Skip to main content

tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  June 24, 2024 9:00am-11:00am EDT

9:00 am
the markets this morning. s&p futures have turned negative, only by about two points. and the nasdaq continues to see a little bit of pressure on the downside. right now, off by about 45 points. treasurys right now, 4.26% for the ten-year and that does it for us today. join us back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla. jim cramer is back at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. final week of q2 as the s&p's coming off three weeks of gains, up nearly 4% for the month. busy week. pce, the presidential debates, micron earnings, nike, carnival, fedex, and more. our road map begins with the final trading week of the first half. gdp, pce coming, a lot of fed speak on deck. while high-flying nvidia does look on track for a three-day
9:01 am
slump. all things apple, the first company now charged with violating the eu's dma rules and discussing an a.i. partnership with meta. and federal prosecutors want boeing to face some criminal charges from the doj. let's begin with the market kicking off this week of trading. you are a sight for sore eyes. did you have fun? >> it was the greatest. i was with my two daughters, and you can't beat it. it was all outdoors, not a lot of paying attention to the market, although i did my deep dive yesterday, and i will say from the get-go, it is almost impossible -- there. yeah. that's the grand tetons. the national park system is unbelievable. these two are back-to-back. it's yosemite and it's teton, and it's 100% -- i mean, by the way, old faithful is pretty amazing. >> did you -- >> oh, yeah. it's complete -- i was a complete hack tourist, which i recommend everyone in this country to be, because you don't know how great our country is.
9:02 am
it's nice to see something really work. national parks. john d. rockefeller jr., thank you for making that happen. >> your stuff on social during the week was great. >> thank you. >> how much were you able to watch, and what do you make of the equal weight outpacing the benchmark last week? >> look, there was more written about the so-called outside move in nvidia than i have read about any chart in a long time. here's my problem. and i did a piece last -- this weekend for the investing club. it's difficult to value nvidia. it might turn out to be that the pe is much lower than people realize. people don't know what nvidia does. we all know what apple does. we all know what microsoft does. when it go to the rarefied air, it was like, who are these guys? like "butch cassidy and the sundance kid." the market is turned on the idea that there could be somebody
9:03 am
that could pass apple and microsoft. it was almost like they were heat-seeking moments the moment it got past microsoft. now everyone is possessed with the idea it's the top, and given the fact that there are only a couple stocks that continue to provide all the upside, i think people say, that's the one we got to take out and shoot, and i say, let it come down. i like nvidia. i'm -- same thing. own it, don't trade it. nothing's changed for me since about $30. but i do recognize that the long knives are out because people just don't think it can possibly be worth more than microsoft. >> 12% off the highs. >> right. >> the record highs. would you be surprised to see that get much larger? >> i think that we have micron later this week. i think micron is going to show an incredible number and make it so people say, wait a second, how can they have an incredible number without nvidia moving higher? look, i think micron is going to have a very big number, and they have this high-bandwidth memory that really does matter. if you report on the 26th and you don't get hit, which is just
9:04 am
incredible after the stock's moving up this morning, then i think people say, wait a second. we got to go back. i wouldn't be surprised if nvidia, despite the fact that people feel it's like the big teton with the biggest head and shoulder patterni i've ever see. if david were here, i would say, just go there, you'll see what it looks like. i'm looking at grand teton and saying, hm, nvidia. oh, boy. that will be a long slide down. that's dangerous stock. dangerous mountain. 5.5, nvidia. i mean,enough. enough. i mean, okay. okay. it's going down a little. it had the greatest run in the history of the stock market. >> two-month gain of 80% plus. interestingly today, the goldman desk writes about how it has provided an opportunity to look at the rest of mag seven, google, meta, amazon, which have
9:05 am
kind of lay low ahead of q2 earnings. >> every day, you're going to get some something good. amazon -- well, do you have alexa? >> sure. >> my kids had a big fight with her last night. i wanted the chemical brothers -- which i had no idea -- >> they're great. >> i thought it was dow and dupont. they put on chemical something else, and my daughter said, listen, siri -- first, she called her siri because that's what you do. siri, shut it off. she doesn't respond to that. a alexa, change it -- i mean, alexa is an idiot. they want to charge for alexa. they want to charge for an idiot. but maybe they have an advanced alexa, and that advanced alexa might do the things that we really want. we might say, listen, alexa, i want whole foods to deliver, and i think that's right. or is wind river on prime video?
9:06 am
and i think that alexa might be worth something. that's a souped-up alexa, so maybe they've got -- i don't think amazon ever offers something that's a waste. i'm looking forward to a new alexa that really understands me but not to the point whereit sends me stuff that -- a day ahead. >> you expect nike to give us some good clues on consumer? >> i think that nike could actually -- this is not the quarter that nike should have a breakout. i don't think this nike quarter is any good. i think they can make a forecast because i don't think that -- when i look at all the -- look, when you look at under armour, which does seem to be in tatters, you look at, obviously, hoka is really doing well, and on is doing well, but i think the market could have more room. it's just not an expensive -- nike is not expensive. again, i don't think the quarter is going to be great. but i think they can say, you know what, we're seeing some green shoots. there's a lot of green shoots in china, just that no one -- everyone's afraid. and i think they're afraid because they saw, once again, alibaba go up big and then
9:07 am
reverse and reverse horribly. that's the cheapest stock in the world, according to a lot of people i talk to. dave tepper will tell you -- the great dave tepper -- i don't mean that facetiously at all. >> i'm well aware. >> i knew him at goldman. he is legitimately great. he thinks that alibaba is the cheapest stock on earth but there is a level of risk that we're not used to, and i think that's the same problem with all of china. if we have a thursday, if trump does really well on thursday night, then i think that you're going to say, no, whatever nike's going to make in china, i'm going to take that back. in the same way the chinese are punishing eu by saying, look, you want to put a big tariff on our evs, we'll put a big tariff on mercedes and beamer, and those are really important companies in germany. >> the trade tussle between the eu and china is intense. they've agreed to some talks. they're floating some perks for german car makers to avoid what they hope are going to be -- hope to avoid some of these tariffs. >> they have to.
9:08 am
obviously, they want to make some money, the eu, off apple, which is what we're all sick of. today's was -- was really, really hard to understand. they want to -- this is the eu commission. they want to prevent -- they think apple is preventing app developers from freely steering consumers to alternative channels for offers and content. well, who wants alternative channels? the big issue has always been, do i use my own site or go on the apple store and give them a third? well, you know, zero percent of -- you get 100% of zero. no one comes to your site. i'd rather give them 30%, and that's always been the problem, which is that you can't incentivize companies to not do well. you can't. that's why companies always settle for the app store, and having done -- i made this -- this is the discussion i had at the street.com.
