th unconditionally. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm andrea canning. thank you for watching. ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede with ann annetteweisbach and silvia amaro in london. the ecb is ending the tightening cycle. a former board member tells cnbc the north market is still adjuso the ecb cycle. >> now you see the opposite

situation where the markets are a bit more hawkish than what we expect from the ecb. looks like another day of green with european equities driven up by tech stocks which brought a rally across all markets. and nvidia's market cap crossed the $3 trillion market cap while asml rallies to the number two spot in europe. and d-day commemorated 80 years on as war once again casts a shadow over the continent. so, we're watching the ecb this morning.

we are counting down to what is expected to be the central bank's first rate cut since september, 2019. a pivotal meeting coming out today. markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25-basis point move lower today. it is all but been telegraphed by everyone saying unless something drastic happens, this is what you will see. the question is about the future. the cut is all but certain and attention to what is next. the traders are split if the ecb will deliver two or three cuts by the end of the year. these are the projections. pricing in 65 basis points of easing according to lseg data. now, the timing of today's expected rate cut is in some ways, perhaps, unusual for the ecb. the central bank launched previous rate cutting cycles in

response to the financial crisis of 2008 as well as, of course, the eurozone debt crisis in 2011 and most recently to inflation falling below the 2% target in 2019. but, today, the ecb sees an improving economic picture with inflation at target pretty much next year and seeing improving growth outlook. that is why you are getting the sense there will be a cut, but what more is there ultimately in this picture. all of this has meant that european markets along markets across the globe have moved significantly higher. this is not all based on the ecb. the tech counters stateside have played an impact on the market picture, especially nvidia, which has moved significantly higher. yesterday, 5%, surpassing $5 trillion. behind microsoft.

on this side of the atlantic, we have asml, the number two spot taken by asml when it comes to european companies. again, the a.i., the chip semiconductor space is very important. that is why you are seeing gains with the daix dax higher. the stoxx 600 in record territory as we have seen recently. let's get to the impact and not far from the 2.5 month high that it touched on tuesday at 108.76 is where we are right now. we have the fed and the bank of japan putting out their rate decisions next week, but it will all be about what the future holds in terms of rate cuts in europe. this is likely to move because of that. here are the european yield stories. yields tumbling this week in line with what is anticipated out of the ecb which is the cut

then in interest rates. the ten-year bund at 2.52. slightly higher. two basis points to the good on the italian paper of 3.82. silvia is following the story for us in london. annette does join us in frankfort. this is a pivotal time for the ecb as well, annette, as it will become very important for them as well. >> reporter: exactly. today's rate cut of 25 basis points is more or less a given. the key question is what is next. is next a committed rate cutting cycle or is next a data dependent approach where we will see another rate cut in september and possibly another one in december? the market moved from being very

bullish with loads of rate cuts to super dovish with the rate-cutting environment. currently pricing in 65 basis points until the end of the year. whereas even the likes of the chief economist, former chief economist that i spoke to yesterday, did see a likelihood of 75-basis point cuts to the end of the year. let's listen in to what he had to say. >> there is a lot of uncertainty. i think 75 basis points this year looks reasonreasonable. i think many council members must have that in mind. there are a lot of risks on both sides. by the way, the ecb is looking more on the risk of sticky inflation and about negative supply shock related to geopolitical developments or other things. it could go both ways. i think whatyou see in markets,

to today is a little bit too -- not aggressive enough in terms of rate cuts. i think the markets have become more cautious about the rate cut perspective. i think a little bit too much. >> reporter: of course, the ecb is focusing on wage data. the first quarter, we saw waging tick up slightly. that could be a one-off because there were really very robust wage negotiations like here in germany. the ecb probably wants to see how this is actually developing during the course of the second quarter and then in september, there will be a new round of staff projections which could got give more clarity whether the inflationary path is really going down and whether this gives them more room to actually cut rates. and another point, of course, is the independent from the policy setting in the united states. that's what we are going to discuss later during the show. with that, back to you. >> annette, thank you.

