he denies those allegations, though, saying, quote, florida remains my home today. and i continue to dispute the allegation that i was ever a resident of the district of columbia. i have agreed to settle this matter to avoid the continued burdens of litigation on my

friends, family and myself. kelly and tyler, back over to you. >> but no direct impact to micro strategy that we could see otherwise? >> yeah. it is sort of still trading like a bitcoin proxy. it's interesting nothing really about bitcoin mentioned here. just sort of good old fashioned tax fraud issue and, yeah. it seems to be resilient here not taking much hit. >> bitcoin pops up in that context. kate, thanks. kate rooney. that's it for "power lunch." thank you, everyone. "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins swoon to begin june and whether it means anything for where stocks might trade as this new month begins. we'll ask our experts over the final stretch and be joined by former dallas fed president robert cap lan. now the vice chairman at goldman sachs. look forward to that. let's show you the score card with 60 minutes to go in