agreed to. and big weekend at the box office. d disney's pixar's "inside out 2" with the highest debut of the weekend and welcome news. it's monday, june 17th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is off today. welcome back, joe. >> thank you. thank you. >> it was a fast turn around. >> it was. i was on the top of a hotel in a pool and you know what ruined my

sunday. >> having to get on a plane and come home? >> no, endless helicopters sunday. >> you were on a plane? >> yeah. >> saturday. >> saturday. endless helicopters. you know for whom? >> yeah. for whom the bell tolls? >> for whom the joe biden tolls. >> you were out for the fund-raiser? >> do things get lost in email? a lot of times people stop my name k-e-r-a-n. i'm out there all dressed up. clooney and julia roberts. jimmy kimmel. hey. there i was all dressed up and not invited. >> i wonder why you made such a short trip. >> i guess i wasn't on the list. >> no. let's look at what is

happening with the u.s. equity futures. we're coming back after a week where the nasdaq once again closed at a record high. you had the dow that was down not just four sessions in a row last week, but three of the last four weeks. the dow is looking down again. futures for the dow down 67 points. s&p futures are flat. the nasdaq is indicated up another 50 points almost. treasury yields have been really interesting. you are looking at treasury yields at their lowest level since the end of march. check it out right now. the ten-year is sitting at 4.23. the two-year at 4.71. the ten-year and two-year and 30-year all tat the low since te end of march. bitcoin is looking at 65,750. >> below 70. big bond market rally. >> yeah. >> last week. >> it looked like the fed could potentially, as you got jobless

claims picking up a little bit and inflation numbers that were in line with expectations in some cases and below expe expec expectations. >> one cut only, basically, for the year. >> kashkari also came out on sunday, yesterday, and said he sees potentially the ability to cut by ecember. >> one. >> he has been one of the more hawkish ones. >> now bonds rally on one cut. >> from six cuts this year to one. >> from six to one. you think about it and is this news to anyone? if it's not, why is it taking so long to do something about it? the u.s. surgeon general, dr. vivek murphy will push for a warning label on social media platforms telling parents that using the platforms might damage

a adelescents health? it just seems like stop the presses. the surgeon general once approval by congress, to add warning labels. no such bills have been introduced yet. he said in the new york times the effects of social media on children and teenagers is on par with road fatalities or contaminated food. good luck with the k street lobbying money of big tech. it will go nowhere. >> if you put a label on this and allow congress to pass that, we could talk about this routinely on the show. protections for children and how lacking it is. >> our frustration with, you know, is front and center. we know this. thank you for saying it. now it's going to be, you know, it's out there. it is already out there.

i highly doubt you will be able to get much. you might get some, you know, make it look like they're trying to do a few things. nothing real is going to happen. it seems like the horse has left the barn at this point. >> it has been years. many years. 2004 when facebook was first introduced and all the ones that have come since. >> scary to be a kid these days. it used to be you go home from school. the pressure could stop. i get bullied. not to that extent. everybody gets bullied on social media. it's a bad place to be. reddit, social media. anonymity makes people act like they're sub-human at times. >> yes. >> if you ever pinned them down. >> you say things online when

you're anonymous that you would never say to somebody face-to-face. >> much less a total stranger. all right. just ten days to go before the first presidential debate. the trump and biden campaigns set out rules for scnn. it will include two commercial breaks and the campaign staff may not interact with the candidate. the podiums will be declared by the coin flip. microphones will be cut off e exe exe except for speaking. a pen and pad of paper and a bottle of water. this could be interesting. first time i heard you cut the mics entirely except the ones talking. >> you didn't get the questions in advance. are we sure that is cnn? >> they will not get the questions in advance. >> there may be a little wiggle

room for biden on that one. >> i won't go that far. they have had issues in the past. >> cnn? >> in the past -- otherwise, i would say -- >> the stakes are so high for our wonderful mainstream media with this election. trump is such a different candidate. it wouldn't be a bad thing to maybe -- the stakes -- >> i'll not throw shade on another news organization. >> okay. the stakes are so high. i think the ends justify the means in this case. >> i don't think that's it. >> i read that. okay. let's hope for the best. the biden campaign raked in $30 million at the star-studded event in los angeles. the fund-raiser alongside former president obama and actors george clooney and julia roberts. biden noted the next president

is likely to have two new supreme court nominees and that is one of the scariest parts of the second trump term. the democratic national committee said it brought in the biggest haul from a fund-raiser. we will talk about this with axios' alex thompson later in the hour. there were questions about the fund-raiser and guided off stage. this is a closely contested race and closely watched. >> it is weird. the contention from the white house is the video is fake or something. i understand what they're saying. you can take in a little bit of applause and stand there for a while and soak it up. i don't think that was a freezing moment. you can't change that he kind of was like led off. president obama grabbed his hand. it looked like visiting angels. it looked like escorting off. it looked like visiting angels.

i don't know how you can say that the white house can say that didn't happen. don't believe your eyes. in either event, you are right, it was saturday. my mind is mush. i left yesterday at 7:00 a.m. since i did not get an invite, i don't know where it was exactly. there were choppers going crazy all day saturday for the event. >> i bet. >> i'll ask our axios guest. it's a lot of money. that's good, but does being with jimmy kimmel and george clooney, do most americans say, wow, that's great. i want to do what george and julia and jimmy say? >> do most americans? >> i don't think those -- i think in general the whole hollywood influence. >> you can say the same thing

about ceos. >> i guess. it may be my perspective. >> there's nothing that is universal in america at this point. you will have -- >> i don't know. >> just about everything. >> i think hollywood types sort of saying things about -- they are free to say whatever they want. i wouldn't give my political views or science views. they would not be the people i would go to to bone up on a subject. big weekend at the box office for disney's pixar's "inside out 2." the biggest domestic debut of 2024. the second best theater opening for the animated film ever just behind 2018's "the incredibles 2." the global haul for "inside out

2" is expected$2" is expected t million. it has been a while since we have said the movies are great. it seems like they have lost their way and universal's animation has taken over a little bit or done well. you probably saw this. 30-year-old bryson dechambeau won his second major yesterday edging out rory mcilroy to win the u.s. open. he's a beast. he's kind of a changed guy, not since his father passed, but he looked like a hothead and now he stops at almost every fan. the fans embraced him. it was the usa versus a -- not rory, rory is very popular. i would watch him in the ryder cup. >> i do love rory, too.

i was glad to see bryson do this. >> we talked off camera. i think rory was 49 for 49 under five-foot putradts in the tournament. for someone where it is already in your head it is a problem closing. it has been ten years or 3,800 days. i'm sure he is somewhere right now -- you got to get over it and move on. that was one he should have won. >> did you see the nbc setup that they did leading up to this? the best thing i've ever seen in my life. 25 years since payne stewart. >> the smu connection. >> his father. he had his son. his son talking about what it means to be a father. his son was 10 years old when his father died in the plane accident. his son talking about what it

means to be a father. >> he whispered to phil when he lost. i may have won this, but you will be a father. bryson's smu on the hat when payne sunk that putt. i was trying to explain to my kids yesterday that ghost plane was frightening. where did it finally crash? in the dakotas? it was frightening. >> it was the best thing i'd ever seen, especially on father's day. 25 years since he won that tournament. when we come back, new comments from minneapolis fed president neel kashkari on his expectations for interest rates. that's coming up next. later, we will talk politics with florida congressman byron donalds. "squawk box" will be right back. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today.

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joining us right now to talk about this and more is stephanie link, the portfolio manager at hightower. steph, what we saw last week, with the lower needs, and the nasdaq kithitting a new high ev day. >> yeah, look, we have a really great environment right now. the data in the u.s. is very favorable. the atlanta tracker for gdp is 3.1%. inflation is making progress. initial claims for the job market is strong. the credit spreads are super tight. all of this, you would think, because the financial conditions are fairly easy, you would think you would see a broadening out in the market. you are not really seeing it. you are seeing it more focused on technology.

that's the exciting part of the economy. we're a little hostage here to the macro in the short term, but the earnings are going to support other parts of the market doing a bit better. >> i have seen some statistics that a third of all capital inflows have gone into the u.s. market since the pandemic and taken its share of the gains. you wonder how quickly things could change and if you look, for example, go to france. 5% pullback on the snap election. not just the far-right candidate o outpacing, but the far-left candidate with macron now. it has a lot of questions over what happens and how politics can have an impact on the markets, too. right now, france has lost all of its gains for the year in its

markets. do you worry we are prone to potential problems here with politics fronts and center or are we the benefit? >> i think politics are always going to be creating volatility in any markets because it's the unknown. the outcome is unknown. i do believe sometimes we see the volatility, especially here in the states, i think it is an opportunity. i think we have to step back and whoever gets in as president, the more important thing in my mind is the mix of congress. we'll have to see how that shapes up. if you have the entire party that has the presidency as well as the two houses of congress, that could be something that creates a lot more volatility. i think, overall, becky, it comes down to fundamentals and companies and what they're doing

and how they're executing. we have some amazing companies here in the united states with great transparency which is super important. looking for opportunities if we get a pullback on the political front and that's where you want to step in and add to positions. >> what are you chasing after? do you see as potential opportunities, steph? >> i have one name that is obvious, broadcom. the other name that is not obvious is dr horton. broadcom will do $75 a share in earnings by 2026. it is not only driven by a.i., but the non-a.i. businesses that are at a trough right now. i do think you will see upside maybe 3% to 5% growth there. vm ware is completely changing this company into much more of a software company.

that will help recurring revenue as well as margins. seagate, i think, is a little bit off the radar screen. we are starting to see the pc refresh cycle is starting to get some legs or green shoots, if you will, if you listen to what dell had to say. hp had growth for the first time in two years. we had amd talk about their a.i. chips being five times as fast as their prior chips. so, you are going to see a twhoe refresh cycle. seagate is the leader and they have pricing power and exp expansion. and finally, housing. i know everybody is down and out on housing, but look what mortgage applications did last week alone. when rates fell five basis points, mortgage applications rose 15.4%. you can imagine what we will see this week? to me, a super cheap stock. >> that's the play on the

assumption that the fed will cut at least once this year, right? >> i mean, i think that the bond market's doing the job for the fed, right? we have seen rates come down. i don't think you need rates to come -- i don't think you need the fed to cut for the housing stocks to do well as long as rates are coming down. i'm in the camp of the fed doesn't do anything this year. i don't think they have to because the growth in the economy is stronger than expected. i'll take it if they cut rates, but i do think if you look last week as rates came down, the housing stocks did well. they are out of favor and super cheap. >> there is favor in treasury yields than stocks lately. the vix is really tame. the moves we see in yields have been completely data dependent. every time you get a good inflation reading, the yields

come down. that would be my only question. the bond market is doing the work for them, but it is data dependent, too. >> absolutely. 100%. i think woe're a little bit mor sensitive to the macro at this point in time because we don't have companies reporting earnings. as a result, we're hyper focused on the macro. we should be to some extent. i think we have to step back and look at the economy as a whole and we are doing pretty well in terms of growth. inflation is certainly making some progress. maybe not what the fed wants, but certainly making progress. that's a good combination for earnings. that's what i care about as a portfolio manager. >> makes sense. stephanie, always great to see you. thanks for kicking off the week with us. >> thanks, becky. coming up, warner bros. discovery maybe getting boxed out on the nba tv negotiations.

