more stock. a live stream by roaring kitty. i don't know what you'd call it but to rally retail traders. it's monday, june 10th. pretty soon, the days will be getting shorter. >> stop! >> "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box." here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. yes, i was just thinking this is about as good as it gets when you go outside and the birds are chirping and you can feel almost normal because it's not pitch dark when we leave to go to work. >> don't get used to it. >> i know. the 21st is coming and the days will get shorter from there.

the markets have figured it out already. look at the u.s. equity futures at this hour the dow is indicated down 130 points. they are coming to that same realization. s&p futures are down by 13 and after a down day on friday for the markets but it was a winning week overall. for the week, the dow is up by a third of 1%. nasdaq up 2.4% and the best week for the nasdaq since back to april so pretty strong across the board. treasure relationship yields did come down at least early in the week last week. before we got the jobs number. you will see the ten-year has the back up 453. two-year at 487. >> in the meantime, let's talk aboutst the european elections. stocks in europe right now down

across the board. not huge but france is off about 2% right now and italy, the italian ftsemib is down about 1%. we will give you a live report in a bit about the action from brussels later this hour. >> you can read all about it. man. this is noverts way to run. has to do with parliament. the whole thing. you got things happening in italy that were significant, in austria. you got overall eu but then you've got -- >> spain and italy, they maintained kind of their party lines. it was france that was a big shocker. >> italy was already pretty far right. you know, there is a big fear of marine le pen and calling a snap election. normally, that galvanizes people that are worried about where she wants to go and then they say,

okay, we didn't really mean it and then you come back a little. now i don't know what it means -- >> twice as much in the eu -- >> i don't know what it means for france and i don't know -- >> i don't think they care. >> i don't think those guys are in trouble. you don't know. they could be looking down on us. still talking to joe biden off and on. >> macron's move is able to do that because even if his party loses in parliament, it's not going to change his position. he'll still be the president. >> you know who got hit? >> germany. >> nobody is going to net zero any time soon. what about gamestop? like the emperrorkitty.

>> it's like watching a train wreck. >> is he going to say here is why gamestop is fundamentally going to improve? he's got nothing. >> one of those 8 balls? >> he had 8-ball. >> what did that say? >> he basically reiterated what he was saying three years ago. he was back on the same thing. but the first 15 minutes were so insane that i think any kind of, like, semi-sane person watching this thing is saying what is going on here? >> he went in and people said he is going come out a billionaire. as it turns out he lost a quarter of a billion dollars essentially. check out the shares of g gamestop. the stock plunged by 40%. 40% on friday after the company announced that sales dropped significantly in the first quarter. said it was selling more stock. investors weren't impressed by a live stream by keith gill, also

known as roaring kitty he appeared since the for the first time since the stock craze of 2021? he iterated his thesis but offering new reasoning behind his large stake. >> they are in the transformation stage here and what could they transform in to? do you know what i mean? a lot of question marks about that, understandably so. essentially it becomes at this stage of that second part of the analysis the transformation part it becomes a bet on the management. >> gill said he doesn't have any institutional backers and gamestop positions he has shared are his only bet. shares of gamestop were halted multiple times during his stream. like a piped piper thing with a lot of followers. what does this mean for the people that were looking -- it

seems to me now they can say this is going to take care of itself. i think what they are probably saying. >> solo operator. it's like, you know? enough said. if you guys want to -- you individual investors, do what you want to do. >> i think hedge funds and others following this thinking they can sort of -- on top of the retail and everything else. >> which way? >> at this point, i don't know. i think there was a moment, obviously, last week they thought they could serve on top of the way up. >> really? >> clearly. >> even though they are the ones he is trying to squeeze? >> different ones he is trying to squeeze? >> i don't think he is actually trying to squeeze. i'm not sure any of the -- >> he had the 8-ball? something else i read that seemed funny. like bonkers, right? >> sort of. >> yeah. >> all right. on this week's squawk planner,

the fed takes center stage beginning a two-day policy meeting tomorrow. before the now. on wednesday, we will be getting the latest read on inflation from the may cpi report and producer prices are due on thursday morning and import and export prices on friday. a few reports of note. oracle reporting tomorrow. broad com on wednesday and adobe reporting on thursday. >> in the meantime, apple iks kicking off its conference. apple expected to show off new software for its vision pro headset, apple watch and apple tv platforms so a very big day for folks to understand what the future of apple is going to look like. i imagine the shares will move around as a result today as well. >> elliott investment management has a stake of nearly 3 billion

in southwest airlines and plans to push for changes. reports say elliott plans to engage with management but no other details were available. southwest stock price has fallen more than half in the past three years. >> oh, no. >> oh, no! what year was that? >> 1980. >> half the people were not born yet and they are saying what is wrong with these people? >> tesla shareholders vote on thursday whether to reauthorize elon musk's pay package. norway fund will vote against it how it fails to mitigate key person risk. tesla approved the 56 billion pay in 2008 and so did the shareholders. norway fund owns about 1% of tesla. the fund voted against the pay

package in 2018. so at least it's not one of those situations where they vote one way in 2018 and say never mind. >> yeah. >> i guess the institutional versus retail is going to be an interesting question. >> huge retail. 50/50, 50% retail and see what happens. if you focus on twitter orread it, you think the retail is vot voting for elon, but i don't know. we will see. >> joking about e.t. the movie. that may have been a long time ago but stephen spielberg is still relevant. we will see how relevant but making a big video. >> you're trying to bring this back? >> no, i'm not bringing it back but we will see. he is still as visible as probably -- >> i think he is a bigger culture icon now. >> what did we say is in the '80s? >> '83, maybe '82.

is that 42 years? that little kid has been in a bunch of movies with leonardo dicaprio and more. >> apple has a developers conference. here is a look at shares and video. under pressure ahead of the open ki eecto 10 for 1 stock split tangfft day.

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welcome back. apple's worldwide developers conference is kicking off today and they are expected to lay out its vision how to generate a.i. into its products. daniel flax is joining us now. what is your best guess at this point what we will see and how much is break or make day? >> good morning. i think we will see improvement to sir. >> siri. you'll see more around your calendar messages and features on the platform get infused with a little bit more intelligence. it makes it valuable. i don't think it's a make or break day. i think the key is apple laying out the tools for the developer community and it's really those developers who build on top of

the platform that makes this broader ecosystem vibrant and continues to install base growth which ultimately drives revenue growth for the company. >> how much better or worse do you expect whatever these now products or features will look like to be relative what is available on an android phone right now? >> i think in line to a little bit better. i say that because where apple is able to differentiate is really its ability to bring the hardware, the software, and the services together in a fun, secure, and private way. and this ability to deliver that user experience contrasts a bit with android where there are many good devices, but apple is able to unify it and it does so across its broader product and services and ecosystem and that is particularly valuable, in my view. >> what is your expectation of what we are going to learn about either some kind of partnership

with an open a.i. or potentially with google and gemini? >> i think you'll see -- you could see something from open a.i. today. i think google, which remains both a competitor and a partner to apple, i think they are going to continue to have an important role to play in search on the platform and, of course, apple is going to continue to innovate and invest in its own offerings which in some sense compete with a.i. and google so it's a combination of things. >> do you think it's going to be a paid for services? thinking that google has paid a few effectively to apple. it's unclear whether open a.i. is in a position to pay a fee to apple and likely actually the reverse which is to say that depending how it's supposed to, would, you think apple would have to pay a fee to open a.i. and apple doesn't like to do that.

dan? he is frozen. the question was either that good or that bad -- >> you either stumped or it's like this guy, this guy, i'm not trying that. >> dan, are you back? >> i'm back, andrew. i think what you're going to see is apple is going to -- excuse me. unlikely to pay anything substantial to open a.i. and see how the traffic goes. you're seeing apple's ability to distribute over 2 billion users on its broader platform over a billion on the iphone is what is particularly valuable. the key here, though, is the user experience. open a.i. has, i think, an important role to play in the broader tech space and apple will partner with them. i think apple will give users choice if they want to do more with google as well. it's very, very early and so what we are looking to see is how the user experience evolves and -- >> the reason i raise that on the open a.i. piece is if the service works as well as you'd want it to, which is to say

you'd want it to move your calendar around and get deep into certain apps and do all of it by voice and everything else and it's leveraging open a.i. to do that, it means no context back to open a.i. to make it complicated for open a.i. in the future monetize. they go back to your site and on your site you do something with them. in this case, in an a.i. world there is no going back and becomes the sort of challenge to the model. >> for open a.i., i think they will get access to aggregated data and i think apple will work to ensure the privacy of its individual user data. i think there is still value to open a.i. in terms of its ability to et gget the data.

the difference with paapple is monetizes through the device sail and incremental services on top where they add value and i think that model for apple will largely be intact and for google and open a.i. i think you'll continue to see that play out in a different way about ultimately it's about the service providers to the data. >> dan, thank you so much for joining us this morning. catch cnbc full coverage of apple's developers conference running throughout the day on our broadcast. scott will be live in cupertino. it happens at 12:00 and 3:00 p.m. eastern time this morning. or today, i should say. when we come back, former president trump pledging a tax cut if he is re-elected. we have the details right after this break. this break. later,

