and wendy's. jack-in-the-box off the lows of earlier this morning, it was down 5%. back to you. >> thanks, frank down by 1.7% now we'll see you later. quick final check on the markets before handing over to our friends on "squawk on the street." the dow would open down 66 points nasdaq up 137. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right now. good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchanges. futures are mixed, off the early lows as we got the surprise drop in producer prices down .2%, and jobless claims spiked at the highest level since august ten year drops to 4.25 our road map begins with fed expectations holding rates steady now the surprise on wholesale

prices >> we are monitoring the big vote on elon musk's pay package. he claims shareholders voted in favor of that would around $46 billion now pay package. and broadcom's big beat, the tech giant surging, double digits in the premarket, you heard frank holland talking about it and the ten for one stock split. >> let's begin with this market reaction to the tamer than expected ppi number, jim that's with claims and cpi, three dovish prints in a couple of days. >> we're going to hear a lot about mortgage rates coming down and what it will mean. i think it is difficult to figure out because there is just such demand for housing. doesn't matter what, but obvious mortgages will be more abundant. what i'm focused on is what i think fed powell is really saying it is not -- yeah, sure, we got surprised by the cpi, but that doesn't mean anything. we have to get surprised repeatedly there is another thing going on. i think powell is sensitive that

america wants everything rolled back to 2019, 2020 that's hard. we can't get it rolled back that far. there is so many issues in this economy to make it so people still feel like that inflation is not beaten. not going to be one month. one month, maybe one year before you really feel like inflation is beaten. >> all right but do you have to wait? >> no, but i don't like, well, now it is going to be september. every one of these have been wrong. at a certain point, i say, these are wrong constantly, i'm not going to, like, buy -- how many times in life are we willing to be wrong and say, i never -- remember the eagles, we went 1 for 6, okay, in the last -- every single one we said, we're going to win, we're going to win, we're going to win. by the third one, i'm, like, will you give me a break in this, we allow people to be wrong constantly. >> since the pandemic, you're right. inflation is up 21%. >> so much. >> wages are up 22%. >> right >> roll back wages too

>> well, no, because the minimum wage snuck up. i don't think we'll do that. but i do think that, look, america is -- we're in an election this year everyone talks about inflation being the reason we may act as if inflation doesn't feel big but that's because i'll say it, we make a lot of money >> speak for yourself there. >> i knew he would make light of that we are two countries if you don't think we're two countries, you haven't studied your marks in thesis lately. good number norfor the markets h the cpi. 2019 and how much the prices are up for the banks, you point to a

list of things that are all down >> those are all the things that are going the way of the fed there are a lot of things going the way of the fed they have to do with the price of grain there are variables. the price of grain is not -- that's not anything that powell controls the price of grain fell. a you talk to tyson, look, you know, i would say, geez, you are charging a lot we charged whatever the price is that went the fed's way. we finally got some insurance breaks but i don't think that we're obviously the people in the country that vote, you know, who are polled for voting, all still think this is the biggest issue in this. even though they're making more, they feel like -- they're faced with things that look like they're more expensive, that they buy every week. gasoline, but the main ones, the supermarket. no win there win versus last year, but that isn't what drives people >> b of a, a good note today,

asking why things don't feel great. even though the macro is okay. and earnings are accelerating. they point to the jarring nature of coming out of a record low interest rate environment. and then you got these multiple shocks of the great financial crisis you got covid, wars. >> people are exhausted. >> and that in savita's view has created this ultra defensive positioning and secular growth. >> we'll talk about broadcom, just unbelievable. but there is a really interesting piece and it has 100x, i don't know if you read the new stuff that goldman has that they're connected with an outfit that does proprietary analysis and it is very, very good. very long report but it is called 100x. have you seen it they're really good. i had them on. robert pace used to be at goldman. the chart that gets me is not stocks brands with low income the low income, companies with

exposure to low income, people aren't buying kfc. they're not buying the b baconatoor they're out of reach you see the things that went up in price over and over and over again in four years, america is saying, listen, we don't have that kind of money we're going to stay home talking about the money for a baconator. a bucket of chicken. i like dark meat. >> you do? >> it is very good >> ironic that we're talking about the lower cohort and tesla and the elon musk pay vote tesla's annual meeting is set to begin this afternoon musk does claim that the preliminary results show shareholders backing the company's plan to incorporate in texas. he says on x, quote, boeth resolutions are passing by wide margins. thank you for support. here is a look at the vote chart that musk included in his post, jim. >> yeah. >> the point about --

>> trying to make sense of this chart. >> if you can't make sense of that chart, i don't know if you should be on air that's easy. x and y. >> what is the orange? is that -- is that z >> this is one of those things where a chicago election, do you know the vote before it happens? >> i'm trying to get confirmation of a number of obvious -- >> musk is out there telling -- >> there is a couple of reasons why. elon sometimes is not always the most trusted narrator. and, b, you can change your vote right up until the meeting begins you can -- it is not like an election in the traditional sense of a political election where you make -- you cast your vote and you're done you can change your vote you can pull your -- and change it just want to be certain that that's the case. we said yesterday that the index

funds were the key they remain the key and there is some reporting out there, though i haven't seen it confirmed that vanguard and blackrock may have gone tesla and/or musk's way if that's the case, then, yes. >> so to be completely -- >> little doubt they will have prevailed because they were the key, as i said yesterday, and there was an expectation they were listening, as i said, because many thought well, they're going to vote the same way they did six years ago, which was against. but maybe that was not the case. and, again -- >> the agencies have reached their peak, david? >> what -- >> the iss >> you're pointing out that the proxy advisory firms advised against it, and what influence do they have i think there is -- they have less influence than they once did. but there arestill -- there ar still funds out there that vote with them, or even have another chart. they vote with the proxy adviser. they don't have the resources to spend on those >> thank you that's what i'm getting at it is expensive to have those people who say, wait a second,

let's analyze this >> i'm just trying to -- i'm looking at some texts here to see. >> maybe the celtics are going to win it. i don't know what you're talking about. >> we'll get the final vote later today, guys. it does look -- i'm being told by somebody it does look like both were approved but, again, we got to wait in some ways because you can poll, but it does appear that way. they have to go back to the delaware judge and get her to recognize the ratified vote. >> okay. >> do you think it was in the bag long before we realized? i mean, these big institutions, they don't just make up their mind -- >> i would love to understand exactly what was behind their thinking or why. we have gone through it many times. we have talked about this often. they had a contract, they had something already approved by 73% of the shareholders at the time yes, it was struck down by a delaware judge who said it was not his compensation was not arrived at by an independent

board. but he hit targets that nobody ever thought he would. and we had any number of disparate voices on our air, interesting listening to those who are saying no way, and others are, like, of course. >> i wonder whether delaware, musk is a pioneer. but i think a lot of people feel there is rogue chancellors there. >> well, catherine mccormick, she presided over the twitter trial and then was the one who also decided that it was essentially unlawful, the way it was arrived at by the board, saying they were not independent. reincorporating texas is going to get them out of delaware. so, but that said, this is being done under -- so they need to go back to her under delaware, what they're trying to do with their shareholders, you have to give them kudos for that. >> but, look, this is -- >> guys, real briefly, we're talking about what is worth $46 billion now, he might have to sell stock to pay the taxes on

it at some point he's got a five-year hold, but the numbers are to your point about being not being able to afford their basket of chicken, larry ellison yesterday, didn't end up 17, because the stock was not up quite as much as when i was here, he's got 1.1 plus billion shares of oracle these numbers are -- we have never seen anything like them. the accretion of value to such a small group of people. >> i would say that in 1905 russia we saw it >> did we? did we anything that really approaches this this is like number seven on the richest people list. musk is, what, probably number two right now. >> as of yesterday, bezos was first. >> bezos, arnault, musk. >> the countries that do not have this many people -- this many families that are that more rich than everybody else ever. i mean, go back to -- jpmorgan was rich >> a billion dollars, we couldn't figure out how to spend a billion dollars. maybe we could try