of course, we are continuing that coverage across the day. of course, let's head over, as well, to silvia. this continuing story is one we will follow through throughout the day as well, silvia. a very important ecb meeting. >> reporter: exactly. this morning, we are on the trading floor of barclays monitoring what this day means from the market perspective. traders are getting busier and busier. they told me things get a little bit quieter before the rate decision and then volumes pick up significantly the moment we get data and commentary from the ecb. i already had a chance to speak to some of the analysts from barclays about the impact of this rate decision on equities and what this means for macroeconomics picture as well. later on, we will interview the chief executive officer for barclays europe. stay tuned for that interview as well. as we approach this ecb rate decision, the barclays house

view is a rate cut of 35 basis points and this is going to start a rate cutting cycle of 15015 1 150-basis points until june of 2025. we will see what message we get from the ecb about the future path of the rate policy and if they will give any indications, really. at the same time, what you think barclays is expecting between now and the end of the year, we are talking about 75-basis points of cuts. other banks are different with the cuts from the ecb between now and the end of the year. as i was saying earlier, let's see what direction we might get from the ecb later on today. just a final point to talk about the macro economic proper sections we will get from the ecb today. barclays headlining inflation and core inflation will be slightly revised upwards and they are keeping a close eye on

the core inflation numbers. we are keeping a close eye on that essentially to try to understand how the ecb is feeling in terms of the inflation path going forward because, of course, this has been a huge, huge drive for monetary policy so far. let's see what will happen. we are approaching that key decision in a couple hours time. as i was saying earlier, we will have more guests from the barclays trading floor for knew you in a couple of moments. >> thank you, silvia. if you can't catch it on tv, you can catch it with the live block on cnbc.com. you can catch the special programming this afternoon in the ecb meeting right here at 2:00 p.m. cet. coming up on the show, we will get more perspective on the rate decision with the former ecb vice president vitor constancio. don't miss that first on cnbc interview. that's coming up next.

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interest rates here in europe first since september of 2019. before we get to that, here is what the markets look like. the stoxx 600, as i noted earlier on, not far away from the record high. 525.33. will we reach that record today? it is following on what we see stateside and parts of asia as well. it has been a big push higher. a lot of that comes from the tech stocks. taking a look today, some of the tech counters have jumped 2%. let's look at the boards which have moved things quite rhigher here as well. healthcare up 1% with novo nordisk up to the good. and smi report of the record highs here. that has moved .50% today with more record territories with the

ibex 35 with .13% to the good. when one looks at the sectors, tech stocks are toward the top of the stoxx 600. 1.7% to the good at the start of the trading day. healthcare stocks adding 1%. like i said, novo nordisk is a significant push higher. that's why you see tech and healthcare at the top end of the counter. utilities and telecoms out of step with the market going down on that front. industrials and household goods managing to move higher. of course, the market will focus on the ecb decision. on to the u.s. futures here. it looks like we could be on for benign moves from the stateside move after yesterday's move higher with intraday records. nasdaq moving 2%. nvidia sucking the a.i. out of the market climbing 5%.

speaking of nvidia, this is pretty much the stock we will all focus on. that's been the behemoth that's really moved higher then. we are looking at asml. 2.3% higher. taiwan semiconductor up 5%. the reason why is the chip demand story which continues to move higher. analysts and investors are not just looking at where nvidia is right now. looking at where to from here and that growth has really been very significant and important for markets. you could have added applied materials to the market as well then to receive the upgrade from barclays yesterday saying there is a robust uptick in orders for foreign semiconductor equipment particularly out of china. nvidia has overtaken apple to become the world's second

largest company by market capitalization after breaking the $3 trillion barrier in wednesday's trade. that's a significant move there. it does come ahead of the 10-to-1 stock split which is set to become effective today after the company's share price surged from $38 five years ago -- $38 five years ago -- to over $1,200. asml became beeurope's second largest company surpassing lvmh in market value for the first time. this after the report that the company's cfo was positive about strong orders coming from its biggest client, that being tsmc. asml targeted sales between 30 billion euro and 40 billion euro in 2025 citing stronger demand for chips used in smartphones as well as in a.i. asml this year alone has gone up

42%. the meteoric rise with nvidia up 52% so far this year. but all the focus on the ecb. we are counting down to the central bank's first rate cut since 2019. annette is joining us with a special guest and what is happening for today and the future. >> reporter: that is right. we get the first rate cut since 2019. most likely is a 25-basis point cut. the key is what rate trajectory are we in for? is the ecb committed to cut forcefully orwhat does it look at in setting the rate path going forward?