"squawk box" is coming right back.

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all right. right now, the latest on negotiations for the nba tv rights. the new york times reporting that warner bros. discovery is at risk of losing the games on tnt. the nba is nearing deals with espn and amazon and nbc that would be collectively worth $7 billion over a number of years. there was this. on friday night, charles barkley

would retire after next season. he has been a huge fan favorite because he speaks exactly what he thinks. he says exactly what's on his mind. he has been publicly critical of the warner bros. deal. he says no matter what happens, he's out after next year. >> until he comes back in somewhere. >> that is what i thought about, too. it will be when eagles hell freezes over tour. the bank of england latest policy decision is due thursday. the uk central bank is expected to hold rates steady ahead of elections early next month. it may begin laying the ground work for the rate cut in august or september, but strategists are warning if the eras tour does what people think, it could

delay a rate cut. we are talking about people flooding into the uk to see her final tour dates in august to bring an influx of spending to skew inflation data. the analyst says the surge in hotel prices could be material. could show up in the economic numbers adding as much as 30 basis points to serve as inflation. that could be enough to make the bank of england rethink a rate cut. we're not kidding. it's about the sixth or seventh time something related to the numbers we report on skewed by the taylor swift effect. >> it is interesting. we used to talk about a stock that had the oprah effect on it. weight watchers or something like that. taylor swift actually moves entire economies. >> economic numbers. >> yeah. yeah. all right. when we come back, time for a

financial checkup. sharon epperson will tell you about a move you can make today to lowerou yr tax bill for next year, but you have to act quickly. she has the details after this break. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level moments need the next level network. oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot

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if you hit it, get it checked. good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box." we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. you will see the nasdaq has pulled back. a loss of 105 if we were to open at the levels. the dow has been down for three of the last four weeks. we continue to see a little pressure. the nasdaq closed at a new high on friday. it is indicated up 27 points this morning. s&p futures are down by five. and it is tax time. kind of. when is it not? it is because you worry about april 15th and worry about the extension. yo you do the extension.

it's all the time. sharon, june may be an odd time to start preparing for next year's tax return. okay. sharon epperson is peehere to t us about the important deadline for millions of taxpayers. you see sharon is here. >> joe, it's time to think about it. it's not too early to take steps now to less ten your potential x hit for the year. june 17th is the important deadline for making second quarter estimated tax payments for 2024. if you a small business owner or retiree who does not have taxes withheld, you need to make estimated payments to avoid falling behind on taxes and facing under payment penalties. the estimated tax deadlines are april 15th, june 17th, september 16th and january 15th, 2025. if you skip today's deadline, you could trigger a penalty at

the current interest rate set by the irs which is now 8% plus the balance due. to avoid the penalty, the irs says you should pay most of the taxes throughout the year so you owe less than $1,000 when you file your 2024 tax return. generally, that means paying 100% of the tax you owed on the 2023 return. the middle of the year is a good time to give yourself a paycheck checkup if you are a w-2 employee. use the irs web siteto make sure you have the correct amount of taxes withheld from your pay. consider increasing your federal withholding by updates your w-4 form. you can go to cnbc.com for more on the june 17th tax deadline and the importance of tackling taxes early. >> it is not just small business owners or self-employed people. who else? >> retiree with a big

distribution from the pre-tax i.r.a. you want to have your estimated tax payments there. if you sold and had a significant profit, that is another reason why. even if you are a w-2 employee and taxes withheld from your pay and you have other investments or something to trigger profit and haven't paid taxes on that income, you need to pay taxes on that income. >> if you have a lumpy paycheck year to year. >> absolutely. >> and more about taxes? you gave me five deadlines. those days were fine in my life until now. you also wrote something for cnbc.com how june is a good time for an overall financial checkup. >> it is a good time to look at everything. reviewing your cash flow. things happen during the year that are changing. check your monthly spending and saving. it is a really good time to

shore up your emergency savings if you haven't gotten there yet. make most of the retirement accounts and 401(k) retirement plans. look at your assets protecting them and making sure you have the right insurance and insurance coverage limits. can you bundle to get discounts? a good time to look over everything. >> okay. thank you, sharon. >> sure, joe. i like to give you homework, joe. >> you do. a lot. >> just as happy as a dental checkup. >> psa. all right. when we come back, president biden goes hollywood raising $30 million at a star-studded event this weekend. we will talk about the money flowing into the campaigns of both candidates ahead of the upcoming debate. that's next. and reminder for you. you can get the best of "squawk

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welcome back. president biden over the weekend held a fund-raiser that we talked about already on saturday. i did not go out to l.a. i was there and there was a lot of activity. even more traffic. raising own $30 million at the hollywood all-star event featuring jimmy kimmel and julia roberts and george clooney and former president obama. joining us nmore is alex thompsn from axios. very glitzy, alex.

it's always nice to raise money and it's a lot of money, $30 million. my question was, does it matter where it comes from? does it backfire at all? i guess for democrats, it doesn't. does it backfire at all raising eyebrows with hollywood and influence on politics. does it help to have julia roberts and barbra streisand? does it help perception w-wise? does everybody like jimmy kimmel? >> i think you made a good point. the republicans did not mind the contrast with donald trump stumping with voters over the weekend and joe biden at the glitzy hollywood affair. i think democrats would say they love the contrast when donald

trump and republicans are behind the scenes. culture elitism against financial elitism. >> back in our time, that was the point that we made. pick your poison. fat cat ceos are just in insufferable types. for the average american, they are going 140 more days? really? >> i'm glad i'm not a politician and have to ask people for money. you said this is the largest fund-raiser in years. this is the largest for a democrat ever which is why they are willing to do that and do these take some of the gamble and especially for joe biden who has never been the most prestigious small dollar

fund- fund-raiser. you need the big types to show up. donald trump last month raised $141 the mmillion. joe biden raised $50 million in april. they will need these big checks for the next 140 days or so. >> do you have a running total? are they tied or is president biden still ahead? >> we actually don't know. notably, we know donald trump raised $141 million in may, joe biden still has not announced his total. as of april, joe biden was ahead. he had $192 million in cash on hand. donald trump has not been spending a lot of money on television. he has been $60 million behind. i have to double check that. it is possible that as small dollar donors have come home, especially post -conviction,

donald trump could be tied. >> alex, i heard the double haters are now at 25%. that would be americans saying i hate both these candidates. that is double the election in 2020. is there a point where that actually matters? >> i think it already is going to matter. >> it is not changing the outcome of who gets nominated. is there a point where that changes? the nomination practice or policies? >> it's possible. we have to remember that we've only had this nominating process since 1972-1976. people had great frustrations. the system can change. it is designed -- you have to have short of a shock like you had in 1968 for it to change

significantly. you know which could happen. >> something else i read that i thought was interesting, alex. it was that former president obama urged people in the audience to not get dispondent. really? so that's just acknowledging where we are. that's all that is right there. there might be a reason for democrats to be despondent about this? >> absolutely. if you look at the polls, the fact is donald trump would win the election if the election were held today. obama, and joe biden is not exactly -- the democrats' favorite candidate. barack obama is trying to keep people home and keep them rallied and keep them excited. yes, it's an acknowledgment. >> don't believe your eyes.

think about five years from now and you may think it's a fake video with president obama holding president biden's hand and leading him up. five years is a long time. there are people that could make the case this is a vote for kamala harris. are there not? is that totally outlandish to say that's what this is if you vote for joe biden? >> donald trump's campaign, the super pac, is already putting money behind the ad. the end is something along the lines of can joe biden survive the next five years? can we? it ends with a picture of kamala harris. i think this is going to be a huge part of the campaign. >> alex, do you like steak tartar? you were not at schumer's father's day party? >> i was not. >> we can't see it well. i feel bad for the staffer that

put a piece of cheese that just was put on the grill. chuck is out there and he is smiling and it's nice. someone should get fired. they handed him the spatula. it is like when elizabeth warren was drinking a beer. let's have a beer. that came down immediately after that went out. you don't want to eat that. you can't flip that burger. it has the cheese already on it. were you privy to that? >> i saw it. maybe he likes his burgers really, really raw? >> that's why i said steak tartar. did biden ever teach constitutional law? do you know that? is that another corn pop moment? what was that? >> two things. first of all, joe biden is a man known for telling many tall

tales. >> he doesn't lie. that's what the media says. he tells tall tales. >> the one thing i will point out if you google corn pop, it is a real person. it is not a tall tale. >> it razor blades and five other guys and joe biden walked out with a chain and they all scattered? did that really happen super joe? i don't know. >> okay. >> i'm not buying it. >> fair point. >> and how many -- did you say -- were you a lifeguard? did you save nine lives? that's like a cat, isn't it? alex, thank you. >> i life forguarded for a summ and i didn't save anybody. >> if you save one you'd say i had a good career. good to have you on. see ou. when we come back, wells fargo reportedly laying off more than a dozen workers who allegedly used devices or

software to fake computer activity whileorng wki at home. we've got the details on this story next. we'll be right back.

