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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  June 21, 2024 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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good afternoon, everybody. welcome to a special edition of "power lunch." i'm tyler mathisen at uncharted conference in the hamptons. >> they need to put a pool picture behind me at least or something. i'm kelly evans holding down the fort back at headquarters here, and over -- tyler, over to you. >> over the next hour we'll be
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talking to some of the market professionals, the investors, the people behind startups, the people who are funding startups who are gathered here at uncharted. we'll talk stock market, vc funding, and the future of ai. kel. >> all on the billion set itself. we're looking forward to it, tyler. thank you. a quick check of the markets to show you the major averages. dow slipping two points and s&p down 11 and nasdaq down 42. the nasdaq has been higher in seven of the past eight weeks, but it's close right now. there you can see on the week we're down just fractionally, and we'll check out shares of nvidia, kind of the fulcrum point of the market. the stock yesterday hit an all-day intraday high of 40, nearly 141 but as current levels it's just short of a 10% correction in little more than 24 hours. >> well, it has been a good run for a lot of the big-name tech stocks. i don't need to tell you that, and the tech-related etfs, the qqqs if you're lucky enough to own them, but as you mentioned
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with nvidia, we're seeing some signs that that could be turning just a bit. so what should investors do with their big winners? joining us now is doug bonaparte, the financial adviser and president of bona fide wealth, also a member of cnbc's advisory council. doug, welcome. why don't we start there. let's say you're lucky enough to have had some of these winners, whether it's qqqs or bitcoin or the video shares in nvidia, and now they have become too big a portion of your portfolio. how do you sensibly are dues that? >> yeah. with talk about concentration risk, right, when one particular issue or position starts to become too heavy in your portfolio. what i like to do with my clients is figure out a threshold like 10% or 20% of your overall investable net worth that you're comfortable taking a position in. for me it's around 20%. i don't like seeing 20% of that one thing. >> you could have 20% in a single stock? >> well, you have to keep in
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mind that if it's such a winner, you have tax consequences associated with really paring that down so you want to be conscientious about what the tax ramifications are. if it's 40%, 50% of your portfolio and then you'll pear that down 30%. that's pretty significant so it's personal. it's individual, 20% for some, 10% for others, but you want to keep >> how do you keep that threshold in mind, and is the way to reduce that pox to do sort of the opposite dollar cost averaging, to sell a certain amount at a regular interval so that you're not selling at what turns out to be an intermediate trough? >> absolutely. can you reverse that age-old strategy of dollar cost averaging and start to exit on a periodic basis, whether that is over a shorter term period like three months or the course of a year. you want to keep your time horizon in mind. >> let's talk about a little cluster of your clientele, and that's the people we call millenials. i'm a boomier.
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i hate the millenials. no, i don't hate the millenials. what's different about them from previous generations or generations falling behind them? >> i think they have a very interesting experience, if you're talking older millenials embarking in the world during the great recession. they had kids and got hit with a pandemic so there's a lot of cautious i feel with this generation. they are really looking around the corner and over their shoulder a little bit. that might make them a little more conservative. they do recognize if they have a lot of time on their hands, 20, 30-year investments, they need to be invested in equities. we see larger cash reverves and appreciation -- >> they are more conservative, and that's how the of experience. >> that's out of their learned experience and having gone through some pretty interesting things over the last 10, 15 years, and i see it a lot really with cash. they really love having larger emergency funds than other cohorts because they have been hit with those very disruptive events throughout very pivotal times in their lives. >> is this a bad thing? do you advise them -- how do you
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advise them? >> absolutely. too much cash can be a bad thing, particularly when you're young. you're missing out on the opportunity to invest. you're scooping up 5% on your risk-free money. 2.5% halfway through the year. s&p 1-5-hundred is up 14, you missed the boat there so if you're overallocated you didn't do yourself any favors. when it comes to protecting yourself, three to six months living expenses in cash, that's rule of thumb. i like to see six to nine months, maybe up to a year for your more protective people but no more than that. >> too much cash is a bad thing, i heard you just say, too much cash would ever be a bad thing. are the millenials more purpose-driven in their investing? >> they can be, right? they are looking to invest in companies that have mixes that maybe benefit more than the bottom line and you're seeing that. classic companies like washy parker and other companies with a big component given back to them and that's more common with the founders these case.