9:09 am
i said, no one's coming to our website, but let's go on the app store, and the business just zoomed. one of the reasons why people say, why do you like apple so much? i say, i've seen the power, and the power is a positive one. i don't know if that became darth vader. >> what would chatgpt say? openai would be, like, we're getting paid just to be there. >> we were playing with chatgpt and claude just to see the imperfections this weekend when we had wi-fi. we've decided that no matter what they do, they have to do 700 words. and 300 of them are just pure pablum. put it in, trying to stretch it out. i found that of less value than i would have liked. we were playing with everything. >> interesting. >> my kids are so good at this stuff. >> this story's interesting too. people talking this morning about what it may mean for google, microsoft. this is not a classic partnership between these two companies. >> these two have never really -- no love lost, but if apple can gather everything and
9:10 am
make some more sense of it, there's just not enough default to the stuff that really works to really understand, and i was trying -- i was trying to, for instance, look up memes at gamestop, apes. it doesn't know anything. none of these know anything about stuff that you -- you still default to going to google, and google means ads, and google means they steer you towards stuff that you don't necessarily want to be steered. i just find that we're at this crossroads where we don't know what to do until it gets smarter. i think jensen huang, and thank you to my kids for a father's day leather jacket which was from circa, like, 2023, when the sym stock. o only worth like a trillion. the next generation will make it like video, and if it's video -- look at him. that jacket has nothing on my jacket. that's the older version. >> now you're getting to an element that people are going to talk a lot more about as we get into earnings in a few weeks, and that is, all right, show us
9:11 am
the money. literally. >> i know. >> people do point to accenture last week, which started to give you clues about gen a.i. service revenue. >> julia boorstin had a great piece. it was dom today. about travel agents and bots. and it was the usual, which is that you can't believe it reads your mind. wait a second, the weather is bad, here's five things you might want to do for dinner. but at the same time, it said that traveling -- there's been no decline in workforce. i keep finding the same thing, which is that whatever it's doing, and we saw that with banking last week, no one seems to be losing their job yet. now, i don't want people to lose their jobs, but i do point out that it's not been functional enough for most businesses. i think that adobe would tell you, when i was speaking to the ceo, it's creating jobs. creating people who can leave their big company, create a new company, and look just like a
9:12 am
big company because of fire fly. >> this is the whole hardware eating software, is salesforce cyclical or structural? >> it's funny you mention salesforce, because that stock has come back, but if you look at it, there you go again with the grant teton. i mean, faber, listen to me. listen to me. it's like, look at that thing. >> we're going to get a lot of western analogs, i can see. >> the second picture i posted was the ultimate head-and-shoulder picture of grand teton, and it was so frightening. >> i thought you were going to make something of the bear that you saw and got on camera. >> the bear was a grizzly. in jersey, we have black bears. nobody's a teddy bear. there we go. see the head and shoulders pattern? what is that, stage left? and you know, that's emma on the right and cc on the left, and the head and shoulders pattern, that's worse than any food
9:13 am
stock. no, i don't know. >> as for the breadth, jim, yardeni wrote about it over the weekend. fund strat tried to push back and did point out that 40 s&p'ers are up 30% for the year. >> i think that you have to see, and you're seeing semiconductor broadening. i think that why are people just allergic to talking about broadcom? we have bytedance, broadcom. that is not competitive with nvidia, people. if you go to hock tan's conference call, he says, we have a great relationship. we love nvidia. but i think that we got to broaden out the semis, but it's that market cap divergence. i mean, this company, broadcom, is very big, but i just keep finding that beyond semis, we do not have a broadening, and that's an issue. we have walmart and lilly. if you try to use those as a
9:14 am
reason why we're broader, i mean, lilly got some news on friday about cpap and sleep apnea, and it's like, i think people are yawning because, like, lilly's just -- it's up, up, up. it's got to stay up. got to have something new every day. whereas broadcom is up 50% for the year, and nobody cares. all anybody cares about is that nvidia must be shot down. the nvidia-cisco in 2000, waiting for that one. next it's going to be nvidia is syy. why not? >> we could have written "the journal" cisco-nvidia piece. >> they left out the grand teton. how could they do that? they knew i was there. >> when we come back, we'll get to boeing. when i when it rains, it pours. we'll get to some calls today on shopify, affirm, carrier, airbnb, ally, humana when we return.
9:15 am
[ inner monologue ] i needed some help. good thing i knew someone... ♪ ♪ or... some-thing. [ a.i. copilot ] glad you called, j. [ a.i. copilot ] it's time for an upgrade. awesome. ♪ ♪ [ inner monologue ] i knew what i had to do. because they never stop. no time to waste. this isn't sci-fi. this is precision ai. ♪ ♪ (traffic noises) (♪♪) the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. (♪♪) at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions,
9:16 am
from our team of mobility experts. because we believe the more ways we all have to move forward. the further we'll all go.
9:17 am
when we're young, we're told anything is possible... ...but only a few of us go out and prove it. witness the greatness of anna hall on a connection worthy of gold: xfinity mobile. only xfinity gives you the most powerful mobile wifi network, with speeds up to a gig in millions of locations. and right now, xfinity internet customers can buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity.
9:18 am
♪ why haven't you resigned? >> senator, i'm sticking this through. i'm proud of having taken the job. i'm proud of our safety record, and i am -- >> you're proud of this safety record? >> i'm proud of our people. >> you're proud of this safety record? >> i'm proud of every action we have taken. >> that's boeing's chief, dave calhoun, facing some scrutiny from senator hawley of missouri last week on the hill. meantime, reuters this morning says that u.s. prosecutors recommend its senior doj officials that criminal charges be brought against boeing after finding the plane maker violated a settlement related to those two fatal max 37 crashes. the doj must decide by july 7th whether to prosecute the jet maker. interestingly, jim, on friday, "the times" said the company was
9:19 am
likely to evade criminal charges. >> it's all very confusing. i would point out to people at home that if you really want to change behavior, you would prosecute the individuals. there is -- i remember this at law school. you were not supposed to sue a company if you were the government, because they didn't do anything. it just meant that the shareholders pay. you go out, and the shareholders are paying already for the legal fees, government goes after boeing, there is no boeing. there's just shareholders. so, i think that calhoun, by taking his stance, is admitting nothing, which therefore makes it much harder to go after an individual. they're not going to do it. they're not going to -- they're just going to try to indict the company. it's a company. who is the company? this is not a bank where if you indict it, it goes under. it's a corporation, and what is the consent decree? like, okay, we're not going to make planes? we're not going to sell planes? we're going to lose money on planes? it makes no sense to go after the company. but that's been the way of the government. the government always just says,
9:20 am
we'll go after the company. there is no company. there's just shareholders. so, i think that this is -- if the government wants to change behavior, there's only one way, and that's to go after people. we saw it in 2008. they don't know how to do it. they don't know how to go after people. i think we all feel, why should we as boeing shareholders pay for the malfeasance, whatever they're going to call it. this was a consent decree after the previous team so there was no choice. >> so, you're more interested in getting out from under the thumb of the faa on production. >> right. >> and finding new leadership, which the "the journal" says is tough call. >> this board is really shameful, okay? this is like a world com board. there was no -- there was not -- there was no chicanery. there was something maybe worse, though. they violated a consent decree. if that's the case, go after the
9:21 am
board. why is the board exempt? the board represents the shareholders. go after the board. go after the board individually and as an entity. but the justice department doesn't seem to know how to do that. >> meantime, jim, we're expecting a record travel weekend on the 4th. the defense business is hiring at levels we haven't seen since the cold war. >> oh my. we had this general dynamic story. general dynamic story saying, listen, we got to make more. we don't know how to do this, make semis. we're relying on turkey? i mean, turkey has actually been -- not been on our side. i don't know. i mean, yes, we're going all-out to become independent, but it can't be done in six months. but we're sure trying. >> we'll talk some more transports as we look forward to fedex later on in the week. we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell. take one more look at the premarket as we kick off this final week of the first half of ayitusar. st wh .
