tv Street Signs CNBC June 21, 2024 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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and that's my promise. ♪ welcome to "street signs." happy friday. i'm silvia amaro and these are your headlines. the year extend losses while the french services sector falls deeper into contraction territory. imf managing director tells cnbc exclusively that europe is on the right path, but must seize the opportunity of the single market or must risk
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losing out. >> europe looks like an ideal supermarket for the united states. a lot of what is invented here is commercially viable and scale over there. when you look at the main obstacle, 27 countries not yet integrated in a single market. bitter taste for investors as carlsberg shares lose the fizz with the takeover bid of more than 3 billion pounds. uk retail sales surprise to the upside potentially forcing a rethink at the bank of england a day after it left the door open to a potential rate cut in august. welcome to the show,
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everyone. we start today's edition looking at the latest pmi data out of the eurozone. the flash pmi came in at 45.6. that is actually below what markets were expecting going into this data release. it also is slightly lower, in fact, from the previous reading. manufacturing struggling a little bit. when it comes to services, the actual flash pmi came in at 52.6. that is also below what analysts had forecast and also lower than the number we had seen in the prior month. looking at the overall composite figure, that came in at 50.8. that is also lower, a lot lower, compared to what analysts were pricing in and, indeed, below what we had seen in the previous
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month. in alall we also seeing a littl bit of downside momentum with the services sector when you look at the numbers and they are still above the level considered in contraction. all in all, this is the summary from the flash pmi figures we are seeing this morning. this is after we saw the data from the different countries earlier today. there was disappointment in france and germany with the composite services and manufacturing figures from across both economies all coming in below expectation. the overall figure from the eurozone is very much in line with what we had seen earlier today from france and germany. i'm pleased to say chris williamson a s&p global is joining us. good to have you here, chris. first and foremost, tell us the
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overall picture with the eurozone. clearly, the flash composite is showing a softening in the eurozone economy at this stage. >> yes, a disappointment. everyone really was expecting the economic growth rate to continue to pick up and signs of recovery were hoped for in june. it is disappointment you had a waning in the expansion. the eurozone level and these numbers are down to gdp growing at the quarterly rate of 1.1% in june. second quarter is looking stronger at 2.1%. let's not get too despondent about this. we have seen a bit of a setback in june. this is pretty broad based. an increased rate of decline there. the sector has been showing signs of pulling out of this downturn up to may. setback up to june in the recovery path if you like.
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service sector showing more resilience and better signs of life there. we do need to bear in mind that the numbers for france were particularly weak. you've had the snap election being called. the results were collected after the snap election was tied in. we saw a lot of companies saying decision making and spending had been affected by that. a bit of a pause in spending, as you might second for france. look at these numbers in that context as well. perhaps not as bad as they might have been had that snap election not been called. >> all right. i would like to focus on manufacturing for a little bit longer if i may. in the month of may, the data had suggested that the manufacturing was, to some ex extent, stabilizing. looking at the numbers, that's clearly not the picture. can you state the reasons why manufacturing is struggling more this month? >> we dobtdn't have a great deaf
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color. put things in context. may had seen quite a bit of improvement. maybe a bit of payback from the jump in may and that recovery path. if you look at the trend, it is still possibly something you could argue we are still on the recovery path and had a bit of a wobble in that. there are certain signs that things aren't well in the eurozone manufacturing. the decision is broad based. germany is especially weak. it is evident in france and across the eurozone as a whole. the manufacturing data deteriorated across the board. there is the ongoing structural problems in europe, especially germany. a big focus on the ougauto industry. having huge problems with the transition to evs and being reluctant to take on new cars and expecting prices to fall,
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for example. germany's been hard hit by that. it's been hard hit by the energy transition as well with the weaning off of the gas situation following the invasion of ukraine. that's still ongoing. we are still seeing companies adjusting to that. costs are still relatively high, including the u.s. and asia. it is fighting this on a number of fronts. the recovery is not there yet. >> all right. you've mentioned earlier a bit of an impact here from the fact that the french president announced the snap elections. could you just explain a little bit better what has been the overall impact of this announcement and to what extent could this impact actually have spillover effects into other eurozone economies. >> well, we are just getting companies saying the political
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uncertainty has been caused by that and the potential for policy decisions to change in the wake of any government the al change. it's just causing them and their customers to pause spending at the moment and pause investing to see what that political environment looks like pending the results of that election, which is understandable in many cases. we often see elections cause a hiatus in spending and economic activity. so this is no different to that, really. it could have spillover in economies if you see the more populous shift and the resulting policies changing on the back of that that might affect businesses. there is potential for some cont contagion, if you like, on that front. you have to watch the bond markets as well. at the moment, all we're seeing here is businesses just saying we're just seeing a pullback in
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demand in spending. it should be temporary pending what we see. let's see what comes out at the other end of it. that weakening demand situation has brought pressure off prices and this is where the ecb might be a little bit more encouraged. there's a disinflationary trend in manufacturing, but in services, the key area that the ecb is watching, you aring seeing some real easing of inflationary pressures there, notably in france where prices barely rose in june. service sector selling price was 50.2. disinflationary territory in services in france now. likewise in germany, selling price inflation is back to the pre-pandemic trend. across the eurozone as a the whole, you are looking at the industries looking to come in line with the ecb's 2% target.