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>> what's your view of the overall position, valuation of equities right now, and what are the questions you're being asked by your clients, whether they are millenials or not? >> absolutely. people look at all-time highs in the market and they wonder is there going to be a pullback? is now a really good time to be investing in something that's perceived to be overvalued, but the reality you is always need to be buying. you always need to be averaging in and getting your capital to work, especially with a lot of capital on its side. money is not going to compound itself. you have to average that money dollar cost. those contributing to their 401(k)s are already doing that, being conscious how much cash you have on hand. i don't think too much cash is necessarily a bad thing. you want to find the right amount, but having way more than you need, you're mission out on opportunity. >> i'm interested in your views on the timeless argument or discussion about indexing versus active management. where do you come down? >> my fill boss if i is i'm passive management. i want to be able to compound. i'm looking for discipline, and
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i'm looking for people toll stay consistent with their investing. investing is hard enough as it is whether it's active or paves because we're asking people to do things we're not good at which is doing very boring stuff for very long periods of time. passive really lends itself to that and keeps costs low. >> we're at a conference of startup people. what do you tell some client who says i've got thisstartup idea? how do you advise them? >> i'm all for prushs and sometimes you really just got to go all in on yourself. the whole tag line of our firm is invest in you. i personally believe there's no better asset than you can invest in to get the greatest return than yourself and if you've got that idea and you're able to execute and it's planned out. >> go for it. >> go for it. >> doug, we've got to the live it there. doug, thanks for your time today. >> thank you. >> i see so seen by that interview. he nailed it.
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my next guest say stocks have risen in june for the right reasons. softer than expected inflation, and he's seeing more positive signs ahead, and he's sticking with the big names in ai. tom lee is year, funds central artery co-founder and head and cnbc contributor. great to see you. i want to stay here because doug made a good point about millenials and how they are conservative in their positions. whether you've experienced this phenomenon firsthand or not, what do you say to those who need to be coaxed at a market that's ever at record highs after a run in stocks like nvidia, like we're rarely before seen? i mean, is the water still safe? >> you know, i know investors generally aren't comfortable buying things at a high, but if we're mid-cycle which we probably are, they be we're going to be making a lot of new highs over the next five years anyway, and i think there's a lot of statistical support that shows buying at new highs has a
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better win ratio than attempting to buy at lows. >> and it's also true for all of our lifetime the stock market has gone up. yes, there are pullbacks and financial crises and pandemics, but is there any reason to believe that the fundamental nature of the beast has changed for the sfwhost i've read the research that says we'll permanently lower stock returns. 4% a year is the most we should expect. we've pulled forward gains. do you believe there's credence in any of that? >> i've heard that exact statement of the new era of low returns since 2008 and stocks have compounded at the historical average since then. as long as there's scentics out there there's a lot of upside. >> is there something like nvidia that could spool the party, becomes too much of a good thing and draws people into the market and, tends valuations and then we have to clean up the jess. >> there's a lot of people trying to top tick nvidia says they don't want to own it but it's a 30 pe stock that sells
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something that no one else produces in the world. >> the one thing it's not is expensive. >> yeah. i would feel very differently if we were discounting nvidia being larger than global gdp and at 100 pe and everyone is saying no way it can be stopped, but because everyone wants to sell nvidia and try to call a top, i actually still think there's a lot of upside. >> when i hear anecdotes about how all the local kids own nvidia. what should i think when i hear that kind of information? >> well, you know, it's -- it makes sense. nvidia is the largest stock so everyone should own it. it's almost like if someone said i'm selling because everyone owns s&p. everyone should own s&p. it's really a bearish sign when someone says the s&p won't ever go down and i only hear people saying the s&p is topping right now. >> i do remember hearing people saying stocks never went, and we've had a correction and a couple maybe since then. what kind of paradigm are we in? we hear people say like mark
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zandi do the economy needs to cut because rates are higher than they need to be. do you have a view on fed rates because you support stocks moving higher? >> i think the big lesson for the last two years is the s&p has endured some pretty severe rate hikes so we know companies are managing this cycle well. if the fed turns neutral or dovish, that's even more positive for stocks, so i think the slenvironment for equities good because it's survived a stress test but only bad if the fed raises rates. >> what makes you think we're not at mid-level? >> debt levels are not associated with business cycle peaks. it's actually more early cycle of if you look at isms, they just turned positive. that's generally an early cycle sign. i think the only thing that's late sickle in people's minds is
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we made an all-time high but s&ps will make all-time highs mid-cycle and will make it all the way late cycle. >> did ai bail us out in the sort of thing bass to this dispersion that we've seen, the biggest names have a lot of market growth and everything else is more lackluster and you think, okay, if you rewind the clock 18 months ago, if we hadn't had the arrival of chat gpt and were still working through post-pandemic gluts, you know what's been going on with the manufacturing sector, a recession for two and a half years. did we get bailed out by ai? is that what is extending the cycle? >> i think people are doing fake math. 45% of the s&p has 10% of the earnings growth which is the highest ratio in three years. one in six stocks is up more than 20% this year. one in four stocks is up more than 15%. i think people are distorting the fact that there's negative earnings coming from energy, basic materials and health care. that's how you get the negative 7% growth outside the top ten but health care is flipping in