9:22 am
[busy hospital background sounds] this healthcare network uses crowdstrike to defend against cyber attacks and protect patient information. but what if they didn't? [ominous background sounds] this is what it feels like when cyber criminals breach your network. don't risk the health of your business. crowdstrike. we stop breaches.
9:23 am
9:24 am
the concerns persist regarding semis. worries about overstretched positioning, overbought conditions, selling pressure. you can see the laggards here on the ndx include arm, nvidia, qualcomm, and amat. we'll get the opening bell in
9:25 am
about five minutes, and you can catch us any time, anywhere. just listen to and follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast.
9:26 am
(office chatter) is it me...or is work not working? at least, not the way it could work. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? can ai help your people work... without all the workarounds? feel better. make customer service work the way customers expect? that one. make your old tech work with your new tech? thank you. and todd here is wondering, can ai do all that... now? no pressure. it can. on the servicenow platform, ai transforms your entire business.
9:27 am
your people work better, your customers are happier, and todd... well... he's practically euphoric. practically. because when your people work better, everything works better. so what are you waiting for? let's get to work. idris elba works here? mm-hmm. ya, he's super nice.
9:28 am
>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. time for the "mad dash" as jim's returned. >> something to remember in 2015 that u.p.s. went in hard for logistics. there were a series of ads talking about logistics. the key to them was this coyote business they bought, which is a freight broker. it's a software-based company. and they paid $1.8 billion in 2015, and they're selling it for a billion this morning to rxo, which is a very good logistics company, and it's just emblematic of whatever they do, people are kind of thrilled they're not doing what they've been doing, but i remember when this was going to be a key initiative for them, and i mention it because fedex is going to report this week. fedex is going to record a better number than u.p.s. will. it's just a very tough stock to own, and i think that this is one of the reasons why you might have wanted it because of logistics, because that's a
9:29 am
higher multiple, and instead, they get rid of it, and people are excited for today. that will be it. >> hasn't that been sort of carol tomei's m.o., slicing away parts of the business that remove focus? >> well put. and the stock is down 13% in part because of that. but also in part because, look, the economy is slowing. they represent the economy. nvidia doesn't represent the economy. they represent a business that, frankly, can slow down. we know that e-commerce is still doing okay, but we also know that these guys are floundering, u.p.s., and i don't know whether this is the secret or not. it's good to see them have some cash in, but you don't -- a company that buys something for that much money, for $1.8 billion in 2015 and sells it for a billion is a company that still doesn't know what it's doing in my mind. >> transports in general, jim, just had trouble find thaing th way, right? >> how is that possible after what you just said about travel? and the fact that rail car were
9:30 am
up 3% last week. the stock seemed very out of sync unless you believe that the fed is going to stay much tighter for much longer, and then you don't want these stocks. but right now, i feel there are some real values there, given the travel, what we know. >> let's get the opening bell here, and the big board, chip owner and chartering company sfl celebrating its 20th listing anniversary at the nasdaq. it's yy group, a provider of hotel staffing and commercial cleaning services. we're back to 5,460, jim. we did notch, while you were away, our 31st all-time high of the year. >> i don't really care how it got there. i don't. when you -- i saw an asterisk on there. what is it, like, 154 versus 163 season? you can't do that. you can't say, that doesn't count, because a lot of it was on the backs of nvidia. it got there. and by the way, if other stocks
9:31 am
get some of the money that's coming out of nvidia, then we're going to hear, you know what, it turned out that was the broadening. i don't like the questions about how we got there. i think the fact that we got there is very important. >> meantime, we haven't really talked about fed policy. goolsbee was on "squawk" today. we will get pce friday. some of the forecasts are pretty mild, i would guess you could argue. >> yeah. look, i think that we have to get over the idea that anybody is going to be speaking for or against powell. g goolsbee, there was a tense moment with steve liesman where it was basically, stop asking me -- >> hypotheticals. >> right. i understand when you're in a follow-up with a law firm and the law firm is saying, we don't think you should be involved in this, you know, in the under armour suit that cost them an unbelievable amount of settlement, and you're supposed to say, well, hypothetically, let's say i was involved with kevin plank -- no. this is not a court of law, for heaven's sake. i think those conversations
9:32 am
don't give you the clues that you would like, because the fed's dependent on the data, so let's look at the data. right now, there was a very good moment in the discussion. what do you do when you -- every time you raise interest rates, it makes it so that housing prices aren't coming down? i think the main problem with the housing companies is they got so much religion. they understood, look, our focus should be gross margins, and if the gross margins aren't going up, invest it somewhere else. and the toll quarter was amazing. len lennar quarter was not as good because they didn't make as much money. but you go back, there was $2 billion worth of homes bought in the grand teton area in the last year, and 30% were done with cash. just cash. and as jeremy renner said in "wind river," the billionaires are pushing out the millionaires. >> jackson hole, it's happened a lot. >> i was -- i looked at some property just to humor myself,
9:33 am
and you know, it's a two-bedroom for $2 million. two-bedroom for $2 million. you look where it is, and it's outside the teton area. no. i mean, things are crazy out there. and i think that this is the -- this is the have, have-not, that you have 30% of the people paying cash for places that are 1 to $2 million is -- we're a rich country, and then you see that 60% of our people are living paycheck-to-paycheck, and you say, no, we're two countries. and i'm not surprised that isn't being exploilted. >> there is a nice report out of goldman today looking at household wealth. "how healthy are household finances?" they say wealth as a share of income is higher than it was in 2019 across the income distribution. >> that's absolutely true. i think that we have had big wage increases, and we also don't have enough people in our workforce. this is the 1.7 new children,
9:34 am
and you need 2 in order to make it so your country isn't in decline of population. we used to be two. now, 1.7. and i think it's actually impacting -- look, there's also, i think, if you want a job, you get a job. i know that sounds awful for the people who are out of jobs. i don't want to say, hey, what are you guys doing? but we're in a in a moment where if you want to move up, this is when you can move up, unless you're in certain industries where -- and certain age groups. i think this 21 to 26 is having a hard time. they can't catch on, because they are part of the people who are being impacted by a.i. meaning that, well, wait a second, we can't hire those, we may have to fire them. but so far, so good. but i just think that's the group that is struggling. i wish more of them would watch us, because i think what they have to do is they have to take what they have and make some money. they have to put their savings long-term. this is how you can take advantage. you've got your whole life ahead of you. if you make a mistake, it's not going to cost you versus, say, people in their 40s, 50s, 60s.