>> large lottery and this would be like winning a lottery every day for six months. >> yeah. and then you look at 130 billion, 140, $150 billion fortunes. >> are you saying we have to -- >> no. i'm not in any way in favor of a wealth tax or any of that stuff. >> yellen's point this morning, she's against a global wealth tax, but maybe it is time to look at the effective rate on their income or their wealth >> it is just -- i mean -- >> what is the matter with that? johnny carson was the highest taxed payer and they took him up to 75. >> it was a w-2. you don't want to be a w-2 you want do it like this. >> he's more talented than any of these people. more talented than any of the people making a lot of money right now. >> i'm just marveling at the numbers themselves not necessarily saying that these are people that founded incredible businesses, but so much value, i mean, it gets back -- maybe to the antitrust policy. >> do you want to change the name to peasantry and make kulik

and have oligarch? what are you saying? >> i'm all about free markets and capitalism and transparency. i'm saying the numbers are really big that's all sometimes we don't -- sometimes we just say 46 billion and then we don't even -- the number is inconceivable, that kind of wealth. >> all right >> that's all. >> okay. how about that much money? >> meantime, guys, tesla is going to charge more for the model 3. >> perfect. >> to make up for the tariffs. >> byd snuck in at the low end 17%. byd is the luckiest state-sponsored entity in the world. >> and morgan stanley on gm today, best oem performance of the year and he thinks a lot of that, maybe all of it, affected the buyback. >> well. >> buybacks. >> if you compare that to the -- to the lack of a buyback from the ford family, who seems to just want to clip the dividend there, right, david?

ford's got no -- if they had a buyback, they would no longer be the cheapest stock in the s&p 500. >> i can't figure out where you are on ford anymore. you're a reluctant owner. >> i'm a reluctant owner not unlike estee lauder. >> yeah. that one too nothing like you were on boeing, then you blamed me when you finally got rid of it. >> you're on the cusp of -- you've been on the cusp of disney, starbucks, el. >> i'll go to every one of those. i left the f off of el, that was the mistake. i meant to buy elf, but i bought el david, that was your fault you distracted me. >> i did i did. i take full responsibility for any mistakes he makes. >> meant to buy elf, sorry, guys >> meant to be elf i said cbs, not cvs. >> you don't want either one of those. when we come back, broadcom riding the a.i. rally.

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do it all on the network made for streaming, and bring on the good stuff. broadcom is surging, on track to open at a record high, raising revenue guidance, posting a quarterly beat results were driven by a.i. demand and vm ware the company announces a 10 for 1 split following a similar move by nvidia. i had to think back to what was said in hawk we trust. >> we go back and forth. that's great this is one that david selected as a huge position for me in the travel trust thank you, david. >> you're welcome. >> so broadcom, this was really exactly like that we heard from oracle, okay this is just the buildout, the buildout, the buildout at some point, maybe it peaks, but right now the numbers just keep growing and hawk tan is a tough guy, bought vm ware, making that so that it works. very minimal buyback

he used to do a big wbuyback. i say, listen, if you've buying nvidia, keep buying. it is an nvidia play it is also you can argue a dip >> goldman sachs says we envision secular growth in the a.i. semiconductor business, ie custom accelerators and high speed networking chips coupled with revenue and cost synergies associated with vm ware, the acquisition of that driving positive revisions to eps and free cash flow. >> yeah. and, look, there is so many positive notes in this thing hoch is a tough guy. he called the bottom in servers. >> he's getting cell phone. >> big north american client, which he did not mention this time, could be placing orders, obviously, i'm talking about apple. i'm allowed to mention the name. he's not in q2, we saw a bottom in service storage. >> this thing is going to exceed

$700 billion market value. it was below 7, but it is going to be up 14%. >> you got to look at the plumbing this is a plumbing story it is a plumbing story, it is a risk to networks, broadcom, web, you could also argue that obviously there is a moment here where nvidia -- someone asks whether nvidia is going to compete -- hock says absolutely not. vm ware is starting to pay off, not big yet. overall, it ismirrors provided anybody else who is providing plumbing to the data center. you said something at the top of the show, people aren't buying other than the truly secular close stories. the data center remains number one, even as many people don't want it to be anymore, because it seems tired and expensive >> b of a takes broadcom to 2,000. did say, we believe the bottom is in, to your point >> yes >> and i do like ben wrights who

says forget about it. >> study the data center, study everything that goes into the data center, study who supplies power to the data center, study who builds the data center, study who owns the data center figure it all out. >> there is eaton, dover -- >> what's going in. >> broadcom. >> that's becoming a huge question mark. >> constellation energy and yesterday pcg said that. >> and whether we're going into surges of nuclear power. >> ten-year contracts soon between liquefied natural -- natural gas companies and data centers. it will cause a surge in nuclear power because the power is going to grow 6% i had patty poppy on last night, from pg&e in san francisco, the amount of -- the amount of power that they need i mean, it is one of the great growth stories of our time and those take seven or eight years to build and everybody wants to know, hock puts on a clinic, he puts

on a clinic about what is growing here and get out of the way anyone who is short nvidia i sent them a notice for their funeral a thousand times i don't know, maybe it is their vampire story. >> cramer's mad dash in a moment countdown to the opening bell. one more look at the premarket on this thursday as we got some other stuff on deck including a long bond auction, fed speak resumes. talk about it in a minute.

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take a look at the ten-year, got to 4.24 roughly this morning after that soft ppi number coming off of the 4.7 in late april. we have william speaking today and as we said, 30-year bond auction, a pretty good week for auctions so far. opening bell coming up in a few moments. don't forget, catch us anytime, anywhere, listen to and follow eng llodsttrt" the see opinbe pca

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income alternatives and responsible investing. let's squeeze in a mad dash before we get an opening bell. kimberly-clark. >> if you think things are slow, inflation is getting more under control, if you like what the fed said the second day, you

might be interested in this incredibly good upgrade by bank of america this is a sell to a buy for kimberly-clark brian spillane was right not to like the stock for a long time and is now playing catch-up, taking share michael shoe, i had him on the show, and i thought he was incredibly impressed about the next level plan. they have gotten rid of a lot of the underperformers. this is one of the safer stock out there. 3.5 yield. if it is taking share, you have a good story and i just wanted to tell people, yes, i would buy some now, and if came off, i would buy some a little bit lower because some people would say this spiked in the last few days sell to a buy, you know it is going to have real impact. >> okay. >> let's get the opening bell at the cnbc real time exchange. big board, it is celia realty

trust at the nasdaq, the pro athlete community. jim, we got above 5400 yesterday. the 600 point milestone so far this year. >> frank is right to ask everybody is it too narrow, is it too narrow. but you started to get some companies that are 700, 800 billion, you know, 100 billion, i mean, when you add 100 billion a day on your stock, it doesn't matter narrow or broad, it starts losing some dividends it just -- these are the stocks that are in control of the market broadcom, it is up $200 today. and that -- the business is better than expected and i just say, until this market broadens out to include j. jill and wendy's, i don't know what i'm supposed to do

until it broadens out, until i start seeing major movements in starbucks, i don't know what i'm supposed to do here. forget the broaden out the companies that aren't doing -- stocks aren't doing well are companies that aren't doing well. >> if the macro is going the fed's way, why wouldn't it broaden out? b of a, the pain trade will be cyclical >> i think the reason why it doesn't broaden out is because each day there is something that happens to another group that is very negative. like, we're still trying to figure out what happened to jpmorgan we have pricing for medicaid that is different given the different states people are looking at for the drug business a l a lot of sectors are challenged and chips are not challenged. >> yesterday we were trying to figure out jpmorgan because it was down while the rest of the big cap large cap banks were up. >> it is a half a trillion so i look at them as being the -- >> and then to your other point, there was weakness and there continues to be weakness in the very early going here in pharma.