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q2 positive. energy flipping positive in q2 and materials, so the number of companies with double-digit earnings growth is going to really soar actually. >> final question to sort of ask the what would make you bearish question? does the trend have to break significantly for you to say okay, fine, maybe if something like a mid-cycle correction is here, or does the economic data have to change or some exogenous shock? >> well, i think that three signs avs peak are when incremental and capital is zero, so when we're at a peak cap "x" cycle, i don't think we're anywhere close. i think when we're extended on leverage, whether it's debt service ratio or margin debt which is still 20% below where it was in 2021 and when sentiment turns, when people say this market sun stoppable and won't ever go down then we'll have a big drawdown. >> but we're not yet. >> yeah. >> tom, great to see you. appreciate it. tom lee. tyler. >> how many companies carry -- oaks i'm sorry. talking here to my next guest. coming up, the risks and rewards
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of ai and its rise came in fast and furious leading to some big gains and some small speed bumps, too. we'll dig all into it when "power lunch" returns. i can't wait to start with our next guest. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ things will go wrong for your customers. but your business can make it right, with watsonx assistant.
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welcome back to the uncharted summit. the race to dominate the ai space has been quick, but it has also been messy, and it promises to get maybe even messier whether it's massive companies like microsoft and alphabet or emerging startups. firms are fighting tooth-and-nail for the massive investments that are pouring into the ai industry. however, amid that urgency that we have seen google, open ai and others raise mistakes raising moral concerns about the future of ai. joining us now to discuss further is xie, an award-winning
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ai expert and ceo of ai consulting firm malo santo. thanks for joining us. >> pleasure to be here. >> xiaoxie. >> xia. >> and you get the award for coolest sneakers. we'll pan down. you said your goal is to make sure that ai helps more than it hurts. >> mm-hmm. >> do you think that the leadership of the companies that are leading the way in artificial intelligence are doing enough to follow through on that? >> i think that it's a very tricky thing to balance, right. when you look at leaders of companies like goingle and microsoft and amazon you have to remember that they are driven just as much by their passion for this technology to drive innovation as they are by fiduciary duty which requires them to prioritize making money. what i've seen in the last ten years that i've been in artificial intelligence is sometimes there's a trade-off between slowing down the pace of
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something that you're building inside of an ai system or hurrying it to market and being able to make money faster. so there's an inherent tension between doing the right thing. >> are they hitting the sweet spot in that or not? >> i think that there's a recent example that makes me concerned. >> okay. >> so recently google used a large language model inside of its ai overview t.release that had feature which used generative ai to answer search results. google number one is the company where the research paper came out of that created the transformer architecture which is basically why we have large language models. now large language models are not intelligent systems. they are basically big math calculations that take your prompt, your text, convert it to math and then guess which words should come next and because that's how they operate they basically will always at risk of doing something called hallucinating which is making up facts that aren't true. google as the company who produced the researchers who
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created this technology knew that their ai overview feature was probably going to a lose nate and still turned it on anyway so i saw search results for things like how many rocks should a person eat in a day and authoritatively responded. >> well, according to a research study at uc berkeley humans should eat three or four rocks a day. the answer is somewhat funny but it's terrifying what happens -- >> what happens if it's a serious question or important question and you get that kind of la lose nation. >> or you so moderna turning on 750 train chat customer gpts including things like determining dosages in clinical trials knowing that the large language models have the ability to a lieutenant nate and you can't eliminate that. >> are there companies or leaders doing better than any? >> ssi, the state intelligence institute and antrhopic is doing a much better job because their intention is to build this kind
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of technology in a way that aligns with society, not necessarily aligns with shareholders. >> let's talk about the u.s. versus europe. there's the digital act that has just gone into effect or just been passed in europe. is europe ahead of the u.s. in what you think needs to be done to create a more responsible sort of rule -- set of rules of the road for ai? is europe ahead of the u.s.? >> so two things. one, yes, europe is absolutely ahead of the u.s. when it comes to that, and i think the word responsible comes with a little bit of a moral charge to it. i think the way i like to think about is these are the boundaries we need to put around the ai systems to align with our american values and the rights guaranteed to us in our constitution, right? and so essentially europe has just passed the eu's ai act which takes a very intelligent approach to how they consider ai dangerous so, for example, if netflix recommends a movie that i don't want to watch, that's not really going to cause me a lot of harm.