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former president trump speaking at a rally in las vegas yesterday. he said his administration would eliminate taxes on tipped income first thing is he re-elected. a spokeswoman clarified that trump would ask congress to eliminate on tips. mos >> u.s. basketball won't include caitlin clark no competition in

the summer competition at the olympics. she didn't feel any disappointment with what she and many viewed as a snub. she said she is excited for the girls on the team that will be rooting them on to win gold. when asked about the olympic decision, indiana fever head coach said clark told her, hey, coach, they woke a monster. clark didn't need extra motivation on friday. she scored 30 points in just 39 minutes of playing time against the washington mystics and that included a rookie record tying seven three-pointers. can we just say it's totally nuts? it is nuts. if you're trying to build the franchise that is american basketball, i can't even rationize in my head how you could ever get to this point. >> she isdefinitely in the top 12. i don't know if she is in the top five yet. you know, the way you start and you watch the greatest college athletes in any of these sports when they go in to, whether it's the nfl or mlb, anything you go

in to, it takes time and she is not great yet in the wnba but she will be. >> this is a snub. >> i know. probably is. >> no other way to describe it. >> she is definitely in the top 12. >> choose to do this -- if this is supposed to showcase american basketball. >> andrew! >> that is what it's about. >> it's about money and visibility, if it's about that, you're right. if it's about -- i see she is definitely in the top 12. i don't think she is in the top five at this point. >> she has a rough entry. . i think the bigger issue is the lack of her team support in the situation she got shoved down recently and nobody came to get her back. >> they definitely call it exactly like it is and we know what a lot of it is about. >> it's jealousy. >> they harken back to larry bird when he came in. there was initially some intensity and they became lifelong friends. at the time, it was like, you know, larry -- it is a sport

where, i mean, african american or black people are great basketball players and he was like -- >> what is adam silver saying? >> i've been pulling for her until this game on friday. >> she has not scored but 1, 15 points. >> that foul, i could see it as a flagrant foul. >> it was. >> a cheap shot also. >> the ball was out of play! ball was out of play! >> a little flopping maybe. also, welcome to -- >> it was welcome to the wnba. >> but it was welcome to the wnba. it was not an immediate response from her team like you go after them. bill said it right. with a guy's team you play hard against guys but if somebody attacks a guy on your team, you all go after them and it didn't

happen here. >> i can see both sides. like she is why everybody is talking about about right now but she can't sit there and play by herself. there are great players that were already there that didn't get attention and just having -- it's good for everybody, that is the thing. i would a little bit miffed if -- >> she is a sleeping giant. >> that is a big statement to make about somebody who just left iowa to be in the top 12. a lot of people want her there. you want money. you want people to show up and you want ratings on tv, put her in but is she really as good as the others? >> clearly, the coach doesn't think so. that is you. >> coming up, a shake-up in europe following eu elections yesterday. we will take you live to

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box." we have live in times square. dow futures are down about 120 points. nasdaq futures off by 28. s&p futures are down 11.5. >> far right nationalist party is gaining ground in yesterday's european union elections. the results prompt the french president emmanuel macron to dissolve parliament and call for snap elections. silva amaro joins us with the latest from brussels. good day. >> reporter: good morning. these later european elections have showed a strong support for far right politicians and this is very clearly the case in

france where the party of the french president emmanuel macron lost significant amounts of support. to give you an idea, the far right party led by le pen obtained about 31% of support, whereas, macron only obtained about 15%. as a result, macron called for a snap parliamentary election and putting pressure on the french assets. the main market is down 2% and french lendsers moving as low as 8% as well and euro is trading lower against the u.s. dollar and the british count. >> very good. we got more elections to watch. i didn't know we were supposed to be watching this closely, so now i can see. obviously, the question is -- is this antiglobalization sentiment

that might be present everywhere in the united states as well? >>. >> reporter: it is present pretty much everywhere. it is putting pressure on certain policies. for instance, what we are expecting from an economic perspective over the next five years, is that the 27 eu nations will be a lot more focused on industrial policy. there is a general feeling theory that the eu needs to do more to compete against china and against the united states. in particular, in the wake of the u.s. inflation but there is more. the european countries also expected to be spending more on the defense, exactly because they believe that they cannot fully rely on the united states for security and, no doubt, the upcoming u.s. election will also a ramifications for a european policies going forward. guys? >> very good. silva, thank you. >> fascinating. it's reaction what is happening here and especially the inflation reduction act. we knew, at the time, it really

angered a lot of our allies because it's spending here that they weren't able to do there. the european union, while it ask h -- does the euro but not the fiscal spending we have here. >> in our interview with peter last year the de-centralization of europe at this point. if you're going to get everything you need from elsewhere, it can -- you know, then you get a war like russia and ukraine and suddenly you don't have any of the stuff. >> energy dependence is a huge part of it too. when we come back, moderna's combination vaccine against covid and the flu showing positive phase 3 data. the ceo stephane bancel will joins us after the break. you can get the best of squawk

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welcome back. moderna out moments ago with data from its phase three trial of a combination flu and covid-19 vaccine and joining us with more on that right now is stephane bancel the ceo of moderna. great to see you. why don't we talk about these results. we knew you were working on a combination of covid and flu. first of all, what is the point of putting the two together? what is the benefit? >> good morning. we are very excited about the new combo. i think a lot of benefits. first for consumers, i don't think many people like needles so if you want to be protected against flu and covid, you can get it in one shot.

i think a huge value for -- into this world, 60 plus, you know, is becoming complicated. you need a flu booster every year and covid booster every near and another booster. a lot of thing to remember and a lot of needles. we think it's become to a combination vaccine and we think that will help the consumers and doctors and nurses where i think everybody is winning. >> the data today that you're releasing is that it actually generated a stronger immune response. what does that mean? more effective to put the two together than to do them individually? >> what it showed is against flu, we -- the best flu vaccine of today. hg. show a little bit better.

covid on next covid products which we announced a positive phase three a month or two ago so we are showing it's actually better and covid vaccine on the market so people take product as early as 2025. >> i guess my reaction when i heard it, it's less afraid of needles and more concerned about the reaction my body has with some of these vaccine and make me physically ill for 24 hours or something. if it increases the immune response, am i likely to get a reaction like that where do feel good or maybe i feel worse? >> actually, not. if you look at the data, it's exactly side effect profile when getting each vaccine independently. so this is why we think it's a very good tradeoff for consumers and doctors. >> you know, last year, we saw a huge decline in the number of people who wanted to get covid vaccines. i think it was an issue for you.

it was an issue for pfizer as well. how much do you think there will be an uptick this year as we have gotten more out from the pandemic, people feel fewer to get a need for these and exposed to it and don't think a need for it. >> clearly, used to be -- thank you for all of the benefits we have. but if you look at the data, this season, 2023, finishing right now. act thousands of people hospitalized by covid. i'm not talk about the pandemic. a lot of work to be done to make americans while the pandemic is, obviously, over, the virus is not gone and people have actually higher risk of getting

hospitalized of covid than because of flu. the virus -- we saw last week, a new strength for the update of the vaccine. i think keep so people realize they need protection from flu and covid. i think this combination will make things easier. people don't remember what vaccine they need to get and just get one update for the year and that will prevent hospitalizations and deaths. >> is the hospitalizations between elderly or people are hig higher -- >> yes. >> it's not necessarily something for the entire general population? >> that's correct. our key target is the people 60 and above because of age being a risk factor. of course, people who have mobility factors as you describe. we should not forget what are the change for covid is not covid. millions of americans long covid

and millions of americans out of a job because of long covid but still an issue exists with covid as not with viruses. if you look at some of us are close to it, you know, the reason i get my vaccine every season is i'm scared of being hospitalized. i'm 52 but i have no covid risk but i do not want covid is why. >> right, right. let's talk about couple of other issues. the data came back with the skin cancer vaccine that showed a survival benefit. not just a survival benefit but also a failure of recurrence for people who were taking this along with -- >> they asked us to present the new data and the survival curve. what is exciting is that two other -- if you get melanoma and

surgical removed, three years after -- we know it's -- death and primary form of a cancer. this is exciting. we will be talking to consider the next phase because we have now proof of protection. a big factor -- we believe it's going to be applicable this technology to many of cancer. right? prostate cancer and blood cancer and that will be a big part. >> that is huge. obviously, we care a lot what you're doing with cancer and want to hear more. your genetic liver treatment got into the fda's pilot program for rare disease. i think that is pretty exciting, too. just the entire pilot program. what you hope to do with this liver disease which often is

left behind because not a big popular patient and not thing in the past the medical companies in the past think an area we want to focus on. >> one of the beauty of this technology is you can get -- liver is an organ and to stay healthy a lot of actually rare disease in the liver. as you say, sometimes only a few thousand people. may be a few hundred people. but those patients have no hope. parents have no hope for their children and we want to change that and happy we have kids up 3 years up to three weeks on the medicine. we have seen an remarkable impact in terms of their hospitalization rates. so we are very pleased so that these data is very exciting and for this new program is going to help us accelerate those drugs get to patients. so that is a field mortality if

you think will moderna the vaccine we have spoken a lot about and -- cancer and liver and free strong pillar of medicine and growth of the company. >> stephane, thank you. appreciate your time and the update. stephane bancel of modern arthritis. >> coming up, we have at all to steve moore in a bit and jason furman who served in the obama white house and that is coming n e up ith8:00 hour. you don't want to miss it. we will be back after this.

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welcome to "squawk box." shares of saudi aramco rising

overnight and secondary stock option at the price and set to raise 11.2 billion for the state oil company. reuters reporting that the demand for the offering topped 65 billion dollars and they placed over half of the sale with foreign investors. look right now at the price of crude. wti wti, it will cost you 75.63 by the dabarrel. coming up, we're going to talk about gamestop and that live stream by roaring kitty occurred on friday. that's next. gamestop shares right now, they were rebounding a little, they are. for gamestop that's not a lot, but it's up about 9% premarket. we'll be right back. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

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when it was all said and done, gamestop shares plunged on friday after the company announced its sales dropped significantly in the first quarter and said it was selling more stock. in the premarket, i think you can kind of see it. you can see it on the chart, it had run up remember earlier in the week to like 40, and then in the premarket it looked like it was going to go up 50% from there or more and when it was all said and done, it was all the way back to 28 today. it is up a little bit to around 30. all this happened after a live stream by keith gill, aka roaring kitty failed to rally retail traders to his cause. joining us is the "axios" reporter who's been tracking this story, hope king. it started with such promise for people long on friday. hope and then that surprise announcement when results were released, i guess presumably to

get things ready for an expanded stock sale. that started the momentum down, and it was hard to stop that and the live stream did not seem to help very much. >> no, good morning, and thanks for having me back. i mean, first of all, i'm also sad that we're going to get shorter days, but that aside, you know, it was really a story of fun versus fundamentals on friday. the fundamentals as you mentioned, the company coming out early with the results of its first quarter going up against everybody who was just trying to watch what he was going to do, and at the end of the day as of friday, that story that he tried to tell on his live stream didn't win folks over and, of course, we're seeing a little bit of rebound in premarket. to me that was really the big story was that on friday at at least, because we know how this story changes day-to-day with the stock, the fun did not win over, fundamentals, given the

business is still in that drastic turn-around strategy. >> just sort of going over a lot of the things he's been saying all along, hope, about gamestop, i mean, three years ago i guess you could buy some of it, but we've had now another three years of performance from the company. are those old bullish, you know, sentiments? do they still work at this point? i'm not sure that they dork, i wonder if this is going to be a much more short-lived meme stock characterize this time? >> i think you're right. i think the analysts that you've had also on your program have gone into this. i mean thr, this is a retail business and we know that retail has pockets of strength right now and pockets of weakness. they're really trying to improve the relationship that the store employees have with the customers coming in. you know you've got ryan cohen

in as of september. you know, that was really his main thesis on friday, keith gils, was that he believes this guy is not a doofus. you guys talked about how it seemed instane, the live stream. he admitted i'm a little cuckoo. that's been the retail story with the stocks. we talked about this with the reddit ipo as well. people who are -- people who understand businesses like a reddit or a gamestop, they think it's something they can get in on for the lulls. everything the internet touches, right, turns to lulls. that's what you saw in the comments that were rapidly going into that live stream. at one point there were 644,000 concurrent people tuning in to that stream. >> i'm watching right now, i didn't see it. and he -- yeah, looks like fun, i guess, but there's the 8 ball.