i'm happy and glad to be joined by vitor constancio. good morning, sir. >> good morning, annette. >> reporter: let me look at what we were just discussing the rate path after today's rate cut. what do you think the ecb will concentrate on? do you think the ecb can act independently from the fed? >> oh, yes, no doubt about that. it has happened once or twice in the past. although, normally, the world economy is very much synchronized between the u.s. and europe in many aspects, particularly in what regards the markets' developments. the ecb, of course, has to think about the european economy and i think they will decide today the

first cut of 25 basis points after all statements of the members of the governing council and if it did not happen, it would provoke a backlash in markets and a bit, you know, arming the reputation of the ecb. i'm counting on that cut. >> reporter: let's look a little bit into the future, vitor, as well. the market is pricing in 65 basis points and cuts until the end of the year. so, do you think the market is, perhaps, too cautious when it comes to the power of the ecb of cutting rates? >> in terms of my expectations or focus regarding the way the governing councilof the ecb will take decisions, i think the market is not too optimistic

because there are some aspects that the governing council, i'm sure, is a bit worried about. first, of course, there was this uptick of inflation in may compared with april. just 0.2% points. also, it was the first month where energy costs month on month stopped to decrease and slight increase of 0.3% in may. that will affect the future. then there was, of course, the jump in inflation on services which went up from 3.7% in april to 4.1% in may. that will be in the minds of the governing council because they

are short in dynamics that it may create on members some doubt of the lingering decline in the path of inflation. i think that the council will be, perhaps, too cautious itself, so the market expectations are not off the m mark. although there will be justification to continue with the cuts until the end of the year because the wages have been decelerating and the economy is still very weak when compared with the united states. first, the first quarter year on year growth was 0.4% after five quarters no growth. the forecast is 0.6% or 0.7%

average growth for the whole year. the economy is weak. wages have been decelerating and their own ecb projections point to an an average inflation of 0.23%. i'm sure they will increase the annual forecasts for 2024 in the projections that they will disclose. but nevertheless, being forward looking as monetary policy should always be, then there is, of course, justification to continue on a path of further cuts. so, nevertheless, in terms of forecast or expectations, i don't foresee at the maximum two more cuts this year and perhaps only one may happen depending very much on the data as they

are disclosed until the end of the year. >> vitor, let me bring you to your economic assessment because you were just saying the economy is still very weak. what we heard recently from policymakers that they do see a rebound in economic activity. what is your assessment here? >> there was a rebound after five quarters of practically no growth quarter on quarter. the first quarter had a growth rate of 0.3, but year on year, it was just 0.4. that's -- we cannot forget that. then we add some soft data or soft data pmi for april which were more optimistic. i don't trust that too much. i think that the overall growth for the whole year will be under

one. as i said before, 0.7, or something around that can be expected contrasting with the 0.5% of 2023. it is still weak growth that europe is experiencing. i don't see a big jump in growth because i don't see from where it could come. >> mr. constancio, we have this great graph really showing some quotes we had from ecb members as well of late. madame lagarde is confident. indeed, it will continue to be that way for the remainder of this year? >> yes, i trust that. it can be a bit bumpy.

it may be one or two months where there are optics. for instinstance, july, normall an uptick on inflation. it can happen. that will not derail the overall declining path of inflation. >> mr. constancio, thank you very much for the time. thank you for joining us. a real pleasure to have you on cnbc. vitor constancio, former ecb vice president. annette, thank you for joining us for that interview. let's keep moving on to other equity stories. atos has extended the deadline for the takeover bids until next week. it received bids from a czech billionaire and others. the remy cointreau revenue came

in higher after falling 28%. the french cognac maker said it faced challenges in the u.s. market, but progress to the lo long-term targets is on course. one of the most important days of the financial year so far and silvia is on the barclays floor. silvia. >> reporter: arabile, that's right. the ecb has been on hold for nine months, but that could be about to change. we are looking at the market implications from the rate decision today. up next, we will speak to francesco ceccato from barclays u europe. stay tuned to that interview right after this break. the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul

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welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede and these are your headlines. the ecb poised to cut borrowing costs for the first time in years marking the end of the tightening cycle. vitor constancio says a cut is

all by certain. >> after all of the statements from the governing council and if it did not happen, it would provoke backlash in markets and a bit arming the reputation of the ecb. european equities follow wall street higher driven up by tech stocks. nvidia's market cap crossing the $3 trillion mark overtaking apple as the most valuable public company as asml rallies in europe. and d-day 80 years on as war once again casts a shadow over the coulntinent. countdown to the cut, possibly, from the ecb.

before we head to that then, where is the market looking? we see it higher out of germany more than 1% to the good. a .50% for the cac 40. the markets then are looking toward the tech counters following on from nvidia's push higher yesterday. you see more positivity for the tech counters. asml is moving higher as the chip demand story is positive. the chip demand story is higher in asia with tsmc is moving higher on the back of the all that news. that is all really meant that tech counters are the ones to look out for in this market play whether it is stateside or this side. the ftse 100 is up .25% to the good. on the fx, the yen strengthening to 155 as well. now it has eased off a bit.

dollar strength peaking when it comes to the currency. euro-dollar is unmoved for now as we head to the ecb decision. european yields have come off a lot of late. we have been looking at these and where they would go. the benchmark out of europe, the 10-year bund is 2.52. still trying to reflect that cut in interest rates anticipated for today, but what about the future runway of these cuts? whatever the ecb does today, it is sure to have an outsized impact on the markets. silvia is joining us live from the barclays trading floor in london. could the moves be drastic depending on the future of the rate path, silvia? >> reporter: there is still a lot to expect later on today and this will have different impacts

across the asset classes. let's discuss what we expect from the market perspective with the next guest. francesco ceccato from barclays europe. first and foremost, my question is the inflation dynamics. they have come down significantly from the peak levels, but the latest significants showing an increase. how concerned are you that this is not going to be a lineal path to bring down inflation? >> thank you, silvia. good to be with you and arabile. i think the reality is that inflation has, indeed, come off the peak of 10.6% in october of 2022. clearly, it was never going to be a monotonic decline. we should never expect a lineal progression here in terms of the response from the policymakers.

we have seen a lot of consensus building for this rate cut and that is, trherefore, what we ar expecting as well. we are expecting there to be three cuts this year followed by three more cuts in 2025 to reach a deposit rate of 2.5% and that is consistent with seeing a path of dispinflation that carries o from here. you are absolutely right, it did cause a little bit of a reaction to see the inflation rates come in slightly higher than expected. i think we have to remember where we've come from. we've come from 10.6% and we're now at 2.6% or 2.9%. so, we are sticking to a

prediction of the cut today and for further cuts to come. >> reporter: right. i want to take a global perspective here now because, obviously, we are hearing from the ecb today, but we have to put that into context against what the fed is doing and other central banks are doing. markets are concerned about this potential rate differ rential w will see with the ecb and the fed and how big that gap might get. how much of a concern is this and could there beadditional risk here that the ecb would have to pause this rate cutting cycle if it starts importing a lot of inflation into the bloc? >> i think we reviewed that question and i think, clearly, the transmission mechanic any mechanism you are talking about is the exchange rate. i think there is a certain

amount of diffivergence just bye ecb going sooner. you might add that canada did cut its rates last night by 25 basis points and is also looking at a divergence dynamic. i think within the europe area, outside of the euro, we have seen cuts already in czech and hungary and sweden. i think that clearly this cut is coming here to be consistent with the overall trajectory of the european economy. i think it's going to create a certain divergence, i say, in terms of the strict synchrony vis-a-vis the u.s. the type of differential we're talking about has been observed over the last 25 years. the peak gap we're seeing is unlikely in our view to have a

significant effect on the inflation dynamic. >> good morning to you. does that mean if you were to see a cut, then of throughout the year, would it be three cuts or four cuts, is that figure still 3.5% or 3.25% less? is that still restrictive enough? >> i think, clearly, it's still a far cry from where it was. it's still a very materially positive interest rate. i think what we've seen is that manufacturing, which is an interest rate sensitive sector, is just starting to revive in terms of the pmis. i think clearly the restriction that we're seeing is also showing up in very stagnant loan demand. as a result, we think that the stimulus is coming at the right