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>> doesn't matter. >> however, if an ai system recommends that i should get a medicine that's actually going to harm me or recommends to a judge that my sentence should be longer than i should because of my race or my skin color or recommends through a cps child protective services that a child should be separated who is not in danger, that poses big risk and i say those things because all of those things are really use cases that are turned on right now. >> they are really happening right now? >> absolutely. >> how do you with your company, how do you get buy-in from the big dogs in this world to do what they think you should do as a matter of making a good moral choice? >> i think a huge part of it is that it's all about scaleability. businesses want to grow and have growth. with ai systems it's not the same scaling as it would be just a regular mobile app or website because it takes so much data to train it that when something goes wrong with your ai, you have to get enough data for it to unlearn that pattern and
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enough data for it to learn the new pattern that you want so you're essentially rebuilding it, so by slowing down enough at the start to get the speed up and be able to scale their ai across different geographic regions. a lot of times when i talk to company, i talk to them where they care about which is their pockets. if your ai works well in the united states it doesn't guarantee that it's going to work well in a european market, where the values are different or that you'll be able to deeply penetrate india or that you'll be even able to touch the continent of africa so being able to think about how well your system performs across different social contexts, how trans parent it is, meaning that you understand why it makes the decision that it makes as well as how secure it is is really going to be the key enabler for your business being able to take their algorithms outside the u.s. >> are you hopeful about ai or more frightened than hopeful about a sydney. >> i'm excited because i truly believe in the power of the collective, and whether or not
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artificial intelligence turns into a superhero or a super villain should not be left up to the ai leaders we currently have alone. it's not just up to elon musk or up to different folks over at antrhopics, it's up to us collectively. so when ai turns into a boogie man that destroys our technology. >> do you think it could? >> it could if it continues to go unchecked. we've seen ai sis thaems have b extreme lip harmful, like the child protective services. it was extremely biased and kicked out of the state of illinois but still used in the u.s. michigan created an algorithm called midas that was supposed to detect fraud in unemployment systems. it was wrong. 20,000 people suffered as a result. we have a government agency that just had to issue a warning to all of the health insurance companies and say stop using ai to decide medicare claims or eligibility because they kicked
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2 million children off of it inappropriately. >> there's a lot of room for improvement, a lot of opportunity. xia, thank you very much. >> appreciation for you having me today. >> like the shoes. we'll be back with more upstarts from the half. tons. back in a moment.
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welcome back to "power lunch." as the dow fluctuates between gains an losses, it's up 50 this afternoon while the s&p is down 5 and the nasdaq is down about 20. let's get a check on the bond market now with rick santelli out in chicago as we head into the weekend. rick? >> reporter: yes, indeed. you know, if you look at a one-week chart of 2s and 10s on top of each other, it's been mostly a sideways week, but what was interesting this morning was is that we're nearly unchanged on the week until the service s&p global pmis hit. at 55.1 they were the best since april of '22, and that put the extra three basis points we're up on the week right there on the 10s, and for next week, we have auctions.
