when you see nvidia at $120 a share, not $1,200 on monday -- >> it's going to feel so different. >> don't feel bad. you haven't lost money. you're okay. >> don't worry. boring kitty didn't get to it. >> boring kitty didn't get to that one. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. glad you could join us. >> "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ all right, guys, thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner, live from post nine here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with the markets and why big-time bull tom lee says he was buying stocks today no matter what the jobs report said. he's with me momentarily to explain. we will show you the scorecard now with 60 minutes to go in regulation. major averages have been a bit volatile today with investors deciding whether the better-than-expected jobs print was a bit too hot to handle, especially for a market still pricing in a rate cut later this year. however, 5,354 is a good number to watch. why? because that is the closing high. we were above that a few moments

ago. we'll track it over the final stretch to see if we can go to the weekend with a new high for stocks. yields are higher too on the news of the jobs report. that's had a bit of an impact as you might imagine on equities. 4.42% on the ten-year. the big single stock story of the day, you might have heard about it, is gamestop, and that's given the live stream from the so-called roaring kitty trader. shares down sharply this hour. take a look. more than 40%. it does take us to our talk of the tape. the fate of the rally with stocks once again reaching new highs this week. k can the momentum continue? let's ask tom lee, fund strat's head of research and managing partner. good to see you, welcome back. >> good to see you, scott. >> that was the news of the day this morning. we're buyers of stocks on friday, but even stronger if the jobs report is soft, the implication being you're buying no matter what. why did you come in to today thinking you were buying stocks regardless?

>> well, there's a couple reasons, scott. the first is that i think markets are much more focused on inflation reports and cpis next week and the june fomc meeting on wednesday, and the second, which, of course, we think is going to just show a continued improvement in inflation. but the second is that stocks really, historically, have done well in the week following the release of the employment report, rising roughly 70% of the time, and it implies roughly 50 to -- sorry, 70 to 80 points in the s&p. of course, it would be better if it was a soft jobs report, and it wasn't. >> it's funny you say that. it would be better if it was a soft jobs report, because i think the market spent a good amount of today trying to decide what it was. was it good news? is good news is bad news? if the market doesn't necessarily need rate cuts, why is a softer report better? why can't we just be happy with good news? labor market's strong, economy's hanging in, don't need rate cuts, and still may get them later this year.

>> i mean, i'd generally agree with you, scott, but as you know, there's a faction of both market participants and the fomc that view some of this data as too hot for them to be comfortable with, and i think, you know, the more positive data points you get, the more you might actually start to see markets price in a hike. so, i think you're right. there's a goldilocks window, and -- but it's safer to say bad news is good news because those actually clearly take away inflationary pressures. >> i'm wondering if you think, in any way, that thinking that june is going to be the point of the year in which we start to get this money off the sidelines and into the market and how goldman-sachs framed it the other day, talking about a "wall of money" coming in. but not really until july. you could have some selling between now and then, but at the beginning of the third quarter, and thus the second half of the year, is the area to really plan for a wall of money coming into this market, and then pushing stocks that next leg higher.

>> scott, that dynamic is certainly at play for a couple reasons. one, you know, april was a down month, and i think a lot of institutional investors actually sat out may, thinking it was -- april was the start of a bigger correction, so june is when money starts coming back in. but i think more importantly, since the end of 2022, i think a lot of institutions and a lot of high net worth individuals sort of sat out this market, saying, i'm happy earning 5%. by the middle of this year, if the s&p is up 15%, on top of missing 30% last year, i think a lot of folks are going to say, listen, i can't just sit on cash and earn 5% anymore when i'm missing out potentially on a 25% year for the s&p. >> tom, what'd you make of the fact a couple times this week we had rates go down and stocks go down? not exactly the dynamic that many had been expecting, right? that's not the way that stocks and rates had been -- have been reacting. they've been pretty well correlated. rates down, stocks up. well, there are a couple of