time. >> it coming at the right time also means you could have inflation rear up again. how much of a fear would that be with europe, perhaps, creating its own inflation impact or would rates be too high for that to happen again, you think? >> i think the biggest risk to the inflationary environment is another shock. clearly, what we saw triggering the last wave of inflation was the conflict in ukraine and impact that had to energy supply and that was clearly something that was not controlled from within the european economy and i think that's probably more where i would be looking to be watchful as opposed to anything today. >> very interesting conversation. i think it really is more about the future than it is just about

this rate cut on its own. francesco, thank you for joining us. francesco ceccato, from barclays europe. silvia also joining us as well from barclays trading floor in london. let's change gears. today marks 80 years, 8-0, since the d-day landing of 1964. the soldiers descended upon the beaches of normandy. jay gray joins us from normandy. jay, it's really a day to commemorate the d-day landings and significance thereof. >> reporter: i think you are absolutely right. i think it is important to point

out here the survivors of this invasion and invasion that changed the course of world history and the beginning of the end of world war ii. there are not many left. these times are precious. these times we get to hear from and see these men who made such an incredible sacrifice and had such tremendous courage during that invasion. dignitaries and leaders from around the world are gathering here today and several people part of the ceremony. clearly, it is the heroes that they come to honor here who are the most important visitors on this day. the men who stormed the beaches, the fighter pilots, those on board the ships just off the shoreline. the veterans who returned and those marked by the headstones you see behind us here. more than 9,000 headstones. those that never had the chance

to leave this battlefield which is now a grave site and memorial. we had the honor ato spend time here with men this week. and something they said pointing out as they stare at the headstones. most of the then were 17, 18 or 19 years old and never had a chance to have a family. because of them, i had a chance to have a family. i got to live this long and incredible life. again, he was just filled with such emotion for the sacrifice these men made. a sacrifice, clearly, that is honored here today. it's a very special day. the 80th anniversary of d-day. >> jay, i appreciate your coverage today.

jay gray from nbc news. now the ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy met with qatar's ruler in doha on wednesday. he has been critical in the exchange. zelenskyy thanked the sheik for supporting his quote sovereign and integral integrity. and coming up, the central bank could cut rates and suggests that the fed could follow soon. we'll be right back. frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level.

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- the first step on our new journey. you coming? reach out to a friend about their mental health. seize the awkward. it's totally worth it. welcome back. now prime minister rishi sunak has nominated jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon for the uk honors according to the financial times who said the level of any honor, if any, is unclear. the british foreign office,

which is responsible for honors for non-uk citizens declined to comment. euro expectations have fallen and flat lined and consumer inflation coming in at 2.9% neckxt may. that is higher than 2.7% in the month of april. the bank of canada cut the key policy rate 25 basis points to 4.75% on wednesday. it was expected and they said more easing is likely if inflation continues to ease. here's one that goes against the grain a little bit. the serce services sector recovo

a nine-month high of 53.8 after a contraction in april and ahead of expectations. rising new orders contributed to the higher number driven by export order strength. here is one that shifted the markets thinking rate cuts could be possible. u.s. private job creation slowed in may with companies adding 152,000 jobs. down one fifth on the month and shy of expectations. according to payroll processor adp, nearly all of the hiring came in the services sector with a net 3,000 to the total. adp's chief economist told cnbc the numbers show pockets of weakness. >> plus up 150,000 or so jobs in most economies is a great number. there is weakness under that hood.

there is weakness coming from traditionally white collar jobs from professional business services with a loss. we also saw losses and weakness tied to producers to manufacturing and consumers with leisure. the federal reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate twice this year with the first cut to come in september according to the majority of the economists in the reuters poll. it found a significant risk of only one cut or even none. we are watching the ecb this morning as we countdown to what is expected to be the central bank's first rate cut since 2019. let's have a chat with the global chief economist at jpmorgan chase. nora, thank you for your time. i don't know how much of the sentiment you have seen or heard already, but there is still the worry that maybe the wage growth story is still high. service inflation is still too high.