>> supposed to wait -- >> pharma down again, j&j. say it again. >> am i supposed to wait for pharma to turn >> you have to buy sectors, if you own lilly, you're incredibly happy this year. >> you can't wait for the sectors that aren't participating to start participating in order to like the market that's an old-fashioned way to look at things before we got this have, have not, the haves have a huge percentage of the market. >> yeah. >> we may think it is not right that nvidia, that this rally has so much of nvidia in it, but i get analysis, listen, wouldn't be hard to get this thing to 5 trillion >> 5 trillion? >> 5 trillion. >> give me a quick on that analysis. >> well, it was actually a sense of how people felt that apple would never get to 3 trillion. it is just one of these things where you got to get over the idea that we're necessarily constrained by these trillion

dollar marks >> now you're sort of alluding to what evercore said last week, it is possible they think nvidia could get to 15% of the s&p. >> yeah. look -- >> doubling of the current percentage. >> i have adobe tonight. a lot of people feel the contest is not canva versus adobe. they feel if you get a full suite of nvidia products, why could you need adobe why do you need salesforce why do you need workday. i think adobe is the gold standard i think this stuff is unbelievable but i'm giving you the wrap, which is that if nvidia is worth all those companies, you add them all up, you get to a level that comes to another trillion. >> steve eisman on "squawk" talking if hardware eats software in a sense. >> that was a great analysis software had a run since 2010. and now this is my wrap. i've been antienterprise software. >> you have. yes, i've been listening. >> you have?

>> i have. you've been talking about the challenges that has and to carl's point, this idea that hardware is going to -- is going to supplant it in some ways. >> did you listen at all to gtc? a lot of software. >> they do training. the training -- you hear, it is like there is -- >> buying more than the chips. >> right yes. there is this moment when ellison just said, how much is he worth again >> 140 billion. >> he knows more than we do. he just says, look, here's the deal, we do training, meaning inference, inference is a commodity now. training is no commodity if it was a commodity, amd stock would -- they don't have the great training facility right now that nvidia has. look, nvidia -- i don't know what to say. where are the sellers? where are the sellers? it is split. you had a huge split this week everybody -- the week of the split is always not great.

it is always not great >> maybe at some point there is real competition i mean, it could happen. it usually does. although i think about it, and it is, like, well, apple is still apple, microsoft under nadella, interesting journal piece today in terms of how they have reinvented themselves again. you do think it is alphabet has been around now as a dominant provider and meta and amazon, yeah, not much has changed. >> people are worried about meta and temu and shein >> worried about it in what way? they're not advertising at the same rate. >> we see apple leapfrogged microsoft. >> here we go again. >> by the way, best two days for apple in 15 years, jim if you strip out covid. >> talking to tim after the -- tim cook after the worldwide

conference, i was kind of -- we were both marveling, like, i was going over some of the research notes, saying, in the press notes, it is ho-hum and is it frustrating? no, they don't need that stuff they just try to figure out what the consumer wants, very novel approach but, again, i keep coming back to the analysts who covered it they cover it -- they tend to view it as being a static company and if you have a cycle, a news cycle and that's the trade, don't trade, and i hate that. >> as a comment of their influence, this notion that they will pay chad gpt in distribution, the presence on the phone is enough of a comp. >> people don't understand that you can have 100 companies that buy a lot of stuff and analysts on wall street would love it there is a group of people called the world and the world -- there is also like, i tried to get them to do china, united states and row, rest of the world, because rest of the

world is a lot of people >> it is >> and the countries, they list all the countries and then google them and they have 200 million people and you add them up, like much bigger than china. >> right. >> but we don't care because all we care about is three cities in china. where they sell -- >> because of that, doesn't even have to actually compensate them other than saying we're giving you the opportunity to be in front of all of these people by the way, apple charges everybody else for being on the app store a lot of money to be in front of people maybe they're getting a good deal. >> i know. far fewer apps being -- the service revenue categories in china are much lower they don't have as many categories they don't have things to choose from there. >> right it is a lot of communist dictatorship, unlike what you were calling for at the beginning of the show, talking about ellison -- >> i was not in any way, shape or form talking about that please don't do that >> i'm trying to pin you down. >> not any of those things you goes home every night and reads marks and engles >> engles -- >> takes you back to your roots.

>> the people as a sack of potatoes pleasantry like talking about people, i don't know, jb simplott, yes >> i can go on and on about engles engles is good marx -- engles is a great writer. >> big piece in the times, 16 cities in china now have companies testing driverless on public roads more impressive than just about any country. >> it is a serious organization, sure saying things have peaked for fossil i look at that number and i just extrapolate that number and say what is happening is china is going electric and that will be the marginal buyer of gasoline and then oil, that's it. >> you're a buyer of -- >> i'm a buyer of the thesis. >> chuck curry was trying to push back this morning. >> mr. copper? good i'll throw him some pennies. >> referring to the projection of by 2030, demand will start to

fall dramatically for oil worldwide because of the rise of not just evs -- >> i don't like the super cycle c copper that is fracking, sand and coal. don't ever say super cycle, ever >> phone, fracking. >> i love ben, he is using the s word when it comes to the phone. but i rebel at the s word. when curry was talking about the copper super cycle, immediately copper went down immediately. >> the s word meaning -- >> the s word, not the -- the s word. >> i'm making sure people understand what you're saying. >> when you pronounce something really long-term, it just doesn't -- you have to be very careful. it gets people too upset that's what you don't want. >> from the large caps to small caps, we were talking consumer dave and busters down 10, that's going to be the lows on the year as comps go negative for q1. >> that's one of the least values ever. i remember putting $25 worth of

quarters in to try to get to -- the claw, you know, like -- >> yeah, the claw. >> i think of toy story, actually >> like, that's for 25 cents >> adds up, jim. >> after a while, people -- the new world does not want to pay 25 cents to try to win a troll doll and not even be able to pick it up then you go, like -- >> a good -- >> he's never been to dave and busters in his life. >> no. i was there. very reluctantly >> there is one on the pier in philadelphia i used to go with my dad two old guys >> you went to dave and busters with your dad? >> walking distance. >> really? not sure where to go after that. >> if you want to stick with leisure -- >> sure. >> this disney agreement with florida and investing a billion over the next --

>> acreage >> testing 100 once again. >> he is >> yeah, it has been -- it hasn't -- it has been marking time, he's marking time. >> marking time for what what is he waiting for by the way, theme parks, they have not pushed -- i could give a less than stellar forecast at that -- i think it was an investment conference. >> normalization came down >> did you mean that and they -- they didn't mean it. >> johnson -- >> no. >> solid cfo >> this thing has been playing off lately, the normalization comment. >> that's k2, more dangerous than ever. >> the normalization content scared people. that was, again, about attendance at the parks, thank you, carl. >> you need a theme park where there are no theme parks and they can take share. >> let me go to paramount because we're taking a look at that, to add a little bit.

