>> dom, thanks. a quick final check on the markets. the dow down less than 100. the nasdaq was down triple digits at the beginning at about 6:00 a.m. in the premarket. now we've got -- we've seen across the board the averages pairing their losses. friday a big jobs number. tomorrow is only winds. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ just here for your looks. good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. carl is on assignment at the cnbc council summit, summit council, council summit in d.c. i'm not sure we have our boards right now so we're not going to be able to look at futures.

we'll get them in a second. let's get to our roadmap. it starts with the ai arms race, nvidia remaining the best performance on the s&p. apple turns positive and morgan stanley is calling the worldwide developers conference apple is having less than a week from now a key catalyst. plus there are signs of ev demand recovering perhaps. tesla sees its china sales gain. the shares still down 29%. it's not the king in that market. byd is. speaking of what we're keeping an eye on, how about the memes? e-trade reportedly is considering kicking rory kid december off the platform. his name is keith gill. he's made a lot of money. where do we want to start? let's start with this news involving elon musk and ai, in

particular nvidia chips. memos circulated inside nvidia and obtained by cnbc shows that elon musk was telling the chip maker to prioritize shipments of processors to x, the old twitter, and xai ahead of tesla. this is a story that's just gone up on cnbc.com, by ordering nvidia to jump ahead tesla, musk pushed back the automaker's receipt of more than $500 million graphics, gpus that are so vital. that may push the delivery back for tesla by months. interesting story here, jim. and raises those questions that are also central in the story. i invite people to go to the website and read it, about musk.

he's the ceo of tesla but controls completely privately held x and xai. if you say -- if you sort of deny a benefit for one company and confer it on your private company, is the board signed off on that? i don't know. all of this coming, of course, as there's a vote coming as well on his compensation package that was originally granted to him in 2018 but is being revoted on. >> subtle threat. we lose this -- lose it, then i'm going to take my bat and ball. this weekend was a very seminal weekend for elon musk because jensen huang said nvidia is by far and away -- i'm sorry -- tesla is by far and away the biggest autonomous because of nvidia, and i don't know if that would be the case if nvidia gave the chips to musk and he gave them to the other company. >> one of the key paragraphs in

the story -- again, laura kol had any is the reporter, email written by nvidia senior staff and widely shared in the company suggests musk presented an exaggerated picture of tesla's procurement to shareholders. musk diverted a sizable shipment of ai processors that have been research 6d for tesla to his social media company x. it's funny because robin, the chairman of tesla, is making the rounds with their institutional investors as they begin the process truly of designing how they want to vote on the compensation package, a package passed by some 73% of the same shareholders back in 2018 that obviously awards mr. musk a 44-plus billion worth of stock based on the options granted at that time. >> he hit the lottery. >> that said, it was agreed to, and it was only because he was

going to reach what seemed to be incredibly outsized goals that he did reach. i wonder if a story like this, this has been a concern in the past, that given so many things, even in terms of resources as well, whether it's computer sciences, whether it's other people who are repurposed from one company to another musk company even though, of course, tesla, while he runs it and controls 20% of the stock, it's not a musk company. >> no. you have a board that might say, look, this is a commitment that was already made to us. you can't funnel the commitment away from us. obviously when you get as many chips from nvidia, you have an edge. if you take away the chips, maybe it's not as much of an edge. >> or it slows your progression of obviously something that's incredibly important to the future of the company which is full self-driving. >> who ordered the chips? >> i don't know.

it's not my story. it's ours as a news organization. we've got nvidia declining to comment. musk and representatives for x and tesla apparently according to the story not responding to requests for comment. now, as for, jim, the decline in sales, or i should say the reviews on the china sales, they've lost the lead in the market to byd. but that said, the numbers themselves, i'd love to get your take. they sold 72,573 china-made cars in may. >> offering zero or zero down payment. >> yeah. >> the numbers aren't that bad. there are other places where they're not doing as well. someone called me last night on the show. would you count musk out? let's say musk wins and musk then pivots. at a certain point they are creating autonomous machines,

not vehicles. by the way, nvidia is sensitive to that. they never called it vehicles. it's always autonomous machines. if you get the latest and greatest nvidia chips which he's in line to, then maybe they can come up with things we haven't seen before, which is one of the reasons why i don't want to count him out. you count him out and he has something up his sleeve and he wins the vote, gees, he can offer the same technology to the ai. he doesn't have to just keep it to himself. >> listen, there's plenty of sharing between x the platform, as well xai which they just raised $6 billion. they're using the data from twitter in part to power the large language models they'll put in place. talked about their own orders of nvidia chips and their plan to

build a huge data center from tennessee as well, in terms of what was communicated to people on a call about xai when they were in their fund-raising mode. >> i'm just trying to figure out whether, if you have a publicly-traded company and you're powerful and you can ship these over, whether there isn't some sort of -- >> if tesla is a public company if, in fact, they diverted things to a private company, that's not appropriate. unless, of course, they got signoff from the board or there's something misunderstood in terms of, there was not a need and they had this order and the other companies came in and said we'll take it because you don't need it. we'll see if there's a response. >> we know that one of the things that jensen huang has been saying over and over again, he doesn't want to stockpile it. it's very clear that he is really in favor of musk after a

period where relations were strained, where he believes that musk is doing more than anybody else to become one of the largest methods -- uses of nvidia. remember, he's got health care he wants and auto are what jensen is keying on. the guy who is working on this is musk. i would not vote against musk here. i'd vote in favor. i also think they have the possibility at this price to do something. it's $550 billion which is the one sticking point. big market cap. >> big market cap. >> versus ford. maybe we can get numbers that would move something. >> we'll hear from phil on those numbers. citi keeps buy rating 1260 price target, td cowen, mizuho, on and on. what are your thoughts this

morning given nvidia pretty much every morning seems to be the key to this market. >> bank of america. i remain very san wid about nvidia. the pr people are really good. it'she two-hour speech from computex. he lays out a version that says intel, nowhere, can't do it without his chips, how powerful his chips are, the roadmap for his chips. you come away and just say i'm a believer. there's just nobody has got the power. no one has the kind of compute power that he has. >> i'll tell you one person that is not a believer is pat gelsinger, the ceo of intel. here is a quote from him -- actually, we have it. let's take a listen to pat gelsinger. he took a direct shot at jensen

huang's claim. >> jensen comes in peace. >> intels are running out of team in the age of artificial intelligence. take a listen. >> as we look now to have a billion transistors on a single chip, looking at a trillion in a single package by the end of the decade. unlike what jensen may have you believe, moore's law is alive and well. >> it's alive but it's not well. this is the chart about ai compute and how you can't -- the incremental addition of transistors to intel is not giving you the power -- you can't see the bottom line. >> that's blackwell up there at the top. i don't even know where rubin is going to come in. >> rubin is insane. >> whose chart is this, by the way? >> this is the nvidia chip showing intel's moore's law.