occasions this week where that didn't work. why? >> it's kind of hard to tell, especially day-to-day, but if i had to guess, you know, we don't want to be in a situation where the economy is slowing so much that we've actually hit stall speed, so rates would go down. that type of economic dynamic would scare stocks, so it's almost like bad news is too much bad news. in fact, maybe that's why today's jobs report kind of fits right in the middle because it's actually good enough to tell us the economy's still strong, as you said, but it's not enough to actually add to inflationary pressures. >> tom, what if, you know, this market is just screaming out it's nvidia's world and we're just living in it? if nvidia's up, markets are good. nvidia's not doing much, s&p can't do that much. nasdaq's negative today. it's a one-stock story. >> i mean, nvidia is really a generational story for now,

because i mean, how many $3 trillion companies actually have doubled? so, clearly, nvidia is important, but it's important because it's really one of the most important ways to get exposure to a.i., and i think the a.i. story is early innings, as many people talk about. it's transformational in terms of productivity, and there's a lot of use cases developing. so, as much as it might feel like a one-stock market, as you know, there's a lot of stocks up more than 20% year to date, ani actually think breadth is likely to increase. for investors, there's a lot of opportunities in the second half. >> that's the one question, whether this broadening rally that we had enjoyed has suddenly become too narrow once again, and it's all focused on the megacaps, whether it's -- if it's not nvidia today, it's apple on the run. you're still comfortable suggesting that people buy those stocks, even at these levels? >> yes, because the -- these companies aren't at valuations

that are really what we call demanding. i mean, the cost of debt for the mag seven or the f.a.n.g.s is lower than many governments. they're still growing earnings at 20% and top line 10%. i don't see why investors shouldn't be paying much, much higher multiples for these stocks, and now when we look at the rest of the s&p, you're paying a median pe of around 16 times with yields falling, so i think the whole market actually has multiple expansion potential. >> the other point you make today is that you want to stick with what's working, and that obviously plays off the nvidia story. but also, you suggest financials and industrials are a place to be. now, they may have been working, but i'm not necessarily sure over the last month they've given a lot of enthusiasm to investors that they're going to continue to work. why do you think they will?

>> well, both stocks are responsive to a healthier economic outlook, so you're right, i think in the past month, they've done poorly, and i think part of it is because there has been some doubt about sort of the robustness of this expansion in labor markets, but the pmis look like they're turning. new orders could be bottoming. historically, that's very good for industrials, and the case for financials really depends on the fed maintaining a dovish bias, which is what we expect, and i think that's going to come out in next week's meeting, and that's a tail wind for financials. >> i want you to stick with me, because i'm going to come back to you, but i do want to talk about what's going on with gamestop here, tom. it's down 40%, and that is following roaring kitty's livestream earlier today. kristina partsinevelos has been following that, and she is here with more. what are we seeing? >> the shares are facing their worst session in three years, and first, you had the surprise earnings release this morning, sales down 29% year over year.

the report was worse than expected. then you had the announcement that the company plans to sell up to 75 million shares, and then lastly, like you mentioned, the youtube stream by keith gill, the meme leader, gamestop investor known as roaring kitty. shares were halted 17 times on that volatility with over 4 times its 30-day average trading volume. so, a lot of movement. in the youtube stream, there was no major gamestop revelations from keith gill, who didn't actually wearhis red or infamous red bandanna, but he did speak to his belief in the fundamentals of gamestop and the ability of ceo ryan cohen to turn things around. listen in. >> that's what folks are -- should be focussed on, you know what i mean? and that's probably going to be an ongoing debate as to people feel about him, whether he can successfully transform that business. >> but short seller andrew left, scott, i know you talked about, spoke to him earlier in "halftime report," actually disagrees and is still undaunted by his short-selling loss last

time. listen to his position. >> fundamentals don't match up to the stock price, and i think the dynamic is different this time than it was back in 2021. so, you know, it was a decent trade. small position. >> andrew left's position might be small, keith gill, though, did share his portfolio positions, 5 million common shares at 120,000 call options with a strike price of 20 bucks expiring in two weeks. so he's talking about the fundamentals and yet his call options expire in two weeks which means he's in the money given where the share price is, above 30 bucks right now, but he was very quick to remind viewers not to follow anything he does. "it's not investment advice." he said that several times throughout the stream. >> right. they're not heeding that advice. let's just say that. kristina, thank you. i appreciate that. let's bring in cameron dawson with new edge wealth, and tom lee is still with us. cam, you're a student of markets. i know you.