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>> speaking of the ecb, you were leading to my next point because this is the first pmi data we are getting in the wake of the announcement of the ecb of the rate cut. ultimately, what our businesses are saying regarding monetary policy, are they betting or hoping for further cuts throughout the year? >> yeah. there is an expectation there. we've got business confidence. it did have a setback. that was the political uncertainty that pulled that back. underneath that, there is a nice base of survey respondents that say they do expect the consumer picture to brighten as we go through the year on the back of the cost prices and rate of inflation as the well as that pullback in interest rates. if you look at these data on their own they are consistent
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with the ecb cutting later in the area. we hv year. we have that with us in september and december. it is too early in the next month or so to see any real change. this data that we've got today is certainly adding to that belief that the monetary policy at the moment is restrictive and taking its toll on activity, but having the desired effect in that service sector. >> let's see what will happen when it comes to new ecb announcements. thank you for joining us today and digest the latest pmi figures. that was chris williamson at s&p global markets. and the imf's georgieva warn there is is no time to waste boosting economic activity in a more competitive landscape.
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the fund expects the region to pick up this year and the next particularly as the ecb unwinds the tight monetary policy stance. it urged member states to embark on greater integration on the goals of climate and productivity. karen caught up with the director and asked if europe is finally on a clear growth plan. >> what we are seeing is inflation is receding and it allows ecb to start rate cutting. good for both investments and consumers in the eu. economic performance is strengthening. we project growth this year twice the level of last year from 0.4. we got to 0.8%. we project doubling this for
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next year. 1.5%. what is very important is that at the same time, the euro area is now focusing on critical questions for the future. among them, number one, how to lift up productivity at par with competitors, especially with the u.s. >> let me bring up the inflation question, too. the ecb like other central banks concern of the restrictive policy has not done enough to target inflation and still a concern with the pick up of the numbers here and if the geopolitics gets into the way. what is the risk we have not done enough work to tame inflation if we don't risk further interest rate cuts and we undermine the growth story? >> it will be necessary for ecb to continue to carefully monitor incoming data. they will continue to take
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decisions meeting by meeting, but what we observe is while, indeed, there has been some setback here in our places, the trajectory clearly is downward. we think that getting to the terminal rate of 2.5% is in sight. in our projections, we anticipate more cuts this year and next year and that is based on the fact that even services inflation, which has been tougher to bring down, is starting to cool off. of course, we live in a time when the economies is impacted more than usual by political factors. they have to be carefully observed, but globally, the
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picture is better than we feared a year ago. that also translates into better conditions for recovery in the eu. >> you heard kristalina georgieva highlighting how geopolitics and political uncertainty are, indeed, a concern and that is having an impact on the markets. we have the stoxx 600 stratrade eg inging lower. the stoxx 600 gained almost 1% and posted the third positive session in four. however, the rhetoric this morning seems to be a little the bit different. i want to take you to the week-to-date performance. this is an important week for the markets. it is worth keeping in mind we heard from three central banks on top of the markets digesting with the potential trade wars
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with europe and china and a lot of corporate developments as well. looking at the week to date performance. the ftse is on track to end the week higher by 1.3%. yesterday, we heard from the bank of england keeping rates on hold, however, markets and investors are actually increasing their expectations that they will see a rate cut happening in august. just briefly, as we are keeping a closer eye on francise as we t closer to the election, the cac 40 ended the week higher by 2%. let me take you to the corporate developments this morning. britvic rejected two bids from carlsberg. britvic says the 12.50 figure under values the company as well as the current and future prospects. it will consider any further
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proposal on its pmerits. carlsberg says it is considering the decision. we have shares of britvic rallying up 11% and carlsberg down 8%. and zealand pharma is seeing record highs after promising weight loss drugs. it saw weight loss results of 8.6%. it is trading the rest of the market up by almost 20%. it goes to show how important the rhetoric around weight loss drugs has become. looking at u.s. futures as we approach the open on wall street. they are suggesting it will be a