there's a line. i have to get up. >> you're getting up. you can't write on this. >> you can't? >> i can't show that doesn't matter? doesn't tv do that? >> put it up in the thing where we can -- >> it's probably in the old strategy that i've adopted. how about this? can i show it on here. >> there you go. now you're at it. >> that's it. that's moore's law, the power of moore's law. this is what happens if you add more tran sis tors. >> you can draw if you want. >> okay. >> so this is really good. it shows me i'm about as good as pat mcafee in the morning. >> you have -- that's moore's law according to what happens, as you add transistors, that's the increment of power you get. here is the increment of power you get if you do what jensen wants. you tell me that's alive and

well? i think reports of the death of moore's law are mature. look at this. i feel people have to recognize that pat gelsinger is just by far the nicest person who has ever been to taiwan. he is nice rooney mcfadden. i am baffled on how this man can continue with what i regard as a charade. >> that's so tough. >> jensen on every call is, look, i met -- gordon was a great man. sometimes things fulfill their usefulness. like when you guys dropped wheeler -- wheels from the mets. no, no, that actually worked out. what i'm talking about is this is so night and day that i find myself thinking does pat -- is he calling jensen a liar? is he calling jensen a liar?

>> look at that. that's another chart. >> that's wind gust one year. guys, come on. one year doesn't tell the story. i want ten. >> ten years is even better. gees. >> keep piling on the pain here. >> gordon moore came up -- >> only up 24,260 percent. >> gordon moore came up with moore's law, the founder of intel. all jensen is saying, if you keep adding -- >> cost comes down. >> keep adding the cpu, it does not create the level of power that it used to. that's a perfectly legitimate thing. one time he came with a call and really went off the reservation. >> real quickly because you have many times questioned pat gelsinger. his view is, listen, he's spending an enormous amount of money to build fabs that will

produce chips, produce a lot of cash for this company. >> i hope his balance sheet supports -- >> years away and he knows that. are you not a believer in the long-term plan. >> i do not believe you can get from a cpu the power that you can get by adding gpus together. you can add blackwell -- one of the things jensen did, add a blackwell to a blackwell and the power increases. no disrespect to gordon moore who is the greatest -- maybe one of the greatest scientists of all time, also an incredibly good man. i did some charity work with him. an amazing man. the problem is that the gpu has always been faster, and andy grove knew that and he treated jensen huang with zero respect. there was a board member who wanted to adopt jensen huang's view, and the board member was treated with zero respect. >> interesting. >> zero respect by andy grove. remember that. >> i will. i will. in the next block we'll see

where jim chooses to wander off to. we'll also take a look at the meme stock frenzy. let's give you a look at futures. we're set up for a slightly wndo open. a lot more "squawk on the street" straight ahead. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer.

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mentioned this a moment ago. ford is out with the sales figures. let's get to phil lebeau. >> solid month of may for ford. total sales up 51%. evs up almost 65%. same with high blidz, up almost 65%. the focus on evs is about bringing down cost, less about driving volume. different story when it comes to hybrids. hybrids are red hot. ford has been smart to pivot toward hybrid production and sales. hybrid sales of the f-150, another great example of them realizing there's demand in a certain segment, up 51% in the month of may.

keep in mind the f-150 sales, 8.3 of those sales, total sales in the last month were for f-150 hybrids. that's one of those growth areas, guys, where ford was right to make the pivot a year ago, realizing that that's what people are interested in right now. they're not interested in the f-150 lightning to the degree ford thought they would be a few years ago. >> that's very big. one of the things i'm trying to focus on, phil, when i look at what ford is doing, the stock has fallen so far behind gm. no pressure there to maybe do a buyback the way gm has which has been a fabulous one? >> right. you're one of the people who said they should do a buyback. ultimately they may do that. the real question for investors, when it comes to the ev, that part of the business, you know

how they broke it into silos in terms of the three divisions, they've got to do something about cutting the losses in evs. i know they say they have a plan and are driving down the losses, but it's going to be a rough year. i think a lot of investors are looking at that and saying, wait a second, we're not -- we can't live with that right now. that has got to change. so i think that's what you're looking at, jim, when you're looking at ford versus general motors. >> phil, do you have that number handy about how much basically mustang cost for ford versus what they sell it at? >> not mustang, but evs in the first quarter. understadbly ford will sit there and say there's a lot of costs built into it. it was more than $100,000 per vehicle they lost in the ev division within ford. you're including a lot of sunk in costs there. >> well, i don't know, phil. i think you're absolutely right,

that's what it is. that's why there's a difference, because of the ev situation. thank you, phil, versus gm. >> you bet. phil lebeau with those ford numbers. coming up, we'll get jim's "mad dash." let's give you a look at futures one last time. more "squawk on the street" right after this. this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes

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let's take a look at oil, a notable chart there. we're not too far from the lows of the year at this point. we're down some 17% in a relatively short amount of time. >> the reality is when we go to the market, heads i win, tails you lose, partner. >> you can see it up just 2% for the full year. as you see, down another percent and a half in the early going here, a bit above 73. we've got opening bell a few minutes away. we'll squeeze in a "mad dash" from just as well. don't go anywhere.

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let's get to a "mad dash." j&j ceo joined cnbc yesterday. you were talking about at that timing. you got more on that. >> i asked a question not about ovarian and talc.

i asked about mesothelioma, part of the overall park kaj that j&j wants to pay off. i think he had a problem with his audio for that particular moment. i asked about mesothelioma. sure enough last night a jury came down in oregon and ordered j&j to pay $260 million to a woman who said she developed mesothelioma by inhaling talc. what's interesting, 60 million compensatory, $200 million punitive! >> you think it's a continued risk then, this litigation? >> i have to say it is. >> talking different. not what they have settled on. >> there's still no settlement agreement. mesothelioma would be included. again, these are not ovarian. the last one was also m

mesot mesothelioma. i will say, david, you cannot dismiss the existential nature of these big talc lawsuits because we know not to dismiss -- [ bell ringing ]. >> there's a look at the realtime exchange back at our headquarters. corteva and knew nuvalent. >> where do you want to start this morning? i'll open the board to you. >> sure. i think you've got to deal with the notion that the market is soggy every day. come in at 334, the futures are down big, almost regardless of europe. you say to yourself, okay, what's in control of this market? what's the metric that people are looking at?