you study the history of markets, right? what does this scream out to you as if anything? >> on gamestop, the meme trade, i think it reflects liquidity and risk sentiment, which is that this kind of trading wouldn't be happening in a year like 2022 when people are scared. it reflects the fact that there's a ton of liquidity sloshing around, and people still have risk appetite, which means they're optimistic about the future. you can see that in retail allocations. aaia surveys are only about 2% off their all-time high or recent high, which suggests that people are invested and looking for ways to choose returns. you can see it in options activity and other speculative tech. crypto as well. i think it's all reflections of a similar trade. >> tom lee, i have had some suggest this is fine and totally normal. it's just that the purists, so to speak, the old-school folks who have been around the street a long time, just don't know how to take this kind of activity. i have had others suggest this

whole thing is making a mockery of the markets. how would you assess this? >> you know, if gamestop was a top ten weight in the s&p, or in the russell 3000, i would be concerned. but as you know, gamestop is not a huge market cap stock, and i think that there has been plenty of stocks over my more than 30 years of covering stocks that have become cult in their following or valuations have become larger than what would be explained by underlying earnings power, but to me, it's not a big enough stock to tell me that this is a market froth in general. >> but is that the right place to look? i just wonder, cameron, if it's a big enough batch of hype in and of itself that here we are talking about a livestream on youtube today, and we just showed you the clip, you know, some are going to look at that and have a hard time keeping a

straight face. it might not be the stock nor the market cap nor the valuation that screams out what's going on, but the mere fact that we're spending a lot of time talking about a smaller stock because it's sloshing around in this market in such dramatic ways. >> look, it's good for business that people care about the market, and clearly, it's reflective of the fact that you have seen people really led back into this market when we look at all -- allocations. i think this meme rally is different than what we saw at '21. it's not nearly as broad. it hasn't metastasized in other areas. ark is sitting out. recent ipos are sitting out. it seems a lot more narrow than it was, which means maybe it's a passing fad. >> unless you think it's a bifurcated mania, that some of it's towards gamestop, and some of it's towards nvidia. >> you could also make the argument, given option activity in overall semiconductors, that there is some mania in

expectation for really powerful growth to the upside, which if we look at nvidia, the valuation isn't nearly as much stretched. you do have the stock up significantly year to date, but so are earnings estimates. i think the real challenge when we look at a lot of the names that have moved a lot is if they keep going up but fundamentals drift in the other direction. that's when you get scared. that's what happened in the late '90s and early 2000s when fundamentals diverged from price. >> another stock that's been on the move alongside nvidia in some respects is apple because it's come roaring back. the worldwide developers conference kicking off on monday, as you know. steve kovach is here. it's fair to say -- good to see you -- this really is a moment of truth. >> oh, i have no problem saying this, scott. this is going to be apple's most important software announcement since it launched the app store 16 years ago. that's because apple is the only one of its peers in big tech that doesn't really have a real a.i. story to tell yet. all going to change on monday,

of course. by now, we've heard the reports and rumors, a partnership with openai to put chatgpt technology into the iphone. also long overdue improvements to the siri assistant and advanced voice controls for apple's apps. i think that last one is super important, because if it ends up happening, it's going to be a hint at how apple views -- how we'll interact with the iphone via artificial intelligence. you can kind of imagine it opening up developers so they can tap into apple's a.i. system, and that brings us closer, of course, to that dream of an agent, a truly intelligent assistant, that understands natural languages and can take care or things for you. we've seen a number of apple's peers try to show their vision for that in recent weeks, but none of this is going to matter if it doesn't boost apple's main businesses, iphone and services. then again, might not matter. we were talking about this earlier. major upgrade cycle could just be happening anyway. people have old phones, ready to upgrade this fall.