9:35 am
but i think we're stuck with this ridiculous enterprise software ban, hardware good, and is it's just a revenge of what's gone on for the -- since 2010. >> yeah. we are, of course, trying to look to other sectors as well. media's interesting, jim. amc, these reports they're in talks to reduce their debt load. disney with a -- >> well, they need more disney movies. >> this "inside out 2," one of only seven films to notch $100 million for weekends one and two. >> yeah, well, isn't it incredible? you got -- you have a company that people didn't like because they weren't making the right movies. now they look like they're making the right movies, and the stock is up like 50 cents. we saw a lot when peltz dumped, but we -- anxious to come back in it, because maybe the focus is not going to be on management. it's going to be focused on product. and the product is -- looks like they made some adjustments. this is pixar. in our office this morning, we
9:36 am
were trying to figure out what was the last pixar movie we all went sto? >> there's been a lot of that kind of think piece. >> they're back. this is when, by the way, this is when iger -- i know they're not speaking, but this would be a great time to put out hugh johnson. he's the cfo. his level of credibility is the highest of anyone in the country. this is a great conference call about reminding people what movies mean. now, i'm sure they're saying, well, that's just one. what you have to do is come out and say, look, this is what we do for a living. we create. and that's what you -- you could do that, because he's going to be the cfo before -- he was at pepsico. his credibility is such that even when he told you, listen, carbonated soda drink is on decline, you say, tell me negatives? give me something about frito-lay, and he says, well, the glp -- he can't help himself. he's so honest, so terrific. it's time to put q out. >> it would be good to hear from
9:37 am
those guys. jim, we're going to get bank stress tests, i think, wednesday night. b of a this morning points out, last time, banks kind of traded well. >> yeah. >> even though there's a lot of opacity around the process. >> they have this position in bonds that's not been so great. the stock has been a horse. by the way, the one that the travel trust owns has been just incredible, which is wells fargo. they've really rebuilt it. that's charlie scharf. i think people are always worried about citi. no one's worried about jpmorgan. >> citi with an investor day last week, and banks continue to get talked about as the industry that will leverage a.i. the most to automate in-house functions. >> they're not sure where. i mean, one of the ones that was recommended this morning was first horizon, and that's -- that's brian jordan. he rang the bell a couple weeks ago. sensational. barclay's. he's thinking about it. he's thinking about where you can cut people. there are -- there's multiple
9:38 am
cases, use cases, where it looks like the people are doing the same thing over and over again, and you can just have it with a.i. i also think that a.i., the backlash to a.i. will be it's just not right enough. i know that all the time marc benioff, who will be speaking this week, the ceo of salesforce would tell you you got to be really careful about the, you know, just the totalness, the real big mistakes. doesn't mean that he doesn't want to use a.i., but the company that has been most in on a.i. and enterprise software and has succeeded is servicenow. they've actually embraced jensen huang more than anyone else. and that's bill mcdermott. >> in the financial space as well, jim, ally, citi -- >> how do you like that? >> initiates buy. a firm, goldman, assumes buy 42-42. >> i have not looked at all y
9:39 am
financial since it was spun off. i could not believe it sells at five times earnings. it's worse than four. that's a benchmark. you got to go really low to be worse than four, but they've managed to accomplish that. i don't know how that happened. i'm trying to -- we have an investment meeting on thursday, and i'll explain what a knucklehead i am that i still believe, but i do. i think jim farley's good. i'm not going to back away. but ally's really amazingly cheap. affirm -- remember, apple got out of this buy now, pay later business. it's a really dicey business. but you know, every time i have levchin on, i'm so impressed that the few -- the sheer number of losses that he has. he's just a better lender. max levchin is very good at what he does. i think the stock should be higher. i had him on when the stock was at $33. given the fact it's down 35%, but max is very good at what he does. he's not -- he doesn't suffer
9:40 am
fools gladly. it's like, so, max, tell me, that first quarter, looks like it -- to me, it was pretty good, but i was worried about the loss. yes. >> yes. max is a serious -- >> yeah, i spoke to jensen huang, and i told a joke, and he went right over, and i said, wait a second, that was a joke. and he goes, super funny. laughing on the inside. max laughs on the inside. he sure doesn't laugh on the outside. >> that's true. jim, you mentioned ford. we're about a week out from tesla deliveries. >> oh, how many people can you lay off? >> they normally report on the second day of a new quarter, and i see ubs today does cut expectations, but quarter on quarter, i think they see it up nine. >> yeah, one of the -- what do the other guys have? i think that -- i don't think people want to -- i think people want to buy tesla. imag >> the stock or the car? >> the car, i don't know. i saw the cybertruck. you ever see that? people say, i saw a cybertruck.
9:41 am
okay. no takeaway. hey, f-150. not a competitor. as farley would say, that's a lamborghini. not a lot of people can afford a lamborghini. i think tesla with the layoffs is eventually going to get to a table of employment where it can take off. i know that we keep hearing about chinese evs and what that can do, but our country's protected. we'll go after anybody who tries to bring them in from mexico. this stock is hanging in there. ever since they -- ever since that we decide that elon has a right to his pay package as witnessed by the shareholder. >> yes. >> it's bottomed. i don't know. do i want to buy it? i mean, i want to buy gm more than i want to buy tesla. i think mary barra is doing a great job, and mary barra understands cash flow. she understands, if you stand there and buy your stock back at five times earnings, it's going to be really great. ford does not seem to understand that. but mary barra is the unsung hero. people say, mary barra, what's she doing?
9:42 am
she's crushing it. >> best oem of the year so far. >> she's crushing it. >> jonas said the entire year's gains might just be the buybacks. >> when jonas is definitive, i don't go against him. i'd rather go against the chemical brothers than the jonas brothers. chemical brothers. like alexa should know the chemical brothers. give her a break. >> i'm glad you discovered the chemical brothers. >> poly ethylene. whatever. >> you mentioned buybacks. >> that's been a tough moment. >> people talk about the end of june being weak but the first week of july being the best of the year. >> that summer rally, whatever in may, that has been wrong. typically, it's because we had no more ipos so there's no new supply, but we don't have any ipos. we have no mergers either, for that matter. we don't have anything. >> well, the european ipo market, after golden goose got pulled, that got some chatter
9:43 am
last week. >> then, what, shein wants to do something? do it already, shein. shein is this hidden force. they're like these really secretive secretive scilla and charibdis for our market. i get the wall street bets are wall street gets betts. i get their bulletins in the morning, and well, as jensen huang would say, super funny. laughing on the inside. >> that's a good one. yeah. maybe it's your timing, jim. >> look, i -- you go to reddit -- i have two redditor kids. what do you think about the debate on thursday? it would be, like, well, yeah. i looked it up on reddit. any takeaway? no, it's on reddit. what's it say? >> one of the things that while you were away, jim, were strategists upping their targets for the year, in some cases to
9:44 am
6,000. evercore today, even stifel, which is not constructive, says it might melt up to six. >> we don't want that stuff, and i don't think it's going to happen, and i think we're going to mark some time. we're going to get the quarter soon, for heaven's sake, and let the quarters tell us. obviously, there's a big problem in the market. there's this cohort of 300 to $500 billion, and then there's the trillionaires and we don't have enough in between. if we had more broadcoms at $800 billion, then i think we would say, wait a second, it's all right. i mean, i was trying to describe how the value nvidia this weekend, and you come back and say, listen, apple and microsoft, you have phone company and a company that has a great but very competitive situation with datacenters, with cloud, and those guys are all duking it out, amazon, and we know that you're well, if you're making this bet, you're betting that the magnificent seven is going to do what nvidia did,
9:45 am
which is spike and then roll over. and remember, i'm a big believer in nvidia here. don't get me wrong. but i recognize that people just are betting that the money coming out of those will go right to the rest of the market and therefore will go up or do okay. no. >> you're right. it's a great point. we didn't even really talk about the x data, the split of nvidia. your theory has been that when the splits happen, people sell at least one. >> yes. it was -- now, you have to go back to the '80s. when we used to have these splits where coke and pepsi would split. they would -- this was during that period where all we made were soft drinks and drugs. movies, soft drinks, and drugs, and we were like this despondent second-rate country, and now we have these companies and we still feel like we're second-rate. pepsi would split three for one, and people would sell one and keep two. and that was the pattern, and i
9:46 am
documented that pattern. i used to say, listen, i used to go see accounts, look, pepsi, they would have some sort of sophisticated analysis, and i would say, i'd buy pepsi at $90. why? well, stocks that are $90 go to $100. what happens at $100? well, they go to $120. people would laugh me out of their office, and then suddenly, people realized, i think he's right. we have these incredible runs. but we always had the splits, and they were regarded as buzzkill initially, and then people would reload and say, i can pbuy pepsi for less. i'm not trying to make people sophisticated versus unsophisticated but dollar amount does matter. >> chipotle has been dogged by these avocado cost concerns. >> they come and go. i understand that. chicken wings have been good for wingstop. i think that every time chipotle's been hit, even when it had the terrible health situation, you had to go to it. but i do think that this is one of the classics where there will be people who say, holy cow, i got a lot of chipotle. let me sell some. >> yeah.