it is a little bit crazy. how many times can you go back to the well with, yeah, i'm crazy and i'm buying and it's going to go up 40%. i just -- sooner or later t, it like buyer beware, it's not going to keep happening, is it? >> i totally agree with you. if you look at his twitter account, he only posts memes. his last one was a screen shot a clip from the movie batman the dark night. even at the beginning of his live stream, over 50 preminutes that live stream a big chunk of it was him laughing uncontrollably at himself as he put band-aids all over himself. >> what do you think was going on honestly when you saw this? did you -- he only broke out the beer sort of 20 minutes in, but i thought maybe some beer had been broken out prior or something. >> agree with you 100% that he

had pregamed before this. i think he was nervous. i think he was watching andrew left on your program with scott before he went on, and i think you guys talked about, you know, him lawyering up before that live stream. he made very clear points that he is working alone. he's not working with anybody else. niese the working with hedge funds. these are all the things people have been speculating out in the media. i think he's watching it very closely, everybody who's been talking about him, and he's been really trying to clear the air in his own way about it. >> do you think right now, hope, what type of fundamentals would you think gamestop would need to be worth $30 a share? are we there right now? >> i mean, i do not have the certifications to give you that answer. i do think, like i said, the retail story is a difficult one all across the board, especially with gaming. >> still worth $10 million. i mean, it's -- you know, $10 billion, nothing to sneeze -- there's plenty of downside, i would think, if

things don't improve. >> yes, yes, and i think but like look at what's happening, you know, with microsoft, activision blizzard. they're all going to the streaming model, right, for video games. that connection, that in-store experience has to be paramount at this point to get people back in the doors odutside of just te video games they're selling i think on the experience side. i think, look, again, we'll see what ryan cohen has up his sleeve, but you can only, i think be the pied piper, the mr. beast of the stock for so long before, you know, people also say you know what? i think i've lost enough. i think i'll try my hand at some other stocks. i don't know. that's where my head's at. >> all right, hope, thanks. it's a good shot you have. it could be good for other people that look terrible shots on zoom and stuff. you've got your "axios" logo on the screen. you are ready for a live shot. >> room raiders. that's a 10.0 right there. >> thank you, thank you. i try my best for you guys.

thanks so much for having me. >> we appreciate that, thank you. >> see the back light, the front light, it all works. it is 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. a bunch of steories, a light wek on the earnings front. tomorrow the fed kicking off a two-day policy meeting: on wednesday the latest look at cpi, plus, the fed's policy decision followed by jay powell's press conference in the afternoon. that's going to be widely followed, and then thursday the latest read on producer prices after the biggest month on month gain in april. the world's largest sovereign wealth fund saying it's going to be voting against ratifying elon musk's pay package. the eighth largest shareholder in tesla saying it's concerned about the size of the compensation package, its structure and how it fails to mitigate key person risk skpnkts then the news of the day,

apple's worldwide developer conference kicking off in cupertino starting at 1:00 p.m. eastern time today, the company widely expected to detail its strategy to address the ai wave sweeping across tech including integrating in its suite of operating systems and a massive overhaul of its series voice assistant. scott wapner will be on the ground to bring us that news throughout the day. let's take a look at the futures this morning. we are still under pressure, maybe not quite as much as we were an hour ago. you can see the dow futures down by about 95points below fair value. s&p futures down by 9, the nasdaq off by 21. let's get over to dom chu. what are you following today? >> happy monday, a couple of the dow components helping to prop things up in that downside move you just highlighted are coming out of analysts' calls. we'll start with the shares of honeywell up about half a percent or so around 3,000

shares of premarket trading volume. the industrial conglomerate and dow component is now being helped along by an upgrade at ubs from a neutral rating. it's a bit of a catchup call with the shares almost at $208 at friday's close. they think that their prior view of downside risks for honeywell has diminished and strength in aerospace provides a better backdrop for future valuations. also, fellow dow component walmart shares are up nearly about 1% or so. helped along been an analyst at jpmorgan an upgrade to an overweight rating from prior neutral. the target price bumped up from 81 to 66. they think it provides a good mix of offense and defense amid a softer backdrop for the health of the overall consumer. those shares up a percent or so. shares of draft kings up nearly 1.5%, just around 10,000 shares of volume getting some tailwind

help from morgan stanley calling it a top pick in the business. they think the effect of gaming tax proposals in states will not have as negative an impact as some fear and more regulation could open the door for legalization of other future gaming and betting revenue streams. you can see those shares up about 1.5%. that's just part of the story. for more on those and other top analyst calls of the day, head to cnbc.com/pro. subscribe for more access to details. a couple of dow components in the news. >> dom, thank you very much. we'll see you later. coming up, they had it dreay to go, did you see? it said becky quick, scheffler wins. that has nothing to do with dom's movers, does it? >> no. that's video in case you jumped in and wanted to talk some golf. >> they give it to you so that doesn't happen. he did have his little baby with

him. he's won like five out of eight tournaments. he wins the u.s. open it will be the greatest run in the history of the game. >> and again, seeing the footage for what was happening behind the scenes when he was arrested, that's crazy. >> it's like barney fife, that guy gilless. former fdic chair sheila bair joins us, says discouraging regional banks from acquisitions is worse than a disease. the national retail federation breaking down consumer spending for the month of may. we're going to have the details. squaw"squawk box" coming right .

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♪ we have a big week ahead for the markets with the fed's two-day policy meeting and a key inflation data number coming up in focus. for his take on the markets, wwe want to bring in david miller, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at catalyst capital. thanks for being here this morning. >> great to be here, thank you. >> let's talk through what we're anticipating this week. at the fed meeting you've got that big cp irgs meeting that's coming. after that we get the ppi number. jobs number threw things into a little bit of chaos last week. it makes people kind of question and wonder where we're standing. how do you feel about things? >> yeah, i mean, 272,000 nonfarm payrolls on friday. that was a pretty big number. people definitely weren't expecting something that strong, but it definitely is probably a

pretty good indicator that the economy is doing a lot better than people were thinking. >> therefore, as a result, that means great news because the markets are going to continue to climb, or is it a concern that the market is less likely to get that fed put kind of things where you see a rate cut coming from here. >> i don't see a fed rate cut coming from here, look at the cpi numbers, they're too strong. you look at the unemployment numbers, it's too strong. >> is it better to just have a good economy where things are continuing to hem along, or has the market been anticipating there has to be a cut this year? >> i think the market got that reaction friday. i don't think you need the cut people were anticipated for the market to be able to hold up and do well. it's probably not going to be a rip roaring market, but it can be healthy. >> you guys have $640 million in total assets. where are you putting your money to work right now? >> it's one fund, right? >> the catalyst systemic alpha fund. >> cio for the firm, we have

about 9 billion, that fund is about 646 million, so in terms of that fund, what we're doing is extreme diversification. we have equity strategies, commodity strategies, currency strategies, bond strategies, yeah, the returns of all of them together and that usually should get you a better output. >> diversification has been the play you guys have been moving with. >> extreme diversificdiversific >> most funds that i'll look at they look at diversification as in we own 400 stocks. it's zero diversification. it's 400 bets on the same outcome. if you can make money from stocks but interest rates are 0% in japan, 5.5 in the u.s., why not also borrow in japan at 0 and lend in the u.s. and collect 5.5. that's our philosophy. we go beyond doing that with equities and currencies. we do it with bonds and commodities as well. >> you said the market doesn't

need a cut, you mean in june or do you mean in 2024? >> i think even without a cut in 2024, even though it's -- >> will there not be a cut in 2024? >> i don't think there should be, if i were running the fed, it wouldn't be my decision. i don't get how you get to 2% inflation number if you're running over 3 now. >> but you think there will be, but you don't think there should be? >> i think more likely than not there will not be. >> no cut in this calendar year, just to pin you down here? >> so i think it's 50/50 as to whether the fed does it. i don't think it's a smart move. i think you're going to let inflation run hot. >> does this give you a lot more opportunities for extreme diversification if you have the ecb cutting rates and the fed standing pat. there's a lot more interesting things you can find out there i would assume. >> absolutely. there's always a lot of interesting things you can do if you broaden your scope beyond equities or beyond bonds.

frankly, when the yield curve is in inverted, you can get paid to be short bonds. it's kind of a funky phenomena. when the yield curve's inverted and you're shorting bond futures, that's what you're getting paid to do. >> what are your newest ideas that other people may not be thinking of and following? you guys are doing some pretty extreme things. >> the main philosophy that i think we have that's worked well for us is something that would be common sense when it comes to sports. you never see a coach for team go out and say, you know what, you guys are great at offense, but self-defense is a waste of . you see these funds where they just have offensive strategiesings but there's defensive strategies, trend following, currency carry where you can make just as much money. if you add them together, you should be able to get much better total returns but you should also get much better downside protection because things like trend following tend

to work their best in bear markets. that's kind of our philosophy. it makes more sense to play offense and defense rather than choosing one or another. >> what's a new trade you have on because of some of the changes we've seen, the fed hasn't cut rates. you mentioned japan is a very interesting thing, that's something buffett and berkshire have been doing too. >> we're short bond futures. that's been a big one for us. it works well because you have a negative trend with bonds. you're also getting paid to be short bonds. if you look at the commodity space, there's a lot of commodities where you can get paid a lot for the storage costs of commodities. we're doing things like that. that's been working as well. >> i was just reading a story about that where they've done that. >> copper's been very strong this year, the mining production has been pretty weak, but there's also been increased demand both on the industrial side and the military side. if you look to the commodity markets in gold. gold's had a great year this year. there's a lot of good places to make money.