i keep thinking that what people are looking at is the fed made up its mind that it's going to be higher for longer just when the data is weakening. so people feel that maybe the fed is losing control of the narrative because the pmi, for instance, when you drilled down yesterday on the pmi, it was so weak that you have to say, if you're an industrial company, be careful. >> there it is. look at that move, the yield in the ten-year. we were at 4.6 not long ago. >> that's important. when you're 4.6 going to 4.7, we were told to sell. now we're 4.3, maybe going to 4.2, we're told to sell. you can't do that. i want inflation to go down. i think everything is going to be decided by friday. when we get that employment number, if there is a dip in employment, we get unemployment above 4 -- >> you think we can go that much higher? >> no. i'm saying we have -- we're fine, but there's pronounced

weakness coming in in a bunch of sectors. by the way, a lot of people feel that dell was a sign that the data center is getting weak. that's been the most important part of our economy. i don't think it is at all. jensen is talking about $6 billion data centers. by the way, let's face it. the country, the nation states, the titans, whatever you want to call them, they need these things. they can't stop. they cannot stop. >> i wouldn't necessarily infer from that dell report there's some sort of a slowdown. >> no. i think dell had some business with musk. >> i talked about that, right. >> it's funny. you broke the paramount. everyone says faber, faber, faber, faber. i said nothing. sure enough, sure enough no one talked about the bigger story you broke which is that musk may have been the recipient of all

these dell -- of all what dell had. >> -- very important customer. >> in the same way that, if you're a drug maker and you have to use mckesson or you have to use one of these -- cardinal, what happens is that they're the middlemen. a lot of people feel they make too much money. dell was the middle man and looks like it chose to eat a lot of it. michael dell is a terrific guy. if he thinks it's a great idea to take little margin to get musk because of the back end, that's genius. but to think that dell is not making any money? come on. dell's stock is such a buy here. i want to buy it for my trust but i can't because i talk about it. that's what's going on. i think there's a false sense that everythingis falling apart. >> with rates coming down the way we have, why aren't we seeing more of a rally, or are we seeing it in the smaller companies, smaller as in not the

giant mag 7 -- >> still seeing -- yesterday we saw apple having a move -- >> apple is now in positive territory for the year. it is one of the few names among the mega caps up ever so little, 19 cents right now. >> david, there are some people who directly think when you get -- i'm uncomfortable saying what i'm about to say, this roaring kitty issue. i think it's a sideshow. people say, wait a second, maybe the market is not what i think it is. maybe it's still a play ground for manipulation and playground -- >> i don't think that. >> it doesn't help the narrative. >> it may not. buti think something else is 21 times earnings. we're at the highs in terms of overall multiple. a lot of that pushed by, again, what is back to 30-plus percent of the market which is seven companies. >> when rates come down, we should be paying more for these. they're not expensive. what's expensive is enterprise

software. enterprise software is emblematic of what happened with gitlab last night. when you lookat gitlab, you say to yourself, wait a second, this company reported a very good number, and the stock is down because it's enterprise software. that salesforce was so jarring -- there's a really good company, service now, we've had bill mcermott on. what are you laughing about? >> yes, we've had bill mcdermott on, many times. >> the stock is down 7% for the year even though it's doing incredibly well. this is the multiple contraption when it comes to enterprise software. if you came out of school a few years ago and you wanted to be rich, you went into enterprise software. now we know it's private credit. enterprise software was king for about -- enterprise software was

king for like seven years. >> there was a time where, yeah, you needed to learn how to code. now you don't need to learn how to code anymore. >> that's where i'm going. >> because chatgpt or any of the other generative will do the coding for you. right now not bad, but soon will be better than anybody. >> jensen is saying you won't need any of these because they'll all be done internally. you'll ask a question. it will write the code. code writers, forget about it. go do something else. it comes out and you get it. the code people are superfluous. they're not yet. >> what happened to the code people? >> they went to stanford. they're smart. they'll figure it out. you know what? it's time to end the tyranny of the code writers. you know what? they've been be hind a lot of things that you and i don't appreciate. not going to elect presidents, not going to have vineyards.

it's going to be a new world. go out to sonoma and napa, not drinking their vintage, no way. >> could be dislocation as well. >> in the wine market? >> no, employment. >> you watch. >> i'm watching. don't you worry. i'm watching. >> i'll tell you what else? >> tell me what else. give me the key to the market. >> freeport. >> didn't see that coming. >> because copper is integral to evs and integral to the data center. if the data center rolls over, we know evs are rolling over. all i can tell you is that the slow ones now will later be fast. the times are changing here, david. >> times are changing, yes. >> go away from my window, chief. >> the stock is up 35%. didn't have a good year last year, freeport. >> freeport has been a commodity

until now. now it's to solve a new machine. >> jim, i'm going to weigh in a little bit on paramount, just a bit of a follow from our stories yesterday. really this is all a waiting game on paramount. they had their annual meeting today. >> are they giving everything to you? is everything to you? i'm saying no one else has paramount except for you. >> that's not true. >> joanne ross, scott mills and george chiefs -- >> yes, that's the three people running paramount. they had their annual meeting today, kind of interesting given everything going on. shari redstone spoke very briefly. i'm not going to go through all the terms we shared yesterday in terms of what skydance and its partner, redbird have offered. it's all up to her, all up to shari redstone. she is, i'm told, concerned

about litigation risk. this deal does not include a vote, so to speak, because that would doom it. there is some concern amongst advisers, particular lir ropes and gray, the tlau firm she's relying on, about what litigation risks would be and whether or not there's a possibility there could be some judgment that would be significant way down the road and, therefore, significantly eat into her net worth. remember, they're going to pay her, the deal under consideration, $2 billion. that includes roughly 77% voting stake in paramount and there's the additional $4.5 billion to buy out almost 50% of the b holders, also money for the as there. a billion and a half goes into the balance sheet. it's a huge check from skydance and red bird. larry ellison stepping up for a good amount of that. all that said, what can i tell you now? there is another question, jim, if she doesn't do this deal, given -- again, i know people on

twitter get very supset when i say this, but there is no other deal on the table. >> right. this is a vanity project. this is not unlike david tepper having charlotte -- >> this is paying a big number. i read it. people get very upset when you talk about the challenges that marymount has. it has linear cable networks. we know how challenged that is. you're talking about a deal that won't close for nine months, maybe a year, given the fcc approval and the like. willing to pay 15 for almost half your stock. who knows where the stock will be then. the point is some are saying she's worried about litigation risk on one side. what about on the other? what about if she actually says no to this deal and maybe there is another deal for nai. although that remains unclear. maybe she takes that. isn't she going to get sued as well on that side? shari redstone, it's in her court and everybody is waiting.