9:47 am
elsewhere in the food realm or food and drink, ab inbev. >> i find these tiresome. the travel trust owns constellation, and that's been okay, not great. down six. people feel maybe opportunity, maybe people forget the controversy involving bud light. i do think that the beer stocks are just another part of this cohort of, well, listen, people are not going to drink as much. glp-1 hurting the browns more than the clears, hurting the browns more than -- the whiskey, scotch, more than the agave spirits, which are really doing well. but beer is not -- i think people keep waiting for beer to roll over because of glp-1, but beer is regarded as experiential by the people who are constantly tallying it, and i get that. i do believe that when you have something where you're just waiting and waiting and then lilly gets it and then it's about copd, next thing you know,
9:48 am
stock is down badly, even though mcfarrell is saying, don't worry about it. they're not going to do it because they're doing no alcoholism tests. they don't want to be involved with a comorbidity they can't explain. that's been the hidden secret, which is that people are staying away from alcohol. >> that is interesting. so many ripple effects from one generation. >> look at jack daniel's, one of the worst stocks. >> dow is up 117 as we continue to see this split between the blue chips and the s&p. as for bonds, it is a light data week for the most part, but we will get conference boards, some housing, durables, pce on friday, as well as some treasury auctions this week. twos, fives and sevens. we're at 4.25%. stay with us.
9:49 am
you know what's brilliant? boring. think about it. boring is the unsung catalyst for bold. what straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space? boring does. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. because it's smart, dependable, and steady. all words you want from your bank. for nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled... which is pretty un-boring if you think about it.
9:50 am
ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't
9:51 am
know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.
9:52 am
keep your eye on bitcoin, one of the worst weeks of the year microstrategies opens down about 3.5% we'll get stock strayeding with jim, after a short break
9:53 am
(tony hawk) skating for over 45 years has taken a toll on my body. i take qunol turmeric because it helps with healthy joints and inflammation support. why qunol? it has superior absorption compared to regular turmeric. qunol. the brand i trust. i know you love your dada. of course he loves you, he just doesn't show it on his face. or with his body language. [ cooing ] ♪ sweet child of mine ♪ [ gasps ] dave's company just scored the
9:54 am
comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. high five! high five... -i'm on a call. it's 5 years of reliable, gig speed internet... five years of advanced security... five years of a great rate that won't change. yep, dave's feeling it. yes. but it's only for a limited time. five years? -five years. introducing the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering 5 years of savings. powering possibilities.
9:55 am
let's get to jim. >> good news on pharmaceuticals. they have a drug that works 30% of the time. my wife and i work with columbia hospital, columbia med, like if you get anybody, it's good news, so you see the reaction that it is just rather, it's anything for the people who have a fatal disease. it's great to see. >> there's been a few of these disruptors, like the jpmorgan health -- >> it happened the week before a lot of companies are doing this stuff you hope would happen, a lot of immunotherapy
9:56 am
i think it matters for those who have you had cancer in the last couple years >> it's not ai, just good doctors. it's been encouraging. there's a love the death sentence it is that are now not. companies have been great this year. >> tonight >> i'm going to solve the housing crisis. >> finally >> i'm going to have the housing czar, and we can ask anyone who is peripherally connected with the fed, there's a guy named babbitt? that's in st. louis. fiction ver fact. >> there's been rabbit >> if you want to know the
9:57 am
truth, as they taught me when i covered human cried, the truth is lean fiction. >> good to have you back, jim. we'll see you at 6:00 on "mad money. the s&p going green after a red open, up ten, stay with us municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free. now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least $10,000 to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-376-4376. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income
9:58 am
are federally tax-free and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-376-4376. that's 1-800-376-4376. >> i made a promise to my daughter that i would get my college degree. i had 20 years of experience as an hr professional. i had reached a ceiling, so i enrolled in umgc. umgc removes every barrier. everyone treated me like a person with individual needs and met me where i was. i would not be the person that i am today, the mother, the business owner, had it not been for the partnership with umgc. [ music ]
9:59 am
the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo
10:00 am
good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. david and sara have the morning off. dow is up almost 300, as almost every sector is green, a busy week as we wrap up q 2 a presidential debate and energy leads today. >> we're about 30 minutes into the strayeding session who big health care stocks
10:01 am
moving in opposite directions this morning we'll tell you wee this hour cocoa prices are falling, and under pressure, due to pressure concerns will show that record high prices are hurting demand despite today's sharp drop and take a look at share of nvidia under pressure as the stock's first weekly lost, plus big news involve apple ahead on the shah meantime the s&p 500 is up near willy 15% on the year, as big tech continue to say drive the broader mark there are key risks. mike has been looking at that over the weekend and today. >> for sure, carl. i think you start from the wider angle. it's a bull market, and bull markets up this much tend to
10:02 am
have a bias. so you don't want to say we're up 15%, and we've already capitalized it the issue, though, is the main debates, which might actually be coming to a critical moment. one is on the hype terr concentration of the gains the question is, with inindividual coming off the boil --, the trade may be cooling off, getting to extremes, can we maybe relieve some of those extremes without the overall national getting hit. it's a lot to ask, in my opinion with this seamless rotation, so it's happened before another welcoming element is the average stock hasn't been declining fast they've just been kind of churning, going sideways for a few months defensive sectors the really not
10:03 am
outperforms. the odebate, is the soft landing on track the market -- the economy is dece decelerating the surprise index is getting a lot of attention it is beround zero but is that just a normalization of growth, or is it something we had to work about as the fed basically trying to be as patient as possible. the pce is relative to that. >> it seems like they've been much more focused on the growth side of the market if that reverses, could that be more of of a cath list a cooling off, as you mentioned? >> if we don't get assurance that it's still resilient, intact, yes potentially.