>> david, thanks for coming in today. >> thanks for having me. >> appreciate it. coming up next, not letting regional banks grow through acquisition is worse than the disease. that's the message from former fdic chair sheila bair. she's going to join us in just a moment to explain. later, senator john thune is going to be with us to discuss the economy, border crisis and so much more. "squawk" returning after this.

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while regulators are discouraging regional banks from growing acquisitions, in order to compete with big banks like jpmorgan, like capital one discover could help boost regional bank competition. joining us right now is sheila bair, a systemic risk senior adviser. good morning to you. i will tell you, i was surprised to read this op-ed, sheila, because historically when we've talked about risk and talked about getting big and bigger and too big to fail, i've always thought you were on the other side of this. this is very interesting sort of twist. >> well, i am very concerned about concentrations. we do have too much concern in the banking industry.

this top four and actually jpmorgan and b of a are starting to pull away from the other two, citi and wells to provide even more concentration. that's where regulators should be focused. impeding regional bank m&a, we have a lot of regional banks, it's highly competitive burt thy need scale to compete f. you have a market driven solution to some of this concentration you need to let the regional banks get a bit bigger. regional bank m&a is important from a stability standpoint, especially when you get into times of stress. the fdic and other regulators have worked with banks to merge the stronger ones to help stabilize the system. >> it's typically almost sacrilegious to say, but i'll ask you the question, do we have too many banks in this country? you always talk about local banks and the value those local banks have to their communities and how important that is. there's a flip side argument to say look at other countries that

have only a handful of banks, where should we be? >> i think the market should drive those solutions in that we need to charter more banks too. we need to worry about regulatory complexity. i've been a strong advocate for strong capital regulation, liquidity regulation issue. i think you can do that much more simply and less expensively from an administrative cost standpoint, which has also impaired the ability of banks to start and grow because of these costs which also benefit the larger banks. i think that should be market driven. i think our system of multiple banks is more dynamic, it's more innovative. it's served us better than these other countries where you have highly, you know, huge concentrations in just a handful of large banks. so that's a very precarious position for the government to be in. so no, i think it's a good thing to have lots of banks. i think it's been a strength, not a weakness of our system. >> do you think that the prevention, if you will, of more

mergers and acquisitions in the banking space is a function of the treasury department? >> do y do you think it's a function of the doj and i just interviewed jonathan canter and lina khan last week. you sort of have these competing interests. i can see the treasury department saying maybe we should have more concentration, and i could see jonathan canter or lina khan saying maybe not? >> i think it's where you're going to be focused. broadly i support the administration's focus on increased, you know, corporate concentrations throughout our economy, and a lot of that's been driven by super low interest rates. so some of the higher interest rates are going to be correcting for a bit of it. but if you are worried about concentrations of banking, and we should be, look at the top. to attack the regional bank m&a is just going to increase the competitive note around these very, very large institutions we have already, so that's where you should be focusing, higher capital would be one way to do

it for the mega banks. basil 3 seems bogged down. i think there's going to be substantial revisions before we see what happens there. if you want to reduce concentrations focus at the very top, not the regional banking se se sector. >> do you think there would be a distinction between how banks and bank mergers would be approached under a biden administration versus a trump administration? >> i assume so, you know, trump is so unpredictable. who knows what would happen there, but i do think there is, y yes, this is symptomatic of a broader policy initiative to attack corporate concentrations. some of that i'm sympathetic to, in the banking sector they're focusing on the wrong place, the true concentration is at the very, very largest banks. >> can i get you to weigh in on what has been written about in terms of a very toxic environment at the fdic and your

successor or multiple times later along the line, but his exit? >> yeah, well, i think it's -- it's tragic. it's heartbreaking. i have said i think it's, you know, this is hurting him. it's hurting the agency. it's toime for him to exit. he said he will as soon as his successor is confirmed. >> this idea that he's hanging around the hoop? >> i do. i think morale is very bad at the fdic. they need a fresh face, a fresh perspective. they need strong leadership, someone who understands the operational side. it's a very complex agency as well as on the policy side. they need that, but if marty goes now, you're going to have a split board. it's going to be paralysis, and i don't see how that's going to help the agency or staff morale either. so i think the solution here is for the white house to act quickly to bring in new leadership. now, it's a problem because the place is having a lot of problems right now, and there's going to be job uncertainty. we don't know what's going to

happen in the elections and if mr. trump is elected, all bets are off in terms of respecting agency and independent. >> can we recruit you as an -- on a temporary basis? what are you doing this summer? are you available? are you available? just for the next six months. we can just say it's a short-term. you're coming in to clean things up and somebody else will take over depending on what happens after the election. >> well, that's very flattering. i don't think i'm the right person, but i do think that might be another alternative to look at a potential recess appointment, bring somebody in who's strong on the operational side to help start, you know, providing a fresh start. you know, the fdic is a great agency. i really get upset when i hear people say, oh, it's always been toxic. it's always been terrible. that is just not true. when i left the fdic, we had a highly energized, highly professional agency. what zbl what do you think

happened? is it really marty? >> no, because for years after i left, i was on the outside looking in, but rankings and best places to work remained high. i think there were tensions between him and yellen and mcwilliams. i think that maybe was a distraction. and then, you know, things -- part of the problem was we were having these apparently having these incidents widespread at the regional level that were bubbling up. some of them were at the headquarters level too. people weren't responding. they weren't imposing accountability. that kind of thing starts spinning out of control. the heads of these agency, you've got to pay attention to the operational side as well and make sure people are held to the highest standards, and the fdic traditionally has and will again have very high standards of conduct. >> do you have a candidate you'd like to nominate? >> no, i wouldn't. i wouldn't say it publicly if i did. but i think that's the profile i think the white house should be looking for and fingers crossed

they're able to bring in somebody soon. >> sheila, we've got to go. i know what's right behind you, and i think we should give you a promotion opportunity because people don't know this, sheila writes kids books, and she's got them right behind her. >> thank you. >> i don't know if you want to tell us about either daisy bubble or one of the other stories. >> thanks for the plug, yeah, it's called money tales. there's the two most recent ones, ones about asset bubbles and ones about price inflation, topical topics, but yeah, i mean, i love it. i've been doing it since my first book came out in 2004, and since you're letting me do a little ad for title one schools, serving low income communities. go on my website, we've been able to raise money to make book donations. and if you can afford to buy them, happy for you to buy them too. kids learn and parents learn too. >> speaking in a language

children understood something you learned in washington. is it a good skill to have? >> so making things very simple especially sometimes with certain politicians, but my former boss bob dole when i was writing this, he tweet thaed th there's another one b about the perils of unaffordable debt that every member of congress should be reading that. >> real quick, age range for the books? >> 7 to 10, grades 2 through 5. >> perfect for congress. >> and the sorkin kids. thank you very much, sheila, great to see you. coming up, cnbc and the national retail federation releasing the latest on a retail monitor, a breakdown of consumer spending and what it's saying about the state of the economy. that's next. the futures right now are not as bad as they were, down 60 now on the dow, off a little on the

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activist investor elliott investment management reportedly building a nearly $2 billion stake in southwest airlines. "the wall street journal" reporting that it's make ago push for changes to reverse the company's relative underperformance. along with southwest, elliott is also looking for change at soft bank, texas instruments, johnson controls and philips 66. coming up, nvidia set to start trading today after its stock split. can the ai play continue its rise. we're going to discuss that. and then we'll talk jobs, the economy d reanmo with the ceo of adp. "squawk box" coming back right after this. between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance.

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alamos gold. invest with us. our growth sets us apart. cnbc and the national retail federation putting out the latest retail monitor breaking down consumer spending for the month of may. our senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us right now. he has the results on that. steve, good morning. >> hey, good morning, becky. yeah, the american consumer bouncing back strongly in may after a lackluster april. boosting spending in several discretionary sectors, and really countering the narrative of a weakening economy. the cnbc nrf retail monitor uses

real credit card spending data from affinity solutions shows may spending ex auto and gas rising by 1.4% compared to 0.3 in april. year-over-year it's up 3% compared to a negative number in april. core retail sales, that is food services as well as auto and gas, rose 1.2 versus 0.4 in april. the year-over-year up 3% versus a slight negative in april. it's the sector breakdown that's remarkable. non-store retailers powering up by 2%, restaurants and bars 2%. food and beverage strong, clothing and accessories, sporting goods and general merchandise also strong, gas stations were negative and building and garden supplies negative as well. they've been negative for a while there. this is the strongest of the 20 months we've tracked this data, and it's unclear if it's just a rebound from april or the start perhaps of a new consumer spending spree. it fits well with that strong

jobs report we got on friday. now, if this number is repeated next week when census releases their data, it's going to lead almost certainly to an upgrade. it's going to offer the fed another reason not to cut interest rates. the monitor you can see here tracks along with the census's retail reports, though it's less volatile. unlike the government report, our data, the retail monitor not revised because it uses actual spending data. the fed's going to look very kro closely at this week's inflation report. weaker consumer spending and jobs report would give them more confidence that there's slack in the economy and less inflationary pressure. they didn't get that friday, guys, and they're not getting it today from our retail monitor showing a stronger consumer. >> this is such a fascinating number because, again, this is on the data that people were actually spending. it's not just saying what they thought they were going to spend

or something along those lines. how do you compile it all again? >> so this is -- affinity solutions is our data provider. they get actual credit card data from, you know, dozens of banks, and it's really billions of transactions that they put together, and they give that data to the economist at the nrf, and they crunch the data and seasonally adjust it. it's a very new series, becky. i'm watching it carefully. we did some data runs on it before we went public with it back in november. but it's, as you can see from the census versus our data, it tracks it not precisely month to month. the census data, they use surveys and other things. there's no surveys involved here. >> how come the government isn't doing something more like what you're doing with this? it seems like a better read than asking people surveys, surveying

people on what they think they spend or plan to spend. >> well, it's a good question, becky. i can tell you the fed is doing something similar to this. they are -- they have a feed of realtime data from another provider, the census has recently announcedthey're going to be incorporating more real data into their surveys. the government does these things very slowly. sometimes i think that makes sense. sometimes it doesn't, but they just made an announcement. i don't know if we pressured them or who pressured them but we have some other sources on this. more and more we're able to get realtime data on the economy. it's just a question of how to use it, how to fit it into a way that makes sense and is consistent over time. >> steve, thank you. >> pleasure. up next, nvidia is now the fourth of the magnificent seven to split its stock since 2022. can ai play continue its climb?