by the way, one other thing, there is a go shop, 45 days. they're all trying to say, listen, if there's anybody else out there, they're going to be able to come, we'll give them a 45-day go shop. not much to say between now and when she makes her decision and we find out whether this deal, in fact, is going to be signed, delivered and we'll get the press release. >> do we have any idea why the heck they want to do that? >> they feel there's a way to remake this company, significantly cut cost, david ellison and skydance, the animation, they feel they can significantly reposition paramount so that over time this will become a company worth three, four times more. that's the only reason you do a deal like this. you're taking on enormous risk but you're expecting a chance for significant reward. >> linear tv, linear networks. >> paramount plus, a decent position, but needs more scale. you've got a great library of

tv, some movie. >> remember when the ceo will not be named, used to talk about i love lucy. >> yeah. anyway, that's what i got for you. what else have you got for me? some interesting stuff today. >> i still think people are deciding that this aping meeting is going to be very important now. tht wwdc doesn't matter much. that's why i'm going to pivot right now to something that has more to do with the zeitgeist of america. >> you're not talking apple anymore? >> i just feel like i have something else on my mind. >> give it to me. what else is it? >> the big smasher. >> the what? >> the big smasher. >> i don't know what that means. >> here we go, zeitgeist of america. chili's. it's an lto, which means don't

give out a lot of shrimp. the big smasher is a hamburger, fries, bottomless chips, salsa, bottomless non-click drink, $10.99. in comparison they're saying wendy's combo which is wendy's double, fries and coke is $1.99. the big mac is $10.59. burger king is $14.69. >> where am i going to get the big smasher? >> chili's. the big smasher is big and juicy, and being advised -- do we have a chart of eat, e a t, versus mcdonald's. >> the owner of chili's. go out looking for a bring k brinker, you won't find it.

>> kevin comings into that company, energizes it, you can see what management means. david, people say there's no inflation in some of these -- the fast food companies are in denial. that is what a $10.99 big smasher does to a stock. so that's what i'm talking about. >> have you had a big smasher yet? >> no. >> has the wife tried one? >> i like chili's. >> baconater? >> my wife had it the other day. some people can't resist a baconater. it's something you have if you won't eat for the next 42 days. >> why is this not an all you can eat shrink? >> i always ask everyone, the chicken -- from chipotle. have you had that?

>> i have not, no. sorry. >> -- >> sorry to disappoint you. you want to talk a little roaring kitty being potentially banned? >> why not? >> -- >> -- >> they report a story this morning that says they're thinking maybe about banning him because of market manipulation. i'm not sure what grounds they would have for it. >> i'm ted pick, you're the lawyer. hey, what do you think of this? >> he can do whatever he wants. >> maybe it's good. maybe it's bad. >> do we have anything from the sec? >> pressing his own advantage which is that people follow him and listen to him. >> you haven't heard anything from the sec? >> no. >> okay. let's just let it go. it's great for us. why give it to robinhood? >> yeah. i like that. >> a play act. it didn't really happen.

i've been behind the scenes in these situations. everyone is clueless. what do you think? i don't know. what do you think? i don't know. i'll ask my wife. >> she's busy. >> that's the way it works in corporate america. people think they sit down and what does brandeis say, what would holmes say? how about brennan? i don't know, it's good for business. okay, next. that's corporate america as we know it, and yet they make it seem like it's real. >> my mantra is after all these years of following -- nobody knows anything. >> no. call your counsel. >> they're taking a shot. when the wind is at your back, it's great. when the wind -- >> i just feel like when i see that, i just say in the end there's someone in the room that just says this is really good for us. a lot of times that guy wins until gensler calls him. if gensler doesn't call, good. >> what would he call about? >> did you buy calls and then

pumped it up. >> buy calls before i put out a weird thing of a guy leaning forward in his chair? >> we do this ridiculous stuff where we recap what the hedge funds did? >> means nothing. >> how about the last day they buy a lot of gamestop. what about that? then he blows it to kingdom come and your idiotic buying. legal! >> totally. >> i rest my case. >> your investable friend. before we head to break, let's give you a bond report. we did talk about treasurys a bit earlier. saw yields were down not as sharply over the last week. take a look at the ten-year. we're at 4.351. over the two at 4.785%. we'll be right back.

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♪ you're looking live at the cnbc ceo council summit. you may recognize that lady. carl on stage with governor gretchen whitmer of michigan. >> michigan a battleground. >> one of the key battlegrounds for the presidency. >> if you lived in pennsylvania do you say i'm in a battleground. >> they're mupgs the keys. >> carl! >> and he's in conversation there. we are going to have a lot more from that summit in the next hour as well. not going to want to miss it. right up next, stop trading with m. ds] this healthcare network uses crowdstrike to defend against cyber attacks and protect patient information. but what if they didn't? [ominous background sounds] this is what it feels like

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>> of course. >> and then jeff green has been the ceo of trade desk and has been wanting to crack what he felt was a monopoly in advertising. now he has disney plus, now we have netflix. netflix, handing them the demand side platform this is important. jonathan kanter is the assistant attorney general for antitrust is suing google saying they're too powerful. i say wait a second. how powerful can they be if trade desk won the biggest contract out there and maybe the justice department's case is out by technology. jeff has the greatest technology and also a man who has been against google, obviously, in his lawsuit but i would love to hear andrew speak directly to this. >> because i think cantor and lynn are going to be at the conference i referenced earlier. the antitrust has figured

prominently in so many areas, including liquor and things of that nature lately. >> southern spirit which is the king of that. >> my wofrrld of mergers and acquisitions. trade desk was a 3.6 -- >> they've been on five times. i don't know if jonathan kanter is aware of how they have broken the monopoly of google. if i were argue the case of google, what you talking about? trade desk -- >> we just lost a contract to trade desk. >> i think the case gets weaker and weaker where i've been liking what ftc has been on to lately. >> right. you like the -- >> yes. >> let's find out what's on "mad" tonight. >> it's a plethora of companies. >> yes. >> i have what i think is -- i think maybe the most anti-cancer franchise, rob davis, astrazeneca. two plenary speeches last week

and i know j&j had one. but this is the man. sir pascal. he has got an anti- people should look at azm. this is a real company and we don't give it nearly enough because it's not clear. >> very biased. >> we are. >> we're all those things that i don't like. >> want to bring on a ceo of a foreign company. why? >> what is that about? >> coming up, what some very important people are saying at the cnbc ceo council summit now under way. keep it here.

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good tuesday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with mike santoli, we're live from post nine of the new york stock exchange. sara eisen is live from cnbc's ceo council summit, that's in

washington, d.c. carl quintanilla also there. he's busy on stage wrapping up his conversation with that lady, michigan's governor gretchen whitmer. let's give you a check on the markets and treasury yields a half hour into trading in the day. you see we're down on the two averages that matter. the 10-year is continuing to lose a bit of ground when it comes to yield. sara, over to you in d.c. and find out what you got coming up. >> yeah. it's an exciting day at the ceo council summit where all the hot topics are addressed as they relate to business. we've got an audience of ceos here, and they just heard from the head of the imf, managing director. i will bring you highlights from that conversation and they will hear, as you've been talking about, from two leaders on antitrust ahead of the ftc and the antitrust division at the department of justice. mike johnson, speaker of the house. everyone is trying to figure out what comes next in terms of

policy. obviously, we're in an election. trade, lregulatory policy at th top of the agenda. we're hearing what businesses can expect. jeff soloman is one of the ceos here and we'll talk to him on this show about what he's hearing, how he's feeling about the economy and the market and fed and what we're getting from washington. it's a good opportunity for ceos to really have the conversations about how the politics and policy are impacting their business and how they plan in this environment, where there's ton tons uncertainty, david, that's the vibe here. >> with ap election, obviously, looming as well. we'll be back to you soon and often. thank you. let's get jobs data out moments ago. rick santelli has it for us. rick? >> yes, david. watch yields fall, watch stock rally. job openings and labor turnover was just released for the month of april. always two months in arrears,

and it came in definitely lighter than expected. they're expecting a number around 8.3 million. 8, 059, 000. what's interesting, last month's 8, 488, 000. whether looking at last month's revision or the current one, they come to three years, basically, going all the way back to february of '21 when under 8 million. that is the comp and yields are moving lower because of the implications for the fed at easing based on potentially a less tight labor market. factory orders for the month of april up 0.7% near expectations, but a big negative revision from 1.6 original to only 0.7. factory orders ex-transportation up 0.7, so we can see transportation orders didn't negatively affect that number.