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2s, 5s and 7s. cumulatively, $183 billion. issuance. we learned a lot of important information this week. let's go to the white board. issuance for 2023 versus 2024, year to date, 89.9 trillion on this pace in '23. we're already over $13 trillion for 2024. a record year in the offing again. is that a good thing? i'm not sure it is, but here's what we learned on tuesday, the 18th, that the budget deficits for 2023 were $1.7 trillion. you know, trillion, 12 zeros. well, now it's approaching 2 trillion for 2024. i know it's an election year, and we're all going to hear a lot of malarkey about the numbers and what they don't mean, but i'll tell you what they do mean. they mean your kids and your grandkids are going to have to deal with the red a lot more than we are, and these are huge, huge numbers. so, when we look at markets and we try to synthesize all the
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important information of the day, well, these are the types of things you can't really say every day because they don't change that much, but believe me. this is probably the most important dynamic if you're trading interest rates because they are not going to matter until they do. think france, think all the empires of the past, but this will make a difference, and my guess is it's going to make a difference this year. kelly, back to you. >> thank you, rick. over to contessa brewer now for the cnbc news update. contessa? >> well, kelly, a new treasury department rule is taking aim at chinese tech development. the proposal released today would restrict and monitor u.s. investments in china for artificial intelligence, computers chips and quantum computing. it specifically targets american investors funding chinese ai systems that could be used for military applications. amtrak disruptions stretched into a second day on the east coast affecting service from boston to philadelphia. trains running on the way after
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suspending service for two hours this morning because of overhead wire service. las vegas police removed a mysterious monolith that appeared without explanation in a remote mountain range north of the city over the weekend. we just have the twitter shot of it apparently. police were concerned that the monolith would encourage people to venture off marked trails and pose a danger to delicate environmental areas. look at this. this is crazy. the latest discovery in a series of mysterious columns that have popped up around the globe since at least 2020. >> i'm fascinated. >> global media coverage, put a silver monolith out there. >> how do you do that, get a bunch of drones, lift, it who is out there? it's not like they have ancient egyptians. >> i should be -- i should be more concerned than i am and
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maybe i should start putting them around new jersey. people wait four-game their train at least have something to look at. >> it's a new style of lawn ornament. >> thanks, contessa. coming up, a massive cyber attack has crippled thousands of car dealerships across the country with no end in sight. we'll get you the key details when "power lunch" returns. okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot
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welcome back to "power lunch." a cyber attack shutting down auto dealerships across the country. in some cases making them unable to process transactions and relying on old-fashioned pen and april. eamon javers has more on this hack. >> reporter: that's right. today is the third full day of fallout at ought ore dealerships after software provider cdk which makes the software that powers so many companies across the country. they say it was a two-tiered attack hitting had the company on tuesday and wednesday. the company told the reuters news service it's working to reinstate its services and getting dealers' business back to normal soon.
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the company says it works with more han 15,000 retail locations across north america. not clear right now exactly how many of those have been affected, but celebrity motorcar company owner tom maloney described what dealers are facing here. >> it's a disaster. i have to tell you customers are coming in and consumers are coming in. we can't book the deals, finance the deals, get them to the banks. >> reporter: in a statement the national automobile dealers association says deal remembers very committed to protecting their customer information and are actively seeking information from cdk to determine the nature and scope of the cyber incident so they can respond appropriately. so far no word at all today from the company on who may have been responsible for this attack, whether any ransom has been demanded or whether dealers might see their services restored, kelly. back over to you. >> wow. how would you compare the severity of this one over the years whether it involves health care systems, municipal systems
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and so on. >> because there's no human life at stake you would say it's less severe than some of the health care incidents we've seen. this is frustrating for the dealers because they are relying on an outside vendor to work their software. dealers can't negotiate directly with the ransomware attackers to pay a ransom, right. they have to wait for cdk to do it so they are at the mercy of the outside service providers and the hackers who, are you know, god knows where somewhere around the world, so it's got to be enormously from us straight on the dealership floors. >> absolutely. >> eamon, we appreciate it. eamon javers following that for us today. tyler. >> all righty. still ahead, there you go. still ahead, we're following the money. we've got a legend in the world of capital. where is the money going today? where is it going, we'll talk to
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alan patrikof when we return. (grandpa vo) i'm the richest guy in the world. hi baby! (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions. (woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.
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lunch." in the half tojs. this year marked the return of the ipo after years of dud hitting the market, incart, esthera labs, all hit the ground running and here with me now to discuss the ipo market, the startup space is a legend in the world of venture capital, alan patricof, welcome. good to have you with us. >> most moan for graycroft. apple computer was in your portfolio, but now with primetime partners, you are focused on longevity-related startups. explain what that means. obviously we get the idea of a big market out there. >> it's actually the most exciting area i've been involved in in my 50-plus years of
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venture capital. everybody wants to live longer. everybody is either taking care of a direct relative, a husband, a wife, a grandparent, or they are know someone else they are taking care of. everyone realizes that the fastest growing part of the population is over 60, and they have more money to spend. 50% of the kids that are born today are going to live to over 100, so, i mean, you read the paper yesterday. a woman got an mba at stanford at 105. the oldest man alive last week was 110 who walked three miles a day before he died. i walk every day. i did a marathon two years ago, and i'm going to be 90 in october. >> 90 in october and still firing away. as i look at the list of companies in your portfolio that you are backing one way or another, it's -- it's 15 or 20 of them. give us some idea of what they do.