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first trading day after nvidia's ten for one stock split that took place on friday after the market closed. let's check on the stock, which -- joining us now with more is a wolfe research senior analyst, and there's so many other things that you write about, chris, fundamentals, but does anything matter more than when you take a $3 trillion company and you do the split and any gains you have from here, we really do need to look at that in terms of where that puts the market cap because, i mean, trees don't grow out of the sky. we always say that. i didn't know it was hard to get

to a trillion when apple first did it then too. then you got microsoft and others, but 3 trillion, how much more is nvidia worth right now given its future, would you say? >> well, you know, i remember having this discussion when apple hit a trillion with you, and it's still higher. listen, it really comes down to the fundamentals. what's their place in ai. where are the contents going. this is still a really good story here. what i think is important is obviously the impact on ai and h such but nvidia's content is going up significantly. this isn't a stock where, you know, the multiple has expanded over time. the stock is where it is because the earnings have kept pace. you know, it's only trading at about a mid-30s multiple off of this, so you know, it's been an absolute incredible run, but it has been absolutely backstopped by the fundamentals. so you're on next year's

earnings, what do you mean? it's like 35 to 1? >> yeah, yeah, that's right. and, you know, as we look, it's been, you know, our best idea for the better part of, you know, a year and a half since october 22, we put it on a top picks list. interestingly, the stock before the split, the stock is higher after the split than it was back in october '22 before the split. it has been an incredible run. we did recently take it off our top picks list and replaced it with amd, just acknowledging the very strong run that it's had, and as you said trees don't grow to the sky. but you know, we are still, you know, very bullish on the fundamentals looking into next year because of the next product cycle. >> typically it's a 25% move after a split like that, so i mean, then you're talking about another -- you're talking about more than 3.5 trillion at that point. >> well, they announced the split on earnings back in may,

and it's had a pretty strong run since then, so i guess i'd argue that it's -- you know, if the stock was, of course, the split doesn't affect the fundamentals, but it has had a strong run since earnings and perhaps the split had something to do with that. >> so all in with, you know, factor in competition and where we are in the, you know, adoption of ai and the use of chips for, you know, both of the segments that it causes, you know, to set it up and to build it out and everything else, what kind of compound growth rate do you see for nvidia over the next five years for earnings? >> well, and things are moving very quickly in ai, but, you know, it's been running at -- revenue has been doubling, more than doubles year on year for the past several years as ai has taken hold. you know, again, what i think is

interesting in nvidia and semiconductors in general is that now we're seeing pricing go up too. it's not pricing going up just because, you know, they're taking price and raising price indiscriminately. it's because at the end of moore's law, if you want more performance, you have to pay for it, and ai is driving a lot of productivity in the economy, and this next generation of nvidia chips is much more productive, and the tag line what genjensen huang says the more you buy, movie theathe more you save. the answer to that question over time, it's difficult to quantify. the extent to which ai drives productivity in society, nvidia is going to take the largest percentage of that because they're the ones enabling it. >> but if the multiple stays -- i mean, it's not cheap. it's not crazy, but you know, mid-30s, mid to high 30s. the stock appreciation will

maybe mirror the compound growth rate of earnings per share. do you think it can grow at 20% a year for five years, earnings per share? >> absolutely do. >> 30%? i'm just wondering what -- >> i think growth rate in the 30s is a very very proximation on it. again, one of the proxies that helps you goet to that number, generation on generation pricing for this next generation looks to be about 40%, and they're coming out with product every single year. in addition, they've expanded their networking portfolio and going forward in ai networking is going to be a much bigger driver of performance as well. so there's a lot of irons in the fire. pricing is going up, and obviously ai is doing what it's doing. a growth rate in the 30s is reasonable. with a stock multiple in the 30s, it's a pack of about one.

>> there will be competition, obviously, i don't know who you think is a viable competitor, but are there any competitors that are in a good position that don't cost $3 trillion for the company or aren't in the mid-30s for multiples? how do you play ai besides nvidia? or do you since everybody's still spending money, you know, with future rewards, we don't know when they're coming really. >> right, it's one of the moves we made recently is that we put amd on our top picks list. that will be your alternative in ai and you know, the stock hasn't had as much of a run. the multiples actually similar in the mid-30s right now, but you know, it's a little bit of law of large numbers, law of small numbers. amd has a lot to potentially gain in this market as a number

two to nvidia, and our thesis on amd is pretty simple. you know, they were able to get, you know, kind of a 15% or so market share for many years with intel even when they were a generation behind because the customers don't want one supplier to have, you know, 100% market share. and you know, we think with that right now amd has less than a 5% share of ai. so you know, there's a lot to potentially gain and nvidia doesn't need to lose in order for amd to win, which is why we put that on our top picks list. >> okay, so you got -- went to mit briefly, you had a 1250 target, so that's a 125 target now? >> yes, that's right. that's right. we've got to get some visibility -- >> yeah, i came up with that. that's not much. >> yeah. and you know, again, it looked like a pretty good gain at

the -- >> explain that when it was announced. you got a little less bullish based on valuation, i think. >> yeah, it needs -- you know, it's a very well owned stock. i am sure you don't have many people come on the program that they don't like nvidia right now. >> like nvidia right now. you need visibility what's going on over the next two years and things are moving quickly, but the signs point in the right direction. the company last week, number of investors, met. sound bullish about this new product blackwell. >> all the characteristics of a -- a -- getting pretty -- a word called gen sanity, what you get when you talk an jensen. almost a, a demigod in taiwan, native -- if you go -- so i mean, it's all deserved at this point. no doubt. we got to run, chris. chris caso, rhymes with ted lasso. what i'm told. you see that in the notes?

>> not case -o. >> right. coming up other side of this, payroll giant adp talking wages, state of the economy. later, roaring kitty returning to youtube. yes, in gamestop. gained slightly after a 40% drop on friday. latest in the meme stock saga, all straight aad.he don't go anywhere. "squawk box" is coming right back.

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(♪♪) wow... are you kidding me? you can do this. at truist, we believe the same is true for banking. all right. welcome back, everybody. a pair of jobs reports offering diverging messages on the labor market for the month of may. government's employment report showing gains in non-farm payrolls stronger than forecast. while the apd report showed less than expected gains in private payrolls. for more on the changing labor landscape, we bring in maria black. pled and ceo of adp, the global tech firm specializing in human capital management solutions. maria, welcome.

here to ring the opening bell to today. >> sure are. >> shocked. 75th anniversary of adp. i can't believe you've been around that long. >> yes. 75th anniversary. couldn't be more excited today ringing the opening bell. adp at the forefront of payroll and innovation 75 years. personally here for 30 and watched this firsthand evolve. it's remarkable, but isn't just about 75 years. really about the future of work as we chart the next course and the next 75. >> shocking what's happened to work over, let's say, three quarters of a century. >> yes. >> maybe in the last five, ten years. the pandemic. people working from how and now a.i. coming to the workplace, too. >> you do. for us watching the trends. one of the things unique about adp's data, the unique data set we have, we span all the way from the small business. pizza shop on main street, all the way to the most complicated

multikm-national corporations. 1 million clients across 140 countries. think about that. look at the workforce trends. remarkable, becky. workforce friends, distributive workforce that exists. access to talent globally is not new. started in '80s and '90s with global expansion. you mentioned postpandemic, flexible hybrid work space, everywhere. a big piece what we're seeing. the other part we see you cross our data, generational aspect. five generations actively working in the market today. as everyone is setting course as relates to what that means in term it was being an employer, having to address all of these five generations, there's a lot that we're seeing that employer, solving for. >> and weird. we've spoken a little on the show about how different generations obviously look at a.i. pretty differently. you anticipate the youngest

workers are the ones most open seeing what's there. surprised me, the things you've learned, though, that most people who are 23 and younger expect that a.i. is going to drastically change their jobs and in some cases make a lot of what they do obsolete? >> right. we are. we have been doing a lot of research. in fact, later today we're going to release things we've studied as it relates to impact and how the per spception of a.i. per generation is affecting people's roles charting course of their futures. interesting to me. i mentioned the five generations. that's the case what we have today. beyond that generation alpha, those born in 2010. i have a 14-year-old at home and think about him joining the workforce, legally age 14 he could. he will never know work without a.i. he will never in our case in the hr space, nerve verify to fill

out a form for pto and take a day off manually. those things will be facilitated through modern tools. in our case things like adp mobile app, able to, through nag language search be able to do these things and never know work without a.i. the younger generations at some level, whether digital native or alpha, the next generation, they will never know work without a.i. and certainly more tenured generations, thinking their roles going forward is different. a lot of research releasing later today. exciting day. >> curious how you think about the sort of upstart competition in your space? thinking of brex and ripplieing what you integrate into and are frenemies or something. >> yes. >> you are the -- i don't know -- the -- billion dollar gorilla, biggest player. there are oh players coming in. do you look at them and say

these guys are acquisition targets one day? look at their technology and say i really like that,wish we were doing in a? how do you consider this? >> so i'll take the common round that being a gorilla is a compliment. again, 75 years payroll acquisition and the weathering various technology and innovation cycles, more to come, talking about a.i. to answer your question on competition we look at all ecosystems. our clients today interact with so many various pieces of technology. through our adp marketplace we partner, you mentioned, with a lot of upstarts at the very enterprise level. also we partner across the ecosystem. for us it's about one thing that it's always been about. date back all wait to our founder henry talb founded the kpi company 75 years old. solving for our client. found a problem, solved it. started with one client.