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negative start to the trading session on wall street. we have a lot of data releases due today, including manufacturing pmi and services pmi for the united states. existing home sales as well and on top of that, we are monitoring any commentary from the fed officials as well. this is an important week for the tech sector. let's see what verydevelopments we'll have on the nasdaq later on. coming up on the show, china's strict regulations could eel eat away at the a.i. rollout. arjun will bring us the details next. switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. take full control of your brand with your own custom store. scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel. and sell more with the
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arjun, explain why this is a topic people are talking about? >> apple made the splash at the worldwide developers conference and the big theme was a.i. bringing a.i. across all of apple's products at this point. one thing that wasn't mentioned was china. the most important market. the reason is there are increasingly strict laws around a.i. that will prevent apple from bringing products to the market. there are a number of issues they could face. one is on siri. a partnership with siri and openai's chatgpt. some issue in china, chatgpt is banned. apple will need to find a third party there. perhaps baidu or alibaba. apple runs on its own a.i. models on the smartphone or device or in the cloud.
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if you are bringing out a model in china, that needs to be approved by the regulatregulato. apple needs to submit this to the regulators before it is an approved. apple made a huge play about privacy. any a.i. processes processed in the cloud will not be seen by apple. that data will not be stored and it relies on encryption. in china, chinese customer data on icloud are stored on servers run by a third party. if apple is saying cloud compute is run on its own servers, it issing interesting to see if they can replicate that in china. it is interesting to see if the chinese authorities are on board with that. those are the three big areas. >> it feels is there a dilemma here. you have the privacy element and whether apple is likely, at all, to use the a.i. servers. on top of that, the possibility of having to choose a domestic
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partner here. ultimately, what do you think is more likely for apple to succeed? >> i think it will be a marathon, not a sprint, as one analyst described it to me. perhaps we may see a situation where apple slowly introduces features not in the way it is in, say, the u.s. or elsewhere. where you see a partnership with siri or one of the big providers and maybe apple figures out a way to bring the a.i. models to china. one thing the ceo tim cook has been good at is figuring out the play with the regularing legis regulations and the app store and the rules that govern the internet space in china. apple has found a way to figure it out. i suspect they are looking at this very closely. >> actually, luckily for our audience, there are more details
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online. to read the full analysis on the story, head to cnbc.com. before i let you go, i have another follow-up question. what can we expect from the next? >> we visited station f, the biggest startup campus in paris, france. we got a scene of the other startups. one in germany and the netherlands. >> a lot of hopes in france they can their own silicon valley. you can subscribe to the "beyond the valley "podcasts. that is with our arjun and tom. coming up on the show, the french minister speaks out amid fears for the economic plans. we'll be right back with more. ah, these bills are crazy. she
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of forecast with the manufacturing sector falling deeper into contraction territory. the imf managing director kristalina georgieva tells cnbc ex-includes includes civilly it is on the right path. >> europe looks like the supermarket for the united states. a lot what is invented here ends up being commercially viable and on scale over there. when you look at the main obstacle, 27 countries not yet integrated in a single the market. a bitter taste as carlsberg shares lose their fizz for the steepest one-day drop in four years. this is after the soft drink maker rejects a takeover bid of 3 billion pounds. uk retail sales surprise to the upside potentially forcing a
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rethink at the bank of england the day after it left the door open to the potential rate cut in august. it is a busy day on the data front. earlier this morning, we got pmis from france, germany and eurozone and now we're getting the flash numbers for the uk. here's the breakdown. when it comes to the flash composite pmi, it came in at 51.7. this is lower than what analysts had expected going into this release and also lower from what we had seen in the previous month. when it comes to the breakdown between manufacturing and services pmis, this is it. when it comes to the manufacturing, it came in at 51.4. however, this is also lower, just marginally, a tad higher