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>> well, every one of them is helping someone in some way to live longer, whether they are doing remote telemedicine, whether -- in some way related to their care giving economy. i'll give you one idea, one company we have called safe pride which is attracted by the health plan to deliver people who will have to go to a medical appointment of degree or another, a hospital or a doctor office, and you think about it, and you say, well, why can't uber do it or lyft? but this requires precision. i think they have a 99% reliability. >> just amazing. >> a different business. >> let's talk a little bit about the overall state of venture capital of funding for businesses. how would you characterize it? how has -- how have higher interest rates affected it? >> well, you're here today, at
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uncharted that has 800 people. that's a good indication. the startup business has never been better than it is today, but the truth is it's always been good. there is an entrepreneurial urge in this country to start businesses. people have great ideas, new technology and ai is only one component of it that's going to feed every industry and permeate every area, including the companies we've invested in, and every one of them is finding a way to use -- starting to find ways to use faster development that will reduce cost and increase productivity. >> you give it a very healthy grade. >> no question. i've been through every technology revolution from the pc, the cell phone, the internet. nothing -- nothing comes close to ai. >> where we are right now. >> it's going to permeate
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everything. >> alan, are you an inspiration. thank you so much. >> thank you for having me. >> a little bit out of time, but we appreciate you being here. alan patricof. >> great to hear from one of the legends. tyler and alan, thank you. still ahead, we'll ask our three-stock lunch trader what to do with 2024's biggest gainer and here is ken melman, kkr partner celebrating pride month this year. >> at kkr we invest in companies which is really investing in people. engaged andie verse workforces perform better. i've seen this at work in so many parts of my life. the story of pride is also the story of america. we're proud of who we are, who we love and how together we can expand life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
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welcome back. time for today's three-stock lunch. all hour we've been discussing what to do with some of the big winners in your portfolio. nice question to ask. here with our trades is david bonson, chief investment officer
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at the bonson group. what would you do with nvidia up 160% this year. >> we would sell it because it's overvalued. nothing do with the fact that we don't think it's a huge company that will be a major player in ai for years to come, but when you're trading at 60 times forward earnings, that's already priced in and the cisco of 1999 narrative is very much what we believe in. >> not to split pairs here, i don't know if we can show the forward multiple, i thought it was more like 40 though i haven't checked in so maybe it is 60 now. >> well, i think it depends on what projection you're looking at. it's about -- it was about 56 times at its peak the other day. the stock has come down a little. it was well over 70 times trailing but a forward multiple on a company like nvidia is impossible to perfectly calculate because it assumes certain projections that are not quite as well known with this massive order flow growth that they are dealing with with chips.
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>> that said, i remember one of our guests pointing out that last year it turns out nvidia was trading at six times forward earnings because the earnings estimates were understating its true earnings power. >> that's right. if anyone believes they will grow earnings 2,000 percent again, then they should not sell the stock. >> all right. let's move along tolilly. maybe a controversial, i don't know, up 51% this year amid the glp craze. what would you do with this one? >> we would sell this, as well. again, this is a pharma company that unlike a big tech company is used to being a good dividend payer, dividend grower, which is what we care about. in lilly's case unlike merck and the other great pharma companies, they have not chosen to continue growing the dividend as their cash flow has grown. that reflects to me management's low confidence in the sustainability of what they're doing. they've had a huge peak in earnings out of the weight loss drugs' success, now they face competition. there will be more products coming on line that compete with
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lilly. and i think that ultimately the fact they haven't grown their dividend, they're yielding half a percent as a big pharma company makes no sense to me. >> that's really interesting and maybe the onus is on them. love to hear maybe the ceo talk about that and whether that could change. all right. chipotle. those shares up 40% this year. the stock will split 50-1 next week. it's been a high flyer for i feel as long as i've been on the planet. what's your trade? >> it has been high flyer. there have times when you and i have been on the planet where chipotle had a drawdown and rebounded from that. so it is a name that is hard to bet against in terms of the success it's had. the reason we're a sell with chipotle is a 0% dividend yield. where is the free cash flow going? at this point, if they're not in a position -- you look at a mcdonald's that is up 67,000% since it went public. they've been one of the great dividend growers of all time. chipotle is far past the phase
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where they should be there. to us it's a sell. we think that it just eventually falls to the law of fads. it won't -- it cannot be as popular with that kind of smart casual mexican food through time. now of course i could have said that five years ago. i would have been very wrong. but again, i'm taking my ps and qs from management here. why are they not paying the dividend they're generating the free cash no to do it? >> what would be an interesting chapter. sell them, book the gains. thank you so much for joining us. ahead we'll head to the hamptons. tyler is with katie couric. you better tell her i love her. i follow her on instagram all the time. her -- i could go on. we'll have more after the break. investment professionals know the importance of keeping their clients on track. sometimes they need help cutting through the noise, to ensure fresh investment ideas keep flowing, and to analyze the market from every angle.