we have a million clients today nap involves operating in the broader ecosystem, interacting with various types of technology, various things that solve for the future work for their employees. >> maria, thank you for coming in and we'll be watching at the opening bell. >> yes. thank you very much. >> thank you. it is 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you are watching "squawk box" right hire on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. among today's top stories, major european markets lower this morning after the eu elections. yesterday's results appear to leave main street pro eu parties in power, but far right nationalist parties performed strongly. in france president emmanuel macron dissolving parliament calling new snap elections. moderna shares higher this morning. new data from its phase three trial of the combination flu and covid-19 vaccine showing it to be more effective than existing shots alone.

the ceo spoke to us earlier this morning on "squawk box.." >> we think the market is going to the combination. already the case pediatric setting a lot of combination vaccine. helping consumers, doctors and nurses. i think winning. and apple's worldwide developer conference begins today. the company is expected to lay out its vision for integrating generative a.i. into its products. cnbc has complete coverage that starts on "halftime report" at noon eastern time. futures indicated lower. to mike santoli at the nyse. mike? >> hey, joe. so the record high on the -- pretty much the rule last week and continuing today. remains, though, kind of a selective market. a little split in terms what's working, what's not. visible in the s&p 500 relative to equal weighted version of it.

off the october low after that correction last fall. you see right into the peak here in late march, the last trading day of the first quarter. everything pretty much in sync. a broad and inclusive rally. since then up 2%. average stock rates bottomed. 4.2% late march. part of the story. nvidia's strength up by 30-plus percent since that march 28 date. enough to keep the market cap weighted index up. apple up 15%. i say the trend is strong but lower momentum and narrower breadth markets. two groups, home builders and semiconductors. big outperformers still over the last two years. interestingly, as rates eased back off the recent highs, home builders struggled just a little bit. housing turnover not cooperating. however, smis, market weighted,

nvidia and broadcom a big part of that. seems secular groups rewarded even if a little static in the near term. even though there's been volatility under the surface of this market index level, as i said, a grind. not really a surge or many swings. yes, last week four to five days s&p moved less than 0.2%. volatility index very calm, but because there's so up in of a split within the market the index level volatility is really, restrained. you see traders not seeing a reason going into june. even with catalysts this week, to bid up the possibility of a volatile market the next 30 days, what the vix measures, joe. >> yep. all right. mike, we know, we're due now. got any sayings to help you? >> no good, you know, little couplets to offer you there, but i'll say that whatever it's worth in june and july, you have

positive tailwinds in election years. something people keep trying to hang their hat on. see if that works. >> that doesn't rhyme. >> no. doesn't rhyme. we need a rhyme. like history. doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes. >> yep. >> he doesn't have this. >> i'll work on it. >> thanks, mike. coming up -- >> election year. >> capitol hill. not bad. from the southern border to the race for the white house. republican whip senator john thune of south carolina joins us next. then biden versus trump on the economy. a debate set up with steve moore and senior economic advisor to the trump 2024 presidential campaign joins us along with former economic adviser jason furman. 8:30 eastern time. "squawk box" returns after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box." now for a look at the capitol hill agenda including the southern border plus the 2024 race and more we brin in senator

john thune of south dakota. thune serves as republican whip, number two position in the senate republican leadership. thank you for joining us, good morning. >> fliesnice to be with you. >> talk border first, 202025 election? who's going to be the vp? >> start first why i think trump is going to win because biden is the president of open border and high prices. look what's happening at the southern border, and has happened the last three years, not only are you almost 10 million people who have been apprehended or on the not "got away" list on the southern border, 362 people on the terrorist watch list, a national security crisis for this country and the american people will hold joe biden accountable. a really good shot. who president trump picks as running mate will be his call but i think he's got a lot of good options. >> what would your reaction to

the guilty -- what was your reaction to the guilty verdicts? >> i think for most people that outcome was baked in. if nothing else, it juices republican intensity across the country, what you need in a presidential election. the middle of the electorate will make their decision on the president's race, in my view, kind of on pocketbook issues, where they usually are. they're going to look at inflation and looking at the southern border. >> right. >> looking at energy costs. so i think that the things are stacking up well. that case, like i said, i think people kind of had already calculated what they -- >> no. what do you think personally? what do you think of the jurors that came to that conclusion? >> honestly based on instructions received from the judge, probably where they were going to land, but i think obviously believe the case shouldn't have been brought in the first place. if the justice department wanted to bring it, the u.s. attorneys office they would have. this is a federal election law jurisdiction and the fact that

this new york, you know, prosecutor was dabbling in it i think -- >> do you think the case against hunter biden should be brought? >> i mean, i think he's obviously going to have to answer to the things he's done as well. i think these cases are all, that's a different, obviously, set of circumstances? >> the reason i raise it, there's a question of which law do we like? right? what's happening politically right now is we have taken political sides on whether -- folks say i want to be about law and order. talked about the border. say, we don't -- we don't like this court. we like this court, not this court. that's become a real issue. you know? >> i think -- again, i'm not a lawyer, but hunter biden's case is a federal case tried in federal court. what they didwith this, obviously, a jurisdiction, got to the office -- >> the federal cases brought against the president? the former president which probably won't be brought before

the election or some of the state, the state cases? >> i think -- obviously the courts will decide that. some of those cases are stronger than others. but nevertheless -- >> does it bother you they're not able to be brought before the election so the american public actually see what the result is, what a jury in the u.s. would think of this? >> i'm a -- i'm not surprised by it honestly. for the most part those types of cases you're going to have legal teams that are going to use and exercise all the options at their disposal, which is what trump's lawyers are doing. i expect them to do that. if those cases end um not happening until after the election, i don't -- >> with hunter biden, i think this is a big disappointment to conservatives in that this is such a -- i don't think anyone else would have been prosecuted for that. it almost looks like --

>> the drug case, you mean? >> yeah. but there's this mountain of other things -- >> the taxes. >> influenced -- >> ten minutes with him. can i just have one minute, andrew? one minute before you're back on the bandwagon. >> go ahead. you see what i'm saying? a diversion from the real stuff -- >> right. >> that involves his father. >> uh-huh. >> i mean i have -- as a guns rights person i don't think drug addicts should -- if anyone needs a gun it's probably someone going in those neighborhoods buying crack. and a stupid case to bring when others are possible to bring. >> ab arguarguably. >> and acquitted, the president -- >> on the trump case -- >> that's the point. >> the trump case you know was misclassifying a crappy mda. bill clinton has five women, at least five, you want me to name

them again? i'll name them if you want. >> he's not on the ballot right now, nothing happened back then. people look bead yoyond that. >> there are federal cases -- >> the one already done. >> not able to be brought. >> the one done was a kangaroo court. why poll numbers have gone up and so have the predicted odds. >> i think if nothing else from the american people, what they want to have is confidence and trust that our judicial and legal system. >> they don't have it right now, that's the issue here. it smells of and is tainted by politics. >> he ran on getting -- that's a -- >> hunter biden -- i don't understand. >> i said i wouldn't bring the hunter biden, bring the other stuff about the big guy and the 10% and millions of dollars from china, millions dollars from bur burisma. >> that's coming. >> a more compelling case. >> senator, ask you while here. you are running for leadership

position in the senate to be head of your party there. haven't seen that. mcconnell's been there since 2007 as leader. what would you do differently? what would you prioritize in the senate if you were leading up colleague there's? >> right now chuck schumer runs the senate. under his leadership it's a place where not much gets done and where individual senators pretty much have given up rights to have votes on amendments or anything else. he pulls everything up. democrat leadership is very hierarchical. it's a top-down-type management style and i think there's nothing else, empowering individual senators allowing committees to work. when bills come to the floor open up the process under regular order allow people to offer amendments. that's what we're supposed to be there to do. always transitions. it's a natural pivot. a new generation of leadership needs to emerge. senator mcconnell has a tremendous record of accomplishment as a leader. look at the supreme court.

a lot of people across the country, at least those who support us, believe that that is a legacy issue for him. but he's moving on. that means we need somebody to replace him and i think i can do that. >> if it's a bust in june for president biden, will there be someone else? a non-zero chance biden is not the nominee? >> as you know, and you probably all, we speculate what might or might not happen. i think that debate is going to be a make or break moment for biden. >> what would happen if a break moment? >> i mean, if he does well, then he probably calms the fears of a lot of democrats around this country, if he doesn't do well. >> then they start looking -- look at plan b. >> what's plan b.j? >> a hard time going around kamala harris but have to if they want to win. >> a border question. you voted against the latest bill on the border. >> uh-huh. >> how much of that, and a lot

of people say the republicans voted against that are voting against that so they can leave this issue open in part to help galvanize the right, if you will, to vote for trump? meaning, had that bill gone and been passed and there was bipartisan support for it, that this debate would be a different debate today? >> i think that the reason i voted against it, in my view, wasn't that. the components of it. we tried, our folks tried to negotiate the best deal possible, but remember you're dealing with a divided congress. a democrat senate and democrat president. so the folks in the lead negotiating this in the end the deal wasn't quite good enough. the democrats kept insisting that you normalize 4,000 to 5,000 a day. that's a huge annual number. i think in the end it just wasn't -- it wasn't something -- >> what number were you willing -- perfection and the goods. what's the number you're accepting of? >> i think enforce the law. first off, you know, the asylum

laws need changed and were willing to negotiate on some of that, but the way the parole had been misused. remain in mexico policy catch and release. things we believe, if they just enforced the law. the president has all authority to do this. this happen on his watch. this immigration, border crisis happened on the president's watch but not just happened. engineered orchestrated by policy moves and changes made when he took office. >> i don't -- still got -- no. it's just you still got -- in temples of issues and trump versus biden on immigration. talk about it. democrats, the way that they're, i don't know what you -- demagoguing it right now. talk about that it's a 25-point -- between trump and biden. >> yes. >> people know exactly what happened.