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actually, compared to what analysts were expecting. nonetheless, still lower -- also higher, i apologize. when it comes to cerservices, t number was 51.2. this was below what analysts were expecting and also lower from what we had seen in the previous month. so many numbers to look at. looking at the overall picture, 51.7. as i said earlier, it is lower than what analysts were expecting. the overall message we have seen throughout the morning when it comes to pmis. this is after we also saw retail sales for the uk this morning. they surged 2.9% in may. well up from the revised fall of 1.8% in april. the figures came as a shock to economists coming in 140 basis
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points higher than expected. some positive news there. it comes as the gfk survey shows the british consumer confidence at the highest level in two and a half years in may. let's take a quick look at the equity session so far in europe. we are seeing the main boards in europe trading lower so far in the session. looking closely at the ftse 100, it is down .30% in the wake of the pmi data, but also in the wake of the retail sales figures. when it comes to switzerland, for instance, it is down .9%. this is afis after we saw the st rates for the second time yesterday and lower moves in the italian and the spanish boards all trading lower at this stage. when it comes to the bond market, we have significant moves with the bond space in europe.
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eurozone yields dropped in the wake of the pmi figures earlier this morning. a lot of analysts are now expecting there will be more rate cuts from the european central bank. the data we got this morning is feeding into that narrative as well. this has been a relatively active space, really, particularly in the wake of the announcement from the french president emmanuel macron of a snap election. speaking of france, the french prime minister marine le pen criticized the proposals put forward. warning they could create further volatility in the market s he was speaking where they presented the economic plans ahead of the month's snap general election. charlotte joins us with more details. charlotte, from what we heard from the economic proposproposa. do analysts s and economists ne
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to be concerned? >> we have party leaders talk to the business community and talk about the measures taken in paris. this is a tradition that happens in every electric. this has special focus with the far right or far left would come in the lead in the snap election. there was a lot of focus on the public finances. we know that has been at heart of the conversation. the far left and far right were criticizing macron and le marie for their focus. the leader of the center right party has called norfor an
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alliance. he has been criticized for content and not being as strong as other candidates. perhaps he needed someone to sit next to him to talk to candidates. his key message is rolling back the pension reform. it is back on the table here again. he said if i come in power, i will reverse this reform. now he is saying we won't be able to because of public finances. there is a lot at play here. it is not something to push through because of the state of the public finances. >> translator: in the first phase, we will introduce emergency measures. i mentioned the measure to lower which will cost 12 billion euro. then later in the ouautumn and e 2025 budget, there will be a
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calendar to take. it is very hard to ask a political party to come up with row projections in a few weeks and prope present the coalition and the aim it will the roll out. >> the far left was also there to speak to the business community. some say it could be a more expensive program talking about the eu limit with deficits. they would be willing to negotiate the fiscal rules and supported by other countries. here again, very interesting to hear that. bruno le marie having to defend that and saying we had to do the spending with the war in ukraine and the pandemic. he is saying we are the responsible ones in the situation. it is the other parties that would be spending more. >> translator: for the past two years, in 2022 and the
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re-election of the president, the spread with the french and german bonds haven't moved. the national rally and from the new front, you will know the rates have been going up. you know if they are elected on july 7th, you will pay more for investments and loans. >> to be fair to bruno le maire, they were epa with the energy cap. you know, there is a change of course here. things like downgrade from s&p and the commission with the procedures and all these fitting that narrative there. that is super interesting to see that. that doesn't seem to be moving. the latest poll yesterday showing the far right in the lead with 34% of voting i inte intention. the far left at 29%. president macron's party at 22%.