last month loses 0.1 from a path of 1% to up 0.4. durable goods orders april finals replacing mid month reads. the mid month read of 0.7, now moves to 0.6. strip out transportation, loses a little bit, remains at 0.4. exactly as expected. exactly as the mid month read. let's look at capital good orders nondefense, exair, capital spending proxy, up 0.2, lost 0.1 from its mid-month of 0.3. and finally switching gears from orders to shipments, they remain up 0.4. the jolts numbers and the weaker than expected revises, certainly propelling yields a bit lower and keep in mind we are now hovering close to that 4.30 level in 10s which held and caused us to bounce close to 470, an important technical area to pay close attention to.

ecb thursday, will they cut? many more voices think they won't, even though german unemployment jumped in the latest reading. david faber, back to you. >> hey, rick, you mentioned the yield reaction here. we were starting to price in a greater likelihood of a september rate cut by the fed before these numbers. i would assume this might solidify that view? >> yes. it definitely should solidify that view. however, it's going to be very fascinating to see what ecb does thursday. many believe these are coordinated moves, so maybe they'll tip their hand a bit for how we will start to behave if the ecb moves to lower rates first. >> rick, thank you. rick santelli. let's get back over to sara as well. this is typically the time in the show when sara has charts about the macro economy, although i know today you have excerpts from your interview with the imf director. >> commentary. >> right. yeah. i would say that the jolts

report, the job openings number, is indicative of what we were talking about. increasing normalization. job openings were sky high in the last few years coming out of the covid pandemic, and it was one reason why the fed was looking at a tight labor market and seeing inflation as still a problem. as that number comes down -- we're not fully back to prepandemic levels on job openings, moderating here, the soft landing story comes in and that is exactly the phrase the head of the imf used when she described her outlook for the global economy. here's what she said she's seeing. >> first thing we see is a world economy that has proven to be more resilient than we feared some time ago. in fact, the last two years global gdp is almost a percentage point higher than we thought it would be in 2022. so we gained 6. 7% of real gdp

in the last two years. >> and why are we in better shape than the imf and everybody expected? number one, the resilience of the u.s. economy which has been a huge global story and big driver of growth and also emerging markets economies she was quick to point out are in different shape than they have been coming out of other crises. theirfiscal positions are in better shape, their growth trajectories are more revillent than we've seen and for those two reasons she expects the world economy to land softly, says inflation will continue to come down. she said interest rates will come not necessarily coordinated, i think in a nod to what rick was talking about and the fact that we are expecting a cut this week from the ecb, a little bit later on this year from the federal reserve, and that should preserve a global economy that's still in growth mode, but said in the medium term, wouldn't grow as fast as it has in prior years. david, this was a really interesting point she made because it goes against kind of

some of the political orthodoxy right now, certainly what we're getting from both parties, the democrats and republicans, she really came out strongly against tariffs, against trade barriers as hurting growth, as fueling inflation, and even had some criticism around industrial policies. which she said are happening in u.s., in china, and in europe as she says people don't learn the history lessons as it relates to their economy, acknowledged there are national security reasons, given what happened, for instance, with russia's invasion of ukraine, to bring production of certain manufacturing items, chips, you know, commodities at home, she acknowledged the reasons behind it, but really is worried about the economic fallout from that. so when she goes to g-7 in italy and goes these g-20 meetings, it's interesting she's the one voice there that says -- she used the word willy-nilly no willy-nilly industrial policiesp we're seeing a lot of them and

they don't make a lot of economic sense. it is something for investors to ponder how that will shake out in the coming years, potentially decades. >> she's certainly against trend, no doubt about that, given -- >> exactly. >> yeah. given where we are right now and what seems to be the divide, so to speak, that only widens in terms of the two global economies, so to speak, china and the u.s. sara, you're going to stick around i know for the rest of the hour. let's take a quick look at the market which is down, and interest rates first we've seen have backed off. we're down with 62 basis points or so on the 10-year. at this point, futures perhaps pricing in a quarter point rate cut in december. odds of a september moving -- you heard rick answer this as well in answer to mike's question -- are edging up. our next guest thinks monetary policy are not as restrictive as rates suggest. he's jefferies chief market strategist and a cnbc

contributor. welcome. >> thanks, david. i like that. i like the combo title. >> happy to have you as a contributor. >> his name is david zurboss, by the way. >> yes. >> to those who don't know, david. so, you've been saying this for a while, that things are a bit less tight i should say. >> yes. >> or restrictive than we would think because of the balance sheet. continues? >> continues. and i think with the qt tapering, it's probably, you know, set to continue even more aggressively than i might have thought at the beginning of the year. i think that's been a helpful tailwind. i guess i don't have a lot new to say on that subject. the new stuff seems to be the beginning of this month, just a lot of trades getting unwound, a lot of macro stories, whether it's copper, the yep, oil, a lot of stuff happening that seems a little bit out of the ordinary to me. mike and i were talking about that before we walked on set, and that put together, i don't know what the month of june is really all about.