all the exec utive orders reversed. how many people in the last three years? >> almost 10 million. >> how many -- >> a fraction. >> what i mean. it's there for -- >> it's the policies. honestly, why i believe that if trump wins and we get majority in the senate there are things obviously, nice to legislate, codify changes. wouldn't have revolving door between administrations but a lot of things trump can fix on the border soon as he takes office. somebody will get taken to court -- >> no value in signing this bill now and then potentially incrementally fixing other aspects of it later if in fact you have that opportunity? >> you could make that argument. then i think once again, once you have codified and locked in a certain number you're comfortable with, there's a lot of people who were very uncomfortable with that kind of a number and what that meant. con condoning -- >> as a result, much worse now and say, tell the world how

terrible. >> talking 5,000 a day, almost 2 million people a year. just way too many. i think, again, the belief was, honestly, part of the problem in the first place. that a lot of our folks believed that even if we passed a strong law biden wouldn't enforce it because he's not enforcing the laws currently on the book. that is a -- >> if you believe that, then, now not worth doing anything? i don't understand. that's why -- it's political. >> enforce current laws, he said. >> worth doing somebody when you have a president who will enforce it. hopefully there is something we can do legislatively. a lot of this corrected by executive action and will be when the president changes. >> who's your pick for replacing kamala? >> who's the pick? >> your pick. >> yours truly. >> what i thought. >> thank you for coming in. >> thanks. >> vote for yourself. you should. >> it's a secret ballot election so i can. when we come back, roaring

kitty causing an upratheoar fri afternoon failing to strike a rally. are investors sticking with the stock this time around? we will get to that question next right here on "squawk box." (subway noises)

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livestream friday brought renewed attention to gamestop. are they sticking with the stock this time? kate rooney joins us with more. hi, kate. >> good morning. yes, sirens individual investors aren't as committed to the gamestop trade if you compare what's going on with the meme stock's heyday three years ago. one point from vander research highlights what it calls yo-yo-like inflows. return of keith gill, a/k/a roaring kitty to social media and his livestream last week

inflows haven't been as steady. for example, one day last week saw 18 million inflow. next day just 3 million into gamestop. three years ago daily inflows about five times what we saw last week. then as and havea put vana put it, paper hands rather than the aclammed diamond hands. nickname for those who hold on to a stock without plans to sell. also nome retail trading. 11% turnover a proxy for trading activity from individuals. above 15%, if you look back three years. front-returning retail efforts and performance data demonstrates it's not turning into the widespread bullish phenomenon for the meme stock cohort. one factor. and deja vu. think about the losses in gamestop. moderators of wall street bets

infamous reddit, poster child for online meme stocks a few years ago saying recently they don't want the stock discussed there at all. bag holding last time. paraphrasing do that elsewhere. good luck roaring kitty, but you're schtick, they put it, and disappearance f'd of retail. back to you. >> kate, thank you very much. watching this closely. when you were, i take it, kate, watching the live stream what were you thinking about it went through? unusual, to say the least. it was unusual. it was unusual. sort of a bit. exaggerated caricature. showed in a sling, band-aids, drinking a beer. hard to take it seriously in terms of analysis but he says i'm not a reasonable person. this is a yolo trade. doing this sort of for the

fanfare and attention, seems. that seems to be the whole point of this. he is trading here, putting on a massive trade. i would say for attention and the sheer awe effect of the drawer. stake grown into the hundreds of millions. a little to take seriously in terms of the dollar signs. >> it was a lot. looking and it was a 38 gamestop as saying this on friday. this morning up from where it closed friday 2833. anyway, thank you. kate rooney. for more on what regulators may look at when it comes to trades if game stocks, served senior counsel in enforcement division of the s.e.c. and thank you for being with us today. a lot of questions about what he might say on friday, and whether or not that would land him in hot water. from what i saw, didn't seem to be anything that would necessarily be a big red flag for regulators, but what did you think?

>> agreed. he's a smart guy. he has many experience and knows exactly. consciousness. not telling people what to do, discussing his personal opinion. that doesn't give regulators rigel room what they want to do hashed to label him a market ma up i nipulater. certainly seemed to lay out and show what he was holding. showed would have lost quite a lot of ground just as the stock went down, too. >> if anything, what he's doing now is setting up a perfect defense for a market manipulation. giving regulators everything that he would use in his defense, if they brought up a market manipulation. ultimately what they're trying to do, i think, ban him. a very high bar to reach. >> ban him from ever being able to trade again? >> i think so. that would be the only outcome. right? if he was charged with market

manipulation, seeking a lifetime ban. try to get him out of the market completely. you see what e-trade is doing. they're unhappy. however, are getting the best press they've ever gotten there. their information is on every single thing he posts. so they should be happy right now, in a good position as well. >> i didn't think about that. this is free advertising whether they like it or not. what do you just think about the retail movement in general? something we saw, a huge riseup during the pandemic. still a lot of active retail trading. look, on wall street people always said they want people involved in trading. what do you think of this brand of retail trading? >> fantastic. the first time individual investors are out there, out in front. learning from people. meme stocks? could be an s.e.c. rule on meme stocks. don't like that. retail investors are finally getting into the market, understanding what's going on opinion trading their own money. great for the msarket.

wall streets want to beat retail, they're doing it now. wall street is a game and now regular investors are having fun, too. >> having fun and i guess part of it is just getting people activelyive involved. what's the right way to go about this? you don't want retail holding the bag if a big movement not based on fundamentals and things that are tossed around? people thought wall street was rigged for years and years and the retail investors could never win? >> true. here right now with these types of meme stocks, keith gill particularly. everything is public. right? perfect information makes perfect trades. that's the baseline of economics. the more retail investors have actual information the better decisions they can make. right now we're seeing retail investors act very differently from how they did back in 2021. also seeing the street act very differently. reacting to keith gill. reacting to the positions he's showing he's holding and affirming he's holding. what the market is supposed to do.

>> how much of it, though, is different than what day traders were back in the late '90s, early 2000s? it's one thing to be an investor. another to be a trader and a lot harder to be a trader whether a pro or whether you're a retail investor. >> right. always winners and losers. day trading is one. highest risk positions you can take. that doesn't mean retail should be banned from doing it. day traders have been banned. right? they know how to manipulate the market, how to affect a short squeeze. i think if what they're trying to do, if regulators are looking at what keith gill and other meme stock creators are doing, what they're trying to do is find a rule that doesn't exist right now to control the market. we don't want retail investors holding the bag but they have perfect information what could or could not happen with this particular stock. >> thank you. appreciate your time today. coming up, bidenomics versus

the trump economy on the campaign trail. steve moore senior economic advisor to the trump 2024 presidential campaign and former council of eck nodices advisor jason furman. next on "squawk box" that's coming right back.

wow. have we talked policy? really don't, identity politics. joining us to debate the trump and biden economy and future plans. steve moore senior economic advisor to the trump 2024 presidential campaign. co-founder of the committee to unleash prosperity. also, former council of em nomics professor at harvard school of government and, wow, jason furman. break new ground here, steve. if trump were to regain the presidency, former president trump, what are some of the planks of his plan? seeing something about even further cuts for corporate taxes? is that really being considered?

>> hey, joe. good to be with you, and good to be with jason as well. look, i think there's no question the top priority will be to make sure that those tax cuts that larry kudlow and others helped put together with trump and we did it. controversy whether it would work and clearly it did. we had a boom in investment. by the way, look at the numbers, joe. corporate tax revenues have almost doubled since we cut the tax rate. i think a lab says that will happen. it's not just taxes. i think there's no question we're going to have a very pro-american energy policy. head back to being energy independent again. drill for oil. use our clean coal, use our natural gas to lessen the impact that countries like iran and russia and china have over the world economy. and then finally, you know, we want to get americans back to work.

we want policies that could actually help people get back into jobs. not just jobs. but jobs that pay well. you know, when you've got a -- joe, a lot of families today, middle-class families aren't able to afford to go to mcdonald's, for goodness sakes. a four-year agenda that's crushed middle-class families. >> jason, certain things you probably wouldn't disagree with, i guess, there, but things you probably would like to push back on that steve just said. what would be different if the president wins re-election? >> yeah. i mean, steve left out the biggest tax increase that donald trump is proposing. in fact, it's the only very e explicitly worked out part of his platform. 10% tax on all imports and 60% tax on everything coming from china. i was not a fan of the latest

round of tariffs that president biden proposed. let's put perspective on them. on $18 billion on imports. we import $4 trillion worth of stuff. you're talking about 200 times the scope of what the recent biden tariffs were. for a typical family, you're talking, an extra $1,700 of costs. and then you add that to the other inflationary parts of the agenda. advisers to president trump saying he would fire jay powell within the first 100 days. that would set up a massive, massive amount of uncertainty, court cases and the like. let's say he doesn't fire him in the first 100 days but tweets at him saying he's a worse enemy than president xi what he did the last time president. one of the things that president biden has done i really respect has been to respect and

strengthen the independence of the fed. even while it was raising rates rapidly. what happens if that comes to an end? i think a lot of peril here, a lot of it can be expressed especially in terms of inflation and tax increases on middle-class families. >> jason, do you -- i -- i think i asked about the capital gains increase and you really weren't that anti-capital gains, that president biden was talking about, and what about the taxing unrealized gains? both of those, to many people, those are both sort of anathema to any normal economic thinking. do you -- are you, do you go along with both of those ideas? >> i mean, they're both way better than any of the tariffs we've just been talking about, joe, but, look. a lot of economic logic to taxes unrealized gains. one of the problems now with the

capital gains system is it locks in your gains. it dissuedes you from selling because you want to hold until late whir you get a lower rate. that is a proposal that applies to a relatively small slice of people. you know, we could argue what the right rate of tax income capital is and i'm open to a variety of things. in fact, i'd like to reform the tax code. so we had permanent and more investment for business going forward but we need to raise revenue somehow. >> what about the tariff issue, steve? >> look, on the tariffs, i worked with trump and his first administration. we talked a lot about tariffs. interesting. because when i talk to trump about this over the years he's always said, steve, i use tariffs as weapon. i'm a free-trade guy i don't