the stock is down 5% now really didn't give up much ground yesterday after the retreat late tuesday when we reported, of course, shari redstone's rejection of the deal they have been working on for many, many months. couple of things to update are there other potential buyers that would involve anything like getting a significant consideration at premium to the b holders? no remember sony, apollo, indicated interest in a whole company deal and never really came through, they are still, i'm told, hanging around the hoop, but much more for an nia potential deal if there was a real bid made for national amusements other than the one made by skydance and red bird, would sony try with apollo to potentially participate or do something there or see an opening? maybe. and then would there be some sort of a way to infuse some cash under the balance sheet

perhaps. maybe do it through a convertible preferred, it is not clear to me and i'm not quite sure it is clear to them but did want to share that so, because otherwise, jim, you're talking about a company that has three people running it right now, challenges for its all slinger cable networks, signed a new carriage agreement with charter, we don't have details on but we don't imagine it is particularly strong. has comcast coming up for renegotiation after that, has a leverage ratio i think may exceed that of warner bros. discovery, doesn't have the scale it needs, continues to lose money in direct to consumer with paramount plus. i mean, you know, talking about saving half a billion dollars somehow. i don't -- i don't know. >> the numbers don't add up as you said it just -- they just don't add up. >> if they go this route, come the fall, come the end of the year, we may be focused more so on the balance sheet. >> speaking of paramount, the so-called paramount consent decree for years kept studios

from owning theaters, and now sony alamo is getting a lot of chatter, right not going after a streaming platform, but actual theaters. >> maybe that -- the doctrine -- the doctrine for antitrust has been stood on it head. >> alamo is tiny they feel like there is an opportunity to market in the actual theater for -- live experiences somehow plays into it they have done some -- >> silverware and stuff, i'm trying to watch -- that's an experience experience is not when they kill the person next to you, even if it is a close relative have you ever been to a theater with the people eating and stuff? >> yeah. it is not -- >> i would rather go to a 92 inch screen at home. >> i kind of like -- you like the alamo? >> i've never been to an alamo. >> i say forget the alamo. >> one on the east side where they fed you. >> i'm a fan of the theater experience got to like people, though, you're right >> you put it like that, yeah.

that's pretty much the defining thing for me >> tesla shares up, still hanging, up 6% it does appear we'll wait and see the final tally. if you do take a look at those charts from musk, if they got to the -- the number of shares, it is approaching what, 1.4 billion, i think you have to -- the chart is correct, you have to believe, yeah, grab those, have to believe that they got vanguard and blackrock because the math wouldn't work otherwise. if they got them, they clearly are going to win on comp and potentially as well win on reincorporation. different needs on both. you needed to have whatever was cast they needed to be more vot in favor of the comp plan than against. for texas, 54% of the outstanding. there it is. see how it is approaching 1.4? you don't get to that number without vanguard, blackrock. which is really interesting they chose to go that way

>> vanguard has really -- well, blackrock has unbelievable people when it comes to these issues do you think it gets all the way to larry fink? >> i continually hear larry allows the corporate governance people to do their thing to be -- everybody thinks, it is just larry, but i have heard otherwise. >> i heard the person who did it, this was several years ago, the level of rigor they approach it with, i said i told myself, i would hire them if i were, like, please, larry, let me borrow your people. that's a service that blackrock offers that's how great their analysis was. >> i have heard he lets them do their thing. interesting to get the background here on their thinking in terms of why they were versed and what it was six years ago. >> musk remains someone where you just say, okay, "the wall street journal" puts out a piece that says he does many things that are unethical and it doesn't matter there is one other person in the

country that seems like whatever happens doesn't matter >> who is meeting with gop -- jake sherman of punch bowl saying the house gop members are singing him happy birthday, his birthday is tomorrow. >> oh, fantastic. >> there is a lot of talk about how he's going to peel off some corporate support, jim especially for companies where you can't get hired as a convicted felon, even if you think the charges were ginned up. >> larry kudlow, my old pal from "kudlow and cramer" is down there and i think larry is a very serious economist and still with him in this go round. want to find out who is with him and who is not in this go round. we don't spend a lot of time talking about him or djt i feel like what -- >> we haven't looked at djt. he hasn't taken off this yet, jim. the election hasn't occurred we look at who is going to be involved in positions of significance after the election. >> doing some presumptive analysis one guy's in, he wants to stop

lng in 2028, pause >> how about that bitcoin thing yesterday? i couldn't figure that out what does that mean? >> it means nevada is where -- >> is that where they mine the bitcoin, in nevada >> bitcoin mining country, texas. what are you laughing at >> i see bitcoin everywhere. >> texas it gets more powerful from wind these days >> texas is big on wind. trump is not in favor of wind. i heard him talk about the windmills, the birds >> you're in real estate, maybe if you had one year -- >> the cats kill a lot of birds. a lot of birds. >> that's it i had enough of that. >> crazy cats out there, just wandering killing birds. >> billionaires and cats you're solid you should run for office. >> i love billionaires, really love them. just saying the numbers, the numbers. >> as we go to break,

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taking stock of the splits we've seen the last few days. nvidia, broadcom, now wsm two for one. >> she's great. laura, the last -- she's an example of someone who did raise price during covid, and that the prices held because the quality's perceived to be -- considered to be premium, and not -- less than premium price. the numbers are extraordinary. there's a lot of different elements, but west elm has been fantastic. mostly it's just the digital-first company. it was the first digital retailer. and that continues to be great,

and laura albert continues to be great. i think she's one of the most unheralded executives in all of business. >> heck of a one-year gain there as we see some isolated, really an example in specialty retail. back in a moment . [busy hospital background sounds] this healthcare network uses crowdstrike to defend against cyber attacks and protect patient information. but what if they didn't? [ominous background sounds] this is what it feels like when cyber criminals breach your network. don't risk the health of your business. crowdstrike. we stop breaches.

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jim? >> we have adobe. important. the stock has been a huge underperformer here. and an out performed -- i've got to tell you when you look at the stock, you'll say, wow, what happened? and that's because he's under pricing pressure. a good product, play with it last night, called express. that's a nice competitor. he is still the gold standard. i don't know why people want to give up on it. people are concerned why do we need adobe if we have jensen wang. and it's really not that simple. you need adobe because adobe's the lamborghini of design, and it's a great democratizer. you can't get that with nvidia. can't. >> clearly making a stand on at least that part of the software, jim. >> you can't. i happen to love adobe. i think it's an unbelievably good product. the suites are top end. some people feel it got too expensive. >> jim, we'll see you tonight, "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern

time. when we come back we'll continue to monitor the elon musk pay package vote with the market split, dow down 240. i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot

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good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm saraizen with carl quint nila and doug faber. look at stocks pushing higher. stocks up .1%. it is being led by a number of groups today. what's best -- information technology as usual, up 1.4%. broadcom's the ai winner of the day today. consumer discretionary is also going strong. so are real estate and utilities. those are both groups that benefit from lower rates, and that has been the story. energy's at the bottom of the pack. look at the rates situation. we've had a series of bond-friendly numbers here including today's ppi report. that's helped treasuries rally. the ten-year yield lower again,