>> yeah. >> you recognize it's out of the ordinary -- >> i think there's a seeming change, at least budding change of character, i wonder about, where you've seen treasury yields back off, higher sensitivity to any sign of softening u.s. growth i guess that was the ism reaction and yet usually when yields have come down, small caps and banks and cyclicals rally and broaden out the market and the tech stocks can take a breather. didn't happen yesterday. we're kind of churning around on equities. i wonder what you think the message is, bonds rallying in the face of these numbers which i'm not sure if the overall complexion of the growth has changed? >> bontsds rally was big yesterday and there was no data, right, there was no story for that. >> i guess the ism. >> not a huge up with. >> for me, i don't know. i'm on a wait and see. my baseline for the summer, david, is kind of a lower, fed waiting, patient, low position, all the words they've been

using, not in a rush. we'll all talk about politics and what trump versus biden means and that's going to get hotter as the debate happens, but i think the economic story and from the fed's perspective is very much on hold. we need three months of something to confirm there's a move, if at all, and so i'm -- i feel like the volatility is a summer volatility story, unless we get a big shock of some, you know, geopolitical nature. that's kind of how i'm thinking. i was -- i'll say i was a little surprised at the size of the market moves to start the year and the coordination of unwinds i hear our clients talking about. we'll wait and see. to be determined. >> sara has a question. >> david. >> yeah. i'm just curious why the equity market isn't responding better to the rally in bonds? if equity markets have been craving fed cuts, lower bond yields, soft landing story, shouldn't this be received much

better? >> you would have thought so. you know the story that -- i'm looking at commodities as well. you know, just seeing copper 10 plus percent off the highs, everything, and oil -- the oil start to the year was very interesting to me, so -- >> start to the year or the month? >> the month. yes, mike. we're back to low levels -- >> almost basically flat on the year. >> after reasons you think it should be higher, right. it feels like a slowdown story getting priced in. if i had to make my guess, people are getting more nervous about a period going into the election, maybe, sara, you're there talking to these ceos, this is a time where you're not probably jumping into a big investment project you're going to wait and see what happens until november , so maybe we ge two quarters of slowing slash stagnation, and -- >> what are you watching to

confirm your suspicions? >> probably what sara was just talking about. seeing if the s&p can react better to some of that easing pressure that comes into the fixed income markets. if it's not, it really is confirming that people are more nervous about the uncertainty related to the election, or just a more significant slowing than they had priced. again, it's early. i just have to say, i thought the price action seemed extremely aggressive for the amount of data or knowledge that we got, just for the beginning of the month. >> seems like it could be some kind of mechanical flows or something -- >> yeah. >> yeah. >> these markets like, you know, they make momentum and go to far reaches when they see they can take stops out and the like. >> got you. >> david, thank you. >> always a pleasure. >> welcome as a contributor. david zervos. another david here, sara has that for us. >> well, so just want to inject into the conversation as we're talking about what's next for the consumer, last night i

moderated a few sessions at the nyu hospitality conference and talked to a lot of hotel ceos that were talking about more normalized demand. david solomon, the ceo of goldman sachs, at the conference and i asked him when it comes to consumer demand, how he perceives it right now and what's happening with the overall economy. listen to what he said. >> on the last panel sounds like when it comes to travel demand, it's normalizing. it's not booming like we saw necessarily last year, but it still looks pretty strong. how do you think about what the consumer looks like in the u.s.? >> yeah. i listen very carefully to what they had to say because they're, obviously, a small data point into consumer behavior. >> strong part of the economy right now. >> and a strong part of the economy right now. i would step back at just a very high level, i think over the last six months particularly in the past few months, we've seen and you can see it in the

quarterly earnings from a variety of companies, shifts in consumer behavior to me indicate the consumers are taking a little bit more cautious approach to have their allocated dollars. i think the reason for it is very, very clear. we talk about inflation, we talk about inflation coming down, but inflation is cumulative. so things that matter to the average american consumer are 20 to 25% more expensive today than they were four years ago. and that's a cumulative impact that i think is starting to have some impact on behavior. now the economy i think is still in very good shape. we have two, i think,you know, kind of macro tailwinds that are driving continued strong gdp growth, despite the fact that we've tightened monetary conditions materially over the course of the last 12 to 18 months, and that's first the level of government spending and, in addition, this infrastructure shift around technology as we transition from cpus to gpus and make the

infrastructure investment in data centers and power and all the infrastructure we need to keep up with computer capacity. those are big tailwinds. big tailwinds. for economic activity here and around the world. the consumer starting to see shifting behaviors and i think we need to watch very, very closely. but the economy is still chugging along pretty well. >> david solomon, ceo of goldman sachs, talking about the consumer and, david, i pressed him on this idea of what he thinks about the fed, and he was saying a few weeks ago he made some headlines accidentally by saying he wouldn't be surprised if the fed doesn't cut rates this year, and said that they were totally taken out of context and refused to make a prediction about how many cuts we'll get, whether the fed cuts this year. it's just hard to tell. but -- so he was clear about that. but did say on these rates that we're seeing, just in the market, these bond yields, that -- and we've heard this from a number of bank ceos and a

number of investors who have been around for a while, that these levels are more normal and get used to these levels. the zero interest rates that were an anomaly. don't expect we're going back there any time soon. something to think about as we watch daily fluctuations and lower bond yields, he i think is one, with others, that thinks this is the new normal of these elevated rates and that doesn't mean it will restrict activity. signs of capital markets coming back, m&a not horrible, he said, should pick up a little bit further here. obviously, they're seeing more activity, but the sort of high yield environment, something for investors to ponder as we figure out, you know, how to price equities in the coming years. >> yeah. arguably, you know, part of the job of ceo of goldman sachs is to make sure you're not too surprised if rates don't change over the course of the year, which is a decent probability i guess. it is, you know, anybody who came into the business before the 2000s would remember, 10-year treasury yields in the

zone of nominal gdp is kind of the way history says it ought to be, and that's roughly where we are, if anything, yields are a little low. >> and also he said given the amount of, first of all, debt that we've taken on, that changes the equation, right, for where bond yields should be and settle. he characterized the economy, you heard, as fairly robust and resilient and being buffeted by two tailwinds like fiscal spending and ai, by the way, something he's very excited about. i asked him in the final question, what's most exciting, the biggest opportunity for you at goldman and something the audience can take away, and he mentioned the generative ai possibility. those two sort of more structural, at least longer lasting tailwind, keeping the economy from going into recession where we have such high debt and deficit levels make the case for higher yields. >> absolutely where most of the capital in motion is headed i would say. ai investment. see you in a bit. as we head to a break three big

movers we're watching this hour. gamestop giving back gains, still up double digits on the week. you see it down 5.5% today. we'll give you the latest on the meme moves. intel unveiling new ai chips at the conference in taiwan. looking to better compete with the likes of nvidia and amazon. intel down 0.3%. watch tesla, reporting elon musk ordered nvidia to ship thousands of chips reserved for tesla to musk's other ventures, x and xai. more on this story ahead on the show. tesla down slightly. "squawk on the street" back after this. the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo

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welcome back. gamestop giving back some gains this morning but hanging on a bit above $25 a share. let's get to kate rooney tracking the latest headlines around the meme names gamestop at the center. kate? >> yeah. mike, there's a couple big headlines. the wall street journal reporting e-trade is reporting kicking keith gill off the platform citing concerns around market manipulation. the journal says the sec is having internal discussions about whether this flood we've seen of social media posts from gill who goes by roaring kitty amounts to any sort of market manipulation. gill led resell traders into

gamestop short squeeze. the incruteble nature of his post, thereverse uno card, unclear it will make it hard and tough one for the sec to go after, unclear he's giving financial advice here, does not mention the company and the implicit message has been to go out and buy. the likely income is they focus on the brokerage firms. short seller andrew of citron research revealing a new short position against gamestop yesterday saying in part that we believe someone is backing gill, they say there's no way he made this size trade alone. his report the finances don't support his trade. investors as they put it will see through this roaring icarus. noting changes in today's strategy than 2021, what made keith gill aka kitty interesting was his authenticity. he shared a detailed investment thesis where he put his money where his mouth was which

combined with a high short interest and a restless country and boom, investing history. this time, it feels different. back over to you. >> all right. kate, thank you. up next, surprising early results coming out of india's elections and that is having an impact on its markets. details and the fallout after a quick break.