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the one thing i would say is that party was at 18% on monday. that 22% now. maybe they are having a little bit of momentum, but the far right is in the lead. >> very interesting. it highlights the fiscal position which is a very key theme for the election. not just for france itself, but international investors. i want to take you to the action in the european boards in terms of what we see in the performance of the european lenders. you see on your screen that it is red across the board for the banking names. when it comes to the biggest downward moves, bank of spain down 2%. unicredit down by almost 3%. when it comes to the french lenders, this has been a very important part for investors
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throughout the last couple of weeks. when it comes to the week-to-date performance, soc gen, it is on track to end the week down. let's see what will happen by the end of today's session. however, bnp seems to register a rebound so far this week. s of course, all eyes on the snap election and what it might men for the french banking system. to discuss in more detail, i have philippe with hermes. >> good morning. >> first, i would like to look at the impact on the french lenders. we had the announcement from the french president. what are you expecting after the second round for some of the french names? >> yes, i think it would be a big volatility in july after the first and second round.
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we need to see what is coming out. minority government, far right, far left. at the moment, it looks unlikely in majority for the party. i think the impact on the french lender at the moment is increasing the funding costs. it has widened against the bund and now trading at 77.70. this is unlikely to tighten. the cost for the french will remain elevated in the short-term. all of those banks own government bonds and most of the banks collect. there is no mark to market. it will not be a capital buffer because of the move wider. >> that is different compared to other european lenders and how
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much national debt they own. i want to go back to the potential impact for the french lenders. ultimately, how bad could it get with the share price moves in the wake of the announcement? >> yes, i think it would be limited. it would be a moment where the market would spook up. at the same time, if we start looking at the fiscal side of things, which is the most important, of course, we listen to the leader with 12 billion of the tax cut, that is on top of the debt of 5.5% at the end of the year. far higher than the 3%. we know in the next three years it won't be coming down. the government would say okay. let's tax the lenders. in the case, maybe some of the listed names and maybe reduce the share buyback. i think it rather unlikely. we see in italy and other
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countries, it is easy to say i'll tax the banks. when you go to the practical, it never works. >> it is interesting how this is happening at this time. no one was expecting president macron to go as far to announce a snap election. what is the likelihood we will see the next government see the windfall of a tax for banks? >> you can never rule it out. i think if it was announced, a tax, which i think in france, especially on the mortgage side, there is a six months re renegotiation for the borrower which is not free for the banks. i think they may announce something. i think it's possible, but not very likely. i think if they expect to raise a lot of money from this tax, i think it is probably not raising
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a lot of money. >> although you are not expecting huge moves to the downside in the wake of the result, do you think there is a likelihood for a spillover to other european banks? >> yes. the banks, year to date, have performed well in the stock market from germany to spain. this could be the moment to say things are going extremely well. even the one we left behind was very small one. maybe let's take some money off the table and reassess things months down the road. there is a possibility of sentiment being in the short-term negatively impacted. >> it is very interesting how the narrative for european banks this year was quite positive. earnings higher. sh share buybacks. things seem to be going well for the first time in a long time. do you think this is a new c
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chapter for the european banks and this story has had a relatively short life span? >> i think maybe i'm in the optimist camp and things will revert for a positive 2024 for the european banks. the think at the end of the day, the politicians from the left and right, they will realize they need the banks. especially in bank centric market in europe and france is really a case in point. they will need the banks. it doesn't help to jeopardize the banks and rock the boat. >> let's see what will happen. particularly as the ecb is expected to cut rates further for the rest of the year. let's see. that was the head of financials at hermes. now kristalina georgieva has told cnbc there is good reason to boost the industry by posing
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str trade restrictions on chinese goods like evs. as part of the exclusive interview, karen asked the imf managing director if tariffs have become a necessary evil to unfold the practices. >> they need to reflect on what is best for the european economies. we know from experience that trade has been very positive for europe. it has allowed the european economy to strengthen its the role globally and increased the standard of living for people in europe. so, holding on what has worked for europe in the past and being strongly committed to an integrated global economy is
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something that has to be protected for the future. we have two messages. number one, there is industrial policy, but it has to be well justified. secondly, we know that competition makes us all do better. we can be championing competitive environment for that purpose. let's, as we respond to trades, trades from politics and threats from pandemics. let's not throw the baby with the bath water. >> earlier, the chinese commerce minister has continued to escalate the trade restrictions and it could trigger a trade war. the minister said it hopes the eu will not let trade tensions
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get out of control. coming up on the show, we'll speak to the liberal democrat treasury spokesperson sarah olney as we look ahead to the general election. that interview is coming up next. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.