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wells fargo fire department more than a dozen employees last month after investigating claims that they were faking work. that's according to a bloomberg report. it says the staffers were discharged after allegations that they used devices or software to imitate activity. those are sometimes known as mouse movers or mouse jigglers, they took off during the pandemic when companies used monitoring software to ensure employees were actively working while at home. in a statement wells fargo says

it holds employees to the highest standards and doesn't tolerate unethical behavior. we were going to talk but we're not going to. "squawbo wl rhtack x"ilbeig bk.

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all right. welcome back, everybody. a recent antidefamation league report has found that severe harassment online has gone up 22% over the last 12 months. that's an increase from 18% in 2023. the adl says that the harassment was dominated by an unprecedented surge in anti-semitism on and offline. antidefamation league ceo and national director jonathan

greenblatt joins us right now with more of those results. hate and harassment up incredibly sharply. what's going on? >> yeah, you know, we know that social media is a super spreader of antisemiittism and bigotry of all forms. i think what we're seeing now, becky, is it's just exploded. events in the middle east, polarization in middle america. and as you said, 18 to 22%. half of teenagers between 13 and 17 report having been harassed online. the numbers are straggering. >> we were talking about how the surgeon general is trying to get congress to allow them to put a warning on social media for parents saying it could be bad news. >> there's truth to it. i think we'll look back on gig our 13-year-olds phones as if we were handing them packs of cigarettes. this is a dangerous things to give to kids that don't have the -- >> it's the social media. >> this is the way you're giving

predators and bullies 24/7 access to your kids. at the end of the day, we've seen, particularly minorities, lgbtq, muslims and jews being harassed serially on social media. >> the harassment for muslims even out strips that for -- >> 40 some odd people who identify as muslim have been harassed online. 40% of jewish people report changing their behaviors so they don't seem changing. changing their names in their uber apps, their lyft apps so the drivers don't know they're jewish. >> i mean, we were just talking off camera, but there was an incident here in new york last week where in a subway chain people chanting, you know, you have the opportunity to get off here if you're jewish. >> i think it was all ziozionists, they use the term zionists.

we've seen attacks on zionist businesses across the country. there's no such thing as a zionist business. it's if the owners are israeli or jewish. starbucks have been -- i used to work at starbucks, i've heard from people inside the company, hundreds of starbucks across america have been van lowdalize with free gaza and red triangle. >> the only connection starbucks has from israel is howard schultz is jewish. they don't have any stores in israel. attacks on companies, attacks on businesses because they seem jewish. >> is that true you have to be jewish to be zionist? >> no, you don't. >> i wish you and i were on that train. i don't think these people realize that not only are 90 plus percent of person jews quote, unquote zionist, scores

and scores of millions of christians and people without faith are scio zionist. >> it seems you have -- it might be a good idea to support a democracy. >> you have to understand these protesters are not really sort of pro-palestinian. they're anti-western. they're not really pro-peace. they're anti-israel. there's an anti-capitalist thread running through this that's louder and louder each and every day. >> what's to be done? >> i think on the cyber front there's a few things. what the surgeon general's proposing, the k street money aside, it should happen. parents need to understand. >> it's just the bare minimum. the idea that we've never beeable to do anything to protect kids online is insane. >> there's a new piece of legislation that debbie wasserman schultz and don bacon proposed it's called the doxing threat act. give federal authorities the

ability to deal with some of the bad stuff happening on social media. the companies need to broaden transparency access, standardize the way we can see what they're doing. especially on gen ai stuff. section 230, make the companies liable when they publish libel. you guys are responsible here at cnbc if you slander or lie. the biggest most profitable companies on the planet should have the same level of accountability. >> i agree 100%. >> what about offline? >> look, offline i think we've got to look at the masking laws, so this is not easy to do. governor hochul is talking about it. you need the right framework that protects free speech, but people concealing their identities to menace and threaten minorities is crazy. number two, we need consequences applied. we need alvin bragg in this city and d.a.'s across thecountry to hold people accountable for the

hate crimes. >> the anti-masking laws were originally set up to go after the kkk when they would wear hoods. >> legislators understood in the 50s and 60s that marching down main street wearing a white hood meant you weren't just there to do free expression. walking down main street or being on a college campus and assaulting your classmates shouldn't be permitted. >> you have a high degree of confidence alvin bragg is going to help you here? >> d.a.'s all over the country need to do the right thing. >> skirting my question. >> int t haven't talked to d.a. bragg personally. it's not a matter. it's the what. >> sometimes it's the who a little bit. >> there's something else that can happen. the federal government needs to look at this. it's a violation of civil rights when you prevent people because of how they pray or where they're from from joining the full access to society, so there's civil rights violations afoot that need to be considered. >> jonathan, thanks for coming

in. it's just after -- actually, it's almost 5 after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast, and you're watching -- >> thanks for outing us, going over. >> really late. it was important. this is "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. andrew is off this morning. checking the futures, we are seeing a little bit of red at least in the dow, which we have seen recently. it's diverged as the s&p and nasdaq have continued to move to new highs. let's get to dom chu with a look at this morning's premarket movers. okay, fine, do your premarket movers. then maybe we can talk. that was unbelievable, but go ahead. >> it was the best golf i've seen just from a drama standpoint. >> what a great course, oh, my god. >> yeah, so i'll get through the business first and hopefully we have a little time to chat it out. shares of auto desk up 4.5%, over 11,000 shares of volume.

the maker of graphic design and engineering related software. it's now the target of activist fund manager starboard value. the fun run by veteran activist jeff smith has a roughly half billion dollars stake in autodesk and has spoken with the board regarding concerns around the timing of disclosures it has made in the past about an internal investigation that led to the ouster of its then chief financial officer. that probe found that some executives manipulated certain key reporting tied to financial metrics. so autodesk shares up about 4.5% on that activist news. next up an analyst call getting some attention in retail. shares of best buy up 3.35%. roughly 5,000 shares of volume. the consumers electronic retailer from a target neutral. up 6 bucks from 95, they think an upcoming upgrade cycle from new appliances and product offerings could be a good tail

wi wind for the company. for more on that story, head to cnbc.co cnbc.com/provooifrs. we'll cap things off with a dow component on disney. helped along in part by news out of this weekend's box office where the company's animated feature inside out 2 took in $155 million in its domestic theatrical debut making it the second highest animated haul every next to incredibles 2. it's also the first film since warner brother's barbie topped $100 million in an open weekend debut. disney shares up fractionally right now. i'll kick it off by saying i really thought rory mcilroy was going to do it. it just goes to show that even the pros can miss two to three foot putts every once in a while. >> he was 49 straight under five feet, and that -- i mean, i

think that's why he's probably in a bad place right now, and people are piling on, but if you hit 49 straight putts at five feet or less and then you miss those two on 16 and 18 where you're going to end the drought with all that pressure, it's like you got to look deep. and believe me, i miss putts like that. i'd be like 47 and 2 that i missed out of the 49, so i'm not saying. how about hitting a wedge into a 540 yard par 4? >> yeah, so first of all, all of these guys put on a huge show, and i would say this, you mentioned the 49 straight. i also saw a stat that i think it was inside five feet. i don't think rory mcilroy has missed all season long going into this u.s. open, so that was totally uncharacteristic about that. the thing i would say is this was great for golf. >> yeah. >> because between the liv pif,

pga tour negotiationings and everything else there's been a lot of distraction. bryson dechambeau comes across every single week as a more likable kind of figure, just a really great personality for the game of golf. and by the way, i don't know if you watched the -- after all the hoopla was over, he took golf channel's johnson wagner back out to that 18 bunker. >> hardest shot in golf. >> a 2% chance, the odds makers gave him a 2% shot of getting inside five feet. >> he said the best shot of his career. >> johnson wagner with the golf channel went out with him and put it inside of him. >> yes, he did. >> bryson was there for it. they filmed the whole thing. you've got to check it out. >> old jonathan wasn't trying to win the u.s. open with no shots to spare. you know what else is great? when 6 under wins. i'm not going to talk about what i usually do, but to make you

jealous, i got to play riviera on friday, and that's like -- that's one of the holy shrines of golf. >> rif viera is amazing. i was at kiawah island, played the ocean club with my wife. we had a fun time, but by the way, just before i go, joe, a huge shoutout to tom patchily and all the guys at pinehurst, that was a heck of a u.s. open they put on. >> and bryson dechambeau talked about that, and nbc did a great job too. i was at riviera, i was just transfixed with every house is $100 million, and they're all new, different than what i -- you know, you're like just looking around. i played with the wife as well, which is great that we can do that, isn't it? >> maybe we should do that. >> all right. if there's any viewers left, let me tell you what's coming up.

we're going to talk technicals with katie stockton of fairlead strategies. "squawk box" will be right back.