>> it's hard to imagine, i guess, that if we're having an event in june, and then you think a new phone is coming in september, why you would take the plunge now and not wait, which leads to my other point. given the weakness in iphone over the last many quarters, which is still half the business -- >> more than half. >> we may not actually get any answers for months, which hasn't really been the case with other a.i. players. you make an announcement, you get the benefit of the doubt, stock is off to the races. hello, nvidia. >> and you just have to say a.i. a couple times in your earnings call, but that's kind of going away if you think about look what happened to salesforce. look what happened to a number of other software names. you do kind of have to prove there's a monetization strategy behind your artificial intelligence. for apple, that's pushing phones. it's pushing services. so, i am curious. bloomberg did report that the openai bit of this announcement, that partnership, is going to be opt-in. that made me think, is it going to be paid? now, ownepenai charges 20 bucks

month right now. does that mean apple offers something similar? to be determined. but that's another interesting thing to watch. also the developer tools. keep in mind, adding new features for developers gets them more active in the app store, which gets them selling more apps. the app store has been having a resurgence after falling after the pandemic. so, there's massive growth opportunity still to be unlocked within the app store. a.i. could be part of that. >> the phones are already -- they're not cheap to buy. the a.s.p. has been going up. >> they just raised the prices. i wouldn't be surprised if they do it again. >> because they would somehow, you would think, you know, either charge a subscription or if it's integrated into the phones, the cost is going to getoget offset somewhere, wouldn't it? >> that's the other thing i'm looking for in the fall is what unique artificial intelligence feature does that next model of the iphone have, the other iphones that all three of us

have won't be able to tap into that will make people say, i need to buy the new one because it's going to let me do this amazing a.i. thing that my current iphone 10, 11, or 12 can't do. >> unless you get the software upgrade as routinely comes with that. cameron, tony pascarella of goldman-sachs, "i would not be looking to stand in the way of this freight train, one that is fundamentally rooted in totally superior earnings growth." is that enough reason to keep buying these stocks? >> i think it is at least through the third quarter of 2024, and the real test will come in 2025 when the second derivative or the pace of change in that earnings growth really starts to slow. you have earnings growth at the pace of things like 120% for nvidia this year. that's set to go to 50% next year. amazon goes from 80% down to 30%. you'll have a test to see if that's enough in 2025. those are still great numbers. but they are significantly slower than what we got in '23 and '24, so for now, it's still good. a lot of the valuations aren't

quite as stretched, but a name like apple, i think, is important to watch. its earnings estimates have gone nowhere this year. they have been flat. it's all been valuation multiple expansion and contraction that are driving the volatility in the stock. we think for apple to work, you really have to see earnings start to inflect higher. >> i'm wondering, steve, how high the bar is. you have a week in which there was a major newspaper writing an article suggesting that apple missed the boat. that they were so late to the a.i. game. does that mean is bar is high, or is the bar low? they just have to do something that sounds great? >> it has to sound great. >> and they'll get credit for it in the market and the proof will be in the pudding in the new upgrade cycle when they have a new phone. >> i read all the same analyst notes that you do, and they are hungry for a reason to say, this is the catalyst moment, so it almost doesn't matter what they announce. at the same time, tim cook himself has set the bar pretty high, saying we're going to show something new and novel that we've never seen before in artificial intelligence. his quote, i keep quoting him on

this, "we're going to break new ground in artificial intelligence." to me, that means something brand-new. that means something we haven't seen before from openai and the others. whether or not he lives up to that bar he set for himself is another story. >> tom, you know, in the thought about whether we should keep buying these stocks, because we think they're going to go higher, i mentioned the pascarello note from goldilocks. wells fargo has an interesting note out today, which talks about microsoft, nvidia, and apple. of course, the three $3 trillion market cap companies now accounting for 20% of the s&p 500, which to them suggests the performance of large cap portfolio managers benchmarked to the s&p will be driven to an even greater extent by their relative positioning in these three names. what do you make of that? >> mechanically, he's correct. there is a 525 rule that restrict portfolio managers from having more than 25% of their holdings in five stocks. so, then, they're forced to make

essentially suboptimal asset allocation decisions away from the mag seven. it does make -- create an advantage for fund managers that aren't constrained that way, whether it's levered funds like the 133 or hedge funds, but it also is, in my mind, an argument for market breadth to increase, because these funds, which will be 100% invested, have to find other stocks to sort of for alpha, and i think that means the rest of the s&p can participate. >> the flow show of bank of america today, cameron, says they got the largest tech inflow in nine weeks. so, you know, the parade continues into these names. >> and tech has been the only sector that has had massive inflows over the last 12 months or so, and on the concentration question, it seems to be that it's only a problem until it is a problem, which means that's like deficit spending or, like, eating too much ice cream. it's only a problem once you get to the point -- >> you never notice until it's too late. >> but if you look at history,