10:04 am
one of yellow flashing light, is they have come in after a reassure way, and yet small caps, cyclicals have not used that as a tail wind. you're on alert for the idea that if people are worries that -- if we get pce assist and the market says september is an odds-on cut. that doesn't necessarily reaccelerate, but it create a buffer to say we're not going to allow weakness to take hold. >> bitcoin, is it a tell >> it's been a great tell to nvidia and the nasdaq in general. it has beenen a tell on inflation or anything else you may be sold as to what bitcoin is for, but tut has shown it has modest leading properties toward the nasdaq 100 since the middle of last year, it's really been step for step,
10:05 am
in, and the beginning of last week, nvidia had a big upside divergence relative to bitcoin it will stop working at some point, but for now, they've got fellow travelers >> that's a good one one of the worst weeks of the year for the decree occurrencie. our next guest did roughly 307 billion in assets. he's stepping down from his role by the end of the month. chris, is this our last chat >> i think so. i would love to come back on, but i'm done on friday as c.i.o. >> congratulations on a phenomenal run i wonder, your view on ending the fiscal year, you think it's nice to go out strong? >> i love michael charts, but
10:06 am
they run on six months i look at the entire year. nvidia, up 188%, which is crazy. so you guys on the weekend had an article about the fact that the market has over a year without a 2% pullback. we're kind of dual for at least some summer doldrums i think we're going to go in for that for a while. >> do you expect volatility to return to the market if so, what could investors being doing about it >> i don't consider 2% a lot of volatility there's a lot of sensitivity to fluctuations in the market i think we could see the market and just flatten off and trade sideways we got way over our skis on the views of nvidia and ai it writes a great paragraph, but it doesn't clean your house or tune your car. we have to be more realize tim about that capable for the
10:07 am
future. >> chris, where does it leave you with regard to how the rest of the markets are reflecting the real economy it seems as if still a willingness we get a soft lajding. it seems like make up argue the top three yields -- where have the bets been laid and will you take either side of those? >> i'm a long-term investor, and i think bonds are your indication to where the markets are going. you've been at this for 25 years. i can't recall a time period where the consumers were so negative, yet gdp was okay and the economy was okay, and the market was bullish something has to give in here. i have to say that consumers seem flat, but they're going out and spending inflation, that cpe on friday is
10:08 am
going to matter, but i really think you showed the wti crude has really been holding in there, coming up stronger. inflation will be sticky not really 4% to a%, but 3 to 4, the fed will hold, and then probably cut in september. i'm going to take my could you from the bond market, and i think we're in good shape here. >> a lot of doves have been watching the job market. we've seen some normalization in supply and demand. obviously claims have gotten interesting. there's still a cohort on the street that says the fed will be surprised by the pace of deterioration in jobs. >> i am not an commission. its so tough to call the job market i would think so we haven't had a lot of wage inflation, so people are feeling the pinch, but i got to tell you, when you ask somebody about
10:09 am
their local economy, they talk about it booming when you ask about the national economy, they think it's lagging, so it's a really strange occurrence i think locally we're in strong shape, the low-end consumer, the dollar general, the walmart consumer, is feeling pinched and having a tough time. i think the fed is playing it right. we're doing okay look at the stock market according to it, we're doing great and the fall will be in strong shape. >> we have a presidential election, snap elections in france coming up can you talk about how you think the calendar when it comes to politics will maneuver investor sentiment? >> it is such a challenge. when you really step back -- and i have looked at three decades worth of presidential elections, red and blue, and it doesn't
10:10 am
necessarily drive the market the first 18 months was a tough time, i don't know if we'll see that again whoever wins will face a huge federal definite session but what we're seeing out of europe is what the u.s. has to pay attention to, a lot of extreme views, a lot of variation, and a lot of minority votes surprising people. this is an amazing year, where such a huge amount of the world's population has voted we're going to look, as long-term nvestors, does democracy stay strong? and what are we doing about climate change and how will we regulate ai? those are the long-term trends i worry about and i think will be meaningful. >> as somebody who professionally has had to focus a lot on long-term -- what would
10:11 am
you do if you could impose tweaks to the government retirement program and say how can we redirect the path of growth of expenses in a more sustainable way? >> well, michael, i'm a big fan of aggregating liabilities and professional -- if we look at whatcanada, as these started t privatize slowly part of their social security. they created a public pension plan, and it's doing phenomenally other countries have started paying it forward. look at australia, new zealand we're constantly pay as you go in these programs. that doesn't work. you have to invest with the miracle of compounding as warren buffett said, is the eighth wonder of the world. for the u.s. to get there, it's a huge change, but professional management in the aggregate
10:12 am
outperforms retail, and aggregating liabilities is good for society. i'm obviously a believe in big large pensions, and i think the government could do better in how they invest the surpalaces when they have them. >> chris, you've been coming on for a long time. i hope we find a way to stay in touch, at least on air torque leverage your wealth and knowledge in the months and years to come. congratulations. >> thank you, carl it's been such an honor. i looked back at 20 years on cnbc i will stay in touch, you bet. >> chris ailman, thanks. some new develops in the new strategy deirdre bossa is here with more. hey, dee >> regulators are charging apple
10:13 am
with failure to apply at the law that takes aim as large firms they look at gatekeepers up app store is accused of now lets developers -- it's preemptive and could fine apple as much as 10% of the worldwide revenue. it under scores this idea that e-regulators have more teeth than their american counterparts last week the company said it will likely not rule out new gen ai features. in a state apple says it made changes to comply with the dma and is confident that their plan complies with it here in america, though, apple is going ahead with the newly veiled strategy. the "wall street journal" reports that apple and meta
10:14 am
somewhere held talks about how to integrate meta's model into apple. they've tension in the past. so is apple opening its ecosystem to more players? it's made a deal to bring chatgpt to apple phones, on the other hand, the journal said it will keep a cut of that. my own takeaway is apple's gen ai strategy is also -- apple is basically telling us users they can pick whichever one works for them, even though they said chatgpt was the best by introducing more, they're kind of saying they're similar they're either similar or not different enough for them to
10:15 am
necessarily commit to one at the outset i guess that races the question as to whether there would be payback in these large language molding for. >> let's talk about that payback, right it costs hundreds of millions to develop these large language models the costs are going to increase or actually decrease you look at a meta with a llama. it costs less than the chatgpts, or the claw from anthropic or goalle geminis, and that reduces anyone who will build on top of those. many investors are vcs, and want to know what kind of return they'll get. will they ever make up the hundreds of millions of costs to develop them, but the billions
10:16 am
for the compute power. >> yep, big names all in play in this whole narrative dee, good stuff. as we go to break. a roadmap for the rest of the hour, with gdp and the fed's favorite inflation read. plus shares of one biotech with 30% this morning, we'll tell you all about it. >> a look at the most erout ov-bghstock. a big show ahead "squawk on the street" is back after this quick break don't go away.
10:17 am
dave's company just scored the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. high five! high five... -i'm on a call. it's 5 years of reliable, gig speed internet... five years of advanced security... five years of a great rate that won't change. yep, dave's feeling it. yes. but it's only for a limited time. five years? -five years. introducing the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering 5 years of savings. powering possibilities.