4.28%. two-year yield 4.7%. we're 30 minutes here into the trading session. here are three big movers. shares of tesla rallying after elon musk posting on x saying tesla shareholders are set to approve his controversial $56 billion pay package, and a resolution to move the ev makers incorporation to texas. more on this developing story ahead on the show. mentioned broad cam -- broadcom, beating earnings estimates, raising its full-year forecast and announcing a ten-for-one stock split. we'll break down the outlook and where broadcom fits in later this hour. look at shares of williams-sonoma getting a nice pop. announcing a two-for-one stock split effective july 8th. shares up almost 60% this year and up more than 145% in the past one year which is all the more impressive because furniture spending has -- has not been a growth category. it's actually been weak. but laura albers has been

focused on profitability and squeezing higher margins. that's helped shareholders gain confidence in the stock. today, the story in the macro world continue and on the inflation fronts, we got ppi.inflation, it's what's in the pipeline, it's sort of a leading indicator. and another good number, another market-friendly number, fed-friendly number. it was negative which i think was surprising for the markets, dropped by the most this seven months. headline ppi down .2%. the expectation was .1%, and last month, in april, we got a .5% jump. it just shows flipping, good, year over year. core ppi, we look at core always. 2.3% in 2.5%. we're not far from the 2% target if you look at the wholesale inflation rate. the other important point here -- first of all, we should mention 60% of the headline drop really had to do with energy

which was lower on the month. so we can't discount it, 7.1% drop in gasoline prices. that certainly weighed on the overall pricing. there were some important components in there. airline fares, for instance, falling. portfolio management services falling. and that will feed into the pce report which is the fed's preferred gauge which comes out at the end of the month, june 28th. and so all signs, david, are pointing to better numbers for that one which we know from yesterday the fed needs to have a little more confidence before it cuts. >> we do know that. and i'm curious as to your thoughts about now the one cut for the remainder of the year or -- i mean, jim was saying why do we bother at this point? >> with the dots? i agree with the dots. i think the dots are useless. first of all, they're every three months. and they're not meant to be policy. it's just what the folks are forecasting. and powell always gives caveats

around the dots, not to read too much into it. the surprise of yesterday is that in the forecast for how many fed cuts there would be, the median estimate was one. and that was from three in march. and then market was expecting two for the rest of the year. we're talking about 2024 cuts, projections. however, if you look inside those numbers, you know, it's not exactly clearcut. here, i want to make sure i get it right. four policymakers saw no cuts for this year. seven anticipated one reduction this year. and then eight expected two cuts this year. so there were still plenty of folks at the fed that are expecting two cuts this year. it's going to be about inflation. here's what chair powell said, where he did acknowledge the recent progress like yesterday's cpi report but still wants more. >> the most recent inflation readings have been more favorable than earlier in the year, however, and there has been progress toward the

objective. we need more data to bolster our confidence that inflation is moving steadily toward 2%. >> that's up for interpretation. more good data and how long it's going to take. my take is that the market closed yesterday still pricing in two cuts for the year. it wasn't as confident as it was earlier in the morning about two cuts. >> uh-huh. >> but it's confident that it's two cuts. after the ppi report the second cut odds went up 2070%. so the -- up to 70%. so the data is leading the fed. it's not the fed leading the market. if you look at the calls on the street that came out this morning, they're all over the place in terms of how many cuts are expected. here's jpmorgan, we continue to look for first ease in november, and after this morning perhaps see risks tilted toward a little more toward september than december. bank of america, "overall we retain our view for one rate cut in december and a cycle that end with 3.5% to 3.250%." goldman sachs, we expect one in

september and a sudden in december. we think if the next three rounds are in a similar range the leadership is likely to push through a cut in september. but morgan stanley sees three cuts this year starting in september informed by their forecast that reached the pace of 2.5% ahead of the meeting. inflation continues to move convincingly lower, and the fed cuts every meeting through mid 2025. one more for flavor. on balance, wells fargo says we remain confident that the fomc will reduce the federal funds rate before the year is out. it will be a close call between two or two 25-basis point cuts. september, november, december, all in play according to wall street forecasters, and the next few months on inflation and the labor market which powell acknowledged is showing cooling. even said the monthly jobs numbers might be overstated. i think it was a nod to they're paying attention to that, too, and want to stick the landing. >> right.

>> i don't think anything really changed in terms of the outlook yesterday. he wasn't as dovish -- wasn't as excited about cpi as the market was. he can't be, he's the fed chief. he can't look into one number, especially after three hot numbers earlier in the year. >> all right. let's turn to tesla now. shares are actually at a session high, up 7.6% on what appears to be a victory for the company, for its ceo elon musk, in terms of putting to shareholders two different votes, one to reincorporate in the state of texas, and another to pay compensation to mr. musk that was voted on back in 2018. just to refresh, remind people, at the time it was worth about $2.6 billion, and he had to hit targets that at the time, again, in 2018 were milestones that were far in excess of anything tesla had ever achieved both in terms of the stock price, in terms of ebitda. all of those milestones were hit in the intervening six years. none of the options that had

been awarded or were exercised by mr. musk, and they were subject of a court case in delaware where it was overturned. hence, put back to shareholders who had previous approved this plan back in 2018 by some 73% of those shareholders who voted. it does appear that once again shareholders have said have -- have said yes to this plan. and that would mean, of course, that mr. musk will come into some 300 million or so options, he has five years under which he must exercise -- can exercise them. excuse me. he has to hold the shares for five years post exercise. just want to make sure we get all the details correct here because, of course, this does appear that shareholders have said yes. we were wondering yesterday would the big index funds led by the likes of vanguard and blackrock vote in favor. does appear they did, if you look at a chart that mr. musk share ed on x and the number of

votes for his comp plan. if you're getting near $1.4 billion, you're probably looking at a number that includes yes votes from the likes of some of those big funds. so if that hold up -- and remember, we don't have the final vote, that won't be until later today -- you can change your vote, it would be favorable for him. he gets those options, and he owns a lot more of the company. but along with it comes significant dilution for shareholders. >> sure. but also, you know, dan ives says he thought it was a $20 to $25 overhang on the stock this year that has weighed down on shares ever since the delaware ruling basically came through. what he called the twilight zone soap opera got set up. >> he's always got something. some reference -- >> said it's a pop the champagne moment. >> it's always that or popcorn, one of these things have to be popped. tesla is making up at least half of that $25 just on this session

alone. >> i mean, i don't get like some of these institutional shareholders and the pension funds, i guess were just not that concerned that he would leave. that was the risk, right? that's what was the overhang on the stock, that he wouldn't be as committed. i wonder if he'll commit in the shareholder meeting today for the next three to five years. that will be a question. >> curious to see what he has to say. there were 72 billion reasons not to leave. that's what his stake in tesla's currently or was as of yesterday were. so would he really want to leave when he still has so much of his net worth? who knows. to the broader market, s&p closed above 5,400 for the first time yesterday. record highs along with the nasdaq on pace for the best week since late march. for more on where the record rally might go we'll bring in bill nygren. great to have you as always. we spent the last few days talking more about this secular growth concentration, and i wonder what you think that says about value, if it's a

disappoi disappointment or an opportunity. >> when i hear you talking about the big winners today, the one thing i know is we don't own any of them. so it's -- it's been a rough year for us trying to keep up with the market that's been so narrowly led by very high pe multiple stocks. i think the most interesting thing in the market today is that there are about 90 names in the s&p 500 that either lose money or sell more than twice the market multiple. and there are about 80 that sell at less than half the market multiple. and at oakmark where we're trying to look out five years at the companies we think can some the largest increases over that time period, the balance swings very heavily today to the opportunities being in the low pe stocks. >> name a couple of them, and are any of them names that we don't often talk about with you? like a capital one or an