you can see there are times where you got to peak concentration, nifty 50 in the late '60s. in the 2000s, in the tech bubble. and of course, that caused major leadership rotations, where you had big weakness within those growth concentrated names but big strength in value and cyclicals. we think it's way too early to make that call, but when it happens, you can see some big, huge tectonic shifts. >> that was fun. cameron, thanks for being here. tom lee, thanks to you as well, and steve kovach, i look forward to seeing you in cupertino. do not miss our coverage of wwdc. you can tune in to "halftime report" and "closing bell" on monday. we'll be there. mr. covkovach will be there. this is going to be a big deal. um next, the schwab playbook senior investment strategist kevin gordon is back. find out why he says it's time to take profits in some of those high flyers. he joins us next.

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welcome back. the s&p 500 trying for yet another record closing high today, and that's after erasing earlier losses following the jobs report. let's bring in kevin gordon, senior investment strategist at charles schwab. welcome back. good to see you. i want to go where we teased you at. take some profits in the high flyers. why? why not ride them? >> it doesn't make sense for every single investor. we have more than 30 million investors. >> i know, but that's the advice you're giving. >> i was thinking back to when we wrote our outlook for this year, six months ago, maybe seven months ago, and kind of this whole notion that we've had for a theme that we have had for

the past couple years which is rebalancing less based on the calendar and more on the volatility basis. it's not just back up the truck, dump everything that's been a high flyer. it's just kind of, don't be afraid to take some profits when you have these outsize gains, whether it's in a single game -- obviously, the focus is on f nvidia this week. >> aren't you zeroing in on things like that when you make a call like this? >> it's interesting because if you look at the contribution to the gains so far, not just year to date, but maybe take it over the past four to five weeks, if you did take out nvidia from the s&p, you wouldn't be back at an all-time high. you'd be trending a bit lower. but zooming out a little bit, broadening the picture, the rolling 30-day or 60-day correlation between changes in nvidia and changes in the s&p 500 has come down from 0.9 earlier this year to 0.3 or 0.4. it's good because you can still see gains in a name like that or a sector like tech, but you

don't have to rely on it as much or see a gain there to have a gain in the rest of the market, which i think is a constructive thing. >> when you work for a firm like schwab, which has such a dramatically large retail cohort using your business. >> yeah. >> and you see things like gamestop and nvidia, what do you think? >> you know, i think that -- >> what are you guys telling people? >> going back to your discussion with cameron and tom about risk appetite and how sometimes you can see risk appetites really come back, even in a time, you know, you compare it back to the meme craze in 2020, 2021, we were in a totally different economic situation. we were in a totally different rate structure, rate situation. and i think that, you know, it probably speaks to maybe something that shifted a couple of years ago where there's been this kind of cult of equity that has come in and maybe had some staying power. but i think that the point that cameron was making in particular about this being much narrower in focus, it hasn't really spread to the ipo world or

hasn't spread to the spac world. both of those areas of the market really haven't come back to life as much. so, it's kind of a whack-a-mole situation where you have individual names that have these moves every now and then, but i think it speaks to the broader environment and risk appetite situation for some investors still willing to lean in. >> it's pretty remarkable when you hear somebody from interactive brokers, for example, on our network, saying, it's the second biggest stock in terms of trading activity for us behind nvidia. >> yeah. >> that says everything, though, when these two stocks are dominating the action and the narrative and everybody's attention. >> yeah, and i will say, you know, i've been over the past six months fortunate to have traveled the country, visiting different clients and speaking and listening to them, and i think what's been consistent -- and we often find this, especially in turbulent times, whether it's a lot of volatility to the upside or downside, clients that make it through these periods the best are ones that take an advised approach. if you're not focusing