10:18 am
10:19 am
the company says the predictive has led to increased engagement teladoc shows a 3x increase in engagement, with a reduce of more personalized health nudges the fed president making
10:20 am
a -- in part, because raids are historically high. >> it's worth wonder where we are on our restrictiveness scale. >> goolsbee added he expect housing inflation, and that could help to go back on track if we get more months, coupled
10:21 am
with slowing conditions, then you would have to start questioning, should we remain as restrictive as we've been? >> the chicago fed president's reasonably well with market expectations there's a small chants for one in union, and then we're trading with a 77% probably of a second cut. goolsbee said, despite the election, the fed would not hesitate to cut if the data backed it up we get three more before the september meeting, ui, as said by goolsbee, is unxwlomt insurance claims that's one of the big data points this week if it trends up, it will continue to race more concerns >> you suggests that goolsbee's comments don't necessarily change the center of gravity
10:22 am
how high done the threshold is on how positive the inflation numbers have to be before september? >> mike, let me be more details. i think ghouls by is a little dovish i think the market is dovish, so goolsbee is aligning with the market i think there's other fed officials who sound a bit more haw hawkish. it's not dovish like it's cut down. >> sure. >> but i think friday is an interesting day, mike, because, you got to go from 2.8 to 2.6, and we'll see which side, does it round up that way or not? you can't imagine, if you got another good inflation report for the month of june several days before the july meeting,
10:23 am
you could see a chorus, maybe, hey, what are you waiting for? >> steve, thanks. our next guest said she would start cutting rates next month. former fed economist, claudia sohm, she joins us now claudia, great to have you the fed has been on hold for rates, implicitly suggesting as thought the cost of patience is pretty low you're arguing that seems to be changing right now >> absolutely. they have looked for the luxury of time to get more data we would all like more data to know that things are going better unfortunately over that period of time, the labor market has moderated.
10:24 am
they don't have the same place of strength. they are not changing their story or logic, which in a risk management sense, should change eyebrows even as we get good data >> yeah, i get -- you're saying risks are rising, i suppose the weakest in the labor market will reach that threshold that suggests there's further up side >> correct really the argument at its core to begin cutting rates is we have had made stanch at progress we're talking about a first rate cut, a graduate cut, a managed cud. the fed has amped up the bar to a place where in itself is
10:25 am
risky, thinking so hard about the first rate cut i'm not suggesting 200 basis points at the next meeting, i'm not suggesting that you but we're well on the way, and the fed needs to balance the two. >> claudia, how much are you paying attention to the neutral rae, where they neither stimulate or slow the economic there's a school of thought that believes it's actually much higher should we expect fewer rate cuts than we're used to >> we need to focus on the immediate decisions, right as i said, i don't want to make any precommitment.
10:26 am
you use need to know the neutral rate to do that. we don't know that, and we are ekeing comfortably, the credit stresses, that we are well from a neutral place where the fed is having no effect, so -- i'm sorry, no effect on the economy. we don't need that neutral rate decisions. we need the discussion about where we are headed the next year, next two years i think the long run is less informative to what people would like that discussion to be >> it will always a vaporous kind of concept. steve was talking about the focus on weekly unemployment claims i guess you're suggesting that, you know, essentially there's not much chance we reaccelerate.
10:27 am
what are you most acutely focused on >> i actually agree with steve i should be on the labor market in terms of the risk to the other side hear, unemploy insurance claims, you know, the unemployment rate not the low. it is very low, but it has drifted up that can often by a sign we are moving towards, and sometimes that's when we're in the recession. the turning points in the labor market can be pretty subtle. we need to pay attention once that goes, you break that cycle between the consumer and the worker mplgts we should keep going into the expansion, so you're looking for some pretty
10:28 am
subtle clues pay attention to the changes, right? where things start to fall off of what have been some very strong readings in the past year, two years. >> it's a great reminder claudia, we appreciate your time this morning thank you. >> thank you. still to come this morning, two biotech names moving double digits and bitcoin hitting the lowest levels in a moment what investors need to keep in mind, after a short break. this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo
10:29 am
we really don't want people to think of feeding food like ours is spoiling their dogs.
10:30 am
good, real food is simple. it looks like food, it smells like food, it's what dogs are supposed to be eating. no living being should ever eat processed food for every single meal of their life. it's amazing to me how many people write in about their dogs changing for the better. the farmer's dog is just our way to help people take care of them. ♪
10:31 am
bitcoin tumbling toward 61k, adding to steep losses the coin currently hovering around the lowest level in about a month. digital asset products are seeing big selling, notching a second consecutive week of outflows, and lowest trading volumes since they were launch back the in january. microstrategy, coinbase, marathon digital, all down between 1 to 4% today.
10:32 am
some big movers in the biopharma space as well. let's get to anjelica peebles on these. >> good morning, mike. they have a drug for heart failure. that should be enough to get the drug approved, and help alnylam get approval bridge bio is down, another name we're watching this morning is resmed an eli lilly showed promise for a sleep apnea drug it makes the cpap machines also.
10:33 am
it is important to know that this trial looked only at people with obesity at this point, the drug wouldn't be used moor broadly >> thank you for bringing us the highlights time now for a news update with bertha coombs. the supreme court announced it's taking up the issue of transgender rights, agreeing to hear a biden administration appeal looking to block stale bans on gender-affirming care. this involves a tennessee law that restricts puberty blockers and hormone therapy. benjamin netanyahu says the intensive phase of fighting in gaza will end soon, and that will allow a shift in focus to the conflict with hezbollah on
10:34 am
the northern border with lebanon. he also said he would only accept a partial cease-fire that would not end the war, appearing to move further away from a truce. nearly three months after crashing into the key bridge in baltimore, "dolly" level port headed for virginia. the ship moved out this morning, heading for the port of norfolk with the remaining containers will be removed and additional repairs will be completed. i wonder what has been on that ship for so long now back over to you. >> bertha, thank you. after the break, nvidia coming off it's -- are there cracks in the armor here we'll discuss after a quick break. badge in a moment. [crowd chanting] they ignored your potential, and mocked your ambition.
10:35 am
but it's not the critic who counts. with every swing and block, your game plan never changed. ♪♪ some still call it luck. let them. because you know what it's always been. inevitable. ♪♪ ♪♪
10:36 am
10:37 am
10:38 am
welcome back to "squawk on the street." tech the only sector down this monday morning, with nvidia under pressure once again after the stock's first weekly loss in nine let's talk more about the market concentration and where the opportunities are. rob arnaut joins us now. some say this extreme concentration is indicative of a bubble what do you see about that and if it is a bubble, should investors be buying into it right now? >> firstly, yes, i think it is a bubble bubbles don't mean that companies like nvidia are bad companies about to blow up this ai revolution is very, very real you can get markets ahead of themselves if you lock at the tech bubble,
10:39 am
take the ten largest market cap tech stocks in the year 2000, and ask the question how many bea the s&p over the next 15 years? zero now one, microsoft beat about 1.5% a year. it's not a matter that this isn't a real refusal lose, but the market pricing gets ahead of the palace able we'llity with nvidia, you have a company on the latest quarterly revenuings is producing $1 brill onrevenue, and producing $60 billion annual run rate profits. it's priced at over $3 trillion. that means over 30 times revenues, and over 50 times profit now, does that mean the profits can't go up from here? of course not, but they can also go down.
10:40 am
nvidia's most recent fiscal year, revenue more than doubled. previous year, revenue were flat, and profits fell over 50%. so, do we really think that taiwan semi and intel and amd are going to sit on their hands and let this company dominate the super-chip market forever? or do we think competitors will play catch-up, and squeeze the markets? of course that happens it happens every time with every tech revolution. you wouldn't be using a pullback necessarily to get in here, for those who haven't been in trailing the market as a result. what would you do as an investor, if you were looking at the market concentration, the potential of a bubble. is this just a wait and see?