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let's talk technicals with katie stockton, fairlead streams founder and managing partner as well as a cnbc contributor. hi. >> hi, good morning. >> thanks for being here this morning. the countertrend signal that you had seen this the s&p that i guess -- were you on about a month ago, three weeks ago. >> that's right. >> we were in a little bit of a pullback. that's been sort of solved on the upside for the s&p. >> you know t hasn't quite resolved yet. >> almost. >> we're very close to that.

where that happens is actually on a strong open above 5440, so we've been using that as a bit of a stop lopss on the upside. we still feel like we're comfortable with that noting that these same signals, these countertrend signals from the indicators are super widespread among the semiconductor stocks, and of course that has been almost the sole source of leadership here lately. >> -- you know, i was around for a lot when i was a stockbroker in '87, there is something called the calm before the storm. exceptionally low volatility in the stock market prompted some professional investors to warn that current conditions may be the calm before the storm, and here's what it looks like. for some reason i just have this -- i don't know, and i mentioned it before, i have a sense of foreboding about things because it's been just sort of a

move higher without even the slightest idea that we might. >> i think we have to keep an eye on the vix, right, to that end, and we have definitely been in a low volatility cycle, for now more than a year, which is about kind of average, right, for these cycles. we've been calling for a move, even if we don't see this near-term pullback that we're looking for out of this lower volatility cycle into something that shows more corrective phases. just more volatility, and the reason for that is that support is intact, 11 spot 8 on the vix, and there's been incremental improvement -- not improvement really, but momentum has shifted behind the vix towards the upside and even this morning you look at it, it feels like it's about ready to move higher. >> well, yeah, it doesn't -- the vix isn't going to move higher if the market spikes higher. it's going to move higher when -- >> that's right. especially if the vix clears its

200 day moving average, which i believe is right around 14 spot 5, that to me would be indicative of heightened risk near-term. >> the dow is not -- the nasdaq has been unbelievable skand so the s&p. >> yeah. >> after like -- bitcoin is going to have trouble going higher if there's only one cut. it's been wanting db yo-- you kb obviously that's why people buy it. they think the fed's going to go hog wild. why is it diverging from the nasdaq? >> i wrote it up this morning, in fact. we've been watching bitcoin. the correlation to the nasdaq 100 has been increasing back to levels that we haven't seen since like '21. and to me that's interesting. it does show that now investors are treating things as a risk asset broadly, right, including bitcoin, including equities. when we see bitcoin pulling back in that framework and the nasdaq 100 just forging higher. that concerns us to some degree. just short-term l we.

we still believe in this bull market cycle for bitcoin and equities. we do sense that divergence will ultimately catch up with the nasdaq 100 index as soon as people say, wait, a second, nvidia's maybe a little bit overstretched here. >> okay. what else in terms of -- i mean, commodities have been interesting. the yield curve, were you expecting this drop in the ten-year? >> you know, we've been looking for a sideways to lower from treasury yields and i think we're getting that. we have what looks like a pretty significant lower high in place, support for the ten-year is around 4.13. we do think that will ultimately be broken, but we don't think it will be broken in like dramatic fashion. that would theoretically be more conducive to a bull market cycle for equities, but we think that bull cycle while it will persist will see more corrective phases and therein be harder to navigate. >> lower yields could come from a break in the market couldn't

it? >> could also. commodities i agree have been super interesting. copper is down about 14% after its recent high. the retracement follows massive breakouts for gold, for copper, for others. we're seeing the retracement as counter trend for commodities. crude oil does seem to have an over reaction. >> is there any reason to look at the dow itself? >> it shows a different cross section of the market. anything that is more cyclical has been underperformed and you can see that in the pullback. you' it in equal weighted b benchmarks. those pullbacks still look like they have room from a momentum perspective. we have most of our indicators suggesting that we need several more weeks of either consolidation or of a pullback to get out of this mode. >> all right. thanks, katie. you don't track rory mcilroy, but will he win another major?

do you have -- >> that i cannot predict. >> you can't look at charts, ten-year i'm worried. >> i wish i could, i'd make some money off of that. >> thanks, katie. >> when we come back, the call for tougher trade barriers to protect u.s. factories and jobs. the president for alliance and manufacturing will join us. and then former president donald trump floating a 20% corporate tax rate during his meeting with ceos. we will speak to operation hope's john hope bryant and former white house chief of staff under president trump, mick mulvaney. "squawk box" will be right back. one of the ways i think we can combat anti-gay sentiment first to understand what it means to be gay. it has been a transformative identity because it has taught me how to love people who might not love me, which is sometimes our family. out of that core what i have learned to do is how to turn poison into medicine, to not burn down those bridges and

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a group of leading u.s. manufacturers is calling on the united states to enact stronger trade barriers to chinese imports. joining us right now is scott paul, he's the president of the alliance for american manufacturing, which is a nonprofit, nonpartisan alliance of u.s. manufacturers and the united states steel union. why don't you talk about why you think we need tougher tariffs. >> well, part of it, becky, is we've seen this before. we saw a china shock 20 years ago. we lost one in three manufacturing jobs. we slipped out of first place globally in manufacturing. our export performance plummeted, and we've been able to rebuild that very carefully over the last 15 years, but a lot of communities have been left behind, and now we see china with a tremendous amount of over capacity in vehicles, evs in particular, but also

internal combustion engines. we kind of know how this plays out. the sequel's not going to be any better. i think we can limit the damage by getting in front of this. i would say on evs it seems like the biden administration agrees with that. it seems like the eu is coming around to that view as well. there's a lot more that needs to be done, becky. >> i saw janet yellen speaking last week. she laid out the argument, what i didn't realize is that the chinese have taken all of the money they used to put into infrastructure internally and are now spending it on manufacturing production. i guess they already make up about 30% of the world's m manufacturing, and if that number rises, it's hard to imagine how the globe absorbs all that manufacturing output without having some huge impact on domestically our manufacturing and other nations too. i understand the pushback, but i just wonder if you wind up being

in a situation like smoot-hawley in 1930 when that was passed to protect american farmers. what it did was cut global trade down as other nations also raised their tariffs. it really hurt the global economy in a huge way. >> yeah. look, i understand that concern. we're in a far different situation than we were in the 1930s. we were in a trade surplus country then. we have a trillion dollars deficit in goods trade every year, and i think if we do this carefully, there's not going to be any sort of consumer shock, and becky, this is important because, you know, we're trying to build some of these industries of the future, and the automotive sector in particular is at the core of american manufacturing. it is responsible directly and indirectly for about 3% of gdp, and so we're in a very delicate time here. china now has enough over capacity to supply somewhere

between 5 and 10 million vehicles into the global market, and all they want is market share. so they'll sell them at dump prices, and that's going to be devastating to auto communities, not only in the united states, but also to the european union, so the stakes are high, and i agree, we need to be careful about our approach to this, but i do think that getting ahead of it is the right answer. >> how is this not inflation nar. american consumers have benefitted for years from global trade that brings us lower priced goods. >> one of the things some of the investments in manufacturing are trying to do in semiconductors and clean energy manufacturing and evs is gradually bring down the costs here in the united states, and i think that we can do that quite effectively, and becky, let's also remember that there's a difference between price and cost. the china price is artificially low.

that is market distorting. in the long run that has external costs that aren't calculated at that point of sale, but they can be devastating. we know about some of the supply chains and the labor issues in china. we know about the methods of production in china, even clean energy goods, which are contributing to pollution. there is a way to do this. and i do know that the inflationary impacts of the tariffs that have been put into place have been negligible. that's not what's driving it. you see groceries or gasoline or the amount of housing stock have been the main drivers of inflation. it hasn't been those goods that have been subject to tariffs, so i am not -- i don't think at all that this would have a lot of upward pressure on inpolice station -- on inflation. i think a strategy that includes tariffs and also those internal mmt investments that we're talking about is going to be good for the consumer in the long run. >> i understand the arguments

about defense, how there are certain areas that we should not be entirely reliant on other countr countries for. that was a lesson that hit home during the pandemic when you saw supply chain issues with everything from medical supplies to semiconductors. what we've done with the chips act and other things with the ira, we are putting through bills where we are subsidizing our own industries. you said this is not fair because china's subsidizing their industries so heavily, but we have our partners, our g-7 partners and our allies who have ac accused us of doing the same things. it's complicated. it does seem there's been a huge shift in what both political parties are kind of focusing on and what they think is the right way to do things from what we've been dealing with for the last 50, 60 years. >> i hear you about that, i want to talk about what the differences are. this is a feature of the chinese communist party system is to

have these five-year plans, to have state-owned enterprises and to acquire technology, innovation and a massively subsidized zone industry, and to do that to export and to gain global market share, the idea, i think both in the united states and in europe is simply to say we need a foundational level of manufacturing in our concerns. this isn't designed to gain a massive export advantage and to build up over capacity in our own markets that will then need to find markets for abroad. it's entirely different than that. in fact, it's a defense mechanism, and as i said, i think it's good for economic national security. i think the consumer benefits in the long run from having those choices rather than from having stayed-owned chinese firms dominate global markets like they do now for instance in steal, glass, solar and so many industries. that really limits our options. >> scott paul from the alliance

for american manufacturing. scott, i want to thank you for your time today. >> becky, thank you. coming up, ronald mcdonald s isn't a fan of the company's ai chat bot test. details next. is that really -- do we know that ronald's not? i don't think he makes any of these big strategic decisions, does he? >> maybe. >> maybe he does. >> maybe using a little bit of license. >> right. as we head to a break, a look at the premarket winners and losers in the s&p 500. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." mcdonald's reportedly firing its artificial intelligence drive-through chat bot, at least for now. the fast food giant told franchisees it's ending its ai partnership with ibm no later than july 26th. the technology will be removed from the more than 100 rauns that are using it, but mcdonald's didn't dismiss the prospect of more drive-through

ai telling trade publication restaurant business it still sees an opportunity to explore voice ordering solutions more broadly. >> trying to figure out how this played out, what it got right, what it got wrong, think about siri when you're talking to her. >> exactly. people order very specific things. >> i didn't order a fish sandwich. i haven't ordered one of those in 40 years. >> you don't? >> i probably haven't had one in 30 years. >> that's what i order. >> do you really? on fridays? >> fillet of fish. >> there's no mcfish. >> i forgot the name, it's been so long since i ordered one of those. it used to be a friday thing in our house. i think it's one of those fish that -- >> has two eyes on top. >> yeah, i think. >> those are pretty good. >> no, it's not. it's probably not, i don't think it's a flounder. i think it's something else. some generic like -- some

generic fish that's probably disappearing. when we come back, we're going to talk corporate taxes with john hope bryant of operation hope and former white house chief of staff mick mulvaney. and later a look at china's ev capital and the country's ev p strategy. eunice yoon visits one chinese vev an.th five, that's right, "saw quk box" will be right back.