day-to-day on these swings, and yes, there's going to be exposure to the nvidias or the gamestops of the world, but if you're not getting as caught up in that and if it's not a huge chunk of your portfolio, then we find that clients ride that out better. >> what about just the market in general here as we -- you know, here we are in june. we're almost at the halfway point. what's your outlook? are you optimistic? >> i will say, we're putting together a mid year, it publishes on monday. but generally, the outlook -- and i think what has changed over the past couple of weeks, a little bit for the worse, not detrimental, not fatal, but you have had a steady deterioration in breadth. so far, it's been concentrated more in the percentage of companies that are above their 50-day moving average if you're looking in the s&p, but it hasn't filtered out to the percentage that are in the 200 day. you've got 70% of names in an uptrend. i think that's relatively healthy. as long as you go through that consolidation, go through this rotation as that metric stays relatively healthy, i think that's a good thing, coupled with the fact that, from a

broader macro picture, when you look at where we are with gdp, which is still slightly above trend, and then inflation, which is still a little bit below trend, again, if you're looking at it on a longer term basis, that tends to be the best zone for the equity market, and it's still relatively healthy, even if you down shift with growth slipping a little bit at trend or below trend and inflation still staying below trend. the real difficulty you get to is when inflation or if inflation gets above trend again >> but you are keeping a close eye, it sounds like, on the narrowness or the renarrowing of the market. >> absolutely. and it's been a shorter term phenomenon. it's only happened in the past three to four weeks, so i think that -- i don't want to be so kind of, i guess, early to jump in and say that you're going to have this remarkable breakdown, because so far, you have had a lot of deterioration under the surface this year. i mean, the average max drawdown for a member in the s&p is down 15%. it's down 30% for the russell 2000, negative 36% for the nasdaq. you have had this happen where you have had rolling corrective

or rolling bear market activity. it just hasn't made its way to the index level, mostly thanks to some of the megacaps that have been doing a lot of the work lately. >> good stuff. i appreciate your insight. kevin gordon of schwab. up next, 314's warren pies is changing his tune on the energy space. he's going to tell us exactly why he thinks it could impact the broader market in a big way. that's after the break.

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oil and energy stocks setting up for another weekly loss. it's crude oil's third negative week in a row, by the way, and our next guest says there could be more pain ahead for that trade. speaking to warren pies of 3fourteen research. good to see you, man. week to date, down 3% is the sector. over one month, it's down about 3.66%. is that trade in trouble? >> yeah, i would say it is. you know, we came into the year pretty bullish on oil. i think that when you go back to how we came into the year, everybody was basically pessimistic, and our view was that we could get up to 90 bucks a barrel by the end of q1, but we did think that was a soft ceiling, and it was one of those rare times whether the market did exactly what we thought it would do, so we topped at like $92, and we looked around and everybody had piled on to the trade. if you listen to the -- kind of the average generalist that comes on your show, energy

becomes a very consensus call around the beginning of april. and we saw that in the data, in the futures data, and we saw that in the expectations for the opec meeting. everybody expected opec to continue supporting the market, and our view is that any wobble in this opec supply cut that they came -- they did two of them last year -- any wobble was going to be really negative for crude oil, and that's what we saw. the cartel came back and said, we're going to add oil starting in october of this year, 200,000 barrels a day. they increased baseline production for some of the other countries, uae, russia, nigeria, and the market has basically puked out on that, and i think there's going to be persistent weakness for the rest of the year, probably. i think we've seen ucrude oil fr this year. >> there's not like the most direct correlation, necessarily, between what crude is doing as a commodity and what energy stocks are doing as individual names, right? look at crude at $75, there are

probably a lot of energy companies within the markets here that are printing money at $75. >> yeah, no, i mean, and you also have to look at, there's a huge component of the energy sector, if you were just talking about the xle or whatever, that's refiners. so, that's -- they're playing a spread game anyway, so it doesn't make a lot of sense to buy, like, a marathon petroleum or something like that just based on your crude oil outlook. you have to have an outlook on the refining margins. i also like energy within a balanced equity portfolio as some kind of hedge because you never know what's going to happen. i could be wrong. geopolitical things could happen that could cause oil to spike. energy does things in your portfolio that nothing else does. if you're asking me on a stand-alone basis, anything with a real strong oil beta is going to suffer on a stand-alone basis going forward, at least until we get a lot of pessimism back into this market, get everybody back on the other side of the -- on the bearish side of the vote. >> i see here that your base case is a broadening out of stocks.