10:41 am
>> oh, no. this is the time to begin averaging ute. people talk about averaging in to buy dips, you can also sell spikes over the last ten years, the top ten market cap stocks went from being 17% of the top 500 of the s&p 500 to being 37%, more than doubled. what about the concentration at the business level, the ten largest businesses in the s&p measured on sales went from being 15% of the s&p 500 sales to being 19% so the concentration levels are very, very different when it comes to big businesses getting more concentrated and market cap becoming massively more concentrated that's dangerous it's a wonderful time to begame
10:42 am
averaging into value value is cheap, meg usual relatively valuation it's 8 to 1. historic norm is 4 to 1. the value would have to double in order to get back to historic norms of relatively valuation. i look at this as a wonderful opportunity, third opportunity in the last four years to top up value if you're underexposed to valid. rob, i wonder, if you say value looks very cheap on a relative barracks and that allows you to essentially get that benefit of the extreme valuation perhaps in growth and the fact that growth is so outperformed, so it seems like there are all of these kind of dynamics that looks like very lopsided right now, and you can place a mean reverse, do you think value as you define is is
10:43 am
priced for absolute returns? >> in you u.s., i think it's priced for good absolute returns. outside the u.s., i think it's priced for great u.s. returns. the u.s. is the most expensive major market in the world. it deserves to be, but u.s. versus european value multiple are 2 to 1 u.s. versus emerging markets are almost 2 1/2 to 1. when it comes to value, fundamental index, the idea we pioneered back in 2004 -- there's etfs available -- has outperformed the value indexes in 15 out of last 17 years, but over 4,000 basis points, winning by an average of 2.5% a year, with only 2% variability
10:44 am
but, the more important decision i think right now this is a great time to enter in if you're overexposed to tech, this is a great time to take some gains, and basically let the house money run, but take your initial investments out. >> so perhaps a time to be paying more attention to factors than sectors rob, thank you appreciate it. >> thanks. meantime, as we go to break. some of the biggest laggards on the s&p. you'll see a lot of tech in there. nvidia qualcomm. the dow is up 400 points, highest level since may 23rd still hayes the overbought stocks list may surprise you that's when we come back with the majority of the team identifying as lbgtq, it
10:45 am
allows our company culture to thrive i'm so honored to be a leader in this area, to create opportunities and environments where the queer community can be embraced and celebrated.
10:46 am
10:47 am
is it me... or is work not working? at least, not the way it could work. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? it can. on the servicenow platform, ai transforms your entire business. because when your people work better, everything works better. so, let's get to work. idris elba works here? mm-hmm. ya, he's super nice.
10:48 am
welcome back the second quarter is on pace for gains. hey, dom >> when we look at the market does get overbought or oversold, some people look at moving averages, how far we are away from them. other people look at instruments like oscillators, technical
10:49 am
indicators on the charges that show relative strength versus weakness for the s&p 500, on a 200-day rolling average and 50-day basis, we are solid by above both those levels. one indicator is the rsi it basically just looks at how a stock does on good days versus on bad days. if you look at those, the team at cnbc pro took a look at some of the names with the most overbought indicator microsoft is one of those that has a hsi above 70 today enter today ace trade. they're up 19% to day. microsoft the key one there. another one to keep a close eye, eli lilly, one of the biggest, if not the biggest drug exile in the world at this point. again, above its averages, and
10:50 am
then the s&p 500 stock that has the highest rsi, or you can look at it as the most overbought stock is actually in retail. this is the parent companies of t.j. max, an among some of the names there. keep an eye on those particular stocks mike, by the way, on the flip side of that coin, we looked at some of the most oversold ones as well. you can go to cnbc.com/pro where subscribers get full access to details and analysis and the stock screening tool we use to get these numbers. back over to you. >> timely as we look for reversion to the mean in this market. after the break, a look at how a.i. is disrupting the travel industry and the names already taking advantage don't go away.
10:51 am
at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today.
10:52 am
tamra, izzy and emma... they respond to emails with phone-calls... and they don't "circle back" they're already there. they wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clickety- clacking... clickety-clackier. but no one loves logistics as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy and emma. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. when we're young, we're told anything is possible... ...but only a few of us tha go out and prove it.am.
10:53 am
witness the greatness of anna hall on a connection worthy of gold: xfinity mobile. only xfinity gives you the most powerful mobile wifi network, with speeds up to a gig in millions of locations. and right now, xfinity internet customers can buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity.
10:54 am
welcome back to "squawk on the street." the summer travel season is under way but with one key change for consumers that's the rise of a.i let's get to julia boorstin with that story julia? >> leslie, for the latest installment of our series a.i. impact, a look at how a.i. is transforming a range of industries, i put the latest a.i. travel tools to the test. i'm here on vacation in hawaii and i used a.i. to help plan my trip a.i. is playing the role of travel agent with a range of new tools using the cutting edge technology to offer customized recommendations. before i left i logged into mindtrip a.i. which uses itineraries based on your profiles, with reviews from google and price line. you can ask for recommendations, add plans to your trip, read reviews and share your bookings with friends and family. and when i was there, it was
10:55 am
helpful to pull up addresses and finds restaurants nearby >> if you use chatgpt today, you still have to go and google everything you still have to look at all the different places that it recommends, and what we're trying to do is make all that happen like a travel agent would have done 20 years ago do all that work for you and use the a.i. to actually take all the effort out of that >> it's not just startups. we're seeing the travel giants invest in generative a.i. tools as well. the two biggest booking platforms both introduced a.i.-power chad bot assistants airbnb bought an a.i. startup in november called game planner ceo brian chesky says generative a.i. will radically change the platform and he wants to use it as a travel concierge that learns about users over time google is also moving into this
10:56 am
space. the end result is a personalized vacation plan presented in gemini's new dynamic ui. it can research flight times and offer hotel booking options to create a custom multi-day vacation itinerary in a matter of seconds we haven't yet seen these digital tools impact travel agents job as recently as december, 40% of travelers surveyed say they still use travel agents. the next generation of a.i. tools will be able to help travelers when they're on the ground imagine an app that will make specific recommendations based on exactly where you're standing or give you the history of exactly what you're looking at back over to you. >> i'm curious if this has had any impact on the pricing of travel >> not yet right now these tools are more about planning itineraries they might be able to help people find locations or find hotels more cost effective or in the price range they're looking
10:57 am
for. we haven't seen it have any meaningful impact yet. >> pretty interestingly, julia maybe next time we'll talk about privacy, whether consumers push back on disclosing too much information. that's great stuff that's our july gentleman boorstin. meantime, dow gains almost 400 points, about 1% close to a one-month high. tetht movers" starts righ afr is you know what's brilliant? boring. think about it. boring is the unsung catalyst for bold. what straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space? boring does. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. because it's smart, dependable, and steady. all words you want from your bank. for nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled... which is pretty un-boring if you think about it. i can't believe you corporate types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday.
10:58 am
thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one.
10:59 am
(♪♪) iconic brands speak for themselves. we are so excited to welcome you to our community. today is all about you. (♪♪) (♪♪)
11:00 am
good monday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker here on the floor of the new york stock exchange. today, head of fidelity investments jurrien timmer rxo ceo drew wilkerson later on, the ceo of first data, brian tierney. this historic heat wave across the country and a.i.'s impact on utility companies. stocks this hour, dow the standout, up about a percentage point. s&p up 0.3%. the nasdaq, the laggard of the three major indexes, down about 0.3% with info tech and consumer discretionary as some of the lagging sector

78 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on