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former president trump told a group of ceos that he intends to cut the corporate tax rate from 21% to 20 according to people in the meeting at the business round table last week. meanwhile, president biden says he'd like to raise the corporate tax rate to 28%. joining us now to discuss corporate tax policy and much more is operation hope founder, chairman, and ceo john hope bryant. he's also a cnbc contributor, and mick mulvaney, the former white house chief of staff during the trump administration. mick, you're omb, you know a lot about budgets. what percentage of our annual tax receipts are corporate? is it like 6% or something

versus the -- >> yeah, it's exactly 6. it brought in about $400 billion last year, which is roughly $100 billion more per year than it was before the trump tax cuts went into place in 2017. so it's not that much money. and taking it from 21% to 20%, of all the things we do in washington that negatively impact the budget even on a static basis, that wouldn't be that big of a deal. >> why would we be -- why are we obsessing about it? i saw someone say that 1% that trump's not thinking about how that would add to -- you know, it's a lot of money, but he opportu doesn't know what 1% is. on the other hand we're talking about raising it 7% that. is at least a significant number to corporations that are -- i mean, if it's -- if you believe that corporations and john hope bryant, i'll ask you, you love capital, and you love when -- the way that you want to help people that aren't participating in the economy, you want to do

it through capital. you don't want to necessarily do it through giveaways. you know that small businesses like to use capital. is it a bad thing to have low corporate tax rates, john? >> we live in a free enterprise democracy. 88% of all of our jobs come from the free enterprise system and most all legitimate wealth comes from capitalism and free enterprise. i believe in good capitalism. good to see you, joe. i think that the caravan forgot to pick up mick on the way to the meeting because it would have been a serious conversation if mick mulvaney was there. i think the former president thought he was at a campaign rally and not a meeting of serious people. the business round table, you don't go to a meeting like that and say -- and ask how do you get from 21 to 20 and you say it was just a nice, it was a round number. that's just crazy to me as a thought process. this is the biggest economy in the worl. we're the super power in the world, and these are serious --

>> how do you get to 28? why 28? why raise it at all? >> that's a very good question, and it deserves serious analysis, and so let's look at the analysis. if you know probably by the way -- >> one's up and one's down, i can just start with that. i'd rather go down than up. >> hey, jo, i was actually completing a sentence. >> go for it, john. you know, when you get at a negotiating table and you leave it slightly annoyed, both people leave slightly annoyed, it probably means it was a pretty good negotiation. people are campaigning right now. everybody's campaigning and really talking to their bases but the answer's probably somewhere in the middmiddle. what happened in 2017, it did spur investment. it also created huge l investments. they added about $100 billion. john would know this better than me. add about $100 billion in more debt on the debt and didn't keep

the promises to workers to go from 4,000 to 6,000 benefits per worker. these are debatable numbers. on balance it didn't keep the whole promise, even though it did spur investment. we probably need something that doesn't stifle. we don't want to stifle investment, but you want something that actually -- look our infrastructure is crumbling to be blunt. we need a business plan for this country. i know john agrees with me on this. we need something that spurs investment, but at the same time everything underneath us is falling apart and our people are not inspired. most taxes as you said when we first started this, does not come from corporate. it's mostly from individuals. almost 50%. we need those people to feel this is a ladder they can ascend to. now i'm done. >> mick, did -- is that accurate? did it add to the deficit the corporate tax cut from 2017? >> you know, what's accurate about that, i always enjoy being on here with john.

he's not wrong on the round number sort of thing. if you ask why trump liked 20 instead of 21. he wanted back in 2017 when we cut the deal with congress. there's certainly an element of truth to that. did it add to the deficit, for the short-term tax revenues took down. there's no question when we took the tax rates down in 2017, in the short-term they went down that year before you could get that dynamic sort of impact this the economy. the bottom line is there are $100 billion a year more now than they were in 2017. how much of that is because of the economy is bigger, how much of that is because the tax rate worked, economists are going to fight about that. we're taking in more mow than we were before. i'm one of those folks that think corporations don't pay tax. i think 28 makes no sense. 28, there's no more science behind 28 than there is behind 21 or 20. the motivation of the 28 is it's more than 21, and joe biden has to run saying i'm going to make corporations pay more. is it enough money either way to

impact the economy? no. the question is would you rather have the private sector have that money to do something with it or have the government have that money to do something with it. and that's one of the fundamental differences between the two candidates. >> john, that's where i thought i'd get you to agree with mick, john, because you talk a good game about, you know wanting to spur capital investment and that's how you want to do it. you don't want to just do transfer payments, but i don't know, when it comes right down to it, is that really what you think? >> payroll every two weeks of a million behalf, and four and a half -- >> but you want corporate rates to go up? you think that's a good idea? you want corporate rates? >> i think -- john and i love -- we're good together, and i love him every time. he's not surprised that i think that zero is ridiculous. >> john eas's one of the few pe who calls me by my real name. >> zero is actually a nonstarter is ridiculous. it signals the wrong thing.

a tax is about a signaling of our priorities. and everybody should pay their fair share and corporations ride on the same infrastructure as my mother and grandmother did, god rest their souls. before we finish, i want to talk about this medical debt thing that it has more impact on the average person's life than this discuss about campaign stop that was really a business meeting that somebody misinterpreted. >> all right. go ahead. >> no, you're the anchor, i'm just saying -- i just want to make sure -- >> whenever you're on, john, i know better than to try to direct you anywhere. what do you want to talk about with the medical? >> i just think this is something, joe, that brings us together, and this is something you and i agree on that we're better together, and this d-- yu know, the medical debt situation was reported on your credit report as an incident that really doesn't have any determination whether you're a good person or not. when it appears on your credit

report, it can destroy your whole life. you can't get a 30 year mortgage at great rates because you had an accident that wasn't your fault. this affects everybody in this country, rich, poor, middle class. everybody is involved, and to have this now come off your credit report will push your credit score, joe, 20 points x i think it's a really good thing. it's something that vice president harris pioneered, pushed, helped encourage them to do it. they didn't require much encouragement, and it's something that's right now. this is something that's happening right now, and operation hope has been asked our coaches that work with people to get it off their credit report after it's not required. it will still go on there 9,000 times. that's the habit of these databases. >> okay. mick, do you think that's a good idea? >> joe, actually, if i wanted to be charitable. it's always good to be on here with john. i always enjoy these conversations. this is one of probably the least offensive things that the consumer financial protection bureau is doing.

they actually have a statutory authority to take a look at this. the fair credit reporting act requires them to sort of take a look at this. they also have the fair debt collections practices act to rely on here. if their allegations are correct, if what the cfpb said when they made this announcement, which is number one, they're trying to get rid of debt that people don't owe, and if that's true, by the way, it's actually the cfpb doing its job correctly. secondly, if they really have data and john has helped provide this data, if they really have good data that says there's no correlation between nonpayment of medical debt and other debts, then they have at least a logical argument for why it shouldn't be on credit reporting. for all the things the cfpb does, this is probably one of the least offensive. i've spent some time dealing with credit card frequent flyer miles. the fact that john has been working on this i think has been helpful and maybe it's a move in the right direction, and i don't always say that about the cfpb. >> okay. wow. that sounds like almost common

ground, mick mulvaney, thanks, john hope bryant, rr very good, thank you. >> love you, joe. >> when we come back, china's investment and increntives for investment vehicles. we have a look at one city's efforts to become the ev capital of the country. and former fed governor dan ta ta tarulolo will join us to talk about the fed's rate path, the economy and more. "squawk box" will be right back. whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free.

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china's industrial strategy includes becoming a dominant player in ev manufacturing, and one chinese city is now home to five of those car plants. eunice yoon takes us its the capital and joins us with more. >> becky, just this weekend g7 nations criticized china for what they described as harmful

overcapacity. as i found out in southwestern china, you can understand their concerns. if you're interested in a chinese ev, you might want to visit this area in china's southwest. this city of 4 million people in this province lands itself as an ev capital. for good reason. last year they produced almost half a million electric vehicles of all types. some made at this new energy factry managed by 30-year auto veteran. he is very competitive as a city for new energy vehicle manufacturing, he said. first the cost of manpower is very low and logistics cost is low, third, the industrial foundation is there. he is this is home to five major state-backed carmakers. we're on our way to another automaker. famous for making a car that's used by the government elite. about a mile away, another company making evs.

this motor company, and saic, joint venture with gm hall a $4,000 ev. stating aimed to produce more than 3 million evs a year by 2025, but it's fallen short. data from japanese auto firm mark lines shows the city's factories tos have capacity to the produce three times as many evs as they currently are. hoping to rev up exports 1% of production. the company set up an overseas department last month, despite international criticism of china's overcapacity. it's groundless he says. if cost is low thanks to scale and price more competitive, anyone were compete. right? what the chinese see as competitiveness many other countries view as unfair trading practices. fk in, the u.s., europe, turkey among other countries all raising tariffs on chinese evs.

now the chinese are threatening retaliation. becky? >> yeah. eunice, we talked earlier with head of an american manufacturing group. just laying out their reasoning for thinking that tariffs need toing even higher. what will the chinese do in response to those tariffs, do you think? >> it's difficult to say for sure. we already have one example what they could do in this type situation. you well know, europe had raised tariffs last week coming close to about 50% on chinese evs and today the chinese commerce ministry announced they would launch an anti-dumping investigation into eu pork and pork products. could last 18 months or so, still they could be coming in spain, today announcing hoping for some sort of negotiation. >> thank you very much. coming up, millions of americans are traveling this summer. an update on state of the travel

industry is next, this morning. and a little in the green on s&p and nasdaq dowonn the dow jones. we'll be right back.