why so? >> okay, so, i think that your last guest, and you had a good conversation about this, and honestly, it's really the most important factor in the broad market right now. so, the base case -- we have had a really strange breadth diversion. we have had a few of these. last year, we had one in may, one in november, and now we're getting one again, and the reason you have to give, i think, the benefit of the doubt to the trend that's in place, which has been these megacaps run and the rest of the market catches up. we saw that last year a couple times, and that's the set-up right now, but i think it's important to recognize that when these things happen -- so, specifically, when you see the s&p 500 make a new high, if the equal weighted s&p 500 doesn't confirm within 90 days, that's a very bad thing for the market. and so far, that's where we're at. we had the s&p 500 make a new high on may 15th and still equal weight s&p is like 3% off its highs that i made at the end of

march, and so the clock is ticking. you have basically until august 15th, based on our analysis, for the rest of the market to broaden out. that brings is fed into play next week. i think that's going to be a huge, huge issue and something that's going to really decide whether this market broadens or falls apart because of weak breadth. >> we'll mark our calendars. one issue, obviously, for the broadening is like we experienced this week. we're talking about things like growth scares, right? rates go down. used to be good for stocks. well, not this week, necessarily, because that brought growth scare into focus. that hurt the broadening of the market, those cyclical sectors obviously get hit in that scenario. >> yeah, i mean, it's a -- i think the market's trying to decide what it wants here. i think really wants the soft landing to stick, which is, like, job growth but not too much job growth and decelerating inflation. you know, i think if you step back as an equity investor, and

this i like, i like to work from first principles and just look at -- like keep it really simple. i think you want the economy to grow, and so ultimately, that's the better potential outcome for the market. if the economy is growing and the fed has basically said they want to loosen policy, you're in a pretty good position as an equity investor, and i think that's got to guide us, even if we see scary things like breadth and other, you know, i think, some of the things that have happened with nvidia, the day it reported earnings and it was up and the rest of the market was down, that was strange and unprecedented, but ultimately, growth in tech, fed will loosen, you have to give -- you have to have a bullish bias in that scenario. >> we'll leave it there. warren, i appreciate your time. thanks. have a good weekend. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers into the close. kristina partsinevelos is standing by with that. tell us what you see. >> we have the approval power of the food and drug administration on full display today with two different pharmaceutical stocks. i'll have those names right after this short break.

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15 from the bell. back to kristina now for the stocks that she is watching. what do you see? >> well, investors are showing confidence right now in eli lilly ahead of its meeting with fda officials on monday. recent trial data for eli lilly's experimental alzheimer's drug revealed no major red

flags. this, just yesterday, but it did raise concerns about the safety of the treatment. analysts at jeffries and guggenheim all believe the drug will be approved as shares are up 1.5%. while eli lilly awaits fda approval, biopharmaceutical firm geron did get the stamp of approval for its blood disorder treatment. analysts were expecting the approval. they just weren't expecting it today, hence the stock pop, and i should say, up almost 17%. >> all right, i appreciate that, kristina partsinevelos. good weekend to you. still ahead, shares of walmart, there they are, down 2% today. the company's ceo, doug mcmillon, speaking at its annual meeting just a few moments ago. we've got the highlights, and we're going to break down what is weighing on that stock specifically. the bell, right back.

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first one's free. >> announcer: the market zone is sponsored by e-trade for morgan stanley. trade commission-free today with no account minimums. we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. cnbc's mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. melissa with the headlines from walmart's associates meeting. seema mody with some details. >> mixed job report, mixed market reaction. this market is sort of this machine for absorbing these one-off factors and essentially kind of synthesizing them into, you know, kind of a calm index performance. we're holding most of our gains. i find a couple of things interesting. one is, you know, you have a little bit of a headwind with nvidia. the fever having broken yesterday, a little bit less volume. we're going to wait for the split to become effective. and you did have at least a

modest response from industrials today on the lower yields and decent jobs number. it felt as if, as i said yesterday, the market was wanting the jobs report to give them permission to celebrate lower yields, and we only got kind of half permission to do that. here we sit, apple at the very high of a one-year range. this stock peaked twice in the last year at $196 or $197, perfect going into next week's event, to see if that could be the next preoccupation of a market that really is trying to get by on pockets of strength offsetting pockets of malaise >> interesting moves in broadcom, for example. i know nvidia sucks the oxygen out of the room, but broadcom, up about 6% on the week. you know, uber's been trading very uneven. lyft has a big day. and now, uber itself is up about 7% on the week too. it's not just an nvidia story or an apple story, but it certainly feels like one. crowdstrike too. >> it only is if you're kind of