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joining us now katie couric of "katie couric media." >> hi, tyler. >> so good to see you. >> nice to see you. >> katie and i go back a long time. >> we don't have to say how long. >> we don't have to say how long. but junior high, high school, college. >> yeah. >> katie's brother, johnny, is one of my best and dearest friends. >> and my mom worked with your mom. they did flowers for weddings. >> they did flowers for weddings. >> big events. they called themselves the flower ladies. >> the flower ladies. you mention them in your book. >> yes, exactly. >> you mentioned your dad, john sr. he was a wonderful, wonderful man. >> thank you. >> let's talk about "katie couric media." you're now a founder of a company. what's that like? >> it's been really exciting. you know, i was watching how the media landscape was transforming and how so many people were now getting their news and information on their phones, through digital platforms, and i decided after having a wonderful career in broadcast television, and i loved every minute of it,
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that i wanted to go -- i wanted to be where the public was going. i started this company with my husband who has had a career in finance, and we now are sort of a thoroughly modern media company with newsletters. we have four now. we have obviously a podcast. i'm giving birth, not literally, to other podcasts. and then of course i use social media to do a lot of news-making interviews. i started my career at a time when you could establish yourself and build a household name. so i do interviews with prominent people who i think trust my methods and my credibility. so it's been really fun and interesting. >> so it's all across the waterfront, it's social media it's podcasts. are you doing long form work, as well? >> i'm doing some documentaries. i have a documentary i executive
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produced called "for love and life: no ordinary campaign" on amazon now. i have one on max about the oklahoma city bombing called "an american bombing." i'm developing three others. i have a scripted show that's being developed for netflix based on a book i loved. and so i'm really trying to do storytelling in a whole sort of panoply of, you know, avenues. >> so what's it like to go from being a television personality to being the ceo of a company? how's it -- >> well, my husband is the ceo. i'm sort of the chief creative officer. he has such a strong financial background, and he knows how to write investor letters. i'm learning. and he says i'm -- i have a much better business sense than i give myself credit for. you know, it's really great. we have almost 40 employees. you know, we're job creators, didn't george w. bush say that?
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i'm able to mentor a lot of people, give them opportunities. and really help them navigate the changing media landscape. and you have to be so, you know, adjustable and adaptable because as you know, tyler, it's just changing so dramatically. >> it really is. the business that you and i as -- grew up in -- >> us fossils? it's okay. yeah. >> you and i grew up in is different. it really is no more in a lot of ways. >> it is, and you have to be -- you've got to meet people where they are. >> that's the lesson of business. we got to meet the customer where they are. >> definitely. you have to adjust. and you have to just really be flexible in how you see the world. and you have to be keenly aware of changing trends and consumer behavior, right? >> yeah. >> you have to then, you know, step up and maybe forget some of the ways you used to do things
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if you want to stay -- learn new things. it's so fun, tyler. for somebody like you and me who are insatiably curious and lifelong learners, i still get to interview people and talk to people, but i get to learn new technology. >> thanks for doing. this i just talked to you five minutes ago. gracious of you to come by. say hi to johnny for me. thanks for watching "power lunch." >> huge thanks to katie. i'm coming in the car and coming. "closing bell" starts right now. hi, guys. thank you so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott walker live at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with nvidia's quick correction. whether it's time to sell the hottest in the marketor or buy . we'll look at the scorecard. 60 minutes to go, fairly muted action. that could certainly change over this last hour. it is triple witching friday, a period when several

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