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welcome back, everybody. the fourth of july weekend is quickly approaching and already millions of travelers are expected to be taking off. according to travel hopper's 24 million seats expected to depart from u.s. airports. 7% increase from this time last year. joining us now on the outlook for travel and what it's going to cost you is hopper's lead economist haley berg. where are all of these people going? >> seeing a lot of demand to major u.s. cities, which is typical over long weekends. so think new york, seattle, l.a., but as with most summers, europe is top of mind, and there is a tremendous amount of demand also going to london, paris, rome, athens, even tokyo, which is a top destination. >> more people traveling. are they paying more or less than they were last year? >> less. airfare domestically down 18%

compared to this time last year. international airfare down different amounts to different regions, but the good news is, most travelers are paying 10% less or more on some of the most expensive long-haul ticks. >> tickets? >> why is that? fuel prices or something else? >> fuel prices is part. another part is capacity. last summer we saw incredible amounts of demand to destinations in europe and asia in particular. but capacity hadn't recovered. most airlines focused and domestic capacity coming out of the pandemic and weren't there yet on international when international demand exploded. this summer most airlines added back more capacities than theypre-pandemic to some top international destinations. combine that with more normal demand and slightly better jet fuel prices we end up with much better prices than last year. >> what about rental cars once you get there? >> rental cars in the u.s. averaging about $48, which is

pretty much in-line with last year. >> $48 a day? imagine that. always looking at more expensive prices. too many add-ons or paying for insurance or something? >> likely driven where you're willing to pick up a vehicle. take florida, for example. you can get a rental car in florida, most major cities, for about $20 a day, but if you're renting in a city, another major hub, likely you'll see higher prices. >> tired peddling those cars and trucks you're talking about, heyley. $20? you need to send me the list. >> i actually rented a car in florida and i can attest, about $24 a day is what i paid. >> what was the -- evs? trying to get rid of them. >> they're pay you $24 to drive one. >> really.

what kind of warcar was it? >> a minivan. >> what? like $100 a day. >> i get that. here a minivan -- you don't understand. i wouldn't -- i'd pay twice not to have to drive it. >> especially going to orlando. forget it. everybody wants a minivan. anyway, let's talk a little bit about hotels. what about those costs factoring in to it? where does that stand this year? >> on average about $232 per night for a hotel stay, but rental homes are very popular especially in the u.s. for travelers going out with family for the long weekend. those are averaging about $400 a night. or about $200 per bedroom per night. most travelers looking at at least a two-bedroom vacation rental. >> has that capped prices for hotels? have they not gn able to raise prices more, because people prefer to go to an airbnb or brbo? if traveling with family, it's a

heck of a lot cheaper. >> most travelers are making those trade-offs themselves. prices between rental homes and hotels are actually very competitive. what we typically see is that consumers are self-dividing. if it's a larger family, most of the time they're going with the vacation rental. if economics are better. think about a city like miami. oftentimes in cities where there is such a high supply of hotels, it can actually be cheaper to rent multiple hotel rooms than get a vacation rental on the water, for example. in different markets the competition is different, but most of the time we see that hotels and vacation rentals can be pretty comparable, as long as you're not looking at a luxury beachfront house with a pool, et cetera. >> got to run. quickly, haven't booked already, is it too late? >> it's late, but there are still some deals available. you have to be flexible.

depart on fourth of july, come back a weekday the week following and flexible where you go. you might be able to find a deal that way. >> and what you want to drive. ev or minivan. take your choice. >> or a sienna. >> thank you very much, heyley. >> great to be with you. it is 8:00 on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is out today. of our stories, neil cash car neel kashkari, a reasonable prediction the central bank will cut rates once this year and wait until december to do that. cnbc learned after this run starboard pushing for changes at the software company with auto

devg. sp autodesk. an internal investigation led to firing of its cfo. the u.s. surgeon general said he will push for a warning label on social media platforms advising parents using them might damage adolescent health. it requires approval by congress to add warning labels. no's bill like this introduced in either chamber. good luck getting it passed but seems like common sense. futures seeing a divergency between the dow, nasdaq and s&p. treasurys, quite a move last week that we saw. get to mike santoli at the nyse. mike, butterflies? an article in the "journal." i don't know maybe it's just -- i have a sense of foreboding. is everything okay? >> i think everything eis prett much okay but i understand what

you're getting at unease how the market is getting where it's getting and relying on the same areas, same handful of stocks. you mentioned divergence between the s&p, nasdaq and dow. dow doesn't have the stuff working like magic. s&p right now including nvidia. here's the s&p 500 the past year against everything in the s&p except technology. yep. etf, s&p excluding tech and you see kind of still a beautiful liftoff trend in the broader market cap weighted s&p 500. pretty much flat the rest of the market since march. flat is fine. still sitting on gains. definitely doesn't look as strong or as much momentum there. obviously this brang breaks dow size. 50 largest tocks, as a matter of fact. in an etf, 50 largest in russell 1,000 and in the u.s. market. russell 2000, most of the smaller stocks in the market. this is a three-year look. you see how the advantage of larger stocks keeps accruing

here. now, if you want to talk about the good news in this it's that the russell 2000 as a whole has a less market value than either nvidia or microsoft or apple at the moment. almost become as smaller problem but shows parts of the market seem like they're not as well advantaged in terms of earnings growth. maybe they need rate cuts and relief on financial conditions for themselves. still not working. that's where you have this little dissidence within the market. i think that's relevant. a ten-year treasury yield. interesting decline last week. didn't help the small caps or banks, but kind of interesting to see the level we're getting to. the peak in october where thereabouts 2022. back then seemed like a super challenging level meaning higher longer. would the economy handle it?obv later could handle that and higher even. at these levels seems comfortable.

wouldn't want to the say a massive raise. focusing on current deceleration in the u.s. economy to break down into something a little worse. >> we're going to stay along these lines now, mike, with our next guest. trying to figure out what's happening with tech. joining us now, deepwater asset management managing partner, and some of the points you make are interesting, but i think it does make sense given what we're seeing with a.i., but you point out that valuations in tech are sort of upside-down. typically software companies traded at 30% premium. hardware companies on revenue multiple and now it's hardware at a 15% premium to software. go on, there's another, something else. as far as earnings. it same story with earnings but it's all about a.i. and the buildout is starting in hardware and down the road i guess we'll see software benefits?

>> that's the hope. i think that's the story, joe, that investors are trying to work through right now. we're obvious ly seeing inflection nvidia poster child. revenue trajectory from the infrastructure spend and haven't yet really seen it on the software side. that explains divergence we're seeing now in the multiples between hardware and software companies. i do think it probably makes sense to start to try to look at some of these software names but the challenge, to me is, you have to be really patient, because we're still really early, in our view, in terms of this a.i. infrastructure bill and could even last several more years. say there's a relative value here, you may have to wait several years before this hardware thing even starts to slow down. >> you would say, this is all to be expected? where we are? on plan right now? everything -- there's no trouble signs yet from these, the --

what you're seeing? it is different. right? >> it is. i think -- you know, we ask this question, what's different now? because there's a lot of things that rhyme when we see these technologically-driven booms and bull musarkets. things rhyme with the dotcom bottom of just 25 years ago. but there are things different here, too. particularly different, machine intelligence is almost entirely reliant on commute. it's entirely reliant on infrastructure and sort of scales linearly right now. the more infrastructure we build, the more data wee using in models the smarter that our a.i. gets. until that paradigm changes it's hard to see why this hardware would slow down, because ultimately the biggest companies in the world have a lot of money to spend. if they can create artificial general intelligence it would be a huge win for them. >> if, totally sold on a.i. and

the future, is it too late to buy nvidia j.t.? should you look down the food chain a little for something that's not, you know, that's undiscovered? relatively. >> hard to find the undiscovered one, joe. trying to look a little more down the food chain. i mean, two names down that food chain we do like are arista, annette. positive commentary related to broadcom strong earnings last week, where there's good adoption trends for ethernet in data centers and a risk to make switches directly beneficial to that. vertage. vrt, another name. making liquid cooling for data centers. think how will a.i. evolve? chips will get faster. draw more power. they'll need unique cooling solutions to handle it heat that these chips throw off. they offer a solution for that. look down the chain you can find

companies that still have these catalysts, maybe not fully realized yet. that's the way to play hardware. >> okay. have to leave it there. two good ideas, doug. thank you. >> thanks, joe. when we come back, getting into economy policies and more with florida congressman byron donalds. he met with the former president. "squawk box" will be right back.

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former president donald trump made his rounds in washington, d.c. ahead of the first 2024 presidential debate next week. the former president talk and various policies that he thinks would help the economy including replacing the federal income tax with an all tariff policy. joining us now florida republican congressman byron donalds who met with the former

president. that is kind of a long shot. don't you think, congressman? >> look, i think the president is talking through a lot of different ideas. people need to always remember, his entire focus is on making sure that lives for all americans flourishes once again. consumers are struggling really at historic rates when you look at the biden inflation, crippling families. looking at all different ideas trying to take their measure. still a long way to go but demonstrates he's thinking clearly and deeply about what's troubles americans and not just being caught in the same trap of washington, d.c. we've been through this particular before. tax cut and jobs act was something the washington establishment did not like and turned out great tax policy for the american people and the federal government raised record revenue as a result. >> like so many things, congressman, it's almost the rorshach test, because democrats

say the thing we definitely need to do, let all of those things expire, this next time, and because it only benefited the wealthy. it blew out the deficit. nothing good came of what happened in that, the tax cuts of 2017. what is a normal, you know, american, that pays some attention to these things, but where do you get the actual data that allows you to make an informed decision on something like that? because it's -- i don't want to the say polar opposite. it's redundant, but you have opposite takes. alternate facts on what the effects of those tax cuts were. >> well, i mean, look. my democratic colleagues, they've never liked tax cuts, because their view is that when you centralize more funds into the federal treasury things work better. i think that's personally insane, but what's that they think. the reality has been art laffer

ras proven correct by tcja or what we call the trump tax rates. more economic output coming into our country and economy and the federal treasury took a record percentage of that increased economic growth. so if you just look at the basic statistics that come from the bureau of labor statistics about economic growth, if you go to the treasury and ask them wham percentage of revenue are you getting from the economy? you are getting record 20% of an increased economy under donald trump's tax policy. as far as i'm concerned that's basic math. that is a winning strategy for america. so the democrats were proven completely wrong, which is why they've mostly been quiet about the trump tax policy until very recently, because now we have a presidential election. they want to the play politics, of course. >> do you have a, sort of a

prognosis for what we see in ten days at the debate? congressman? >> well, i think what you're going to see is a very contrasting view of the current state of america. i mean, surprise, surprise. they're going to disagree about the current state, but i think what you'll see from president trump is he is going to go through his plans, how they impacted america and joe biden's reversal of so many of his strategies his plans for america and what that's done to our country. i'm not quite sure what to expect from joe biden. i really don't have a view on him and what he's going to do. i think president trump will demonstration once again his policy agenda was the correct recipe for the united states and you're seeing that in support from the working-class people of america, and now from the finance and business sector of america. everybody knows the truth, that the trump agenda did work for america, and it will work for america again.