alphabet? >> well, i think one of the tools that the management teams have at those low pe companies for self-help is share repurchase. so the companies that we're most excited about tend to be in relatively mundane industries where the managements have decided to return the capital they generate to the shareholders, either through dividends or repurchase. so one of our largest holdings is gm. and our opinion of mary barra went through the roof when in the first quarter they announced that they were going to be repurchasing 20% of their shares in the open market, and they announced earlier this week they've almost completed that already. and they're going to do another 11% of the company. it just seems like investors won't pay much for growth in eps that comes from share repurchase. gm's earnings will be going up about 40%, earnings per share, going up about 40% if they

maintain flat net income because of the decrease in the denominator. >> i'm glad you brought them up because morgan stanley today takes note, best performing auto oem year to date. while we cannot quantify the impact, we believe gm's share buybacks are responsible for the majority if not the entirety of the share price performance this year. what does that say about the underlying business? >> well, i think gm management recognizes that they're in a relatively slow growth business. and i think that morgan stanley report is a good example of investors not wanting to pay for growth in earnings, earnings per share, that comes from a reduction in thedom nominator. we've seen -- the denominator. we've seen examples of companies that have had disciplined buyback plans over multiple years, and the tremendous impact that can have on share price. >> bill, while we're on the

subject, though, to carl's point, the stock is up 33% this year. you don't think that's in any way reflective already of the expecttations of a -- expectations of a smaller float? >> after that large increase, david, it's up to five times earnings multiple. so we think that's still ridiculously cheap. >> yeah. five years worth of earnings seems relatively cheap. yeah. >> if they keep buying back 20% a year, we'll be the only shareholder in 2029. >> congratulations in advance, bill. talk soon. bill nygren. thanks. >> thank you. as we head to break, here's a roadmap for the rest of the hour. tesla shares on a tear as we mentioned. elon musk says he is set to win his mega paypackage vote. we're going to talk with musk biographer walter isaacson next. former president trump is set to meet with america's top ceos in the next hour. that includes jpmorgan's jamie dimon, bank of america's brian moynihan. what's at stake in the relationship between trump and

those big public company ceos? and broadcom shares soaring in the news of a ten for one. what investors need to know as "squawk on the street" continues after this short break. [thunder rumbles] ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ [thunder rumbles] ♪ ♪ the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo

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exposed, and here we're having a vote. and i think it's -- it's more overwhelming than i would have expected. >> longtime tesla bull and ceo of ark invest, cathie wood talking musk's pay package and her call that tesla shares could hit $2,600 a share by 2029. that would be gain of more than tenfold from here. a key part of cathie's thesis, nearly 90% of the tesla's enterprise value in earnings would be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029. we've taken a look at tesla shares. you see they are headed substantially higher as investors continue to focus on that historic pay package and the vote, of course, affirming it for mr. musk. he claims he's winning shareholder support by wide margins. we've reported similarly that it does appear that the likes of vanguard and blackrock have voted in favor, making it a likelihood if it hangs in there and stays the same that it will be approved. our next guest is an elon musk

-- the elon musk biographer. not a, he's the author of the book "elon musk," walter isaacson, cnbc contributor. let's get your reaction to the affirmation of the pay package originally awarded in 2018, and now once again put to shareholders. >> well, both amazing but not surprising if true. people who believe in tesla believe in it because of musk, and he's about to come out with a robotaxi, as you just said. he's pushing autonomous driving. he's not betting on buybacks, he's betting on being the biggest, most important technology and auto company in the future. and i was a little bit, you know, surprised that if indeed these figures are right, it's this overwhelming. but it's a great vote of confidence in musk. >> yeah. we should point out, of course, that it will mean significant

dilution for tesla shareholders. as much as perhaps 9% given 300 million shares are on option that he will be awarded conceivably. >> we shall also -- let me make a point, we have to see what the delaware court's going to do. the delaware court has done weird things. so this doesn't mean boom he gets a stock right away. >> no. i do notice the stock has retrieved a bit in the last couple of moments. you're right it needs to be ratified by the delaware court. what's your sort of take on all things musk right now, walter? you know, obviously given the constant coverage that "wall street journal" story from yesterday talking about his relationship with many female employees at various companies? >> that's why i had a book filled with all sorts of stories including some cited in the "journal," but stories of him on the factory line, figuring out what he's going to do with ai next. this is one of the most complex driven characters around, and at the moment he's got so much going on if he can stay focused.

he just finally got starship, the biggest moveable object ever made by humans, into space. nearalink has been implanted in humans brains so paraplegic can control a computer. you've seen the new self-driving std12 come out with human learning. and certainly you've seen tesla now on a roll. i think interesting thing will be this whole fight with apple. it's confusing, this fight with apple, because in a way there was a grand bargain that could have been done between musk world and apple which is payment systems, ai, for that matter starlink satellites connecting to the phone. but instead, musk is -- for many, many reasons angry at openai and sam altman who he founded openai with before they split up.

and the notion that openai is going to make a partnership with apple just rings all of the bells. that leads to a question -- i have no inside information on this, but if he's got starlink, if he's got an ios -- i mean, an operating system unlike ios that's its own stack, if he has ai and all the other things, should he make his own phone -- or at least partner with something like samsung to have a rival phone that doesn't need a cellphone coverage that can be connected to starlink and have ai and payment systems embedded into it? >> yeah. you know, it's funny, adam jonas, i think it was adam jonas, analyst at morgan stanley, brought up that possibility. interesting that you're discussing it, well. funny you mention starlink because i was also thinking about that. we don't talk about it as often, but the enormous -- the enormity of that, the power that it gives him to a certain extent. the fact to your point that when

starship goes up regularly it's going to be able to deploy hundreds of new satellites at a time, vastly increasing the capacity of starlink. >> absolutely. and then the laser connected mark kentosa who redesigned starlink made it so it's an interconnected web. we have to pause and look at the audaciousness of this. he has re-created the internet in outer space. this means whether you're on a boat or plane or on your cellphone or whatever, you can always get coverage. you talk about launching hundreds because of starship, they're launching twice a week just using the falcon 9 each with payloads of 20, 30, 40 starlink satellites. so he will be the person i think spacex will launch of all tonnage launched to orbit, all satellites, everything launched to orbit this year, not only more than every other company in every other country combined but

95% of all launch. so that means he will dominate the next layer of the internet which will be the internet in lower earth orbit. >> which is why i used the word focus, walter. if we can focus. it brings it back to tesla and today's vote. wonder with so much going on -- it's nothing new for musk, but he's creating this new ai company, as well. you mentioned some of the developments with spacex. are tesla shareholders, were they right to be worried in advance of this vote if it didn't if through about his focus and commitment to tesla? >> oh, yeah. yeah. definitely. and by the way, throughout my book, you can take the 2018 held period about tesla, spacex, everything falling apart which is, by the way, when he made that bet when it was the most shorted stock in history. but he makes a bet, okay, don't pay me, but if i succeed in doing all this, i get this payoff. so i've always worried about his focus. when he bought twitter and

turned it into x and trying to incorporate a payment system, i thought but it's -- i've learned it's hard to bet against him because at least recently despite the various personal meltdowns that happened, everything is hitting on all cylinders. >> yeah. >> i guess i shouldn't use cylinders, right? hitting on all battery cells. >> tesla is not without its challenges, as you well know, in terms of significant competition from chinese ev makers and the like. i'm sorri? >> i was going to say in august he's going to push the robotaxi. in my book it's in a couple years ago when he says, we're just not going to do this new $25,000, you know, global car. we're going to only do robotaxi, no steering wheel. and they finally talk him out of it. well, a few months ago he pushed that again saying we have to get to the era of robotaxi, meaning totally autonomous full

self-driving. that's a huge bet, and in my opinion, it's a tough bet to pull off in the next five years. but that's the bet he's making. >> yeah. as we watch the stockwell off session highs, finally if he lost this compensation vote, what do you think he would have done? >> he's always erratic, but obviously he -- sometimes his friends call it demon mode where he just gets very dark. it would have been bad. he would have felt like he shouldn't develop artificial intelligence, meaning self-driving, optimus the brot, the ai with tesla and companies. he should pull that out of tesla because he fears if he doesn't control the future of ai it could run amok. >> a conversation for another day. walter, thank you. >> good to be with you. >> you, too. great to have you. still ahead, former president donald trump meeting with top executives today at the

business roundtable in washington. we'll tell you who's attending and discuss what's at stake for both sides.