like tariffs but it is an absolute truth trump used the threat of tariffs highly effectively in his first term. it was the threat of tariffs that got the european nations to pay their note ato dues. helped secure the border. it was -- standing toe-to-toe with president xi saying i'm going to slap you with a 40% tariff until you start playing by the rules and stop stealing property. if you look at the tariffs from that were implied by trump versus the tariffs applied to biden, biden actually has higher tariffs than trump does. come on. that isn't kind of a fair thing. one other point. this capital gains issue you brought up is incredibly important to investors. most of the people watching the show watch it because you're investing your money or investing other people's money. this would be an economic

cyanide pill to the u.s. economy. he's talking about -- by the way, give biden credit. he's telling people these crazy things he want to do like tax on unrealized gains, which has nerve every been done before in the history of the country. people would have to sell the farm to pay the taxes, and the capital gains tax would go up in the united states to roughly the highest in the world. higher than china. higher than russia. higher than europe. how in the world is the united states going to compete with those high rates? >> steve, you're also -- mentioned a report about what would have been added to gdp if a lot of the fossil fuel, executive order, whatever you want -- i think that the people, democrats would say, we've never been producing as much oil and -- i mean, i don't know why they'd admit that, because that was supposedly the -- they didn't really want record production of oil and gas, but

that -- in fact, that is what happened. is that in spite ofed biden? how could it have been better 250 more? how much? >> $200, $250 billion increased oil over the last three years if we stuck with a very pro-drilling policy. how are we near all-time record of oil production? everyone knows we have a shale revolution that caused incredible productivity improvements. the point when trump was president, when he left office we were energy independent, producing about 12.5 billion barrel as day. the price of oil only $50 or $60 a barrel. today closer to $70, $80 a barrel. obviously when the price goes up, you would normally see a massive increase in supply. that hasn't happened under biden. why hasn't it happened? because what was the first thing

he did when he came in office? killed the keystone pipeline. a week or two took off nearly a million acres of prime oil and gas line land off of line in alaska. i mean, i could go on and on and on with these things. when you've god a president who wants to destroy an industry, what biden has said to the american people. i want to destroy the american oil and gas industry, that tells people, don't invest in the industry. i can't think of any industry that would do better if trump wins than oil and gas. and coal, by the way. we should be producing more clean coal as well. >> what do you think, jason? >> first of all, talk about things like the so-called inflation reduction act. and the investments in clean energy. those are investments that big oil companies are out there defending, because they're making a lot of clean investments as well. their facing a lot of uncertainty in terms of those investments going forward, if president trump came back into

office, and fulfilled his promise to get rid of those subsidies for clean energy. one of the really important industries that we have in america right now. second of all, joe, you went through it chapter and verse, biggest o'producer in the orders. net oil exporter at this point in time and basically are energy independent in that sense. but you're never energy independent from global events. events happen around the world. and they are going to affect the price of oil here. that's true no matter how much oil we produce. you can never insulate yourself from the global price. i do want to go back to the tariffs because the main thing that president trump tried to negotiate was an agreement that china would buy more of our exports. and they're not buying more of our exports. they didn't keep that that agreement when president trump was in office. haven't kept that agreement when president biden was in office. moreover, i have no idea what trump is trying to accomplish with a 10% tariff on every

single import coming from every single country in the world. what exactly are we trying to do in terms of leverage? the one thing that steve said i agree with is that, yeah. disappointed that president biden kept that first round of trump tariffs, but added a little on top of them, but all of that is minuscule, 1.02 what we're talking about in a trump term. >> and steve's backdrop, i don't know, man. talking about thing not listening looking at a backdrop. yours, get something like that, jason. just -- did you see it? know what i'm saying? it's better than -- remember when you were locked in that pod? >> i know, yeah. >> this is better than that, but look. got the -- just the gravitas. >> he's just waiting to go in

there and put the tariffs in. you can see it happening. >> one of those offices will be open. do it again sometime. both come back? do it together again? seem to like each other okay. nice to see you. >> absolutely. >> great. coming up, eli lilly's experimental alzheimer's discussionorhe dg f truand what it means for the stock next. "squawk box" returns after this. every shot is an opportunity. and success requires drive, resilience,

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welcome back to "squawk box." today the food and drug administration's advisor set to discuss and vote on the ricks and benefits of eli lilly experimental alzheimer drug for insights on all this, here, the health care equity strategist and also securities. good morning. >> good morning. >> what do you think? will we see this get approved? >> i think so. a long time coming and

alzheimer's at the precipice of approval. main point of the meeting to get everyone on the nuances. i think all said and done it gets approved. >> when you look at results of the trial do you think it's on the margins? do you think it's a game-changer? what is your real view here? >> i don't think it's a game changer at all. i think we have one drug on the market that's doing 30 to $40 million a quarter, which is really not much from biogen and their partner. i think this is a nice additional therapy. we're probably still in the infancy stages of getting a treatment that works really well for patients to the point where they're excited, the physician community is excited. we just did a neuroscience panel a couple weeks ago, and the physician community up there was not all that excited about these current treatments, but i think we're at least getting closer. >> so, that's the question. if the doctors are not excited about it, who's the use case for? >> i think the problem is, like,

you got to have the patient come in or present with symptoms at a stage in which the trugdrugs ar going to work. this is mild to moderate. in some cases, you're threading the needle and the amount of times you need to keep coming back for therapy is an issue. for biogen, it's twice a month. for lilly, it's once a month. i think getting patients to some sort of infusion center is also an issue. >> when you think on the stock, you think this is not a mover? >> i don't think it's a big mover. the stock seems to be -- it's a complete monster, just a real anomaly in health care. $800 billion company. >> this is a tiny little -- >> it's a small deal for the stock. i think a full approval, stock is up a decent amount, but i feel like even if it's a limited label, maybe flat to down small. >> but if we are getting closer to something people are excited about, is this the building block? i'm trying to compare this with technology. >> it's a piece in "the journal" today. they compare it to sidney farber discovering some horrible cancer

that was so toxic to people, turned into chemotherapy and the accepted -- this might be the very beginning. >> if you're behind on a.i., you can't catch up. is it the same sort of thing with the alzheimer's drugs? >> there are a bunch of biotech companies pursuing it. >> is it the same thing where you can't make it up, can't build off somebody else's base that they've built? or is this a different story? >> i think this might be a little bit easier than a.i. or even obesity, because you've got these powerhouses that are -- have kind of captured the market and have already dominated. this, less so. there really isn't a -- >> an alzheimer's advance, not a cure-all. promises progress, the fda shouldn't hold out for perfection, and then they say, this is the beginning. this is the beginning. >> agree. things are so few -- >> is lilly in the driver's seat? or we're going to get everybody? >> i think biogen is currently

in the driver's seat. i don't believe their lead is significant. if this drug gets approved over the near term, you're going to have two therapies now approved, and i think the -- what i'm kind of looking forward to is if they can get these drugs into better modalities like regular injections where you can do at home. >> they're talking about it being a cocktail. this might not be the cure-all, but it may be used with other things that work on the underlying -- >> agree. i think that's what we'll see here. >> okay. jack, thank you. nice to see you. up next, a final check on thmaete rks as we get ready for the opening bell on wall street. "squawk box" will be right back. s with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab.

let's take a look at the markets, showing us now at the opening bell, ryan detrick, chief market strategist at carson group. people thought maybe a reversion to the mean this year. so far, so good for 2024. more to come in the second half, ryan? >> yeah, joe, good morning. thank you, and go, cincinnati reds. as hot as the reds are, the market is just as hot. think about it. may is usually not that great, and we just had a really good may, which i think people need to know, joe. that could be a signal. when you gain more than 4% on the s&p in may like we just did,

june is higher 8 out of 10 times, and the rest of the year is up. that's one signal, i get it, but we're still seeing clues. i've been coming on for a long time saying this is a bull market. we're not changing our tune. we think the second half of the year is going to be pretty darn good. >> the s&p next year is expected, in your view, to earn what, ryan? >> yeah, well, this year, they're expected to gain 11% right now. it could gain about a percent or two more and then you go into 2025, and it's expected to be a low double digits there. we think a surprise can happen. people keep doubting this market, but again, what have we seen? just last week, joe, on a pretty good upside, what happened? put to call ratios go higher. that kindling is still there overall for summer rally. these three months, june, july, august, in an election year, or last i checked, we areright now, usually pretty strong.

>> you'd prefer earnings continue to rise, or you'd prefer a little bit of softness that allows the fed to cut? or you'd like both? >> wouldn't we like both? think about it, though. we're seeing that. we're seeing the softness. just last week, look at the isms, manufacturing and services, both prices paid came down. unit labor cost prices came down. we're seeing positives, and the underlying pinnings of this strong bull market and economy we're seeing, we don't see any major cracks. overall, earnings are strong, inflation is coming back. we think the first cut will be in september and one more in november from the fed. >> there are people that say it's still -- the breadth has not expanded enough and you think that the soldiers come to meet the generals? you're not worried this market's been propped up by nvidia and magnificent seven? >> that's a great point. just two weeks ago, across the board, we were hitting new

all-time highs or 52-week highs in various advance decline lines, so we would like small caps and mid caps to participate more, but we think that's the case. we think that's probably going to happen, and i hope other guests have pointed this out, but look at pe multiples. small caps relative to large caps are as cheap as they've been since the 1990s. we think small and mid caps do well the second half of the year as things do overall expand. >> all right. ryan, we've got less than a minute left. we appreciate it. we're going to take a quick look around the markets before we go, ryan. thanks. >> let's do that right now. take a look at the futures. when we started the show three hours ago, you saw that the dow was down by over 120 points. it's improved a little bit, but the dow is still indicated off by about 80 points this morning. s&p futures, down by 11, the nasdaq inldicated off by about 45, and you have treasury yields, which picked up significantly on friday. we had been below 4.3% on the two-year but we got the jobs

numbers that were stronger than anticipated and you see the ten-year at 4.46% this morning. the two-year is at 4.88%. oil prices have been hovering around $80. now it's well below that, actually, $76.13. that does it for us today. we hope you join us right back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. we set the table for a big week. cpi, fed decision, tesla's annual meeting, futures getting dinged a bit by higher yields in europe after sunday's parliamentary elections. our road map going to begin with this big week on the street. investors preparing for that big batch of inflation data. apple holding its long-awaited worldwide developers conference today, expected to unveil