>> i don't know -- both sides are going to, you know, get down in the, in the dirt. i see it happening already. you know, president biden is getting a lot of advise to go harder january 6th, and i guess the makeup of the supreme court. some of the recent decisions. bump stocks. i don't know what you think about that. what should republican doss? republicans do? i was saying earlier you have to probably as a democrat, you have to acknowledge there's a chance that kamala harris would eventually ascend to the presidency. don't you? i mean -- i say, don't believe your eyes, but is that what republicans should be focusing on? i mean, that's a real possibility, that that will be the outcome eventually. >> i think it is a possibility, but at the end of the day the democrat agenda remains the same. whether it's joe biden who i believe is going to be their nominee. he's going to be top of the

ticket. he is running for president. kamala harris or anybody else. the policies will not change. let's take example of banking regulatory policy in the united states. the democrats right now are heavily pushing for increased capital requirements on the banking system. well, listen. the large banks will probably be fine. they'll get through that. you know, talk to them privately they don't understand why we're even doing this but will probably be okay. who really struggles? community banking will continue to fall off in the united states. your regional banks will struggle under this type of capital raising regime. so when you do this kind of policy, who really struggles in the end? it is your mom and pop small business trying to find capital to either keep their business afloat or to grow their business in a reasonable way. you couple that with this massive inflation, which every democrat voted for, every democrat supported when they did the american rescue plan, the inflation reduction act. all of that was massive spending. our economy simply did not need.

it created a labor shortage, which created a massive inflation in our economy, and the american consumer has not recovered. so like i said. whether it's joe biden, kamala harris, bernie sanders, elizabeth warren, gavin newsom. doesn't matter. they are going to follow the same terrible economic agenda, which may be great if you're in silicon valley but not good for the average american. >> yeah. i didn't mean -- the president on the ticket. i just think five years is just a long time, congressman. and -- i don't know. i don't see how it proves -- did you fill out some type of due diligence? even if not, who who's your top pick for former president trump's vice president? >> well, i mean, look. when it comes to what's going on with the vice presidency, i don't get into that. i'm not going to share what goes on with the trump organization. the trump campaign. they're going to make that decision. look, i think that the president's going to make a very

good decision. i know i'm on that list. a lot of my colleagues on the list. we're all very capable. end of the date donald trump is going to make that decision. i'm going to smorupport it and ready to go win back the white house this november. >> 140 days see you again. make this? get through it together? going to be okay? >> we're americans. we get through everything including the worst presidency we've ever seen. >> okay. good final thought. thank you. when we come back, elon musk got his pay package approved. what will shareholders get in return? will the old musk return to tesla? we tackle that question next. and the nfl on trial over its sunday ticket package. commissioner roger goodell is expected to take the stand. more on the case just ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people.

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voted to approve elon musk's pay package. many investors hope this will be return of the old elon with ren manufacturing. joining us to talk about this and more, "wall street journal" business clumpist and cnbc contributor. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> onstage dancing around telling him he loves these share shareholders. is this the return of old? >> it seem it's. worrying some investors the sad, angry elon. here the elon that excites these investors and excites the market about the potential for what tesla can do and the concern for so many months has been that elon was distracted some place else, going to leave. the idea could bring attention to tesla is definitely what these investors are so excited about. >> the investors voted for this, but it still has to go through

the delaware court process. is that potentially convoluted. look, they did what the judge was saying they didn't do last time around. hard to imagine they voted in favor of it this time and didn't know what they were talking about? so much written and spoken about it. >> it's argument tesla will make. this turnout, excitement, will bolster their case as they appeal this, but legal experts say this is going to be decided in the courts. multiple scenarios could play out. the judge could say, yes, exactly. tesla shareholders knew what they were doing and maybe not agree. this could potentially likely go to the delaware supreme court. >> okay. set this part aside, because there have been questions raised about tesla, about its future, and those can still stick around, too. stock under pressure. >> it's interesting. when we saw him onsage so much excitement about robots and a.i. core issues for tesla are in the today carmaking business. metal bashes is tough and tess.

>> larry: is in a slump. evs not excite as exciting in past years for consumers and tesla really is kind of going to market with old vehicles and so there's concern there that maybe they are on their back foot. >> robotaxis. said that's basically heart of the plan and they're going to have with full self-driving an entire robotaxi business that you can put your car in, your tesla in, whoever you choose to do it, or take it out? how far away is that promise? >> seems pretty far away. we don't know everything under the hood obviously but haven't seen technology suggesting they're ready to do that today. for example, i live in san francisco and can see waymos going around the city without people in them. tesla hasn't put that technology in play yet. >> how many in san francisco? we don't see them here. >> all the time. morning run, i have a game, take pictures and send them to my

niece so she can see them. >> i would love to see them too, in terms of bringing down accidents. >> it will be improving safety. we've seen in san francisco real hesitance among residents when these cars get into crashes, because we're a little less forgiving if a robot crashes into you. >> somebody has to be responsible. liability question on the other side of it, too. your article goes on to take a look at some of the shareholders and pension funds. who are unhappy with some other issues, too. just the idea of a divided elon in terms of where his attention goes, and in terms of where the resources go. >> absolutely. for years can elon has been making the case tesla is this a.i. company, this self-driving car company. a big play for a.i. now doing one of his other start-ups is an a.i. company.

xai. concern he's taking best ideas elsewhere and that doesn't sit well with them. >> what can be done about it? >> that's the question. litigation filed. elon made the case he thinks both companies can help each other. >> yeah. tim, thank you for joining us. good to see you out here on this coast. >> good to see you. >> aww, that's right. you're in-person. >> i'm here. >> an avatar. coming up the fed's rate path. minneapolis fed president says the december rate cut is a reasonable prediction. we're going to see if former fed governor daniel tarullo shares the same view as kneneel kashka. "squawk box" is coming right back. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you.

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welcome back to "squawk box." the s&p turned slightly into the red at this point. dow down most of the session. nasdaq stubbornly higher up 29 points. treasurys, ten year had a big rally last week obviously with yields fall itting down to the 42 area. 4216 and bitcoin dropped under 70,000.

continued to sell off. down another 1.5% just above 65,000ing right now for the fed's inflation fight and rate path we should anticipate. for that bring in dan tarullo former fed governor who led the central bank's regulatory reforms in wake of the financial crisis and now a harvard law school professor and, daniel, thank you for joining us this morning. joe was just referencing this huge spike we've seen in treasurys with the yields coming down significantly. ten year below 3 h.4%. is the market aechting correctly what the fed's next move? a rate cut maybe sooner rather than later? >> well, one thing for sure, becky. the market isn't paying too much attention to the dot plot. the dot plot last week. i mean, i don't know. you know, the markets go up, go down. they tend to overreact a bit to the latest string of data.

so i'm not reading very much more into today's market reaction than i am to the dot plot last week. >> we had neel kashkari, heard over the weekend said on one of the news programs that he thinks that you will get one rate cut and could be in december. does that sound like a likely scenario? >> it doesn't seem to be what the chair tried to project in his news conference last wednesday, becky. >> no. >> i thought jay powell went out of his way to present as neutrally as possible. he did a good bit of work trying to get people to de-emphasize the set, the dot plot. he emphasized there had been progress on inflation, but they ple needed to see more, be more comfort. he talkeded about the fact the labor market struck him as tight, not overheated. doing his best for the fomc and

not project anywhere. one thing to say, though. if you think a september cut, they've got to set that up no later than jackson hole, and there are only two pce readings between now and jackson hole. and so that means that either the chair and others on the committee need to be putting more emphasis on a cooling of the labor market. maybe moving from tight to strong as well as a couple of good inflation prints, or else, if they want more good inflation prints, september's going to it be a little hard to pull off. again, i think that goes back to the fact that powell said we look at the totality of the data, a way of keeping optionality. >> and i guess that's what you want at this point. to wait and really if you're truly data-dependent see what the next few prints are before you get too far out there? >> absolutely. i mean, look, sometimes in the past i think it may have been fair to criticize the fed for not having sort of a narrative

and a view how the economy was performing and what the key factors were. but at this point, after the last couple of years, it's pretty hard not to sympathize with there ir being more reliann the past, the incoming data, and less confident as a projection where things are going. i mean, just about everybody has been surprised multiple times in the past few years, and so i think their position and the chair's position is quite understandable right now. >> where do you think we are? >> i continue to think that we are probably moving in the direction of that. softer landing. maybe soft-ish landing as opposed to totally soft, but, you know, having said that, i'm going to go back to what i just said a minute ago, which is, we all, myself included, have been surprised multiple times, and so, you know, i wouldn't put

anymore confidence in my projection than in anybody else's. >> in terms of the risks that are at play, i mean, you've got central banks and other places including the ecb already cutting rates. does that put additional pressure on the fed to do the same? >> i don't think so, becky. i mean, you know, the economics of, say, europe. the eurozone and the u.s. are pretty different right now. i mean, we have been quite resilient. i think more than a lot of people expected. you know, even with some cooling moderate cooling in the labor market it's still pretty strong. i think most people are expecting gdp to be rebounding after the first quarter. so under those circumstances, you know, you face different circumstances you have to have different monetary policy. >> boals political parties talking about tariffs,

ratcheting them up, using them for frequently. does that cause concern what it will mean for the economy, what consumers pay and what it will mean for global trade? >> i think it's -- here's one perspective on it. that for many years there was a rough consensus in the middle of both parties for tariff-cutting and more trade, and you know, in all honesty, i think there was a lack of attention to some of the impact, a lot of the impact, that that had on workers and communities throughout the country. and by the way, becky, i think that lack of attention has fed into some of the political anger on both sides of the political spectrum. that is, that is so dominant now. now we've got -- so you've got that in the background and now we've got the additional issue of industrial policy, national security-related trade activity.

and i think that's why the situation you just described is the one we've got. which is, both parties being not so free-trade oriented. obviously, you know, the concern would be if it goes beyond a well-thought-throughway of moderating, you knows massive worker displacement or not protecting national security, into a kind of just shutting down trade channels that people nay may not realize are important for the kind of goods that all americans have gotten used to. so i, i understand the direction that people have gone, and my concern is, you know, is it going to be well-throughout-through? are people going to keep perspective as opposed to just kind of trying to one-up one another with more trade-restrictive proposals. >> dan tarullo, thanks for joining us today.