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former president trump meeting with some of the top ceos at the business roundtable, and high-profile names are in attendance including jpmorgan's jamie dimon. we have more live on what's at stake, amman, and about some of the leaks that we're getting real time about what they're talking about. >> yeah. look, we're getting leaks in real time, carl, about what they're talking about on capitol hill. this is the former president's first visit back up to the capitol hill area since the violence and riots of january 6th. he's meeting with republicans behind closed doors right now. we are seeing some leaks about what the former president has been saying. we'll confirm those. emily wilkins will get to you as much as what he's saying behind closed doors there. then he goes to the business roundtable where we expect he's going to meet behind closed doors with public company ceos. and that's a tremendous opportunity for this former president. he has been getting more support from the business community, folks like steven schwartzman, bill ackman, endorsing trump in

recent weeks. but he hasn't really gotten the support back yet from big publicly traded ceos. had is ceos who have a lot of shareholders, a big consumer-facing presence, and a boss so to speak in the public markets. those types. ceos have been -- those types of ceos have been reluck ctant to embrace trump after the racist march in charlotte. a lot of ceos walked away from trump's ceo advisory counsel vernon hills then, have not come -- councils then, have not come back. this is a time for donald trump to reel some folks back in. we'll see whether he makes the most of that or whether this turns into an opportunity for donald trump to lecture those ceos which i think would play less well with some of the executives in the room there. >> do we know if -- the business roundtable invited him to be a speaker? do -- >> they did. they invited both candidates. >> that is telling. >> they invested president biden, as well. biden is at the g7 in italy, unable to attend.

he's sending jeff zienz, a staffer, to brief those folks. we believe that happened earlier this morning. they're being close to the vest with details on timing, who's in the room, what's said. none of this will be on the record or on camera. we're going to rye to ferret out. and a psa, if you're a ceo in the room, text me today. i'm curious to see what it is that donald trump has to say to the business community because it matters. the public, i would argue, really ought to know what the presidential candidates are telling the business community in the run-up to the election. >> and also there hasn't been that much talk about business and economic policy on both sides right now in this election. i'm sure trade is front and center because we know that's an important issue for the former president and for a lot of those multinational ceos. >> yeah. look, the tariff question is a big one for the ceos in the room. trump is proposing 10% across-the-board tariffs on everything. that would raise prices for a lot of things that the ceos want

to buy, right s? so that's a huge one. immigration is a point of divergence. trump is talking about rounding up people, millions of people in this country which is a huge logistical challenge. also a moral challenge. and it's an economic challenge. a lot of those people are employed somewhere in the economy. that would be a huge challenge to the u.s. economy. you can imagine a lot of ceos would want to know exactly what the former president is thinking there. unclear whether they'll get any answers to any of those questions. again, all this behind closed doors. we'll be trying to ferret out exactly what is said in the hours to come. >> stay close. appreciate that. thank you for joining us from d.c. today. we'll continue to monitor that story. meantime, let's get a news update. >> the supreme court ruling moments ago against a bid to restrict access to the abortion pill mifepristone. the high court unanimously found a group of anti-abortion doctors who questioned the fda's decision to make it easier to get the pill did not have legal standing to sue.

the decision does mean the drug can be prescribed by mail and women can obtain the pill in ten weeks of gestation rather than seven. the american journalist jailed in russia since last year will stand trial for espionage charges, but it's not clear when he will go to courts. russian officials accused gerskovich. and the wimbledon is increasing the tournament prize pots to a record-breaking $64 million. that's an increase of nearly $7 million from last year. singles champions will win $3.5 million this year and players who lose in the first round of singles will still go home with about $76,000 each. and i'm told by the chair of the all-england club, ticket demand, carl, has never been greater. back to you. >> not a surprise. thank you. seema mody. coming up next, the fed scaling back its rates cut expectations now projecting just one cut for the year, down from the previous three.

and it's got some wall street economists making revisions to their own outlooks. we'll get new numbers after this quick break. ♪♪ ♪♪ chewy, a citi client, uses citi's financial expertise to help drive its growth and keep its supply chain moving, so more pet parents can get everything they need... right when they need it. keeping more pets, and families, happy. ♪♪ for the love of moving our clients forward. for the love of progress.

i think the rhetoric from the fed is going to change fairly dramatically between now and year end because i don't think this data is going to be sideways to the extend that it has been. i think the economy's going to be weakening. i think employment's going to go up to 4.4. i think that's enough to change the way they're looking at things. >> that was jeffrey gunlach on "closing bell" weighing in on the rate cut timeline. economists out with their new forecast. steve leaseman with the latest revisions after a batch of friendly i would say inflation data. >> that's right. and what we're getting right now are early reads on how this morning's better-than-expected ppi and yesterday's good cpi number changed the forecast for the month end pce, that's the fed's preferred inflation indicator.

the best one to use to gauge where policy should be. so citi coming in at 0.15, pantheon, 0.11. capital. goldman at 0.13. by comparison. look at the year-to-date average. the first four months of the year, 0 pi.33. a third of average, a slowdown expected in the pce coming. all of this leads it a year-over-year forecast of 2.6, down from what it was in april, 2.75. and equal, by the way, to what the fed had been forecasting for the full year, 2.6. it would be the lowest level since early 2021. the average fed official raised their forecast to 2.8% for the full year. so they're kind of already too pessimistic. economists saying the flat reading on core final demand pi prices and the small decline in overall ppi prices is another piece of evidence that supports our view that inflation was overstated early in the year. and that's a key difference right now between the market and the fed. many economists see the past two months of inflation data as

proof that the earlier inflation, the first four months was, well, for lack of a better term, inflated by start of the year price hikes. that may be why markets trade this morning with a 72% chance of two hikes this year, even while the fed projects one. we'll see who's right. the pessimistic the fed or the oft mists in the market -- optimists in the market. >> two cuts feeling good after ppi, steve. so i thought one of the interesting questions yesterday in the news conference was, okay, we've had two good inflation reads, one more would be three. last time you said three was a trend which changed your mind on when those cuts should begin. is it three more -- three total better inflation reads and then they can cut? >> i don't know anymore. i thought they had a bias to cut. i'm not sure. i feel a bit like -- i feel like the fed got out of its hole in march, saw its shadow, and declared six more months of high

inflation. you know, you said that the data's leading the fed earlier. i don't know. i mean, i think if you go back and you think about the first three months of inflation and say, you know what, that was the aberration, not the great improvement we had in 2023. you know, then the last two months, the april and may data look a little better, not just an aberration. so yeah, i know you got alan blinder coming up. i'm fascinated to get his thoughts. i'm much more with gundlach on this. your math is right. three was the right number before. i don't know if three is the right number anymore. >> okay, steve. thank you. with that let's bring in former federal reserve vice chairman alan blinder with his take. now professor at princeton university. do they still have the sort of bias to cut? are they itching to cut, or maybe not as much as we thought? >> no, i think they still have a bias to cut. look, you're comparing it with going up. i think the notion that they're going up has been -- a will of the wisp and is gone basically.