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. shares of eli lilly very close to new all-time highs. this is a number of names in the pharmaceutical sector presented at the world's largest conference reach search this week. dom chu has been tracking the action and has more for us. >> we'll start with a deeper dive on eli lilly as you mentioned here, moving between gains and losses after notching that record high in yesterday's session. from a market perspective, lilly is hovering near that $790 billion range. that makes it one of the largest members of the entire s&p 500, surpassing names like tesla and broadcom and jpmorgan as well, larger than the market caps of merck and johnson & johnson combined. now, speaking of that trade, that stock trading less than 5% away from its march all-time highs as well.

among the names presenting at that american society of clinical oncologist meeting, today announcing promising data for a skin cancer vaccine developing in partnership with moderna and by the way, moderna shares are lower today as you can see here, but still one of the best performers of the year so far up by more than 40% on just that year-to-date basis. keep an eye on that. then we're going to end here with a check on astrazeneca which announced treatments aimed at breast and lung treatment as well, hitting a record high in this morning's trade. it gets a star up here and by the way, be sure to tune in to "mad money" later on tonight with jim cramer for an interview with astrazeneca's ceo keep an eye on that. i'll send things back down to you folks at the new york stock exchange. >> dom, thank you. stocks in india wiping out a massive rally as the count in the general election continues today. to seema moody with the latest. pretty radical rethink overnight. >> this is a final countdown to the world's biggest election,

mike, and we've been tracking the polls, prime minister modi will retain power but an early lead suggests a smaller than expected majority is a big upset. markets were betting on his popularity resulting in his party winning enough seats on its own. the latest results raise questions about his ability to pass economic reforms that would address rising unemployment and other policies aimed to help businesses expand in the country. now some u.s. companies have invested heavily in india during modi's decade in power. starbucks opened its 400th store there, walmart's expansion footprint continues. apple's ceo tim cook this past earnings season says he sees india as an exciting market and major focus for the company. after hitting a record high overnight, ishares in the etf down about 7% on pace for its worst day since december of 20 1. even when we take a step back and look at investor positioning, india's weighting into the global index has risen from 10% back in 2020 to 19% at

its latest revision, right behind china which goes to show that investors even if you don't own indian stocks you may have exposure to this market through the emerging markets funds. >> just in terms of the election itself, because i know it takes place over a period of time, can you just explain when we're going to know the final results? >> in a couple hours we'll know the final results of this election to your point that is taking over 6 weeks, 1.4 billion that have gone to the polls a herculean effort among officials to orchestrate this huge undertaking. this is a big surprise. everyone was expecting a landslide victory for this individual who has not only appeased his base, but also a number of corporate giants who when he came to the white house, you know, they all lined up, nadella, cook, bezos, others to meet him. >> markets reacting to the possibility or likelihood he won't have as free a hand. >> to pass these economic reforms. they still make it past. a year versus six months.

>> interesting. thanks. still to come, former ecb president jean claude with his take on whether europe gets a rate cut this week and what that could mean for the u.s. and global economy. he joins us next.

welcome back. i'm pippa stevens with your cnbc news update. opening statements are under way this morning in hunter biden's federal gun charges trial. first lady jill biden stepped into court just minutes after hunter entered this morning. a source tells nbc news there will be a steady stream of family and friends attending the protest. hunter biden has pleaded not guilty in the case which accuses him of lying about his drugs use to obtain a firearm. national security adviser jake sullivan is expected to meet this morning with hostage families of americans believed to be held by hamas in gaza.

it comes as the u.s. pushes fragile cease-fire negotiations in the israel-hamas war. and after the israeli defense force announced the deaths of four more hostages in hamas captivity, three of them in their 80s. and southwest is preparing for the first big heat wave of the summer. the national weather service says people from las vegas to phoenix can expect to see dangerous, triple-digit temperatures wednesday morning to friday evening. back to you. >> okay. pippa, thank you. pippa stevens let's turn to the global economy. europe bracing for the possibility of interest cuts later this week. big meeting on thursday. let's bring in the former head of the european central bank. he was the president there, bank of france honorary governor. it's great to have you. i can't think of a better guest this week to talk to. do you think they will pull the trigger and cut rates? >> we'll see, of course, but my intuition is that they will pull

the trirg and decrease -- trigger and decrease rate business 25%, even if there has been bad news more or less unexpected in regards to the goal which is to stabilize prices and having inflation going down. the bad news, now four bad news, one headline inflation at 2.6%, 0.2% more than the previous month. gold inflation 2.9. equally 0.2% inflation more than the previous month. wages are picking up in the first quarter of this year, and services inflation are also picking up quite strongly. and, of course, it goes probably for the new focused projections which we've explained next thursday to be also with some

bad news. of course, you have also news, unemployment decreased in april which is the lowest level ever observed, and also the pmi indicates that recovery is now going on in the u.n. so we avoided recession. we have recovery going on. not surprisingly, we have more inflation that was suspected. but still, i think it's what it is extremely likely that they will decrease rates, yes. >> and the other rethink that's going on right now is just how many rate cuts they will be able to achieve this year, given what you say is the bad news of stickier inflation. so what's your best guess at this point? do you think they'll -- after this week, how many more will we get before the end of the year? >> yeah.