aggregating the market. it's not if you're talking about what's up, what's down, and the themes running through this market. it's still uneven, but in a selective way, not in a way that feels like it's responding to stress. >> yeah. meta, up 5.5%. i was mentioning crowdstrike, up 11%. all of these on the week. let's talk about walmart's associates meeting. melissa, what can you tell us? >> scott, the event that brings will walmart's shareholders and employees from across the globe to its hometown in arkansas just wrapped up, and one of the themes is walmart talking about how it's trying to compete. amazon is hot on walmart's heels and even though walmart is big, amazon's on track to surpass walmart with 6% revenue growth year over year versus amazon, which was 12% year over year, and that puts walmart in jeopardy of losing its title as the nation's largest retailer. so, in the past few days, we've heard from ceo doug mcmillon and cfo john david rainey talking about how they're trying to compete on convenience and speed

along with low prices c. the company has delivered 4.4 billion items on a same-day and next-day basis. john david rainey, the cfo, spoke today about how it's one to two years away from being profitable on the e-commerce side, and he says that's getting easier as it has more online orders and denser delivery routes, scott. >> melissa repko, thank you. seema mody, tell us about gold. >> down over 3% at this hour. a combination of that hotter than expected jobs report, plus new data from china's central bank showing a pause in new purchases, falling 18 straight months of buying. rbc capital says, "in our view, this does not mean chinas buying is necessarily over but a pause at this point after a long stretch of purchases, which you are occurring at record high prices, maybe natural." still it's cautious on current

levels, emphasizing the importance of next week's cpi report. remember, gold just hit a record high last month, scott. >> seema, thank you. good weekend to you. seema mody. mike, back to you. monday, it's going to be all about apple. wednesday, all about the fed. we're going to be at apple park on monday. we'll be at gundlach's office at double line for the fed decision, so can't wait for that. couple of good things to be covering. so, let's not forget about the fed. we're going to get an outlook too. that's most important. >> yeah, and it feels as if it makes sense -- i think even before the jobs number were, to say that the dot plot, the outlook for what they think they might be able to do for cuts will probably settle around two as a median, and i think that won't disturb the market's current outlook. you know, powell has said that he's not looking for any particular number, let's say, on wage growth before he gets an all clear. it's strictly about the reported inflation data in aggregate. hasn't really kind of gotten a run of several months. i do think the market is probably okay with, you know, more or less status quo.

we've rolled forward the first rate cut multiple times this year, and we've reduced the number multiple times this year, and it's been okay, because we could lean back on an economy outperforming expectations. is that story changing? i think there were hints of that this week, that the market was at least afraid that growth was faltering a little more than just decelerating. >> june is okay. if not june, it will be july. if not july, then september. but to your point, the further you get along in the year, and the further you keep pushing, then you really find out if the temperature of the market starts to get to an uneasy range where you need to take a little something for it. >> and today's the household labor market survey was something that could give ammunition to somebody who thinks that really things are weaker than expected and the fed's going to be proven late. it's not the crucial thing. i think the bond market, it took back a little bit of that yield decline today, but it's still in a really comfortable zone. talking about 25 record highs in the s&p so far year to date. you've never only had 25.

if you got to 25. so, we'll see if that matters. >> good stuff. you have a good weekend. thought we might get a new closing high on the s&p, but doesn't look like it. it will be about eight, nine points shy of that even as we settle out. good weekend, everybody. see you from apple park on monday. cannot wait. into ot with morgan. ♪ well, a hot jobs report initially sending the market lower but stocks recovered. the s&p 500 hit a record intraday high before drifting back to we'll call it the flat line to close out the week. that's the scorecard on wall street. the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm morgan brennan. jon fortt is off today. wharton's jeremy siegel will join us with his latest thoughts on the market. plus, the call of the day, citi has been forecasting a fed rate cut in july, but just pushed