so yes, they have a bias to cut. i think they're still haunted, frankly, by the mistake they made way back at the beginning of this process of not going up fast enough and letting the inflation rise more than anybody certainly the fed or anybody wanted. that memory lingers on. i think that's a large measure -- in large measure what's holding them back. but to your point, yeah, the next move's going to be a cut, and the question is when -- >> how soon? >> didn't ask, i would throw my cards in with the two cuts still. we'll see. >> you're thinking, what, september and december? can they cut as soon as september? >> you know, i'd like to put on the table -- nobody's talking about this at all, cut on july -- in july. that's the last day of july, july 31st. the virtue from the point of

view of the fed from being further distant from the election so that it doesn't look even in -- inclined toward conspiracies. it doesn't look like it was a pre-election move. >> alan -- >> i bet on that, to be clear, this is a 20% probability in my mind. not zero. >> okay. you know, we just talked about inflation scare that we got in q1. we've been chatting more recently about residual seasonality and wondering how many more years we're going to make this mistake of thinking that inflation is worse at the beginning of the year. do you think models need a fix? >> models do need a fix, but to say that is one thing, to do it is another. i mean, the models got a gigantic -- these are statistical models, they don't know about pandemics and things. they know what's february and what's march and what's april. and they got quite a shock during the pandemic. and it will take a while to wash

that out of the seasonal adjustments. so we're going to be worrying about the seasonals for a while yet. >> i also think the dots need a fix. you yourself just said you're betting on two cuts. the market is betting on two cuts. the fed put out its projection for one cuts, if you look at the median. obviously eight members think there are going to be two cuts there year. i don't know, are they helpful? >> could i just correct you a little bit? what you said is exactly right, but it leaves out something that to me was very salient. the committee -- if you look at the dots, it was pretty closely divided between one cut and two cuts. >> right. >> it wasn't like there was an overwhelming -- the median was for one cut. it wasn't like there was an overwhelming vote for one cut. >> no it was four no cuts, seven one cut, eight two cuts. so yes. >> seven and eight. i mean, it's -- i'm leaving out the no cuts. >> are cuts -- are dots helpful? >> what? >> are dots helpful?

>> i mean, a little bit. i've never been a big fan of the dots to tell you the truth. they're a little bit helpful. it gives you a notion of the dispersion -- look, i used it now, and i -- to point out that they're very clustered around one cut or two cuts, almost evenly split. that you see from the dots. the -- i think it's somewhat helpful, although you want to -- the media do point this out in fairness, the median dot, what everyone focuses on, can easily be moved by one person changing their vote. >> good point. well, alan, thanks for coming on. valuable to get your takes. interesting putting july out there, something for them to think about. alan blinder. as we head to break, check out the biggest gainers on the s&p 500 this morning. no surprise broadcom is on top. we'll talk about that, up 13%, as bank of america says it could, quote, join the

trillnaires club after strong numbers. find out why. "squawk on the street" will be right back. ♪ ("tosca, act ii: vissi d'arte" by maria callas) ♪ ♪ (orchestra del teatro alla scala, milano) ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ (cat meowing) ♪ ("huge beats" by louis perez) ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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tough morning for shares of signet jewelers. missing revenue estimates, though earnings per share was a beat. the company reaffirmed higher guidance for the year after the company said that demand trends improved through march and april. day speak with the ceo this morning, and she pointed to two bright spots in bridal which is such a big part of their business. she said we've seen the expected sequential improvement in engagements to last quarter and engagements continue to improve in may. we anticipate further improvement as the second quarter progresses. also she called out fashion merchandise saying it's gaining momentum. shares are an underperformer on the year. they've outperformed over the past pone year but anticipates returning to growth. the they'recoming negative -- comping negative. this is a crazy mover on earnings. i'll be interested to hear what else she has to say.

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and then cherry on top, 10 for 1 stock split, joining the likes of nvidia. shares are up, like you said, 13%. market cap is 10% of surpassing berkshire and eli lilly. it's having a positive read-through. not only -- i mentioned some names, but having a positive read-through on most of the chip space, especially nvidia. arista because they compete in the same space. the custom chipmaker broadcom only raised its annual revenue about $1 billion. most improvement was acquiring

vmware but it leaves room for a.i. as an additional uptick. they guided revenue from $10 to $11 billion. the ceo was questioned on the call. he alluded to maybe that being a little higher. he tends to be quite conservative. it's no wonder almost a dozen analysts are rushing to increase their price target. you can see well above 2,000 bucks. the fundamentals should push higher from here led by a.i., the non-a.i. semibusiness, specifically storage and networking. and then continued acceleration and vmware revenue, which they say is going to be a $4 billion run rate starting in 2025. i think the stock pop has to do more so with the stock split. the accessibility for a lot of retail investors. this name was a little more underexposed to the mix. you have -- know you mentioned it in the commercial break, bank

of america joining the mag 7, maybe pushing out tesla in terms of market cap. we'll see if that happens. >> normally on a split x day you see shares sell off a bit. as cramer explained, you have the split. nvidia defied that. looks like broadcom will, too. >> many are guessing, who will be next? i saw burger king, is that possible? random. it definitely helped with nvidia. so, with broadcom it's having a positive follow-through through the chip space in general. >> to your point, right, you put up all those other names. anything going into the data center seems to be a beneficiary right now if you attach a.i. to it. >> precisely. this company, though, actually sees the revenue. i think with many others, like the narrative with oracle, i know we're talking about a software name, but their uptick in the stock price had to do with the guidance in the coming year and stuff like that as opposed to what we're seeing right now.

with broadcom they create custom chips and people are spending a.i. dollars. custom chips go to their systems. they also make the networking products that connect all the gpus. that's also why they're in competition with nvidia. that's something, too, they address that on the call. they were asked specifically about nvidia. he says he doesn't compete with nvidia in the gpu sense because they make custom versus gpu, but they do compete in the networking world. he thinks the pie is big enough to share. they argue that for amd as well. the pie keeps getting bigger. >> it does feel like these results are surprising to investors, upside and downside as to how much of a beneficiary because we're in such early stages and we mark up the numbers once you realize, they're actually really benefiting. >> some of them. >> this one in particular. >> tieen thank you. kristina partsinevelos. we'll show you a quick chart of tesla. the stock has come down from the highs. had been up over 7%, of course, on what appears to be the news that elon musk pay package has

prevailed in terms of shareholders saying yes on that compensation package, first voted on in 2018. then worth $2.6 billion, but the market cap was $59 billion. today it's worth let's call it over $50 billion with a market cap of $582 billion. don't forget, it will bring dilution. it still has to be ratified by that delaware court that actually said it was unlawful. so, a bit more to go here on that. we'll keep an eye on the stock and, of course, on the official announcement. a lot more of our live market coverage continues after this. as an independent financial advisor, my promise to you is simple. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. i promise that our relationship will go well beyond just investment decisions. it's the intersection of your money and your life where we can make the biggest difference. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated

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good thursday morning again. welcome to "money movers." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla on the floor of the new york stock exchange. today citigroup's chief global economist calls the fed's dot plot too conservative, sticking by his forecast for rate cuts in september and december. he'll be on to make his case. elon musk claiming victory for his pay package. what that means for tesla moving forward. the home construction etf on pace for its best qu