first of all, we must, of course, accept that data could be different from month to month, quarter to quarter, so we have to remain cautious and prudent. if i take my best guess, taking into account all the information we have today, instead of thinking that it was likely that they would decrease rates twice again after the june decrease before the end of the year, i think it's more reasonable to think of one decrease of rates. again, this is, you know, the central -- my central intuition. if that changes we could have a lot of better news as we go through inflation and we could have even more bad news. again, i think it's very reasonable the ecb as well as to the fed to be data i would say observing and data dependent to see exactly what they do because the goal is very clearly to be

around 2% during. that's the goal. so again, it's easier for the european than for the fed to be at that goal, but again, we will see what happens and i understand clearly that they will not do the same in the u.s. fed and in the ecb because, again, even the goal is the same, the situation is not necessarily the same. >> why do you think that is? why do you think that we are behind europe in the rate cutting path and dealing with these higher inflation rates? >> i think maze mainly a question of the economy. the economy is still i wouldn't say boring, but going very well in the u.s. when i said in europe it is now recovering slowly. i explained the difference between the two sides of the atlantic because there has been

in the united states of america, a lot of budget expansion, which is, of course, giving a lot of real economy -- boring. the difference is the rate between headline inflation, it's 0.8, 3.4 in the u.s. 2.6 in europe, core inflation it is 3.6, 3.9. so there is not a big, big difference, still, of course, it is a substantial difference in terms of reaching the goal to around 2% in '25. >> do you think that europe will be able to maintain the soft landing? i mean it has been remarkably resilient, not as strong as the u.s., but still has not gone into recession like everyone predicted with the higher interest rates and higher

inflation rates? >> you're absolutely right. i mentioned the last pmi figure clearly showing pick up in the growth in the service industry, in particular, not in the manufacturing sector, but in the service sector, there is a really i would say fear which i did not expect that, but again, as i say, is in line more or less with what we have observed as we go into the services inflation, which has quite substantial. not surprised to see the services being responsible both for inflation and for better growth than expected. now it seems to me it's extremely likely that we won't have a recession in europe, clearly we are -- >> yeah. >> like in the u.s. with relatively soft landing, which is quite remarkable because it proves that the central banks did quite well on both sides of the atlantic. >> yes. >> in the regaining control of

the inflation and avoiding recession. >> yeah. remarkable balancing act. valuable to have you especially on a week like this where we could see a historic rate cut, first time in years, from the ecb. thank you very much. "squawk on the street" is going to continue live from washington, d.c., where cnbc's ceo council summit we're going to talk to jeff solomon of td cowen, next. stay with us.

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what we think is while globalization is not gone, there are changes in trade patterns, very see especially across politically, trade is slowing down even more than it is slowing down otherwise, and it is slowing down. we have seen tripling of trade restrictions in the last year from 1,000 to 3,000 now. and the most worrisome thing is we see an embracement of industrial policy willy-nilly everywhere. >> willy-nilly industrial policy, she called out china, she called out the u.s. and she called out europe. that was, of course, imf

managing director this morning here at the cnbc ceo council summit, talking about reversals in globalization, trade, industrial policy and how that's hurting the economy. to discuss what he's seeing, td cowen president, jeff solomon. what did you make of the morning? i thought it was a pretty stark wake-up call to what's happening and what seems to be popular and going against the idea we need to have trade barriers and tariffs and industrial policy. >> first of all, that was a great session. i thought chockful of information. when i look at these things, we have to look at two sides. we came through a period of massive fiscal spending across the board coming off the back of the pandemic. when you counterbalance the amount of fiscal spend that has gone on, certainly in the united states, but i would say globally, you counteract that with trade restrictions, it actually has a dampening effect

on the global economy. and i find the two to be working in tandem. whether that was intentional or not, i don't know. when we talk about things like building resilient supply chains or deglobalization being a gating item on global growth, fiscal spend is the thing you do to make sure you don't roll off the growth curve. i feel like it's working in tandem with one another. >> that's why we're doing so well, despite some of these restrictions? >> i would say u.s. exceptionalism is a theme that head of td has been talking about for about six months. this idea that the united states is actually growing, and this idea that because of employment numbers and population growth and a bunch of other things happening in the united states, which are a bit surprising, it's been incredibly resilient, even in the face of rising rates. >> population growth is now slowing down.

>> we've actually had positive immigration. we are still at a crazy low -- >> i'm talking about the birth rate. >> right. driving productivity in the united states is allowed the fed to maintain a higher rate structure for a while and it hasn't impeded consumer spending or hurt employment at all in a meaningful way. >> do you think they're going to cut? you have been correct when you said -- when you came on and said, forget it. six cuts priced in the market, not going to happen. >> i think the earliest they would do something is december. they might not have to. just because the rate structure has repriced higher, and the economy seems to be doing just fine. why? whenou underlying fundamentals of consumers, a lot of consumers who carry debt are carrying long-term fixed rate in the united states. that's different than when we headed into the global financial crisis where everyone was super sensitive to short-term rates.

even there consumer debt is actually pretty low. when you look at the amount of money put in people's pockets during the pandemic and savings, it might be burning off, but actually even in a higher price environment, even with greater inflation, people are still doing okay because they're still employed. the combination of all those things -- >> we got another update today on job openings. >> that's okay. it's not rolling off a cliff. it's supposed to cool. let's be really clear. cooling is not a bad thing as long as it doesn't roll off the cliff and we go into a recession. i would argue when you look out on this, the u.s. economy is in great shape. >> what about the capital markets. you view it through that lens, m&a, ipo activity. >> m&a continues to pick up. not where we would like to see it but it continues to pick up off the back of the strategic stuff happening, certainly in the energy sector we've seen a bunch of consolidation, health care we've seen a bunch of consolidation. in those particular cases, we'll continue to see that. i also think that sponsors are

figuring out how to get deals done in a higher rate structure environment. we're starting to see movement there. >> we are? that was a missing element, right? >> resurgence, leveraged lending market, that is suggesting that people are refinancing themselves, or preparing themselves to be able to sell companies, it's a very healthy dynamic today because things are getting done. six or eight months alg people were questioning or waiting for a lower rate structure. i just don't think it's coming. >> we're going to hear from the head of the ftc today, the speaker of the house. what sort of policy clarity do you want to hear in order to plan your business in what's a very uncertain environment where now on the campaign trail it's not about the policies. >> i'm for lighter regulation. i think we talked about this before. i think we should be looking at

incentivizing banks and companies to do what we want them to do rather than legislating or regulating the way we don't want them to do things. you can create incentive structures for businesses to do things like employ people more instead of layering on a bunch of regulation that just actually eats away at people's margins. the connectivity between increased regulation and i've got to maintain my margins so i'm going to fire a bunch of people to do that, i'm not sure regulators actually think about those things. we do, running businesses. my advice, if you're asking me for that, my advice to regulators would be, we still need to regulate but can we think about regulating in a way that incentivizing banks, financial institutions generally as well as businesses to do the things we want. >> that's not happening? >> sometimes it happens but more times than not that's not the rhetoric we hear. i would encourage regulators to think about things that way.

>> it's so good you're here to have those interactions and conversations. jeff solomon, thank you very much. just a taste of what's going on here, david. back over to you. >> and, sara, i know you've got to go get ready to host your panel on the consumer economy. we'll have a lot more coming from our ceo summit in d.c. as well as lina khan, jonathan kanter. we'll take part with andrew ross sorkin. we have a lot more "money movers" coming up next. rade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders.

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idris elba works here? mm-hmm. ya, he's super nice. good tuesday morning to you. welcome to "money movers." i'm contessa brewer with mike santoli and we're life at post nine of the new york stock exchange. carl and sara are on assignment at the cnbc ceo council. today we're looking at deutsche bank's chief global strategist, bankim chadha, how it creates buying opportunities. elon m