is the ecb jumping the gun if they are to, of course, cut as telegraphed? >> i think that cut has been telegraphed. i would be shocked if they didn't cut today. are they jumping the gun? i think dialing back a little bit on the restrictiveness probably makes sense. i kind of sympathize with that. europe has had a long spell of growth. the consumer is struggling to find its feet here. it is eekingi out gains in the first quarter. i think delivering the first cut, i can understand that. when we look at the scycle overall, i don't see it. services inflation is sticky at this point. it is running close to 5% annualized rate. i think there is a sense that

the post-pandemic supply shock has faded, but we still have persistence in wage and services inflation. with that in mind, i think back-to-back rate cuts are probably unlikely at this point. >> then you have to move in a cycle, so to speak. the belief here and we had quotes on the board that madame legarde says inflation is under control for the most part. that is what she is pointing out there. yet, you have the aspects coming to the floor. if inflation remains sticky for the reminder of the year, what would 25 basis cuts, what would that have done? >> i think it's more about just significantaling the direction policy and changing and shifting.

they are dyingialing back on th shift. they are acknowledging there is significant progress with inflation coming off the peak. at this point, maybe pulling back on the restrictiveness is appropriate. is inflation under control? yes, it has come down, but the question in my mind is are we headed back to the 2% target? >> sure. >> most major central banks, fed, ecb, bank of england, they are telling us they ses inflation getting back to 2% by the end of next year. in terms of what we see right now, we are not entirely confident that we're on track to get down the 2% for the euro area which we revised off. we see it close to below 3% through the rest of the year. that is stickiness in the near term and that will linger. i think the ecb is also banking on a significant pickup in productivity growth and

moderation in wage growth to bring unit labor costs down over time. that is aspirational. we are not seeing signs of that coming through yet. >> credibility becomes very important here. just to do one cut and i'm not saying that is going to happen. things could move lower. we heard earlier on from the former vice president of the ecb vitor constancio sees bumpiness along the road, but it is headed in the downward trajectory move. if it remains sticky and you only do one cut this year, the credibility of the ecb becomes at risk, don't you think? >> i think they cut once and labor and inflation pause, i don't think that would undermine credibility. what would undermine is if they cut in the face of sticky inflation. i think delivering the first cut and pausing while it is not really a strategy that, perhaps,

makes a lot of sense to us, but i can kind of see that being consistent with them maintaining credibility. >> do you think 3.5% is enough to get down to 2%? there seems to be no revision of the 2% figure. that is still the target >> it is still restrictive territory. i think the issue is the monetary policy drags are already starting to fade here. what we see is overall financial conditions which have eased somewhat. again, i think at this point, it is a question of finding that right balance between dialing back on the restrictiveness, but keeping rates in the restrictive territory. >> 30 seconds. have the full impact of the rate hikes come into effect, you think? >> i think most of them have . in terms of the impulse on growth, we have yet to see.

i think we have yet to see the house colsts. it takes a while for those rate hikes to pass through to the consumer. in terms of the initial impasse on growth, the bulk of that is in the data at this point. >> it will be an interesting meeting. one we will follow for you. nora, i appreciate the time. the global economist at jpmorgan chase. while we have data to look forward to stateside, we have that ecb meeting for you here. if you can't tune in on tv, keep up to date with the live blog at cnbc.com. don't miss our special programming this afternoon in what could be the most consequential ecb meeting in years. that is right here at 2:00 p.m.

central european time. we do have the jobs numbers. we have adp private payroll from the united states. we do also, tomorrow, have the jobs data. unemployment numbers. that could be a key significant factor to whether the united states or the fed ultimately look to cut rates. another important piece of data following that pce number. there's your markets out of europe. .80% higher for the dax. higher for asml moving into the number two spot out of europe following the nvidia's surge higher. will the tech stock rally continue? we'll see. it could be flat across state side. i'm arabile gumede. "w" r dastreet signsfotoy. orldwide exchange" is next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. i'm frank holland and here is your "five@5." nvidia tops $3 trillion becoming the second most valuable publicly traded u.s. company. now standing $100 billion away overtaking microsoft to become number one. the video stock surge in the private payroll reports lifting the broader markets with the s&p and nasdaq hitting all-time highs. european central bank front and center this morning expecting the rate cutting. we are live with the