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welcome back to "street signs." let's look at uk politics. rishi sunak is under pressure with the party campaign director facing probes from the gambling regulator over bets placed on timing of the general election. sunak and labour leaders faced questions from voters in the town hall style event on thursday, just two weeks before polling day. >> the future. i'll go back to brexit. this is about the future. when it comes to the economy and when it comes to making sure people are working have the options to choose what they want is build on the progress we made and give you and every other young person you're concerned about to get a job if that's the
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right thing for them and keep more of their hard earned money. >> i'll make the argument and we have to stabilize the economy and you have to get investment in and you have to take the high obligations cerseriously. take it as a brilliant opportunity and play our full part in descaling conflict. if we are able to get over the line in two weeks time, we have a platform for that. >> now, this is after the bank of england kept rates on hold in a 7-2 vote and changed from the may meeting. they changed after the minutes from the mpc meeting where the members saw the decision on about or not to cut rates as quote finally balanced. a lot on the line there. i'm pleased to say sarah olney, spokesperson for the investment
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strategy for liberal democrats, is joining me for more. good morning. thanks for being on the show with us. first, i would like to look at the comments you made to keep rates unchanged. you suggest families have had hopes of a rate cut dashed once more. i could ask this to other the politicians at this stage, but why do politicians and you in this case, continue to talk about the bank of england policy as if it was a political matte? ultimately, the bank of england is separate from politics. >> good morning. yes, as it is right. every party is committed to the bank of england. the point about this, the route of the current high interest rates we are seeing and they remain high compared to historic levels in the last decade, the route of that is the conservative government led by liz truss and the mini budget
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from october of 2022 where the government totally lost the con i confidence of the markets. in the uk, we have a high number of people who are mortgage holders. when interest rates are high and remain high, they need to re-mortgage. so many people find where they were previously able to afford a mortgage on a low rate, the high rates we have experienced the last couple of years are becoming unaffordable. we are seeing repossessions increase. i know people renting and rents increased because the landlord mortgages have increased. so many are finding themselves priced out of their homes. the point is it comes back to the mismanagement of the economy. particularly that mini budget. that's why we're seeing these continued high rates. you are absolutely right t. it is a decision for the bank of
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england, but it has its route in the government. >> i would like to look at the proposals from the dems. one is suggesting a tax on a share buyback. the fiscal studies have suggested that this policy doesn't make much economic sense in the sense that it would just discourage the use of equity finance relative to debt. what's your response? >> so, i think what we're seeing int there is we see the share buybacks by companies using the excess cash for this purpose rather than productive investment. we want to incentivize companies to think about investing in the green economy and making other investments that would boost productivity. it is, no doubt, right across the economy, is the failure to make the against in the next decade or so. we disincentivize share buybacks
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rather than a revenue raiser. the raieason we want to do thats to invest in productivity gains. we think there is the potential for revenue to be raised from increased corporation tax results or possibly a tax on dividends if the money is used for that purpose. the point of the share buyback proposal is it could be a primary revenue raiser in the short-term, but the medium-to-long term, we hope to have investment. >> we don't have much time left on the show. i would like to briefly get the comments and the people are concerned about what this means for taxes on banks as well. could you clarify where you would be starting these tax rises? >> we are looking at reversing the cuts to the bank surcharge and the conservative government have made.
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we think it could raise 4 billion a year. we have a crisis in our nhs in the uk at the moment. we need to see investment of 8.8.4 billion a year. the working families are facing the longest since the second world war. the point about investing in the nhs, it drives productivity. we have people stuck on waiting lists because they are waiting for medical treatment. we really want to see that investment in the nhs. >> sarah, we have to leave the conversation there. that was sarah olney, the spo moat sperson for the liberal decrs. we will have more next week. i'm silvia amaro. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.
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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. i'm frank holland and here is your "five@5." off their highs. stocks are struggling to find footing as the nasdaq snaps the win streak of the year. the key event today that could dictate the trading ahead. the part of the intraswing for trading is nvidia wiping out of play market value ahead of the important session for what is now the u.s.'s third most valuable stock. and out for days. a massive hack
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