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the nfl sunday ticket, still going on in los angeles with a couple big-named witnesses set to take the stand this week. julia boorstin join us with more. >> good morning, joe. today about half way through the scheduled trial of this class action lawsuit against the nfl filed back in 2015. today we expect commissioner roger goodell to take the stand

later this morning in this high-profile case and cowboys owner jerry jones later today or tomorrow. plaintiffs argue the nfl and 32 teams predicted competition selling out of market games exclusively through the sunday ticket package sold by directv saying that enabled them to charge artificially higher prices for out of market games. plaintiffs estimate damages at $7 billion. because this is an antitrust case, damages could be tripled to as much as $21 billion. now, the nfl disagrees. chief media officer testified last week saying that sunday ticket is a high-value premium product complementary to its other offerings. pointing to free broadcasts of inmarket games on broadcast networks. something no other sports league offers. closing arguments scheduled to finish up on the 25th of june. we could potentially find out the outcome from the jury by end of this month. joe, heading down there later

this morning to watch the testimony. >> okay. that will give you a front-row seat. sounds good. thanks, julia. report back. all right. "thanks, joe." did you see the tip to thank myself? >> you're pretty good at that. >> yeah. up next, a rundown of movers and get you ready for the week ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. and unforgettable scenery with viking. unpack once, and get closer to iconic landmarks, local life, and cultural treasures. because when you experience europe on a viking longship, you'll spend less time getting there and more time being there. viking. exploring the world in comfort. is it me... or is work not working?

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all right, let's get to dom chu with some of today's movers. >> becky, joe, let's kick thing off with a check on a home builder, toll brothers, which is higher by just about a percent or so, roughly 5,000 shares of trading volume. it's getting help from analysts at goldman-sachs who have upgraded that stock. the target price goes up to 124 bucks. it was $112 to get in line with a little bit more with the current price after a 16% gain on a year to date basis. they think a better macro

backdrop will help drive profitability and revenue. toll brother shares getting help there. and next up, you got shares of micron, 450,000 shares of volume. the maker of computer memory chips is getting a target price bump from bank of america up to 170 bucks. they maintain the buy rating. the move is driven in part by increasing expectations about the effect of artificial intelligence being put on consumer devices and the chips needed to power them. so, micron shares up. by the way, for more on that and other top stories, head over to cnbc.com/prosubscribers. let's end with apple. big catch-up happening here on the back of its developers conference. you can see the massive move higher. now $213 a share, 75 cents and change. all of this putting into front and focus, joe and becky, this idea that maybe apple is due for that bigger catch-up to the

broader tech trade and could be the powering force behind another move higher if there is one, joe. back to you guys. >> dom, thanks. for more on the markets, let's bring in mona, senior investment strategist at edward jones, and you are positive. you think bull markets last longer than bear markets, and are we halfway through? are we a third of the way through? >> it's a good point, joe. if history is any guide, we ran the numbers recently. the average s&p 500 bull market lasts about 5.6 years. it's up 192%. even if you take out the last two big ones, 4.3 years and 125%. we're about a year and a half into this bull market and up about 50%. so, you know, history tells us we could have some time. we could also have some price appreciation on our side. not going go up in a straight line higher. we know that. but do we use that volatility to our advantage, and, you know, use it for opportunities to invest in better parts of the market? absolutely. >> does it have to be tech?

does it have to be led by tech? do i have to own tech? is there any other economy worth investing in now? >> tech is going to be part of the story for the next three to five years at least. we know a.i. is nitin its infan. we think it's a multiyear secular bull market in a.i., but diversification is important. we think, as a.i. will start with the enablers, the infrastructure players, it will spread to the sectors that benefit from the efficiencies,financial services, health care, manufacturing will have robots involved in it. there will be other sectors that participate, but we think we need to see that balance. we also think earnings growth, it was all about tech q1 and maybe even q2. by q3 and q4, you will see other sectors start to play catch-up. >> do we need to count on washington for anything? at least not to -- >> we never count on washington. >> i'd like to count on them not to get to $50 trillion in the next four years. >> as good point.

we're in an election year. elections do cause volatility. the debt will have to be addressed in some way, taxes move up or spending moves down or a combination of both. we think for now, the deficit, it is elevated, but you look at japan, 200% debt to gdp versus us at 100%. they've gone through their period of stagnant growth, stagflation. we haven't gotten there yet. growth in this economy has been pretty good. inflation, of course, is moderating now, but generally speaking the elevated level of deficits, yoellow flag but hasnt been a red flag for us thus far. >> so, the u.s. economy is going to do what it's going to do regardless of the political backdrop, then. >> we think fundamentals drive it and you can see that from history as well. there tends to be volatility prior to election day. afterwards, we tend to do pretty well. we're in year four of a four-year election cycle. that tends to be the second best year of a four-year election cycle so that test gives us some comfort, regardless of who gets

in that. >> most of your points are positive across the board. any worry about, i mean, the debt doesn't have to grow for debt service to make it -- make it hard to, you know, to keep for commercial real estate due, to roll debt over. even the government's got to roll it over. none of that is going to be an impediment? maybe a damper but won't derail anything? >> to your point, with the government spending more on interest payments, it's spending less on productive things like r&d and infrastructure. over time, that weighs on potential growth of an economy, and we are seeing pockets of weakness in areas like small regional banks that have exposure to commercial real estate. has it been systemic thus far? not so much. our positivity probably comes more from what we're seeing in the numbers in realtime, which is a consumer that's holding up a labor market that may be cooling, but the fed looking more and more poised to start cutting rates. so, it's not a bad backdrop for long-term investors.

>> and inflation was a supply chain aftereffect more than a money supply problem? >> yeah, certainly, the supply chain was a big part of the goods inflation and that's almost worked itself out. of course, the services component is what we're watching for next. we haven't seen meaningful cracks lower, but we're seeing signs that, you know, the unemployment rate has ticked up. that job openings number has ticked meaningfully lower. the good news is supply is increasing, demand of labor is moving lower. it creates better balance but probably will show up in wage gains more than anything, shofter wage gains. >> softer wage gains. so you figure we do get to 2%, the fed's target some day? >> we get close. for this year, looking for sub-3%, and probably, you know, will get somewhere in the 2-2.5% range over the next 12 to 24 months. the fed sees it by 2026, but they've also increased their long-term forecast to 2.8%, so they clearly see the direction of travel being a little bit stickier than what we've got

engine in his history. >> would you advise clients to go abroad for investments or can you do it here, solely? >> we think a large chunk of it is in the u.s. we talk about the a.i. names. those are all housed in the u.s., but a lot of companies that are abroad, they are financials, health care, manufacturing, all those companies that may benefit one day from the a.i. trade. valuations are better, and by the way, the euro zone economy looks like it's coming out of a slump. and so, interesting set-up. certainly a part of your allocation could be for diversification purposes alone in those regions. >> so, when the -- i think of them as the soviets. when russia sends warships to cuba or china goes into taiwan, none of these -- just, like, none of that is problem -- there are some big issues in the world. >> 100%. >> but you can't -- what are you going to do? you're not going to hide under your bed. >> geopolitics, hard to

handicap. tend to manifest itself through the commodity markets. we've seen that in russia-ukraine and more recent conflicts. but all we've seen is a temporary spike in wti, commodities, and then u.s. comes out with more supply or we find a way to get supply to our allies and then we see cooling. the real chill risk is escalation. if there is some meaningful escalation, there's meaningful downside as well. hopefully, we're not going in that direction. >> one last thing to think about. do we go full bore with the transition, the energy transition? are we going to be able to manage that effectively? i mean, it's just had, maybe it's three steps forward, two steps back, but it's definitely had a couple of steps back. >> yeah, it's a great point. we don't have the infrastructure yet in place, and people are feeling that. they're not buying the evs because of that. prices are still pretty high on the electric vehicle side alone. we need to manage that process. but you know, we do think that there has to be at least, to

your point, a couple more steps forward in that direction, just for long-term sustainability. and so, clean energy will be still a balance with traditional energy. what's comforting to us, a lot of the traditional players are starting to do a lot more in the clean space. even utility companies starting to do more in that space. there are opportunities, we think, forming in both sides of the space. that's the nice part for investors. >> we're $12 trillion into it, and we're 1% less fossil fuels than before. i mean, it's -- it's really going to -- >> yeah. >> it will pick up eventually? and i do see -- have you seen the memes where, this is environmentally friendly? and you see some horrific broken-down solar panel field versus cows? you've seen that. we definitely want to do it this way? >> we have had to rely on traditional energy over the past few years. >> and we're going to until 2050. >> yeah, it's going to be a prt of our economy and for sure we're going to have to figure us

how to do that in a better and more efficient way. >> all right. they got nothing. >> i love this, around the world. >> you got -- you're, like -- you're not worried about anything. i'm worried about everything. >> let's talk about after november 5th. we'll talk again. >> that might worry you. thank you, mona. >> fantastic. that does it for us today. join us tomorrow. we'll be back here. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, mike santoli at post nine of the new york stock exchange. cramer and faber have the morning off. futures, a bit soft on this holiday-shortened week after the nasdaq's record close on friday. s&p now up 7 of 8 weeks as more strategists raise their targets over the weekend. our road map begins with wall street's bullish expectations. the s&p getting a new top target of 6,000 and eyeing its 30th record of the year. plus, big tech's domin